1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also. 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing spect I'm saying it's 3 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 2: a cash to start. We'll see most gamblers when they 4 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 2: go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible. Big bank, 5 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 2: small banks. I like to make money. All right, this 6 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 2: is the ultimate kabai if you want to fall. And 7 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 2: we are underway. What's up everybody? 8 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:40,440 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network NFL Podcast presented by Fando. 9 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: I am your host Chris Raybond, and today we've got 10 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 1: our NFL player props picks for the Conference Championships, where 11 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 1: we discuss the player props that we are looking at. 12 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 2: Early in the week. Here here to help me do it. 13 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 1: As always one of the top rankers and projectors in 14 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 1: the game, Sean Kern or Sean, what's going on? 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 2: What's up? Yeah? 16 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 3: I had a good week, went four and oh on 17 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 3: this pod last week. I think you you went four 18 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 3: and oh depending on whatever you got for ETN. 19 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, yeah, yeah, hopefully we got to seventeen and 20 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 1: a half. 21 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that was one. 22 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 1: You know, usually doesn't come down to things like that, 23 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: but yeah, he was stuck on eighteen yards. I thankfully 24 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: they gave him that last catch because it looked like, 25 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: you know, it was very it was like a lateral 26 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: almost it was it was a. 27 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 2: Parallel to the line of scrimmage. 28 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, through the ball, but they gave him the catch 29 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 1: and he got a few yards on it. But yeah, 30 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 1: that was you know, that was a struggle. But you 31 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:36,040 Speaker 1: know that's only advice you could get air shop around. Yeah, 32 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:39,680 Speaker 1: hopefully get the best line, but yeah, that will happen sometimes. 33 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, for all these props today, we'll we'll talk about 34 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 3: like what we would bet it down to because obviously 35 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 3: these these lines will change, but we'll we'll try to 36 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 3: give good advice on when we would start to stop 37 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 3: edding it. 38 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 1: All right, yeah it's and it's jump right in, so 39 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 1: we'll go. We'll go with a prop for each game here. 40 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: There's only two games obviously, but be sure to follow 41 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: us any Action Network app and you can see all 42 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 1: the props we are betting on as they as we 43 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:09,399 Speaker 1: bet them. Obviously, these lines will move fast, so that's 44 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: that's a big advantage of obviously following us in the app. 45 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 1: You can get a notification the minute we post it. 46 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 1: Sean is in the app at the Underscore Odds Maker 47 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 1: and I am at Chris Raybon all right, which jump 48 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 1: into Niners Eagles is the first game, and the Eagles 49 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 1: are favored by two and a half. 50 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 2: The totals forty six. What do you like for this one? Yeah, 51 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 2: so my. 52 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 3: Favorite proper now is it's got to be Miles Sanders 53 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 3: under fifteen and a half rush attempts. You can get 54 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:38,639 Speaker 3: it minus one three right now. But I think there's 55 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 3: a ton of value there. Sanders is coming off a 56 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 3: you know, seventeen carry game. Certainly he benefited from the blowout, 57 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 3: but also you know Kenny Gagwell had twelve carries, Boston 58 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 3: Scott had six. So this was a game where Sanders 59 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 3: could have easily rushed for twenty plus times based on 60 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 3: the game script. But you know, the Eagles wanted to 61 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 3: limit his workload, you know, keep it fresh for this weekend. 62 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 3: But this this is a pretty big number for Sanders. 63 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 3: He's only cleared this in five of his last twelve games. However, 64 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:11,079 Speaker 3: you know, this week is a much tougher test against 65 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers. You know, they have an elite 66 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 3: run defense. They rank second and DBA against the run, 67 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 3: So it should be a closer game where the Eagles. 68 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 3: You know, they probably will have to throw the ball 69 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 3: a little bit more than usual. Plus, you know, the 70 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 3: Niners run to you is so good. You know they're 71 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 3: gonna probably face a lot more third downs, maybe not 72 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 3: have as many you know, long lasting drives where Sanders 73 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,640 Speaker 3: can rack up a couple carries of drive. So I 74 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 3: think this is the market to attack Sanders. So I'm 75 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 3: projecting a closer to thirteen and a half fourteen because 76 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 3: the Foreigners do a good job also of limiting the 77 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 3: overall number of plays the other team can even run. 78 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 3: They've allowed the fifth fewest plays per game allowed, and 79 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 3: a lot of that has to do with their slow pace. 80 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 3: Plus they have a very efficient run heavy offense. The Eagles, 81 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 3: of course have a run funnel defense. So this is 82 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 3: a game where I could see the Niners have some 83 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 3: pretty long clock killing drives that will just you know, 84 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 3: gut the overall value the overall play volume of the Eagles, 85 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 3: and the Niners have only wrote allowed four different running 86 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 3: backs to clear this number on the season. So with 87 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 3: the Eagles, you know they have game all Scott and 88 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 3: Hurts of course that eat into Sanders' workload. You know, 89 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 3: I just think it's me tough for him to get here. So, 90 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 3: like I said, I'm projecting this coaster to thirteen and 91 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 3: a half fourteen, I would bet this down to minus 92 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,840 Speaker 3: one fifty. I would probably still bet the under at 93 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 3: fourteen and a half as well. But in these types 94 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 3: of markets, you have to understand that every rush attempt 95 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 3: is massive. I give about eight to nine percent of 96 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 3: value per rush attempt in this range. So this is 97 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 3: when I would try to get well, it's still fifteen 98 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 3: and a half, but I would still take it at 99 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:47,479 Speaker 3: fourteen and a half, but I would like it just 100 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 3: a little bit less. 101 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, and when you say you know you'd rather attack 102 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 1: this market, I'm assuming you mean than the rushing yardage 103 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 1: exactly market, which is. 104 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 2: Already pretty sharp. 105 00:04:57,760 --> 00:04:59,719 Speaker 1: It's already down in about fifty five and a half 106 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 1: across the market, which is interesting because you know that's 107 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 1: there's essentially projecting him Dave rush for well under four 108 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 1: yards per attempt in this market. 109 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 2: I have him more like about fourteen for sixty. 110 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 1: So yeah, like I'm under the carries definitely, but yeah, 111 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: the yard is they're really kind of squeezing him with yeah, 112 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: and he's yeah, you. 113 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 2: Know, the niners. 114 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 3: When I was I took the Zeke Elliott under eleven 115 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 3: and a half yards for his longest rush attempt by 116 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 3: far my favorite prop of almost the year. I would 117 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 3: say just the Niners are a very good defense. I 118 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 3: think that goes out saying, but they do exploit, they 119 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:41,679 Speaker 3: limit explosive runs. But Sanders is one of those backs 120 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,280 Speaker 3: where you can easily see him rip off a thirty 121 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:46,919 Speaker 3: plus yard run no matter you know what kind of 122 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 3: defense he's facing. So I think that the angle here 123 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 3: is certainly just the overall volume. And like I said, 124 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 3: half reason I like this is the Niners' ability to 125 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 3: keep the other team off the field. So yeah, that 126 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 3: all you know, Sander rushing markets are probably a bit 127 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 3: in play this week, or you know, I favor the under, 128 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 3: but especially the attempt problem. That's why I think this 129 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 3: is my favorite market to attack in this game. 130 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 1: All right, for me, I'm going right back to the 131 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 1: well here with Quez Watkins under nineteen and a half 132 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:24,039 Speaker 1: receiving yards and I have his median around twelve. Here's 133 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:25,919 Speaker 1: the thing, you know, and you you actually pointed this 134 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 1: out and I dug deeper after you mentioned it on 135 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 1: one of these pods. But he's been a totally different 136 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: kind of player in terms of his usage with got 137 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:37,479 Speaker 1: her in and got her out of the lineup, so 138 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: we got her out. He's played that stretch weeks eleven 139 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 1: to fifteen, got it was out. He averaged nearly five 140 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: targets per game, just over three and a half receptions, 141 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 1: about twenty six receiving yards per game. 142 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 2: Did Quez Watkins. 143 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 1: But in the games he's played with Dallas Goddard, which 144 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 1: are thirteen games, his median receiving yard is zero, which 145 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:01,679 Speaker 1: he had more games where he's then he's had games 146 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 1: where he's had positive yardage. Uh And then he's averaging 147 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 1: just sixteen receiving yards per game, averaging under two targets 148 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: per game, just just over one reception. So with this market, 149 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 1: you're essentially kind of betting on him getting under, you know, 150 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: under multiple receptions, getting one or fewer receptions. But you 151 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 1: look at this the usage last week, and it was 152 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: even more alarming because Watkins his snap rate over just 153 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: the last four games seventy fifty. 154 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 2: Thirty one percent. Uh so his snap rates have been 155 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 2: going down. 156 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 1: Zach Pascal actually had more routes than did Quz Watkins 157 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: last week, and I just wonder if I know AJ 158 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 1: Brown was a little bit banged up. I just wonder 159 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: if Pascal is kind of that one for one replacement 160 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 1: for Brown, which doesn't you know, that doesn't really help 161 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: Watkins here at all. 162 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 2: So you know, there's a lot of different reasons why. 163 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: I just think, you know, Watkins his playtime, his playing 164 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 1: time could just be going down as they get into 165 00:07:58,880 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: the playoffs. 166 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 2: You know, Pascal is a better. 167 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: Run blocker, and they don't really need with Goddard on 168 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 1: the field, as we've seen, they don't really need that. 169 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 1: I mean, he's technically got the fourth or fifth option 170 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 1: now depending. You know, they don't throw their running backs 171 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 1: a lot, either. But yeah, just it's just there's just 172 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 1: not a high probability here that that Qus Watkins is 173 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: kind of coming anywhere close to his season averages, which 174 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: are kind of what the books are posting as posting 175 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: this line as you know, more of his kind of 176 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: a combination of what he's done with and without Goddard. 177 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 1: You know, there's been a clear trend here without Dallas 178 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 1: Goddard for Quez Watkins to come nowhere close to this line. 179 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 2: So yeah, I would bet this down. I mean, there's 180 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 2: real media and is zero. I haven't forgot around twelve. 181 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 1: I don't mind it, you know, I don't mind it 182 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 1: to about thirteen and a half here because essentially you're 183 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 1: just kind of betting on him, you know, not getting 184 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,319 Speaker 1: multiple catches here, so you know, there's a good chance 185 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 1: that he goose eggs again, which is also a good 186 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 1: chance if he catches one ball, he could go over 187 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: this anyway, So you know, I'm not super price sensitive 188 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:01,840 Speaker 1: to it here, But yeah, I would to about about 189 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: thirteen and a half. And I mean, if you you 190 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:06,560 Speaker 1: know his his average catch this year is about is 191 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: under eleven yards, which is interesting, so you could even 192 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 1: go lower, but I kind of again it's a little 193 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 1: higher with we got it out because of the adat, 194 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: So yeah, I think about thirteen yards. Uh, you know 195 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 1: it would be his his median catch in this in 196 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 1: this in this kind of environment. So yeah, anything over thirteen, 197 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 1: I think you're still fine here. But again, good chancey 198 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 1: goose eggs. So it's not one of where I'm going 199 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 1: to be super price sensitive. 200 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 3: Was this the same line he had last week? 201 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:35,120 Speaker 2: It closed it down? 202 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 1: I when it opened twenty one and a half, I 203 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: think I got out there, but then obviously talking about 204 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 1: it all week it did start. I don't know if 205 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: that was just user and you know other people. I'm 206 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 1: sure we're on it as well, but. 207 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, I did notice that. Yeah, I got it twenty 208 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 2: one and a half. 209 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: That's where I believe it opened, and by the end 210 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:52,839 Speaker 1: of the week it was around this number. So they're 211 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: essentially opening it now at the number it closed that 212 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:57,440 Speaker 1: but I still think that's too hot because same as 213 00:09:57,480 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 1: last week. You know, his median is gonna, especially for 214 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 1: a guy Watkins because he has a higher aid out, 215 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 1: especially with Goddard in his median is going to be 216 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: a lot lower than his average. You know, he's not 217 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 1: like one of these slot guys they can count on 218 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: to get like an eighty percent catch rate. And you know, 219 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:15,319 Speaker 1: it kind of doesn't matter whether you're talking about average 220 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 1: media like this is there's a big difference between watkins 221 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:19,719 Speaker 1: average and his median, and that's the books are kind 222 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 1: of just banking on people, not. 223 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 2: Really you know, differentiating between the two. 224 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:27,319 Speaker 1: So yeah, Qus Watkins under nineteen and a half, We'll 225 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 1: bet this all the way down to thirteen and a half. 226 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 3: What about his Uh Yeah, so I love him for 227 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 3: showdown sites because he's a boom bust player. Obviously he 228 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 3: busts more than the booms. But what do you think 229 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:40,559 Speaker 3: about his receptions prop? Right now it's one and a half, 230 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 3: you get the under like plus one fifteen. You were 231 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 3: saying he probably needs a couple of catches Clevis anyway, 232 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 3: Like is that a rock? Would you just double down 233 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 3: on that or would you prefer I was looking at that. 234 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 1: I was looking at that as well, so yeah, I'm 235 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 1: I'm I don't mind it either. 236 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 3: Uh. 237 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: The only thing is, you know, let's say they do 238 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: like h it's the hard thing to like these wide 239 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 1: receiver screens and things like that. 240 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:04,679 Speaker 2: So I don't want him to get a cheap one. 241 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: I still feel like it's more likely that either way 242 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 1: he goes under his yards. But I was looking at that, 243 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 1: but I think there's a little there's a little more 244 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 1: chance for him to get like a cheap over because 245 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: you know, he did have in like week eighteen, for example, 246 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,199 Speaker 1: we had like two catches for fourteen yards. 247 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:20,719 Speaker 2: You know what I mean. 248 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: You know, it's like sometimes you just it's like a 249 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: guy's quiet and so they just throw him like a 250 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 1: cheap wide receiver screen. So that is always something to 251 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: look out for ye but overall I think the unders 252 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 1: for him either way, just because based on what we've 253 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: seen this whole season with got Her and based on 254 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:38,079 Speaker 1: what we've seen last week with Pascal overtaking him. I 255 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: don't know if that's just you know, something with how 256 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 1: to do it Brown or that we're going to see 257 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 1: that going forward. But either way, I show value on both, 258 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: but usually tend to go to the yardage props in 259 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,200 Speaker 1: these kind of markets when there is value on both. 260 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 2: But yeah, no, that's a good call, and I don't, yeah, 261 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 2: and I don't. 262 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: I do show value, So if people want to go 263 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: that route, or if this the yardage number has dropped more, 264 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: I don't mind it at all. All right, let's jump 265 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: to the Chiefs and the Bengals, and of course, you 266 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 1: know Patrick Mahomes sustain that ankle injury, so we're actually 267 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 1: seeing the Bengals favorite on the road here by about 268 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 1: a point and a half the total forty six and 269 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 1: a half. 270 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 2: What do you like for this one? 271 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:21,680 Speaker 3: I like Joe Mixon under three and a half receptions 272 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:24,680 Speaker 3: at minus one ten right now, he's been held under 273 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 3: this two straight games. Now, you know the Bengals have 274 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:30,959 Speaker 3: been using Somaje Perian a lot more in the passing game. 275 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:31,840 Speaker 2: So the past two. 276 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 3: Games, p Ryan is averaging a forty nine percent routes 277 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 3: run rate mix just thirty one percent. Have to wonder, 278 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 3: you know, if the offensive line issues is the reason 279 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 3: for this. You know, they will probably continue to use 280 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 3: p Ryan heavily because he's the better passboker. He has 281 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 3: a seventy two PFF grade as a pass blocker. He 282 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:52,439 Speaker 3: has a lot of sack on the season. Well, you 283 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 3: know Joe Mixon, he has a thirty PFF pass blocker 284 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 3: and he's been credited with allowing three sacks on the season. 285 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 3: So have to figure this trend sticks this week. You know, 286 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 3: Plus p Ruin has been getting all the two minute 287 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 3: offense snaps. That's when running backs can really rack up receptions. 288 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 3: That's when he was able to clear the prob the 289 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 3: over I had last week, he got three or four 290 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 3: catches in a row down the first half, So that 291 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 3: that's huge that p Run's getting the two minute offense. 292 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 3: So I'm projecting mixing closer to three receptions here and 293 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 3: just in these markets a half reception it's just massive. 294 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 3: So I have him around a sixty two percent chance 295 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 3: of staying under, so I probably bet this down to 296 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 3: minus one thirty five or so. 297 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's it's been interesting to watch because 298 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: I you know, and I actually shout out to Mix 299 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 1: him for saving some of my tournament lineups fast because 300 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:49,559 Speaker 1: he was my contrarian captain. He actually got it done 301 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:51,679 Speaker 1: in a game where you know, it was kind of 302 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 1: wonky with any of the Bills guys. But yeah, no, 303 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 1: we've been talking about this for weeks now that p 304 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 1: Ryan is continuing to mix in it no right, but 305 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: he's he's been continuing no, I don't even want to 306 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 1: say mix and he's been continuing to be their go to. 307 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 2: Passing down back. 308 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 1: And you thought maybe the deeper you got into the postseason, 309 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,320 Speaker 1: the more you would see, uh that kind of revert 310 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 1: to the mean. But what's happening is there's still they're 311 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 1: becoming a you know, they're still using mixing. They're still 312 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 1: able to get him as twenty touches without necessarily playing 313 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 1: him on these passing guys where they. 314 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 2: Obviously don't like to play him because, like. 315 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 1: You said, just not as good of a pass block 316 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 1: or even though probably a better respect you'd probably rather 317 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 1: have the ball in his hands than p Ryan or 318 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 1: you know, push come to shove, But I think the 319 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 1: blocking really tilts it toward p Ran because p Run's 320 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 1: been a lot better I think, this year with the 321 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: ball in his hands than he's been in years past. 322 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 1: So uh, yeah, you know, I expect that to continue 323 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: as well. And uh, that's been kind of you know, 324 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 1: there's been an angle on Mixing pretty much every week, 325 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 1: so uh, we'll see, uh, you know what, Uh, We'll 326 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: see what else we can find because I feel like it, 327 00:14:57,240 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: you know, even his his rushing market might be interesting 328 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 1: this week because p. 329 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 2: Ryan also mixed in. 330 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know it was it was like, what was it, 331 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 1: twenty to seven in favor of Mixing, So you know, 332 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 1: that's that's that's a little lower than we would have 333 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: expected too. 334 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 3: So yeah, some of that was due to just mix 335 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 3: In being so good, I know, yeah, like back to 336 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 3: back fifty yard carriers. He had to get out of 337 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 3: the game and then p Ryan just busted off the 338 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 3: eleven hoard run, So yeah, it seemed like Mixing had 339 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 3: to keep getting pulling himself out of the game because 340 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 3: he was being so efficient. But yeah, I noticed that too, 341 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 3: and just both running backs played well last week. They're 342 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 3: they're favored by two and a half now, so it could. 343 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 2: Be that's so one and a half. So it's been 344 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 2: kind of moving around. 345 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, so but yeah, yeah, no, And and that's something though, 346 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 1: you know, that could be a little bit of an 347 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 1: overreaction to to the Mahomes news or you know, if 348 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: he's you know, let's he's super game, he could be 349 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 1: an underreaction. So I do think that is something you know, 350 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: for everyone listening again, just check the app, check check 351 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 1: what we're doing here, because there could be value on 352 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 1: just the running volume as well, depending on where. 353 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 2: This line ends up at all. Right, Yeah, I'm going 354 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 2: with somewhere. 355 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 1: And by the way, yeah, I have mixing it around 356 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 1: right around three catches as well, right so yeah, and 357 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 1: usually I haven't, and I am. 358 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 2: Factoring in the fact that he's per round. Yeah it's 359 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 2: gonna say season. 360 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, I'm facting as well, like what he 361 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 3: is out there, he has being seeing targets. That's why 362 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 3: I kind of I didn't want to attack his receiving 363 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 3: yard market. I'm showing, you know, seven to eight yards 364 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 3: of value there. But just when it comes to this market, 365 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 3: it's it just has more to do with playing time. 366 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 3: He's just not seeing as many routes, so it's gonna 367 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:40,240 Speaker 3: be harder for him to get there with this. But yeah, 368 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 3: I have noticed that last week it was down to 369 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 3: just a fourteen percent per route run. But overall he's 370 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 3: been seeing a ton of volume when he's out there. 371 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 3: But just again, the limited playing time just makes me 372 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:54,119 Speaker 3: show a ton of value this under. 373 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, I'm going with a similar kind of prop, 374 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 1: a little more juiced up, but I think it's a 375 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 1: great value. Isaiah Pacheco under one and a half catches 376 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 1: at minus one sixty five. This is a guy that 377 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:10,880 Speaker 1: I'm projected for one catch. You know we did week out, 378 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 1: I'm projecting him for one catch. So in terms of 379 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:16,639 Speaker 1: the juice, like, i'd probably stop it around minus two hundred. 380 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 1: I know people don't want to bet even that high sometimes, 381 00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:22,640 Speaker 1: but there's probably you know, he's he's done. He's caught 382 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,400 Speaker 1: more than one passage is four of his last five 383 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,479 Speaker 1: and that's you know, with him being the starter and 384 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 1: on the season. 385 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:28,680 Speaker 2: Uh, he's he's gotten. 386 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: He's got multiple catches in just four of his what 387 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: was it eighteen No, Yeah, eighteen games now, so you know, 388 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 1: the likely the likelihood of him getting two catches is 389 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 1: very low. And the issue in the playoffs, and we 390 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:48,200 Speaker 1: saw this last week and is that you have Jared McKinnon. 391 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:50,359 Speaker 1: His role increases in the players. Now, I don't it 392 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,639 Speaker 1: didn't show last week necessarily in the receiving department, but 393 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 1: Jordan McKinnon's getting more early down snaps. Those are coming 394 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 1: out of Pacheco and because of that, there's a ceiling 395 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: on how many routes Pacheco can run. It just depends 396 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:05,880 Speaker 1: on how many times they call a pass play on 397 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:10,119 Speaker 1: early downs. Now, with mahomes a little GIMPI that may 398 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 1: that likelihood may decrease. You know, they may be a 399 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 1: little more run heavy. So you know, Pachecko's he played 400 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 1: only thirty five percent of the snaps last week and 401 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 1: you know usually it's around you know, twenty five to 402 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,920 Speaker 1: thirty three percent of the routes and that's pretty much 403 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 1: his ceiling. And he still hasn't been clearing h you know, 404 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 1: multiple receptions in this in this market. So uh, you 405 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:33,399 Speaker 1: know there's a chance Pachecko could you know, run around 406 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,119 Speaker 1: on under twenty five percent of the dropbacks this week 407 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,760 Speaker 1: but he's just a guy that you're not He's in 408 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:40,239 Speaker 1: there to run the ball, He's not really in there 409 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: to catch the ball. And the more negative game script 410 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,239 Speaker 1: you see, uh, the more passing downs, the more you're 411 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 1: gonna see Jack McKinnon in that two minute, in that 412 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 1: hurry up and whatnot. So I think there's a lot 413 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:52,640 Speaker 1: of different ways Pachecko coud goes under. And by the way, 414 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: the Bengals are number two in DVOA on passes to 415 00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:58,439 Speaker 1: running backs, So I don't think it's gonna be in 416 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 1: the game play necessarily, even with Mahomes banged up for 417 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 1: you know, for the back to do much. 418 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 2: If anything. 419 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 1: I think Pacheco may end up staying in the pass block, 420 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 1: making sure Mahomes doesn't get blasted if he does play, 421 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: because you. 422 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:13,640 Speaker 2: Can't you can't leave Kelsey in the past block. 423 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 1: Maybe you go, you know, you go, you go a 424 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 1: little heavier, you can leave Noah Gray in or Blake Bell. 425 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 1: But more more than likely it's just gonna be the back, uh, 426 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 1: you know, blocking for Patrick Mahomes here. So yeah, I mean, 427 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: maybe there might even be value on McKinnon's unders as well, 428 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,199 Speaker 1: but I just know he's the guy that's gonna the more. 429 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 1: If you know Cincinnati keeps playing well it's negative gamescrip, 430 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 1: then you're gonna see McKinnon run a ton of routes. 431 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:38,439 Speaker 1: But pa Checko either way, I would essentially bet this 432 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: to pretty much any juice, but we'll say two hundred 433 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,360 Speaker 1: users here, because I know people don't like to bet 434 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:46,360 Speaker 1: juice up ones. But this is like, this is kind 435 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 1: of like that Ray Ray Ray McCloud on a few. 436 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 1: It's like if this doesn't hit, it's just it's just 437 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,399 Speaker 1: a bad beat, Like, yeah, not catch two balls in 438 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 1: his game. 439 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, I haven't projected for one reception as well. Again, 440 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,719 Speaker 3: people need to understand how how valuable that half yard is. 441 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:05,199 Speaker 3: So if we're projecting one point zero receptions like we are, 442 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 3: the chances of him staying under is right around you know, 443 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 3: seventy two percent, read in that range. So a fair 444 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 3: line for this would be minus two seventy. That's why 445 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 3: you're kind of saying you'll bet this dn M juice. Yeah, 446 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,360 Speaker 3: you mean it, because like this market should be you know, 447 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:23,640 Speaker 3: down to like minus two fifty minus two seventy plus. 448 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 3: I'm not projecting this at all. But Clyde Edwards Hilaire. Yes, 449 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 3: could in this week, So that's just added value, right, 450 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 3: even if he doesn't play, we're showing minus two seventy. Yeah, 451 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 3: but if Edwards Hilaire suits up, I mean we're gonna 452 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 3: be projecting him lower like point six point seven. I 453 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 3: don't know, but it's gonna be lower. 454 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 2: So that's even more. 455 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 3: It could we could be showing a fair price of 456 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 3: like minus three hundred or more. So yeah, I'm not 457 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 3: scared of the juice here. So yeah, this is one 458 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 3: of those you just bet no matter what. 459 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,199 Speaker 1: He is, what I would suggest, you know, whenever you 460 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 1: hear this podcast, they just bet it immediately because no, 461 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 1: it's gonna happen. Is if it gets to a point 462 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,919 Speaker 1: where it should be, like the true value should be, 463 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 1: you know, minus two fifty or whatever whatever the books deem, 464 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:07,919 Speaker 1: they're just gonna take it. 465 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 2: Off the board. You know. 466 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, we don't see we don't see over under half 467 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:13,920 Speaker 1: our reception. We see the receiving yards and you could, 468 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,280 Speaker 1: but the receiving yard market is a lot fairer already. 469 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 1: It's it's it's six and a half pretty much. And 470 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 1: you know, his average catch has been ten yards. So 471 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 1: that's why I show a lot more value on betting 472 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,399 Speaker 1: under the volume because he could get like one catch 473 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,680 Speaker 1: for ten yards or something like that. You win the 474 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 1: other bet, you don't win this one. So you know 475 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 1: that that's what's gonna happen, is they're gonna take the 476 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 1: receptions off the board, and then people are gonna say, 477 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: you know, well, should I just bet the yardage? No, 478 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: you should not bet the yard is because you know 479 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 1: he's a lot his yards for catches is actually above 480 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 1: the league average, So you know that that that's not 481 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 1: really like the most likely outcome is still one catch, 482 00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 1: So you don't want to bet under six and a 483 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 1: half when he's been averaging ten and still you know, 484 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:57,119 Speaker 1: the more likely for a guy averaging ten not many receptions, 485 00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 1: we don't have huge sample size. The're gonna do a 486 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: lot of regression, but still expect about into eight yards 487 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,399 Speaker 1: per catch for him, you know, on that one catch. 488 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think like, also, if you're if you're 489 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,199 Speaker 3: doing like a same game parlay thing, you want to 490 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 3: beef it up with something like this. Yeah, again it 491 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,160 Speaker 3: should be it should be like minus two fifty minus 492 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 3: three hundred. Uh, just beef up a parlay by using 493 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,159 Speaker 3: this throwing throwing that in there, because again this probably 494 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,439 Speaker 3: drives with every single game script anyway. Yeah, so this 495 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,160 Speaker 3: correlates with pretty much everything as well. So another good 496 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 3: like sneaky same game parlay thing. 497 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,679 Speaker 1: All right, So that is uh, that's gonna do it 498 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 1: for our Action Network NFL podcast presented by FANDO for 499 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 1: the Conference Championships to recap Shawn's going with Miles Sanders 500 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,879 Speaker 1: under fifteen and a half rush attempts. We bet that 501 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: to about minus one fifty uh, and then we would 502 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 1: also consider the under fourteen and a. 503 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:47,119 Speaker 2: Half yeah as well. 504 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: Uh, and then mixing under three and a half receptions 505 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 1: of why would you bet that too? 506 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 3: Probably like minus one thirty five, okay, minus one thirty five, 507 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 3: only only at three and a half it's not gonna move. 508 00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,359 Speaker 3: But this is when I would just bet down to 509 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:00,440 Speaker 3: minus one. 510 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,720 Speaker 1: And then for the for me, I'm going quiz Watkins 511 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 1: under nineteen and a half receiving yards, I would go 512 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 1: down to thirteen and a half and check out under 513 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 1: one and a half receptions. I would go to minus 514 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 1: two hundred of though I would go Danny juice, But 515 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: I would say for people, you know, if you want 516 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,119 Speaker 1: a number don't like after minus two hundred, I'm sure 517 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,880 Speaker 1: it's not gonna make much of a difference, uh anyway, 518 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 1: So that's our props early in the week for the 519 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 1: conference championships. Again, be sure to follow us in the 520 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,439 Speaker 1: Action Network at where you can track all of your 521 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 1: bets and picks, but you can also follow ours and 522 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:37,679 Speaker 1: get notifications when we bet them so that you're getting 523 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: the best closing line value. For more great fancy content 524 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:44,239 Speaker 1: from Sean and I, be sure to check out our 525 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:48,120 Speaker 1: full DFS preview episodes for both the AFC and NFC 526 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:52,439 Speaker 1: Championship games over on the Fantasy Flex podcast channel, and 527 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 1: be sure to check out my weekly betting preview episode 528 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 1: every Thursday with Stucky right here on the Action Network 529 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:02,199 Speaker 1: podcast channel. Network dot com for all of our NFL 530 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:06,120 Speaker 1: betting and fantasy content, as well as Fantasylabs dot com 531 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 1: for our DFS tools and models. 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