WEBVTT - ‘Hardcore’ Ultimatum Spurs Exodus

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube and now also on Bloomberg Quick Take. We talked

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<v Speaker 1>about volume being light in terms of the trade here,

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<v Speaker 1>and that makes maybe some sense as we get ready

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<v Speaker 1>for a holiday week next week and get into the weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>But I will say when it comes to news, I

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<v Speaker 1>can't almost every day. I think this week when I

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<v Speaker 1>would look at the most right on the Bloomberg where

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<v Speaker 1>it was in the past eight hours or past one hour,

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<v Speaker 1>it was all about f t X and Sam Bank

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<v Speaker 1>been freed. And I gotta say this includes this next

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<v Speaker 1>story which today which I it's a story I love

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<v Speaker 1>and it's a must read. It is a most read

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<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg. It is about what f t X is,

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<v Speaker 1>Sam Bankman, Freed said when we asked him, our Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>team asked him about some different things and the red

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<v Speaker 1>flags that were raised over the summer. So delighted to

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<v Speaker 1>have back with us, Bloomberg News investing reporter Annimal. So

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<v Speaker 1>she's been all over this story. She's back in our

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio. Love this story, feel like it's

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<v Speaker 1>so important right when we like kind of are now

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<v Speaker 1>looking back. So first of all, tell us about the

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<v Speaker 1>story and how you guys laid it out. So um

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<v Speaker 1>back in August, um I was working with Hannah Miller

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<v Speaker 1>and Anna Arera here at Bloomberg and we were just

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<v Speaker 1>kind of talking about how something was fishy with f

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<v Speaker 1>t X, and at the time, SPF was on this

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<v Speaker 1>mega buying spree. He was buying up all these bankrupt

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<v Speaker 1>companies and just throwing money left and right, and we

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<v Speaker 1>just sort of started to like, the more we looked

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<v Speaker 1>into f t X, the more we we were like,

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<v Speaker 1>where is he getting all this money? What's going on here?

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<v Speaker 1>And what on earth is this company Alameda that's operating

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<v Speaker 1>on the side that he also owns, and none of

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<v Speaker 1>this was like, you know, it was known that Alameda

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<v Speaker 1>existed and was out there, but like there seemed to

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<v Speaker 1>be some pretty glaring conflicts of interest. So we thought

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<v Speaker 1>that we could write a story about how in traditional finance, um,

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<v Speaker 1>that that's not that's not really kosher, it's not really

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<v Speaker 1>copacetic to have a market maker kind of operating under

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<v Speaker 1>the same umbrella as an exchange. Sure enough, here we

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<v Speaker 1>are after interviewing him about it in August, and uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's all over the news. In the hindsight, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>this was just the tip of the iceberg, this hunch,

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<v Speaker 1>this kind of fishiness, that's right. Um, so in hot yeah, hindsight,

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<v Speaker 1>it was it was really just the tip of the iceberg.

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<v Speaker 1>Um what was actually happening? So okay, So it raises

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<v Speaker 1>the question Annie about you know, if you're a company,

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<v Speaker 1>if you very better capital firm, and you go out

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<v Speaker 1>and you're looking for investments, you have certain types of

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<v Speaker 1>due diligence, and oftentimes what you do is you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the makeup of the board, for example, or you

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<v Speaker 1>look at balance sheets and you'd get you know, you'd

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<v Speaker 1>dig under the hood. Journalists don't necessarily get to do

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<v Speaker 1>that when they're interviewing subjects unless they get access to

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<v Speaker 1>those things. Um, what adventure capitals miss? Why did venture

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<v Speaker 1>capitals miss this? I mean, one big thing venture capital

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<v Speaker 1>missed was that you know, the audit, the auditor that

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<v Speaker 1>first of all, not all pieces of this empire were audited,

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<v Speaker 1>but a piece that was was audited by Like, this

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<v Speaker 1>was a thirty two billion dollar company and they had

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<v Speaker 1>an auditor that was like so far from anyone's radar,

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<v Speaker 1>that was like the first auditor in the metaverse. Like

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I mean, no matter what you think of

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<v Speaker 1>the metaverse, that should send up a red flag to you.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're a venture capital, Zuckerberg would come out and say, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>we're still working this exactly, like you're like, come out exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's a red flag. But then, I mean, digging

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit deeper, the relationship between Alameda and f

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<v Speaker 1>t X should have been a red flag, and it

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<v Speaker 1>was out there. It was in the white paper that

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<v Speaker 1>f t X put out of it's exchange that it

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<v Speaker 1>has Alameda in the background. And by the way, Alameda

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<v Speaker 1>was founded before f t X, um there was a

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<v Speaker 1>clear linkage there. So I mean, these are all things

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<v Speaker 1>like you'd at least at a minimum want to know,

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<v Speaker 1>like what kind of access does Alameda have to your

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<v Speaker 1>exchange data, like information on your customers and what they're doing.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean to say, nothing of like sending money from

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<v Speaker 1>f t X to Alameda, UM, which is outlandish. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's kind of amazing. I do love this story. Everybody

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<v Speaker 1>should read it just got to Bler dot com. But

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<v Speaker 1>it's interesting, Like you say on ft X is relationship

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<v Speaker 1>with Alameda Bank, Ben Freed said over the summer, as

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<v Speaker 1>of today, there wasn't that much of one there, so

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<v Speaker 1>maybe who knows, maybe at that point it wasn't I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know. No, I think basically at this point we

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<v Speaker 1>like cannot believe anything he ever said on the record

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<v Speaker 1>or ever um. But looking back on his comments, it

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<v Speaker 1>was kind of like it was astonishing because we asked

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<v Speaker 1>him very specific questions about the relationship between these two

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<v Speaker 1>firms and where he lived for example, and like he

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't a to answer anything. Will help me out with

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<v Speaker 1>her because going back to what Tim says, and we've

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<v Speaker 1>been talking about this all week, that you know, venture

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<v Speaker 1>capitalists tend to love these crazy people. You know that

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<v Speaker 1>often look a little bit offbeat and are seen as

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<v Speaker 1>geniuses and brilliant, right and and are okay with it

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<v Speaker 1>and the quirkiness. And yet as you guys lay out

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<v Speaker 1>the living arrangements for f t X and Alamedia employees

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<v Speaker 1>like that, he couldn't really answer where he lived or

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<v Speaker 1>slept like you looking back, is it just like, wait

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<v Speaker 1>a minute, this is a simple question. Yeah, there are

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<v Speaker 1>pretty simple questions that I don't think people were really

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<v Speaker 1>like asking him um or they didn't care. And to

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<v Speaker 1>your point about how he looked and acted, I think

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<v Speaker 1>sometimes there's a group think that goes on with vcs

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<v Speaker 1>or anyone. But like you think, like, oh, well, I've

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<v Speaker 1>seen genius look like this before, in for example, like

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<v Speaker 1>a Mark Zuckerberg, like someone who's like not like flashy,

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<v Speaker 1>like handsome, dashing, like you know, good like media gets

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<v Speaker 1>into it too. Yeah, yeah, of course we love a

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<v Speaker 1>story correct. But but I will say any to your point,

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<v Speaker 1>I think you're spot on someone like Mark Zuckerberg. Think

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<v Speaker 1>about Facebook's origin story. Right, A bunch of folks drop

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<v Speaker 1>out of Harvard, they moved to California. They all lived

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<v Speaker 1>together like there, you know, college roommates of some sort Apple, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and a garage and Cooper Tino, those sorts of things.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's it makes sense in hindsight, but at the

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<v Speaker 1>time it's not necessarily glaring. That's true. I mean, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>A more charitable interpretation is like any startup begins from

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<v Speaker 1>you know, humble origins by definition, and I think what

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<v Speaker 1>maybe broke down along the way is how fast, how

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<v Speaker 1>rapidly this thing was growing? Right, So it took many

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<v Speaker 1>years for Apple to become Apple, it took many years

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<v Speaker 1>for Amazon to become Amazon, and this crypto thing, and

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<v Speaker 1>maybe there was no frame of reference on how fast

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<v Speaker 1>something could grow, but um, but things were moving, progressing

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<v Speaker 1>really fast. F t X started in right, and now

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<v Speaker 1>now it's as of this year, it was a thirty

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<v Speaker 1>two billion dollar company, you know, just throwing out cash

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<v Speaker 1>on all these um, all these various types of investments.

