WEBVTT - 10 Players That Are Breaking Draft Boards (EP. 753) 0:00:06.120 --> 0:00:08.720 Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:12.000 Baseball Podcast. It's me Joey Bay, Joe Pizafia, and you 0:00:12.039 --> 0:00:14.000 know what time it is. It's baseball time and it 0:00:14.080 --> 0:00:16.640 means early drafts. We got best ball going on, we 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:19.000 got early rankings going on there up right now at 0:00:19.000 --> 0:00:21.599 Fantasypros dot com. There's also a lot of buzz going 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:24.160 around about a lot of players. So today, my good 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:25.880 friend the Welsh and I are gonna sit and talk 0:00:25.880 --> 0:00:28.760 about the ten players that are breaking draft boards right now, 0:00:28.960 --> 0:00:30.000 moving up, moving down. 0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:32.680 Maybe the value is good, maybe not so good. 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:36.360 We're gonna tell you as early NFBC drafting has already begun, 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:38.960 and we're gonna see if we can help you crack 0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:40.519 the code on some of these players that I'm sure 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:43.200 we're gonna talk about Welsh from now all the way 0:00:43.240 --> 0:00:45.880 into marsh because some of these guys right now are 0:00:45.920 --> 0:00:47.040 definitely buzzworthy. 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:50.080 The other word would be like polarizing. I think all 0:00:50.120 --> 0:00:53.240 ten of these guys are kind of polarizing, whether it's 0:00:53.280 --> 0:00:56.120 pulling up or down in drafts. And the idea is 0:00:56.200 --> 0:00:58.680 these guys are breaking draft boards because this is a 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:00.480 lot of the big movement. This is a lot of 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:03.400 the big focus. These are things that you might need 0:01:03.440 --> 0:01:06.160 to be prepared for the early trends if you start 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:09.600 checking in around March. Luckily, we're here to help you 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:12.759 kind of navigate that whole process. Whether it's I've got 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:15.800 my ranks primer available, the article you can check out 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:18.280 with my ranks over on Fantasy Pros, or stuff like this. 0:01:18.560 --> 0:01:20.360 We've got to try to identify and that's what we 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:22.960 did here. These are the crazies. These are the crazies. 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:25.600 Some are going to open your eyes, some you might 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:27.840 not know about, and some you need to take advantage of. 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:31.800 So let's talk about those players breaking the draft boards. 0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:34.120 Let's do it, and don't forget everybody. The Draft Wizard's 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:35.399 going to be open before you know. It's a go 0:01:35.440 --> 0:01:38.600 to Fantasypros dot com. Get on that Draft Wizard, start 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:42.840 using it, start training yourself, training your brain for baseball drafts. 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:45.160 All right, let's start with somebody here in the first 0:01:45.160 --> 0:01:48.560 spot leading off Ellie Dela Cruz, one of our favorites 0:01:48.560 --> 0:01:51.120 on leading off our program last year. Well, somebody we 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:53.080 were so excited to see. You got to see him 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:56.240 in person before in AFL and you know, this is 0:01:56.440 --> 0:01:59.160 a very exciting player. Last year he was everything you 0:01:59.200 --> 0:02:02.080 could possibly made the two ninety eight with one thousand 0:02:02.080 --> 0:02:05.200 ops over in thirty eight games last year in Triple 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:07.160 A at twenty one years old. Then he came out 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:09.560 to the big leagues at thirteen home runs and ninety 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:11.399 eight games there. Now he only had two thirty five, 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:13.440 and he did have the OBP go from three ninety 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:14.280 eight to three zho one. 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:15.720 So clearly the strikeouts are. 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:17.639 A problem here, but we know the speed he offers 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:20.600 to thirty five steals and thirteen homers, that is something 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:23.440 that's very tantalizing. So we're looking at the ADP right 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:28.160 now of twenty two. It was nineteen earlier before in 0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:30.720 November to seven and some of the early ranks that 0:02:30.760 --> 0:02:32.360 were going on. But at least one of these players 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:34.119 that I think we all look at and say there 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:36.200 might not be a ceiling like he is that kind 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:38.440 of a special guy. Bigger kids got to fill out 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:40.160 a little bit more. Certainly, there's a little bit more 0:02:40.200 --> 0:02:42.600 growing physically for him to do, and also the maturation 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:44.880 too at the plate in terms of seeing so many 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:47.600 pitches striking out as much as he did there's obviously 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:50.080 a better version of him somewhere. The question is are 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:51.840 we going to see it in year two or do 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:53.639 some of the struggles and some of the negatives kind 0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:56.360 of linger into the sophomore season and the perennial sophomore 0:02:56.360 --> 0:02:58.160 slump that we deal with with so many players. 