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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough? They're all for running a gay.

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Speaker 3: So smooth, so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious.

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Speaker 4: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent

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Speaker 4: effort four thousand percent.

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Speaker 3: Of the time.

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Speaker 5: How shot with that?

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Speaker 3: Shop with mind, buddy, And that's why you see your

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Speaker 3: beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 5: Look at his movements the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 5: The wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left to the wide eyed drill pibus how old.

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Speaker 2: Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Oh and welcome to a Wondergul, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 4: from the Action Network.

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Speaker 2: My name is Michael E.

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Speaker 4: Buff and joining me in just a moment all mine

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Speaker 4: Action colleagues pre J Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo, and together

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Speaker 4: the three of us will do our best to handicap

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Speaker 4: our way through the upcoming week in European soccer, which

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Speaker 4: has of course been highly altered by the ongoing COVID

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Speaker 4: nineteen uptick. But we figured this would be a good

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Speaker 4: time to kind of pause and reset for Champions League,

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Speaker 4: since last week we saw the two draws from UEFA.

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Speaker 2: For the round of sixteen, one of which counted and

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Speaker 2: the other one did not.

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Speaker 4: So let's just quickly take a look at where we're

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Speaker 4: standing in the Champions League right now. Manchester City they

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Speaker 4: are the plus two to fifty favorites. Bayern Munich right

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Speaker 4: behind them there plus three fifty Liverpool plus five fifty

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Speaker 4: Chelsea seven.

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Speaker 2: To one, PSG ten to one, i Ax triple digits

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Speaker 2: to start the tournament.

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Speaker 4: They're down to twelve to one. Real Madrid eighteen to one.

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Speaker 4: Manchester United they're eighteen to one. Juventus the Old Lady.

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Speaker 4: They're twenty five to one. At let It Goo Madrid

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Speaker 4: thirty five to one, which is basically where they were

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Speaker 4: to start the tournament. Inter Milan fifty to one via

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Speaker 4: Real the Yellow Submarine. They're sitting at one hundred to one.

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Speaker 4: Benfica won fifty to one. Lil they're two hundred to one.

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Speaker 4: Sporting Lisbon and Red Bull Salzburg are the two biggest

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Speaker 4: long shots of the sixteen teams remaining, both at two

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Speaker 4: fifty to one BJ Let's start with you of those

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Speaker 4: teams are these sixteen teams remaining? Is there a price

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Speaker 4: that jumps out to you right now?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Athletico is just jumping right off the page and

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Speaker 1: me at thirty five to one. I don't really think

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Speaker 1: they should be that big of a long shot, given

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Speaker 1: how kind of favorable their first you know, round matchup

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Speaker 1: is against Manchester United. Look, as we stand today, Athletico

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Speaker 1: should be favored over Manchester United. Now obviously, as we

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Speaker 1: get to February, Ralph Ragni's note his influence will probably

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Speaker 1: take over United squad. Maybe they'll be a better defensive

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Speaker 1: outfut they'll start to get healthy and so that, you know,

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Speaker 1: I might be a little more tricky for Athletico, but

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Speaker 1: Athletico is putting up better numbers this season than they

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Speaker 1: did in their title campaign last year. They were plus

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Speaker 1: zero point five to eight non penalty expected gol differential

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Speaker 1: per match, which is the best mark in Spain, and

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Speaker 1: Spain is the second most difficult league in all of

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Speaker 1: Europe based on UEFA coefficient. So I have them fifth

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Speaker 1: in my power ratings, and they are an unbelievably good

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Speaker 1: defensive outfit this year, only on point seventy five non

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Speaker 1: penalty expected goals for match. So given their pretty decent

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Speaker 1: first round matchup against Manchester United, this price is just

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Speaker 1: way too high. Comparative to where you know, some of

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Speaker 1: the other teams, they should probably be up there around

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Speaker 1: twenty maybe even fifteen to one. So I love Athletico

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Speaker 1: the price of thirty five to one. You know, they

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Speaker 1: obviously struggled in the group play, but you know they

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Speaker 1: got it done on the final day against Porto and

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Speaker 1: it sets them up with a pretty good matchm in

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Speaker 1: round one.

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Speaker 3: We'll see if they can move on throughout the tournament.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Letty jumped off the page a little bit to

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Speaker 2: me too. I think you know that.

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Speaker 4: I look at them as pretty much peers compared to

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Speaker 4: Manchester United. So why is United half they're odds? I'm

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Speaker 4: not totally sure. So I think thirty five to one

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Speaker 4: is a good number on a team that is a

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Speaker 4: absolute chore to deal with in tournament and knockout football.

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Speaker 4: Great manager, We know what they can do depending on

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Speaker 4: the game state or you know, the situation. If they're

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Speaker 4: down a goal, they know how to come back in

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Speaker 4: the second like stuff like that. Diego Simeoni is kind

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Speaker 4: of a legend at that kind of stuff. I like

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Speaker 4: Inter Milanto fifty to one, really tough matchup in the

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Speaker 4: round of sixteen, But I think you might want to

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Speaker 4: bet them now if you think they're interesting, because who

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Speaker 4: knows what's going to happen with Liverpool coming out of

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Speaker 4: the African Cup of Nations, with Salat and Sadie Omane

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Speaker 4: going down there, there's just a lot of soccer for

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Speaker 4: those guys.

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Speaker 2: To be playing.

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Speaker 4: So I don't think it's a bad number on a

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Speaker 4: team that's been the best team in Syria A this year.

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Speaker 4: It's just a really tough hurdle to get over in

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Speaker 4: terms of their matchup with Liverpool in the round of sixteen, Anthony,

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Speaker 4: do you see anything here what team jumps off the

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Speaker 4: page to you?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I didn't see a ton on the board that

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Speaker 5: I like. In terms of playing futures. I think when

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Speaker 5: you look at the board, you could make a case

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Speaker 5: for Atletti or you could make a case for Enter,

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Speaker 5: but I don't think either of them are going to

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Speaker 5: get out of their first round. BJ and I have

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Speaker 5: a bit of a disagreement there on the United ad

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Speaker 5: Letti tie, but we will get more into that and

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Speaker 5: go kind of deeper into each matchup in February when

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Speaker 5: the matches here actually upon us. But that being said,

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Speaker 5: there is some first round action that I know we're

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Speaker 5: going to get into and that's where I'm looking to

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Speaker 5: really kind of hit some underdogs here, and I think

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Speaker 5: there's some overpriced favorites, specifically in Italy, but overall in

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Speaker 5: terms of the board, the IAX number is low enough

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Speaker 5: that I don't really see any value in it. But

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Speaker 5: if you want to hump in and have some fun

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Speaker 5: with us for the next few months, maybe hop on

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Speaker 5: i ACS, because I think they do cruise into the

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Speaker 5: quarters and at that point, you know, as long as

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Speaker 5: they avoid City or Buyern, I think they've got a

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Speaker 5: really good chance to give a game to whoever they

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Speaker 5: get in the quarters and probably be a favorite in

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Speaker 5: about half of their ties. So there's a decent shot

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Speaker 5: that they're looking at another run here.

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Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, let's jump into the matches.

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Speaker 4: We'll do a quick, like thirty thousand foot overview just

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Speaker 4: kind of our initial reaction. Maybe a team or two

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Speaker 4: we like right away before, Like Anthony said, we do

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Speaker 4: dive deep into these matches in February. Right now, it's

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Speaker 4: really tough to kind of handicap anything even if a

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Speaker 4: game is two days away because of the ongoing COVID

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Speaker 4: nineteen stuff. But we'll set the stage at the very least.

