1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to another edition of Big Blue Kick Off live 2 00:00:02,120 --> 00:00:04,560 Speaker 1: right here on giants dot com. I'm John Schmelki's Jeff 3 00:00:04,600 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: Eagles and the phone number for you is two A 4 00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: one nine three nine four five one three, or you 5 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:12,039 Speaker 1: could go to Twitter at hashtag giants Chat. We're actually 6 00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: not gonna take your phone calls today. We've told you 7 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: about this show for the last week or so. We're 8 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: gonna be joined by one of Pro football focuses UH analysts, 9 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,240 Speaker 1: one of their analytic gurus, and we'll be taking UH 10 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:26,119 Speaker 1: doing an interview with him over the course of the show, 11 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 1: informing you guys as to exactly what the analytics side 12 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: of their operation is, how they do it, and we're 13 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 1: gonna try to learn a little bit and bring all 14 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:35,599 Speaker 1: that into focus. But if you want to send your 15 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,840 Speaker 1: questions the hashtag giants Chat over the course of the show, 16 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:41,959 Speaker 1: I might pose some of those to our guests as 17 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: you go along. Jeff, how are you you know our 18 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:47,879 Speaker 1: new Thursdays or Friday? And it's true, by the way, 19 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: folks on remind you, no show tomorrow and then we're 20 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: off all next week, so we're not gonna see you 21 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 1: until the following Monday. I believe that's July nine, if 22 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken, and that's when we're gonna speak next. 23 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: So without further ado, let's go to our guest from 24 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: Pro Football Focused, UM, their analytics guy, one of their 25 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 1: many analytics guy, George Sharury, and he joined us right 26 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,759 Speaker 1: now on Big Blue Kickoff Live. George, I was practicing. 27 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 1: Your name is someone with the last name Schmelt that 28 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 1: always gets it butchered, George SHARRUI, did I get that correct? 29 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 1: You know I'm gonna give you. I'm gonna give you 30 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: a passing grade there, Okay, seven out of ten. Okay, 31 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 1: you didn't destroy it, so that's a good thing. What 32 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 1: is the correct way to say, George, So, to be 33 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 1: perfectly honest with you, I am still not if my 34 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: dad is really the only person in our family that 35 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: sets it perfectly. Um, he was the only guy that 36 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: was actually born in Lebanon, so I was born in 37 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 1: the state. But my best effort is Chafer SHAHRUI. Okay, 38 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: there you go. I can do that, but I'm gonna 39 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 1: stick with George for the next sixty minutes. If you're 40 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 1: okay with that, George, all right, here we go. George 41 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 1: let's start at the basics here. UM. And again I 42 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: was want to make clear to the fans we're not 43 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 1: talking about their player grading and things like that. This 44 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 1: is the numbers inside what's important in football type of 45 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 1: angles we're going to be taking on today's show. So, George, 46 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 1: let's let's keep this simple and start real basic on offense, 47 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 1: How do you guys determine if a play is a 48 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 1: success and to what level it's a success or a failure, 49 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 1: and let's kind of build from there. Yeah, I think 50 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: it's a good place to start. Um. One of the 51 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 1: things that we use quite often something called expected points 52 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: uh to something that if you've ever read the book 53 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,519 Speaker 1: Hidden Game of Football from that they came up with, 54 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:39,519 Speaker 1: and basically what it aims to do is say, given 55 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: your down distance and your field position, mathematically, what should 56 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: I expect to score on the next scoring play? And 57 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 1: so you can imagine if you're expected points is positive, 58 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 1: you expect to score next, and you're expected points are negative, 59 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 1: you expect the defense to score next. You can imagine 60 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 1: if you're backed up, for example, that you're you know, 61 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: owned five yard line or something like that. UM. And 62 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 1: the great thing about this is that It allows us 63 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 1: then on the subsequent play to recalculate the expected points. 64 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 1: And so if that play was a success, then I've 65 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 1: increased my expected point scoring on the next play, in 66 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:18,239 Speaker 1: other words, my probability of scoring next Um. And if 67 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 1: I've you know, failed on that way, well then I've 68 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 1: decreased it. And so one of the ways that we 69 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:26,799 Speaker 1: measure success is saying, you know, what's your e p A? 70 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: Are you expected points added on a certain type of 71 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 1: play or certain situations in a game? Interesting? So let 72 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: me start here. Then, obviously you started first intent. Second 73 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 1: intent is obviously worse than first intent, that's obvious. At 74 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: what point is second and what yardage a better situation 75 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 1: than first intent? Is it second and seven? Is it 76 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 1: second and six? What's that line of demarcation there for 77 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: what a successful yards gained on first down would be 78 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: to add an expected points value to where the team is. 79 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: That's a good question. So, um, the one thing that 80 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: I'll mention is a little bit of context here to 81 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: understand e p A is that what it does that 82 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 1: puts those in context? Right, So I have five yard 83 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: gain on third and ten is going to be weighed 84 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,359 Speaker 1: much differently than a five yard gain on say third 85 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: and four. So if we're on second and five, let's say, 86 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 1: why don't you pick a yard a yard line that 87 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 1: you want to be at. What's your favorite yard line? 88 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:32,599 Speaker 1: Let's say it's a touchback off the kickoff. Let's say, okay, cool, 89 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: So if we're at second and five, for example, I'm 90 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:38,720 Speaker 1: going to calculate this right now in the moment where 91 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:43,479 Speaker 1: you you're lucky. Don't don't, don't ask is to do 92 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: any math math equations here. I'll try I'll try not to. Um. Yeah, 93 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: so we're a second and five from the five. Here 94 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 1: go our e p A will be about ilet's say, 95 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:03,600 Speaker 1: about one point seven. Well I'm getting right here. Um, 96 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: So first and ten, second and five you're about the 97 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 1: same as first and ten. Um. I'll have to make 98 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 1: sure that's correct. I've got to check one thing, but 99 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:15,600 Speaker 1: that's that would be my guess that second fives that 100 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: tends first intent. Okay, interesting because I think more from 101 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: that n right correct? So I was I think most 102 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 1: fans would think if you rush for four yards on 103 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 1: first down and you're looking at second and six, you're 104 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: in a mitch much better spot than you were at 105 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 1: first in ten but based on um, you know, the 106 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 1: odds and calculations and and everything you guys have in 107 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:39,799 Speaker 1: your formula, that might not necessarily be the case. Yeah, 108 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: it's interesting because it fluctuates from first, you know, one 109 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 1: of the important factors, and this thing is actually season 110 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:48,840 Speaker 1: season things change, right, because not every season is who's 111 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: created equally, and so that's actually a feature in our 112 00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: model that we use. And we see little fluctuations in 113 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 1: terms of where expected points are on at various feel 114 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: positions depending on what season you're in. And then of course, um, 115 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 1: you know, there's just some seasons are a little irregular, 116 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:07,279 Speaker 1: so um that also matters. And then of course the 117 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 1: yard line that you're at also plays a role in 118 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: does whether ever play a role in any of this stuff, 119 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: you know, late games games, um, night games, outdoor, indoor 120 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 1: or even strengths of both teams on the field things. Yeah, 121 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 1: so that we bring that in. The expected points is 122 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:29,679 Speaker 1: basically a very basic layer of everything, right, It aims 123 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 1: to sort of even everything out, and then what we 124 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 1: add on top of it is exactly what you're talking about. Right. 125 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 1: So let's say I'm trying to compute win probability in 126 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 1: the game, there I want to take into account, you know, 127 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,600 Speaker 1: who's playing in the game, who's the quarterback, how good 128 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 1: is the defense that he's facing. Um, you know, what's 129 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: the score of the game, all these different things, and 130 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 1: there I might take into account, you know, if it's 131 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: an incredibly windy game or something like that. We want 132 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 1: to be careful not to take into account things that 133 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 1: are really sparse data wise. Yeah, because you know, our 134 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 1: our goal is sort of too you know, not we 135 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 1: want to not worry as much about the outliers as 136 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 1: we do kind of the big chunk of things. Um. 137 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: But certainly, look, strength of strength of players on the 138 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:17,200 Speaker 1: field is a huge determinant of you know, all the 139 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: things that we're trying to predict. So expected points adds 140 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 1: a layer to all of that and we can sort 141 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: of use it in general terms. And then when we 142 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 1: try and become more predictive in our analysis, that's where 143 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: we add in the team fascet strength, you know, George, 144 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 1: And I think you bring up a really good point 145 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 1: because I feel like and I frankly, I think it 146 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 1: does the analytics guys a disservice. Sometimes when you hear 147 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 1: people say, well, it doesn't matter who's playing if you're 148 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 1: between the forties and it's fourth down, you should always 149 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 1: go for it no matter what. And I think the 150 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: context that you just placed on it is important, and 151 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: I think why some fans don't get it and they 152 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: get confuses that they hear these blankets statements. But I 153 00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: think for some teams, if it's fourth in five at 154 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 1: the fifty yard line, going forward is certainly the right move, 155 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: depending on who the opponent is and the score. But 156 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 1: for another team, you know, fourth and seven at the 157 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 1: fifty might not be a great idea to go for 158 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 1: it here because of the strengths of the team's how 159 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: the game's going, you know, how their third down defense is, 160 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: the third down offenses, etcetera. And I think that it's important, 161 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 1: and I think you made the great point that people 162 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: understand that it's not a blanket universal statement these numbers. 163 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 1: They are affected by the players on the field and 164 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: the strength of the teams. Uh that you're almost putting 165 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 1: into these formulas. Correct. Yeah, now that's an excellent point. 166 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:38,440 Speaker 1: It's one of the things that we're really curious about 167 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: is how can we analyze decision making, because I think 168 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 1: that's a huge, um, you know, a huge place where 169 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: teams can gain a big advantage. It's from making you know, 170 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,079 Speaker 1: maybe non conventional decisions that turn out to be really 171 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 1: logical decisions if you look at the at the numbers, 172 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 1: you know, and going at for it on fourth down 173 00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: is the ultimate case of that. Right. But you'll notice, 174 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 1: and we've looked at this a little bit, is if 175 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: we just take a look at decisions, let's say between 176 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: kicking a field goal and going for it. You know, 177 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:12,079 Speaker 1: in situations where you're within field goal range, um, the 178 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 1: teams that tend to do with the least have the 179 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: worst offenses. The ones that stick out to you are 180 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 1: the teams that, you know, maybe having above average offense 181 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 1: or maybe even at top of the league offense, yet 182 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 1: are continually choosing to score three points instead of giving 183 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 1: themselves an opportunity to score uh, you know seven. And 184 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 1: one of one of my favorite things to tell people is, 185 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: you know, three plus three is still less than seven. 