1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Well, a lot of 7 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: commodity strategies are telling folks, particularly on the East Coast, 8 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: to get ready to pay more for gas. And it's 9 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: not just because we're going into the summer driving season. 10 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,520 Speaker 1: It's because we're gonna have a supply problem. Here. Colonial 11 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: pipeline shut down and that uh pipeline supplies most of 12 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:39,880 Speaker 1: the East Coast, and let's get the latest on that. 13 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 1: We're uh pleased to have Jay Hatfield. He's a founder 14 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: and CEO of Infrastructure Capital Management. Jay, thanks so much 15 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: for joining us here. And again, you look at the 16 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: map of the Colonial pipeline and boy, it just goes 17 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: right up the Eastern seaboard, suggesting that the folks you 18 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 1: know on the East Coast are really gonna have some 19 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 1: supply issues. What do you how do you think this 20 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: is going to develop great, well, thanks for having me on. Well, 21 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 1: one thing that's important to note about UM products pipelines 22 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: is that they can be transported using surface transportation. It's 23 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:22,040 Speaker 1: in other words, barges, UM rail and truck, So we 24 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 1: would we were expecting a fairly muted response, which is 25 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: what we're getting so far. So in fact, if you 26 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,759 Speaker 1: want to look on the terminal cr c K, you're 27 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:35,960 Speaker 1: only seeing about a thirty five cent increase in the 28 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 1: gasoline crack to New York Harbor, which makes sense because 29 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 1: of course that can be supplied by European refineries, where 30 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 1: what we just block us through the crack spread? What 31 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: is that? So it's just it's the profitability of refining 32 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: oil into UM gasoline in this in this case, and 33 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: so what we're not seeing on their screens oils a 34 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 1: little bit weak, and and our bob or the your 35 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 1: carber's moving up just a tiny bit. But what you 36 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 1: can't see on the screens is areas that UM are 37 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 1: less liquid and there's no trading, but for instance in 38 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:20,360 Speaker 1: Tennessee and landlocked southeastern states, So there you're likely to 39 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 1: get some increase, but it's going to be kepped just 40 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: by shipping or transportation cost. So other than maybe a 41 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: few cases of hoarding, we don't expect any significant shortages. 42 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: But I think it does point out the vulnerability and 43 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 1: of the energy infrastructure, and in particular UM. More sensitive 44 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 1: systems are obviously electricity and to a lesser degree, natural gas, 45 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 1: which is what you saw in superstone Urie, where when 46 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: you have the electric market goes out, it tends to 47 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: shut down other things like natural gas production, whereas refined 48 00:02:56,240 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 1: products like as I mentioned, can be shipped using alternative methods. Jay, 49 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,079 Speaker 1: what do you think the issue here is, I mean, 50 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: do you have any sense for the duration of the 51 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: shutdown and is there a point where it really does 52 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 1: become a supply problem? Well, it's it's the key issue 53 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: is UM safety. So it's the extent that the hack 54 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 1: gets into operational software and you have explosive fuels. It's 55 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 1: not like just bringing up a regular computer system. So 56 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: it's not exactly clear how long it could go. But 57 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 1: again it's other than some potential for hoarding, it shouldn't 58 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: be like when the refinery shut down in a hurricane, 59 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 1: we have an actual supply problem. It's just a logistics issue. 60 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: So it kind of it caps the the potential shortage 61 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 1: by the fact that you can just move the product 62 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 1: from different refineries, either in the West or overseas, so 63 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 1: we don't really see this as kept a catastrophe, just 64 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 1: perha some localized shortages. I've been trying to figure out 65 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 1: all day in terms of the nature of the commodities market, 66 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 1: why can't we price in um something like a demand 67 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: shock or a production squeeze ahead of the forecast x 68 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,280 Speaker 1: anti so to speak. It doesn't seem like, you know, 69 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: if we all knew oil was going to be at 70 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 1: eight by the end of the year, why wouldn't it 71 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 1: go to eighty now? Well, and what app tends to 72 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 1: happened with the commodity markets is they develop momentum, either 73 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 1: downward or upward momentum. We saw the downward momentum last 74 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 1: year and we had negative forty oil. So usually they 75 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 1: tend tend to build and they're not going to really 76 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 1: have that um spike until we really see the demand. Specifically, 77 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 1: what we're watching is Europe. So Europe is about a 78 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: month find the US in terms of vaccinations, so we're 79 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 1: really predicting global travel getton if they do catch up 80 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: as we're expecting, and just the nature of commodity markets. 