WEBVTT - Nate and Maria’s 2025 Predictions 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:28.764 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:28.804 --> 0:00:31.524 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 0:00:31.244 --> 0:00:32.404 And I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:33.124 --> 0:00:35.564 Nate Today is going to be a fun show. You're 0:00:35.604 --> 0:00:39.564 taping from Tokyo, I'm taping from New York, so from 0:00:39.644 --> 0:00:43.044 opposite sides of the world. We'll be talking about our 0:00:43.084 --> 0:00:46.244 predictions for twenty twenty five on a whole number of things, 0:00:46.484 --> 0:00:49.004 a whole bunch of topics, from you know, economics and 0:00:49.044 --> 0:00:53.564 politics to pop culture and lots of things in between, sports, 0:00:53.884 --> 0:00:57.124 fashion choices. I think you'll enjoy this one. Let's get 0:00:57.124 --> 0:00:57.404 into it. 0:00:57.484 --> 0:01:02.284 Nate, Happy twenty twenty five. 0:01:02.324 --> 0:01:07.804 Everybody Happy twenty twenty five. It's a quarter thing century. 0:01:08.124 --> 0:01:12.124 It's a good boy, all right. Yeah, that's insane. God, 0:01:12.484 --> 0:01:17.324 what were you doing on New Year's two thousand? On 0:01:17.524 --> 0:01:20.444 New Year's two thousand, Oh my god, I was still 0:01:20.604 --> 0:01:27.044 in high school, I was God, yeah, I was in 0:01:27.124 --> 0:01:30.244 high school. So I was with my family. Where were 0:01:30.284 --> 0:01:31.364 you twenty five years ago? 0:01:32.724 --> 0:01:36.324 I was in on a beach in Key West, Florida, nice, 0:01:36.644 --> 0:01:42.284 doing various substances that may or may not have been 0:01:42.364 --> 0:01:44.644 legal in the state of Florida. And we'll leave it 0:01:44.684 --> 0:01:44.964 at that. 0:01:45.084 --> 0:01:47.484 Sounds good. I think there's I think you're good on 0:01:47.524 --> 0:01:53.764 the statute of limitations. Okay, okay, all right, so let's 0:01:53.764 --> 0:01:56.404 get into it. So we have a bunch of different 0:01:56.444 --> 0:02:02.164 topics ranging from you know, crypto to pop culture. Do 0:02:02.204 --> 0:02:04.084 you want to start it off with kind of one 0:02:04.084 --> 0:02:05.964 of the big topics that we've talked about on the 0:02:06.004 --> 0:02:10.444 show multiple times, which is bitcoin. What do you think 0:02:10.524 --> 0:02:14.724 nate will be the highest price that bitcoin will reach 0:02:14.804 --> 0:02:16.324 this year? And what do you think will be the 0:02:16.364 --> 0:02:20.044 lowest price bitcoin will reach? If you want, I can 0:02:20.044 --> 0:02:24.524 start a soft way. So we're looking at polymarket, where 0:02:24.524 --> 0:02:28.084 I'm an advisor says that the over. 0:02:28.004 --> 0:02:32.924 Under mark is roughly one twenty k by market thirty first. 0:02:33.164 --> 0:02:35.764 That's not the end of the year, yeah, and any. 0:02:35.604 --> 0:02:38.884 K on the lowest and by March thirty first. You know, look, 0:02:38.964 --> 0:02:41.204 I mean, if you had to like, this is a 0:02:41.244 --> 0:02:43.044 really hard question, it is a really hard question. 0:02:43.124 --> 0:02:45.684 Yeah. 0:02:46.124 --> 0:02:50.324 Yeah, let me say the high is the high is 0:02:50.404 --> 0:02:53.804 one forty is my over under, and the low is 0:02:55.804 --> 0:03:01.004 sixty right, Okay, all right, that's I'm just doubling. I'm 0:03:01.044 --> 0:03:05.004 just doubling polymarket. I trust that people in poly market 0:03:05.164 --> 0:03:07.044 a lot of crypto friendly types there. I trust that 0:03:07.124 --> 0:03:09.284 the market is smarter than I am, and I'm just 0:03:09.444 --> 0:03:12.964 doubling the range. Sure, So yeah, March thirty first through 0:03:13.004 --> 0:03:13.564 the end of the year. 0:03:13.604 --> 0:03:16.564 Okay, that's pretty smart. I am going to go higher 0:03:16.644 --> 0:03:21.164 than you. I am going to say one eighty high 0:03:21.364 --> 0:03:24.524 