1
00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:04,559
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts.

2
00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,840
Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

3
00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:22,000
Speaker 2: people over for a second.

4
00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:32,320
Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network podcast presented by the FanDuel Sportsbook.

5
00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:36,960
Speaker 1: We are here for your UFC betting preview on April

6
00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,440
Speaker 1: twenty ninth, coming to you from Las Vegas. We have

7
00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:45,760
Speaker 1: UFC Fight Night song Versus Simon, Brendan Glasheen, joined by

8
00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:50,120
Speaker 1: our UFC betting expert Sean Zilo and Billy Ward. Most

9
00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,519
Speaker 1: Fridays we're here. All goes down at the UFC Apex

10
00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:56,920
Speaker 1: Center in Vegas. On Saturday, we'll look ahead to our

11
00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:00,680
Speaker 1: favorite the guy's favorite props. Underdogs will also work in

12
00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:04,280
Speaker 1: some best bets. As we normally do, we preview two

13
00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:09,280
Speaker 1: fights extensively, including the main event, Ricky Simone Song You Dong,

14
00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:13,440
Speaker 1: Sean Zerrillo, how do we want to bet this fight?

15
00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:16,319
Speaker 1: And what jumps out to you? Just in terms of

16
00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:19,040
Speaker 1: when you're picking it apart trying to find the proper angles,

17
00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:20,960
Speaker 1: what about the fight jumps out to Yeah?

18
00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,600
Speaker 3: So this was originally scheduled to be a three round fight.

19
00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,880
Speaker 3: Moving back to five rounds probably helps Ricky Simone. He

20
00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:32,400
Speaker 3: is the better cardio. More wrestling all of the grappling upside. Essentially,

21
00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:35,440
Speaker 3: Song you dong the better striker, faster hands, and I

22
00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:39,880
Speaker 3: think relative to Ricky's previous opponents, is much more physically strong.

23
00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:43,400
Speaker 3: He's a really good athlete, much younger or not much

24
00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:45,920
Speaker 3: younger fighter, but the younger fighter, and still on his

25
00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:48,760
Speaker 3: way up and improving working with teen Alpha Male, improving

26
00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,320
Speaker 3: his takedown defense. We've seen him taken down in the past.

27
00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,240
Speaker 3: Tends to happen later on in the fights though, so

28
00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,640
Speaker 3: the first two to three rounds. I do expect Song

29
00:01:57,720 --> 00:01:59,920
Speaker 3: to have a two to one lead after the three

30
00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,640
Speaker 3: rounds headed into the championship rounds with the idea that

31
00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:05,400
Speaker 3: maybe he can split one of the final two rounds

32
00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:07,640
Speaker 3: and take a decision. But he does possess all of

33
00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:09,840
Speaker 3: the finishing upside as well, and generally, when I'm weighing

34
00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,440
Speaker 3: these fights, I want to favor the fighter who either

35
00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:16,040
Speaker 3: has all the finishing upside, all of the grappling upside,

36
00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:18,800
Speaker 3: or all of the cardio upside. I would say simone

37
00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,120
Speaker 3: does have two of those three, does have the grappling upside,

38
00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,960
Speaker 3: the wrestling upside in addition to the cardio factor down

39
00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,760
Speaker 3: the stretch, But I would say in songs last fight

40
00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,520
Speaker 3: against Cory Sandhagen, the way things were trending in the

41
00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:32,240
Speaker 3: fourth round, I was actually very glad that fight got

42
00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:34,400
Speaker 3: stoppeddue at a cut stoppage because I had bets on

43
00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:37,520
Speaker 3: Sanhagen and it seemed like Song was working his way

44
00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,440
Speaker 3: back into the fight as the fight was going longer.

45
00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:42,919
Speaker 3: So his cardio actually kind of impressed me in that fight,

46
00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:45,680
Speaker 3: was taking down a couple of times. I do expect

47
00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,680
Speaker 3: the longer that this fight goes with Ricky Simone, Simone

48
00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,600
Speaker 3: eventually takes him down in the later rounds, if not earlier,

49
00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:53,720
Speaker 3: and maybe gets some top time. But in terms of

50
00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,520
Speaker 3: the damage optics, who's going to be hitting harder, Who's

51
00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,480
Speaker 3: going to be landing the more significant strikes, not more

52
00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:03,079
Speaker 3: significant strikes, but the more damaging strikes over the course

53
00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,240
Speaker 3: of fifteen minutes, I think all that points to Song.

54
00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:07,240
Speaker 3: You dog, So Song on the money line plus one

55
00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:08,960
Speaker 3: hundred plus one oh five, I'd like it at any

56
00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:09,919
Speaker 3: plus money number.

57
00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:11,440
Speaker 4: He's my pick.

58
00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:14,640
Speaker 3: I do expect a very competitive fight, though, and I

59
00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:18,239
Speaker 3: think if you're looking for the best angle to bet Simone,

60
00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,480
Speaker 3: I would probably target him live after round two or

61
00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:24,359
Speaker 3: after round three, maybe he loses the first couple of rounds,

62
00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:26,440
Speaker 3: He's down two to one heading into the fourth round,

63
00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:28,680
Speaker 3: and you get a nice, juicy plus money number on

64
00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,399
Speaker 3: Ricky after round two round three. So that's how I'd

65
00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:33,560
Speaker 3: look to bet the favorite. But pre fight, I definitely

66
00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:34,960
Speaker 3: think Song is the side.

67
00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,520
Speaker 1: Okay, excellent and Billy that you break this down in

68
00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,360
Speaker 1: your Luck ratings article available at Action Network. It's been

69
00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:43,720
Speaker 1: up now for a couple of days. That the elevation

70
00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,880
Speaker 1: of this event to the main event is key, as

71
00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:49,840
Speaker 1: Zarrillo mapped out with a couple of extra rounds here,

72
00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,040
Speaker 1: and that's why you also like Song, but from a

73
00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:54,000
Speaker 1: different perspective.

