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Speaker 1: Come to the Favorites. The podcast presented by BED three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Shad Molman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: We've shared our thoughts on the NFL Draft. We've had

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Speaker 1: our deep dive into the NFL schedule with Warren Sharp.

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Speaker 1: It is time listeners, dear listeners, to examine the NFL

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Speaker 1: Week one slate. Listen. The truth is we say this

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Speaker 1: every week during the season. Lines are already moving. I

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Speaker 1: know on Tuesday before we went on with Warren Like,

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Speaker 1: we were already itching to get to the Week one lines.

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Speaker 1: We were ready for this Thursday episode. Joining me for

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Speaker 1: this conversation as always is my host, my companion, Mike

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Speaker 1: and Padre my bff, the person who I'd likely be

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Speaker 1: the best man at his wedding professional better, Simon Hunter,

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Speaker 1: l O Saiimon.

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Speaker 2: Hello, chat. Is it true were talking Week one NFL lines? Today?

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Speaker 1: Week one NFL lines. I know you've already made a

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Speaker 1: bunch of bets. Oh, I've already made some bets. I'm

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Speaker 1: not uncomfortable locking some money up for the next four

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Speaker 1: months because everything is adjusting. All schedules are moving earlier.

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Speaker 1: So we're gonna have to take advantage of a couple

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Speaker 1: numbers if we want to get the best of it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's just even in the opening line. As

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Speaker 2: soon as they come out. I put a tweet out

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Speaker 2: about the Ravens game, and I think that total has

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Speaker 2: moved three points now chat and we talked about dicking

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Speaker 2: the under. So the professionals are going to hit these numbers.

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Speaker 2: And that's why it's kind of like it. It's changed though, right,

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Speaker 2: I think we keep talking about how things you're getting

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Speaker 2: better for betters. It used to be one book maybe

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Speaker 2: we'll put opening lines out for the Week one lines

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Speaker 2: and everyone else would follow up maybe a month later.

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Speaker 2: Now it's a rush, right, All these books are in competition,

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Speaker 2: so we got lines coming out before the NFL even

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Speaker 2: announces these games, let alone the Week one line. So

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Speaker 2: I love it. Right, every book had Week one lines up.

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Speaker 2: I feel like by the second day maybe, so I

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Speaker 2: think they release the schedule on a Wednesday night. Most

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Speaker 2: books had it up that Wednesday, and then every other

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Speaker 2: book really followed up on Thursday. So yeah, a lot

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Speaker 2: of value to be had before the season starts.

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Speaker 1: We are ready to rock and roll. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: the Favorite cod Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three

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Speaker 1: Check out the Boost and see why it's never ordinary

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Speaker 1: at Bet three six five. Must be twenty one or

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. As a reminder, catch every

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Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying

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Speaker 1: on YouTube right now, don't forget to give us a

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Speaker 1: like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. The

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Speaker 1: thunder outside my house right now is so loud I'm

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Speaker 1: surprised my entire camera isn't shaking. There is a storm

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Speaker 1: that's rumbling down the East coast right now, Simon, So

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Speaker 1: I'm glad we're safe inside super Bowl fifty nine in

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Speaker 1: New Orleans. The road to get there starts in exactly

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Speaker 1: one hundred and five days in Kansas City with the

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Speaker 1: defending champion Chiefs and a rematch of lash years playoff matchup.

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Speaker 1: I will say this in this episode a couple of

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Speaker 1: things I want people to be clear on. We will

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Speaker 1: be doing a big Balls. We will be doing an

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Speaker 1: exec decision. We will be doing a foxhil, We will

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Speaker 1: be doing as Simon says, these are not going to

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Speaker 1: be our official Week one bets until we announce them

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Speaker 1: in the Week one episodes. But we are having a

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Speaker 1: little fun right now. These are bets that Simon and

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Speaker 1: I are locking in on already, that we're investing in.

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Speaker 1: Uh to enjoy a little bit of a taste for

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Speaker 1: the next few months. Kansas City minus two and a

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Speaker 1: half hosting Baltimore Thursday Night football. Give me the cheeks.

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Speaker 2: This is the best. Like, it's crazy how good these

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Speaker 2: primetime games are. We literally started this game in the

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Speaker 2: next game we're going to talk about is Eagles Green Bay.

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Speaker 1: It's just Friday by the way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, on a Friday, it's amazing. So to start it off,

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Speaker 2: if you're new to the show, me and Chad, it's

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Speaker 2: gonna annoy the hell out of you. But the basis

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Speaker 2: of what we do is predictive value. We are looking

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Speaker 2: for value. So right here off the top, the value

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Speaker 2: has gone on the Ravens number most books, the books

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Speaker 2: we are sponsored by. Right here is showing two and

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Speaker 2: a half. There was a three there. There's still a

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Speaker 2: couple threes out there. You either grab that three or

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Speaker 2: you do not make a bet on this and you

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Speaker 2: just wait because to me, the weight now as someone

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Speaker 2: that got the three, is you hope this gets to

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs at a pick or maybe minus one, and

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Speaker 2: that's when you come in on Mahomes and the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: in that spot because that's where the value will be.

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Speaker 2: So to me, the number is three, you want to

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Speaker 2: take the three of the Ravens. If there's no three,

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Speaker 2: you just you sit this one out. There's plenty of

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Speaker 2: other games to bet on here. So this is a

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Speaker 2: game that's really fun because when it came out, you know,

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Speaker 2: first released, I gave it out on line A plus

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Speaker 2: three and take the under which was forty nine and

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Speaker 2: a half. Now the total is down to forty six

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Speaker 2: and a half, and now most books are showing two

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Speaker 2: and a half, so classic case of the book hung

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Speaker 2: a bad number. The professionals headed. Now the value is

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Speaker 2: kind of gone on this game. So it's opening night.

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Speaker 2: The hope is more people will bet it. As get

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Speaker 2: closer to the season, you'll be able to get better

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Speaker 2: value on the Chiefs, or if it goes back up

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Speaker 2: to three, better value on the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: I would guess that number is going back to three.

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Speaker 1: Like the public is going to come in. NFL is

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Speaker 1: bigger every year. Everyone loves Patrick Mahomes. We've got a

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Speaker 1: guest coming on next week who wrote a book about

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. There is too much love for the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: God only knows if Taylor Swift is going to be there.

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Speaker 1: The amount of attention being paid to this game and

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Speaker 1: to the Chiefs will be so high that we will

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Speaker 1: get value again on the Ravens. I think, I think

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Speaker 1: Green Bay at Phillip, Well, green Bay versus Philly. Really,

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Speaker 1: this is a Friday night game in Baltimore. The NFL,

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Speaker 1: they are so brilliant they give no fox like put

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Speaker 1: a game in any country on any day. Whatever the

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Speaker 1: history had been, whatever the president was about when the

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Speaker 1: NFL would play and where they would play is gone.

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Speaker 1: They are playing on Saturdays against expanded college football playoffs.

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Speaker 1: They are playing on December twenty fifth against the window

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Speaker 1: that used to be for the NBA. They are playing

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Speaker 1: on Friday nights. They are playing on Thursday nights. They

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Speaker 1: will be playing on Wednesdays, on Sundays, on Saturdays, on Mondays.