0:02:58.160 --> 0:02:59.320 So when you're looking at. 0:02:59.200 --> 0:03:01.400 Elie de la Cruz, do you let the excitement kind 0:03:01.440 --> 0:03:02.960 of get away from you a little bit in this 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:06.000 early ADP or you somebody that is thinking, Yeah, this 0:03:06.120 --> 0:03:07.400 is kind of where I want. 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:09.320 Because I want to be in the Eli Delacruz business. 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:12.400 I think I am the former. I think that's how 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:14.240 I say it correctly, would be the former side of 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:16.800 that for the first one, Yeah exactly, yeah, exactly. I 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:17.480 didn't mess that up. 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:19.160 I think I got that in lay terms. That's the 0:03:19.160 --> 0:03:19.640 first one. 0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:21.880 In dy tunes. But you kind of said it in 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:24.160 the very beginning, like he does everything, but he does 0:03:24.200 --> 0:03:27.200 everything positively and negatively, Like the one of the hardest 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:29.359 hit balls, like the third hardest hit ball of the 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:33.200 year at like one nineteen overall, which was absolutely absurd, 0:03:33.240 --> 0:03:35.840 big hard hit numbers. I mean, the guy stole the 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:39.240 three bases and stole home. I mean, what he did 0:03:39.480 --> 0:03:42.400 was great, but what he did bad was also not great. 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:44.320 You know, the strikeouts or what are staring us in 0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:47.200 the face. So there's a risk versus reward factor. And 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:49.520 I know that when you're talking about like breaking draft 0:03:49.520 --> 0:03:52.320 boards here, that number might not seem like a lot, 0:03:52.400 --> 0:03:55.680 but to move three spots inside the top twenty five 0:03:55.800 --> 0:03:57.880 over a two or three month span, that's kind of 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:00.720 eye opening. He has a men pick of a so 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:03.280 that means some people are comfortable jumping in at eleven. 0:04:03.440 --> 0:04:06.800 I was granted this position in one of my draft 0:04:06.880 --> 0:04:10.000 champions on both sides obviously first and second round, and 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:12.960 I passed. I've got him lower than the so just 0:04:12.960 --> 0:04:16.760 out of curiosity, I went really safe. I went Freddy 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:22.200 Freeman and oh man, I'm complete, and maybe Corey Seeker. 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:24.839 That might have been what my parent understand that, Yeah, 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:26.719 it was like a really really safe I. 0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:29.200 Would agree with that that judgment call that you made, though, 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:31.080 I think that's the right judgment call because right now, 0:04:31.120 --> 0:04:33.440 I mean where he is on the early ECR on 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:35.080 Fantasy Pros dot Com, and you can check out the 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:37.880 rankings there a FP he is a thirty eighth overall 0:04:37.920 --> 0:04:40.080 player and that feels a little bit more comfortable. Now. 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:42.839 I could argue all the way up to thirty, but 0:04:43.040 --> 0:04:46.280 I understand when you get into these formats like NFBC 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:49.159 where people were like, look, the ceiling is just too big. 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:50.440 We can't let it go. 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:52.039 Because he is one of these guys that if you 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:54.200 have him and he figures it out, the power and 0:04:54.279 --> 0:04:56.920 the speed, the combination of everything he brings and as 0:04:56.960 --> 0:05:00.480 you mentioned, the tough part is disseminating the negatives. 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:01.360 From the fun to watch factor. 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:03.839 And he's fun to watch, he's exciting, he's likable, you 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:06.680 want to he's good television, but he's not necessarily good 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:09.120 fantasy yet as a whole complete project. 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:11.640 Yeah, and I think you can take your shots in 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:14.000 different spots with Alie. And this is why he breaks 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:16.000 the board because he could fall. There are gonna be 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:18.080 some ranks, some early ranks that have popped out, and 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:20.880 it's because people are worried about the strikeouts. So where 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:22.880 that is going to take away from the top end. 