1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,560
Speaker 1: What two three breaks and.

2
00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:13,680
Speaker 2: In the middle of the family. Hello, stickball in the

3
00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:15,400
Speaker 2: one yard line?

4
00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:17,360
Speaker 3: How about that?

5
00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:26,960
Speaker 1: That is the ultimate kabash and we are underway. Hello everyone,

6
00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:29,680
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Action Network NFL Podcast. It is

7
00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,199
Speaker 1: the week thirteen Friday Show. I am Matthew Friedman, the

8
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:35,480
Speaker 1: editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, joining me to break

9
00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:37,120
Speaker 1: down all of the games coming up this week. And

10
00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:39,440
Speaker 1: is Chris Raybon, a senior editor and analyst of the

11
00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:41,599
Speaker 1: Action Network and a co host of All Take That

12
00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,599
Speaker 1: Bet on ESPN Plus. You can follow him in the

13
00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:48,640
Speaker 1: Action Network app at Chris Raybon. Chris, last week you

14
00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:51,320
Speaker 1: were on the Wednesday show. We had an abbreviated schedule

15
00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,320
Speaker 1: because of Thanksgiving. This week your Monday co host in

16
00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,160
Speaker 1: Harditz joined Peter Jennings and Shawn Corner and me on

17
00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,720
Speaker 1: the Wednesday show. Everyone should check that out on the

18
00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,680
Speaker 1: Act Network NFL podcast. Please rate and review the show.

19
00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:07,000
Speaker 1: Subscribe unsubscribed, subscribe Chris. Let's jump into it. No bye

20
00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,679
Speaker 1: weeks this week, so we have a full slate, the

21
00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:11,280
Speaker 1: first time in a couple of months we've had the

22
00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:15,200
Speaker 1: full thirteen game main slate, and then obviously Sunday Night

23
00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:18,080
Speaker 1: Football so a lot of ground to cover. Let's just

24
00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,959
Speaker 1: jump into it. We have our opening first and five segment.

25
00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:23,520
Speaker 1: We're going to break down the five games that right

26
00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,040
Speaker 1: now are getting the most action and then Action Network

27
00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:28,640
Speaker 1: app the games that have the highest take accounts, and

28
00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:32,520
Speaker 1: the first one, Oh Man, the Chiefs at the Raiders.

29
00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,000
Speaker 1: Chiefs favored by fourteen and a half a fifty five

30
00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:37,840
Speaker 1: point five over under. Kansas City is coming off the

31
00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:39,880
Speaker 1: buy right now. They are the number one seed in

32
00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:42,640
Speaker 1: the AFC and the Raiders are just one of the

33
00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:45,440
Speaker 1: stone worst teams in the league. What are your thoughts

34
00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:45,959
Speaker 1: on this game?

35
00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:48,280
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a mismatch.

36
00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:52,120
Speaker 4: You know, Andy Reid coming off of buye always a

37
00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:55,120
Speaker 4: well prepared coach going against a team that obviously has

38
00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:57,680
Speaker 4: nothing to play for. I mean, they're running out guys

39
00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:01,280
Speaker 4: who I would bet the average with. Couldn't name more

40
00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,760
Speaker 4: than like four of the Raiders skill position players right now.

41
00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,560
Speaker 4: I mean, they have all sorts of things going on.

42
00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:08,959
Speaker 4: It's getting ugly out there. But at the end of

43
00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,440
Speaker 4: the day, you know, as betters, we're not supposed to

44
00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:13,680
Speaker 4: bet teams are supposed to bet numbers, really right, and

45
00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:16,480
Speaker 4: this number is too high for me. It's fourteen and

46
00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,720
Speaker 4: a half spread for the in favor of the Chiefs.

47
00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:22,320
Speaker 4: I think there's value on the Raiders there. I think

48
00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:24,119
Speaker 4: you bet the Raiders if you bet this game at all.

49
00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,120
Speaker 4: If you look at home underdogs of seven or more

50
00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:30,240
Speaker 4: points late in the season, that's like just December January

51
00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,640
Speaker 4: sixty three and forty four with four pushes against the spread,

52
00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,560
Speaker 4: that's fifty eight point nine percent since three. And if

53
00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,040
Speaker 4: you're betting against teams with a like a eighty percent

54
00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:40,919
Speaker 4: win percentage of more so like really good teams that

55
00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:43,600
Speaker 4: the public likes one twenty three, ninety five and two

56
00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:45,800
Speaker 4: against the spread in these spots. So this is just

57
00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:48,480
Speaker 4: a classic case of where you have to kind of

58
00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:52,519
Speaker 4: fad your biases. I think about the two teams at play,

59
00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,080
Speaker 4: because you know, more than anyone, I love Patrick Mahomes

60
00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:58,160
Speaker 4: and I love the Chiefs, but and I dislike the Raiders.

61
00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:00,480
Speaker 4: But I think in this spot you have to go

62
00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:01,960
Speaker 4: with the value and take Copland.

63
00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:04,919
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, here's the thing, Like, I know you're

64
00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,679
Speaker 1: right from the bookmaker perspective and the handicapping perspective, Like,

65
00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:11,360
Speaker 1: I know you're right. This line it feels high, but

66
00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,240
Speaker 1: like isn't it like it's high for a reason. Like

67
00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:18,080
Speaker 1: the Raiders, they just they're horrible, Like they're in total

68
00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:22,119
Speaker 1: tank mode. They are thirtieth in terms of DVA, thirtieth

69
00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,840
Speaker 1: against the run and the pass. They have the worst

70
00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:30,440
Speaker 1: combination or one of the worst combinations of like defensive

71
00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:35,440
Speaker 1: leanings that any team has in the league. And from

72
00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:38,880
Speaker 1: from the perspective of just looking at there against the

73
00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,800
Speaker 1: spread performance this year, they are the worst team in

74
00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:44,200
Speaker 1: the league. Not only do they have the worst record,

75
00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,000
Speaker 1: like three to eight, but they have the worst margin

76
00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:49,920
Speaker 1: on a week to week basis, Like on average, they

77
00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:53,680
Speaker 1: are underperforming the spread by eight point one eight points.

78
00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:56,160
Speaker 1: That's the worst in the league. If I had to

79
00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,560
Speaker 1: choose a side, I guess I would just stay away.

80
00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,800
Speaker 1: There's no way you could can to bet on the Raiders,

81
00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,240
Speaker 1: even though I know that's like the sharp side on this.

82
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:05,560
Speaker 2: All right, the two things. Two things.

83
00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,800
Speaker 4: Number one, I know you spend some time actually tracking

84
00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:14,080
Speaker 4: the performance, you know, implied versus actual. Do you know

85
00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:18,640
Speaker 4: if there's any type of like adjustment being made as

86
00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:21,320
Speaker 4: the season progresses, like AKA, Like all right, let's say

87
00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:23,880
Speaker 4: a team you know, for the first eight weeks underperforms,

88
00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:26,280
Speaker 4: they're implied total by x amount of points.

89
00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:28,640
Speaker 2: Is that something that tends to carry over.

90
00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,680
Speaker 4: I'm just wondering because you kind of maybe think about like, Okay,

91
00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:33,400
Speaker 4: you know, the Raiders have been the worst team against

92
00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:36,320
Speaker 4: the spread. They're not covering by the highest margin. So

93
00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,800
Speaker 4: I'm guessing I would just guess that book makers are

94
00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,800
Speaker 4: actually building that into the future lines, which is why

95
00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:43,840
Speaker 4: this spread is so high in the first place, when

96
00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:45,679
Speaker 4: it maybe it should just be you know, the flat

97
00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:47,160
Speaker 4: out fourteen or something like that.

98
00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:50,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, so that's a good question. What I should say

99
00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,080
Speaker 1: is that my answer is going to be very anecdotal.

100
00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:55,680
Speaker 1: It kind of it points in different directions because I

101
00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:59,440
Speaker 1: have the data kind of that I've accumulated on this

102
00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,080
Speaker 1: for a few seasons, and then obviously in the bet

103
00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,680
Speaker 1: Labs database we have much more data, but kind of

104
00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,400
Speaker 1: like the granular data of looking at things week to week.

105
00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:12,440
Speaker 1: I think bookmakers are actually pretty slow to adjust some

106
00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:16,200
Speaker 1: of their lines. And then I think in certain situations

107
00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:19,320
Speaker 1: it's almost like they flip a switch and it's very

108
00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:23,000
Speaker 1: predicated based on what happened the week before. So I

109
00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,280
Speaker 1: think it's it's actually bifurcated. It's either based on like

110
00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,240
Speaker 1: what happened the week before, where they can they know

111
00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,560
Speaker 1: that they can shade in one direction, or and I

112
00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:34,599
Speaker 1: should just before I go to the or I should

113
00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:37,640
Speaker 1: just say, like whatever Scooch says on the favorite podcast,

114
00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,120
Speaker 1: obviously just listen to him about what it is bookmakers do.

115
00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,640
Speaker 1: But like so, either they can shade based on what

116
00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:45,440
Speaker 1: happens the week before, or you do have a situation

117
00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:48,799
Speaker 1: where you have a team that is just so gnarly

118
00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,320
Speaker 1: for so long. And you could see situations like that

119
00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:55,400
Speaker 1: with the Browns in previous seasons, like a team that

120
00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,520
Speaker 1: is just so bad for such a huge chunk of

121
00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,120
Speaker 1: the season that in this second half of the year

122
00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:04,320
Speaker 1: they do start to shade the lines more heavily because

123
00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:06,640
Speaker 1: they know that people are either going to be betting

124
00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:09,279
Speaker 1: against them. Or you maybe have a situation on the

125
00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,880
Speaker 1: opposite end, like the Saints this year or like the

126
00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:16,680
Speaker 1: Rams last year, where teams are just overperforming, really crushing

127
00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:20,599
Speaker 1: expectations so they can skew more. And so I would say,

128
00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,960
Speaker 1: you have like that situation here in this game where

129
00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:27,200
Speaker 1: you have Kansas City on one side just crushing and

130
00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,360
Speaker 1: you have the Raiders on the other side just absolutely

131
00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:32,880
Speaker 1: like the worst team in the league. So yeah, like

132
00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:35,400
Speaker 1: I would say, like this line looks high, but you

133
00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,239
Speaker 1: still could not convince me to bet on the Raiders

134
00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:39,919
Speaker 1: because like if I lost, it would be like, you

135
00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,599
Speaker 1: know what, like I bet on the Raiders like an idiot.

136
00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:44,359
Speaker 1: No one should ever bet on the Raiders.

137
00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:48,720
Speaker 2: Those are those I believe. On this very podcast we

138
00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,640
Speaker 2: were in like opposite seats and those are my famous

139
00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:55,400
Speaker 2: last words before betting on the Vikings to cover against

140
00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:57,760
Speaker 2: the Buffalo Boos way back in Week three. I learned

141
00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:01,200
Speaker 2: my lesson. I'm sticking with Oh Glynn here, thank you

142
00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:01,960
Speaker 2: Action Network.

143
00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, no way, I can do Raiders. What I can do.

144
00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:08,120
Speaker 1: What I can do for my pick is obviously take

145
00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:11,120
Speaker 1: the total with Kansas City thirty five and a half.

146
00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:14,960
Speaker 1: They've hit their imply total eight times out of eleven games.

147
00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:17,960
Speaker 1: They have the highest margin at eight point two three

148
00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,960
Speaker 1: points on average. And then you have on the other

149
00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:23,680
Speaker 1: side of that the Raiders one of the worst teams

150
00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:26,559
Speaker 1: in the league at allowing teams to hit their imply total.

151
00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:28,560
Speaker 1: So it's comfortable with that to.

152
00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:29,480
Speaker 2: Play a double's advocate.

153
00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:32,360
Speaker 4: Real quick, you think the Raiders are absolutely the stone

154
00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:34,840
Speaker 4: cold worst team in the league, or do you consider

155
00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:37,920
Speaker 4: the Arizona Cardinals in that category as well.

156
00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:39,960
Speaker 1: That's a good question. I think I think they suck

157
00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:43,080
Speaker 1: about equally. I'm not I'm not going to try to split.

158
00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,120
Speaker 4: That because you know, but I'm just saying, you know,

159
00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:49,160
Speaker 4: the Oaken Raiders did beat the Arizona Cardinals, who did

160
00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,320
Speaker 4: cover against the Kansas City Chiefs.

161
00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:55,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's I think. I think the Raiders

162
00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,520
Speaker 1: and the Cardinals, who are are pretty much tied for

163
00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:03,240
Speaker 1: the worst team. It's gonna okay, let's move.

164
00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:05,000
Speaker 2: They're not going to score, are they. They're not going

165
00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:05,680
Speaker 2: to score a point.

166
00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:10,360
Speaker 1: The Colts at the Jags. Colts favored by four, a

167
00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,720
Speaker 1: forty seven point over under. The Colts have won five

168
00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:14,720
Speaker 1: games in a row and the Jags are just going

169
00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:17,280
Speaker 1: in the opposite direction. They've lost seven in a row,

170
00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:21,000
Speaker 1: They've fired their offensive coordinator, and they've demoted franchise quarterback

171
00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:24,320
Speaker 1: Blake Portals to the second string. I mean, really, what

172
00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:25,480
Speaker 1: do you have to say about this game?