for twenty twenty five. So I think that there are 0:03:24.524 --> 0:03:26.964 a lot of people, a lot of smart crypto people 0:03:26.964 --> 0:03:28.804 who think it will hit two hundred and might even 0:03:28.844 --> 0:03:30.564 go over two hundred. I don't think it will go 0:03:30.644 --> 0:03:33.164 that high, but I'm going to be bullish and I'm 0:03:33.164 --> 0:03:36.924 going to say one eighty. And on the low side, 0:03:37.124 --> 0:03:40.244 I'm not sure. I will say seventy. I will say 0:03:40.284 --> 0:03:41.404 seventy as the low. 0:03:41.724 --> 0:03:43.924 So are you buying I mean that sounds pretty asymmetric 0:03:43.964 --> 0:03:46.924 where you should be buying bio. Are you buying bitcoin? 0:03:47.644 --> 0:03:52.164 I am not currently buying bitcoin, but I think that 0:03:52.604 --> 0:03:56.124 bitcoin is actually something that potentially I should start buying. 0:03:56.364 --> 0:04:00.564 Especially as Donald Trump comes into office. We know that 0:04:00.724 --> 0:04:04.404 he hasn't necessarily delivered on, you know, things that he's 0:04:04.444 --> 0:04:07.404 promised in the past, but so far there are positive 0:04:07.444 --> 0:04:10.684 signs that he is going to be pretty pro crypto, 0:04:11.004 --> 0:04:14.324 and if all of those things come to pass. You know, normally, 0:04:14.364 --> 0:04:16.364 the way that you look at markets is, oh, you know, 0:04:16.404 --> 0:04:18.684 smart people have already priced this in, right, So the 0:04:18.684 --> 0:04:22.644 price of bitcoin already reflects people being optimistic about Donald 0:04:22.644 --> 0:04:24.924 Trump and what he's going to do and his policies. 0:04:25.404 --> 0:04:28.884 But I think that with crypto it doesn't necessarily work 0:04:28.924 --> 0:04:31.284 that way, and the market doesn't price things in quite 0:04:31.284 --> 0:04:33.724 the same way as the stock market. I would say 0:04:33.724 --> 0:04:36.684 that it's less efficient in some ways and much more volatile, right. 0:04:36.724 --> 0:04:40.924 We see, you can see in the cryptocurrency world, you 0:04:40.924 --> 0:04:43.204 can see something go up five hundred percent, right, That 0:04:43.324 --> 0:04:46.644 just does not happen on the regular stock market. So 0:04:46.644 --> 0:04:49.644 so I would say that there's the upside is asymmetric, 0:04:49.764 --> 0:04:50.164 right now. 0:04:51.204 --> 0:04:53.884 See, I might argue that crypto is almost my definition 0:04:54.044 --> 0:04:58.684 ary vibe spased, right, Yeah, and it may over anticipate, 0:04:59.284 --> 0:05:01.564 it may overly be pricing it in, you know what 0:05:01.604 --> 0:05:01.924 I mean. 0:05:03.204 --> 0:05:05.444 Yeah, that's also very possible. 0:05:06.164 --> 0:05:07.724 And in general I'm wonder if there's like a little 0:05:07.724 --> 0:05:11.164 bit of irrational zoo Brenth. I mean, President's is hard, right, 0:05:12.684 --> 0:05:16.604 He's inheriting a pretty unhappy electorate. He will be surrounded 0:05:16.604 --> 0:05:19.364 by a mix of people, some of them are confident 0:05:19.364 --> 0:05:21.844 in many of whom aren't. He has very narrow majority 0:05:21.964 --> 0:05:27.324 in the House, right, Yeah, he's old. He and Eli 0:05:27.404 --> 0:05:30.444 will probably have a falling out at some point. B 0:05:30.444 --> 0:05:33.524 A BFFs. I don't know. I think there's kind of 0:05:33.564 --> 0:05:39.924 a I think the average Trump new convert enthusiast crypto 0:05:40.084 --> 0:05:45.444 enthusiast is a little high on fumes right now. And 0:05:46.324 --> 0:05:50.124 I remember, you know, kind of when uh, whenever there's 0:05:50.204 --> 0:05:52.284 new president, when there's a switch of parties, right, like 0:05:52.364 --> 0:05:56.204 people people don't understand how difficult it starts to look 0:05:56.804 --> 0:06:00.404 three to six months in right, you're doing your one 0:06:00.484 --> 0:06:03.084 hundred days stuff, although it's harder now than it used 0:06:03.084 --> 0:06:05.284 to be. But Trump will do some executive orders. We'll 0:06:05.284 --> 0:06:07.164 talk about that in a bit, and then I know, 0:06:07.204 --> 0:06:12.564 I think there's a short term bare case on Trump 0:06:12.644 --> 0:06:14.844 I think is probably worthwhile. And how that turns it 0:06:14.884 --> 0:06:17.884 to the crypto is not linear entirely. But like, it's 0:06:17.884 --> 0:06:19.364 hard to be president, that's all I'm saying. 