186 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: You know, you can get two field goals and it's 187 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 1: still not worth a touchdown. And the idea that you know, 188 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 1: kicking a field goal is great because you put points 189 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: on the board isn't always the case because you know, 190 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: say you were to turn the ball over on down 191 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 1: that field position might actually be you know, better off 192 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 1: for your defense going out there, and so all those 193 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 1: things are taken into the equation, you know, as well 194 00:09:57,280 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 1: as of course how good the teams are. Um, you know, 195 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 1: if you're a good offensive team, that probably swings in 196 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 1: your favorite more so obviously, here here's another question, just 197 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: to stick with the whole field goal touchdown decision. Would you, guys, 198 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 1: when you're talking about decision making whether it's the correct 199 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: decision for let's say team X, would you also take 200 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,839 Speaker 1: in consideration the strength of team X is defense and 201 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: and and and and punt there for that you know, 202 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: if you know, if it's punt of goal for two, 203 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: whatever the you know difference might be, and do you 204 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,680 Speaker 1: take that into consideration on how that impacts fuel position 205 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 1: and exactly, um, if you go for it and don't 206 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: make it, how likely is their defense to step in 207 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: and get to stop and you know, nullify whatever possible 208 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 1: disadvantage the offense might have of not making that, you know, 209 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 1: theoretical fourth down. Well, I'll start with the special teams components, 210 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 1: because that is that is a huge factor. And I 211 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: think if something that's lost, you know, it gets mentioned 212 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 1: all the time. I feel like in the sort of 213 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 1: intangible section of the pregame show, watch out for this team, 214 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: then got you know, they've got great not our pregame show, 215 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 1: not our pregames George. We talked about it all the time, 216 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: and we want to we want to incorporate that in 217 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: the most holistic way possible. So the nice thing about 218 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 1: PFF is that we you know, we grade every player 219 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: on every play, and that includes you know, the guys 220 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: on the special team's coverage unit, and and so when 221 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 1: we we bake all those things into the calculation. And 222 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 1: so you know, when we talk about you know, say, 223 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 1: for example, punting or going for it, when we try 224 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 1: and predict the outcome of the punt, we are using 225 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: all the metrics that you would use for a punter. 226 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 1: We're using all of the different aggregated opponent adjusted grading 227 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 1: for each of the coverage players. And we found that 228 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 1: to be incredibly useful. It's it's very successful. Actually, adding 229 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 1: a special teams component has helped us predict over unders 230 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 1: and totals for games UM much better than we would 231 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 1: be without it, So that that's a huge component of 232 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 1: the of the scenario. And then UM you know, to 233 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 1: to kind of speak to the whole strength of the 234 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:07,439 Speaker 1: team standpoint. If I'm you know, if I'm considering let's 235 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: say I'm an offensive team and I'm facing Tom Brady, 236 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,560 Speaker 1: that should come into my calculus, right, um, And that's 237 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 1: something you know, for example, the Jaguars in that in 238 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 1: that championship game, you know, deciding to kneel the ball 239 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: there at the end of the first half up four points, 240 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: up four points against Tom Brady on the road, at 241 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 1: least in my mind, is basically nothing. You're basically still 242 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:31,680 Speaker 1: down at that point, and the spread and our wind 243 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 1: probability would say the same thing. But it's so that 244 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 1: that has to come into the calculus of it, because 245 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: you know, ultimately you've got to beat your opponent, right, 246 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:41,959 Speaker 1: and so you've got to take them, all of them 247 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,080 Speaker 1: into consideration. Well, you know, we'll get off the subject 248 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 1: real quickly. I know we have a a lot more to 249 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 1: ask you about, but we look at a team like 250 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 1: the Rams. Okay, Johnny Heckert is by your hands down 251 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: the best punter in the NFL, but they also have 252 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,719 Speaker 1: a prolific offense. So I would imagine that sometimes in 253 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:58,839 Speaker 1: your analytics you gotta sit there and say, Okay, well, 254 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 1: you know, it all comes out of who we're playing. 255 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 1: Because if I'm the RAM and I have Johnny Hecker, 256 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 1: do I know could put the ball inside the five 257 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: ten yard lines every single time? However, I have an 258 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: offensive that can go down and score, and I also 259 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:11,320 Speaker 1: have a guy by the airline who can kick a 260 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 1: field goal. So that makes it very difficult for a 261 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 1: team like that. But it is to me, it all 262 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: depends on who you're playing and where the analyts coming 263 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:21,560 Speaker 1: at that point. Right, Yeah, that's a great that's a 264 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 1: great point. This would be a question that I would 265 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 1: actually ask you, guys from the team standpoint, do you 266 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 1: think that the kicker is actually a bigger determinant of 267 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,320 Speaker 1: going for it on fourth down maybe in some of 268 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 1: those areas than at least maybe that we would consider. 269 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 1: It's a good question. I think I think the field 270 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 1: goal kicker is like for a team like the Cowboys, 271 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 1: and I think this is probably a team that probably 272 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 1: bothers the analytics guy because I would imagine Jason Garrett 273 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 1: probably kicks field goals a lot more than he should 274 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:51,560 Speaker 1: because he has a guy like right, and but I 275 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,679 Speaker 1: think a guy like Dan Bailey probably says, well, look, 276 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 1: I'm guaranteeing myself, you know, theoretic, you know, most accurate kicker, 277 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 1: enough history, I'm quote unquote guarantee myself three points here. 278 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,439 Speaker 1: I'll take it. But for a situation, let's say for 279 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 1: the Giants last year who the first year kicker analogia 280 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:09,079 Speaker 1: who was a little inconsistent, they might be less likely 281 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 1: to go kick that field goal, you know what I mean, 282 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: because they're going to give up that field position because 283 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:15,560 Speaker 1: most likely he's a field goal kicker opposed to a 284 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 1: ninety right. So and again it all depends on who's 285 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 1: your And you know what, I remember, I played a 286 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 1: long time in the NFL, and I played on a 287 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 1: lot of crappy teams. But I played the reason I 288 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 1: I lasted so long in the league for playing for 289 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: crappy teams because teams did have really bad offenses. Need 290 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 1: a good punter and a good defense. And so that's 291 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 1: so that makes sense when it comes to that. So 292 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 1: with John scenario there, if I'm the Giants, I gotta 293 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 1: know that I'm gonna have to play some defense here 294 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: if we're gonna go for a field goal and miss it. Um, 295 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: I guess it depends on which which where you have 296 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 1: more faith in your offense or your defense going into 297 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 1: that type of situation. So we're gonna move on from that. Sorry, 298 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 1: sorry to get into special team stuff so much that 299 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:58,359 Speaker 1: that's why you're here. It's a great topic. And you 300 00:14:58,400 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: know you played on a couple of good teams to 301 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: Oh no, I absolutely did that. Oh seven team was 302 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 1: pretty darn good, and a couple of those Eagles teams 303 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 1: are really good too. Yeah. Absolutely, there's a couple of 304 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 1: if we could just yeah, yeah, yeah, the nine two 305 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: team pretty much. I think it was Team Parch that 306 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 1: was number one across the board defensively against the run 307 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 1: path and overall defense. I remember that. It's distinctly. I 308 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: don't know how many times that's happened. That still right, Yeah, 309 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 1: but that was they were at the end of the year. 310 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: They were number one across the board defensively. I just 311 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: our offense couldn't do anything, George. Before I start digging 312 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 1: into a lot of some of the specifics on offense 313 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 1: and defense here, just a larger holistic question for these 314 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 1: types of UM expected points added calculations. Is this something 315 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: that if a team wanted to heading into a game, 316 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 1: they could build a formula and have a coach in 317 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: the booth run these sort of scenarios um real time, 318 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 1: so they have some additional data that would help assist 319 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 1: the coach and make these decisions, which sometimes had to 320 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 1: be made within seconds depending on what the situation of 321 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: the game is. I think they do that already, I 322 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: really do. Well, I'm looking at I'm checking the year 323 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 1: here it's and you would think this would be this 324 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: would be automatic, right, I mean you've got you know, 325 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: five year old kids using phones all over the place. 326 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 1: But UM, to my understanding, you can't have that live 327 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 1: technology in in the booth um. So what you have 328 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 1: to do is actually kind of role play before the game, 329 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 1: So you have to kind of go into it with UM. 330 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 1: You know, here are sort of the parameters for where 331 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 1: I would consider going for it um. Which is a 332 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 1: little disheartening because of, you know, this is a league 333 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: that generates you know, all this money. It's you know, 334 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 1: kind of the pinnacle of success in a lot of ways, 335 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: and we're not leveraging maybe you know the world's greatest 336 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 1: you know sort of continuing achievement, which is all the 337 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: you know, computing power and technology that we have I 338 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 1: will tell you this. We um, you know, on our 339 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 1: own side of things, have built a decision making app 340 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: that we can use in real time. So while the 341 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: coaches might not be using it in real time, UM, 342 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 1: I can use it in real time and I can 343 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,480 Speaker 1: make you know, as basically called on whether to go 344 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:19,400 Speaker 1: for it or not. Um, you know, within about ten 345 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 1: seconds of Do you actually do that and just play 346 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 1: around with it and see how accurate it is? Oh? Yeah, 347 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 1: uh and I did that. We we got it built 348 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,560 Speaker 1: um right before the Super Bowl last year. And so 349 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: that was a fun thing to con used during the 350 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: Super Bowl because I mean we all know that that 351 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 1: that game really came down to, you know, maybe three 352 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 1: huge decisions on fourth down out of curiosity, did you guys, 353 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 1: based on your formulas and and the math, you guys, 354 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:53,159 Speaker 1: did did Peterson make the right calls in those spots 355 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,920 Speaker 1: being super aggressive or did you think he maybe should 356 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 1: have been more conservative? You know, it wasn't even it 357 00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: was even close. I mean, the bold situations was so overwhelming. 358 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: And you know it's funny going back, you know, so 359 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: to start with the Philly Special, they're, um, you know, 360 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,400 Speaker 1: they're at the one yard line, you're you're the Eagles. 361 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,119 Speaker 1: You have probably the best offense top to bottom. Now 362 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 1: I know you're missing your quarterback, that you've got a 363 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: great offensive line, it's great skill position players, and you 364 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 1: had two weeks to prepare. So not even taking into 365 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 1: account the fact that you've got this trick play that 366 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: you feel great about, you know, you've got a pep 367 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,719 Speaker 1: confidence just to game one yard and so you know, 368 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 1: our our probability of them picking up the one yard 369 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 1: was in their favor. And then the wind probability considering 370 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 1: you know, if you go for it versus if you kick, 371 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 1: overwhelmingly stated that they should have gone for it. Um, 372 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 1: it was about a net of eleven probability when probability 373 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 1: points going for it. So that one was was a 374 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:53,879 Speaker 1: no brainer. And then the one of them in the 375 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 1: fourth quarter was interesting. You know, watching the game, I 376 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:01,919 Speaker 1: noticed when the Patriots often on that third down, there 377 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: are a couple of players I can't remember who and 378 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 1: I won't name them, but it sort of started celebrating, 379 00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:09,120 Speaker 1: and from my vantage point, I was I was like, wow, 380 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,120 Speaker 1: you should you better stop. It's fourth and one. They 381 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,920 Speaker 1: have to go for this, and uh, you know, when 382 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: you think about and you kind of break it down. 383 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 1: Were they to punt in that situation, their defense still tired. 