1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:28,764 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:28,804 --> 00:00:31,524 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 3 00:00:31,244 --> 00:00:32,404 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. 4 00:00:33,124 --> 00:00:35,564 Speaker 1: Nate Today is going to be a fun show. You're 5 00:00:35,604 --> 00:00:39,564 Speaker 1: taping from Tokyo, I'm taping from New York, so from 6 00:00:39,644 --> 00:00:43,044 Speaker 1: opposite sides of the world. We'll be talking about our 7 00:00:43,084 --> 00:00:46,244 Speaker 1: predictions for twenty twenty five on a whole number of things, 8 00:00:46,484 --> 00:00:49,004 Speaker 1: a whole bunch of topics, from you know, economics and 9 00:00:49,044 --> 00:00:53,564 Speaker 1: politics to pop culture and lots of things in between, sports, 10 00:00:53,884 --> 00:00:57,124 Speaker 1: fashion choices. I think you'll enjoy this one. Let's get 11 00:00:57,124 --> 00:00:57,404 Speaker 1: into it. 12 00:00:57,484 --> 00:01:02,284 Speaker 2: Nate, Happy twenty twenty five. 13 00:01:02,324 --> 00:01:07,804 Speaker 1: Everybody Happy twenty twenty five. It's a quarter thing century. 14 00:01:08,124 --> 00:01:12,124 Speaker 1: It's a good boy, all right. Yeah, that's insane. God, 15 00:01:12,484 --> 00:01:17,324 Speaker 1: what were you doing on New Year's two thousand? On 16 00:01:17,524 --> 00:01:20,444 Speaker 1: New Year's two thousand, Oh my god, I was still 17 00:01:20,604 --> 00:01:27,044 Speaker 1: in high school, I was God, yeah, I was in 18 00:01:27,124 --> 00:01:30,244 Speaker 1: high school. So I was with my family. Where were 19 00:01:30,284 --> 00:01:31,364 Speaker 1: you twenty five years ago? 20 00:01:32,724 --> 00:01:36,324 Speaker 2: I was in on a beach in Key West, Florida, nice, 21 00:01:36,644 --> 00:01:42,284 Speaker 2: doing various substances that may or may not have been 22 00:01:42,364 --> 00:01:44,644 Speaker 2: legal in the state of Florida. And we'll leave it 23 00:01:44,684 --> 00:01:44,964 Speaker 2: at that. 24 00:01:45,084 --> 00:01:47,484 Speaker 1: Sounds good. I think there's I think you're good on 25 00:01:47,524 --> 00:01:53,764 Speaker 1: the statute of limitations. Okay, okay, all right, so let's 26 00:01:53,764 --> 00:01:56,404 Speaker 1: get into it. So we have a bunch of different 27 00:01:56,444 --> 00:02:02,164 Speaker 1: topics ranging from you know, crypto to pop culture. Do 28 00:02:02,204 --> 00:02:04,084 Speaker 1: you want to start it off with kind of one 29 00:02:04,084 --> 00:02:05,964 Speaker 1: of the big topics that we've talked about on the 30 00:02:06,004 --> 00:02:10,444 Speaker 1: show multiple times, which is bitcoin. What do you think 31 00:02:10,524 --> 00:02:14,724 Speaker 1: nate will be the highest price that bitcoin will reach 32 00:02:14,804 --> 00:02:16,324 Speaker 1: this year? And what do you think will be the 33 00:02:16,364 --> 00:02:20,044 Speaker 1: lowest price bitcoin will reach? If you want, I can 34 00:02:20,044 --> 00:02:24,524 Speaker 1: start a soft way. So we're looking at polymarket, where 35 00:02:24,524 --> 00:02:28,084 Speaker 1: I'm an advisor says that the over. 36 00:02:28,004 --> 00:02:32,924 Speaker 2: Under mark is roughly one twenty k by market thirty first. 37 00:02:33,164 --> 00:02:35,764 Speaker 1: That's not the end of the year, yeah, and any. 38 00:02:35,604 --> 00:02:38,884 Speaker 2: K on the lowest and by March thirty first. You know, look, 39 00:02:38,964 --> 00:02:41,204 Speaker 2: I mean, if you had to like, this is a 40 00:02:41,244 --> 00:02:43,044 Speaker 2: really hard question, it is a really hard question. 41 00:02:43,124 --> 00:02:45,684 Speaker 1: Yeah. 42 00:02:46,124 --> 00:02:50,324 Speaker 2: Yeah, let me say the high is the high is 43 00:02:50,404 --> 00:02:53,804 Speaker 2: one forty is my over under, and the low is 44 00:02:55,804 --> 00:03:01,004 Speaker 2: sixty right, Okay, all right, that's I'm just doubling. I'm 45 00:03:01,044 --> 00:03:05,004 Speaker 2: just doubling polymarket. I trust that people in poly market 46 00:03:05,164 --> 00:03:07,044 Speaker 2: a lot of crypto friendly types there. I trust that 47 00:03:07,124 --> 00:03:09,284 Speaker 2: the market is smarter than I am, and I'm just 48 00:03:09,444 --> 00:03:12,964 Speaker 2: doubling the range. Sure, So yeah, March thirty first through 49 00:03:13,004 --> 00:03:13,564 Speaker 2: the end of the year. 50 00:03:13,604 --> 00:03:16,564 Speaker 1: Okay, that's pretty smart. I am going to go higher 51 00:03:16,644 --> 00:03:21,164 Speaker 1: than you. I am going to say one eighty high 52 00:03:21,364 --> 00:03:24,524 Speaker 1: for twenty twenty five. So I think that there are 53 00:03:24,524 --> 00:03:26,964 Speaker 1: a lot of people, a lot of smart crypto people 54 00:03:26,964 --> 00:03:28,804 Speaker 1: who think it will hit two hundred and might even 55 00:03:28,844 --> 00:03:30,564 Speaker 1: go over two hundred. I don't think it will go 56 00:03:30,644 --> 00:03:33,164 Speaker 1: that high, but I'm going to be bullish and I'm 57 00:03:33,164 --> 00:03:36,924 Speaker 1: going to say one eighty. And on the low side, 58 00:03:37,124 --> 00:03:40,244 Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I will say seventy. I will say 59 00:03:40,284 --> 00:03:41,404 Speaker 1: seventy as the low. 60 00:03:41,724 --> 00:03:43,924 Speaker 2: So are you buying I mean that sounds pretty asymmetric 61 00:03:43,964 --> 00:03:46,924 Speaker 2: where you should be buying bio. Are you buying bitcoin? 62 00:03:47,644 --> 00:03:52,164 Speaker 1: I am not currently buying bitcoin, but I think that 63 00:03:52,604 --> 00:03:56,124 Speaker 1: bitcoin is actually something that potentially I should start buying. 64 00:03:56,364 --> 00:04:00,564 Speaker 1: Especially as Donald Trump comes into office. We know that 65 00:04:00,724 --> 00:04:04,404 Speaker 1: he hasn't necessarily delivered on, you know, things that he's 66 00:04:04,444 --> 00:04:07,404 Speaker 1: promised in the past, but so far there are positive 67 00:04:07,444 --> 00:04:10,684 Speaker 1: signs that he is going to be pretty pro crypto, 68 00:04:11,004 --> 00:04:14,324 Speaker 1: and if all of those things come to pass. You know, normally, 69 00:04:14,364 --> 00:04:16,364 Speaker 1: the way that you look at markets is, oh, you know, 70 00:04:16,404 --> 00:04:18,684 Speaker 1: smart people have already priced this in, right, So the 71 00:04:18,684 --> 00:04:22,644 Speaker 1: price of bitcoin already reflects people being optimistic about Donald 72 00:04:22,644 --> 00:04:24,924 Speaker 1: Trump and what he's going to do and his policies. 73 00:04:25,404 --> 00:04:28,884 Speaker 1: But I think that with crypto it doesn't necessarily work 74 00:04:28,924 --> 00:04:31,284 Speaker 1: that way, and the market doesn't price things in quite 75 00:04:31,284 --> 00:04:33,724 Speaker 1: the same way as the stock market. I would say 76 00:04:33,724 --> 00:04:36,684 Speaker 1: that it's less efficient in some ways and much more volatile, right. 77 00:04:36,724 --> 00:04:40,924 Speaker 1: We see, you can see in the cryptocurrency world, you 78 00:04:40,924 --> 00:04:43,204 Speaker 1: can see something go up five hundred percent, right, That 79 00:04:43,324 --> 00:04:46,644 Speaker 1: just does not happen on the regular stock market. So 80 00:04:46,644 --> 00:04:49,644 Speaker 1: so I would say that there's the upside is asymmetric, 81 00:04:49,764 --> 00:04:50,164 Speaker 1: right now. 82 00:04:51,204 --> 00:04:53,884 Speaker 2: See, I might argue that crypto is almost my definition 83 00:04:54,044 --> 00:04:58,684 Speaker 2: ary vibe spased, right, Yeah, and it may over anticipate, 84 00:04:59,284 --> 00:05:01,564 Speaker 2: it may overly be pricing it in, you know what 85 00:05:01,604 --> 00:05:01,924 Speaker 2: I mean. 86 00:05:03,204 --> 00:05:05,444 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's also very possible. 