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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. It's good all right

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Speaker 1: here we are. You're saying it to catch touchdowns. See

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Speaker 1: most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right. This is the ultimate Kaban and we are

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Speaker 1: what's up everybody.

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Speaker 2: I am your host, Chris Raybon, joined as always by

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Speaker 2: one of the top rankers in the game, Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 2: And this is the Experts Guide to Fantasy Football. In

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Speaker 2: this episode, Sean and I are going to go over

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Speaker 2: a big picture approach for how you can dominate your

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Speaker 2: fantasy football leagues if you are a little bit newer

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Speaker 2: to the game or you just want to kind of

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Speaker 2: brush up on how to get to that top level.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna go over everything from positional scarcity to winning

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Speaker 2: the flex position, you know, missed games, how you can

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Speaker 2: kind of profit from different draft positions when they don't matter,

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Speaker 2: it don't matter. We're gonna talk about ceilings, floors and

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Speaker 2: volatility and projections. We're gonna talk about how to draft

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Speaker 2: off rankings using ADP. We talk about finding busts, preseason research,

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Speaker 2: draft prep, mid season strategy, pretty much everything you need

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Speaker 2: to dominate your fantasy football league.

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Speaker 1: Sean, are you ready? I am ready, all right, man,

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Speaker 1: So I like to hear.

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Speaker 2: So we're gonna start off with a big picture approach,

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Speaker 2: and I think the first thing to talk about is

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Speaker 2: positional scarcity, because on every draft board you see running

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Speaker 2: backs at the top, see quarterbacks further down.

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Speaker 1: So just explain to the people kind of why is that. So.

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Speaker 3: I mean, running back is the most crucial position in

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Speaker 3: fantasy especially these days, because a lot of teams use

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Speaker 3: running back by committees where they lean on two or

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Speaker 3: three different backs throughout the game. So we have very

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Speaker 3: few workhorse backs that see most of the team's touches

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Speaker 3: out of the backfield. So there is some position scarcy there.

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Speaker 3: But also running back is a very vulnerable position in general.

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Speaker 3: It's the position that takes the most hit string game,

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Speaker 3: so it's the most likely position to see injuries and

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Speaker 3: you know, missing time. So it's so huge and so

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Speaker 3: valuable when you do get a workhorse running back that's

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Speaker 3: putting up top five production of the position all season long.

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Speaker 3: So that's what we're trying to do, and that's why

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Speaker 3: you see running backs go early in drafts, is because

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Speaker 3: it's irreplaceable, trying to find a workhorse back. So that's

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Speaker 3: why you're trying to get that early on, but we

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Speaker 3: could talk about later. There are you know, paths to

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Speaker 3: getting that value later in drafts at running back. That's

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Speaker 3: why I don't think it's necessary that you draft a

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Speaker 3: running back in the first round. I think it depends

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Speaker 3: where you are, but certainly in the first few picks,

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Speaker 3: running back is typically the way to go.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think you know, to add to your point,

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Speaker 2: you talk about those workhorse backs, whereas at wide receiver,

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Speaker 2: you know, even a team's second wide receiver is usually

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Speaker 2: going to play eighty five ninety percent of the snaps

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Speaker 2: every game, so there's just more kind of snaps going

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Speaker 2: around where there are not many running backs that.

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Speaker 1: Are going to play that many snaps. All right, let's talk.

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Speaker 2: About the other two positions that kind of go hand

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Speaker 2: in hand, and that's tight end quarterback and it you know,

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Speaker 2: traditional redraft league, you are going to be starting one

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Speaker 2: quarterback and one tight end. You may have a flex

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Speaker 2: that you can also put a tight end into, but

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Speaker 2: tight ends are lower scoring, so you generally do not

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Speaker 2: want to aim to have a tight end in your

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Speaker 2: flex position. There are special leagues you know that have

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Speaker 2: tight end premium scoring, but we're kind of talking about

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Speaker 2: more standard redraft leagues here, traditional league. So what I

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Speaker 2: want to ask you, Sean, is you know, tight end

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Speaker 2: tends to be a position that you know we target

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Speaker 2: a stud at earlier. You know, maybe it's a Travis

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Speaker 2: Kelcey or a Mark Andrews Worth quarterback. The most popular

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Speaker 2: sharp strategy tends to be to wait on quarterback.

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Speaker 1: So why is that the.

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Speaker 2: Tight end tends to be more valuable to draft early

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Speaker 2: than quarterback.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so tight end quarterback are what people often refer

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Speaker 3: to as onesie positions. Like you said, a typical league,

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Speaker 3: you're only starting what either one tight end or one quarterback,

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Speaker 3: So when it comes to tight end, it's a lot

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Speaker 3: more top heavy. You have to remember that the tight

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Speaker 3: end position is partially an offensive lineman, so they're going

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Speaker 3: to be blocking at times. They'll be going out for

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Speaker 3: passes sometimes. But you have elite tight ends like a

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Speaker 3: Mark Andrews or Travis Kelsey, they're going out for a pass,

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Speaker 3: you know, eighty five to ninety percent of the time

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Speaker 3: their quarterback drops back, whereas other tight ends might stay

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Speaker 3: in and block. So there's a huge talent gap and

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Speaker 3: just volume gap from the top tight ends and say

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Speaker 3: you're tight end twenty. So that's why you kind of

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Speaker 3: want to target tight ends early on, is because there

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Speaker 3: is a more significant and sharp drop off from the

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Speaker 3: studs from the from the you know, the tight end twenties,

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Speaker 3: the tight end thirties, whereas quarterbacks you know you're gonna

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Speaker 3: have every given week, there's thirty two quarterbacks taking about

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Speaker 3: one hundred percent of the snaps under center, so they

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Speaker 3: all have equal opportunity. Now, granted, you know, Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 3: is way better than a Zach Wilson, but still the

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Speaker 3: opportunity is still there, so that the production is a

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Speaker 3: lot tighter and it's a lot easier to find value

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Speaker 3: week week on the waiver wire. So that's why tight

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Speaker 3: end it's so crucial to take one of these elite

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Speaker 3: tight ends early on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think even with quarterback, when you just

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Speaker 2: look at you know, trying to find upside, you know,

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Speaker 2: it's easier to spot later on. Like for example, this year,

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Speaker 2: you know, Jalen Hurts is going outside the top six,

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Speaker 2: Trey Lance is going outside the top ten. You could

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Speaker 2: kind of see those guys having those high upside seasons

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Speaker 2: where you can't really look at like a Albert okuebu

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Speaker 2: Nam and say, oh, yeah, he's gonna he has the

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Speaker 2: same upside Travis Kelsey does because he doesn't. So uh yeah,

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Speaker 2: it tight end tends to be that one of those

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Speaker 2: positions that we target early on in draft. But I

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Speaker 2: want to get into defining some terms real quick before

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Speaker 2: we move on, because people might hear us talk about

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Speaker 2: you know, RB one, an RB two, a wide receiver one,

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Speaker 2: a wide receiver two. All those mean are we're referring

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Speaker 2: to their slot in your lineup. So most lineups are

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Speaker 2: going to start two running backs, two wide receivers, and

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Speaker 2: a flex. So RB one just means you know, your

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Speaker 2: first running back in that first slot, and your RB

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Speaker 2: two just means your your second, and the same thing

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Speaker 2: for wide receivers.

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Speaker 1: I just wanted to throw that out there before we.

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Speaker 3: And typically RB one means the top twelve running backs,

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Speaker 3: so we're assuming a twelve team league is usually the default,

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Speaker 3: so RB one would be running backs one through twelve

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Speaker 3: anywhere in there. Some leagues of defaults are ten teams

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Speaker 3: standard scoring, believe it or not, and two wide receivers.

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Speaker 1: But I would say the appropriate.

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Speaker 3: Default should be twelve team half PPR and you're starting

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Speaker 3: three wide receivers and a flex.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's the that's what we like.

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Speaker 2: But I'm this is a beginner's pod, So I'm guessing

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Speaker 2: at the most people listening are probably playing ESPN or Yahoo.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I know, ESPN is the ten team PPR.

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Speaker 2: Yahoo's the ten team half PPR. Both of them are

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Speaker 2: doing two wide receivers, two running backs, and a flex.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, we're generally talking about that first tier of

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Speaker 2: running backs, you know, ten to twelve for RB one,

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Speaker 2: you know, and then the you know, the thirteen to

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Speaker 2: twenty four, the eleven to twenty whatever you want to

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Speaker 2: call it, depending on your leak size for the RB two,

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Speaker 2: and so on and so forth.

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Speaker 1: But there are some i.

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Speaker 2: Think important distinctions between the positions.

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Speaker 1: Besides just you know.

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Speaker 2: Kind of looking at running back, it's scarcity versus wide receiver,

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Speaker 2: and tight end versus quarterback. Something that's important to know

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Speaker 2: is that these positions generally have different games played expectation.

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Speaker 2: I know, you do a good job kind of differentiating

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Speaker 2: between this, so talk to the people about that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So when it comes to quarterback. Typically you would

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Speaker 3: expect your average pocket passer quarterback to miss about a

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Speaker 3: half game a season. Obviously there's a wide range of

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Speaker 3: outcomes with that, but in general, I doc a Tom Brady,

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Speaker 3: let's say half a game, So instead of projecting him

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Speaker 3: for seventeen games, I'm projecting him for sixteen and a half.

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Speaker 3: Whereas you know a quarterback like Lamar Jackson that's probably

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Speaker 3: scrambling a lot more, more prone to injury. Because of that,

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Speaker 3: I'll project him with about one miss game. It really

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Speaker 3: depends on player to player, especially if they're you know,

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Speaker 3: dealing with an injury heading into the season, like a

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Speaker 3: Matthew Stafford. But typically I project starting quarterbacks between a

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Speaker 3: half or one game missed, whereas running backs, I know

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Speaker 3: you might differ a little bit on this, but typically

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Speaker 3: two games missed I would say for running backs makes sense.

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Speaker 3: I already mentioned this is you know, the most fragile

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Speaker 3: position where it's taking a lot of hits in game.

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Speaker 3: You know, if they tweak a hamstring, they can't play

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Speaker 3: through it as easily as other positions. So typically running

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Speaker 3: backs I project for two miss games. Give or take

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Speaker 3: wide receiver, it'd be closer to maybe one one and

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Speaker 3: a half games a little bit less than a running back,

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Speaker 3: and tight ends similar to wide receiver. I'd say about

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Speaker 3: one to one and a half games missed on average

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Speaker 3: for each player.

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Speaker 1: Makes makes a ton of sense.

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Speaker 2: And the reason that's so important is because you have

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Speaker 2: to think of the positions relative to each other when

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Speaker 2: you're valuing them. You know, for example, in your top

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Speaker 2: let's say twenty four, you're going to have a certain

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Speaker 2: amount of running backs and a certain amount of wide

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Speaker 2: receivers and usually a couple of tight ends. Well, you know,

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Speaker 2: even if you have the running backs and wide receivers,

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Speaker 2: let's say in the first round projected for you know,

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Speaker 2: the same amount of points per game, because running backs

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Speaker 2: are going to miss more games than wide receivers. You know,

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Speaker 2: those running backs are are going to now you know,

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Speaker 2: have a lower season long.

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Speaker 1: Projected point total.

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Speaker 2: So that's why I think it's important is to kind

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Speaker 2: of get the differential. And I actually, you know, with

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Speaker 2: COVID and just the new IR rules and there's all

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Speaker 2: these different things that are kind of happening the seven

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Speaker 2: same game season. I wanted to check out, you know,

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Speaker 2: just last season, how everything stacked up by position for

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Speaker 2: running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, and it turns

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Speaker 2: out that wide receivers their median miss games.

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Speaker 1: Was still one.

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Speaker 2: So they so the top top three wide receiver who

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Speaker 2: played in Week one, which is essentially you know what

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Speaker 2: you're going to be drafting, played median of sixteen games.

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Speaker 2: For a number one tight end, they played a median

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Speaker 2: of fifteen games, and then for a top two running

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Speaker 2: back who was on a roster in Week one, fourteen games.

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Speaker 1: So that was pretty interesting. I thought.

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Speaker 2: You know, wide receivers tend to be the position that

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Speaker 2: misses the least amount of games. So you know, when

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Speaker 2: you're looking at, like, let's say a guy like Jamar

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Speaker 2: Chase in the first round, you're comparing him to a

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Speaker 2: guy like Joe Mixon. You know, even if they are

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Speaker 2: projected for the same amount of points, you would expect

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Speaker 2: Chase to miss probably about a game less than an

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Speaker 2: or maybe even one and a half to two mixing.

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Speaker 2: So that does kind of affect how you how you

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Speaker 2: draft because essentially, you know you're always going to have

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Speaker 2: to account for those For example, if you start two

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Speaker 2: running backs and you can only count on each running

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Speaker 2: back for fourteen to fifteen games, but you need, you know, seventeen,

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Speaker 2: because there's also gonna be a bye week.

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Speaker 1: You really need a whole extra running back.

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Speaker 2: So like you're starting two running backs, but you really

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Speaker 2: need to treat it as if you're starting three running backs,

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Speaker 2: because you're gonna need a whole extra set of games,

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Speaker 2: you know, to kind of make up for the fact

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Speaker 2: that you're gonna you're gonna have to You're gonna miss

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Speaker 2: the first two guys are.

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Speaker 1: Gonna miss games.