384 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:23,360 Speaker 1: Brady hasn't been stopped ever in this game. And all 385 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 1: you're really making Tom Brady do is take more time 386 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 1: off the clock probably eventually score. So you know, if 387 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,119 Speaker 1: you punt it there, the game is over. If you 388 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 1: turn it over there, the game is over. It's the same. 389 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 1: It's the same situation where you punter, turn it over 390 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 1: and again it's one yard. You know. Awesome. Um, another 391 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:44,760 Speaker 1: more of a bigger picture thing, But I think it's 392 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 1: going back to my second question. How much And this 393 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: is even putting expected points aside. This is more just 394 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,360 Speaker 1: a percent chance of conversion. I guess it depends team 395 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 1: to team, but in general, across the league, how much 396 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: more likely is a team, say, likely to convert a 397 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,440 Speaker 1: third in eight or third and nine versus a third 398 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,160 Speaker 1: and two or in third and three. Because I think 399 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,479 Speaker 1: from the team side, the impression is you're looking at 400 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 1: a you know, probably a good difference in terms of 401 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:16,680 Speaker 1: ability to convert those two downs. How quickly is it exponential? 402 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 1: Is it linear? Does your percent of chance of converting 403 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:22,680 Speaker 1: go from as you go from third and ten down 404 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 1: the third and one. That's a great question. Um, I 405 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,159 Speaker 1: would you know, not having that exactly in front of me, 406 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:34,119 Speaker 1: I would guess that it's probably a you know, twenty 407 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: five plus percent difference. Um, And that depends obviously on 408 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 1: on the quarterback. I think a great deal. But um, 409 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,639 Speaker 1: you know, converting a third and eight, I mean, you 410 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: know that's you go into a certain eight, you feel horrible, Right, 411 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 1: you're go into a certain two, You've at least got 412 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,360 Speaker 1: you've got the whole playbook at your disposal. I think 413 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: that's a huge key as well. Um. You know, you 414 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 1: look at a team like the Cowboys were sort of 415 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 1: an outlier, but a great example this last year where 416 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: you know, whether it be because of Zeke or because 417 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 1: their offensive line sort of fell apart at the same 418 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: time that he went out, they had this issue where 419 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: their third downs just started getting longer and longer, and 420 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,840 Speaker 1: you put Dak in more situations where the playbook got 421 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 1: smaller and smaller and smaller, and you know, that was 422 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 1: a big issue for them from sixteen to seventeen, just 423 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 1: their ability to convert those third downs went down. Oh back, 424 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 1: you look at sixteen, their third downs were third and one, 425 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 1: third and two. Uh, you know, the first down, then 426 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: the second down they get another first down. That running game, 427 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:35,879 Speaker 1: which I'm sure John's gonna ask you a couple of 428 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:39,159 Speaker 1: questions about the running game, because really, when the analytics 429 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: come out about the running game and situations, this is 430 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 1: where you start to think about your offense and how 431 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,359 Speaker 1: then how the passing game. Everybody's you know, it's a 432 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 1: passing league, but I don't know. The NFC East is 433 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 1: starting to look a little bit like the old NFCS. 434 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,400 Speaker 1: In my opinion, the running game is starting to come back, 435 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 1: and I'm gonna see it this year. You look at 436 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 1: the running backs that are gonna be in this division 437 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,320 Speaker 1: this year, all high draft picks. You have guys, guys, 438 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 1: um guys right in Washington. You've got some quon Barkley's 439 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:09,200 Speaker 1: you got Zeke. There you go. So let's talk a 440 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 1: little bit about the running game, and John will tee 441 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: you up with these questions. He's got a book department 442 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 1: about over here. Ye see, George, And I think here's 443 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 1: the thing. We had a conversation going into the draft, 444 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 1: multiple with a million different people value of the running back. 445 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 1: So let's start first here. More important to a successful 446 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 1: running game, good offensive line, good running back, or is 447 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,880 Speaker 1: it a fifty fifty split. Yeah, I mean that's that's 448 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 1: the question right hard because if if it's your if 449 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 1: it's your running back and he's the determined of the 450 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,200 Speaker 1: running game, I think he gets a little bit more value. 451 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,959 Speaker 1: And what we've seen from a play by play predictive standpoint, 452 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:47,439 Speaker 1: you know what I mean by that is trying to 453 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:49,719 Speaker 1: predict yards per carry on a play by play basis, 454 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:54,360 Speaker 1: the performance of the run blocking unit offensive blinding. Run 455 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 1: blocking is more predictive of your run success than the 456 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,200 Speaker 1: formants of your running back. And the thing that the 457 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: reason we're able to do that is, look, we've got 458 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,119 Speaker 1: you know, we're grading you know, these players on a 459 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 1: play by play basis, and you know, while some people 460 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 1: might disagree with you, every one off grade here or 461 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,600 Speaker 1: there needs get checked by the Pro Coaches Network over 462 00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 1: and over again, and so we feel pretty confident. And 463 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 1: they test out mathematically to be pretty darn good as 464 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:24,879 Speaker 1: far as projecting two wins and being stable season to season. 465 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 1: So we feel pretty confident in the way that we 466 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: are grading the run blocking game and the fact that 467 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 1: it then shows up to be more predictive of run 468 00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 1: success than the running back really sort of it makes 469 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 1: you think a little bit because I think that the 470 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 1: sort of hidden component to that is, well, if the 471 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 1: run blocking game is so important to running and I 472 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 1: am running my offensive line, but I'm also improving my 473 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:52,480 Speaker 1: pass blocking probably too, if I'm putting better offensive linemen 474 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:54,119 Speaker 1: in there, and we know that that can have a 475 00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,159 Speaker 1: huge impact as well. Well, George, how how much more 476 00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,280 Speaker 1: predictive is it? Like, let's say, for ex ample, and 477 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 1: I know you guys don't have pro numbers on how 478 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 1: about this? You mentioned the Cowboys before. How much of 479 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 1: a difference for them was going from Ezekiel Elliott to 480 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 1: Alfred Morris? Was it a huge drop off? Or did 481 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: the offensive line play poorly to becaus tyrants Fith wasn't there. 482 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:19,679 Speaker 1: I think that might be a good example to show 483 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,680 Speaker 1: the impact of a downgraded running back skill, which no 484 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,119 Speaker 1: one would argue. Elliott to Morris is a downgrade, but 485 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 1: you're still have a pretty good offensive line. So what's 486 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 1: the difference there? I mean, like, how how much lack 487 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: of predictive power does the quality of the running back have? 488 00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:40,240 Speaker 1: You know? The So to answer your first question, it's 489 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,359 Speaker 1: not an entire order of magnitude. It's not like two 490 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 1: times more important, but it's a good one and a 491 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 1: half times more more important. And that's you know, on 492 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,439 Speaker 1: a in a on a play type that is just 493 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,919 Speaker 1: less valuable to begin with two write Um, but you know, 494 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,719 Speaker 1: I mean you think about before Zeke Elliot showed up 495 00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,919 Speaker 1: like Darren McFadden was pretty darn good. I'm that offensive lot. 496 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:07,679 Speaker 1: So you know, I think really the value that running 497 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 1: backs and I think this will speak to probably what 498 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 1: you guys have been talking about for a while. Here 499 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 1: is is what sake Klon Barkley brings, which is the 500 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,360 Speaker 1: value of the running back position is now coming from 501 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,800 Speaker 1: their ability to be a receiver. UM. And I think 502 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 1: you whether you look at Alvin Kamara, who, according to 503 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,199 Speaker 1: our numbers and in terms of winds above replacement, was 504 00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 1: the most valuable running back season that we've seen since ten, um, 505 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,679 Speaker 1: you know, or you look at Todd Gurley, who you know, 506 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,400 Speaker 1: with Jeff Fisher was averaging four point one yards per 507 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,199 Speaker 1: screen target and then one year later with Sean McVeigh 508 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:44,159 Speaker 1: is averaging fifteen point one yards per screen target. Um. 509 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 1: You know, I mean the games that these guys are making, 510 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 1: Todd Gurley didn't all of a sudden become you know, 511 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:53,160 Speaker 1: way better ask in one year, right, Um, so much 512 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 1: of this and you know, Sean Sean Payton. Maybe it's 513 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 1: the thing with Shawn, but Sean Payton is a tremendous 514 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:00,879 Speaker 1: you know, play caller, Tennis, played signer as well, and 515 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 1: so you know, if you get a running back who 516 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,480 Speaker 1: you can put in space, all of a sudden, their 517 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,200 Speaker 1: value is translated to the receiving side of things, where 518 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 1: there's just more value to be had to begin with. Well, 519 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,679 Speaker 1: I think that you are correct in the sense that 520 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 1: we have talked about Sequon Barkley and not only his 521 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 1: running ability and the way he can can you know, 522 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 1: he can run the football, but really a good asset 523 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 1: that he's going to give this team is that is 524 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,679 Speaker 1: and and with Sherman running it up in in Minnesota 525 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,400 Speaker 1: with throwing the ball to him in the backfield, gonna 526 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 1: have a lot of great plays. We are excited about that. 527 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:33,640 Speaker 1: And I'll tell you what a lot of the fans are. Um, 528 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 1: you know, they're they're just they're chomping at the bit 529 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 1: for the season to start. And John and I were 530 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 1: talking to other day, We're gonna you know, are they 531 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:40,879 Speaker 1: just gonna run him into the ground. We hope that, 532 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 1: you know, they kind of ease him these things into him. 533 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,520 Speaker 1: But um, you look at someone like the Saints. Okay, 534 00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 1: so that from that running back position, you you you 535 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:51,879 Speaker 1: meant um um helped me with his name. I'm sorry 536 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 1: they're running back from the Saints. Comara. That guy comes 537 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,200 Speaker 1: out of nowhere. I mean, obviously they knew what he 538 00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 1: could do, but I mean that type of offense that 539 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,160 Speaker 1: Sean Payton puts it there with him, is that something 540 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:02,919 Speaker 1: you see that the Giants would be able to do 541 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:07,680 Speaker 1: with the Klan Barkley. Well, that's a that's a great question, right, 542 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,719 Speaker 1: because Alvin Kamara was the third round pick, right, it 543 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 1: wasn't he came out of nowhere? Did he come out 544 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 1: of nowhere? Because people, you know, just totally slept on 545 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 1: his athletic ability maybe a little bit, but scheme is 546 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,320 Speaker 1: such an important component of that. And the Saints have 547 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,440 Speaker 1: so many other weapons. Right, You're worried about Drew Brees, 548 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,680 Speaker 1: You're worried about Michael Thomas. Was the most valuable wide 549 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,639 Speaker 1: receiver according to the PFF war last season. So you 550 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,080 Speaker 1: get kind of all those different weapons and you then 551 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 1: add one more guy and you're able to put him 552 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 1: in space. You know, a guy like Alvin Kamara, who 553 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:42,680 Speaker 1: was a third round pick and have tremendous success, now 554 00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 1: can take Kwon Barkley have that same success. He's certainly 555 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,280 Speaker 1: you know, Chaklon Barkley might be the best athlete we've 556 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,480 Speaker 1: ever seen. I mean, I can't. The guy is incredible, right, 557 00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 1: But it's all about putting him in a position because 558 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 1: you know, the running back is at a disadvantage. It's 559 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,320 Speaker 1: it's not like a bash on running backs that the 560 00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 1: ball is less advantageous to the offense. The running back 561 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,440 Speaker 1: gets the ball five yards behind the line of scrimmage, right, 562 00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,560 Speaker 1: There's a huge difference between that and a receiver who 563 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 1: targeted eight ten yards down field, you know, So there's 564 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,919 Speaker 1: no and in the passing game, it's sort of the same, right, 565 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 1: the running back is not targeted that far downfield. A 566 00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,640 Speaker 1: lot of the times their most impressive plays are breaking 567 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,200 Speaker 1: a tackle at or behind the line of scrimmage. They 568 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,000 Speaker 1: make games three yards and it's an impressive play, right, 569 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,040 Speaker 1: whereas a run of the mill passing play gets you 570 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 1: seven yards. Um. So you know, I think it really 571 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 1: comes down to you know, how good is their their 572 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,920 Speaker 1: passing game around him? Is Odell Beckham healthy? Is Eli 573 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 1: Manning able to make teams pay you know if they 574 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 1: try and kind of attack see Klon Barkley and that 575 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,960 Speaker 1: will open up space form. Yeah, these and Evan Ingram 576 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 1: to throw him in there. That's That's kind of where 577 00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 1: I was going with, Like I look at the Saints 578 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,120 Speaker 1: and how powerful they are on offense. I'm trying to compare, 579 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,240 Speaker 1: you know, what the Giants could be on paper this year, 580 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 1: coming into it with someone like Quon Barkley, you know, George, 581 00:28:57,880 --> 00:28:59,240 Speaker 1: and I want to go back to two things you 582 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 1: said before, and this is a target I wanted to 583 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 1: hit next, where running plays, by their nature, um are 584 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,479 Speaker 1: less valuable than passing plays and less important. But at 585 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: the same time, about ten minutes ago, you talked about 586 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 1: how a third and two or a third and three 587 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,840 Speaker 1: is much easier to convert than say a third and eight. 