WEBVTT - China’s Tech Grip Threatens India’s Manufacturing Ambitions

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Last year, India's largest company, Reliance Industries, quietly sent hundreds

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<v Speaker 2>of executives and engineers to China. They fanned out across

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<v Speaker 2>industrial hubs on the mainland, including Shinzen and Wushi. They

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<v Speaker 2>were in a race against time. China was about to

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<v Speaker 2>restrict exports of a range of vital technologies, and Reliance

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<v Speaker 2>needed to secure critical equipment and tech to build a

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<v Speaker 2>massive battery factory back home. The employees had just over

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<v Speaker 2>a month to pull it off before those export controls

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<v Speaker 2>were supposed to kick in.

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<v Speaker 3>And what they're trying to do is just make sure

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<v Speaker 3>that the machines they need are first manufactured in time,

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<v Speaker 3>and once they're manufactured, that they actually passed customs and

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<v Speaker 3>they're put on ships and they are moving towards India.

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<v Speaker 2>Alicia Sachdev is Bloomberg's business reporter based in New Delhi.

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<v Speaker 2>She says a race to secure these machines was just

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<v Speaker 2>one piece of the puzzle.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, then now after is something beyond equipment. They need

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<v Speaker 3>access to the know how that makes those machines actually work.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's where Reliance is really stuck now, is to

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<v Speaker 3>really be able to have access to technology even though

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<v Speaker 3>it has the machinery.

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<v Speaker 2>Reliance needs both the equipment and the know how expertise

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<v Speaker 2>that China dominates in the field. The problem is China

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<v Speaker 2>has no plans to share any of it.

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<v Speaker 3>In minutes, so we've got some announcements from China.

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<v Speaker 2>They're looking to implement export controls on rress items and

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<v Speaker 2>also ones that are related to tech.

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<v Speaker 3>China wants to really ring fence the dominance that it's

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<v Speaker 3>built over the last decade. It does not really want

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<v Speaker 3>to lose its edge that it's built painstakingly in manufacturing sectors.

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<v Speaker 3>And for Indian companies which have ambitions to build out

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<v Speaker 3>battery plants for example, time is off.

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<v Speaker 2>The essence the struggle of Reliance and India's back battery industry,

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<v Speaker 2>it's just one piece of a much bigger story. India

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<v Speaker 2>has set an ambitious goal to become a global manufacturing powerhouse,

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<v Speaker 2>an alternative to China.

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<v Speaker 4>Your line Custer Make in India.

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<v Speaker 2>Back in twenty fourteen, Prime Minister and re Render Modi

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<v Speaker 2>launched the Make an India initiative. It promised to grow

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<v Speaker 2>the country's manufacturing sector and create millions of jobs, and

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<v Speaker 2>yet even after billions were invested under the initiative, India's

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<v Speaker 2>manufacturing in critical sectors is now even more dependent on China.

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<v Speaker 3>What the Reliance example really has shown us is that

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<v Speaker 3>in key up and coming sectors like batteries, like sophisticated

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<v Speaker 3>electronics manufacturing, China really holds all the choke points, whether

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<v Speaker 3>it's the supply of fraw materials, whether it's critical machinery,

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<v Speaker 3>whether it's the technology and know how, all of that

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<v Speaker 3>sits concentrated in China.

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<v Speaker 2>In the end, thanks to the fast war of its team,

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<v Speaker 2>Reliance managed to secure more than a billion dollars worth

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<v Speaker 2>of equipment. But Reliance is India's biggest company. Other firms

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<v Speaker 2>haven't been so lucky.

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<v Speaker 3>We are kind of in this race with our hands

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<v Speaker 3>teined behind our backs. The US, for example, which has

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of tech expertise, China, which has manufacturing expertise.

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<v Speaker 3>In India, we kind of have neither at this point

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<v Speaker 3>in time when it comes to these advanced sectors. So

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<v Speaker 3>that's really where our dependence on China kind of holds

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<v Speaker 3>us back.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Big Take Asia from Homemberg News. I'm Wanha.