0:06:19.364 --> 0:06:23.204 I totally agree with that. But because we're looking at 0:06:23.284 --> 0:06:27.364 by the you know, this year in total, right, we're 0:06:27.404 --> 0:06:29.244 not actually doing a prediction of where it's going to 0:06:29.244 --> 0:06:31.004 be next month or where it's going to end up. 0:06:31.004 --> 0:06:33.004 We're just saying, like, what is the high for twenty 0:06:33.044 --> 0:06:35.964 twenty five? And I actually think that the irrational exuberance 0:06:36.004 --> 0:06:40.044 will get us to that high at some point, and 0:06:40.084 --> 0:06:43.324 then it might crash right precipitously. And the reason I'm 0:06:43.364 --> 0:06:45.284 not buying bitcoin, by the way, is that I'm not 0:06:45.364 --> 0:06:48.964 confident enough in my ability to predict, you know, when 0:06:49.004 --> 0:06:51.724 those crashes will come and when those changes and sentiment 0:06:51.764 --> 0:06:53.844 will come. But I do think we're going to see 0:06:53.884 --> 0:06:57.684 something like that. So I think that there's a lot 0:06:57.684 --> 0:07:00.204 of a lot of things to be said for pre caution, 0:07:00.364 --> 0:07:03.164 but also for you know, let's put some of those 0:07:03.164 --> 0:07:08.044 irrationally exuberant predictions in there. Let's switch gears a little bit, 0:07:08.084 --> 0:07:10.324 sort of sort of because this is related to Trump. 0:07:10.684 --> 0:07:14.204 So how about a prediction about Trump's We've talked about 0:07:14.204 --> 0:07:16.964 the cabinet right and about his nominees. Do you have 0:07:17.164 --> 0:07:20.844 a prediction for how many cabinet nominees and this is 0:07:20.844 --> 0:07:23.484 starting now, so Gates does not count, will either be 0:07:23.564 --> 0:07:28.124 rejected or withdraw No Gates. Yeah, let's so gate Gates 0:07:28.164 --> 0:07:30.644 does not count because that has already happened. So starting now, 0:07:31.684 --> 0:07:32.884 let's bench tracker with poly Market. 0:07:32.964 --> 0:07:34.884 Poly Market says Pete haig Seth is an eighty six 0:07:34.924 --> 0:07:38.844 percent chance of being confirmed, Tulsa Gabbard seventy five percent, 0:07:38.924 --> 0:07:42.644 Cash Hotel eighty nine percent, RFK Junior eighty five percent, 0:07:42.884 --> 0:07:46.444 and then there are some other people that probably nobody 0:07:46.484 --> 0:07:49.924 cares about. Right, So let me do math fifteen twenty five, 0:07:51.164 --> 0:07:55.084 fifty sixty and then a little pocket change we get. 0:07:55.124 --> 0:07:59.284 So poly Market says that the best bet is probably 0:07:59.404 --> 0:08:06.964 one or zero. I'll go with zero. I think that 0:08:07.044 --> 0:08:10.364 like we saw the scalp with Mac, I think if 0:08:10.364 --> 0:08:12.564 you're going to have somebody else that it would have 0:08:12.644 --> 0:08:16.004 happened sooner in this kind of pre because the further 0:08:16.084 --> 0:08:19.564 you go, the more embarrassing to Trump, and most Republicans 0:08:19.604 --> 0:08:22.364 in the Senate actually don't want to embarrass Trump. And so, 0:08:22.484 --> 0:08:24.684 I mean, you know, the market says that Gabbard is 0:08:24.684 --> 0:08:28.644 the most likely wild card, and but but I think 0:08:28.644 --> 0:08:32.484 they've mostly survived. I mean out they'll survive the vetting 0:08:32.564 --> 0:08:36.084 making them look good, right, But there's no objective standard here, right, 0:08:36.124 --> 0:08:38.404 it's do you have fifty votes in the Senate? And 0:08:38.484 --> 0:08:40.764 I think I think they've probably survived it in a way. 0:08:40.844 --> 0:08:43.564 Mack age students. So I'll go with zero. I'll go 0:08:43.644 --> 0:08:44.724 he'll bet one thousand. 