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:25.440 He had a two forty XBA, which doesn't leave a 0:05:25.440 --> 0:05:27.280 lot of room for big batting average. But if he's 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:30.280 hitting two forty, that's great. Launch angle was crazy low, 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:33.400 but it reminded me of Vlad Junior, where Vlad Junior 0:05:33.440 --> 0:05:35.400 in his rookie year was like hitting really really hard, 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:37.000 but couldn't get the ball in the air. Ellie had 0:05:37.000 --> 0:05:39.600 a three point six degree launch angle, which you got 0:05:39.600 --> 0:05:40.840 to get the ball in the air if you're going 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:43.080 to really take advantage of those homers. But good hard 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:45.640 hit numbers, good barrel numbers. You tied for one of 0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:47.760 the fastest players, actually tied with Bobby Witt for the 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:50.720 fastest sprint speed in the league. But he is going 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:53.039 to have a wide range of outcomes, not only in 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:55.840 his production but where he's drafted in leagues, And it 0:05:55.960 --> 0:05:58.720 just kind of comes probably about the construction that you're 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:01.400 putting in. I'm likely not going to have a lot 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:03.599 of shares. I would love Ellie in the third, he 0:06:03.760 --> 0:06:05.919 will cost you a second. And if he costs you 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:07.920 a third, I think you can stomach it, especially if 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:10.640 you put together something like a I don't know, Freeman 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:13.680 Endeavors or a Freeman and Riley, or you could have 0:06:13.720 --> 0:06:16.520 a Freeman in an outfielder put together there. I think 0:06:16.520 --> 0:06:19.600 they're definitely constructions that you can do. But he has 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:22.320 number one overall player upside, and that's why he has 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:24.760 a men pick of eleven. But he also has the 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:27.480 potential to be outside the top one hundred and fall 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:30.600 apart with those crazy strikeout numbers, which you know is 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:32.479 probably going to push him in some leagues outside the 0:06:32.480 --> 0:06:35.400 top fifty. So he breaks boards across the board. But 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:38.320 what is interesting is over the last two months he's 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:40.880 falling down even in the big high money leagues where 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:41.919 people are taking shots. 0:06:42.240 --> 0:06:45.960 I like that, breaking boards all over the boards, all 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:48.320 over the boards. That's Walsh has a number three for 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:50.920 the season, number two on our list. Pablo Lopez of 0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:53.320 the Minnesota Twins, coming off a year with his highest 0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:57.880 strikeout rate in recent memory in his career NFBC ADP 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:00.159 of thirty seven. It was forty six in October. So 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:02.159 he's moving up a little bit right now in the 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:04.560 Fantasy Pro's early ranks. Again, this is a guy who's 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:07.000 a top ten pitcher. He's ranked eighth overall and the 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:10.040 expert consensus ranks right now with Fantasy Pros, and again 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:13.480 you cannot deny Welsh. Last year was very eye opening, 0:07:13.720 --> 0:07:15.840 you might even say a breakthrough. The era was at 0:07:15.880 --> 0:07:18.040 three to seven. But when you dig deeper into things, 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:21.360 you'll see that the XCRA was at three, the X 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:23.200 fIF was a three twenty five. So there's even a 0:07:23.200 --> 0:07:26.480 better version here of Pablo Lopez to be had. And 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:29.440 Minnesota is a team that still looks to be very 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:32.080 competitive this year despite some of the shortcomings of the 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:34.400 American League Central at times that we've all joked about. 0:07:34.600 --> 0:07:36.280 But Pablo Lopez is one of these guys you have 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:38.200 to believe whether or not this guy is an ACE 0:07:38.640 --> 0:07:41.000 or not to draft him at this current top ten 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:43.160 SP value, that's the big question. 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:44.720 I know some people aren't sold on that. 0:07:44.920 --> 0:07:46.720 I feel pretty good about it, and I still feel 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:49.640 like he's going late enough where that's one of the 0:07:49.680 --> 0:07:51.520 two guys I'd like to pair with somebody else. 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:52.600 I like him as a pairing. 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:54.840 Like if you give me Pablo Lopez and then a 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:56.920 little bit later, maybe the guy we're gonna talk about next, 0:07:57.040 --> 0:07:59.720 or maybe a shot at Yamamoto or a Logan Web, 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:01.240 that's good start to a rotation. 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:02.239 But what do you think about Pablo? 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:03.600 Yeah, and I think one of the things talking about 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:07.040 what you're saying is there's actually some good safety pitchers 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:09.360 that go a little bit later. I personally am big 0:08:09.400 --> 0:08:11.400 into George Kirby this year, but you'd probably have to 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:13.280 go back to back Lopez and Kirby. But you can 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:15.880 get like a Logan Gilbert a little bit later. Zach 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:19.000 Eflin is a really safe option Logan Web. So if 0:08:19.000 --> 0:08:21.840 you wanted to go, you know, third round Pablo Lopez, 0:08:21.960 --> 0:08:23.800 you have the potential to swoop in and get like 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:26.160 a six round Logan Web and that's pretty good. But 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:29.120 you know, you're saying in the consistent consensus ranks, he's 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:31.400 coming in at eight. He's going as high as a 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:35.720 third sp in NFBC