173
00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:27,920
Speaker 4: I mean, you know what's crazy is like, you know,

174
00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:29,480
Speaker 4: I was one of those people. I didn't I didn't

175
00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:31,680
Speaker 4: hate Lake Borders as much as like the average person.

176
00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,160
Speaker 4: I was like, Okay, you know, Jacksonville kind of built

177
00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:38,560
Speaker 4: this roster that like de emphasized the quarterback at like

178
00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,560
Speaker 4: the perfect time, which was twenty seventeen, and that time

179
00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:44,360
Speaker 4: has passed very quickly, now passing numbers a out of

180
00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:45,680
Speaker 4: all time high.

181
00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:47,800
Speaker 2: The best teams have good quarterbacks, But in.

182
00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:50,959
Speaker 4: Terms of this game, no contrarian, no katrarian strategy here

183
00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:54,160
Speaker 4: for me, Like the Colts at this number, I think

184
00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:56,000
Speaker 4: the number should be even higher.

185
00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:57,720
Speaker 2: But of course, you know they're on the road.

186
00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,520
Speaker 4: Andrew Luck sometimes turns the ball over along with his

187
00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,200
Speaker 4: you know, three touchdown passes that we can come to

188
00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:06,280
Speaker 4: expect from him every game. But I really worry here

189
00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:11,040
Speaker 4: in this one about the Jaguars red zone offense because

190
00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:14,400
Speaker 4: they ranked twenty fourth in red zone offense coming into

191
00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,600
Speaker 4: this game, and that was after a three game stretch

192
00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:21,000
Speaker 4: these last three weeks with Leonard Fournette back when he's

193
00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:25,120
Speaker 4: by himself single handedly scored five touchdowns for them in

194
00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:25,960
Speaker 4: the red zone.

195
00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,760
Speaker 2: So Leonard Fournette goes five of five or five.

196
00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:30,720
Speaker 4: Of whatever he goes, and yet they're still ranked twenty

197
00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:33,880
Speaker 4: fourth in the red zone and they're facing a coach

198
00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:37,320
Speaker 4: team that is top ten in red zone defense. So

199
00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:41,800
Speaker 4: it's like, how does this team score points because those

200
00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:46,120
Speaker 4: five touchdowns from Fournette accounted for more than a quarter

201
00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,480
Speaker 4: of their season total. On offense of touchdowns period, they

202
00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:52,000
Speaker 4: only have nineteen offensive touchdowns this year. Five were scored

203
00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,120
Speaker 4: in the last three games by Fournette. And then on like,

204
00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:57,280
Speaker 4: you have Cody Kessler, who you know, weak arm guy.

205
00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:00,840
Speaker 4: You have your most probably your most explosive player or

206
00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:02,600
Speaker 4: one of your top two guys.

207
00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:06,240
Speaker 2: Keewan Cole, not even a full time player anymore.

208
00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:09,720
Speaker 4: You got Carlos Hyde who long run of eleven yards

209
00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,280
Speaker 4: since he came to the team, long run of twenty

210
00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:15,240
Speaker 4: two for the season on well over one hundred carries

211
00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,000
Speaker 4: between the Jags and the Browns. So it's like, if

212
00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,080
Speaker 4: they can't score in their breadzone and they can't generate

213
00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:23,160
Speaker 4: explosive plays, or they don't have the personnel in this

214
00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,320
Speaker 4: game to really generate explosive plays, I just I don't

215
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:27,560
Speaker 4: see how the Jags are scoring.

216
00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:30,120
Speaker 2: So you know, I think the coach just win this game.

217
00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:31,720
Speaker 4: I don't know where the total falls, if the Coats

218
00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:33,800
Speaker 4: put up a ton of points or not. I don't

219
00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:35,960
Speaker 4: feel a confident about that, but I feel good about

220
00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,120
Speaker 4: the Coats with a pretty good margin of victory here.

221
00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:40,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. And one thing that I think also

222
00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:45,319
Speaker 1: factors into this Jalen Ramsey on Wednesday, he didn't practice

223
00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:48,000
Speaker 1: at all. Still waiting to see what happened on Thursday,

224
00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:50,640
Speaker 1: but I don't believe he practiced on Thursday either.

225
00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:52,400
Speaker 2: Did you see that Ringer article.

226
00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,839
Speaker 4: I think it was where they went through every every

227
00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,839
Speaker 4: thing he said about quarterbacks who he's actually faced this year,

228
00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:01,679
Speaker 4: and it was like he's like one in ten in

229
00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:05,560
Speaker 4: terms of like essentially eating Crow. But every quarterback he dissed,

230
00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:07,679
Speaker 4: the team either lost to or he got he had

231
00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:09,360
Speaker 4: a bad game or game with a touchdown or something

232
00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:09,600
Speaker 4: like that.

233
00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:11,760
Speaker 1: So good. Yeah, I'm I mean, I'm right there with you.

234
00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:15,280
Speaker 1: Everything you said, I agree with. I'm picking D minus

235
00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:17,720
Speaker 1: for the one thing that I think potentially could be

236
00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:21,480
Speaker 1: good coming from the quarterback swhich Kessler does have a

237
00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,719
Speaker 1: weak arm, but I think he's much more accurate, so

238
00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,880
Speaker 1: you know, they could result in, you know, just if anything,

239
00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,920
Speaker 1: like maybe more receptions for some of the receivers. The

240
00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,600
Speaker 1: receivers I think, you know, their salaries have dropped down

241
00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:36,800
Speaker 1: throughout the course of the season. Dede Westbrook is someone

242
00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,840
Speaker 1: who I mean, you can't play him in DFS. Yeah,

243
00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:42,600
Speaker 1: but he's someone who's like he's intriguing to me, like

244
00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:45,760
Speaker 1: like long term, Like I think he's a really intriguing player,

245
00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:47,880
Speaker 1: and I would like to see him have a shot

246
00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,719
Speaker 1: with a good quarterback. So, you know, I don't know

247
00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:53,600
Speaker 1: if Kessler's that guy, but like I feel confident that

248
00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,199
Speaker 1: Blake Portles isn't, so we might as well see what

249
00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,440
Speaker 1: someone else can do, and you know, maybe at some

250
00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:00,880
Speaker 1: point things can work out for some of the receivers there.

251
00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:03,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, you and I are both on the same page

252
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:03,800
Speaker 2: with Westbrook.

253
00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,120
Speaker 4: But you know, it's I'm I'm just glad the Jaguars

254
00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:09,000
Speaker 4: haven't had any one game showdown slate, so I don't

255
00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:11,920
Speaker 4: have to spend like you said, like like hours just

256
00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,199
Speaker 4: like diving in because like, oh my god, this is the.

257
00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:17,199
Speaker 2: Saints game, that that this past Sights Cowboys game. I mean,

258
00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:20,160
Speaker 2: they have literally fifteen different guys that could catch a

259
00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:20,920
Speaker 2: touchdown in a game.

260
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:23,840
Speaker 1: It's it's just it's just the worst. Yeah, when Zach

261
00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:27,079
Speaker 1: Lion scores two, everyone is going to be So I

262
00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:27,640
Speaker 1: wrote him up.

263
00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:28,240
Speaker 2: I wrote him up.

264
00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,640
Speaker 4: He's mentioned he's in there, You've got Yeah.

265
00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, next game, the Rams at the Lions. I mean,

266
00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:37,640
Speaker 1: we have a lot this is it's a really intriguing slate,

267
00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:41,320
Speaker 1: a lot of road favorites in this slate. Rams favored

268
00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:44,200
Speaker 1: by ten, a fifty five point over under. The Rams

269
00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,760
Speaker 1: are coming off the by the Lions have lost fourth

270
00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,800
Speaker 1: or last five games. Man, what are you doing with

271
00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:50,319
Speaker 1: this game?

272
00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:52,320
Speaker 4: I mean, I feel like this is just a carbon

273
00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:56,280
Speaker 4: copy of the Raiders and and Chi's game and even

274
00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:57,959
Speaker 4: down to like you know, I think it was two

275
00:12:58,040 --> 00:12:59,920
Speaker 4: years ago, like a lot of people know me only

276
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,520
Speaker 4: as that guy that was like all in on Todd

277
00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,160
Speaker 4: Gurley after he had like two yards to carry or

278
00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:07,160
Speaker 4: something like that. So like this is like the carbon

279
00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,920
Speaker 4: copy of these teams from every aspect of it for me.

280
00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:10,800
Speaker 2: And again, you know.

281
00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,319
Speaker 4: Love the Rams, love Sean McVay, and you know, I

282
00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:15,320
Speaker 4: think on this pod, I've bet against the Lions a

283
00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:20,079
Speaker 4: few times since Golden Tate. Just a completely different offense,

284
00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:22,160
Speaker 4: just like the whole complexion of the offense change. And

285
00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,640
Speaker 4: this is with Galladay generally balling out out like you know,

286
00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:29,560
Speaker 4: like Galladay is the real deal andones right, and that

287
00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:33,160
Speaker 4: that really hurts because you need that another deep threat

288
00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,680
Speaker 4: to now open things up for Galladay and to give

289
00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,640
Speaker 4: Stafford at least some semblance of space because Golden Tate

290
00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:41,640
Speaker 4: just kind of created that space for himself and then

291
00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:44,319
Speaker 4: hate plus Marvin Jones, it just it just stretched the

292
00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:48,160
Speaker 4: defense so much more. You know, Stafford don't like that

293
00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,240
Speaker 4: he's just had to kind of hold the ball waiting

294
00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:53,160
Speaker 4: for guys to get open a lot longer, or kind

295
00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,880
Speaker 4: of resort to this overlydnk and dunk style where it's

296
00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:56,800
Speaker 4: not really efficient at all.

297
00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,199
Speaker 2: It's just like an Eli Manning thing. So don't like it.

298
00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,440
Speaker 4: But we have I have seen Detroit kind of stick

299
00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:03,720
Speaker 4: close with a couple of teams. I believe it was

300
00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:07,040
Speaker 4: the Seattle Seahawks who they stuck close with recently. Yeah,

301
00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,120
Speaker 4: so we've seen we've seen Detroit kind of hanging there,

302
00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,240
Speaker 4: you know, Matt Patricia having a rough first go at.

303
00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:15,199
Speaker 4: It kind of figured that would happen with some of

304
00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:16,240
Speaker 4: the talent he had on.

305
00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:17,839
Speaker 2: That defensive side of the ball.

306
00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,480
Speaker 4: I don't think it was a complete team yet, but again,

307
00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:22,440
Speaker 4: this is another spot where you know, I got this

308
00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:24,640
Speaker 4: line at ten point five, so I think that was

309
00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:26,960
Speaker 4: obviously you know, a little a little better because you

310
00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:28,880
Speaker 4: can actually win the bed if they win by ten.

311
00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:31,160
Speaker 4: But I think he's still I think ten is still

312
00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,280
Speaker 4: the play. I think if it goes under ten, I

313
00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,000
Speaker 4: wouldn't feels comfortable taking Detroit. But I think at ten,

314
00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:38,720
Speaker 4: I'm still going with these home dogs. You know, the

315
00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,040
Speaker 4: home dogs of seven or more points late in the

316
00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,840
Speaker 4: season are sixty three, forty four and four against the spread.

317
00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:47,800
Speaker 4: And then when you the same same trends from before,

318
00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,320
Speaker 4: when you have these teams with an eight percent or

319
00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:53,600
Speaker 4: more winning percentage December on, you know, betting against them

320
00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:56,120
Speaker 4: one twenty three, ninety five and two since two thousand

321
00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:56,480
Speaker 4: and three.

322
00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:58,920
Speaker 2: So again, trends on your side.

323
00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:03,320
Speaker 4: Market love these loves, these darlins, like the Saints, the Rams,

324
00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:03,920
Speaker 4: the Chiefs.

325
00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:07,720
Speaker 2: This is the time when you embrace the contrarian strategy

326
00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,720
Speaker 2: to the fullest and you take your chances with these underdogs.

327
00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:12,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the same version of the conversation we

328
00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:15,680
Speaker 1: had earlier. I can't, like, I can't bet on Detroit,

329
00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:17,520
Speaker 1: you know, like I know this is the sharp side,

330
00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,120
Speaker 1: but I just I can't bet on that team. But

331
00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,720
Speaker 1: I also don't want to bet on the Rams to cover.

332
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,360
Speaker 1: Like for two things. One, they haven't been good in

333
00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,800
Speaker 1: terms of market expectations, like against the spread this year,

334
00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,560
Speaker 1: they've been a very mediocre team. They're four or five

335
00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:34,680
Speaker 1: and two, you know, Like I don't I don't want

336
00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,120
Speaker 1: to back them right now, but I do feel pretty

337
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,720
Speaker 1: confident in their ability to score points. So obviously I'm

338
00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:42,680
Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna take the over on their team total

339
00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:44,600
Speaker 1: thirty two and a half. The thing is that even

340
00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:49,640
Speaker 1: with Damon Harrison now manning the middle of that defensive line,

341
00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:54,120
Speaker 1: they've gotten better at stopping opposing running attacks, but that

342
00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:58,600
Speaker 1: hasn't really translated into stopping opponents from scoring points, right, Yeah,

343
00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:01,560
Speaker 1: opposing teams are still scoring points on them because their

344
00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:06,400
Speaker 1: past defense. Right, So I think, you know, I think

345
00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:08,640
Speaker 1: regardless of whether it's like, oh, you know, they're going

346
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:10,760
Speaker 1: to be able to stop Todd Gurley like one. I

347
00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:12,440
Speaker 1: don't know if they will too. I don't know if

348
00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:14,960
Speaker 1: that even matters, I think the Rams will still be

349
00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,320
Speaker 1: able to score points. Like since McVeigh joined the Rams,

350
00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,200
Speaker 1: so since last season, they've been better than any other

351
00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,080
Speaker 1: team in the league at hitting their imply points total.

352
00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,520
Speaker 1: So I trust them to be able to do that.

353
00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:29,400
Speaker 1: They do that, I believe over seventy five percent of

354
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,760
Speaker 1: the time. So that's for me, that's the easy bet

355
00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:35,960
Speaker 1: to make, especially because I don't trust that Detroit defense.

356
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,600
Speaker 2: How like how much weight do you put on?

357
00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:40,760
Speaker 4: Like I don't have the numbers in front of me,

358
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:44,040
Speaker 4: but from what I remember, Detroy's playing in some really

359
00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,520
Speaker 4: low scoring games where they're just kind of mucking the

360
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,040
Speaker 4: whole game up. How much do you think that factors

361
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,000
Speaker 4: into this game with the Rams. Do you think the

362
00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:52,280
Speaker 4: Rams are going to be able to just kind of

363
00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:53,640
Speaker 4: go run up and down the field and it's going

364
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:54,920
Speaker 4: to be more of a fast paced game, or do

365
00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:56,320
Speaker 4: you think Detroit is going to be able to kind

366
00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:58,480
Speaker 4: of slow it down? Because I could totally see like

367
00:16:58,520 --> 00:16:59,720
Speaker 4: a twenty eight to ten.

368
00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that could happen. If it's twenty eight

369
00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:05,520
Speaker 1: to ten, I still kind of like have faith that,

370
00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,840
Speaker 1: like the Rams can still get like one more touchdown

371
00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,439
Speaker 1: out of that. Like, so even if Detroit slows it

372
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:13,280
Speaker 1: down a little bit, even if the Rams get one

373
00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:17,520
Speaker 1: less possession than they might in a faster paced game,

374
00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 1: I still would rather if I had to pick a

375
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 1: bet on this game, I would still go with them

376
00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:27,439
Speaker 1: scoring points as opposed to like Detroit scoring enough to

377
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:31,000
Speaker 1: cover or the Rams scoring enough to cover, and then

378
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:32,520
Speaker 1: I just kind of don't even want to take a

379
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,200
Speaker 1: side on the like the game total, because I could

380
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,560
Speaker 1: see like Detroit really screwing that up either way, you

381
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,679
Speaker 1: know what I mean. Like, so I just I kind

382
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 1: of want to try to stay as far away from

383
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,680
Speaker 1: Detroit in the equation of thinking about this as possible.

384
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:49,040
Speaker 2: It's crazy how quickly I feel like the the narrative

385
00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:50,959
Speaker 2: or the opinion, whatever you want to call it, kind

386
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,840
Speaker 2: of changed on on Matthew Stafford because I feel like,

387
00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:56,359
Speaker 2: you know, coming he was always thought of it. This

388
00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:59,440
Speaker 2: kind of like, Okay, he's never really had the defense,

389
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 2: but he's a lot of talent. He's kind of this

390
00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:02,800
Speaker 2: really good quarterback. We just need to get him on

391
00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:05,120
Speaker 2: a good team with a good coaching staff and he'll

392
00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:06,919
Speaker 2: be a good quarterback. And it's like, now everyone kind

393
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 2: of looks at Matthew staff Or like a guys.

394
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,000
Speaker 1: The Golden State absence is noticeable.

395
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:15,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, Next.

396
00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,639
Speaker 1: Game Ravens and Falcons. Falcons favored by one and a

397
00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,280
Speaker 1: half a forty eight point over under. The Ravens have

398
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,120
Speaker 1: won two straight games and Lamar Jackson starts. The Falcons

399
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,760
Speaker 1: have lost three in a row and actually this game

400
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,959
Speaker 1: opened amazingly. The Falcons is two and a half point dogs,

401
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,720
Speaker 1: and that very quickly got bet to the other side. Chris,

402
00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:34,200
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on this game?

403
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,400
Speaker 4: Well, I think the first thing anytime you talk about

404
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:42,120
Speaker 4: the Atlanta Falcons and betting on the Atlanta Falcons, they've

405
00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,880
Speaker 4: become a team, at least this season, that you have to.

406
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:46,840
Speaker 2: Start considering where the game is being played.

407
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:50,320
Speaker 4: Because now we're eleven games into the season for the

408
00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:54,440
Speaker 4: Falcons and it's pretty clear that for whatever reason, they're

409
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:56,200
Speaker 4: just not as focused. I don't know if it's focused.

410
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:57,639
Speaker 4: I don't know if it's preparation, I don't know what

411
00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:59,560
Speaker 4: it is. But when they go on the road, they

412
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:01,399
Speaker 4: just don't play well. But they're back at home for

413
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,399
Speaker 4: this game. They're in the Dome and they averaged thirty

414
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,199
Speaker 4: points per game at home twenty points per game on

415
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:08,719
Speaker 4: the road. And I mean, you saw that play out

416
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 4: on Thanksgiving where it's.

417
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:13,639
Speaker 2: Just like mistake after mistake, literally right in front of

418
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:14,240
Speaker 2: the goal line.

419
00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:19,280
Speaker 1: I know, at the goal line. It's horrible.

420
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,000
Speaker 4: I mean it was like, I don't know if that

421
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,879
Speaker 4: Thanksgiving game like made anyone happy by the end of it,

422
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,119
Speaker 4: because I mean, if you had like Drew Brees, You're like,

423
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:29,119
Speaker 4: I mean, he has great, he has four touchdowns, but

424
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:30,639
Speaker 4: they all went to nobody's and he only has like

425
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:33,119
Speaker 4: one hundred and seventy yards. And then if you're if

426
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:35,920
Speaker 4: you had the Falcons or Matt Ryan, You're like, Okay, well,

427
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:37,720
Speaker 4: grad he threw for some yards, but like he should

428
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:39,840
Speaker 4: have had like two or three more touchdowns.

429
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 2: So it was just it was an ugly game. But

430
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,400
Speaker 2: in this one, I do like the Falcons.

431
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,159
Speaker 4: Here, you know another line that I got at a

432
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:49,720
Speaker 4: much better price. I actually got this, I think once

433
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 4: at plus one and another time at to pick them

434
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,439
Speaker 4: for Atlanta, So now you know a little bit of

435
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 4: the value has been met out of it.

436
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,359
Speaker 2: But you know, I still think they are the better team.

437
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,920
Speaker 4: I think with the home field advantage, I still feel

438
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,360
Speaker 4: comfortable going to you know, at this one point five

439
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,200
Speaker 4: number probably wouldn't go much higher than two.

440
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 2: But I think the key is just Atlanta can score

441
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 2: points at home.

442
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:11,119
Speaker 4: They play a lot better thirty point per game team

443
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,959
Speaker 4: at home. I'm just not convinced that this Lamar Jackson

444
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 4: offense as good as it as successful as it has been.

445
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 4: I guess I'll say, if they get in a hole

446
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 4: early in the game, if if Atlanta is up fourteen

447
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,400
Speaker 4: to nothing or twenty one to seven or something like that,

448
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:29,040
Speaker 4: which is very possible. I'm not convinced that they can

449
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 4: kind of throw their way back in the game. And

450
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,119
Speaker 4: I'm not convinced that, you know, it's going to be

451
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 4: quite as effective for them to just run the ball

452
00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,320
Speaker 4: at that point in the game, because then you know,

453
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 4: it's a lot easier to defend.

454
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:42,679
Speaker 2: That's what worries me about this offense. What do you

455
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 2: think about, like you know, like let's say Lamar get's

456
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 2: in a hole, what do you think about like Baltimore's

457
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:48,679
Speaker 2: ability I guess to dig themselves out of it.

458
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, I think it

459
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 1: could happen. I think part of Lamar's problem as a

460
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback, well, there are a couple of things. But one,

461
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 1: instead of looking to check down when the like the

462
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,200
Speaker 1: first pass isn't there, he's looking to run. But he's

463
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 1: so he's kind of like looking deep or looking to run.

464
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,359
Speaker 1: And I think like that inclination like that is conducive

465
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 1: maybe to being able to come back from behind, because

466
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 1: either like they might get a long touchdown, like he

467
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 1: might be fine kind of airing it out, or he

468
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 1: might be in a situation where he's able to pick

469
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:26,360
Speaker 1: up like pretty significant chunks of yardage with his legs,

470
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 1: so like maybe he could get them back. It's just

471
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 1: a question of not so much can he score the points,

472
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,480
Speaker 1: because I think maybe they could. It's just I don't

473
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 1: know if their defense on the road would be able

474
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,680
Speaker 1: to get the necessary stops for them to make significant

475
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:46,000
Speaker 1: ground in coming back, you know what I mean. But like,

476
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 1: I'm with you on on this. I'm going with Atlanta,

477
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 1: and I bet this like you, I bet this at

478
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 1: a better number, but I'm still comfortable at this number.

479
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:57,440
Speaker 1: I feel better about the possibility. And I should say

480
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 1: I think it's a probability of Atlanta scoring twenty eight

481
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 1: points or more relative to the possibility of the Ravens

482
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 1: scoring twenty six points. I think Atlanta has a really

483
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 1: good chance of getting into twenty eight points. I don't

484
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 1: think the Ravens have all that could have a chance

485
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,359
Speaker 1: of getting into twenty six points. So I feel pretty

486
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 1: decent about the one and a half here.

487
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and I think that, But I think that just

488
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 2: goes back into the fact that if you have two

489
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 2: good running teams that usually inflate like correlates with a

490
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:29,679
Speaker 2: higher total like, but only to a point where it's like,

491
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 2: there's a time when these these running plays become not

492
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,360
Speaker 2: conducive to keeping up with the other team. So yeah,

493
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 2: I'm totally with you.

494
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, final game here, Vikings at Patriots. Patriots

495
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 1: favored by five and a half, a forty nine point

496
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: five over under. The Vikings are fighting for a playoff spot.

497
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 1: The Pats are fighting for a bye week in the playoffs.

498
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on this game?

499
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:51,199
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, the Vikings got me.

500
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,160
Speaker 4: I was trying to be a little contrarian. I thought

501
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers would get it done in a big spot.

502
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 4: But you know, that team obviously has more problems than

503
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 4: then just you know what's going on on the offense

504
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 4: and whatnot.

505
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 2: So you know, now here, Tom Brady, I think this

506
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 2: line is pretty good.

507
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 4: First of all, I'll say that, like I have the

508
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,199
Speaker 4: total at forty nine and a half and I have

509
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,119
Speaker 4: the spread at five, and so the line here is

510
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 4: five and a half.

511
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 2: You know, tiny bit of value on Minnesota. I don't

512
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 2: love this bet.

513
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 4: Because I think the Patriots could very well win by

514
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 4: its touchdown, you know, just like we saw Minnesota beat

515
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 4: Green Bay by last week, you know, twenty four to seventeen.

516
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 2: So I don't love it.

517
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 4: There was some value I think on the over under

518
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 4: when it first dropped. I think it came out at

519
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:33,399
Speaker 4: what forty eight and has been met up. So yeah,

520
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 4: right now, this is just a game where I think,

521
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 4: you know, everyone's kind of talking about Tom Brady in

522
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 4: a lot of different contexts. Is he still a good

523
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 4: fantasy quarterback? Is he still a good real quarterback? I

524
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,399
Speaker 4: think it was Chris Westling that that said he was

525
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 4: no longer a good old quarterback, and now everyone's talking

526
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 4: about he's not.

527
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 2: A good fantasy quarterback. I think I think that he's fine.

528
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 1: Really.

529
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,399
Speaker 2: I think that he's made a lot of good throws

530
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 2: this year.

531
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,159
Speaker 4: You know, some I forget who it was, but one

532
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 4: of the PFF guys that I actually saw them do

533
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 4: a video where they're talking about how a lot of

534
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,120
Speaker 4: his best throws that he's made this year have actually

535
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 4: phoned incomplete, so you know, just not showing up on

536
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 4: the stat sheet. But I think, you know, this team

537
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 4: has a lot of different ways to beat you, and

538
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 4: I think that's key against the Vikings because the Vikings

539
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 4: they can run out a pretty good defense at you

540
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 4: man for man, but there's always gonna be those spots,

541
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 4: whether it's you know, at the linebacker position or you

542
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 4: know whatnot where you can tight ends generally have some

543
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 4: success against Minnesota, especially if you can keep them in

544
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 4: their base packages. So I think the Patriots have enough

545
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 4: chess pieces and enough know how with the coaching staff,

546
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 4: which is key when you play a team like a

547
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 4: Mike Zimmer team with talent, that's key. You're not gonna

548
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 4: be a poorly coach team and really and beat a

549
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 4: Mike Zimmer team. So I like the Patriots in this

550
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 4: spot to.

551
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:48,880
Speaker 2: Win the game.

552
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 4: But I have them again at five, and the line

553
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 4: we're talking here is five and a half, So I'm

554
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 4: gonna pick the Vikings.

555
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you in that this is I'd

556
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 1: say you like really thin edges their way kind of

557
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 1: regardless of how you're betting this, these lines feel pretty

558
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 1: good to me. So like in terms of like real betting,

559
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 1: like I'm I'm staying away from this game unless there's

560
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 1: some pretty significant line movement. But for the purposes of

561
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 1: this conversation, if I had to lean away, I would

562
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 1: take the under forty nine and a half. And it's

563
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 1: more of just like a gut feeling, you know, informed

564
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: I guess a little bit by some data. But you know,

565
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 1: as you mentioned the Vikings, they are good on defense,

566
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: and I think they have a defense that is good

567
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: at different levels. So I think they can combat enough

568
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 1: of what the Patriots look to do, and I think

569
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 1: they will probably try to slow the game down to

570
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: take the ball away from Brady. And then you know,

571
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 1: over the last half decade, Brady, even when he's been

572
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 1: at home, hasn't been nearly as good in the second

573
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 1: half of the season as he has been in the

574
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 1: first half of the season. And you know, maybe it's

575
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 1: like a temperature thing. Maybe it's just like he's wearing

576
00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 1: down as the season progresses, like what you know, whatever

577
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 1: it is, you know, and sometimes often there's like correlation

578
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 1: with whether Gronk is healthy at that point in the

579
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 1: season or not. Like there are lots in you know,

580
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 1: like one point Edelman was out in one of these

581
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 1: seasons in the second half of the season, So there

582
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 1: are lots of like over overlapping variables that factor into

583
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 1: all of this. But I mean it is something with Brady.

584
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 1: He's just not quite as good in the second half

585
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 1: of seasons.

586
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 4: I would actually push back and say, I would venture

587
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 4: to guess that a lot of it is due to

588
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 4: Gronk consistently having, you know, getting hurt and then missing

589
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,400
Speaker 4: like the second part of seasons more than not more

590
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,479
Speaker 4: than the first, and also Edelman doing it like one

591
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 4: or two times as well.

592
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 2: Like I would think that accounts.

593
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 4: I would say that accounts are like a good percentage

594
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 4: if you like you looked at the R squared or

595
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 4: whatever of that. Like, I don't think there's like a Brady.

596
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 4: Brady's just like wearing down repeatedly season after season. I mean,

597
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 4: look at his performances in the playoffs and the Super Bowls.

598
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,160
Speaker 4: I mean, forget like he threw for five hundred yards

599
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 4: last last playoffs game we saw him.

600
00:26:57,920 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 2: I don't think he's slowing down.

601
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,360
Speaker 4: I think I think it's just the Patriots have had

602
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 4: problems staying healthy with their best players, which is why

603
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:06,199
Speaker 4: you know in this one, I think you know, I

604
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,360
Speaker 4: was on board with kind of the total being met

605
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 4: up a little bit because I actually did have it

606
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,199
Speaker 4: at forty nine to five, and that's that is not

607
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 4: where it came out on. It's like, I'm like, I

608
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 4: do get you with the gut field because I think

609
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 4: I think Minnesota is.

610
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 2: A really good third down defense. They're really good at

611
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 2: situational defense, period. And anytime you have a situation a

612
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 2: good two good.

613
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 4: Teams and then you have one of them is good

614
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 4: in situational defense, regression is likely, and so that the

615
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 4: other team that you're used to scoring a lot of points,

616
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 4: the Patriots, may not.

617
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 2: And so I do get it from that angle. But

618
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 2: I don't think like there's a Brady just like something

619
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 2: happens to him in the second half of the season,

620
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 2: Like I can't, I can't get by now.

621
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna do a study unless I'm gonna

622
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 1: look at the numbers a little bit more. But I

623
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:48,919
Speaker 1: think you're gonna be marginally not not hugely wrong, but

624
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna be a little bit.

625
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 2: Next pot. Next pot, we'll discuss.

626
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 1: Okay, now I have extra work to do. Okay, we

627
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 1: have the two minute drill next. Right after, we checked

628
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 1: with Johnny Eween for some trend based sportsdding insights.

629
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 5: Good data is always in fashion. Here's John Ewing with

630
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 5: trend of the week.

631
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 6: The Oakland Raiders and Detroit Lions are double digit dogs

632
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 6: at home in Week thirteen. Large home dogs have historically

633
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 6: been undervalued, especially late in the season. From December to January,

634
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 6: home dogs of seven or more points have gone sixty

635
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 6: three and forty four against the spread. That's a fifty

636
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,679
Speaker 6: nine percent win rate since two thousand and three. Casual

637
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 6: betters undervalue teams like the Raiders and Lions because they

638
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 6: are out of the playoff picture, and overvalue Super Bowl

639
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 6: contenders like the Rams in Chiefs. Not only does history

640
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 6: suggest La and Casey are overrated, but the Action Network

641
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 6: NFL model agrees. Our projections have the Chiefs winning on

642
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 6: average by ten points and the Rams by five points.

643
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 6: More than seventy percent of spread tickets are on the favorites,

644
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 6: but smart money will take the dogs.

645
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 1: That was John. Be sure to check out his sports

646
00:28:55,200 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 1: betting articles each week at the Action Network. Chris minutes,

647
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 1: There's no there's no way, but whatever remaining non prime

648
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 1: time games, we're going to hit those in two minutes

649
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 1: or as close as we can get.

650
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 4: Falcons two minutes, you know, like like the Falcons Thanksgiving

651
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 4: version of two.

652
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,719
Speaker 1: Minutes right exactly Okay, here we go the Browns at

653
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 1: the Texans. Texans favored by six a forty seven point

654
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 1: five over under. The Browns have won two straight games

655
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 1: for the first time in forever, and the Texans are

656
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 1: riding the flukiest of eight game winning streaks.

657
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 4: That's a whole nother question. I'm not even going to

658
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 4: get into right now with the Texans. You know, I

659
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 4: like me some Texans.

660
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 1: I was trying to bait you.

661
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, but no so Deshaun Watson. I got a couple

662
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 2: of things here.

663
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 4: Deshaun Watson has not thrown more than twenty five passes

664
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 4: in the last six games. That is absurd. It's probably smart.

665
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 4: This is worrisome. You know, he's been at that twenty

666
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 4: five or under mark in terms of pass attempts in

667
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 4: these last six games, and yet he's taken twenty three sacks,

668
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 4: not three point nine a game that would be the

669
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 4: league lead.

670
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 2: And so like all this like reduced passing volume hasn't

671
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 2: actually done what they were trying to do. It's just

672
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 2: decreased the sacks. That is a little concerning.

673
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 4: The offensive line still can be a issue at times,

674
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 4: but just remember that for fantasy dfs when you're projecting

675
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 4: these guys Hopkins, they're targets, Like, if they're really going

676
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 4: to throw twenty five passes game, thirty percent of that

677
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 4: for a guy like Hopkins is still some targets. So

678
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 4: that's that's not a lot of targets. And on the

679
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 4: other side, Houston has been a smash spot for tight

680
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 4: ends all year long, twenty ninth in DVOA against the position.

681
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 4: David Njoku a plus four point three opponent rating on DraftKings.

682
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 4: That's opponent plus minus in the Fantasy Labs model. That

683
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 4: is a top three mark on the slate among tight ends.

684
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 1: Forty nine Ers at Seahawks Seahawks favored by ten a

685
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 1: forty six point over under. The Seahawks have won two straight.

686
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 1: The forty nine Ers are one of the worst teams

687
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 1: in the league and playing a third string quarterback as

688
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 1: they traveled to Seattle for Richard Sherman's homecoming hashtag revenge game.

689
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, so one of the good folks on Twitter actually

690
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:50,719
Speaker 4: asked me about this one, and I had already had

691
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 4: the nugget in here. So the question was essentially, you

692
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 4: know why you were very high on David Moore of

693
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 4: these last couple of weeks. Why are you lower on

694
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 4: him this week? And it was simply because we're David Moore,

695
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 4: linds up. He lines up sixty three percent at a time.

696
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 2: Across from where Richard Sherman will be.

697
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, and not only that, but this dantage, most receivers

698
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 4: are moving around a lot, so that sixty three percent

699
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 4: of all the receivers on the slate is actually the

700
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 4: third highest in terms of being in one position on

701
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 4: the outside. So this is kind of a situation where

702
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 4: he's not liable to move around a lot till he

703
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 4: probably is going to get caught up in Sherman. And

704
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 4: Sherman has been targeted at the lowest rate in the

705
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 4: league this year among cornerbacks with any kind of significant

706
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 4: playing time, So just not a good spot for him.

707
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 1: Totally agree. One thing, I would push back a little bit.

708
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 1: Maybe they actually want to target Sherman a little bit,

709
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 1: just maybe, And David Moore he might be the type

710
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 1: of guy to be able to win that. Like Sherman

711
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: did allow six receptions on six targets last week for

712
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: like one hundred and one yards, eighty nine of those

713
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: yards going to Mike Evans. So but I mean maybe.

714
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 7: Mike Evans is so much better than and you know,

715
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 7: I love me some David Moore Sheen hairyards, but I mean,

716
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,959
Speaker 7: like Mike, like you throw to Mike Evans on anyone

717
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 7: because he's just big, and like he just he's open

718
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 7: when he's covered.

719
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 2: Like, I mean, I could see it. But I think

720
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 2: if you if you want to attack sherm if what

721
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 2: I would do, I would go Tyler Lockett because I

722
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 2: think he'd have trouble with that kind of receiver.

723
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, David Moore obviously isn't as big as

724
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 1: Richard Sherman, but like he has that big body type

725
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 1: of style. All Right, Panthers apt Buccaneers. Panthers favored by

726
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 1: three and a half a fifty four point five over under.

727
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 1: The Panthers have lost three straight. The Bucks have lost

728
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 1: four or five a rematch with the Panthers forty two

729
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 1: to twenty eight victory in week nine.

730
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, so there's a couple of things. Win could be

731
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 2: an issue in this game.

732
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 4: Forecast for over ten miles per hour in terms of win,

733
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 4: which generally drives games.

734
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 2: Toward the under. You also have an interesting one.

735
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 4: This is the second game of division, so between weeks

736
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 4: nine and sixteen, divisional unders fifty points are higher. This

737
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 4: is something you guys can check out the Action Network

738
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 4: betting guys as well.

739
00:32:58,160 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 2: Not that's like this one, but.

740
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 4: Between He's nine to sixteen, divisional unders of fifty or

741
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 4: higher have gone forty one, eighteen and one since three

742
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 4: and covered by nearly five points. So this, you know,

743
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 4: still gonna be a lot of scoring even if you

744
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 4: subtract five points, but could be a game that's a

745
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 4: little lower scoring then people might actually think.

746
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: The Broncos at the Bengals Broncos favored by one and

747
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 1: a half a forty five point over under. The over

748
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 1: under his moves up three points. The Broncos have won

749
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: two straight games against playoff teams. The Bengals are starting

750
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 1: a backup quarterback in Jeff Driscoll.

751
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, so this is not just any backup quarterback. This

752
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 4: is this is Jeff Driscoll. He's a pretty interesting backup quarterback.

753
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 4: You know, he's a guy who he can he can

754
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 4: run a little bit, he can move a little bit.

755
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 4: He's you know, he's got two touchdowns on the ground

756
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 4: already this season. So I think he's a guy that

757
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 4: if you're looking for kind of a contrarian DFS play.

758
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 2: He's not the worst guy in the world.

759
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I said Broncos favored by one and a half.

760
00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: That was way off. Yeah, by favored by five? Right, Okay, Yeah,

761
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: next name Bill, I need to fire my producer. That

762
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 1: was whoever put these notes together did a really crazy

763
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 1: yeah all.

764
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 4: The way on a weekly basis. Whoever's doing the notes

765
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 4: in the Outliners freaking sucks.

766
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 1: Man, totally million it in. Okay. Bill's at Dolphins. Dolphins

767
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 1: favored by a forty point over under. The spread opened

768
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,959
Speaker 1: at negative seven. The Dolphins have lost two straight games

769
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 1: but are still fighting for a playoff spot. The Bills

770
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: have won to straight.

771
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 2: I'll give you two nuggets.

772
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 4: The first nugget is that I sat here blankly staring

773
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 4: at the screen for a long time before coming up

774
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 4: with a nugget.

775
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, what did you saying about this game? Really?

776
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 3: Like?

777
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 4: So, you know, the interesting thing, I guess, you know,

778
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 4: from a fantasy perspective and whatnot, is that you know,

779
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 4: Ryan Tannehill's back, and you know, so he's played six games,

780
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 4: and in those six games, Kay Stills has a forty

781
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 4: percent air yard share. He's got five hundred air yards.

782
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 4: No one else on the team has more than two hundred.

783
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 4: The number two and number three guys, Albert Wilson and

784
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 4: jackim Grant will not be suiting up this weekend.

785
00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 2: Danny Amado is the.

786
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 4: Number four guy also doesn't look good, so there's just

787
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 4: a lot of air yards kind of left over.

788
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 2: One of these guys is gonna get Tradeavius White In coverage.

789
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 4: They moved Kenny Stiels around pretty equally, so he's about

790
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 4: thirty three thirty three, thirty three percent to all three,

791
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 4: you know, left right slot. So I think Kenny Steals,

792
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 4: especially with that greasy wheel, might get going this week,

793
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 4: even though no one's gonna ever think twice about this game,

794
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:23,760
Speaker 4: because it's it's the Bills and the offense.