74
00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I came to the same conclusion as Zerrilla,

75
00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:01,800
Speaker 5: but with slightly different to get there. I actually think

76
00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,240
Speaker 5: the five rounds help Song a little bit. Both guys

77
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,640
Speaker 5: have good cardio. We've seen it from both of them.

78
00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,400
Speaker 5: You know, A Song went four rounds against Sanhagan. Simon

79
00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:11,360
Speaker 5: has not had a five round fight in the UFC,

80
00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:13,560
Speaker 5: but he won one. I think to punch his ticket

81
00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:15,520
Speaker 5: to the UFC. He won a five round championship fight.

82
00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:19,960
Speaker 5: But wrestling, especially continuing to wrestle, is just a lot

83
00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,560
Speaker 5: more taxing from a cardio standpoint than boxing. You know,

84
00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:26,200
Speaker 5: Olympic wrestling matches are nine minutes. In Championship boxing matches

85
00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:28,480
Speaker 5: are thirty six minutes. So when we got one guy

86
00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:30,359
Speaker 5: who's going to stand there and try to throw heavy punches,

87
00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,840
Speaker 5: that just takes a lot less effort and energy than

88
00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,800
Speaker 5: trying to wrestle wrestle wrestle the whole time. So if

89
00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:37,680
Speaker 5: you know, Simon gets taked down early, but kind of

90
00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:38,920
Speaker 5: he's going to use a lot more of his gay

91
00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:41,760
Speaker 5: gas tank than Song is. Plus, Simone needs to continue

92
00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,080
Speaker 5: to win this fight in each and every round. He

93
00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,159
Speaker 5: needs to control the fight. He needs to, you know,

94
00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:48,400
Speaker 5: get to the positions he need to be. Song just

95
00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:50,200
Speaker 5: needs to land one punch. So if it gets to

96
00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:53,120
Speaker 5: the later rounds, both guys are kind of gassed. I'd

97
00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:54,839
Speaker 5: rather be on the guy who just needs to land

98
00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,400
Speaker 5: one shot rather than the guy who needs to control

99
00:04:57,440 --> 00:04:59,320
Speaker 5: the round. That's where Sean and I see it kind

100
00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:01,640
Speaker 5: of the same way. Is gonna land the more damaging shots,

101
00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,039
Speaker 5: you know. So I'm also playing the knockout odds at

102
00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,039
Speaker 5: plus two to ten. I'm gonna have both the money

103
00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,680
Speaker 5: line and the knockout. I think it's probably the likelier

104
00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,120
Speaker 5: way that Song wins this, even if it's a later one,

105
00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,640
Speaker 5: just by you know, accumulating damage over the course of

106
00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,120
Speaker 5: it rather than one big shot. And at Shoe pointed out,

107
00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:18,960
Speaker 5: he's just twenty five. Power is kind of one of

108
00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:22,040
Speaker 5: the slower things to develop for fighters. We've seen him

109
00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:24,520
Speaker 5: pick up knockouts in half of his UFC wins already.

110
00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,640
Speaker 5: His knockdown rate is about twice the whole UFC average,

111
00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:30,160
Speaker 5: even including heavier fighters. And to do all that at

112
00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,000
Speaker 5: twenty five, when you're still getting a little bit stronger,

113
00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:34,479
Speaker 5: still getting some of that man strength, I think, you know,

114
00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,240
Speaker 5: there's a lot more good things to come from him

115
00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:37,000
Speaker 5: in terms of power.

116
00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:39,840
Speaker 3: Just before we jump off of the band weights here,

117
00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:42,000
Speaker 3: I do want to comment because we saw Rob Debashvili

118
00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:45,000
Speaker 3: just completely wipe out Peter Yon with a grappling heavy

119
00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:47,640
Speaker 3: game plan over the course of twenty five minutes relatively recently.

120
00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,240
Speaker 4: That was an outlier performance.

121
00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:50,560
Speaker 1: You know.

122
00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:52,880
Speaker 3: That is what Ricky Simone wants to do is just

123
00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:56,040
Speaker 3: sort of suffocate Song up against the cage or take

124
00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:57,880
Speaker 3: him down over the course of twenty five minutes and

125
00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,840
Speaker 3: keep doing it and shoot five takedowns around I don't

126
00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:02,960
Speaker 3: think anybody on the planet can keep up with the

127
00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:05,680
Speaker 3: pace that Robbed Debashvili set in that fight. That was

128
00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,360
Speaker 3: a unique performance. I don't think you're gonna get that

129
00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:12,840
Speaker 3: kind of sustained pace over twenty five minutes by Ricky here.

130
00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:16,240
Speaker 3: So maybe he doesn't in burse, but to win three rounds,

131
00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:18,839
Speaker 3: four rounds comfortably with that sort of game plan against

132
00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,080
Speaker 3: the guy who hits much harder and is much more

133
00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:22,160
Speaker 3: durable than you is tough.

134
00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:26,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, if you guys haven't grappled ever, taking someone down

135
00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:29,400
Speaker 5: is like the most taxing thing you can do, just once, Like,

136
00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:31,200
Speaker 5: just try to go do it once against anyone who

137
00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:33,600
Speaker 5: knows what they're doing, much less, you know, seven eight

138
00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:35,159
Speaker 5: times over the course of twenty five minutes.

139
00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:35,920
Speaker 4: It's awful.

140
00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,120
Speaker 5: So maybe he's the guy who can do it. But

141
00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:40,240
Speaker 5: when we're getting plus money on the other side, I'm

142
00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:41,159
Speaker 5: gonna bet that he can't.

143
00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:43,960
Speaker 1: Okay, there you go. So there's your breakdown of song

144
00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:47,600
Speaker 1: and Simone coming up on Saturday night. There's your main event.

145
00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,080
Speaker 1: We'll get to the fight of the night in moments. Zarella.

