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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast. It's me Joey Bay, Joe Pizafia, and you

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Speaker 1: know what time it is. It's baseball time and it

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Speaker 1: means early drafts. We got best ball going on, we

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Speaker 1: got early rankings going on there up right now at

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Speaker 1: Fantasypros dot com. There's also a lot of buzz going

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Speaker 1: around about a lot of players. So today, my good

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Speaker 1: friend the Welsh and I are gonna sit and talk

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Speaker 1: about the ten players that are breaking draft boards right now,

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Speaker 1: moving up, moving down.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the value is good, maybe not so good.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna tell you as early NFBC drafting has already begun,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna see if we can help you crack

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Speaker 1: the code on some of these players that I'm sure

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about Welsh from now all the way

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Speaker 1: into marsh because some of these guys right now are

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Speaker 1: definitely buzzworthy.

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Speaker 3: The other word would be like polarizing. I think all

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Speaker 3: ten of these guys are kind of polarizing, whether it's

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Speaker 3: pulling up or down in drafts. And the idea is

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Speaker 3: these guys are breaking draft boards because this is a

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Speaker 3: lot of the big movement. This is a lot of

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Speaker 3: the big focus. These are things that you might need

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Speaker 3: to be prepared for the early trends if you start

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Speaker 3: checking in around March. Luckily, we're here to help you

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Speaker 3: kind of navigate that whole process. Whether it's I've got

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Speaker 3: my ranks primer available, the article you can check out

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Speaker 3: with my ranks over on Fantasy Pros, or stuff like this.

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Speaker 3: We've got to try to identify and that's what we

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Speaker 3: did here. These are the crazies. These are the crazies.

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Speaker 3: Some are going to open your eyes, some you might

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Speaker 3: not know about, and some you need to take advantage of.

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Speaker 3: So let's talk about those players breaking the draft boards.

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Speaker 1: Let's do it, and don't forget everybody. The Draft Wizard's

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Speaker 1: going to be open before you know. It's a go

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Speaker 1: to Fantasypros dot com. Get on that Draft Wizard, start

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Speaker 1: using it, start training yourself, training your brain for baseball drafts.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's start with somebody here in the first

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Speaker 1: spot leading off Ellie Dela Cruz, one of our favorites

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Speaker 1: on leading off our program last year. Well, somebody we

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Speaker 1: were so excited to see. You got to see him

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Speaker 1: in person before in AFL and you know, this is

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Speaker 1: a very exciting player. Last year he was everything you

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Speaker 1: could possibly made the two ninety eight with one thousand

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Speaker 1: ops over in thirty eight games last year in Triple

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Speaker 1: A at twenty one years old. Then he came out

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Speaker 1: to the big leagues at thirteen home runs and ninety

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Speaker 1: eight games there. Now he only had two thirty five,

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Speaker 1: and he did have the OBP go from three ninety

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Speaker 1: eight to three zho one.

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Speaker 2: So clearly the strikeouts are.

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Speaker 1: A problem here, but we know the speed he offers

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Speaker 1: to thirty five steals and thirteen homers, that is something

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Speaker 1: that's very tantalizing. So we're looking at the ADP right

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Speaker 1: now of twenty two. It was nineteen earlier before in

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Speaker 1: November to seven and some of the early ranks that

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Speaker 1: were going on. But at least one of these players

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Speaker 1: that I think we all look at and say there

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Speaker 1: might not be a ceiling like he is that kind

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Speaker 1: of a special guy. Bigger kids got to fill out

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Speaker 1: a little bit more. Certainly, there's a little bit more

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Speaker 1: growing physically for him to do, and also the maturation

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Speaker 1: too at the plate in terms of seeing so many

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Speaker 1: pitches striking out as much as he did there's obviously

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Speaker 1: a better version of him somewhere. The question is are

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Speaker 1: we going to see it in year two or do

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Speaker 1: some of the struggles and some of the negatives kind

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Speaker 1: of linger into the sophomore season and the perennial sophomore

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Speaker 1: slump that we deal with with so many players.

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Speaker 2: So when you're looking at.

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Speaker 1: Elie de la Cruz, do you let the excitement kind

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Speaker 1: of get away from you a little bit in this

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Speaker 1: early ADP or you somebody that is thinking, Yeah, this

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Speaker 1: is kind of where I want.

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Speaker 2: Because I want to be in the Eli Delacruz business.

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Speaker 3: I think I am the former. I think that's how

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Speaker 3: I say it correctly, would be the former side of

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Speaker 3: that for the first one, Yeah exactly, yeah, exactly. I

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Speaker 3: didn't mess that up.

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Speaker 2: I think I got that in lay terms. That's the

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Speaker 2: first one.

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Speaker 3: In dy tunes. But you kind of said it in

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Speaker 3: the very beginning, like he does everything, but he does

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Speaker 3: everything positively and negatively, Like the one of the hardest

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Speaker 3: hit balls, like the third hardest hit ball of the

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Speaker 3: year at like one nineteen overall, which was absolutely absurd,

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Speaker 3: big hard hit numbers. I mean, the guy stole the

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Speaker 3: three bases and stole home. I mean, what he did

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Speaker 3: was great, but what he did bad was also not great.

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Speaker 3: You know, the strikeouts or what are staring us in

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Speaker 3: the face. So there's a risk versus reward factor. And

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Speaker 3: I know that when you're talking about like breaking draft

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Speaker 3: boards here, that number might not seem like a lot,

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Speaker 3: but to move three spots inside the top twenty five

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Speaker 3: over a two or three month span, that's kind of

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Speaker 3: eye opening. He has a men pick of a so

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Speaker 3: that means some people are comfortable jumping in at eleven.

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Speaker 3: I was granted this position in one of my draft

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Speaker 3: champions on both sides obviously first and second round, and

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Speaker 3: I passed. I've got him lower than the so just

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Speaker 3: out of curiosity, I went really safe. I went Freddy

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Speaker 3: Freeman and oh man, I'm complete, and maybe Corey Seeker.

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Speaker 3: That might have been what my parent understand that, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it was like a really really safe I.

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Speaker 1: Would agree with that that judgment call that you made, though,

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Speaker 1: I think that's the right judgment call because right now,

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Speaker 1: I mean where he is on the early ECR on

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros dot Com, and you can check out the

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Speaker 1: rankings there a FP he is a thirty eighth overall

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Speaker 1: player and that feels a little bit more comfortable. Now.

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Speaker 1: I could argue all the way up to thirty, but

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Speaker 1: I understand when you get into these formats like NFBC

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Speaker 1: where people were like, look, the ceiling is just too big.

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Speaker 2: We can't let it go.

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Speaker 1: Because he is one of these guys that if you

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Speaker 1: have him and he figures it out, the power and

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Speaker 1: the speed, the combination of everything he brings and as

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Speaker 1: you mentioned, the tough part is disseminating the negatives.

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Speaker 2: From the fun to watch factor.

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Speaker 1: And he's fun to watch, he's exciting, he's likable, you

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Speaker 1: want to he's good television, but he's not necessarily good

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Speaker 1: fantasy yet as a whole complete project.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think you can take your shots in

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Speaker 3: different spots with Alie. And this is why he breaks

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Speaker 3: the board because he could fall. There are gonna be

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Speaker 3: some ranks, some early ranks that have popped out, and

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Speaker 3: it's because people are worried about the strikeouts. So where

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Speaker 3: that is going to take away from the top end.

