WEBVTT - Mark Bohlund on Africa and the Global Economy (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Mark Boland, I want you to come in and tell

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<v Speaker 1>us a little bit about Africa just in the context

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<v Speaker 1>of the global economy, and maybe just tell people a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit about what you do and how you spend

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<v Speaker 1>your time, because you're analyzing economies that are growing in

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<v Speaker 1>some cases much faster than developed economies, but they're growing

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<v Speaker 1>from a lower base. Yes, I mean that's the case

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<v Speaker 1>I've previously mentioned, you know, talking to clients that for

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<v Speaker 1>as sub South Africa as a whole, we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>see quite a sharp slow down in growth from four

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<v Speaker 1>to five evens up to seven percent over the past

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen years to this year. It's not going to be

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<v Speaker 1>that much more than maybe one to one and a

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<v Speaker 1>half percent. But this is not really reflective for subside

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<v Speaker 1>Africa as a whole, because you just dominated the The

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<v Speaker 1>aggregate GDP number is dominated by Nigeria, which is in recession,

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<v Speaker 1>and South Africa, which has more or less zero growth

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<v Speaker 1>this year in Angola, which there's not that much data

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<v Speaker 1>out on Angola on a regular basis. So these are

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<v Speaker 1>three economies that together account for sixty of g D

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<v Speaker 1>two GDP, but only about of the population. So I

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<v Speaker 1>mean the majority of African countries are still growing at

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<v Speaker 1>a relatively healthy clip. And that's especially the case for

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<v Speaker 1>the for the smaller economies or the poorer economies that

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<v Speaker 1>now catching up with the more development. Two parts number one,

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<v Speaker 1>what slowed subs here Africa so short, so sharply in

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<v Speaker 1>a nutshell, And what is driving the smaller economies to

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<v Speaker 1>healthy growth rates at this point? Well, what's slowing the

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<v Speaker 1>economies and Nigeria Angola is really a sort of deflation

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<v Speaker 1>of the commodity boom. The you know, the sharp rising

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<v Speaker 1>oil price just bought brought in a lot of revenue

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<v Speaker 1>which unfortunately was not invested in infrastructure, was not saved.

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<v Speaker 1>So this kind of in a way almost automatically stimulates

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<v Speaker 1>service demands and a little non tradeable sector and that

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<v Speaker 1>is now dropping sharply. But there are in majority of

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<v Speaker 1>countries actually benefit from lower ngury prices. It's a big,

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<v Speaker 1>big import item. It's more money they can spend on

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<v Speaker 1>other items. So this is what you're seeing in Tanzania

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<v Speaker 1>and other economies. That's the general story. I know that

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<v Speaker 1>you wanted to talk a little bit about the economy

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<v Speaker 1>of the Congo. Yes, this is a democratic Republic of Congo.

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<v Speaker 1>Congo chin Kinshasa. So it's the third biggest country by

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<v Speaker 1>population after Nigeria and Ethiopia, and a country that has

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<v Speaker 1>a very troubled history, that had a civil war from

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<v Speaker 1>the late nineties into the early two thous and that

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, no one really knows how many people died.

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<v Speaker 1>It was, I mean three to five million, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of them in starvation. Uh and it and

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<v Speaker 1>it involved a lot of the neighboring countries around the

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<v Speaker 1>Uganda and Amibia, Angola. And now it's heading up to

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<v Speaker 1>elections later this year according to the constitution, but the

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<v Speaker 1>government is holding out saying that they need to update

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<v Speaker 1>the census to electoral role to hold these elections. And

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<v Speaker 1>the opposition is is against this, saying this is just

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<v Speaker 1>a stalling tactic to keep the current president, Joseph Kabila

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<v Speaker 1>in office. And now in the last few days this

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<v Speaker 1>has turned violent in Kinshasa. I'm not sure what the

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<v Speaker 1>latest death toll is. We're talking fifties sixty people. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>this is this is very tragic, but I think there's

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<v Speaker 1>still a reason to be relatively optimistic and in the

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<v Speaker 1>sense that we're not going to see a return to

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<v Speaker 1>the kind of armed conflict that you had a decade ago. Alright, well,

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<v Speaker 1>Mark bollow me. Thank you for joining us. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>a treat to have you here in New York City.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, Pim spent a lot of time yesterday at

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<v Speaker 1>the Big Africa Summit at the Plaza Hotel here in

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<v Speaker 1>New York City. We also think Helena should let Giva

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<v Speaker 1>from our Bloomberg intelligence team here in New York. She

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<v Speaker 1>also contributes to the Bloomberg brief on economics. I'm Kathleen

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<v Speaker 1>Hayes along with Pim Fox, and this is Bloomberg. Then

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<v Speaker 1>they