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Speaker 1: Michael McKee along with Tom Keene Economic Indicators brought to
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Speaker 1: learn more? Vinnie del Judai says at the first word desk,
Speaker 1: it looks like we went shopping in May, Yes, Michael.
Speaker 1: Retail sales up point five percent in May, copping Wall
Speaker 1: Street forecasts excluding auto's up point four percent, matching forecasts
Speaker 1: the Control Group up point four percent, topping for asked
Speaker 1: retail sales up point five percent, and May economists going
Speaker 1: into the report it expected to gain a point three
Speaker 1: percent inflation News meantime, import price indecks May up one
Speaker 1: point four percent year over a year, though down five percent.
Speaker 1: To put up our first work desk company tails, Judice,
Speaker 1: lets go back to New York. Well, I one thing
Speaker 1: to point out about that import price number down five percent, Yes,
Speaker 1: but it was down five point seven percent revised negative
Speaker 1: five point three percent the prior month. So it has
Speaker 1: improved inflation on a month over month basis. Import price
Speaker 1: inflation up one point four percent. One presumes that's basically oil.
Speaker 1: Just in the headline data, there's six statistics and they're
Speaker 1: all Every single statistic is most constructively uh with a
Speaker 1: better tone. The tenure moved to a higher yield. But
Speaker 1: I'm actually sort of surprised, Mike. I guess it shows
Speaker 1: you the Brexit effect. I'm I'm a bit surprised at
Speaker 1: the lack of market move. It will see, maybe we'll
Speaker 1: see more as people digest these numbers. Well, people do
Speaker 1: seem to want the weight of evidence as opposed to
Speaker 1: a one thing. But I'm looking at the overall month
Speaker 1: over month numbers. Furniture sales and building material sales down.
Speaker 1: Building material sales down and high one percent after a
Speaker 1: two percent declined the month before, which is interesting because
Speaker 1: housing starts haven't been particularly weak. And then of course,
Speaker 1: your favorite department stores taking out on the Chin down
Speaker 1: nine tenths, but almost everything else is up. Obviously, you
Speaker 1: got a big boost from higher gas prices. UH, gasoline
Speaker 1: station sales up two point one. But what does it
Speaker 1: all mean? Does it put a floor under the idea
Speaker 1: that the US economy is collapsing. Lindsay Peza is chief
Speaker 1: economists for Stephl Nicholas out in Chicago, and Lindsay, you
Speaker 1: have been relatively negative on the US economy. Does this
Speaker 1: give you a little bit more confidence? Well, I think
Speaker 1: it would have given me a bit more confident if
Speaker 1: we if we've seen back to back months outside spending
Speaker 1: for the consumer. Now, certainly April was not revised, and
Speaker 1: so that's still above one percent spending, but May it's
Speaker 1: just half a percent. That that's a pretty modest spending pace,
Speaker 1: So it's still positive. Consumers are still out of the
Speaker 1: marketplace buying big screen TVs, buying new spring dresses, but
Speaker 1: they're doing so at a slightly more moderate pace. So
Speaker 1: I would have liked to have seen again another outsized
Speaker 1: increase in May to really undermine. Uh, that's a concern
Speaker 1: that I have about the the US consumer. What's I mean,
Speaker 1: this is two months in a row where, um, whether
Speaker 1: it's not outsized or not, we've seen consumer spending rise.
Speaker 1: What makes you concerned about consumers? Well, I think at
Speaker 1: this point we have really experienced any sort of positive
Speaker 1: momentum that we could from low gasoline prices, and that
Speaker 1: really is my concern because remember, against the backdrop of
Speaker 1: what the consumer is doing, we've been paying a significan
Speaker 1: can lower price filling up the family car at lower
Speaker 1: cost fuel, and that is translated into thousands of dollars
Speaker 1: of extra cash into the consumer's pockets. And when the
Speaker 1: consumer saves a thousand, typically they go out into the
Speaker 1: marketplace and they spend two thousand because they feel wealthier.