146
00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:53,440
Speaker 1: I've got FanDuel pulled up here. Favorite underdog that you're

147
00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:54,599
Speaker 1: looking towards this weekend.

148
00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Fernando Padilla plus one thirty.

149
00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,640
Speaker 3: I also like him by knockout or TK at plus

150
00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:05,120
Speaker 3: three sixty. This should be a firefight where Padi is

151
00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:08,920
Speaker 3: younger seven years younger to entre each advantage, and he

152
00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,920
Speaker 3: has half the fight history and damage on his chin

153
00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:13,360
Speaker 3: as Julian Rosa.

154
00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:15,200
Speaker 4: I think Julian Rosa's skill for skill is.

155
00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:19,280
Speaker 3: A top fifteen ranked fighter in his division, but he

156
00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:23,800
Speaker 3: has a bit of a wonky chin and he doesn't

157
00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:26,960
Speaker 3: necessarily pursue the grappling upside that he has until he

158
00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,280
Speaker 3: gets hurt. He doesn't go out there like Ricky Simone

159
00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:34,520
Speaker 3: and proactively pursue multiple takedowns per round. He tends to

160
00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,640
Speaker 3: reactively shoot a takedown once you hurt him, so he

161
00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:41,280
Speaker 3: may possess the grappling upside in this fight the grappling advantage.

162
00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:43,560
Speaker 3: Padia is two years younger, though he's faced a high

163
00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:47,760
Speaker 3: level of competition, fought in LFA, CFFC.

164
00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:48,840
Speaker 4: Fought Dan Egay regionally.

165
00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:52,360
Speaker 3: He's faced some really high level guys throughout his regional career,

166
00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:54,360
Speaker 3: even though he's just now making it to the UFC,

167
00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:56,680
Speaker 3: so I think We're going to get a very high

168
00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,080
Speaker 3: variance fight where these two exchange in the middle, and

169
00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:02,680
Speaker 3: Padilla is the younger, with the reach advantage and hits

170
00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:06,760
Speaker 3: just as hard, so giving him the durability advantage in

171
00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:09,600
Speaker 3: what could be a slugfest. I like him at plus money,

172
00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:13,360
Speaker 3: like him by knockout a plus three sixty. And I

173
00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,760
Speaker 3: do think Julian Rosa, if he grapples proactively, can win

174
00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:20,320
Speaker 3: the fight, probably comfortably, but it's not something he typically does.

175
00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,440
Speaker 1: Hey, Padilla down to plus one sixteen as we speak

176
00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:28,320
Speaker 1: to you on this Friday morning over at FanDuel billy

177
00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:29,840
Speaker 1: underdog that jumps out to you.

178
00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:32,960
Speaker 5: Yet not a great card for underdogs in my opinion,

179
00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,319
Speaker 5: especially at this point where some of the value, as

180
00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:37,319
Speaker 5: you just pointed out, has been lost. I kind of

181
00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:40,800
Speaker 5: like Waldo Cortez Acosta. Honestly, a lot of what Zerillo

182
00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,160
Speaker 5: said about Padilla applies here too. He's younger, reach advantage,

183
00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:46,840
Speaker 5: fighting a guy's been through some wars, have been around forever.

184
00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:51,079
Speaker 5: He's fighting Marco's Virgerio Dilima, who is skill for skill,

185
00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:54,280
Speaker 5: like considerably better than he is. Right Like Viggeio Dilmas,

186
00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:57,640
Speaker 5: you know, much more experienced, all that, but Riggeio Dilma

187
00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:00,959
Speaker 5: is almost thirty eight. Viggeio Dilma was im the ultimate

188
00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:04,120
Speaker 5: fighter when Waldo Cortes Acosta was a minor league pitcher

189
00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:06,320
Speaker 5: in the REDS organization, and it's never even had an

190
00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,920
Speaker 5: amateur fight. So at plus one sixty, I'm kind of

191
00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,520
Speaker 5: banking in that Waldo Cortez Acosta has developed a little

192
00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:15,400
Speaker 5: bit more here than we've seen in his last couple

193
00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,800
Speaker 5: of fights. I was a little bit disappointed with both

194
00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:19,959
Speaker 5: of his first two UFC fights. But this is the

195
00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:22,160
Speaker 5: guy who's only been a professional for five ish years,

196
00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:24,440
Speaker 5: only been an amateur MMA fighter for I think six

197
00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:25,800
Speaker 5: or seven. You know, it was the first time he

198
00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:29,079
Speaker 5: ever stepped into a cage. He has a huge athleticism advantage.

199
00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:32,200
Speaker 5: He's bigger, stronger, younger, and it's just a lot easier

200
00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:34,079
Speaker 5: to think of a thirty one year old who's only

201
00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,839
Speaker 5: been training a handful of years as getting much better

202
00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:39,080
Speaker 5: versus a thirty seven year old where we've probably already

203
00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:39,920
Speaker 5: seen his best fights.

204
00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:43,600
Speaker 1: Really, you find it a first five money line play

205
00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,320
Speaker 1: on in this former minor league or what is that

206
00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:47,280
Speaker 1: what you're looking for right now?

207
00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,960
Speaker 3: Yes, so good Cortez Acosta an interesting fighter, right, because

208
00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,079
Speaker 3: you know he does have that pitching background, so you

209
00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:57,240
Speaker 3: would expect him to really like have this powerful lower

210
00:09:57,280 --> 00:09:59,040
Speaker 3: half and to really chuck bombs.

211
00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:00,440
Speaker 4: But he just kind of touched people.

212
00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,480
Speaker 3: It's a lot of like light volume peppering you from

213
00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:05,920
Speaker 3: the outside. Billy said, he does have the reach advantage.