leagues, and it's because of not 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:37.800 only what he did, but what a lot of the 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:40.640 expected numbers are saying he can get too. Again, that 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.480 expected era was one of the better jumps, three and 0:08:43.480 --> 0:08:46.320 a half down to three. The strikeout number is close 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:48.480 to elite twenty nine point two percent with a low 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:50.839 walk rate. And one of the biggest reasons behind all 0:08:50.840 --> 0:08:53.720 of this was the change that he made. He added 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:56.719 velocity to his fastball, which made that better. You don't 0:08:56.760 --> 0:09:00.839 see fastballs with really really high wift rates a whole bunch. Well, 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:02.719 he had a thirty one and a half percent with rate. 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:06.079 Usually that's on the secondaries twenty three percent with rate 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:09.160 in twenty twenty two over thirty percent with rate on 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:12.160 a four seen fastball crazy. But he added a sweeper 0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:15.400 and that changed the game. It was his number one 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:19.240 whift pitch thirty six point six percent and he threw 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:22.120 it twenty one percent of the time. Previous year he 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:25.600 was fastball change up. This year fastball sweeper change up, 0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:28.480 and even through a higher propensity of curveballs and sinkers. 0:09:28.520 --> 0:09:30.760 So the whole point of this is is there is 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:34.440 a lot of strikeout potential. He gave himself a strikeout pitch. 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:37.720 He added velo and expected numbers are telling a better story. 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:41.520 So people are anticipating the expected numbers to have a 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:44.440 bigger year. If you think he's going to be top five, 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:46.360 you're kind of getting a discount. But this is one 0:09:46.360 --> 0:09:48.600 of those situations. I kind of feel that, like the 0:09:49.160 --> 0:09:53.040 you're already buying him at the price of where he 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:54.720 is going to push, so it's like you. 0:09:54.720 --> 0:09:56.400 Have to return the value at eight. 0:09:56.800 --> 0:10:00.319 He has to be better to return the val value 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:02.520 of what you're paying for, So that makes a little dicey, 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:04.720 But he is one of those guys. This is another 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:08.360 one of those instances, he has risen of draft boards. 0:10:08.760 --> 0:10:11.120 I think you said the number a little bit ago. 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:13.840 I think he was. Yeah, he was forty six in 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:17.480 October overall, and he's jumped into the mid thirties and 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:20.960 he's pushing into the twenties on his mid midpick. So 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:23.920 if you want Pablo Lopez in those strikeouts, you're gonna 0:10:23.920 --> 0:10:26.200 have to pay a lot. And he's gonna open some 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:27.760 eyes when you see him in the draft room. 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:30.599 He's thirty nine right now on Fantasy Pros, ahead of 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:33.960 Zach Gallen Tyler Glass, now, which I can understand why. 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:36.439 But that is an interesting. 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:39.400 Debate, and maybe the best piece of advice is they're 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:40.240 all pretty close. 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:41.880 Maybe just take the guy that falls ye of the 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:42.400 best value. 0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:45.040 And I think that's probably when we start getting into 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:47.439 our draft season or the shows, you're probably gonna see 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:48.880 me doing a lot of that. Like I like these 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:50.880 guys this grouping, just like I liked him last year 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:53.000 and I attacked them hard in all those drafts, and 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:55.720 I think the same thing here as you attack this grouping, 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:59.559 because there isn't that much of a difference between them all. 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:01.440 And to your point, and this is a little bit different. 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:04.080 But in that DC I had Pablo Lopez went in 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:06.920 a third round and I swooped back and I didn't 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:08.600 take a picture in my first three, and then the 0:11:08.600 --> 0:11:10.960 fourth round George Kirby felt to me and I took 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:14.160 Kirby and it was like it was Pablo, then Gallon, 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:14.920 and then I. 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:17.000 Just fund because Kirby's ranked ahead on Fantasy Bros. 0:11:17.000 --> 0:11:19.320 Of Bablo Lopez, and I'm probably one of those reasons 0:11:19.320 --> 0:11:21.840 because because I have them above now, Lopez is the 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:25.439 better strikeout option and there's a big push to chase 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:28.800 your strikeouts this year. But there's something about Kirby specifically 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:31.880 to me that has such a such a great floor. 