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<v Speaker 1>So I mean that rapid growth maybe they thought was

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<v Speaker 1>the new normal for crypto or something that they couldn't miss.

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<v Speaker 1>But um, it does kind of give you pause looking back, Ednie,

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<v Speaker 1>looking back, and of course, you know Monday morning quarterbacking,

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<v Speaker 1>what would you have maybe pushed him further on or

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<v Speaker 1>our team should have pushed him further on, or just

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<v Speaker 1>media in general, an investors should have pushed him further on,

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<v Speaker 1>or what would you have asked differently. That's a really

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<v Speaker 1>good question. I mean, I think that all journalists are thinking.

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<v Speaker 1>So many journalists had exposure to him or gave him

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<v Speaker 1>exposure to the world, and it's a bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>soul searching moment for the industry about the exposure that

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<v Speaker 1>he got. Um, I'm proud of the questions we asked him.

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<v Speaker 1>I never interviewed SPF other than this interview to ask

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<v Speaker 1>about alany. But of course I wish I hadn't figured

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<v Speaker 1>out that he was siphoning funds perhaps like or or

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<v Speaker 1>you know, even some of the even some of the

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<v Speaker 1>like dicier stuff under the hood. Um. Of course, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>even looking back at what we printed, like we took

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<v Speaker 1>certain things to be true that he said about like

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<v Speaker 1>how the business was doing right. We you know, we

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<v Speaker 1>said that he said that it earned a certain amount

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<v Speaker 1>of money. And now in the bankruptcy filings, even even

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<v Speaker 1>John Ray says, I don't know if any of the

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<v Speaker 1>financials I have in charge formerly oversaw the liquidation of

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<v Speaker 1>Enron and is now overseeing the same like liquidation of

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<v Speaker 1>f t X said, I've never seen like a situation

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<v Speaker 1>like this. I'm not sure if I can trust the

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<v Speaker 1>financials that I have in front of me, so knowing

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<v Speaker 1>knowing what we know now, and and all the reporting

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<v Speaker 1>that you've done and that others have done, what you've

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<v Speaker 1>read about what what Sam Bateman Freed has said? What

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<v Speaker 1>are some I don't want to use the term lie,

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<v Speaker 1>because you know they're there are different there are different

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<v Speaker 1>things associated with lying. But I mean, what are some

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<v Speaker 1>things that you saw that he said that We're definitely

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<v Speaker 1>not true? I mean, definitely not true. He told us

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<v Speaker 1>on the record that there wasn't there wasn't really a

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<v Speaker 1>relationship between FTX and Alameda. We know that that's absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>unequivocally false. No way was that true? Um he talked

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<v Speaker 1>about his living arrangements. He couldn't really answer, um, so

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<v Speaker 1>it's hard to know. I mean, I don't think at

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<v Speaker 1>all anymore that he like quickly had changed his living

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<v Speaker 1>arrangements like no way, he said, I mean, this is

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<v Speaker 1>one of the funny ones. He said that by some measures,

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<v Speaker 1>like they are the most regulated exchange in the world,

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<v Speaker 1>which is hilarious. I mean, it was even hilarious. Then

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<v Speaker 1>like to suggest that this this offshore exchange crypto exchange

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<v Speaker 1>in the Bahamas, like has any level of Like I've

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<v Speaker 1>covered exchanges, they have a lot of roles. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>a feature, not a bug of putting in a certain place.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, if you wanted to be regulated. He moved

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<v Speaker 1>the whole operationally, moved Alameda from California to Hong Kong

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<v Speaker 1>and then to the Bahamas. All right, Annie, thank you

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<v Speaker 1>so much. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

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<v Speaker 1>Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>nothing like a hardcore ultimatum to get people to get

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<v Speaker 1>off the fence. In this case, we're talking about the

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter fence, and we're talking about Elon Muskin what he

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<v Speaker 1>gave Twitter employees and ultimatum to either commit to the

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<v Speaker 1>company's new hardcore work environment or get it out. And

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<v Speaker 1>also most recently, he's saying that all of the social

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<v Speaker 1>media platform software engineers must come to its headquarters for

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<v Speaker 1>a meeting this afternoon, even urging employees to fly to

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<v Speaker 1>San Francisco to be there in person. Does everyone have

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<v Speaker 1>a private jet? I don't think the question. Kurt Wagner

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<v Speaker 1>wrote that piece along with Maxwell Adler, and Kurt Wagner

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<v Speaker 1>joins us now Viasm from San Francisco's technology reporter for

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News. He has been all over this story, Kurt.

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<v Speaker 1>Good to have you back with us. I want to

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<v Speaker 1>start with the fact that I can still use Twitter

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<v Speaker 1>right now. And last night before I went to bed,

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<v Speaker 1>it was like Twitter was on death row awaiting to

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<v Speaker 1>be executed. And I wake up this morning and there

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<v Speaker 1>it is. It still works. What's going on? Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean last night Twitter was like a very sad place

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<v Speaker 1>if you if you like the product and use it,

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<v Speaker 1>because you're right, it felt like everyone was just you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the night before the world ending or something like that. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>but Twitter is working. You know. Everything we are hearing

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<v Speaker 1>in in in uh you know reporting is that there

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<v Speaker 1>was a lot of concern that because there's been so

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<v Speaker 1>many people who have left, that eventually there's going to

0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:47.240
<v Speaker 1>be this you know, um technical kind of cascade, right

0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:49.240
<v Speaker 1>that maybe one part of the service is going to

0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:51.719
<v Speaker 1>have a bug and you know it's going to lead

0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:55.040
<v Speaker 1>to other features not working, and that eventually we're going

0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:58.480
<v Speaker 1>to start to see like long outages or it's certainly

0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:00.360
<v Speaker 1>gonna be hard for them to ship any new teachers

0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:02.200
<v Speaker 1>because they're going to be just in maintenance mode this

0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:05.400
<v Speaker 1>whole time. But for today, of course, it seems to

0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:07.440
<v Speaker 1>still be working, and I certainly hope that's the case

0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:10.040
<v Speaker 1>going forward. It does feel though, like this is going

0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:12.240
<v Speaker 1>to be something that that slowly starts to happen over

0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:13.840
<v Speaker 1>the next couple of weeks. I mean, how do we

0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:16.200
<v Speaker 1>mean not a publicly held company, so it's kind of

0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:19.840
<v Speaker 1>weird now we don't have perhaps the transparency, visibility and

0:12:19.960 --> 0:12:21.840
<v Speaker 1>right ealing can kind of say whatever he wants, it

0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:24.400
<v Speaker 1>feels like about this company. But what are you hearing

0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:27.040
<v Speaker 1>from folks who are inside the company and for those

0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:29.040
<v Speaker 1>of us who use Twitter, you know about kind of

0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:33.440
<v Speaker 1>the reliability of this platform. Yeah, I mean, these these concerns,

0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:35.120
<v Speaker 1>the ones that I just shared with you, are are

0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:38.200
<v Speaker 1>coming from those people, right, Like these are people who

0:12:38.200 --> 0:12:41.120
<v Speaker 1>are much smarter about the engineering and about the tech

0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:44.400
<v Speaker 1>than I am. Right, and they're leaving the company, and

0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:48.000
<v Speaker 1>they're saying we're not sure who's left, right, Like, Hey,

0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:50.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm I was on a team that helped, you know,

0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:53.760
<v Speaker 1>keep the timeline running, and everyone on my team is gone. Right, Like,

0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:56.000
<v Speaker 1>that's the kind those are the kinds of stories that

0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:58.760
<v Speaker 1>we're starting to hear from people, right. And I think

0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:01.839
<v Speaker 1>the argument from you know, supporters of Evan has been well,