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Speaker 2: So that that's just really important, I think for people

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Speaker 2: to think about and just and also just thinking about

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Speaker 2: the upside and floors of different positions relative to each other.

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Speaker 2: Whide receivers are just gonna give you the most bang

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Speaker 2: for your buck generally. Uh okay, let's go on to

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Speaker 2: and talk about something we call streaming, which is, you know,

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Speaker 2: we kind of talked about positional scarcity. You know, there

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Speaker 2: are the way I kind of differentiate it is you

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Speaker 2: have your high score positions, and you have your low

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Speaker 2: scoring positions, and then you have your high demand positions

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Speaker 2: in your load demand position. So quarterback is high scoring,

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Speaker 2: but it's low demand, it's high supply. There's always gonna

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Speaker 2: be extra guys on the waiver wire. The same thing

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Speaker 2: is true with kicker and defense. They're low scoring, but

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Speaker 2: you know there's always going to be extras on the

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Speaker 2: waiver wire. So those three positions in particular, you can

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Speaker 2: also do it with tight end, but quarterback, kicker defense,

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Speaker 2: just because you have so much you know, excess supply

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Speaker 2: on the waiver wire that you could kind of get

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Speaker 2: a similar point total from a guy like let's say,

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Speaker 2: you know, a two A tongue of I looa could

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Speaker 2: be sitting on your waiver wire and he might only

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Speaker 2: be a couple of points off from a guy like

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Speaker 2: Dak Prescott, let's say, especially in a given week if

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Speaker 2: he has a good matchup. So that's you know, so

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Speaker 2: explain to people kind of what streaming is and how

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Speaker 2: they can use the waiver wire at the quarterback, kicker, defense,

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Speaker 2: especially to kind of get an edge and not have

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Speaker 2: to waste picks on these positions.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's how I would describe it, not wasting picks.

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Speaker 3: So I never waste a pick on a kicker or

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Speaker 3: a defense. I usually instead of drafting a kicker defense,

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Speaker 3: if your league allows, I just draft two more backup

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Speaker 3: running backs way later in the draft, just in case

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Speaker 3: there's you know, an injury pops up and they become

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Speaker 3: a starter for week one. It's just kind of a

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Speaker 3: free lottery ticket, I would call it. But by the

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Speaker 3: time we get to week one, I'm going to stream

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Speaker 3: a kicker defense, meaning I'm going to just add a

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Speaker 3: kicker and defense from the waiver wire and any Since

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Speaker 3: these positions are so dependent on matchup any given week,

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Speaker 3: I can usually find a top five kicker or top

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Speaker 3: five defense in my projections. So all season long, you know,

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Speaker 3: I'm essentially having a top five kicker defense without even

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Speaker 3: drafting the position. So you know, when it comes to

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Speaker 3: those positions, I just love having them a flexibility of

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Speaker 3: not just hanging on to somebody. You know, if you

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Speaker 3: have a kicker like a Harrison Bucker or something, you

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Speaker 3: know there's gonna be some weeks where maybe he's outside

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Speaker 3: of the top ten. If the Chiefs have a bad

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Speaker 3: matchup bye week, you have to add somebody. When you're

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Speaker 3: streaming kicker in defense, you have the maximum flexibility. So

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Speaker 3: I love that as well. And quarterback is actually I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's the most valuable position in real life, but in

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Speaker 3: fantasy it's pretty easy to stream. There's been seasons where

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Speaker 3: I don't draft a quarterback, and I'm still able to

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Speaker 3: either stream, you know, like a top eight quarterback or

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Speaker 3: end up having a top five quarterback anyway, just from

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Speaker 3: landing gold on the waiver. Are like Justin Herbert a

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Speaker 3: couple years ago, I was able to pick him up

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Speaker 3: in a few leagues. So when it comes to quarterback,

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Speaker 3: like you said, any given week, you're gonna have guys

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Speaker 3: like Tua, Kirk, Cousins, Derek Carr possibly available, and one

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Speaker 3: of them is going to have a pretty good matchup

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Speaker 3: that week. So typically you'll see a quarterback on your

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Speaker 3: waiver that's being ranked as a top twelve quarterback anyway.

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Speaker 3: So it's a very nice safety net to have at

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Speaker 3: the position. Like you said, there's a ton of good

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks now. The NFL is loaded with starking caliber elite quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: So right now it's easier than ever to stream the

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Speaker 3: QB position, meaning you don't have to necessarily take a

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Speaker 3: quarterback early on.

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Speaker 2: And I want to, you know, to drive the point home,

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Speaker 2: I want to give an example. Last season, Justin Fields

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Speaker 2: his last four games that he started and finished because

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Speaker 2: he got hurt in one of them, but the other

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Speaker 2: four he finished QB two, QB eleven, QB nine to

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Speaker 2: be ten. So justin fields with no help around him

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Speaker 2: in Matt Naggy's system as a rookie with the worst

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Speaker 2: QBR in the entire NFL, you know, gave you a

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Speaker 2: QB eight finish over his last four you know, complete starts,

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Speaker 2: and even if you factor in the other start, you know,

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Speaker 2: it's still a pretty solid, you know streamer there. So

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Speaker 2: and he you know, he was a guy that you

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Speaker 2: could have just picked up because you.

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Speaker 1: Know, nobody really wanted to touch him.

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Speaker 2: But so, I think that's what's important, is with the

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Speaker 2: quarterback especially, it's not just looking for those matchups, it's

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Speaker 2: also looking for that rushing upside. Like I feel like

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Speaker 2: every week this year you're gonna have a Falcons quarterback

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Speaker 2: that is going to be a good streamer because it's

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Speaker 2: either going to be Mariota or it's gonna be Ritter

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Speaker 2: and they both can run, so h and those guys

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Speaker 2: are like, you know, they're gonna be available in pretty

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Speaker 2: much every waiver wire in a single QB week. So

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Speaker 2: you know, those are the things you need to look

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Speaker 2: out for, uh, when you're streaming the quarterback position, and

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Speaker 2: you know to your point, roster spots are essentially meant

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Speaker 2: to find high upside running backs and wide receivers, like

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Speaker 2: they are valuable commodities.

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Speaker 1: You do not want to waste.

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Speaker 2: Uh roster spot, more than one roster spot on any

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Speaker 2: of a quarterback, kicker, defense, even a tight end. I

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Speaker 2: would I would say, like, I don't really like to

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Speaker 2: have an extra tight end on.

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Speaker 1: My roster either.

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Speaker 2: But here's the thing where I love your point about

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Speaker 2: not about streaming kickers and defense is because let's say

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Speaker 2: you draft Justin Tucker right now, not only did you

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Speaker 2: use a pick on Justin Tucker that you could have

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Speaker 2: been and you know, having an extra running back for

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Speaker 2: maybe a week or two, you know, maybe something comes

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Speaker 2: of it. But now what happens when you get to

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Speaker 2: a bye week. You're probably gonna be invested in Justin

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Speaker 2: Tucker and you're gonna want to keep him on your

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Speaker 2: bench and then have to pick up another kicker. So

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Speaker 2: now you're wasting an extra roster spot on the kicker.

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Speaker 1: You know. It's just like it's just it's just not

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Speaker 1: optimal to do.

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Speaker 2: So that's why you know, kicker and defense especially, you

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Speaker 2: know streaming if you can. And I would say, if

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Speaker 2: you're newer to Fantasy, one of the easiest cheat codes

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Speaker 2: you can do is to actually just don't draft a

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Speaker 2: quarterback when everyone else is just wait and just draft

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Speaker 2: one in like the last round or the last couple

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Speaker 2: of rounds that has a good week one matchup and

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Speaker 2: go from there, because most people are gonna draft like

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Speaker 2: a quarterback in the first you know, six, seven rounds,

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Speaker 2: maybe eight rounds, and for you to have that extra

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Speaker 2: running back or that extra wide receiver, it's just gonna

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Speaker 2: make your life so much easier because when you're setting

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Speaker 2: your lineup, because you're always going to know exactly who

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Speaker 2: to put in that quarterback position, but having an extra

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00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,040
Speaker 2: running back with a with a good matchup that you

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Speaker 2: can slide in and instead of having to worry about

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Speaker 2: you know some like you know fringe, you know guy

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Speaker 2: who's going to get like eight touches in my gosh,

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Speaker 2: should I start him with this? With this wide receiver

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Speaker 2: who's going to get like three catches? I got it,

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Speaker 2: you know what I mean. Like, it's just going to

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Speaker 2: be so much easier if you have that one extra

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Speaker 2: Like it makes such a big difference. You just have

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Speaker 2: that one extra guy each week giving you startable value

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Speaker 2: of running back or at wide receiver.

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Speaker 3: And this also stems from your point earlier about running

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Speaker 3: backs missing. I guess last year at the meeting was

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Speaker 3: three games.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a position for you guys coming in, dealing

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Speaker 3: with injury and guys stepping up. So that's the position

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Speaker 3: I typically have the most exposure to on my bench.

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Speaker 3: So I'll have four or five running backs at a

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Speaker 3: time on my bench. So you're exactly right. You want

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Speaker 3: to save your bench as just a running back depth

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00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,080
Speaker 3: chart so speak. Because the position is so volatile, you

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Speaker 3: need to have depth there. And it's very tough to

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Speaker 3: find guys on the wave war that can you know,

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Speaker 3: step right into your lineup. So it's it's critical to

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Speaker 3: kind of stash as many running backs as possible.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll tell you this, Like I've I've drafted and

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Speaker 2: mock drafted and simulated so many teams this year, and

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Speaker 2: like I like my teams a whole lot better when

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Speaker 2: I just don't draft a quarterback in those first ten rounds.

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Speaker 2: Like it's just I loved Jalen Hurts this year. I

395
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Speaker 2: like to get him on some teams. Trey Lance, I,

396
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:21,399
Speaker 2: you know, used to be able to get him outside

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Speaker 2: the top ten. Now people are kind of wising up

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Speaker 2: to that. So it's like the best teams come when

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00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 2: you just get that extra running back and you go

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Speaker 2: in the first ten rounds and you have like, you know,

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Speaker 2: four running backs and five receivers in a tight end.

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Speaker 1: It's just going to make your life so much easier

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Speaker 1: from week to week.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about the flex position next, because

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Speaker 2: pretty much every week these days has a flex position

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Speaker 2: with that is is a position where you can start

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Speaker 2: a running back, a wide receiver, or a tight end.

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Speaker 2: So I want to talk to you about how how

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Speaker 2: do you kind of approach the flex position, how do

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Speaker 2: you decide you know which position you want to start

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Speaker 2: in there, and how does it affect your draft strategy.

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Speaker 3: So I don't really go out of my way to

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Speaker 3: think about the flex position per se, It all stems

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Speaker 3: from my draft process of just trying to load up

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Speaker 3: at running back and wide receiver to begin with. You

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Speaker 3: solve your flex problem that way because you're typically going

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Speaker 3: to be using your highest ranked running back or wide

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00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,040
Speaker 3: receiver on your bench that week in your flex Whereas,

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Speaker 3: like you said, you're you're typically not rostering more than

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Speaker 3: one tight end anyway, So that's not really a position

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Speaker 3: that you're ever using in the flex outside of extreme circumstances.

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Speaker 3: But just by having solid wide receiver and running back depth,

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00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 3: you're going to handle the flex you know, situation itself.

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Speaker 3: So that's why I just think it's one of the

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00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,639
Speaker 3: many reasons why just attacking running back and wide receiver

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Speaker 3: early on makes a lot of sense. And don't be

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Speaker 3: afraid to start filling out your bench even when there's

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Speaker 3: good quarterbacks on the board. Like you said, just hunting

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Speaker 3: quarterback altogether it can be a good strategy because you

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Speaker 3: do want to build up your running back and wide

431
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,880
Speaker 3: receiver death because of that flex slot. So it all

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Speaker 3: goes hand in hand. So I'm not necessarily thinking about

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Speaker 3: my flex per se, but my overall draft strategy certainly

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Speaker 3: caters to that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just comes down to when you're drafting, you're

436
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 2: gonna see, you know, on your league settings, it's gonna

437
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 2: tell you your starting liner requirements, and you're gonna see,

438
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 2: you know, two running backs, two wide receivers, one flex

439
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 2: and then so what you really want to keep in

440
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 2: mind is that and you're also gonna have obviously a

441
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 2: quarterback and a tight end. Like your flex is gonna be,

442
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 2: you have to treat it like another running back and

443
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 2: another wide receiver. So it's like, what we're trying to

444
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 2: say is just because you start two running backs two

445
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,640
Speaker 2: wide receivers in a flex, don't be afraid to take

446
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 2: your third running back or your fourth wide receiver before

447
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 2: you take your quarterback.

448
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:46,680
Speaker 1: Like you don't.

449
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 2: Your starting lineup is not just those two running backs

450
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,440
Speaker 2: two wide receivers in a flex. It's two running backs,

451
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 2: two wide receivers in a flex plus all those misgames

452
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,440
Speaker 2: you have to account from your running backs, your wide receivers,

453
00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 2: your flex. Do you need really, you know, like an

454
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,160
Speaker 2: ex extra player at each of those positions. You need

455
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 2: an extra running back, an extra wide receiver, and an

456
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 2: extra flex which could be a running back or a

457
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 2: wide receiver. And that's just going to come down to,

458
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 2: you know, where where the value is in your draft,

459
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 2: and you know that's what you can You can look

460
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,400
Speaker 2: at our rankings for and see, you know how we're

461
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 2: kind of ranking you know, running backs versus the wide receivers.