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:34.240 I feel like I can take more risks with guys 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:37.000 like Glass now or the guy we're just about to 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:38.760 talk about. If you wanted to maybe go back to 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:40.079 back round pitchers. 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:42.520 Well three Schooble is that guy at number three NFBC 0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:45.959 ADP of fifty overall. And last year what a finish 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:48.199 to the season. He had eighty innings, he was seven 0:11:48.280 --> 0:11:51.040 to three, one hundred strikeouts, just fourteen walks, a two 0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:53.679 eight zero era, a point nine zero whip, and you 0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:56.400 think will that era is unsustainable. You might be wrong 0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:59.559 because the XCRA was two three zero two feasts two 0:11:59.559 --> 0:12:02.200 five six excuse me for the x FIP, so it's 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:05.000 not a fluke here. Teri Scooble was straight up dominant 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:07.400 and in terms of left handed starting pitchers, one of 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:10.640 the best in baseball last year over those final eighty 0:12:10.679 --> 0:12:13.480 innings that he threw. Now, the question is what does 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:15.600 it look like over the full season. That's what we 0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:18.160 want to see Kenny sustain this sort of pace. He 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:20.880 was good in twenty twenty two, the three three seven era, 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:23.520 so a lot of people liked him going in. Secondary 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:25.840 numbers were good, peripherals were good, the whip was decent. 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:27.040 This was a whole other level. 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:30.200 So if he finishes with one hundred and sixty five 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:33.000 one hundred and seventy five innings this year, with something 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:36.240 between twenty twenty two and twenty three twenty three, I 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:37.920 think he returns the value of this pick. 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:39.199 But what do you think, Welsh? 0:12:39.320 --> 0:12:41.319 Yeah, I actually think this one is really interesting because 0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:44.320 it's like it's near Pablo Lopez, but it's quite a 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:46.960 bit lower. Treek School's got so much going for him, 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:49.080 you know, the stuff was incredible. I think it was 0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:52.720 like the highest expected era total. If he qualified of 0:12:52.840 --> 0:12:54.960 pictures of the eighty or more innings, he would have 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:59.520 been number one. The k percentage was absolutely elite, pulling 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:02.040 that up thirty two point nine percent with a sub 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:04.920 five percent walk rate. That's like exactly what you want. 0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:07.360 That is what you want in this world of pitching, 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:10.720 especially if you're gonna try to jump into the strikeout marker. 0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:15.600 Good fastball almost ninety six, which was almost two miles 0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:17.720 per hour more than the previous year. His change up 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:20.920 absolutely elite. Had a fifty percent whiff rate, one of 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:23.280 a handful of pitchers and all of baseball that had 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:26.080 a fifty percent withff rate on a dominant pitch. We've 0:13:26.080 --> 0:13:28.920 talked about them over the last couple episodes, so I 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:32.199 love trikes Scooble. One of the only knocks though, is 0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:34.920 the people that he faced. He had like a one 0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:38.920 point something ra at home in a four era away. 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:41.680 That's one little marker because Detroit was a really pitcher 0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:45.160 friendly environment. But also if you look at his pitching log, 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:47.400 here are the teams that he faced in the month 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:52.000 of August. The White Sox, the Boat actually two White 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:55.600 Sox Angels, A's and Royals. The month prior to that, 0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:58.240 you did have Yankees and Cubs, but you had Guardians, 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:01.840 Red Sox and Rays. You know, the end the season 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:02.640 is central. 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:03.520 In the Central soft anyway. 0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:05.760 So like for no period, I look at that and 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:08.360 I'm like, well, he's gonna get those teams again, And 0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:11.280 like if he was pitching in the American League East, maybe. 0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:13.560 I'd have a little bit more of a concern, right or. 0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:15.679 You know, but you know, he's gonna get a lot 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:17.760 of Royals and a lot of Guardians and a lot 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:18.440 of you know all. 