0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.680
<v Speaker 1>Twitter used to be much smaller than it is now

0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:06.800
<v Speaker 1>and it was still abled to operate, And that's of

0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:10.000
<v Speaker 1>course very true. I think it's very different to you know,

0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:14.200
<v Speaker 1>build up to let's say two thousand employees versus start

0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:17.160
<v Speaker 1>at seven thousand and then ripped five thousand of those

0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:19.280
<v Speaker 1>people out within a two week stretch, right. It just

0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:22.600
<v Speaker 1>creates a lot of chaos and uncertainty and so um,

0:13:22.640 --> 0:13:24.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, this is where the concern lies that maybe

0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:26.600
<v Speaker 1>the product isn't going to be as stable as it

0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:28.240
<v Speaker 1>should be. And there's a really kind of an a

0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:31.439
<v Speaker 1>side story was that Jaguar land rover to recruit fire,

0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:33.880
<v Speaker 1>Twitter and Facebook workers. I mean there's companies out there saying,

0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:36.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, on a city of San Francisco's coming out

0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:39.440
<v Speaker 1>and saying, hey, we've got positions. I would imagine, though, Kurt,

0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:42.319
<v Speaker 1>that those positions don't pay what you know Twitter would

0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:44.880
<v Speaker 1>pay for engineers. Uh, Kurt, I don't know how everyone's

0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:46.480
<v Speaker 1>supposed to go to the office today. If the office

0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:49.760
<v Speaker 1>is closed. Yeah, you you and me both right. So

0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:53.160
<v Speaker 1>last night there was a company wide email that said, uh,

0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:56.840
<v Speaker 1>we're closing the offices, were restricting badge access. And the

0:13:56.880 --> 0:13:59.880
<v Speaker 1>explanation I got from some folks who received that em

0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:02.760
<v Speaker 1>know was the feeling was that they don't exactly know

0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:06.240
<v Speaker 1>who still works at Twitter right now because so many people, um,

0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:11.840
<v Speaker 1>you know it didn't accept the muskus asked to be hardcore,

0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:14.679
<v Speaker 1>and so they're sort of sifting through, like, Okay, who

0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:17.480
<v Speaker 1>actually still works here? So, for example, folks who are

0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 1>not planning to work at Twitter any longer still have

0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:22.480
<v Speaker 1>access to their email. It's still have access to Slack

0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:25.000
<v Speaker 1>things like that, and so thinking once they closed the

0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:27.600
<v Speaker 1>office in order to sort of figure out, okay, you know,

0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:29.600
<v Speaker 1>who should still have access to this so we don't

0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:32.200
<v Speaker 1>have rogue employees kind of coming in. But you know,

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:34.280
<v Speaker 1>then he says, today, hey, everyone needs to show up

0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:37.200
<v Speaker 1>on the tenth floor to uh have an in person meeting.

0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:39.680
<v Speaker 1>And it's like, well, which one is it is the

0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:43.280
<v Speaker 1>office closing, badge access is revoked or is everyone's supposed

0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:46.080
<v Speaker 1>to be there in person today. It's just it's so

0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:49.560
<v Speaker 1>confusing and chaotic right now, guys and it's people who

0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:53.360
<v Speaker 1>work at Twitter are really frustrated, as you can imagine

0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:55.200
<v Speaker 1>with everything that's been going on. Well, and you have

0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:58.320
<v Speaker 1>to wonder what listen. I know Ellen is a smart dude,

0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:00.360
<v Speaker 1>but you have to wonder he paid forty a billion

0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:02.560
<v Speaker 1>dollars with this company, right, and it feels like the

0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:05.320
<v Speaker 1>value potentially it was a publicly held company would be,

0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:09.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, continuing to go to the downside. Just twenty seconds.

0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:10.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, do we have any idea of what his

0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:16.000
<v Speaker 1>longer term thinking is here? Just quickly, no quick cancers, Now,

0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:17.640
<v Speaker 1>I don't I really don't. I mean you to talk

0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:20.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot about maybe building payments into Twitter. That's about

0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:24.640
<v Speaker 1>as as detailed as I could Right now. I'm just chuckling, Kirk,

0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:26.560
<v Speaker 1>because I'm thinking about your weekend that's going to be

0:15:26.960 --> 0:15:29.440
<v Speaker 1>doing a lot of work. What weekend, weekend or their

0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:33.000
<v Speaker 1>weekends or holidays anymore. I don't think not for your

0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:38.440
<v Speaker 1>Twitter employees or Elon Musk, Kurt. This is Bloomberg Business

0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:42.320
<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic

0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:47.800
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. We know wrapping up in Egypt, A

0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:50.720
<v Speaker 1>lot of headlines came out of that and with that

0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 1>as a backdrop, Um, there's a story you'll find in

0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:56.160
<v Speaker 1>the new issue Bloomberg business Week magazine that's now out

0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:58.640
<v Speaker 1>on news stands, online, and on the Bloomberg. It is

0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:02.600
<v Speaker 1>about the nation caught in the cross hairs of climate change.

0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:06.320
<v Speaker 1>It's getting rich and here's the kick on oil, It's

0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:08.480
<v Speaker 1>getting rich on coil. This story happens to also be

0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:11.720
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Big Take today. The story written by Monte Real,

0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:15.120
<v Speaker 1>senior investigations reporter at Bloomberg News. He joins us via

0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:17.960
<v Speaker 1>zoom from Chicago. Also with us this afternoon is Joel Webber.

0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:21.200
<v Speaker 1>He's the editor of Bloomberg business Week. He's with us

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:24.800
<v Speaker 1>in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. Joel, I want to

0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:27.680
<v Speaker 1>start off with you, um, because it is today's Big Take.

0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:29.880
<v Speaker 1>It's in the upcoming issue or the current issue of

0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:35.480
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week magazine. Um, it's the nation is between

0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:38.200
<v Speaker 1>a rock and a hard place right now, because so

0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:40.920
<v Speaker 1>drill for oil and hope for the best. And that's

0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:44.400
<v Speaker 1>basically what the I think the story really boils under.

0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:48.280
<v Speaker 1>And that is an incredible paradox. And as Monty writes,

0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:51.440
<v Speaker 1>the coastline of the city of this country is is

0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:56.400
<v Speaker 1>actually below sea level, so rising sees present obviously a

0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.840
<v Speaker 1>huge challenge. It is historically one of the poorest countries

0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:03.160
<v Speaker 1>the world. Um. And yet with this deal with x On,

0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:08.600
<v Speaker 1>they find themselves like potentially uh you know, with uh

0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:11.679
<v Speaker 1>kind of a one shot at at an anormous amount

0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:15.640
<v Speaker 1>of wealth and could pull themselves out of that, um poverty.

0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:18.840
<v Speaker 1>But to do so also means that here we are

0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:22.080
<v Speaker 1>in the world of climate change, and it puts the

0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:25.280
<v Speaker 1>whole country at jeopardy to to walk this path. So,

0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:32.880
<v Speaker 1>so Monty incredible story. Uh. How is this country, uh,

0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:36.120
<v Speaker 1>which we call the last petro state, how is how

0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:40.320
<v Speaker 1>is it uh navigating this challenge because this has been

0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:42.720
<v Speaker 1>a long time in the making and only now have

0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:46.720
<v Speaker 1>they really started to accelerate how much oil they're extracting

0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 1>from the country. Yeah. Um, so this discovery of all

0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:56.600
<v Speaker 1>this oils came in so it's been about seven years now, um.