462
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 2: As you get into the sixth, seventh, eighth round, we're

463
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 2: probably going to be taking those players that are going

464
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 2: to end up in those spots.

465
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 3: But and I will say just real quickly that there's

466
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 3: leagues where there's a super flex where you can play

467
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 3: a quarterback and that changes the game dramatically.

468
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 1: So if you're in a two QB or a.

469
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 3: Super flex league, the quarterback position becomes even more valuable.

470
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 3: We have been talking about punting quarterbacks because of the

471
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 3: difference between the QB twelve and the QB you know

472
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 3: twenty isn't that big of a deal. But when you're

473
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 3: in a two QB league, most of the starting quarterbacks

474
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 3: in the league are going to be drafted and there

475
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 3: is a huge drop off from QB thirty two to

476
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 3: QB thirty three because one of them is starting in

477
00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 3: one of them isn't. So quarterbacks become insanely valuable and

478
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 3: two QB and super flex formats, So I just want

479
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:04,679
Speaker 3: to make that clear. If you're in a super flex,

480
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 3: you're absolutely trying to get two quarterbacks I would say

481
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 3: before the end of round five typically, But that those

482
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 3: kind of leagues makes the quarterback way more valuable.

483
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, because if you and if you're in a you know,

484
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 2: a ten teamer, you know you're gonna there's gonna be

485
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: thirty quarterbacks that essentially need to be drafted. But yep,

486
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,640
Speaker 2: if you're in a twelve team or then there there'll

487
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 2: be thirty six. So then you really you want to

488
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 2: kind of go and make sure you get the three

489
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 2: quarterbacks and not be one of those teams in your

490
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:36,200
Speaker 2: league at only has.

491
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:38,640
Speaker 3: Or else you're gonna have to take a fly around

492
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 3: like a Drew lock as your QV three.

493
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 1: All right, let's move.

494
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:42,640
Speaker 2: On to.

495
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 1: Draft position.

496
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 2: And by draft position, I mean where your draft spot

497
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:55,360
Speaker 2: is in the first round, because that's going to dictate

498
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,440
Speaker 2: obviously how you pick in the rounds that come after,

499
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 2: because you know, fantasy drafts are snake drafts, which means

500
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 2: if you pick last in the first round, you pick

501
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 2: first in the second, and vice versus.

502
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 1: So you know, Sean, how do you kind of think

503
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 1: of draft position and do you.

504
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 2: Know, does it kind of factor into your your thinking

505
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 2: and your strategy at all?

506
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 1: And are there positions you kind of prefer or don't prefer. Yeah,

507
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 1: that's that's a loaded question.

508
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 3: I would just first start by saying I think I

509
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 3: can win from any draft slot. So just because you

510
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 3: don't get the first pick in the draft, doesn't mean

511
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 3: that you know your your hopes are crushed of winning

512
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,119
Speaker 3: the league. I think you can win from any draft slot.

513
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 3: Your draft strategy for the first three rounds definitely a

514
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 3: change is based on where you're drafting, because you're only

515
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 3: going to really have, you know, smaller player pools that

516
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 3: are available to you at the first three rounds. So

517
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,679
Speaker 3: for example, if you have say a first you know

518
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 3: four pick, you're probably not getting an elite tight end

519
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 3: because A you shouldn't be drafting a tight end that early.

520
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 3: You know, Travis Kelcey or Mark Andrews, and b neither

521
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 3: one will probably make it back to you, So that

522
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 3: that does impact something like your tight end strategy.

523
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 1: So if you have an earlier.

524
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 3: Pick, you'll probably end up with an elite running back

525
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,400
Speaker 3: oride receiver and then get one on the way back.

526
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 3: But each draft slot, I have sort of a overall

527
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:20,160
Speaker 3: plan going into it, and then certainly once the draft starts,

528
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 3: the plans go out of the window. But you certainly

529
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 3: want to have a general plan on how you're going

530
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 3: to approach each each position depending on draft slot. So

531
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 3: that's we'll get to that later. But the one way

532
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 3: you do that is just by doing a ton of

533
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,920
Speaker 3: mock drafts, and you'll see what I'm saying where you're

534
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 3: only going to have a few players at a given

535
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,360
Speaker 3: time in the first few rounds that you can even consider.

536
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 3: So it's you know that your draft slot really does

537
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 3: dictate kind of who you get, and I prefer.

538
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 1: Being in the middle.

539
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 3: I think that it's easier, especially when you get to

540
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 3: the middle rounds, to kind of anticipate which players are

541
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 3: going to make it back to you. If you're at

542
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 3: the ends, you have to sometimes you have to consider

543
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 3: twenty four, you know, picks before your next pick, so

544
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,360
Speaker 3: it's it's very tough to gaze which player might be there,

545
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 3: so you have to reach a bit more, which I

546
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 3: don't like doing in the middle round. So being in

547
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 3: the middle, you know, picks five through seven, I have

548
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:10,439
Speaker 3: a much better handle on who's going to come back

549
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 3: to me. It's easier for me to kind of get

550
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 3: value and not reach for guys from those draft slots.

551
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:18,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think you know, you kind of mentioned

552
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 2: it where there's gonna be kind of a certain amount

553
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 2: of options depending on what your slot is, and I

554
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 2: think it's important to mention that there are a lot

555
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 2: of these kind of I don't want to call them fads,

556
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 2: but they're kind of trendy strategies. You know, they have

557
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 2: like the zero running back and the hero running back

558
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 2: and all these different strategies where you kind of you're

559
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 2: going with a certain position for a certain you know,

560
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: at a certain round.

561
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 1: Like some people say, okay, you.

562
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 2: Want to go running back, running back, running back in

563
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 2: the first three rounds, where you want to go like

564
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 2: wide receiver, stud tight end, wide receiver in the first

565
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 2: three rounds and fade running back. I don't think you

566
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 2: should ever go into a draft with a rigid strategy

567
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 2: like that. But to your point, just by knowing where

568
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,199
Speaker 2: you're picking in the first round, there's only gonna be

569
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 2: a certain amount of you know, possibilities, so you can

570
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 2: kind of still.

571
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 1: Plan around that.

572
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 2: Like if you're picking second, you know that you know

573
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 2: only Jonathan Taylor or you know somebody in that you

574
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 2: know in those top few picks is going to be

575
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 2: off the board, so you could kind of plan around, Okay,

576
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 2: who do I who's going to be around in the

577
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,880
Speaker 2: second pick? You generally know it's gonna be pretty much

578
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 2: everybody except likely Jonathan Taylor or maybe you know another

579
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 2: running back or Cooper Cupper justin Jefferson like, there's very

580
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 2: few possibilities that that can't happen there. So then you say, okay,

581
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 2: well from there now, it's gonna be a lot a

582
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 2: little bit harder to figure out. You know, who's going

583
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 2: to be there when I pick, you know, at the

584
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 2: at the end of the second round. But you know,

585
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 2: based on who I'm planning to what I'm planning to

586
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 2: do in the first round, I still can have a

587
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 2: kind of general plan and kind of so there are

588
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 2: ways to kind of think about that. But you shouldn't

589
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,239
Speaker 2: ever go in with a rigid strategy because I mean,

590
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 2: you could come into a draft and you know, let's

591
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 2: say everyone just goes wide receiver crazy and like, you know,

592
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,120
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry's around at the end of the second round,

593
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:05,679
Speaker 2: You're like, oh, I'm taking a wide receiver definitely, Like, no,

594
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 2: you're not.

595
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 1: If Derrick Henry is still you're taking Derreck Henry.

596
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 2: It's an extreme example, but it's just you have to

597
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 2: be ready for value to fall to you, is my point,

598
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,400
Speaker 2: which is why you never want to have a rigid strategy.

599
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 2: You just you can have an ideal strategy. You can

600
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 2: say my my ideal start, like to your point about

601
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 2: the tight ends, you know, Mark Andrews ADP is around twentieth.

602
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 2: So like if I'm if I'm drafting let's say third,

603
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 2: I might say, okay, you know, my ideal start is

604
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 2: like a top you know, running back, whether it's McCaffrey

605
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 2: or Henry, and then you know Mark Andrews in the

606
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 2: second I'm it might not happen, but I'm kind of

607
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 2: looking out for that, and then I know, you know

608
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 2: what my second most ideal start is and kind of

609
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 2: going from there. So you can kind of plan those

610
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,239
Speaker 2: Usually those first three you can kind of get a

611
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 2: somewhat of an idea of how it's going to turn out,

612
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 2: and then it gets a lot more. You know, the

613
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 2: average draft position is average. You know, that's what you're

614
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 2: going to be kind of drafting off. We'll talk a

615
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 2: little bit more about that, but average draft position is

616
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 2: just kind of the order in which players are drafted,

617
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 2: in the average spot at which they go.

618
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: But there's a lot of there's a lot of deviation

619
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 1: from that.

620
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 2: You know, just because the guy average goes on average,

621
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 2: you know, the twentieth pick, he could go to ten.

622
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 2: Sometimes in the thirtieth sometimes, so it's important to keep

623
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 2: that in mind as well. Let's go to something kind

624
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 2: of a philosophy that I think is important, and I'll

625
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 2: let you explain the quote, you can't win your league

626
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 2: in the first few rounds, but you can definitely lose it.

627
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that's I think that either came for you

628
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 3: or I last year, but we both kind of live

629
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 3: by that philosophy of the first few rounds.

630
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 1: Don't overthink it.

631
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 3: Just take guys that we know will be good this

632
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 3: year and don't really have any glaring concerns like a

633
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 3: potential suspension or an injury heading into the season, So

634
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 3: you're really not trying to.

635
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 1: Outthink your league mates.

636
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 3: By Let's say I go into the draft and I love,

637
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 3: you know, DeAndre Swift, I don't need to take him

638
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 3: the second pick overall. Or you know, Saquon Barkley last

639
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 3: year had that you know, ankle injury heading into the season,

640
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 3: like he was too risky, that's why we were fading him.

641
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 3: So what you can do early in the draft is

642
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 3: lose it, because if you were to gamble on a

643
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 3: Saquon Barkley early on, take him way too early, or

644
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 3: take a player that's you know, potentially gonna get suspended,

645
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 3: like Alvin Kamara. If he gets suspended, you know, that's

646
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 3: gonna be really hard for you to overcome. So it's

647
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 3: just unnecessary to take big risk in the early rounds

648
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 3: when there's so many players that will give you stable,

649
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 3: efficient production that just the first three rounds specifically, I'm

650
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 3: just taking guys that I know.

651
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: Are going to perform.

652
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 3: I'm not trying to you know, win the league with

653
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 3: the first two drafts, first three rounds. I'm just trying

654
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 3: to avoid catastrophe.

655
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great way to put it.

656
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 2: You know, you want high floor guys because everyone in

657
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 2: the first few rounds has a high stealing but there's

658
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 2: always you know, depending on the year, there will be

659
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 2: a few guys mixed in there that just have lower

660
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 2: floors than the rest.

661
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 1: You know. I think Kamara is an example.

662
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 2: We still don't know exactly what's going on with the suspension.

663
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 2: There is some news that maybe it won't come this year.

664
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 2: So if that, if that's gonna happen, then that changes

665
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 2: things a little bit, if we can guarantee that.

666
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 1: But you know, I think JK.

667
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 2: Domons is another one where we just aren't quite sure

668
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 2: exactly where his health is. We know he got activated

669
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 2: off the pup, but you know, you know, is he

670
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 2: going to be you know, back to one hundred percent?

671
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 2: You know, is you know, how where is he? You

672
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 2: know if we don't know that, Yeah, I've seen him

673
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 2: go as early as the fourth round. You know, people

674
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 2: are drafting him as they're you know, second running back.

675
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 2: I don't think that is necessarily what you need to

676
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 2: do because there are just so like all you have

677
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 2: to do is go down one, like there's so many

678
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 2: other players, Like it's still early. You know, when you

679
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 2: get late in the draft, you're den it's the opposite,

680
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 2: like after about the first nine to ten rounds in

681
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 2: a ten or twelve team league, ian the players you

682
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 2: feel comfortable, like starting in week one one, they're gonna

683
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 2: be gone. Like so now you're essentially drafting for for

684
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 2: upside because like even the guys you're you're drafting, their

685
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 2: projections aren't really going to be like startable, Like they

686
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 2: could turn into that, but that's the whole point. You're

687
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,239
Speaker 2: looking for that kind of upside. So you could take

688
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 2: a lot more risks at those points in the draft.

689
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 2: But early on, you know, if there's a guy you

690
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 2: have any you know, major concern with, just just move

691
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 2: on to the next guy down down the list. All right,

692
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 2: let's uh, let's talk about value based drafting because that

693
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 2: kind of underlies a lot of what we've been talking

694
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 2: about this far. So you want to just explain, you know,

695
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 2: kind of value based drafting principles really quickly and how

696
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 2: we use it to kind.