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Speaker 3: He had a two forty XBA, which doesn't leave a

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Speaker 3: lot of room for big batting average. But if he's

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Speaker 3: hitting two forty, that's great. Launch angle was crazy low,

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Speaker 3: but it reminded me of Vlad Junior, where Vlad Junior

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Speaker 3: in his rookie year was like hitting really really hard,

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Speaker 3: but couldn't get the ball in the air. Ellie had

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Speaker 3: a three point six degree launch angle, which you got

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Speaker 3: to get the ball in the air if you're going

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Speaker 3: to really take advantage of those homers. But good hard

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Speaker 3: hit numbers, good barrel numbers. You tied for one of

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Speaker 3: the fastest players, actually tied with Bobby Witt for the

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Speaker 3: fastest sprint speed in the league. But he is going

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Speaker 3: to have a wide range of outcomes, not only in

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Speaker 3: his production but where he's drafted in leagues, And it

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Speaker 3: just kind of comes probably about the construction that you're

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Speaker 3: putting in. I'm likely not going to have a lot

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Speaker 3: of shares. I would love Ellie in the third, he

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Speaker 3: will cost you a second. And if he costs you

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Speaker 3: a third, I think you can stomach it, especially if

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Speaker 3: you put together something like a I don't know, Freeman

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Speaker 3: Endeavors or a Freeman and Riley, or you could have

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Speaker 3: a Freeman in an outfielder put together there. I think

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Speaker 3: they're definitely constructions that you can do. But he has

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Speaker 3: number one overall player upside, and that's why he has

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Speaker 3: a men pick of eleven. But he also has the

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Speaker 3: potential to be outside the top one hundred and fall

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Speaker 3: apart with those crazy strikeout numbers, which you know is

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Speaker 3: probably going to push him in some leagues outside the

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Speaker 3: top fifty. So he breaks boards across the board. But

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Speaker 3: what is interesting is over the last two months he's

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Speaker 3: falling down even in the big high money leagues where

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Speaker 3: people are taking shots.

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Speaker 1: I like that, breaking boards all over the boards, all

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Speaker 1: over the boards. That's Walsh has a number three for

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Speaker 1: the season, number two on our list. Pablo Lopez of

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Speaker 1: the Minnesota Twins, coming off a year with his highest

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Speaker 1: strikeout rate in recent memory in his career NFBC ADP

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Speaker 1: of thirty seven. It was forty six in October. So

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Speaker 1: he's moving up a little bit right now in the

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pro's early ranks. Again, this is a guy who's

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Speaker 1: a top ten pitcher. He's ranked eighth overall and the

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Speaker 1: expert consensus ranks right now with Fantasy Pros, and again

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Speaker 1: you cannot deny Welsh. Last year was very eye opening,

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Speaker 1: you might even say a breakthrough. The era was at

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Speaker 1: three to seven. But when you dig deeper into things,

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Speaker 1: you'll see that the XCRA was at three, the X

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Speaker 1: fIF was a three twenty five. So there's even a

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Speaker 1: better version here of Pablo Lopez to be had. And

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Speaker 1: Minnesota is a team that still looks to be very

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Speaker 1: competitive this year despite some of the shortcomings of the

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Speaker 1: American League Central at times that we've all joked about.

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Speaker 1: But Pablo Lopez is one of these guys you have

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Speaker 1: to believe whether or not this guy is an ACE

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Speaker 1: or not to draft him at this current top ten

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Speaker 1: SP value, that's the big question.

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Speaker 2: I know some people aren't sold on that.

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Speaker 1: I feel pretty good about it, and I still feel

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Speaker 1: like he's going late enough where that's one of the

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Speaker 1: two guys I'd like to pair with somebody else.

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Speaker 2: I like him as a pairing.

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Speaker 1: Like if you give me Pablo Lopez and then a

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Speaker 1: little bit later, maybe the guy we're gonna talk about next,

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Speaker 1: or maybe a shot at Yamamoto or a Logan Web,

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Speaker 1: that's good start to a rotation.

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Speaker 2: But what do you think about Pablo?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think one of the things talking about

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Speaker 3: what you're saying is there's actually some good safety pitchers

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Speaker 3: that go a little bit later. I personally am big

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Speaker 3: into George Kirby this year, but you'd probably have to

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Speaker 3: go back to back Lopez and Kirby. But you can

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Speaker 3: get like a Logan Gilbert a little bit later. Zach

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Speaker 3: Eflin is a really safe option Logan Web. So if

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Speaker 3: you wanted to go, you know, third round Pablo Lopez,

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Speaker 3: you have the potential to swoop in and get like

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Speaker 3: a six round Logan Web and that's pretty good. But

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Speaker 3: you know, you're saying in the consistent consensus ranks, he's

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Speaker 3: coming in at eight. He's going as high as a

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Speaker 3: third sp in NFBC leagues, and it's because of not

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Speaker 3: only what he did, but what a lot of the

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Speaker 3: expected numbers are saying he can get too. Again, that

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Speaker 3: expected era was one of the better jumps, three and

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Speaker 3: a half down to three. The strikeout number is close

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Speaker 3: to elite twenty nine point two percent with a low

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Speaker 3: walk rate. And one of the biggest reasons behind all

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Speaker 3: of this was the change that he made. He added

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Speaker 3: velocity to his fastball, which made that better. You don't

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Speaker 3: see fastballs with really really high wift rates a whole bunch. Well,

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Speaker 3: he had a thirty one and a half percent with rate.

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Speaker 3: Usually that's on the secondaries twenty three percent with rate

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two over thirty percent with rate on

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Speaker 3: a four seen fastball crazy. But he added a sweeper

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Speaker 3: and that changed the game. It was his number one

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Speaker 3: whift pitch thirty six point six percent and he threw

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Speaker 3: it twenty one percent of the time. Previous year he

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Speaker 3: was fastball change up. This year fastball sweeper change up,

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Speaker 3: and even through a higher propensity of curveballs and sinkers.

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Speaker 3: So the whole point of this is is there is

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Speaker 3: a lot of strikeout potential. He gave himself a strikeout pitch.

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Speaker 3: He added velo and expected numbers are telling a better story.

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Speaker 3: So people are anticipating the expected numbers to have a

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Speaker 3: bigger year. If you think he's going to be top five,

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Speaker 3: you're kind of getting a discount. But this is one

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Speaker 3: of those situations. I kind of feel that, like the

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Speaker 3: you're already buying him at the price of where he

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Speaker 3: is going to push, so it's like you.

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Speaker 2: Have to return the value at eight.

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Speaker 3: He has to be better to return the val value

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Speaker 3: of what you're paying for, So that makes a little dicey,

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Speaker 3: But he is one of those guys. This is another

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Speaker 3: one of those instances, he has risen of draft boards.

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Speaker 3: I think you said the number a little bit ago.

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Speaker 3: I think he was. Yeah, he was forty six in

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Speaker 3: October overall, and he's jumped into the mid thirties and

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Speaker 3: he's pushing into the twenties on his mid midpick. So

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Speaker 3: if you want Pablo Lopez in those strikeouts, you're gonna

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Speaker 3: have to pay a lot. And he's gonna open some

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Speaker 3: eyes when you see him in the draft room.

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Speaker 1: He's thirty nine right now on Fantasy Pros, ahead of

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Speaker 1: Zach Gallen Tyler Glass, now, which I can understand why.

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Speaker 2: But that is an interesting.

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Speaker 1: Debate, and maybe the best piece of advice is they're

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Speaker 1: all pretty close.

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Speaker 2: Maybe just take the guy that falls ye of the

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Speaker 2: best value.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's probably when we start getting into

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Speaker 1: our draft season or the shows, you're probably gonna see

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Speaker 1: me doing a lot of that. Like I like these

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Speaker 1: guys this grouping, just like I liked him last year

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Speaker 1: and I attacked them hard in all those drafts, and

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Speaker 1: I think the same thing here as you attack this grouping,

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Speaker 1: because there isn't that much of a difference between them all.

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Speaker 3: And to your point, and this is a little bit different.

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Speaker 3: But in that DC I had Pablo Lopez went in

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Speaker 3: a third round and I swooped back and I didn't

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Speaker 3: take a picture in my first three, and then the

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Speaker 3: fourth round George Kirby felt to me and I took

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Speaker 3: Kirby and it was like it was Pablo, then Gallon,

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Speaker 3: and then I.

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Speaker 2: Just fund because Kirby's ranked ahead on Fantasy Bros.

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Speaker 3: Of Bablo Lopez, and I'm probably one of those reasons

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Speaker 3: because because I have them above now, Lopez is the

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Speaker 3: better strikeout option and there's a big push to chase

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Speaker 3: your strikeouts this year. But there's something about Kirby specifically

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Speaker 3: to me that has such a such a great floor.

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Speaker 3: I feel like I can take more risks with guys

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Speaker 3: like Glass now or the guy we're just about to

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Speaker 3: talk about. If you wanted to maybe go back to

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Speaker 3: back round pitchers.

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Speaker 1: Well three Schooble is that guy at number three NFBC

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Speaker 1: ADP of fifty overall. And last year what a finish

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Speaker 1: to the season. He had eighty innings, he was seven

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Speaker 1: to three, one hundred strikeouts, just fourteen walks, a two

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Speaker 1: eight zero era, a point nine zero whip, and you

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Speaker 1: think will that era is unsustainable. You might be wrong

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Speaker 1: because the XCRA was two three zero two feasts two

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Speaker 1: five six excuse me for the x FIP, so it's

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Speaker 1: not a fluke here. Teri Scooble was straight up dominant

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Speaker 1: and in terms of left handed starting pitchers, one of

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Speaker 1: the best in baseball last year over those final eighty

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Speaker 1: innings that he threw. Now, the question is what does

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Speaker 1: it look like over the full season. That's what we

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Speaker 1: want to see Kenny sustain this sort of pace. He

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Speaker 1: was good in twenty twenty two, the three three seven era,

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Speaker 1: so a lot of people liked him going in. Secondary

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Speaker 1: numbers were good, peripherals were good, the whip was decent.

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Speaker 2: This was a whole other level.

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Speaker 1: So if he finishes with one hundred and sixty five

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Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy five innings this year, with something

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Speaker 1: between twenty twenty two and twenty three twenty three, I

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Speaker 1: think he returns the value of this pick.

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Speaker 2: But what do you think, Welsh?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually think this one is really interesting because

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Speaker 3: it's like it's near Pablo Lopez, but it's quite a

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Speaker 3: bit lower. Treek School's got so much going for him,

303
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Speaker 3: you know, the stuff was incredible. I think it was

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Speaker 3: like the highest expected era total. If he qualified of

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Speaker 3: pictures of the eighty or more innings, he would have

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Speaker 3: been number one. The k percentage was absolutely elite, pulling

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Speaker 3: that up thirty two point nine percent with a sub

308
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Speaker 3: five percent walk rate. That's like exactly what you want.

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Speaker 3: That is what you want in this world of pitching,

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Speaker 3: especially if you're gonna try to jump into the strikeout marker.

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Speaker 3: Good fastball almost ninety six, which was almost two miles

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Speaker 3: per hour more than the previous year. His change up

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Speaker 3: absolutely elite. Had a fifty percent whiff rate, one of

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Speaker 3: a handful of pitchers and all of baseball that had

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Speaker 3: a fifty percent withff rate on a dominant pitch. We've

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Speaker 3: talked about them over the last couple episodes, so I

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Speaker 3: love trikes Scooble. One of the only knocks though, is

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Speaker 3: the people that he faced. He had like a one

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Speaker 3: point something ra at home in a four era away.

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Speaker 3: That's one little marker because Detroit was a really pitcher

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Speaker 3: friendly environment. But also if you look at his pitching log,

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Speaker 3: here are the teams that he faced in the month

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Speaker 3: of August. The White Sox, the Boat actually two White

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Speaker 3: Sox Angels, A's and Royals. The month prior to that,

325
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Speaker 3: you did have Yankees and Cubs, but you had Guardians,

326
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Speaker 3: Red Sox and Rays. You know, the end the season

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Speaker 3: is central.

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Speaker 2: In the Central soft anyway.

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Speaker 1: So like for no period, I look at that and

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Speaker 1: I'm like, well, he's gonna get those teams again, And

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Speaker 1: like if he was pitching in the American League East, maybe.

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Speaker 2: I'd have a little bit more of a concern, right or.

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Speaker 1: You know, but you know, he's gonna get a lot

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Speaker 1: of Royals and a lot of Guardians and a lot

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Speaker 1: of you know all.

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Speaker 3: You want to talk about breaking these draft boards, you

337
00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:24,360
Speaker 3: got to break one. Who are you going with Pablo

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Speaker 3: Lopez in the third or trick School in the fourth?

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Speaker 1: Uh? You know again, if I'm going, I'm you know me,

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Speaker 1: I'm going hitter early one too. So if I want

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Speaker 1: to double up on pitching, I like having both of them.

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Speaker 1: But I think I keep coming back to the same thing,

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Speaker 1: which is I'm gonna take the guy that's cheaper. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if I'm ready to make Schooble my ace.

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Speaker 1: So once again, if I did take Schooble I would

346
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Speaker 1: probably want to pair him up right away. If I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna have Schooble. I want to also have, as I said,

348
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Speaker 1: a Logan Web who I trust, a Framber Valdez who

349
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Speaker 1: I really trust. You know, do they have the same

350
00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:57,000
Speaker 1: upside as Garrett Cole? No, but I know who they are.

351
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Speaker 1: I feel good about it, and I want that pairing together.

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Speaker 1: I feel very important, like about three four five, if

353
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Speaker 1: I can await with two pitchers there that I feel

354
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Speaker 1: really good about. Is the top two guys in my

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Speaker 1: rotation two one a's or two high end number twos,

356
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Speaker 1: however you want to talk about it, That's my approach,

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Speaker 1: just like it was last year, because again you keep

358
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Speaker 1: seeing the injury factory, keep seeing the turnover.

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Speaker 2: You see these guys were aging out.

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Speaker 1: These veterans that were so used to the Verlanders and

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Speaker 1: the Shuress at the top of the board. Those days

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Speaker 1: are gone, and the guys that are coming are not

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Speaker 1: quite established yet. So you've got to be really careful

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Speaker 1: because it is kind of a it's a very murky

365
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Speaker 1: water because if you put too much draft capital into

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Speaker 1: these guys, they don't pan out. You miss that on

367
00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:34,960
Speaker 1: that offense, and it really does set you back in

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Speaker 1: these deeper leagues.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and another thing we talked about in the previous episode,

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Speaker 3: like if you tuned out early, there are things that

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Speaker 3: are a lot of these guys that are breaking these

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Speaker 3: draft boards that we're talking about. These are things that

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Speaker 3: might be kind of new to you, like, oh, I'm

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Speaker 3: paying maybe second round for Pablo Lopez and oh Tarik

375
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Speaker 3: Schoobles here, but you're gonna have to take more shots

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Speaker 3: this year and you're gonna have to just be paying

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Speaker 3: attention to your construction. Scooble is another one of those

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Speaker 3: players where you can balance out some of the inherent risk.

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Speaker 3: And the only inherent risk here, lastly, is just the

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Speaker 3: amount of time that he's been able to do this.

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Speaker 3: It's sample size eighty innings. Though he was phenomenal last

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Speaker 3: year in a good hitter environment, he is worth it

383
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Speaker 3: and you can break those boards a little bit for

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Speaker 3: trick school.

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Speaker 2: Now, one guy that we are already in disagreement with.

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Speaker 1: If you listen to the last show and go back

387
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Speaker 1: and listen to it, you can watch on YouTube also

388
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Speaker 1: Nolan Jones, NFBC ADP of fifty seven right now. So

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Speaker 1: Welsh is not as big of a fan as I am,

390
00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,360
Speaker 1: and that's okay. We can disagree on things here on

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Speaker 1: the program. This guy at a twenty twenty season in

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Speaker 1: one hundred games, and I understand that it's in course field.

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Speaker 2: I get that, but still playing at course field in

394
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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: So the soon to be twenty six year old Nolan

396
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Speaker 1: Jones as a player that last year in TRIPAA at

397
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Speaker 1: twelve homers forty two RBI hit three fifty six with

398
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Speaker 1: an eleven hundred ops. Granted it was in the PCL,

399
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Speaker 1: but again, you can't help where you play. Todd Helton

400
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,560
Speaker 1: played his whole career in Colorado, and damn it, Todd

401
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Speaker 1: Helton was fun to have in fantasy. So I'm looking

402
00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:01,280
Speaker 1: at Nolan Jones, look at the versatility of the guy,

403
00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:03,600
Speaker 1: and I'm looking at what he can deliver, and I

404
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,920
Speaker 1: think this is pretty appropriate looking around where he's going

405
00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:10,399
Speaker 1: right now, after Cody Bellinger, before Paul Goldschmidt, right now

406
00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:14,159
Speaker 1: in our ECR. That feels right to me. What about you,

407
00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,240
Speaker 1: I know you've had some hesitations, but comes to Nolan Joes.

408
00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:18,359
Speaker 1: So let's let's have a bigger conversation about him here

409
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:19,520
Speaker 1: since we can today.

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00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,080
Speaker 3: This actually might be like the number one hitter that

411
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,560
Speaker 3: is going to open up draft boards because people want him,

412
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:29,399
Speaker 3: and similar to Pablo Lopez, Nolan Jones is the Pablo

413
00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:33,719
Speaker 3: Lopez of hitters this year because everything underlying tells this

414
00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,520
Speaker 3: story outside of like XBA. Like his XBA isn't great.

415
00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:40,120
Speaker 3: He had a really good statistical season this past year

416
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 3: where he hit two ninety seven with a twenty twenty.

417
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,680
Speaker 3: His XBA is like fifty points lower. But if he

418
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,280
Speaker 3: hit two fifty, we're still gonna take him. But what

419
00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,040
Speaker 3: I'm getting at is, like Max ev was one fifteen,

420
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,080
Speaker 3: he had good hard hit numbers overall, walk was there,

421
00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,439
Speaker 3: barrel percentage over fifteen percent, You totally want that with

422
00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,960
Speaker 3: good hard hit numbers. So all of those things played

423
00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:03,000
Speaker 3: this really good story in a hitter friendly environment. He

424
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,520
Speaker 3: hit all sides of pitching well by the way. He

425
00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,040
Speaker 3: hit fastballs and breaking pitches over three.

426
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Speaker 1: Hundred lefties and righties over two eighty nine on both

427
00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:12,800
Speaker 1: of them three four, which is against left headed pitching.

428
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Speaker 3: And he broke the curse of not being reliant on Colorado.

429
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,560
Speaker 3: He had as many homers away as he did at home.

430
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:21,919
Speaker 1: My problem is and a nine hundred ops on the

431
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Speaker 1: home roads spot too so and hitting for average also,

432
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Speaker 1: so I don't get the concern about Nolan Jones because

433
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Speaker 1: if those numbers were more stark Welsh, then I would say, yeah,

434
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:34,040
Speaker 1: you're right, that's kind of a red flag.

435
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Speaker 2: But I don't see the red flag here when it

436
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:36,800
Speaker 2: comes to Nolan Well.

437
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,080
Speaker 3: I mean one of the okay, well, one of the

438
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:40,040
Speaker 3: red flags is are the strikeout numbers. I want to

439
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,200
Speaker 3: pull this up here because this isn't on the baseball now.

440
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:44,000
Speaker 1: I feel like that's something we all have to accept,

441
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,160
Speaker 1: whether it's Eli cr whether it's.

442
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:47,960
Speaker 3: You're not wrong about that, but part of it now.

443
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,240
Speaker 3: But Nolan Jones is also this like really high end passive.

444
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,800
Speaker 3: He's one of those guys do you matter, like Carlos Santana,

445
00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:56,200
Speaker 3: where Carlos Santana would have like a really big OVP

446
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,400
Speaker 3: and big strikeout numbers, because it's like the two outcomer,

447
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 3: the three out guy. They walk, they strike out, or

448
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:03,520
Speaker 3: they get a hit. And I know that seems silly

449
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,159
Speaker 3: how I'm saying it, but it's like there's not a

450
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 3: lot of nuance in the game. It's gonna happen as

451
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:10,920
Speaker 3: one of those. So the passiveness can also equate to

452
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,520
Speaker 3: lower batting average because he's not gonna He's not gonna

453
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:15,760
Speaker 3: he's gonna take more walks than he is just getting

454
00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:17,600
Speaker 3: base hits. He kind of changed it this last year,

455
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:19,840
Speaker 3: but I'll throw here's one caveat. He had a four

456
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 3: hundred babbit that is like the highest in the league,

457
00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 3: one of the highest babbitbs in the league. With expected

458
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,679
Speaker 3: numbers across the board that say it's gonna fall do

459
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:29,560
Speaker 3: I think Nolan Jones is not gonna be good. No,

460
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,800
Speaker 3: Colorado's a great baseline. He puts a big, hard hit numbers.

461
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,400
Speaker 3: I love how he barrels. There's a lot advantage there.

462
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 3: He doesn't pull the ball a bunch. Expected numbers don't

463
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,120
Speaker 3: play in as well. The babbit is way too high,

464
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 3: and I think he's gonna come back down to earth.

465
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:46,440
Speaker 3: I think people are paying for him in the fifties

466
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 3: as a thirty thirty guy. I think you need to

467
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 3: pay for him closer as a twenty twenty guy, like

468
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,920
Speaker 3: he performed last year over a full season, and then

469
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 3: you can stomach it. Now, does a twenty twenty Nolan

470
00:19:56,280 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 3: Jones feel good in the fifties. Maybe maybe it's still does.

471
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 3: I'm not as enamored as everybody else is with him,

472
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 3: though there is a story, as I mentioned, of why

473
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,120
Speaker 3: you would like him in all of those underlying numbers.

474
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 3: He is someone that eight out of ten people in

475
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:17,479
Speaker 3: a draft want on their team. He will go higher

476
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 3: than consensus. I would guess seventy to eighty percent of

477
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 3: the time in drafts.

478
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:25,040
Speaker 1: Of this year barrels per played appearance percentage, he was

479
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,480
Speaker 1: twenty fourth in baseball last year year. I think that

480
00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 1: accounts for some of that high babbit that you're talking about,

481
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,080
Speaker 1: like you're gonna have a better bat. This is where

482
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:35,960
Speaker 1: you know you take that one step further with the

483
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:37,919
Speaker 1: deep stats. And deep SATs are great, but sometimes they

484
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:39,159
Speaker 1: make my head hurt, and I'm sure a lot of

485
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 1: people who love fantasy baseball it makes their head hurt too.

486
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 1: If you hit the ball hard, it's gonna find a

487
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 1: lot more spots, and you're gonna have a higher babbit

488
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:46,880
Speaker 1: because you're hitting the ball so dam hard.

489
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, and if you're fast and wills too. I'm not

490
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 3: arguing any of that. I'm really pointing at a really

491
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 3: high babbit in a short sample size. Sure that that

492
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 3: kind of looks a little bit as a warning sign

493
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:02,640
Speaker 3: with really high strikeout numbers still I mean.

494
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 2: Five this year and he maintains the power speed levels.

495
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,680
Speaker 2: I'll take that at this ADP all that day, and that.

496
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 3: Is his projected Steamer batting average two sixty five. So

497
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 3: I agree with you on that it will work. But

498
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 3: there's some things are going to work here. This is

499
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 3: why boards are crazy around Nolan Jones one under.

500
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,040
Speaker 1: Bobby Miller is the next guy on our list, number

501
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:24,879
Speaker 1: five to talk about the Dodgers young starting pitcher. NFBC

502
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 1: ADP is at seventy three right now. Bobby Miller last

503
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,280
Speaker 1: year twenty two stars for the Dodgers. He was eleven

504
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 1: and four. Obviously pitching on a very good team, a

505
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 1: three seven six era. The whip was at one point

506
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 1: one zero for him. Last year he had the caper

507
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 1: nine was at eight point six, which if you go

508
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,160
Speaker 1: back to the minor league level, it's around eleven for him.

509
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 1: So that's the one thing for me about Bobby Miller

510
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:46,879
Speaker 1: is like I kind of want to see the elite

511
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 1: K guy. You know how I am strikeoutser sexy. I

512
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 1: like my pictures strikeout guys because that means they get

513
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 1: out of jams with big pitches at big times. Now,

514
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,159
Speaker 1: he was tough to hit two just one hundred and

515
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 1: five hits at one hundred and twenty four innings. That's

516
00:21:57,840 --> 00:21:59,679
Speaker 1: also an important one too, so he made up for that.

517
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 1: The wall great was low two point three. So it's

518
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 1: Bobby Muller got you're buying in here. He doesn't have

519
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: a lot of pressure on him because he got Yamamoto,

520
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 1: you got Glass. Now we'll see what Walker Bueller, whether

521
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 1: or not Kershaw returns. We're still waiting on that news.

522
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 1: But Miller doesn't have a lot of pressure on him

523
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 1: per se. But do you think the ADP is worth

524
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 1: the investment?

525
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:18,640
Speaker 2: Yeah?

526
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 3: I do. And this is one of those guys that

527
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 3: has been he's creeping, he's creeping up. These people want

528
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 3: to they want to be invested in in him. You know,

529
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,639
Speaker 3: you talk about the strikeout numbers two thousand and two below.

530
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 3: He had never had under a ten point seven K

531
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 3: per nine in the minor leagues. He's always been a

532
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 3: high strikeout guy across the minders with a big, big

533
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 3: power fastball. Then you know there, I mean, there was

534
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 3: only four starts in triple A this year. There's a

535
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:43,679
Speaker 3: little bit of a change in the process. And then

536
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 3: you saw all the K numbers go lower, but I'll

537
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 3: take that if this is about becoming just a better,

538
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,439
Speaker 3: more nuanced pitcher. I've said this a whole bunch, so

539
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 3: apologies to people, but if you're just tuning in one

540
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 3: of the things I've loved about Bobby Miller. He's one

541
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 3: of three starting pitchers according to stuff plus numbers, which

542
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 3: Inina Sarus has in this over on fangrafs want of

543
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 3: three pitchers to have a fastball that has a one

544
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 3: twenty five plus stuff plus and a secondary which in

545
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 3: this case is like I think is slider that has

546
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 3: a won twenty five. But he also has five pitches

547
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 3: that graded out at one hundred stuff plus or higher,

548
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 3: and that is just one hundred is like the median line.

549
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 3: These are above average pitches he has with good control

550
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 3: numbers that he threw out to us this year, a

551
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 3: great fastball which is kind of key, which you really want.

552
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 3: Ninety nine point one he averaged on his four seam fastball.

553
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 3: And it's really going to just be about utilizing these

554
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 3: secondary pitches because he is throwing five pitches fifteen percent

555
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 3: or more of the time. So you take a history

556
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:45,360
Speaker 3: of strikeouts with great stuff numbers, good utilage of pitches

557
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 3: and put it on the Dodgers. For me, Yeah, I'm

558
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 3: gonna buy Bobby Miller. I want all the shares he

559
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 3: is rising. He's one of those guys that I think

560
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 3: a lot of people are also targeting that want on

561
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 3: their teams. This is a tough one. He he is

562
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 3: one of those young pitchers in this pool of the

563
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,360
Speaker 3: Yuri Perez Is, the Grayson Rodriguez is, and the Bobby Millers.

564
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,880
Speaker 3: These guys all kind of break the boards in general.

565
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 3: They are gonna be high risers. Bobby Miller is one

566
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 3: that I definitely wanted to get in on, you know,

567
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 3: and you talked about it earlier. There is a team context.

568
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 3: Treike Scooble, even though we're picking on like oh we

569
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 3: faced the Royals and stuff, good because he's always gonna

570
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 3: face him because he's in the division. That's a good

571
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,199
Speaker 3: thing that he's doing that. Well, guess what, Bobby Miller's

572
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,679
Speaker 3: on the Dodgers. There's gonna be run support every single game,

573
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 3: every single game that's out there. And the division that

574
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 3: also has like the Rockies and stuff. So yeah, I

575
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 3: will break my board all day long for Bobby Miller.

576
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:36,479
Speaker 2: All right.

577
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 1: Jazz Chishom and the next guy, number six we're gonna

578
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: talk about NFBC seventy six was sixty one back in October,

579
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 1: but now he's at seventy six, So a little bit

580
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:45,479
Speaker 1: of a fall there, and I understand why. I mean,

581
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 1: you look at the body of work here, it's a

582
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 1: lot of incompletes for Jazz Chism. Moving to the outfield too,

583
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 1: now he does qualifying a lot of leagues. Still at

584
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: second base, you'll se him on the rankings their Fantasy pros.

585
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 1: But last year nineteen homers in ninety six games, twenty

586
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 1: two steals.

587
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: He's a two fifty hitter. I think we all know

588
00:24:59,000 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 2: what he is at this point.

589
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 1: We seen enough of them to know, like that's where

590
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 1: the batting average is going to be. The question is

591
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 1: to get a full season, ever, and the full season

592
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 1: does that equate to a thirty to thirty guy? And

593
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,360
Speaker 1: if so, then you're getting kind of a huge discount.

594
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 1: It's just a matter of the risk reward. Where do

595
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 1: you standwi Chism?

596
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, you said it perfectly. You know what I

597
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 3: think is really funny The trend in early drafts are

598
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 3: is drafters are just so much less worried about sample size,

599
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 3: and repeat of production that they can trust versus injuries.

600
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 3: They'll take a guy that had forty innings or one

601
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:35,679
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty at bats or was good for a

602
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 3: final month of the year exponentially over a player that

603
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 3: has any injury risk. And that is how early drafts

604
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 3: work and how and then what that does is that

605
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 3: tends to drive what the future price is going to

606
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,640
Speaker 3: look like. And as you mentioned, Jazz is moving down.

607
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 3: Jazz has moved over a full round or in a

608
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 3: fifteen team redal, he has moved a full round spot

609
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,080
Speaker 3: wise over the last couple months, and we're going to

610
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,919
Speaker 3: take that into the draft season. My only question, we are,

611
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 3: like you said, we know exactly who he is. He

612
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,439
Speaker 3: had a dog crap I expected batting average two twenty

613
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 3: four this year, but we know he is a two

614
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 3: forty to two fifty hitter with high strikeouts. But we

615
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 3: also know the counting stats will be there, you know,

616
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,679
Speaker 3: whether it's whatever the runs and RBIs look like or

617
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 3: relative to the games out there. But there isn't a

618
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 3: production question. Can he be a thirty thirty guy? It's there.

619
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 3: He does it even in his struggles. I'm actually down

620
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 3: with this. I am down with this, But I think

621
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 3: this is the one, and this is why we identify this.

622
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 3: You know, in this episode of breaking draft boards and stuff,

623
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 3: Jazz Chisholm falling is wild. In a world where people

624
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 3: are taking big risks to get their stolen bases, a

625
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 3: guy like Nolan Jones with a four hundred babbb and

626
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,880
Speaker 3: is a twenty twenty guy people are pushing into the forties.

627
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 3: The guy like Jazz Chisholm, who in his sleep is

628
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 3: a thirty thirty guy who has strikeout issues and it's

629
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 3: probably a two or two to fifty hitter. People are

630
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 3: dropping and dropping. I'm gonna take when I'm t my shots,

631
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 3: Jazz will be one. I'm willing to take the risk

632
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:03,639
Speaker 3: on the injury stuff.

633
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 1: Number seven on our list Josh Young n FBCADP at

634
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,439
Speaker 1: one to ten. It wasn't ninety three. So this is

635
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 1: another guy that's starting to go in the opposite direction.

636
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 2: Now. To our credit, Welsh, we loved Young last.

637
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 1: Year because he was a free square and we took

638
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 1: him everywhere yea, and we looked like geniuses for the

639
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: first eighty games or so because he had nineteen homers

640
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 1: in the first half fifty six Reees hit two to

641
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 1: eighty with one of the guys at the top of

642
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 1: the board for Rookie of the Year in the American League,

643
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 1: and then the bottom kind of fell out second half.

644
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 1: He played only thirty four games, so obviously health was

645
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 1: an issue there too. Four homers, the batting average dropt

646
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 1: from two eighty to two twenty nine, the ops one

647
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:37,880
Speaker 1: from eight thirty five to six thirty eight.

648
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:39,919
Speaker 2: So definitely some issues there.

649
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 1: You could tie it to, you know, struggling a little

650
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 1: bit against the right handed pitching, especially down the stretch.

651
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 1: He still hit fourteen on runs against the right handed pitching,

652
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 1: but that was a problem. The overall picture looks good,

653
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 1: but now the draft stock is starting to decline. Do

654
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 1: you think that's correct?

655
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 3: You know, I actually think we're kind of stabilizing a

656
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 3: little bit with him, Like this is one of those

657
00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 3: well so you know, conceptually when we're talking about these

658
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 3: boards again, like Josh Young is one of those players

659
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 3: that I think a lot of people were like, oh,

660
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 3: if I could have a little bit late, maybe I

661
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 3: would target him. I'm not as enamored with him, I

662
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,159
Speaker 3: think again, you give me like really high strikeout stuff

663
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 3: with a especially with a guy that is a complete devot.

664
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:17,120
Speaker 3: He's devot of stolen bases. So then you're you see

665
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 3: one category is gone, and then you go, okay, do

666
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 3: you believe the batting average? Expect a batting average two sixty?

667
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 3: All right, so batting average isn't a negative, but it's

668
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:27,479
Speaker 3: just not quite there. Overperformed on his counting stats with

669
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 3: some injury stuff, counting stats from like RBI in runs

670
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 3: that team just scored so many runs. But can he

671
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 3: hit thirty homers? Yeah? Absolutely, that's one hundred percent in

672
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 3: his game in the nineties eighties. Did you want to

673
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 3: really want to pay for that? No, But we're having

674
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 3: the same jazz chism thing happen. There's such an overcorrection

675
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 3: happening where people might have waited before, Oh I can

676
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 3: get Josh Young, Now they don't want to. Now you

677
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 3: kind of can You can look back and say, hey,

678
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,719
Speaker 3: if I can post one hundred, if my risk is

679
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 3: you know, the World Series contending top three run producing team,

680
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 3: if I can get the corner infielder that is going

681
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 3: to hit me to sixty two seventy eighty plus both

682
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 3: sides and thirty homers, that's a much better risk. The

683
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 3: injuries are concerned. He had two different injuries that were

684
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 3: going on zapped a little bit of the production, but

685
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 3: is not enamored as I am with Josh Young post

686
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 3: one hundred. I think the correction is going in the

687
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 3: wrong area and that is kind of an advantage for

688
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 3: people as you are in your draft constructing and looking

689
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 3: on you Actually, I think can now look to like, oh,

690
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 3: Josh Young is a backup for me because he is

691
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 3: falling down wark That is a dramatic What is that

692
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 3: almost twenty spots over the last like two months or

693
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 3: three months. That's a big drop.

694
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 2: Sure, yeah, that's a big drop, and it's understandable.

695
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: Look, there's also a lot of buzz coming around after

696
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 1: you know, the team won the World Series and again

697
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 1: that first half was so good. You know, you're trying

698
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 1: to figure out did he get figured out? Did not

699
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 1: make adjustments?

700
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 2: Was just health? Like?

701
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 1: What was it the wear and tear? He had had

702
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 1: some injuries previously too, missed an entire season, So was

703
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 1: it just.

704
00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 2: The stamina issue too?

705
00:29:58,560 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: Like, There's a lot of things you could start to

706
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 1: ask yourself those questions, But I think you're right. I

707
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 1: think the assessment of the ADP is correct for and.

708
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 3: I wrote about him in The Black Book. People want

709
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 3: to check it out, The Fantasy Black Book available now

710
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 3: on Amazon. This I did the infield and he was

711
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,479
Speaker 3: one of those guys where you know, I'm really focused

712
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 3: on the strikeout rate. I did point out something you

713
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 3: can take a look at, was he really dominated on

714
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 3: like inside portions of the zone. But I think pitchers

715
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 3: are going to see that he was well below average

716
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 3: on both the outside portions of the zone on the

717
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 3: top and bottom. So I think you're going to get

718
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 3: pictures that are going to be tacking the outside even more.

719
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 3: And he has a really bad poll rate, So what

720
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 3: is that going to look like If he gets more

721
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 3: outside zone pitching and he's not pulling the ball. I

722
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 3: worry that that's going to equate to not as dramatically

723
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 3: high results. But again, I like the overcorrection. This is

724
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 3: why the overcorrection is good for Josh Young.

725
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 1: All right, let's see what's gonna be good for the

726
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 1: Brewers young superstar Jackson Curio, who we all believe is

727
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: going to start with the big cull. Otherwise why would

728
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 1: you pay him with that giant extension? So I'm sure

729
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 1: the players Union wanted him to wait, but when people

730
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 1: were offering you guaranteed money of that magnitude, it's hard

731
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 1: to say no when you're just the boy and he

732
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 1: is still and that's the one thing you got a

733
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: timber expectations. The NFBC ADP right now for him is

734
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 1: one forty five in Churio last year. Just in case

735
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 1: you weren't paying attention in the dynasty realm to Jackson

736
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 1: Curio in the redraft scenario, now you're gonna have to

737
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: because in double A last year he had twenty two

738
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 1: homers forty three stone bases at two to eighty just

739
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: an eight h three OPS. He had six games over

740
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three. He did play in the Fall

741
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 1: League this year too, where he hit three seventy nine

742
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 1: with a nine to eighty four OPS the winning league.

743
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: Pardon me, in the Winter League. My apologies, but Cheerio

744
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 1: is a player that is going to get a ton

745
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 1: of attention, and rightfully so.

746
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 2: The guy's got power, he is young.

747
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 1: You're talking about a guy who could switch it like

748
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 1: you're talking about a guy who could do it all.

749
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 1: So this is a really exciting young player here. So

750
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: what do you think about Jackson Curio in terms of

751
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: his twenty twenty four redraft value, because I think that's

752
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: the thing that we're all trying to figure out.

753
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 2: And and part it's not about loving the talent or not.

754
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 2: It's about loving the talent in this situation he's in.

755
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, So let's get back to the concept of this episode.

756
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 3: You want the real players. They're gonna break your boards

757
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 3: the next three or them, because their ADPs are so

758
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 3: low in a lot of these pre draft things, in

759
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 3: specifically in NFBC leagues and any league, because there's there's

760
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,479
Speaker 3: no lack of assurance that they are there. We assume

761
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:23,719
Speaker 3: they are, but people want that little step. If Jackson

762
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 3: Trio is named the outfielder, let's just arbitrarrily say March first.

763
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 3: They say, you know what, it's his job, Like Julio

764
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 3: Rodriguez from a previous year two years ago, where he

765
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 3: went from you know, two twenties up into the like

766
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 3: high one hundreds, pushing inside the top one hundred, Trio

767
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 3: will do the same thing. Trio is already kind of

768
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 3: being presumed in that area inside the top one fifty.

769
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 3: But don't get confused. The possibility is that he could

770
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 3: go higher inside the top one hundred because this is

771
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 3: a twenty twenty guy. Key key factor for him was

772
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 3: lowering his strikeout rate previous year twenty twenty two, twenty

773
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 3: eight percent strike out rate in High A, twenty two

774
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 3: in I'm Sorry in A, twenty two in High A,

775
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 3: and then he went to Double A and struck out

776
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 3: a whole bunch in a very short sample size under

777
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 3: nineteen percent at Double A in twenty twenty three. Big power,

778
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 3: huge stolen bases showed the ability to cut the strikeouts down.

779
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 3: Steamer projection in one hundred and twenty eight games has

780
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 3: got him just under a twenty twenty guy. I think

781
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 3: this is a great bet for twenty twenty season, a

782
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 3: good Rookie of the Year candidate. I think he will

783
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 3: break with the team, and he doesn't cost you a

784
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 3: top one hundred. That's why this breaks up this whole thing.

785
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 3: When you can get these type of discounts early, you

786
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 3: do it when things stabilize. I think he'll still be

787
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 3: worth a top one hundred pick when we get into

788
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 3: the seventy fives and sixties and stuff like that. That's

789
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 3: where things get a little bit dicey. But just remember

790
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 3: that's where guys like Bobby Witt and Corvin Carroll pushed

791
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 3: inside the top fifty, you're getting a discount. This breaks

792
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 3: the whole mold.

793
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 1: I misspoke earlier too. He's a right handed batter and

794
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 1: not switch hitter. So I was just so excited about Jurio.

795
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: I forgot that for a second. But you know when

796
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,479
Speaker 1: you continue to watch the highlights of him, and I've

797
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 1: been watching a lot of him in the offseason, just

798
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: trying to, you know, again, after a football season, get

799
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 1: up to speed on some of the guys that not

800
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 1: get to see enough of last year. In terms of

801
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 1: the minor league stuff. The hands are fast Welsh. The

802
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 1: hands are fast as a strong kid. I mean he

803
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 1: attacks the baseball. You leave a pitch up in the

804
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 1: zone too, he is going to murder it like he

805
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 1: is that guy. And that's one of the things too.

806
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 1: When you watch him, you see a lot of those

807
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,879
Speaker 1: balls when the balls get elevated on him. Sometimes that's

808
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:25,840
Speaker 1: a problem for young players. That's where you'll see a

809
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 1: lot of young players kind of you know, like the

810
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 1: old I like the high ones kind of stuff. You

811
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:31,399
Speaker 1: throw a ball up in the zone of this guy,

812
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: he is going to put it out somewhere in you know,

813
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 1: five hundred feet somewhere, and that, to me is so impressive.

814
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 1: And I think it's because his hands are so fast

815
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 1: and he's got such a good aggressive approach there. But

816
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:43,320
Speaker 1: that's one of those things too. I think when you

817
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 1: look at some of these young players, you know, sometimes

818
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 1: you can beat them up high. You cannot beat this

819
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 1: guy up high with high fast balls, like he's going

820
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 1: to absolutely murder them. Whyatt Langford another player to talk

821
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 1: about NFBC ADP right now currently at one excuse me,

822
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 1: one fifty six. I was gonna say forty six, but

823
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 1: that would be incorrect. So Wyatt Langford another player here

824
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:07,479
Speaker 1: for us to figure out, as it were, a young

825
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 1: player here and for the Texas Rangers, and we're trying

826
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 1: to figure out what he is going to be in

827
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. You look at the ADP, do you

828
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 1: think this is a player you're going to be investing

829
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 1: in at this price?

830
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,399
Speaker 3: If you go and look at my ranks right now,

831
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 3: you will see I have Wyat Langford inside my top

832
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 3: one hundred. So yes, I do. For all intents and purposes,

833
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 3: for people I've talked to, the Rangers are expected and

834
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:35,320
Speaker 3: Their expectation is like he gets this shot, like they're

835
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 3: going into camp that he can be one of their outfielders,

836
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:39,839
Speaker 3: one of their dhs. They're not looking to replace. They're

837
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,879
Speaker 3: going to give him every opportunity and his opportunity last

838
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 3: year he went absolutely insane. He had nine homers in

839
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:50,399
Speaker 3: just under forty games. I think it is, or maybe

840
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 3: it was forty one total minor league games, over double

841
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 3: digit stolen bases. Hard hit numbers were through the roof.

842
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 3: He hit over three hundred at every level. I got

843
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 3: to see him in his pro debut out here. I

844
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:03,760
Speaker 3: saw two different games in complex level. The guy can run,

845
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 3: he can hit, he's patient high OBP players. He's an

846
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 3: advanced college bat that they are going to move. It's

847
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 3: a little weird that the team might jump in with

848
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 3: like two rookies Evan Carter and White Langford, but I

849
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 3: think at this point guys like Cherio and Langford are

850
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 3: going to be given the opportunity, if not early. And again,

851
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 3: this is like outside the top one hundred. These are

852
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 3: phenomenal spots. But don't be surprised when Wyatt Langford goes

853
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 3: inside the top one hundred, and don't be surprised when

854
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 3: the announcement happens that the new norm for both of

855
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:32,360
Speaker 3: these players is inside the top one hundred.

856
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:32,839
Speaker 2: Yeah.

857
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 1: You mentioned Evan Carter last time we talked about on

858
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:36,320
Speaker 1: the show. I was trying to find a comp for

859
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 1: him in my brain and I happened to catch on

860
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 1: MLB Network they were running an old you know, baseball seasons,

861
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 1: and they're right in front of me was Wally Joiner.

862
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 1: And if you are as old as me, you remember

863
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 1: Wally Joiner in Wally World with the California Angels then

864
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 1: California Angels and very similar.

865
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 2: Kind of stroke.

866
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,360
Speaker 1: Left handed hitter, you know, had you know, made good contact,

867
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 1: had to pop all these things. And I'm watching and

868
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 1: people forget like he kind of was this huge rookie phenomenon.

869
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 1: Then he got hurt in the playoffs, had a staph

870
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 1: infection his leg. He was never the same player he

871
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 1: Actually they were up three to one in that series.

872
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 1: They ended up losing to the Red Sox. Again, these

873
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,400
Speaker 1: are useless bits of information, but fun. But that's the

874
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 1: guy that he kind of reminds me of. Was watching

875
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,439
Speaker 1: these Wally Joyner highlights. We were talking about the eighty

876
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 1: six Angels and I'm going, ah, that's the Evan Carter,

877
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:23,800
Speaker 1: that's the comp I'm looking for in terms of player.

878
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 1: And you might have to go back and look at

879
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 1: some old things as Wally Joiners see what I'm talking about.

880
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:29,320
Speaker 1: But I think that is kind of the style and

881
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,959
Speaker 1: hopefully you know he is able to have a longer, better,

882
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 1: healthier career than Wally Joyner had. But people forget when

883
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 1: that guy came on the scene. He was like a

884
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 1: revelation and he was a big reason why that veteran

885
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 1: club made it to the playoffs at all.

886
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 3: I'm not saying this will happen, but I will not

887
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:48,880
Speaker 3: be surprised if White Langford just given the opportunity and

888
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:52,359
Speaker 3: runs with it early that by let's just say mid

889
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 3: April to May, he's hitting third for this team. Because

890
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 3: right now, the assumption is Simming is leading off seegers

891
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 3: to Evan Carter would be three. You're probably looking at

892
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 3: Josh Young at four, and then they could throw like

893
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 3: a Jonah him in at five.

894
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 1: That's where Young is valuable if he's gonna hit in

895
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 1: the middle of that order with those guys ahead of him.

896
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 3: Point to this is you go back to back lefties

897
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:14,479
Speaker 3: with Carter. Carter struggled against lefties. If you have Carter

898
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 3: backing up Corey Seeger and you're going two lefties, and

899
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 3: if he struggles and Langford doesn't, then you can go righty, lefty, righty.

900
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:24,880
Speaker 3: Don't be surprised because Langford HIGHOBP player, really good contact,

901
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 3: hard hit numbers could run. I don't think it's out

902
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 3: of the realm of possibility that a different rookie is

903
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 3: hitting three for this team, because it ain't gonna be secret.

904
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 3: And Simon, those two are locked in, so that spot

905
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 3: is open. And if it does. But there's a lot

906
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:39,720
Speaker 3: of speculative stuff here, welly freak browards.

907
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 1: Last guy we're gonna speculate here on today, number ten,

908
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 1: Junior Kamanio NFBC two seventeen. Now, obviously there's gonna be

909
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 1: some openings in the infield in the Tampa Bay situation.

910
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,760
Speaker 1: So Caminaro is just nineteen years old, he'll be twenty

911
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 1: this year. If you go back and look at last

912
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 1: year's stats for him, Look, it's you're you're talking about

913
00:38:57,719 --> 00:38:59,359
Speaker 1: a guy who played as high as double A last year.

914
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 1: You're talking about that showed you twenty home runs there

915
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: at eighty one games at Double A. He hit three

916
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 1: fifty six at single A. Before that at high A

917
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 1: over thirty six games, he hit three fifty six at

918
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,360
Speaker 1: one thousand ops at A nine to twenty one ops

919
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: in those eighty one games at double A. So it

920
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:17,800
Speaker 1: seems like he is ready for at least that audition.

921
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,839
Speaker 1: But it's Tampa, and Tampa's that one thing that.

922
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:23,120
Speaker 2: We always saw, Oh no, what are they gonna do?

923
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 2: How are they gonna act? Now?

924
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 1: Rules have change, so it's easier to do this nowadays,

925
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 1: and there the need is more obvious now. So do

926
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 1: you think that Camonaro gives us enough of a season

927
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 1: to warrant the two to seventeen ADP that he's currently

928
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 1: going at.

929
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 3: Yeah. I actually think Cameron Aro could be one of

930
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 3: the biggest values in drafts right now. And this is

931
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 3: another one of those guys. If they said tomorrow that

932
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 3: Cameron Aro is the starting third baseman top one twenty five,

933
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,359
Speaker 3: without question, maybe inside the top one hundred, I think

934
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 3: was in the realm of possibility as well. He came up,

935
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:57,800
Speaker 3: he was fine in his uh was it seven games

936
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,840
Speaker 3: that he played? He went into the offseason, played in

937
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 3: the Dominican Winter League, I think hit another six homers

938
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 3: in like twenty something games. Absolutely dominated. Here's the deal

939
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 3: with that lineup though currently it says Esac Praides is

940
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 3: their third baseman and they just traded for Jose Cabro,

941
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 3: who's gonna be their shortstop. Well, Praidies has been in

942
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 3: trade rumors the entire offseason and could be shipped out

943
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 3: Dhing right now. Richie Pelosio, So I know you love.

944
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,280
Speaker 3: My point of all this is to say there's open spots.

945
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 3: If he's gonna play third base, Parides if they kept him,

946
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:30,360
Speaker 3: could play DH. You can put him there. Yes, I

947
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 3: think four hundred and fifty plus played appearances is a

948
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 3: good bet. It's post two hundred. He's got thirty plus power.

949
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 3: He's an electric bat. There's no speed that's really in there.

950
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 3: But this is one of those guys you talk about,

951
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:43,799
Speaker 3: Oh good, wait for Josh Young, you can wait for

952
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 3: Kevin Arrow. He's a target in every single draft, and

953
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:49,320
Speaker 3: really the braid the board breaking is going to be

954
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 3: about who the person is in the draft that decides

955
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:54,840
Speaker 3: to pull the trigger on him. Because I think he

956
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:58,319
Speaker 3: can push inside the top one point fifty. And like

957
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 3: I said, if the announcement happens. You want to bet

958
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 3: on a thirty plus home run power rookie hitting near

959
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:07,359
Speaker 3: the middle of the Rays lineup, absolutely, and you will

960
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,239
Speaker 3: bet near the top one hundred if they give him

961
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 3: that spot. But to your point, he didn't play in

962
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:14,920
Speaker 3: the minors past double A, but they did give him

963
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:16,320
Speaker 3: the opportunity in the majors.

964
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 2: But physically he looks like he's ready to. Oh, Like,

965
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 2: the physical.

966
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 1: Build of him, the lower half is very strong. We

967
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 1: always STI look at Evan Carter and I go like,

968
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 1: he's still got some growing to do. He's got some

969
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 1: filling out to so's ely do a Cruz to a

970
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 1: certain extent. But he's such a tall guy. It's a

971
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: very different set of circumstances. So, you know, the tall,

972
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 1: lanky guys sometimes it takes a little while there, But

973
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,280
Speaker 1: when it comes to Cavi and Arrow, it's very different.

974
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 1: Like Cam Arrow looks like a guy who's playing right now.

975
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 1: He looks like a lot like the guy he's probably

976
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 1: going to be replacing at that infield eventually. In terms

977
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 1: of what he means to the Tampa Bay.

978
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 3: RAI, Yeah, and he won't be in he won't be

979
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 3: in it. Short But you know, listen, I've said this

980
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 3: and people know this, but I talked to Carson Williams,

981
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,799
Speaker 3: who's the top shortstop prospect for the Rays. It talked

982
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 3: him in the AFL and one of the first things

983
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 3: out of his mouth was, like, Judi, Camanarroo is the

984
00:41:58,120 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 3: best player I've ever played with. He's the best player

985
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 3: I've ever seen play within person. And he joked, He's like,

986
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,359
Speaker 3: you know, when when someone wants to talk defense, they

987
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 3: come to me. When someone wants to talk offense, we

988
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 3: go to Junior. And those are the two guys you

989
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:14,320
Speaker 3: probably see by the end of this year manning that side.

990
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 3: Cam and Arow's home is at third base. And that's

991
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,720
Speaker 3: why focus on parades. If parades is gone and traded,

992
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,839
Speaker 3: I think they have made full room for it, and

993
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 3: and I have asked some team personnel and the thing

994
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 3: I keep hearing is, yeah, people love the idea of

995
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 3: getting this extra pick when it played, because Junior Camonaro

996
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 3: will be if he breaks camp, he's eligible. If he

997
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 3: were to win Rookie of the Year, he will be

998
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:39,399
Speaker 3: eligible for that extra rookie compensation. It's not even about

999
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,879
Speaker 3: the pick, it's that player pool money. That these team

1000
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:44,360
Speaker 3: want and what are the Rays love? They love to

1001
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 3: save their money and not pay their players. So if

1002
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:49,439
Speaker 3: there's any team that would make sense this day and age,

1003
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 3: it would be for cam and Aro to break camp

1004
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 3: and then to get that extra pool money. He breaks

1005
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 3: boards and he should be on your team.

1006
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 1: What I like about Camanaro when I watch him too,

1007
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:00,239
Speaker 1: and this is why I think he is ready. There's

1008
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 1: times where it does it looks like he doesn't get

1009
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:03,919
Speaker 1: all of it and the ball still goes out.

1010
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 2: That's power, that's strength feel power.

1011
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know, like some you know a lot

1012
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 1: of young players, like you know, when they get it

1013
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:11,800
Speaker 1: and when they don't.

1014
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 2: There's times where he hits the ball and you're like, oh,

1015
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 2: we didn't get all that one. The ball goes.

1016
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 3: Out right like Ryce Lewis was.

1017
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 1: Doing that, or a little bit of that, A little

1018
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 1: bit of that, a little bit of that like feeling too. Yeah,

1019
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 1: And I think that's one of those things when you

1020
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 1: look at young players, you know, in terms of are

1021
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 1: they physically ready to handle themselves at the major league

1022
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: level with some of the pitching they're gonna see and

1023
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 1: the wear and tear of the season, all that stuff. Like,

1024
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 1: I look at that body type, I look at what

1025
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,319
Speaker 1: he's doing in terms of the swing. There's times, like

1026
00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:35,799
Speaker 1: I said, where he gets all of it and you

1027
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 1: know it, and other times where you don't think so

1028
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 1: the ball still goes out and you go wow, like

1029
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 1: he just literally took that one and muscled it out there,

1030
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:44,359
Speaker 1: and that's very impressive for a player at nineteen twenty

1031
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 1: years old. That's a very impressive thing. So what do

1032
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 1: you think about all these players? Drop your comments below

1033
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:51,359
Speaker 1: in the YouTube channel let us know, and of course

1034
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:54,280
Speaker 1: make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Pros MLB channel

1035
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 1: over on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts, the

1036
00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball podcast over at Fantasy Pros. Go check out

1037
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:02,800
Speaker 1: the rankings at fantasybros dot com and of course the

1038
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:05,359
Speaker 1: Draft Wizard open for business very soon.

1039
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 2: Go check it out.

1040
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 1: Keep looking any day now, any hour now, it should

1041
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 1: be there ready for you to start practicing, and you

1042
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 1: could see where these guys are going for yourself that

1043
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 1: I'll do it for us, but the story of the

1044
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 1: game goes on for the Welsh.

1045
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 2: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time.

1046
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 3: Kids,