214
00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:09,520
Speaker 3: I think his grappling deficiency, though, could be what cost

215
00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:13,640
Speaker 3: him here. Delima sometimes does pursue the takedown, sometimes he

216
00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:15,720
Speaker 3: doesn't and just tries to chuck bombs, but I think

217
00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:18,400
Speaker 3: he should. He's a BJJ black belt. I think he

218
00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:21,160
Speaker 3: can probably top time a coast to hear, if not

219
00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:23,600
Speaker 3: knock him out. But the longer this fight goes, as

220
00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:26,640
Speaker 3: Billy mentioned, a coast of the younger guy, maybe over

221
00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:28,679
Speaker 3: the course of fifteen minutes he out volumes him. I mean,

222
00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:30,840
Speaker 3: he should out volume him over fifteen minutes, but maybe

223
00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:33,000
Speaker 3: he has better cardio to do it over fifteen So

224
00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:35,880
Speaker 3: I get the angle. I'm on Dalima personally. I think

225
00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,840
Speaker 3: he finishes him with grappling in round one, but I

226
00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:41,880
Speaker 3: certainly get the argument for you know, a heavyweight fight

227
00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,920
Speaker 3: where most things are closer to even money, taking a

228
00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,800
Speaker 3: shot on a dog, But yeah, I mean a coast

229
00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,160
Speaker 3: an interesting prospect. You don't see too many baseball players

230
00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:52,000
Speaker 3: X baseball players coming over to MMA. It's a lot

231
00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:56,120
Speaker 3: of hockey players, football players. So I feel bad betting

232
00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:58,000
Speaker 3: against a guy who should be my guy.

233
00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think he's the only one. It's rugby. We've

234
00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:03,880
Speaker 5: found out it's the best other sport for MMA. But

235
00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,360
Speaker 5: uh yeah, not a lot of baseball, I will say

236
00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:09,160
Speaker 5: to the grappling pretty much all over Virgerio Delima's losses

237
00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,480
Speaker 5: in the UFC, including all ship fighters submissions, now that

238
00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:13,920
Speaker 5: I think he's going to be scared to take down

239
00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:15,880
Speaker 5: a guy who is, you know, a pitcher ten years

240
00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:19,679
Speaker 5: ago and worried about getting submitted. But if I'm a

241
00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:21,680
Speaker 5: guy who's lost all my fights by submission, maybe I

242
00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:23,680
Speaker 5: don't force to take down I don't know, you know,

243
00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:25,760
Speaker 5: kind of sloppy heavyweight fight. I'm also on this one

244
00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,040
Speaker 5: to go to a decision at pretty significant plus money

245
00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,080
Speaker 5: for some of the reason Sean pointed out, but plus

246
00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:32,880
Speaker 5: one sixty is pretty good for sprinkle on a guy

247
00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:34,320
Speaker 5: who has all the athletic tools.

248
00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,120
Speaker 1: Get in on the action with the King of Sportsbooks.

249
00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,760
Speaker 1: Sign up with BETMGM using bonus code action and get

250
00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,560
Speaker 1: up to one thousand dollars paid back and bonus bets.

251
00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:48,280
Speaker 1: If your first bet doesn't win. Visit BETMGM dot com

252
00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:55,400
Speaker 1: for terms and conditions. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada,

253
00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:59,800
Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Virginia,

254
00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:03,319
Speaker 1: washed in DC, West Virginia, Wyoming, or Ontario only. Must

255
00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:05,960
Speaker 1: be twenty one or older to wager nineteen or older

256
00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:09,319
Speaker 1: in Ontario New Customer Offer. All promotions are subject to

257
00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:14,240
Speaker 1: qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non withdrawable free

258
00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,560
Speaker 1: bets or site credit free bets expire seven days from insuance.

259
00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:21,520
Speaker 1: Excludes Michigan disassociated persons. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called

260
00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:24,160
Speaker 1: one eight hundred next step in Arizona one eight hundred

261
00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:26,520
Speaker 1: five two to two four seven zero zero in Colorado,

262
00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:30,240
Speaker 1: d C, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, Wyoming, or Virginia. One eight

263
00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:32,920
Speaker 1: hundred two seven zero seven one one seven for confidential

264
00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,760
Speaker 1: help in Michigan one eight hundred Gambler in Indiana, Maryland,

265
00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:38,079
Speaker 1: New Jersey or West Virginia one eight hundred bets off.

266
00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:40,200
Speaker 1: In Iowa one eight hundred nine eight one zero zero

267
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,560
Speaker 1: two three. In Puerto Rico, call eight seven seven eight

268
00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,480
Speaker 1: hope and why, or text hope and why. In New York,

269
00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:48,520
Speaker 1: caller texts Tennessee redline at eight hundred eighty eight nine

270
00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:50,720
Speaker 1: nine seven eight nine are called one eight eight eight

271
00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,240
Speaker 1: seven seven seven nine six nine six in Mississippi. In Ontario,

272
00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,120
Speaker 1: if you have questions or concerns about your gambling or

273
00:12:56,160 --> 00:13:00,120
Speaker 1: someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario at one

274
00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:03,680
Speaker 1: eight six six five three one two six zero zero

275
00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:06,520
Speaker 1: to speak to an advisor free of charge. Sports betting

276
00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,240
Speaker 1: is void and Georgia, Hawaii and Utah and other states

277
00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,160
Speaker 1: where prohibited promotional offer is not available in Nevada and

278
00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,320
Speaker 1: New York. All right, the Fight of the Night we

279
00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:17,479
Speaker 1: want to touch on at UFC Fight Night's song simone

280
00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:23,320
Speaker 1: is we've got Kyo Bohalio and Michael Ola shaychuk Ola.

281
00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:26,079
Speaker 1: Shaychuck is at plus two ninety on the money line

282
00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:30,640
Speaker 1: and Kyo's at minus three point eighty five. We don't

283
00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:34,000
Speaker 1: normally like to lay big juice on the show, just

284
00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,400
Speaker 1: based on what you guys have given out in previous episodes,

285
00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:38,840
Speaker 1: so we try to find creative ways to bet the

286
00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:41,640
Speaker 1: fight of the night. Zorilla, Why is this fight notable

287
00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:43,559
Speaker 1: to you and what kind of edges have you found?