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Speaker 1: They just give. They just give. They're a big gift

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Speaker 1: giving league to all of us fans. Anyways, I don't

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Speaker 1: wanna read on this game. Maybe I like the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: It's short favorites here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the definition of a trap game. Like the

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Speaker 2: Eagles to me feel like the easiest bet ever. They're

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Speaker 2: playing against a young, inexperienced Green Bay team coming off

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Speaker 2: you know, a ton of hype from what they did

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Speaker 2: in the playoffs last year. I mean, Jordan love Now

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Speaker 2: is being talked about as if he's a top ten quarterback. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: this is pete Green Bay. I was just in Atlantic

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Speaker 2: City the other day, talk the multiple book makers. All

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Speaker 2: the money, all of the money is the Eagles. It's

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Speaker 2: just they they're begging for Green Bay money, so I'm

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Speaker 2: hoping that's just because of the lokachhing I'm in. But again,

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Speaker 2: a lot of these books, it's not just Eagles fans.

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Speaker 2: There's tons of Giants fans. It's a lot of Jets

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Speaker 2: fans too. It's all Eagles money right now. So Eagles

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Speaker 2: might be the chalkiest play of Week one right now,

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Speaker 2: but obviously we're three months out that could change. But

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Speaker 2: from my viewpoint, I don't really get this number. I

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Speaker 2: have this at minus three, so I'm showing good value

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Speaker 2: on the Eagles. But when a bookmaker tells me in

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Speaker 2: week one they are begging for eighteen and it's a dog,

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Speaker 2: I'm eventually getting up on that side with them, most likely,

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Speaker 2: Like it's just the way it is where it's like,

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Speaker 2: as much as I trust my own number, this number

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Speaker 2: is just very weird. I don't really understand it. And

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Speaker 2: maybe it's because international, or maybe because the Eagles finish

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Speaker 2: so poorly last year that the bookmakers don't really trust them.

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Speaker 2: But it's a bizarre number to me. So for right now,

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Speaker 2: I'm just going to stay away and pass on it.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's about I think you're close to

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Speaker 1: nailing why the number is what it is. This is

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Speaker 1: a public perception bet. To me, I don't think fans

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Speaker 1: really paid attention to how well the Eagles drafted and

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Speaker 1: how much they improved their personnel and how much better

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Speaker 1: their defense got by the changes in the coaching staff,

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Speaker 1: and so the bookmakers know that, and like people who

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Speaker 1: are really paying attention know that the Eagles kind of

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Speaker 1: won the off season. You know, when it comes to

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Speaker 1: the NFC, especially the NFC East and the Packers, everyone

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Speaker 1: is remembering, oh yeah, the Packers. They played amazing in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs, they beat the Cowboys, they had chances to advance.

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Speaker 1: So I think there's just a lot of public sentiment

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Speaker 1: coming in on the Packers and people remembering them being

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Speaker 1: and that people remembering the Eagles being disastrous at the

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Speaker 1: end of the year. So that's why I think it's

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Speaker 1: tracky and it's a little bit of a trap. But

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Speaker 1: I don't think. I don't think our reasoning is right

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Speaker 1: that this is the right side. But it's just a

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Speaker 1: little scary to play it this early. It's not where

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Speaker 1: I would lock up my money.

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Speaker 2: It's just a weird number because Green Bay is an

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Speaker 2: easy team to bet to, miss the playoffs. Like we

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Speaker 2: talk every year, there's just there's three or four teams

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Speaker 2: are guaranteed to miss the playoffs, like Green Bay is

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Speaker 2: at the top of the list of a team that overachieved,

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Speaker 2: you expect to miss the playoffs. So just interesting that

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Speaker 2: the books have this number so low.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of expectations, we tease this the other day, Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: at Atlanta Atlanta minus three. Dude, I don't know about

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Speaker 1: this game. I don't know about this team, but I

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Speaker 1: feel like we're lean and Steelers here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if you want to make some of our bets too,

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Speaker 2: I love this pick, especially at plus three for the Steelers.

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Speaker 2: It's just my view of it is there is a

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Speaker 2: lot of respect to Kirk Cousins coming off a major

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Speaker 2: injury on a new team, running a new scheme with

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Speaker 2: new weapons, playing against a Pittsburgh team, they could say, well,

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Speaker 2: they have a new quarterback too, and Russell Wilson. It's

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Speaker 2: like they're not gonna be asking Russell Wilson do anywhere

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Speaker 2: near as much as Atlanta's been asking kirk Cousins the

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Speaker 2: dough and then new factor in as well that you

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Speaker 2: know their old head coach Atlanta now is on Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: and is their offensive coordinator. Like that's a big deal.

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Speaker 2: This guy knows. You know, Arthur Smith, say what you

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Speaker 2: want about him. I think he's a pretty good offensive coordinator.

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Speaker 2: We saw what he did with Tannehill in that Tennessee offense.

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Speaker 2: So you know, for early days here, it's gonna be

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Speaker 2: an advantage of Pittsburgh. Right, No one's really gonna know

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Speaker 2: what they're gonna do with Kirk. He kind of not

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Speaker 2: saying that you know exactly what that offense is gonna be,

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Speaker 2: but we know what Kirk is. But coming off an injury,

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Speaker 2: it's just I can't believe this is minus three. To me,

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Speaker 2: this is closer to well, we just talk about the

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Speaker 2: Eagles big game. It's like that this should be minus

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Speaker 2: one and a half. Right, these two teams. I really

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Speaker 2: do think Pittsburgh's a little better, right, Like, this is

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Speaker 2: a team that across the board, I haven't grayed out

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Speaker 2: a lot of more key positions, and we're not even

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Speaker 2: talking about it. We have a fully healthy watt. Me

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Speaker 2: and Chad love what Pittsburgh as a dog in this position.

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Speaker 2: We almost always play this blindly honestly, So me and

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Speaker 2: Chad I knew were gonna love this one. Back to

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Speaker 2: the pros have come in now and you're seeing a

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Speaker 2: bunch of books, you know, showing that this is going

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Speaker 2: from three to two and a half. I'm just hoping

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Speaker 2: people can get the three on the Pittsburgh the.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned Watt, and you know Evan is out this week,

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Speaker 1: but if he was on, we would have the litany

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Speaker 1: of stats that show how much better the Steelers are

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Speaker 1: both straight up and against the spread when Wat is

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Speaker 1: on the field. Couldn't agree with you more about the

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Speaker 1: situation that the Steelers find themselves in. This is a

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Speaker 1: perfect spot to bet the Steelers, Simon. I'm calling it

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Speaker 1: right now. We're in the foxholl because nobody is going

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Speaker 1: to think, oh, I want to bet Russell Wilson, Oh

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Speaker 1: I want to bet the Steelers when they know Atlanta

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Speaker 1: is getting so much hype.

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Speaker 2: Like they're like one of the most hyped up teams

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Speaker 2: right now, and it's it's I wanted to be on

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Speaker 2: Atlanta now. It's really making me a little nervous abound.

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Speaker 2: It's making me a little nervous about Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: Are we in the foxhill?

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Speaker 2: I'm in the foxhole now. One Yet we're in the

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Speaker 2: fox Hill.

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Speaker 1: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

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Speaker 1: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to

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Speaker 1: a city.

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Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy.

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville at Miami. Miami is a three and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorite.

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Speaker 2: I know, yeah, we're supposed to take Jacksonville, but I

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Speaker 2: actually kind of like Miami. Just Miami at home. But

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Speaker 2: my fear with Miami is I don't really know what

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Speaker 2: kind of team they're going to be. On defense. They've

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Speaker 2: just had a lot of shake up. Now I'm just

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Speaker 2: losing their defensive coordinat I don't know if you know

263
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Speaker 2: he went things has got the Eagles now, I don't

264
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Speaker 2: know if that's that big of a deal. But you know,

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Speaker 2: Miami's had some big, big pieces left their defense, and

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Speaker 2: I know they've signed a couple of guys. But I

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Speaker 2: don't really have a good read on Miami.