588 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 1: So I guess how do you square those two things? 589 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 1: But I think most people think, well, you're running on 590 00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:23,120 Speaker 1: first and second down the average four yards to carry. 591 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 1: Look at the third and three. If you throw a 592 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 1: couple of in complete passes, you're you know, staring a 593 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:29,960 Speaker 1: third and ten, and obviously third and three is a 594 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 1: much easier down to convert on than a third and 595 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 1: ten or a third and eight or something like that. 596 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 1: So how do you guys square those two things with 597 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 1: the fact that passing plays have such a higher inherent 598 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:46,800 Speaker 1: value than a running play. Yeah, that's a good question. 599 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 1: So the first thing I would say is, if you're 600 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 1: playing for third down, you're gonna lose football. That's a 601 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:57,600 Speaker 1: good point with the absolutely the teams. The team that 602 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 1: that had the highest rate of first down on first 603 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 1: and second down, that was the Patriots, the second were 604 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,320 Speaker 1: the Saints. So you know, I think that is a 605 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 1: huge components of things. If your goal is to get 606 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 1: into third and manageable, you're going to march down the 607 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,720 Speaker 1: field and you'll have three successful series and you'll still 608 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 1: be at the you know, at the forty yard line, right, Um, 609 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 1: So you've got to be able to sort of I 610 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 1: think think ahead of that, um to start with. And 611 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,280 Speaker 1: then so so I think that's the first thing. Getting 612 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 1: into third and short is still not necessarily great. Um. 613 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,320 Speaker 1: And I think running on second and long is actually 614 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 1: one of the big big issues that we see from 615 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 1: sort of a decision making standpoint, While runs are a 616 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 1: negative e P a play, what I mean by that is, 617 00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 1: on average, a running play is hurting your chances of 618 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:49,800 Speaker 1: scoring on that drive. Running in certain situations is worse 619 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 1: than it is in other situations. So what maybe a 620 00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:55,360 Speaker 1: run on third and one isn't isn't that terrible? But 621 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,640 Speaker 1: if you run on second and ten or something like that, 622 00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,560 Speaker 1: it becomes far more negative. And so I think it 623 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,920 Speaker 1: really comes down to picking your picking your spots before 624 00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 1: you get to third down, right, and actually making sure 625 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 1: that you're taking advantage of you know, maybe it is 626 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 1: that the defense really overplays the past and you are 627 00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:15,280 Speaker 1: able to pick up a nice chunk of six yards 628 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,800 Speaker 1: on first down, um, But then it's your decision on 629 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 1: second down to make sure that you're trying to pick 630 00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,960 Speaker 1: up that that first down before it You know, I 631 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,840 Speaker 1: looked at this just a couple of days ago. Was 632 00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 1: you know, what is completion percentage? Like when you're targeting 633 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:30,360 Speaker 1: you know that that line to gain at the sticks 634 00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:32,960 Speaker 1: because we know that's a really important demarcation. It really 635 00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:36,040 Speaker 1: impacts the value of play on passing place. For example, 636 00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,720 Speaker 1: when you target sticks and if you target that area 637 00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,840 Speaker 1: by the sticks. Within three yards of the sticks on 638 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,040 Speaker 1: first and second down, your completion percentage is almost five 639 00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 1: percentage points better than if you target that same area 640 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 1: on third down. And that's even taking I'm not even 641 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 1: taking an account the fact that first second down generally 642 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:57,320 Speaker 1: are further away. Also, you also on third down you 643 00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,080 Speaker 1: only have one more left on first down, you know 644 00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,120 Speaker 1: you have two more place to get to those sticks. Right, 645 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:05,200 Speaker 1: basically what you're saying, and the defense knows that, Yeah, exactly, 646 00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:09,680 Speaker 1: cushion and yep, yep, you know the other thing too, 647 00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:13,200 Speaker 1: and Georgia about I'm sorry to interrupt, but go along 648 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:15,640 Speaker 1: with this too. On those situations of third and two 649 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,520 Speaker 1: and what John was talking about. It also dictates when 650 00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 1: you're going into your game plan and about the defense 651 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:23,400 Speaker 1: and what some of their tendencies are on those downs. 652 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:25,480 Speaker 1: You know, are they good against third and two and 653 00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,680 Speaker 1: they're horrible against third and eights. That's going to totally 654 00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 1: dictate what you're gonna do, run or past the football. 655 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:33,960 Speaker 1: You're totally right. And so the first thing I would 656 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:37,040 Speaker 1: say is, look, if I want to make sure that 657 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,680 Speaker 1: if I happen to be in a third down, it's 658 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,160 Speaker 1: at least the shortest third down, I can be in, well, 659 00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,360 Speaker 1: then you better be passing the ball at some point, 660 00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:48,520 Speaker 1: right because passing is just it's gonna on average, get 661 00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:50,800 Speaker 1: you closer to the line to game. But once you 662 00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:54,120 Speaker 1: get into that third and short. Let's let's say, for example, 663 00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 1: it's third and two, you can trot out a heavy set. 664 00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 1: You know, maybe you have two wide receivers, two tight 665 00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:01,760 Speaker 1: ends out there, and the defense all of a sudden 666 00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:06,240 Speaker 1: brings on their three linebackers who can't cover me. Okay, 667 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,760 Speaker 1: and now all of a sudden, you've got you know, 668 00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 1: you've got Evan Ingram running against the guy that's out 669 00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:13,920 Speaker 1: there trying to stop the run. That's easy money. And 670 00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,719 Speaker 1: I think it's that's something that we've seen over and 671 00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:20,120 Speaker 1: over again. Um. You know, I remember that Matt Ryan 672 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 1: season in with with Kyle Shannon. They absolutely obliterated teams 673 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,640 Speaker 1: from heavy sets. I mean it was. It was disgusting. 674 00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:30,360 Speaker 1: I want to say it's pass rating with something like 675 00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:33,840 Speaker 1: one thirty six out of those heavy sets. I mean 676 00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,280 Speaker 1: it was. It was really ridiculous. And if you look 677 00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,000 Speaker 1: at it just on a league wide level, if you 678 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,920 Speaker 1: are throwing with two or less wide receivers on average, 679 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,120 Speaker 1: you're facing one less defensive back and your e p 680 00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:49,720 Speaker 1: A is almost five times better. So you're adding almost 681 00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:53,600 Speaker 1: five times more to your expected points total than if 682 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,520 Speaker 1: you're throwing out of you know, three plus wide receiver sets. 683 00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:01,760 Speaker 1: The ability glad I'm gonna finish up mypole, just I 684 00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:05,280 Speaker 1: was gonna say, the ability to have that multiplicity in 685 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,120 Speaker 1: your offense is huge, and so I think that's where 686 00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,520 Speaker 1: you know, being able to play against the defense and 687 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,319 Speaker 1: what their tendencies are is tremendous. But George, doesn't that 688 00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,480 Speaker 1: also then make it important to run the ball, because 689 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:20,360 Speaker 1: if you don't have a threat to run, you're constantly 690 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:24,040 Speaker 1: gonna be seeing sub package nickel don You're not gonna 691 00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:27,400 Speaker 1: get those linebackers on the field. So while running plays 692 00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:30,160 Speaker 1: do have on average that you said, uh a negative 693 00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 1: e p A and past plays are going to be 694 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:36,680 Speaker 1: more valuable in general, don't teams have to make the 695 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:40,319 Speaker 1: defense believe they're going to run it and run it 696 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:46,120 Speaker 1: often to get those types of advantageous matchups you're talking about, Because, 697 00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:49,440 Speaker 1: as you just said, defensive personnel has a huge impact 698 00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,400 Speaker 1: on whether or not a play is successful. But to 699 00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,560 Speaker 1: get those matchup and personnel packages you want from a 700 00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,960 Speaker 1: defense on the field. As an offense, don't you have 701 00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:59,640 Speaker 1: to make them believe that you can run the ball successfully? 702 00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,120 Speaker 1: So isn't they're kind of a balance you have to strike, 703 00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,920 Speaker 1: you know, you would think, and I And it turns 704 00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,960 Speaker 1: out that your success running the ball the amount of 705 00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:14,080 Speaker 1: times you run the ball, even if you look at it, um, 706 00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,400 Speaker 1: you know, say on like the previous five plays, of 707 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:18,920 Speaker 1: the previous ten plays, and there's a guy named Ben 708 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 1: Baldwin who's who's done a lot of work on this front, 709 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:25,440 Speaker 1: and we've corroborated at every at every point, it doesn't 710 00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:29,239 Speaker 1: actually impact your success passing, even if you look at 711 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,440 Speaker 1: play action passing for example, UM, And I think the 712 00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:36,760 Speaker 1: reason that is is that defenses are going are still 713 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,840 Speaker 1: in the mindset where we have to be prepared for 714 00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:41,680 Speaker 1: the run if it's a third and one, if it's 715 00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,319 Speaker 1: a third and two, even if you're not a great 716 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,400 Speaker 1: running team, picking up two yards is still you know, 717 00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,839 Speaker 1: that's that's that's not that impressive, right, And I think 718 00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:54,399 Speaker 1: there's something to the the humiliation factor of getting run 719 00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:58,480 Speaker 1: on defenses. You know, I'm trying to think of, you know, 720 00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,359 Speaker 1: sort of sociological reasons why this is the case, sure, 721 00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,719 Speaker 1: it's from my standpoint, it doesn't make sense to me, 722 00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:07,799 Speaker 1: you know, from my defensive philosophy would be I am 723 00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:11,839 Speaker 1: always assuming pass. I'm I'm not falling for any play 724 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,120 Speaker 1: actions fake. If they pick up four yards on me 725 00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,440 Speaker 1: in the run game, that's fine, but I'm going to 726 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,720 Speaker 1: make sure that I'm never giving up that big pass play. 727 00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,640 Speaker 1: And then I'm getting guys who are athletic enough that, look, 728 00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:24,160 Speaker 1: if it ends up being a run, they're gonna be 729 00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,320 Speaker 1: able to get to the boundary and stop it. So basically, 730 00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:28,080 Speaker 1: you would play every team the way teams played the 731 00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:32,040 Speaker 1: Giants last year when they couldn't run the play. Um, 732 00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,920 Speaker 1: so one more teams are doing more of that. Teams 733 00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:40,719 Speaker 1: are playing you know five defensive. They're absolutely I mean 734 00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:44,279 Speaker 1: this this defense that James Betcher, they're a nickel quite 735 00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:47,280 Speaker 1: a bit down. That's the way the game is played today. 