288
00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:48,040
Speaker 3: I think the winner of this fight will probably get

289
00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:51,480
Speaker 3: a big matchup next, probably a ranked opponent. Two very

290
00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:55,200
Speaker 3: exciting middleweights. McCall has moved down from light heavyweight. He

291
00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:58,240
Speaker 3: used to knock light heavyweights out cold, and I think

292
00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:01,199
Speaker 3: his power and his strength at middle is pretty substantial.

293
00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,280
Speaker 3: He was always undersized for two oh five, moving down

294
00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:06,400
Speaker 3: to one eighty five as his proper weight class, and

295
00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,800
Speaker 3: I think he hits extremely hard for the division. Ten

296
00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,600
Speaker 3: of his eighteen wins are in round one, fourteen of

297
00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:15,480
Speaker 3: his eighteen wins inside the distance, and in this particular

298
00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:18,000
Speaker 3: matchup I have him see I have a difficult time

299
00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:18,640
Speaker 3: seeing him.

300
00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:19,400
Speaker 4: Winning a decision.

301
00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:22,760
Speaker 3: If he's landing the things that he needs to land

302
00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:26,000
Speaker 3: on Bahio in order to win a decision, he probably

303
00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:29,960
Speaker 3: knocks him out. It's just difficult to envision him winning

304
00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,920
Speaker 3: clean minutes and the fight going fifteen minutes. It doesn't

305
00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:36,040
Speaker 3: really align. Kyle should be the better minute winner. All

306
00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:38,480
Speaker 3: of the grappling upside. It's very likely he finds a

307
00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,200
Speaker 3: submission in round two, round three, But he's also spent

308
00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:43,080
Speaker 3: a ton of time in the UFC with back control

309
00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:45,920
Speaker 3: and never submitted his opponents. It's very frustrating guy to

310
00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:49,480
Speaker 3: watch because he gets to these dominant positions, he's completely

311
00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:51,560
Speaker 3: out of danger, but then he doesn't seem to be

312
00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:53,800
Speaker 3: able to want to lock up the submission. It's not

313
00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:55,480
Speaker 3: that he can't, he almost seems to not want to.

314
00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:58,200
Speaker 3: It's like he's trying to get cage time. But in

315
00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:01,040
Speaker 3: terms of this particular opponent, I think he's gonna be

316
00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:01,640
Speaker 3: in trouble.

317
00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:03,280
Speaker 4: In the first round. Mycall pressures everybody.

318
00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:05,040
Speaker 3: I cash this seven to one, nine to one ticket

319
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,320
Speaker 3: on the call round one against Gamzatav A couple fights back.

320
00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,040
Speaker 3: I think you could just bet McCall like this in

321
00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,880
Speaker 3: every one of his fights and come out ahead. And

322
00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,280
Speaker 3: these are the best round one prices i've seen on him.

323
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:19,920
Speaker 3: So McCall round one straight up is I believe ten

324
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,840
Speaker 3: to one, but his round one knockout is thirteen to one,

325
00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:25,720
Speaker 3: his round two knockout is twenty four to one, and

326
00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,120
Speaker 3: just his straight up knockout odds or plus six fifty

327
00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:29,800
Speaker 3: I like all of those. I would not play any

328
00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:33,200
Speaker 3: of them big. I think somebody wins this fight inside

329
00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,280
Speaker 3: the distance. It is minus two hundred to end inside

330
00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,160
Speaker 3: the distance, and it's going to be very viinary. But

331
00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:40,680
Speaker 3: you're telling me that McCall say, Truck is plus three

332
00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:43,280
Speaker 3: hundred on the money line, but I generally think most

333
00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,000
Speaker 3: of his wing condition is tied to that plus thirteen

334
00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,480
Speaker 3: hundred knockout round one or plus twenty four hundred knockout

335
00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:51,080
Speaker 3: round two. So yeah, I given the price to screpancy

336
00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:53,800
Speaker 3: where those props are, I thought his round one prop

337
00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:55,360
Speaker 3: was going to be like five to one, not ten

338
00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:59,360
Speaker 3: to one. So the odds on his finish props just

339
00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:01,920
Speaker 3: their sustain actually higher than I was expecting relative to

340
00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:04,920
Speaker 3: his money line and also relative to our where I

341
00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,240
Speaker 3: think his chances of winning minutes in this fighter, which

342
00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:07,800
Speaker 3: is pretty low.

343
00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,840
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting sometimes we do these betting previews,

344
00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,960
Speaker 1: and sometimes we bring up the possibility of live betting

345
00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:18,440
Speaker 1: and if cards are good for live betting opportunities, and Billy,

346
00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:21,200
Speaker 1: you you think there's actually a chance here on the

347
00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:25,840
Speaker 1: KYO side that that's that's a possibility.

348
00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:28,920
Speaker 5: I do, and you know, for literally every reason that

349
00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,720
Speaker 5: Zerillo laid out, I was originally on Bohio like as

350
00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:36,240
Speaker 5: of last night on Bohio by submission, considerably better grappler.

351
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:38,160
Speaker 5: As Sean pointed out, you know, I've been kind of

352
00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,600
Speaker 5: disappointed with his performances in the UFC and that he's

353
00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:43,800
Speaker 5: not hunting submissions when he looked really good on the

354
00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:47,400
Speaker 5: Contender series, but something happened overnight and his sublnes went

355
00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,680
Speaker 5: from close to plus two hundred all the way less

356
00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:52,160
Speaker 5: than plus one fifty. And that's I don't like that

357
00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,240
Speaker 5: price just because, again, as Zerrilla pointed out, we don't

358
00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:56,800
Speaker 5: know that he's actually gonna look for the sub He's

359
00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:58,640
Speaker 5: gonna look to get close to one, but then is

360
00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,560
Speaker 5: he gonna take it? But you know, if he gets

361
00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:03,240
Speaker 5: beat up in round one and then decides he's just

362
00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:05,440
Speaker 5: gonna grapple his way to victory in rounds two and three,

363
00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:07,920
Speaker 5: we could get a really good price on him. Still,

364
00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:09,879
Speaker 5: you know, have the hedge of those first round McHale

365
00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:14,000
Speaker 5: props that Sean pointed out. But mckail is one in

366
00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:16,280
Speaker 5: two in the UFC in fights that make it past

367
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:18,359
Speaker 5: the first round, and that one win was a split

368
00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:20,480
Speaker 5: decision that was pretty questionable.