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Speaker 1: But my view of that Miami's a little overvalued. I

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Speaker 1: think this is another perception thing. Fans aren't thinking about

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Speaker 1: the fact the Dolphins got rid of Christian Wilkins, right,

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Speaker 1: You're not thinking about the fact that the rest of

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Speaker 1: their defense is a little depleted and that there's going

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Speaker 1: to be some changes they're only thinking about the fact

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Speaker 1: Miami played great last year even if they did lose

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs, and Jacksonville underachieved, And so I think

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Speaker 1: you're getting a half point of value in this game.

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Speaker 1: I'm not ready to bet it yet because this is

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Speaker 1: one of those games I want to see how things

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Speaker 1: shake out. There's too many personnel changes that I need

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Speaker 1: to evaluate what happens during the preseason a little bit

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Speaker 1: slight slightly in Jacksonville.

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Speaker 2: But the over to me is the play there. If

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Speaker 2: we're not going because me and chat, you should tick

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Speaker 2: sides here. But like the over, that's the play Miami

285
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Speaker 2: at home. This will be a track meet so fast.

286
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Speaker 2: Like Miami is gonna put up points. I think Jacksonville

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Speaker 2: is gonna be able to counter it. Like they do

288
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Speaker 2: have weapons on that offense. I hope people think because

289
00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,120
Speaker 2: Colvin Ridley left they don't, but it's like they actually

290
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Speaker 2: do have some pretty solid weapons across the board for Jacksonville.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, met Chad and mainly do sides here. But

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Speaker 2: if you're looking for a total the over here forty

293
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Speaker 2: nine and a half, I don't mind taking that at all.

294
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Speaker 2: I have this game at fifty one and a half,

295
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Speaker 2: so two points of values a lot for me.

296
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Speaker 1: Minnesota at New York Giants, Giants one point favorites at home.

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Speaker 2: Simon says, New York Giants when we do what science says, shocker.

298
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Speaker 2: I know, I love this spot so much for the Giants,

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Speaker 2: the Swikings team, people talking about that. I just can't

300
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Speaker 2: believe this number is what it is, Like, are often

301
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Speaker 2: right now, Zamy me there might be starting JJ McCartney

302
00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,960
Speaker 2: is first start on the road in New York or

303
00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,680
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold, a guy who saw ghosts in this exact stadium.

304
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Speaker 2: It's like, I can't believe this is the number. It's

305
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,040
Speaker 2: a dream. It's just the hater's gone too far for

306
00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,640
Speaker 2: the Giants and Daniel Jones, we all agree he is

307
00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,320
Speaker 2: not a good quarterback and any like we all agree

308
00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:17,320
Speaker 2: he's not the guy right, like they overpaid him. I

309
00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:19,040
Speaker 2: understand like why they want to get rid of him

310
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Speaker 2: and why they try to move on from this offseason.

311
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Speaker 2: But he's on the team and when he plays, he

312
00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,720
Speaker 2: actually plays pretty well in this offense, like surprisingly does

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Speaker 2: all right. Now for his first time his career, he

314
00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,120
Speaker 2: has a number one receiver, like they took a top

315
00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,640
Speaker 2: receiver in the draft. I just don't think the Giant's

316
00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 2: gonna be as bad as everyone's making an out to be. Like,

317
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:39,800
Speaker 2: this number, to me is just insane, and I just

318
00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:42,480
Speaker 2: can't believe. I can't believe people are betting on the

319
00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:46,000
Speaker 2: Vikings here on the on the road. It's crazy to me,

320
00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:47,840
Speaker 2: Like I was hoping this number was gonna flip, that

321
00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:49,840
Speaker 2: so much love was gonna come up this Vikings team.

322
00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:52,560
Speaker 2: But just in the last two days, the reports are

323
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Speaker 2: coming out there that J. J. McCarthy is just he's

324
00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:57,920
Speaker 2: been horrible in their practices, like they're doing seven on

325
00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:01,000
Speaker 2: seven drills Chad and apparently he's screamed. Which if you're

326
00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,000
Speaker 2: a head coach and you're doing a seven on seven

327
00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:06,600
Speaker 2: drie and you've seen your qube continuously scramble, that's got

328
00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,680
Speaker 2: to be an absolute nightmare. It's like, oh my god,

329
00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:10,919
Speaker 2: this is literally designed for him just to be passing.

330
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Speaker 2: So yeah, I can't believe this is only minus one.

331
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Speaker 2: It's it really is a gift. I know the Giants,

332
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 2: they're depleted, They're not that good of a team. I

333
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,320
Speaker 2: understand where all that's gonna come from. Minnesota on paper,

334
00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,000
Speaker 2: is a better team. I just think overall, there's a

335
00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:27,879
Speaker 2: big advantage to this Giants team facing either a rookie

336
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,879
Speaker 2: making his first start on the road or Sam Darnold.

337
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Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised this is your Simon says, completely

338
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,119
Speaker 1: agree with you, because I.

339
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,720
Speaker 2: Hate to bet this, but it's like, this is insane.

340
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:43,639
Speaker 1: But I also know there's to me. We still got

341
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,280
Speaker 1: to do an exec decision and a big balls and

342
00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 1: there's three games that we still have to talk about

343
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:53,120
Speaker 1: that I think could fill either one of those categories.

344
00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,080
Speaker 1: And I thought those were going to be the other

345
00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:59,240
Speaker 1: three games that filled. Simon says, big balls, an exec decision.

346
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,960
Speaker 1: In fact, you pulled Minnesota New York Giants out. It's

347
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,400
Speaker 1: totally It's like it's almost like you went way off

348
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,240
Speaker 1: the board and drafted a guy I did not have

349
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:11,520
Speaker 1: in any my top four slots. And now I'm re

350
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:15,680
Speaker 1: examining the entire board to see who is going to

351
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:17,880
Speaker 1: get left out.

352
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 2: Now not two weeks ago and this number came out

353
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,119
Speaker 2: and not think the Giants gonna be one my favorite bets.

354
00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 2: And then when I saw the number, I'm just like,

355
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,000
Speaker 2: oh my god, Like this is the hate has gone

356
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:29,879
Speaker 2: way too far on this Giants team.

357
00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:35,119
Speaker 1: It's so interesting how we've talked about this. Brian Daball

358
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,199
Speaker 1: two years ago Coach of the Year, Yeah, pulls Daniel

359
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:41,520
Speaker 1: Jones in a playoff win out of his hat against

360
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:47,040
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings, and we felt like Kevin O'Connell wasn't

361
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:50,119
Speaker 1: getting the credit he deserved as a really good coach

362
00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:53,880
Speaker 1: for doing similar things with the Vikings that day Ball

363
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,560
Speaker 1: did with the Giants, and then this past year he

364
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:58,919
Speaker 1: did even better by getting the Vikings to be as

365
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 1: good as they were after Kirk Cousins went down and

366
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,119
Speaker 1: just cycling through quarterbacks. So I do feel like in

367
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:10,920
Speaker 1: this matchup, we're getting two really good offensive minds who

368
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:14,679
Speaker 1: know how to get their teams ready and play to

369
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,240
Speaker 1: the strengths of their team, but also exposed the weaknesses

370
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:19,879
Speaker 1: of the other team's defense. So it is a tricky

371
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:21,639
Speaker 1: game because O'Connor is a really good coach.

372
00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 2: He is, But again, it's too much love, like people

373
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,040
Speaker 2: were like, oh, this guy figured out the past or not.