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<v Speaker 2>Every week we take you inside some of the world's

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<v Speaker 2>biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons, and

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<v Speaker 2>businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today, in the

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<v Speaker 2>show India's Manufacturing Dream and Why I Can't achieve it

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<v Speaker 2>without China, we look at how corporate India is navigating

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<v Speaker 2>a complex geopolitical landscape as it searches for alternatives. The

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<v Speaker 2>factory Reliance is building sits in Jamnagar, a city on

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<v Speaker 2>India's west coast. Mukesh and Bani Reliance, as chairman and

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<v Speaker 2>Asia's richest man, has a bold vision for this place.

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<v Speaker 2>His company is building a sprawling battery plant here the

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<v Speaker 2>foundation of Ambani's green revolution. Here's Ambani's youngest son, Anant

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<v Speaker 2>Reliance as executive director, talking about it.

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<v Speaker 4>It will be unmatched globally in size, scale and integration.

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<v Speaker 4>Five million manners of engineering, forty four million square feet

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<v Speaker 4>of building area, equivalent to four times the size of

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<v Speaker 4>the Tesla Giga factory.

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<v Speaker 3>They say this would be capable of producing everything from

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<v Speaker 3>solar panels to litha min cells and then trees for

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<v Speaker 3>energy storage, even green hydrogen and fuel cells.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Alisha Satchdev says this vast renewable energy complex is

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<v Speaker 2>an ambitious plan, but reliance is running up against a

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<v Speaker 2>problem as old as global industry itself. Technology transfer.

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<v Speaker 3>Quite simply, technology transfer is when a company or when

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<v Speaker 3>an entity shares the knowledge and the know how needed

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<v Speaker 3>to manufacture something. So it's not just machines, but the processes,

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<v Speaker 3>the training, the operational ecosystems.

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<v Speaker 2>China understands this well. Back in the nineteen nineties and

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<v Speaker 2>two thousands, it used mandatory joint ventures as a way

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<v Speaker 2>to learn from foreign companies in key industries. It required US,

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<v Speaker 2>European and Japanese firms to share their technology in exchange

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<v Speaker 2>for access to the Chinese market. Over time, those partnerships

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<v Speaker 2>help Chinese companies absorb, refine, and eventually master know how

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<v Speaker 2>in industry like cars, rare earths and batteries.

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<v Speaker 3>In cold light of day, the supply chain for battery

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<v Speaker 3>cells sits entirely in China, whether it's raw materials from

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<v Speaker 3>lithium to cobald to the technology that of course you

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<v Speaker 3>need to make the cells, to the equipment and the

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<v Speaker 3>tooling you need to make the cells also. So that's

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<v Speaker 3>the kind of dependence that we're looking at. And there

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<v Speaker 3>has been this trajectory of China curbing the transfer of technology.

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<v Speaker 2>In October, China timed export controls on some parts of

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<v Speaker 2>the battery supply chain. Some lithium ion batteries can't leave

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<v Speaker 2>the country without government approval. These curbs grew out of

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<v Speaker 2>the tear for war with the US. China has since

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<v Speaker 2>paused its ban on exports of rare earths and other

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<v Speaker 2>critical materials as part of a broader effort to ease

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<v Speaker 2>trade tensions, but still India continues to be largely cut off. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>none of these measures were aimed specifically at India, but

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<v Speaker 2>Alicia says that the spillover has hit India especially hard

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<v Speaker 2>and in many ways the country has emerged as one

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<v Speaker 2>of the biggest losers.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's because while other manufacturing rivals, like in Japan

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<v Speaker 3>or South Korea, for instance, already have some kind of

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<v Speaker 3>leg up in manufacturing tech, India is beginning a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of these industries from scratch, and therefore time is off.

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<v Speaker 3>The essence, the more difficulties we face in actually accessing

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<v Speaker 3>this technology, the gap will keep on widening and it

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<v Speaker 3>will become harder for US to catch up.

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<v Speaker 2>India has set an ambitious goal for advanced battery cell manufacturing.

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<v Speaker 2>Over the next five years, Indian companies plan to build

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<v Speaker 2>a combined one hundred and seventy eight gigawa hours of capacity.

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<v Speaker 2>That's enough to fully charge nearly three million teslas or

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<v Speaker 2>to power around seventeen thousand American homes for a year.

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<v Speaker 2>But Alicia says it's a very distant goal.

