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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Thursday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Perrelt. You guys can follow me across all of

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Speaker 1: my socials at Sports Talk mattin Oh my gosh, it ended.

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Speaker 1: I thought we'd never get back on the winning track.

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Speaker 1: Not only did we snap the six game losing streak,

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Speaker 1: but we swept the board last night a three and

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Speaker 1: oh Mark the blue Jays get the over for us.

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Speaker 1: There's our first winning college basketball one in three now

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Speaker 1: thanks to my creating blue Jays, we got the market

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Speaker 1: in under that came in. He had twenty five points

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Speaker 1: in noah sists, so we got a little fortunate there.

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Speaker 1: And then ball State last drive touchdown to win and

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Speaker 1: cover for us. We go up three units and just

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Speaker 1: like that we are up for the week, but better

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Speaker 1: than being down for us here on a Thursday. So

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Speaker 1: I have got four bets for us coming up here

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Speaker 1: in just one second. Thursday Night football focused in one

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Speaker 1: NBA player prop because we continue to do well with

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Speaker 1: the NBA player props. It's just, you know, the prop

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Speaker 1: bit cheat sheets too good not to keep on firing.

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Speaker 1: So let's get into it with the prop bet. Nothing

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Speaker 1: on hockey and nothing on college basketball coming up for

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Speaker 1: us here today, but a lot on football, a lot

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Speaker 1: on Denver hosting the Las Vegas Raiders. But before we

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Speaker 1: on right now. There's always something to bet on. If

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Speaker 1: All right, so let's go over some numbers here for

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night football. They're really ugly. All in favor of

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Speaker 1: the Broncos, like all in favor of the Broncos. The

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Speaker 1: Raiders coming off an overtime game in which they lost

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Speaker 1: to the Jaguars, teams on short rest, so they're going

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Speaker 1: here to Thursday Sunday to Thursday short rest and their

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Speaker 1: opponent is not going off of an overtime. Denver did

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Speaker 1: not go to overtime last week in their win over Houston.

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Speaker 1: The teams in the Raiders' position are twenty six and

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Speaker 1: forty seven straight up and twenty three forty seven and

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Speaker 1: three against the number over the last twenty years. When

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Speaker 1: that team is on the road, this is where it

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Speaker 1: gets nasty nine and twenty seven straight up, ten twenty

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Speaker 1: five and one against the number. It's even uglier if

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Speaker 1: you take the overtime team on short rest playing in

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Speaker 1: primetime on Thursday Night football. The Raiders in this spot

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Speaker 1: teams are six and twenty one straight up and four

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Speaker 1: in twenty three against the number. Now, bow Knicks has

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Speaker 1: been very good at home and as a favorite. This

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Speaker 1: will be the fifth time that bow Knicks has started

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Speaker 1: a night game in primetime. He's three and one straight

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Speaker 1: up and three and one against the number, two and

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Speaker 1: oh straight up and two and oh against the number

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Speaker 1: at home in Denver in primetime, covering by an average

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Speaker 1: of ten points. The best Bronco quarterback at home against

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Speaker 1: the spread in primetime, Peyton Manning went seven to two

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Speaker 1: and one. Bow Nix is now two and o. Knicks

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Speaker 1: has made twenty seven starts in the NFL as a

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Speaker 1: career starter. He's ten and four against the spread as

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Speaker 1: a favorite. He's six and seven against the spread as

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Speaker 1: an underdog. But this number feels too heavy. I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying that I have cool though I've warmed up from

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Speaker 1: the ice cold six game stretch. Okay, so I have

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Speaker 1: sort of a strategic way of how I'm gonna play

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Speaker 1: this game. I think nine and a half points is

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Speaker 1: too many points. I really do. I think it's too heavy.

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Speaker 1: The Raiders have not been good defensively. Okay, this game

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Speaker 1: could very well fly over, even though there's money coming

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Speaker 1: in on the under. Not sure. But when the Raiders

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Speaker 1: have brock Bauers back, and they will have Brock Bowers

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Speaker 1: back tonight, I mean, this is a guy with three touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: thirteen targets, and twelve catches. Vegas average is about twenty

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Speaker 1: one points a game. When they have brock Bauers playing,

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Speaker 1: they are a different offense. So you know, I think

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Speaker 1: there is a opportunity here for the Raiders to either

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Speaker 1: backdoor or to keep this game close. Okay, it's a

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Speaker 1: divisional game on a short week for both teams, and

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Speaker 1: the Broncos don't blow anybody out. Let's be frank. They've

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Speaker 1: played a lot of tight games this season. The first

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Speaker 1: bet is to take the Raiders at plus nine and

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Speaker 1: a half for one point one units. However, you can

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Speaker 1: shop in the market and there are nine and a

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Speaker 1: halfs and there are also eight and a halfs. So

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Speaker 1: I want to go to the eight and a half

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Speaker 1: book and I want to do a six point teaser.

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Speaker 1: I want to pull it down from eight and a

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Speaker 1: half to two and a half. What we're looking for

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Speaker 1: is a Bronco win by three to nine points. If

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Speaker 1: that happens, we will be live for both bets to cash.

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Speaker 1: Now we need another side of the teaser, but hold on.

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Speaker 1: I just think the Raiders have a shot if Geno

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Speaker 1: Smith does not turn the football over. I think Geno

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Speaker 1: Smith can play better than what he has in primetime

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Speaker 1: over the last two seasons, Gino Smith has started five

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Speaker 1: games in primetime. He's one in four straight up in

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Speaker 1: oh and five against the spread. No other quarterback is

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Speaker 1: even oh and three or worse in primetime. Overall, Geno

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Speaker 1: Smith in primetime is four and thirteen straight up oh

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Speaker 1: and seven straight up against divisional opponents, the worst mark

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Speaker 1: since two thousand and three of one hundred and seventy

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Speaker 1: two quarterbacks. He's lost a primetime game against a divisional

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Speaker 1: opponent for three different teams, the Jets, the Seahawks, and

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Speaker 1: the Raiders. Geno Smith cannot lose this game. Doesn't win it,

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Speaker 1: just don't lose it by turning the football over and

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Speaker 1: throwing interceptions. But again, divisional game, short week. I feel

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Speaker 1: like this number should be seven or seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's nine and a half. I'm gonna hold my nose.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go ahead and say forget it. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: close my eyes your close your eyes special and take

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Speaker 1: the dog at plus nine and a half. However, that

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Speaker 1: number two two, I'm gonna tease it down from eight

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Speaker 1: and a half to two and a half and take

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Speaker 1: the Broncos. Okay, so two bets on one game. We're

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Speaker 1: going Raiders plus nine and a half, and then we're

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Speaker 1: gonna take the Broncos minus two and a half. What

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Speaker 1: will be the other side of the teaser. I'm a

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Speaker 1: glutton for punishment. We tried to tease the Lions last week,

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Speaker 1: and the Lions lost the game outright. However, the stats

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Speaker 1: for the Lions coming off of a loss straight up tremendous.

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Speaker 1: Jared Goff and Dan Campbell together off of a loss

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Speaker 1: straight up are twenty one and eight against the spread.

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Speaker 1: They have won and covered twelve games in a row

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Speaker 1: dating back to November one of twenty twenty two, and

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Speaker 1: Jared Goff's career coming in playing outdoors off a straight

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Speaker 1: up loss, he's just nine to fourteen and one against

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Speaker 1: the spread. But it's a revenge spot here against the

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Speaker 1: team and the Commanders with the quarterback in Marcus Mariota

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Speaker 1: who has not played very well this season, Dan Quinn

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Speaker 1: with a backup with he was two and zero ats

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Speaker 1: with a backup quarterback, but both of that with the

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Speaker 1: Falcons now here with Washington backup quarterback Marcus Mariota this year,

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Speaker 1: oh and two straight up, oh and two against the number.

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Speaker 1: But the number is big, Okay, it's it's a pretty

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Speaker 1: large number. It's eight. Let's just pull it down. We

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Speaker 1: just need the straight up win by three points or

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Speaker 1: higher for the Lions to come in on here. And

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Speaker 1: I cannot see the Lions losing back to back games.

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Speaker 1: After what happened last week, I think the Lions are

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Speaker 1: gonna go ahead and bounce back here. I know they're

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Speaker 1: not great outside, but you know the Lions. Since twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty three, the Lions have played twenty five games where

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Speaker 1: they lost outright to that opponent in the previous matchup.

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Speaker 1: Detroit's twenty and five straight up, nineteen and six ATS

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Speaker 1: in those games, four and oh straight up ats, four

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Speaker 1: and oh straight up and ats in twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: twelve and one straight up, and ten and three against

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Speaker 1: the number since the start of last season. Revenge spot

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Speaker 1: Lions come in minus two, so Raiders plus nine and

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Speaker 1: a half. And then we're coming in with the Broncos

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Speaker 1: and the Lions at minus one twenty five Broncos minus

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Speaker 1: two and a half, Lions minus two. All of the

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Speaker 1: numbers say that the Broncos will win and cover. Let's

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Speaker 1: just say they win by seven points. That's the ideal situation.

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Speaker 1: Broncos by seven, Broncos Broncos by three. That's fine. That's

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Speaker 1: why I'm willing to play the pay the little extra

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Speaker 1: juice there at minus one twenty five because I'm not

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Speaker 1: in love with the idea of backing the Raiders without

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Speaker 1: a little insurance. So trying to create my own middle

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Speaker 1: here with that. With that play, Okay, Raiders plus nine

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Speaker 1: and a half, tease it down at two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Sorry if you're hearing the cat who just opened the

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Speaker 1: door and came in? So prop bet, let's talk talk

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Speaker 1: JK Dobbins. Prop bet cheat sheet has this as a

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Speaker 1: sixty four percent cover probability. It is a four star play.