87 00:05:06,164 --> 00:05:07,724 Speaker 2: And in general I'm wonder if there's like a little 88 00:05:07,724 --> 00:05:11,164 Speaker 2: bit of irrational zoo Brenth. I mean, President's is hard, right, 89 00:05:12,684 --> 00:05:16,604 Speaker 2: He's inheriting a pretty unhappy electorate. He will be surrounded 90 00:05:16,604 --> 00:05:19,364 Speaker 2: by a mix of people, some of them are confident 91 00:05:19,364 --> 00:05:21,844 Speaker 2: in many of whom aren't. He has very narrow majority 92 00:05:21,964 --> 00:05:27,324 Speaker 2: in the House, right, Yeah, he's old. He and Eli 93 00:05:27,404 --> 00:05:30,444 Speaker 2: will probably have a falling out at some point. B 94 00:05:30,444 --> 00:05:33,524 Speaker 2: A BFFs. I don't know. I think there's kind of 95 00:05:33,564 --> 00:05:39,924 Speaker 2: a I think the average Trump new convert enthusiast crypto 96 00:05:40,084 --> 00:05:45,444 Speaker 2: enthusiast is a little high on fumes right now. And 97 00:05:46,324 --> 00:05:50,124 Speaker 2: I remember, you know, kind of when uh, whenever there's 98 00:05:50,204 --> 00:05:52,284 Speaker 2: new president, when there's a switch of parties, right, like 99 00:05:52,364 --> 00:05:56,204 Speaker 2: people people don't understand how difficult it starts to look 100 00:05:56,804 --> 00:06:00,404 Speaker 2: three to six months in right, you're doing your one 101 00:06:00,484 --> 00:06:03,084 Speaker 2: hundred days stuff, although it's harder now than it used 102 00:06:03,084 --> 00:06:05,284 Speaker 2: to be. But Trump will do some executive orders. We'll 103 00:06:05,284 --> 00:06:07,164 Speaker 2: talk about that in a bit, and then I know, 104 00:06:07,204 --> 00:06:12,564 Speaker 2: I think there's a short term bare case on Trump 105 00:06:12,644 --> 00:06:14,844 Speaker 2: I think is probably worthwhile. And how that turns it 106 00:06:14,884 --> 00:06:17,884 Speaker 2: to the crypto is not linear entirely. But like, it's 107 00:06:17,884 --> 00:06:19,364 Speaker 2: hard to be president, that's all I'm saying. 108 00:06:19,364 --> 00:06:23,204 Speaker 1: I totally agree with that. But because we're looking at 109 00:06:23,284 --> 00:06:27,364 Speaker 1: by the you know, this year in total, right, we're 110 00:06:27,404 --> 00:06:29,244 Speaker 1: not actually doing a prediction of where it's going to 111 00:06:29,244 --> 00:06:31,004 Speaker 1: be next month or where it's going to end up. 112 00:06:31,004 --> 00:06:33,004 Speaker 1: We're just saying, like, what is the high for twenty 113 00:06:33,044 --> 00:06:35,964 Speaker 1: twenty five? And I actually think that the irrational exuberance 114 00:06:36,004 --> 00:06:40,044 Speaker 1: will get us to that high at some point, and 115 00:06:40,084 --> 00:06:43,324 Speaker 1: then it might crash right precipitously. And the reason I'm 116 00:06:43,364 --> 00:06:45,284 Speaker 1: not buying bitcoin, by the way, is that I'm not 117 00:06:45,364 --> 00:06:48,964 Speaker 1: confident enough in my ability to predict, you know, when 118 00:06:49,004 --> 00:06:51,724 Speaker 1: those crashes will come and when those changes and sentiment 119 00:06:51,764 --> 00:06:53,844 Speaker 1: will come. But I do think we're going to see 120 00:06:53,884 --> 00:06:57,684 Speaker 1: something like that. So I think that there's a lot 121 00:06:57,684 --> 00:07:00,204 Speaker 1: of a lot of things to be said for pre caution, 122 00:07:00,364 --> 00:07:03,164 Speaker 1: but also for you know, let's put some of those 123 00:07:03,164 --> 00:07:08,044 Speaker 1: irrationally exuberant predictions in there. Let's switch gears a little bit, 124 00:07:08,084 --> 00:07:10,324 Speaker 1: sort of sort of because this is related to Trump. 125 00:07:10,684 --> 00:07:14,204 Speaker 1: So how about a prediction about Trump's We've talked about 126 00:07:14,204 --> 00:07:16,964 Speaker 1: the cabinet right and about his nominees. Do you have 127 00:07:17,164 --> 00:07:20,844 Speaker 1: a prediction for how many cabinet nominees and this is 128 00:07:20,844 --> 00:07:23,484 Speaker 1: starting now, so Gates does not count, will either be 129 00:07:23,564 --> 00:07:28,124 Speaker 1: rejected or withdraw No Gates. Yeah, let's so gate Gates 130 00:07:28,164 --> 00:07:30,644 Speaker 1: does not count because that has already happened. So starting now, 131 00:07:31,684 --> 00:07:32,884 Speaker 1: let's bench tracker with poly Market. 132 00:07:32,964 --> 00:07:34,884 Speaker 2: Poly Market says Pete haig Seth is an eighty six 133 00:07:34,924 --> 00:07:38,844 Speaker 2: percent chance of being confirmed, Tulsa Gabbard seventy five percent, 134 00:07:38,924 --> 00:07:42,644 Speaker 2: Cash Hotel eighty nine percent, RFK Junior eighty five percent, 135 00:07:42,884 --> 00:07:46,444 Speaker 2: and then there are some other people that probably nobody 136 00:07:46,484 --> 00:07:49,924 Speaker 2: cares about. Right, So let me do math fifteen twenty five, 137 00:07:51,164 --> 00:07:55,084 Speaker 2: fifty sixty and then a little pocket change we get. 138 00:07:55,124 --> 00:07:59,284 Speaker 2: So poly Market says that the best bet is probably 139 00:07:59,404 --> 00:08:06,964 Speaker 2: one or zero. I'll go with zero. I think that 140 00:08:07,044 --> 00:08:10,364 Speaker 2: like we saw the scalp with Mac, I think if 141 00:08:10,364 --> 00:08:12,564 Speaker 2: you're going to have somebody else that it would have 142 00:08:12,644 --> 00:08:16,004 Speaker 2: happened sooner in this kind of pre because the further 143 00:08:16,084 --> 00:08:19,564 Speaker 2: you go, the more embarrassing to Trump, and most Republicans 144 00:08:19,604 --> 00:08:22,364 Speaker 2: in the Senate actually don't want to embarrass Trump. And so, 145 00:08:22,484 --> 00:08:24,684 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, the market says that Gabbard is 146 00:08:24,684 --> 00:08:28,644 Speaker 2: the most likely wild card, and but but I think 147 00:08:28,644 --> 00:08:32,484 Speaker 2: they've mostly survived. I mean out they'll survive the vetting 148 00:08:32,564 --> 00:08:36,084 Speaker 2: making them look good, right, But there's no objective standard here, right, 149 00:08:36,124 --> 00:08:38,404 Speaker 2: it's do you have fifty votes in the Senate? And 150 00:08:38,484 --> 00:08:40,764 Speaker 2: I think I think they've probably survived it in a way. 151 00:08:40,844 --> 00:08:43,564 Speaker 2: Mack age students. So I'll go with zero. I'll go 152 00:08:43,644 --> 00:08:44,724 Speaker 2: he'll bet one thousand. 153 00:08:45,284 --> 00:08:47,364 Speaker 1: The rest of the way, I actually agree with you, 154 00:08:47,444 --> 00:08:49,444 Speaker 1: I was going to say zero. I don't think that 155 00:08:49,484 --> 00:08:51,724 Speaker 1: anyone's going to withdraw, and I don't think anyone is 156 00:08:51,764 --> 00:08:53,684 Speaker 1: going to be rejected. I think we're going to see 157 00:08:53,684 --> 00:08:55,844 Speaker 1: the falls light confirmed. I think that people will tow 158 00:08:55,884 --> 00:08:58,044 Speaker 1: party lines, and I think that we're going to see that. 159 00:08:58,204 --> 00:09:00,244 Speaker 1: We're going to see everyone sail through. I don't even 160 00:09:00,284 --> 00:09:02,204 Speaker 1: think it's going to be particularly close. 161 00:09:03,564 --> 00:09:09,404 Speaker 2: Next question, you are eluding this, Maria, number of press 162 00:09:09,484 --> 00:09:12,284 Speaker 2: secretaries in twenty twenty five. 163 00:09:12,844 --> 00:09:15,884 Speaker 1: I am going to say that in twenty twenty five 164 00:09:16,244 --> 00:09:18,964 Speaker 1: he is going to have two. That's going to be 165 00:09:19,004 --> 00:09:19,564 Speaker 1: my prediction. 166 00:09:20,164 --> 00:09:23,924 Speaker 2: Maria, we're agreeing too much here. I'm two seems like 167 00:09:23,924 --> 00:09:27,684 Speaker 2: the rational modal number. It's a fucking hard job, it is. 168 00:09:28,564 --> 00:09:31,364 Speaker 2: I mean, I kind of feel like press secretaries of 169 00:09:31,364 --> 00:09:33,804 Speaker 2: the one people should be allowed to lie, you know 170 00:09:33,844 --> 00:09:35,964 Speaker 2: what I mean, because you can't really do the job 171 00:09:36,004 --> 00:09:36,524 Speaker 2: without lying. 172 00:09:36,724 --> 00:09:38,084 Speaker 1: Well, I don't think. I mean, I think there's a 173 00:09:38,124 --> 00:09:43,844 Speaker 1: difference and between lying and spinning, and there is, so 174 00:09:44,644 --> 00:09:47,164 Speaker 1: I do. I'm not trying to play semantics here, right, 175 00:09:47,484 --> 00:09:50,204 Speaker 1: So there's lying where like you're just like flat out 176 00:09:50,924 --> 00:09:53,724 Speaker 1: saying something that you know is not true. And then 177 00:09:53,964 --> 00:09:58,604 Speaker 1: there are like misrepresentations, which in some ways is worse 178 00:09:58,724 --> 00:10:01,084 Speaker 1: right because it's harder to be like you lied. You 179 00:10:01,124 --> 00:10:03,164 Speaker 1: can be like, well, no, like if you parse the 180 00:10:03,284 --> 00:10:07,684 Speaker 1: sentence semantically, I didn't. Technically, I did not lie. And 181 00:10:07,724 --> 00:10:11,004 Speaker 1: I think that that's more what press secretaries do. They're 182 00:10:11,044 --> 00:10:13,564 Speaker 1: more spin doctory than they are. 183 00:10:13,964 --> 00:10:16,684 Speaker 2: It's like a poker player, you know. Some poppe plays 184 00:10:16,724 --> 00:10:20,684 Speaker 2: will not like actually lie about the contents of their hand. Right. 185 00:10:21,564 --> 00:10:23,164 Speaker 2: You'll be like, do you have a pucket kings? And 186 00:10:23,204 --> 00:10:25,204 Speaker 2: they'll be like, well, it's a big pair or something, 187 00:10:25,204 --> 00:10:28,044 Speaker 2: you know what I mean. Yeah, I just lie about 188 00:10:28,044 --> 00:10:30,204 Speaker 2: the kindents of my hand all the fucking time. In poker, 189 00:10:30,244 --> 00:10:31,924 Speaker 2: it's like allowed. 190 00:10:31,964 --> 00:10:35,324 Speaker 1: It is allowed, It is allowed. I don't do it there, No, 191 00:10:35,564 --> 00:10:38,124 Speaker 1: I don't do it, but but it is absolutely allowed, 192 00:10:38,164 --> 00:10:40,924 Speaker 1: and I totally don't blame you for doing it. The 193 00:10:41,004 --> 00:10:42,764 Speaker 1: funniest thing, by the way, can we just do like 194 00:10:42,804 --> 00:10:46,604 Speaker 1: a poker aside is when people lie about their hand 195 00:10:46,724 --> 00:10:50,124 Speaker 1: on stream, on televised stream when their cards are shown, 196 00:10:50,564 --> 00:10:53,404 Speaker 1: and it will become very very clear that they're lying. 197 00:10:54,244 --> 00:10:57,684 Speaker 1: Scott sever does this all the time, and he'll just 198 00:10:57,724 --> 00:11:00,924 Speaker 1: like with a straight face like be like fold you 199 00:11:00,924 --> 00:11:03,084 Speaker 1: know I've got it, or like he'll he'll or just 200 00:11:03,124 --> 00:11:05,644 Speaker 1: like completely lie what hand he has and like you 201 00:11:05,684 --> 00:11:08,244 Speaker 1: can see he's lying and he just doesn't care. So 202 00:11:08,724 --> 00:11:11,404 Speaker 1: I think that I think that that is definitely very accepted. 203 00:11:11,804 --> 00:11:14,924 Speaker 1: I am more of the I don't like telling people, 204 00:11:15,124 --> 00:11:17,764 Speaker 1: you know, what I had and they if they don't 205 00:11:17,884 --> 00:11:21,044 Speaker 1: take that for an answer, I'll just say yes, right, Sullivan, 206 00:11:21,524 --> 00:11:22,324 Speaker 1: did you have Kings? 207 00:11:22,404 --> 00:11:22,564 Speaker 2: Yes? 208 00:11:22,604 --> 00:11:25,044 Speaker 1: Did you have Queen's Yes? Did you have JACKX Yes? 209 00:11:25,324 --> 00:11:26,124 Speaker 1: Did you have Ace King? 210 00:11:26,244 --> 00:11:26,484 Speaker 2: Yes? 211 00:11:26,604 --> 00:11:29,724 Speaker 1: Like I will, and if you start asking me more 212 00:11:29,764 --> 00:11:31,644 Speaker 1: than one hand, you will realize that I'm just saying 213 00:11:31,724 --> 00:11:34,404 Speaker 1: yes to everything. So I'll just do something like that, 214 00:11:35,204 --> 00:11:38,444 Speaker 1: which you know will will normally shut people up. But 215 00:11:38,524 --> 00:11:40,884 Speaker 1: I don't like to tell people what I have, as 216 00:11:40,884 --> 00:11:42,604 Speaker 1: we've talked about before on the show, and I think 217 00:11:42,604 --> 00:11:46,324 Speaker 1: this is an important point outside of poker. Information equals power. 218 00:11:46,444 --> 00:11:49,684 Speaker 1: Do not give people information when you don't have to, right, 219 00:11:50,044 --> 00:11:53,684 Speaker 1: have them know as little as possible about your intentions, 220 00:11:53,684 --> 00:11:57,404 Speaker 1: how you play everything else. So yeah, two press secretaries. 221 00:11:57,724 --> 00:12:00,564 Speaker 1: First ones never hold on. I mean, Trump just goes 222 00:12:00,604 --> 00:12:03,244 Speaker 1: through press secretaries like none other. I wouldn't even be 223 00:12:03,324 --> 00:12:05,164 Speaker 1: surprised to see three. But I think two is the 224 00:12:05,604 --> 00:12:09,044 Speaker 1: right prediction. All right, we've got one more Trumps? What 225 00:12:09,124 --> 00:12:11,444 Speaker 1: we have more than one? Trump has said he will 226 00:12:11,444 --> 00:12:15,084 Speaker 1: declare a national emergency on his first day in office 227 00:12:15,124 --> 00:12:18,644 Speaker 1: to begin mass deportations. Do you think he will do 228 00:12:18,684 --> 00:12:20,924 Speaker 1: this on January twentieth? Is there going to be a 229 00:12:21,004 --> 00:12:22,364 Speaker 1: national emergency declaration? 230 00:12:24,204 --> 00:12:27,724 Speaker 2: Again? There is a market to calibrate to polymarket says 231 00:12:27,764 --> 00:12:31,684 Speaker 2: eighty percent chance on day one he does issue at action. 232 00:12:31,604 --> 00:12:32,924 Speaker 1: I have that seems high. 233 00:12:33,004 --> 00:12:38,084 Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, look, I mean one of the things you 234 00:12:38,284 --> 00:12:40,524 Speaker 2: can say Trump had a mandate to be elected on 235 00:12:40,684 --> 00:12:44,844 Speaker 2: was immigration, right, and he clearly cares a lot about that. 236 00:12:44,844 --> 00:12:46,484 Speaker 2: I mean, it's kind of core to his brand. I 237 00:12:46,484 --> 00:12:50,164 Speaker 2: think it's within the purview of the one House issue 238 00:12:50,164 --> 00:12:54,204 Speaker 2: executive action. So I'm going to say, yes, right, I 239 00:12:54,244 --> 00:12:56,604 Speaker 2: have no reason to like, like, this is kind of 240 00:12:56,644 --> 00:12:58,564 Speaker 2: what you promised. This is what he promised to do 241 00:12:59,244 --> 00:13:00,924 Speaker 2: if you voted for Trump. This is what you were 242 00:13:00,924 --> 00:13:02,524 Speaker 2: supposed to get, and I think he's going to do it. 243 00:13:04,444 --> 00:13:08,844 Speaker 1: I mean, I think you're probably right, but I'm just 244 00:13:08,884 --> 00:13:12,004 Speaker 1: gonna get of a completely. So this is the opposite 245 00:13:12,044 --> 00:13:13,764 Speaker 1: of what we do here on Risky Business, which has 246 00:13:13,924 --> 00:13:16,724 Speaker 1: use our rational minds to do predictions. I'm just gonna 247 00:13:16,884 --> 00:13:19,244 Speaker 1: say he won't do it because I don't want him to. 248 00:13:19,604 --> 00:13:23,284 Speaker 1: That is not how you make decisions. So the rational answers, yes, 249 00:13:23,364 --> 00:13:26,524 Speaker 1: I think there will be a national emergency. My emotional 250 00:13:26,564 --> 00:13:30,524 Speaker 1: answer is I hope there isn't and I hope that 251 00:13:30,564 --> 00:13:34,124 Speaker 1: there are no mass deportations. But you're absolutely right that 252 00:13:34,204 --> 00:13:37,164 Speaker 1: this is something that people that people you know did 253 00:13:37,204 --> 00:13:37,684 Speaker 1: vote for. 254 00:13:38,404 --> 00:13:41,484 Speaker 2: And so I mean if the reason why I think 255 00:13:42,084 --> 00:13:43,764 Speaker 