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<v Speaker 3>So out of that one seventy eight gigawat that has

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<v Speaker 3>been announced in India, what we do have at present

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<v Speaker 3>is only one gigaward hour, So it's such a small

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<v Speaker 3>fraction of the ambition that India has outlined for itself.

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<v Speaker 3>Almost all the electric vehicles that are sold in India,

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<v Speaker 3>and there are millions of them every year, almost all

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<v Speaker 3>of them bank entirely on important battery cells.

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<v Speaker 2>And beyond batteries, Alicia, where else does China hold kind

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<v Speaker 2>of this strategic squeeze that we've been talking about, well.

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<v Speaker 3>Pretty much all of the core industries that India is

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<v Speaker 3>looking to develop at this point in time. We can

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<v Speaker 3>take a clue from earlier this year. On February one,

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<v Speaker 3>India's Finance Minister and Malassi that I am and delivered

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<v Speaker 3>a speech in the Parliament.

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<v Speaker 4>Scaling up manufacturing in seven strategic and frontier sectors.

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<v Speaker 3>She highlighted seven high tech areas that will form the

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<v Speaker 3>frontier of its manufacturing led growth model. These would include

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<v Speaker 3>advanced chemistry, cells, semiconductors, renewable energy, official intelligence, biotech, space

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<v Speaker 3>tech and defense manufacturing.

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<v Speaker 2>Take semiconductors for example, it's become a big focus for

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<v Speaker 2>the Indian government. The country has committed billions of dollars

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<v Speaker 2>in incentives and subsidies to kickstart chip making plants. The

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<v Speaker 2>problem is it can't do it alone.

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<v Speaker 3>One example that again illustrates the extent of our dependence

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<v Speaker 3>is the Tata Group's advanced chip manufacturing plant in Hulera

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<v Speaker 3>in the western Indian state of good Shad. This will,

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<v Speaker 3>by the way, be the first and the biggest fab

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<v Speaker 3>that India will have in the country, and that itself

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<v Speaker 3>remains dependent on Chinese raw materials like gallium and high

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<v Speaker 3>purity silicon, at least in its initial years. Another area

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<v Speaker 3>where China really dominates in tech is electronics and electronics components.

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<v Speaker 3>So the one big success to all the India has

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<v Speaker 3>had is with Apple. Now, India makes about a quarter

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<v Speaker 3>of Apples iPhones globally, But when you look at what

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<v Speaker 3>India is actually making. We're largely a st the iPhones

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<v Speaker 3>and much of the higher value components in the bill

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<v Speaker 3>of materials that go into that assembly, and all the

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<v Speaker 3>specialized production equipment still traces back to Chinese supply chains.

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<v Speaker 2>Alicia says it's not that China refuses to share technology altogether.

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<v Speaker 3>China does not quite mind sharing technology which is several

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<v Speaker 3>generations behind what it's already pioneering. So that's the kind

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<v Speaker 3>of access that it is okay to give. It's not

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<v Speaker 3>like a blanket man on sharing all kinds of technologies,

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<v Speaker 3>but the really sophisticated tech is something that it does

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<v Speaker 3>want to keep close to home.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a serious roadblock for Prime Minister and arendom Modi,

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<v Speaker 2>who wants to boost manufacturing to make up a quarter

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<v Speaker 2>of India's GDP, but instead of climbing, manufacturer has been

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<v Speaker 2>falling down to just thirteen percent. In twenty twenty four,

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<v Speaker 2>coming up how corporate India is trying to work with

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<v Speaker 2>and around China and what time may be running out.

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<v Speaker 2>The relationship between India and China has never been easy.

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<v Speaker 2>The two countries share a long contested border and a

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<v Speaker 2>history of clashes that continues to shape their mistrust. Today,

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<v Speaker 2>trade between them has grown, and while India has come

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<v Speaker 2>to see China as a vital partner in the region,

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<v Speaker 2>it also regards it as a strategic rival. Bloomberg's Alicia

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<v Speaker 2>Sachdev says that tensions still guide New Delhi's policies.

