1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,639 Speaker 1: Mark Boland, I want you to come in and tell 2 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 1: us a little bit about Africa just in the context 3 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: of the global economy, and maybe just tell people a 4 00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: little bit about what you do and how you spend 5 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: your time, because you're analyzing economies that are growing in 6 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: some cases much faster than developed economies, but they're growing 7 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 1: from a lower base. Yes, I mean that's the case 8 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: I've previously mentioned, you know, talking to clients that for 9 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: as sub South Africa as a whole, we're going to 10 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 1: see quite a sharp slow down in growth from four 11 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 1: to five evens up to seven percent over the past 12 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 1: fifteen years to this year. It's not going to be 13 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:39,199 Speaker 1: that much more than maybe one to one and a 14 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: half percent. But this is not really reflective for subside 15 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 1: Africa as a whole, because you just dominated the The 16 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: aggregate GDP number is dominated by Nigeria, which is in recession, 17 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 1: and South Africa, which has more or less zero growth 18 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 1: this year in Angola, which there's not that much data 19 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: out on Angola on a regular basis. So these are 20 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,400 Speaker 1: three economies that together account for sixty of g D 21 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 1: two GDP, but only about of the population. So I 22 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 1: mean the majority of African countries are still growing at 23 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 1: a relatively healthy clip. And that's especially the case for 24 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 1: the for the smaller economies or the poorer economies that 25 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: now catching up with the more development. Two parts number one, 26 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: what slowed subs here Africa so short, so sharply in 27 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: a nutshell, And what is driving the smaller economies to 28 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: healthy growth rates at this point? Well, what's slowing the 29 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 1: economies and Nigeria Angola is really a sort of deflation 30 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: of the commodity boom. The you know, the sharp rising 31 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 1: oil price just bought brought in a lot of revenue 32 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,919 Speaker 1: which unfortunately was not invested in infrastructure, was not saved. 33 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 1: So this kind of in a way almost automatically stimulates 34 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 1: service demands and a little non tradeable sector and that 35 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 1: is now dropping sharply. But there are in majority of 36 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 1: countries actually benefit from lower ngury prices. It's a big, 37 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: big import item. It's more money they can spend on 38 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 1: other items. So this is what you're seeing in Tanzania 39 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 1: and other economies. That's the general story. I know that 40 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 1: you wanted to talk a little bit about the economy 41 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 1: of the Congo. Yes, this is a democratic Republic of Congo. 42 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 1: Congo chin Kinshasa. So it's the third biggest country by 43 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: population after Nigeria and Ethiopia, and a country that has 44 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 1: a very troubled history, that had a civil war from 45 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,239 Speaker 1: the late nineties into the early two thous and that 46 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 1: I mean, no one really knows how many people died. 47 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: It was, I mean three to five million, I mean 48 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 1: a lot of them in starvation. Uh and it and 49 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: it involved a lot of the neighboring countries around the 50 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 1: Uganda and Amibia, Angola. And now it's heading up to 51 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: elections later this year according to the constitution, but the 52 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 1: government is holding out saying that they need to update 53 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:05,519 Speaker 1: the census to electoral role to hold these elections. And 54 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 1: the opposition is is against this, saying this is just 55 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: a stalling tactic to keep the current president, Joseph Kabila 56 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 1: in office. And now in the last few days this 57 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:19,799 Speaker 1: has turned violent in Kinshasa. I'm not sure what the 58 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 1: latest death toll is. We're talking fifties sixty people. I mean, 59 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 1: this is this is very tragic, but I think there's 60 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:30,079 Speaker 1: still a reason to be relatively optimistic and in the 61 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:32,239 Speaker 1: sense that we're not going to see a return to 62 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 1: the kind of armed conflict that you had a decade ago. Alright, well, 63 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 1: Mark bollow me. Thank you for joining us. So it's 64 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: a treat to have you here in New York City. 65 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: Of course, Pim spent a lot of time yesterday at 66 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: the Big Africa Summit at the Plaza Hotel here in 67 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 1: New York City. We also think Helena should let Giva 68 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 1: from our Bloomberg intelligence team here in New York. She 69 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: also contributes to the Bloomberg brief on economics. I'm Kathleen 70 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 1: Hayes along with Pim Fox, and this is Bloomberg. Then 71 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 1: they