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Speaker 4: So here are the eight matchups. The headliner is certainly

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Speaker 4: Real Madrid plus one ten taking on PSG who are

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Speaker 4: minus won thirty five to advance. Right now inter Milan

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Speaker 4: there plus two seventy five to advance, Liverpool minus three seventy,

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Speaker 4: Atletico Madrid plus one ten, Man United minus one thirty

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Speaker 4: five via Real plus one sixty. They're taking on Juventus

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Speaker 4: who are minus two hundred, Chelsea minus five to twenty

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Speaker 4: five prohibitive favorites against lil who are plus three seventy

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Speaker 4: Benfica three to one on the money line to advance,

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Speaker 4: taking on Ix who a minus four hundred, and then

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Speaker 4: the two big lung shots, Red Bull Salzburg eight to

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Speaker 4: one against Byron who are six minus sixteen hundred, and

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Speaker 4: those are the same odds for Sporting taking on Manchester City.

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Speaker 4: It's no question that City and Byron got the best

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Speaker 4: draw I think they could have asked for, they could

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Speaker 4: have hoped for. Byron versus r B Salsburg could feature

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Speaker 4: something like I don't know, twelve thirteen goals and across

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Speaker 4: the two legs if things get out of hand, which

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Speaker 4: they might, I do think.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with you, Anthony, you hinted at it.

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Speaker 4: Via Real and Juventus is the matchup that drew my

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Speaker 4: attention when the draw was made because I have a

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Speaker 4: future on Viareal from last round is basically the same

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Speaker 4: price as it is now one hundred and one. I

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Speaker 4: think they are also interesting too, right, Like, this is

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Speaker 4: a team that, like the Spanish clubs, are just tough

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Speaker 4: to deal with in these tournaments, getting plus one sixty

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Speaker 4: against a Juventus team that has been up and down

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Speaker 4: and up and down.

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Speaker 2: They've been pretty good in the Champions League. I think

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Speaker 2: we can all say that, but in terms of their

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Speaker 2: big picture of the season, not all that impressive. So

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Speaker 2: touch on via Real and why you like them to

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Speaker 2: pull one over on Juventus.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I actually ran my numbers today for

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Speaker 5: the first time and I make Viial minus one oh one,

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Speaker 5: so I actually have them as a favorite.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 5: I'm probably a little low on Juve, but I have

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Speaker 5: significantly downgraded Italy based on their Champions League and Europa

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Speaker 5: League performances, which have not been particularly good at all,

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Speaker 5: especially when you look at Alto getting bounced by Virial

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Speaker 5: at home was a really bad loss for the league. Juventus, Yes,

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Speaker 5: they dominated Malmo twice, but going away to Chelsea and

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Speaker 5: getting absolutely smushed a pretty fortunate away win in a

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Speaker 5: very even match at Zenit. I'm not convinced still by

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Speaker 5: this Juventus team. I don't know that they have the

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Speaker 5: attacking firepower to compete not only for this title against

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Speaker 5: the big boys, but really to overwhelm a team that

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Speaker 5: they should be better than in Via Real, even though

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Speaker 5: I don't really think they are. Away goals is gone

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Speaker 5: this year, and I think that is going to be

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Speaker 5: a really interesting game theory situation for some of these teams.

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Speaker 5: But I also think if anything, and I know we

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Speaker 5: see vi Real as the defensive, tough to break down team,

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Speaker 5: but if anything, this could actually hurt Uventus, and it

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Speaker 5: could hurt the favorites who get to go on the

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Speaker 5: road in the first leg, and you know, won away

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Speaker 5: goal pretty much sets you up for success if you're

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Speaker 5: on the road and you get that advantage. I think

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Speaker 5: personally will help the underdogs in the sense that you

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Speaker 5: have a chance to play even with a team and

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Speaker 5: then get it to penalties, where it's basically a coin flip.

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Speaker 5: So I think that helps dogs and teams who are

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Speaker 5: considered worse and really, it's just you know, Italy's consistently

200
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Speaker 5: been bad in Europe, and I think I think that's

201
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Speaker 5: reflective when you look at how the money has flowed

202
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Speaker 5: across the continents, especially since COVID. It makes a lot

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Speaker 5: of sense when you see the talent and the money

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Speaker 5: that has left Italy. Juventus has lost a lot of talent.

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Speaker 5: At Atlanta, AC Milan have really all struggled in the continent,

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Speaker 5: and it goes down to you know, the other leagues

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Speaker 5: as well. So I like v Real and we'll get

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Speaker 5: more into the numbers in the matchups in February, but

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Speaker 5: I took them plus one sixty just before we start

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Speaker 5: a recording. I think it's a crazy number, and I

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Speaker 5: know BJ.

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Speaker 2: Grees, Yeah, I totally agree. I mean I have if

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Speaker 2: you vented minus one twelve.

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Speaker 1: So that's a really interesting matchup just stylistically, because un

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Speaker 1: Iamory has been really good.

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Speaker 3: In tournaments, obviously in the Europa League for a long time,

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Speaker 3: and getting out of the group stage, beating at Atlanta,

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Speaker 3: who's a significantly better team than you menu this season.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's a crazy number at plus one sixty.

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Speaker 1: But what I'm most interested is for the first round

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Speaker 1: is definitely Real Madrid versus PSG, because I don't understand

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Speaker 1: all why PSG has favored to go to the quarters

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Speaker 1: over Real Madrid. So, first off, both these teams ravaging

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Speaker 1: around one point seventy five spectacles per match. Now, Real

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Speaker 1: Madrid plays in a much more difficult league in Spain

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Speaker 1: rather than France, who are you know, significant gap in

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Speaker 1: the UAE for coefficients. Secondly, I know Real Madrid has

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Speaker 1: had a lot of defensive issues this season, but are

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Speaker 1: we really going to sit here and say that they're

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Speaker 1: going to be twelve and non penalty expectable is allowed

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Speaker 1: throughout the entire season.

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Speaker 3: I don't think so.

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Speaker 1: I think they'll be able to figure out they have

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Speaker 1: enough talent to be able to shore up that defense.

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Speaker 1: PSG was obviously very underwhelming in the group stage, only

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Speaker 1: a plus one point one expected gold of the Frenchill,

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Speaker 1: while Real Madrid plus five point nine expected gold of

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Speaker 1: French Will. Now, I understand Real Madrid played in a

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Speaker 1: pretty easier group than PSG, but we've seen it time

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Speaker 1: and time again with PSG in Champions League play against

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Speaker 1: really good offensive teams that can control possession, they tend

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Speaker 1: to struggle. They're not good when they don't have the ball.

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Speaker 1: Real Madrid is a team that can hold the ball,

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Speaker 1: can hold possession and has a lot of talent going

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Speaker 1: forward an attack against a very average midfield and defense.

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Speaker 1: So I really don't understand why Real Madrid is an

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Speaker 1: underdog here. Even if you look at five thirty eight,

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Speaker 1: they have Real Madrid at fifty five percent to advance

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Speaker 1: the quarters over PSG. So you know, as it stands

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Speaker 1: right now, I mean, obviously PSG wants we reach February.

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Speaker 1: They have a pretty big lead in the league gun,

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Speaker 1: but Real Madrid has a pretty big lead in La

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Speaker 1: Legua as well, so both these teams could be on

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Speaker 1: cruise control and.