697
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, every positions you know, either higher scoring, lower scoring,

698
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,479
Speaker 3: so quarterbacks are going to score score way more points

699
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 3: than you know, wide receiver, tight end. So when it

700
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 3: comes to value based drafting, it's a number that you

701
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 3: create that you can use across all positions to kind

702
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 3: of compare them equally. So how well that play does

703
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 3: within the position, so how well Josh Allen does within

704
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 3: the quarter rack position is going to give you a

705
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 3: better valuation of where you should draft them overall. And

706
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 3: you know, there's a lot of caveats at that, and

707
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 3: like we've been talking about the range of outcomes things

708
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 3: like that, but in general, it's trying to assign a

709
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 3: number to every given player based on their position, and

710
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 3: really what it does is it kind of shows where

711
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 3: there's certain drop offs at the position that's what I

712
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 3: really look at. So I have, you know, a value

713
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 3: based drafting sort of overall value number. But when I'm drafting,

714
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 3: what I'm looking for is, you know, I'm trying to

715
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 3: assess which players are going to be off the board

716
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 3: by the time it's my next pick, and I try

717
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 3: to see which position has the biggest drop off in

718
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 3: their value based drafting score. So that's kind of essentially

719
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 3: the idea behind it is trying to you know, cherry

720
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:50,959
Speaker 3: pick a position when there's going to be a big

721
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 3: drop off within the position because it's it's not comparing

722
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 3: apples to apples because they each position scores differently. So

723
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 3: that's sort of the overall of view is trying to

724
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 3: put everybody in even playing field.

725
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the way to that it's done the original

726
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 2: way it's done, and there's a lot of ways you

727
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 2: can you can do it that kind of go off that,

728
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 2: but essentially what you're what the original way to do

729
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 2: it is, or the most basic way to do it

730
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 2: is you find the baseline starter at each position. So

731
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,280
Speaker 2: you know, let's say you're in a ten team league

732
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 2: and you're start you know that, so that means and

733
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 2: you start one quarterback. So that means you're subtracting the

734
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 2: tenth ranked quarterback because that's the baseline. You're subtracting his

735
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 2: score from every other quarterback score. Uh, you know, to

736
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 2: get a baseline number, so he would be zero, and

737
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 2: then you know, the top ranked quarterback, he would be

738
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 2: the first.

739
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 1: You would have the highest score, and so on and

740
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:44,879
Speaker 1: so forth.

741
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:48,759
Speaker 2: And that's because, as you mentioned, for example, quarterbacks like

742
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 2: the top usually five to ten quarterbacks usually outscore like

743
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 2: the top running back, the top wide receiver. So but

744
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:58,840
Speaker 2: you're not drafting like the top quarterback in a one

745
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 2: quarterback leak. You're not drafted Josh Allen first overall. You're

746
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 2: drafting Jonathan Taylor first overall. Why because Jonathan Taylor is

747
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 2: better than the you know, number twenty four running back. Uh.

748
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 2: You know, when you subtract that score from his projection,

749
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,440
Speaker 2: then you know Josh Allen is from the top, from

750
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 2: the number twelve quarterback.

751
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 1: So that's what you're trying to look at.

752
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 2: And really the baseline starter is that's how you kind

753
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 2: of you know, that's where you can differ and kind

754
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 2: of tail it to your league. You know what I

755
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 2: you know, I kind of mentioned that you're gonna need

756
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 2: more games. You're not just gonna look at So I'm

757
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 2: not just gonna look at like the RB twenty four

758
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 2: for my baseline running back. I'm gonna look somewhere, you know,

759
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 2: closer to the RB you know, thirty six, because I'm

760
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:39,839
Speaker 2: factoring in the fact that I need this, you know,

761
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 2: this extra running back to give me this extra set

762
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 2: of games. And then also a flex could be a

763
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 2: running back half the time, so I might be looking

764
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 2: at even like a running back forty for the baseline.

765
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 2: And same thing for wide receivers, whereas you know the

766
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 2: quarterback and tight end, their baseline is usually just going

767
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 2: to be you know whatever, however many you're starting in

768
00:35:57,719 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 2: your league, whether it's ten or twelve. So that's what

769
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 2: it's going to kind of give you that list that

770
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 2: you always see in the rankings, those overall ranking lists

771
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 2: where you have you know, Jonathan Taylor and all the

772
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 2: other running backs and wide receivers you know, rank high,

773
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 2: and then you don't see your first quarterback usually until

774
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 2: maybe the early third round.

775
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 1: It's usually Josh Allen.

776
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 2: That's how they're getting those rankings is by just essentially

777
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 2: assigning a baseline starter and that's what you can do,

778
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 2: you know, with our fantasy to at Action network dot com,

779
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 2: you can input your leak settings and then that's how

780
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 2: it's going to kind of determine the rankings.

781
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 1: So that is what value based drafting is.

782
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 2: And that's just it's just underwies you know, everything we're

783
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 2: kind of talking about, But that's just kind of the

784
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 2: nuts and bolts behind it.

785
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 1: You don't really need.

786
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,839
Speaker 2: To you know, if you're a casual player, you don't

787
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 2: really need to be doing this yourself.

788
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: Our rankings and projections are going to be doing it

789
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 1: for you.

790
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 2: But it's just good to kind of understand, you know,

791
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 2: how we get to these point rankings. How why why

792
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:56,399
Speaker 2: the first quarterback is not going till round three?

793
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 1: You know that's why.

794
00:36:57,440 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, And so just real quick, just I'm gonna try

795
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 3: and make it simple as possible. But when it comes

796
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 3: to like the original you know way of calculating it, yeah,

797
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,240
Speaker 3: you would take like QB one subtracted by QB twelve,

798
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 3: you know, go through each position. You don't really need

799
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 3: to do that for kicker and defense because then you know,

800
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:15,400
Speaker 3: Justin Tucker is going to be in round six. So

801
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:17,439
Speaker 3: the way that I actually do it is I look

802
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 3: at say the top fifty and ADP or top hunter,

803
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 3: whatever you want to choose, how many players from each

804
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 3: position are being drafted in that range. So if you

805
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,880
Speaker 3: look at the top fifty, if there's five quarterbacks being

806
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 3: drafted the tip top fifty, I would make the QB

807
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,439
Speaker 3: scores the QB one minus QB five. And if there's

808
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,439
Speaker 3: sixteen running backs, I would make it the running back

809
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 3: one minus the running back sixteen. So that way you

810
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 3: can get a closer idea of how you should be

811
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 3: drafting positionally in the top fifty specifically, and then outside

812
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 3: of the top fifty you should be drafting based on

813
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,799
Speaker 3: just position need anyway. But that's a more advanced way

814
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:56,879
Speaker 3: to calculate it from the original just QB one by

815
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:57,720
Speaker 3: QB twelve.

816
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great point, all right, go talk about

817
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:04,400
Speaker 2: rankings a little bit more. And because I think you

818
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 2: know the average person that's listening and that's new to fantasy,

819
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 2: you know they're going to essentially find instead of rankings.

820
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 2: You know, whether it's ours, whether it's somebody else's, whether

821
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 2: it's a whole bunch of different ones, they're probably going

822
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 2: to be drafting off rankings. That's kind of what we recommend,

823
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:24,839
Speaker 2: but even within that, there's there's ways to kind of

824
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 2: do that, and there's ways to not The first thing

825
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 2: we should talk about a little bit more is just

826
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 2: kind of rankings and then ADP. You know, those people

827
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 2: are probably are going to have access to those two

828
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 2: pieces of information. How do you how do you kind

829
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 2: of reconcile those and use those in tandem in your draft.

830
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, so my my rankings are how I'm valuing the players,

831
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 3: and that's ideally the order that I'm going to draft them.

832
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 3: But you have to look at ADP the average draft

833
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 3: position to know when they're likely to get taken in

834
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 3: your league. So an example would be if I like

835
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 3: a running back, like I don't know Tony Pollard, where

836
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 3: I have him ranked as like a fifth round running back,

837
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 3: if I can get him in rounds six through eight,

838
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 3: depending you know on my league, I'm going to wait

839
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 3: until then to draft them. So you don't want to,

840
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,200
Speaker 3: you know, cut your value by drafting the player where

841
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 3: they should go. You want to draft them where you

842
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 3: can get them, where you're getting value, and you can

843
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 3: draft a different player there that won't.

844
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 1: Make it back to you.

845
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 3: So that's probably the point I'm trying to make is

846
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 3: draft players that you know won't make it back to you,

847
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 3: but that are highest available in the rankings. That's typically

848
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 3: the best way to handle it, and then the rest

849
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 3: will kind of sort itself out. But average draft position

850
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 3: is huge just in terms of me approaching the draft

851
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 3: knowing which players I can probably get later in the

852
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 3: draft and knowing which players I'll probably want to avoid.

853
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 3: That kind of dictates my overall process for each position.

854
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's so important because you know, for example,

855
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 2: you know, using your Tony pow example, you also kind

856
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 2: of know all right, how many players at each position

857
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,240
Speaker 2: you're gonna need, especially at running back and wide receiver.

858
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:08,680
Speaker 1: So what what.

859
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 2: Could end up happening is because Tony Poward, let's say

860
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 2: you know Sean you have them ranked two rounds ahead

861
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 2: of where he's going. What what a person would be

862
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 2: should really be doing then is they probably would end

863
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 2: up taking a player that you have ranked lower than

864
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:29,320
Speaker 2: Pollard ahead of him, because that will be more valuable

865
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,440
Speaker 2: because like, let's say it's just a wide receiver that

866
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 2: you just have ranked right in line with adp Well,

867
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 2: they're gonna need a receiver because they're gonna have this

868
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:38,720
Speaker 2: value at running back that's like, you know, two rounds

869
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 2: ahead of value that they can still get. So that

870
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 2: you don't always draft straight off rankings because it's you're not.

871
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 1: Gonna go terribly wrong, but you're gonna lose out on value.

872
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 2: So you always have to use rankings in tandem with ADP.

873
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 2: You know, there's no other way. Uh, you know, we

874
00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:00,879
Speaker 2: can you can't just rank players. We can't just rank

875
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 2: players based off ADP because it's like it's always.

876
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 1: Going to change every draft.

877
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,399
Speaker 2: There's going to be you know, so so the best

878
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 2: we can do is just give you our rankings and

879
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 2: then you have ADP and then you say, okay, well

880
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:14,919
Speaker 2: he has these three running backs you know, two rounds

881
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 2: higher that should be here, you know, in a couple

882
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 2: of rounds. So I'm just going to take, you know,

883
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,320
Speaker 2: a wide receiver that's at value because I'm going to

884
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 2: be getting value back later with one of these guys.

885
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 2: And I think that's another important thing is when you're

886
00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:28,799
Speaker 2: drafting and you're kind of choosing whether to wait or not,

887
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 2: you want to think about, you know, if it's a

888
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:33,919
Speaker 2: position that you're saying, Okay, maybe I'm going to hold

889
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:36,800
Speaker 2: off on running back. It shouldn't just because like Tony

890
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 2: Poward is the only guy. It should hopefully there should

891
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:42,399
Speaker 2: be a couple of guys that you have options, because again,

892
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 2: all it takes is one person to take Poward ahead

893
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:47,840
Speaker 2: of his adp and then and then your plan is screwed.

894
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 2: So it's remember it's average draft position. And so that's

895
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 2: what you're using the rankings for you. You still want

896
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 2: to kind of, you know, look at the tiers, and

897
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 2: I think this is where you really stand out and

898
00:41:59,000 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 2: do a lot of great work.

899
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,280
Speaker 1: So so I want you to explain to everyone how.

900
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 2: You why first of all, why you go about tiering players,

901
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 2: and then how you do it and then how you

902
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 2: use it.

903
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think just viewing rankings in sort of

904
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 3: tiers or buckets is so critical because it allows you

905
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 3: to assess, you know, where position is about to see

906
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 3: a tier evaporate, so that's that's when you should attack

907
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 3: that position. So, for example, like quarterback, I have Patrick

908
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 3: Mahomes justin Herbert Lamar, Jackson, Kyler Murray sort of ranked similarly.

909
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 3: So I'm probably not going to take Patrick Maholmes because

910
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 3: I know I can get a player like Kyler Murray

911
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 3: a bit later, but I have them projected similarly. So

912
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 3: one of the overall themes when it comes to my

913
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 3: tiers is you don't really want to be drafting at

914
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 3: the top of a tier because you're going to have

915
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:54,439
Speaker 3: potentially these players available later on, Whereas if there's one

916
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:57,800
Speaker 3: player left in a tier, they become way more valuable

917
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 3: because once they're gone, theoretically, you know, there's gonna be a.

918
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 1: Drop off at the position.

919
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 3: So that's that's where you're gonna find the most value,

920
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 3: is getting a guy that's grouped with a you know,

921
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 3: a bunch of guys that if once he's off the board.

922
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 1: He's gone, there's gonna be drop off at the position.

923
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 1: That's why I attack it.

924
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 3: So tiers are a great way to kind of see

925
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:19,400
Speaker 3: where each position is and where there's potential drop offs,

926
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,840
Speaker 3: and that's in theory, that's how you build championship. You know,

927
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 3: caliber teams is just attacking value, attacking positions before there's

928
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 3: a drop off. So that's why I love using you know,

929
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 3: tiers as an overall strategy.

930
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 1: And how I rank my players.

931
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think that's really important when when you

932
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 2: look at the overall rank of a player. You know,

933
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 2: it's that it's it's gonna come down to the tier.