374
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,480
Speaker 2: They fell off a cliff and that was it. It was

375
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 2: over right. They literally couldn't do anything. Are they the

376
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,800
Speaker 2: team that put up Yeah, they put up zero points? Right,

377
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:39,879
Speaker 2: they lost to the Raiders. Three nothing? Right? Or was

378
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:42,000
Speaker 2: it the other way? Did they win three nothing? It

379
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,359
Speaker 2: just got to a point where it's just like, I

380
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 2: get the love for the guy. He does amazing things,

381
00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,360
Speaker 2: but it's he's not reinventing the wheel here, Like, he's

382
00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 2: not that special. Teams are pretty quickly can figure out

383
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 2: what he was doing with other quarterbacks and we're able

384
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,840
Speaker 2: to shut it down. So for me, I do think

385
00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 2: he's a great coach, but I think Dabo's better. I

386
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 2: honestly do. Like he just even bills fans. You've seen

387
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,360
Speaker 2: the difference between Josh Allen under his coaching and since

388
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:09,119
Speaker 2: he's left the offense. So yeah, it's tough to say,

389
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:13,240
Speaker 2: Yeah that was Vikings vers Raiders. Yeah, so again and

390
00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:15,120
Speaker 2: a game and a game, I get it, it's all

391
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,679
Speaker 2: it's football is weird like that. But I just remember

392
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:19,399
Speaker 2: watching that game and being like, this guy is a

393
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 2: little overrated. Kevin Simon.

394
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the

395
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:25,680
Speaker 1: United States?

396
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:26,800
Speaker 2: Game Time?

397
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love game Time for

398
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor this show. Second, I

399
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,920
Speaker 1: use game Time all the time. They have amazing last

400
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 1: minute deals, including pro in college sports, I'm actually opening

401
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 1: the game Time app right now from my house here

402
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:45,199
Speaker 1: in Connecticut. Guess what the hottest team in baseball the

403
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 1: New York Yankees. I can get into see them for

404
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 1: thirty bucks. No matter where you live, download the game

405
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Speaker 1: Time app. Get out have some fun this week. You

406
00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 1: deserve it. You can redeem code favorite for twenty dollars

407
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,719
Speaker 1: off first per wh Just terms apply again. Just download

408
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Speaker 1: the game Time app and use code Favorites for twenty

409
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 1: dollars off your first purchase last minute tickets. Those prices guaranteed.

410
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 1: Tennessee at Chicago, the Monsters of the Midway four and

411
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 1: a half point favorites with a rookie quarterback at home

412
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:29,880
Speaker 1: against the Tennessee Titans, This to me feels way trappy.

413
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 1: It feels like, all right, everyone's heard about Caleb Williams.

414
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 1: He's at home, first game ever in the NFL, going

415
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,920
Speaker 1: against the Titans, team that has a new coach, a

416
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 1: quarterback that everyone thinks is suspect. I'm not buying four

417
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,880
Speaker 1: and a half though. To me, like one hundred percent,

418
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,640
Speaker 1: this is a play on the Tennessee Titans as an

419
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 1: underdog of not only more than a field goal, more

420
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 1: than four points, which is your key number.

421
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, I would say this is probably our grossest bet,

422
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 2: right yeah, like we're gonna make it's it's one of

423
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 2: the biggest that like, no one feels good about placing

424
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,360
Speaker 2: this bet. You are literally the definition of catrarion here

425
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:16,439
Speaker 2: bet in this So yeah, Chad's view is so right though.

426
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 2: It's like this line should probably be what minus two

427
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 2: and a half three at most, Like it should not.

428
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 1: Even it should not be a field goal. I'll tell

429
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 1: you that.

430
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 2: I would put it right there though, just because that's

431
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 2: how low the bar is right now. And will Levis

432
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,880
Speaker 2: where even in even the little game film practice we've

433
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 2: seen of Williams, I mean, it's just it's night and

434
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,120
Speaker 2: Dick compared to a guy like will Levis, right, will

435
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 2: Levis doesn't look that smooth and comfortable compared to watching

436
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 2: a kid like Williams who's a rookie coming and throw

437
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:49,239
Speaker 2: the ball. So yeah, for us here, this is an

438
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 2: easy bet, like this is gonna be in the money

439
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 2: line around Robin. This is just an inflated number with

440
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 2: a ton of value on it that we could be

441
00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 2: down fourteen to nothing me and Chad in the first

442
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,919
Speaker 2: quarter and now we have will Levis throwing for the

443
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 2: rest of the game, and we are dead. We are

444
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 2: dead in this game. But on the flip side, no

445
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 2: one would be shocked if Williams struggles in his first

446
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,159
Speaker 2: game at home with all that pressure, the weight of

447
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,679
Speaker 2: Chicago on his shoulders. It's going to be heavy, like

448
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 2: he's about to go through a whole month of people

449
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 2: blowing smoke up his ass. When you guys get in

450
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 2: there and camp just because you've never had such a

451
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 2: good court. I mean, they're just going from him and

452
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 2: Justin Fields mentally in that huddle in the QB room

453
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 2: is going to be insane. This kid can remember plays

454
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 2: from high school and talk about the formations to like that. Again,

455
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 2: not trying to bash us the fields, but that was

456
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 2: the big knock on Justin Fields is he just was

457
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,160
Speaker 2: not the smartest football mind, right, His football mind wasn't

458
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 2: the best where that's when of Williams strngth. So the

459
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 2: pressure is going to be insane on this kid. And

460
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 2: again I was gonna make this one of our big

461
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 2: balls bet. But my worry here is this number chat

462
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,719
Speaker 2: is going to keep going up because I think all

463
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 2: the Tisers, all these other bets going to come in.

464
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 2: So it's like, I'm happy for people to grab the

465
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,119
Speaker 2: four and a half, but it's not this is one

466
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:02,879
Speaker 2: of the bets. I'm not holding you down being like

467
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,679
Speaker 2: you have to take this right now. Chad knows. I

468
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 2: really want to see more Will Levis tape, especially in

469
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 2: the preseason, see what kind of offensive scheme they're running

470
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,479
Speaker 2: here before I put, you know, upwards of six figures

471
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 2: onto a Tennessee team, because it's just like senior right now,

472
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,119
Speaker 2: I can't really bring myself to do it. It's like,

473
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 2: looking at this team, I don't have that kind of

474
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 2: faith me and you are really just betting a bad

475
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 2: number at the end of the day, right you know.

476
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,880
Speaker 1: It's funny this was I said. There were three games

477
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 1: that I had sort of pegged as slotting for exec

478
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 1: Decision and Big Balls. Now that Simon Says and fox

479
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 1: Hall been taken, this was one of them, and then

480
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 1: I decided it wasn't going to be my suggestion for it.

481
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: Neither is the next one. But I know we're going

482
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 1: to bet it. I know it's going to be in

483
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 1: the money line parlay, and it's going to be terrible,

484
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 1: and this is going to be our Jacksonville Jaguars team

485
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,479
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty one. We're just going to bet it

486
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 1: every single week Carolina Panthers plus five at New Orleans.

487
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 1: I don't even want to talk about it. I just

488
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 1: want to say we're betting it.

489
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 2: No, I'll definitely give some voice to bray Sewan because

490
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 2: I just literally spent a whole entire year shitting on

491
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,679
Speaker 2: the kid, and I didn't want to do it, but

492
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 2: it's that's part of the job, right is we come

493
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 2: here to really be honest with our views and our opinions.

494
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,439
Speaker 2: And it was just like, I couldn't get over this

495
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 2: kid being a first round pick. Did I think he

496
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 2: was gonna be as far as he was, No, I

497
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 2: think that team organization failed him in a ton of ways.