0:08:45.284 --> 0:08:47.364 The rest of the way, I actually agree with you, 0:08:47.444 --> 0:08:49.444 I was going to say zero. I don't think that 0:08:49.484 --> 0:08:51.724 anyone's going to withdraw, and I don't think anyone is 0:08:51.764 --> 0:08:53.684 going to be rejected. I think we're going to see 0:08:53.684 --> 0:08:55.844 the falls light confirmed. I think that people will tow 0:08:55.884 --> 0:08:58.044 party lines, and I think that we're going to see that. 0:08:58.204 --> 0:09:00.244 We're going to see everyone sail through. I don't even 0:09:00.284 --> 0:09:02.204 think it's going to be particularly close. 0:09:03.564 --> 0:09:09.404 Next question, you are eluding this, Maria, number of press 0:09:09.484 --> 0:09:12.284 secretaries in twenty twenty five. 0:09:12.844 --> 0:09:15.884 I am going to say that in twenty twenty five 0:09:16.244 --> 0:09:18.964 he is going to have two. That's going to be 0:09:19.004 --> 0:09:19.564 my prediction. 0:09:20.164 --> 0:09:23.924 Maria, we're agreeing too much here. I'm two seems like 0:09:23.924 --> 0:09:27.684 the rational modal number. It's a fucking hard job, it is. 0:09:28.564 --> 0:09:31.364 I mean, I kind of feel like press secretaries of 0:09:31.364 --> 0:09:33.804 the one people should be allowed to lie, you know 0:09:33.844 --> 0:09:35.964 what I mean, because you can't really do the job 0:09:36.004 --> 0:09:36.524 without lying. 0:09:36.724 --> 0:09:38.084 Well, I don't think. I mean, I think there's a 0:09:38.124 --> 0:09:43.844 difference and between lying and spinning, and there is, so 0:09:44.644 --> 0:09:47.164 I do. I'm not trying to play semantics here, right, 0:09:47.484 --> 0:09:50.204 So there's lying where like you're just like flat out 0:09:50.924 --> 0:09:53.724 saying something that you know is not true. And then 0:09:53.964 --> 0:09:58.604 there are like misrepresentations, which in some ways is worse 0:09:58.724 --> 0:10:01.084 right because it's harder to be like you lied. You 0:10:01.124 --> 0:10:03.164 can be like, well, no, like if you parse the 0:10:03.284 --> 0:10:07.684 sentence semantically, I didn't. Technically, I did not lie. And 0:10:07.724 --> 0:10:11.004 I think that that's more what press secretaries do. They're 0:10:11.044 --> 0:10:13.564 more spin doctory than they are. 0:10:13.964 --> 0:10:16.684 It's like a poker player, you know. Some poppe plays 0:10:16.724 --> 0:10:20.684 will not like actually lie about the contents of their hand. Right. 0:10:21.564 --> 0:10:23.164 You'll be like, do you have a pucket kings? And 0:10:23.204 --> 0:10:25.204 they'll be like, well, it's a big pair or something, 0:10:25.204 --> 0:10:28.044 you know what I mean. Yeah, I just lie about 0:10:28.044 --> 0:10:30.204 the kindents of my hand all the fucking time. In poker, 0:10:30.244 --> 0:10:31.924 it's like allowed. 0:10:31.964 --> 0:10:35.324 It is allowed, It is allowed. I don't do it there, No, 0:10:35.564 --> 0:10:38.124 I don't do it, but but it is absolutely allowed, 0:10:38.164 --> 0:10:40.924 and I totally don't blame you for doing it. The 0:10:41.004 --> 0:10:42.764 funniest thing, by the way, can we just do like 0:10:42.804 --> 0:10:46.604 a poker aside is when people lie about their hand 0:10:46.724 --> 0:10:50.124 on stream, on televised stream when their cards are shown, 0:10:50.564 --> 0:10:53.404 and it will become very very clear that they're lying. 0:10:54.244 --> 0:10:57.684 Scott sever does this all the time, and he'll just 0:10:57.724 --> 0:11:00.924 like with a straight face like be like fold you 0:11:00.924 --> 0:11:03.084 know I've got it, or like he'll he'll or just 0:11:03.124 --> 0:11:05.644 like completely lie what hand he has and like you 0:11:05.684 --> 0:11:08.244 can see he's lying and he just doesn't care. So 0:11:08.724 --> 0:11:11.404 I think that I think that that is definitely very accepted. 0:11:11.804 --> 0:11:14.924 I am more of the I don't like telling people, 0:11:15.124 --> 0:11:17.764 you know, what I had and they if they don't 0:11:17.884 --> 0:11:21.044 take that for an answer, I'll just say yes, right, Sullivan, 0:11:21.524 --> 0:11:22.324 did you have Kings? 0:11:22.404 --> 0:11:22.564 Yes? 0:11:22.604 --> 0:11:25.044 Did you have Queen's Yes? Did you have JACKX Yes? 0:11:25.324 --> 0:11:26.124 Did you have Ace King? 0:11:26.244 --> 0:11:26.484 Yes? 0:11:26.604 --> 0:11:29.724 Like I will, and if you start asking me more 0:11:29.764 --> 0:11:31.644 than one hand, you will realize that I'm just saying 0:11:31.724 --> 0:11:34.404 yes to everything. So I'll just do something like that, 0:11:35.204 --> 0:11:38.444 which you know will will normally shut people up. But 0:11:38.524 --> 0:11:40.884 I don't like to tell people what I have, as 0:11:40.884 --> 0:11:42.604 we've talked about before on the show, and I think 0:11:42.604 --> 0:11:46.324 this is an important point outside of poker. Information equals power. 0:11:46.444 --> 0:11:49.684 Do not give people information when you don't have to, right, 0:11:50.044 --> 0:11:53.684 have them know as little as possible about your intentions, 0:11:53.684 --> 0:11:57.404 how you play everything else. So yeah, two press secretaries. 0:11:57.724 --> 0:12:00.564 First ones never hold on. I mean, Trump just goes 0:12:00.604 --> 0:12:03.244 through press secretaries like none other. I wouldn't even be 0:12:03.324 --> 0:12:05.164 surprised to see three. But I think two is the 0:12:05.604 --> 0:12:09.044 right prediction. All right, we've got one more Trumps? What 0:12:09.124 --> 0:12:11.444 we have more than one? Trump has said he will 0:12:11.444 --> 0:12:15.084 declare a national emergency on his first day in office 0:12:15.124 --> 0:12:18.644 to begin mass deportations. Do you think he will do 0:12:18.684 --> 0:12:20.924 this on January twentieth? Is there going to be a 0:12:21.004 --> 0:12:22.364 national emergency declaration? 0:12:24.204 --> 0:12:27.724 Again? There is a market to calibrate to polymarket says 0:12:27.764 --> 0:12:31.684 eighty percent chance on day one he does issue at action. 0:12:31.604 --> 0:12:32.924 I have that seems high. 0:12:33.004 --> 0:12:38.084 Yeah. Well, look, I mean one of the things you 0:12:38.284 --> 0:12:40.524 can say Trump had a mandate to be elected on 0:12:40.684 --> 0:12:44.844 was immigration, right, and he clearly cares a lot about that. 0:12:44.844 --> 0:12:46.484 I mean, it's kind of core to his brand. I 0:12:46.484 --> 0:12:50.164 think it's within the purview of the one House issue 0:12:50.164 --> 0:12:54.204 executive action. So I'm going to say, yes, right, I 0:12:54.244 --> 0:12:56.604 have no reason to like, like, this is kind of 0:12:56.644 --> 0:12:58.564 what you promised. This is what he promised to do 0:12:59.244 --> 0:13:00.924 if you voted for Trump. This is what you were 0:13:00.924 --> 0:13:02.524 supposed to get, and I think he's going to do it. 0:13:04.444 --> 0:13:08.844 I mean, I think you're probably right, but I'm just 0:13:08.884 --> 0:13:12.004 gonna get of a completely. So this is the opposite 0:13:12.044 --> 0:13:13.764 of what we do here on Risky Business, which has 0:13:13.924 --> 0:13:16.724 use our rational minds to do predictions. I'm just gonna 0:13:16.884 --> 0:13:19.244 say he won't do it because I don't want him to. 0:13:19.604 --> 0:13:23.284 That is not how you make decisions. So the rational answers, yes, 0:13:23.364 --> 0:13:26.524 I think there will be a national emergency. My emotional 0:13:26.564 --> 0:13:30.524 answer is I hope there isn't and I hope that 0:13:30.564 --> 0:13:34.124 there are no mass deportations. But you're absolutely right that 0:13:34.204 --> 0:13:37.164 this is something that people that people you know did 0:13:37.204 --> 0:13:37.684 vote for. 0:13:38.404 --> 0:13:41.484 And so I mean if the reason why I think 0:13:42.084 --> 0:13:43.764 you want to take the yes and bet is like 0:13:44.284 --> 0:13:48.364 ify for whatever reason, is influenced by uh, I mean, 0:13:48.444 --> 0:13:51.044 Silicon Valley doesn't care as much about the illegal immigration, 0:13:51.084 --> 0:13:54.084 but if he's influenced to like take a softer line, 0:13:54.644 --> 0:13:56.604 I think he would still issue an executive order of 0:13:56.684 --> 0:13:58.644 some kind. It would and it would have fewer teeth 0:13:59.164 --> 0:14:00.844 or they wouldn't fight for it as much in the 0:14:00.884 --> 0:14:03.804 courts or right. I think he kind of has to 0:14:03.844 --> 0:14:08.204 like do this to kind of maintain face. What if 0:14:08.204 --> 0:14:10.684 he gets in and he's like, it's all long con 0:14:11.084 --> 0:14:13.244 it's all long coin of been a Democratic all time, 0:14:13.324 --> 0:14:16.204 including the first term. I know what place that. 0:14:16.244 --> 0:14:18.964 Was that was not Trump, I'm not sure who that was. 0:14:19.564 --> 0:14:25.884 Adam Sandler never, that was embarrassing, most embarrassing when williams. Hey, 0:14:25.924 --> 0:14:29.844 let's move on the next question. Will Elon Musk become 0:14:29.924 --> 0:14:35.524 the world's first trillionaire in twenty twenty five. His current 0:14:35.644 --> 0:14:38.284 net worth, according to Bloomberg, is four hundred and twenty 0:14:38.324 --> 0:14:42.444 six billion with a B dollars. 0:14:42.804 --> 0:14:45.404 I say no, I say he will not become a 0:14:45.444 --> 0:14:51.044 trillionaire in twenty twenty five. And I say this because 0:14:52.084 --> 0:14:55.484 Tesla has had disappointing sales this year. I realized that 0:14:55.484 --> 0:14:58.404 that's only one small part of his net worth, but 0:14:59.244 --> 0:15:01.484 you know it's it's an important one. And I also 0:15:01.524 --> 0:15:03.484 think that there's going to be some fallout with his 0:15:03.524 --> 0:15:08.284 association with Trump, including a fallout with Trump at some point, 0:15:08.364 --> 0:15:12.404 because I don't don't know of anyone, like any high 0:15:12.484 --> 0:15:15.964 profile marriage that Trump has had that has lasted, obviously 0:15:16.004 --> 0:15:19.524 including his actual marriages, but what I mean right now, 0:15:19.764 --> 0:15:23.364 you know, marriage with any kind of close political confidant. Right, 0:15:23.404 --> 0:15:26.684 he's broken up with all of them. He elevates advisors, 0:15:26.724 --> 0:15:29.844 He's like, you know, they're BFFs. They're really close, and 0:15:29.884 --> 0:15:32.444 then always there's you know, I don't know if it's 0:15:32.484 --> 0:15:34.804 ego clashing or what it is, but there's always a 0:15:34.844 --> 0:15:37.324 falling out. And I think that that's going to hurt Elon, 0:15:37.604 --> 0:15:40.044 and I think that's going to happen in twenty twenty five. 0:15:40.884 --> 0:15:43.524 So I don't think he's going to become poor, but 0:15:43.644 --> 0:15:47.404 I definitely do not see him becoming a trillionaire. There's 0:15:47.444 --> 0:15:52.084 also the AI component, and you know, I think it 0:15:52.124 --> 0:15:55.124 does matter whether you're bullish or bearish on the financial 0:15:55.164 --> 0:15:57.884 prospects of AI, and I don't think they're going to 0:15:57.924 --> 0:16:00.964 figure out their cash flow finances, you know, how to 0:16:00.964 --> 0:16:03.164 actually make money in the coming year. 0:16:03.964 --> 0:16:06.684 What do you think, Nate, So if someone else becomes 0:16:06.764 --> 0:16:11.444 a billionaire a trillionaire before, you also lose this bet. 0:16:11.524 --> 0:16:12.124 Is that correct? 0:16:12.564 --> 0:16:14.524 Yes, because he's the first trillionaire. 0:16:14.724 --> 0:16:20.284 Okay, oh yeah. For Look, the long term average for 0:16:20.484 --> 0:16:22.844 super rich guys that they increase in net worth by 0:16:24.364 --> 0:16:26.964 probably around twenty percent per year, which is very very 0:16:26.964 --> 0:16:30.004 good relative to how most Americans do. But take take 0:16:30.044 --> 0:16:32.244 four to fifty whatever is now and add twenty percent, 0:16:32.284 --> 0:16:34.564 and you're not that close. There's a little bit of 0:16:34.564 --> 0:16:37.244 a thing before about like to the extent that like 0:16:37.404 --> 0:16:41.244 assets that Elon owns have been priced up, that's kind 0:16:41.244 --> 0:16:43.404 of priced in to some extent already. I tend to 0:16:43.444 --> 0:16:46.204 agree that, Like, I mean, you see these periodic reports 0:16:46.964 --> 0:16:50.004 that Trump was like Elon's getting a little carried away here, 0:16:50.124 --> 0:16:52.684 and yeah, I think this is a a It's not 0:16:52.724 --> 0:16:58.404 impossible to imagine, but I'd say, like, I think there's 0:16:58.444 --> 0:17:05.164 maybe a one in five chants and then tweet that 0:17:06.004 --> 0:17:09.884 twenty percent down to like eighteen because now and then 0:17:09.884 --> 0:17:12.124 someone else gets there first, like in the AI scenario 0:17:12.164 --> 0:17:13.204 where this is the year where you have like a 0:17:13.204 --> 0:17:16.164 big AI boom, then like the Nvidia people and other 0:17:16.164 --> 0:17:18.964 people that are a bit more like directly tied to 0:17:19.804 --> 0:17:21.604 AI might benefit first. Right. 0:17:23.444 --> 0:17:26.404 But yeah, okay, so we agree on this one as. 0:17:26.324 --> 0:17:33.564 Well, and we'll be right back after this break. 0:17:42.324 --> 0:17:44.564 What's up next? Let's do some poker. 0:17:44.524 --> 0:17:49.164 Poker over under on Nate and Maria's net tournament winnings 0:17:49.204 --> 0:17:52.404 for the year, i e. Winnings minus buy in. Let's 0:17:52.404 --> 0:17:56.724 assume this is all live tournaments, right, so we'll ignore 0:17:56.764 --> 0:18:01.604 any any sketchy uh online stuff that we might or 0:18:01.684 --> 0:18:05.324 might not do. So it's trackable in theory. 0:18:05.724 --> 0:18:10.364 It's hard. You know, tournaments are so incredibly it's such 0:18:10.404 --> 0:18:14.764 a volatile thing, right, and there's so much variance there 0:18:15.084 --> 0:18:17.844 that it's really really difficult to have predictions. I mean, 0:18:17.884 --> 0:18:20.444 I've had years where I've been down a lot, and 0:18:20.484 --> 0:18:22.724 I've had years where I've been up a lot, And 0:18:24.004 --> 0:18:26.324 you know, I would like to have a nice optimistic 0:18:26.404 --> 0:18:30.724 prediction that but and I think you have to. If 0:18:30.724 --> 0:18:34.364 you're a tournament player, you have to be optimistic. It's 0:18:34.444 --> 0:18:37.404 kind of like an entrepreneur. You realize that, you know, 0:18:37.444 --> 0:18:39.804 most people lose money, but in order to do it, 0:18:39.844 --> 0:18:41.604 you have to believe that you're one of the few 0:18:41.644 --> 0:18:44.644 that's going to succeed. So I think you kind of 0:18:44.684 --> 0:18:47.124 have to have that mindset I'm in. 0:18:47.164 --> 0:18:52.084 Look in the book, I did some simulations for a 0:18:52.084 --> 0:18:58.484 assuming a very good tournament player, maybe if we're being honest, 0:18:58.524 --> 0:19:00.564 probably not too far from where you and I, Maria, 0:19:00.564 --> 0:19:02.324 but maybe a little bit better in that book then, 0:19:02.524 --> 0:19:05.924 you know, but in that vicinity, right, and if this 0:19:06.044 --> 0:19:10.724 player PENELOPEA I named her, if she plays two hundred bullets, 0:19:11.604 --> 0:19:14.204 two hundred entries, that is bullets. We don't want to 0:19:14.244 --> 0:19:16.924 use violent imagery, but that's what pokers say. When you 0:19:16.924 --> 0:19:20.604 buy into a tournament, you fire a bullet. She buys 0:19:20.644 --> 0:19:23.484 into two hundred bullets per year in live poker tournaments 0:19:23.684 --> 0:19:25.244 with a schedule