934
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 2: It's not just about the overall ranking. It's about you know,

935
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 2: you know, I think quarterback is a good example. I mean,

936
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:51,399
Speaker 2: you have Patrick mahomes in Justin Herbert and they're kind

937
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 2: of in a similar tier to Kyler Murray and and

938
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:56,839
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson for a lot of us, and uh there's

939
00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 2: a good like two three round spread sometimes and where

940
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:01,879
Speaker 2: those guys get and so that's you know, it does

941
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 2: it's not always that wide with you know, running back

942
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:06,360
Speaker 2: and wide receiver, but it's still important to kind of

943
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:10,759
Speaker 2: know you know where those drop offs are because that

944
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 2: can you know, you're never going to be able to

945
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,359
Speaker 2: predict perfectly you know who's going to make it back

946
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:17,239
Speaker 2: to you in the next round and who everyone's going

947
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 2: to take.

948
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,320
Speaker 1: But if you see, okay, there are there's.

949
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 2: Still like five guys in this running back tier, but

950
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 2: there's only like one or two guys in this wide

951
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 2: receiver tier, I probably take the wide receiver because I'll

952
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 2: get you know, a similarly valued running back in the

953
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 2: next round. So that's that's just kind of how you

954
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 2: want to think about tiering let's.

955
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 1: Talk about you know we have.

956
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 2: We can't go through a Fantasy EFFECTI file without talking

957
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 2: about the frozen pond tier.

958
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:45,919
Speaker 1: So it's different every year to talk about that really quick.

959
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I mean, in general, I reserve this term

960
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 3: for running backs, the typical YO and the RB fifteen

961
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 3: to RB twenty five range, and they seem perfectly safe

962
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 3: on the surface. Think of a frozen pond. You can

963
00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:00,760
Speaker 3: walk on it, but any given time, I'm the bottom

964
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 3: can drop out and their value is gone. So that's

965
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 3: the way I think about it. When you're you're drafting

966
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 3: these running backs. Yeah, like I'm ranking these guys in

967
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:12,440
Speaker 3: line with adp Like I'm not saying they're bad bets,

968
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 3: but you're drafting him so early on that they have

969
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,680
Speaker 3: a low floor where they can ruin your team if

970
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 3: they bust. So it's typically running backs that there's a

971
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:24,799
Speaker 3: chance they can either become more entrenched in a two

972
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:27,919
Speaker 3: three way running back committee or even lose their job

973
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 3: outright in the season. And Mike Davis last year was

974
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 3: a perfect example. Can't be Corridero Patterson, right, And sure

975
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 3: enough that's what happened. So it's like Mike Davis, he

976
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:38,800
Speaker 3: was the weak one starting running back for the Falcons,

977
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 3: but he was a frozen pond running back where he

978
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:44,839
Speaker 3: just has a very low floor where he's he's being

979
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,840
Speaker 3: drafted probably where he should in terms of rankings. But

980
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 3: it kind of goes with our overall point with running back.

981
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 3: There's a wide range of outcomes for a lot of

982
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,520
Speaker 3: these backs because it's a volatile position that it does

983
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 3: kind of hurt you when you spend draft capital to

984
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 3: get these running backs in the fifteen to twenty five range.

985
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:03,360
Speaker 3: So that's why I try to cherry pick, you know,

986
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:05,800
Speaker 3: a handful running back. So I'm like, you gotta be

987
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 3: careful because the ground, you know, on top of them

988
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 3: is not as dirty as you may think.

989
00:46:11,760 --> 00:46:14,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know this year, I think we both

990
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:16,719
Speaker 2: have kind of come to the conclusion that it's a

991
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 2: little better this year than I think it has been

992
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 2: in years past. I mean, I mean, what we have

993
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 2: like Zach Moss and Miles Gaston, Mike Davis last year,

994
00:46:24,640 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 2: and you know this year it's you know, we're like

995
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 2: worried about Antonio Gibson and Josh Jacobs.

996
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 1: It's just a little more substantial back.

997
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 2: So what I like to do with it in the

998
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 2: way I kind of try to minimize the risk is

999
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 2: just take the guys who fall, like, like I'm not

1000
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:43,919
Speaker 2: trying to cherry pick which of these guys, like they're

1001
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:46,359
Speaker 2: all dart throws at to your point in that range,

1002
00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:47,680
Speaker 2: like they all have low floors.

1003
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 1: But there's also a reason why we have.

1004
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 2: Them ranked AREB fifteen to twenty five, and I would

1005
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,120
Speaker 2: even extend that to really RB like thirty five this year, right,

1006
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 2: you know, it's just so what I like to do

1007
00:46:57,440 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 2: is you know, just wait, I think actually, you know,

1008
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 2: if you if you have a running back that you got,

1009
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:05,280
Speaker 2: you know in the first you know, a couple of rounds,

1010
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:07,880
Speaker 2: you know you have your RB one, these guys are

1011
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 2: gonna be your RB two, your RB three, and your

1012
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 2: RB four on your depth chart, on your fantasy depth chart.

1013
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 2: So you know, attack wide receiver, like you said, we're

1014
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:18,439
Speaker 2: also trying to stack up on wide receiver, and then

1015
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 2: you know, whoever falls, you know, whether it's a Gibson

1016
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 2: or whether you know, sometimes it could be a Jacob,

1017
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:28,280
Speaker 2: sometimes it might be a AJ Dillon, a Damien Harris.

1018
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:30,800
Speaker 2: It just depends, you know, if you're taking those guys

1019
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:32,879
Speaker 2: around lower or.

1020
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 1: Too than ADP, you know that risk is mitigated because.

1021
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 2: You've you've stocked up on like your wide receivers of

1022
00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:42,759
Speaker 2: choice and maybe you also got a stud tight end.

1023
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,120
Speaker 2: So that's the way I kind of approach it this year.

1024
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 2: I kind of treat my RB two slot a lot

1025
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:50,239
Speaker 2: differently than I treat my RB one slot. My my

1026
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 2: RB one slot I want to have like a good, dependable,

1027
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 2: solid back, but my RB two slot, I'm kind of

1028
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 2: thinking of it in terms of like I'm gonna need

1029
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:00,600
Speaker 2: multiple eyes for that.

1030
00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:04,440
Speaker 1: Slot, like anyway, you know. So that's yeah, that's a

1031
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 1: great way to put it.

1032
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,600
Speaker 3: And that's why I don't like when people refer to

1033
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:08,439
Speaker 3: as the dead zone.

1034
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 1: It's not a dead zone.

1035
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:12,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, you still gotta draw somebody, Like the way you said,

1036
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:15,480
Speaker 2: if these guys fall, like I absolutely I will take them.

1037
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:18,480
Speaker 3: Frozen punt is perfect because all it is is I'm

1038
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 3: just urging caution with some of these players. That's it

1039
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 3: doesn't mean they're guaranteed the bus. It's just their floors lower.

1040
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:26,360
Speaker 3: So that's why it irks me when people call it

1041
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:28,320
Speaker 3: the dead zone because it's not that. It's the frozen

1042
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 3: pond tier damn it, damn it.

1043
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,240
Speaker 1: And just to kind of tie a bone on it out.

1044
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:33,799
Speaker 1: I want to.

1045
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:37,279
Speaker 2: Explain why it's important, you know, for us to talk

1046
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 2: about this and why it's important to have a plan

1047
00:48:39,200 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 2: for it is because the alternative is, like, yeah, you

1048
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 2: could avoid the so called dead zone frozen pond tier,

1049
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 2: but then you're gonna have to go running back, running back,

1050
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 2: running back in the first three rounds. If you go

1051
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 2: running back, Let's say you do one hundred drafts, right,

1052
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 2: Let's I know you might only be doing one or two,

1053
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 2: but let's but just say you're doing in your drafts

1054
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:03,839
Speaker 2: and you you always wanted to avoid the frozen pond tier,

1055
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 2: so you always started with three straight running backs. That

1056
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 2: means you would get zero percent of Cooper Cup, Damar Chase, Justin, Jefferson,

1057
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 2: Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelcey, Mark Andrews, maybe even

1058
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 2: Kyle Pitts. You know, like you're cutting yourself, Like if

1059
00:49:23,239 --> 00:49:26,919
Speaker 2: there was if we could just like avoid the tier, yeah,

1060
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 2: we obviously would, but it's not worth avoiding the tier

1061
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:33,839
Speaker 2: to sacrifice the upside that you'd be giving up by

1062
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 2: passing on like high end wide you know, top end

1063
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 2: wide receivers instead tight.

1064
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,479
Speaker 3: End Absolutely now one hundred percent and you were going

1065
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 3: all in on the most fragile position in fantasy. So

1066
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 3: you're setting yourself up for a scary low floor by

1067
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 3: doing that.

1068
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, let's talk about uh, let's talk about range

1069
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 2: of outcomes a little bit more, because I think that

1070
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:56,919
Speaker 2: kind of goes into it.

1071
00:49:58,160 --> 00:49:58,360
Speaker 1: You know.

1072
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 2: I think an interesting example of range of outcomes is

1073
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 2: like Trey Lance in twenty twenty one. A lot of people,

1074
00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:10,760
Speaker 2: you know, he was kind of ranked like QB fourteen

1075
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 2: going into the season, but.

1076
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 1: Kind of explain like, you know.

1077
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 2: He didn't end there, obviously, explained what the thought process

1078
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 2: was kind of going into the year, you know, with

1079
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 2: Trey Lance outcomes, and then what actually happened.

1080
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, So Trey Lance was a perfect example last year

1081
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:32,200
Speaker 3: of just like rankings don't necessarily have to flank reflect

1082
00:50:32,239 --> 00:50:36,320
Speaker 3: like the median outcome for quarterback. Obviously, Trey Lance sitting

1083
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:39,760
Speaker 3: out all season behind Jimmy g was a potential outcome,

1084
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 3: and that's exactly what happened. But the fact that Lance

1085
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:46,239
Speaker 3: could have taken over at any given time and when

1086
00:50:46,280 --> 00:50:49,279
Speaker 3: he did, or if he did, he probably would have

1087
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 3: produced like a top twelve quarterback, potentially a top five quarterback,

1088
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 3: you would want to draft him, you know, QB fourteen

1089
00:50:57,239 --> 00:51:00,919
Speaker 3: to QB seventeen because, like we said, one QB league,

1090
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 3: you're probably not having many teams where they're drafting more

1091
00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 3: than one quarterback, so you would just stash him on

1092
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 3: your bench, which I did last year. And however, he

1093
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:13,560
Speaker 3: never played, so he didn't really kill me by drafting

1094
00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 3: him in the QB fifteen range. But his range of

1095
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 3: outcomes was a potential top five quarterback, so it was

1096
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 3: worth the risk. Whereas somebody like Tom Brady, we knew

1097
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 3: that he was going to finish right about you know,

1098
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:27,799
Speaker 3: QB seven. So that's why when it comes to range

1099
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:28,680
Speaker 3: of outcomes, it'll wait.

1100
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:30,759
Speaker 1: No, no, he did not finish qv seven. Oh I

1101
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:31,520
Speaker 1: mean QUB two.

1102
00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 3: Well, he was raked like QB seven, and you know

1103
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 3: I was saying he might have a historic season. I'm

1104
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 3: just saying, like we knew he was when he he's

1105
00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:41,799
Speaker 3: going to be good no matter what. Right, Whereas Trey

1106
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 3: Lance had a wide range of outcomes, I think a

1107
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:47,280
Speaker 3: better example this year, Well you had a great piece

1108
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 3: out with Romeo Dubbs, right, yeah, where uh there's a

1109
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 3: chance he actually doesn't end up being Aaron Rodgers first

1110
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 3: or second target, even so you know you might not

1111
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 3: rank him this early wide receiver sixty five, but the

1112
00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:05,800
Speaker 3: fact that he has a chance to potentially be Aaron

1113
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:08,400
Speaker 3: Rodgers number one or number two target means that we

1114
00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 3: should be drafting him a lot higher than where the

1115
00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:14,239
Speaker 3: median projection is, because that's what we're trying to do. Like,

1116
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 3: if you want to draft Jamison Crowder instead of him,

1117
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:19,319
Speaker 3: be my guest, But he's not going to have a

1118
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:23,960
Speaker 3: league winning season, but Romeo Dubbs might. So that's why

1119
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:26,799
Speaker 3: we consider range of outcomes at certain points in the draft.

1120
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 3: I already mentioned in the first couple rounds, I'm not

1121
00:52:29,280 --> 00:52:31,479
Speaker 3: taking huge chances because I just want to hide four,

1122
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 3: whereas later in the draft you want to take massive

1123
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 3: swings on these flyer wide receivers, running backs, quarterbacks. So

1124
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 3: I think it's important to kind of factor that when

1125
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:42,560
Speaker 3: you're looking at rankings.

1126
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:45,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, you know, Dobbs is a really

1127
00:52:45,520 --> 00:52:48,400
Speaker 2: good example. I think another one, you know at running

1128
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 2: back would be let's take the Commanders. Let's take j D.

1129
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:57,239
Speaker 2: McKissick versus Brian Robinson Junior, Like we're always going to

1130
00:52:57,320 --> 00:53:01,879
Speaker 2: have JD. McKissick ranked above rob and Jr. Because Jad

1131
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 2: McKissick has a locked in role. We know he's going

1132
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:06,480
Speaker 2: to play, you know, a certain amount of the passing

1133
00:53:06,600 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 2: snaps and get you know, three or four carries per game,

1134
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 2: and that's what's going to happen. Now Robinson, you know,

1135
00:53:13,280 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 2: he might have a minimal role, you know, some short yards.