0:17:57.040 --> 0:17:59.240
<v Speaker 1>And I think just to put this in a little

0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:02.680
<v Speaker 1>bit of contact, Guyana is really really small. There's only

0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:06.800
<v Speaker 1>about eight hundred thousand people in the whole country. And

0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:10.760
<v Speaker 1>to put its economy in perspective, the size of its

0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:14.719
<v Speaker 1>economy and the economic output traditionally has been about you know,

0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:18.399
<v Speaker 1>one tenth of an average American mid size city. So

0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:20.879
<v Speaker 1>it's a very very small economy we're talking about. And

0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:24.800
<v Speaker 1>this is a huge, you know windfall of oil. It's

0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:29.600
<v Speaker 1>billions of barrels of it. And so the leaders of Guyana,

0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:33.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, looked at this potential windfall, which is you know,

0:18:33.600 --> 0:18:38.280
<v Speaker 1>potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and politically they

0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:41.879
<v Speaker 1>could not pass up the chance to drill this, and

0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:47.920
<v Speaker 1>so they began drilling about three years ago. And since then,

0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:52.600
<v Speaker 1>Guyana has become the fastest growing economy in the world. Um.

0:18:52.600 --> 0:18:55.560
<v Speaker 1>It's capital budget just in the last year, I think

0:18:55.560 --> 0:19:00.280
<v Speaker 1>grew more than and um. So with all of this

0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:04.200
<v Speaker 1>road of though, there are critics who are saying that

0:19:04.880 --> 0:19:08.160
<v Speaker 1>the oil drilling has kind of spun out of control already.

0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:12.280
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of complaints that environmental regulations have kind

0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:15.399
<v Speaker 1>of been tossed to the wayside um, and there's a

0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:18.760
<v Speaker 1>lot of criticism of the contract itself with Excellent Mobil,

0:19:19.359 --> 0:19:21.720
<v Speaker 1>which is drilling new at all um. A lot of

0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:25.399
<v Speaker 1>people say that in terms of that contract were lopsided

0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:29.280
<v Speaker 1>in favor of the of the company at the expense

0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:33.440
<v Speaker 1>of the residents of the country. Hey, Monty, I was

0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:35.919
<v Speaker 1>pretty struck when you wrote about the ecology of the

0:19:35.960 --> 0:19:39.880
<v Speaker 1>island and what what there is in the rainforest where

0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:42.679
<v Speaker 1>people don't live. Talk a little bit about what you

0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:45.720
<v Speaker 1>see there and and and really this area of the

0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:49.120
<v Speaker 1>world and what it has to offer. Yeah, So Guyana

0:19:49.320 --> 0:19:52.720
<v Speaker 1>is you know, it is one of the most sparsely

0:19:52.760 --> 0:19:56.880
<v Speaker 1>populated countries in the Western Hemisphere. And you know, part

0:19:56.920 --> 0:19:58.919
<v Speaker 1>of the reason for that is of those eight hundred

0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:03.280
<v Speaker 1>thousand people, not them live right along the coast in

0:20:03.359 --> 0:20:06.280
<v Speaker 1>a narrow strip, and so a lot of the interior

0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:12.160
<v Speaker 1>of the country is forested. It's about eight covered in forest.

0:20:12.280 --> 0:20:15.960
<v Speaker 1>And so there are just the unbelievably beautiful parts of

0:20:16.000 --> 0:20:21.280
<v Speaker 1>Guyana and there are these you know, big plateaus with waterfalls. Um,

0:20:21.400 --> 0:20:24.199
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's all sorts of endangered species there. So

0:20:24.240 --> 0:20:28.199
<v Speaker 1>it's really this kind of ecological treasure. And one of

0:20:28.240 --> 0:20:31.720
<v Speaker 1>the ironies of the story is that Guyana, before they

0:20:31.760 --> 0:20:36.320
<v Speaker 1>embraced drilling oil, they were seen as a country that

0:20:36.480 --> 0:20:43.760
<v Speaker 1>was really leading UM efforts at conservation and ecological confservation particularly.

0:20:44.520 --> 0:20:46.080
<v Speaker 1>So want to help me out here, because in your

0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:49.760
<v Speaker 1>report you say that Guyana's leaders have promised to create

0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:53.640
<v Speaker 1>a different kind of petro state, an environmentally sustainable one

0:20:53.720 --> 0:20:56.360
<v Speaker 1>that uses oil revenue to build a more adorable infrastructure

0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:59.639
<v Speaker 1>powered by renewable energy. Are they not doing that or

0:20:59.720 --> 0:21:04.000
<v Speaker 1>is that ultimately where they're going? Well, that's where they

0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:08.639
<v Speaker 1>say they're going. They've they've how do they plan? What's that?

0:21:08.840 --> 0:21:12.520
<v Speaker 1>How do they do that? Well, so they have a

0:21:12.560 --> 0:21:17.520
<v Speaker 1>plan that's um called the Low Carbon Development Strategy, and

0:21:17.600 --> 0:21:21.840
<v Speaker 1>so what they want to do is use much of

0:21:21.880 --> 0:21:26.360
<v Speaker 1>the oil revenue to build one infrastructure to kind of

0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:30.120
<v Speaker 1>protect against climate change. And that would include things like

0:21:30.600 --> 0:21:34.280
<v Speaker 1>reinforcing the sea wall. There's a sea wall right now

0:21:34.960 --> 0:21:38.520
<v Speaker 1>that runs along two miles of coastline and that that

0:21:38.600 --> 0:21:44.840
<v Speaker 1>needs to be reinforced and expanded because the Caribbean is

0:21:45.280 --> 0:21:49.000
<v Speaker 1>projected to rise, um, you know, up to six feet

0:21:49.040 --> 0:21:52.800
<v Speaker 1>by the century if if things stay on the course

0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:55.080
<v Speaker 1>as they are. So part of the money would go

0:21:55.160 --> 0:21:58.119
<v Speaker 1>to infrastructure like that, part of it would go to

0:21:59.280 --> 0:22:02.880
<v Speaker 1>bill um building basically a new energy grid that would

0:22:02.880 --> 0:22:06.560
<v Speaker 1>be a post oil energy grid. So the leaders say

0:22:06.600 --> 0:22:09.200
<v Speaker 1>that they want to use this money, basically use oil

0:22:09.200 --> 0:22:14.919
<v Speaker 1>money to finance the transition away from one and it

0:22:15.040 --> 0:22:21.199
<v Speaker 1>sounds paradoxical and um, you know it sounds you know,

0:22:21.280 --> 0:22:27.160
<v Speaker 1>on first blushed, I guess like something that goes against

0:22:27.359 --> 0:22:31.000
<v Speaker 1>most you know, kind of environmental thinking, like to embrace

0:22:31.359 --> 0:22:36.840
<v Speaker 1>oil production. Um you know this comes. Yeah, it comes

0:22:36.920 --> 0:22:40.800
<v Speaker 1>years after the developed countries of the world have promised

0:22:40.800 --> 0:22:43.520
<v Speaker 1>to wean themselves off of the oil. The Guyana will

0:22:43.760 --> 0:22:47.960
<v Speaker 1>will make the argument that it's not fair to a

0:22:48.000 --> 0:22:52.240
<v Speaker 1>developing country, um to not be able to have some

0:22:52.359 --> 0:22:56.320
<v Speaker 1>of the benefits from the oil industry when the developed

0:22:56.400 --> 0:23:01.320
<v Speaker 1>world has benefited from industrialisay Asian and the benefits of

0:23:02.000 --> 0:23:07.120
<v Speaker 1>fossil fuels and contributed to line shared climate change, which

0:23:07.119 --> 0:23:12.600
<v Speaker 1>countries like Guyana right stuck with the Well, I have

0:23:12.680 --> 0:23:15.199
<v Speaker 1>to say so much in this story. Um, it's a

0:23:15.200 --> 0:23:17.040
<v Speaker 1>really great deep breed and I'm thinking even for this

0:23:17.080 --> 0:23:21.040
<v Speaker 1>weekend of the upcoming holiday weekend, UM, really worth getting into.

