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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: That action All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing you so spect we're sitting. It's a cash touch till.

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Speaker 2: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to winning.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine. If you want

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Speaker 1: to back, and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 2: am your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined by

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Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson for some best bets for NFL Week twelve.

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Speaker 2: We will get to those bets shortly, but first, as always,

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Speaker 2: I've got my little appetizer here, two little fun talking

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Speaker 2: points before we get to Brandon and obviously he will

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Speaker 2: have an opinion, as our producer David Payne said on

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Speaker 2: one of them are most likely both of them. But

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Speaker 2: let's continue. So we have three double digit favorites this week,

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Speaker 2: kind of a topic of conversation and handicapping those big favorites.

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Speaker 2: So double digit favorites are twelve and one straight up

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Speaker 2: and eight and five against the spread so far this season.

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Speaker 2: This week that is the Ravens, the Seahawks, and the Lions.

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Speaker 2: The note really is the fact that double digit favorites

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Speaker 2: are fifty four and eight straight up, thirty five, twenty

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Speaker 2: six and one against the spread over the last three seasons,

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Speaker 2: fifty seven percent against the spread above five hundred all

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Speaker 2: three years so far. This is the third season. This

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Speaker 2: would be the first time we've seen double digit favorites

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Speaker 2: above five hundred against the spread three years in a

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Speaker 2: row in the Super Bowl era, never happen. So basically,

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Speaker 2: you get a year up, most likely get a year back.

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Speaker 2: Right now, third consecutive year we have seen double digit

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Speaker 2: favorites have some success, so three more this week. We

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Speaker 2: will see what happens the other note there, and then

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Speaker 2: I'll let Brandon kind of talk this through. We use

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Speaker 2: this on the favorites earlier today, but just kind of

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Speaker 2: fun fodder. So last week the Chiefs had a historic

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Speaker 2: line versus the eight and two Broncos and lost. This

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Speaker 2: week a little bit different. So Chiefs are the fifteenth

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Speaker 2: team since nineteen ninety to be five and five straight

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Speaker 2: up or worse and be favored versus a team with

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Speaker 2: an eighty plus win percentage this late in the season.

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Speaker 2: Those previous fourteen teams, of course fourteen and oh straight

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Speaker 2: up twelve h to two against the spread, which would

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Speaker 2: be the Chiefs this week. Obviously in a must win spot,

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Speaker 2: you would think at five and five, trying to sneak

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Speaker 2: their way in the playoffs. Brandon Anderson BA talk to me,

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Speaker 2: what's up.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know this point of the season when a

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Speaker 3: lot of times when a line looks off compared to

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Speaker 3: the records, off what you think it should be. It's

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Speaker 3: usually the books telling us what we think we know

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Speaker 3: about the teams, and so you often should listen to

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Speaker 3: what that line is telling you.

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Speaker 1: In this case the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: We'll talk about that game in a while. I really

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Speaker 3: was close to picking Chiefs on that one. One specific

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Speaker 3: reason held me back there, so we'll get back to that.

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Speaker 3: I add a statue on the big favorites, so I

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Speaker 3: don't really know. This isn't a huge sample. I guess

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Speaker 3: it's about eighty games or so, but over the last decade,

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Speaker 3: in just weeks eleven through fifteen, so we're right in

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Speaker 3: the middle of this stretch where if you think of that,

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Speaker 3: we're not quite to the end of the year when

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Speaker 3: you might be like resting or don't have something to

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Speaker 3: play for, but we know who you are at this

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Speaker 3: point in just those weeks favorites of more than ten

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Speaker 3: points forty five and thirty six against the spread. So

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Speaker 3: it's not a huge margin, but fifty five point six percent,

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Speaker 3: it's about ten percent ROI if you're just betting those

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Speaker 3: favorites every time. So it is kind of right in

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Speaker 3: this spot of the schedule where all right, we know

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Speaker 3: the Lions are good, we know the Seahawks are good, right, like,

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Speaker 3: just just be backing these teams that take care of

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Speaker 3: business and.

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Speaker 1: Uh, yeah, we'll get to all of those three games

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Speaker 1: you mentioned.

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Speaker 3: One of those, I am indeed backing the favorite and

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Speaker 3: playing the escalator. Another one I'm taking the underdog. So

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Speaker 3: we've been riding the underdogs. See when we get there.

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Speaker 3: It's certainly going against the trends that we just talked

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Speaker 3: about that favorites are rolling here. We'll see if they

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Speaker 3: keep rolling this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like an old school handicapping methodology. Like if

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Speaker 2: you've been doing this for a long time, you've always

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Speaker 2: said to yourself, let's go with the double digit underdog,

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Speaker 2: and you kind of always told yourself it was like

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Speaker 2: the blind thing to do. It hasn't been lately, and

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Speaker 2: that's just because favorites are covering at a ridiculous rate,

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Speaker 2: and no matter what it is, the better team wins,

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Speaker 2: the better team covers, the better quarterback covers. Like it's

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Speaker 2: kind of just been what we've seen lately, So interesting enough,

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Speaker 2: we will see what happens this weekend with three really

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Speaker 2: bad teams getting a lot of points. All right, So

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Speaker 2: it is time to get to the best bets, the

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Speaker 2: main course. If you want to tail some of these bets,

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Speaker 2: look for the quick slip link in the podcast and

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Speaker 2: video description, or go to actionework dot com slash bet. Now,

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Speaker 2: all right, Brandon, we're gonna start with the pick six.

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Speaker 2: I don't know you remind me? Is this this is

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Speaker 2: week five? Six? I feel like you're two and four,

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Speaker 2: three and three. You've hit a few of these, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we've done five so far.

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Speaker 3: We hit the first one and then I got a

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Speaker 3: little aggressive on the underdogs and we went on l three,

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Speaker 3: but then we hit last week. I believe we're at

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Speaker 3: like two hundred and fifty percent ROI right now, because

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Speaker 3: you know, we're we're throwing six money lines together, so

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Speaker 3: we'll be in the good even if we missed the

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Speaker 3: rest of the season. But we're gonna keep firing. We

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Speaker 3: got six picks to make. So this week starting with

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Speaker 3: two big favorites that we just talked about, the lines

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Speaker 3: and the Seahawks locked and loaded on those two, and

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Speaker 3: then ending with two primetime favorites the Rams Sunday Night,

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Speaker 3: the Niners on Monday night, but right in the middle.

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Speaker 3: We're getting aggressive again this week, and this is kind

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Speaker 3: of the pick six this week is a pretty good

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Speaker 3: preview of the show. To come, give me the Bengals

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Speaker 3: on the money line, the big money line, and give

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Speaker 3: me the Cardinals all those six together. Look, it was

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Speaker 3: about twenty one to one when I took it. The

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Speaker 3: Borough news and the Bengals news has been all over

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Speaker 3: the place, so I don't quite know exactly what the

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Speaker 3: line is at this moment, but we're gonna get into

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Speaker 3: really most of those games on our show today. So Lions, Seahawks, Rams,

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Speaker 3: Niners are the big favorites, Cardinals, Bengals gotta win, not

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Speaker 3: just to cover. Get them all together something like twenty

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Speaker 3: to one, and we'll even gonna get our biggest pick

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Speaker 3: six of the season.

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Speaker 2: This is your best, guy, We're just gonna get into

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Speaker 2: it right now because you gave away our first pick here.

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Speaker 2: As we're getting into Bengals and Patriots, you're putting the

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Speaker 2: Bengals in your pick six on the money line, So

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Speaker 2: I wonder what you're doing in that game. My only

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Speaker 2: question is, so I looked in the rundown when I

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Speaker 2: started putting some notes together figuring out some bets. I

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Speaker 2: like myself. I saw Bengals minus six and a half

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Speaker 2: versus Patriots, and I asked myself, I wonder if that's

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Speaker 2: an you know, is that a problem. Is that something

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Speaker 2: on purpose? So you tell me, are we laying six

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Speaker 2: and a half?

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Speaker 3: No, that was a typo, but you know me, like,

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Speaker 3: you're right to just not assume typo like that?

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Speaker 1: Would it? Now?

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Speaker 3: I'm like, shoot, man, maybe I didn't go far enough.

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Speaker 3: Maybe Bengals mine six and a half. Let's really get

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Speaker 3: aggressive here. So yeah, Bengals to cover the six and

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Speaker 3: a half. Plus six and a half. There, Bengals on

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Speaker 3: the money line, it's plus two point fifty. Avan, you

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Speaker 3: and I are rocking both Bengals shirts today on the

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Speaker 3: video if you're watching. So this is a Team Bengals podcast,

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Speaker 3: and this was the hot read. So you already heard

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Speaker 3: me talk about this matchup a little bit ready to

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Speaker 3: read it in the hot read in the.

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Speaker 1: Pick six start here. We took a plus.

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Speaker 3: Seven on the hot read, and within twenty four hours

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Speaker 3: I wasn't loving yet, not the pick necessarily, but I

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Speaker 3: wasn't loving that the line moved the other way because

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Speaker 3: I didn't think Jamar Chase was gonna get suspended for spitgate,

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Speaker 3: but he did. Jamar Chase is out for this game,

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Speaker 3: so the line starts bumping up, got as high as

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Speaker 3: in the nine range. Then later in the week, as

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Speaker 3: the drama continues, Joe Burrow starts practicing full practice. As

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Speaker 3: Flacco is limited in practice, Burrow's taking the snaps with

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Speaker 3: the starting center. It sure looks right now like Burrow

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Speaker 3: may actually play in this game, and certainly books seem

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Speaker 3: to think so, because now the line is back down

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Speaker 3: to six and a half even six points. So turns

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Speaker 3: out a hot read was right all along. We're on

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Speaker 3: the right side of the CLB. But I still like

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Speaker 3: Bengals here. Obviously, losing Chase not great, Burrow in definitely

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Speaker 3: good in a bigger gain, I think overall that's at

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Speaker 3: least a couple points in Cincinnati's favor. And frankly, I

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Speaker 3: think this one of the worst lines of the season

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Speaker 3: wherever it lands in that range, because I have a

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Speaker 3: closer like I have a Patriots under a field goal

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Speaker 3: if Burrow is in, So I'm still gonna like this here. Look,

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Speaker 3: we know how bad the Bengals defense says by DVA

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Speaker 3: and we know how I love DVA. Through ten games,

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Speaker 3: this is the worst measured defense in history by DVOA.

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Speaker 3: Now that's not great. However, defense is not sticky, and

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Speaker 3: you can really only get better than the worst in history,

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Speaker 3: so they can only go up from there. And the

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Speaker 3: Patriots are twenty ninth defensively by DVA despite the record

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Speaker 3: being so good, and they're bottom five against the pass.

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Speaker 3: Milton Williams is out, they got a bunch of injuries

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Speaker 3: on the front seven. And then if you look at

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Speaker 3: the matchup, what's made the Patriots so good this year?

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Speaker 3: It's Drake May, right, That's why he's the MVP CO favorite. Basically,

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Speaker 3: that's the one big advantage is Drake May in the

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Speaker 3: passing game. Okay, well, what if Joe Burrow is back,

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Speaker 3: because you're one biggot just got negated by a quarterback

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Speaker 3: that we all know is at least as good as

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Speaker 3: Drake May. And despite all the Gatti production on a

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Speaker 3: nine to two record, Patriots are tenth offensively. They can't

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Speaker 3: run the ball, so they can't hurt this really bad

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Speaker 3: run dye. The Bengals by DBA are third offensively the

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Speaker 3: last six games of the season. They have been a

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Speaker 3: red hot and this team at home is something else.

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Speaker 3: Entirely on the road, they've been a bottom five offense

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Speaker 3: at home top five. This from Anthony dbund Our old Colleague.

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Speaker 3: Last twelve games at home for Cincinnati, thirty six point

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Speaker 3: eight points a game. They've scored thirty or more all

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Speaker 3: but one of those. So if you want to avoid

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Speaker 3: the Patriots side and just go team total Escalator Bengals,

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Speaker 3: I don't blame you there, but I'm gonna like this

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Speaker 3: with Burrow, and just so you're hearing it, I'm gonna.

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Speaker 1: Like it with Flacco.

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Speaker 3: Also, Flaco three home Bengals games this season, they scored

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Speaker 3: thirty three, thirty eight, and forty two. So he's doing

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Speaker 3: just fine his home games. Flaco, he had to win

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Speaker 3: the season against the Steelers. With the Bengals, he had

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Speaker 3: to win against the Packers. We know that earlier in

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Speaker 3: the season. And then he had two one point losses

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Speaker 3: and a game where he would have won by one

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Speaker 3: but they lost in the final minute. That's been his

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Speaker 3: home game. So to me, zoom out.

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Speaker 1: We just have a shootout here, shootout the OK Corral.

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Speaker 3: And I get the better offense. The Bengals have the

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Speaker 3: better weapons, and now if Burrow's playing the better quarterback too,

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Speaker 3: so give me the six and a half or the

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Speaker 3: six whatever best line you can get. Obviously, give me

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Speaker 3: the plus two to fifty money line. I'll say this

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Speaker 3: probably at this point you may wait and find out

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Speaker 3: who's actually playing quarterback, because if it's Burrow, you're gonna

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Speaker 3: lose a little bit more on the line, but you're

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Speaker 3: gonna know what's Burrow and you're gonna want the pick.

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Speaker 3: If it's not Burrow and it goes back to Flaco,

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Speaker 3: I do think it gets to seven or passed again,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna get a better line out of it. So

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Speaker 3: I think go ahead and wait. But for the podcast today,

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Speaker 3: as we're as we're live now, that's the pick. And

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Speaker 3: I still like the division odds as well at forty

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Speaker 3: to one up next Ravens on Thanksgiving, then Bills and

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Speaker 3: the Ravens. It's not going to be easy, but those

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Speaker 3: are winnable games. If the offense hits on all cylinders,

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Speaker 3: obviously Jamar Chase will be back. Then I'm team Bengals.

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Speaker 3: I'm giving him one more shot here. It's the home

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Speaker 3: desperation spot, and I've got some props here. But I've

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Speaker 3: been talking a lot about Bengals. We're team Bengals today.

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Speaker 3: What do you think about this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, mini sidebar questions. So the line is six six

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Speaker 2: and a half right now. Obviously we don't know if

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Speaker 2: Burrow's going to start. Let's just play hypothetical for a second.

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Speaker 2: Say Burrow would have started off the by like last week,

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Speaker 2: and we would have been super confused and been like,

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Speaker 2: oh my god, I can't believe it. But he started,

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Speaker 2: he played. Okay, what would the line have been this

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Speaker 2: week on open knowing Burrow was going to play?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that the line that we're looking at

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Speaker 3: right now is largely assuming Burrow. Like, I think it's

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Speaker 3: possible we hit like five five and a half if

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Speaker 3: he plays, but that's kind of in the death zone,

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Speaker 3: and I can't see this getting down to like four

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Speaker 3: or something like that. So I think somewhere like minus

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Speaker 3: six open seems about right to me for Patriots of

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Speaker 3: what I would have expected in that spot.

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Speaker 2: Fantastic. Okay, So given that scenario, I think you just

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Speaker 2: like I just I would have expected maybe a lower line,

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Speaker 2: maybe four four and a half. But I guess I'm

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Speaker 2: looking at you know the public liking of Burrow in

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Speaker 2: a sense that the Patriots have been really unbelievable, like

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Speaker 2: even though they've been beating up on kind of inferior opponents,

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Speaker 2: and this is again an inferior opponent with a terrible

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Speaker 2: defense like the Borough. Respect might have gotten a few points,

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Speaker 2: but we'll see what happens as the league goes on,

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Speaker 2: as the week goes on. I'll say this as well,

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Speaker 2: as though Burrow has closed as an underdog of three

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Speaker 2: points or more twenty times in his career, he's seventeen

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Speaker 2: and three ats as a dog of three or more,

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Speaker 2: which is pretty crazy. We've heard this a bunch of times,

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Speaker 2: so that's one other angle. I would say Patriots have

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Speaker 2: won eight straight teams of one eighth straight, pretty bad,

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Speaker 2: thirty nine percent against the spread, eleven and twenty since

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty. Usually, as everyone understands, market goes one way,

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Speaker 2: line gets inflated. This is a little bit of a

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Speaker 2: different situation since you have basically a top three star

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Speaker 2: quarterback coming back on the other side. So a line's

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Speaker 2: playing a little funny. But what other props do you

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Speaker 2: like here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so funny.

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Speaker 3: I was literally just pulling up bet Labs as you

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Speaker 3: gave that stat out going. Wait a minute, we might

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Speaker 3: get Joe Burrow as an underdog too. That's like an

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Speaker 3: auto bet for me usually, especially if it's more than three.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, on that I think probably, Yeah, the line

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Speaker 3: probably wouldn't have started at minus six if we knew

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Speaker 3: Burrow is in because I think they're taking money immediately

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Speaker 3: on Cincinnati on that spot. So maybe it's a touch below,

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Speaker 3: but yeah, we get that spot as well. Winning record

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Speaker 3: outright for Burrow as a three plus underdog for his career,

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Speaker 3: so we love that. I'm looking at props here for

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Speaker 3: two guys and it's really the two obvious guys because

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Speaker 3: Jamar Chase is out, So give me the other Chase

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Speaker 3: Chase Brown receiving, not rushing, give me T Higgins.

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Speaker 1: I'll start with T Higgins.

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Speaker 3: He's the guy obviously with no Jamar Chase, and at

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Speaker 3: first you might think, well, that's not great. I'd rather

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Speaker 3: have him be getting the second coverage. But the Patriots

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Speaker 3: on the season are dead last DVA against wide receiver

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Speaker 3: one that has been their worst spot covering. They're averaging

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Speaker 3: against I'm gonna call seven guys they face this year.

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Speaker 3: Kind of a true wide receiver one Five of the

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Speaker 3: seven had at least six catches and ninety seven yards

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Speaker 3: average six for ninety t Higgins last five games without Chase,

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Speaker 3: that's about his numbers. Two six point two catches, one

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Speaker 3: hundred and two yards, three of the five games one

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Speaker 3: hundred and fourteen yards. So that's kind of the line.

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Speaker 3: I'm shooting four with Higgins. Ninety yards is where I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna play it at plus two forty, so kind of

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Speaker 3: just shooting right for the outlier. And then I like

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Speaker 3: this part better if it's Flacco actually, just because of

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Speaker 3: what we've seen. He is five touchdowns titas in the

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Speaker 3: five Flacco games all but one game, so a touchdown

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Speaker 3: is plus one forty and then if you do those together,

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Speaker 3: ninety yards and a score plus four twenty five at DraftKings.

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Speaker 3: So I'm gonna play all these either way. I do

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Speaker 3: like the touchdown a little bit more just because the

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Speaker 3: chemistry with Flacco, but you know, obviously no Jamar Chase

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Speaker 3: makes touchdown a little bit easier there, and then Chase Brown.

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Speaker 3: The Patriots allow the least running back fantasy points. That's

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Speaker 3: because the run defense, but they allow the most running

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Speaker 3: back receptions. They've allowed seven running backs already at least

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Speaker 3: five catches on the season, a Chan and Bijon eight

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Speaker 3: catches each against the Patriots. So Chase Brown. The key

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Speaker 3: here is Samaj p Ryan. We're betting on t because

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Speaker 3: Chase this out. We're betting on Brown because p Ran

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Speaker 3: is out. P Ryan's the receiving back. And with him

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Speaker 3: out right now, Brown's played almost ninety percent of the

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Speaker 3: snaps the last two weeks. And here's what he's done

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Speaker 3: as a receiver. Eight targets, six catches for twenty eight

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Speaker 3: one game, fourteen targets, eight for seventy five in the

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Speaker 3: other game. And what you like here is, even if

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Speaker 3: we're wrong about the Bengals, maybe they kind of get

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Speaker 3: blown out, maybe the Patriots run it up. That's a

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Speaker 3: pretty good game script for Chase Brown catching passes out

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Speaker 3: of the backfield. So I like the over four and

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Speaker 3: a half catches for Chase Brown. That's Evan Odds. And

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Speaker 3: then I'll go six, seven, eight catches up the escalator

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Speaker 3: plus one seventy five plus three twenty plus six fifty

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Speaker 3: on those. And again I will say this, I really

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Speaker 3: like this with Joe Flacco, He's this season. In nine starts,

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Speaker 3: he's at a running back catch five, six, eight and

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Speaker 3: eight passes, So I definitely like it with Flacco if

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Speaker 3: he's in, I'm still playing all of these. I'll still

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Speaker 3: play them with Burrow either way, because you know he's

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Speaker 3: pretty good too. I can live with that. So Chase

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Speaker 3: Brown five six, seven, eight on the catches T Higgins

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Speaker 3: ninety yards, ninety in a score and then Bengals all

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Speaker 3: the way plus six and a half best lining and

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Speaker 3: get plus two to fifty money line best lining and

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Speaker 3: get Obviously, this is gonna be a first screen for me.

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Speaker 3: This is the big game for me this week, and

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Speaker 3: I'll be watching our Bengals and see what they can do.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're gonna get. Probably another week without

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Speaker 2: Gasiki as well. Looks like he's starting to practice, but

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Speaker 2: I don't think he's ready yet, so probably just fan

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Speaker 2: and you had said it. But Higgins without Chase, like

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Speaker 2: obviously he's the only guy there. Numbers should be good.

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Speaker 2: But last three games, eight targets, nine targets, thirteen targets,

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Speaker 2: and he's got one hundred plus yards in each game,

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Speaker 2: touchdown in two of the three games, at least five

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Speaker 2: receptions in all three games, Like the numbers are there,

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Speaker 2: so I think whether we're right about the Bengals or

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Speaker 2: they're trailing, these props seem to have kind of a

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Speaker 2: full proof script, but so kind of like this situation.

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Speaker 2: But all right, you ready for their next game here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we got enough Bengals for one podcast. Let's go

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Speaker 3: to our next one.

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Speaker 2: Let's go Bengals. All right, next one not as exciting,

386
00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:47,920
Speaker 2: but still an interesting handicapping spot. Jaguars and Cardinals here,

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Speaker 2: how you betting it?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: So no real spoiler here is since the Cardinals were

390
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Speaker 3: in my pick six on the money line, but I

391
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Speaker 3: like the Cardinals at plus three, I'll be playing the

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Speaker 3: money line as well. This is really just kind of

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Speaker 3: a baffling to me. We're making the Jaguars a full

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Speaker 3: three on the road against like a decent team. I'm

395
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Speaker 3: just not there with that. This to me is a

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Speaker 3: great spot to buy low on Arizona and a great

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Speaker 3: spot to sell high in Jacksonville. So we kind of

398
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Speaker 3: get the double whammy here. On our Sunday recap we

399
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Speaker 3: talked about both these teams. Cardinals kind of got unlucky.

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Speaker 3: They lucked into finally healthy forty nine Ers. So everyone

401
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 3: thinks that they look terrible now, but the Cardinals have

402
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Speaker 3: really been in almost every game this season until that one.

403
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Speaker 3: Jacksonville did get lucky. They faced the Chargers with like

404
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Speaker 3: nobody left in the trenches and no offensive line anymore,

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Speaker 3: and they kind of ran up on them. But I

406
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Speaker 3: think that has really shifted this line too far to me,

407
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Speaker 3: these teams are back to back in my power ratings,

408
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Speaker 3: like these are relatively equal teams in Arizona's at home,

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Speaker 3: so I'd make the Cardinals favorites right here. I think

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Speaker 3: the defense for Arizona is the best unit on the field.

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Speaker 1: Does look good.

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Speaker 3: Garrett Williams, Annuil Johnson. Their top two corners both practicing,

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Speaker 3: so hopefully they're out there. Jacksonville, they're like entire roster

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Speaker 3: is in the injury report. It's like a list of

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Speaker 3: twenty names right now. Touton and Etn both the running backs,

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Speaker 3: Brian Thomas Junior. We know Travis Hunter is out. Strange

417
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Speaker 3: is practicing, but he doesn't look like he'll be ready yet.

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Speaker 3: Both trenches, they got some guys injured. Both top corners

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Speaker 3: are possibly out. I'm gonna guess a bunch of these

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Speaker 3: guys play, but it's a mess on the injury report,

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Speaker 3: and especially those running backs I think matter because one

422
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 3: spot Jacksonville could have an age we'd be running the

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Speaker 3: ball against this opponent. But I think if both those

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Speaker 3: guys are limited or not top notch, that matters too.

425
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Speaker 3: And then Cardinals obviously missing Marvin Harrison and missing Kyler,

426
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,200
Speaker 3: but they've looked honestly better without those guys. Right now,

427
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 3: they're functioning really well with Jacoby Brissett. And this is

428
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Speaker 3: just a really really strong trend spot for Arizona. So

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Speaker 3: couple trends against Trevor Lawrence ten and fifteen ats as

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Speaker 3: a favorite only forty percent cover rate, seven and sixteen

431
00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 3: against teams below five hundred thirty percent ats for Trevor Lawrence,

432
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 3: so not the overdog that you want to be betting on.

433
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,080
Speaker 3: And then some team magnostic trends. These are just three

434
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 3: trends that all say the same thing. Sell high Jacksonville

435
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 3: by low Arizona. So teams that just won by seventeen

436
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 3: or more as a touchdown or less underdog, that's Jacksonville

437
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 3: thirty five percent ats the following game sixty five one,

438
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:27,360
Speaker 3: twenty one and three similar trend teams off of seventeen

439
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,920
Speaker 3: point loss Arizona against teams off a seventeen or more win,

440
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:35,440
Speaker 3: fifty nine percent cover rate, and then last somewhat similar

441
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:40,400
Speaker 3: home teams Arizona against an underdog that covered by twenty

442
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 3: five or more. That's Jacksonville since twenty ten, forty fifteen

443
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 3: and one ats seventy three percent. So just a lot

444
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 3: of value here on the underdog. And I really can't

445
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,479
Speaker 3: believe we're getting the plus three like we get the

446
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 3: full key number here, so I love to get that,

447
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,440
Speaker 3: and plus one forty five on the money line as well.

448
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 3: And then of course we're gonna keep riding with Trey McBride.

449
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,919
Speaker 3: It's tight Ends day two here on the podcast. So

450
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 3: start with McBride. Brisset games five times now eight point

451
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 3: four catches, eighty nine yards a game, at least one touchdown.

452
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 3: Every game with Brisset, Jaguars' second most tight end points allowed.

453
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,400
Speaker 3: And don't we know it, this was our brock Bauer smash.

454
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 3: This is the team that we played the big knot

455
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 3: line against with Bowers. So last seven games against a

456
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 3: tight end to one six touchdowns given up by Jacksonville.

457
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 3: So McBride touchdown second straight week. Just run it back

458
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 3: plus one ten and we got a touch two touchdowns

459
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 3: at seven to one. Also because you know, we like

460
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 3: the Cardinals here, so he'll have a couple shots to

461
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 3: score and then a couple others here. McBride receptions with

462
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,919
Speaker 3: Brisset eight, nine to ten and ten in four of

463
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 3: those five games. So let's go ten receptions for Trey

464
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 3: at plus two to twenty. And if you like the

465
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:57,440
Speaker 3: Arizona angle, McBride touchdown in a Cardinals win, if you

466
00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 3: want the same game partly as plus three zero five.

467
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 3: So I love Arizona. I think this is a really

468
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 3: bad number. And yeah, Jacksonville should not be favored by

469
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 3: three in this game.

470
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,919
Speaker 2: Yeah that three's disappearing as well. Three's becoming minus one

471
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 2: zero five. I think it'll probably come down before kickoff.

472
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 2: So I think that's a good number before the weekend.

473
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:18,920
Speaker 2: The thing that's crazy to me about the McBride stuff,

474
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 2: so we've seen the more touchdowns with Brissett than Kyler, Like,

475
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 2: I think the numbers make sense, the stat a little

476
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 2: bit overblown, but when you look a little bit deeper

477
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,399
Speaker 2: about the touchdowns that McBride has actually caught from one

478
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 2: quarterback first the other. It's actually pretty crazy. So McBride

479
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 2: has caught a touchdown pass of ten plus yards six

480
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 2: times in his career. None have come with Kyler. He's

481
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 2: done it five times with Brissett once with Josh Dobbs.

482
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 2: He has more touchdown passes of ten plus yards with

483
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 2: Josh Dobbs than he does with Kyler. Murray just insane

484
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 2: all around. So I think it's a different offense and

485
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 2: he's getting the ball in better spots with Brissette. So

486
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 2: not only is he getting looked at more often, but

487
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 2: I really just believe that, like overall throughout the game,

488
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 2: leading trailing, like he's a bigger part of the offense. Also,

489
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,400
Speaker 2: no Marvin Harrison kind of changes a lot of things

490
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 2: that's going on here. The reason Michael Wilson went absolutely nuts.

491
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 2: So that's the handicap there, But all right, let's keep

492
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 2: going here. Cowboys Eagles, Now this one has a lot

493
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 2: of a lot involved here between Dallas's offense what we've

494
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,439
Speaker 2: seen from Philly. So I think a lot of people

495
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 2: seem to be going to Dallas's side this week, like

496
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 2: they're getting a few points at home. Their offense seems

497
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 2: to be clicking lately, You've gotten some upgrades on the

498
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 2: defensive side. Like everything momentum wise seems to be going

499
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 2: with Dallas. Why do you agree?

500
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:46,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on Dallas as well.

501
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 3: Give me the plus three and a half while it's there,

502
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 3: give me the money line plus one fifty five more,

503
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 3: just on the plus three and a half on this one.

504
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 3: But yeah, this is a spot that I had circled

505
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:58,400
Speaker 3: even before the Monday night game. And obviously they looked

506
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 3: really good in that game. But Eagles just continue to

507
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,360
Speaker 3: get by on the skinner of their teeth. The offense

508
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 3: has not really been clicking. I'm looking for ways or

509
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 3: spots to fade this team. And look, we saw this

510
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 3: in the opener on the season. The Cowboys played them

511
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 3: pretty much dead, even in that huge adrenaline home spot

512
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 3: for Philly. But this time is in Dallas, and that's

513
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 3: where it started for me, because in this specific matchup,

514
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 3: it's a huge swing. The home team has won twelve

515
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 3: of the last fourteen games in this rivalry, and the

516
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 3: two losses by the home team the home team had

517
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:33,439
Speaker 3: their backup quarterback in on those so home rules in

518
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 3: this one, and Dallas, we know their offense specifically, is

519
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 3: just way better at home, clearly more comfortable at home.

520
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 3: We know the Cowboys special teams are better as well,

521
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:47,679
Speaker 3: so that the advantage for Philly has to be the defense. Okay, well,

522
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,679
Speaker 3: the defense has been really good, no doubt for the

523
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 3: Eagles the last couple of weeks especially, but Dallas's defense

524
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 3: is improving some. I'm not going to call them good,

525
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,880
Speaker 3: but they looked positive with Quinn Williams, and I think

526
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 3: they've settled in enough to be just bad, not awful anymore,

527
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,119
Speaker 3: like just tenth worst, not Bengals worst.

528
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: And I think that matters.

529
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 3: Specifically because the Eagles offense not only has it been struggling,

530
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 3: but now is missing Lane Johnson. He's out for at

531
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 3: least a month forward and Cam Jurgens is out, so

532
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 3: two linemen and the splits with Lane Johnson are just insane.

533
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 3: This season on off with Lane Johnson goes plus point

534
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 3: eighteen EPA per play, fourteen percent DVOA plus fifty one

535
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:35,880
Speaker 3: expected points for his career from Bill Barnwell. The Eagles

536
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,399
Speaker 3: with Lane Johnson on the field since they drafted him.

537
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 1: Third in EPA per play for his entire career.

538
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 3: When he's off twenty eighth, so they go from a

539
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 3: top three offense to a bottom five offense.

540
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: And specifically, I think.

541
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 3: He's the best pass protector in the NFL, So that's

542
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 3: a specific Jalen Hurts downgrade when already that's the part

543
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 3: we don't trust here, and that's really the part the

544
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 3: Eagles have been a little better at lately. For honest,

545
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:04,160
Speaker 3: the run game hasn't been great, so that's already a downgrade.

546
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 3: We know how I feel about Jalen Hurts against teams

547
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 3: below five hundred in his career eleven eighteen and two

548
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 3: ats thirty eight percent, so this is not really the

549
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 3: spot for him as the favorite. And Eagles eight wins

550
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 3: this season, seven by one score. So I want the

551
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 3: plus three and a half because we're getting that above

552
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 3: the hook if it's there. I know that one's disappearing

553
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 3: a little bit as well, but I'm going to play

554
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 3: more of the bet on this one, on just the

555
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 3: plus three and a half. I do think Dallas is live.

556
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 3: I would pick them to win. I will bet the

557
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 3: money line, but I could see a world where the

558
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 3: Eagles do the Eagles thing again, kind of like Chiefs

559
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 3: last year, and come through at the end win by

560
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 3: a field goal, win by two point conversion, something like that.

561
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 3: So I'll put most of the bet here on the

562
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,479
Speaker 3: Cowboys plus three and a half. But I really think

563
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 3: Dallas can win this game.

564
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 2: Yeah. I'll give you some numbers you're probably gonna hear

565
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 2: everywhere and maybe a few you don't. So DAK thirty

566
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 2: one thirteen against the spread versus NFC Other than Aaron Rodgers,

567
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,160
Speaker 2: he's the best we have in our database. The number

568
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 2: you're gonna hear everywhere, twenty one and two straight up

569
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 2: at home versus the NFC East absolutely dominated his career.

570
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:13,119
Speaker 2: He's went eighteen in a row at home in this spot.

571
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 2: So these are just these are games he usually comes away.

572
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 2: Here's the one that knocked me. So when an NFC

573
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 2: East team made the playoffs the year before, they're zero

574
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 2: to nine straight up when facing DAK in Dallas, losing

575
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 2: by nineteen point six points per game. So what that

576
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 2: is in Dak's career is the team who made the

577
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 2: playoffs with the NFC East the year before and never

578
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,640
Speaker 2: wins the division the next year because of the trend

579
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 2: that everyone understands where the team never repeats. So whoever

580
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 2: this is seems to be probably fading in the wrong

581
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 2: direction when entering this game against dak who's undervalued, which

582
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 2: is exactly probably the spot we are sitting in at

583
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 2: the moment. The one thing that gives me a little

584
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: bit of pause, which I've listened these are different teams

585
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 2: at different times, But here's interesting one. So since the

586
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 2: start of last year, hurts is actually seven to zero

587
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 2: for teams who scored thirty plus in their previous game.

588
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 2: None of those seven teams scored twenty seven versus the

589
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 2: Eagles in the game after So what you're really asking

590
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 2: for is Dallas to be able to put up the

591
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 2: performance again against the defense that really good. But I

592
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 2: think it's Philly's offensive side of the ball that you're

593
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 2: alluding to, is like, can they keep up even if

594
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 2: Dallas scores twenty four or whatever it is, because Philly

595
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 2: is really banged up, and I think the run game

596
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 2: and the Lane Johnson stuff, all of that is completely real,

597
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 2: Like the offense tends to change without pushback on the

598
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 2: offensive line side, And I think it's a massive cluster

599
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 2: injury that Philly is gonna have to deal with here.

600
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 2: So I'm on your side, yeah.

601
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 3: And it's an injury at the most important thing about

602
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 3: the Eagles that has become their identity for years now

603
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 3: and is why they have been so good year after year.

604
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 3: It's the offensive line. Like that's my first article every fall,

605
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 3: is the offensive line rankings. That is the underrated thing

606
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 3: that makes teams so good year after year, and that

607
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 3: is the thing that is faiting for them right now,

608
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 3: and it's why we're fading this week.

609
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 2: All right, Well, here we go, Dallas Cowboys on a run.

610
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 2: Nothing like back in that train. One more before the

611
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 2: lightning round, Rams Bucks. I feel like this is the

612
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 2: Sunday night football game with so many interesting games beforehand,

613
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 2: not many people talking about it, Like it's honestly, is

614
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 2: two great teams, two great records, same conference. What do

615
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 2: you make of Rams Bucks?

616
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, it really is an interesting game. And I think

617
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 3: in the NFC, we've got so many interesting teams buying

618
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 3: for position and we're gonna probably get one of these

619
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 3: NFC type games every week at this point. But this

620
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 3: feels like it could be a playoff game, and I

621
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 3: think not even necessarily a first round playoff game in

622
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 3: the NFC, but yeah, not I want to talk about it.

623
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 3: I like the Rams and it's minus six and a half.

624
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 3: I'm gonna grab it before the seven if you can.

625
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 3: I feel like there's a lot of talk this week about, yeah,

626
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 3: maybe time to sell the Rams. They've probably reached peak

627
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 3: value after the Seahawks. I'm not quite there yet, and

628
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 3: I think books haven't quite cut up still to what

629
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 3: should be true. Buccaneers rating so the thirteenth in DVA

630
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 3: on the season, but last six games. The offense, what's

631
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 3: supposed to be the strength on this team nineteenth overall

632
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 3: twenty second passing, so almost bottom ten, And it makes sense, right,

633
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 3: No Chris Godwin, no Mike Evans, still no Bucky Irving.

634
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:20,959
Speaker 3: It looks like Godwin and Irving are out again. The

635
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:24,479
Speaker 3: old line is banged up. It just hasn't really been healthy.

636
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 3: And the defense I think has kind of overperformed what

637
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 3: we thought they would be. And I'm not sure they're

638
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 3: going to against an offense as good and as potent

639
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 3: as the Rams. I think this is specifically a pretty

640
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 3: bad matchup for Todd Bowles defense. Defense invites the pass

641
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 3: because they're so good against the run. Well, cass who

642
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 3: can pass. MVP favorite Matthew Stafford is gonna be able

643
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 3: to pass just well, and the Rams lead the league

644
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 3: in most play action. Buccaneers are bottom five EPA per

645
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 3: play against play action. Their linebackers have been getting picked

646
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 3: on week after week, game after game all season. And

647
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 3: you know, I have to come back to it. That

648
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 3: thirteen personnel. It really didn't play a huge thing in

649
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 3: the Seahawks game. This is the matchup for thirteen personnel.

650
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 3: Three tight ends on the field. The goal is to

651
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 3: force linebackers to get on the field, and if you

652
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 3: do that against the Buccaneers, you can put up some

653
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 3: big points on them. On the season, Tampa when they

654
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 3: have faced two tight ends or more with four or

655
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 3: fewer defensive backs on the field worst in the NFL.

656
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 3: Nine yards per attempt facing opposing passes. In that that's

657
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 3: a first down basically on every play. So you know

658
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 3: I'm running back Terrence Ferguson. We're not out, baby, We're

659
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 3: going longest reception escalator again. But there's no lines, but

660
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 3: keep an eye. It'll be in the app Buccaneers allow

661
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 3: bottom twelve most explosive plays as well. I didn't mention

662
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 3: it as well. Jamel Dean has been awesome for Tampa Bay.

663
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 3: Their corner he's the number one rated PFF corner in

664
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 3: the season, and he looks like he's out in this one.

665
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 3: He got hurt early last game, and you don't want

666
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 3: to be missing your top corner again. Pooka and DeVante

667
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 3: Adams out there. So I just can't figure out why

668
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 3: this line shouldn't be higher, And instinctively it's like, well,

669
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 3: the Bucks are pretty good, shouldn't it be lower? But

670
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 3: last week Bills were minus five and a half. Now

671
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 3: Rams are six and a half. Well, I think the

672
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 3: Rams are more than a point better than the Bills.

673
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 3: I think they're a way better defense and the better offense.

674
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 3: And I like the Bills last week and I wanted

675
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 3: to take them in the one by twelve. That's closer

676
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 3: to what I make this lineup. So I'm not gonna

677
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 3: be intimidated by the line this time. I got scared

678
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,719
Speaker 3: away last week it felt a little high. I'm not

679
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 3: scared away this time. Below the key number easy money

680
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 3: on Sunday night. Give me the Rams minus six and

681
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 3: a half.

682
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, you stole my thunder. I mean, the Dan injury

683
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 2: to me is top notch. Like that's probably the one

684
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 2: to look at the most here, especially with the wide

685
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 2: receivers and the issue that can give and the thirteen

686
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 2: personnel and however they want to scheme two tight ends

687
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 2: on the field, just gonna put Vedavea going in both

688
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 2: directions and you just want him confused and not coming

689
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 2: after the quarterback. To me, that is the right way

690
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 2: to handle it. A few stats just to roll down here,

691
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 2: because it all kind of works with you. Baker's played

692
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 2: thirteen night games since twenty twenty one, two and eleven

693
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 2: straight up in those games hasn't been good. Here's the

694
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 2: one that I thought was interesting. Todd Bowles as a

695
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 2: head coach never faced back to back road games where

696
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,919
Speaker 2: both teams were above five hundred. So all those years

697
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 2: with the Jets, all with the Bucks, like this is

698
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,839
Speaker 2: a situation where tough road game to tough road game,

699
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 2: lots of injuries. I think Tampa Bay could attract some

700
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 2: tickets and money just by the large number and the

701
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 2: names and the record, but if you actually look at

702
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 2: the team, it's not very pretty. And one more for

703
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 2: you after an ATS loss, McVeigh now eight and zero

704
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 2: straight up as a favorite since it started twenty twenty three.

705
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 2: So you have faith with the Rams now. You just

706
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:50,280
Speaker 2: got to cover the number.

707
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:56,760
Speaker 3: Con see the funder lightning round, lighting the thunder.

708
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 2: Let's get to our lightning round here. Just another game

709
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 2: on the docket. I said, of all the double digit

710
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 2: favorites this week, this was probably my favorite for a blowout.

711
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 2: I would prefer a certain quarterback on the other side,

712
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 2: but we will have to see there. You're looking at

713
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 2: Giants and Lions. What do you like here?

714
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we're on the same page. Give me

715
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:19,760
Speaker 3: the Lions minus ten. I'm gonna play the blowout escalator

716
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 3: as well. So this was the look ahead we gave

717
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 3: out last week. Nine and a half hasn't really moved

718
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 3: up like I thought it would.

719
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:26,879
Speaker 1: I still like it just as much.

720
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 3: There's no dead cap bounce here for the coach that's

721
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 3: done already, no running back one, no receiver one for

722
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 3: the Giants. I don't know which quarterback is gonna be, honestly,

723
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:38,840
Speaker 3: and I'm honestly not positive which one I prefer. I

724
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,359
Speaker 3: prefer Russell Wilson. If you give me Russell Wilson, I'd

725
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 3: love a Russell Wilson out there.

726
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 2: Please.

727
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 3: Like Darter played pretty well, but I don't know if

728
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:49,280
Speaker 3: he's gonna feel comfortable running Jamis is just kind of variance,

729
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 3: and Canal is light up a secondary and there are

730
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 3: some injuries out there, so I kind of feel like

731
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,400
Speaker 3: I might just be okay with Dart in there personally,

732
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,320
Speaker 3: but I'm pretty okay with either side of it, because

733
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 3: Giants run defense is just gonna get mutilated in this

734
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 3: game Dead Last, DVA, Dead Last EPA per play against

735
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 3: Sonic and Knuckles, Jamier Gibbs and David like emrig is

736
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 3: gonna run over through into the woods everything on this

737
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 3: Giants defense. I wanted running back overs here. I just

738
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 3: can't figure out which one, like it just might be

739
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 3: a little bit of everything. So I did notice Detroit

740
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 3: runs a little better inside on the season, but they

741
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 3: run more often outside. That's where the Giants are more vulnerable.

742
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 3: Thirty second in EPA per play, So I would think

743
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:36,439
Speaker 3: probably that's Jumior Gibbs outside runs. Maybe like a longest run,

744
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 3: a big long one by Gibbs or something like that.

745
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 1: We'll see it.

746
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 3: Maybe I'll add that into the app. But some of

747
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 3: the old tried and true stats with the Lions, Jared

748
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:48,239
Speaker 3: Goff indoors with the Lions now thirty six thirteen and

749
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 3: one ats just unbelievable seventy three percent cover rate, and

750
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 3: the Lion's defense is number one at home this season

751
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:57,439
Speaker 3: versus just kind of top ten ish on the road,

752
00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 3: so that helps as well. And then a step that

753
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 3: I know you have in your article. Thirteen straight times

754
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 3: now the Lions have covered off of a loss this

755
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:08,720
Speaker 3: year three and zero after a loss, wins by fifteen,

756
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,840
Speaker 3: twenty two and a thirty one. Doubled your favorites for

757
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 3: the Lions since it started last year five and zero.

758
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 3: They have wins by twenty four, thirty eight, and forty six.

759
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 3: So I was just ready to tell you Lions minus ten, good,

760
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 3: get right spot into Thanksgiving. I'm still there, but I

761
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,759
Speaker 3: added last seconds, my last pick add into the dock.

762
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:27,240
Speaker 1: All right, what's the escalator?

763
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 3: So last two years, the Lions have won seven times

764
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 3: by twenty two or more points, So we'll start with

765
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 3: Lions minus twenty and a half three touchdowns basically plus

766
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 3: three forty eight. They've won four times by thirty one

767
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,720
Speaker 3: or more, so we'll go minus thirty and a half

768
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,359
Speaker 3: at eleven to one. And then they haven't done yet

769
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 3: this year, but last year they had wins by thirty

770
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 3: eight thirty eight and forty six. Can brandt Able get

771
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 3: fired again if that happens, I don't really know. But

772
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 3: the highest line I can find out there is Detroit

773
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 3: minus thirty seven and a half, which is exactly that

774
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,279
Speaker 3: number that they hit three times last year.

775
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:03,879
Speaker 1: That's twenty five to one.

776
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:07,360
Speaker 3: So Lions by ten and then by twenty one, thirty

777
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:10,720
Speaker 3: one and thirty eight. And you know when Detroit really

778
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:13,240
Speaker 3: gets going, as they have them for a while now.

779
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 3: But if they do, if this is a good get

780
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 3: right spot, like you said, this could be a blowout city.

781
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 2: The team with a pedigree like the Giants defense, so

782
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 2: teams allowing twenty four plus points per game. Since the

783
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 2: start of last year, facing Goff and Campbell, the Lions

784
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 2: are eight to no straight up against the spread, covering

785
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 2: by nineteen points per game. They are averaging forty three

786
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,399
Speaker 2: points per game in those games they scored forty four

787
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 2: plus and five of the eight games. Absolute and utter dismantling,

788
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 2: because usually these spots tend to actually come after a close,

789
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 2: tight game against a good team or a loss and

790
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 2: a letdown, like it just kind of happens to be

791
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 2: that way, and you sit in this spot again, I

792
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 2: think if I'm getting my wish. I think i'd probably

793
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 2: want Jamis, but I think either way, like Dart kind

794
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 2: of scares me a little bit. And with Jamis, I

795
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 2: feel like there's plenty of opportunities for me to get points,

796
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 2: you know, from the Detroit side the Giants side. There's

797
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 2: even if the Giants stay in the game. I feel

798
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 2: like I always have a shot. I think ten would

799
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 2: be nice here, right because even at three you feel

800
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 2: like there's an opportunity, while ten and a half you

801
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 2: kind of need a lot to happen. So I'm with you, though, Detroit,

802
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 2: here we go. All right, let's go to the next

803
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 2: one here, Seattle and the Titans. Huge road line. But listen,

804
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 2: it's Tennessee. It's which you get every single week with them.

805
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 2: So I assume you're not laying it. So how you

806
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 2: taking it?

807
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:44,399
Speaker 1: Yeah? Not laying at this one? Not on the road.

808
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 3: This is another one of those big doublegit favorites. I'm

809
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 3: gonna take the under here and then just give me

810
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:50,719
Speaker 3: the game under forty and a half. So last week

811
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 3: we got the DVAA bull one versus two Seahawks versus

812
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,960
Speaker 3: Rams whatever the opposite, Like this is the DVOA toilet Bull.

813
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:59,359
Speaker 3: It's one versus thirty two, like it's the best team

814
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 3: and the worst team. And look, Seattle. We talked about

815
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,759
Speaker 3: it on the recap. Their defense was awesome last week.

816
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 3: Their defense was the best thing on the field against

817
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:10,920
Speaker 3: the Rams, and their defense has been number one on

818
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:12,800
Speaker 3: the road this season. We know how good the Seahawks

819
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,760
Speaker 3: are on the road, better than at home for whatever reason.

820
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 3: And the Titans offense about as bad as it gets.

821
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 3: They're dead last in points per game on the season,

822
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 3: fourteen point three. Against the top ten defense, they're averaging

823
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 3: eleven points a game. So I started as okay, team

824
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 3: total under Well, the line's thirteen and a half, so

825
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 3: there's not a lot of margin there. Not a great

826
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:36,719
Speaker 3: offensive line, not great weapons. Calvin Ridley's out again, kem

827
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 3: Ward has not been great. Probably a little better out

828
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 3: of the bye week, but I don't really trust the

829
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:43,839
Speaker 3: coaching staff there anyway, So I'm kind of thinking under

830
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 3: on Titans. But on the flip side, the one weakness

831
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 3: that I still see in Seattle is the run game,

832
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 3: in particular the interior offensive line. Right now, my beloved

833
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 3: NDSU center and godd are both out for the Seahawks.

834
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 3: And right now in this matchup that really matches up

835
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 3: against what's I think the one strength on the Titans.

836
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:09,280
Speaker 3: They're dtackles. Jeffrey Simmons has been unbelievable this year. Tovandre

837
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 3: Sweat has been really good as well. I think that

838
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 3: is maybe the best dtackle combo in the NFL went healthy,

839
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 3: which they haven't really been. So I don't love that

840
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 3: interior pressure may become an all game against Sam Darnold.

841
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 3: Maybe we just kind of get an ugly, just get

842
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 3: the win and get out of here Seattle type game.

843
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 3: I'm not too worried that they'll get the win. These

844
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 3: are two of the three lowest variance teams for the season,

845
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 3: so it's kind of just saying this is who we are,

846
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 3: and Seattle is good and Tennessee is bad. I thought

847
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 3: this was kind of like a free space for the

848
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 3: pick six article that I did as far as the

849
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 3: money line, but I like the under totals that are

850
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 3: between thirty nine and forty four that have dropped a

851
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 3: point to four points since twenty seventeen, So basically the

852
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 3: market is telling you under keep playing the under in

853
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 3: that spot. It's fifty four point three percent of the

854
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 3: under on a pretty big sample size. I'm already seeing

855
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 3: this forty thirty nine and a half. I think this

856
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 3: is gonna keep dropping a little bit more. So give

857
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 3: me the under forty and a half, and I think

858
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:09,360
Speaker 3: this is just kind of an ugly snoozer that probably

859
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 3: will be down at the end of our rundown on

860
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 3: Sunday night.

861
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, when under Mike McDonald, when Seattle's a favorite, they

862
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 2: allow eighteen points per game. When Seattle's a road favorite,

863
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 2: it's fifteen points. Seven points per game. Tennessee's team total,

864
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 2: like you said's around thirteen and a half. I even

865
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 2: look this one up. Last decade, we've seen five games

866
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 2: with a road favorite of over eleven points at a

867
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 2: total of forty two or less, which is basically Vegas

868
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 2: telling us or whoever setting the lines these days, this

869
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 2: is what the line is. This is what's gonna happen.

870
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 2: Correct score twenty eight to thirteen, twenty seven to thirteen,

871
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:43,040
Speaker 2: something of that nature. So in all five of those games,

872
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 2: one team scored seventeen or less. In all five the

873
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 2: under was four and one. So I think basically what

874
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 2: you're saying is is can Tennessee score seventeen points? If

875
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 2: they do it probably sneaks over. Seattle's gonna score between

876
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 2: twenty four and twenty eight. The one thing I'll say

877
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 2: is this, and I was quickly just scrolling DraftKings. I

878
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 2: think some correct scores could be some could be fun here,

879
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 2: like twenty eight to thirteen, twenty seven to thirteen, like

880
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,879
Speaker 2: certain numbers. I feel like this one is a little predictable.

881
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:17,120
Speaker 2: And I think Tennessee's score especially, and I'm not necessarily

882
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 2: sure like Mike McDonald's going to run it up. This

883
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,360
Speaker 2: isn't you know, him trying to go for the polls.

884
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, that could be some just

885
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 2: some fun you can have.

886
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 3: So that's I hope for twenty seven to thirteen, not

887
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 3: twenty eight thirteen, because only one of those hits are

888
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 3: under I know.

889
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 2: I had thought about that when scrolling through. But just

890
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 2: something fun to note. All right, let's keep going here.

891
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,959
Speaker 2: We talked about this at the top in my two

892
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 2: big points. But Casey, Indy, how are you attacking this one?

893
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:47,720
Speaker 2: Because I feel like the lines it's a strange one.

894
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 1: Yeah.

895
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 3: So Chiefs are minus three and a half and I

896
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:52,840
Speaker 3: just really looked hard at Chiefs. I looked at Chiefs

897
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 3: pretty hard on my pick six. Did I want them

898
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 3: in the money line? It's obviously the big game of

899
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 3: the week. I think Chiefs five and five sort of

900
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,720
Speaker 3: fighting for their life and their playoff spot. I still

901
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 3: instinctively trust the Chiefs at home in a really big spot.

902
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 3: The defense is way better at home. Clepta on Twitter

903
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 3: talks about the opponent team total going under in that

904
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 3: spot against the Chiefs defense but above minus three. It's

905
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 3: pretty tough, man that the Colts have been really good

906
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 3: this season, But against real teams, have they been that good?

907
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 3: They beat the Chargers by fourteen. Well, I don't know

908
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:26,800
Speaker 3: if that really counts, how real given all the injuries

909
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 3: on their line and everything.

910
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 1: Otherwise.

911
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,399
Speaker 3: They lost the Rams. They lost the Steelers by touchdown each.

912
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 3: They beat the Broncos but by one and kind of

913
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 3: on a flute penalty at the end of the game.

914
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:39,879
Speaker 3: Not super impressive against top competition. They had a pretty

915
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 3: soft schedule so far, so I was ready to go Mahomes.

916
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 3: We know the stats, right, as a three point favorite

917
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,759
Speaker 3: or worse for his career seventy percent ats, well, two

918
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:52,040
Speaker 3: and three ats this year. Okay, maybe not after a

919
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 3: loss twenty three and six straight up for Mahomes, well

920
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 3: two and two after a loss this year. Okay, so

921
00:44:57,920 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 3: maybe I'm a little hesitant. And then the other thing

922
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:01,759
Speaker 3: that caught me is what led me to the pick

923
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 3: I'm going to make here, which is a prop instead.

924
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 3: And he's coming off the buye. Mahomes is owing to

925
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 3: four ats against them pulling off the buy in his career,

926
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 3: and specifically he's facing lou Aana Rumo's defense coming off

927
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 3: of bye with time to prep, and Louanna Arumo is

928
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 3: really really messed with Mahomes in his career. Look all

929
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:23,240
Speaker 3: those times Mahomes and Burrow back to Bengals and Arumo

930
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 3: is the defensive corner for the Bengals all those seasons,

931
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 3: and he really got the defense messing with Mahomes and

932
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 3: with his timing in those games. So that sort of

933
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 3: threw me off. But I thought, hey, you know, what

934
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 3: else do I know about lou Ana Rumo. Lou and

935
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 3: Rumo's defenses are awful against tight ends, So I'm going

936
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 3: Travis Kelcey here. Bengals were the worst team against tight

937
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 3: ends last year, They're awful again this year. The Colts

938
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 3: are now the fifth worst team against tight ends. Fifth

939
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:52,880
Speaker 3: worst DVOA, fifth most tight end points allowed. They're really

940
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:55,320
Speaker 3: good against whitey ero one, So this is not a

941
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:58,839
Speaker 3: Rashi Rice game necessarily. I think it's a Travis Kelcey game.

942
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 3: The Colts haven't really faced great tight ends yet, but

943
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 3: they did give up one hundred and sixty four in

944
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:06,879
Speaker 3: a touchdown to Gadsden kind of his breakout game. They

945
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 3: did face Trey McBride, he had eight seventy one in

946
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:12,280
Speaker 3: a score. So I think Kelsey's lyne it's under its

947
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 3: fifty and a half yards. I think it's just disrespectful

948
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 3: to the old man. Like I know, we're kind of

949
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 3: like getting ready to send him out to pastures soon.

950
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:23,240
Speaker 3: Even with him coming down this season, he's at forty

951
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 3: seven yards or more all but one game.

952
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 1: That's the line. Basically, we need four yards above his

953
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 1: floor to hit the over.

954
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 3: So over fifty and a half yards and I'm not

955
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 3: gonna go super too crazy on the escalator. I'm not

956
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 3: picturing like a two hundred yard crazy Kelsey game. But

957
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 3: last six games for Kelsey, he's had six catches for

958
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 3: sixty yards. Four of those that's plus one ninety two

959
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 3: six for sixties. We'll play that as well, and then

960
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 3: three of those six he's had that with the touchdown

961
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:54,799
Speaker 3: at the touchdown is plus three ninety So not a

962
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 3: huge outlier here, just a good quality Travis Kelsey game

963
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,240
Speaker 3: in what kind of is a playoff game, right, Kelsey

964
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 3: saves his best for the games they absolutely need it,

965
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 3: and they need it in this game from him, and

966
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 3: I think that they're gonna kind of take the bubble

967
00:47:08,120 --> 00:47:10,439
Speaker 3: wrap off and use Travis as much as they can.

968
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:13,800
Speaker 3: So over the fifty and a half yards six sixty

969
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 3: and with a touchdown for the escalator.

970
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 2: I think there's some fun narrative props you can possibly

971
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:24,280
Speaker 2: look into for Casey Indy this week because I think

972
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:28,239
Speaker 2: Tyler Warren could score, Kelsey could score. There could be

973
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:31,360
Speaker 2: some conversation back and forth because Warren's had an unbelievable season.

974
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 2: I also think Kelsey first touchdown, Kelsey to get two.

975
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:38,799
Speaker 2: Like I think Casey's up against the ropes. I think

976
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:41,719
Speaker 2: Worthy hasn't been involved in the offense since Rice came back,

977
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 2: and everyone knows that Rice is where Mahomes has been

978
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 2: keying into. So I feel like Kelsey has an opportunity

979
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:49,840
Speaker 2: here in the middle of the field. The stats that

980
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 2: I looked into because depending on how you think this

981
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 2: game is going to go will kind of depend on

982
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 2: how you feel about Travis. But the question I have

983
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 2: is who leads Kansas City and receiving yards when Casey

984
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:02,840
Speaker 2: he's been trailing in this year, The answer is Kelsey.

985
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 2: Who has the most receptions when Casey's been trailing. The

986
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 2: answer is also Kelsey twenty three. Kelsey has seventeen first

987
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 2: downs when Casey's trailing. The thing is is that if

988
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 2: you like the Colts, which you can go back and

989
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 2: forth here, but even if Casey's winning, I still think

990
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 2: he's going to get a lot of the work. And

991
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 2: if they're trailing, I think those stats really come into play,

992
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 2: and I think in the red zone they're going to

993
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 2: look to Kelsey here, So I think there's a possibility

994
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:28,440
Speaker 2: of you, even if he gets real tight on some

995
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:31,000
Speaker 2: of these fifty sixty yards, I think he could score

996
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:32,880
Speaker 2: once or twice. So that's my feeling.

997
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he's set up for a good game.

998
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 3: And I was just thinking it's kind of crazy that

999
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:39,279
Speaker 3: this is not like the late afternoon game. It just

1000
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 3: feels like it should be like the game of the week,

1001
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:43,400
Speaker 3: and instead I don't know if you've looked at what

1002
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:46,120
Speaker 3: the late afternoon slate is, but we've got four pretty

1003
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 3: rough games. So unless Cowboys Eagles lives up to what

1004
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:51,439
Speaker 3: we're hoping for, it could be kind of a rough

1005
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:54,840
Speaker 3: late afternoon. I think Travis Kelcey should be catching passes

1006
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:55,760
Speaker 3: at like five o'clock.

1007
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 1: I don't know why we're not doing that.

1008
00:48:57,360 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 2: You're right. The one piece of news today I saw

1009
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 2: was Daniel Jones now questionable, So obviously take a look there.

1010
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 2: He had like an injury designation. Probably good to go,

1011
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 2: but also how much disrespect All eyes will be in

1012
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:13,080
Speaker 2: Vegas at four twenty five or four oh five pm

1013
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 2: Eastern for Shador's debut. Believe me, everyone will be watching

1014
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 2: that game no matter what. All right, but let's keep

1015
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:21,759
Speaker 2: going here. Forget Shador in Cleveland. This is a different game,

1016
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:28,080
Speaker 2: Falcon Saints. This line was Atlanta two and a half.

1017
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 2: Now New Orleans up to minus two. I have a

1018
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:34,680
Speaker 2: great fun stat to follow this up, but what's your

1019
00:49:34,719 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 2: prop here?

1020
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 3: I can't believe that we're in a world where Tyler

1021
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 3: Shuck is a favorite. As we hit week twelve and

1022
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:45,040
Speaker 3: the Saint game, like people are on the Saints to me,

1023
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:47,880
Speaker 3: it's a bit of an overreaction. Obviously, Michael Pennix is

1024
00:49:47,920 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 3: out and Drake London is out, so it's Kirk Cousins season.

1025
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:54,320
Speaker 3: Kirk against opponents off of by two and nine ats

1026
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:56,719
Speaker 3: in his career. But I don't know who wins the game.

1027
00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:58,359
Speaker 3: I honest say, you don't really care who wins this game.

1028
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:01,400
Speaker 3: These teams are not relevant anymore. I do know Kirk Cousins, though,

1029
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 3: and Kirk loves to throw to his tight end, and

1030
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 3: with Drake London out, Cale Pitts is pretty much the

1031
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:09,359
Speaker 3: only guy Kirk can throw too, so it's tight end's

1032
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 3: day here again. On the podcast, Pitt's biggest game of

1033
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 3: the season so far was his career high receptions nine

1034
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:19,799
Speaker 3: with Kirk Cousins for fifty nine yards, and in that game,

1035
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 3: Drake London was out too, So this isn't really a

1036
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,320
Speaker 3: Saints matchup thing. This is just I think Pitts is

1037
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 3: basically the wide receiver one for Kirk, and I think

1038
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 3: he's gonna pep him all game long. He's had seven

1039
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:32,920
Speaker 3: receptions two other games this season along with that nine,

1040
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:35,880
Speaker 3: so I'm gonna take just a small Pits escalator seven

1041
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 3: catches eight and nine. At DraftKings, it's plus two eighty

1042
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:43,440
Speaker 3: for seven plus five thirteen for eight plus nine sixty

1043
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 3: for nine. I just think Kirk's going to have to

1044
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:47,719
Speaker 3: throw to someone. And this is an ugly game, but

1045
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:49,680
Speaker 3: if we've got to pay attention to it, we may

1046
00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 3: as well pay attention with some Kyle Pitts.

1047
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 2: Going with what you said, Pitts should get a lot

1048
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 2: of balls in this one. He should be peppered without London,

1049
00:50:57,160 --> 00:50:59,360
Speaker 2: especially some of the numbers I had used on the

1050
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 2: favorites earlier today. Absolutely ridiculous what Pennix and cousins have

1051
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 2: been doing targeting wide receivers not named Drake London. I

1052
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:10,800
Speaker 2: believe in those four games it's like thirteen of thirty

1053
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 2: seven in terms of catches and targets. So in this one,

1054
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:18,440
Speaker 2: I think Pits makes all the sense. A breakout week

1055
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:21,120
Speaker 2: for Kyle Pitts. Let's do it, all right, Let's keep

1056
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:24,880
Speaker 2: going here. Oh God, so I kind of told you

1057
00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:26,800
Speaker 2: a few seconds ago we weren't going to talk about

1058
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:29,919
Speaker 2: Browns and Raiders. I made the mistake because it wasn't

1059
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:32,120
Speaker 2: the Rundown. I knew that in the back of my mind.

1060
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:38,399
Speaker 2: But the Super Bowl also known as Chador's debut. This

1061
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 2: is a real interesting ones because I was looking through

1062
00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:43,880
Speaker 2: DraftKings before trying to come up with a few props,

1063
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:46,600
Speaker 2: a few ways to play this. It's early since we

1064
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:50,279
Speaker 2: record this at about six pm on Thursday, so the

1065
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:53,240
Speaker 2: question is is what's available and how can we attack

1066
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:55,720
Speaker 2: shaudors start? Because I think we both like the same angles.

1067
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think everyone out there is talking

1068
00:51:58,440 --> 00:51:59,840
Speaker 3: about how can we Fage should ear?

1069
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 1: How do we do it?

1070
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 3: And I don't want to do it with Raiders minus four,

1071
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 3: Like that's just a hilarious line. I basically zero out

1072
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,719
Speaker 3: Shuitar Sanders as a quarterback value and I still have

1073
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 3: the Browns favorite. I can't talk myself into Raiders minus four,

1074
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:15,920
Speaker 3: even if that's right. I think the way you want

1075
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:18,280
Speaker 3: to do this is we might not get if Shadder

1076
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 3: is as bad as so many people think that he

1077
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,080
Speaker 3: may be, and we'll get to it. Then you have

1078
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 3: to be aggressive and you might not get to bet

1079
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:27,400
Speaker 3: this too many times, and you've got to bet aggressively.

1080
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 3: So we took the under on the hot rate under

1081
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:32,800
Speaker 3: thirty seven and a half. Both defenses are the Bandage

1082
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 3: Raiders tenth top ten defense DVAA last six games, even

1083
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:40,759
Speaker 3: after the Dallas game. So look, should Sanders Brown's you

1084
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,600
Speaker 3: had some of these stats in your article nineteen ninety

1085
00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:46,439
Speaker 3: nine when they returned as a franchise. This is now

1086
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:49,800
Speaker 3: the eighteenth quarterback making his first career start, oh and

1087
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 3: seventeen for the first set of guys, So not a

1088
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:56,719
Speaker 3: great start. I really really wanted to go contrari and

1089
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 3: just take Brown's money line here. There's no way I

1090
00:52:59,680 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 3: can't be on Shooter Sanders. Forty two quarterbacks starting in

1091
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:05,839
Speaker 3: that stretch, I think he might be one of the worst.

1092
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:10,520
Speaker 3: So including the preseason, Wow, fifty nine dropbacks on twenty drives,

1093
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:15,240
Speaker 3: thirty one pressures out of fifty nine dropbacks, nine sacks.

1094
00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:18,279
Speaker 3: So here are the numbers. Fifty three percent pressure rate,

1095
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 3: twenty nine percent sacked to pressure, fifteen percent sack rate.

1096
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:26,360
Speaker 3: Because the dude holds the ball so long. In the preseason,

1097
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:29,239
Speaker 3: he was almost four seconds time to throw. We have

1098
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:31,080
Speaker 3: quarterbacks getting it out in like two and a half.

1099
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:33,719
Speaker 3: That is nearly double that he was three point two

1100
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:36,520
Speaker 3: seconds to throw on Sunday. His line right now is

1101
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:39,680
Speaker 3: twenty eight and a half attempts. At those numbers that

1102
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 3: I just gave out the different rates that would imply

1103
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:45,480
Speaker 3: at least five sacks that honestly, that feels low like

1104
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:47,399
Speaker 3: that he might get broken in a half the way

1105
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:49,040
Speaker 3: that the sacks are going to pile up in this game.

1106
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 3: So I want sacks above everything else. I want sacks

1107
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:54,760
Speaker 3: in this game. But there's not a lot of lines

1108
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:58,279
Speaker 3: up yet as we record this. So Gino he's gonna

1109
00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 3: get some sacks too. He's been sacked at least four

1110
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 3: times and half the games. Miles Garrett has a four

1111
00:54:03,640 --> 00:54:06,279
Speaker 3: sack and a five sack game in the last three

1112
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 3: weeks alone, So I think we get sacks both ways.

1113
00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:09,359
Speaker 1: I'll tell you this.

1114
00:54:10,040 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 3: Just keep in mind the record in NFL history for

1115
00:54:13,640 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 3: sacks in a game is eighteen and nineteen seventy eight

1116
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:17,440
Speaker 3: by the Packers and Chargers.

1117
00:54:17,680 --> 00:54:18,759
Speaker 1: I think you know how I feel.

1118
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:21,080
Speaker 3: If I'm looking up the record for sacks in the game,

1119
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 3: I just think we're getting sacks every direction here. Usually

1120
00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:29,440
Speaker 3: some books, I believe DraftKings posts like over two and

1121
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:32,600
Speaker 3: a half, over three and a half, Brown sacks, Raiders sacks.

1122
00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 3: Gave me that for the Raiders because I think we're

1123
00:54:35,120 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 3: gonna get some sacks of sugar. I love like an

1124
00:54:37,719 --> 00:54:39,640
Speaker 3: escalator there. I don't think we'll find that one, but

1125
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:42,920
Speaker 3: like a five plus escalator. On the sacks, I do

1126
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:45,160
Speaker 3: think we'll be able to bet Max Crosby.

1127
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:45,279
Speaker 1: To get a sack.

1128
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:48,359
Speaker 3: So that's that's my official bet here. Crosby has at

1129
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:50,760
Speaker 3: least one sack in a five of ten games this season.

1130
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:52,960
Speaker 3: His last time with the line was a quarter of

1131
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:55,160
Speaker 3: a sack. We're not getting that against Schugdar. They're too

1132
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 3: smart to.

1133
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:55,960
Speaker 1: Give us that.

1134
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:58,600
Speaker 3: But I'll take a sack for him. And then again,

1135
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 3: I think if you want it against Shoulder, if you

1136
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:03,279
Speaker 3: really think he's as bad as I'm making him sound,

1137
00:55:03,360 --> 00:55:05,400
Speaker 3: and I think he's that bad, you got to go

1138
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 3: beg So I got DraftKings Raiders first sack minus one

1139
00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 3: twenty five. No thanks, like Miles Garrett could just get

1140
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:14,040
Speaker 3: a sack if the Raiders get the ball first, and

1141
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 3: now we're cooked there. Brown's ten points or less plus

1142
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:20,399
Speaker 3: two ten at DraftKings not that aggressive enough, Like, if

1143
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:22,880
Speaker 3: it's bad, I want it to be really bad. So

1144
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:24,719
Speaker 3: here's a few more for you, just to kind of

1145
00:55:24,760 --> 00:55:28,720
Speaker 3: sprinkle some fun. At DraftKings under seven and a half

1146
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:32,480
Speaker 3: Browns points plus four forty you can bet no touchdowns.

1147
00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:35,040
Speaker 3: That's four to one. We're not getting three field goals

1148
00:55:35,080 --> 00:55:36,719
Speaker 3: from the Browns. If we're right about this, I'll just

1149
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:38,880
Speaker 3: take the under seven and a half plus four forty

1150
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 3: Brown's shutout zero points and be sure to bet zero

1151
00:55:42,600 --> 00:55:45,600
Speaker 3: points because just in case we get a zero zero time,

1152
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:47,960
Speaker 3: not losing my bet on that thing. So not a

1153
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:51,799
Speaker 3: shutout win, just Brown zero twenty eight to one. And

1154
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:55,560
Speaker 3: then couldn't you just see like a punt into you know,

1155
00:55:55,800 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 3: deep into the red zone area or whatever we call

1156
00:55:58,040 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 3: that on a punt and a Raiders safety is like

1157
00:56:00,600 --> 00:56:03,120
Speaker 3: scrambling a thousand yards backwards running out of the end

1158
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:06,759
Speaker 3: zone or something stupid seventeen to one at DraftKings for

1159
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:10,560
Speaker 3: a Raiders' safety. Look, this is just some fun Hayter

1160
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 3: Aide long shots. We all know that we're gonna have

1161
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 3: to talk about this game on every show, every podcast.

1162
00:56:16,440 --> 00:56:17,480
Speaker 1: We're talking about it.

1163
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 3: I'm sure Evan on Sunday Night we will be the

1164
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:22,319
Speaker 3: talking heads complaining about talking about the game, and it's

1165
00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:25,359
Speaker 3: gonna be about Shodar and I'm fading him. So have

1166
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 3: some fun, play some crazy long shots. Those are the

1167
00:56:27,719 --> 00:56:28,719
Speaker 3: ones I came up with.

1168
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 2: It's called the colf In corner. I believe that would

1169
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:33,760
Speaker 2: be like a term in terms of the good punt.

1170
00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:36,399
Speaker 2: I really hope it doesn't lead the show. God can

1171
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 2: only hope. I will say this. So last week, shador

1172
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:42,640
Speaker 2: twenty one dropbacks. He was pressured on ten of them.

1173
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:45,040
Speaker 2: What I thought was kind of interesting. He scrambled three

1174
00:56:45,080 --> 00:56:48,360
Speaker 2: times on those ten pressures, so getting out of the

1175
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:52,000
Speaker 2: pocket usually more of a statue doesn't usually run a ton.

1176
00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:54,799
Speaker 2: His line this week so we had sixteen rush yards.

1177
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:56,920
Speaker 2: His line this week is twenty and a half rush yards.

1178
00:56:57,160 --> 00:57:00,480
Speaker 2: The thing that I find kind of interesting. Five plus

1179
00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:03,799
Speaker 2: is plus one twelve in the first quarter, so you're

1180
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:07,279
Speaker 2: gonna get at least maybe two drives. You're definitely gonna

1181
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:09,360
Speaker 2: get one drive. You're gonna get a bunch of a

1182
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:12,320
Speaker 2: bunch of pressures there. So I think that's an option

1183
00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:14,399
Speaker 2: if you think it's gonna go that route. The other

1184
00:57:14,480 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 2: two lines that are up currently, it's plus two eighty

1185
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:21,120
Speaker 2: three on DraftKings to get sacked on the first drive

1186
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:24,200
Speaker 2: for Cleveland, so you're gonna get a few opportunities there,

1187
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:27,240
Speaker 2: and plus one sixty three for a three and out,

1188
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:31,520
Speaker 2: where basically three plays goodbye punt the ball plus one

1189
00:57:31,560 --> 00:57:34,800
Speaker 2: sixty three. Believe punt is up to minus one forty

1190
00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 2: on that first drive, which to me is a little crazy.

1191
00:57:38,960 --> 00:57:41,160
Speaker 2: But I think that two eighty three on the sack

1192
00:57:41,680 --> 00:57:45,439
Speaker 2: probably the more interesting one. And then depending on how

1193
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 2: you believe the pressure will get to him, Like I

1194
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 2: never thought Shador would be a runner, twenty and a

1195
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:53,680
Speaker 2: half sounds intriguing, but if he had sixteen on twenty

1196
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:56,640
Speaker 2: one dropbacks, uh, twenty is gonna be easy to get

1197
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 2: if he survives the whole game. The only other thing

1198
00:57:59,720 --> 00:58:02,800
Speaker 2: else time about Shador when you're looking at his pass

1199
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:05,280
Speaker 2: charge from last week, the thing that really had me

1200
00:58:05,360 --> 00:58:07,800
Speaker 2: at least a little worried. He was zero for four

1201
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:10,800
Speaker 2: and I looked at those four throws myself throwing to

1202
00:58:10,880 --> 00:58:13,920
Speaker 2: the left. So basically he's a right handed quarterback looking

1203
00:58:13,960 --> 00:58:16,120
Speaker 2: center and right when he had to turn. He made

1204
00:58:16,200 --> 00:58:19,200
Speaker 2: no completions last week, so we'll see how that goes

1205
00:58:19,240 --> 00:58:22,680
Speaker 2: with like a larger sample size. But obviously that's a

1206
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:25,280
Speaker 2: little bit worrying. And it also seemed like the non

1207
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:30,400
Speaker 2: play action plays dreadful. Three of thirteen three point three

1208
00:58:30,480 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 2: seconds to throw nine of ten of those were pressured

1209
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:37,400
Speaker 2: on non play action, so we'll get a bigger sample

1210
00:58:37,480 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 2: size this week. But I think there's a few things

1211
00:58:39,200 --> 00:58:42,520
Speaker 2: there that are a little worrisome, especially with the the

1212
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:46,240
Speaker 2: Raiders are really good on the defensive line compared to

1213
00:58:46,280 --> 00:58:48,360
Speaker 2: like the secondary. We're gonna have to see if Shador

1214
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:51,600
Speaker 2: can actually get into the secondary, so that will be

1215
00:58:51,680 --> 00:58:53,880
Speaker 2: how we look. There'll definitely be a lot more props

1216
00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:56,919
Speaker 2: obviously as we get closer, but those are some olier looks.

1217
00:58:57,000 --> 00:59:00,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, and be aware there are I'm noticing a lot

1218
00:59:00,720 --> 00:59:04,200
Speaker 3: of individual Schauder props that are not typically available in

1219
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 3: most games, like that are not available for just a

1220
00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:09,760
Speaker 3: standard quarterback because of the buzz. This is getting to

1221
00:59:09,880 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 3: me like as an NBA podcaster as well, those week

1222
00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:16,680
Speaker 3: of Bronnie James props, Like remember if Bronni was there

1223
00:59:16,720 --> 00:59:19,640
Speaker 3: and I was like, oh, Bronnie, just notice that they're

1224
00:59:19,680 --> 00:59:22,840
Speaker 3: all overs. They're only overs posting for all the sugar

1225
00:59:23,040 --> 00:59:25,360
Speaker 3: one hundred yards in each half and ten yards in

1226
00:59:25,400 --> 00:59:29,800
Speaker 3: each quarter rushing and it's only overs. I will not

1227
00:59:29,880 --> 00:59:32,120
Speaker 3: be betting one of those. I look at the lines,

1228
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:36,040
Speaker 3: they're not good lines. I will not play those. Shudur

1229
00:59:36,240 --> 00:59:39,800
Speaker 3: props are not the way to go. Fading shugdar props

1230
00:59:39,960 --> 00:59:41,680
Speaker 3: is the way that I'm gonna play this, and if

1231
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:44,720
Speaker 3: he beats me this week, then I guess I'll move

1232
00:59:44,760 --> 00:59:47,000
Speaker 3: on after that and maybe admit that he is at

1233
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:48,560
Speaker 3: least a backup quarterback or something.

1234
00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:50,680
Speaker 1: But he's gonna have to prove it, all.

1235
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:53,200
Speaker 2: Right, is what it is. Let's be legendary this weekend.

1236
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:55,600
Speaker 2: Time for one more pick before we get to the

1237
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:56,160
Speaker 2: look ahead.

1238
00:59:56,760 --> 00:59:57,280
Speaker 1: Jets.

1239
00:59:57,680 --> 01:00:00,480
Speaker 2: Ravens, I'm gonna try to back you up here, but

1240
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:01,160
Speaker 2: what are you doing?

1241
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:07,120
Speaker 3: Give me the Jets, Jets. Give me the Jets money

1242
01:00:07,160 --> 01:00:11,200
Speaker 3: line plus nine hundred. All right, We've been red hot

1243
01:00:11,240 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 3: on our upset picks for like a month. I think

1244
01:00:13,120 --> 01:00:15,480
Speaker 3: this is probably where it ends. But we had to

1245
01:00:15,520 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 3: do another long shot after upsets and the crazy long

1246
01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:22,680
Speaker 3: shots last week, and honestly, almost any underdog in this range,

1247
01:00:22,680 --> 01:00:24,760
Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna sprinkle if I can make any case

1248
01:00:24,800 --> 01:00:27,000
Speaker 3: at all, and I can kind of make a case here.

1249
01:00:27,080 --> 01:00:30,320
Speaker 3: So we already know about the Ravens. What's the case

1250
01:00:30,320 --> 01:00:33,320
Speaker 3: for the Jets. Somebody feels off about the Ravens to me,

1251
01:00:33,480 --> 01:00:35,480
Speaker 3: Like I know, we want it to just be like, oh,

1252
01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:38,480
Speaker 3: they're healthy and back, everything's fine again. They don't really

1253
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:40,920
Speaker 3: feel like the Ravens and Lamar keeps popping on the

1254
01:00:40,920 --> 01:00:44,760
Speaker 3: injury report ankle this week, hamstring last week. They're not

1255
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 3: running the ball that well compared to what they have

1256
01:00:47,640 --> 01:00:50,040
Speaker 3: in the pass, and the Jets run defense is pretty solid,

1257
01:00:50,120 --> 01:00:52,560
Speaker 3: so I think they can slow down Henry somewhat. And

1258
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:56,760
Speaker 3: really the big mismatch should be Ravens passing against the

1259
01:00:56,840 --> 01:01:00,640
Speaker 3: number thirty one pass defense that remember trade Aways Gardner

1260
01:01:00,680 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 3: and should be pretty terrible.

1261
01:01:02,280 --> 01:01:02,880
Speaker 1: Right now.

1262
01:01:03,640 --> 01:01:06,920
Speaker 3: The Ravens aren't punishing teams by pass like the Ravens

1263
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:09,160
Speaker 3: of last year. Are not what they're playing right now,

1264
01:01:09,160 --> 01:01:12,200
Speaker 3: and the Jets are effects to arrest from Thursday night.

1265
01:01:12,520 --> 01:01:15,040
Speaker 3: The Jets get Tyrod Taylor, who is an upgrade to

1266
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:17,920
Speaker 3: a real quarterback that can actually throw the ball, and

1267
01:01:17,960 --> 01:01:20,960
Speaker 3: it's a revenge spot for Tyred Taylor as well. Jets

1268
01:01:21,040 --> 01:01:24,400
Speaker 3: offense has been way better on the road, dead last

1269
01:01:24,440 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 3: at home eleventh by DVA on the road. The Ravens

1270
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:30,440
Speaker 3: have not been good at home this season now, mostly

1271
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:32,240
Speaker 3: I think because Lamar missed three home games.

1272
01:01:32,280 --> 01:01:33,280
Speaker 1: I don't make too much of.

1273
01:01:33,240 --> 01:01:36,960
Speaker 3: That, but I just feel like we talked about Seahawks

1274
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 3: Titans and this kind of that being a somewhat ugly

1275
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 3: sort of game. I think I see something similar to here,

1276
01:01:43,200 --> 01:01:45,640
Speaker 3: but the Jets having a real chot to get over

1277
01:01:45,680 --> 01:01:48,760
Speaker 3: the line. Ravens first three games a season thirty seven

1278
01:01:48,800 --> 01:01:52,080
Speaker 3: points a game. Since then twenty points a game, so

1279
01:01:52,280 --> 01:01:55,280
Speaker 3: almost half of that. The Jets have been within one

1280
01:01:55,320 --> 01:01:57,440
Speaker 3: score in the fourth quarter eight out of ten games,

1281
01:01:57,520 --> 01:02:01,200
Speaker 3: so they've hung around Tyrod more than a touchdown. Under

1282
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:05,120
Speaker 3: his career six and three ats, he's won outright as eight,

1283
01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 3: eight and a half and ten point underdogs. And then

1284
01:02:07,840 --> 01:02:09,880
Speaker 3: here's the stat that caught me on the first place,

1285
01:02:09,880 --> 01:02:11,600
Speaker 3: and why I'm always going to play a plus nine

1286
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:15,840
Speaker 3: hundred moneyland underdogs of between plus seven to fifty and

1287
01:02:15,880 --> 01:02:19,400
Speaker 3: one thousand. Since twenty eighteen, they're four and fifteen straight up,

1288
01:02:19,400 --> 01:02:22,440
Speaker 3: which doesn't seem great, but four and fifteen is about

1289
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:25,360
Speaker 3: once every five times. This is nine to one, and

1290
01:02:25,440 --> 01:02:27,760
Speaker 3: do shop around because I see it as low as

1291
01:02:27,920 --> 01:02:30,920
Speaker 3: six to one at some books. That's almost like fifty

1292
01:02:30,920 --> 01:02:33,920
Speaker 3: percent extra payout for us. And when the long shot

1293
01:02:33,960 --> 01:02:37,640
Speaker 3: gets long, it just can't quite catch up to like, oh,

1294
01:02:37,760 --> 01:02:40,240
Speaker 3: the Jets are one percent less likely to win. Okay, well,

1295
01:02:40,240 --> 01:02:43,320
Speaker 3: that totally shifted the long shot odds. That's the play.

1296
01:02:43,920 --> 01:02:46,640
Speaker 3: We maybe get a blowout here, that's the most likely result.

1297
01:02:46,880 --> 01:02:50,320
Speaker 3: I'm hoping for, like a seventeen to sixteen Jets mess

1298
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:53,600
Speaker 3: of a game that leads our rundown on Sunday night,

1299
01:02:53,680 --> 01:02:56,280
Speaker 3: because how did the Ravens blow this one and ruin

1300
01:02:56,320 --> 01:03:00,440
Speaker 3: the season? Jets plus nine hundred money line, go one

1301
01:03:00,480 --> 01:03:02,120
Speaker 3: more underdog and see if we can hit up.

1302
01:03:02,760 --> 01:03:04,240
Speaker 2: All right, So I'll give you the good news and

1303
01:03:04,280 --> 01:03:06,600
Speaker 2: then I'll give you the bad news. The good news

1304
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 2: is Jets are double digit dogs back to back games.

1305
01:03:11,000 --> 01:03:14,600
Speaker 2: It's a good trend. Seventy one and forty four against

1306
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:17,680
Speaker 2: the spread, sixty two percent double digit dogs, and back

1307
01:03:17,720 --> 01:03:21,080
Speaker 2: to back games on that second leg. So basically your

1308
01:03:21,160 --> 01:03:23,640
Speaker 2: shit in the first one, we made you a double dog,

1309
01:03:23,240 --> 01:03:26,960
Speaker 2: double digited dog. Again, the line was inflated. Congratulations, you

1310
01:03:27,040 --> 01:03:30,040
Speaker 2: covered the good news of those games. You got twenty

1311
01:03:30,080 --> 01:03:33,520
Speaker 2: outright wins. Okay, so that's seventeen percent And like you

1312
01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:38,120
Speaker 2: were talking about, sounds crappy. Really isn't eleven point five percent? ROI?

1313
01:03:38,240 --> 01:03:40,400
Speaker 2: That seems nice. So that's the good news. The good

1314
01:03:40,480 --> 01:03:44,360
Speaker 2: news is like in history, the spots decent. The bad

1315
01:03:44,400 --> 01:03:47,600
Speaker 2: news is you're trying to make history. John Harbaugh thirty

1316
01:03:47,680 --> 01:03:50,400
Speaker 2: one to oh as a favorite of above ten points

1317
01:03:50,440 --> 01:03:53,640
Speaker 2: in his career. So this is gonna be amazing because

1318
01:03:53,640 --> 01:03:55,120
Speaker 2: we're gonna get you and I do a lot of

1319
01:03:55,120 --> 01:03:58,479
Speaker 2: pods together. We're gonna jump on thirty one in one

1320
01:03:58,840 --> 01:04:02,280
Speaker 2: Jets of money line. Taylor doesn't turn it over. They

1321
01:04:02,320 --> 01:04:06,760
Speaker 2: win the game seventeen fourteen on a forty seven yard

1322
01:04:06,760 --> 01:04:11,040
Speaker 2: field goal to shock the world. Can't wait, Jets money line.

1323
01:04:11,080 --> 01:04:13,400
Speaker 2: It'll get up to one thousand, It'll sit right under that.

1324
01:04:13,480 --> 01:04:17,200
Speaker 2: Your statle work, my statle work. And that's what I'll

1325
01:04:17,240 --> 01:04:19,160
Speaker 2: be tweeting it. I'll be tweeting. You'll see it come

1326
01:04:19,200 --> 01:04:22,000
Speaker 2: from my feed. Thirty one and one John Harbaugh and

1327
01:04:22,400 --> 01:04:24,600
Speaker 2: Brandon Mander some would have done it again. All right,

1328
01:04:24,680 --> 01:04:28,440
Speaker 2: let's get to your look ahead, let's talk ahead.

1329
01:04:28,680 --> 01:04:29,360
Speaker 1: Just give it a shot.

1330
01:04:29,440 --> 01:04:30,680
Speaker 2: How about next week?

1331
01:04:31,160 --> 01:04:35,160
Speaker 1: Heck gout MA sap my.

1332
01:04:35,240 --> 01:04:40,200
Speaker 2: Mind SA Week thirteen, we are coming down to the wire.

1333
01:04:40,280 --> 01:04:43,560
Speaker 2: Week thirteen, lucky thirteen. Last week you had the Lions

1334
01:04:43,600 --> 01:04:47,439
Speaker 2: minus nine and a half. This week Thanksgiving question mark.

1335
01:04:48,440 --> 01:04:51,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, the time honored tradition of betting against the Cowboys

1336
01:04:51,760 --> 01:04:52,920
Speaker 3: on Thanksgiving let's.

1337
01:04:52,840 --> 01:04:53,640
Speaker 1: Keep it very easy.

1338
01:04:53,640 --> 01:04:56,960
Speaker 3: We are paid the Cowboys bet the Chiefs Chiefs minus

1339
01:04:56,960 --> 01:05:00,280
Speaker 3: three and a half. Since twenty eleven, Dallas is three

1340
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:04,080
Speaker 3: and eleven against the spread on Thanksgiving, twenty one percent

1341
01:05:04,160 --> 01:05:07,880
Speaker 3: cover rate. Just bat against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. To me,

1342
01:05:08,400 --> 01:05:10,800
Speaker 3: Thanksgiving is a lot about trends as far as it better.

1343
01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 3: So we'll come back next week. Our podcast, I think,

1344
01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:15,680
Speaker 3: will be up early for Thanksgiving so you'll be able

1345
01:05:15,680 --> 01:05:18,479
Speaker 3: to hear it. I'm heavy trends on Thanksgiving. My pick

1346
01:05:18,520 --> 01:05:21,440
Speaker 3: six will be very Thanksgiving flavored. That will be up

1347
01:05:21,480 --> 01:05:23,200
Speaker 3: early in the week. Everything will be up for you

1348
01:05:23,240 --> 01:05:25,200
Speaker 3: next week here on the feed, so be sure to

1349
01:05:25,280 --> 01:05:28,760
Speaker 3: check that out. And Thanksgiving, you want any favorite, as

1350
01:05:28,800 --> 01:05:31,960
Speaker 3: long as it's not Dallas thirty one and eleven ats

1351
01:05:32,000 --> 01:05:35,280
Speaker 3: last couple decades, seventy four percent for all non Cowboys

1352
01:05:35,320 --> 01:05:38,440
Speaker 3: favorites on a Turkey Day. Even better if they are

1353
01:05:38,480 --> 01:05:41,840
Speaker 3: public favorites. I can't imagine anything but that here. The

1354
01:05:41,920 --> 01:05:45,480
Speaker 3: Chiefs either will be confidence restored after beating the Colts,

1355
01:05:45,880 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 3: or they'll be five and six backs against the wall.

1356
01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,960
Speaker 3: They gotta win on Thanksgiving. Like either way, the public's

1357
01:05:50,960 --> 01:05:55,320
Speaker 3: betting the Chiefs. Public favorites on Thanksgiving seventy nine percent ats.

1358
01:05:55,640 --> 01:05:57,880
Speaker 3: So I just like the Chiefs here. I'm gonna like

1359
01:05:57,920 --> 01:06:00,440
Speaker 3: it pretty much no matter what, as long as pad out.

1360
01:06:00,480 --> 01:06:02,919
Speaker 3: There lots of talk this week about are the five

1361
01:06:02,920 --> 01:06:04,800
Speaker 3: and five Chiefs better than last year's team?

1362
01:06:05,200 --> 01:06:06,160
Speaker 1: They would be ten to know.

1363
01:06:06,200 --> 01:06:08,520
Speaker 3: If you flip the one score games, all their wins

1364
01:06:08,560 --> 01:06:10,800
Speaker 3: are by thirteen or more. So I'm gonna grab the

1365
01:06:10,840 --> 01:06:15,400
Speaker 3: line now, the Chiefs are clearly better offensively, clearly better defensively.

1366
01:06:15,720 --> 01:06:16,880
Speaker 1: It's Mahomes, It's Amy.

1367
01:06:16,920 --> 01:06:20,640
Speaker 3: It's a big spot on you know everyone's watching on Thanksgiving.

1368
01:06:20,920 --> 01:06:22,960
Speaker 3: We all know how Mahomes plays when everyone's watching the

1369
01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:25,880
Speaker 3: big holiday spot Now the one hesitation, and I'm gonna

1370
01:06:25,880 --> 01:06:27,480
Speaker 3: answer what you probably should be asking.

1371
01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:29,160
Speaker 1: Should we wait? Could we get.

1372
01:06:29,080 --> 01:06:31,880
Speaker 3: Chiefs below three? What if the Chiefs lose to the Colts?

1373
01:06:32,120 --> 01:06:34,080
Speaker 3: What if Dallas does win? I like them to win

1374
01:06:34,160 --> 01:06:37,480
Speaker 3: this week, shouldn't I wait? I don't know, man, Are

1375
01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:41,240
Speaker 3: we getting Chiefs under three on Thanksgiving? They're gonna take

1376
01:06:41,360 --> 01:06:43,520
Speaker 3: every dollar in the world if we they give out

1377
01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:45,960
Speaker 3: Chiefs under three against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving?

1378
01:06:46,360 --> 01:06:47,200
Speaker 1: I can't see it.

1379
01:06:47,200 --> 01:06:50,000
Speaker 3: It's already four and a half a couple of books elsewhere.

1380
01:06:50,360 --> 01:06:52,040
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the three and a half. I don't

1381
01:06:52,040 --> 01:06:53,840
Speaker 3: even think we're gonna get the three. I don't think

1382
01:06:53,880 --> 01:06:55,440
Speaker 3: we're gonna need the three either. I think the Chiefs

1383
01:06:55,520 --> 01:06:58,160
Speaker 3: win with some amount of comfort and finally get a

1384
01:06:58,200 --> 01:07:00,720
Speaker 3: decent win. You know, it's what we do on Thanksgiving,

1385
01:07:00,760 --> 01:07:03,680
Speaker 3: wed some turkey and we watched the Cowboys upset and

1386
01:07:03,960 --> 01:07:06,160
Speaker 3: lose again like usual and fail to cover the spread.

1387
01:07:06,240 --> 01:07:09,560
Speaker 3: So Chiefs minus three and a half on Thanksgiving. We'll

1388
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:13,440
Speaker 3: come back for more lots of Thanksgiving tweets and picks

1389
01:07:13,440 --> 01:07:14,880
Speaker 3: to come on next week's podcasts.

1390
01:07:15,560 --> 01:07:17,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna mention that's creeping up right now

1391
01:07:18,000 --> 01:07:20,440
Speaker 2: for four and a half, So I see actually the

1392
01:07:20,480 --> 01:07:22,240
Speaker 2: number three and a half, four and four and a half,

1393
01:07:22,280 --> 01:07:24,800
Speaker 2: So definitely find the best number there. In terms of

1394
01:07:24,840 --> 01:07:27,880
Speaker 2: my content, I'll actually have the primer live for Thanksgiving

1395
01:07:27,880 --> 01:07:31,120
Speaker 2: probably Sunday night after our podcast, so all the favorites,

1396
01:07:31,160 --> 01:07:33,360
Speaker 2: all the public size, all that good stuff will be

1397
01:07:33,600 --> 01:07:37,120
Speaker 2: in there for you by Monday morning. So definitely go

1398
01:07:37,160 --> 01:07:38,800
Speaker 2: on and check that out. And that'll do it here

1399
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:41,160
Speaker 2: on the Action Every Podcast for our Week twelve Best

1400
01:07:41,160 --> 01:07:44,960
Speaker 2: Bets episode presented by DraftKings. If you want instant notifications

1401
01:07:44,960 --> 01:07:47,840
Speaker 2: when Action experts track their bets, go to actioneer dot

1402
01:07:47,880 --> 01:07:50,480
Speaker 2: com slash bro And if you haven't yet, please make

1403
01:07:50,520 --> 01:07:53,080
Speaker 2: sure to check out our new AI quick slipbot on

1404
01:07:53,400 --> 01:07:57,280
Speaker 2: x justag tag playbook at playbook tell to grab whatever

1405
01:07:57,280 --> 01:07:59,440
Speaker 2: bet you're looking for and it'll create a quick slip

1406
01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:01,320
Speaker 2: link for you in a matter of seconds. And again,

1407
01:08:01,680 --> 01:08:03,280
Speaker 2: if you want to tail some of the bets we

1408
01:08:03,320 --> 01:08:05,040
Speaker 2: gave out today, make sure to look for the quick

1409
01:08:05,040 --> 01:08:07,960
Speaker 2: slip link in the podcast and video description or go

1410
01:08:08,040 --> 01:08:11,040
Speaker 2: to action art dot com slash bet Now. All the

1411
01:08:11,040 --> 01:08:13,560
Speaker 2: bets will be listed there. Simply just click them. They

1412
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:17,880
Speaker 2: open up in the operators app. Super super easy. We'll

1413
01:08:17,920 --> 01:08:21,000
Speaker 2: be back on Sunday night for our NFL recap show

1414
01:08:21,240 --> 01:08:24,200
Speaker 2: that'll be live on Action howk YouTube page shortly after

1415
01:08:24,240 --> 01:08:28,200
Speaker 2: Sunday Night Football, where we will talk only Shador Sanders.

1416
01:08:28,200 --> 01:08:30,840
Speaker 2: That's a joke. Thank you for listening, enjoy the slay,

1417
01:08:31,080 --> 01:08:33,639
Speaker 2: Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Let's get

1418
01:08:33,720 --> 01:08:54,280
Speaker 2: a bunch. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1419
01:08:54,320 --> 01:08:56,920
Speaker 2: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1420
01:08:57,200 --> 01:08:59,760
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1421
01:08:59,760 --> 01:09:00,679
Speaker 2: ton Tred Gambler