498
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 2: Now they're trying to do their best to fix it.

499
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's the fix though. What they

500
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,439
Speaker 2: went out and did was spend about fifty million on

501
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 2: their offensive line, which is great. I think they have

502
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 2: the most highest paid offensive line in all football, which

503
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:49,120
Speaker 2: is fantastic. But my issue is the kids still can't

504
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:50,879
Speaker 2: see the middle of the field because you can'tee his

505
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 2: offensive line one they're all standing up. That's a huge issue.

506
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 2: So I don't know, they're a weird team chat Like,

507
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 2: like you said, we'll play this five. But I feel

508
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 2: better taking Tennessee, even though I have more questions about

509
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,919
Speaker 2: them than I even do taking a Panthers here just

510
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 2: because they have they're just losers, the stank of the

511
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 2: losing culture last year. I mean, going back all those

512
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 2: bets we lost. I've watched some of those games. Unfortunately,

513
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 2: a bunch the drops from the receivers, all this stuff.

514
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 2: They didn't really fix a lot of that stuff. I know,

515
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 2: you know, they've tried to add guys. I think they

516
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 2: got the guy from Pittsburgh, right, I figured which receiver

517
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 2: they got from Pittsburgh, but they did add a receiver.

518
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 2: But it's like, I still think Feeling's probably their best guy.

519
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 2: I mean, Deontay Johnson's really good, but he's inconsistent. I

520
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 2: think he had one touchdown in like seventeen games, which

521
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 2: again you can blame the quarterback. But like Chad said,

522
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 2: I'm sorry even spending this much time on it, I

523
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 2: just I do think the Panthers are gonna be better.

524
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 2: This is the team that me and Chattel fortunately are

525
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 2: gonna be betting a lot this upcoming season, but it was

526
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:50,920
Speaker 2: all about picking our spots here. So yeah, I like it,

527
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 2: but I doubt this will be one of our five

528
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:53,639
Speaker 2: come Week one.

529
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 1: No, it won't be. But we're are We're historically we're

530
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,400
Speaker 1: gonna fade Dennis Allen as a favorite. We're gonna finish

531
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 1: as a five point favorite at home this next game,

532
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: Arizona at Buffalo. I am offering this up Arizona Cardinals

533
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 1: plus seven as our big balls bet of the off season.

534
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 2: Now we have another one. I have a we have

535
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 2: a better big balls but I get you're coming from

536
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 2: this is this is a bet we we probably make,

537
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 2: but yeah, it's another one. I don't really get the number.

538
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 2: Is this because of teasers? Like why is this so high?

539
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 2: This is this is a crazy big number for a

540
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 2: Buffalo offense that I feel like their identity has totally

541
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 2: changed this offseason where they're kind of be a more

542
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:44,880
Speaker 2: oriented team. But this scares me chat because they they

543
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 2: they are begging us to put some money on the Cardinals.

544
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 2: You're giving us that plus seven, that's a big number.

545
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 2: Where Yeah, Kyler with Marmon Harris like this back door

546
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 2: is always going to be open with this Bills teams,

547
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 2: not that his highest power has always been so over

548
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 2: your head's out. But I actually haven't put a penny

549
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 2: on this game yet. I don't really know what to

550
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 2: read is on. It's like, won't this be seven and

551
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 2: a half eight by week one? Just because all the

552
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 2: teasers and parlays on the Bills. But man, I couldn't.

553
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 2: I could not believe this open at seven just because

554
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 2: I had it at power at five and a half six.

555
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, I initially I wanted to jump right on it,

556
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:19,919
Speaker 2: but I'm trying to be patient here and wait on

557
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 2: this one to keep going up.

558
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you again, for those listening, we don't

559
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 1: talk about this before to We don't want to map

560
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 1: it out because we want this to be organic and

561
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 1: feel fresh. I'm shocked. Like I looked at the schedule,

562
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: I looked at the rundown this morning, I'm like, oh, yes,

563
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 1: this is at our big balls bet of the week.

564
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: I know how we feel about the Bills right now.

565
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: I know how we feel about the Cardinals. We both

566
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 1: think the Cardinals are trending up. We think they could

567
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 1: be the third best team in their division, maybe the

568
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 1: second best in the NFC West. Definitely like the way

569
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: they played last year. I am shocked, shocked, shocked, So

570
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to your suggestions.

571
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 2: It's really just about Kyler Brother. I just that dude.

572
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 2: I don't know about him. Like he came back and

573
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 2: he might have had a moment here there, but it

574
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 2: was just like I don't really I don't really know

575
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 2: if he is, if he even likes football, Like, I

576
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 2: just have a bunch of I have too many questions

577
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: about him. So that's just my biggest issue at chaw

578
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 2: where it's like you're asking to lock up money for

579
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:24,959
Speaker 2: the next three months, and I feel like I might

580
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 2: be able to get better value come week one, just

581
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 2: because Yeah, I just I don't know who's really loving

582
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 2: back in the Arizona besides the professionals. Like he just

583
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 2: talked with the professionals, I think they love their win.

584
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 2: Told a lot of people are all in on this

585
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 2: Cardinals team. I just I have a lot of questions still,

586
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 2: just mainly about Kyler.

587
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: All right, well, we still own a big balls, we

588
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 1: still own EXAC decision. I will tell you that my

589
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 1: EXAC decision is coming up soon, but it is not

590
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: New England at Cincinnati. Cincinnati minus nine and a half,

591
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, his luxurious main Joe Burrow, who is him?

592
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, who we love of nine and a half

593
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 1: is a big, big, big big number.

594
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll bet the Patriots here. And I wish I'd

595
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 2: give you guys a ton of numbers and logical reasoning

596
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: behind it, but there really isn't one other than this

597
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 2: is an inflated line and everyone in the world is

598
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 2: going to have the Cincinnati and their teasers and their parlays,

599
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 2: and it's just it's and again another number where if

600
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 2: you want to wait, this could easily get to ten

601
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 2: might as you can wait. I mean, there's no rush.

602
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 2: But in my mind, I think this number is so

603
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 2: high because they have it as if May is going

604
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 2: to start where I think most of us think it's

605
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 2: gonna be Perset, which again, that'd be amazing value if

606
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 2: it's Persette starting, even though I have big questions about him,

607
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 2: it's at the end of the day, he to me,

608
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 2: would be a safer bet than betting on May the

609
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 2: unknown here in this week one So another line where

610
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 2: it's like I'm not making this anything for us just

611
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,719
Speaker 2: because I don't want people getting a bad number here

612
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 2: and then being pissed come week one because ten is

613
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 2: such a key number. So yeah, there's nine and a

614
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,479
Speaker 2: half's out there. Hopefully we wait it gets to ten

615
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 2: at some point this summer. I mean, I'll definitely tweet

616
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 2: about or we'll bring it up on the show and

617
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 2: you go grab when it's ten, but don't, don't just

618
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 2: grab a nine. Nine is kind of a debt number anyway.

619
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 1: Houston at Indy Indie minus one and a half, I

620
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 1: mean Indy plus one and a half. There's two home

621
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:21,239
Speaker 1: underdogs on the schedule in week one. This is one

622
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 1: of them. We're gonna get the other one a little bit.

623
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts are my exec decision.

624
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you

625
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 2: have your honor's text A cute number executive decision.

626
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to find another big boss, all right?

627
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 1: Yeah no, I feel strongly about this one.

628
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 2: Yeah.

629
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 1: Like we are buy and low, we are selling high.

630
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 1: We are getting Anthony Richardson, who was a gamer. We

631
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: are getting Shane Steichen, who I think is a brilliant coach.