that probably looks a lot like what 0:19:25.284 --> 0:19:27.324 you are. I might play Maria the mix of tournaments, 0:19:29.284 --> 0:19:34.644 and she loses money about forty to forty five percent 0:19:34.644 --> 0:19:37.884 of the time out of two hundred entries. I might 0:19:37.884 --> 0:19:40.404 play fifty entries this year. You might play more. You 0:19:40.484 --> 0:19:42.044 might be I don't know where are you seventy five, 0:19:42.044 --> 0:19:45.764 one hundred or something like. Well, probably the brutal truth 0:19:46.684 --> 0:19:49.204 is that the odds are that we will have a 0:19:49.204 --> 0:19:51.964 losing year, or at least I will with fifty entries. 0:19:52.164 --> 0:19:54.084 It's hard to win money with fifty entries. Sometimes you 0:19:54.124 --> 0:19:56.724 win a lot of money, but like probably sixty percent 0:19:56.764 --> 0:19:58.284 of the time, you wind up with a losing year 0:19:58.324 --> 0:20:01.084 with that, with that volume, even with with with an edge, 0:20:01.644 --> 0:20:04.164 I assume poker tournaments, we remain pretty soft. But like, so, yeah, 0:20:04.164 --> 0:20:07.564 probably my over under is like negative ten thousands. Okay, 0:20:07.604 --> 0:20:08.444 I won't speak for you. 0:20:08.524 --> 0:20:12.724 All right, I'm gonna I'm gonna be optimistic, but I'll 0:20:12.764 --> 0:20:17.444 be I'll be cautiously optimistic. We'll stay in the five 0:20:17.484 --> 0:20:21.324 figures instead of six figures. So so I'll say that, uh, 0:20:21.764 --> 0:20:25.364 I predict my net tournament winnings this year to be 0:20:26.524 --> 0:20:31.044 forty five thousand, twenty twenty five. I don't know where 0:20:31.084 --> 0:20:34.924 that number is coming from. It's it's trying, it's tempering expectations, 0:20:35.004 --> 0:20:40.524 but trying to hope for the best. The thing is, 0:20:40.564 --> 0:20:41.164 it's it's. 0:20:41.004 --> 0:20:43.684 Actually kind of hard to have the forty five thousand plus. 0:20:43.684 --> 0:20:46.604 It's like like you kind of have like you almost 0:20:46.604 --> 0:20:49.684 want to say like negative fifty thousand, or like I 0:20:49.724 --> 0:20:52.164 think something in three hundred k right or five, you 0:20:52.164 --> 0:20:54.244 know what I mean, because that's kind of where the distribution. 0:20:54.404 --> 0:20:57.244 It's true, it's true, but you know, like thinking of 0:20:57.284 --> 0:21:01.724 this past year, you know, I had a horrific World series, 0:21:02.364 --> 0:21:03.924 but I had a really good year at the end. 0:21:04.004 --> 0:21:06.484 But I had you know, I had some really big scores, 0:21:06.524 --> 0:21:08.764 but because my world series was so bad, I was, 0:21:09.004 --> 0:21:11.924 you know, down over one hundred thousand dollars. Like that 0:21:12.124 --> 0:21:16.204 really detracted from from the big scores. So so at 0:21:16.244 --> 0:21:19.444 the end I was positive, but it could have, you know, 0:21:19.444 --> 0:21:21.564 it could have very easily. It took a number of 0:21:21.644 --> 0:21:26.284 big scores to get me to the positive part, right, So. 0:21:25.764 --> 0:21:28.204 So what's on the what's on the schedule, even what's 0:21:28.244 --> 0:21:30.164 on this because fucking France I was gonna go. 0:21:30.204 --> 0:21:34.044 To I know, I know, it's very sad. It's very sad. 0:21:34.124 --> 0:21:36.804 EPT Paris, which was supposed to be the first European 0:21:36.844 --> 0:21:40.964 Poker Tour stop. Poker Stars my sponsor, I'm an ambassador. 0:21:41.204 --> 0:21:45.724 You know, we've got We've got lots of descibers this show. Unfortunately, 0:21:45.764 --> 0:21:48.564 because of French regulations that got that got canceled. They're 0:21:48.604 --> 0:21:51.204 trying to reschedule it. I'm really hoping that it will 0:21:51.204 --> 0:21:53.764 be rescheduled. But right now, the first EPT stop is 0:21:53.764 --> 0:21:56.364 going to be Monte Carlo. That's going to be in April. 0:21:56.444 --> 0:21:58.324