736 00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:49,799 Speaker 1: So I guess, George, I think that's a pretty good 737 00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,920 Speaker 1: segue them to the passing game and the way I've 738 00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 1: seen the league the last three or four years to me, 739 00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:58,680 Speaker 1: and I'd love to see if your numbers back this up. 740 00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,600 Speaker 1: To me, big plays are essential. If you don't make 741 00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,120 Speaker 1: big plays in this league. As an offense, you're gonna 742 00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:06,480 Speaker 1: have trouble scoring a lot of points because, as you mentioned, 743 00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:10,360 Speaker 1: sustaining drives is difficult and it's hard. Um, how much 744 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,560 Speaker 1: is success for offense is now predicated on the ability 745 00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:18,120 Speaker 1: to convert big place. Yeah, that's a great point, right, um, 746 00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:21,239 Speaker 1: And I think that's that's where scheme and offensive you know, 747 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,799 Speaker 1: genius sort of on your side is a huge thing. 748 00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:25,960 Speaker 1: Look at what happened to the ramps this past here, 749 00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:37,040 Speaker 1: um and identified Georgia people know. I'm glad we I'm 750 00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,319 Speaker 1: glad we picked the same number. I was worried that 751 00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,600 Speaker 1: I would have looked up like, you know, five yards off. 752 00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:44,120 Speaker 1: But there's a couple of ways that I looked at it. 753 00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:46,880 Speaker 1: You know, if you gain you know, twenty plus yards 754 00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,200 Speaker 1: at least once in a in a possession or in 755 00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:53,720 Speaker 1: a drive, your touchdown percentage is about over three times 756 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,680 Speaker 1: that of what it would be if you don't just 757 00:37:56,880 --> 00:38:03,000 Speaker 1: want to play okay, And there's another So that's huge, right, 758 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:06,080 Speaker 1: Obviously picking up big chunks it is tremendously helpful. And 759 00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:09,040 Speaker 1: then looking at it from you know, the passing standpoint, 760 00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:12,160 Speaker 1: because ultimately, if you're talking about twenty yard games, and 761 00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,359 Speaker 1: you know you're going to be relying on the path 762 00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:17,040 Speaker 1: to pick up the majority of those. When we look 763 00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,440 Speaker 1: at from a quarterback standpoint, when they make what we 764 00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,880 Speaker 1: call a big time throw, and these are throws that 765 00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:25,960 Speaker 1: are just special throws, they earn our highest level of grade. 766 00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:28,600 Speaker 1: It's about five per cent or so of throws. If 767 00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:31,239 Speaker 1: you have one of those on a drive, you're it's 768 00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:34,360 Speaker 1: actually more indicative of a of a touchdown. It's about 769 00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:38,480 Speaker 1: thirty nine um of those drives end up with a touchdown. 770 00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:40,879 Speaker 1: So you're you're right on right. You want to have 771 00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,879 Speaker 1: a quarterback. It is a valuable thing obviously to hit 772 00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,959 Speaker 1: the expected throw right, to hit the guy that's open 773 00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:50,880 Speaker 1: at something that's valuable and consistent. But there is extra 774 00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,000 Speaker 1: level of value to have a guy who can make 775 00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:55,239 Speaker 1: you know, the special throw down the field and and 776 00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,480 Speaker 1: that goes into air yards right, So I guess the 777 00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,719 Speaker 1: quarterback that makes more throws the ball in the air 778 00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:02,560 Speaker 1: twenty plus yards is going to be a lot more 779 00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:04,560 Speaker 1: valuable to an offense. The guy that get a eat 780 00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:06,400 Speaker 1: yard slant, and then the wide receiver does all the 781 00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:11,520 Speaker 1: work right right, look targeting, um, you know, and I 782 00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:13,240 Speaker 1: like to think of it as sort of the line 783 00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:15,960 Speaker 1: to game right as a good barometer from where guys 784 00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:20,239 Speaker 1: are are continually throwing the ball. There's about you know, 785 00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:23,399 Speaker 1: it's about three times more valuable to throw the ball 786 00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,160 Speaker 1: to a guy that's been two yards of the line 787 00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,040 Speaker 1: to game compared to three yards are more short. Um. 788 00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:30,800 Speaker 1: So I just that ability to push the ball closer 789 00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:35,120 Speaker 1: and closer to the boundary is tremendously valuable. And um, 790 00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,759 Speaker 1: you know, I think that's why you see a guy 791 00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:39,920 Speaker 1: like Tom Brady. You know he is he is one 792 00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:41,879 Speaker 1: of the leaders year and year out over the past 793 00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,640 Speaker 1: four years at percentage of throws out of path to 794 00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:47,279 Speaker 1: six and he does that. What's sort of incredible about 795 00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,520 Speaker 1: Tom Brady is we we do a ball location charting 796 00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,040 Speaker 1: where we look at sort of when does the guy 797 00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:56,280 Speaker 1: throw to his second or third look, And Tom Brady 798 00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:58,880 Speaker 1: is continually the leader and throwing out of path the 799 00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,000 Speaker 1: stick on his second looks. So even if he doesn't 800 00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,480 Speaker 1: find his primary guy just when he looked to his 801 00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,240 Speaker 1: second guy, he's still pushing the ball down the field. 802 00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,319 Speaker 1: And you know, first downs are so valuable. If you 803 00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:12,040 Speaker 1: can pick those up quickly as opposed to grinding it out, 804 00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:14,560 Speaker 1: you're just gonna be that much more successful. Are you 805 00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:17,680 Speaker 1: guys at all able to calculate the impact of a 806 00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:22,080 Speaker 1: quarterback's pre snap reads, adjustments and things like that are 807 00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:24,000 Speaker 1: still something or is that something you guys are trying 808 00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:27,600 Speaker 1: to figure out. Yeah, that's a great that's a great 809 00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:30,560 Speaker 1: thing that you know, we get asked that a good bit. Um, 810 00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:32,520 Speaker 1: you know, my boss Chris Collins or if that's something 811 00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:34,839 Speaker 1: that he's really interested in. And when we looked at 812 00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,560 Speaker 1: some stuff with motion, uh you know last year for 813 00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:40,600 Speaker 1: some of the NBC broadcast, and I think it's something 814 00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:44,719 Speaker 1: that is it's not something that we're doing a tremendously 815 00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:50,359 Speaker 1: great job of capturing explicitly. I think it's an implicit thing. Right. 816 00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,799 Speaker 1: A guy that is noticing the blitz right is going 817 00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,680 Speaker 1: to do better against the blitz after the blitz comes. Right. 818 00:40:57,040 --> 00:41:00,280 Speaker 1: A guy that is like Tom Brady identifying the wes 819 00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:04,000 Speaker 1: he's prepared. He knows which guy on defense can't cover 820 00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:06,880 Speaker 1: his his uh, you know, his running back out of 821 00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,000 Speaker 1: the backfield or when he motions them in the spot, 822 00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:12,040 Speaker 1: he's going to get that coverage. I think that shows up, 823 00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,200 Speaker 1: um in you know, the grading of the quarterback and 824 00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:18,520 Speaker 1: in just the overall offensive efficiency. You know that that 825 00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:21,400 Speaker 1: team has expected points out of her play. UM, so 826 00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,160 Speaker 1: I think it is baked in, but certainly you know 827 00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:27,600 Speaker 1: that that is a really interesting, uh you know component 828 00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:29,319 Speaker 1: and one that I think we can always get better 829 00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:33,680 Speaker 1: at at, you know, figuring out in general from a 830 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,919 Speaker 1: scheme perspective, and you can talk both offense and defense here. 831 00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:40,440 Speaker 1: Have you guys been able to figure out metrics where 832 00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:44,520 Speaker 1: you know, one type of scheme is more effective than 833 00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:48,759 Speaker 1: another overall or in a specific um thing you're trying 834 00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:52,239 Speaker 1: to accomplish, you know, even run scheme, zone, zone blocking, scheme, 835 00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:54,600 Speaker 1: man blocking schemes. Are you guys able to to get 836 00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:57,640 Speaker 1: it to that type of level where you can judge 837 00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:01,520 Speaker 1: success based on scheme or is it really dependent on 838 00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:06,359 Speaker 1: the players and the scheme is in material? Yeah, that's 839 00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:09,840 Speaker 1: a good question. Um. We have done more work, certainly 840 00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:11,799 Speaker 1: with the passing into the running game as you may 841 00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:15,200 Speaker 1: have have induced by the deduced by what I've been 842 00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:19,000 Speaker 1: talking about. Um, but you know, from a mathematical standpoint. 843 00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:20,520 Speaker 1: So there's a question we get all the time. Right, 844 00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:23,360 Speaker 1: It's like, okay, if this team comes out in twelve 845 00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:26,759 Speaker 1: personnel and they've got you know, imbalanced line and the 846 00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,279 Speaker 1: defense have this personnel out like what's you know, what's 847 00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:34,120 Speaker 1: my success rate? And from a predictive standpoint, it's it's 848 00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:38,440 Speaker 1: really hard to say anything with certainty because the sample 849 00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:41,759 Speaker 1: size is so small and the difference in player. You know, 850 00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:43,920 Speaker 1: you have to you want to adjust for obviously the 851 00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:46,799 Speaker 1: skill of the players on the field, and by that 852 00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:50,280 Speaker 1: point you've whittled things down to where it's it's harder 853 00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:53,160 Speaker 1: to say something. So I think there is I think 854 00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:56,960 Speaker 1: that certainly plays a role. Um. From a mathematical standpoint, 855 00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:00,160 Speaker 1: how well can we, you know, really characterize it, I 856 00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:03,759 Speaker 1: think not that not that well yet, Um. And I 857 00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,040 Speaker 1: think what I would lean towards is what you said 858 00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,680 Speaker 1: is that, look, if I put good football players on 859 00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:13,640 Speaker 1: the field, and I have the ability to adjust, you know, 860 00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,360 Speaker 1: my defense or my offense based on what I see, 861 00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:18,719 Speaker 1: that's what's going to give me the biggest advantage. I 862 00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:22,920 Speaker 1: continually think about what the Patriots do, both offensively and defensively. 863 00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,080 Speaker 1: They're a new team every time they step out there, 864 00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:28,040 Speaker 1: and that is a huge advantage. George. I think the 865 00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:32,080 Speaker 1: buzzword last year the word of the year was r PO. 866 00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:34,000 Speaker 1: I mean, we heard r P O r P O 867 00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:36,280 Speaker 1: r P O. So I know you guys have probably 868 00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:38,920 Speaker 1: done some studies on r P O versus the conventional 869 00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:41,279 Speaker 1: offense this and that talk a little bit about have 870 00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:43,400 Speaker 1: you found that, you know, teams that are using the 871 00:43:43,520 --> 00:43:47,600 Speaker 1: RPO are more successful on certain downs, are not successful 872 00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:49,400 Speaker 1: in certain downs. Give me a little insight on this 873 00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:55,080 Speaker 1: RPO run pass question. It's interesting. I was a huge buzzword, right, 874 00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:56,680 Speaker 1: I mean it was. It was all over the place 875 00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:59,719 Speaker 1: with the Eagles going pretty far. And it turns out, 876 00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:01,640 Speaker 1: so you know, run path option. I think there's a 877 00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:05,960 Speaker 1: little bit of a misunderstanding of what it is. Maybe 878 00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:08,120 Speaker 1: it's just the way that the name is phrase right, 879 00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:10,160 Speaker 1: but if you break it down, you know it's a 880 00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:12,920 Speaker 1: run with a path option. I think they need like 881 00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:17,920 Speaker 1: one more word in there. Yeah, exactly. So. So the 882 00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,640 Speaker 1: idea being that it's a run play, and that means 883 00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,680 Speaker 1: that the offensive line is run blocking and the quarterback 884 00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:26,480 Speaker 1: has the option to then pass the ball, you know, 885 00:44:26,520 --> 00:44:29,880 Speaker 1: because the receivers are actually running routes. So it is 886 00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:32,200 Speaker 1: a run play by nature. And the thing that I 887 00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:35,440 Speaker 1: think continually trip people up is that the even goals 888 00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:38,680 Speaker 1: ran along with the Chiefs ran the most play action 889 00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:41,560 Speaker 1: out of the shotgun formation, which often sort of looks 890 00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:43,279 Speaker 1: like an r p O. And I think it is 891 00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:45,600 Speaker 1: as as much as it as you would think. So 892 00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:48,440 Speaker 1: the Chiefs, for example, ran r p O s on 893 00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:51,440 Speaker 1: of their plays last year and that was the highest 894 00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:55,680 Speaker 1: league eagle sort about and you know they did though 895 00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:59,319 Speaker 1: they were pretty successful on them. The majority of those 896 00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:01,200 Speaker 1: if you look at the used for example, the majority 897 00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:04,319 Speaker 1: of those are ruts. They're actually running more out of 898 00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:06,480 Speaker 1: the run pass option and then they're passing. And I 899 00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:08,960 Speaker 1: think most people want to hear, Okay, well, what's the 900 00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:11,680 Speaker 1: passing success out of the RPO because that's what everyone 901 00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:15,319 Speaker 1: cares about, um, And and it's just it's something that 902 00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:19,120 Speaker 1: I think it's uh, you know, it's a small component 903 00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:23,359 Speaker 1: that can add obviously some efficiency if you do it well. UM, 904 00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:26,480 Speaker 1: but it isn't something that I would say is necessarily 905 00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:28,719 Speaker 1: changing the game. I think they've been around for a 906 00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:32,080 Speaker 1: while and maybe because of the Eagle success, people have 907 00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:35,120 Speaker 1: started trying to talk about it a little bit more. Um. 908 00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:38,400 Speaker 1: If we look at for example, UM, you know expected 909 00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:41,160 Speaker 1: or you know, yards per attempt for example on on 910 00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:44,600 Speaker 1: run pass options, UM, it's it's less than if you're 911 00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:47,359 Speaker 1: not if you don't run a run pass option. Of course, 912 00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:49,960 Speaker 1: there's field position in different situations where you're where you 913 00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:52,719 Speaker 1: will run it. But um, overall, it hasn't been that 914 00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:56,040 Speaker 1: like a huge sort of game breaking thing that we've seen. 915 00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:58,680 Speaker 1: The Eagles were successful on it last year, but it 916 00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:02,000 Speaker 1: wasn't something that they just teams with, you know, with regularity. 