632
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 1: Did such a good job turning Gardner Minshew into a

633
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 1: quarterback who can make this a high can Alibert team

634
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 1: who could compete with anybody. Obviously Houston with Rookie of

635
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: the Year on offense, Rookie of the Year on defense.

636
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: Demigo Ryans is a great coach like they are. They

637
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 1: are primed to be great, which means they are primed

638
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 1: for a fall. In Week one, give me the Annapolis

639
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: Colts plus one and a half home underdog. Exec decision, go.

640
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, this isn't a gain. Much is in this divisional

641
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 2: home dog on a team we both love, with a

642
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 2: quarterback we think is going to take another big step

643
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 2: in his second year. So even if you've seen him

644
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 2: in practice, like how much weight and muscle is put on,

645
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 2: even if story mechanics looked better in his footwork than

646
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 2: they did last year, like clearly he's been working on

647
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,719
Speaker 2: all of it. So yeah, people are gonna get You're

648
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 2: gonna get sick of it. Me chatter gonna like I

649
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 2: already wish we had talked more about it. But his

650
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 2: his MVP odds were really good. Now they're not. The

651
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 2: value is really not there anymore, Tibet Anthony Ridge's an MVP,

652
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 2: but like these are the time it kind of teams

653
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: we love to back, right It's like if you go

654
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 2: back and watch how Houston the Colts played last year,

655
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 2: I have no doubt that if a rodd was healthier

656
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson, they probably would have beat them like they were.

657
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 2: Just that game came down to the last game of

658
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 2: the year and Minshewt to me was the difference in

659
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 2: that game where their defense. Colts played really well against

660
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 2: you know CJ. And we've kind of seen that, right,

661
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 2: And it's divisional games. You've seen guys twice. It's different

662
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 2: the second time around. You know they have. It's just

663
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 2: it's just different divisional games. So me and chatter and

664
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:33,719
Speaker 2: so lockstep here. I love this one so much. If

665
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 2: you're scared, like I tell I say it all the time,

666
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 2: if you're scared, better you don't want to take the

667
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 2: one and a half. Now do a teaser, Like if

668
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 2: you want to do a teaser here with this team

669
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 2: and Cincinnati or the Bills wherever you want to throw in,

670
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 2: there are chalk teaser seven and a half picking this

671
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 2: team up to seven and a half at home. Colts,

672
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 2: I just there's not a ward. I can't see this

673
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 2: team not covering that, especially in divisional games. So yeah,

674
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 2: love lover. Chad's had that love this game, love this

675
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 2: matchup Houston. To me, this will be the one of

676
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 2: the most bet public sides right. All that money's gonna

677
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 2: come in so heavy on Houston. Yes, I mean people

678
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 2: getting them under a field goal in this game. They're

679
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 2: just loving that value. Where me and Chatty the other way,

680
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 2: we just can't believe we're getting a plus number right

681
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 2: now on this Colts team. So just I'm says that

682
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 2: you picked up but obviously want to make it the

683
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 2: big balls. But I see your heads at chat This

684
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 2: is this is a great.

685
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: Bet, all right, now that I've made it my exact decision,

686
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 1: we do need to do a big balls. We can

687
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 1: keep Arizona on the table, but there is another game

688
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:33,839
Speaker 1: where I think we could go big balls, and so

689
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 1: we'll keep running through it and know that Arizona is

690
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 1: in our back pocket. Denver Seattle Seattle minus four and

691
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 1: a half, no thank you anywhere.

692
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 2: I know I hate it though we're supposed to bet Denver,

693
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 2: but don't come on. I know it's it's it. I

694
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 2: know I can't do it. I just maybe my hate's

695
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 2: gone too far on Seattle. But that's that's a big

696
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 2: number for Gino. But Chad's right, it's like, am I

697
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:07,800
Speaker 2: really gonna be betting on bow Knicks on the road

698
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 2: in his first start? Plus five? It's just I'd rather

699
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 2: I'd rather put my money elsewhere. So yeah, I just

700
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 2: I can't. I can't see this really changing unless you know,

701
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 2: we watch preseason. This kid has full command of the

702
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 2: offense and everything. He reads great. But it's just that's

703
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,919
Speaker 2: that's that's tough. Maybe we wait, he looks like dog

704
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 2: shit in preseason. We get a seven come kickoff. But yeah,

705
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 2: Chad's right, I'll pass on this now.

706
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 1: It's not a bet now game, We're not you know,

707
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 1: we don't feel strongly about that right now.

708
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:36,919
Speaker 2: Vegas, I just can't make a number on it because

709
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 2: I had nothing really for my model. It's like, I

710
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:40,879
Speaker 2: don't know who the quarterback is. I got no read

711
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 2: on any of these quarterbacks right now. Obviously, if it's

712
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 2: not Bo Nicks and they got the other guys going,

713
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 2: it's not ideal in Denver, But I think Champaigne's so

714
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 2: enamored with the kids, he's going to be the starter.

715
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 1: Las Vegas at l A Chargers. Jim Harbaugh debut at

716
00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 1: home minus three and a half point favorites. Not a

717
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 1: massive feel for this game. I don't have a strong

718
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 1: opinion one way or the other.

719
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:10,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I do know. I'm gonna hate myself

720
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 2: for doing it, but I took the under. I just

721
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 2: I had to bet it. It's like even though like

722
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:18,720
Speaker 2: I might regret it, but I just view this Raiders

723
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 2: identity is that the identity is that it's the defense

724
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 2: twelve personnel running the ball kind of team. Like that's

725
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 2: just my view of what they're gonna try to be

726
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 2: this season, this Raiders team, and harror Ball is more

727
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 2: than happy to just go into the mud and run

728
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 2: the ball forty times. Like he doesn't care that it's Herbert.

729
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:39,800
Speaker 2: He just wants to win every game by one point.

730
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 2: Like that's why I love a coach like him. He

731
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 2: does not care that whatever Herbert is so great at.

732
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 2: It's like, no, we're here to win, not see you

733
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,280
Speaker 2: throw amazing passes downfield with one out of every five connects.

734
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 2: It's like that whole thing we saw with Herbert, those

735
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 2: old days are kind of gone. He's gonna kind of

736
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,240
Speaker 2: go into that Andrew Luck roll right, Andrew Luck at Stanford.

737
00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 2: If you go back and watch it. Once they had weapons,

738
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 2: he felt comfortably and your look, they really opened the

739
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 2: offense up and they're happy to push the ball downfield.

740
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 2: But the early days he really relies on him learning

741
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,239
Speaker 2: the system and just running the ball. So you know,

742
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 2: there was a couple forty five's out there. A couple

743
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 2: of forty fours are still available our sponsors here Beth

744
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:16,760
Speaker 2: through six's five of a forty three and a half.

745
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 2: You'd take it if you wont but try to find

746
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:20,800
Speaker 2: the forty four. That's a key number. So definitely like

747
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 2: the under in this matchup.

748
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 1: Potential big balls, better of the week. I don't think

749
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:29,720
Speaker 1: it's it, but it's potential. It's on the board. Dallas

750
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:32,799
Speaker 1: at Cleveland Cleveland plus one and a half. We're going

751
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 1: to go into the season the same as we went

752
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 1: into last season. Deshaun Watson, Deshaun Watson, Deshaun Watson. The

753
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 1: more belief in this Cleveland team is directly correlated to

754
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 1: your belief in Deshaun Watson. And I know you can

755
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 1: say that about the quarterback for every team. There is

756
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 1: something different about Deshaun Watson because people continue to think

757
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 1: of him as what he was with the Texans, and

758
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 1: hoping he can get back to that with the Browns,

759
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,720
Speaker 1: and that makes the ceiling for this team so much higher.