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<v Speaker 3>Even smaller things like sourcing windshields or like glass parts

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<v Speaker 3>from China. India will impose quality control orders on which

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<v Speaker 3>you know justifiably so because these are parts that can

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<v Speaker 3>be sourced out of India, but companies would prefer to

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<v Speaker 3>buy them from China because of the lower costs. For

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<v Speaker 3>many China Chinese businesses, India is a very lucrative, large

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<v Speaker 3>market for end products. Investing in or accessing the Indian

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<v Speaker 3>market is not exactly something that India has made very

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<v Speaker 3>easy for those businesses. Even something like obtaining visas for

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<v Speaker 3>its citizens is quite hard for the Chinese. At this

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<v Speaker 3>point in time, India hasn't granted weisa to the top

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<v Speaker 3>byd India executive to come and visit India. So it's

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<v Speaker 3>been over five or six years that they've been able

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<v Speaker 3>to even come and see their factories in the south

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<v Speaker 3>of India. So that's the kind of impediment that we're

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<v Speaker 3>really talking about.

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<v Speaker 1>Alicia, I want to ask you something that may seem

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<v Speaker 1>a little obvious, but the Indian government set these ambitious

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<v Speaker 1>goals for high tech manufacturing capacity, right, didn't they realize

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<v Speaker 1>from the outset that they'd need Chinese expertise to reach

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<v Speaker 1>those targets.

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<v Speaker 3>So when India was really just about beginning it's making

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<v Speaker 3>India initiative and formulating these various productions linked incentive programs

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<v Speaker 3>for core industries, I believe it started off with more

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<v Speaker 3>optimism than was possibly warranted at the time. And at

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<v Speaker 3>that time, perhaps what India did not quite fully anticipate

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<v Speaker 3>is that these export controls that China has embugged on

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<v Speaker 3>now wouldn't fold the way they have. Technology was never

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<v Speaker 3>going to be very easy to get, but that had

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<v Speaker 3>really been the order of business for many years.

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<v Speaker 2>In recent weeks, India has eased restrictions on some Chinese

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<v Speaker 2>investment for the first time in nearly six years. Companies

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<v Speaker 2>where Chinese owners hold stakes of ten percent or less

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<v Speaker 2>will now qualify to receive automatic regulatory approval. The hope

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<v Speaker 2>is that this will help boost local manufacturing and possibly

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<v Speaker 2>create space for the technology transfer India badly needs, but

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<v Speaker 2>the door is only partly open. Much of the Indian

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<v Speaker 2>economy remains off limits and only certain types of Chinese

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<v Speaker 2>companies need apply.

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<v Speaker 3>If you look at an auto sector, for instance, where

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<v Speaker 3>India has a thriving local industry which can be disrupted

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<v Speaker 3>by giants like BYD, it is far more skeptical and

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<v Speaker 3>it has actually rejected proposals for investments from a bid

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<v Speaker 3>from a Great Wall Motor. So there is deep strategic

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<v Speaker 3>mistrust between the two countries and that really keeps both

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<v Speaker 3>of them sort of, you know, walking on eggshells around

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<v Speaker 3>each other.

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<v Speaker 2>In the meantime, Alicia says there are other options for

0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:34.680
<v Speaker 2>technology transfer from countries like South Korea, Japan and the West,

0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:36.880
<v Speaker 2>but they come with big trade offs.

0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:40.360
<v Speaker 3>If you go to a South Korea, which Mawny companies

0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:43.320
<v Speaker 3>in India do currently source from, they come at about

0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:46.800
<v Speaker 3>a twenty twenty five percent higher cost than China. That

0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:50.600
<v Speaker 3>is also technology which may not be very suitable to

0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:53.520
<v Speaker 3>the Indian condition. If we're talking about NMC cells or

0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:56.840
<v Speaker 3>nickel manganese co ball cells, these are very high energy

0:14:57.280 --> 0:15:01.600
<v Speaker 3>efficiency and with temperatures soaring in there's always a risk

0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:05.800
<v Speaker 3>of thermal runway incidents, particularly in electric vehicles. So the

0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:09.040
<v Speaker 3>suitability of tech is one aspect, the scalability of tech

0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:11.200
<v Speaker 3>is another aspect, and of course while it all comes

0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:15.000
<v Speaker 3>down too is cost because we are a very highly

0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:18.080
<v Speaker 3>priced and malue conscious market too. And all of those

0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:19.320
<v Speaker 3>things point us back to China.