Speaker 1: So we should be seeing an upward trajectory in sales,
Speaker 1: but instead, when we look at these retail numbers on
Speaker 1: an annual basis, we see a lot of volatility, with
Speaker 1: the consumers stuck in this two to three percent growth range,
Speaker 1: down from a near five percent spending pace just eighteen
Speaker 1: months ago. So again, still positive, but we're still seeing
Speaker 1: that waning momentum in the consumer sector against the backdrop
Speaker 1: of lower energy prices. When you look at this, how
Speaker 1: does it fold into a GDP estimate, or I should
Speaker 1: say almost the tone of two GDP. Is your vector
Speaker 1: to a stronger economic growth in America or is it
Speaker 1: a more tepid growth? Well, I think in the second
Speaker 1: quarter this does line up with the idea that we
Speaker 1: will see above trend growth slightly above. So we're looking
Speaker 1: for about two and a half percent, which certainly is
Speaker 1: a step in the right direction from less than one
Speaker 1: percent growth in the first quarter, but a far cry
Speaker 1: from that near four percent rebound that we're used to
Speaker 1: when we look back to two thousand and four, two
Speaker 1: thousand and fifteen, and so it's a much more tepid
Speaker 1: first half of the year growth rate, really a far
Speaker 1: cry from the robust type of activity that the FED
Speaker 1: had anticipated to follow forward after that liftoff in December.
Speaker 1: So the economy does appear to be still in positive territory,
Speaker 1: but losing momentum from that trend and two percent pace. Well,
Speaker 1: I wonder how much has to do with the fact
Speaker 1: that we get a bad piece of data and the
Speaker 1: markets all sink and the headlines all read uh, you
Speaker 1: know things are terrible, uh, And then you have presidential
Speaker 1: candidates running around the country telling everybody things are terrible. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know how much of it is confidence that maybe
Speaker 1: could be reversed. Well, I think that goes to speak
Speaker 1: to just how fragile a consumer's perception of the US
Speaker 1: economy really is. It's one data point can derail that
Speaker 1: more positive assessment of the US economy, and in fact,
Speaker 1: I would extrapolate that out to the very fragile position
Speaker 1: the FETE is in as well. Remember we had weeks
Speaker 1: a very hawkish rhetoric that all of a sudden was
Speaker 1: derailed by one weaker than expected May employment report. If
Speaker 1: the set really did view the economy as being on
Speaker 1: strong footing, that May employment report should not have impacted
Speaker 1: their commitment to raise rates near term. Lindsey, thank you
Speaker 1: so much. Stephen Nicholas. I don't know what she's complaining about.
Speaker 1: She's in Chicago. Cubs have an eight and a half
Speaker 1: game leak. I mean, you gotta be feeling good about
Speaker 1: life if you're living in Chicago, at least on the
Speaker 1: North Side. No, it's a great story developing now that
Speaker 1: we've moved on from the Pittsburgh Penguins. The who we're
Speaker 1: not talking about my generation. Yeah, thank you for the
Speaker 1: many comments I had no idea. How many Pittsburgh Penguins
Speaker 1: fans we had in our world headquarters. It's a shock,
Speaker 1: Reachel Sales a very good statistic. This hour of surveillance
Speaker 1: is brought to you by Volvo Cars, White Planes. Visit
Speaker 1: Volvo Cars, White Planes dot Com. Here's Michael Barr with
Speaker 1: the latest World of national headlines. Mike Tom, thank you
Speaker 1: very much. Homeland Security Secretary j Johnson is urging vigilance
Speaker 1: after Sunday's mass shooting at an Orlando, Florida nightclub. Johnson,
Speaker 1: speaking to ABC, says the attack is looking more like
Speaker 1: the work of a lone wolf. Johnson also says the
Speaker 1: best way to prevent lone wolf attacks is to work
Speaker 1: with the Muslim community and not create an immigration ban
Speaker 1: proposed by a presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. We
Speaker 1: need to build bridges to communities, to American Muslim communities
Speaker 1: right now to encourage them to help us in our
Speaker 1: homeland security efforts. France says the murders of a policeman
Speaker 1: and his live in female partner were an act of terrorism.