760
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,839
Speaker 1: Cleveland at plus one and a half feels like a

761
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 1: good side if you are a believer in Deshaun Watson.

762
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,319
Speaker 2: Yep. And this is a game another game where I'm

763
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 2: happy to wait on, where everything's so negative that juju

764
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 2: is so bad right now for Dallas. I want to, honestly, Jed,

765
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 2: I want to bet Dallas. I just feel like this

766
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 2: is a nice bilose spot on DAK and then Week

767
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 2: one here against Cleveland, where to me, Watson's gonna be

768
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 2: so crazy rusty. I mean, this guy has played not

769
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 2: played a full season. He's just been playing sparsely for

770
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 2: about four years now. And he's inconsistent. I mean even

771
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 2: in practice. I watched the other day some of their practice.

772
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:47,320
Speaker 2: He's not even fully throwing yet. He was doing mimic throwing,

773
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 2: like he's not throwing with a ball, Like he still

774
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 2: has days where he's not fully fully throwing yet. So

775
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 2: you know, again, we're three months out. I get it,

776
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a slow process getting back. But I

777
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 2: look at this team that me and Chad loved them

778
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 2: last year because of Jim Schwartz and that defense, and

779
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,439
Speaker 2: that was our ultimate confidence that we know they're gonna

780
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 2: be the greatest home team ever in football history. Like defensively, no,

781
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:14,399
Speaker 2: is that repeatable, Chad, No, we both know that's Those

782
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 2: are totally outliner kind of things. So I'm trying not

783
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 2: to be scared off by that because if this was

784
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 2: mid season last year, me and Chad would be hammering please. Yeah,

785
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 2: even if it was Joe Flacco, we would love this number.

786
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 2: So I'm trying to be not an idiot, not thinking

787
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,360
Speaker 2: about last year, kind of play what's in front of me.

788
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 2: And as you said here right now, I think me

789
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,359
Speaker 2: and you both feel more confidence putting our money behind

790
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,800
Speaker 2: Dak in the regular season then we do Deshaun Watson

791
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 2: at a pick right. So that's where my head's aret

792
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 2: right now. So I'm gonna pass with that one for now.

793
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 1: We got three more games. We still owe the big balls.

794
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 1: Washington at Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay minus four.

795
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 2: Another rookie on the road, and it's stuff where it's like, dude,

796
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 2: do you feel good back in Baker at minus four?

797
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 2: I don't. I want to take the rookie at plus

798
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 2: four on the high upside of the unknown, so I'll

799
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 2: be convinced on it. But am I putting money on

800
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 2: that right now? Hell no, I got no read on

801
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 2: this one. I got him modeled out at three. So yeah,

802
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 2: the value right now is definitely Washington, and I feel

803
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 2: like that's right. But not going to rush to bed

804
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 2: at another game. I'm okay sitting here letting this number

805
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 2: move around. But you know, Washington, they are another team

806
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 2: that's gonna getting a lot of hype. I'm telling you

807
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 2: before the season starts, just because this kid Daniels, if

808
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 2: he has one, if he breaks out one run in

809
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:37,359
Speaker 2: the preseason, it's gonna take off this Washington hype train,

810
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:39,839
Speaker 2: just because it's the first guy they really had since

811
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:43,359
Speaker 2: what you know, RG three. This kind of athleticism that's

812
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 2: just exciting to watch. So yeah, the Daniels. Just seeing

813
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 2: him at that picture day, even actually sitting next to

814
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,759
Speaker 2: your quarterback Williams, it's like, holy shit, man Daniels. They

815
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 2: kept talking about skinny and shit he was. It's like

816
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 2: he looks pretty damn big than me. So definitely exciting

817
00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 2: times in Washington. And then plus four plus four, I

818
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 2: can't get over that Baker's minus four against the team.

819
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 2: But I guess it makes sense, right rookie on the

820
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 2: road here, So we'll just keep waiting on this one.

821
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, to me, that's not a bookmaker's looking at Baker.

822
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 1: That's a bookmaker's looking at Washington and the perception of

823
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 1: Washington and Jaden Daniels. And look, the Bucks did make

824
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Baker played great at the end of the year.

825
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:23,759
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826
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,120
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827
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 1: who has everything? You give him a winning bet, But

828
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 1: since those can't be guaranteed, give him an experience he'll

829
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:38,320
Speaker 1: never forget. You give him Omaha Steaks, because a world

830
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:41,920
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831
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,920
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832
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833
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834
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,840
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835
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836
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837
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838
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839
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842
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843
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844
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:44,920
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845
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846
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:59,879
Speaker 1: In the last two games on the schedule, Detroit three

847
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite against the Rams. Let's do

848
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 1: them together. Jets five and a half point underdogs. Monday

849
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 1: Night football debut for Aaron Rogers back to back seasons.

850
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:26,319
Speaker 1: Let's see if he can survive the first series. But

851
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 1: I will tell you I feel good with the nine

852
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:34,439
Speaker 1: or with the Jets or the Rams. As a big

853
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:37,239
Speaker 1: balls bet of the week here, I think we are

854
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:43,960
Speaker 1: getting significant percentage value in the hook on both games.

855
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 2: The big balls better. The week's gotta be the Rams. Yeah,

856
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 2: come on, plus three and a half. This obviously doesn't

857
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 2: take that big of balls. Anyone out there is more

858
00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 2: than happy to take the hook on the Rams. My

859
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 2: viewed of is this is insane. Detroit's crazy over value here.

860
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:04,439
Speaker 2: Even though I have them power rate is the number

861
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 2: three best team in the NFC. I really don't have

862
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 2: the Rams that far below them, honestly, Like, the biggest

863
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 2: difference here is just, you know, overall, Detroit's a more

864
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:18,360
Speaker 2: complete team than the Rams because the Rams just have

865
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 2: not had first round draft picks. So Detroit's been incredible

866
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 2: at drafting these last couple of seasons, and that's definitely

867
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 2: the big difference here. But public reception is really the

868
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 2: driver of this number. Like this is going to be

869
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 2: three by kickoff for two and a half. There's no

870
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 2: way the professionals don't hit this on the Rams. If

871
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 2: you have if you have a healthy Stafford I mean

872
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 2: again Williams mean now would be a big deal. They

873
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 2: took that kid from Michigan, so they already have another

874
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:43,799
Speaker 2: running back that can step in. That's, you know, to me,

875
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:47,759
Speaker 2: a playmaker. So yeah, I'm not trying to go too

876
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 2: overbold heere, but I love this Rams team so much,

877
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 2: so this is a bet that I made right when

878
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 2: it came out. I've been hitting it and I talked

879
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 2: to book makers. They don't mind it because they're getting

880
00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,840
Speaker 2: tons of money here on Detroit, not only in moneyline

881
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 2: part teasers. Just the public loves this team, the Detroit

882
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,759
Speaker 2: so the Rams don't let it be scared off that

883
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 2: this Houck is stage this whole time. I love this

884
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:08,239
Speaker 2: Rams team.

885
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 1: It's interesting to me that when you say you're talking

886
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:14,319
Speaker 1: to book makers, my sense from what you're saying right

887
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 1: now is that there's already public money coming in on

888
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 1: these and normally with lines getting posted this early, you know,

889
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:25,880
Speaker 1: professionals would take their bites and it would be pretty

890
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 1: dormant for the public. Is that the the sense you're

891
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:32,319
Speaker 1: getting for bookmakers, is it the public is coming in?