81 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 1: They don't, they don't. They're not really good at anticipation, 82 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 1: so it'll sort of happen when it happens. J, real quick, 83 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 1: thirty seconds kind of what's your call for oil here? 84 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:22,360 Speaker 1: We've got a w T I crewed here at sixty 85 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: dollars fifty cents. Where do you think it is your 86 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 1: end um? We think that it'll trade in the seventy 87 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:33,039 Speaker 1: eight dollar range with the potential for a superspike. And 88 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,359 Speaker 1: the real reason behind that is um where we're calling 89 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: OPEC plus plus, which is constraint of the U S producers, 90 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: mostly due to the capital markets. So we think that 91 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,479 Speaker 1: will drive prices higher than they've been since two thousand fourteen, 92 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: because ever since two thousand fourteen, the US has been 93 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 1: the swing producer. But now the companies have moved to 94 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 1: being more value type stocks, so they're not going to 95 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 1: ramp up production, which gives us chance for prices to 96 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 1: of higher. With if there is a supply disruption, not 97 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:07,279 Speaker 1: so much just a transportation disruption, we could see, you know, 98 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: a possibility of a superspike, particularly during the summer. All right, Jay, 99 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:14,919 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. J Hatfield there, CEO 100 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 1: and founder of Infrastructure Capital Management. Let's get over right 101 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 1: now to Will Ride. He's the founder and CEO of 102 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 1: Grant Shares. They have over one and a half billion 103 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,720 Speaker 1: dollars of assets under management. At the end of last 104 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: year they had that, and I'm sure they've been adding 105 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: to them. Will. Um. It's it's a fairly striking move 106 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 1: that I'm looking at right now in oil because, um, 107 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:44,359 Speaker 1: you know the latest stories all say oil climbs with 108 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: gasolinea's cyber attack knocks out US pipeline. We know that 109 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 1: was the hot story of the of the weekend. But 110 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: now all of a sudden, I see Brent crude and 111 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: nim x w T I just coming down hard. I 112 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,919 Speaker 1: mean the move is over a dollar in brand in 113 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: the last half hour along what's going on? Yeah, morning, UM. 114 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: I wouldn't make too much of the use of short 115 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 1: term moved this morning, because obviously we had a big 116 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: move over the last few days. More broadly, you know 117 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: this year. Um, but I think we could be reacting 118 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 1: a little bit in terms of an over shoot over 119 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 1: the news of the pipeline attack. Um, that we saw 120 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: you heading into into the weekend. Alright, So well, I'm 121 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 1: looking at my on my Bloomberg terminal g l CEO 122 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 1: Global commodity prices UM. I'm seeing twenty thirty increases when 123 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: I look at ENTER on a year to date basis, 124 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 1: increases when I look at energy, metals, agricultural. What are 125 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 1: we seeing here? Is this simply, you know, just the 126 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 1: bounce back play or is this something more structural in 127 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: commodities going forward? Yeah, I mean I think it's more structural. 128 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: I think that this is a new supercycle UM that 129 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 1: has started UM but is now in sort of full 130 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: blown mode here. Uh. And and the reason's kind of 131 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 1: twofold that there's no doubt that there are some bounce 132 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: back plays kind of going on here. I mean, clearly, 133 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 1: we had, you know, a hugely depressed situation last year 134 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 1: for commodity demand UM that is obviously coming back as 135 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 1: the world returns to somewhat of a normal mode, but 136 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 1: mobility basically increasing. And so we have a record highs 137 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 1: now and copper, we have iron ore highs, we have 138 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 1: steel prices on the rise at the all the energy 139 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: complex rising as well, and and that that's understandable because 140 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 1: that is the same theme as we're seeing with some 141 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 1: of the pandemic equity stocks that were badly affected last year. 142 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 1: But I think what's less talked about is, in my 143 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: mind the kind of the the bigger picture here, and 144 00:08:56,640 --> 00:09:01,079 Speaker 1: that is that there's been woful underinvestment in the commodities 145 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 1: sector for many, many years, and that's because of depressed 146 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:08,679 Speaker 1: prices UM since the last peak of the last supercycle, 147 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: you know, around two thousand and eight. So with this 148 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 1: under investment, this under investment is now colliding with this 149 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: huge surgeon demand, causing in my mind, a new supercycle. 150 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: I think if the supercycle is not going to affect 151 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 1: all commodities uniformly UM, but as we transition as a 152 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: world to a green energy infrastructure, we're moving away from 153 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: hydrocarbons and we're moving to a green energy, sustainable future 154 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: that is creating and will create supercycle in many commodities 155 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: UM that are stands benefit most from this energy transition. Well, 156 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 1: I mean, it's not hard to to to believe that. 157 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 1: And frankly, we were hearing I've heard similar things from 158 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: others in the market. I was talking to Jeff Curry 159 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: to day from Goldman sachs Um and I think he 160 00:09:56,840 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 1: would agree what I don't really get is why, what's it? 161 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 1: What is it about the commodity market that means you 162 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: can't price in a demand shock and that kind of 163 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 1: under investment x anti Why why can't UM investors really 164 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: get ahead of these things? You know? Very early? Well, 165 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 1: I think that investors can get ahead of it. I mean, 166 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: it's it's one of these things where you know, right now, 167 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 1: you have in my mind a very um you know, 168 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: interesting phenomenal where commodities are out casting equities. So when 169 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: you have commodities outperforming stocks, that's typically, at least historically, 170 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 1: that's a harbinger of you know, higher inflation. That's not 171 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 1: necessarily good news for stocks. UM. We've add an environment 172 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 1: where commodities of underperformed equities for pretty much since the 173 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:51,199 Speaker 1: last to the peak of two thousand and eight peak. UM. 174 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 1: So in my mind, this is, you know, something that 175 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:56,199 Speaker 1: is real m for and a lot of investors hold 176 00:10:56,240 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: commodities strategically in the portfolio anyway for diversify reasons UM, 177 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 1: and so in this particular environment, I think people are 178 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 1: moving into commodities in a way that I certainly haven't 179 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 1: seen for a number of years to try and hedge 180 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 1: themselves against these inflationary risks that we're seeing. Will Ryan, 181 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. We always appreciate 182 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 1: getting your thoughts. Will Ryan. He's a founder and CEO 183 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 1: of Grantit Shares, giving us thoughts here about commodities. You know, again, 184 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 1: the question for a lot of folks is, uh, you know, 185 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: is this transitory? Are we seeing some of these gains 186 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 1: in commodity prices and therefore inflation as something that the 187 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 1: Photo Reserve would like to argue our transitory issues maybe 188 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 1: you know, going to the base effect where you're going 189 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 1: off a very very easy comps. Or is there something 190 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:45,719 Speaker 1: more to this in terms of maybe as Will was 191 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:50,240 Speaker 1: suggesting a supercycle in commodity prices which may bring some 192 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: troubling inflation back into the economy. So investors across our 193 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 1: border certainly paying attention to the commodity markets. Now, let's 194 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:04,679 Speaker 1: talk about getting access to private companies. There is a 195 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 1: trading platform called Forge that allows investors to access private 196 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 1: markets UH and allows shareholders and investors in privately held 197 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 1: firms to liquidated a portion of their shares ahead of 198 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: I P O S or you know, spack um combinations. 199 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: Kelley Rodriguez joins us the CEO of Forge, Kelly, tell 200 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: us about your company, your platform and UM what kind 201 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 1: of growth you've seen in in this year of so 202 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 1: much activity. Yeah, sure, thank you guys for having me 203 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 1: on UM. This has been a very big year post 204 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: peak of the pandemic. We've seen the numbers expand dramatically. 205 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 1: We reported that we've just concluded the third record quarter 206 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: in a row in terms of liquidity and volume on 207 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: on Forge. I think we have also seen recently that 208 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 1: we closed the acquisition of our large as competitor, shares Post, 209 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: and that created really a central ecosystem player and Forge 210 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 1: for anybody that wants to buy or sell UM, that 211 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 1: wants data or who wants to custody their assets. So 212 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: we're really trying to create something for the broad market, 213 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 1: all right. Kelly talked to us about spacks. That's you know, 214 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 1: I've been in the investment business for over thirty years 215 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 1: and SPACs is the growth of SPACs over the past 216 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 1: twelve eight months has really got my attention. It's just exploded. 217 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: It's always kind of been out there, but it's just 218 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,719 Speaker 1: really exploded over the last twelve months or so. How 219 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 1: has that impacted the liquidity event for a lot of 220 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: investors who might have typically used your platform to sell 221 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 1: stock and get some liquidity. Well, so two things. Interestingly, 222 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 1: the spacts are creating additional liquidity on Forge. So if 223 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 1: the company has announced such as Pioneer UH, you can 224 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 1: find buy and sell that spacking company before it's despact 225 00:13:56,120 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 1: on Ford. So it is bringing a hole another level 226 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 1: of liquidity for companies that aren't as big as the 227 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 1: previous sort of trend in pre i p O unicorns. 228 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 1: You know, if you take a look at the companies 229 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: that have been going public through direct listings or through 230 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,320 Speaker 1: a conventional light PIO the last couple of years, these 231 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: companies are between nine and a hundred billion dollar valuation 232 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 1: companies in the private markets about six and twenty unicorns. 233 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: But the SPACs are coming out and filling a market 234 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 1: interest in the sort of low single digit billions, and 235 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 1: so really it just looks like UM an alternative form 236 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 1: of going public. I do think there's been a lot 237 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 1: of hype around this to last year, and you're gonna 238 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 1: start to see it settled down and more of a 239 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: move to quality. Would have been the most popular shares 240 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 1: traded on your platform, I mean pre I p O 241 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 1: you know private companies that I guess employees um have 242 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 1: have shares in and need liquidity, so they put them 243 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 1: out there. What do you where do you see the 244 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:59,480 Speaker 1: most action? I mean, we have about four hundred companies 245 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 1: that have trade there on the platform, But the most 246 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 1: action isn't a company that's a large cap private that's 247 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 1: going to be public in the next day. So I 248 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 1: think Talentier back in Q three we did about five 249 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 1: hundred million dollars of Palenteer volume alone a sauna. Uh, 250 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 1: if you look at any of the companies that have 251 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 1: gone out Airbnb, just before they go, everybody wants a 252 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 1: piece of that that pre I p O company because 253 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 1: they know what's gonna be liquid it's just a matter 254 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 1: of the next sort of six ninety days to get 255 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 1: through their process. Ll give us a sense of how 256 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 1: the VC and private equity world has, you know, kind 257 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 1: of evolved over the past fourteen months as we dealt 258 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 1: with this pandemic, because ultimately, you know, those investors come 259 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: to you to get liquidity. What have you seen in 260 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 1: terms of you know, kind of that that VC market. Well, 261 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 1: I'm glad you're asking that question. We brought something to 262 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 1: market a little bit earlier last quarter that was called 263 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 1: Forge Company Solutions, and this really is meant to primarily 264 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 1: serve and put the control back into the company and 265 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:11,840 Speaker 1: the vcs that backed them around how they're raising primary 266 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 1: or secondary capital. And this is a really important thing 267 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 1: because these companies are now staying private for so long 268 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 1: the employee basis and the venture capital funds who have 269 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 1: seven to ten year lives are extending beyond the life 270 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 1: of their funds and beyond the vesting schedule of their employees. 271 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 1: So they need liquidity. They need capital, uh, to last 272 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: and to go ten to fifteen years. I think Palanteer 273 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: was a fifteen to seventeen year old company when it 274 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: finally went. So they're embracing this because look, it's an 275 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: employee benefit. You're gonna work for a company for ten 276 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: years privately, and you need liquidity to pay for a 277 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 1: house or send your kids to college. I think Forge 278 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: is the platform that puts that company in that DC 279 00:16:54,920 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 1: in control to manage that. So, um, when you look 280 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 1: at the public markets, Um, what difference do you think 281 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,439 Speaker 1: of Forge makes in terms of the way the public 282 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:14,200 Speaker 1: markets then evolve. Well, it's interesting, there's some definite blurring 283 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 1: of the lines in the last few years of a 284 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: company can stay private longer and raise the kind of 285 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 1: capital that you're seeing now happening. You're sitting rounds in 286 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,679 Speaker 1: the several hundred million rounds that are the size of 287 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 1: what an I t O used to look like ten 288 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:33,160 Speaker 1: fifteen years ago. A company can stay private longer and 289 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 1: really set a different path in terms of strategic investing 290 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 