795
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:26,800
Speaker 1: All right. Cardinals at Packers. Packers favored by fourteen a

796
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 1: forty four point five over under. The Cardinals are two

797
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 1: and nine and in the running for the number one

798
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,319
Speaker 1: overall pick. The Packers have lost two straight and they

799
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:34,919
Speaker 1: really need to run the table to have a shot

800
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 1: at the playoffs.

801
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, and by the way, one of those nine losses

802
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:42,359
Speaker 4: came against thee op Ger Raiders. Aaron Jones seventy nine

803
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:45,280
Speaker 4: percent of the snaps and forty three of the last

804
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 4: forty eight backfield carries over the last three games. When

805
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 4: I did my rankings model this week, Aaron Jones is

806
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 4: the number five running back and I was very I was,

807
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 4: I was kind of taking it back, and you know,

808
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 4: there was like no tinker I could do to kind

809
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 4: of like knock him out, like he's just he's just

810
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:05,359
Speaker 4: up there for me this week, I think the only

811
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 4: concern really is that they blow him out. Also, David Batiari,

812
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 4: the tackle for the Packers, he is banged up, might

813
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 4: not play. He's the number two tackle in the league

814
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 4: according to Pro Football Focus, also number one in past blocking,

815
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 4: number twenty in run blocking.

816
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 2: So this could be a situation where they actually lean

817
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 2: on the run more.

818
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:24,879
Speaker 4: And I am actually kind of leaning toward the under

819
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 4: in this game, if anyone out there is curious.

820
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,319
Speaker 1: In this next game, Jets of Titans. Titans favored by

821
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 1: a forty point five over under. The spread has dropped

822
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 1: from ten and a half. These are two teams really

823
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 1: no one cares about.

824
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 2: I mean, I give credit to the Titans.

825
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:40,359
Speaker 4: They actually made that Monday Monday night right, Yeah, Monday

826
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:41,240
Speaker 4: night game pretty interesting.

827
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 2: I mean I think.

828
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 4: Mariota is like sixteen of his first sixteen or something

829
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 4: like that. But it's twenty eighteen. Ey Manning can go

830
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 4: seventeen for eighteen, so I guess that's not really a

831
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 4: big deal. But for this one, Mariota, if you if

832
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 4: you're you know, in DFS, I think he might. You know,

833
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 4: people are gonna consider him as a value and I

834
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 4: think he is definitely in play. But one thing that consider,

835
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 4: Mariota tends to do well in situations where he needs

836
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 4: to score points and come back. When he's been a

837
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 4: favorite of more than a field goal, he actually has

838
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 4: a negative two point three plus minus and that's despite

839
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:14,760
Speaker 4: a sixty six percent consistency rating, So that essentially means

840
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 4: it's all floor and no webside.

841
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:21,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty unenticing. Okay, last game here, Bears at Giants.

842
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 1: The Bears favored by a forty four point five over under.

843
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 1: Trubisky is out for the Bears, who have won five straight.

844
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:30,800
Speaker 1: The Giants are riding the Eli Manning train to nowhere.

845
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 2: Yeah.

846
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 4: I think because of that, people probably aren't going to

847
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 4: look at this game in DFS either. But Odell Beckham

848
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 4: is actually priced below eight K on draftings. And there's

849
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 4: been five times in his career where he's been priced

850
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 4: in the seven thousand, So I didn't want to just

851
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 4: look at under eight k because that would obviously be

852
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 4: his rookiears and then you know, it would just kind

853
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 4: of throw things off. So in the seven thousands, he's

854
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:56,280
Speaker 4: been priced there five times, and he has hit value

855
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 4: in four of those times eighty percent of the time,

856
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 4: plus five point nine plus minus and twenty three point

857
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:03,800
Speaker 4: four draftings points per game in those games.

858
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 2: So really good case for him as as a tournament play.

859
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 1: This week, all right, Coming up is our third and

860
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 1: long segment onlineup building in Slave Strategy. Right after Josh

861
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 1: appleballm tells us which game the wise guys are betting

862
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 1: this week.

863
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 5: The money talks and action, apple Bomb is all ears.

864
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 5: This is the Sharp Report.

865
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:29,320
Speaker 2: NFL Week thirteen.

866
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,240
Speaker 3: We are traveling to Detroit, Michigan for a one o'clock

867
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 3: showdown between the La Rams and Detroit Lions. This game

868
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 3: opened with the Rams as a minus ten favorite, and

869
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 3: they are currently the most lopsided play of the week.

870
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,320
Speaker 3: They're getting almost eighty percent of spread bets, with recreational

871
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 3: betters fighting as fast as they can to lay the

872
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 3: points and get down on the Rams and what they

873
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:51,279
Speaker 3: think will be a blowout. However, Sharps are buying low

874
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 3: on Detroit.

875
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:53,319
Speaker 1: Take one look at the record.

876
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,359
Speaker 3: Rams are ten to one, however they're only four, five

877
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 3: and two against the spread. Meanwhile, the Lions are four

878
00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:00,320
Speaker 3: and seven, but yet they are six and five ats. However,

879
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 3: the real reason Sharp's like Detroit here they seek a

880
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 3: bit of a trap spot. Detroit is only getting twenty

881
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 3: one percent of bets but forty percent of dollars, so

882
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 3: telling you that the bigger Sharper wagers here are grabbing

883
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 3: the points of Detroit, not laying them. Also seen a

884
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 3: really Sharp line freeze in this game.

885
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 2: So even though you.

886
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 3: Have eight out of ten bets overwhelming public support on

887
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 3: the Rams, this line open at ten, and really it's

888
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 3: remained at ten. In fact, you've even seen it dip

889
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 3: down to nine and a half. Right now, it's at

890
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,439
Speaker 3: ten at Bookmaker and Pinnacle. But the juice is ten

891
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:31,759
Speaker 3: minus one fifteen for the Lions, so it looks like

892
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 3: it may fall off that key number of ten down

893
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 3: nine and a half. Sharp's been hammering Detroit all week long.

894
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 3: They get done hard on Detroit early at Chris Buckeye.

895
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 3: Then they came back on the Lions at ABC Heritage

896
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,760
Speaker 3: Chris again Sportsbook the Orleans as well as GT bets.

897
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 3: So using our Sports Insights bet signals, we've checked almost

898
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 3: nine overall steam and reverse line moves on Detroit, so

899
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 3: that overload of sharp action has made the line state

900
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 3: at ten even though you have that overwhelming public support

901
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 3: on the Rams. Detroit right also is in a sneaky

902
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 3: good spot. It's actually really profitable to fade West Coast

903
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 3: favorites going east for a one o'clock game, So kind

904
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,240
Speaker 3: of the body clock of an NFL player going almost

905
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 3: all cross country for an early game usually is a

906
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 3: good fade spot teams in that position. If you fade

907
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 3: West Coast favorites at one o'clock games going east, it's

908
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 3: fifty nine point five percent ATS, and Detroit would match

909
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 3: that spot. And also Detroit is just in a classic

910
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 3: contrion spot. So so far this season, teams getting less

911
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 3: than thirty percent of bets are sixty one percent ATS,

912
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 3: and it's even more profitable late in season large home dogs,

913
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 3: So big home dogs late in season getting seven points

914
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 3: or more at home in January or December, they are

915
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 3: fifty eight point one percent ats.

916
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 1: So even though the public.

917
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:50,359
Speaker 3: Season easy easy rams blowout win Sharps are buying low

918
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 3: on Detroit at plus ten.

919
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:54,239
Speaker 1: Right, that was Josh. Be sure to check out his

920
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:58,959
Speaker 1: article to sharp report on the Action Network. Chris. Let's

921
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 1: dig into the fantasy models. Let's look at the ownership

922
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 1: projections in there, obviously provided by Adam Levittan, and let's

923
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:09,839
Speaker 1: think about who out of these guys we might want

924
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 1: a roster, who we might want to pivot away from.

925
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 1: Let's start at the quarterback position. Two quarterbacks high projection

926
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 1: totals in terms of ownership, Cam Newton, Jamis Winston playing

927
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:22,839
Speaker 1: against each other in that game you mentioned there were

928
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 1: potential win concerns, and also second game against each other

929
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:30,359
Speaker 1: this year. What are you looking to do with those quarterbacks?

930
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 2: I think I am going to be paying attention to

931
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 2: the forecast. And here's the reason why.

932
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 4: If you sort by projected ownership in our models at quarterback,

933
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 4: you know you have you have Newton, Winston, Jackson, Mame.

934
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 4: All three of them besides Jackson have a projected plus

935
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 4: minus of at least five point four. Jackson's projected plus

936
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:48,359
Speaker 4: minus is.

937
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:49,400
Speaker 2: Two point five.

938
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 4: Right, so essentially what our models are telling us right

939
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 4: here with this one is that Lamar Jackson seems like

940
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 4: the like the nut play, like the easy, like just

941
00:41:58,200 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 4: plug and forget it.

942
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 2: But he's actually probably.

943
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 4: The worst play of those four guys that we just

944
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 4: mentioned to play, just from a pure value standpoint. And

945
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 4: so you know, because of that, I think I'm definitely

946
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 4: going to be checking that forecast because I would like

947
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 4: to play one of the other quarterbacks.

948
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 2: I think if I have to, I'm fine with getting

949
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 2: up to Cam.

950
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 4: I mean, these quarterback prices don't really they're not really

951
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 4: too separated on DraftKings to where it's like, okay, I'm

952
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 4: paying sixty six hundred for Cam or you know, six

953
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:30,400
Speaker 4: six k for wins. That's not usually it's not going

954
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:32,399
Speaker 4: to be a huge deal at this point this season,

955
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 4: especially when there's some value at the other position. So

956
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 4: I right now probably if I had to just go

957
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 4: with one, I probably go Cam Newton, just because even

958
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 4: if there is when our win concerns, excuse me, you know,

959
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 4: he's a mobile quarterback, he scores a lot of his

960
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 4: fantasy points on the ground. I still feel pretty good

961
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 4: about him. And then you know, there's always Jared Goff,

962
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 4: but that's just that's just a game where that large

963
00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 4: spread you never know what could kind of happen. But

964
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 4: I mean, Jared Goff has been the time fantasy quarterback

965
00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 4: over this kind of second half of the season, so

966
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:06,240
Speaker 4: I wouldn't have a problem playing golf, but probably leaning

967
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:07,399
Speaker 4: towards Newton right now.

968
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, And you mentioned Lamar Jackson. It seems like one

969
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 1: of the reasons for starting him would be the high

970
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 1: rushing floor that he has. But if it's gotten to

971
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:19,720
Speaker 1: the point where from a value perspective, he doesn't really

972
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,479
Speaker 1: give you as much as you think he might, that's fine.

973
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 1: It's the type of situation where you don't have to

974
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 1: play him. You can you can bet like his rushing

975
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 1: prop instead, you know, like there are ways to get exposure.

976
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:31,439
Speaker 4: And I should say that I should say this though.

977
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 4: You know, our models use like a Pakoda which is

978
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:38,240
Speaker 4: like the Baseball model simscore method for the foreign ceilings,

979
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 4: where we're kind of looking at similar players to the

980
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 4: player we have projected and how that player has done

981
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:45,720
Speaker 4: and you know, his most like the thirty most similar games,

982
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:48,279
Speaker 4: and we kind of derive floor and ceiling from that.

983
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 4: And Lamar Jackson of those four quarterbacks we just mentioned,

984
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 4: actually has the lowest floor and it's not even close

985
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:58,919
Speaker 4: five point nine as we record this, all the other

986
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:03,040
Speaker 4: three quarterbacks that we mentioned, Winston, Newton and Mahomes have

987
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,840
Speaker 4: at least an eleven point seven. So there there's just

988
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 4: still because Jackson is such an unknown, there's still this

989
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 4: kind of disaster factor that you know, you know, could happen.

990
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 4: I don't think it will, but it's just not as

991
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 4: like a smash play as you might think.

992
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely, I mean, based on the factors that go

993
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 1: into the model for projecting floor and ceiling, like he's

994
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 1: he's probably comparable to guys like Tim Tebow or something

995
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 1: like that, you know, like those are probably those are

996
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 1: probably like some some of the guys for whom like

997
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:35,799
Speaker 1: he's at this point like kind of being compared and

998
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 1: it's like that. I mean, you can see like the

999
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 1: floor that's right there, So it's anyway, but I will

1000
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 1: for rushing prop, I will definitely be looking at that,

1001
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 1: and I will be using the Fantasy Labs prop tool,

1002
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 1: which is powered by our industry leading projections created by

1003
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 1: Sean Corner aka the Odds Maker. This season, the NFL

1004
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:53,720
Speaker 1: Props with a bet quality of ten or one ninety

1005
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 1: six ninety one to nine, good for a hit rate

1006
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 1: of sixty six percent. To access the tools, subscribe to

1007
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 1: Fantasy Labs, where you can get a five day trial

1008
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 1: for just fifteen ninety five. Chris any other quarterbacks to

1009
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 1: talk about?

1010
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:07,280
Speaker 4: So Andrew Wook, I mean he's still He's got fifty

1011
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 4: eight hundred on DraftKings. The touchdowns are there every game.

1012
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 4: People probably won't be too enthused about playing him because

1013
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 4: it's the Jacksonville Jaguars who do have a good defense.

1014
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,239
Speaker 4: But you know, I think you keep riding Andrew Luck

1015
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 4: in this spot, you know, especially if you're getting low

1016
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 4: ownership and a I mean he's cheaper than with Mark

1017
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 4: Jackson for the mistakes.

1018
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely someone who's intriguing there. And I think you're right.

1019
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:34,440
Speaker 1: I think his ownership will be reduced because of the matchup.

1020
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:38,240
Speaker 1: Let's pivot two running backs. We talked about Todd Gurley

1021
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 1: a little bit at Detroit. Obviously, by the way, he

1022
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 1: is number one in our rankings. Subscribers can find our

1023
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 1: rankings each week at Action network dot com Slash Fantasy

1024
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 1: Thoughts on how to approach Gurley, I think it's for

1025
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 1: most people, they're going to be rostering either Gurley or

1026
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:57,360
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey or Kareem Hunt. How are you approaching those three?

1027
00:45:58,000 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 2: I'm trying to jam Gurley and if I can.

1028
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 4: I mean, there's a chance that I might end up

1029
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 4: with two of these guys, because Kareem Hunt at seventy

1030
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 4: eight hundred is kind of at a price point where

1031
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 4: you don't necessarily he's not like super super expensive. But

1032
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:12,799
Speaker 4: another guy I really want a roster that'll probably end

1033
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 4: up on all my teams is Aaron Jones.

1034
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 2: I just kind of mentioned them.

1035
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:17,239
Speaker 4: You know, I know they're you know, the OI is

1036
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 4: a little banged up, but I think they're gonna wan

1037
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:21,279
Speaker 4: on the run. I think this is a team you

1038
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 4: can run on in the Cardinals, and I think the

1039
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 4: game script, even if things don't go exactly according to plan,

1040
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 4: still favors Jones in a variety of ways. So I

1041
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 4: think at sixty seven hundred on DraftKings, he's kind of

1042
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 4: a middle tier guy that you want to look at

1043
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 4: and then you kind of depending on the build, trying

1044
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 4: to get up to Girley. Don't mind playing McCaffrey at all, though.

1045
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you obviously for Jones a big home

1046
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 1: favorite and going against a Cardinals team that I mean,

1047
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:49,719
Speaker 1: maybe their defense isn't actually like the worst in the

1048
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 1: league against their run, but just because they've been in

1049
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 1: games where they're behind, other teams can just run against

1050
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 1: them at will. So they've allowed, if not the most

1051
00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 1: fantasy points in the league to posing running backs like

1052
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 1: a top three mark to opposing backfields, so they definitely

1053
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 1: are vulnerable there. And Aaron Jones is someone who's intriguing

1054
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:12,239
Speaker 1: two other guys who are probably at least right now

1055
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:16,280
Speaker 1: looking like they could be on significant numbers of lineups,

1056
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 1: Carlos Hyde and Philip Lindsay, both on the cheaper side.

1057
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:21,759
Speaker 1: How are you approaching those two?

1058
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 4: Hi does a guy that he's probably gonna make it too,

1059
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 4: because I think he's just kind of like taken the

1060
00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 4: free square. We don't know exactly how the backfield will

1061
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 4: break down between Hyde and t. J. Yelden in win

1062
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,799
Speaker 4: or four Net's absence, but I think Hi is kind

1063
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 4: of a for better or where it's a one for

1064
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 4: one replacement for four Nett to where you kind of

1065
00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 4: slide him in that role and you continue doing what

1066
00:47:46,000 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 4: you were doing with TJ. Yelden, which is utilizing him

1067
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 4: in the passing game. Now we have a new quarterback,

1068
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 4: so there are kind of a lot of moving pieces,

1069
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,279
Speaker 4: and there are game script concerns here.

1070
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:57,720
Speaker 2: But when you're.

1071
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 4: Talking about a guy a running back with seventeen to

1072
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:05,800
Speaker 4: twenty touch upside goal line Carrie upside for thirty three hundred,

1073
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:09,840
Speaker 4: I think you just take that, especially in cash games

1074
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 4: and tournaments. Obviously you're trying to hit the top three

1075
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 4: highest scoring or top two running backs on the slate

1076
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:18,719
Speaker 4: if at all possible, and so you're obviously going to

1077
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 4: be pivoting there. I think that favors Windsy a lot

1078
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:23,279
Speaker 4: more at favors guys in the middle tier, a lot

1079
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:26,239
Speaker 4: more guys like Aaron Jones and those guys over you know,

1080
00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 4: jamming in a McCaffrey or a Hunt or somebody like

1081
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 4: that in the high end. Always think that the military

1082
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:33,719
Speaker 4: plays are where the leverages and tournaments. But just for

1083
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 4: a cash game, I think if you're fine with with

1084
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:37,440
Speaker 4: going with Carlos Hide if you need.

1085
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 1: Them, okay, let's go to wide receiver, one guy who

1086
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 1: is near the top of our projections, if actually not

1087
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:45,720
Speaker 1: at the top of our projections. For ownership Corey Davis

1088
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:49,360
Speaker 1: going against the New York Jets. Obviously he has that

1089
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:52,799
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football discount and that his salary came out

1090
00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 1: before the Titans played on Monday Night Football. How are

1091
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:56,879
Speaker 1: you approaching him?

1092
00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 2: So this kind of goes It relates to what we

1093
00:49:01,080 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 2: just talked about with Mariota where.

1094
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:08,800
Speaker 4: Corey Davis Quta loong touchdown last week. I believe the

1095
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:10,880
Speaker 4: play was a very high air yard play as well,

1096
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:15,880
Speaker 4: and that's just a situation that it might not happen

1097
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:19,400
Speaker 4: against the Jets. So I'm a little bit wary of

1098
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:21,920
Speaker 4: it with Davis just because this could just be one

1099
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:26,359
Speaker 4: of those normal Titans games where nothing much happens at

1100
00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:30,200
Speaker 4: all for either team, and that like most of Davis's

1101
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 4: big games have come in situations where you know, not

1102
00:49:33,520 --> 00:49:36,839
Speaker 4: that they were necessarily trailing, but again better kind of

1103
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:38,440
Speaker 4: offensive teams that you at least need to be a

1104
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 4: little bit aggressive against in terms of the Patriots and

1105
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:45,600
Speaker 4: the Dallas Cowboys, whereas I don't know how to feel

1106
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:46,239
Speaker 4: about the Jets.

1107
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:47,840
Speaker 2: So I'm a little wary about it.

1108
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 4: But I don't hate it because at the end of

1109
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 4: the day, you know, you still follow the targets and

1110
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:54,959
Speaker 4: the air yards, and Corey Davis has been right around

1111
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,800
Speaker 4: thirty percent all year in terms of you know, target

1112
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 4: share and air yard share for the Tennessee because they

1113
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 4: really don't have any anywhere else to go with the football.

1114
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 4: So I don't hate it, but I'm he's not a

1115
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:07,319
Speaker 4: guy that I'm trying to land on if I can

1116
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:07,719
Speaker 4: help it.

1117
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, and so Chris, just to follow up on what

1118
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 1: you're saying. As you were talking, I was looking at

1119
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 1: the models and I noticed that Levitan has actually updated

1120
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 1: the projections and bumped Corey Davis down a little bit.

1121
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:20,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, something for people to keep in mind, and

1122
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,960
Speaker 1: also a reason for people to subscribe to Fantasy Labs

1123
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 1: to look at our models, because we do update our

1124
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:30,600
Speaker 1: ownership projections regularly throughout the week based on what we

1125
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:34,280
Speaker 1: are hearing around the industry on how people are talking

1126
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 1: about guys.

1127
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 4: And I just got to, you know, give a real

1128
00:50:36,640 --> 00:50:39,080
Speaker 4: shout out to my dude, Sean Corner. You know, he's

1129
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 4: kind of he's kind of with you guys on the

1130
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:42,359
Speaker 4: Wednesday pot so I get to talk to him quite

1131
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 4: as much. But he's been really killing it with the

1132
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 4: models this year on Fantasy webs like I think if

1133
00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:50,319
Speaker 4: you were ever thinking about subscribing to Fantasy Labs, now

1134
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:52,520
Speaker 4: is the time, Becausehan is not just doing NFL like

1135
00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 4: he's he's doing the models like for everything, like and

1136
00:50:56,200 --> 00:50:58,719
Speaker 4: you know, like last week, actually I was.

1137
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:00,279
Speaker 2: Noticing it a bunch guys.

1138
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 4: I believe I jumped on the pod with Ian the

1139
00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:07,319
Speaker 4: Monday Pod and we recorded late Sunday night, and we're

1140
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,360
Speaker 4: just talking about I forget what the exact scenario is,

1141
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 4: but I believe it was the winning Millie lineup had

1142
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:14,480
Speaker 4: whatever whoever the two chalk running backs were, was it

1143
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 4: like Barkley and somebody.

1144
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 2: Else of all the top running backs?

1145
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:20,440
Speaker 4: Like our models literally had the exact right order of

1146
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 4: which running back you should fade and play and it worked.

1147
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 2: Out exactly like that.

1148
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 4: And then I wrote about on the with the Showdown

1149
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:30,879
Speaker 4: slate with the Houston Monday Tennessee Monday Night game, how

1150
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 4: I thought it was interesting that on sambul like our

1151
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 4: models essentially said, hey, play Deshaun Watson over DeAndre Hopkins.

1152
00:51:39,280 --> 00:51:41,759
Speaker 4: And that's something like you don't necessarily because you know,

1153
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 4: Watson has actually had the lower floor this year. Hopkins

1154
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:46,399
Speaker 4: has been the more consistent guy. And sure enough, there

1155
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 4: it goes again. You know, Watson is the play so

1156
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 4: just kind of nailing like the the one v one

1157
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 4: decisions that you have to make with a lot of accuracy.

1158
00:51:55,160 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 4: So shouts to Sean and yeah, definitely check out those

1159
00:51:57,600 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 4: models that labs.

1160
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,839
Speaker 1: Okay, and one guy who has moved up in our

1161
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 1: models Kenny Galladay obviously playing in that game high scoring

1162
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 1: game in Detroit, on the other side of which you

1163
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:12,480
Speaker 1: have Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods. All three of those

1164
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:15,279
Speaker 1: guys now have high ownership projections in the models. What

1165
00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 1: are your thoughts on Golladay and then on the duo

1166
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 1: of Rams wide receivers.

1167
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:24,840
Speaker 4: I would much rather play both of the Rams receivers

1168
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:29,919
Speaker 4: before Galladay only because, especially with Cooper a cup out,

1169
00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:33,240
Speaker 4: we have seen just on a consistent basis, these guys

1170
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:36,879
Speaker 4: put up, put up numbers, and put up floors. Even

1171
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:39,239
Speaker 4: if they don't hit a ceiling, they're putting up a floor.

1172
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,880
Speaker 4: Whereas Galladay has kind of been like hit or mistic.

1173
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 4: He's usually hit, but he has missed a little bit

1174
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:47,480
Speaker 4: more and against a team where he's like again talked

1175
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:51,000
Speaker 4: about it earlier, he's the only guy. And anytime you're

1176
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:52,840
Speaker 4: the only guy, you have a defense that has not

1177
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 4: been good, but a defense that can get pressure. And

1178
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:56,920
Speaker 4: that's the one thing that the Lions are trying to

1179
00:52:57,080 --> 00:53:00,720
Speaker 4: kind of work through and avoid because you know that

1180
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:02,760
Speaker 4: they don't really have those the same kind of outlet

1181
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:03,279
Speaker 4: guy and Tate.

1182
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:04,439
Speaker 2: You know, they do have Riddick.

1183
00:53:04,440 --> 00:53:07,120
Speaker 4: They're using Ellington in that role, but if the Rams

1184
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 4: are getting pressure on Stafford, there's a chance that Ellington

1185
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:12,880
Speaker 4: ends up catching like the eight balls instead of Gallaty

1186
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:15,799
Speaker 4: or something like that. So I feel a little better

1187
00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:19,239
Speaker 4: in cash games playing these Rams receivers with you know,

1188
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:21,719
Speaker 4: getting coached by Sean. They going against the bad defense

1189
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:23,359
Speaker 4: because there's only so many places the Rams are going

1190
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:25,000
Speaker 4: with the ball. They're not the only other guy they're

1191
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 4: really putting out there is Josh Reynolds, and you know,

1192
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:29,239
Speaker 4: the tight ends kind of mixed in here and there,

1193
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:30,800
Speaker 4: and girl is going to catch some passes. But this

1194
00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:33,000
Speaker 4: is a very concentrated offense, so you can kind of

1195
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:35,880
Speaker 4: rely on Cooks and Woods to put up digits every week.

1196
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:38,000
Speaker 4: And they're still kind of priced in that range where

1197
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 4: you can afford you can afford them.

1198
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 1: Okay, one more wide receiver. We are projecting for high

1199
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 1: ownership Dj Moore going against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay obviously

1200
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:49,760
Speaker 1: one of the worst teams in the league and pass defense,

1201
00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:51,880
Speaker 1: and then they on top of that, they have a

1202
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:55,120
Speaker 1: secondary and really just a whole defense that is significantly injured.

1203
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:58,319
Speaker 1: And DJ Moore, especially over the last two weeks, is

1204
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:00,839
Speaker 1: really starting to come into his own, flashing a lot

1205
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:02,959
Speaker 1: of the potential that you know made him a first

1206
00:54:03,040 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 1: round draft pick in the first place. What are you

1207
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:06,279
Speaker 1: doing with him?

1208
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:10,560
Speaker 4: He's another one where don't feel quite as confident playing him.

1209
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:12,319
Speaker 2: The models kind of bear that out as well.

1210
00:54:12,600 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 4: Of all the players projected for double digit ownership or

1211
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:20,880
Speaker 4: thirteen to sixteen percent or more in ownership, more in

1212
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:24,160
Speaker 4: Stefan Diggs are the only two out of the seven

1213
00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:27,239
Speaker 4: guys at wide receiver who don't have a projective plus

1214
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:29,399
Speaker 4: minus of at least three point three points. So he's

1215
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:32,880
Speaker 4: down at one point seven just not quite as good

1216
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:34,880
Speaker 4: of a value. And then you look at the ownership

1217
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 4: and it's the second highest ownership projection right now. Obviously

1218
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 4: that will, you know, continue to be updated as the

1219
00:54:40,320 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 4: weekend progresses.

1220
00:54:41,200 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 2: But what essentially what the models are telling you is

1221
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:44,399
Speaker 2: kind of what I kind my.

1222
00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 4: Gut feels as well, which is that just not really

1223
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 4: a lot of leverage there to playing him kind of

1224
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 4: one of those chalk plays that we feel good about,

1225
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:54,080
Speaker 4: but we can't really be too confident in. You we

1226
00:54:54,120 --> 00:54:56,640
Speaker 4: have a pretty small sample as far as you know

1227
00:54:56,719 --> 00:54:58,920
Speaker 4: his career in this league, and you know, I think

1228
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:00,279
Speaker 4: he could very well have a big g but he

1229
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:02,000
Speaker 4: could also have another one of those games like he

1230
00:55:02,040 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 4: had against Pittsburgh where you had five targets and four

1231
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 4: catches for twenty yards. So he's a guy I'll probably

1232
00:55:06,680 --> 00:55:09,000
Speaker 4: try to get off of as well, just because he's

1233
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:12,799
Speaker 4: not really a slam dunk value to where you need

1234
00:55:12,840 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 4: to jam him in or make sure you have him.

1235
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:18,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, wide range of outcomes, a really low floor. Let's

1236
00:55:18,400 --> 00:55:20,799
Speaker 1: talk about tight ends. There are three guys who are

1237
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:24,240
Speaker 1: really catching my eye here. Travis Kelcey against Oakland, Oakland

1238
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 1: one of the worst teams in the league, and pass

1239
00:55:26,239 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 1: defense against tight ends. Eric Ebron going against Jacksonville. You know,

1240
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:32,960
Speaker 1: a good spot for him and that now it seems

1241
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 1: obviously injury concerns with him, so we need to check

1242
00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:37,799
Speaker 1: that a good situation with him and that Jack Doyle

1243
00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:40,600
Speaker 1: is now out, so Eric Ebron should be getting a

1244
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:43,680
Speaker 1: lot of the tight end work there, and Luck is

1245
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 1: a quarterback who historically has favored his tight ends. And

1246
00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:50,279
Speaker 1: then Matt Lacos as an injury fill in at the

1247
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:54,520
Speaker 1: minimum price on DraftKings going against a Cincinnati defense that

1248
00:55:54,560 --> 00:55:57,719
Speaker 1: has been exploited by tight ends. So those are the

1249
00:55:57,760 --> 00:55:59,800
Speaker 1: three guys. What are your thoughts on them?

1250
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:02,319
Speaker 4: I think Ebron He's going to be a very high

1251
00:56:02,360 --> 00:56:04,640
Speaker 4: owned guy. That's the guy I would feel a lot

1252
00:56:04,719 --> 00:56:07,919
Speaker 4: less comfortable about pivoting away from. I know he does

1253
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 4: have kind of this, you know, as any tight end does.

1254
00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:13,360
Speaker 2: I guess has a pretty wide range of outcomes.

1255
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:17,240
Speaker 4: He could conceivably have a zero catch game even healthy,

1256
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:20,520
Speaker 4: even with Doyle out, Moley Cox or whoever else is

1257
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:22,439
Speaker 4: the second tight end could end up having the big game.

1258
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:24,319
Speaker 2: That's not out of the question. I think it was.

1259
00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:28,319
Speaker 4: They've had seventeen different PPR games of at least eight

1260
00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:31,040
Speaker 4: points this year, and like five of them have not

1261
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:34,200
Speaker 4: even been from Doyle or Ebron. So like, this is

1262
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:36,680
Speaker 4: a team that you know, Luck does know how to

1263
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 4: get the ball to the tight end.

1264
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:38,319
Speaker 2: He does it well.

1265
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:41,360
Speaker 4: But for that exact same reason, when you have a

1266
00:56:41,360 --> 00:56:44,840
Speaker 4: guy like Ebron priced where he is which is cheap

1267
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:46,759
Speaker 4: because tight ends are generally cheap. I mean, he's fifty

1268
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:50,759
Speaker 4: six on Sandlu forty two on DraftKings. The upside is

1269
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:53,480
Speaker 4: just too high. I think to pass that up or

1270
00:56:53,520 --> 00:56:57,319
Speaker 4: to try to save a couple of hours and throw

1271
00:56:57,400 --> 00:57:01,240
Speaker 4: somebody else in there, when Ebron's probably the best ceiling

1272
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:05,239
Speaker 4: play as well, you know, outside of Travis Kelsey, but

1273
00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:08,120
Speaker 4: especially when you take into account the salaries that you're

1274
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:12,400
Speaker 4: paying for a Kittle or a Kelsey versus Ebron, you know,

1275
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:14,719
Speaker 4: further down there. I think he's a guy that you

1276
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:17,320
Speaker 4: just want to get in if you can.

1277
00:57:17,880 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 1: I do agree with him. One thing that is interesting,

1278
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:23,560
Speaker 1: of notes, So on the Wednesday podcast, one of the

1279
00:57:23,640 --> 00:57:28,280
Speaker 1: props that Sean Corner offered was Eric Ebron's ownership percentage,

1280
00:57:28,360 --> 00:57:31,320
Speaker 1: and thirty was the line that he set. So I

1281
00:57:31,360 --> 00:57:34,240
Speaker 1: took the under on that. CSU Ram took the under

1282
00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:36,920
Speaker 1: on that. I would be curious to know what your

1283
00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:41,000
Speaker 1: thoughts are. Obviously, I don't want to give away in

1284
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:44,920
Speaker 1: the models where Adam Levitan is leaning on his owners

1285
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 1: personage projection, but what are your thoughts about about thirty

1286
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:51,080
Speaker 1: as the line the Corner set I.

1287
00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:54,040
Speaker 4: Know, of course, being Sean It's a good line I

1288
00:57:54,080 --> 00:57:56,680
Speaker 4: would probably go over because I think what you tend

1289
00:57:56,680 --> 00:58:00,680
Speaker 4: to see in these tournaments is when there is a

1290
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:03,960
Speaker 4: kind of a chalk tight end, ownership does flock to them.

1291
00:58:04,040 --> 00:58:05,360
Speaker 2: And the thing.

1292
00:58:05,200 --> 00:58:07,200
Speaker 4: About it is, though you've been able to if you

1293
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:10,520
Speaker 4: look at the winning Milli lineups and whatnot, and you know,

1294
00:58:10,560 --> 00:58:12,880
Speaker 4: you listen to the Monday Pod where me and Ian

1295
00:58:12,920 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 4: break it down, a lot of times, you get away

1296
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:17,280
Speaker 4: with that chalk tight end even if he doesn't completely

1297
00:58:17,320 --> 00:58:21,000
Speaker 4: smash because it's just so hard to kind of number one,

1298
00:58:21,160 --> 00:58:23,640
Speaker 4: like be perfect about the tight end and still like

1299
00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:25,680
Speaker 4: nail the other eight picks in your lineup. And since

1300
00:58:25,680 --> 00:58:27,720
Speaker 4: the tight end is like the cheapest like them are,

1301
00:58:27,760 --> 00:58:29,720
Speaker 4: the defense is usually where you can get away with

1302
00:58:29,800 --> 00:58:33,400
Speaker 4: not being as perfect. You usually want to nail those seven, like,

1303
00:58:33,440 --> 00:58:35,760
Speaker 4: you know, the quarterback, the running backs, and the wide receivers.

1304
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 2: So I'm fine with Ebron either way.

1305
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:41,120
Speaker 4: I think there's definitely some pivot opportunities if you're talking

1306
00:58:41,120 --> 00:58:43,960
Speaker 4: about tournaments. I mean, you have David Nijoku in that spot,

1307
00:58:44,320 --> 00:58:46,480
Speaker 4: like I mentioned against Houston, they've been giving up production

1308
00:58:46,520 --> 00:58:47,320
Speaker 4: all year to tight end.

1309
00:58:47,400 --> 00:58:48,800
Speaker 2: You still have Cameron Bray going.

1310
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:52,440
Speaker 4: Against Carolina, who's also been extremely vulnerable to the tight

1311
00:58:52,480 --> 00:58:54,640
Speaker 4: end position and that, and there's there's more where that

1312
00:58:54,680 --> 00:58:55,080
Speaker 4: came from.

1313
00:58:55,120 --> 00:58:58,320
Speaker 2: So there's definitely options. But I don't mind the high

1314
00:58:58,400 --> 00:58:59,880
Speaker 2: ownership for youbron Here.

1315
00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 1: All right, we are going to close out the show

1316
00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:05,240
Speaker 1: with our fourth and Goal segment previewing Sunday Night Football.

1317
00:59:05,320 --> 00:59:07,480
Speaker 1: At first, let's kick it to Ian Hardtz, who runs

1318
00:59:07,520 --> 00:59:12,400
Speaker 1: through the key Week thirteen coverage situations.

1319
00:59:12,680 --> 00:59:17,480
Speaker 5: The press, the jam, and the five yard bump. Ian

1320
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:23,800
Speaker 5: Harden springs you dance of the divas.

1321
00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:27,000
Speaker 8: There are ten key shadow matchups between wide receivers and

1322
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 8: cornerbacks for Week thirteen. Mike Evans and Shawn Jackson will

1323
00:59:30,160 --> 00:59:33,000
Speaker 8: face off with James Bradberry and Dante Jackson for the Panthers.

1324
00:59:33,240 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 8: Bradberry six foot one, two hundred and ten pounds and

1325
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:38,080
Speaker 8: locked up Evans in their first matchup, and Dante Jackson

1326
00:59:38,080 --> 00:59:40,680
Speaker 8: has legit four to three speed to hang with d Jacks.

1327
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:42,720
Speaker 8: T Y Hold and Jalen Ramsy will face off for

1328
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:45,360
Speaker 8: the fourth time since the beginning of last season. Ramsey's

1329
00:59:45,360 --> 00:59:47,480
Speaker 8: basically won their first three battles, but he's dealing with

1330
00:59:47,600 --> 00:59:50,160
Speaker 8: knee injury. Tyler Boyd and Chris Harris will see plenty

1331
00:59:50,160 --> 00:59:52,680
Speaker 8: of each other in the Bengals and Broncos matchup. Aj

1332
00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:55,560
Speaker 8: Green's potential will turn from a tow injury could impact

1333
00:59:55,560 --> 00:59:57,560
Speaker 8: this a little bit, but either way, both Boyd and

1334
00:59:57,560 --> 00:59:59,720
Speaker 8: Harris spend most of their time in the slot. DeAndre

1335
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 8: hop and Denzel Wards should see plenty of each other

1336
01:00:02,160 --> 01:00:04,200
Speaker 8: in the Texans versus Browns. The Brown's that mixed up

1337
01:00:04,200 --> 01:00:07,080
Speaker 8: their number one wide receiver coaches this season, and Mohawkins

1338
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:09,360
Speaker 8: win any matchup. I just worried about his upside in

1339
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 8: the Texans new local run first offense. Brandon Cooks should

1340
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:14,960
Speaker 8: see plenty of Darius Slay in the Lions Rams game.

1341
01:00:15,200 --> 01:00:17,680
Speaker 8: Slay's legit four to three forty guy capable of hanging

1342
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:21,120
Speaker 8: with Cooks, But indoor Brandon Cooks has averaged more receptions,

1343
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:24,240
Speaker 8: yards and touchdowns compared to outdoor. DeVante Adams should be

1344
01:00:24,240 --> 01:00:26,880
Speaker 8: shadowed by Patrick Peterson on the outside, but Adam should

1345
01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 8: be able to escape in the slot. Plenty of reps

1346
01:00:29,120 --> 01:00:31,320
Speaker 8: and I mean he scored a touchdown and orgain one

1347
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:33,760
Speaker 8: hundred and plus yards in twenty five of thirty four

1348
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:36,680
Speaker 8: games with Aaron Rodgerson in twenty sixteen. Josh Gordon will

1349
01:00:36,680 --> 01:00:39,440
Speaker 8: see Xavier Roods on the outside if Roseen suit up

1350
01:00:39,440 --> 01:00:41,680
Speaker 8: through his hamstring injury. I like Rose to win the

1351
01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:45,160
Speaker 8: matchup if he's healthy. Considering Gordon joins Calvin Benjamin, Alan Robinson,

1352
01:00:45,200 --> 01:00:47,360
Speaker 8: it's the only receivers averaging feard in two yards of

1353
01:00:47,400 --> 01:00:50,320
Speaker 8: separation for target. Stephan Diggs will face off is Stefan

1354
01:00:50,400 --> 01:00:52,760
Speaker 8: Gilmour if he's able to suit up. Diggs dealing with

1355
01:00:52,760 --> 01:00:56,160
Speaker 8: the knee injury. Adam Dealin's position better from the inside anyway.

1356
01:00:56,440 --> 01:00:59,360
Speaker 8: Antonio Brown should see plenty of Casey Hayward, who's had

1357
01:00:59,360 --> 01:01:01,880
Speaker 8: a pretty easy slate of a shadow matchups this season,

1358
01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:04,000
Speaker 8: but ab will be his toughest by far and has

1359
01:01:04,040 --> 01:01:06,920
Speaker 8: eleven touchdowns in eleven games. My favorite matchup of a

1360
01:01:06,960 --> 01:01:10,080
Speaker 8: week is Emmanuel Sanders versus the Bengals. Bengals had the

1361
01:01:10,120 --> 01:01:12,320
Speaker 8: league's worst scoring defense, and I've been torn up by

1362
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:15,680
Speaker 8: slow receivers all season, including Jesus Smith, Schuster, Mohammed Sanu

1363
01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:18,440
Speaker 8: and t Y Hilton. I like Emmanuel Sanders to have

1364
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:20,880
Speaker 8: play a success from the slot, and now that he's

1365
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:24,160
Speaker 8: got sudden field stretching form on the outside, more goodness

1366
01:01:24,160 --> 01:01:25,840
Speaker 8: should be available in the future.

1367
01:01:26,120 --> 01:01:27,959
Speaker 1: That was Ian. Be sure to check out his wide

1368
01:01:28,000 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 1: receiver quarterback matchup call um each week at the Action Network.

1369
01:01:32,240 --> 01:01:36,240
Speaker 1: Oh Chris Sunday Night Football Chargers at Steelers. Steelers favored

1370
01:01:36,240 --> 01:01:38,840
Speaker 1: by three a fifty one point five over under. This

1371
01:01:38,920 --> 01:01:43,360
Speaker 1: game was flexed into primetime bank the Fantasy Gods. Chargers

1372
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:46,760
Speaker 1: have won seven of eight, the Steelers have won six

1373
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:49,680
Speaker 1: of seven. Amazingly, both teams have lost to the Broncos

1374
01:01:49,680 --> 01:01:51,680
Speaker 1: in the past two weeks. What are your thoughts on

1375
01:01:51,720 --> 01:01:52,120
Speaker 1: this game?

1376
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:55,280
Speaker 4: I mean, first vance Joseph has definitely turned it around.

1377
01:01:55,280 --> 01:01:57,280
Speaker 4: I think he also covered against the Chiefs, so he's

1378
01:01:57,320 --> 01:02:00,120
Speaker 4: covered against all of the best teams in the league.

1379
01:02:00,400 --> 01:02:03,600
Speaker 2: So shouts defense Joseph. But as far as this.

1380
01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:06,800
Speaker 4: Game, you know, I think the line is pretty fair,

1381
01:02:07,240 --> 01:02:09,920
Speaker 4: the total is pretty fair. This is one where I

1382
01:02:09,920 --> 01:02:12,480
Speaker 4: think it's going to come down to It's Pittsburgh's back

1383
01:02:12,480 --> 01:02:14,080
Speaker 4: at home, and we know they always kind of have

1384
01:02:14,160 --> 01:02:17,240
Speaker 4: their their meltdowns and their wet down games on the road,

1385
01:02:17,280 --> 01:02:19,120
Speaker 4: so I expect them to come out and play well

1386
01:02:19,680 --> 01:02:22,280
Speaker 4: in this game. I think that the Chargers pose a

1387
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:25,800
Speaker 4: formidable foe in terms of their defense. I think their

1388
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:28,640
Speaker 4: defense is pretty solid. But at the end of the day,

1389
01:02:28,760 --> 01:02:30,840
Speaker 4: Big Ben is getting the ball out faster than any

1390
01:02:30,880 --> 01:02:33,400
Speaker 4: quarterback in the league this season two point three seven

1391
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:37,680
Speaker 4: seconds to attempt per Pro Football Focus. And so I

1392
01:02:37,680 --> 01:02:40,920
Speaker 4: think that whatever kind of you know, pass rush situations,

1393
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:44,080
Speaker 4: the Chargers can kind of throw at them or even

1394
01:02:44,160 --> 01:02:45,960
Speaker 4: on the back because the Chargers also have some good

1395
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:48,480
Speaker 4: corners they can cover pretty well. But you know, Ben

1396
01:02:48,600 --> 01:02:50,720
Speaker 4: Roethlisberger has some pretty good receivers and when you talk

1397
01:02:50,720 --> 01:02:54,000
Speaker 4: about Juju and of course Antonio Brown. So I am

1398
01:02:54,280 --> 01:02:57,600
Speaker 4: weaning Pittsburgh minus three here, but I think this is

1399
01:02:57,640 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 4: a pretty good line. But I'll bet on the the

1400
01:03:00,400 --> 01:03:02,440
Speaker 4: home team when they're a team like the Steers who

1401
01:03:02,480 --> 01:03:03,880
Speaker 4: tends to show up best down.

1402
01:03:04,120 --> 01:03:05,680
Speaker 1: I'm with you there. If I were going to take

1403
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:08,080
Speaker 1: a side, I would do pit even though they're you know,

1404
01:03:08,080 --> 01:03:11,720
Speaker 1: they're laying the three points on the staff favorites piece

1405
01:03:11,760 --> 01:03:13,960
Speaker 1: it's going to be coming out on Friday. The one

1406
01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:16,720
Speaker 1: that I picked is uh and I'm probably on the

1407
01:03:16,720 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 1: wrong side of this, but whatever, I don't care. I'm

1408
01:03:19,120 --> 01:03:21,640
Speaker 1: going with the over fifty one and a half and

1409
01:03:21,840 --> 01:03:24,439
Speaker 1: a lot of it is just based on the fact

1410
01:03:24,480 --> 01:03:27,000
Speaker 1: that the Steelers are at home and the you know,

1411
01:03:27,040 --> 01:03:30,120
Speaker 1: like Antonio Brown is an all Pro era, so like

1412
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:33,360
Speaker 1: since twenty fourteen, since they've kind of had this this

1413
01:03:33,560 --> 01:03:38,360
Speaker 1: version of the offense, they have really outperformed at home.

1414
01:03:38,400 --> 01:03:41,720
Speaker 1: Everyone knows that, but it's it's really made their overs

1415
01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:45,080
Speaker 1: kind of like one of the like lock bets of

1416
01:03:45,160 --> 01:03:49,080
Speaker 1: like the past half decade. They are in just sort

1417
01:03:49,120 --> 01:03:53,680
Speaker 1: of basic situations at home. Roethlisberger is starting, they are

1418
01:03:53,720 --> 01:03:56,120
Speaker 1: twenty one and ten in terms of hitting the over.

1419
01:03:56,520 --> 01:03:59,640
Speaker 1: When you take that outside of division, so that they're

1420
01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:03,200
Speaker 1: playing someone who isn't really comfortable with them or familiar

1421
01:04:03,240 --> 01:04:06,520
Speaker 1: with them, they are fifteen and six. That's a thirty

1422
01:04:06,520 --> 01:04:09,480
Speaker 1: eight point five percent ROI if you're looking at the

1423
01:04:09,600 --> 01:04:12,120
Speaker 1: bet Labs tools. So it's not to say that that

1424
01:04:12,240 --> 01:04:14,440
Speaker 1: is something that you just sort of lock in. But

1425
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:17,600
Speaker 1: I think that this is a situation where the Steelers

1426
01:04:17,720 --> 01:04:20,720
Speaker 1: are highly motivated. Right they have a shot at the

1427
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:24,680
Speaker 1: number two seed. They just got embarrassed last week. They

1428
01:04:24,720 --> 01:04:28,560
Speaker 1: need to regroup. You have the Chargers, who are in

1429
01:04:28,600 --> 01:04:32,080
Speaker 1: a similar situation, really looking to make the push to

1430
01:04:32,120 --> 01:04:35,640
Speaker 1: make the playoffs. Both teams looking to score points. I

1431
01:04:35,680 --> 01:04:37,680
Speaker 1: think this will be a game that I mean I

1432
01:04:37,680 --> 01:04:40,000
Speaker 1: don't want to say like its sores pass the over,

1433
01:04:40,400 --> 01:04:44,200
Speaker 1: but like I don't know, like I feel decently confident

1434
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:45,479
Speaker 1: in this game going over.

1435
01:04:46,280 --> 01:04:48,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's definitely fair. I mean, these teams absolutely can

1436
01:04:49,000 --> 01:04:51,920
Speaker 4: put up points. How much do you downgrade the Charger

1437
01:04:52,080 --> 01:04:54,320
Speaker 4: Run game if Melvin Gordon is out, which looks like

1438
01:04:54,360 --> 01:04:55,200
Speaker 4: he is going to.

1439
01:04:55,200 --> 01:04:58,320
Speaker 1: Be, that's always kind of hard. Here's the question. Do

1440
01:04:58,320 --> 01:05:01,120
Speaker 1: you mean downgrade in terms of like their point potential?

1441
01:05:02,240 --> 01:05:04,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, to an extent, because you know, running, like I said,

1442
01:05:04,880 --> 01:05:07,400
Speaker 4: you know, running is it does kind of you know,

1443
01:05:07,440 --> 01:05:09,720
Speaker 4: all things being equal, if you have two efficient running teams.

1444
01:05:09,720 --> 01:05:11,520
Speaker 4: I think people kind of think of like running teams

1445
01:05:11,560 --> 01:05:14,840
Speaker 4: as slowing the game down and thus making games score

1446
01:05:15,000 --> 01:05:17,080
Speaker 4: fewer points. But in reality, what tends to happen is

1447
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:19,920
Speaker 4: if you can run well, you stay ahead of the chains,

1448
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:22,760
Speaker 4: you convert more third downs, you get further down the field,

1449
01:05:23,000 --> 01:05:25,400
Speaker 4: you score more points. So I mean, I don't think

1450
01:05:25,440 --> 01:05:27,040
Speaker 4: there's a huge drop off. I was just curious if

1451
01:05:27,080 --> 01:05:29,160
Speaker 4: you if you happen to think there might be, because I mean,

1452
01:05:29,200 --> 01:05:30,400
Speaker 4: you know, Gordon was playing out.

1453
01:05:30,280 --> 01:05:30,680
Speaker 2: Of his mind.

1454
01:05:30,760 --> 01:05:33,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, Gordon's played really well this year. I don't know,

1455
01:05:33,680 --> 01:05:36,840
Speaker 1: I have a lot of respect for Eckler, So I

1456
01:05:36,880 --> 01:05:39,000
Speaker 1: don't think it's actually that big of a drop off.

1457
01:05:39,160 --> 01:05:41,560
Speaker 1: Like I think the drop off would be big over

1458
01:05:41,600 --> 01:05:43,760
Speaker 1: the course of a season, you know what I mean. Like,

1459
01:05:43,800 --> 01:05:45,560
Speaker 1: I think that would be pretty big because you would

1460
01:05:45,560 --> 01:05:48,960
Speaker 1: start to see Eckler wear down. But Eckler combined with

1461
01:05:49,360 --> 01:05:52,840
Speaker 1: Justin Jackson, who has like the fresh rookie legs, Like

1462
01:05:52,880 --> 01:05:55,080
Speaker 1: they haven't used him at all to this point in

1463
01:05:55,120 --> 01:05:58,120
Speaker 1: the season, you know, except for last game, right, So

1464
01:05:58,160 --> 01:06:01,200
Speaker 1: it's like a situation where he's coming and he's a

1465
01:06:01,360 --> 01:06:04,960
Speaker 1: very good receiving back too, So I think there's the

1466
01:06:05,480 --> 01:06:09,520
Speaker 1: possibility that the offense won't be much worse, you know,

1467
01:06:09,680 --> 01:06:13,560
Speaker 1: without Melvin Gordon. So I think it's a pretty decent

1468
01:06:13,600 --> 01:06:17,280
Speaker 1: situation there. Chris, Okay, the show has gone long. You're

1469
01:06:17,280 --> 01:06:18,960
Speaker 1: going to break down the Monday night came with in

1470
01:06:19,200 --> 01:06:21,760
Speaker 1: on our next show. Do you have any final words?

1471
01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:23,760
Speaker 2: Let's get this money all right?

1472
01:06:23,800 --> 01:06:25,680
Speaker 1: That is going to do it? For the Friday episode

1473
01:06:25,720 --> 01:06:28,680
Speaker 1: of the Action Network NFL podcast. Be sure to rate, review,

1474
01:06:28,680 --> 01:06:31,760
Speaker 1: and subscribe for all of our upcoming episodes. For Chris Raybond,

1475
01:06:31,840 --> 01:06:34,120
Speaker 1: I Am Matthew Friedman, matte f The Oracle so you

1476
01:06:34,120 --> 01:06:40,240
Speaker 1: get next episode