369
00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:21,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, he didn't deserve that.

370
00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, right, So if it goes out of the first round,

371
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:27,000
Speaker 5: he more or less loses, we can feel pretty comfortable

372
00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:29,439
Speaker 5: all of that. So dream scenario here, you know, we

373
00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,280
Speaker 5: take the round one knockout at plus thirteen hundred. If

374
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,520
Speaker 5: it doesn't happen but he hurts Bohio, hopefully we get

375
00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:36,600
Speaker 5: Bahilo close to even money at the end of round one.

376
00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:38,680
Speaker 5: Either way we come out ahead. That's the way I'm

377
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:39,119
Speaker 5: saying it.

378
00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:41,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with the live angle.

379
00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,960
Speaker 3: I think you can also do same game parlay with

380
00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,119
Speaker 3: Kyle in the over one and a half and then

381
00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:48,240
Speaker 3: Kyle's round two, round three props. You could you could

382
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:51,639
Speaker 3: just play McCall round one, Kyle round two, round three.

383
00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:54,840
Speaker 3: Maybe McCall gets the early round two knockout, but I

384
00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:56,879
Speaker 3: think after the first round there should be Kyle's fight.

385
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:58,720
Speaker 3: So I agree with the live angle, and I think,

386
00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,080
Speaker 3: like I said, McCall early kylea props.

387
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:02,280
Speaker 4: I think those are fine angles too.

388
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:04,720
Speaker 1: All right, So keep an eye on old Shay Chuck

389
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 1: Early and his possibility of frustration early on based on

390
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 1: what the guys just gave us there. So and that

391
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:15,480
Speaker 1: I mean that catches my attention, because, as Zerrilla laid out,

392
00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:19,159
Speaker 1: that the plus money that's available over at VANDUL money

393
00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 1: line or potentially KO round one, round two. Okay, let's

394
00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:25,639
Speaker 1: go to the prompt market, Zerilla, what do you have

395
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:26,000
Speaker 1: for us?

396
00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 3: Josh Quinland by submission at plus seven to fifty, he

397
00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:31,800
Speaker 3: is minus one ten to minus one forty to win

398
00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 3: this fight inside the distance. This fight is minus four

399
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,359
Speaker 3: hundred to end inside the distance. He is five inches

400
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:39,520
Speaker 3: shorter with a five inch reach discrepancy. Do you think

401
00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 3: he wants to stand in shrik with this guy? He

402
00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:43,720
Speaker 3: is the grappling advantage. He has a couple of rear

403
00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 3: naked jokes on his record. He is all the grappling upside.

404
00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:49,119
Speaker 3: The problem is Josh Quinland likes to stand and bang.

405
00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:51,360
Speaker 3: But I do think in this matchup, with the size

406
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:54,480
Speaker 3: of screpancy, he will recognize where he has the advantage.

407
00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:57,000
Speaker 3: So as I said minus four hundred to end inside

408
00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,880
Speaker 3: the distance, he's minus one ten to win inside the distance,

409
00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,080
Speaker 3: and his sub line is plus seven to fifty against

410
00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 3: the guy who has significant height and reach advantages against him.

411
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 3: You don't need to think too much about this one.

412
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 3: Josh Quinland by submission plust seven to fifty like down

413
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:12,800
Speaker 3: about plus seven.

414
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:15,920
Speaker 1: Billy prop play.

415
00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 3: Yeah.

416
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,919
Speaker 5: Another middleweight fight, Randolfo Vieira versus Cody Bungage. This is

417
00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 5: interesting fight is two of the better grapplers in the

418
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:26,640
Speaker 5: middleweight division with some significant questions if it's striking. I'm

419
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 5: looking at Hudelpho to finish this one by submission. You know,

420
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 5: they're both grapplers, but Brundage is a D two former

421
00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 5: college wrestler who either has a blue or purple belt

422
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,120
Speaker 5: in jiu jitsu. Hudolpho Viira is like a four time

423
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 5: world champion in jiu jitsu ADCC world champion. There's a

424
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:45,560
Speaker 5: huge different level between their grappling acumen here, and you know,

425
00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,959
Speaker 5: it's tough betting on Hudolpho against guys who might not

426
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:49,440
Speaker 5: want it to be a grappling match. You know, he

427
00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:51,160
Speaker 5: just lost to Chris Curtis in a fight that didn't

428
00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,960
Speaker 5: hit the ground very much. I just think Bundage is

429
00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 5: too much of a one trick pony himself that he's

430
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:57,400
Speaker 5: going to force this one to be a grappling match,

431
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,199
Speaker 5: which is a horrible place for him to be. I

432
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 5: also have a lot of questions about Hudolphos Cardio though

433
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:04,479
Speaker 5: you know he's tired out, got submitted by guys who

434
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,720
Speaker 5: shouldn't know if it goes past that, So you can

435
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 5: juice this up a little bit by taking his sub early,

436
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:11,400
Speaker 5: you know, sub round one if you've got the same

437
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,879
Speaker 5: game parlay sub and under one and a half props

438
00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 5: like that too, and then inside the distance is minus

439
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 5: one fifty two in case he decides to beat him

440
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:19,280
Speaker 5: up on the ground instead of tapping him out.