917 00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:05,200 Speaker 1: We're joined by George Schaui from Pro Football Focus or 918 00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:09,200 Speaker 1: analytics guy. Um, George, Um, when you take a look 919 00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:11,800 Speaker 1: at the defense and you're trying to build a good defense, 920 00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:14,960 Speaker 1: is it more important to have a great pass rush 921 00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:17,480 Speaker 1: or is it more important to have great cover guys 922 00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:20,359 Speaker 1: on the back end? Oh man, you're you're asking me 923 00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:24,120 Speaker 1: all the questions. This is great. This might this might 924 00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:27,200 Speaker 1: be a more a touch more touchy subject than the 925 00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:29,600 Speaker 1: than the run verse pass thing, because I think we 926 00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:31,839 Speaker 1: can at least we can at least all agree right 927 00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:33,640 Speaker 1: that you're still going to run the ball a little bit, 928 00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:35,359 Speaker 1: and when you do so, you want to be good 929 00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:37,160 Speaker 1: at it, right, Sure, But then when you get into 930 00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:40,239 Speaker 1: this whole pass rush first coverage thing, there's you know 931 00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:43,000 Speaker 1: which one depends more on the other, and you know, 932 00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:45,480 Speaker 1: all these different things that get baked into it. So 933 00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:48,680 Speaker 1: we we tried to attack it really from sort of 934 00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:52,239 Speaker 1: the simplest way you know that we possibly can, which 935 00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:54,840 Speaker 1: is to say, okay, if I just want to predict, 936 00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:57,960 Speaker 1: for example, how many wins a team is going to 937 00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:01,040 Speaker 1: have in a season, which one is going to do better, uh, 938 00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:03,600 Speaker 1: you know, the success of the coverage unit, or the 939 00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:07,760 Speaker 1: success of the pass rush unit. And we found that 940 00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:13,480 Speaker 1: that coverage is three times more predictive of winds, three 941 00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:17,279 Speaker 1: times more highly correlated with wind than pass rush was. 942 00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:21,279 Speaker 1: That doesn't mean pass rush wasn't um isn't important. If we, 943 00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:23,920 Speaker 1: for example, were trying to predict the spread of a game, 944 00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:28,520 Speaker 1: passing success and passing efficiency is the most important thing, 945 00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,960 Speaker 1: and then coverage comes second, and then pass rush shows 946 00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:34,920 Speaker 1: up third. So it's an important thing. But when we 947 00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:38,239 Speaker 1: look at it, you know, just from a very high level, um, 948 00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:41,000 Speaker 1: you know, coverage is just more highly correlated with winds. 949 00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:42,880 Speaker 1: And then if you try and start to sort of 950 00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:46,520 Speaker 1: predict the variance in games, coverage again it's a fair 951 00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:50,440 Speaker 1: bit more explanatory. Um, you know, predicting things forward then 952 00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:53,600 Speaker 1: pass rushes and um, you know, I think even looking 953 00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:55,840 Speaker 1: at it from a play by play standpoint. You know, 954 00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:58,920 Speaker 1: if we just split it out by PFF grade, we 955 00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:01,919 Speaker 1: see that at every level, even at the expected level, 956 00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:05,560 Speaker 1: a pass rush expected play is more valuable for the 957 00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:09,680 Speaker 1: defense than an expected play I'm sorry, a coverage play 958 00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:11,800 Speaker 1: that is expected, it is more valuable for the defense 959 00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:15,920 Speaker 1: then sort of the expected pass rush play. George's real 960 00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:19,520 Speaker 1: quick is that is that because you just don't get 961 00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:24,440 Speaker 1: pass rush on as many possessions as you have coverage 962 00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:26,120 Speaker 1: effect that play beause you know, if you have a 963 00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:28,399 Speaker 1: great game, you you sat a quarterback four or five 964 00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:30,960 Speaker 1: times he throws at forty so you look at a 965 00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:34,480 Speaker 1: ten percent sac rate. But coverage effects every play is 966 00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:37,520 Speaker 1: at the cumulative value of the coverage. That makes it 967 00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:41,600 Speaker 1: that much more important. I think that's a part of it, right. 968 00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:44,440 Speaker 1: So in terms of predicting wins, for example, are looking 969 00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:47,160 Speaker 1: at how, you know, how successful a team it is 970 00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:49,279 Speaker 1: this is in a certain game. I think that is, 971 00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:52,640 Speaker 1: you know, that's obviously huge. I think on a per 972 00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:55,719 Speaker 1: play level, Um, you know, even if you make, say 973 00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:58,040 Speaker 1: a good play, let's say that the you know, the 974 00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:01,480 Speaker 1: edge rusher beats his guy and get to pressure. Um 975 00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:04,080 Speaker 1: So just because you get pressure, it doesn't mean you 976 00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:07,040 Speaker 1: sack the quarterback right now. Obviously, stacks are super valuable 977 00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:11,360 Speaker 1: and pressure is valuable too, but it's not all of 978 00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:14,840 Speaker 1: a sudden killing the play. Whereas if a coverage depender, 979 00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:16,839 Speaker 1: you know, if you have five coverage dependers out there 980 00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:19,759 Speaker 1: and they're all in tight coverage, that that gives them 981 00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:21,919 Speaker 1: an opportunity to make a play on the ball. When 982 00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:24,480 Speaker 1: they make a play on the ball, it's an incompletion. 983 00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:27,400 Speaker 1: Right there's no game, so there's sort of that, you know, 984 00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:30,120 Speaker 1: there's more of a possibility for a successful play even 985 00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:33,040 Speaker 1: with pressure. Um. You know you have quarterbacks now, you know, 986 00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:36,000 Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, all these guys who 987 00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:37,960 Speaker 1: you know, they can evade pressure and the you know, 988 00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,200 Speaker 1: with their feet they can go, you know, pick up 989 00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:42,120 Speaker 1: a bunch of yards. You know, Aaron Rodgers can do 990 00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:44,880 Speaker 1: that too. Um, So I think that plays. That plays 991 00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:47,640 Speaker 1: a role as well. And then I think I think 992 00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:51,240 Speaker 1: there's also you know, in the NFL today, there's everyone's 993 00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:53,520 Speaker 1: trying to throw quickly, and you you know, as a 994 00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:55,959 Speaker 1: pass rusher, it takes you a little bit of time 995 00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:58,200 Speaker 1: to get to the quarterback, you know, and so if 996 00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:01,719 Speaker 1: you're throwing the ball in two seconds? What what is 997 00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:04,319 Speaker 1: the mitigating factor? They're right, what allows me to throw 998 00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:07,239 Speaker 1: the ball in two seconds? Well, if the coverage allows right, 999 00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:10,520 Speaker 1: And so I think that plays a component as well. Um, 1000 00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:13,640 Speaker 1: we looked, we looked at this. Over the past two years, 1001 00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:16,560 Speaker 1: we've been tracking whether a throw is made in rhythm. 1002 00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:19,840 Speaker 1: We have a guy named Zach Robinson played played quarterbacks 1003 00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:22,320 Speaker 1: for uh for Oklahoma State and it was with the 1004 00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:24,120 Speaker 1: pages for a little bit and this is one of 1005 00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:26,600 Speaker 1: the things that he's been really keen on, is looking 1006 00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:28,880 Speaker 1: at when the quarterback hits his back foot, is he 1007 00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:31,799 Speaker 1: able to get rid of the ball right? And it 1008 00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:33,800 Speaker 1: turns out that you can. So if you're in rhythm 1009 00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,320 Speaker 1: and you're under pressure. So I think about that. You know, 1010 00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:38,600 Speaker 1: guys in your face, but you're able to get the 1011 00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:42,680 Speaker 1: ball out when that backfoot hit. Success is actually higher 1012 00:50:42,719 --> 00:50:46,400 Speaker 1: in that situation than if you're not under pressure but 1013 00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:49,360 Speaker 1: unable to throw in rhythm. And I think that speaks 1014 00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:51,680 Speaker 1: to the sort of idea that look, if I must 1015 00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:55,880 Speaker 1: choose one, I'll choose coverage. They're both obviously important, but 1016 00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:58,520 Speaker 1: I think coverage just sort of range a little bit 1017 00:50:58,560 --> 00:51:00,560 Speaker 1: supreme in this case. And I think that's something you 1018 00:51:00,560 --> 00:51:02,239 Speaker 1: saw in the Super Bowl. The eagle is great, you 1019 00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:04,319 Speaker 1: can brush the quarter that if Tom Brady's getting rid 1020 00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:05,920 Speaker 1: of it in a second and a half, what's the difference. 1021 00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:09,600 Speaker 1: And he threw a couple other really kind of big 1022 00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:14,920 Speaker 1: picture stuff. Turnovers slash takeaways. We all know number one statistic. 1023 00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:19,080 Speaker 1: It's the most predictive thing that determines if a team 1024 00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:21,040 Speaker 1: wins or loses a game. And I know I'm not 1025 00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:23,279 Speaker 1: gonna tell you which which side of the ledger I 1026 00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:26,200 Speaker 1: stand here, but I feel pretty confident about I'm curius 1027 00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:31,439 Speaker 1: to see if I'm right. Our turnovers generally speaking, more 1028 00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:35,560 Speaker 1: the result of the offensive team making a mistake or 1029 00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:39,960 Speaker 1: the defensive team making a play. Oh wow, that's that 1030 00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:41,480 Speaker 1: was now what I was expecting you to go with 1031 00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:44,920 Speaker 1: that question. Yeah, but we're not done. Interesting, We're not 1032 00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:50,120 Speaker 1: doing so you know, I um, that is a really 1033 00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:52,000 Speaker 1: I would I'm going to look into that because I 1034 00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:53,880 Speaker 1: think we do have a way to sort of tease 1035 00:51:53,960 --> 00:51:57,239 Speaker 1: that out right, that's for the result of it, you know, 1036 00:51:57,280 --> 00:51:58,800 Speaker 1: And I think we can. I think we start to 1037 00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:02,160 Speaker 1: get at it by saying, are more turnovers, you know, necessary? 1038 00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:05,880 Speaker 1: Are they more so caused by negative plays by the offense, 1039 00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:08,759 Speaker 1: you know, negatively graded play by the offense or a 1040 00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:11,080 Speaker 1: positively greaded play by the defense. That would be a 1041 00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:14,160 Speaker 1: good place to start. But I think that I think 1042 00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:17,360 Speaker 1: the big thing with turnovers, and you know, this is 1043 00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:21,200 Speaker 1: why passer rating is such a sort of bad statistic, 1044 00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:25,680 Speaker 1: is that turnovers are They may predict wins really well, 1045 00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:28,920 Speaker 1: but your ability to predict turnovers is not going to 1046 00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:32,200 Speaker 1: be very good. Right, It's an incredibly unstable thing from 1047 00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:35,239 Speaker 1: game to game. George, is funny you say that, though, 1048 00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:37,239 Speaker 1: But there are some teams like the Chiefs that have 1049 00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:39,879 Speaker 1: been pretty consistent in their turnover ratio over the last 1050 00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:44,640 Speaker 1: three or four years. Right, But so is that because 1051 00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:48,080 Speaker 1: you know, so are they demonstrating what are the underlying 1052 00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:50,719 Speaker 1: things then that are demonstrating, you know, their ability to 1053 00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:54,640 Speaker 1: get turnovers? Don't they've just been have they been? You know? So? 1054 00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:57,239 Speaker 1: Have they just been sort of lucky with fumble recoveries? 