1136
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 2: They want to keep Gibson fresher, but you know, his

1137
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 2: median outcome is probably you know, four carries a game

1138
00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:27,000
Speaker 2: or something like that. But if let's say Gibson gets hurt,

1139
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 2: now Robinson all of a sudden is essentially getting the

1140
00:53:30,160 --> 00:53:33,759
Speaker 2: Gibson workload, and he's more valuable than JD.

1141
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:34,400
Speaker 1: McKissick.

1142
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:37,359
Speaker 2: So if you already have your starting running backs, which

1143
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:38,799
Speaker 2: of course you're going to have by the time you'd

1144
00:53:38,840 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 2: even think about drafting either of those guys, it's really

1145
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 2: no point in you know, maybe in a certain dp

1146
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:48,080
Speaker 2: PPR league, you know, to get like the every week

1147
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:51,720
Speaker 2: points with mackissick, but there's really no point in getting

1148
00:53:51,760 --> 00:53:55,280
Speaker 2: like a cap feeling guy like that. So you'd want Robinson,

1149
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:59,000
Speaker 2: even though Robinson would be ranked lower and he might

1150
00:53:59,160 --> 00:54:01,840
Speaker 2: end up never starting a game in the entire season

1151
00:54:01,880 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 2: and Gibson plays all seventeens.

1152
00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:07,480
Speaker 1: But those are the kind of guys you want.

1153
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:09,880
Speaker 2: Late in the draft, after you've already got your you know,

1154
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:12,319
Speaker 2: your starting lineup, and you know you've kind of exhausted.

1155
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:14,600
Speaker 2: You know, all those players that are kind of startable

1156
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:16,880
Speaker 2: are gonna be startable from week one on. It doesn't

1157
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:19,480
Speaker 2: really matter like the other guys because they weren't really

1158
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 2: gonna put up.

1159
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:21,040
Speaker 1: Startable value anyway.

1160
00:54:21,040 --> 00:54:23,279
Speaker 2: Those those guys you're drafting late, so you might as

1161
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:25,480
Speaker 2: well just look for that that high steiling. And with

1162
00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:27,680
Speaker 2: running backs, it's always going to be can this guy,

1163
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 2: you know, take over like a workload that would you know,

1164
00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:32,799
Speaker 2: give him like fifteen twenty touches a game and give

1165
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:36,080
Speaker 2: them potential to be a fantasy RB one yep.

1166
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:38,520
Speaker 3: And for that, I would say check out my Running

1167
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:42,719
Speaker 3: Back Upside Rankings Ratings piece where I go over every

1168
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:45,520
Speaker 3: backfield exactly what you said, the range of outcomes, and

1169
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:49,799
Speaker 3: I even grade the backups based on their expected their

1170
00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:53,040
Speaker 3: potential ceiling if they were to ever start in relation

1171
00:54:53,160 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 3: to the ADP.

1172
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:54,560
Speaker 1: So check that out.

1173
00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's a great piece. That's a great way

1174
00:54:57,040 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 2: to look at it. You know, kind of looking at okay,

1175
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:01,359
Speaker 2: which running back? You know, how is it running back

1176
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:03,839
Speaker 2: gonna look? You know if this if the starter goes down,

1177
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 2: like where is he going to be? Like That's that's

1178
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:07,760
Speaker 2: essentially what you're trying to do. And then with wide receiver,

1179
00:55:08,440 --> 00:55:10,479
Speaker 2: it's really just saying, does this guy have a path

1180
00:55:10,560 --> 00:55:13,319
Speaker 2: to be uh, you know a top the realistically a

1181
00:55:13,360 --> 00:55:14,959
Speaker 2: top two target on his team.

1182
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:16,399
Speaker 1: That's how you kind of look at that.

1183
00:55:16,719 --> 00:55:19,040
Speaker 2: But let's let's talk about you know the other side

1184
00:55:19,040 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 2: of range of outcomes, which is bust because we kind

1185
00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 2: of hit on it a little bit, but I just

1186
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:25,880
Speaker 2: want to talk about it a little more, like what

1187
00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 2: exactly are we defining? What exactly are we talking about

1188
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:31,759
Speaker 2: when we're talking about a bus Like, how would you

1189
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 2: define it?

1190
00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:36,000
Speaker 3: I would say a bust a potential bust is a

1191
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:40,480
Speaker 3: player who's likely being drafted too early, so their ADP's

1192
00:55:40,520 --> 00:55:43,600
Speaker 3: a little too high, or their ADP represents their best

1193
00:55:43,600 --> 00:55:46,400
Speaker 3: case scenario. Like I think that's the best way to

1194
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 3: put it. And last year, last year, I would say

1195
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:52,279
Speaker 3: that the guy I was just laughing whenever you're talking

1196
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:55,480
Speaker 3: about running back was like Ronald Jones being drafted like

1197
00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 3: ahead of Leonard Fournette. I was thinking, yeah, like obviously,

1198
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:01,759
Speaker 3: like or could get hurt. Roald Jones can have a

1199
00:56:01,800 --> 00:56:05,440
Speaker 3: good season, but his ADP represented his best case scenario,

1200
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 3: so that's why I was avoiding him. Like, certainly there's

1201
00:56:08,120 --> 00:56:10,919
Speaker 3: this scenario where Roald Jones is the top fifteen running back.

1202
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:12,320
Speaker 1: I just didn't see it happening.

1203
00:56:12,360 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 3: So I just called Ronald Jones a bus whenever I could,

1204
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:18,839
Speaker 3: just based on his ADP. So you know, there's times

1205
00:56:18,880 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 3: where the ADP might be overrating a player because you

1206
00:56:22,040 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 3: know they're overlooking potential touchdown regression or target competition. There's

1207
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:29,440
Speaker 3: many different factors, but typically their ADP is way too

1208
00:56:29,520 --> 00:56:32,280
Speaker 3: high and is much closer to their ceiling.

1209
00:56:33,640 --> 00:56:37,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a bust is you know, it's like

1210
00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:42,960
Speaker 2: a guy who he would finish like probably two levels

1211
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:44,839
Speaker 2: down from what you expect. So like a running back

1212
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:46,840
Speaker 2: one who doesn't even finish as a RB two, Like

1213
00:56:46,880 --> 00:56:49,360
Speaker 2: a guy you draft as an RB one who like

1214
00:56:49,400 --> 00:56:51,560
Speaker 2: finishes as like an RB three or worse.

1215
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:54,400
Speaker 3: Or something when they're healthy, right, because obviously injuries can

1216
00:56:54,400 --> 00:56:57,120
Speaker 3: come into play. I would say Ellen Robinson last year

1217
00:56:57,160 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 3: might have been one of the biggest busts because you

1218
00:56:59,239 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 3: drafted him as a wide receiver one, and he was

1219
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:04,560
Speaker 3: healthy for much of the season and you just couldn't

1220
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:07,000
Speaker 3: play him at times, which is kind of rare. But

1221
00:57:07,040 --> 00:57:09,080
Speaker 3: that that would have been the definition of a bus

1222
00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:11,560
Speaker 3: last year. I don't know if anybody really saw that coming,

1223
00:57:12,080 --> 00:57:15,360
Speaker 3: but that's Yeah, that's really what a bust is is

1224
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:18,800
Speaker 3: they really underperform based on their draft position.

1225
00:57:19,000 --> 00:57:19,560
Speaker 1: Typically.

1226
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 3: That's what we're saying when we're talking about a potential bust,

1227
00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:24,720
Speaker 3: is we just think their ADP is way too high.

1228
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:27,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean you could I mean some people

1229
00:57:27,080 --> 00:57:30,200
Speaker 2: would call like injuries a bus, but like you can't

1230
00:57:30,240 --> 00:57:33,240
Speaker 2: really predict injuries other than kind.

1231
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:35,440
Speaker 1: Of the way we spoke about earlier.

1232
00:57:35,080 --> 00:57:40,000
Speaker 2: With it, which is just understanding the relative positional differences.

1233
00:57:40,040 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 2: Like you can you could project running backs to miss

1234
00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:44,920
Speaker 2: more games than wide receivers, but are you going to

1235
00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:47,200
Speaker 2: know which running backs are going to miss how many games?

1236
00:57:47,360 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 2: That's almost impossible to predict. How do we generally go

1237
00:57:52,360 --> 00:57:53,800
Speaker 2: about avoiding bus?

1238
00:57:54,520 --> 00:57:58,040
Speaker 1: I mean that's that's where we come in. We're trying to.

1239
00:57:59,480 --> 00:58:02,920
Speaker 3: Kind of crunch the numbers, see which players may have

1240
00:58:03,000 --> 00:58:05,960
Speaker 3: benefited from good luck last year or suffered bad luck.

1241
00:58:06,000 --> 00:58:10,480
Speaker 3: So we're constantly evaluating future performance. So in order to

1242
00:58:10,560 --> 00:58:14,080
Speaker 3: avoid busts, it's really just factoring everything in. And last

1243
00:58:14,120 --> 00:58:16,320
Speaker 3: year we kind of said that, you said we can't

1244
00:58:16,360 --> 00:58:19,240
Speaker 3: predict injury. But last year we were saying Saquon Barkley

1245
00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 3: is already going into the season, yeah, being banged up.

1246
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:24,960
Speaker 3: Plus you were also saying that even when healthy, he

1247
00:58:25,040 --> 00:58:27,720
Speaker 3: has been underperforming. So there was a couple of different

1248
00:58:27,720 --> 00:58:30,160
Speaker 3: angles there. So when it comes to bust, there's usually

1249
00:58:30,160 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 3: not one specific reason. It's just there's a bunch of

1250
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:37,200
Speaker 3: red flags. Why we're saying maybe, yeah, just don't draft

1251
00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:40,880
Speaker 3: this player, draft this person instead to avoid that potential risk.

1252
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:44,600
Speaker 3: So that's kind of how I flag, you know, potential busts.

1253
00:58:45,000 --> 00:58:47,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think with running backs, you know, one of

1254
00:58:47,320 --> 00:58:50,600
Speaker 2: the things is, you know, an offensive line, like I think,

1255
00:58:50,640 --> 00:58:52,720
Speaker 2: you know you can kind of you know, look at

1256
00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:54,880
Speaker 2: a team's offensive line and if it's if it's going

1257
00:58:54,920 --> 00:58:56,680
Speaker 2: to be bad and he's never really run behind an

1258
00:58:56,720 --> 00:58:59,800
Speaker 2: offensive line that bad before, that's something you can you can.

1259
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:04,200
Speaker 2: I think with with pass catchers, especially wide receivers, you

1260
00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:07,080
Speaker 2: always want to be careful, especially when it's like a

1261
00:59:07,200 --> 00:59:11,640
Speaker 2: number two wide receiver that he has competition coming from

1262
00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:14,080
Speaker 2: below those guys. I think you always want to be

1263
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:16,800
Speaker 2: careful about assuming like a guy is locked into a

1264
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:19,040
Speaker 2: role where maybe he has less job security than he does,

1265
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:20,720
Speaker 2: like an one was our is another one like he

1266
00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:22,960
Speaker 2: could be break right now, or he's kind of being

1267
00:59:23,040 --> 00:59:25,720
Speaker 2: drafted as the top receiver for Green Bay, but like

1268
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:29,440
Speaker 2: not only could Romeo Dobbs you know, pass him up,

1269
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 2: but Christian Watson could as well, you know, you know,

1270
00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:35,200
Speaker 2: so that that's something to kind.

1271
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:38,400
Speaker 3: Of Also, I would say expected role change or like

1272
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 3: the offensive scheme changing maybe hurts that person, like recently,

1273
00:59:43,040 --> 00:59:46,360
Speaker 3: like Mike Gsicki, you know, typically the past few seasons,

1274
00:59:46,400 --> 00:59:48,200
Speaker 3: he's been a wide receiver. He lines up in the

1275
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:50,520
Speaker 3: slot all the time, and that's why we do like

1276
00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:52,600
Speaker 3: him in fantasy as a low and tight end one.

1277
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:54,560
Speaker 3: But it sounds like he's gonna stay in and block

1278
00:59:54,600 --> 00:59:56,439
Speaker 3: a lot more this year. So something like that would

1279
00:59:56,480 --> 00:59:58,960
Speaker 3: be a red flag where I wouldn't touch him now

1280
00:59:59,040 --> 01:00:01,560
Speaker 3: as a low end tight end one because we're expecting

1281
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:04,640
Speaker 3: a role change that could sap his fancy value considerably

1282
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:05,040
Speaker 3: this year.

1283
01:00:05,560 --> 01:00:09,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, and uh, I think another thing too is just consistency,

1284
01:00:09,840 --> 01:00:12,680
Speaker 2: Like you know, there's there's certain players that you know

1285
01:00:12,760 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 2: they might put up what looks like good end of

1286
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:18,000
Speaker 2: year numbers, but like a guy like Mark Marquez val

1287
01:00:18,080 --> 01:00:20,480
Speaker 2: that's scanting for example, Like you generally only want to

1288
01:00:20,520 --> 01:00:23,440
Speaker 2: own him in best ball leagues because even if he

1289
01:00:23,520 --> 01:00:26,120
Speaker 2: puts up some decent numbers, and he very well could,

1290
01:00:26,160 --> 01:00:28,840
Speaker 2: it's like if you can't predict him and he's given

1291
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:31,640
Speaker 2: you a lot of like zeros and two's, you know,

1292
01:00:31,720 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 2: week in and week out, you know he could be

1293
01:00:33,640 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 2: a bust even if he looks good at the end

1294
01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:37,520
Speaker 2: of the year. Like Mike Williams was kind of like that,

1295
01:00:37,600 --> 01:00:39,600
Speaker 2: Like he's not He wasn't a bust, but he had

1296
01:00:39,640 --> 01:00:42,120
Speaker 2: some really good weeks and some really bad ones, and

1297
01:00:42,800 --> 01:00:44,320
Speaker 2: you know, if he had a few more bad ones,

1298
01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:46,640
Speaker 2: he probably would have been considered a bust, even as

1299
01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:49,240
Speaker 2: good as his good ones were. So that's also something

1300
01:00:49,560 --> 01:00:52,040
Speaker 2: to keep in mind. All right, let's talk about a

1301
01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:57,360
Speaker 2: couple more things. Let's talk about handcuffing. Really quick handcuffing.