441
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:23,239
Speaker 3: I think Via has better cartage than better Cardio than

442
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,359
Speaker 3: Cody Browntage. You know, this is something I was thinking

443
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 3: about a lot this week via a guy on this podcast.

444
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 3: I've continually bet against because of poor Cardio. I think

445
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 3: he is the better Cardio on this fight. So I

446
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,239
Speaker 3: don't really know how Brundage wins aside from knocking him

447
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 3: out cold. I don't think he's gonna out Lasthim. I

448
00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 3: don't think he's gonna pay him on the feet. I

449
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:41,920
Speaker 3: think Vieira might have made the better striker, So yeah,

450
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 3: I agree Viera, same game parlay under two and a

451
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,639
Speaker 3: half minus one thirty five. That seems pretty solid. He

452
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 3: probably does this in round one. You could take a

453
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 3: look at his Round one props too. I think he

454
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,919
Speaker 3: does it quick. But yeah, there is like a huge

455
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:57,920
Speaker 3: gap here in terms of decorated grappling acumens.

456
00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 4: So yeah, I.

457
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,879
Speaker 3: Agree with Billy, but I think the cardio like shouldn't

458
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:03,440
Speaker 3: even be a concern.

459
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 5: Really, yeah, I'm not super. That's why you don't have

460
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:08,159
Speaker 5: the inside, the distance or the sub rather than the

461
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 5: early stuff. I also wrote this one up for the

462
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 5: DFS article that's going to come out shortly, and I said,

463
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 5: you know, one guy is tremendously better on the ground.

464
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,359
Speaker 5: Neither of them are great strikers. Hudolpha might be the

465
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 5: better one there, you know, I don't. It's definitely not

466
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,120
Speaker 5: the a skill for either of these guys. But it's

467
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 5: you know, fifty one forty nine at worst for Hudolpho.

468
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:29,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, he'd eat is Jabs better. I think like extended striking,

469
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,440
Speaker 3: I trust a Dolpha more, but like one punch knockout,

470
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,320
Speaker 3: I'd probably take Cody, but that's that's probably his only

471
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 3: win condition is just clipping them and hurting them.

472
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 1: For acard that neither of you seemed to be all

473
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 1: that in love with before we started recording. It sounds

474
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:44,919
Speaker 1: that I like the energy and the enthusiasm here that

475
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 1: you've delivered so far on the podcast.

476
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, a lot of the fights last week,

477
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 3: like we didn't even really get definitive outcomes. A lot

478
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:55,200
Speaker 3: of them ended weird, questionable judges, decisions aheadbutt that ended

479
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 3: up in a no contest. There weren't many fights where

480
00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,719
Speaker 3: it was like after the fact, I was like definitively

481
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 3: that I was a good batter, that I was a

482
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 3: bad bet. I do feel like I'm able to break

483
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 3: down a lot of these fights well this week and

484
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 3: feel like I have pretty solid takes, but at the

485
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 3: same time, they're mostly bad fights. So yeah, I mean,

486
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 3: sometimes the most interesting cards are more difficult to bet.

487
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:20,640
Speaker 3: Sometimes the less interesting cards are maybe easier to bet.

488
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:24,399
Speaker 3: I found this one. I found like I didn't have

489
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,440
Speaker 3: a tough time pulling the trigger on a lot of

490
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 3: the things I wanted to bet on.

491
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:28,120
Speaker 4: There.

492
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:31,120
Speaker 3: There wasn't a lot of like the Blades Pavlovich fight

493
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 3: last week. I gave out reasons why you should bet

494
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 3: Plavovitch round one or bet Blades to win a longer fight,

495
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 3: and we saw that play out exactly like that.

496
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 4: I just picked the wrong side.

497
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 3: So I didn't have as many cases this week where

498
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 3: I was like kind of flipping the coin for who

499
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 3: do I pick. I feel like I have both sides today.

500
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 3: I feel like there's a clear side and a lot

501
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 3: of these.

502
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 1: Okay as we normally do before we go oh. In

503
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: our final bet, best bet, I we're gonna adhere to

504
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 1: hit here to it. His final bet so Zerrilla one

505
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 1: more for us for UFC Fight Night in Vegas this weekend.

506
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,719
Speaker 3: I like final bet the Buddy system Martin Budai minus

507
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 3: one ten. He has the grappling in the fishing upside here.

508
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 3: He is the naturally much bigger heavyweight than Jake Collier.

509
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:20,360
Speaker 3: Collier former middleweight. They matched him up with a lot

510
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 3: of guys who are not true heavyweights. He got knocked

511
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 3: out by Tom Aspitall in his heavyweight debut.

512
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:25,360
Speaker 4: That's a true heavyweight.

513
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 3: But after that they've given him John Valante, Carlos, Felipe Chase, Sherman,

514
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 3: Andre Lawlowski, Chris Barnett, a lot of guys who have

515
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 3: the frames of two hundred and five or one hundred

516
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 3: and eighty five pounders who have been flamed and are

517
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:42,920
Speaker 3: fighting at heavyweight like Jay Collier is Martin Buddha is

518
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 3: a true heavyweight. This guy's two undred sixty five pounds.

519
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 3: He will probably be able to take Collier and just

520
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 3: push him up against the cage and hold him there

521
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 3: for as long as he wants to, in addition to

522
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 3: taking him down if he wants to. I think the

523
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 3: reason people are betting Collier and view him as a

524
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 3: pick him in this heavyweight fight, where a lot of

525
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,440
Speaker 3: fights should be a pick him, is the volume they

526
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 3: expect over the course of fifteen minutes. The Collier is

527
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 3: going to land more volume. The thing with Budai, though,

528
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 3: is he was doubled up in his on strikes in

529
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 3: his last fight, probably deserved to lose it against Lucas Preski,

530
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 3: but the way he absorbs damage is perfect in terms

531
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,479
Speaker 3: of the fighter you want to bet on. Never shows

532
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,439
Speaker 3: that he was impacted by anything, never wears anything on

533
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 3: his face. He looks clean at the end of fights.