2: you want to take the yes and bet is like 256 00:13:44,284 --> 00:13:48,364 Speaker 2: ify for whatever reason, is influenced by uh, I mean, 257 00:13:48,444 --> 00:13:51,044 Speaker 2: Silicon Valley doesn't care as much about the illegal immigration, 258 00:13:51,084 --> 00:13:54,084 Speaker 2: but if he's influenced to like take a softer line, 259 00:13:54,644 --> 00:13:56,604 Speaker 2: I think he would still issue an executive order of 260 00:13:56,684 --> 00:13:58,644 Speaker 2: some kind. It would and it would have fewer teeth 261 00:13:59,164 --> 00:14:00,844 Speaker 2: or they wouldn't fight for it as much in the 262 00:14:00,884 --> 00:14:03,804 Speaker 2: courts or right. I think he kind of has to 263 00:14:03,844 --> 00:14:08,204 Speaker 2: like do this to kind of maintain face. What if 264 00:14:08,204 --> 00:14:10,684 Speaker 2: he gets in and he's like, it's all long con 265 00:14:11,084 --> 00:14:13,244 Speaker 2: it's all long coin of been a Democratic all time, 266 00:14:13,324 --> 00:14:16,204 Speaker 2: including the first term. I know what place that. 267 00:14:16,244 --> 00:14:18,964 Speaker 1: Was that was not Trump, I'm not sure who that was. 268 00:14:19,564 --> 00:14:25,884 Speaker 2: Adam Sandler never, that was embarrassing, most embarrassing when williams. Hey, 269 00:14:25,924 --> 00:14:29,844 Speaker 2: let's move on the next question. Will Elon Musk become 270 00:14:29,924 --> 00:14:35,524 Speaker 2: the world's first trillionaire in twenty twenty five. His current 271 00:14:35,644 --> 00:14:38,284 Speaker 2: net worth, according to Bloomberg, is four hundred and twenty 272 00:14:38,324 --> 00:14:42,444 Speaker 2: six billion with a B dollars. 273 00:14:42,804 --> 00:14:45,404 Speaker 1: I say no, I say he will not become a 274 00:14:45,444 --> 00:14:51,044 Speaker 1: trillionaire in twenty twenty five. And I say this because 275 00:14:52,084 --> 00:14:55,484 Speaker 1: Tesla has had disappointing sales this year. I realized that 276 00:14:55,484 --> 00:14:58,404 Speaker 1: that's only one small part of his net worth, but 277 00:14:59,244 --> 00:15:01,484 Speaker 1: you know it's it's an important one. And I also 278 00:15:01,524 --> 00:15:03,484 Speaker 1: think that there's going to be some fallout with his 279 00:15:03,524 --> 00:15:08,284 Speaker 1: association with Trump, including a fallout with Trump at some point, 280 00:15:08,364 --> 00:15:12,404 Speaker 1: because I don't don't know of anyone, like any high 281 00:15:12,484 --> 00:15:15,964 Speaker 1: profile marriage that Trump has had that has lasted, obviously 282 00:15:16,004 --> 00:15:19,524 Speaker 1: including his actual marriages, but what I mean right now, 283 00:15:19,764 --> 00:15:23,364 Speaker 1: you know, marriage with any kind of close political confidant. Right, 284 00:15:23,404 --> 00:15:26,684 Speaker 1: he's broken up with all of them. He elevates advisors, 285 00:15:26,724 --> 00:15:29,844 Speaker 1: He's like, you know, they're BFFs. They're really close, and 286 00:15:29,884 --> 00:15:32,444 Speaker 1: then always there's you know, I don't know if it's 287 00:15:32,484 --> 00:15:34,804 Speaker 1: ego clashing or what it is, but there's always a 288 00:15:34,844 --> 00:15:37,324 Speaker 1: falling out. And I think that that's going to hurt Elon, 289 00:15:37,604 --> 00:15:40,044 Speaker 1: and I think that's going to happen in twenty twenty five. 290 00:15:40,884 --> 00:15:43,524 Speaker 1: So I don't think he's going to become poor, but 291 00:15:43,644 --> 00:15:47,404 Speaker 1: I definitely do not see him becoming a trillionaire. There's 292 00:15:47,444 --> 00:15:52,084 Speaker 1: also the AI component, and you know, I think it 293 00:15:52,124 --> 00:15:55,124 Speaker 1: does matter whether you're bullish or bearish on the financial 294 00:15:55,164 --> 00:15:57,884 Speaker 1: prospects of AI, and I don't think they're going to 295 00:15:57,924 --> 00:16:00,964 Speaker 1: figure out their cash flow finances, you know, how to 296 00:16:00,964 --> 00:16:03,164 Speaker 1: actually make money in the coming year. 297 00:16:03,964 --> 00:16:06,684 Speaker 2: What do you think, Nate, So if someone else becomes 298 00:16:06,764 --> 00:16:11,444 Speaker 2: a billionaire a trillionaire before, you also lose this bet. 299 00:16:11,524 --> 00:16:12,124 Speaker 2: Is that correct? 300 00:16:12,564 --> 00:16:14,524 Speaker 1: Yes, because he's the first trillionaire. 301 00:16:14,724 --> 00:16:20,284 Speaker 2: Okay, oh yeah. For Look, the long term average for 302 00:16:20,484 --> 00:16:22,844 Speaker 2: super rich guys that they increase in net worth by 303 00:16:24,364 --> 00:16:26,964 Speaker 2: probably around twenty percent per year, which is very very 304 00:16:26,964 --> 00:16:30,004 Speaker 2: good relative to how most Americans do. But take take 305 00:16:30,044 --> 00:16:32,244 Speaker 2: four to fifty whatever is now and add twenty percent, 306 00:16:32,284 --> 00:16:34,564 Speaker 2: and you're not that close. There's a little bit of 307 00:16:34,564 --> 00:16:37,244 Speaker 2: a thing before about like to the extent that like 308 00:16:37,404 --> 00:16:41,244 Speaker 2: assets that Elon owns have been priced up, that's kind 309 00:16:41,244 --> 00:16:43,404 Speaker 2: of priced in to some extent already. I tend to 310 00:16:43,444 --> 00:16:46,204 Speaker 2: agree that, Like, I mean, you see these periodic reports 311 00:16:46,964 --> 00:16:50,004 Speaker 2: that Trump was like Elon's getting a little carried away here, 312 00:16:50,124 --> 00:16:52,684 Speaker 2: and yeah, I think this is a a It's not 313 00:16:52,724 --> 00:16:58,404 Speaker 2: impossible to imagine, but I'd say, like, I think there's 314 00:16:58,444 --> 00:17:05,164 Speaker 2: maybe a one in five chants and then tweet that 315 00:17:06,004 --> 00:17:09,884 Speaker 2: twenty percent down to like eighteen because now and then 316 00:17:09,884 --> 00:17:12,124 Speaker 2: someone else gets there first, like in the AI scenario 317 00:17:12,164 --> 00:17:13,204 Speaker 2: where this is the year where you have like a 318 00:17:13,204 --> 00:17:16,164 Speaker 2: big AI boom, then like the Nvidia people and other 319 00:17:16,164 --> 00:17:18,964 Speaker 2: people that are a bit more like directly tied to 320 00:17:19,804 --> 00:17:21,604 Speaker 2: AI might benefit first. Right. 321 00:17:23,444 --> 00:17:26,404 Speaker 1: But yeah, okay, so we agree on this one as. 322 00:17:26,324 --> 00:17:33,564 Speaker 2: Well, and we'll be right back after this break. 323 00:17:42,324 --> 00:17:44,564 Speaker 1: What's up next? Let's do some poker. 324 00:17:44,524 --> 00:17:49,164 Speaker 2: Poker over under on Nate and Maria's net tournament winnings 325 00:17:49,204 --> 00:17:52,404 Speaker 2: for the year, i e. Winnings minus buy in. Let's 326 00:17:52,404 --> 00:17:56,724 Speaker 2: assume this is all live tournaments, right, so we'll ignore 327 00:17:56,764 --> 00:18:01,604 Speaker 2: any any sketchy uh online stuff that we might or 328 00:18:01,684 --> 00:18:05,324 Speaker 2: might not do. So it's trackable in theory. 329 00:18:05,724 --> 00:18:10,364 Speaker 1: It's hard. You know, tournaments are so incredibly it's such 330 00:18:10,404 --> 00:18:14,764 Speaker 1: a volatile thing, right, and there's so much variance there 331 00:18:15,084 --> 00:18:17,844 Speaker 1: that it's really really difficult to have predictions. I mean, 332 00:18:17,884 --> 00:18:20,444 Speaker 1: I've had years where I've been down a lot, and 333 00:18:20,484 --> 00:18:22,724 Speaker 1: I've had years where I've been up a lot, And 334 00:18:24,004 --> 00:18:26,324 Speaker 1: you know, I would like to have a nice optimistic 335 00:18:26,404 --> 00:18:30,724 Speaker 1: prediction that but and I think you have to. If 336 00:18:30,724 --> 00:18:34,364 Speaker 1: you're a tournament player, you have to be optimistic. It's 337 00:18:34,444 --> 00:18:37,404 Speaker 1: kind of like an entrepreneur. You realize that, you know, 338 00:18:37,444 --> 00:18:39,804 Speaker 1: most people lose money, but in order to do it, 339 00:18:39,844 --> 00:18:41,604 Speaker 1: you have to believe that you're one of the few 340 00:18:41,644 --> 00:18:44,644 Speaker 1: that's going to succeed. So I think you kind of 341 00:18:44,684 --> 00:18:47,124 Speaker 1: have to have that mindset I'm in. 342 00:18:47,164 --> 00:18:52,084 Speaker 2: Look in the book, I did some simulations for a 343 00:18:52,084 --> 00:18:58,484 Speaker 2: assuming a very good tournament player, maybe if we're being honest, 344 00:18:58,524 --> 00:19:00,564 Speaker 2: probably not too far from where you and I, Maria, 345 00:19:00,564 --> 00:19:02,324 Speaker 2: but maybe a little bit better in that book then, 346 00:19:02,524 --> 00:19:05,924 Speaker 2: you know, but in that vicinity, right, and if this 347 00:19:06,044 --> 00:19:10,724 Speaker 2: player PENELOPEA I named her, if she plays two hundred bullets, 348 00:19:11,604 --> 00:19:14,204 Speaker 2: two hundred entries, that is bullets. We don't want to 349 00:19:14,244 --> 00:19:16,924 Speaker 2: use violent imagery, but that's what pokers say. When you 350 00:19:16,924 --> 00:19:20,604 Speaker 2: buy into a tournament, you fire a bullet. She buys 351 00:19:20,644 --> 00:19:23,484 Speaker 2: into two hundred bullets per year in live poker tournaments 352 00:19:23,684 --> 00:19:25,244 Speaker 2: with a schedule that probably looks a lot like what 353 00:19:25,284 --> 00:19:27,324 Speaker 2: you are. I might play Maria the mix of tournaments, 354 00:19:29,284 --> 00:19:34,644 Speaker 2: and she loses money about forty to forty five percent 355 00:19:34,644 --> 00:19:37,884 Speaker 2: of the time out of two hundred entries. I might 356 00:19:37,884 --> 00:19:40,404 Speaker 2: play fifty entries this year. You might play more. You 357 00:19:40,484 --> 00:19:42,044 Speaker 2: might be I don't know where are you seventy five, 358 00:19:42,044 --> 00:19:45,764 Speaker 2: one hundred or something like. Well, probably the brutal truth 359 00:19:46,684 --> 00:19:49,204 Speaker 2: is that the odds are that we will have a 360 00:19:49,204 --> 00:19:51,964 Speaker 2: losing year, or at least I will with fifty entries. 361 00:19:52,164 --> 00:19:54,084 Speaker 2: It's hard to win money with fifty entries. Sometimes you 362 00:19:54,124 --> 00:19:56,724 Speaker 2: win a lot of money, but like probably sixty percent 363 00:19:56,764 --> 00:19:58,284 Speaker 2: of the time, you wind up with a losing year 364 00:19:58,324 --> 00:20:01,084 Speaker 2: with that, with that volume, even with with with an edge, 365 00:20:01,644 --> 00:20:04,164 Speaker 2: I assume poker tournaments, we remain pretty soft. But like, so, yeah, 366 00:20:04,164 --> 00:20:07,564 Speaker 2: probably my over under is like negative ten thousands. Okay, 367 00:20:07,604 --> 00:20:08,444 Speaker 2: I won't speak for you. 368 00:20:08,524 --> 00:20:12,724 Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna I'm gonna be optimistic, but I'll 369 00:20:12,764 --> 00:20:17,444 Speaker 1: be I'll be cautiously optimistic. We'll stay in the five 370 00:20:17,484 --> 00:20:21,324 Speaker 1: figures instead of six figures. So so I'll say that, uh, 371 00:20:21,764 --> 00:20:25,364 Speaker 1: I predict my net tournament winnings this year to be 372 00:20:26,524 --> 00:20:31,044 Speaker 1: forty five thousand, twenty twenty five. I don't know where 373 00:20:31,084 --> 00:20:34,924 Speaker 1: that number is coming from. It's it's trying, it's tempering expectations, 374 00:20:35,004 --> 00:20:40,524 Speaker 1: but trying to hope for the best. The thing is, 375 00:20:40,564 --> 00:20:41,164 Speaker 1: it's it's. 376 00:20:41,004 --> 00:20:43,684 Speaker 2: Actually kind of hard to have the forty five thousand plus. 377 00:20:43,684 --> 00:20:46,604 Speaker 2: It's like like you kind of have like you almost 378 00:20:46,604 --> 00:20:49,684 Speaker 2: want to say like negative fifty thousand, or like I 379 00:20:49,724 --> 00:20:52,164 Speaker 2: think something in three hundred k right or five, you 380 00:20:52,164 --> 00:20:54,244 Speaker 2: know what I mean, because that's kind of where the distribution. 381 00:20:54,404 --> 00:20:57,244 Speaker 1: It's true, it's true, but you know, like thinking of 382 00:20:57,284 --> 00:21:01,724 Speaker 1: this past year, you know, I had a horrific World series, 383 00:21:02,364 --> 00:21:03,924 Speaker 1: but I had a really good year at the end. 384 00:21:04,004 --> 00:21:06,484 Speaker 1: But I had you know, I had some really big scores, 385 00:21:06,524 --> 00:21:08,764 Speaker 1: but because my world series was so bad, I was, 386 00:21:09,004 --> 00:21:11,924 Speaker 1: you know, down over one hundred thousand dollars. Like that 387 00:21:12,124 --> 00:21:16,204 Speaker 1: really detracted from from the big scores. So so at 388 00:21:16,244 --> 00:21:19,444 Speaker 1: the end I was positive, but it could have, you know, 389 00:21:19,444 --> 00:21:21,564 Speaker 1: it could have very easily. It took a number of 390 00:21:21,644 --> 00:21:26,284 Speaker 1: big scores to get me to the positive part, right, So. 391 00:21:25,764 --> 00:21:28,204 Speaker 2: So what's on the what's on the schedule, even what's 392 00:21:28,244 --> 00:21:30,164 Speaker 2: on this because fucking France I was gonna go. 393 00:21:30,204 --> 00:21:34,044 Speaker 1: To I know, I know, it's very sad. It's very sad. 394 00:21:34,124 --> 00:21:36,804 Speaker 1: EPT Paris, which was supposed to be the first European 395 00:21:36,844 --> 00:21:40,964 Speaker 1: Poker Tour stop. Poker Stars my sponsor, I'm an ambassador. 396 00:21:41,204 --> 00:21:45,724 Speaker 1: You know, we've got We've got lots of descibers this show. Unfortunately, 397 00:21:45,764 --> 00:21:48,564 Speaker 1: because of French regulations that got that got canceled. They're 398 00:21:48,604 --> 00:21:51,204 Speaker 1: trying to reschedule it. I'm really hoping that it will 399 00:21:51,204 --> 00:21:53,764 Speaker 1: be rescheduled. But right now, the first EPT stop is 400 00:21:53,764 --> 00:21:56,364 Speaker 1: going to be Monte Carlo. That's going to be in April. 401 00:21:56,444 --> 00:21:58,324 Speaker 1: I will be there and you should com nate. Monte 402 00:21:58,324 --> 00:22:01,844 Speaker 1: Carlo's gorgeous. It's right on the water, absolutely. 403 00:22:01,364 --> 00:22:05,324 Speaker 2: Beautiful, Robbie. You look at Monta Carlo. 404 00:22:05,604 --> 00:22:10,524 Speaker 1: Yes, it's a beautiful probably a pretty easy, beautiful hotel, probably. 405 00:22:10,284 --> 00:22:12,244 Speaker 2: Pretty easy to persuade, beautiful. 406 00:22:11,844 --> 00:22:15,724 Speaker 1: Location, great fields. It's a really wonderful event. I think 407 00:22:15,764 --> 00:22:17,924 Speaker 1: you should come and we can do we can do 408 00:22:18,004 --> 00:22:20,484 Speaker 1: some bets for the show and for our listeners, and 409 00:22:20,524 --> 00:22:24,244 Speaker 1: we can do a podcast episode from Monte Carlo. So 410 00:22:24,444 --> 00:22:29,764 Speaker 1: let's then move on to AI. Oh I hate this question. 411 00:22:29,964 --> 00:22:33,964 Speaker 1: It's so sad. Will a consumer AI model be able 412 00:22:34,044 --> 00:22:39,364 Speaker 1: to host risky business by the end of twenty twenty 413 00:22:39,404 --> 00:22:44,324 Speaker 1: five that will be indistinguishable from meat space, you and me? 414 00:22:46,044 --> 00:22:48,444 Speaker 1: Or and if not, then in what year will that 415 00:22:48,484 --> 00:22:52,564 Speaker 1: be possible? So what's our pe doom for podcast hosts? 416 00:22:54,644 --> 00:22:58,244 Speaker 2: No, I agree, and I think it will be a while, 417 00:22:58,324 --> 00:23:02,724 Speaker 2: if ever. I mean, like, I think personality is a 418 00:23:02,804 --> 00:23:09,404 Speaker 2: very high fidelity problem that like I don't think there's 419 00:23:09,564 --> 00:23:13,764 Speaker 2: like enough. I don't know. Yeah, it's it's hard to Yeah, 420 00:23:13,764 --> 00:23:15,564 Speaker 2: it's pretty hard. I mean like it can kind of 421 00:23:15,604 --> 00:23:18,644 Speaker 2: like make inferences about people that are very smart, right, 422 00:23:18,684 --> 00:23:21,924 Speaker 2: but like because it kind of sees what the essential 423 00:23:21,964 --> 00:23:24,444 Speaker 2: features are I think, but like the nuances are very 424 00:23:25,164 --> 00:23:27,964 Speaker 2: are very tricky. Like AI is not a very good 425 00:23:29,804 --> 00:23:31,844 Speaker 2: stylist at writing. I mean, I don't think it's very 426 00:23:31,844 --> 00:23:34,004 Speaker 2: good at like art. I think people misunderstand art. This 427 00:23:34,044 --> 00:23:35,564 Speaker 2: is a band, but like it is for another time. 428 00:23:35,604 --> 00:23:37,924 Speaker 2: But like I'm not worried about this in the short thing. 429 00:23:37,924 --> 00:23:39,764 Speaker 1: I totally agree with you. I don't think it's good 430 00:23:39,804 --> 00:23:44,364 Speaker 1: at creative things in general, because it's good at regurgitation 431 00:23:44,604 --> 00:23:48,004 Speaker 1: and at making things formally look like they're like on 432 00:23:48,044 --> 00:23:51,724 Speaker 1: the surface good formalistically, but I don't think it's able 433 00:23:51,764 --> 00:23:55,764 Speaker 1: to have creative insight. It's not able to connect ideas 434 00:23:55,884 --> 00:23:58,724 Speaker 1: or answer questions in ways that haven't been done before 435 00:23:59,284 --> 00:24:01,284 Speaker 1: because it doesn't actually think right. It doesn't actually have 436 00:24:01,324 --> 00:24:04,724 Speaker 1: a brain. All it's doing is kind of connecting information. 437 00:24:05,684 --> 00:24:09,604 Speaker 1: And there's also that there's also the garbage in garbage out. 438 00:24:09,844 --> 00:24:13,564 Speaker 1: As more and more people are saying, you know, don't 439 00:24:13,604 --> 00:24:17,604 Speaker 1: train AI on our ship, then you see that the 440 00:24:17,604 --> 00:24:22,044 Speaker 1: AI output actually degenerates pretty quickly. So so I don't 441 00:24:22,404 --> 00:24:25,084 Speaker 1: I don't think they're coming for our jobs yet. 442 00:24:26,324 --> 00:24:29,364 Speaker 2: And I'm not sure I agree that it doesn't think. 443 00:24:29,444 --> 00:24:32,604 Speaker 1: Well thinking, So I guess. I guess this is a 444 00:24:32,724 --> 00:24:35,444 Speaker 1: much deeper philosophical discussion, which we can have on another 445 00:24:35,764 --> 00:24:37,644 Speaker 1: episode of the show because it will take too long. 446 00:24:37,724 --> 00:24:40,484 Speaker 1: But I think this is a very interesting question about 447 00:24:40,484 --> 00:24:45,564 Speaker 1: what thinking actually is and how we should define that. 448 00:24:45,884 --> 00:24:49,004 Speaker 1: But yeah, let's let's table that and let's have an 449 00:24:49,004 --> 00:24:52,164 Speaker 1: episode about that, because I actually think it's really interesting. Nate, 450 00:24:52,204 --> 00:24:55,924 Speaker 1: there's a question that's specific to you. You have ten 451 00:24:56,004 --> 00:24:59,324 Speaker 1: thousand dollars and you can bet it on any line 452 00:24:59,444 --> 00:25:02,284 Speaker 1: in sports this year, but you have to bet right now. 453 00:25:03,004 --> 00:25:06,244 Speaker 2: I mean, I think the Oklahoma city is shay. You'll 454 00:25:06,324 --> 00:25:09,004 Speaker 2: just Alexander is a good bet. When the MVP A 455 00:25:09,124 --> 00:25:13,124 Speaker 2: were and he was at something like minus one twenty before, 456 00:25:13,204 --> 00:25:15,244 Speaker 2: which implies what is that like if you know fifty 457 00:25:15,284 --> 00:25:17,124 Speaker 2: five to sixty percent chance. I think he's more lucky 458 00:25:17,164 --> 00:25:19,404 Speaker 2: than that to win the award. He is averaging let 459 00:25:19,444 --> 00:25:23,164 Speaker 2: me look up his stats, so he's on the best 460 00:25:23,164 --> 00:25:26,764 Speaker 2: team in the league. He's averaging thirty one point three 461 00:25:26,804 --> 00:25:30,684 Speaker 2: points per game, five and a half rebounds, six assists, 462 00:25:31,044 --> 00:25:33,804 Speaker 2: almost two steals per game on the best defense in 463 00:25:33,804 --> 00:25:36,444 Speaker 2: the league, on the best team in the league. Nicola 464 00:25:36,524 --> 00:25:39,124 Speaker 2: Jokich is an incompetition great player, but the Nuggets kind 465 00:25:39,164 --> 00:25:41,284 Speaker 2: of suck. I think I think he is more lucky 466 00:25:41,324 --> 00:25:44,004 Speaker 2: than Vegas assumes to win the MVP. And when I 467 00:25:44,004 --> 00:25:45,804 Speaker 2: get back in any country we're betting is legal, I 468 00:25:45,844 --> 00:25:48,724 Speaker 2: will be betting, probably not ten K, but betting some 469 00:25:49,044 --> 00:25:49,684 Speaker 2: money on that. 470 00:25:50,044 --> 00:25:54,164 Speaker 1: All right, Well you heard it here first, Nate. Does 471 00:25:54,164 --> 00:25:56,724 Speaker 1: this mean that I should quickly open a sportsbook account 472 00:25:56,964 --> 00:26:00,684 Speaker 1: and bet that I don't have? It's probably I've never 473 00:26:00,724 --> 00:26:02,764 Speaker 1: done any sports betting. By the way, ever, in my. 474 00:26:02,644 --> 00:26:06,204 Speaker 2: Minus war twenty is fifty five percent animals at sixty, 475 00:26:07,764 --> 00:26:12,804 Speaker 2: So the answer is probably probably not okay, right, I 476 00:26:12,844 --> 00:26:15,084 Speaker 2: mean because like, well, if you get like all the 477 00:26:15,124 --> 00:26:18,484 Speaker 2: bonuses from the sports betting account, then sure, right, like 478 00:26:18,724 --> 00:26:20,364 Speaker 2: a reason why I like you don't want to make 479 00:26:20,564 --> 00:26:26,044 Speaker 2: Like in theory, these long term future's bets are fairly profitable, right, 480 00:26:27,524 --> 00:26:31,964 Speaker 2: but in principle, if I am betting now on January, 481 00:26:32,044 --> 00:26:37,044 Speaker 2: that ties up my capital for for several months, right, 482 00:26:37,164 --> 00:26:39,244 Speaker 2: And then theory that like takes like a little tax 483 00:26:39,284 --> 00:26:40,724 Speaker 2: on it, where like in theory, if that's in the 484 00:26:40,764 --> 00:26:43,964 Speaker 2: s and P. Five hundred over four months, then you 485 00:26:44,044 --> 00:26:46,684 Speaker 2: make whatever two and a half percent or something like that, 486 00:26:46,764 --> 00:26:48,444 Speaker 2: And so like that's a little bit of a tax. 487 00:26:48,484 --> 00:26:51,164 Speaker 2: It's meaningful. But then look, I don't know, I think 488 00:26:51,204 --> 00:26:52,684 Speaker 2: it's a good bet. I'm gonna make that bet when 489 00:26:52,724 --> 00:26:52,964 Speaker 2: I can. 490 00:26:53,084 --> 00:26:54,364 Speaker 1: All right, sounds good. 491 00:26:56,364 --> 00:27:02,644 Speaker 2: And we have a question for Maria what cognitive bias. 492 00:27:03,484 --> 00:27:07,044 Speaker 2: They're all excited they went to the cognitive bias New 493 00:27:07,124 --> 00:27:10,884 Speaker 2: Year's party, And can you imagine and like different cognitive 494 00:27:10,924 --> 00:27:11,564 Speaker 2: biases at a. 495 00:27:11,484 --> 00:27:14,244 Speaker 1: Post that would be a hilarious skit. 496 00:27:14,564 --> 00:27:17,124 Speaker 2: Well, what kind oftive bias will win the second annual 497 00:27:17,204 --> 00:27:20,004 Speaker 2: Daniel kind of a Memorial Cognitive Bias of the Year 498 00:27:20,164 --> 00:27:21,564 Speaker 2: Award for twenty twenty five. 499 00:27:21,684 --> 00:27:23,484 Speaker 1: Right, So we just had the Golden Globe Awards, and 500 00:27:23,524 --> 00:27:26,244 Speaker 1: now cognitive biases are looking to see which one of 501 00:27:26,284 --> 00:27:29,484 Speaker 1: them is going to win. I am going to vote 502 00:27:29,524 --> 00:27:34,284 Speaker 1: for the recency effect as the bias of twenty twenty five. 503 00:27:35,124 --> 00:27:38,724 Speaker 1: And what the recency effect also known as the availability bias? 504 00:27:38,964 --> 00:27:44,764 Speaker 1: It means that basically, we overvalue what's happening, what just happened, 505 00:27:44,844 --> 00:27:47,284 Speaker 1: things that are easily available to memory, and kind of 506 00:27:47,284 --> 00:27:50,404 Speaker 1: forget the rest, right, Like it's a kind of amnesia 507 00:27:50,724 --> 00:27:54,484 Speaker 1: where you forget selectively forget history and what's come before, 508 00:27:54,884 --> 00:27:58,204 Speaker 1: and you overwet your decisions based on the information and 509 00:27:58,244 --> 00:28:00,484 Speaker 1: the events that have just happened and that are most 510 00:28:00,684 --> 00:28:03,644 Speaker 1: easily accessible in your mind. And I think we already 511 00:28:03,644 --> 00:28:06,204 Speaker 1: started to see that. You know, it's funny, I just 512 00:28:06,244 --> 00:28:08,484 Speaker 1: made the joke about the Golden Globes, but you already 513 00:28:08,524 --> 00:28:10,644 Speaker 1: saw that in the goal in globes where basically no 514 00:28:10,684 --> 00:28:13,324 Speaker 1: one talked politics, right, it was like, if you remember 515 00:28:13,404 --> 00:28:16,524 Speaker 1: what happened after Donald Trump's first election, everyone had it 516 00:28:16,564 --> 00:28:18,804 Speaker 1: in their speech and there was all this stuff, and 517 00:28:18,844 --> 00:28:21,284 Speaker 1: this time it was just like, h okay, right, like 518 00:28:22,604 --> 00:28:25,804 Speaker 1: moving moving on, We're not gonna we're not going to 519 00:28:25,844 --> 00:28:28,724 Speaker 1: talk about it. We don't we don't really care. And 520 00:28:28,844 --> 00:28:31,044 Speaker 1: so it just goes to show that, you know, our 521 00:28:31,324 --> 00:28:35,884 Speaker 1: memories are short, and we accept kind of new normals 522 00:28:36,004 --> 00:28:38,924 Speaker 1: very very quickly. And I think we'll we'll see a 523 00:28:38,924 --> 00:28:42,484 Speaker 1: lot of collective forgetting happening in the year twenty twenty five. 524 00:28:43,964 --> 00:28:45,724 Speaker 2: I was host. I don't know if it's the same 525 00:28:45,844 --> 00:28:47,044 Speaker 2: or the opposite. I was going to kind of go 526 00:28:47,124 --> 00:28:50,484 Speaker 2: with the with the hot hand bias, right. I think 527 00:28:51,404 --> 00:28:54,964 Speaker 2: Trump and Republicans are likely to overreach and overestimate their popularity, 528 00:28:55,004 --> 00:28:57,444 Speaker 2: and like we talked about before, being president is hard. 529 00:28:58,804 --> 00:28:59,524 Speaker 2: But we'll see. 530 00:29:00,004 --> 00:29:03,124 Speaker 1: I think I think that's also quite likely that's they're 531 00:29:03,124 --> 00:29:06,284 Speaker 1: not they're not mutually exclusive. I think both of these 532 00:29:06,284 --> 00:29:13,484 Speaker 1: things could absolutely be true. Yeah, and we'll be back 533 00:29:13,564 --> 00:29:28,364 Speaker 1: right after this. Let's move on to a multiple choice 534 00:29:28,364 --> 00:29:31,844 Speaker 1: around about TikTok Okay, what's going to happen to TikTok 535 00:29:32,324 --> 00:29:36,964 Speaker 1: a banned in the US? So Alpha Jen Alpha Riots 536 00:29:37,404 --> 00:29:41,324 Speaker 1: b sold to a non Chinese company, C, nothing remains 537 00:29:41,364 --> 00:29:45,084 Speaker 1: under Chinese corporate control or D none of the above. 538 00:29:45,364 --> 00:29:47,604 Speaker 2: So Trump has asked the Supreme Court to pause the 539 00:29:47,684 --> 00:29:50,644 Speaker 2: law that could ban TikTok. I'm gonna, I'm gonna, Marie, 540 00:29:50,724 --> 00:29:53,284 Speaker 2: why aren't you in foremost, will I cheat by looking 541 00:29:53,324 --> 00:29:54,044 Speaker 2: at polymarket? 542 00:29:54,964 --> 00:29:58,524 Speaker 1: I think it is going to be sold to a 543 00:29:58,564 --> 00:30:03,204 Speaker 1: non Chinese company, because so that's that's option B. I 544 00:30:03,284 --> 00:30:04,964 Speaker 1: don't think it's going to be banned. I think that's 545 00:30:05,044 --> 00:30:10,004 Speaker 1: too politically kind of risky. And Donald Trump does not 546 00:30:10,084 --> 00:30:12,044 Speaker 1: like to do something that's going to hurt his popularity 547 00:30:12,084 --> 00:30:16,604 Speaker 1: that much. But he you know, with tariffs, et cetera, 548 00:30:16,684 --> 00:30:20,244 Speaker 1: it's not like he cares that much about alienating China 549 00:30:20,324 --> 00:30:22,844 Speaker 1: on some level. So I think that that might be 550 00:30:22,924 --> 00:30:26,724 Speaker 1: the compromise that that ends up that ends up winning out. 551 00:30:26,924 --> 00:30:30,324 Speaker 1: So sold to a non Chinese holiday market, all right, tell. 552 00:30:30,124 --> 00:30:32,564 Speaker 2: Me it's a forty three percent chance that TikTok has 553 00:30:32,604 --> 00:30:36,444 Speaker 2: banned in the US before May twenty five, and so 554 00:30:36,604 --> 00:30:39,764 Speaker 2: like if you exchect it out to anytime, that's surprisingly high. 555 00:30:39,804 --> 00:30:43,124 Speaker 2: But like, so we do this law in place right 556 00:30:43,164 --> 00:30:46,004 Speaker 2: that required it to be sold, So Trump will kind 557 00:30:46,044 --> 00:30:50,364 Speaker 2: of have to go out of his way to prevent that, right, 558 00:30:50,364 --> 00:30:52,364 Speaker 2: And I guess you're right, right because like, I think 559 00:30:52,404 --> 00:30:58,724 Speaker 2: Trump concluded that like TikTok was probably helpful to him 560 00:30:58,804 --> 00:31:00,964 Speaker 2: in the general election, right, Like it seemed to be 561 00:31:01,004 --> 00:31:06,804 Speaker 2: boosting a lot of the campus protest type of stuff. Right, 562 00:31:07,924 --> 00:31:13,084 Speaker 2: But Trump is also hawkish on China. I'm going to 563 00:31:13,124 --> 00:31:16,804 Speaker 2: follow the polymarket logic. I'm gonna go that like TikTok 564 00:31:16,844 --> 00:31:19,284 Speaker 2: will be banned in the US with above fifty percent 565 00:31:19,324 --> 00:31:21,604 Speaker 2: probability by the end of the year, not by May. 566 00:31:21,604 --> 00:31:26,124 Speaker 2: I'm going n trusting the market here by May. And 567 00:31:26,164 --> 00:31:27,324 Speaker 2: then yeah. 568 00:31:27,244 --> 00:31:29,404 Speaker 1: All right, so we'll see what happens. Does it get 569 00:31:29,404 --> 00:31:31,644 Speaker 1: banned or does it get sold to a non Chinese company. 570 00:31:32,564 --> 00:31:34,964 Speaker 1: Apparently the loser of this has to post to TikTok. 571 00:31:35,004 --> 00:31:37,364 Speaker 1: We'll see about that. I'm not committing, not committing. 572 00:31:37,604 --> 00:31:40,684 Speaker 2: I haven't thought it. So if I'm wrong, So if 573 00:31:40,724 --> 00:31:44,724 Speaker 2: you're wrong, TikTok is banned, so you don't have to post. 574 00:31:44,764 --> 00:31:45,684 Speaker 2: That seems unfair. 575 00:31:45,924 --> 00:31:49,804 Speaker 1: That is unfair. Yeah, it's true. Well, we'll we'll figure out. 576 00:31:49,804 --> 00:31:54,484 Speaker 1: We'll figure out another That is funny. That is very funny. 577 00:31:55,404 --> 00:31:57,884 Speaker 1: All right, let's do a lightning round for pop culture. 578 00:31:58,324 --> 00:32:00,724 Speaker 1: I don't know if you care about this, but I've 579 00:32:00,764 --> 00:32:03,244 Speaker 1: been following Will the Oasis brothers have a fight on 580 00:32:03,324 --> 00:32:07,284 Speaker 1: stage during their twenty twenty five world tour? Absolutely they will. 581 00:32:07,644 --> 00:32:11,564 Speaker 1: Those people, those two guys cannot coexist. I think they've 582 00:32:11,604 --> 00:32:13,844 Speaker 1: thrown shit at each other every single time they've been 583 00:32:13,884 --> 00:32:16,284 Speaker 1: on stage, or one of them has stormed off every 584 00:32:16,324 --> 00:32:18,444 Speaker 1: single time that they've tried to do a reunion tour. 585 00:32:19,124 --> 00:32:20,844 Speaker 1: If they care about their bottom line, I think the 586 00:32:20,884 --> 00:32:23,604 Speaker 1: only reason they're having a reunion tour is because one 587 00:32:23,804 --> 00:32:26,404 Speaker 1: or both of them wants money. They'll probably try not 588 00:32:26,484 --> 00:32:27,644 Speaker 1: to do it at the very beginning. 