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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast. Are you going to place a

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Speaker 1: bet on? What?

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Speaker 2: What's going on? Everybody? It is a special week, It's

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Speaker 2: a special day. Today we have your Best Bets episode

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Speaker 2: for the eighty seventh edition of the Masters Tournament. Team

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Speaker 2: off this Thursday morning. I am Action Network Senior golf

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Speaker 2: writer Jason Soble live from Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta,

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Speaker 2: Georgia all week. Joining me today for a quick look

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Speaker 2: at this year's tournament are two very special guests. First,

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Speaker 2: we have Actions the director of Research, Evan Abrams, who

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Speaker 2: will give us an overview of the event from historical

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Speaker 2: and betting trends perspective. And we're also joined by Nick

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Speaker 2: Brett Wish, a golf expert and fellow co host on

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Speaker 2: Action Networks golf betting podcast Links and Locks. Boys, I

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Speaker 2: am fired up for this week. I know you guys

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Speaker 2: are too. Nick will go to you first. What does

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Speaker 2: it mean for you to be able to watch the

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Speaker 2: Masters this week?

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Speaker 3: Probably my favorite week of the year. I mean, you

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Speaker 3: come off March madness, you get the finals tonight on Monday,

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Speaker 3: and then take Thursday and Friday off of work. Just

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Speaker 3: sit on the couch all day with the cut swats.

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Speaker 3: I absolutely love it. Obviously, Tiger's back too, has a

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Speaker 3: shot shorter than one hundred to one, so I can't complain.

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Speaker 3: I'm excited. Let's get it going. I know there's some

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Speaker 3: sketchy weather coming in, so I think even more viewing

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Speaker 3: interest for everybody, and that's certainly going to change the

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Speaker 3: betting up a little bit here too. So I'm really excited.

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Speaker 2: Best week of the year, Evan. If you disagree, you

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Speaker 2: have to get kicked off the podcast right now. Listen.

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Speaker 1: It's like the start of the NCAA tournament for golf.

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Speaker 1: It's the easiest way I can explain it. It really

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Speaker 1: starts kind of the entire season and you get to

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Speaker 1: the majors. It just this is it, and it's beautiful

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Speaker 1: and it's gorgeous.

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Speaker 2: Let's do it one hundred times better than March Madness.

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Speaker 2: But I'll off the hook on that all right. Before

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Speaker 2: you get to our favorite picks, let's bring ev it

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Speaker 2: in for I'll look into some historical betting data about

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Speaker 2: the Masters and Ivan you're gonna les know which golfers

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Speaker 2: are taking the most actions so far this year from

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Speaker 2: the perspective of the book. So before we get into that.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk Tiger. Nick mentioned it. He is in double digits,

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Speaker 2: not as high as triple digits. Last year, made the

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Speaker 2: cut after not playing in the Masters, are playing anywhere

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Speaker 2: for more than five hundred days competitively coming into this one,

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Speaker 2: made the cut seventy eight to seventy eight on the weekend.

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Speaker 2: But look, he's an older he's not able to practice

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Speaker 2: as much. But he's also maybe a year healthier, maybe

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Speaker 2: a year more removed from that near fatal car accident.

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Speaker 2: I know you've got some great stats on Tiger from

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Speaker 2: over the years.

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Speaker 1: What he got, Evan, Yeah, so eighty to one walking

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Speaker 1: into this tournament at the moment, and there's always a

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Speaker 1: good chance, I say eighty to one now by the

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Speaker 1: time it closes, which I believe it did in last year,

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Speaker 1: gets about fifty to one. He tends to take a

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Speaker 1: lot of money, as we talked about, but eighty to

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Speaker 1: one right now, which would be his highest listed odds

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Speaker 1: ever at the Masters, and tie for his highest in

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Speaker 1: a major, which he was eighty to one at the

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Speaker 1: twenty two PGA Championship. So that's like from a gambling

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Speaker 1: point of view in terms of where his odds sit

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Speaker 1: at the moment, and obviously, I mean we talk about

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Speaker 1: this every year, but his infamous cut streak, right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's really the only thing you talk about with Tiger,

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Speaker 1: and people kind of talk about the odds there, so

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Speaker 1: you know, twenty three to twenty four, ninety six percent

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Speaker 1: best cut percentage. So that's really this stuff going into

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Speaker 1: the week.

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Speaker 2: I know we're gonna get into some of our favorite bets. Nick,

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Speaker 2: I like Tiger to make the cut. In fact, i'd

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Speaker 2: go as far as a top forty play this week.

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Speaker 2: It is still shorter than even money. Are you on

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Speaker 2: the same side as me there?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely? I think. I mean I like him a ton.

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Speaker 3: I try to make my own odds and everything to

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Speaker 3: find my value in the betting market. I got them

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Speaker 3: listed at seventy one to one, so a little shorter

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Speaker 3: than what the market's at now. But I mean there's

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Speaker 3: not much of a sample size we have to look

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Speaker 3: at in terms of current form. But what he did

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Speaker 3: at Riviera, he was fantastic with the irons, especially the

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Speaker 3: long iron play, which we're gonna need certainly at a

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Speaker 3: what Augusta. But yeah, I'm all for it to forty

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Speaker 3: sounds great. I think just his memory of this course,

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Speaker 3: his comfortability on the greens. He's finished at top forty. Absolutely,

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Speaker 3: and I'm ritting on Tiger all weekend long.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and look, I'm down for a top forty. I've

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Speaker 2: already said it. I will, though, throw this out there.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be a little warm and rainy the first

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Speaker 2: couple days. I think it's cold and rainy on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: If there's a day to fade Tiger, it's probably Saturday.

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Speaker 2: So look, if there's not much of a difference and

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Speaker 2: it's fifteen ties that make the cut this week, maybe

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Speaker 2: you play Tiger for the mad cut over the top

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Speaker 2: forty because things could fall apart when it's fifty one

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Speaker 2: degrees in raining on Saturday. I know my shoes are

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Speaker 2: going to fall apart out here at Augusta. All right, Evan,

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Speaker 2: I went back in. I was looking at favorites over

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Speaker 2: the last ten years. You went way further back than

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Speaker 2: I did, and you looked at the performance of favorites

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Speaker 2: here at Augusta since nineteen eighty five. I don't even

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Speaker 2: know where you've found this data. I want to know

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Speaker 2: your database at least, where do you get this stuff?

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Speaker 1: Sure, so let's just look at kind of the more

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Speaker 1: recent because it's been an absolute roller coaster when you

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Speaker 1: talk about the betting favorites, So the Master's favorite hasn't

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Speaker 1: catched cash the top twenty last three since all three JT,

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Speaker 1: Speith and Rory in twenty eighteen, so it's been a

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Speaker 1: bad stretch recently. But if you go beyond that, between

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Speaker 1: twenty thirteen and twenty eighteen, every favorite and every co

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Speaker 1: favorite cash the top twenty. So to me, it's just

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Speaker 1: kind of a noisy trend. It depends who is on top.

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Speaker 1: It kind of depends like on the year itself. The

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Speaker 1: thing that I found was interesting when I went back,

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Speaker 1: and I think this is the one thing you look

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Speaker 1: at is what about favorites to actually win it? So

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Speaker 1: the master's betting favorite to win the tournament literally Tiger

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Speaker 1: Tiger and O five Tiger and O two Tiger and

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Speaker 1: O one Tiger in ninety seven, and then you had

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Speaker 1: Fred Couples in ninety two, and that's it. So those

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Speaker 1: are the only times, and it hasn't happened since two

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Speaker 1: thousand and five where that person actually went out there

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Speaker 1: and won the tournament. So we're gonna see how it

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Speaker 1: goes this year.

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Speaker 2: Jays look, I never like chasing favorites. I'm not too

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Speaker 2: far down the board this week. But whether calling Scottie

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Speaker 2: Scheffler the favorite or Rory McIlory a co favorite alongside

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Speaker 2: of them, depending on the book this week, Nick, are

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Speaker 2: you buying in on a favorite here at Augusta this week?

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Speaker 3: As now, the shortest player I have in my outright

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Speaker 3: card is Patrick Can'tley at twenty five to one, so

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Speaker 3: I'm seeing him get steamed at some books. He's shorter

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Speaker 3: than twenty to one right now. So No, in terms

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Speaker 3: of like the Rory Scotti and John Ram if you

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Speaker 3: want to call them all pretty much the co favorite there.

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Speaker 3: If I had to choose one, I think I would

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Speaker 3: go with John Ram. I'd prefer Rory gets the Grand Slam.

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Speaker 3: But I just I don't love where his game's at,

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Speaker 3: and I do like the price discount with John Brown.

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Speaker 3: But no, I'm not going to be betting any of

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Speaker 3: the three co favorites if you want to call it that,

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Speaker 3: I will.

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Speaker 2: Have some rom. I have some rom already. When before

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Speaker 2: he started getting hot earlier this year, five wins in

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Speaker 2: his last twelve worldwide starts. He's never finished worse than

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Speaker 2: twenty seventh here. I might pay the Rom money just

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Speaker 2: to be here and watch Rory win the career Slam,

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Speaker 2: which I think would be really cool. But man ms

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Speaker 2: Rom's got that that little chip on his shoulder, and

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Speaker 2: I actually would not be surprised, guys if those odds

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Speaker 2: are posted to his rental house refrigerator this week, looking

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Speaker 2: at the fact that Scotty and Rory have shorter odds

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Speaker 2: to the guy who, not long ago was number one

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Speaker 2: in the world. Not long ago was guy that everybody

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Speaker 2: was talking about. All right, Evan, tell us about some

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Speaker 2: long shot winners. I know that for the numbers I've seen, Granted,

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Speaker 2: these numbers fluctuate depends on which book you're looking at

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Speaker 2: every year, but the Decky was sixty to one a

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Speaker 2: couple of years ago. Danny Willett I Dolph Odds dot

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Speaker 2: Com has him in the archive as fifty to one.

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Speaker 2: I think it got much shorter in a couple of

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Speaker 2: days right beforehand. I know some people had longer numbers,

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Speaker 2: but really, going back to Charles Schwartzel in twenty eleven,

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Speaker 2: we haven't really seen a quote unquote long shot win here.

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Speaker 2: What have you found about long shots here in Augusta.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So last forty years there was a very very

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Speaker 1: fun window. If you liked betting long shots and you

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Speaker 1: were betting between two thousand and seven and twenty eleven,

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Speaker 1: you had yourself a field day. So between Schwartzel at

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Speaker 1: one hundred to one and eleven, Zach Johnson at one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five to one and oh seven, Angl

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Speaker 1: Cabrera one hundred and twenty five in two thousand and nine,

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Speaker 1: and Immelman, who's basically the leader at one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty to one in two thousand and eight. Aside from Matt,

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Speaker 1: it's a decie in twenty twenty one, and everyone else

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Speaker 1: has been a little bit short of that. Like you said,

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Speaker 1: Will it was kind of a long shot, but came

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Speaker 1: in in fifty. The other in terms of flipping it

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Speaker 1: and going back to the favorites for a second as well,

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Speaker 1: since two thousand and seven only one golfer's won the Masters,

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Speaker 1: it's shorter to ten to one, so that would be

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Speaker 1: DJ in twenty twenty at eight to one. So if

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Speaker 1: you look at it from the longer point of view,

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Speaker 1: who do you guys? Kind of like there is there

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Speaker 1: anyone that kind of sticks out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Nick, who's on that card for you? I want

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Speaker 2: to hear one long shot, guys that you've got.

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Speaker 3: I took Tiger at eighty eighty five to one on

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Speaker 3: FanDuel on that one. Like it. Yeah, like that. It

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Speaker 3: was a good value for me if I hadn't met

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Speaker 3: seventy one to one and then the other long shot

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Speaker 3: I took. There's probably no chance in hell he actually wins,

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Speaker 3: but I love where his iron plays at. I think

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Speaker 3: it's the best stretch of his career in iron play.

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Speaker 3: I'll talk about him a little later in some other markets.

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Speaker 3: But Alex Norn at three hundred and forty to one again,

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Speaker 3: probably never happens. We're betting off better off going to

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Speaker 3: the top forty, top thirty, top twenty market. But I

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Speaker 3: do like Norn. I have him at two hundred and

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Speaker 3: ten to one, so it was one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 3: points a value for me which I don't think I've

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Speaker 3: ever gotten in the betting market. So I just buy default.

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Speaker 3: I have to take that because if something happened and

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Speaker 3: I didn't have that ticket, I'd never be on the

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Speaker 3: show again.

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Speaker 2: Well now that's so, might as well we're all gonna

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Speaker 2: jump on Alex Nora that I look, I don't even

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Speaker 2: know if I can call him a long shot based

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Speaker 2: on those numbers you just gave. But the longest I'll

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Speaker 2: go is Shane Lowry at sixty to one this week.

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Speaker 2: I don't think, like we just mentioned, there haven't been

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Speaker 2: a whole lot of long shots, especially in more recent years.

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Speaker 2: I think what we've seen is without one true dominant

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Speaker 2: player in the Tiger, it's hardy across the board at

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Speaker 2: the top where you look at these guys that they're

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five thirty guys where legitimately, if you told

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Speaker 2: me that's my favorite play, I think he's gonna win

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Speaker 2: this week. You really can't argue it. There are that

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Speaker 2: many good players out there, so I think it makes

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Speaker 2: it harder for the guys further down the board to

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Speaker 2: actually win this. I mean, if we're talking, you know, hey,

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Speaker 2: I want to throw a couple bucks on a you know,

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Speaker 2: two fifty three hundred and one long shot, why not.

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Speaker 2: I'm never gonna argue about that. But probably the furthest

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Speaker 2: down the board that I'll go is Shane Lowry re

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Speaker 2: top twenty five's in his last three starts ever since

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Speaker 2: he won the Open Championship. All right. I am of

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Speaker 2: the opinion, Evan, that experience no longer matters as much

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Speaker 2: as it used to at Augusta National. These young players

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Speaker 2: figure it out quicker, they do their homework more often.

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Speaker 2: But I have a feeling you're gonna tell me that

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Speaker 2: I'm wrong about this.

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Speaker 1: I mean experience, and going through history, you know, the

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Speaker 1: statistics are going to tell you're probably wrong. But listen,

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Speaker 1: no Master's rookie has won it since Fuzzy Zeller, and

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Speaker 1: you end up hearing that every year he did it

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Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy nine. But I think the other stat

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Speaker 1: that kind of tells you a little bit more about experience.

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Speaker 1: Only three golfers since nineteen eighty have one of their

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Speaker 1: first two Masters starts. That's the twenty sixteen Danny Willett,

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Speaker 1: who you know between eighty to one and fifty to

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Speaker 1: one depending on your ticket speef in twenty fifteen, and

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Speaker 1: then Charles Schwartzel. So it tends to not happen. And

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Speaker 1: then you kind of look at to the other side

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Speaker 1: of the spectrum, and as we talk about like Rory

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Speaker 1: who's been here fifteen whatever times and is still looking

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Speaker 1: for it. So it tends to happen kind of. And

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Speaker 1: I think you could back this up in that middle

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Speaker 1: zone somewhere where you have a little bit experience, but

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Speaker 1: it hasn't been you know, two decades.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I tend to agree with that. At some point,

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Speaker 2: especially with a very good player who keeps coming here

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Speaker 2: a year after year, like a Rory McElroy, that scar

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Speaker 2: tissue starts to develop. Look, we all thought Greg Norman

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Speaker 2: was going to win a Masters at some point. Never happened.

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Speaker 2: We all thought it was inevitable that Ernie Els would

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Speaker 2: win a Masters at some point. That never happened. Nick,

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Speaker 2: will you cross somebody off your list this week just

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Speaker 2: because they're only in their second or third time playing

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Speaker 2: this golf tournament.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's I think the trendy name too. That kind

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Speaker 3: of fits that narrative right now, especially taking webs caddy

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Speaker 3: is Cameron Young. You're starting to see his the steam

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Speaker 3: come to him in the market. He's shorter than thirty

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Speaker 3: to one at so books, I think he'd be a

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Speaker 3: fade for me. But overall, just in general, if they

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Speaker 3: don't have I'm kind of like on both sides because

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Speaker 3: then you see Kevin Now he's like a walking top

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Speaker 3: fifteen here, and it makes no sense. He's really not

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Speaker 3: that good of a long iron player. He's certainly not

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Speaker 3: long off the tee. I'll be fading Kevin Naw, but yeah,

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Speaker 3: just for the steam that's coming on Cameron Young, I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna fade that just because we haven't seen it. It was

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Speaker 3: a misscut last year. But other than you know, Jordi

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Speaker 3: and Schwartzel and Danny Willett, you just don't see it often.

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Speaker 3: My numbers do think that it's much more of a

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Speaker 3: predictable course. Those that play well here often should play

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Speaker 3: well here, especially guys in good form. So yeah, I'll

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Speaker 3: probably be staying away from the debutants in any market

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Speaker 3: and likely picking on them in matchups if I can.

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Speaker 2: All right, having I'm prepared to lose a whole boatload,

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Speaker 2: but I'm gonna just throw it on the expense report

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Speaker 2: on Thursday for first round leader bets because Justin Rose.

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Speaker 2: I know everyone talked about Charlie Hoffin being a Thursday

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Speaker 2: superstar at Augusta National. Justin Rose is held or shared

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Speaker 2: a first round lead four different times in his career.

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Speaker 2: But we all know first round leads are important here

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Speaker 2: at Augusta, because there's so many players who, even if

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Speaker 2: they don't win, go on to contend for three more days.

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Speaker 2: Tell us a little bit more about what you found

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Speaker 2: as far as Thursday scores leading to Sunday results.

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Speaker 1: You know, this is everybody's favorite stat that you're going

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Speaker 1: to see Thursday night. But in two thousand and five,

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Speaker 1: Tiger was tied for thirty third and at the end

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Speaker 1: of round one. Since then, all seventeen winners have been

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Speaker 1: T eleven at the end of round one or better.

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Speaker 1: Tiger in twenty nineteen was T eleven, So if you

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Speaker 1: take out even Tiger, there all T ten since two

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Speaker 1: thousand and five. So that's just really how important that

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Speaker 1: like top bunch ends up being at this event. And

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Speaker 1: then since ninety nine, twenty three of twenty four eventual

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Speaker 1: winners we're T fifteen at the end of round one.

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Speaker 1: So it's really just telling you that that early slay

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Speaker 1: now guy who likes long shots, maybe likes to take

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Speaker 1: a shot even second third round, it just doesn't seem

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Speaker 1: to be there at this event.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I tend to agree with you there, Like I said,

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Speaker 2: I'll play some first round leaders. Nick, How will that

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Speaker 2: affect your strategy going into round two, will you add

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Speaker 2: to the card? And it's kinda it's sort of a

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Speaker 2: catch twenty two because yeah, sure we want to add

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Speaker 2: to the card, but you're not really adding value to

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Speaker 2: the card. You're adding guys who are already up there

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Speaker 2: on the leaderboard to the card, so you're not getting

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Speaker 2: that value. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I think, if anything, this is where I'm probably gonna

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Speaker 3: bite the bullet and take John Rom as much as

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Speaker 3: I don't like the number at ten to one, pretty

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Speaker 3: much exclusively in the outright market, sixteen to one for

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Speaker 3: him to be the round one leader. And I kind

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Speaker 3: of like what you both said about the motivation that

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Speaker 3: those betting ads may be just sitting on the fridge,

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Speaker 3: like he's thinking Rory and Scotty aren't better than I am.

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Speaker 3: Maybe he comes out firing at sixteen to one the

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Speaker 3: one day that it should be pretty nice weather. I'll

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Speaker 3: go John Rawm sixteen to one, just because I can't

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Speaker 3: really get there in the outright market at ten to one,

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Speaker 3: and then John Rom is just gonna be someone I'm

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Speaker 3: looking at live.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk about one of the other try favorites,

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Speaker 2: if you will, just because they're all up there depending

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Speaker 2: on the book. But Evan, I'm telling you, Rory mclory

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Speaker 2: has done everything I've talked to him about it over

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Speaker 2: the years. He's tried to make this mean everything. Where

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Speaker 2: he comes in early, he practices hard. He's tried to

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Speaker 2: make it mean nothing, where he tried almost tries to

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Speaker 2: trick himself into believing that that's just another event, it's

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Speaker 2: no big deal. He's practiced a lot, he's played the

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Speaker 2: week before, he's taken off for a few weeks. I

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Speaker 2: don't know what else he can try other than just,

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Speaker 2: I don't know, go out and play better golf. I

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Speaker 2: know you've found some stuff on Rory and what it

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Speaker 2: would mean for him historically to win this golf tournament.

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Speaker 1: Listen, I just don't I can't understand it. At this point.

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Speaker 1: It almost feels like the mental game, because, like you said,

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Speaker 1: he's literally tried everything, and we continue every year to

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Speaker 1: make it the storyline because it is. But again, he's

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Speaker 1: going for the career Grand Slam, Jack, Tiger Hogan player,

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Speaker 1: you know, all these people that put it together. He's

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Speaker 1: been waiting for this to get on the list. And

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Speaker 1: then listen, he's playing his fifteenth Masters as we talked

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Speaker 1: about before. In terms of experience, only two players players

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Speaker 1: have won the Masters their first Masters in their fifteen

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Speaker 1: starter later, Marcomira Sergio Garcia. That's it, so you know,

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Speaker 1: being in middle zone that you know, six seventh, eighth.

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Speaker 1: Once you get to this type of level and you

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Speaker 1: haven't won it very difficult. I always look to fade him,

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Speaker 1: and I'm gonna do it again. And if I'm close

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Speaker 1: to Rom and his team, I make sure that he

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Speaker 1: gets a little look at those odds at the top,

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Speaker 1: because that that is some good motivation. And I think

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Speaker 1: something's always gonna go wrong with Rory, just always does.

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Speaker 2: His manager's name is Jeff. Since I'm on ROB this week,

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Speaker 2: I can certainly slip him that odds ticket. Nick, I

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Speaker 2: want to ask you, and I don't know the answer

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Speaker 2: to this, But because Rory, first of all, is such

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Speaker 2: a beloved figure, a lot of people like rooting for him. Secondly,

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Speaker 2: a lot of people want him to get the career slammed.

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Speaker 2: Does the public money veer towards Rory a little bit

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Speaker 2: more just because Hey, he's a good guy. He did

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Speaker 2: all this stuff for the PGA Tour last year, and man,

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Speaker 2: it would be really cool to see him finally get

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Speaker 2: a green jacket. Almost the type of public money where

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Speaker 2: it's not smart money, it's not sharp money, it's just, hey,

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Speaker 2: I want to have a ticket on Rory just because

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Speaker 2: I want to root for him. It's not big money,

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Speaker 2: but you add up a whole lot of small money

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Speaker 2: and it can become big money after a while.

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Speaker 3: Oh absolutely, I think the public's hammering Rory just watching

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Speaker 3: his eyes just kind of shrink throughout the day. I

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Speaker 3: mean I saw him open at nine to one at

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Speaker 3: a couple of books. Now he's down sub seven, Like

385
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Speaker 3: that's insane. I think to the everyday better it's just

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Speaker 3: they're betting with what their heart wants to see on Sunday.

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Speaker 3: And I'm not going to judge that. I think if

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Speaker 3: that's the way that you enjoy, you know, legalized sports betting,

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Speaker 3: I think that's awesome. It gets you in the game.

390
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Speaker 3: But I can't see any value in betting on him.

391
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Speaker 3: But I do understand the trends that Evan was talking about.

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Speaker 3: But I do want Rory to win. I do want

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Speaker 3: to find a way to back them. I'm just not

394
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Speaker 3: sure in what market I could do it. But his

395
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Speaker 3: swing speeds the highest it is in his life. So

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Speaker 3: as much as he has played the Masters, he's still young,

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Speaker 3: he's still you know, insanely fit. I think that his

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Speaker 3: game it's still yet to see a peak. I hope

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Speaker 3: where he gets it done. But yeah, in terms of betting,

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Speaker 3: there's just no value for me. But for the public

401
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Speaker 3: Joe's out there that just want to bet what they

402
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Speaker 3: want to see happen. I respect that. I think that's

403
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Speaker 3: pretty fun. But it is opening up the rest of

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Speaker 3: the board for us, for guys that are looking for

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Speaker 3: some value here.

406
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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great point. It does open up that board. DFS.

407
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Speaker 2: I've got them a little bit there as a small investment,

408
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:24,680
Speaker 2: but really on the betting markets, can't find anything I like.

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Speaker 2: All Right, last thing I want to get to. It's

410
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Speaker 2: been twenty five years where we essentially asked the question

411
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Speaker 2: what would it take to get Tiger Woods to not

412
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Speaker 2: be the biggest story and a Master's tournament. Well, apparently

413
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Speaker 2: it takes full disruption in the world of professional golf

414
00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,280
Speaker 2: for Greg Norman to steal a whole bunch of players.

415
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Speaker 2: We've got eighteen live golfers this week, there's only eighty

416
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Speaker 2: eight players in the field. Well, simple math Ivan, I

417
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:50,879
Speaker 2: can do math too. That's more than twenty percent of

418
00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,000
Speaker 2: the field this week that are live players. I think

419
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Speaker 2: it's inevitable if you're sitting at home saying, you know what,

420
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Speaker 2: these live guys they're only playing fifty four holes, they've

421
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,720
Speaker 2: only played three events here, they're not going to show up.

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00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 2: It's inevitable that at least a few of these guys

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Speaker 2: are going to be on the leader board come this weekend.

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Speaker 2: What kind of interest has there been in some of

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Speaker 2: these live players so far and which ones?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so interest is actually a good way of putting it,

427
00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 1: because this is kind of the lone stat you need

428
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Speaker 1: to hear. Of the top twenty five most bet golfers,

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Speaker 1: only four are from live Cam Smith, Brooks, Koepka, DJ

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Speaker 1: and Phil. And as you're here in a second, Phil

431
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,720
Speaker 1: is getting a lot of money, a lot of interest.

432
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 1: It's not a shock though, because it's just listen half

433
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:39,439
Speaker 1: from you know, most no comment, but most of this

434
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:41,879
Speaker 1: game is just the name that is. I mean, honestly,

435
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:43,919
Speaker 1: most people just walk up to the window and they

436
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,920
Speaker 1: see Mickelson, and especially not only do they see Mickelson,

437
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 1: they see Woods as well, and they see the odds

438
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 1: eighty to one hundred to one. So right now, and

439
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,480
Speaker 1: other than Phil, it's Brooks by far the biggest interest.

440
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:58,400
Speaker 1: The'se got top fives, top tens, coming off a win

441
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 1: on the you know, the Live as well tours, So

442
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:02,880
Speaker 1: I think people are really in on those two.

443
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,520
Speaker 2: All right, Nick, I'm skipping over the whole Phil things.

444
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:09,359
Speaker 2: We're not even talking about that way, please hear Look

445
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:13,680
Speaker 2: Brooks's it's a little interesting. Although I live about five

446
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,920
Speaker 2: minutes down the road from Orange County National, where Live

447
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 2: played at its event this past weekend, I can tell

448
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 2: you definitively there's absolutely nothing about that golf course that

449
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,159
Speaker 2: resembles anything about this golf course. So let's not go

450
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 2: too overboard. Cam Smith did not sound very confident in

451
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,120
Speaker 2: his own abilities when he was in the interview room

452
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:33,360
Speaker 2: just a few hours ago. And so you start looking

453
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 2: at other places. Dustin Johnson's played well, I'm a little

454
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:41,160
Speaker 2: interested in some markets in Taylor Gooch Abraham answer maybe

455
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 2: Mito Perreira. Nick the one guy though, that I'm really

456
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,640
Speaker 2: looking at, and I might wind up having an outright

457
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 2: on him. But I think there is value because, like

458
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 2: Evin said, they are not drawing much interest these live players.

459
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,680
Speaker 2: It's the guy who embodies everything that lives about. Hey,

460
00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 2: we're the bad guys, we're the villains. We're gonna wear

461
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 2: the black hat. Cool. Patrick Reid would love all that.

462
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,439
Speaker 2: He's gonna eat it up. He absolutely the twenty eighteen

463
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:11,120
Speaker 2: champion is going to embrace being the bad guy out

464
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 2: here this week, and I think that's what he's all about.

465
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,359
Speaker 2: So I actually like him better than anybody else. I

466
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,160
Speaker 2: think it's it's an okay, outright number. Do I think

467
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 2: he's gonna win? No? Do I really want to bet

468
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 2: him out right? Not really, But I think the top

469
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 2: ten market for Patrick Reid is very very interesting to me.

470
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 3: Nick, Yeah, I actually like Patrick Reid a lot. His

471
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,399
Speaker 3: long iron play something that's always been solid for his career,

472
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,639
Speaker 3: and he obviously knows this course can put with the

473
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,160
Speaker 3: best of them. But you mentioned Taylor Gooch. I think

474
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:38,159
Speaker 3: that's my favorite guy. When I was going through the

475
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 3: placement market here, I saw Taylor Gooch at plus one

476
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,440
Speaker 3: ninety in the top thirty market. That's longer than guys

477
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 3: like Tom Hoby, Kurt Kitty Yama, Ryan Fox, Taylor Moore.

478
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 3: Like sure, some of these guys have had you know,

479
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 3: decent years, but Taylor Gooch did finished. I think T

480
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 3: fourteen last year as a debutants are kind of going

481
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 3: against the metrics there, But I don't think Taylor Gooch

482
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,680
Speaker 3: is a fine young player. Every part about his game

483
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 3: is a plus that fits. August to hear long, iron

484
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,640
Speaker 3: plays awesome, short game's good, can make putts. So I'll

485
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,679
Speaker 3: ride the course history the one day a year sample

486
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 3: size with Taylor Gooch. And then Patrick Greed was another

487
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 3: guy that I did like, so I'm glad you talked

488
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 3: about him. And yeah, Phil Mickelson, I think it's pretty

489
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 3: much the reverse Rory that we just talked about. It's

490
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 3: just the name Brandon, that's it. So I don't need

491
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 3: to talk about him at all. And then DJ, I

492
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,119
Speaker 3: feel like his nonchalant attitude like he doesn't really care

493
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 3: what people think about him, obviously owns this course does

494
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,639
Speaker 3: fantastic aut Augusta a previous winner as well. I like

495
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,439
Speaker 3: the wet conditions for DJ. I think this is a

496
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:38,400
Speaker 3: really good spot for him as well.

497
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 2: A couple things. First of all, Taylor Gooch sixteenth are better,

498
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 2: and all three live starts so far this year that's

499
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 2: in the top third of the field. Look, they're still

500
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 2: playing competitive golf out there. I do think he's got

501
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 2: some value heat, by the way, ranks fourteenth in greens

502
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 2: and regulation on live this season. I've got a piece

503
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 2: coming out very shortly. He'll be on Action network dot Com.

504
00:22:57,760 --> 00:22:59,479
Speaker 2: You can find it on the Action app where I'm

505
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 2: breaking down by the stats best bets for live players.

506
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 2: Just in case you haven't been watching that tour this year.

507
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 2: There are indeed some guys who are playing some decent

508
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:11,679
Speaker 2: golf out there. Also some guys were playing pretty bad.

509
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 2: You got to be able to separate them going into

510
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 2: this one. And speaking of betting interest, Evan, you've spoken

511
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 2: with a few sportsbook operators about the betting activity this week.

512
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 2: What can you tell us so this.

513
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,400
Speaker 1: Isn't a shock to anyone. They really can't have Scheffler

514
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: win this, Like he is the top handle tickets at

515
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: most of these books, and he's really at the top.

516
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 1: And I think when you move past that, it's Speith

517
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:34,920
Speaker 1: and rom and then it's a brook and then it's

518
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 1: a group with Rory Brooks and Cam Smith. So in

519
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,919
Speaker 1: terms of like tickets and handle kind of all together,

520
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 1: those are the top golfers and in terms of liability.

521
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 1: I actually think this is kind of interesting. One golfer

522
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: that's top is Sahita Gala. As mentioned, he's, you know,

523
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 1: really one hundred to one or longer and getting a

524
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 1: lot of looks, and of course it's speaf so in

525
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 1: terms of handle and tickets, those are really and really

526
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 1: the golfers that can't win for some of these books.

527
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 1: That's kind of who you're looking at.

528
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 2: Look, I'm not going to be on Scotti Scheffler and

529
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 2: in any markets, but I will throw this out that

530
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 2: if you like Scotti Scheffler. He has defended three titles

531
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 2: so far this year. He successfully defended the WM Phoenix Open,

532
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 2: won that week, finished in fourth place at the Arnold

533
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 2: Palmer Invitational, fourth place at the match play a few

534
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,959
Speaker 2: weeks ago. He is proving himself to be a horse

535
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,400
Speaker 2: horse and shows up at the same spots every single year.

536
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 2: What about the long shot seven? Are there some popular

537
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 2: long shot bets out there for the public.

538
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm really sorry, I'm gonna have to do this again,

539
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 1: and I can't believe I'm gonna do it again. But

540
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 1: the answer is the golfer who longer in one hundred

541
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 1: to one with the most bets is Phil. He's twenty

542
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 1: fifth in overall in tickets and again going to another

543
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 1: golfer one hundred and one with the most handle. So

544
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 1: he Thinkala again. I think everyone likes to see the name.

545
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 1: They've seen him in recent tournaments. He's been in good form.

546
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 1: So those are both your guys and Phil. I'm just

547
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 1: gonna shrug. I don't know what to say.

548
00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 2: Can I get Thie Galla in a matchup against Phil

549
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 2: and my entire life saving on it? Please? I mean, really,

550
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 2: come on, what are we doing here? All right? How

551
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,199
Speaker 2: about least popular bets? Is there something that's just like

552
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 2: nobody's taken, something that's dropping like a stone.

553
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, So this is probably the part of the podcast

554
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 1: you've been waiting for, because these are probably the guys

555
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 1: you might want to bet. Min Moulee sixty six to one,

556
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 1: forty second in tickets, despite twenty fifth in odds and

557
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 1: the golf shorter than one hundred to one, with the

558
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:27,360
Speaker 1: least number of bets. Joaquin Nieman fifty five to one.

559
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 1: He's in that group with Mito Pereira for top South

560
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,919
Speaker 1: African I believe, And so we'll see.

561
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 2: But just no love interesting. Meto's actually playing a little

562
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 2: bit better than Joaquin right now. I kind of like

563
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 2: him there, but I don't know. It seems like there's

564
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 2: maybe some value on Joaquin again, maybe value on the

565
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 2: live guys across the board. All right, Nick, you and

566
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 2: I each have three best bets here. I'll let you

567
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 2: go first. We're gonna go back and forth. What do

568
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 2: you got? All right?

569
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 3: Quick, quick warning, none of these guys are American. I

570
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 3: didn't do that on purpose. I don't know how that happens.

571
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:02,239
Speaker 3: But we're gonna go with tear hat. Top twenty is

572
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 3: plus one ninety on FanDuel. I'm taking a little bit

573
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,679
Speaker 3: of a discount. He's a seventeenth ranked golfer in the world.

574
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 3: Obviously let down a lot of people last week as

575
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:13,679
Speaker 3: the stone cold favorite at Valero misses the cut, But

576
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,719
Speaker 3: prior to the WGC, he's had two of the best

577
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 3: back to back iron rounds of his iron tournaments of

578
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 3: his career. Since I believe twenty nineteen, he's shown the

579
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 3: ability to score it a gust. I believe he finished

580
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 3: inside the top twenty and twenty twenty one comes into

581
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 3: this year this year's event as a significantly better ball

582
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,239
Speaker 3: striker on the iron plays for my numbers here as

583
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 3: gir percentage from one fifty to one seventy five and

584
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 3: two hundred plus is fantastic, and that's where my numbers calculate.

585
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 3: Over thirty two percent of the shots should come from.

586
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 3: So I like Hatton to come back to form his

587
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 3: short games there we know he's one of the best

588
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,640
Speaker 3: potters on the planet. I like Yrel Hatten in Top twenty.

589
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 2: Also really bad forms. You get frustrated in this place

590
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 2: and give augusta National the one digit salute, So mayby

591
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 2: hatt holds in those frustrations maybe helps him play a

592
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 2: little better at my first best bet. I cannot believe

593
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 2: we've gotten this far into the pod without mentioning this

594
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 2: name yet, but I love Sunjam this week. I feel

595
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 2: like he's been building up to something really good, and

596
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,439
Speaker 2: over the last three years he's got a runner up

597
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,639
Speaker 2: finish and an eighth place finish. I've said for a while,

598
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 2: Nick that I don't think, first of all, the markets

599
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:27,399
Speaker 2: are reflecting how good Sunjay he is. I don't think

600
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 2: the public understands how good he is. I put him

601
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 2: on the same level as, quite frankly, a Xander Schaffle

602
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 2: and close to a Colin Moricaua certainly there, with a

603
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,439
Speaker 2: Victor Hoblin, maybe Will Zalatorus. I get it. Those are

604
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 2: all bigger names. They've all other than Zalatoris one more

605
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,959
Speaker 2: often than sunjaym. But I'm telling you he's gonna win

606
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,360
Speaker 2: a few more tournaments over the next year, and he's

607
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 2: going to be priced like some of those other guys.

608
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 2: I'm taking him for a top ten this week. Plus

609
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 2: three hundred is a really good number, I think.

610
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love that.

611
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 2: I thought that.

612
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 3: I was hoping Evan brought his name up in terms

613
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,159
Speaker 3: of just people that are being completely ignored in the

614
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,199
Speaker 3: outright space. If he can get to forty five to

615
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 3: fifty to one range, that'll certainly be a guy that

616
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 3: I jump on. He's got excellent course history here, long

617
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 3: irons are fantastic. Everything about his game is perfect for Augusta.

618
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 3: So I'm all over that ticket.

619
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 2: I like that a ton. What's you going with for

620
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:19,400
Speaker 2: your second best bet?

621
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 3: All right, next one's pretty simple. I'm gonna pick on

622
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 3: a debutante. I mentioned that earlier. I am going to

623
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 3: go with Seawu Kim over Meto Perreira. It is minus

624
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 3: one O eight on FanDuel, so Seawu is a slight

625
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 3: dog there. I know Mito's game has been pretty solid.

626
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 3: I don't watch much live, if at all. The data

627
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 3: I got for Metos long iron play is fantastic, So

628
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 3: it's not that I just don't like him. It's more

629
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 3: that I trust sea Wu. He's been a walking top

630
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 3: forty here every single time that he's gone out there,

631
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 3: even finished a round without a putter. If you remember

632
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 3: him putting with a three wood, I think because he

633
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 3: broke his putter. But as long as he can stay

634
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 3: in there, his his form's in a really good spot.

635
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 3: His putting's actually been This is one of his best

636
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 3: years putting on the PGA Tour, so I think, if anything,

637
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 3: we should get a better Seawoo than we've seen before

638
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 3: at Augusta and again, I'm just going to pick on

639
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 3: a debutante of Mito Pereira.

640
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 2: For those listening who don't often bet golf and aren't

641
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 2: paying attention on a weekly basis and sort of parachute

642
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 2: in for the major championships, I think you might think

643
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 2: of Seawou Kim as the guy. Well he's got that

644
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 2: super highest ceiling but really low floor it's either really

645
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 2: good or it's more often than not, it's really bad.

646
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 2: If you look at Seawou over the past year and

647
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 2: a half two years, it's actually completely changed around where

648
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 2: the ceiling is still pretty high, but he's got a

649
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 2: higher floor now. He has played much more consistent golf,

650
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 2: and there's reasonably if he will do so once again

651
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 2: this week. All right, my second best bet, Look, still

652
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 2: no Americans here. I'm going with Shane Lowry for a

653
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 2: top twenty at plus one point eighty. As I mentioned,

654
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 2: this is a guy who has played very well here

655
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 2: ever since winning the Open Championship a few years ago.

656
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 2: It feels like there's this line of demarcation where all

657
00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 2: of a sudden he became a major champion and you

658
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 2: can just see that the confidence exuding at him. Remember, guys,

659
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 2: they're only eighty eight players in this week's field, So

660
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 2: a top twenty bet this week you've only got to

661
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 2: beat what twenty two to twenty three percent of the field,

662
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 2: as opposed to a top twenty bet when they're one

663
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty six players in the field like we'll

664
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 2: have next month at the PGA Championship. So I think

665
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 2: there's a lot more value in some of these props

666
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 2: than are reflected in the numbers. All right, Nick, your

667
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 2: third best bet?

668
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 3: All right, So I'm going back to Alex Norn because

669
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 3: I'm sure we're not going to get a three hundred

670
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 3: and forty to one outright ticket. But Nortan is playing

671
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 3: the best iron from my data collected and the expected

672
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 3: data for Augusta, it's saying that this is the best

673
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 3: iron play streak of his career and he's forty years old,

674
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 3: So that was pretty mind boggling to see. Obviously, love

675
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 3: the short game, love the putting as well. With him,

676
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 3: I had the number in the top twenty priced at

677
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 3: four to one. You can get five to one on FanDuel,

678
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 3: and then in the top forty market you can get

679
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 3: one twenty five. I have him priced at minus one

680
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 3: zho five there in the top forty market. But yeah,

681
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 3: if this place for real, I'm gonna ride it. And

682
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 3: I know his short game can keep him around inside

683
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 3: the top twenty at AUGUSTA.

684
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that idea a lot. There are my

685
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 2: last one, one of my favorite names in Olive golf,

686
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 2: and an emerging superstar. I'm telling you, if you don't

687
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 2: know this name, yet remember it, get to know it.

688
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 2: Gordon Sargent is the number one ranked amateur in the world.

689
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,719
Speaker 2: He didn't even qualify for this event. He won the

690
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 2: NCAA Championship title as a freshman last year at Vanderbilt

691
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 2: was given a special exemption in luck. I'm pretty sure

692
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 2: the folks here at Augusta are going to start giving

693
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 2: an exemption to the NCAA champion every year. Well, they

694
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 2: sort of started this year. He is on the board

695
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: for top amateur at plus two ten. I would hammer

696
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 2: that number. He is, by and far, far and why

697
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:51,239
Speaker 2: the best amateur in this field, and I don't think

698
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 2: it's gonna be close. In fact, I could see Sergeant

699
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 2: finishing somewhere in the top twenty, maybe top thirty this week.

700
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 2: I just think he is that good. Well, this has

701
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 2: been a blast going over everything from a ghost of

702
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 2: this week. I cannot wait for this tournament to start.

703
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 2: You can check out all of our content the actionnetwork

704
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 2: dot com and the Action app for Nick brettwish for

705
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 2: Evan Abrams. That'll do it for this episode of the

706
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 2: Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel. For even more golf

707
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 2: betting coverage for the Masters, be sure to check out

708
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 2: the Links and Locks podcast, where we cover every tournament

709
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 2: all year long. Thanks for listening, everybody, Good luck with

710
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 2: all your bets. Here is open you at the.

711
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 1: Green Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

712
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 1: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

713
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 1: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

714
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 1: Gambler