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Speaker 1: There are no five star plays here tonight for this

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Speaker 1: game on Thursday Night, which is interesting. Seventeen percent expected value.

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Speaker 1: This has hit in two of the last four games

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Speaker 1: for JK. Dobbins. It is his rushing and his receiving.

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Speaker 1: The number is seventy six and a half at most books.

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Speaker 1: Rushing and receiving against Houston he had fifty nine, but

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Speaker 1: Houston has a really good defense. The Raiders do not

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Speaker 1: up against Dallas a poor defense. One hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: one rushing and receiving for JK. Dobbins. Against the Giants

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Speaker 1: in average defense, he had eighty going over this number

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Speaker 1: as well. Against the Jets decent defense, he had forty

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Speaker 1: under this number. Philadelphia have pretty good defense. He had

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Speaker 1: eighty four against Philadelphia Cincinnati bad defense. He had one

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Speaker 1: hundred and five. I would expect him to be around

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Speaker 1: the Cincinnati and Dallas number one, one, one oh five,

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Speaker 1: somewhere in that range. We're gonna take JK. Dobbins rushing

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Speaker 1: and receiving yards and we're going to go over seventy

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Speaker 1: six and a half rushing and receiving for JK. Dobbins

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Speaker 1: of the Broncos at minus one ten for one point

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Speaker 1: one units, and we have to have an MBA prop bet.

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Speaker 1: It's been too profitable for us. It's been too good.

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Speaker 1: Royce O'Neil, the Clippers are at the Phoenix Suns coming

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Speaker 1: up here for tonight. Royce O'Neil is at home. We're

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Speaker 1: looking at Royce O'Neil points and rebounds at fourteen and

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Speaker 1: a half prop bet, Chia chet is projecting eleven point

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Speaker 1: one for Royce O'Neil. This is a seventy seven percent

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Speaker 1: cover probability, a plus thirty eight percent expected value, and

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Speaker 1: a five star play on the prop bet cheat sheet

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Speaker 1: as well. This was very profitable for us yesterday because

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Speaker 1: you had four straight bets that went over and then

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Speaker 1: one under. For marketing, it's the same thing here for

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Speaker 1: Royce O'Neil in State was at fourteen, so the hook

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Speaker 1: got us there. The previous four games he went over

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Speaker 1: this number of fourteen and a half for points and rebounds,

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Speaker 1: but prop bet cheat sheet likes this to go under

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Speaker 1: under fourteen and a half. He has missed the last

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Speaker 1: two prop bets fifteen and a half and seventeen and

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Speaker 1: a half. That was the number for points and rebounds

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Speaker 1: he had fourteen and seventeen over the last two games.

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Speaker 1: Let's go Roys O'Neil under fourteen and a half points

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Speaker 1: and rebounds coming up here for us on the prop

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Speaker 1: bet cheat sheet. So Raiders plus nine and a half. JK.

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Speaker 1: Dobbins over seventy six and a half rushing and receiving

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Speaker 1: the Broncos teased down to two and a half with

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Speaker 1: the Lions and minus two on Sunday in Roys O'Neil

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Speaker 1: under fourteen and a half points and rebounds at minus

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Speaker 1: one twenty four coming up here for today now if

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Speaker 1: you want more as to what's going to happen tonight

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Speaker 1: on Thursday night football and NBA college basketball and NHL plays,

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Speaker 1: plus a full breakdown of the slate from a betting

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Speaker 1: perspective for Sunday's NFL games. Join me coming up later

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Speaker 1: on today for The Bostonian Versus the Book. You can

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Speaker 1: search at Boston Versus the Book on x Twitter and

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Speaker 1: on YouTube one o'clock Eastern time start, but it's always

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Speaker 1: available on demand. Plus there is an audio podcast. Just

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Speaker 1: go into Apple or Spotify and search the Bostonian Versus

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Speaker 1: the Book and you will see the podcast. It's about

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Speaker 1: an hour and twenty minute podcast. Every single day, we'll

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Speaker 1: break down a ton of football. Tonight's game between the

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Speaker 1: Raiders and the Broncos, but also what will happen on

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Speaker 1: Sunday for Week ten of the NFL. At Boston Versus

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Speaker 1: the Book to go, search it one pm Eastern time

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Speaker 1: live on the YouTube channel at Boston Versus the Book.

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Speaker 1: Mine's Matt Parolt. You guys and follow me across all

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Speaker 1: my socials ad sports doc Matt every morning wherever you

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Speaker 1: guys get your podcasts. It is the Daily Juice, then

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Speaker 1: The Center Center, the Centers