534
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 3: So even though he was doubled up on strikes in

535
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 3: his last fight, he was the guy moving forward the

536
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,400
Speaker 3: whole time, and he was the guy who didn't look

537
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 3: like physically like he got hit.

538
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 4: So just the optics that Budai has, in addition.

539
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 3: To the fact that he's going to be thirty to

540
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 3: forty pounds naturally heavier than Collier and have more of

541
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 3: the finishing upside. He's extremely durable, and I think if

542
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:51,440
Speaker 3: he hits Collier clean hard a couple times, I think

543
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 3: he can fold him, because, like I said, this is

544
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 3: one of the first true heavyweights that Collier has actually faced,

545
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 3: the guy who has not substantial power but actual heavyweight power.

546
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,400
Speaker 3: So Martin Boudai, I pick him price minus one ten

547
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:06,679
Speaker 3: like them about minus one twenty grappling upside, durability upside,

548
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 3: and the cage push up side.

549
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 1: Toom Bill, you've got a prelim fight angle as well.

550
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 1: You want to weigh in on this one, though, because

551
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: you did write up about this fight in the Luck

552
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 1: ratings article.

553
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I wrote for this one Luck rating article.

554
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 5: Put a little note here in our show sheet. I

555
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 5: hate giving out so many live angles for this card

556
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 5: because you got to be pretty sick to dedicate six

557
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 5: hours or your Saturday night to this one.

558
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 1: But if you are on man, that's perfect. I will

559
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 1: be Yeah.

560
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 5: I'm not judging anyone what I'm going to be doing,

561
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 5: but I'm just saying, maybe do something else with your time.

562
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,360
Speaker 5: But if you're doing that, I really like Budai Live,

563
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 5: you know, for the luck ratings article. I look through

564
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 5: and I look through the scorecards of every fight that

565
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,640
Speaker 5: these guys have had went to a decision. Kylie has

566
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 5: a lot of decisions where he won round one, maybe

567
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 5: round two, lost it late. I think, you know, Sean

568
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 5: Point is not really naturally a guy who should be

569
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 5: fighting Heavywait, carrying all that extra weight probably isn't great

570
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 5: for the cardio. And his whole game is just a

571
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 5: ridiculous amount of volume which is really hard to sustain

572
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 5: for three rounds when you're you know, fifty pounds overweight

573
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 5: or whatever. So if you're watching this one, Kylie is

574
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 5: a good round one, love that spot. But I also

575
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 5: do like Padie at a roughly pick him price.

576
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:17,360
Speaker 1: All right, and you've got as you said, you've got

577
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 1: a prelim card and play as well moneyline play.

578
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is tough. I if this were earlier in

579
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:24,360
Speaker 5: the week, at the price we could get her at,

580
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 5: this would be my best bet. At the price's at

581
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 5: now it's more of a final bet. But that's Jamie

582
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,119
Speaker 5: Lyn Horthe money is poured in on her against Haley

583
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 5: Cohen This was roughly a pick him and I think

584
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 5: Horth was even plus money when it was first announced.

585
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 5: Now she's in the minus one fifty range. I just

586
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 5: think Hailey Cohen is not good. She won a split

587
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 5: decision in her Condender Sharies fight to get to the

588
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 5: UFC that I would have gone the other way. The

589
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 5: fight ended with her opponent like seconds away from choking

590
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 5: her unconscious. And there's you know, a certain type of

591
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,120
Speaker 5: female fighter that looks a certain way that sometimes gets

592
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,719
Speaker 5: them into the UFC more so than their fighting ability

593
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 5: necessarily does, and Cohen fits that description. All of her

594
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,440
Speaker 5: pre UFC fights were against people with records like one

595
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 5: in one, two and Oher you know, split decision wins

596
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 5: against a five and five fighter just not an impressive

597
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 5: resume before the Contender series fight where she didn't look

598
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 5: that great, whereas fourths, five and OHO all stoppages reasonably

599
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 5: high level of competition. Like I said, don't love it

600
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 5: at minus one fifty if you're taking it now. But

601
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 5: you know the fact that we've seen that much moneyline

602
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 5: movement is probably a good sign where the sharp betters

603
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 5: are on as well. So again, love that bet at

604
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 5: minus one ten minus one twenty. Still like it at

605
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 5: minus one fifty.

606
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 3: Cohen open plus or minus one twenty. It's all the

607
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:38,959
Speaker 3: way out to plus one twenty six now, so the

608
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 3: line is completely flipped. It was basically pick them across

609
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 3: the market, if not a lean towards Cohen is the

610
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 3: favor written Now she's a stential Underdock. I'm also with

611
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 3: Worth or on Worth with you at minus one fifty,

612
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 3: but not a big bet and really it wouldn't really

613
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 3: bet it pass that price. But we've tried to fade

614
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 3: Coen a couple of times. She just hasn't been able

615
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 3: to get her first UFC fight yet.

616
00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:59,239
Speaker 5: This is the third time I've bet against her. At

617
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 5: this point, I'm just low money to the sportsbooks. But

618
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 5: maybe this one, Maybe this one I'll actually go through.

619
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,160
Speaker 1: And as you said, if people want to dedicate that time,

620
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 1: they can feel that pain. Yeah. Okay, So if you

621
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 1: want to get in on Jamie Lynnhorth, probably do so now,

622
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 1: but you tune in before that number continues to rise.

623
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 1: All right, gents, that'll do it for this week's UFC

624
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 1: betting preview. Normally we join you on Fridays to get

625
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 1: you set for Saturday's card. For Shanzillo, Billy Ward, Brendan

626
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: las Sheen. Thanks for tuning into the Action Network podcast

627
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: presented by FANDL. Have a great weekend. I'll talk to

628
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 1: you next week. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

629
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

630
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,719
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

631
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler