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Speaker 1: Single best idea. Thank you for your comments here as

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Speaker 1: we get this out. As I've said out on LinkedIn

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Speaker 1: and Twitter, it is a work in progress. Thank you

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Speaker 1: to Apple. The smoothness of getting the podcast up on

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Podcast through Apple has really been a joy

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Speaker 1: as well. It's in additional Women's Day in the hallmark

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Speaker 1: of what we do in economics, finance, investment, and I'm

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Speaker 1: really going to give a major shout out to Sally

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Speaker 1: Crawcheck who really got his jump started on this with

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Speaker 1: Abby Joseph Cohen is Yes, we're really interested in all

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Speaker 1: the talking about it, but we're much much more interested

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Speaker 1: in the doing of it. What Abby Joseph Cohen did

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Speaker 1: at Gouldyn Sachs, what Sally Crawchack did years ago. It's

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Speaker 1: Sanford Bernstein to say they were brave, maybe overplays it,

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Speaker 1: but they just got up, they went to work and

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Speaker 1: they did excellence. Here are two voices who've done excellence.

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Speaker 1: Claudia Som will join us in a bit here off

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Speaker 1: of the jobs report today, and this is a perfect

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Speaker 1: example of what surveillance is about. When you see a

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Speaker 1: very young economist and they get something special, and the

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Speaker 1: case of Ellen Zanner. Folks, her work on the American

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Speaker 1: consumer when she was just out of school was really extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: It's right about when she started diving in rivers in

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Speaker 1: the West like the late great Ken Pruitt and did

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Speaker 1: fly fishing, Ellen Zanner of Morgan Stanley.

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Speaker 2: When I started doing radio in two thousand and three

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Speaker 2: with you, Tom, you and Ken, Ken and I would

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Speaker 2: talk fly fish.

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Speaker 1: You talked about it.

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Speaker 2: He also loved it, and you gave us the stink

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Speaker 2: guy because you did not like that, right, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if folks have noticed, but Tom does

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Speaker 2: not like the attention being taken away from him.

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Speaker 1: So, Ken, Lisa, the size of your leg Are they

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Speaker 1: really that big? Oh?

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Speaker 2: They can be, yeah, they can.

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Speaker 1: Like, what's the biggest fish you've ever caught?

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Speaker 2: Oh, gosh, I've only I've caught up to twenty four inches,

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Speaker 2: but you can get up to thirty two, which would

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Speaker 2: be a really trophy size. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: She's the only market economist. It begs the Kansas City

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Speaker 1: Fed to go to Jackson Hall so she can get

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Speaker 1: out there and fly fish. And of course what's so important.

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Speaker 1: We talked about the Jellystone River up in Montana, where

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Speaker 1: she really thinks that's a place that next to go

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Speaker 1: in America to fly fish. Of course, so much of

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Speaker 1: this was wrapped her on a conversation on the jobs

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Speaker 1: report today. It always is a surprise. Today it was

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Speaker 1: FED moving. We'll get to that with Claudia sam But here,

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Speaker 1: Ellen Zettner, the present tense on the Fed.

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Speaker 2: The Fed has had to raise rates much further and

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Speaker 2: faster than I think anyone had expected. We have survived that,

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Speaker 2: and largely because of the gradual transformation of household balance

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Speaker 2: sheets into a very low fixed rate from years and

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Speaker 2: years and years of near zero interest rates. And so

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Speaker 2: this is just this confluence of factors that means that

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Speaker 2: the cycle can lengthen. And I didn't even mention productivity,

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Speaker 2: which is, you know, all of this is culminated into

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty three that was much stronger growth than expected,

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Speaker 2: a larger deceleration and inflation than expected, and that can

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Speaker 2: continue to a lesser degree.

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Speaker 1: That can continue this year, Ellen Zenner, Morgan Stanley, and

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Speaker 1: now your Friday geek fest. Productivity is without question the

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Speaker 1: hardest thing to get your hands around. A word of

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Speaker 1: always used in it in lectures as efficiency. It's the

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Speaker 1: efficiency of economy. Maybe that captures it. There's academics with

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Speaker 1: the high ground, Heredale Jurgensen up at Harvard, and certainly

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Speaker 1: a gentleman we lost this year, Robert Solo at Massachusetts

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Speaker 1: Institute of Technology. Productivity is a measurement of your use

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Speaker 1: of capital. That's one ratio, and then it's a measurement

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Speaker 1: of your use of labor that's another ratio. And right

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Speaker 1: next to it is this thing that Robert Solo codified.

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Speaker 1: And good morning to Chad Jones out on the West coast.

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Speaker 1: I think he's at Stanford, Barbara Berkeley, he went across

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Speaker 1: the pond, but I don't know which way he went

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Speaker 1: across the bay. I think he's at Stanford this week,

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Speaker 1: and someone like Chad Jones, I'm kidding out at Stanford.

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Speaker 1: There's a third ratio called total factor productivity. I have

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Speaker 1: no idea to this day what it is. Here's what

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Speaker 1: you need to know. The three ratios all have moving parts.

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Speaker 1: So the dynamics of productivity in real time are far

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Speaker 1: more complex. And the way it's spun in the media,

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Speaker 1: and what Ellen Zentner's talking about there in productivity is

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Speaker 1: about the mystery that we have. And here's the key

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Speaker 1: thing to focus on. We won't really know our present

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Speaker 1: efficiency in productivity to five years out, ten years out,

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Speaker 1: twenty years, and this is almost the religion of what

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Speaker 1: we do. We really don't know what technology's doing, and

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Speaker 1: we don't know what capital's doing, the financialization of our system.

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Speaker 1: We really you don't know about labor. Maybe that's a

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Speaker 1: little more simplistic than the others, but this is a

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Speaker 1: major thrust of the show throughout all this year, understanding

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Speaker 1: we're not going to know where we are till five

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Speaker 1: years or ten years out. We knew where we were

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Speaker 1: at eight thirty. It was a jobs report. It came

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Speaker 1: in with a big, big number, with a big, big recision,

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Speaker 1: and Claudia Sam, she was sitting there with her cat

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Speaker 1: down in Washington, and I was going on blah blah blah,

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Speaker 1: and doctor Sam puts up a sign, remain calm here,

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Speaker 1: Claudia Sam on today's jobs report.

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Speaker 3: The FED is going to look at one month and

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Speaker 3: just kind of take it in context of what we've

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Speaker 3: seen recently. Yeah, this month, you know, these are not

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Speaker 3: great numbers. It's a disappointment. I certainly looked at that

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Speaker 3: unemployment rate, and yet we have seen solid gains. This

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Speaker 3: does not change the story. And honestly, at the FED

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Speaker 3: and a lot of places, all eyes are still on

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Speaker 3: the CPI and the inflation prints. We still have an

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Speaker 3: economy that's really moving labor markets that's still working well,

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Speaker 3: although not in the way that we've seen last year

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Speaker 3: where it was still just going really strong.

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Speaker 1: Tiffany Wild and Pimco really underscored what we heard from

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Speaker 1: doctor sm in real time at eight thirty one. One

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Speaker 1: of the toughest thing to do is to provide wisdom

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Speaker 1: right when the report comes out, because, as you can imagine,

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Speaker 1: it's way more complex, way more voluminous than just two

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Speaker 1: or three media headline numbers, single best idea. We're working

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Speaker 1: towards this. We're gonna do it all next week as

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Speaker 1: well out on Apple Podcasts on Economics, Finance, investment. The

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Speaker 1: goal here is to give you little vignettes. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we could have had six, seven, eight people. I could

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Speaker 1: have done Paul Sweeneyboup today on UNC Duke Basketball. That

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Speaker 1: would have been a single best idea. There are a

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Speaker 1: lot of people we could have talked to, but we

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Speaker 1: chose Ellen Zettner and Claudia Sam will make it up

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Speaker 1: again on Monday,