0:23:21.080 --> 0:23:22.960
<v Speaker 1>And this is the quandry that you find any developing

0:23:23.040 --> 0:23:26.600
<v Speaker 1>nations um in Uh, thank you so much. Monte Real,

0:23:26.680 --> 0:23:29.600
<v Speaker 1>Senior investigations reporter at Bloomberg News. Joining us via zoom

0:23:29.600 --> 0:23:33.040
<v Speaker 1>in Chicago. Joe Weber, editor of Bloomberg Business Week, joining

0:23:33.119 --> 0:23:34.800
<v Speaker 1>us right here in our studio of the new wi

0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:36.760
<v Speaker 1>sho of Bloomberg Business Week. Check it out. It is

0:23:36.920 --> 0:23:40.360
<v Speaker 1>out on newsstands, online, and on the Bloomberg terminal. You're

0:23:40.400 --> 0:23:44.399
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

0:23:44.440 --> 0:23:48.560
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. It's really all

0:23:48.560 --> 0:23:51.080
<v Speaker 1>about crypto. Kind of perfect considering the last couple of

0:23:51.080 --> 0:23:54.280
<v Speaker 1>weeks in the collapse of f t X and the undoing,

0:23:54.320 --> 0:23:56.960
<v Speaker 1>if you will, of SPF and his empire. And in

0:23:57.040 --> 0:23:59.879
<v Speaker 1>our weekly crypto segment, we've got an entrepreneur in Trench

0:24:00.000 --> 0:24:02.480
<v Speaker 1>to in the crypto world. Yeah, we're talking to Alexander Dreyfus,

0:24:02.560 --> 0:24:04.720
<v Speaker 1>the founder and CEO of it's a global blockchain company,

0:24:04.720 --> 0:24:07.320
<v Speaker 1>it's called Chili's and then also the CEO of the

0:24:07.359 --> 0:24:11.359
<v Speaker 1>sports app socio dot Com. Alexander joins us via zoom

0:24:11.359 --> 0:24:15.600
<v Speaker 1>from Malta this afternoon. Alexander, good to have you with us. Um.

0:24:15.640 --> 0:24:19.640
<v Speaker 1>First of all, Malta. Why are you in Malta? Very

0:24:19.680 --> 0:24:22.960
<v Speaker 1>much for the invitation. I've been in Malta for sixteen years,

0:24:23.080 --> 0:24:25.360
<v Speaker 1>even though you public guess that I have a French accent,

0:24:26.359 --> 0:24:28.879
<v Speaker 1>and I've been there just because I was working in

0:24:28.960 --> 0:24:33.280
<v Speaker 1>the online gaming industry for fifteen years before cryptos. So

0:24:33.400 --> 0:24:35.520
<v Speaker 1>that was the place where I moved and I'm happy

0:24:35.560 --> 0:24:37.800
<v Speaker 1>to be here. Well, tell us a little bit about

0:24:37.840 --> 0:24:40.080
<v Speaker 1>your companies, because from what I understand is as to

0:24:40.200 --> 0:24:43.760
<v Speaker 1>mention your founder and CEO of the global blockchain company Chills,

0:24:43.800 --> 0:24:47.320
<v Speaker 1>and I hope we're saying it correctly. Are we actually

0:24:47.440 --> 0:24:50.400
<v Speaker 1>do it perfectly? Okay, we're all worried. We did practice

0:24:50.400 --> 0:24:54.639
<v Speaker 1>a lot. And then you've got um your CEO of

0:24:54.680 --> 0:24:57.800
<v Speaker 1>socios dot com and Socios is powered by chilis our

0:24:57.880 --> 0:25:00.679
<v Speaker 1>chill is UM. So help me out and and forgive

0:25:00.720 --> 0:25:02.680
<v Speaker 1>me because the past two weeks and f t X

0:25:02.720 --> 0:25:05.919
<v Speaker 1>and SBF, you know, we are realizing that there's not

0:25:05.960 --> 0:25:08.879
<v Speaker 1>always so much transparency when it comes to things in

0:25:08.920 --> 0:25:12.320
<v Speaker 1>the crypto world. So explain if you were the relationships

0:25:12.359 --> 0:25:16.160
<v Speaker 1>within those two companies that you are CEO both CEO

0:25:16.280 --> 0:25:21.280
<v Speaker 1>of Yes, it's pretty easy. So first of all, uh,

0:25:21.359 --> 0:25:24.720
<v Speaker 1>we are a blockchain. ChIL is a blockchain number thirtiest

0:25:25.119 --> 0:25:27.800
<v Speaker 1>today thing in the in the rankings. And what we

0:25:27.880 --> 0:25:30.960
<v Speaker 1>provide is an infrastructure for the sports industry to create

0:25:31.000 --> 0:25:34.640
<v Speaker 1>a concept that we invented called fanto Kinds and these

0:25:34.720 --> 0:25:38.639
<v Speaker 1>fantokends are used on a consumer app called socials dot

0:25:38.720 --> 0:25:41.440
<v Speaker 1>com which has like one point eight million users something

0:25:41.480 --> 0:25:44.919
<v Speaker 1>like that. And our business is to try to help

0:25:45.320 --> 0:25:48.440
<v Speaker 1>sports property all over the world to engage and monitors

0:25:48.520 --> 0:25:50.600
<v Speaker 1>their fan base. And the idea is that a fund

0:25:50.680 --> 0:25:53.040
<v Speaker 1>can buy a fanto can that gives them the right

0:25:53.280 --> 0:25:55.600
<v Speaker 1>to vote on some decision of the club and get

0:25:55.640 --> 0:25:59.680
<v Speaker 1>some like membership benefits um provided by the team of

0:25:59.840 --> 0:26:02.840
<v Speaker 1>like by us. That's how it started for a half

0:26:02.920 --> 0:26:04.680
<v Speaker 1>years ago and now we are like we work with

0:26:04.720 --> 0:26:08.520
<v Speaker 1>a hundred seventy teams all over the world, three hundred employees, etcetera.

0:26:09.160 --> 0:26:12.960
<v Speaker 1>And how how many have you sold a lot? We

0:26:13.040 --> 0:26:17.719
<v Speaker 1>have seventy teams launched, I will say, and it generated

0:26:17.720 --> 0:26:19.600
<v Speaker 1>a few hundred millions of dollar probably for the last

0:26:19.600 --> 0:26:22.199
<v Speaker 1>two years. Actually, why Alexander, does it have to be

0:26:22.240 --> 0:26:25.960
<v Speaker 1>on the blockchain? Why can't teams do this without blockchain technology?

0:26:26.440 --> 0:26:30.480
<v Speaker 1>I love that question. So the reality is that sports

0:26:30.520 --> 0:26:32.240
<v Speaker 1>fan or not in the stadium, not in the city,

0:26:32.320 --> 0:26:34.680
<v Speaker 1>not even in the country of the team they were supporting.

0:26:34.680 --> 0:26:37.160
<v Speaker 1>So we were looking to create something that was both

0:26:37.520 --> 0:26:40.160
<v Speaker 1>valuable for a fun and scalable for a team. And

0:26:40.280 --> 0:26:42.600
<v Speaker 1>what is valuable for a fun is to have a

0:26:42.680 --> 0:26:45.040
<v Speaker 1>voice to be recognized. So the fact that you can

0:26:45.240 --> 0:26:48.520
<v Speaker 1>vote on the blockchain, unlike the sms that you send,

0:26:48.560 --> 0:26:50.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, on the TV show a Saturday night, where

0:26:50.840 --> 0:26:54.520
<v Speaker 1>you have absolutely zero transparency about who's gonna be voted

0:26:54.560 --> 0:26:58.159
<v Speaker 1>out on the TV show. Here the voting of you

0:26:58.560 --> 0:27:01.520
<v Speaker 1>deciding as a fun something related to your team is

0:27:01.560 --> 0:27:03.960
<v Speaker 1>on the blockshin And that was actually the foundation of

0:27:04.040 --> 0:27:06.920
<v Speaker 1>what we've done. So these fan tokens that you said

0:27:06.960 --> 0:27:10.040
<v Speaker 1>you've sold and generated a few hundred million dollars, I

0:27:10.040 --> 0:27:15.239
<v Speaker 1>guess in revenue. I'm assuming those fan coins. Can they

0:27:15.280 --> 0:27:19.440
<v Speaker 1>be bought back by fans. Yes, because they're they're on

0:27:19.480 --> 0:27:22.360
<v Speaker 1>the blockchain, because there are digital assets, they are treadible,

0:27:22.560 --> 0:27:25.280
<v Speaker 1>and therefore they are available to the market where more

0:27:25.320 --> 0:27:27.800
<v Speaker 1>or less anywhere in the world. So and in terms

0:27:27.840 --> 0:27:30.280
<v Speaker 1>of and again forgive me, because we're dealing with the

0:27:30.320 --> 0:27:34.560
<v Speaker 1>backtrap of the last two weeks. So those coins, do

0:27:34.600 --> 0:27:36.919
<v Speaker 1>you keep fifty of the like? Do you do you

0:27:37.000 --> 0:27:39.600
<v Speaker 1>leverage them? Do you do something with those coins? I'm

0:27:39.600 --> 0:27:41.960
<v Speaker 1>just curious if all of a sudden everybody that has

0:27:42.320 --> 0:27:44.160
<v Speaker 1>fan coins came in and said I want to buy

0:27:44.200 --> 0:27:48.119
<v Speaker 1>them back, could you do it? No, you cannot readem them.

0:27:48.160 --> 0:27:50.240
<v Speaker 1>It's you know, it's like a membership program. Wants you

0:27:50.320 --> 0:27:52.159
<v Speaker 1>buy it, it's yours. If you want to sell it

0:27:52.200 --> 0:27:54.560
<v Speaker 1>to someone else, you can see that a little bit

0:27:54.560 --> 0:27:57.959
<v Speaker 1>as a collectible. There is nothing that is it's not redeemable,

0:27:58.119 --> 0:28:01.480
<v Speaker 1>there is no collateral. Is just a digital membership that

0:28:01.560 --> 0:28:04.680
<v Speaker 1>has scarcity where fans can trade it against each other

0:28:04.800 --> 0:28:06.960
<v Speaker 1>if they want. And so how many members do you have?

0:28:07.840 --> 0:28:11.679
<v Speaker 1>One point eight million? One point eight million? Okay, hey Alexander. Again,

0:28:11.920 --> 0:28:13.880
<v Speaker 1>with the context of everything that's happened the last two weeks,

0:28:13.880 --> 0:28:15.879
<v Speaker 1>I mean, this has certainly been a momentous time when

0:28:15.960 --> 0:28:18.479
<v Speaker 1>it comes to web three, when it comes to everything

0:28:18.480 --> 0:28:21.879
<v Speaker 1>that's even tertiarily related to crypto. I'm just wondering what

0:28:21.920 --> 0:28:24.240
<v Speaker 1>that does to your business, the way that you're watching

0:28:24.240 --> 0:28:27.520
<v Speaker 1>this news unfold from f t X, from finance and

0:28:27.560 --> 0:28:30.600
<v Speaker 1>the like. Does it damage the reputation of the industry

0:28:30.640 --> 0:28:33.760
<v Speaker 1>and to to the extent that it hits you, It's

0:28:33.840 --> 0:28:36.680
<v Speaker 1>disappointing for me as an entrepreneur because I met some

0:28:36.840 --> 0:28:40.160
<v Speaker 1>actually have been in Bahamas, so I know them very well.

0:28:41.400 --> 0:28:43.160
<v Speaker 1>I like to say to our and that's what I

0:28:43.160 --> 0:28:46.200
<v Speaker 1>said to our colleagues, it doesn't impact us, but it

0:28:46.280 --> 0:28:48.800
<v Speaker 1>affects us. It doesn't impact us as a business because

0:28:48.800 --> 0:28:51.720
<v Speaker 1>we have no relationship we have we we had zero exposure.

0:28:52.040 --> 0:28:55.600
<v Speaker 1>But it affects us obviously as an industry because of

0:28:55.600 --> 0:28:58.400
<v Speaker 1>course we are in a crypto space. Having said so,

0:28:58.720 --> 0:29:00.320
<v Speaker 1>we are not that, we are not an ex change.

0:29:00.440 --> 0:29:03.200
<v Speaker 1>We're not in a business of lending money. We're on

0:29:03.280 --> 0:29:06.240
<v Speaker 1>a sports space. Could go to zero tomorrow morning, we

0:29:06.240 --> 0:29:08.440
<v Speaker 1>will still have a business. And that's a big difference.

0:29:08.720 --> 0:29:10.880
<v Speaker 1>And what I think is gonna we're gonna realize in

0:29:10.880 --> 0:29:13.520
<v Speaker 1>the next hopefully six six months to one year, is

0:29:13.880 --> 0:29:17.080
<v Speaker 1>blockchain sascripto is not just about finance. There are other

0:29:17.240 --> 0:29:21.520
<v Speaker 1>utility or their application and offully one of us is this, Hey, Alexander,

0:29:21.600 --> 0:29:26.040
<v Speaker 1>just got about thirty seconds. Have you talked to SPF? Definitely?

0:29:26.080 --> 0:29:29.600
<v Speaker 1>Not definitely. Are you a little angry though, as someone

0:29:29.640 --> 0:29:32.600
<v Speaker 1>who's also kind of in this world to see what

0:29:32.720 --> 0:29:37.920
<v Speaker 1>has happened just quickly, I'm frustrated and disappointed because it

0:29:38.120 --> 0:29:41.480
<v Speaker 1>damaged an industry that didn't need it. That alright, we're

0:29:41.480 --> 0:29:43.480
<v Speaker 1>gonna we're gonna leave it there. Look forward to hearing

0:29:43.480 --> 0:29:46.640
<v Speaker 1>more about your business going forward. Alexander Dreyfus, founder and

0:29:46.680 --> 0:29:49.880
<v Speaker 1>CEO of the global blockchain company Chill is Uh. He's

0:29:49.920 --> 0:29:52.560
<v Speaker 1>also CEO of the blockchain platform for fan engagement and

0:29:52.560 --> 0:29:55.840
<v Speaker 1>fan monetization of sports team at socio dot Com Socios,

0:29:55.880 --> 0:29:58.360
<v Speaker 1>as we mentioned, is powered by Chills. Just so that

0:29:58.400 --> 0:30:01.760
<v Speaker 1>we understand that relationship. And Alexander joining us via zoom

0:30:01.840 --> 0:30:11.120
<v Speaker 1>in Malta. I'm broom journal. Yeah, but you let me drive? No, no, no,

0:30:11.160 --> 0:30:20.680
<v Speaker 1>who's please gravels? I want to drive. It's a good question.

0:30:21.040 --> 0:30:29.640
<v Speaker 1>Good drive. This is the drive to the clothes on

0:30:29.880 --> 0:30:33.720
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. All right, everybody, just about ten minutes left

0:30:33.720 --> 0:30:36.360
<v Speaker 1>in today's trading session. We are getting ready to wrap

0:30:36.440 --> 0:30:39.320
<v Speaker 1>up the day as well as the trading week. And

0:30:39.520 --> 0:30:42.760
<v Speaker 1>uh we've seen some buying once again into uh these

0:30:42.840 --> 0:30:45.320
<v Speaker 1>last few minutes. That means everything in terms of those

0:30:45.320 --> 0:30:47.520
<v Speaker 1>major equity averages were now in the green so as

0:30:47.560 --> 0:30:50.840
<v Speaker 1>Charlie mentioned, um, not at our highs, although it looks

0:30:50.840 --> 0:30:54.000
<v Speaker 1>like the down the SNP getting close, SMP though up

0:30:54.040 --> 0:30:55.800
<v Speaker 1>seven tents of a percent. Same story for the Dow

0:30:55.880 --> 0:30:58.280
<v Speaker 1>Jones Industrial Average and the NASA just eating out a

0:30:58.280 --> 0:31:00.360
<v Speaker 1>little bit of a game and it's gonna be for

0:31:00.360 --> 0:31:02.280
<v Speaker 1>the week, Carol, The doubt more than one tenth of

0:31:02.280 --> 0:31:05.680
<v Speaker 1>one percent if it sticks right here, barely barely. Let's

0:31:05.680 --> 0:31:08.040
<v Speaker 1>get into with Aaron Kennon, co founder and CEO of

0:31:08.080 --> 0:31:10.120
<v Speaker 1>Clear Harbor Asset Management. They've out of over a billion

0:31:10.160 --> 0:31:13.400
<v Speaker 1>dollars in assets under management. Aaron joined us this afternoon

0:31:13.400 --> 0:31:15.960
<v Speaker 1>once again from Stanford, Connecticut. You can see him if

0:31:16.000 --> 0:31:19.800
<v Speaker 1>you're watching on quick Take or on YouTube. Aaron, good

0:31:19.840 --> 0:31:22.480
<v Speaker 1>to have you with us this afternoon. How are you doing?

0:31:22.560 --> 0:31:24.440
<v Speaker 1>Just great, Tim, Thanks for having me back. So what's

0:31:24.440 --> 0:31:27.520
<v Speaker 1>going on with the markets right now? Because Carol mentioned

0:31:27.600 --> 0:31:30.520
<v Speaker 1>volatility today. Throughout much of the day, we saw stocks

0:31:30.560 --> 0:31:32.280
<v Speaker 1>moving between gains and losses. But we're seeing a little

0:31:32.280 --> 0:31:35.960
<v Speaker 1>bit of conviction right now. What's your take? Yeah, I mean, clearly,

0:31:36.080 --> 0:31:39.840
<v Speaker 1>we've don't take much away from a low voalt volume

0:31:39.920 --> 0:31:43.440
<v Speaker 1>day ahead of ahead of Thanksgiving on a Friday. But um,

0:31:43.480 --> 0:31:44.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, if you look at just sort of on

0:31:44.760 --> 0:31:48.560
<v Speaker 1>a quarter to date basis just taking a taking a

0:31:48.600 --> 0:31:52.200
<v Speaker 1>slightly higher level view, clearly, you know, we've seen the

0:31:52.280 --> 0:31:56.240
<v Speaker 1>dollar finally depreciate about seven percent from the peak from

0:31:56.280 --> 0:31:59.080
<v Speaker 1>late September, and on the heels of that we saw

0:31:59.160 --> 0:32:02.520
<v Speaker 1>a nice risk trade occur over over that period. So

0:32:02.800 --> 0:32:05.240
<v Speaker 1>equities are up ten eleven twelve percent depending on the

0:32:05.280 --> 0:32:08.120
<v Speaker 1>index of the global indices are up about eleven almost

0:32:08.120 --> 0:32:10.800
<v Speaker 1>twelve percent. US smps up a little over ten percent

0:32:10.840 --> 0:32:13.880
<v Speaker 1>over that period, and and even the bond markets called

0:32:14.040 --> 0:32:17.280
<v Speaker 1>a reasonable bit the broad sort of Bloomberg aggregate up

0:32:17.520 --> 0:32:21.040
<v Speaker 1>one point one. So, um, you know, we think that's

0:32:21.120 --> 0:32:23.680
<v Speaker 1>that that sort of augurs reasonably well. The Fed did

0:32:23.680 --> 0:32:25.640
<v Speaker 1>a lot of job owning this week, Tim and Carroll,

0:32:25.680 --> 0:32:27.480
<v Speaker 1>as we saw, you know, trying to keep it's even

0:32:27.480 --> 0:32:31.040
<v Speaker 1>hard to job owning. Yeah, that's right, I mean, trying

0:32:31.040 --> 0:32:34.200
<v Speaker 1>to keep the sort of hawkish tone embedded in the market.

0:32:34.280 --> 0:32:36.800
<v Speaker 1>But you know, the market is currently pricing another hundred

0:32:36.840 --> 0:32:40.080
<v Speaker 1>basis points. They've already done four hundred and so we're

0:32:40.160 --> 0:32:42.360
<v Speaker 1>the latter innings of of a tightening cycle, and we're

0:32:42.360 --> 0:32:46.520
<v Speaker 1>starting to see incipient levels of deceleration on inflation, and so,

0:32:47.040 --> 0:32:49.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think that bodes well for you know,

0:32:49.360 --> 0:32:50.720
<v Speaker 1>the Fed to get out of our way for at

0:32:50.800 --> 0:32:52.760
<v Speaker 1>least the back half of two thousand and twenty three.

0:32:53.000 --> 0:32:55.360
<v Speaker 1>I do feel the narrative has definitely changed from Fed

0:32:55.520 --> 0:32:58.560
<v Speaker 1>Fed officials um, Aaron, even if they're not using the

0:32:58.560 --> 0:33:01.280
<v Speaker 1>word pivot there of talking around it. And I laughed

0:33:01.280 --> 0:33:02.959
<v Speaker 1>at when we've got a most read story by our

0:33:03.040 --> 0:33:05.880
<v Speaker 1>Scott excuse me, by our Steve Matthews and Serena you

0:33:06.240 --> 0:33:08.520
<v Speaker 1>where it's talking about Wall Street economist split on whether

0:33:08.560 --> 0:33:11.840
<v Speaker 1>FED cuts rates. That we're starting to think about a

0:33:11.920 --> 0:33:15.040
<v Speaker 1>FED cut next year as a possibility. That to me

0:33:15.120 --> 0:33:18.760
<v Speaker 1>is a real big shift in the narrative. Yeah, I agree, Carol,

0:33:18.840 --> 0:33:22.320
<v Speaker 1>And I think there's also, you know, an anticipation that

0:33:22.400 --> 0:33:25.720
<v Speaker 1>the FEDS policies do in fact work with that that

0:33:25.880 --> 0:33:29.240
<v Speaker 1>lag and we're gonna start to see employment. We're certainly

0:33:29.240 --> 0:33:32.640
<v Speaker 1>seeing the anecdotal evidence of employment employment softening that the

0:33:32.720 --> 0:33:36.719
<v Speaker 1>jolt statu hasitly softened on the margin. Um. And so

0:33:36.800 --> 0:33:39.560
<v Speaker 1>maybe the FED does move that aggregate demand curve to

0:33:39.640 --> 0:33:43.760
<v Speaker 1>such a degree after let's say, hitting that five terminal rate,

0:33:44.360 --> 0:33:46.920
<v Speaker 1>that we start to see the economic deceleration that they

0:33:46.960 --> 0:33:50.960
<v Speaker 1>anticipated and and I suspect over the next two quarters

0:33:51.520 --> 0:33:55.800
<v Speaker 1>we'll see a reasonably significant change in in the data

0:33:55.840 --> 0:33:58.960
<v Speaker 1>set and that that'll set up for an interesting two

0:33:59.000 --> 0:34:01.360
<v Speaker 1>thousand and twenty three. But we have earnings to to

0:34:01.440 --> 0:34:03.840
<v Speaker 1>really think about and we have the gridlock in Congress,

0:34:03.880 --> 0:34:06.520
<v Speaker 1>we don't have that fiscal stimulus that that we had

0:34:06.600 --> 0:34:09.080
<v Speaker 1>over the last couple of years to sort of serves

0:34:09.120 --> 0:34:12.200
<v Speaker 1>that tail wind for growth. Uh. And we have a

0:34:12.239 --> 0:34:15.680
<v Speaker 1>demographic picture that every year just looks a little worse.

0:34:16.920 --> 0:34:19.520
<v Speaker 1>And then we have debt levels that spits during COVID

0:34:19.600 --> 0:34:22.600
<v Speaker 1>and are not getting much better. And so we'll probably

0:34:22.640 --> 0:34:24.120
<v Speaker 1>have a debt looad in this country of three and

0:34:24.160 --> 0:34:26.439
<v Speaker 1>a half times public debtload, three and a half times

0:34:26.440 --> 0:34:28.080
<v Speaker 1>where we were the last time we had an inflation

0:34:28.080 --> 0:34:30.960
<v Speaker 1>crisis in the seventies. So it doesn't bode well for

0:34:31.000 --> 0:34:35.680
<v Speaker 1>sort of growth trending back or above trend above let's say,

0:34:35.680 --> 0:34:38.319
<v Speaker 1>a two percent trend. It seems to suggest that we're

0:34:38.320 --> 0:34:40.240
<v Speaker 1>going to be in a in a below two percent

0:34:40.320 --> 0:34:42.520
<v Speaker 1>world for for a long while here in the US.

0:34:42.640 --> 0:34:43.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, kind of glad you went there, Aer, And

0:34:43.960 --> 0:34:46.320
<v Speaker 1>I do think it's important that we watched the debt

0:34:46.440 --> 0:34:49.239
<v Speaker 1>loads overall, and certainly, you know, we talked a lot

0:34:49.239 --> 0:34:52.120
<v Speaker 1>about specifically consumer spending and how they're spending and where

0:34:52.120 --> 0:34:53.480
<v Speaker 1>they putting it. And I think that's going to be

0:34:53.480 --> 0:34:57.320
<v Speaker 1>a great indicator possibly to the downside of of what happens.

0:34:58.400 --> 0:34:59.719
<v Speaker 1>You did say, and I want to go back to

0:35:00.000 --> 0:35:01.719
<v Speaker 1>you expect over the next two quarters to see a

0:35:01.800 --> 0:35:04.759
<v Speaker 1>very different data set. Well, that data set I'm assuming

0:35:05.239 --> 0:35:09.040
<v Speaker 1>mean recession or not necessarily or just kind of an

0:35:09.040 --> 0:35:12.279
<v Speaker 1>extreme slowing down. Well, I think the market is trying

0:35:12.320 --> 0:35:14.200
<v Speaker 1>to sort that out. As we know, the equity markets

0:35:14.200 --> 0:35:18.239
<v Speaker 1>at discounting UH instrument and and certainly the volatility that

0:35:18.280 --> 0:35:22.440
<v Speaker 1>we've seen of late is sort of this uncertainty around

0:35:22.920 --> 0:35:25.719
<v Speaker 1>one will we will we actually enter a true recession.

0:35:25.760 --> 0:35:27.960
<v Speaker 1>Maybe we already did. The nb R hasn't come out

0:35:28.040 --> 0:35:31.600
<v Speaker 1>and indicated whether the prior to quarters were in fact

0:35:31.800 --> 0:35:34.520
<v Speaker 1>an official recession. We'll find that out next year, I guess.

0:35:35.239 --> 0:35:37.640
<v Speaker 1>But um, you know, I think that maybe the more

0:35:37.640 --> 0:35:40.720
<v Speaker 1>important question is whether or not the recession is shallow

0:35:41.040 --> 0:35:43.000
<v Speaker 1>or deep. If it's shallow, I think a great deal

0:35:43.040 --> 0:35:45.319
<v Speaker 1>of that is sort of was was priced in at

0:35:45.320 --> 0:35:47.319
<v Speaker 1>the end of September into the market. One reason why

0:35:47.320 --> 0:35:50.359
<v Speaker 1>I was seen the rally it's a deeper recession. Well,

0:35:50.719 --> 0:35:52.480
<v Speaker 1>this may be a sort of a false done for

0:35:52.560 --> 0:35:56.720
<v Speaker 1>equities having having rallied nicely off of off of those levels,

0:35:56.760 --> 0:36:00.440
<v Speaker 1>and so we're certainly being you know, extraordinary, extraordinarily mindful

0:36:00.480 --> 0:36:04.680
<v Speaker 1>of that. Certainly the stickiness factor in CPI as wages

0:36:04.840 --> 0:36:09.400
<v Speaker 1>and with higher wages, you tend to see margins contract.

0:36:09.520 --> 0:36:13.160
<v Speaker 1>And so we're we're certainly going to keep vigilance on

0:36:13.160 --> 0:36:15.479
<v Speaker 1>on that trend going into two thousand and twenty three.

0:36:15.719 --> 0:36:19.200
<v Speaker 1>What do margins do in a slower growth world when

0:36:19.239 --> 0:36:23.360
<v Speaker 1>wages haven't corrected and normalized and certainly an important factor.

0:36:23.560 --> 0:36:26.680
<v Speaker 1>And of course globally we have, you know, another pivot,

0:36:26.719 --> 0:36:29.719
<v Speaker 1>which is the zero COVID policy in China, and whether

0:36:29.800 --> 0:36:32.720
<v Speaker 1>or not President She's pivot is real or not, because

0:36:32.719 --> 0:36:36.120
<v Speaker 1>that has huge repercussions for global demand, demand for copper,

0:36:36.160 --> 0:36:39.400
<v Speaker 1>demand for oil, uh and demand for just generally goods

0:36:39.400 --> 0:36:42.640
<v Speaker 1>and services. Well, that that commodity space that we talked

0:36:42.640 --> 0:36:44.600
<v Speaker 1>about that earlier and I think it's going back to

0:36:44.719 --> 0:36:46.719
<v Speaker 1>China too, is so interesting. We have a ton of

0:36:46.719 --> 0:36:48.920
<v Speaker 1>stories on the Bloomberg this week that even as they

0:36:48.960 --> 0:36:52.680
<v Speaker 1>seem to be easing that COVID zero thinking, people are

0:36:52.719 --> 0:36:54.640
<v Speaker 1>afraid to go out in the public because they're just

0:36:54.680 --> 0:36:56.960
<v Speaker 1>a free They're going to get COVID And this is

0:36:57.000 --> 0:36:59.799
<v Speaker 1>over in China and that's gonna impact growth over in

0:36:59.800 --> 0:37:03.360
<v Speaker 1>the Chinese economy for a while. It'll impact growth, but

0:37:03.560 --> 0:37:07.240
<v Speaker 1>it's also as huge global repercussions. I mean, Chinese growth

0:37:07.280 --> 0:37:09.759
<v Speaker 1>is expected to be around three percent next year. It

0:37:09.880 --> 0:37:11.960
<v Speaker 1>was only a few years ago we were talking seven

0:37:12.040 --> 0:37:15.920
<v Speaker 1>eight type of growth. The idea that they could switch

0:37:16.000 --> 0:37:20.320
<v Speaker 1>off the zero COVID switch probably increases oil demand immediately

0:37:20.360 --> 0:37:22.160
<v Speaker 1>by about a million and a half barrels a day

0:37:22.160 --> 0:37:25.239
<v Speaker 1>by most estimates. So as huge global repercussions. And of

0:37:25.320 --> 0:37:29.680
<v Speaker 1>course the war in Ukraine is having massive negative repercussions

0:37:29.680 --> 0:37:33.040
<v Speaker 1>for the price of natural gas in Europe's largest economy,

0:37:33.040 --> 0:37:36.000
<v Speaker 1>in Germany. I mean that that's that's the largest economy

0:37:36.040 --> 0:37:39.200
<v Speaker 1>in Europe. They need cheap natural gas to be able

0:37:39.239 --> 0:37:41.640
<v Speaker 1>to do what they do, to be that industrial powerhouse

0:37:41.920 --> 0:37:43.719
<v Speaker 1>they don't have, and it looks like they won't have

0:37:43.760 --> 0:37:46.520
<v Speaker 1>it next year either, and maybe the year after that too. Alright, well,

0:37:46.840 --> 0:37:49.799
<v Speaker 1>I monopolized monopolize of time with you. Tim's mad at me,

0:37:49.840 --> 0:37:52.479
<v Speaker 1>but that's because we love talking with you. We're gonna

0:37:52.520 --> 0:37:55.560
<v Speaker 1>God to get you back on soon because it's okay.

0:37:56.080 --> 0:37:58.719
<v Speaker 1>You had good questions, Carol, Yeah, you know, Aaron, have

0:37:58.800 --> 0:38:01.680
<v Speaker 1>a great great thanksgive and these founders CEO Clear Harbor

0:38:01.680 --> 0:38:05.160
<v Speaker 1>Asset Management. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download

0:38:05.200 --> 0:38:08.480
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0:38:08.520 --> 0:38:10.840
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0:38:10.920 --> 0:38:15.000
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0:38:15.040 --> 0:38:16.399
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