892
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:34,800
Speaker 2: Well say, you must not be on social media and

893
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 2: everyone's professional now, Chad, So I guess that's true. Yeah,

894
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:39,840
Speaker 2: Joe Schmoe's walking in there thinking they're beating the books.

895
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 2: They're the sharp guy. But yeah, they, like you said,

896
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 2: they're the public. So I think it's more that people

897
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:48,759
Speaker 2: just love football. That's been the biggest shift, right the

898
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 2: itch for it, where it's like you're right, most people

899
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:53,720
Speaker 2: don't want to tie their money up for three months.

900
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 2: But people are just so into it they don't mind

901
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:58,000
Speaker 2: doing it right now. They're just like they feel like

902
00:45:58,000 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 2: they're getting a good number in Hey, they might be,

903
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 2: but I'm with you. I am shocked how much money

904
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 2: is coming early here on different different games. It's just like, wow,

905
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 2: people cannot wait for football to kick off. I mean,

906
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 2: people are just so damn excited.

907
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 1: All right, Well, the last game, Jet said Niners Niners

908
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 1: five and a half point favorites off sides. You like

909
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:20,760
Speaker 1: the Niners?

910
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:22,799
Speaker 2: I know, yeah, I got this. I got I told

911
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 2: you I got them number one, And like I know,

912
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 2: a couple of people scoffed at it. Guess who fucking

913
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 2: has them number one too? All the sports books they're

914
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 2: favored in every game, even against the Chiefs, they're favored

915
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:35,839
Speaker 2: against them. That's what it's like, attracts waiting people. That's

916
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:37,720
Speaker 2: the hardest part of this job. It's like, no shit,

917
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 2: we think the Chiefs are the best team in football.

918
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,840
Speaker 2: They just won the fucking Super Bowl. No one's model

919
00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:44,880
Speaker 2: has the Chiefs as the number one team. They have

920
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 2: so many fucking holes they're they're just I don't even

921
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 2: think they're probably even most most people have that number

922
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:52,720
Speaker 2: one in the AFC when they bringing them to their model.

923
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 2: It's just models came for. I can't account for how

924
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 2: incredible Mahomes is. So forty nine Ers are the best

925
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:01,360
Speaker 2: team in football, Like, I hate, I hate it, but

926
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 2: I have him power at number one. So the books

927
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 2: are favorite in every single game this season. It's not shocking.

928
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 2: They're just so complete. So I wanted to bet the

929
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:12,880
Speaker 2: Jets here. I'm pissed that I don't have value on

930
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:14,479
Speaker 2: them because I thought when I first sat the number,

931
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, this is a good number, Like, I

932
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:17,880
Speaker 2: bet my mode's gonna have this at three three and

933
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 2: a half. Nope, make it, make it a touchdown. It's

934
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:22,880
Speaker 2: like Jesus Christ, I just can't believe the forty nine

935
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 2: ers are that good. Yeah, So it could be also

936
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 2: that maybe I'm not adjusted enough in my own head

937
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:33,360
Speaker 2: compared to the computer. That Aaron Rodgers is in his

938
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 2: forties coming off a major injury. Now he's on the

939
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 2: road playing against, you know, the arguably the best team

940
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 2: in football. It's like in a stadium, he struggles, right,

941
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:45,839
Speaker 2: I mean, think of all the times he went from

942
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 2: Green Bay and played there, whatever it is, mentally, he

943
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 2: obviously does struggle there, so I know it in my head.

944
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:53,759
Speaker 2: I was like pumped for it because I told you

945
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:57,320
Speaker 2: I like the Jets's here. I'm a buyer. But yeah,

946
00:47:57,560 --> 00:47:59,320
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, right, team, I'm not having a

947
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 2: lot of moneyline lazy and teasers. They're a team I

948
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 2: really like in this Week one matchup of I think

949
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 2: they're being a little undervalued here, that they're actually better

950
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 2: than people perceive. So not shocking that a couple of

951
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:12,080
Speaker 2: pros I've talked to of coming on the Jets, right.

952
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 2: I think Chad has the same view of it. It's

953
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:15,840
Speaker 2: like that's a lot of points for Week one, especially

954
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 2: for Rodgers. But I'm gonna trust them outl on this

955
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 2: one and just think I'm overrating Rogers and the Jets

956
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 2: in my mind, where this will be a good parameter,

957
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 2: right if they come out and they do cover or

958
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:28,919
Speaker 2: beat this number, Honestly, I'll make me happy because Tad

959
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:30,880
Speaker 2: knows I have a bunch of futures. I'm invested in

960
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:33,400
Speaker 2: this Jets team, but I'm gonna trust my model here.

961
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:34,840
Speaker 2: I'm back to forty nine Ers.

962
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 1: The joy a rational joy I get when you tell

963
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:44,319
Speaker 1: me that you like my exact decision. I've forgotten how

964
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:47,280
Speaker 1: happy I love it this in the past five months.

965
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 1: Recap our Foxhoul.

966
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 2: It's gonna be so gross. I can't wait to go.

967
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 2: Let me hear.

968
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:59,400
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh plus three is our Foxhole. Well, you recommend people

969
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 1: take Jacksonville and Miami over forty nine because you got

970
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 1: that at about fifty one. New York Jets minus.

971
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 2: One is Giants giants.

972
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: I mean New York Giants minus one even worse because

973
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 1: they are assigning so much worse. I was maybe I

974
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:19,720
Speaker 1: was just in my head hoping it had change the Jets.

975
00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 1: The exec decision is the Indianapolis Colts plus one and

976
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 1: a half at home against the Houston Texans are big

977
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:35,680
Speaker 1: balls better the week? What are the offseason? Los Angeles

978
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,719
Speaker 1: Rams plast three and a half on the road on

979
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 1: Sunday Night football against the Detroit Lions. Caveat Again. We

980
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:46,920
Speaker 1: are investing in these games now, but these are all

981
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 1: subject to change when we actually do the Week one podcast.

982
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 1: But we did want to give people a little bit

983
00:49:52,760 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 1: of taste of what we're thinking about it.

984
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 2: Likes they don't, but chance it's three months from now,

985
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:02,720
Speaker 2: like it's something crazy. Shit's going to happen, right yead,

986
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 2: So there's always that out people don't they'll hold this

987
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:05,799
Speaker 2: to it too hard.

988
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 1: One hundred and five days from today it all starts.

989
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 2: That's not bad.

990
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 1: Honestly, it's honestly not bad. I can, I can, I can.

991
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 1: Basically we can make it see it. We're five weeks

992
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 1: from the beginning of July, and July is kind of

993
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:25,279
Speaker 1: like a shut down month, so then we're really just

994
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 1: five weeks from August, and if you look at it

995
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:33,239
Speaker 1: that way, by and by August, then we're launching our

996
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:37,759
Speaker 1: division previews, where we got you know, every single episode

997
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 1: Tuesday Thursday, Tuesday Thursday throughout the month we are doing

998
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 1: a division preview and those were amazing last year. We

999
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:47,840
Speaker 1: had so much fun doing those. So we're getting there, buddy,

1000
00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 1: We're getting there. As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is

1001
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:54,399
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1015
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Speaker 1: the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Tuesday one,

1016
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 1: five pm Eastern with Rustin Dodd, author of the new

1017
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1020
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1021
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1022
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Speaker 1: books into bestsellers. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever

1023
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 1: you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, le us five stars,

1024
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:11,880
Speaker 1: say whatever you want, feedback is a gift until Tuesday.

1025
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:12,839
Speaker 2: Love You.

1026
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:23,840
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1027
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