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:21.800 You want to talk about breaking these draft boards, you 0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:24.360 got to break one. Who are you going with Pablo 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:26.560 Lopez in the third or trick School in the fourth? 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:29.560 Uh? You know again, if I'm going, I'm you know me, 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:32.320 I'm going hitter early one too. So if I want 0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:34.160 to double up on pitching, I like having both of them. 0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:35.720 But I think I keep coming back to the same thing, 0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:38.200 which is I'm gonna take the guy that's cheaper. I 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:40.480 don't know if I'm ready to make Schooble my ace. 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:43.760 So once again, if I did take Schooble I would 0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:46.360 probably want to pair him up right away. If I'm 0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:48.920 gonna have Schooble. I want to also have, as I said, 0:14:48.960 --> 0:14:51.600 a Logan Web who I trust, a Framber Valdez who 0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:53.520 I really trust. You know, do they have the same 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:57.000 upside as Garrett Cole? No, but I know who they are. 0:14:57.040 --> 0:14:59.360 I feel good about it, and I want that pairing together. 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:02.120 I feel very important, like about three four five, if 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:03.720 I can await with two pitchers there that I feel 0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:05.600 really good about. Is the top two guys in my 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:08.280 rotation two one a's or two high end number twos, 0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:10.720 however you want to talk about it, That's my approach, 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:13.480 just like it was last year, because again you keep 0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:15.440 seeing the injury factory, keep seeing the turnover. 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:16.920 You see these guys were aging out. 0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:18.560 These veterans that were so used to the Verlanders and 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:20.080 the Shuress at the top of the board. Those days 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:22.360 are gone, and the guys that are coming are not 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:25.560 quite established yet. So you've got to be really careful 0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:27.880 because it is kind of a it's a very murky 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:30.760 water because if you put too much draft capital into 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:33.040 these guys, they don't pan out. You miss that on 0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:34.960 that offense, and it really does set you back in 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:35.760 these deeper leagues. 0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:38.760 Yeah, and another thing we talked about in the previous episode, 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:41.240 like if you tuned out early, there are things that 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:43.240 are a lot of these guys that are breaking these 0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:45.400 draft boards that we're talking about. These are things that 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:47.240 might be kind of new to you, like, oh, I'm 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:50.440 paying maybe second round for Pablo Lopez and oh Tarik 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:53.440 Schoobles here, but you're gonna have to take more shots 0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:56.000 this year and you're gonna have to just be paying 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:59.080 attention to your construction. Scooble is another one of those 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:01.880 players where you can balance out some of the inherent risk. 0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:04.760 And the only inherent risk here, lastly, is just the 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:07.240 amount of time that he's been able to do this. 0:16:07.320 --> 0:16:11.440 It's sample size eighty innings. Though he was phenomenal last 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:14.480 year in a good hitter environment, he is worth it 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:16.480 and you can break those boards a little bit for 0:16:16.560 --> 0:16:17.160 trick school. 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:19.960 Now, one guy that we are already in disagreement with. 0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:21.480 If you listen to the last show and go back 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:23.320 and listen to it, you can watch on YouTube also 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:27.360 Nolan Jones, NFBC ADP of fifty seven right now. So 0:16:27.480 --> 0:16:29.960 Welsh is not as big of a fan as I am, 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:32.360 and that's okay. We can disagree on things here on 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:34.640 the program. This guy at a twenty twenty season in 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:37.320 one hundred games, and I understand that it's in course field. 0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:40.080 I get that, but still playing at course field in 0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:40.840 twenty twenty four. 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:42.640 So the soon to be twenty six year old Nolan 0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:45.120 Jones as a player that last year in TRIPAA at 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:47.760 twelve homers forty two RBI hit three fifty six with 0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:50.840 an eleven hundred ops. Granted it was in the PCL, 0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:53.840 but again, you can't help where you play. Todd Helton 0:16:53.880 --> 0:16:56.560 played his whole career in Colorado, and damn it, Todd 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:59.040