1055 00:52:57,480 --> 00:52:59,920 Speaker 1: You know, if you look at touched, look at interception 1056 00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:03,319 Speaker 1: for example, it's one of the least stable things that 1057 00:53:03,440 --> 00:53:06,400 Speaker 1: quarterbacks do is a number of interceptions they have in 1058 00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:08,960 Speaker 1: a season. The nice thing about what we do at 1059 00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:12,279 Speaker 1: PSS is that we grade all of the throws. So 1060 00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:15,080 Speaker 1: if a if a quarterback is a terrible throw into 1061 00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:17,840 Speaker 1: you know, a linebacker that just sitting there and it 1062 00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:20,640 Speaker 1: hits the linebacker's helmet and he dropped it, that gets 1063 00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:24,600 Speaker 1: graded negatively as a turnover worthy play. And we've found 1064 00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:27,759 Speaker 1: that turnover worthy play percentage which includes fumbles. Right, So 1065 00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:30,600 Speaker 1: if you fumble the ball and your offensive lineman happens 1066 00:53:30,640 --> 00:53:32,600 Speaker 1: to sit on it, that doesn't mean that the quarterback 1067 00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:35,399 Speaker 1: should get away scott free. Right, he's he fumbled the ball. 1068 00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:38,719 Speaker 1: That's a bad play. That is significantly more stable from 1069 00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:41,720 Speaker 1: season to season. So when we're building our quarterback metrics, 1070 00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:44,640 Speaker 1: for example, when we're looking at tiers of quarterbacks when 1071 00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:47,800 Speaker 1: we're trying to project them forward, we use turnover worthy 1072 00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:52,600 Speaker 1: play percentage in lieu of interception percentage or fumble recovery 1073 00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:55,040 Speaker 1: percentage or whatever it would be um and that we've 1074 00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:57,440 Speaker 1: seen to you know, get much better results doing that. 1075 00:53:57,600 --> 00:54:00,800 Speaker 1: So it's short. You haven't found anything in the numbers 1076 00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:03,080 Speaker 1: where you can say, well, if teammate can do a 1077 00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:05,200 Speaker 1: B and C and how he great or how they 1078 00:54:05,239 --> 00:54:09,200 Speaker 1: play that has a better chance of forcing turnovers. For example, 1079 00:54:09,280 --> 00:54:13,040 Speaker 1: you think a lot of it really is random. I 1080 00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:15,680 Speaker 1: think certainly the number of turnovers you have is pretty 1081 00:54:15,760 --> 00:54:19,120 Speaker 1: darn random. Um. And I think, you know, you'll probably 1082 00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:21,960 Speaker 1: find that better football players have a you know, have 1083 00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:24,760 Speaker 1: a higher impact on turnovers than or at least turnover 1084 00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:28,799 Speaker 1: opportunities than bad football players. But so much of what 1085 00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:32,200 Speaker 1: happens after they make the play is random, um. And 1086 00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:35,080 Speaker 1: I think that's just something that that you know, is 1087 00:54:35,120 --> 00:54:37,200 Speaker 1: a fact. Now, where where did you think I was 1088 00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:40,799 Speaker 1: going to go with that turnover question, George? I thought 1089 00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:42,920 Speaker 1: you were going to ask whether or not there that's 1090 00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:45,280 Speaker 1: something we can rely on game to game or season 1091 00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:50,680 Speaker 1: to season, and your and your answer would be no, correct, Yeah, 1092 00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:54,160 Speaker 1: I would. I would always try to look at the 1093 00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:58,320 Speaker 1: try and value the process that led to it, um, 1094 00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:01,239 Speaker 1: and see if I can quantify that before looking at 1095 00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:04,640 Speaker 1: the outcome. I think that in general, something that look, 1096 00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:06,279 Speaker 1: if I want to be predictive, you know, if I 1097 00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:09,759 Speaker 1: want to predict sacks for example, season to season, me 1098 00:55:09,960 --> 00:55:12,560 Speaker 1: just taking their sack total and trying to you know, 1099 00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:16,279 Speaker 1: project it forward is is almost worthless. But if I 1100 00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:18,720 Speaker 1: take a bigger sample size of the number of times 1101 00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:22,279 Speaker 1: that for example, a rusher beat his uh, you know, 1102 00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:24,759 Speaker 1: the pass walker in front of him. That is far 1103 00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:27,160 Speaker 1: more predictive of how many sacks are how going forward. 1104 00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:29,400 Speaker 1: So you know, when we want to predict, for example, 1105 00:55:29,400 --> 00:55:32,920 Speaker 1: how many turnovers a quarterback will have, will use his 1106 00:55:33,000 --> 00:55:36,000 Speaker 1: turnobility play rate, because that is indicative more of the 1107 00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:39,080 Speaker 1: process and the outcome. Um real quickly and we run 1108 00:55:39,080 --> 00:55:41,480 Speaker 1: out of time. Just the whole turnover thing. When coach 1109 00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:44,560 Speaker 1: Coffin was with the Giants, every Friday, we had like 1110 00:55:44,600 --> 00:55:46,840 Speaker 1: a meeting that did a lot of these analytics stuff, 1111 00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:49,399 Speaker 1: and his number one thing, who was always when you're 1112 00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:51,600 Speaker 1: on the road and you have more than two turnovers, 1113 00:55:51,719 --> 00:55:54,120 Speaker 1: you have a x percent a chance of winning the game. 1114 00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:56,359 Speaker 1: And I remember sitting on the bench sometimes we would 1115 00:55:56,360 --> 00:55:58,040 Speaker 1: turn the ball over on the road twice in the 1116 00:55:58,040 --> 00:56:01,120 Speaker 1: first half, going we're never gonna win this game because 1117 00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:03,600 Speaker 1: of the statistics. Right, But it just and it doesn't 1118 00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:05,880 Speaker 1: have to be a long answer, George, do you find 1119 00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:09,239 Speaker 1: that that statistic in football is as key as it 1120 00:56:09,320 --> 00:56:12,800 Speaker 1: is that the coaches are trying to portray to the players, like, listen, 1121 00:56:12,800 --> 00:56:14,560 Speaker 1: you win the turnover battle, you're gonna win the game. 1122 00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:19,879 Speaker 1: Of the time, we've all been yeah, we're have all 1123 00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:22,480 Speaker 1: been in that competitive situation, right, And I think there's 1124 00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:26,480 Speaker 1: a huge difference between someone's trying to predict the outcome 1125 00:56:26,520 --> 00:56:29,359 Speaker 1: of the game, you know, from you know, wherever we're 1126 00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:32,560 Speaker 1: sitting right now, and there's a big difference between that 1127 00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:35,799 Speaker 1: and then the players actually playing in the game. Right. 1128 00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:38,640 Speaker 1: So if you're if your players go in there knowing 1129 00:56:38,680 --> 00:56:43,840 Speaker 1: how valuable turnovers are, that's fantastic, absolutely right. I certainly 1130 00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:46,680 Speaker 1: want my players now as long as it doesn't you know, 1131 00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:48,680 Speaker 1: as long as we don't see you know, more busted 1132 00:56:48,719 --> 00:56:51,120 Speaker 1: coverages or more mis tackles. I mean, that's something that 1133 00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:53,719 Speaker 1: I think is worth thinking about as sort of the 1134 00:56:53,960 --> 00:56:56,320 Speaker 1: you know, the bad side of those things. But there's 1135 00:56:56,360 --> 00:56:59,760 Speaker 1: nothing wrong in my opinion, with you know, telling players 1136 00:56:59,800 --> 00:57:02,920 Speaker 1: how valuables making certain plays are. I would just want 1137 00:57:02,960 --> 00:57:05,040 Speaker 1: to be real with them and say, look, you can 1138 00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:08,440 Speaker 1: still make great plays without turning the ball over. Right, 1139 00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:10,960 Speaker 1: Let's also make sure we limit the big plays. We 1140 00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:13,719 Speaker 1: just talked about how important those are as well. So, uh, 1141 00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:16,400 Speaker 1: you know, it's not predictive obviously, because it's hard for 1142 00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:18,439 Speaker 1: me to tell whether a guy's gonna you know, get 1143 00:57:18,480 --> 00:57:21,479 Speaker 1: whether it's in the force two turnovers or not. But look, 1144 00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:24,840 Speaker 1: you've got to motivate guys to do things that are valuable. Certainly, 1145 00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:26,680 Speaker 1: well have you have you found that the team that 1146 00:57:26,840 --> 00:57:29,520 Speaker 1: you know, just over the course of your studies and stuff, 1147 00:57:29,560 --> 00:57:32,520 Speaker 1: that the turnover battle, whoever wins the turnover beter typically 1148 00:57:32,520 --> 00:57:35,840 Speaker 1: wins the game outright without anything else. I mean, it's 1149 00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:38,080 Speaker 1: an easy it's an easy question, but it's probably not 1150 00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:41,600 Speaker 1: easy to answer, you know what I'm saying. Yeah, I'm 1151 00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:44,400 Speaker 1: pretty sure that your colleague is right that it is 1152 00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:47,240 Speaker 1: one of the most predictive things of of winning a 1153 00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:49,760 Speaker 1: football game. But I'll remind you that so is the 1154 00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:52,880 Speaker 1: number of kneel downs that the team takes. So you know, 1155 00:57:52,920 --> 00:57:56,640 Speaker 1: there there are things, There are things that are descriptive 1156 00:57:56,680 --> 00:57:58,640 Speaker 1: of what happened in the game, and there are things 1157 00:57:58,680 --> 00:58:02,160 Speaker 1: that are predictive, right, And so certainly the turnover battle 1158 00:58:02,320 --> 00:58:04,520 Speaker 1: is descriptive. Right. It tells you a heck of a 1159 00:58:04,520 --> 00:58:07,400 Speaker 1: lot about what happened in the games. But me trying 1160 00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:10,360 Speaker 1: to then spin that forward, Look, Eli could throw four 1161 00:58:10,400 --> 00:58:12,680 Speaker 1: interceptions in a game, not one of them could be 1162 00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:16,880 Speaker 1: his fault. So me going forward the next week and saying, oh, 1163 00:58:16,920 --> 00:58:20,040 Speaker 1: Eli was terrible last week, That's not the right way 1164 00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:22,080 Speaker 1: to then project things forward. And I think that's the 1165 00:58:22,200 --> 00:58:27,040 Speaker 1: key distinction that honestly, that that is about of the 1166 00:58:27,080 --> 00:58:31,400 Speaker 1: bone headed takes that you see, you know throughout you know, TV, radio, 1167 00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:35,120 Speaker 1: written word, whatever it is, most of them are dealing 1168 00:58:35,120 --> 00:58:37,560 Speaker 1: with that issue. Okay, Georgia and know oral one o'clock, 1169 00:58:37,600 --> 00:58:39,560 Speaker 1: I got a few more rapid fire questions for you 1170 00:58:39,640 --> 00:58:42,480 Speaker 1: if you have like five more minutes for us, real quick, um, 1171 00:58:42,520 --> 00:58:45,520 Speaker 1: and I imagine what you just talked about, descriptive stats 1172 00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:48,880 Speaker 1: rather than predictive stats. That's why when you look at 1173 00:58:48,920 --> 00:58:52,240 Speaker 1: the leader board and you see you know, six all 1174 00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:54,680 Speaker 1: six teams that lad the league in rushing were also 1175 00:58:54,720 --> 00:58:57,600 Speaker 1: playoff teams. They're up there because they're in the lead 1176 00:58:57,840 --> 00:59:00,000 Speaker 1: and they're killing the clock and that's why they're rushing 1177 00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:01,920 Speaker 1: yards are as high as they are. Is that kind 1178 00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:04,200 Speaker 1: of where you guys are coming from from a rushing 1179 00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:08,280 Speaker 1: perspective with those you know, types of relationships between wins 1180 00:59:08,320 --> 00:59:12,720 Speaker 1: and rushing yards that teams might have. Yep, that's exactly it, right, 1181 00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:14,640 Speaker 1: So a team, you know, it is a team winning 1182 00:59:14,680 --> 00:59:17,760 Speaker 1: because they're running or they're running because they're winning. And 1183 00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:20,720 Speaker 1: I think, uh, you know, we it's certainly one side 1184 00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:23,960 Speaker 1: of the back coin for sure, got it? What I 1185 00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:26,040 Speaker 1: think running back is going to be the answer? On offense, 1186 00:59:26,400 --> 00:59:32,960 Speaker 1: what positions UM have the least amount of impact on 1187 00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:38,520 Speaker 1: winning on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Yeah, 1188 00:59:38,560 --> 00:59:41,280 Speaker 1: that's a great question. Uh So on the offensive side 1189 00:59:41,320 --> 00:59:43,680 Speaker 1: of the ball, I think it's um. You know, I 1190 00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:45,360 Speaker 1: think you can make a case for the running back. 1191 00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:48,280 Speaker 1: I also think into your linemen have shown to be 1192 00:59:48,360 --> 00:59:51,440 Speaker 1: a little less important. UM. So I think those with 1193 00:59:51,520 --> 00:59:54,000 Speaker 1: the two i'd go with basically because they impact the 1194 00:59:54,040 --> 00:59:56,520 Speaker 1: passing in the least. And when I look at if 1195 00:59:56,560 --> 00:59:59,000 Speaker 1: I just look at strength of team, So if I 1196 00:59:59,080 --> 01:00:01,640 Speaker 1: just boil it down to how what's your e p 1197 01:00:01,840 --> 01:00:05,560 Speaker 1: A per play? You know, generally your your increase of 1198 01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:08,160 Speaker 1: expected points that you gain per play? How strong are 1199 01:00:08,200 --> 01:00:12,960 Speaker 1: you in passing? Running UM and special teams on the 1200 01:00:13,000 --> 01:00:17,160 Speaker 1: offensive side, and then passing defense, run defense and special 1201 01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:21,640 Speaker 1: teams on the defensive side. Passing is by far on 1202 01:00:21,720 --> 01:00:24,240 Speaker 1: both sides of the ball. The most important. It's coefficient. 1203 01:00:24,240 --> 01:00:26,520 Speaker 1: If I just run the linear model is twice that 1204 01:00:27,120 --> 01:00:29,920 Speaker 1: of anything else, and then you'll be You'll like to 1205 01:00:29,960 --> 01:00:35,280 Speaker 1: hear this, running and special teams are about equal. I 1206 01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:41,120 Speaker 1: should have got I should have got paid seven million dollars. 1207 01:00:40,640 --> 01:00:44,960 Speaker 1: And then from the defense, defensive side, I'll quickly say, 1208 01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:48,479 Speaker 1: I think interior guys that um, you know, they're where 1209 01:00:48,520 --> 01:00:51,040 Speaker 1: they kind of stuff the you know, run as their 1210 01:00:51,080 --> 01:00:55,120 Speaker 1: primary thing. Damon Harrison is a huge outlier. He's valuable, 1211 01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:58,000 Speaker 1: and it takes so yet to be great to be valuable. 1212 01:00:58,000 --> 01:00:59,800 Speaker 1: And he is such a hard position, and he is 1213 01:00:59,800 --> 01:01:02,080 Speaker 1: he such an hourlier though, he's so far ahead of 1214 01:01:02,120 --> 01:01:05,720 Speaker 1: anybody else. And here's I'm want to make sure I 1215 01:01:05,720 --> 01:01:10,440 Speaker 1: I've phrases properly. How about like the difference between a 1216 01:01:10,560 --> 01:01:14,120 Speaker 1: really good safety versus a below average safety, or a 1217 01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:17,680 Speaker 1: good linebacker versus a blow average linebacker. Obviously you're gonna 1218 01:01:17,680 --> 01:01:19,600 Speaker 1: see a big impact. You have a corner that you 1219 01:01:19,600 --> 01:01:22,160 Speaker 1: know kind of scales up and down. But it is 1220 01:01:22,160 --> 01:01:23,920 Speaker 1: it gonna kill your team having a you know, a 1221 01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:26,120 Speaker 1: blow average safety or a linebacker on the field as 1222 01:01:26,200 --> 01:01:27,960 Speaker 1: much as it will say at another position, you know 1223 01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:31,240 Speaker 1: what I mean? Yeah, yeah, I see as you're saying. 1224 01:01:31,720 --> 01:01:33,840 Speaker 1: I'm of the mind that you know, your goal is 1225 01:01:33,880 --> 01:01:35,760 Speaker 1: to beat the best teams out there, and I think 1226 01:01:35,800 --> 01:01:39,000 Speaker 1: the best teams isolate your weakness. So it's good point 1227 01:01:39,000 --> 01:01:42,160 Speaker 1: in my mind, having having a guy in coverage that 1228 01:01:42,360 --> 01:01:44,840 Speaker 1: is a weakness. That That's why I think coverage is 1229 01:01:44,920 --> 01:01:48,120 Speaker 1: so important. That's why I'm drafting so many corners. I'm 1230 01:01:48,160 --> 01:01:51,200 Speaker 1: drafting linebackers that can cover safety, that can cover the slot. 1231 01:01:51,520 --> 01:01:53,120 Speaker 1: Because when I play Tom Brady, if I want to 1232 01:01:53,120 --> 01:01:54,960 Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl, I gotta go through Tom Brady. 1233 01:01:55,200 --> 01:01:57,280 Speaker 1: And I had to trot a linebacker out there who 1234 01:01:57,320 --> 01:02:00,400 Speaker 1: can't cover anybody, They're gonna torch me on that game. 1235 01:02:00,440 --> 01:02:03,280 Speaker 1: And so I think, um, I think the spread is 1236 01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:06,160 Speaker 1: pretty big when you face the top teams in the NFL. 1237 01:02:06,240 --> 01:02:10,800 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go one one college question, which positions are 1238 01:02:10,960 --> 01:02:15,720 Speaker 1: most difficult to predict um in terms of a player's 1239 01:02:15,760 --> 01:02:21,560 Speaker 1: ability to carry his college production and general play um 1240 01:02:21,720 --> 01:02:25,440 Speaker 1: ability to the pro level. This is a great question, 1241 01:02:25,520 --> 01:02:29,240 Speaker 1: and this speaks to the coverage versus pass rush thing, 1242 01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:32,880 Speaker 1: because in general, whether you're at looking NFL season to 1243 01:02:32,960 --> 01:02:38,160 Speaker 1: season or college two, pro coverage is not very stable. Um. 1244 01:02:38,240 --> 01:02:39,840 Speaker 1: In other words, you know, just because the guy who's 1245 01:02:39,880 --> 01:02:42,480 Speaker 1: good one year, I'm not as confident it would be 1246 01:02:42,520 --> 01:02:46,600 Speaker 1: good the next year. Whereas we've seen that pass rush 1247 01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:49,160 Speaker 1: and run defense at the college level. So We're using 1248 01:02:49,160 --> 01:02:53,800 Speaker 1: the PFF grades to measure production is tremendously stable from 1249 01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:57,120 Speaker 1: college to pro. And so I am taking you know, 1250 01:02:57,160 --> 01:02:59,320 Speaker 1: you see guys like Aaron Donald, who's a great example 1251 01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:02,480 Speaker 1: that you know, you tremendous production wise in college and 1252 01:03:02,520 --> 01:03:04,960 Speaker 1: has been at the pro level um. And so what 1253 01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:08,160 Speaker 1: I'm I'm using that to inform my team building, Right, 1254 01:03:08,200 --> 01:03:10,280 Speaker 1: I'm more confident that the one or two guys I 1255 01:03:10,400 --> 01:03:12,880 Speaker 1: pick as pass rushers are run defenders are going to 1256 01:03:12,960 --> 01:03:15,480 Speaker 1: be good. And then I'm taking as many many lottery 1257 01:03:15,520 --> 01:03:19,000 Speaker 1: tickets on cornerbacks and you know, coverage guys as I can, 1258 01:03:19,280 --> 01:03:22,040 Speaker 1: and I think the same is kind of true with 1259 01:03:22,040 --> 01:03:24,720 Speaker 1: with quarterbacks as well. We just have a small sample 1260 01:03:24,760 --> 01:03:27,640 Speaker 1: size of those. And so that's that's an area where 1261 01:03:27,640 --> 01:03:29,919 Speaker 1: obviously there's a lot of leverage to to get better 1262 01:03:29,960 --> 01:03:32,200 Speaker 1: at that quickly, and I think we are. We're working 1263 01:03:32,240 --> 01:03:35,560 Speaker 1: really hard to get better at predicting quarterback play from college. 