1302
01:00:57,560 --> 01:01:00,280
Speaker 1: What is it? Should people do it or should they not? So?

1303
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:05,640
Speaker 3: Handcuffing is taking the backup running back typically do the

1304
01:01:05,640 --> 01:01:08,320
Speaker 3: starting running back that you took earlier in the draft.

1305
01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:11,800
Speaker 3: So if you take Dalvin Cook handcuffing would be taking

1306
01:01:11,840 --> 01:01:16,760
Speaker 3: Alexander Madison later on, guaranteeing you starting running back at

1307
01:01:16,760 --> 01:01:20,000
Speaker 3: all times for the Minnesota Vikings. This is a very

1308
01:01:20,040 --> 01:01:23,080
Speaker 3: safe way of drafting, and I think it's viable. Certainly

1309
01:01:23,120 --> 01:01:26,320
Speaker 3: in season long head to head formats, you typically want

1310
01:01:26,360 --> 01:01:29,160
Speaker 3: to make sure that your team's floor remains high, so

1311
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:33,520
Speaker 3: this helps you survive a disaster of Dalvin Cook missing

1312
01:01:33,880 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 3: significant games or just one or two games, where you're

1313
01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:38,520
Speaker 3: always going to have a backup running back like Alexander

1314
01:01:38,560 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 3: Madison to plug in in case he misses time. I

1315
01:01:41,720 --> 01:01:43,600
Speaker 3: think it's a viable strategy, and I do this even

1316
01:01:43,640 --> 01:01:45,600
Speaker 3: when I don't have the starting running back. So I

1317
01:01:45,640 --> 01:01:49,440
Speaker 3: will draft Alexander Madison whether I have Dalvin Cook or not.

1318
01:01:49,640 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 3: This could turn into potential trade bait down the line,

1319
01:01:52,760 --> 01:01:54,560
Speaker 3: or you know, I just hang on to him on

1320
01:01:54,600 --> 01:01:57,640
Speaker 3: my bench, and if and when Dalvin Cook misses time,

1321
01:01:57,680 --> 01:01:59,720
Speaker 3: I have a low end RB one at my disposal.

1322
01:01:59,760 --> 01:02:03,040
Speaker 3: So I think it's a viable strategy to take specific

1323
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:06,200
Speaker 3: upside running backs. Again, you can check out my piece

1324
01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:08,800
Speaker 3: for like the handful that I like to target in

1325
01:02:08,840 --> 01:02:10,320
Speaker 3: a lot of drafts, but this is this is a

1326
01:02:10,320 --> 01:02:13,000
Speaker 3: strategy where you can use it to raise your teams

1327
01:02:13,000 --> 01:02:14,560
Speaker 3: for or ceiling or both.

1328
01:02:15,560 --> 01:02:18,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, you just have to be selective about who you're

1329
01:02:18,280 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 1: doing it with.

1330
01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:22,000
Speaker 2: You know, Dalvin Cook is a very obvious one in Madison,

1331
01:02:22,040 --> 01:02:25,080
Speaker 2: where if Dalvin Cook goes down, they generally give Madison

1332
01:02:25,120 --> 01:02:27,800
Speaker 2: the same workload. Now, if a guy like let's say

1333
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:30,800
Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey went down, it might be like fonta Foreman

1334
01:02:30,920 --> 01:02:33,840
Speaker 2: and Huba Hubbard flitting carries, you know, same thing with

1335
01:02:33,880 --> 01:02:37,360
Speaker 2: Derek Henry. It might be Haskins and Dontrell Hilliard. We

1336
01:02:37,440 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 2: never know who's going to be the backup to Austin Eckler.

1337
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:43,320
Speaker 2: You know, they seem to never know either, So it

1338
01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:46,280
Speaker 2: really kind of depends on the running back. But if

1339
01:02:46,280 --> 01:02:49,560
Speaker 2: there's an obvious guy and you don't have to really

1340
01:02:49,600 --> 01:02:53,800
Speaker 2: overpay to get the handcuff, pretty cheap handcuff, that's always

1341
01:02:53,800 --> 01:02:57,439
Speaker 2: the best situation. All right, let's talk about draft prep

1342
01:02:57,480 --> 01:02:59,080
Speaker 2: and then we'll talk about mid season strategy and then

1343
01:02:59,120 --> 01:03:02,720
Speaker 2: we'll get out of here. Generally, how do you recommend

1344
01:03:02,720 --> 01:03:05,120
Speaker 2: people prepare for their finished draft?

1345
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:08,640
Speaker 3: I mean, listen to our podcast first and foremost I

1346
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:12,200
Speaker 3: would do that, and then I would check our rankings out,

1347
01:03:12,720 --> 01:03:16,680
Speaker 3: get a draft plan going in from each draft slot.

1348
01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:19,720
Speaker 3: So I'd say picks one through four, picks five through eight,

1349
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:22,960
Speaker 3: picks nine through twelve, have a general plan on how

1350
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:24,840
Speaker 3: you're going to approach it. Again, it could go out

1351
01:03:24,840 --> 01:03:27,120
Speaker 3: the window, but that's why you know, you want to

1352
01:03:27,160 --> 01:03:29,080
Speaker 3: do some mock drafts, best ball drafts to kind of

1353
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 3: get familiar with that. And then I think it's very

1354
01:03:31,360 --> 01:03:34,040
Speaker 3: important to know your league. If you have a buddy

1355
01:03:34,040 --> 01:03:35,840
Speaker 3: that you've known for twenty years, he's going to be there,

1356
01:03:35,880 --> 01:03:39,080
Speaker 3: and a Jalen Hurts Jersey he's a diehard Eagles fan, No,

1357
01:03:39,320 --> 01:03:41,400
Speaker 3: he's probably going to be targeting Eagles.

1358
01:03:41,040 --> 01:03:41,920
Speaker 1: Players, for example.

1359
01:03:42,000 --> 01:03:45,000
Speaker 3: So just kind of know where people are drafting and

1360
01:03:45,080 --> 01:03:48,560
Speaker 3: who they want, and you'll have an advantage in leagues

1361
01:03:48,560 --> 01:03:50,760
Speaker 3: where you're you know, close to everybody you're drafting with.

1362
01:03:51,800 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 3: And then pay attention to bye weeks. It seems silly

1363
01:03:54,000 --> 01:03:56,200
Speaker 3: to say it, but just pay attention. You don't want

1364
01:03:56,200 --> 01:03:58,400
Speaker 3: to end up with, you know, four running backs with

1365
01:03:58,440 --> 01:04:00,960
Speaker 3: the same bye week, so it's not something that you

1366
01:04:00,960 --> 01:04:03,840
Speaker 3: need to like overthink, but just you know, pay attention

1367
01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:07,360
Speaker 3: to your teams by weeks as you're drafting and you know,

1368
01:04:07,480 --> 01:04:10,520
Speaker 3: just preparing constantly through mock drafts or best ball drafts

1369
01:04:10,720 --> 01:04:12,880
Speaker 3: I think is the best way to prepare for your

1370
01:04:12,960 --> 01:04:13,920
Speaker 3: upcoming drafts.

1371
01:04:14,600 --> 01:04:14,840
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1372
01:04:15,120 --> 01:04:16,880
Speaker 2: I think it's always a good idea to kind of

1373
01:04:16,880 --> 01:04:20,280
Speaker 2: have an idea of the of the tiers and who's

1374
01:04:20,600 --> 01:04:22,400
Speaker 2: where the value is in each.

1375
01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:25,120
Speaker 1: Round, and so I actually like to do it upside down.

1376
01:04:25,240 --> 01:04:27,120
Speaker 2: So you know, if I know I'm going to be

1377
01:04:27,120 --> 01:04:30,400
Speaker 2: in a league with let's say thirteen rounds, you know,

1378
01:04:30,800 --> 01:04:32,920
Speaker 2: after you take out the kicker and defense, you know,

1379
01:04:32,960 --> 01:04:36,640
Speaker 2: I'll say, okay, in round thirteen, like which players would

1380
01:04:36,680 --> 01:04:37,720
Speaker 2: I actually draft here?

1381
01:04:37,960 --> 01:04:39,440
Speaker 1: Usually it's it's wide receivers.

1382
01:04:39,440 --> 01:04:41,880
Speaker 2: So then I say, okay, like I'm gonna, you know,

1383
01:04:41,920 --> 01:04:43,840
Speaker 2: wait till the end of the draft to draft my

1384
01:04:43,920 --> 01:04:46,600
Speaker 2: last wide receiver because I don't really want any running

1385
01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:48,400
Speaker 2: backs in this range. And then I might, you know,

1386
01:04:48,440 --> 01:04:49,880
Speaker 2: go to the twelve round and the eleventh and you

1387
01:04:49,960 --> 01:04:51,840
Speaker 2: keep going, and that's you know, that's you could kind

1388
01:04:51,840 --> 01:04:54,720
Speaker 2: of understand, you know, just so you have an idea

1389
01:04:54,760 --> 01:04:57,920
Speaker 2: and you're prepared, you know, with what happens early in

1390
01:04:57,920 --> 01:04:59,960
Speaker 2: the draft, you kind of have that those backup play

1391
01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:01,880
Speaker 2: of Okay, you know, if I'm if I'm going to

1392
01:05:01,920 --> 01:05:03,959
Speaker 2: go if there's all this value coming to me early

1393
01:05:04,000 --> 01:05:06,160
Speaker 2: at wide receiver and I'm going heavy at wide receiver,

1394
01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:08,880
Speaker 2: you know, when where when's the running back value going

1395
01:05:08,920 --> 01:05:10,720
Speaker 2: to kind of even out? When where's the quarterback valu

1396
01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:12,080
Speaker 2: you're going to be, where's the tight end value you're

1397
01:05:12,080 --> 01:05:14,400
Speaker 2: going to be. It's just kind of important to to

1398
01:05:14,920 --> 01:05:17,760
Speaker 2: know where those those different tiers are and like you said,

1399
01:05:17,760 --> 01:05:19,400
Speaker 2: the different drop offs are, and yeah, you could do

1400
01:05:19,440 --> 01:05:22,840
Speaker 2: that by mock drafting as well from different slots. I

1401
01:05:22,840 --> 01:05:26,320
Speaker 2: think it it actually even if you know your draft slot,

1402
01:05:26,400 --> 01:05:29,320
Speaker 2: like sometimes it pays to draft mocked from different slots

1403
01:05:29,360 --> 01:05:32,600
Speaker 2: just to kind of understand, you know, the different value

1404
01:05:32,640 --> 01:05:35,360
Speaker 2: because you know, you might get locked into one, you know,

1405
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:38,040
Speaker 2: way of thinking with one ADP and then you kind

1406
01:05:38,040 --> 01:05:39,720
Speaker 2: of see it a different way if you mock from

1407
01:05:39,720 --> 01:05:42,160
Speaker 2: a different spot, and that might inform your draft strategy.

1408
01:05:42,400 --> 01:05:43,440
Speaker 1: And just one more quick one.

1409
01:05:43,640 --> 01:05:44,960
Speaker 3: This is one of the things, this is one of

1410
01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:47,160
Speaker 3: the mistakes that even happens to me to this day,

1411
01:05:47,640 --> 01:05:50,919
Speaker 3: but it's important. Is if you're in a timed online draft,

1412
01:05:51,000 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 3: let's say it's a minute thirty second timer, have your

1413
01:05:54,680 --> 01:05:57,640
Speaker 3: cue ready to go. Like seven to eight picks away

1414
01:05:57,960 --> 01:06:01,840
Speaker 3: from you have enough players to where even if everybody

1415
01:06:01,840 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 3: snipes your queue, you're gonna have at least one player left.

1416
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:07,360
Speaker 3: There's no worse feeling than having no one eric Q,

1417
01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:09,880
Speaker 3: having no plan and having a minute thirty on the

1418
01:06:09,920 --> 01:06:12,360
Speaker 3: clock and you panic and you make a bad pick.

1419
01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:14,680
Speaker 3: That's usually the only time I make a pick that

1420
01:06:14,720 --> 01:06:18,080
Speaker 3: I regret is those situations. So always plan seven eight

1421
01:06:18,080 --> 01:06:21,200
Speaker 3: picks ahead on just a list of players where you're

1422
01:06:21,240 --> 01:06:24,160
Speaker 3: you're gonna have at least one player and your queue.

1423
01:06:23,800 --> 01:06:25,760
Speaker 1: By the time it gets to you. Yeah, that's a.