0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:24.080
<v Speaker 2>For now, Indian corporates have developed an approach to work

0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:28.280
<v Speaker 2>with and around China, flying low on the government radar

0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:30.440
<v Speaker 2>and operating in the gray area.

0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:33.520
<v Speaker 3>One thing that we've actually seen happens a lot these

0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:37.560
<v Speaker 3>days is that deals between Indian and Chinese companies take

0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:41.720
<v Speaker 3>place in third countries. So companies would largely just avoid

0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:44.680
<v Speaker 3>large red flags by meeting in third countries like a

0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:47.400
<v Speaker 3>Singapore in Sri Lanka or Hong Kong or even Thighland

0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:49.880
<v Speaker 3>to conduct their business to get around the difficulty of

0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:55.480
<v Speaker 3>obtaining visas. What's also taking place is that sometimes you

0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:58.440
<v Speaker 3>don't want to appear very high profile in your procurement

0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:01.800
<v Speaker 3>out of China, so large companies will really bank on

0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:06.640
<v Speaker 3>very small suppliers to go the small shipment route. And

0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:09.200
<v Speaker 3>then of course the last thing is that they are

0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:12.040
<v Speaker 3>able to lobby the government that working with China is

0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:15.200
<v Speaker 3>really and imperative it's not something that you can close

0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:18.720
<v Speaker 3>your eyes to. So as a result of those negotiations,

0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:22.440
<v Speaker 3>companies have been able to actually secure some amendments to

0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:26.400
<v Speaker 3>the very harsh investment screening criterias that India had put

0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:29.760
<v Speaker 3>in place five or six years ago. So a bunch

0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:33.800
<v Speaker 3>of workarounds are enabling that business sort of lusk continue

0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:37.000
<v Speaker 3>to happen even in these sort of really fraud times.

0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:42.280
<v Speaker 2>And are these workarounds, I mean, are they the key

0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:45.119
<v Speaker 2>to really solve India's China problem.

0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:48.920
<v Speaker 3>The workarounds do help, but they don't fully solve the

0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.920
<v Speaker 3>extent of the problem that we are seeing because large

0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:54.800
<v Speaker 3>scale manufacturing, in the kind of large scale tech transfer

0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:57.560
<v Speaker 3>that we're talking about cannot be on the point, remain

0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:01.760
<v Speaker 3>low profile. And the binder is really that Chinese companies

0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:04.679
<v Speaker 3>can end up having very little say in the face

0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:09.639
<v Speaker 3>of government directives. If China does want to restrict access

0:17:09.680 --> 0:17:13.240
<v Speaker 3>to technology, even though It's companies would find that it's

0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:16.560
<v Speaker 3>in their commercial interest to work with certain countries or

0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:20.879
<v Speaker 3>certain companies, it can kind of hold them back. So

0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:25.680
<v Speaker 3>it does need a diplomatic breakthrough at some level for

0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:27.520
<v Speaker 3>this problem to be fully resolved.

0:17:28.080 --> 0:17:30.960
<v Speaker 2>So what can India then do to break this cycle.

0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:33.280
<v Speaker 2>To break through, the.

0:17:33.200 --> 0:17:37.159
<v Speaker 3>Only option before India is to really identify the next

0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:41.280
<v Speaker 3>window and really catch the next generational lead in technology.

0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:46.399
<v Speaker 3>For many existing industries, the ship may have sailed for India,

0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:50.639
<v Speaker 3>for example, it could perhaps be physically. The advantage India

0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:54.520
<v Speaker 3>has is in the vast population that it has and

0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:57.400
<v Speaker 3>the immense amount of data that it can generate, and

0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:01.160
<v Speaker 3>of course the vast demand that it has for these

0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:04.440
<v Speaker 3>advanced technologies. So it does have the potential to offer

0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:07.119
<v Speaker 3>scale in all of these industries, but it needs to

0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:10.520
<v Speaker 3>figure out the next window in terms of when it

0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:13.680
<v Speaker 3>can do that instead of now just trying to put

0:18:13.800 --> 0:18:23.600
<v Speaker 3>nearly catch up to where China has a clear dominance already.

0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:32.359
<v Speaker 2>This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha.

0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:35.800
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0:18:35.840 --> 0:18:38.760
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0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:42.120
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0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:44.480
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0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:47.480
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0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:49.879
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