1264 01:03:35,800 --> 01:03:38,080 Speaker 1: So the defensive end is your is your go to guy? 1265 01:03:38,160 --> 01:03:40,400 Speaker 1: There's that's the one the one position that you're not 1266 01:03:40,400 --> 01:03:43,240 Speaker 1: going to see that much of a drop off, especially 1267 01:03:43,320 --> 01:03:46,240 Speaker 1: from coming from the bigger, bigger conferences, you know, like 1268 01:03:46,320 --> 01:03:51,480 Speaker 1: next year, it's is defensive end. So and then the qbs, 1269 01:03:51,520 --> 01:03:53,880 Speaker 1: like the smallest sample size you know, to me, it's 1270 01:03:53,960 --> 01:03:57,320 Speaker 1: QB would be the hardest one to be able to predict, 1271 01:03:57,720 --> 01:03:59,440 Speaker 1: even though they've drafted so many of them in the 1272 01:03:59,440 --> 01:04:01,280 Speaker 1: first round here. But you know, you look at all 1273 01:04:01,280 --> 01:04:03,160 Speaker 1: these first round draft picks that come out as quarterback, 1274 01:04:03,160 --> 01:04:05,720 Speaker 1: they don't all make them. They don't make it very often. 1275 01:04:07,200 --> 01:04:09,240 Speaker 1: And I think a huge component of that is that 1276 01:04:09,520 --> 01:04:13,680 Speaker 1: because there's so little information on the college side of things. Um. 1277 01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:16,560 Speaker 1: And we've just started ramping up our own data collection 1278 01:04:16,560 --> 01:04:19,160 Speaker 1: process to get better at this. You see so much 1279 01:04:19,320 --> 01:04:23,320 Speaker 1: of quarterback, you know, drafting, being drafted high is based 1280 01:04:23,400 --> 01:04:26,080 Speaker 1: on you know, sort of projection, right. Josh Son is 1281 01:04:26,120 --> 01:04:29,000 Speaker 1: a great example of that, right He he just looked 1282 01:04:29,160 --> 01:04:32,800 Speaker 1: like he could potentially be great. He had all the tools, right, Um, 1283 01:04:32,920 --> 01:04:35,880 Speaker 1: And that's because people don't feel as confident in measuring 1284 01:04:35,960 --> 01:04:38,840 Speaker 1: how well a guy performed truly at the college level. 1285 01:04:39,240 --> 01:04:41,040 Speaker 1: And we're doing you know, there's a lot of things 1286 01:04:41,040 --> 01:04:44,720 Speaker 1: we're working on. One of them is is isolating NFL throws. 1287 01:04:44,880 --> 01:04:47,800 Speaker 1: These are the throws that you know, based on separation, 1288 01:04:48,000 --> 01:04:50,600 Speaker 1: based on death relative to the line to game, based 1289 01:04:50,640 --> 01:04:53,400 Speaker 1: on the type of route in the situation have shown 1290 01:04:53,440 --> 01:04:56,560 Speaker 1: to be separators of quarterbacks at the NFL level. And 1291 01:04:56,560 --> 01:04:59,400 Speaker 1: then because we have that same data at the college level, 1292 01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:02,040 Speaker 1: we can look at those same subset of throws at 1293 01:05:02,080 --> 01:05:04,959 Speaker 1: the college level. So we saw like Pat Mahome didn't 1294 01:05:05,040 --> 01:05:06,880 Speaker 1: make a ton of NFL throws. He had a lot 1295 01:05:06,920 --> 01:05:08,600 Speaker 1: of you know, text tech and a lot of weird, 1296 01:05:08,880 --> 01:05:11,320 Speaker 1: you know, scheme throws, right, but when he threw those, 1297 01:05:11,480 --> 01:05:14,480 Speaker 1: he was very good. Baker Mayfield exact same way, a 1298 01:05:14,480 --> 01:05:17,000 Speaker 1: lot of great scheme stuff, but he was still great 1299 01:05:17,080 --> 01:05:19,320 Speaker 1: when it came to making NFL throws. So I think 1300 01:05:19,320 --> 01:05:22,520 Speaker 1: we're getting better. But there's it's it's a it's a 1301 01:05:22,640 --> 01:05:25,520 Speaker 1: very steep mountain to climb, for sure. Here's an indirectly 1302 01:05:25,600 --> 01:05:29,360 Speaker 1: but directly Eric Flowers related question. Is there any difference 1303 01:05:29,480 --> 01:05:32,520 Speaker 1: in the importance between the left tackle and a right 1304 01:05:32,560 --> 01:05:35,640 Speaker 1: tackle on an offensive line? And should there be any 1305 01:05:35,720 --> 01:05:40,120 Speaker 1: differentiation in the skill set necessary to play right tackle 1306 01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:42,360 Speaker 1: and left tackle in the modern day NFL? And where 1307 01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:47,720 Speaker 1: Eric Flowers being much better this year? Well, I can 1308 01:05:47,840 --> 01:05:50,160 Speaker 1: I can tell you this. If he is not much 1309 01:05:50,200 --> 01:05:53,600 Speaker 1: better this year, it will be just as detrimental to 1310 01:05:53,720 --> 01:05:55,560 Speaker 1: the team as it would be from the left side. 1311 01:05:55,600 --> 01:05:58,320 Speaker 1: We have seen there is very little. I mean, there 1312 01:05:58,400 --> 01:06:01,840 Speaker 1: is still a little difference in terms of value from 1313 01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:03,960 Speaker 1: the left tackle in the right tackle position, but it's 1314 01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:07,920 Speaker 1: very minimal. Both tackle positions kill you if they're bad. 1315 01:06:07,960 --> 01:06:10,320 Speaker 1: And that's the big thing that the big takeaway that 1316 01:06:10,360 --> 01:06:13,600 Speaker 1: we've come away with. Going from an amazing left tackle 1317 01:06:13,720 --> 01:06:16,200 Speaker 1: or or right tackle to an average one isn't a 1318 01:06:16,200 --> 01:06:20,880 Speaker 1: big deal. It's going from you know, average too detrimental 1319 01:06:21,000 --> 01:06:23,240 Speaker 1: that kills you. And I think that makes sense if 1320 01:06:23,280 --> 01:06:26,400 Speaker 1: anyone that's watched the game of football. But what there's 1321 01:06:26,440 --> 01:06:29,760 Speaker 1: an inefficiency here, which is I think that left tackles. 1322 01:06:29,960 --> 01:06:32,200 Speaker 1: You know, if you look at it in terms of salary, 1323 01:06:32,520 --> 01:06:35,800 Speaker 1: there's twelve guys that make I think ten million plus 1324 01:06:35,840 --> 01:06:38,800 Speaker 1: per years at left tackle, and there's one guy that 1325 01:06:38,880 --> 01:06:41,919 Speaker 1: makes ten plus million per year at right tackle. So, um, 1326 01:06:41,960 --> 01:06:44,360 Speaker 1: I think there's a huge inefficiency to be had there. 1327 01:06:44,480 --> 01:06:47,720 Speaker 1: I'm probably looking to draft guys. You won't like to 1328 01:06:47,720 --> 01:06:49,640 Speaker 1: hear this, but I'm looking to draft guys to play 1329 01:06:49,720 --> 01:06:51,600 Speaker 1: left tackle. And I'd be more willing to sign a 1330 01:06:51,600 --> 01:06:53,560 Speaker 1: guy to play right tackle because I think it would 1331 01:06:53,600 --> 01:06:55,600 Speaker 1: save me a little money, all right, George final question, 1332 01:06:55,640 --> 01:06:57,320 Speaker 1: because if I didn't ask it, Paul the Tino, who's 1333 01:06:57,360 --> 01:07:01,760 Speaker 1: one of other hosts, would hunt me down and murder me. Um, 1334 01:07:01,840 --> 01:07:06,600 Speaker 1: why have you guys so consistently the last four or 1335 01:07:06,640 --> 01:07:10,000 Speaker 1: five years graded Eli Manning as poorly as you have. 1336 01:07:10,120 --> 01:07:12,080 Speaker 1: I think you have right the twenty one or twenty 1337 01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:14,640 Speaker 1: second ranked quarterback. And I know it drives Paul off 1338 01:07:14,640 --> 01:07:16,480 Speaker 1: the wall. And I told him I'd ask you the questions. 1339 01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:18,560 Speaker 1: So I'm asking you the question some of the things 1340 01:07:18,560 --> 01:07:22,880 Speaker 1: he's already said. He's already we can come to the distinction, right, 1341 01:07:23,040 --> 01:07:27,640 Speaker 1: I mean big time throws, right, Yeah, you're you're preaching 1342 01:07:27,640 --> 01:07:29,840 Speaker 1: my language. I mean, look in eleven and twelve he 1343 01:07:29,920 --> 01:07:31,840 Speaker 1: was a top ten graded guy, and I think if 1344 01:07:31,880 --> 01:07:34,080 Speaker 1: you go back and watch those seasons, you'll sort of 1345 01:07:34,200 --> 01:07:37,520 Speaker 1: notice why from that point on he's been basically in 1346 01:07:37,560 --> 01:07:40,120 Speaker 1: the twenties. He was twenty eight last year, and if 1347 01:07:40,120 --> 01:07:43,520 Speaker 1: you look at exactly what we were talking about before, um, 1348 01:07:43,560 --> 01:07:45,600 Speaker 1: you know, his ability to throw the ball and make 1349 01:07:45,640 --> 01:07:48,480 Speaker 1: those big time throws was thirty fourth out of forty one. 1350 01:07:48,560 --> 01:07:51,680 Speaker 1: Last year. He was twenty seven out of forty one 1351 01:07:51,760 --> 01:07:55,480 Speaker 1: in limiting turnover worthy plays, which is you know, not 1352 01:07:55,520 --> 01:07:57,520 Speaker 1: what you expect from a guy that's not pushing the 1353 01:07:57,520 --> 01:07:59,760 Speaker 1: ball down field of time, and his average up the 1354 01:07:59,760 --> 01:08:02,560 Speaker 1: tar it was you know, just in the seventh So um, 1355 01:08:02,600 --> 01:08:05,520 Speaker 1: I think you know, for Eli, certainly last year you 1356 01:08:05,520 --> 01:08:07,520 Speaker 1: can you can look at the supporting cast and you 1357 01:08:07,520 --> 01:08:10,200 Speaker 1: can say, Okay, the supporting cast was awful. Right. I 1358 01:08:10,440 --> 01:08:12,960 Speaker 1: don't think there's any doubt there. But um, you know, 1359 01:08:13,000 --> 01:08:15,280 Speaker 1: even if you take sort of the last four years 1360 01:08:15,720 --> 01:08:19,360 Speaker 1: kind of together, Um, you know in teen he was 1361 01:08:19,400 --> 01:08:22,160 Speaker 1: thirty five and big time throw rate inf he was 1362 01:08:22,200 --> 01:08:26,360 Speaker 1: twenty seven, he was twenty five. Um, if you take 1363 01:08:26,400 --> 01:08:29,479 Speaker 1: all four years together, he's twenty four in terms of 1364 01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:32,120 Speaker 1: grade from a clean pocket. So even if you're taking 1365 01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:34,439 Speaker 1: away the times he was under pressure, and look what 1366 01:08:34,520 --> 01:08:36,600 Speaker 1: we've found. This is a cool little nugget here, is 1367 01:08:36,600 --> 01:08:40,400 Speaker 1: that performance from a clean pocket is generally way more 1368 01:08:40,439 --> 01:08:43,240 Speaker 1: it's way more stable season to season. So if a 1369 01:08:43,240 --> 01:08:45,759 Speaker 1: guy is an outlier season in pressure, you know, under pressure, 1370 01:08:45,760 --> 01:08:47,280 Speaker 1: would it be bad or good? We kind of like 1371 01:08:47,400 --> 01:08:50,360 Speaker 1: to look at the clean pocket stuff, and you know, 1372 01:08:50,400 --> 01:08:52,439 Speaker 1: Eli Manning has been a mid twenties guy from the 1373 01:08:52,439 --> 01:08:55,639 Speaker 1: clean pocket for four seasons, so um, you know he's 1374 01:08:55,680 --> 01:08:58,840 Speaker 1: not He's not terrible, but he's not really in the 1375 01:08:58,880 --> 01:09:01,479 Speaker 1: top half a quarterback at this point. One quick file 1376 01:09:01,600 --> 01:09:03,120 Speaker 1: up on that, George, and I think one thing that's 1377 01:09:03,120 --> 01:09:05,800 Speaker 1: frustrated Giant fans about the offense that they kind of 1378 01:09:05,800 --> 01:09:07,840 Speaker 1: put Eli in over the last four years is that 1379 01:09:07,880 --> 01:09:10,800 Speaker 1: they didn't really give him the opportunity to get the 1380 01:09:10,800 --> 01:09:13,040 Speaker 1: ball down the field as much like they did under 1381 01:09:13,120 --> 01:09:15,600 Speaker 1: Kevin Gilbright in eleven and twelve in years before that, 1382 01:09:15,800 --> 01:09:17,680 Speaker 1: And frankly, he was always a great deep passer down 1383 01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:19,880 Speaker 1: the middle of the field in those really good years. 1384 01:09:20,120 --> 01:09:22,280 Speaker 1: So I guess my question when you say his big 1385 01:09:22,320 --> 01:09:25,800 Speaker 1: time throw rate is down, is that his success rate 1386 01:09:25,880 --> 01:09:29,439 Speaker 1: on those throws or simply the number of those throws 1387 01:09:29,479 --> 01:09:31,720 Speaker 1: that he's attempting if you know kind of where I'm 1388 01:09:31,720 --> 01:09:35,479 Speaker 1: going with this. Yep. No, it's all based on how 1389 01:09:35,520 --> 01:09:38,840 Speaker 1: good the throw is totally agnostic of what type of 1390 01:09:38,840 --> 01:09:40,720 Speaker 1: play is made on the other side of things. So 1391 01:09:41,000 --> 01:09:43,240 Speaker 1: if you know, if his players are dropped and passes 1392 01:09:43,320 --> 01:09:45,760 Speaker 1: left and right, he's not getting dinged for those, and 1393 01:09:45,800 --> 01:09:48,559 Speaker 1: he has been unlucky. Look, he had forty three drop 1394 01:09:48,560 --> 01:09:50,840 Speaker 1: passes last season, which was the most he's had over 1395 01:09:50,840 --> 01:09:54,160 Speaker 1: the past four seasons. Um. So I think there's I 1396 01:09:54,200 --> 01:09:56,559 Speaker 1: think UIs falls into and this is one of the 1397 01:09:56,560 --> 01:09:59,920 Speaker 1: things we do with quarterback heres as we we cluster 1398 01:10:00,000 --> 01:10:02,680 Speaker 1: of them into similar groups. And what we've seen at 1399 01:10:02,680 --> 01:10:05,280 Speaker 1: this sort of pattern where the Tier one guys are 1400 01:10:05,560 --> 01:10:08,240 Speaker 1: they can do it regardless of who you put around them. 1401 01:10:08,280 --> 01:10:10,280 Speaker 1: But once you get into tier three and four, and 1402 01:10:10,320 --> 01:10:12,719 Speaker 1: Eli Manning was it was it was a cluster four 1403 01:10:12,800 --> 01:10:15,519 Speaker 1: guy last season, which means he was sort of a 1404 01:10:15,560 --> 01:10:19,559 Speaker 1: more safe second tier quarterback. Those guys are more dependent 1405 01:10:19,640 --> 01:10:22,360 Speaker 1: on the players around them. So you know, Eli could 1406 01:10:22,360 --> 01:10:25,479 Speaker 1: certainly have a good season if everything falls in the 1407 01:10:25,520 --> 01:10:28,439 Speaker 1: line around him. Um. But you know, it's not a 1408 01:10:28,479 --> 01:10:31,080 Speaker 1: guy that if things are kind of falling apart, he's 1409 01:10:31,120 --> 01:10:34,040 Speaker 1: going to pick them up. Um. And I think that's 1410 01:10:34,120 --> 01:10:36,080 Speaker 1: I think that's a pretty fair way of putting where 1411 01:10:36,080 --> 01:10:39,599 Speaker 1: he's at right now. More specifically, on the big time 1412 01:10:39,680 --> 01:10:43,559 Speaker 1: throw stet wasn't an issue of him not throwing enough 1413 01:10:43,600 --> 01:10:46,479 Speaker 1: of those in terms of volume or was it his 1414 01:10:46,600 --> 01:10:50,800 Speaker 1: success rate on the ones he did throw that killed him? Yeah, 1415 01:10:50,840 --> 01:10:53,960 Speaker 1: So the big time throw rate is only um, you know, 1416 01:10:54,040 --> 01:10:58,080 Speaker 1: out of it's the the um it's divided out of 1417 01:10:58,080 --> 01:11:00,840 Speaker 1: the number of total passes that a guy makes, right, 1418 01:11:00,960 --> 01:11:05,040 Speaker 1: So obviously not giving him as many opportunities. And I, uh, 1419 01:11:05,600 --> 01:11:08,000 Speaker 1: let me look here, I can't remember exactly what his 1420 01:11:08,240 --> 01:11:11,400 Speaker 1: um deep pass rate was. Let's see, it was really 1421 01:11:11,400 --> 01:11:13,680 Speaker 1: low last season. So we only threw ten and a 1422 01:11:13,720 --> 01:11:16,160 Speaker 1: half percent of his ten and a half percent of 1423 01:11:16,240 --> 01:11:19,639 Speaker 1: his passes went twenty plus yards downfield. That's that's not great. 1424 01:11:19,720 --> 01:11:22,719 Speaker 1: I think maybe only Dak was in the single digits 1425 01:11:22,760 --> 01:11:25,439 Speaker 1: last year, so that's a huge component of it. They're 1426 01:11:25,479 --> 01:11:27,840 Speaker 1: not running play action at time. He's been under twenty 1427 01:11:28,920 --> 01:11:31,640 Speaker 1: each of the past three seasons. Play action. It's not 1428 01:11:31,720 --> 01:11:34,120 Speaker 1: all on Eli, right. We look at what Sean McVeigh 1429 01:11:34,120 --> 01:11:38,880 Speaker 1: did that Jared Goff. Jared Goff was unspectacular from a 1430 01:11:38,920 --> 01:11:42,200 Speaker 1: grading standpoint, from an accuracy standpoint, but the guy had 1431 01:11:42,240 --> 01:11:44,559 Speaker 1: more open throws than anyone else. He was thrown off 1432 01:11:44,560 --> 01:11:46,840 Speaker 1: a play action to guys running Scott free over the 1433 01:11:46,840 --> 01:11:49,760 Speaker 1: middle of the field. That makes a quarterback feel a 1434 01:11:49,760 --> 01:11:51,879 Speaker 1: lot better, play, a lot better in the team, obviously 1435 01:11:51,880 --> 01:11:54,519 Speaker 1: be a lot more successful. So just because you know 1436 01:11:54,600 --> 01:11:58,920 Speaker 1: Eli hasn't performed great, doesn't mean it's necessarily all his fault. 1437 01:11:58,960 --> 01:12:02,120 Speaker 1: You're you're your performance is obviously a function of your 1438 01:12:02,160 --> 01:12:05,960 Speaker 1: circumstance to a certain extent, George, we really appreciate time. 1439 01:12:06,560 --> 01:12:09,000 Speaker 1: I definitely want to do this again down the road. Um, 1440 01:12:09,160 --> 01:12:11,280 Speaker 1: enjoy the season, will be in touch. I might have 1441 01:12:11,320 --> 01:12:13,000 Speaker 1: to send you some extion to follow up questions over 1442 01:12:13,040 --> 01:12:14,639 Speaker 1: the course of the year. Things pop into my head, 1443 01:12:14,640 --> 01:12:17,559 Speaker 1: if you don't mind. And we really appreciate the information 1444 01:12:17,600 --> 01:12:19,839 Speaker 1: and the education for the giant fans. Now, thank you George. 1445 01:12:19,840 --> 01:12:22,519 Speaker 1: It was really great. No, this was awesome, and be 1446 01:12:22,560 --> 01:12:24,280 Speaker 1: happy to be on again. And if you guys in 1447 01:12:24,320 --> 01:12:26,479 Speaker 1: the meantime, I want to hear more of our stuff. 1448 01:12:26,520 --> 01:12:30,040 Speaker 1: The PFF Forecast, which is our analytics podcast, will keep 1449 01:12:30,080 --> 01:12:33,000 Speaker 1: you guys going until we meet again. Very good, absolutely, George, 1450 01:12:33,040 --> 01:12:35,479 Speaker 1: great stuff, Thanks so much. Enjoy your summer. Thanks George. 1451 01:12:35,880 --> 01:12:38,240 Speaker 1: Thanks Scott, have a great one here too. Thank you, George. 1452 01:12:38,280 --> 01:12:41,280 Speaker 1: Say and I think I got that good, he said? 1453 01:12:41,400 --> 01:12:43,240 Speaker 1: He said, I think I think I nailed that one 1454 01:12:43,439 --> 01:12:46,120 Speaker 1: for Pro Football Focus talking to Football Analytics. So did 1455 01:12:46,120 --> 01:12:48,800 Speaker 1: you learn something, Jeff. It's actually you could sit here 1456 01:12:48,800 --> 01:12:51,559 Speaker 1: and talk this for hours. Well, I went fifteen minutes 1457 01:12:51,600 --> 01:12:56,120 Speaker 1: longer than I should have because you know, the listeners 1458 01:12:56,160 --> 01:12:57,840 Speaker 1: and and everybody got it much out of I did, 1459 01:12:57,840 --> 01:13:01,000 Speaker 1: because it's really interesting the way that you could see 1460 01:13:01,000 --> 01:13:03,839 Speaker 1: how analytics play a big part in how to predict 1461 01:13:03,960 --> 01:13:06,200 Speaker 1: the games. By the way when he explains how they 1462 01:13:06,240 --> 01:13:08,920 Speaker 1: get there, it really does make sense. It's really amazing. 1463 01:13:08,920 --> 01:13:11,680 Speaker 1: And I would imagine that you know, listened, with the 1464 01:13:11,680 --> 01:13:14,120 Speaker 1: way that football is and with gambling and this all 1465 01:13:14,120 --> 01:13:15,519 Speaker 1: the stuff, you could just see how all of this 1466 01:13:15,560 --> 01:13:17,840 Speaker 1: stuff comes into effect with how the health, how the 1467 01:13:17,880 --> 01:13:20,519 Speaker 1: game is watched, and how it's played. Because I will 1468 01:13:20,560 --> 01:13:23,000 Speaker 1: tell you, Uh, if you're not a team just looking 1469 01:13:23,040 --> 01:13:26,719 Speaker 1: at this type of analytical uh data, you've got something wrong. 1470 01:13:26,800 --> 01:13:29,160 Speaker 1: You gotta this is this can not to say that 1471 01:13:29,200 --> 01:13:31,519 Speaker 1: you have to game plan around every dred percent of it, 1472 01:13:31,600 --> 01:13:33,360 Speaker 1: but it could be a tipping point the hey, you know, 1473 01:13:33,439 --> 01:13:35,800 Speaker 1: why is this team so good on third down? It 1474 01:13:35,880 --> 01:13:38,320 Speaker 1: might not be the Bible, but it's certainly something you 1475 01:13:38,360 --> 01:13:40,400 Speaker 1: need to look at exactly. So it's very It's a 1476 01:13:40,479 --> 01:13:42,960 Speaker 1: very interesting topic and one that we'll talk more about. 1477 01:13:43,040 --> 01:13:46,800 Speaker 1: And uh, yeah, great, great guests today, Really good, Thank you, Jeff, 1478 01:13:46,840 --> 01:13:49,519 Speaker 1: You're welcome. All right, everybody, remember no show on Friday, 1479 01:13:49,560 --> 01:13:51,719 Speaker 1: which is tomorrow. No shows the week of the fourth 1480 01:13:51,760 --> 01:13:54,599 Speaker 1: of July, so will be back on the Monday after 1481 01:13:54,640 --> 01:13:57,680 Speaker 1: the fourth of July, which is July nine, and we'll 1482 01:13:57,720 --> 01:14:00,519 Speaker 1: continue our preview matchup series that I believe we have 1483 01:14:00,560 --> 01:14:02,839 Speaker 1: the Cowboys and the Texans. We do our little Texas 1484 01:14:02,840 --> 01:14:06,880 Speaker 1: to step with Paul Detino and I enjoy the next 1485 01:14:07,040 --> 01:14:11,360 Speaker 1: uh ten days or so the Independence Day. Be safe 1486 01:14:11,800 --> 01:14:14,679 Speaker 1: and we'll see you on July nine. Have a great day, everybody,