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Speaker 3: Be able to manage their squads and put the best

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Speaker 3: teams forward when we reach February. So I love Real

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Speaker 3: Madrid to advance anything plus money.

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Speaker 5: I don't think there's any denying and if this match

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Speaker 5: we're played tomorrow, Real Madrid would be the side that

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Speaker 5: I'd probably back and the side that you know I

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Speaker 5: would want to have. But with that being said, we've

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Speaker 5: seen this PSG team in knockout competitions when they don't

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Speaker 5: have to be on the ball as much and they

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Speaker 5: can play in a counter attacking sense that they can

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Speaker 5: cause a lot of problems. And I have major question

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Speaker 5: marks about Real Madrid's defense's ability to cope with Messi

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Speaker 5: and Mbappe and a healthy Namar if he's healthy when

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Speaker 5: this match comes around, which he will be, if he

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Speaker 5: doesn't get hurt again in the interim, which also could happen.

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Speaker 5: And so I actually lean towards PSG at the number,

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Speaker 5: I would need a better price to play it, hoping

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Speaker 5: get like a you know, maybe PSG keeps struggling and

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Speaker 5: we get a better number here. But I really trust

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Speaker 5: poach Chino in knockout tournaments. He's had a ton of

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Speaker 5: success playing on a counter attacking style in these kind

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Speaker 5: of games, and I think Real Madrid is pretty exposed

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Speaker 5: to that, And so that's why I would lean towards

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Speaker 5: Real Madrid. Did they get a little lucky PSG when

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Speaker 5: they beat Bayern, Yes, but they also dominated BARSA last

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Speaker 5: year and I think we've seen what Embappe, Neymar and

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Speaker 5: now adding Messi can do when they don't have to

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Speaker 5: play with the ball and risk and encountered themselves.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, one thing to look out for is the January

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Speaker 1: transfer market, because there's rumors out there.

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Speaker 2: That Chelsea want Casamiro.

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Speaker 1: That would be detrimental to Real Madrid's Real Madrid defensively,

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Speaker 1: So if that happens, this kind of goes all out

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Speaker 1: the window. But if Real Madrid is able to bolster

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Speaker 1: them midfield a little bit and provide some help defensively

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Speaker 1: and improve there, I really don't see how they should

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Speaker 1: be underdogs.

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Speaker 3: Going up against a PSG team that's very average defensively.

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Speaker 2: You know, there's still a transfer window dot com.

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Speaker 4: We don't know how Europe and you know, even here

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Speaker 4: at the States is gonna be able to cope with

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Speaker 4: this new wave of COVID. So we are treading lightly,

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Speaker 4: but I think it's clear like we do have a

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Speaker 4: couple of ways We're leading via Real for sure. I

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Speaker 4: think the thing that's funny about Real Madrid and PSG

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Speaker 4: is these are two teams that we've been betting against

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Speaker 4: quite a bit on the show, and now of course

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Speaker 4: they meet up. So it really does kind of force

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Speaker 4: your hand a little bit to take a stand on

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Speaker 4: either one of these teams if you are going to

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Speaker 4: make a play.

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Speaker 5: Well, it's funny when the draw came out the first time,

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Speaker 5: I was praying for via Real to get one of

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Speaker 5: these overvalued favorites, and then they got Liverpool and I

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Speaker 5: was like, well, that's dead, Like they're drawing dead. And

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Speaker 5: we were writing our postmatch or post draw reactions and

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Speaker 5: we're like, yeah, via Real is dead. Tough draw, better

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Speaker 5: luck next year. Then they do the redraw and they

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Speaker 5: pull Juventus and I let out a cheer. So I

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Speaker 5: knew we were going to get a good price on them,

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Speaker 5: and I was hoping that PSG and I know BJ

316
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Speaker 5: was PSG. I AX not good for the futures, but

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Speaker 5: would have been a great IX spot. I was hoping

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Speaker 5: to look to fade Chelsea too in a better spot,

319
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Speaker 5: but Leal's tough. So it's really interesting how the redraw

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Speaker 5: kind of changes the perceptions of what we ended up

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Speaker 5: getting here and Byron's Alsburg could be a lot of fun.

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Speaker 5: I don't think Salsburg had much of a shot, but

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Speaker 5: if you go back to the group stage last year,

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Speaker 5: they won the expected goals battle in one of those games.

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Speaker 5: They were very competitive. It was like the first time

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Speaker 5: that I realized, okay, what's wrong with Byron defensively was

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Speaker 5: those Champions League games when they were getting ripped apart.

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Speaker 5: So if there's any weaknesses in that defense, Byron or

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Speaker 5: Salsburg could be the team to expose them and the

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Speaker 5: storyline there Kareem Meta emmy young German striker for Salzburg

331
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Speaker 5: maybe looking for a move to Germany, so it could

332
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Speaker 5: be really interesting tie as well, even if Byron probably rolls.

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Speaker 2: You did bring up BIAX a little bit.

334
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Speaker 4: All three of us have been investing in this team

335
00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,880
Speaker 4: and have invested in pre tournament. But bj you think

336
00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:41,520
Speaker 4: that Benfica can cause this team? You want to talk

337
00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,600
Speaker 4: about styles, making fights like this is a good defensive

338
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Speaker 4: team versus a heavy metal offensive force. So you know,

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Speaker 4: thirty seconds here, just kind of give us your quick

340
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Speaker 4: thoughts on i X Benfica Benfica. Like I said, three

341
00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:55,760
Speaker 4: to one on the money line to advance minus four hundred,

342
00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:56,880
Speaker 4: which probably is a little.

343
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Speaker 1: High, right, I'm not saying that you know IAX is

344
00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:01,360
Speaker 1: going to struggle again Benefica. I think the price is

345
00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:03,240
Speaker 1: just a little bit crazy up at three to one.

346
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Speaker 1: I mean, this Benefica team showed throughout the group stage

347
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Speaker 1: that they are a very well organized defense.

348
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Speaker 3: Obviously they didn't show it against Byron Munich, but that's

349
00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:12,320
Speaker 3: Byron Munich. I wouldn't put i X at that level

350
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Speaker 3: quite yet.

351
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Speaker 1: Even if we're just looking, you know, just purely looking

352
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Speaker 1: at expected gold differential, IX is at one point eighty

353
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Speaker 1: six in the area to V s per match. Benefica

354
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Speaker 1: is at one point three to one in Portugal's first division.

355
00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,160
Speaker 1: Portugal is a much more difficult league than the Netherlands,

356
00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,520
Speaker 1: So looking at that, I'm like, it gives me a

357
00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:31,840
Speaker 1: little bit pause, Like, Okay, this is still a really

358
00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,680
Speaker 1: good Benefica team with a very experienced back line and

359
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Speaker 1: automendy And for Tongan, they have some talent strikers like

360
00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:40,360
Speaker 1: Jarmichuck and stef Rovic.

361
00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:43,000
Speaker 2: So could they give i X the problems? Maybe?

362
00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:45,000
Speaker 3: Could i X just roll them like they did their

363
00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,960
Speaker 3: fellow Portuguese team Sporting Maybe, but at a price of

364
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,320
Speaker 3: you know, minus four hundred. You know, we all love

365
00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:53,200
Speaker 3: i X, and you know, we all have futures on them,

366
00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,520
Speaker 3: but this is a little crazy we're getting up for.

367
00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:57,440
Speaker 3: We're getting into kind of crazy territories.

368
00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,160
Speaker 1: So if there's one huge favorite that I I think

369
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 1: is most vulnerable, I hate to say it, but I

370
00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:03,200
Speaker 1: think it's i AX.

371
00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, I already bet i AX moneyline in the first

372
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:07,880
Speaker 5: leg they opened plus one ten. I took that. I

373
00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,160
Speaker 5: like that to minus one ten, so it's even money

374
00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,240
Speaker 5: right now, so there's still good value in that. I

375
00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:17,280
Speaker 5: like agree with PJ that they are over and valued.

376
00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:20,080
Speaker 5: They are a little overinflated. With that being said, I

377
00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,480
Speaker 5: think we're overrating Benfica's defense a little bit. Like they

378
00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,080
Speaker 5: had four clean sheets in the Champions League group stage,

379
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:27,480
Speaker 5: but they conceded over one and expected goal in three

380
00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,320
Speaker 5: of those four games. They were very lucky against Barcelona,

381
00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,080
Speaker 5: where they conceded over one point four in both games

382
00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,000
Speaker 5: and didn't allow a goal. Barsia hit I think it

383
00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 5: was two posts, maybe three, and missed a couple of sitters.

384
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,520
Speaker 5: And then even against Kiev, Kiev legitimately missed an open

385
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:42,600
Speaker 5: net in the last match of that group stage and

386
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:46,000
Speaker 5: a must win spot where Kiev didn't care. So I

387
00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:48,040
Speaker 5: think i axed my truck them. That being said, I

388
00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:50,640
Speaker 5: do think Benfica can score because i ax's defense has

389
00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,000
Speaker 5: shown some leaks too, so I think there's gonna be

390
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,240
Speaker 5: a lot of goals. I think in that sense, yes,

391
00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,520
Speaker 5: Benfifica's probably little under value, but I did take IAX

392
00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:59,560
Speaker 5: on the money line. I think they win in Portugal

393
00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:00,000
Speaker 5: in the first.

394
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Speaker 4: We'll couch the Champions League talk until February. Like I said,

395
00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:07,320
Speaker 4: a lot more to come how these matchups will shape up.

396
00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:11,320
Speaker 4: Transfer window opens in about two weeks. Pretty exciting, but

397
00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:15,160
Speaker 4: the show must go on with LaLiga here. Who knows

398
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:17,400
Speaker 4: what's gonna happen with the Caramel Cup matches? Who knows

399
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:19,320
Speaker 4: what's going to happen with the festive fixers? With the

400
00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,399
Speaker 4: Premier League doesn't look all that good, but there is

401
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,680
Speaker 4: some soccer replate in the midweek, and there is a

402
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,200
Speaker 4: clear headliner, and that is in La Liga Savilla plus

403
00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:30,560
Speaker 4: one forty at home hosting Barcelona plus one eighty five,

404
00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:32,480
Speaker 4: the DRUS plus two fifty. This is a three thirty

405
00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,080
Speaker 4: pm kickoff on Tuesday, and look, if you are a

406
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,800
Speaker 4: soccer junkie, you're going to be tuning into this one because.

407
00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:39,000
Speaker 2: Who knows what else is going to be out there

408
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,680
Speaker 2: for you to watch. So let's hope this one goes on.

409
00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,880
Speaker 4: Savia's on a three game winning streak since they lost

410
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,399
Speaker 4: to Real Madrid, but they've been a luckbox. There's no

411
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Speaker 4: getting around it. This is a team that I love

412
00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,040
Speaker 4: to back. I was backing them throughout the Champions League.

413
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:53,000
Speaker 4: It didn't really work out.

414
00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:55,560
Speaker 2: So what did I do? I just jumped ship to Via. Yeah,

415
00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,520
Speaker 2: no skin off my back. I'm happy to do it.

416
00:17:57,960 --> 00:17:59,879
Speaker 4: Barcelona they are one one on one of their last three,

417
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 4: but great underlying numbers. However, I think with a team

418
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,680
Speaker 4: like this where it's clearly a work in progress, the

419
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:07,760
Speaker 4: underlying metrics do.

420
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Speaker 2: They tell a good portion of the story.

421
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,280
Speaker 4: But there's also something you said about being able to

422
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,000
Speaker 4: manage a game right, and this is a young inexperience

423
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:18,280
Speaker 4: relative to what we're used to seeing from Barcelona where

424
00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:20,639
Speaker 4: they have the messies of the world, and this is

425
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Speaker 4: a different team.

426
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Speaker 2: This is a team that hasn't fully gelled yet.

427
00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:24,840
Speaker 4: So there's going to be a lot of situations like

428
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,000
Speaker 4: this where maybe they do bossa game and draw to

429
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:28,680
Speaker 4: teams like Lcha or whoever.

430
00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 2: That being said, it does look like a little bit

431
00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:33,800
Speaker 2: of a by low spot on Barsa and Anthony.

432
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,080
Speaker 4: That's been one of your favorite hobbies throughout the winter

433
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:38,320
Speaker 4: by low Barcelona.

434
00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,919
Speaker 2: They're not big bad Barcelona. Anywhere they're by Low Barcelona.

435
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:42,040
Speaker 2: Is this one of those spots?

436
00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 5: I have a group chat with a few friends and

437
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:46,720
Speaker 5: they're not as into soccer as I am, and sometimes

438
00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 5: I drop picks in there and think, you know, spots

439
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,240
Speaker 5: I really like and they're interested enough to you know,

440
00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:53,840
Speaker 5: get get in involved. Whenever I drop a Barcelona pick,

441
00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 5: I'm immediately met with significant resistance, and I think that's

442
00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:01,000
Speaker 5: pretty much where the public perception has fallen on Barcelona.

443
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:04,480
Speaker 5: And look, this podcast was one of the many and

444
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:06,240
Speaker 5: or at least the two of us on the three

445
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,359
Speaker 5: of us on this podcast where were frequent faders of

446
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 5: Barcelona and in the recent memory getting back to last

447
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:14,200
Speaker 5: year and times before that, especially in the Champions League.

448
00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,480
Speaker 5: But they still have the best expected goals difference in

449
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 5: La Liga, and they have the most young talent of

450
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:22,320
Speaker 5: anyone in La Liga, and they have guys like Gavi

451
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 5: who were playing much better. Incredible move for that third

452
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:28,240
Speaker 5: goal to beat Elcha at the weekend. I think this

453
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:33,119
Speaker 5: is an excellent Bilow spot on Barcelona. Yes, they lost

454
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 5: to Batist, they were unlucky in that game. They drew Osasuna,

455
00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:38,719
Speaker 5: they were probably a little unlucky in that game too.

456
00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:40,920
Speaker 5: The finishing just has not been there for them. But

457
00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:44,520
Speaker 5: they're playing a Seville team. You mentioned it, total luck box.

458
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:46,639
Speaker 5: When we go back at their last three wins, and

459
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,720
Speaker 5: they've all been impressive wins on paper. They beat Virial,

460
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 5: Bilbao and at Letti in consecutive games, three of the

461
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,679
Speaker 5: probably six best teams in Spain. They've scored four goals

462
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 5: from one expected goal in that and they have allowed

463
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:03,199
Speaker 5: one goal with five expected so minus four expected goal difference,

464
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 5: they've actually had a plus three actual goal difference. Viria

465
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,239
Speaker 5: was much better than them, bill Bao created over two

466
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:12,840
Speaker 5: expected goals in that game, and then ed Letiko even

467
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 5: though Sevilla was at home, and we know how Edletico

468
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,199
Speaker 5: tends to be pragmatic, especially away from home. They let

469
00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,159
Speaker 5: you have the ball on the counter, so we only

470
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 5: had fifty four percent possession and they had fewer final

471
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:27,160
Speaker 5: third and penaltaria touches than ed Letti in that game.

472
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 5: So that tells me that Sevilla had a lot of

473
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,920
Speaker 5: nothing possession and that they struggled to create and hit

474
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,359
Speaker 5: with any type of pace or any type of speed

475
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 5: in transition. That's where Barcelona is vulnerable defensively, and I

476
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 5: don't think they're quite as vulnerable to the slow build

477
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 5: up play that low Patagi and Sevilla want to play,

478
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,639
Speaker 5: and so for that reason, I think Barcelona smothers them here.

479
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,400
Speaker 5: I understand that it's on the road, but I really

480
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 5: don't think they should be an underdog. And it's one

481
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,639
Speaker 5: of my favorite spots of the year. I like Barcelona

482
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 5: drawn opet plus one twenty. Look, I know it's gonna

483
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 5: end in pain. Yeah, maybe Vacatico hit a thirty yard

484
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,680
Speaker 5: screamer or they'll score like a double deflected corner in

485
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 5: the eighty eighth minute to dash my hopes and dreams.

486
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,159
Speaker 5: But this this is a great spot, and I was

487
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 5: hoping Barsia wouldn't you know, find the win against LJ.

488
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 5: But I absolutely love the boys from Barsa and it's

489
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 5: Bilo Barsa.

490
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 4: Like you said, yeah, by low Barsa, and it would

491
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 4: be a signature win which they desperately need to like.

492
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,160
Speaker 4: This season needs to kind of galvanize at some point

493
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 4: for this team under JAVII. And I think you know

494
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:31,399
Speaker 4: a win over Sava second right now in La Liga

495
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 4: and would do it?

496
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 2: BJ.

497
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 4: I don't think you have much on this one in

498
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,120
Speaker 4: terms of you know, action, but Anthony convinced me I'm

499
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:39,919
Speaker 4: going to jump on the Barcelona money line here.

500
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 1: Anything for you, Yeah, I'm gonna push back a little

501
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 1: bit on Barcelona because they're first of all, they're having

502
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 1: a growing injury list right now. Nodpai, Nodas, no Peedrie,

503
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 1: no sergery, Roberto, no Ansufati, So that's concerning.

504
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 3: I know, I understand they have a lot of young talent.

505
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 2: Now, I tried to Bilo.

506
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 1: In Barcelona this past week and against LJA, I took

507
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 1: them minus one and a half and they were completely

508
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 1: dominating the entire all the way up until the sixty

509
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:02,440
Speaker 1: second minute.

510
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,120
Speaker 3: Then they were lazy getting back. In transition.

511
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 1: LJA, one of the worst offenses in La Liga, made

512
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 1: two passes, scored a goal, and then literally the next

513
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 1: minute they completely forgot to.

514
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 3: Mark a guy on the back side of the net

515
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 3: and just an easy header in the back of the net.

516
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 3: So that's concerning when you're facing a Sevia team that

517
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,719
Speaker 3: can hit you pretty hard on the counter. I understand

518
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 3: they play a slow, pragmatic pace, but still if you

519
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 3: go look at the two goals they allowed, it's quite

520
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 3: shocking how much area they afforded one of the worst

521
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 3: offensive teams in Spain. Now, I understand, I totally agree

522
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 3: with Anthony everything you said about the data. Sevilla is

523
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 3: pretty much kind of like a paper tiger right now,

524
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 3: sitting in second place only a plus three point four

525
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,360
Speaker 3: expect a gold differential, while Barcelona's at eleven point nine.

526
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 3: So purely from a mathematical standpoint, I totally agree that

527
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 3: Barcelona it probably should be close to a pick him

528
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 3: if you want to give the home field advantage to Sevilla.

529
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 3: But what's interesting about this matchup is that Barcelona is

530
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 3: really really good at pressing undershot. They're number one in

531
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 3: passes per defensive action. But Savia is the number one

532
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 3: team in Spain against pressure. So it does give me

533
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 3: pause betting Barcelona in this one.

534
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 1: I'd probably need two to one or you know, plus

535
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 1: one twenty on the drawn o bet line or better

536
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 1: to play it so to pass for me right now,

537
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 1: But if Sybilla gets seemed, I'll be trying to jump

538
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 1: in again on Barcelona.

539
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 2: All right.

540
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 4: From LaLiga to Syria. There are some matches in Italy

541
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 4: going down over the next few days, so let's park

542
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 4: our favorite bets over there. Anthony, do you want to

543
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 4: get started here?

544
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'd be happy to look.

545
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:26,239
Speaker 2: You know, I think I do them.

546
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 5: I think I do the the Lazzio fade like on

547
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 5: a daily basis at this point or a weekly basis,

548
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 5: they're just not very good and they have so much

549
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 5: attacking regression coming. They again overperform their expected goals in

550
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 5: a home win against Genoa, broke both of our hearts

551
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 5: in the way that they scored two quick goals in

552
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 5: succession and then conceded right after to lose both my

553
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,120
Speaker 5: plus one point two five on Genoa and BJ's both

554
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,360
Speaker 5: teams to score no. So that was fun on Friday afternoon.

555
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 5: Nice little birthday present for me. But that being said,

556
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 5: this is a good fate spot on the road. They've

557
00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 5: been significantly worse on the road than they've been at

558
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 5: home this year, mainly because their regression. Their their overperformance

559
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 5: in terms of expective goals is pretty much all come

560
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 5: at home. And I'm not going to sit here and

561
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 5: tell you that Vanetsia is some world beater, But they've

562
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 5: proven themselves to be a pretty solid defense in terms

563
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 5: of preventing big chances and making teams shoot from distance.

564
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 5: They have one of the longest shot distances allowed in

565
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 5: Sirie I and I tend to think that's a pretty

566
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,439
Speaker 5: good indicator. Now, that doesn't mean Loatzio won't just hit

567
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 5: two bangers and kill it, but against a Lotzio attack

568
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 5: that has created the fourth most big scoring chances, I'd

569
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 5: like the fact that Vanetsia is pretty good at preventing

570
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 5: opponents from getting clear chances inside you know, the main

571
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 5: scoring area and six yard area. They're pretty good defense

572
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 5: will be there, and overall, I think it's a good

573
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,640
Speaker 5: good fade spot for Latzio here on the road against

574
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 5: one of the worst teams in the league. So at

575
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 5: plus one twenty plus a half, my number makes them

576
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 5: significantly cheaper than that, So I'm going with Vanetsia plus

577
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 5: a half at plus one twenty, just another.

578
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:04,719
Speaker 4: Good fades spot on well dressed Venetsia, American owned BJA.

579
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,360
Speaker 4: Anything you got for us in Syria this week?

580
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Napoli Spetsia and both teams score no.

581
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 1: At minus one twenty. I really don't see how Spetsia

582
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 1: creates anything of value in this match. Their bottom six

583
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 1: and pretty much every single offensive metric, including only creating

584
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: one non penalty expected over match, only ten point eight

585
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 1: shots per ninety minutes and about fourteen point five box

586
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 1: centuries per match, and they're going against the number one

587
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 1: defense in Italy, Napolei is only allowing point seventy to

588
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 1: one non penalty expected goals per match, and in fact,

589
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 1: Napoli has only allowed their opponents to create over one

590
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 1: expected goal three times this entire season. That came against

591
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: Inter Roma and Atalanta, so they've been incredibly solid at

592
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 1: the back. Now they have been overperforming offensively thirty four

593
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:48,919
Speaker 1: goals off of twenty seven expected goals, and they are

594
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 1: dealing with some injuries in their attack. Victor Euschman is

595
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,640
Speaker 1: out for an extended period of time, Insigney is questionable

596
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 1: for this one, so that obviously hurts them, and also

597
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,919
Speaker 1: Napolei's matches have been pretty low event as of late.

598
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: They actually there's only been one big scoring chance created

599
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 1: in total in their last five matches, so that's kind

600
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 1: of concerning. Specia has struggled offensively when they've had to

601
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 1: face some of the big sides, only three point seven

602
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: expected goals in six matches versus the top six in Italy.

603
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 1: I really don't see how Spetsy is going to get

604
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 1: on the board here. I have the both team to

605
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 1: score no line projected at minus one ninety three, so

606
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 1: I think there's a ton of value on both team

607
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:27,880
Speaker 1: to score no at minus one twenty.

608
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 4: Unfortunately, Bundesliga is off for their winter break, which means

609
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 4: head back to Spain La Liga and we can talk

610
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 4: about our favorite bets there. Anthony bj was just talking

611
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 4: about a low event team. I think you're taking us

612
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 4: on a low event journey here with your pick.

613
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,399
Speaker 5: You know, they generally play that way, but they attack.

614
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,639
Speaker 5: You know, somebody should probably tell the Billbo attack to

615
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 5: creating way too many chances because they are. And look,

616
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 5: credit them for that comeback win on Sunday that was incredible.

617
00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 5: Two to one down late was looking like a terrible

618
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 5: for me, and then everything swung really with Tottenham and

619
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 5: Liverpool and then of course bill Bo getting two late goals,

620
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:10,680
Speaker 5: including one I think it was the eighty eighth minute

621
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 5: they got the winner, got the goal ert and you know,

622
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 5: let out a little cheer. Finally some attacking regression. They

623
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 5: look they got out played. I mean, they were the

624
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:23,360
Speaker 5: worst team in the match. Pretty fortunate, but after all

625
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 5: of the of the underperforming results they've had relative to

626
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 5: their performances, they were due for a good one, a

627
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 5: good bouncer or true to go their way and much

628
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 5: in the same way Batiste was due due for a

629
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 5: bad one and so you know that thing tends to

630
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 5: even out in the long run. Well, Athletic Billboo is

631
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 5: playing our favorite team, Real Madrid, yet again, they just

632
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 5: played a few months ago. We all lost, I think,

633
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 5: or at least pushed and should have all won, and

634
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 5: Athletic in that game. If we go back and kind

635
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 5: of remember what happened, Real Madrid took an early lead

636
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 5: and then it was pretty much eighty minutes of you know,

637
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 5: just straight billbo attacked. They created two expected goals, missed

638
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,400
Speaker 5: a ton of sitters. Court TWI was standing on his head.

639
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 5: They had four or five great chances to score, could

640
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 5: not get it done and really was not even indicative

641
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 5: of the final score. And this was at Madrid. So

642
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 5: now they get them at home, and the money line

643
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 5: is a decent worth look, but what I'm playing here

644
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 5: is the drawn no bet line at plus one forty,

645
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 5: because I do think a draw would be a good

646
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 5: result for a bill bow and so they may not

647
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,239
Speaker 5: push for the lead if they're tied late. I think

648
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 5: there's a very good chance Real Madrid is controlling the

649
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 5: game flow looking for the winner. If it's tied late,

650
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 5: but I do think Real Madrid, who did have a

651
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 5: lot of regression today They had three point two six

652
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 5: expected goals against Cadiz and didn't score even Still, I

653
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,719
Speaker 5: think at home you have to back bill Bao here.

654
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 5: We wouldn't be exten nerds if we didn't, so I'm

655
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 5: taking them on the drawn no bet line at plus

656
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 5: one forty.

657
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, little foreshadowing. We're not done talking about bill Bao

658
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 4: for this episode. Bjay, What do you have in La Liga?

659
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going with a letti chum Madrid over.

660
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going to go over two and a half

661
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 3: at plus one twenty five against Granada.

662
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 1: Granado has founded out the worst defense in Spain this season,

663
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: one point four non penalty expectacles allowed per match, around

664
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 1: fifteen and a half shots per ninety loud, and they

665
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 1: allowed a little over one and a half big scoring

666
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 1: chances per match, which are all dead last in La Liga.

667
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 1: And that's not good because they're obviously facing Athletico Madrid

668
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: side that has been top five and pretty much every

669
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: single offensive metric this season.

670
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 3: Granada was struggling at the beginning of the year to

671
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 3: create a lot of chances. They were one of the

672
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 3: worst offenses in you know, the top five leagues in Europe.

673
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 3: But they've been on fire their last eight matches, averaging

674
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 3: one point six to eight expectacles for match.

675
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: Just hung four on Majorca this morning at seven am,

676
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: and that average of one point six to eight expectacles

677
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 1: for match is fifth.

678
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 3: In Laaliga during that time span. A lot of that

679
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 3: can be contributed to their manager, Roberto Moreno. He switched

680
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 3: to a four to four to two formation to give

681
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 3: them more continuity, more structure. It hasn't helped defensively, they're

682
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 3: still allowing over one point five expected goals per ninety minutes,

683
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 3: but it is the formation in which they average the

684
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 3: most expected goals out of now four to four to

685
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 3: two going is four to four two. It's not really

686
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 3: that you know, cohesive to and over, but given.

687
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: Granada's uptick offensively, I do think there's a good chance

688
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 1: they get on the board here and Athletico should be

689
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 1: able to put one or two by the worst defense

690
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 1: in Spain. So I have two point five to eight

691
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: goals projected for this match, so let's try to hit

692
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: it over with that.

693
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 3: Let it go over two and a half goals at

694
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 3: plus one twenty five.

695
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 4: And before we get to our favorite underdogs, we'll take

696
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 4: a trip to France league. Oh, they are in action

697
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 4: as well. BJ, you are the league expert on the show,

698
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 4: iowa's foremost league expert. I like to say, so, we'll

699
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 4: let you start, but I know Anthony also has a

700
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 4: play in France's week too.

701
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go back to LIL again minus one fifteen

702
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 1: on the road at Bordeaux. I've talked about it, you know,

703
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 1: pretty much every single show. I think every single League

704
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: one section. I'm just betting LIL. But they're undervalued again.

705
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 3: You know, they're the second best team by non penalty

706
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 3: expected goals this season defensively, allowing only point nine to

707
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 3: nine per match. Then they've allowed the fewest big scoring

708
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 3: chances in the league as well, And what's crazy is

709
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 3: that teams are just finishing at an incredibly high rate

710
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 3: against them. They've allowed twenty one goals out of their

711
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 3: four to four to two formation, but have only allowed

712
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 3: thirteen point seven expected goals. So over the second half

713
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 3: of the season, some positive aggression is going to come

714
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 3: for them defensively, and they're facing a Bordeaux team that

715
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 3: is pretty average offensively. You know they're eleventh in non

716
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 3: penalty expected goals eighth and shots per ninety and tenth

717
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 3: in big scoring chances, but Bordeaux is by.

718
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 1: Far the worst defense in all of France. They've allowed

719
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 1: forty goals in eighteen matches and so it's no surprise

720
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 1: that they're dead last and non penalty expected goals allowed

721
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: and big scoring chances allowed. They haven't been great at

722
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 1: home either, minus seven point one expected gold defferential. Wow,

723
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 1: Lil is actually the second best team in France by

724
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 1: expected gold differential on the road at plus three point

725
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 1: two this season, So I have little projected at minus

726
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 1: one forty seven. So I love them at minus one fifteen.

727
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 2: Antony, what's your play over in France this week?

728
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 5: Not sure there's a week where BJA hasn't bet Lil uh,

729
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 5: and that's that's pretty funy week. Maybe they're gonna be

730
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 5: But will you bet them against Chelsea? That's the real test.

731
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 2: Maybe did you see how Chelsea played the last few weeks?

732
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 3: I mean maybe yeah.

733
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 5: Look we've been saying it on this podcast Chelsea, but uh,

734
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 5: I'm building the courage slowly. I have two months to

735
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 5: build my courage to bet Lil against Chelsea plus three seventy.

736
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 5: That price is just calling my name. With that being said,

737
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 5: I'm taking my little journey to France set at Tien. Now,

738
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 5: let's take a little history lesson in case you guys

739
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 5: don't know about this perennially mid table team. They've been

740
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 5: within six expected goals for the entire season over a

741
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 5: thirty eight match season plus or minus each of the

742
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 5: last five years until this year, and their numbers have

743
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 5: taken a bit of a plunge. BJ mentioned it. Bordeaux

744
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 5: has conceded forty goals, the worst in Legane. Well, Sanatiana

745
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 5: is conceded thirty nine, the second worst by one goal.

746
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 5: Great mat there, and so that's pretty concerning. But let's

747
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 5: get to the underlying numbers about this Senaten team. They're

748
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 5: expected goals allowed is only thirty point six, so they're

749
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 5: conceding about twenty five percent more goals than you'd expect.

750
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 5: Maybe it's just a bad run, Maybe the club is

751
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 5: all of a sudden worse after they've been a pretty

752
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 5: solidly between seventh and thirteenth place team for the last

753
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 5: five years. I don't think that all of a sudden

754
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 5: Senate teen has become this terrible team. I've been trying

755
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 5: to buy low on them. They've now lost four in

756
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 5: a row and that includes an unlucky result against Ren

757
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 5: where they were relatively competitive for about seventy five minutes

758
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 5: and then fell apart. They had a performance against PSG

759
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 5: where they were the better side for large portions of

760
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 5: it and then got a red cardon collapsed. There's been

761
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 5: a lot of fluky results that have gone against this team.

762
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 5: They're now getting nants at home and they're also a

763
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 5: solidly mid table team in terms of their performances this year,

764
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 5: but they're also playing a little bit above their heads

765
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 5: relative to their talent level based on what their their

766
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 5: squad is really worth and based on their expectations coming

767
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 5: into the season. So you're getting a good by low

768
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 5: spot on a relegation team who needs the points, on

769
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 5: a team who shouldn't and is used to being in

770
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:03,239
Speaker 5: the relegation spots. And I think they're gonna bounce back here.

771
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 5: So to get them at only minus one ten on

772
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 5: the drawing of bet line at home, I'm on Sinetienne

773
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 5: to take all three points here. I'm going at least

774
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 5: a draw for the push, but I think they'll win.

775
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,800
Speaker 2: This now for the most exciting part of the program.

776
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 4: I think it's our favorite part two, our favorite underdogs.

777
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,879
Speaker 4: We will force quastion you to tread lightly with these

778
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 4: they are dogs for a reason, and then we will

779
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 4: tell you exactly what the parlay would pay out if

780
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 4: you wrapped.

781
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 2: All three together. I'm going to start us off here.

782
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,400
Speaker 4: Athletic Club bill Bao. We talked about it already. Anthony

783
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 4: touched on them, Los Leonis the Lions. There. You know

784
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 4: why they're named nicknamed the Lions because there was a

785
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 4: saint from I guess around that area, Saint Mamis, who

786
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,400
Speaker 4: was thrown to the Lions by the Romans. So to

787
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 4: honor him, the club is nicknamed Los Leones the Lions.

788
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 4: They're taking on Real Madrid there plus two forty three thirty.

789
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 2: Pm kickoff on Wednesday. Athletic bill Bow's numbers are terrific.

790
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,399
Speaker 4: They're a low event team that deserves a lot more

791
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 4: offensive regression than they've they've seen so far, and we've

792
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 4: this Mia Madrid team is punching above its weight in

793
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:06,360
Speaker 4: terms of its underlying metrics.

794
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 2: It's just a good spot. Gobao Is.

795
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 4: I think on the ascendency, I want to be surprised

796
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:12,880
Speaker 4: if they are challenging for a Champions League spot in

797
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 4: La Liga. Went all said and done, I really liked

798
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 4: this club. We've been betting them a lot as a podcast,

799
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 4: and we will do it again at plus two forty

800
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 4: to kickoff Howard Underdog parlay for this week, BJ.

801
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 3: Who do you have?

802
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:25,879
Speaker 2: Who's your dog?

803
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:27,280
Speaker 3: Oh man Michael.

804
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,960
Speaker 1: I the last three weeks that we've done this, I've

805
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 1: just been experiencing some of the most painful losses of

806
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 1: my entire life. We had Venetia, you know, blow a

807
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 1: three goal lead against Verona, we had an essay give

808
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: up a stoppage time pinball goal its Laton and asy Milan,

809
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 1: and then this morning, I'm sure while everybody was sleeping

810
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,800
Speaker 1: at five thirty am Central time, so Swallow took a

811
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:54,439
Speaker 1: two nothing lead against Fiorentina, and Fiorentina came back, tied

812
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 1: it up to too, got a red card and so

813
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:57,839
Speaker 1: Swallow couldn't put one in the back of the nets.

814
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 1: So that's three straight where I've had underdog blow at

815
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 1: least a multiple cold lead. So why not go back

816
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 1: to one of those underdogs that broke my heart? Venetia

817
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,919
Speaker 1: plus three ten at home against Lasio. Anthony already touched

818
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 1: on it. This Lastio team very overrated on the road

819
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 1: minus six point four. Expect to go differential on the

820
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 1: road this season. Also, Serra Mobley did not feature on Friday.

821
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 1: He's experiencing a gastro intestinal issue, so he's questionable right

822
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 1: now to play for this match. If he's out, that's,

823
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:27,840
Speaker 1: you know, detrimental to Lazio, who is, like Anthonyardy mentioned,

824
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 1: is very reliant on big scoring chances. They're sixteenth and

825
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,359
Speaker 1: shots per ninety in Syria, so basically everything just comes

826
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 1: off of big scoring chances. That's where Venisia is the

827
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 1: best Defensively.

828
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna sit here and say that this Venezia

829
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 3: offense is some type of juggernaut because they're not their

830
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,280
Speaker 3: bottom five and pretty much every single metric. But Lazio

831
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 3: is very below average defense. So this is just a

832
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 3: classic spot where Lazio is overvalued. So I love Venetia

833
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 3: plus three ten to break my heart once again.

834
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 4: I mean, what do I say at the top of

835
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,320
Speaker 4: this portion of the program every time, Not for the

836
00:36:58,360 --> 00:36:59,840
Speaker 4: fan of heart, not for the fan of heart, not

837
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 4: for the faint of heart. These bets, Anthony, what is

838
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 4: your bet that isn't for the fan of heart to

839
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 4: take us home.

840
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, my official prediction for BJ's bet is I mobile

841
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 5: A comes off the bench despite his gastro stomach pain,

842
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 5: scores a goal and then you know, is hunched over

843
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 5: in pain, but you know the goal still counts and

844
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 5: it ends in a draw. But getting that out there now,

845
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 5: my prediction.

846
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 2: Twenty minute Patrick coming off the bench to win three two.

847
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 2: That's what I'm thinking.

848
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's all he can do. He's getting carried off

849
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:31,360
Speaker 5: the field after the game because he put all he

850
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 5: had out there. Anyway, Look, I talked about this already.

851
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 5: They're plus two hundred at some shops if you look

852
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:42,720
Speaker 5: around Barcelona on the money line. Sevilla this year twenty

853
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 5: one expected goals they'd scored twenty eight defensively, seventeen expected

854
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:50,280
Speaker 5: goals allowed they would conceded twelve. They're expected goals four numbers.

855
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 5: They have one less game than some of the people

856
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 5: in front of them, but they're not really close enough

857
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 5: to catch them reasonably. They have the ninth most expected

858
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 5: goals per ninety, seventh best non penalty expected goals per ninety.

859
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 2: This attack just.

860
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 5: Isn't creating a lot, and they've had some injuries. Rafamir

861
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:06,839
Speaker 5: has been out of the lineup on Nasri's been out

862
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 5: of the lineup, So it's not entirely, you know, just

863
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 5: them playing worse. They do have guys who were out

864
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 5: that were good players, but they're not creating enough here

865
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 5: against Barcelona, who with a game in hand on the

866
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 5: entire you know, main pack chasing them has created the

867
00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 5: most expected goals. So Real Madrid. We all talk about

868
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,240
Speaker 5: how good Benzam and Venetias are, well, Barsa have combined

869
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 5: to create more chances and I understand there's injuries for

870
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:32,439
Speaker 5: Barson and bj laid that out and that's a little

871
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 5: bit concerning. But we've seen against LJA, granted a much

872
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,480
Speaker 5: worse competition that these young guys that they're turning to,

873
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:43,919
Speaker 5: most notably Gavi, are able to really pull strings, create

874
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:46,320
Speaker 5: chances and make things happen. So with all of the

875
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:49,840
Speaker 5: regression that's coming from Barcelona against a luckbox in Sevilla,

876
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 5: I think it's a great spot here. Savia has been

877
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 5: kind of tumbling recently, and so on the money line,

878
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 5: I'm on Barcelona plus two hundred, so that's Bilo Barcelona,

879
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 5: the Basque Boys of.

880
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 2: Bill Bao and Venicia out of Syria.

881
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 4: You put those three teams together, you're looking at a

882
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 4: forty one to one three team parlay, which would be I'm.

883
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 5: Feeling good this week.

884
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 2: I don't feel you know what, We don't ever say that.

885
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 2: We never say that we're feeling I really don't because we.

886
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 5: Never I'm feeling good that all three matches will be played,

887
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 5: which is better than we've been doings. And thank you

888
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:25,479
Speaker 5: other leagues for having high vaccination rates.

889
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 4: All right, now that we've wrapped up our under the

890
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,360
Speaker 4: dog parlay, we'll move on to our best bets for

891
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 4: the week.

892
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 2: BJ I'll kick it to you first.

893
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:34,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love Roma minus one at home plus one

894
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 1: or five against Sampdoria. This line's way too low for

895
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:40,280
Speaker 1: a really good Jose Mourinho team right now that's.

896
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:41,359
Speaker 3: Starting to play much better.

897
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 1: Roma is second in Syria A in non penalty expected

898
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 1: goals shots per ninety and big scoring chances, all that

899
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 1: just behind Enter.

900
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 3: They've been improving defensively.

901
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 1: Anthony's laid down a few podcasts a go, but their

902
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 1: last six matches they've only allowed five expected goals and

903
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 1: they're taking on a Sampdoria team that is very underwhelm

904
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 1: fifteenth and non penalty expected goals four and fifteenth and

905
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:05,800
Speaker 1: non penalty expected goals against.

906
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 3: This is a great spot for Roma to continue to

907
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 3: stay red hot. They won two in a row against

908
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 3: Betsy and got a great win against Atlanta this weekend

909
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 3: on the road. So give me Jose Mourinho and hopefully

910
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 3: the match ends. Jose three, Sam Doria zero. Give me

911
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 3: Roma minus one and plus one.

912
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 2: O five, Anthony, what is your favorite bet in the

913
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 2: SACER this week?

914
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 5: Yeah, I've already mentioned this a couple of times, but

915
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 5: it's Barcelona. Joon no bett at plus one twenty. Sevilla

916
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 5: is very overrated. They come into this game with expected

917
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 5: goals numbers in the last three matches they're minus four

918
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 5: and expected goals plus three and actual goals. They stole

919
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 5: results against both Virial bill Bao and Atletico Madrid. One

920
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:46,160
Speaker 5: came on a late goal. One came on an opponent

921
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 5: missing a ton of clear cut chances that should have

922
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 5: tied the match. Viial also created one point nine expected

923
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 5: goals against the Sevilla team. They have some injuries on

924
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 5: both sides that need to be considered here, including key

925
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:00,120
Speaker 5: attackers on both ends, so I think it generally it

926
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:03,879
Speaker 5: washes out. But Barcelona, despite all of the negative press

927
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 5: and all of the negativity, it is time to be

928
00:41:06,160 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 5: by low Barsa because they have the best expected goals numbers.

929
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 5: They have created more expected goals than any other team

930
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:15,800
Speaker 5: in La Liga, and if for a few different bounces

931
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 5: had gone their way this year, we'd be talking about

932
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 5: them in a very different light and maybe highlighting their

933
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 5: young talent instead of taking our chances to mock their finances.

934
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 5: And they're falling out of the Champions League, which admitted

935
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 5: they have been funny. But that being said, it's by Lobarsa.

936
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 5: We've been talking about it on this pod, the entire

937
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:34,839
Speaker 5: show at drowna bet at plus one twenty.

938
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,280
Speaker 2: It's time and I'm going to go to La Ligue

939
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 2: as well.

940
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:41,320
Speaker 4: Letico Madrid minus one plus one oh five taken on Bernada,

941
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:44,800
Speaker 4: let it goo Madrid incredible defensive numbers. Bernada not a

942
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:48,359
Speaker 4: team that will threaten to really dent those defensive numbers much,

943
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:50,800
Speaker 4: I don't think, so I trust Atletico to get margin

944
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 4: here plus one oh five. I think there's better than

945
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 4: a fifty percent chance that Atletico storms them here. Not

946
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 4: only are their defensive numbers spectacular, their offensive numbers top

947
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 4: across most underlying metrics we look at, and like BJ

948
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 4: was alluding to before, Renata's defense is brutal. So give

949
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 4: me Diego Simone laying one goal on the road plus

950
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 4: one oh five on Wednesday afternoon.

951
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 2: That's a one pm kickoff. And on that note, we

952
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 2: will wrap up this episode of Wonder Goal.

953
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 4: I'd like to say that we will see you on

954
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:20,960
Speaker 4: Thursday morning, but I'm not totally sure that's going to

955
00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:21,359
Speaker 4: be the case.

956
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 2: We just don't really know.

957
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,320
Speaker 4: We'll let the schedule kind of dictate and if we

958
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 4: are back on Thursday morning, and if we're not, have

959
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 4: a wonderful holiday and we will see you on the

960
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 4: other side. So, for DJ Cunninghams and Anthony Dufundo, I'm

961
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 4: Micha Lebuff saying good luck with your footy flutters this week.