1424
01:06:25,760 --> 01:06:27,560
Speaker 2: Great point, and I would I would suggest, I mean,

1425
01:06:27,800 --> 01:06:30,840
Speaker 2: you could download our rankings and upload them to your

1426
01:06:30,920 --> 01:06:33,400
Speaker 2: you know whatever we oh, yeah, so that you at

1427
01:06:33,480 --> 01:06:35,400
Speaker 2: least you have your you know, your auto draft is

1428
01:06:35,440 --> 01:06:37,760
Speaker 2: going to go off, you know, you know, not just

1429
01:06:37,800 --> 01:06:42,360
Speaker 2: a site ranking or whatever. And most sites, if you

1430
01:06:42,440 --> 01:06:45,360
Speaker 2: just go into settings, you know, Yahoo, ESPN, wherever you're drafting,

1431
01:06:45,800 --> 01:06:49,120
Speaker 2: you can usually set auto draft settings up too. So

1432
01:06:49,560 --> 01:06:51,640
Speaker 2: the big ones that I would always watch out for

1433
01:06:51,720 --> 01:06:54,080
Speaker 2: are the limits, Like you can usually say I only

1434
01:06:54,120 --> 01:06:57,200
Speaker 2: want to like max draft one quarterback and one tight end,

1435
01:06:57,240 --> 01:07:00,520
Speaker 2: so that like if you accidentally, you know, time out,

1436
01:07:00,520 --> 01:07:02,600
Speaker 2: and let's say round ten, it just doesn't give you

1437
01:07:02,640 --> 01:07:05,080
Speaker 2: like a second quarterback, like, oh, I'm gonna give you

1438
01:07:05,120 --> 01:07:07,720
Speaker 2: like Aaron Rodgers after you already drafted Russell Wilson. It's like,

1439
01:07:07,800 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 2: because that's the worst, Like that can like ruin your

1440
01:07:10,120 --> 01:07:13,320
Speaker 2: whole draft because again, like you should really be only

1441
01:07:13,400 --> 01:07:15,720
Speaker 2: drafting one quarterback and you want to kind of max

1442
01:07:15,720 --> 01:07:17,560
Speaker 2: out those running backs and wide receivers.

1443
01:07:17,600 --> 01:07:20,520
Speaker 3: So yeah, but pre draft rankings is the best way

1444
01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:23,360
Speaker 3: to overcome what I just mentioned. That's awesome. Yeah, definitely

1445
01:07:23,360 --> 01:07:25,920
Speaker 3: recommend that. So you're not going for default rankings where

1446
01:07:25,960 --> 01:07:29,480
Speaker 3: they have JK. Dobbins over James Connor. Let's say, so, yeah,

1447
01:07:29,600 --> 01:07:32,360
Speaker 3: just have your your draft rankings set up in the actual,

1448
01:07:32,440 --> 01:07:36,200
Speaker 3: like you know, que so that when it does auto pick,

1449
01:07:36,840 --> 01:07:39,560
Speaker 3: hopefully it doesn't, or at least when you're scrambling, you

1450
01:07:39,560 --> 01:07:41,400
Speaker 3: at least have rankings that are in the correct order.

1451
01:07:41,880 --> 01:07:44,200
Speaker 1: Yep. All right, and let's close it out with the

1452
01:07:44,320 --> 01:07:45,560
Speaker 1: mid season strategy.

1453
01:07:46,240 --> 01:07:49,720
Speaker 2: You know, how and when do you kind of approach

1454
01:07:50,120 --> 01:07:51,440
Speaker 2: how do you how do you approach trading?

1455
01:07:51,640 --> 01:07:54,480
Speaker 1: Essentially? Well, in my.

1456
01:07:54,480 --> 01:07:56,000
Speaker 3: League is not a lot of people trade with me,

1457
01:07:56,160 --> 01:07:59,400
Speaker 3: but that's that's fine. But I like to do it

1458
01:08:00,120 --> 01:08:03,040
Speaker 3: raids where you know, I'm selling high end a player

1459
01:08:03,040 --> 01:08:05,400
Speaker 3: and trying to buy low. I guess a perfect example

1460
01:08:05,480 --> 01:08:07,880
Speaker 3: last year Mike Williams. I probably should have been trading

1461
01:08:07,960 --> 01:08:10,760
Speaker 3: him away after Week five last year. I could have

1462
01:08:10,800 --> 01:08:14,520
Speaker 3: got some pretty pretty good receivers for him. But just

1463
01:08:14,520 --> 01:08:18,000
Speaker 3: in theory, that's how you're doing it. And also it's

1464
01:08:18,080 --> 01:08:20,920
Speaker 3: it's hard to pry players away from other people. Usually

1465
01:08:20,920 --> 01:08:23,280
Speaker 3: they're very tied to you know, they're very invested in

1466
01:08:23,320 --> 01:08:26,400
Speaker 3: their players. They typically you know, value them a lot

1467
01:08:26,520 --> 01:08:29,160
Speaker 3: higher than they should. One of the things that I

1468
01:08:29,200 --> 01:08:30,640
Speaker 3: like to do, and you mentioned a lot is two

1469
01:08:30,720 --> 01:08:34,880
Speaker 3: for one trades. I love maximizing my starting lineup. So

1470
01:08:35,000 --> 01:08:38,719
Speaker 3: trading a Rashad Bateman and Alman Ross State Brown first

1471
01:08:38,720 --> 01:08:42,360
Speaker 3: of Von Diggs, for example, just upgrading one roster slot

1472
01:08:42,400 --> 01:08:45,439
Speaker 3: like that is something I like to do. But in general,

1473
01:08:45,560 --> 01:08:48,599
Speaker 3: it's you kind of want to, you know, seek trades

1474
01:08:48,600 --> 01:08:50,200
Speaker 3: out with a team that maybe they just had a

1475
01:08:50,200 --> 01:08:52,679
Speaker 3: couple of running back injuries and you want to offer

1476
01:08:52,720 --> 01:08:54,400
Speaker 3: them a running back that you have and try to

1477
01:08:54,439 --> 01:08:57,240
Speaker 3: get the receivers. So it's trying to find what makes

1478
01:08:57,280 --> 01:09:00,519
Speaker 3: sense for both sides. So look for teams that certainly

1479
01:09:00,600 --> 01:09:02,639
Speaker 3: have needs at a certain position, and if you can

1480
01:09:03,080 --> 01:09:05,680
Speaker 3: find an offer, usually it's it's a good thing to do,

1481
01:09:05,760 --> 01:09:08,120
Speaker 3: but it's in my experience it's been tough. But I

1482
01:09:08,400 --> 01:09:11,040
Speaker 3: try to, you know, buy a low and sell high.

1483
01:09:11,040 --> 01:09:13,960
Speaker 3: It's typically what I'm trying to do with my trades. Yeah,

1484
01:09:14,040 --> 01:09:16,080
Speaker 3: I think it's it really comes.

1485
01:09:16,120 --> 01:09:19,080
Speaker 2: I think the priority when you're trading is always to

1486
01:09:19,160 --> 01:09:22,920
Speaker 2: try to acquire, uh stud you know, like if you can,

1487
01:09:23,160 --> 01:09:25,640
Speaker 2: if you have like your example of of Bateman and

1488
01:09:25,880 --> 01:09:27,880
Speaker 2: aman Ros Saint Brown, like if you if you can

1489
01:09:28,000 --> 01:09:30,439
Speaker 2: give like a two for one and give two solid

1490
01:09:30,439 --> 01:09:33,599
Speaker 2: starters for a stud, especially you know, as it gets

1491
01:09:33,640 --> 01:09:36,000
Speaker 2: you know, toward mid season and you're getting kind of

1492
01:09:36,000 --> 01:09:38,679
Speaker 2: past some of those bye weeks where you're you're gearing

1493
01:09:38,760 --> 01:09:40,920
Speaker 2: up for the playoffs, Like those trades.

1494
01:09:40,600 --> 01:09:42,719
Speaker 1: Can be you know, very very valuable.

1495
01:09:43,120 --> 01:09:45,960
Speaker 2: Uh. And then I think the other way is you

1496
01:09:46,040 --> 01:09:48,320
Speaker 2: always want this is why you want to stack up

1497
01:09:48,320 --> 01:09:50,479
Speaker 2: on running backs because running backs are always going to

1498
01:09:50,560 --> 01:09:52,760
Speaker 2: be the thing that's in the most demand, you know.

1499
01:09:54,040 --> 01:09:57,320
Speaker 2: And then when it comes to waiver priority, you know,

1500
01:09:57,360 --> 01:09:58,880
Speaker 2: there are different ways that weeks.

1501
01:09:58,640 --> 01:09:59,160
Speaker 1: Go about it.

1502
01:09:59,280 --> 01:10:02,120
Speaker 2: Some some week do like the priority where you can

1503
01:10:02,160 --> 01:10:04,439
Speaker 2: you can use it and then like you have the

1504
01:10:04,479 --> 01:10:06,360
Speaker 2: one number one priority and then you use it and

1505
01:10:06,400 --> 01:10:08,040
Speaker 2: then you go back down to the bottom of the list.

1506
01:10:08,080 --> 01:10:11,519
Speaker 2: So and in some we use like the free agency

1507
01:10:11,680 --> 01:10:14,280
Speaker 2: that the budget, the FA A B. So how do

1508
01:10:14,320 --> 01:10:18,280
Speaker 2: you kind of go about, you know, your strategy with

1509
01:10:18,360 --> 01:10:18,920
Speaker 2: both of those.

1510
01:10:19,880 --> 01:10:22,920
Speaker 3: It's really a case by case basis. So unfortunately it

1511
01:10:22,960 --> 01:10:25,599
Speaker 3: does depend. But I think when it comes to just

1512
01:10:25,640 --> 01:10:29,160
Speaker 3: like using your entire budget or using a number one waiver,

1513
01:10:30,080 --> 01:10:32,080
Speaker 3: you're gonna want to get as many games from that

1514
01:10:32,200 --> 01:10:35,679
Speaker 3: possible from that player as possible. So if an example

1515
01:10:35,680 --> 01:10:37,720
Speaker 3: would be if Learner Fournett tweaks his anchor week one

1516
01:10:37,880 --> 01:10:40,320
Speaker 3: is gonna miss you know, one to two games, I

1517
01:10:40,320 --> 01:10:42,840
Speaker 3: wouldn't necessarily spend a number one waiver on like a

1518
01:10:42,920 --> 01:10:45,840
Speaker 3: Rashad White, where you know Fournett's going to return in

1519
01:10:45,840 --> 01:10:47,920
Speaker 3: a couple of games, so you might get one or

1520
01:10:47,920 --> 01:10:51,040
Speaker 3: two games out of Rashad White, Whereas a Fournett suffers

1521
01:10:51,080 --> 01:10:53,920
Speaker 3: a season long injury in Week one and you you're

1522
01:10:53,920 --> 01:10:56,559
Speaker 3: potentially gonna get Rashad White for the entire season and

1523
01:10:56,640 --> 01:10:59,519
Speaker 3: use them as your RB two or flex. That's when

1524
01:10:59,520 --> 01:11:01,439
Speaker 3: it's weren't said to use a number one waiver is

1525
01:11:01,720 --> 01:11:04,120
Speaker 3: the longevity of the value of that player and your

1526
01:11:04,160 --> 01:11:06,439
Speaker 3: team needs. If you're really hurting at running back and

1527
01:11:06,479 --> 01:11:10,080
Speaker 3: some running back like that's on the waiver wire, certainly

1528
01:11:10,120 --> 01:11:12,880
Speaker 3: you should value that player more than other people. But

1529
01:11:13,520 --> 01:11:17,439
Speaker 3: again it just depends on how much value that player

1530
01:11:17,560 --> 01:11:18,559
Speaker 3: can offer your team.

1531
01:11:19,240 --> 01:11:21,559
Speaker 2: All right, that is that's going to do it for

1532
01:11:21,760 --> 01:11:24,519
Speaker 2: the experts guide to fantasy football here on the Fantasy

1533
01:11:24,680 --> 01:11:25,680
Speaker 2: Flex podcast.

1534
01:11:25,760 --> 01:11:27,599
Speaker 1: Hope you guys enjoyed it.

1535
01:11:27,640 --> 01:11:29,760
Speaker 2: If you have more questions, you can reach out to

1536
01:11:29,800 --> 01:11:33,639
Speaker 2: Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker on Twitter

1537
01:11:33,680 --> 01:11:36,240
Speaker 2: at Chris Raybond. You can also find us at those

1538
01:11:36,240 --> 01:11:39,840
Speaker 2: same handles at the free award winning Action Network app.

1539
01:11:40,360 --> 01:11:42,400
Speaker 2: Be sure to go to actionnetwork dot com where you

1540
01:11:42,400 --> 01:11:46,880
Speaker 2: can find all of our fantasy football content, rankings, and projections,

1541
01:11:47,000 --> 01:11:50,200
Speaker 2: and stay tuned to the feed. We have a bunch

1542
01:11:50,240 --> 01:11:53,360
Speaker 2: of episodes already out on the Fantasy Flex covering pretty

1543
01:11:53,439 --> 01:11:55,920
Speaker 2: much every position at this point, so be sure to

1544
01:11:56,000 --> 01:11:57,439
Speaker 2: listen to those if you want a more in depth

1545
01:11:57,439 --> 01:11:59,960
Speaker 2: breakdown of the actual players instead of just the strategies

1546
01:12:00,160 --> 01:12:03,160
Speaker 2: that we talked about here. So until next time, get

1547
01:12:03,200 --> 01:12:09,320
Speaker 2: this money,