Speaker 1: The attackers stabbed them to death outside of Paris. The
Speaker 1: attacker was killed by French Police how Speaker Paul Ryan
Speaker 1: plans to unvail a regulatory overhaul proposal that includes expanding
Speaker 1: energy production on federal land, limiting lawsuits against businesses, and
Speaker 1: scaling back the Dodd Frank financial regulation Loan Global News
Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty four
Speaker 1: hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty news bureaus around
Speaker 1: the world. I'm Michael Barr, Mike, Tom Hey, Good Michael.
Speaker 1: Time now for the land over Precipitate Blueberg, NBC Sports
Speaker 1: Update with Rob Bushka Rough Good morning, Mike, and Tom
Speaker 1: not Many gave the Cavaliers a chance in Game five
Speaker 1: of the NBA Finals of Golden State. Down three one
Speaker 1: of the series, and again the Cavaliers do have Lebron
Speaker 1: James the right hel focus turned back by Russ tries
Speaker 1: that again gets the foul life's out of the paint.
Speaker 1: Good pump they got hit and puts it up, puts
Speaker 1: it in the chance for the free point play Cavalier's
Speaker 1: radio in the call, James and Kyrie Irving both had
Speaker 1: forty one for Cleveland to climb back into the series
Speaker 1: with a one twelve nineties seven Druvving of the champs,
Speaker 1: putting their celebration on ice for now. It's a hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy fourth time in the playoffs alone that Lebron
Speaker 1: has scored twenty or more points. Steph Curry and Off
Speaker 1: ninety five but a game high four turnovers. Game six
Speaker 1: Thursday night in Cleveland, the Yankees and Mets both had
Speaker 1: the night off. The Yankees will be in Colorado for
Speaker 1: an eight forty first pitch. Nathan Vivaldi will square off
Speaker 1: against Jorge del Rosa, and the Yankees are hoping to
Speaker 1: restore a little pop and perhaps some championship pedigree at
Speaker 1: first while waiting for Mark to Sharon's nee to come around.
Speaker 1: They've signed former Met Ike Davis, who you remember his
Speaker 1: father Ron want to ring in pin stripes back in
Speaker 1: seventy eight. The Mets they host Pittsburgh, who have yet
Speaker 1: to name a starter tonight. While the Mets will hand
Speaker 1: the ball to Jacob to Grom NFL training camp still
Speaker 1: six weeks away, it's gonna be here before you know it.
Speaker 1: For the Jets, though, they have a standoff on their
Speaker 1: hands with Mohammad Wilkerson says he won't sign his franchise
Speaker 1: to could miss the start of camp in July over
Speaker 1: a contract dispute and called America Play. Mexico continues it's
Speaker 1: unbeaten streak. They played away one one tie with Venezuela,
Speaker 1: while Uruguay made quick work of Jamaica three nothing. And
Speaker 1: that is your NBC Bloomberg A sports update, Mike Tom,
Speaker 1: thanks so much. Appreciate that this morning a churn to
Speaker 1: the markets even after retail sales better than good report.
Speaker 1: The tenure yield rounded up one point six zero percent.
Speaker 1: That's good in the tape. Better in a Brexit Remain
Speaker 1: challenge Europe. The two year yield German two year is
Speaker 1: much more negative than twenty four hours ago, but actually
Speaker 1: not that bad. Negative point five eight one is a
Speaker 1: three basis point move on German short term paper. These
Speaker 1: are huge numbers. The end was a one oh five
Speaker 1: weaker in the last ninety minutes one oh six point
Speaker 1: zero one. This is Bloomberg surveillance. Stay with us. The
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