1: longer term value. And so the dynamic of being public 291 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 1: really creates a different shorter term quarterly dynamic around the 292 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:50,160 Speaker 1: shareholding UH and the objectives of the company. And many 293 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 1: managers and CEOs of private companies, myself included, want to 294 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:58,200 Speaker 1: have the ability to invest long term, and if you've 295 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:00,439 Speaker 1: got capital available to you in the private markets, you're 296 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,640 Speaker 1: gonna stay private longer. Kelly Rodriguez, thank you so much 297 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 1: for joining us. We always appreciate chattingthew Kelly Rodriguez, he's 298 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 1: a CEO of FOURD You giving a sense of how 299 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,919 Speaker 1: you know, in private investors are looking for liquidity, and 300 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: some of these venture backed and private equity backed firms, 301 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 1: as they wait longer and longer to go public, they're 302 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,679 Speaker 1: able to trade their shares or private chairs on the 303 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:30,119 Speaker 1: private market and Forge does that. This is Bloomberg. Now 304 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: I want to bring in George Bailey right now. He's 305 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 1: a portfolio manager of I G Credit at Aviva Investors. 306 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 1: And George, let's let's start just by talking about the issuance. 307 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,959 Speaker 1: It's been insane. I think I read a little bit 308 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 1: earlier that issuance at this point in the year is 309 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 1: the second highest we've seen it since two thousand ten. 310 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: Um Is this just companies that want to get out 311 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 1: and get some money in the low rate environment? Do 312 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:59,080 Speaker 1: they see it rising soon? Yeah? I think that is 313 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,680 Speaker 1: a big pot of I mean, we're twenty seventh cent 314 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:06,160 Speaker 1: behind the place we saw last year, but yeah, you're right, 315 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 1: if you go back to previous years, we're about almost 316 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 1: ahead of the ten pace. So I think that is 317 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: a big part of it. If if you're a corporation 318 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 1: and you expect high yields going forward, it makes sense. 319 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 1: Just the issue debt today, especially if you're trying to refinance, 320 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 1: trying to end debt rolling off and an issue longer 321 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: term debt, that just makes more sense. George, What do 322 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 1: you make of it when a company like Amazon announces 323 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,959 Speaker 1: a bond offering today and we don't know the amount yet, 324 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,159 Speaker 1: that's not been disclosed, but you know they've got a 325 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:41,400 Speaker 1: jillion dollars of cash on the bounty. They spew incredible 326 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,200 Speaker 1: amounts of free cash flow. They have no real use 327 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 1: for the proceeds. What's it tell you when and Amazon 328 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 1: dot Com comes to your market. We've seen a few 329 00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: deals this year and even last year actually after the 330 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 1: you know, after the pandemic in sort of April May 331 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: sort of time, um where you do see a big 332 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:03,399 Speaker 1: corporations that don't necessarily need to issue debt. They have 333 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: the cash on their balance sheet, but they do it because, 334 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 1: like you said, it's just cheap financing for them. Um. 335 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,680 Speaker 1: So if they can raise the money via the debt markets, 336 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:13,919 Speaker 1: then it just makes sense and have that cash as 337 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,639 Speaker 1: a buffer on the balance sheet. Now no, now that 338 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 1: being said, that is part of what we're looking at. 339 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,159 Speaker 1: So when they issue debt and you raise cash in 340 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,800 Speaker 1: your balance sheet, it's it's as a credit investor, you're 341 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,399 Speaker 1: really asking what are they doing with that cash? Are 342 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,879 Speaker 1: they giving it back to the shareholders? Are they engaging 343 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,120 Speaker 1: the m and A? So really that is the focus 344 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:35,679 Speaker 1: going forward. What are you doing as a credit investor? 345 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: I mean, what what moves can you make right now 346 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: with fresh money? Can you can you find value out 347 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 1: there or can you only hope to I guess preserve 348 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 1: your capital. Yeah, evaluation doesn't matter what asset class. Year. 349 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 1: In a moment, it seems evaluations are tough to come by. 350 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:57,400 Speaker 1: There are pockets of investment grade we like, so banking 351 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 1: in particular, they've just got done a lot of supply 352 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: and we've got that out of the way, so so 353 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,400 Speaker 1: that's nice. And also telecom to so with those big 354 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 1: supply overhangs out the way, we do see value their 355 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 1: further out the curve um. But yeah, also in high 356 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,679 Speaker 1: yield aswell. If you look at triple bees, so the 357 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: lower part of investment great quality versus say double bees, 358 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 1: the higher quality part of the high yield market, we 359 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:22,960 Speaker 1: do see value there in the front. And where you're 360 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,639 Speaker 1: you're picking yield, is it's worth it for a similar 361 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 1: risk profile, similar fundamentals, just dipping down into that high 362 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 1: yield space. George talked to us about credit quality. Here. 363 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 1: We're fourteen months into this pandemic and the economic shock 364 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,879 Speaker 1: that it it caused. Are you seeing material deterioration in 365 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:46,359 Speaker 1: certain parts of the portfolio. Not really. The fundamentals are 366 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 1: holding up, and I think that will be the case 367 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 1: going forward, at least over the near future, while the 368 00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 1: macro backdrop remains strong. Um So, while we have all 369 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,199 Speaker 1: the doubst duo with yelling and power and then just 370 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 1: the macro factors coming through. We have a few prints 371 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 1: coming this week with retail sales and other points. I 372 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:06,919 Speaker 1: think if if the macro back that it should just 373 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,639 Speaker 1: stay strong. I don't think we'll see many cracks in 374 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,119 Speaker 1: the fundamentals. The other big part of it as well 375 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: as the markets will just remain open. I mean what 376 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:16,639 Speaker 1: you've been talking about, their just the amount of supply 377 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,720 Speaker 1: we've seen this year. If the markets remain open and 378 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 1: corporations can do that, then that really just keeps the 379 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 1: fundamentals strong. So it's no really cracks to speak of 380 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:29,560 Speaker 1: our moment. And default rates also remain pretty manageable. I 381 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:35,640 Speaker 1: guess visibility is good as long as vaccinations continue to increase, right, 382 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:39,239 Speaker 1: that's got to be the key, the keystone of the 383 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 1: economic recovering. Yeah, and we've seen a lot of credit 384 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 1: strategists points of those sort of data points. Now, it's 385 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 1: not it's not just looking at the fundamentals or corporations. 386 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 1: It's okay, let's look at the vaccine rollout, let's look 387 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 1: at the cases, let's look at hospital beds. Um. So 388 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:58,360 Speaker 1: it's all different data points now, isn't just the fundamentals 389 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:03,200 Speaker 1: of a corporation? All right, George? The FED has signaled 390 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,120 Speaker 1: lower for longer, yet there are some inflation pressures. What 391 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:12,639 Speaker 1: are you baking into your base cases to the FEDS moves. Yeah, 392 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: We're started to see that come through a bit in 393 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,880 Speaker 1: the data, these inflationary pressure pressures. And you only need 394 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 1: to look at the commodity prices over the last six 395 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 1: months or so, they've doubled, two quadrupled in some places. 396 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 1: We've seen that come through there, and then we started 397 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 1: to see it a bit on Friday's non farm payrolls report, 398 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:34,360 Speaker 1: some wage inflation coming through. So yeah, it's definitely a concern. 399 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: I think if it stays around sort of the three 400 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,160 Speaker 1: percent level where the FED wants to see inflation growth 401 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,679 Speaker 1: but not know out of hand, UM, I think that 402 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 1: is good for just global growth, and we could see 403 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,119 Speaker 1: yields move a bit higher. Um. But I think we 404 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 1: need to just look at some more data points and 405 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,360 Speaker 1: going forward to see if this really is trans transitory 406 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 1: or or whether it could just be more sustained. George, 407 00:23:56,600 --> 00:24:00,159 Speaker 1: I wonder you're a cf A. How much harder do 408 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:01,720 Speaker 1: you think it is to get now than when when 409 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:06,400 Speaker 1: Paul took the test? Well, it's much harder back then, 410 00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:10,119 Speaker 1: you know, of course, Yeah, we had to go we 411 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 1: had to go walk uphill both ways to get to 412 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 1: the to the testing site. Uh. And aren't they making 413 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 1: it more difficult now? I don't know. I don't know 414 00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 1: if they are. Um, it's certainly it's going all digital. 415 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,440 Speaker 1: I know that that that that's the big change. So 416 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,680 Speaker 1: making changing with the times. George Bailey, thanks so much 417 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 1: for joining us there. George Bailey, he's a portfolio manager 418 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 1: covering the investment grade market for Aviva Investors, getting his 419 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:35,240 Speaker 1: thoughts on these markets here. Credit quality holding in their 420 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 1: fundamentals remain solid. The FED remains on the sideline to 421 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:43,879 Speaker 1: search is four yield. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening 422 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:47,400 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen 423 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 1: to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 424 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three 425 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 1: put on boul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney 426 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,719 Speaker 1: Before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at 427 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio m