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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets.

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Speaker 2: It is me, Joey Paid Joe Pizzapia, and today it's

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Speaker 2: time to look ahead to Week fourteen in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: and I, for one and very happy to bury Week

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Speaker 2: thirteen into a deep dark grave and never speak of

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Speaker 2: it again.

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Speaker 1: My worst week of betting in the NFL season this year.

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Speaker 1: I hated it. It was terrible. I know Pat Fitzmorris

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Speaker 1: wasn't too pleased with it either, But can you see

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Speaker 1: the grin on YouTube for Matthew Friedman because he was

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Speaker 1: obviously on the opposite of a lot of things we

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Speaker 1: were on, so he is happy. Two of us are miserable,

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Speaker 1: So that means we look ahead. But of course we're

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Speaker 1: gonna hit money night football as well, gentlemen. A lot

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Speaker 1: of injuries racking up, we have a lot of buys

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Speaker 1: this week to a weird confluence of events. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: break down and see we can find any early value

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Speaker 1: with any of them. But before we do, want to

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Speaker 1: remind everybody we are brought to you by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: the King of sportsbooks. Download the bet MGM app right

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Speaker 1: now before you do anything else. And start your wagering

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Speaker 1: there with us over at betting pros and gentlemen, tonight,

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Speaker 1: we have a game that we've seen historically has not

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Speaker 1: really gone well for one Tom Brady. Yet still at home,

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are three point favorites to

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Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints right now. The number is forty

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Speaker 1: one plus one. Forty five is the number if you

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Speaker 1: like the Saints to upset Tom Brady. And I know

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Speaker 1: it's been a rough sled for the New Orleans Saints

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two. But Matthew Friedman, since you're the

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Speaker 1: one in a good mood this morning, let's start with

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Speaker 1: you on this one. Do you see any value left

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Speaker 1: in this line? Because I know there was some value,

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Speaker 1: but it seemed to slip through your fingers.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a week ago when we talked about it, this

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Speaker 3: line was six. I bet it. Then more on that

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Speaker 3: I am forgot to put it in the app but whatever,

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Speaker 3: and then they hung around for three and a half

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Speaker 3: for a while. But I'm just protected at two point

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Speaker 3: seventy five, so I'm not really seeing any value at three.

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Speaker 3: If I had to take a side, it would still

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Speaker 3: be on the Saints and then also, I had the

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Speaker 3: under at forty two and a half the line there

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Speaker 3: is now forty one. I'm not really seeing any value there,

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Speaker 3: but if I had to take it, I would take

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Speaker 3: the under, all right.

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Speaker 1: Fits. When you look at this game real quick on

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Speaker 1: Monday night, is there anything that stands out to you,

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Speaker 1: anything you want to go after?

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Speaker 4: Not either side, Joe, I'm a little tempted to take

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Speaker 4: the under. I mean, the Saints are getting Marshaun Lattimore back.

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Speaker 4: He has been kryptonite for Mike Evans for years now.

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Speaker 4: And really, Dennis Allen, the Saints' head coach and former

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Speaker 4: defensive coordinator, has kind of had Tom Brady's number since

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Speaker 4: Brady entered the NFC South. So I kind of like

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Speaker 4: the under a little bit here, But you referenced it, Joe.

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Speaker 4: This past week in a betting was so bad. Do

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Speaker 4: I try to, like Chase after some of the losses?

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Speaker 4: Do I just sit on my couch and tighten my

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Speaker 4: tourniquit and you know, so I don't bleed out after

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Speaker 4: this past experience.

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Speaker 1: Fits, I tried to do that in the four o'clock hour.

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Speaker 1: It did not go well. So I think you just

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Speaker 1: put this one out. You take some time, you put

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Speaker 1: your phone far far away from you, so you're not

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Speaker 1: any temptations any in game betting tonight, and you just let

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Speaker 1: it ride, and you let Week thirteen die a slow,

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Speaker 1: painful death because that show I wanted to do.

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Speaker 3: I agree, I mean to disagree just a little bit.

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Speaker 3: I will say, I know I kind of pussy footed

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Speaker 3: around it earlier. I think actually thirty nine point sevens

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Speaker 3: what I have is the projection. So at forty one,

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Speaker 3: I still think there's value on the under.

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Speaker 5: Okay, I knew I was.

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Speaker 4: I knew I was in trouble in Week thirteen when

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Speaker 4: before Friedman and I did the Sunday live stream. Friedman

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Speaker 4: is like, we're on the opposite end at quite a

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Speaker 4: few bets this week. I should have known that. It

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Speaker 4: was the one thing we agreed on was Broncos Ravens under, so.

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Speaker 5: That was one bet that went well.

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Speaker 4: But that was like starting a game of horse and

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Speaker 4: banking in a four foot layup. They could have played

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Speaker 4: that game three times and not gone over. Then I

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Speaker 4: moved outside of fifteen feet and started firing shots and

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Speaker 4: you know, throwing up a lot of airballs, not catching

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Speaker 4: any nets on those.

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Speaker 5: So it was a tough day.

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Speaker 1: Let's turn the page to week fourteen. Before we do,

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Speaker 1: let's take a quick break in the action to tell

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Speaker 1: you about an Isaiah mackenzie signed Buffalo Bill's mini helmet

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Speaker 1: that can be yours from our friends, a prison auction.

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Speaker 1: All you have to do is subscribe to the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel. That's YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.

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Speaker 1: It's very easy, so go there, subscribe. We've got all

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Speaker 1: the podcasts on there, We've got all the live content,

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Speaker 1: the streams that Pat was talking about earlier, Monday Night Football,

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football. It's all there for you, and all

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Speaker 1: you have to do is be a subscriber. Make sure

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Speaker 1: you leave a comment on the video. That's it. That's

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Speaker 1: all you gotta do. And we're announced the winner right

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Speaker 1: here on the channel at some point, So click that

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Speaker 1: little bell till it goes ding for notifications so you

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Speaker 1: know if you're the winner. And every time a piece

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Speaker 1: of content drops here on Betting Pros. Let's skip ahead

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Speaker 1: now to week fourteen in the NFL Lots of Buys

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Speaker 1: by mcgeddin Part two. Here six teams won't be playing,

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Speaker 1: so let's talk about who is on Thursday, the Las

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Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders coming off a win, the Los Angeles Rams

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Speaker 1: coming off another loss. It's five straight I believe for

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Speaker 1: the Rams. Gross wow. But nonetheless they are of course

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Speaker 1: five and a half point underdogs at home to the

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Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders. Forty three is the number if you

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Speaker 1: like the Rams for the upset plus one eighty five.

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Speaker 1: They've been keeping it simple lately in Las Vegas. Get

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Speaker 1: the ball to Davante Adams and get out of the way.

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Speaker 1: I think this is a pretty good strategy. I like

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Speaker 1: this strategy. It seems to be working for them. So, Fitz,

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Speaker 1: what are your thoughts here on this early line we

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Speaker 1: look ahead to Thursday night football this week between the

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Speaker 1: Rams and the Raiders.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, when you've got DeVante Adams and Josh Jacobs, that

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Speaker 4: makes scheming up a game plan a little bit easier.

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Speaker 4: I would think, get the ball to those two guys

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Speaker 4: stand back.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: So the Rams are pretty much a smoldering crater at

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Speaker 4: this point in the season. And the only thing I

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Speaker 4: wonder about this game like, is Sean McVeigh too good

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Speaker 4: an offensive schemer to lay this sort of points with

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Speaker 4: a Raider team that you know, frankly I've underestimated all year,

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Speaker 4: and that seems to have its act together all of

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Speaker 4: a sudden. I just wonder if that's a little too

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Speaker 4: tall against a McVeigh team at home. Not that the

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Speaker 4: Rams have a big home field advantage, but you know,

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Speaker 4: they really hung around with Seattle yesterday in a game

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Speaker 4: that we thought would may be an easy win for Seattle.

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Speaker 5: Not so the case.

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Speaker 4: You know, the Rams didn't cinch that one until late

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Speaker 4: So I'm not really inclined to bet a side on

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Speaker 4: this one. I've pretty much got it within half a

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Speaker 4: point of the actual line, and Sam with the total, like,

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Speaker 4: I'm not too interested in betting this one either way.

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Speaker 1: Friedman, I mentioned the streak of the Rams, but I

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Speaker 1: did not mention the streak of the Raiders. They've won

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Speaker 1: three in a row. Little cardiac kids kind of action,

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Speaker 1: a little style wise, But doesn't that kind of breed

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Speaker 1: a little sense of, Hey, everything's gonna go our way

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Speaker 1: and a little bit of confidence here because the Raiders

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Speaker 1: are starting at least to get on the winning side

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Speaker 1: of things, and this is a great time to catch

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Speaker 1: the Rams. Do you think the five and a half

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Speaker 1: is the right number or do you think maybe there's

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Speaker 1: still some value here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a five and a half. If I had to

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Speaker 3: take a side, it would be the Raiders. I did

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Speaker 3: bet this at five in the look ahead market. I

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Speaker 3: have it projected early on at six right now, So

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Speaker 3: five and a half, I mean, not really anything significant.

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Speaker 3: If it down to five, maybe I would. I would

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Speaker 3: get back into it. The Rams, like for some reason,

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Speaker 3: you know, maybe it's because of McVeigh, whatever it is,

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Speaker 3: Like they took money last week, you know, and it

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Speaker 3: was the right side. And I think people are a

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Speaker 3: little bit skeptical of the Raiders. I know the market

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Speaker 3: was really on them early in the year and then

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Speaker 3: they massively disappointed in the market turned against them. So

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Speaker 3: this could be a situation where the Rams take money,

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Speaker 3: and if that happens, I would probably go back to

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Speaker 3: the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's go to the next game here, and in

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Speaker 1: division matchup a big one. Last time these two teams met,

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Speaker 1: the Jets were the upsetter and the Buffalo Bill is

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Speaker 1: the upsetee. The Bills are now nine and three, the

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Speaker 1: Jets seven to five. And if you're dropping a game

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Speaker 1: in Minnesota yesterday a very close one. Nine and a

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Speaker 1: half is the number here. The Buffalo Bills are favored

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Speaker 1: by forty four and a half is the over under,

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Speaker 1: and then plus three forty on the money line for

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Speaker 1: the Jets if they're going to sweep the series. In

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, Friedman nine and a half a very

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Speaker 1: large number of the Jets defense very good. The Jets

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Speaker 1: were very competitive yesterday, especially towards the end, and I

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Speaker 1: think showed a lot of kutzba as they would say

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Speaker 1: that they didn't kind of fold up the tents as

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Speaker 1: the same old Jets they were in this game. They

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Speaker 1: came up short, but they did fight all the way

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Speaker 1: through Buffalo Bills. This time, I think a little bit

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Speaker 1: more prepared perhaps for the Jets. What do you think

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Speaker 1: about this number here? At any value? Early on a

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Speaker 1: week fourteen, So.

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Speaker 3: I was impressed with the Jets and what they did

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Speaker 3: last week, but you know, they still weren't able to

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Speaker 3: find the end zone. You imagine that shakes out at

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Speaker 3: some point. But that said, I still think this number

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Speaker 3: is too short, which feels weird because it's a big number.

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Speaker 3: But if you look at I don't remember exactly what

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Speaker 3: the week was, but when these teams played earlier in

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Speaker 3: Week nine, the Jets were hosting, this line was twelve

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Speaker 3: and a half and yeah, okay, that was too long,

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Speaker 3: all right, But the Bills are now at home field

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Speaker 3: and this number has dropped three points. That is too

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Speaker 3: much considering that the Bills are now like pretty healthy.

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Speaker 3: They've gotten back a lot of their key defenders. Tardavius

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Speaker 3: White is starting to play more. I have number projected

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Speaker 3: at eleven and a half. I don't think Fits is

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Speaker 3: quite there with me, but I don't think he's also

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Speaker 3: like on the other side of this bet Fits.

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Speaker 1: The last time these two teams did lock up, on

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Speaker 1: the sixth of November, it was a three point variance

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Speaker 1: between these two teams. Now we're up to nine and

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Speaker 1: a half, so still a lot of faith Buffalo at home.

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Speaker 1: I get all that, But are they Vegas not taking

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Speaker 1: the Jets defense seriously enough?

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Speaker 5: Potentially, That's kind of what I think.

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Speaker 4: And I'm actually a smidge on the other side of

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Speaker 4: this one. I've got it at nine. So whereas Friedman

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Speaker 4: thinks this is not a tall enough line, I think

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Speaker 4: it's maybe a little too tall, which makes me nervous

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Speaker 4: because you know, Friedman was right about everything in Week thirteen.

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Speaker 3: And regression is bound to strike at some point.

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Speaker 4: So, I mean, it's just like we saw the Jets

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Speaker 4: thoroughly outplay the Vikings yesterday. More on that soon, And

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Speaker 4: their offense is their offense is actually pretty legit.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 4: It's funny the Jets when they have anyone except Zach

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Speaker 4: Wilson at quarterback, apparently they become this pass happy team.

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Speaker 4: Remember them early in the season with Joe Blackout throwing

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Speaker 4: it around fifty a game, remember it?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? And how many passes did Mike White attempt yesterday,

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Speaker 4: like fifty seven or something like that.

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Speaker 5: So they've actually got.

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Speaker 4: A little bit of a punch in their running game

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Speaker 4: now with Zanovan Bam Knights. So, and maybe Robert Sala

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Speaker 4: just has the diagnosis of this Bill's offense. I mean,

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Speaker 4: maybe that's possible. Maybe the Bills just had a bad

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Speaker 4: day back in Week nine. But you know, I think

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Speaker 4: the Jets can hang around in this and cover a

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Speaker 4: fairly big number.

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Speaker 3: To fit his point really quickly, Sala, I think he's

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Speaker 3: like seven and three, seven and two against the spread indivision,

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Speaker 3: Like that's like he's pretty good.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right. By the way, fifty seven pass attempts

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Speaker 1: for Mike White yesterday, just looked it up, So who's counting?

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Speaker 1: But yeah, thirty seven. Does Zach Wilson have that many

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Speaker 1: the whole season? I got to look at that. I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure.

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Speaker 4: Funny they protected him for so long and then like

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Speaker 4: Joe Flacco or Mike White, Yeah aired out, Yeah, just

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Speaker 4: go crazy.

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Speaker 1: It's like like the kid with the learners permit, Like

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Speaker 1: they just refuse to let him get behind the wheel

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Speaker 1: and drive the car. Maybe there's a good reason. Maybe

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Speaker 1: the head bends a little too tight for Zach Wilson

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Speaker 1: willsh I'll see. The only thing uglier than my betting

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Speaker 1: world for a week thirteen was the Shawn Watson's performance.

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Speaker 1: The Cleveland Browns did come out with a w though,

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Speaker 1: thanks to the defense and the ineptitude of the Houston Texans.

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Speaker 1: So there you go. They are now five and seven.

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Speaker 1: They are four and a half point underdogs, traveling to

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati as they should be Cincinnati. Joe Burrow just taking

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Speaker 1: it to Patrick Mahomes every chance he gets. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Joe b is as cool as the other side of

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Speaker 1: the pillow. I love me some Joe Burrow. I love

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Speaker 1: Mahomes too, man, But man, Joe Burrow is just big spots. Man,

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Speaker 1: I love a guy who shows up in big spots,

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Speaker 1: and this guy always does. You hope that there's no

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00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:58,920
Speaker 1: letdown here in this game. That's the only thing you're

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Speaker 1: trying to be call. But it feels like they smell

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Speaker 1: blood in the water in this division. It feels like

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Speaker 1: with Lamar Jackson potentially out for we're not exactly sure

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Speaker 1: how long, and the way the Ravens have played lately anyway,

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00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:12,199
Speaker 1: this division is very much in play. Four and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorites at home forty eight and a half

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Speaker 1: is the number plus one to eighty three for the

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Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. But Fitz, let's talk about this here. Is

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Speaker 1: there any letdown, any concern here on this number? With

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Speaker 1: Cleveland coming to town? Do you think Joe Burrow and

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00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:27,520
Speaker 1: the Bengals understand and recognize the position they're in right now.

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Speaker 1: It's a huge win they're coming off of. Don't let

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Speaker 1: your foot off the gas, keep pressing and the division

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00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:33,600
Speaker 1: might be theirs.

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Speaker 4: Well, there's that, and here's another reason why I don't

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Speaker 4: think we're going to see a letdown. Shoe the Browns

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Speaker 4: kick the Bengals tails on Halloween Night, thirty two to

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Speaker 4: thirteen in Cleveland, and.

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Speaker 1: They have been Joe burrow'skryptonite.

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Speaker 5: They have been.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that was by far the worst the

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Speaker 4: Bengals have played all season. So I think there's gonna

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Speaker 4: be a little bit of a revenge narrative added to this.

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Speaker 4: And I just think the Browns are getting way too

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Speaker 4: much credit here, especially at seeing an offensive drop off

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Speaker 4: for them, going from Jacoby Brissett to Deshaun Watson, who

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Speaker 4: did not look very good in this first start after

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Speaker 4: looking not very good in a preseason.

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Speaker 5: Game earlier earlier in the fall.

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Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, their passing game felt more dangerous with

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Speaker 4: Jacoby Brissett. So, like, I think this line just gives

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00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:22,520
Speaker 4: them way too much credit. I've got it at six

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Speaker 4: and a half and I have already jumped on this

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Speaker 4: early line on the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: Now, last time these two teams hooked up two, Jamar

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Speaker 1: Chase not available, I believe if memory serves. So now

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Speaker 1: we're getting back to a different set of circumstances. Your Friedman, So,

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Speaker 1: in your opinion, with Jamar Chase back healthy, with Joe

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00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:42,800
Speaker 1: Burrow and company coming off a huge win, do you

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Speaker 1: see any early value here or do you see potentially

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Speaker 1: a trap like we see typically when the Browns and

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Speaker 1: Bengals square up that we end up thinking, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's the Bengals, they have the better team, and then

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Speaker 1: typically the Browns for some reason seem to have their number.

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Speaker 3: I'm with fits on this one, and I haven't projected

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Speaker 3: it five, but I know that projection doesn't take into

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Speaker 3: account the fact that I probably didn't downgrade the Browns

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Speaker 3: enough based on what they did last week because they

318
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Speaker 3: won the game. They won pretty handily, but they did

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Speaker 3: not look good. They had more to do with the

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Speaker 3: Texans being very bad instead of the Browns actually doing

321
00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:18,560
Speaker 3: anything functional at all. And the Bengals, like I've moved

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Speaker 3: them up pretty aggressively in the power ratings, but I

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00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:25,120
Speaker 3: still think there's their significant upside here. So as Fitz

324
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:27,520
Speaker 3: was talking, I went and bet this at bet MGM

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Speaker 3: sponsored the show, Yes, the King of Sportsbooks at minus

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00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:32,480
Speaker 3: four and a half.

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Speaker 1: All right, there you have it. Let's move on to

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Speaker 1: the next one here. The Dallas Cowboys. Ohoy, they figured

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Speaker 1: it out late, didn't they. What a what an offensive explosion?

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Speaker 1: Or as the end of that game a nine and three.

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00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:47,080
Speaker 1: They are now against the Houston Texans. Their Texas rival.

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Speaker 1: His number is sixteen and a half. It was the

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00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,240
Speaker 1: biggest number I've seen, and it was the biggest number

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00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:55,120
Speaker 1: all year. Gentlemen, I don't remember seeing it sixteen, since

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00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,920
Speaker 1: I think it's the biggest one. I don't remember some thirteen's,

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00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:02,280
Speaker 1: maybe a fourteen umber sixteen and a half and look

337
00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:05,640
Speaker 1: deservedly so forty five is the over under on this

338
00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:08,880
Speaker 1: one plus nine hundred. I feel like the Houston Texans

339
00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,760
Speaker 1: for the incredible upset. I do not. It's just a

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00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:14,280
Speaker 1: matter of is this number two large? Friedman? Or do

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00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:17,000
Speaker 1: you see this number potentially growing as the week goes

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00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:21,120
Speaker 1: on because Dallas defensively, offensively starting to look like a

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00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:23,680
Speaker 1: real contender here in the NFC? Do you think that

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00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:25,120
Speaker 1: the sixteen and a half stays where it is and

345
00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:26,200
Speaker 1: people should lock it in now?

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Speaker 3: So I bet it at fourteen and a half in

347
00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:31,520
Speaker 3: the look ahead market, you know it's coming shout out me,

348
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,080
Speaker 3: But sixteen and a half is right where I haven't projected.

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Speaker 3: That said, I still think it moves to seventeen because

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Speaker 3: who's gonna Cowboys money is going to come in because

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00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,200
Speaker 3: they're a public team, and who is going to want

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Speaker 3: to bet on the Texans, Like, what is the number

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00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:48,040
Speaker 3: I would have to set to make you think, all right,

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00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:50,800
Speaker 3: now I'm actually going to put money on the line

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Speaker 3: and bet on the worst team in the NFL. It

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Speaker 3: would this number would have to be above twenty to

357
00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:59,000
Speaker 3: make you think, all right, I'm doing it. So I

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Speaker 3: think it gets to seventeen, and it might go beyond seventeen.

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Speaker 1: That's one of your thoughts on this one. Obviously a

360
00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:06,680
Speaker 1: huge number, But what do you think about Week fourteen

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00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:07,560
Speaker 1: value in this game?

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Speaker 5: I just can't bet a favorite that tall in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: And I've got to readjust this like I had it

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00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,680
Speaker 4: around two touchdowns and I just have not adjusted enough

365
00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,960
Speaker 4: based I'm only sun Week thirteen. But I will point

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Speaker 4: out that the Cowboys were barely beating the Colts before

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Speaker 4: that fourth quarter, where you would feel pretty good if

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00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,480
Speaker 4: you were a cult better going into that fourth quarter

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Speaker 4: before the ruth completely caved in on your head. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I just like I on principle, do not like betting

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Speaker 4: NFL favorites at fourteen or more. Really disinterested in this game,

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Speaker 4: either betting it or watching it. Let me know what

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Speaker 4: happens on Sunday night. Yeah, I'm just kind of staying away.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break in the action to tell

375
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Speaker 1: prohibitive and promotional offers not available. In New York and

407
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:08,560
Speaker 1: now back to the action, well Fitz tease this before

408
00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,480
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings ten and two. Now they are one

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00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:16,119
Speaker 1: point favorites on the road against the Detroit Lions, who,

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00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,439
Speaker 1: you know, let's be honest, went out there offensively put

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Speaker 1: a hurt on the Jacksonville Jaguars. They are now five

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00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:23,800
Speaker 1: and seven. Things turning in a good direction for the

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00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,560
Speaker 1: Lions the last few weeks, playing very competitive games, coming

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Speaker 1: out with some w's, some heartbreaking losses too, because that's

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Speaker 1: the Lions. But this number is fifty three. Obviously, Jared

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00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:36,520
Speaker 1: Goff at home is a very different Jared Goff. We

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Speaker 1: know that, and we saw that again on display yesterday.

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Speaker 1: You did get James and Williams back of this game.

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00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,240
Speaker 1: You didn't do anything yet. It is another piece of

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Speaker 1: this puzzle. DeAndre Swift starting to look better also, this

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00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:49,800
Speaker 1: one at the money line minus one ten for either

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Speaker 1: of these teams to win, it's basically a pick him.

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Speaker 1: Last week we talked about maybe the Vikings maybe not

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Speaker 1: getting enough respect here against the Jets. So, Fitz, where's

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Speaker 1: your respect level here with the Minnesota Vikings as they

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Speaker 1: head to Detroit.

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Speaker 5: Oh it's not very high, Joe. That might surprise you.

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Speaker 4: As I've been declaring all year, and this is the

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00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:13,919
Speaker 4: crazy thing in Minnesota's last ten games. They have nine

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Speaker 4: one score wins their last ten games, nine of them

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00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:21,399
Speaker 4: have been victories by eight points or fewer. When I

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Speaker 4: projected this game on Saturday, I was originally at Minnesota

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Speaker 4: minus two and yeah, I mean I had to drop

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Speaker 4: that after yet another incredibly lucky win by the Vikings

435
00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 4: in which they were outgained by something like two hundred yards.

436
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 4: But the Jets kept shooting themselves in the foot as

437
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,840
Speaker 4: they got close to the red zone. So I mean,

438
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 4: the Vikings have this serious bend but don't break defense.

439
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 4: I mean they just keep bed bending and bending, and

440
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 4: for some reason they never break. But the trends in

441
00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:57,480
Speaker 4: this series last four games between the Lines and Vikings

442
00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:01,240
Speaker 4: to two point wins for the Viking, one two point

443
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 4: win for the Lions, one four point win for the Vikings,

444
00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,280
Speaker 4: Like this is going to be a close game, probably

445
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 4: high scoring.

446
00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:10,480
Speaker 5: Uh, I just don't want to bet this.

447
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,159
Speaker 4: I mean, you know it's right around the number and

448
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,120
Speaker 4: it's probably going to be decided inside the final two

449
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 4: minutes of the game.

450
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:20,119
Speaker 5: So yeah, Freedman.

451
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 1: Is this the same sort of thing where maybe you're

452
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,800
Speaker 1: looking for the over or you're looking for some individual

453
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,919
Speaker 1: prop value, but not necessarily on this game, since it

454
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 1: is so close, and obviously it's going to appear, at

455
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:32,680
Speaker 1: least from Vegas standpoint, to be another tight one.

456
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:36,200
Speaker 3: I mean, I think if you want the total, it's fine.

457
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:39,160
Speaker 3: It's it's already pretty high. What is it, fifty two?

458
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,199
Speaker 3: I haven't projected at fifty two and a half. I

459
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,640
Speaker 3: mean I could see moving it up to fifty three.

460
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, I can see if you're going to take

461
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 3: a position and on the total, I think you're taking

462
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,520
Speaker 3: the over. But I don't mind the Lions here. It

463
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 3: would not surprise me if this flipped and by kickoff

464
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,360
Speaker 3: the Lions are one one and a half point favorites,

465
00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,639
Speaker 3: and not that there's a massive move from you know,

466
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,480
Speaker 3: one to minus one. But I have this as a

467
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,719
Speaker 3: pick them right now. I you know, just looked at

468
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 3: it and the look at market saw it was wrong.

469
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:11,639
Speaker 3: Betted at plus three. I still see value on the

470
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 3: Lions here, even at this number of one.

471
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,360
Speaker 4: Can I make yeah, sure, just one more at one

472
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 4: point about that total. So when they played earlier this

473
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 4: year in Minnesota, one twenty eight to twenty four, so

474
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 4: fifty two right around the number. I guess this number

475
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 4: makes sense, but I will point out that neither team

476
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 4: produced three hundred yards in that game. Detroit outgained Minnesota

477
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:35,679
Speaker 4: two seventy seven to two point fifty, and so like

478
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 4: it it probably should have played a little under the

479
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 4: fifty two points it played at in that game.

480
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 5: I don't know, Like I don't love the over here

481
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 5: as much as Freedman.

482
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: The climb pat from fifty two to fifty two and

483
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 1: a half. Now the consensus number is fifty three. Do

484
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 1: you wait and see if it grows even more and

485
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 1: then bet the under? Or do you think you lock

486
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,680
Speaker 1: it in now before it maybe starts going the other way?

487
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 4: I might look to lock this in at You know,

488
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 4: I have it at fifty two, so if I can

489
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 4: get it at fifty three, I might just take it now.

490
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 5: I don't know if it goes any higher than that,

491
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 5: all right?

492
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:10,360
Speaker 1: The Philadelphia Eagles put on a show. Boy, Oh boy,

493
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 1: was I wrong? I thought the Titans were going to

494
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 1: be the team to take it to the Eagles. The

495
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 1: Eagles took it to the Titans big time. They are

496
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites over the New York

497
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 1: Football Giants in New York. Jalen Hurts was terrific. AJ

498
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 1: Brown even better. Forty five and a half is the

499
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 1: number on this one plus two twenty five if you

500
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 1: like the Giants. The Giants are now seven four and

501
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 1: one after tying with the Washington Commanders. Look at this

502
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 1: point fits with the Eagles. I mean, this is really

503
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 1: the easy bet, right The Eagles have looked very strong.

504
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 1: Do you just continue to go ahead and take this number? Now?

505
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: Do you think the number is going to grow as

506
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 1: the week goes on, because it feels like it might

507
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 1: as everybody sort of marinates on the performance of the

508
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 1: Eagles against a very tough Titans team, and let's be honest,

509
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 1: the Giants, especially offensively, leave a lot to be desired

510
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 1: at this point.

511
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 4: I might wait to see if it gets to seven

512
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 4: and a half and then grab the Giants as a

513
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 4: home dog. I love betting the home dogs. But this

514
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 4: was an impressive performance by the Eagles after three kind

515
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,680
Speaker 4: of shaky games. I mean, they had that home loss

516
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 4: to the Washington Commanders earlier and then narrow wins over

517
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 4: the Colton Packers, so the Eagles had not looked sharp,

518
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 4: and then they just blew the doors off a very

519
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:24,439
Speaker 4: good AFC team yesterday so that was impressive. But at

520
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 4: the same time, the Giants, undermanned against a hot Washington

521
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 4: Commander's team hung throughout that game and probably should have

522
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 4: won if not for a couple silly mistakes. So yeah, like,

523
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 4: the Giants are plucky, under dable, and if this gets

524
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,400
Speaker 4: over seven and a half, I'm going to take those points.

525
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 5: But as of now, I see no value.

526
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 1: How about you here, Friedman, do you see any value

527
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 1: in this one early on? Because obviously the Eagles six

528
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 1: and a half. To me, I thought this would be

529
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 1: a bigger number. To be honest with you, I think

530
00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: they're giving you the Giants a lot of respect, maybe

531
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 1: too much.

532
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:04,199
Speaker 3: Yeah, I echo what Fitz said. We're lockstep on this,

533
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 3: and you know, aligned with the market. You know, six

534
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,199
Speaker 3: and a half is where it is almost universally across

535
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 3: all the books. I have it at six and a half.

536
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 3: Fits has it at six and a half. If it

537
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 3: climbed up to seven and a half, I would definitely

538
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,679
Speaker 3: be taking the Giants here. I do see value on

539
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 3: the under at forty five and a half. You know,

540
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:27,439
Speaker 3: outdoor divisional game in December with two teams that like

541
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 3: to run the ball, it feels like an underspot. I

542
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 3: haven't projected at forty four point one, all right.

543
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 1: And the Giants on the money line plus two twenty five.

544
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: If you think the Eagles have any let down or

545
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 1: in division woes here, it's weird because the Eagles sometimes

546
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: do you feel like there are team guys that plays

547
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 1: up to their competition and down to their competition at times?

548
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 1: I feel like that's something that worries me slightly with

549
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 1: this team at times. Do you guys get that feeling

550
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 1: at all?

551
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a good observation. I do get that feeling.

552
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, And I will say one thing that I mean,

553
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 3: I definitely moved them up because it wasn't impressive when

554
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 3: over the titles. I do want to say though, the Titans,

555
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 3: they feel also kind of like a team that is

556
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 3: like Jackal and Hyde to where like eighty percent of

557
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 3: the time they're one team and then twenty percent of

558
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 3: the time they are just total crap.

559
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: Is that time where they get behind, Yeah, I think

560
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 1: the Freeman. I think the twenty percent of the time

561
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 1: when they fall behind early because they can't dig themselves

562
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 1: out of that hole through the air, they're just not

563
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 1: that team. If they can get you to like a

564
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 1: ten to ten game be half, You've they've got you

565
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,719
Speaker 1: in their wheelhouse, like that's it. They're going to grind

566
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 1: you out. But if they fall down twenty to ten

567
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 1: in the first quarter, that's bad news for the Titans.

568
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 1: They just can't seem to dig themselves out of that hole.

569
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 1: Let's go to the next one here on the board.

570
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 1: These two teams are going to match up two times

571
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 1: in the next coming month here Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers.

572
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 1: This game becomes infinitely more interesting now. Seehaw's coming off

573
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 1: a win, Baltimore coming off a win, but Baltimore really

574
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 1: losing Lamar Jackson, possibly for an extended period of time.

575
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 1: We shall see as to get more information. It could

576
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 1: be a week, could be no time. We don't know yet,

577
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 1: but that means there's opportunity here for this line. Pittsburgh

578
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 1: defense starting to play a little bit better too. Obviously

579
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 1: some CJ. Watts return the Steelers at home one point

580
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: favorites in this game. Thirty eight is the over under

581
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 1: that feels about right. You get even money on Baltimore

582
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 1: if you want to take them to win. Outright, Friedman,

583
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 1: what do you think about this game? Here is this

584
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 1: is the beginning of the end for the Baltimore Ravens

585
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 1: as they look to have again two games against Pittsburgh

586
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:29,399
Speaker 1: and then they have another game to close out the

587
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 1: year against Cincinnati. And this offense has been sputtering for

588
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:33,640
Speaker 1: weeks now.

589
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, Huntley in the backup quarterback. He was good as

590
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,199
Speaker 3: a fantasy player last year, but there was still a

591
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 3: pretty big difference between him and Lamar Jackson in terms

592
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 3: of their values to the spread. And so this number

593
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: was I believe, let me make sure I'm right. I

594
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 3: think it was four and a half in the look

595
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 3: ahead market. And with the move that we've seen through

596
00:26:55,560 --> 00:27:00,080
Speaker 3: zero where the Steelers are now favored, I mean, obviously

597
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 3: this line is indicating that Lamar Jackson is not expected

598
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 3: to start this week by the market, and I think

599
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 3: that's accurate. We also had left tackle Ronnie Stanley who

600
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 3: was out, so a backup quarterback without his left tackle

601
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 3: this it makes sense that we have the Steelers favored

602
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 3: in the spot, who've actually been playing pretty well over

603
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 3: the past month, getting better on offense and with defense.

604
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,360
Speaker 3: You have TJ. Watt there that helps a lot, even

605
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,960
Speaker 3: though their secondary is suffering from some injuries, So I

606
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 3: have this projected at minus one and a half going

607
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 3: towards Pittsburgh. So you know, I think there's a little

608
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 3: bit of value there on the Steelers. But you know

609
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 3: that's also assuming that there's no Lamar Jackson, and I

610
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,120
Speaker 3: think that's very likely, but you know, we can't lock

611
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:47,120
Speaker 3: that in for sure yet.

612
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 1: Fits How do you feel about this game as we

613
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: look at it early? Do Baltimore and Pittsburgh?

614
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 4: Well, I don't think we see Lamar because we have

615
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 4: heard the original or the report saying that they don't

616
00:27:57,840 --> 00:27:59,719
Speaker 4: think it's going to be a season ending injury. Well,

617
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 4: that's certainly does not make it sound like he's going

618
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:03,479
Speaker 4: to bounce back for Week fourteen. So I think we

619
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 4: do see Tyler Huntley in this game. And in his

620
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 4: four starts last year, uh, he was sacked fifteen times

621
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 4: and through four interceptions, so there are mistakes that are

622
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,119
Speaker 4: going to be made. And in fact, he faced the

623
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 4: Steelers in the regular season finale last year, Huntley was

624
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 4: sixteen of thirty one for one hundred and forty one

625
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 4: yards with no touchdowns, two interceptions, and three sacks.

626
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 5: So that kind of makes you want to lean towards

627
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 5: the Steelers.

628
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 4: But really, like, what is the advantage in terms of

629
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 4: point differential Kenny Pickett versus Tyler Huntley.

630
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 5: Is it like more than a point? I don't know

631
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 5: if it's more than a point, And I.

632
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 4: Know I know which team's infrastructure I like more, even

633
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 4: with the Ronnie Stanley injury, Like if Ronnie Stanley were healthy,

634
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 4: I mean, I would think the Ravens infrastructure would be

635
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 4: worth more, like, you know, four or five points, like

636
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 4: just four points take away the quarterback position. I would

637
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 4: think the Ravens or at least four or five points

638
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 4: better than the Steelers. Ronnie Stanley maybe levels things a

639
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 4: little bit. But like, I can't get on board with

640
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 4: the Steelers here. I'm kind of inclined to just not

641
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 4: bet this. But I see this as like close to

642
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 4: a pick them.

643
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 1: I'm actually very much on the Pittsburgh side of this game, guys.

644
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 1: I think that Pittsburgh is good like that that crowd

645
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 1: was very fired up a couple of weeks ago for

646
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 1: that game against the Bengals. I think Kenny Pickett is

647
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 1: continuing to figure things out. I think there's gona be

648
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 1: a lot of motion there. This is a huge game

649
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 1: they hate, I mean just ask Scott Backman how much

650
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 1: Steeler fans hate the Ravens, Like this is going to

651
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 1: be a really big opportunity. And I think you when

652
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 1: you have an opponent like this that's been like your

653
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 1: nemesis for so many years, you kick them when they're down,

654
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:41,959
Speaker 1: and they're down right now. As good as they've been

655
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 1: defensively the last few weeks, and they have been, but man, offensively,

656
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 1: they just can't seem to get anything going. So if

657
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 1: they can get Pittsburgh, get one lucky scorer in there,

658
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 1: that might be the difference. Like that might not be

659
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 1: any coming back from that.

660
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, Jacksonville G Sorry, I said, just follow up on

661
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 3: what you said, Joe. I think you're absolutely right, and

662
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 3: you know, to fix his point back thinking of infrastructure,

663
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 3: I think organizationally kind of top down, big picture. He's right,

664
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 3: but I think we have the better quarterback, we have

665
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 3: the better wide receivers, we have the team that's at home,

666
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 3: and the Steelers might have the better defense if it's

667
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 3: not better running the same you know.

668
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 1: In a game where you want to grind out maybe

669
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 1: a little bit. Maybe the better running back too, I

670
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,959
Speaker 1: mean Ajie pushing guys down to the ground pretty ferociously.

671
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 1: That was a pretty angry run there that he had,

672
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 1: where he pushed that defensive back down to the ground

673
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 1: and planted him. I don't know if he's going to

674
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 1: grow out a flower anytime soon, but my goodness, he

675
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 1: was pretty deep into the earth. The Jacksonville Jaguars four

676
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 1: and eight. Somehow Trevor Lawrence was able to walk back

677
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 1: into this game. I don't know how. I from watching

678
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 1: that injury, I thought, oh my god, Trevor Lawrence has

679
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 1: done I was not thinking positively after that, but he

680
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 1: came back. Unfortunately, it was not enough for them. They

681
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 1: came up with another loss. Therefore, and eight the Tennessee

682
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 1: Titans licking their wounds a little bit, seven to five.

683
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 1: This is the perfect opponent for I think Tennessee to

684
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 1: have here three and a half point favorites at home.

685
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 1: Forty one and a half is the number plus one

686
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 1: sixty three on the money line fits. Let's start with

687
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 1: you with this one. Derek Henry's been a little slow

688
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 1: lately in terms of productivity, hasn't quite been typically we're

689
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 1: used to seeing December, you know, after Thanksgiving. This is

690
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 1: what I like to call the Derek Henry season where

691
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: defenses stop wanting to tackle people and Derek Henry starts

692
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 1: running them over. Doesn't seem to be going in that

693
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 1: direction this year. I mean, we finally seeing the King

694
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 1: look a little old here at this punk point in

695
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 1: the season. And do you think that this is in

696
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 1: any way, shape or form a dangerous game for the

697
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans.

698
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 4: Boy, this will be telling Joe, because this certainly seems

699
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 4: like a get right spot for Derrick Henry does. But boy,

700
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 4: I don't know how dangerous this feels. And we were

701
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 4: just talking about the Titans, and you know, Joe, you

702
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 4: made the point, and I think it was a good

703
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 4: one that the Titans are not built to play from behind,

704
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 4: and you know, like part of it is this team

705
00:31:55,960 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 4: is just they're such overachievers. And I have, as free knows,

706
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 4: immense respect for Mike Rabel. I think he's, you know,

707
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 4: as far as motivational and getting his team ready to

708
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 4: play week after week.

709
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 5: I think he's maybe the best in the NFL.

710
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 1: But they'll give him more to work with sometimes. I

711
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 1: mean that's what's frustrating, Like he is such a great

712
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 1: coach and maybe I mean, how long can you play

713
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 1: the narrative of us against the world before he starts

714
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 1: to get frustrating, which like I just need a little

715
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 1: bit more help.

716
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, and that's it.

717
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 4: Why do they occasionally come out with these clunkers like

718
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 4: the one they played against Philly in week thirteen, And

719
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 4: it's because all of a sudden.

720
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 5: You realize, Wow, they're they're really undermanned.

721
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 4: So you know, they can overachieve eight times out of ten,

722
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 4: but those two times, they're going to be out talented,

723
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 4: so to speak.

724
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 5: But I don't think they're going to be out talented

725
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 5: against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

726
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 4: And we rarely see, you know, maybe it is two

727
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 4: out of ten games where the Titans disappoints. Rarely do

728
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 4: the Titans play two bad games in a row. And

729
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 4: I think they are going to come home with steam

730
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 4: coming out of their ears after the way they played

731
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 4: in Philly on Sunday. And you know they've got this

732
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 4: is a homecoming tight matchup. You know, you don't you

733
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 4: don't schedule the strong teams for homecoming, you schedule the cupcake.

734
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 4: They've got a cupcake coming back home against the Jaguars.

735
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 4: They've won five in a row against the Jags. The

736
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 4: last time they lost to Jacksonville was week three of

737
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 4: twenty nineteen. You mentioned it, Joe, like, Trevor Lawrence like

738
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 4: he can't be fully one hundred percent healthy after that

739
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 4: injury that I was sure was a born acl oh.

740
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 1: I thought he's done for the year.

741
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 5: He has multiple knee ligaments.

742
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 4: I mean, it looked bad and to see him like

743
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 4: jogging back out of the field was just amazing.

744
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 5: But yeah, he can't. He can't be fully right for

745
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 5: this game. So I really like the Titans here, Freeman.

746
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 1: Is it just as simple as this as it looks

747
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: as it appears.

748
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 3: When when Fitz was waxing poetic about the Titans and

749
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 3: Mike Brabel, I had to go look at our projections

750
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 3: just to see where he had them. So Fitz has

751
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 3: them at minus five. I have it at minus three

752
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 3: point seventy five. You know right, I'm basically right in

753
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 3: line with the market. I don't have much to say

754
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 3: about this game except I'm there's a chance that I'm

755
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:09,760
Speaker 3: not taking into account the potential injury or not potential injury.

756
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,760
Speaker 3: He is injured, Trevor Lawrence is injury, but the extent

757
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 3: the impact of that injury, so that's something I'm going

758
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 3: to be looking at in the injury reports throughout the

759
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 3: week and maybe I need to downgrade the Jags a

760
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 3: little bit more because of that. But also thinking on

761
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 3: the injury front, this Titans team is really injured, and

762
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 3: that is one of the things to where it's like

763
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 3: they're they're underman to begin with, but then they are

764
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:39,760
Speaker 3: especially undermanned. They're missing cornerback Caleb Farley, safety Lonnie Johnson,

765
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 3: and then now Elijah Molden and Christian Fulton at cornerback.

766
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 3: They're injured like they could be without like their three

767
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 3: starting cornerbacks. They're missing Zach Hunningham, wanted through starting off

768
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 3: ball linebackers, and now they're missing David Long, their other

769
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 3: starting off ball linebacker. They've been without edge rusher Deniko Audrey,

770
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 3: who's their main edge rusher at this point. They've been

771
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 3: without him for a couple of weeks. There's no guarantee

772
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 3: that he comes back in this game. And Treylon Perks

773
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,240
Speaker 3: their main wide receiver. He went out with the concussion.

774
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 3: No guarantee he comes back this week. Like they are

775
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,680
Speaker 3: significantly injured and there's no chance that they're getting all

776
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:15,839
Speaker 3: of these guys back this week. So I'm downgrading them

777
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 3: on the injury front, like the short term injury front

778
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 3: this week, more than I am almost any other team.

779
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 1: They are also three to zero in a division. This

780
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 1: would put them to four and one of the division

781
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 1: and possibly sew it up for them. I think they

782
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 1: realize the gravity of this game. If you handle your business,

783
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 1: you've at least punched your ticket practically to the playoffs,

784
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 1: which means if you do that, you can afford to

785
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 1: rest of those guys. Seating doesn't matter. Only one team's

786
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:41,400
Speaker 1: getting to buy. You're not going to be it. So

787
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:45,879
Speaker 1: win this game, get right, get healthy, and then take

788
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 1: your shots in the playoffs. That's probably what Mike Rabel's

789
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 1: speech is going to be. Spoiler learned, everybody, I just

790
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 1: stole it. All right, let's go to the next one here,

791
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 1: talk about get right games. This is the perfect time

792
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 1: for Patrick Mahomes to have the Denver Broncos. There we go.

793
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,439
Speaker 1: Let's let's go, baby, Let's ride to Mile High. Let's

794
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 1: do it. The Denver Broncos three and nine. They are

795
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,240
Speaker 1: nine point underdogs at home to the Kansas City Chiefs.

796
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 1: Forty three is the number plus three thirty on the

797
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:12,319
Speaker 1: money line. For the Denver Broncos. Friedman. Look, Patrick Mahomes

798
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 1: played hard yesterday, they came up short. We all saw

799
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 1: what happened there. This is when you go to Denver

800
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 1: and you take out all your frustrations on Russell Wilson

801
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 1: on the Denver Broncos. And I know the Denver Broncos

802
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 1: defensively were a good team. And I know people are

803
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 1: gonna look at this and say, well, but look how

804
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: they hold the Baltimore Ravens. I don't think people realize

805
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 1: how bad the Ravens offense truly has been in twenty

806
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 1: twenty two. So let's not give them too much credit here.

807
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 1: What do you think about this number here? Do you

808
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 1: think it grows over time? What does your number say here?

809
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 1: Is it at nine above or below? I feel really

810
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:46,839
Speaker 1: dirty with this game.

811
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 3: I haven't projected at seven point twenty five, and I

812
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 3: don't feel good about it. But I bet it. I'm

813
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 3: on the Broncos at nine and a half, and I'm

814
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 3: also on the under. This is like my hashtag brand,

815
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 3: like betting Broncos unders. And of course this line has

816
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,359
Speaker 3: moved against me, this line has moved up a little

817
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 3: bit to forty three. But I just got to it

818
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 3: wherever people think this line should be. Broncos games have

819
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:20,240
Speaker 3: finished ten points under the market on average to this point.

820
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 3: So in a low scoring game with a team at

821
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 3: home at altitude in December, in a divisional matchup, getting

822
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 3: almost ten points, I just I kind of have to

823
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,360
Speaker 3: take it, and I don't feel good about it. But

824
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 3: this defense is so good. And the thing is, people

825
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 3: like we have been high. I have been high on

826
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 3: the Chiefs to this point, especially when the Chiefs have

827
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 3: been big favorites. Like it is a it is a

828
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 3: different approach, Like I think they can win games by

829
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 3: big margins, but they don't do it because they don't

830
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 3: need to, Like they lack the killer instinct to just

831
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 3: like pile on the points when they can. So I

832
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 3: even if like a seven point game is right there,

833
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 3: sure that's fine. I think that's where this number should be.

834
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 3: But the Chiefs aren't going out of their way to

835
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 3: put the boot on the neck of the opponent and

836
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 3: kill them when they're down. They're just fine to let

837
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:15,399
Speaker 3: them kind of dye the gentle death.

838
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 1: Well that I mean last couple weeks certainly some frustrating times.

839
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 1: I mean that Rams game was very close there. There

840
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,240
Speaker 1: was a very tight contest, but Sean McVay was very prepared.

841
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: He got them fired up to play The Chiefs fits.

842
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 1: I understand exactly what Friedam been saying, and it makes

843
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:32,799
Speaker 1: a lot of sense. But I'm talking about Andy Reid

844
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 1: preparation versus Nathaniel Hackett preparation at the end of the day,

845
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 1: and I just don't think they're going to be able

846
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: to keep pace with the Chiefs in any way. I

847
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,879
Speaker 1: think the Chiefs feel what Friedman's saying. I think they're

848
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 1: hearing that, and I think they're overdue for a little

849
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 1: bit of this classic Chiefs putting thirty eight on somebody,

850
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 1: and look, it's still might go to the under just

851
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:55,720
Speaker 1: let's say if that happens, because the Denver Bronco offense

852
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: is not good either. But what do you think about

853
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 1: this game?

854
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,240
Speaker 4: Well, first of all, I owe Freedman an apology because

855
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 4: on the live stream yesterday I called him a Chiefs

856
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:10,800
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes fanboy, and his selection this week clearly I

857
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 4: you know, was mistaken and labeling him as such. I agree,

858
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:19,360
Speaker 4: this feels it feels a little tall because Kansas City.

859
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 4: You know, I've been burned on several occasions betting them

860
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 4: as big favorites the last couple of years. They just

861
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 4: don't seem to step on the throat very well. I

862
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:29,839
Speaker 4: didn't want to bet them against the Rams a few

863
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 4: weeks ago when you know one of the biggest mismatches

864
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:36,839
Speaker 4: you could possibly have. But the trends here not good

865
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:40,720
Speaker 4: for the Broncos. Kansas City has won thirteen straight games

866
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 4: against Denver going back to Week two of twenty fifteen.

867
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 4: This pre dates Patrick Mahomes and let's take a real

868
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 4: quick trip down memory lane, fellas, So that was yeah.

869
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:55,760
Speaker 5: September seventeenth, twenty fifteen.

870
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 4: Denver won thirty one to fourteen thirty one twenty four

871
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:00,800
Speaker 4: their last win against the Chiefs.

872
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 5: Peyton Manning had three touchdown passes. Who is Peyton Manning?

873
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 5: Two of them new Emmanuel Sanders, one to Virgil Green.

874
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:11,280
Speaker 4: The late de Marius Thomas had one hundred and sixteen

875
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:15,239
Speaker 4: yards for Denver, and Jamal Charles had one hundred and

876
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 4: twenty five rushing yards and a touchdown for the Chiefs.

877
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:18,839
Speaker 5: It's been a.

878
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 4: While since Denver has beat Kansas City, and they've never

879
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 4: beaten Patrick Mahomes. Do we really think this Russell Wilson

880
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 4: Denver offense is gonna be the one that slays the dragon.

881
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 4: I kind of don't think so, So don't want to bet.

882
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 4: The Chiefs was a big favorite. Don't want to bet

883
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 4: the Broncos just gonna walk away.

884
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 1: It's gonna walk away, all right. Let's go to the

885
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 1: next one here, Carolina and Seattle. Seattle is now seven

886
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,879
Speaker 1: and five. They're gonna host the Panthers. They are five

887
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 1: point favorites at home. We're getting updates right now. I

888
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:52,359
Speaker 1: just saw this morning Ken Walker. They're getting some tests

889
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 1: done on the ankle to see where he is at.

890
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:55,720
Speaker 1: Obviously that will be a huge loss in this game,

891
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,439
Speaker 1: could impact the line. But still, Carolina has been bad

892
00:40:58,440 --> 00:40:59,959
Speaker 1: this year. Forty three and a half is the number

893
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 1: plus one eighty five on the money line for the

894
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 1: Panthers here. Do you see any early value at all? Fred,

895
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 1: excuse me, fits on this game?

896
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 5: Not either way. I don't.

897
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 4: I'm pretty much right on the spread and the total

898
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 4: as far as my projection, so not inclined to bet it.

899
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 4: But can I ask you guys a quick question. Do

900
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 4: you think Gino Smith is going to be starting for someone,

901
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 4: whether it's Sattle or anyone else in twenty twenty three.

902
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 1: He is now minus seven hundred for Comeback Player of

903
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 1: the Year, by the way, which I don't know what

904
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: he came back from except from obscurity, Like I don't

905
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,239
Speaker 1: know what. I don't understand what the I mean.

906
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 3: I guess that counts. But that that broken jaw like

907
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:39,880
Speaker 3: seven years ago, right, that's what it was.

908
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 1: I mean. But yeah, I mean, especially with the need

909
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,840
Speaker 1: for quarterbacks in the league, I would imagine he's gonna

910
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 1: have an opportunity somewhere. I mean, I would keep him.

911
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 3: I was with Carol when you I think they keep him.

912
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 5: I think so.

913
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 4: But like, looking at this game at five and a half,

914
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:57,320
Speaker 4: you know, I'm the first thought is can Gino Smith

915
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 4: cover kind of a big number by himself with no

916
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 4: run game, because it's going to be just a precipitous

917
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 4: drop off from from Ken Walker to you know, DJ Dallas,

918
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:09,760
Speaker 4: like big falloff. So it's gonna be Geno single handedly

919
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 4: slinging it around to beat Carolina.

920
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 5: Can he do it? My first thought is, yeah, I

921
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:14,839
Speaker 5: think he can do it.

922
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 4: So although I don't want to bet it, like I

923
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 4: don't want to bet against Gino either, at this point.

924
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he just had it perfectly there. I want,

925
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 1: I don't want to bet it, but I'm not get

926
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 1: betting against Geno Smith. It is the Carolina Panthers. Friedman,

927
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,839
Speaker 1: do you think that's all you need here for this five? Yeah?

928
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 3: I do want to bet it, and I did bet it.

929
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 3: I haven't projected at seven point twenty five. And to

930
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:38,720
Speaker 3: fits this point, the running game could be pretty nasty

931
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:44,320
Speaker 3: for the Seahawks because it's not It's not just Kenneth Walker.

932
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:47,359
Speaker 3: DJ Dallas also had an ankle injury and I think

933
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 3: he was like technically like doubtful to enter the game,

934
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 3: and then they needed to put him back in the game.

935
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:56,320
Speaker 3: Travis Homer is also dealing with the knee injury and illness,

936
00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 3: so he wasn't active last week. But you know, there's

937
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 3: a chance he comes back this week and so maybe

938
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,200
Speaker 3: he could be the lead back. But you know, it's

939
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:06,840
Speaker 3: the running game. I don't think it matters all that much.

940
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 3: Carolina is terrible. Gino Smith is having you know, a

941
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:15,399
Speaker 3: fantastic season here and at home like he's been, he's

942
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,440
Speaker 3: been pretty good at home. Historically, the Seahawks have a

943
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 3: massive advantage at home. You have Carolina traveling across the country.

944
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 3: I think this is a very desirable spot to be

945
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 3: backing the Seahawks.

946
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 1: Seattle is three and two at home this year, and

947
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 1: just looking at where they're at right now, the gun

948
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:35,799
Speaker 1: another w for them. They're right in the thick of things.

949
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 1: And who knows, I mean, with the injury in the

950
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 1: game we're going to talk about next to San Francisco's

951
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 1: quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who knows? Perhaps the West is actually

952
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:47,360
Speaker 1: up for grabs again? Is it possible? San Francisco eight

953
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:50,160
Speaker 1: and four, but losing Jimmy Garoppolo for the season, So

954
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 1: Brock party takes over a QB. Yeah, that's right, Iowa

955
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:56,399
Speaker 1: State right, memory serves yes, guys, Iowa State.

956
00:43:56,520 --> 00:43:59,439
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, dirty party, dirty party from that Iowa State.

957
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:02,719
Speaker 1: Let's go Iowa State, the hub of so many great

958
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 1: quarterbacks over the years. Let's go to the numbers here.

959
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 1: San Francisco is still three point favorites at home, and

960
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 1: I think as they should be. Defense is still very good,

961
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:14,320
Speaker 1: still plenty of weapons here. Brock perty did what he

962
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 1: had to do. Thirty seven and a half is the

963
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 1: number for the over under plus one forty. If you

964
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 1: like the Bucks, I am out of the business of

965
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Matthew Friedman, I just they have not inspired

966
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 1: any faith of me whatsoever. I would be on the

967
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 1: San Francisco side. I just don't know there's any value

968
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 1: here in this, do you.

969
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm the siko who's going to betting on

970
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay in this spodka. They are significantly injured right

971
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 3: now in the secondary, but I'm imagining that a couple

972
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 3: at least one of those guys ends up making it

973
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 3: back by week fourteen. So you know, free safety Mike Edwards,

974
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 3: cornerback Sean Murphy, bontin safety Antoine Winfeld, who's you know,

975
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,879
Speaker 3: playing a little more as his slot corner. I think

976
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 3: one of those guys returns. All of them were listed

977
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 3: as doubtful this week, and so you know that kind

978
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 3: of puts them on the trajectory for playing next week.

979
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 3: And if all of those guys return, all of a sudden,

980
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 3: you have a secondary that's looking pretty good going against

981
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 3: a third string rookie. Uh, literally, the last pick of

982
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 3: the draft this year. We were he is the actual

983
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:23,240
Speaker 3: mister irrelevant and uh, you know, fine, he looked good,

984
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,960
Speaker 3: but that was in a game coming out of nowhere.

985
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:28,919
Speaker 3: I'm just going to put my foot down and say

986
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:32,440
Speaker 3: Tom Brady should not be an underdog against a third

987
00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:36,760
Speaker 3: string rookie quarterback. I'm just going to say that, assert

988
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 3: it as objective fact. And so my my number. Having

989
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 3: said that, I have this at exactly three, that's that's

990
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 3: the number. But I don't I do not care. I

991
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 3: will bet on Tom Brady in this.

992
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 1: Spot, all right, the gut over the numbers here in

993
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:53,440
Speaker 1: this one, Pat, If tom Brady should lose again to

994
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:56,520
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints, you think this number changes at all.

995
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 4: It could change if they really lay egg against New

996
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 4: Orleans on Monday night. So yeah, Like, I don't know

997
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 4: if the right move is to take this early because

998
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 4: I'm with Friedman, like Tom Brady is a three point

999
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 4: dog to mister irrelevant. And of course there are you know,

1000
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 4: a hundred other guys involved in this game who are

1001
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 4: gonna have some bearing on how things go down. But

1002
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers like had not been good offensively

1003
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 4: in recent weeks and actually had one of their better

1004
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 4: offensive performances with Brock Purty playing. I don't know if

1005
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:31,839
Speaker 4: that's gonna repeat though, So I think rather than wait

1006
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 4: and maybe have you know Tampa play well against New

1007
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:38,760
Speaker 4: Orleans and this this line loses some of its value.

1008
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna lock it in at three. You know,

1009
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:46,319
Speaker 4: I just as many issues as I have, Joe, like you,

1010
00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 4: I'm not eager to put money on the Buccaneers again, No, no,

1011
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:50,439
Speaker 4: I'm not.

1012
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,240
Speaker 1: I'm more eager if they lose tonight. Though, I'm moregan

1013
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: if they lose tonight, because they lose, and I I

1014
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 1: think the three goes to maybe three and a half,

1015
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 1: could even be the faith is dying quickly, I think

1016
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:04,879
Speaker 1: for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and rightfully so. They've kind

1017
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 1: of self inflicted wounds here to a certain extent. So

1018
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 1: that's how I look at this one. But they say convincingly,

1019
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:13,799
Speaker 1: maybe it looks very different this line. Maybe this line

1020
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 1: becomes one at the end of the day.

1021
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:19,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I have to say, like the discount from

1022
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:23,440
Speaker 3: Garoppolo to Perty, I have it at four, but like,

1023
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:27,279
Speaker 3: I feel like there's significant room like for error in

1024
00:47:27,280 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 3: that projection and not to the upside. Like Garoppolo, as

1025
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:35,239
Speaker 3: much as you know he might frustrate fantasy managers and

1026
00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 3: forty nine ers fans, like he has been a very

1027
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:43,240
Speaker 3: functional quarterback within that system. For over half a decade.

1028
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 3: The drop off to a seventh round rookie has to

1029
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:50,719
Speaker 3: be pretty significant. And as good as Purty looked last week,

1030
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:53,760
Speaker 3: there's no guarantee he looks anything like that this week.

1031
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:56,840
Speaker 3: So I have the difference between those being four points,

1032
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:59,840
Speaker 3: but the difference could be more like six or seven points.

1033
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 1: All Right, last couple of games here on the slate,

1034
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:06,720
Speaker 1: we're gonna hit up for Week fourteen. Miami Dolphins. Seems

1035
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 1: like TWA is oh right going to play. It seems

1036
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:11,840
Speaker 1: like against Los Angeles Chargers. Six and six are the

1037
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 1: Chargers there at three point home underdogs, as they should be.

1038
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 1: There's no advantage there. Fifty one and a half is

1039
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 1: the total for this game plus one twenty eight? Friedman,

1040
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:21,439
Speaker 1: Is that fifty one and a half too low?

1041
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 3: Who it's? I think that is a good number. I

1042
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:30,439
Speaker 3: have it, well, yeah, I have it fifty two point three.

1043
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 1: I haven't it low.

1044
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 3: I haven't bet it. I this is a game that

1045
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 3: I feel a little bit weird about, in part because

1046
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 3: of the Tua injury, and it looks like he's gonna play.

1047
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 3: Tom Pellisero said he could have re entered the game

1048
00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:46,120
Speaker 3: if they'd needed him too. But on the side I

1049
00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:48,719
Speaker 3: have this, I'm showing value on the Chargers, and I

1050
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 3: feel kind of disgusting about it, and I wanted to

1051
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:54,239
Speaker 3: look at some more things on that. But I have

1052
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 3: this at Chargers underdogs by one point two five points,

1053
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:00,399
Speaker 3: and so at two and a half, I think there's

1054
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 3: value there in. One thing that does give me a

1055
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:05,360
Speaker 3: little bit of pause on this is that the Dolphins

1056
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 3: are staying on the West coast. So that's sort of

1057
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:11,359
Speaker 3: like the Shanahan trick that Mike McDaniel learned, like when

1058
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 3: traveling on the same coast, you just stay there. And

1059
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 3: so I think the normal road disadvantage that the Dolphins

1060
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 3: have had will be diminished this week, and so I

1061
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:23,759
Speaker 3: need to adjust for that a little bit more. So

1062
00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 3: my numbers are showing some value on the Chargers, but

1063
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:28,640
Speaker 3: I'm just I'm not sure how much I actually trust

1064
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:30,360
Speaker 3: it fits.

1065
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:32,319
Speaker 1: What's your trust level here in this game?

1066
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 4: A little bit of value on the Chargers. I think

1067
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 4: I've got it at minus one and a half for Miami,

1068
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:40,439
Speaker 4: and I've also got it a little to the under

1069
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 4: just because of the uncertainty about Tua's ankle and the

1070
00:49:46,239 --> 00:49:49,360
Speaker 4: Dolphins running game sort of disappeared on Sunday, and granted,

1071
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:52,959
Speaker 4: they were playing a very, very stout run defense of

1072
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:55,759
Speaker 4: San Francisco and now they're going to be playing one

1073
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:57,640
Speaker 4: of the worst run defenses in the league. But I

1074
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:00,919
Speaker 4: do worry a bit when a running game just goes

1075
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 4: belly up like that. So I don't know if this

1076
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 4: one plays over. I'm not feeling wildly confident about it.

1077
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:10,239
Speaker 4: But as Friedman knows, I hate betting Chargers games, so

1078
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 4: I'm probably just.

1079
00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:12,760
Speaker 5: Not going to do anything on this one.

1080
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 1: All right, last one Monday Night Football. We've got the

1081
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 1: New England Patriots on tap, going to Arizona. Arizona four

1082
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:22,359
Speaker 1: and eighth, the pat six and six. The Patriots are

1083
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:24,239
Speaker 1: one and a half point favorites in this game on

1084
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 1: the road. Forty three and a half is the number,

1085
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 1: plus one oh five on the money line. Fits is

1086
00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 1: the wrong team favored here?

1087
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:34,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, Friedman is going to I'm not going to steal

1088
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 4: the Cliff Kings very narrative from Friedman. That is a

1089
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:41,160
Speaker 4: thing to talk about, So I'm not going to say that.

1090
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 4: I'm just going to say that I do like the Cardinals'

1091
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 4: olnd dog here. And I originally projected this at forty

1092
00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:50,919
Speaker 4: two points, but I've since bumped it up to forty three.

1093
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:52,240
Speaker 5: That still puts me on the under.

1094
00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 4: But like, I'm not confident in betting this, and if anything,

1095
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 4: I almost want to be in the over because the

1096
00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:01,880
Speaker 4: Patriots have become really pass heavy in neutral game scripts lately.

1097
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 4: There has been a subtle sea change in the way

1098
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 4: their offense works. And maybe it's not having Damian Harris,

1099
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:10,480
Speaker 4: but they're a little more willing to throw it around

1100
00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 4: these days.

1101
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:14,280
Speaker 5: So whereas I once ask.

1102
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:18,520
Speaker 1: Mac Jones right right, yeah.

1103
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 4: And some of his mouthings on the sidelines, so yeah,

1104
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:24,719
Speaker 4: maybe they didn't, but maybe they should throw it around more.

1105
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:27,080
Speaker 4: So I'm not betting the under here, not sure I

1106
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:30,319
Speaker 4: can go over, but yeah, it's an interesting game, and

1107
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 4: I'll let Friedman take it away on.

1108
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 1: The Campburry go ahead for the Kingsbury built up, built

1109
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:39,319
Speaker 1: up into this state, I mean, okay, yeah, Cliff kings

1110
00:51:39,360 --> 00:51:40,480
Speaker 1: were good as an underdog.

1111
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:44,359
Speaker 3: Okay, so anyway past that, but I'm not gonna say

1112
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:46,959
Speaker 3: the wrong team is favored here. But you know, like fits,

1113
00:51:47,040 --> 00:51:48,919
Speaker 3: I think this game is very close to a pick

1114
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:53,120
Speaker 3: them and so at home Arizona coming off with the

1115
00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 3: buye uh yeah, I do see value here on them.

1116
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:59,239
Speaker 3: And this was two in the look ahead market. It's

1117
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:00,840
Speaker 3: moved down to one one and a half and I

1118
00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 3: think it's some books. It might even be one now.

1119
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 3: So it would not surprise me if this got to

1120
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:09,920
Speaker 3: pick them or flipped by the time we had the

1121
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:10,800
Speaker 3: kick off here.

1122
00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:13,000
Speaker 1: All right, For you've been giving your favorite bets and

1123
00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:16,719
Speaker 1: the look Ahead early market for week fourteen favorite bet.

1124
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,880
Speaker 3: I mean, this is it is so disgusting, but I

1125
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 3: have to say Denver. I have to say Denver, and

1126
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:27,120
Speaker 3: I'm gonna hate myself for it. If I'm gonna say

1127
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:30,759
Speaker 3: Denver and the under for that game, let me make

1128
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:33,719
Speaker 3: sure I'm just seeing the right the right number here.

1129
00:52:34,040 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 3: It is available nine and a half at DraftKings uh

1130
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 3: and the under forty three.

1131
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 1: I like.

1132
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:43,799
Speaker 3: I like both of those, and it's very possible I

1133
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 3: just have a total wrong read on that game.

1134
00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 1: And if you might get the under and still get

1135
00:52:49,160 --> 00:52:53,040
Speaker 1: the nine, like, yeah, that's a very possibility with this

1136
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:56,799
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos offense fits for you. Any early lock in

1137
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 1: look aheads.

1138
00:52:57,880 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 4: Well, the president of the Patrick Mahomes Club is going

1139
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:03,720
Speaker 4: to be knocking at Friedman's door demanding his membership card

1140
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 4: later today.

1141
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:06,279
Speaker 5: So yeah, I like.

1142
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:11,560
Speaker 4: The Bengals Joe to really thump the Browns revenge game

1143
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 4: narrative after the Halloween whipping they took.

1144
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:16,600
Speaker 5: So yeah, I mean only four and a half.

1145
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:20,200
Speaker 4: Give me Bengals minus four and a half Tennessee also

1146
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 4: in a little bit of a revenge thought coming off

1147
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 4: the bad game against the Eagles minus three and a

1148
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:29,440
Speaker 4: half over Jacksonville, and I'll jump on the Kings Verry

1149
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:32,399
Speaker 4: narrative and take the cards getting one and a half

1150
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:32,840
Speaker 4: at home.

1151
00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 1: There you have it all right, don't forget everybody to

1152
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:38,760
Speaker 1: go subscribe to the YouTube channel over at Bettingpros YouTube

1153
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 1: dot com slash betting Pros, click that little belt that

1154
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:44,239
Speaker 1: goes ding for notifications, and check out Bettingpros dot com

1155
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:47,320
Speaker 1: for all of the great content here that we're offering.

1156
00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, But the story of the

1157
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 1: game goes on for Pat fitz Morris and Matthew Friedman.

1158
00:53:51,680 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 1: I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time, kids,