589 00:32:27,844 --> 00:32:29,844 Speaker 2: Yeah, it might be a fake fight, but like they'll 590 00:32:29,844 --> 00:32:32,244 Speaker 2: have it. I mean that's a pretty logical bet. 591 00:32:32,324 --> 00:32:35,124 Speaker 1: I agree. All right. Kim Kardashian visiting mar A Lago. 592 00:32:36,084 --> 00:32:37,484 Speaker 2: Is she taking a stance on Trump? 593 00:32:37,764 --> 00:32:40,044 Speaker 1: No, but I think she will because I think she 594 00:32:40,284 --> 00:32:42,204 Speaker 1: you know, she was married to Kanye for so long 595 00:32:42,324 --> 00:32:47,164 Speaker 1: or whatever he's calling himself now. Yeah, yeah, so I 596 00:32:47,204 --> 00:32:49,484 Speaker 1: think I think there's a good chance that she that 597 00:32:49,564 --> 00:32:52,124 Speaker 1: she goes there, and she's also very business savvy, so 598 00:32:52,164 --> 00:32:54,684 Speaker 1: I think she will do whatever's better for her bottom line. 599 00:32:54,684 --> 00:32:58,244 Speaker 1: And I think that she'll she'll probably uh that that 600 00:32:58,324 --> 00:33:00,724 Speaker 1: means coosing up to Trump, So I would I would 601 00:33:00,724 --> 00:33:02,004 Speaker 1: say there's a good chance she doesn't. 602 00:33:02,244 --> 00:33:04,764 Speaker 2: I have no opinion. I'm proud to have no opinion. 603 00:33:04,884 --> 00:33:08,084 Speaker 1: Sounds good. Best Picture winner? Do you have an opinion? 604 00:33:09,524 --> 00:33:13,804 Speaker 2: Uh, I know it's about dyla movie good. 605 00:33:15,924 --> 00:33:18,844 Speaker 1: I have not seen it yet, so so I don't know. 606 00:33:20,404 --> 00:33:24,764 Speaker 1: I'll put uh, let's put the Brutalists there. Seems like 607 00:33:24,804 --> 00:33:28,404 Speaker 1: it seems like a good one. Oh, this is interesting. 608 00:33:28,484 --> 00:33:31,724 Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna have to speculate on this chance 609 00:33:31,764 --> 00:33:36,404 Speaker 1: that Nate wears skinny jeans, which are supposedly back. So 610 00:33:36,404 --> 00:33:38,644 Speaker 1: so you know with one hundred percent certainty whether it's 611 00:33:38,724 --> 00:33:39,164 Speaker 1: yes or no. 612 00:33:40,804 --> 00:33:43,764 Speaker 2: And I don't. I don't know where's it. Where's a 613 00:33:43,804 --> 00:33:45,084 Speaker 2: threshold for seini jeans? 614 00:33:45,964 --> 00:33:48,484 Speaker 1: I don't. I don't know. This is very interesting, and 615 00:33:48,524 --> 00:33:50,844 Speaker 1: I think it's probably different for men and women because 616 00:33:50,884 --> 00:33:53,644 Speaker 1: straight leg jeans for women are not skinny jeans. For women, 617 00:33:53,684 --> 00:33:55,484 Speaker 1: they really have to be like skin tight. But I 618 00:33:55,484 --> 00:33:59,164 Speaker 1: feel like for men there's more of a there's like 619 00:33:59,284 --> 00:34:01,804 Speaker 1: more of a window for them to be like a 620 00:34:01,844 --> 00:34:05,644 Speaker 1: little bit less than skin tight. I'm gonna I can't 621 00:34:05,684 --> 00:34:10,924 Speaker 1: even speculate on this. Well, no, okay, I'm. 622 00:34:10,804 --> 00:34:14,564 Speaker 2: Turning forty seven years old in a week, Marie, I'm 623 00:34:14,564 --> 00:34:16,404 Speaker 2: not going to be wearing skinny jeans. I don't think. 624 00:34:16,444 --> 00:34:18,644 Speaker 1: All right, well, I'll talk to your partner about this 625 00:34:18,764 --> 00:34:21,564 Speaker 1: and see. I think it depends on it depends on 626 00:34:21,604 --> 00:34:22,844 Speaker 1: how the styles go. 627 00:34:23,364 --> 00:34:26,524 Speaker 2: If I win, if I win an event at Monte Carlo, 628 00:34:26,604 --> 00:34:29,284 Speaker 2: then I'll celebrate by buying some All right, let's do 629 00:34:29,324 --> 00:34:31,204 Speaker 2: skinny jeans in Europe. Let's do it. 630 00:34:31,564 --> 00:34:33,924 Speaker 1: And finally, do you have a long shot bet for 631 00:34:33,964 --> 00:34:36,364 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, the thing that probably isn't going to happen, 632 00:34:36,444 --> 00:34:38,004 Speaker 1: but you look like a genius if it does. 633 00:34:40,044 --> 00:34:41,324 Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually do have one. 634 00:34:41,564 --> 00:34:42,044 Speaker 1: What is it? 635 00:34:43,684 --> 00:34:46,924 Speaker 2: Remember the drone thing? 636 00:34:47,244 --> 00:34:48,404 Speaker 1: Yeah, the New Jersey dress. 637 00:34:48,644 --> 00:34:51,404 Speaker 2: There are efforts of all these like drones over New 638 00:34:51,484 --> 00:34:53,324 Speaker 2: Jersey and then it kind of went haywire and then 639 00:34:53,364 --> 00:34:56,484 Speaker 2: it died out yep, and you know, people forgot about it. 640 00:34:57,764 --> 00:35:03,284 Speaker 2: I think there's like a one in three chance that 641 00:35:03,444 --> 00:35:07,964 Speaker 2: later reporting reveals that the initial spark of something was 642 00:35:08,044 --> 00:35:10,204 Speaker 2: something real. 643 00:35:10,404 --> 00:35:14,124 Speaker 1: Okay, that's I think that's a really interesting prediction. 644 00:35:15,844 --> 00:35:18,844 Speaker 2: Yeah, because the issue is like, once it became this 645 00:35:18,924 --> 00:35:21,764 Speaker 2: big viral thing. Then like the signal to noise ratio 646 00:35:21,924 --> 00:35:25,124 Speaker 2: went way down and people were like just seeing like playings, 647 00:35:25,204 --> 00:35:27,924 Speaker 2: learning at new work and every old you know, the 648 00:35:27,924 --> 00:35:30,844 Speaker 2: moon and shit like that, right, But like you did 649 00:35:30,844 --> 00:35:33,484 Speaker 2: have like the initial reports seemed more credible and like 650 00:35:33,524 --> 00:35:35,844 Speaker 2: also like if you were like and there are a 651 00:35:35,844 --> 00:35:37,964 Speaker 2: lot of military bases around there, if you were like, 652 00:35:38,364 --> 00:35:40,404 Speaker 2: I don't think it's anything like super exciting, right, but 653 00:35:40,524 --> 00:35:43,564 Speaker 2: like let's say you were testing out some new type 654 00:35:43,564 --> 00:35:46,684 Speaker 2: of surveillance drone, right and you're running them back and 655 00:35:46,724 --> 00:35:49,884 Speaker 2: forth between different military bases, and the US military, by 656 00:35:49,924 --> 00:35:53,284 Speaker 2: the way, like has lots of drone technology, doesn't deny 657 00:35:53,364 --> 00:35:57,004 Speaker 2: that it's an important part of a defense arsenal these days, right, 658 00:35:58,364 --> 00:36:01,364 Speaker 2: I think it's like reasonably likely that like they were 659 00:36:01,524 --> 00:36:03,444 Speaker 2: doing this a little too much, and like some people 660 00:36:03,444 --> 00:36:06,964 Speaker 2: who were noticing carefully detected a change and the number 661 00:36:07,004 --> 00:36:11,604 Speaker 2: of drones relative to baseline, and then kind of people 662 00:36:11,644 --> 00:36:13,884 Speaker 2: that carried away and they were like and their denials 663 00:36:13,884 --> 00:36:16,404 Speaker 2: weren't very They were like, well, there are lots of 664 00:36:16,444 --> 00:36:19,804 Speaker 2: things in are drones in the sky, which is true, right, 665 00:36:19,844 --> 00:36:22,164 Speaker 2: and became more and more true. Was more reports surfaced 666 00:36:22,644 --> 00:36:24,164 Speaker 2: but if you were doing that shit, like let's say 667 00:36:24,164 --> 00:36:29,244 Speaker 2: you have like a little pilot project or no puninitendies 668 00:36:29,364 --> 00:36:33,564 Speaker 2: unpiloted project, you probably cut the fuck out of that 669 00:36:33,604 --> 00:36:36,964 Speaker 2: once you once you get scrutiny on it, right, So 670 00:36:37,004 --> 00:36:38,484 Speaker 2: I think there might have been something real there. I 671 00:36:38,524 --> 00:36:41,044 Speaker 2: think the media was like not very basying in how 672 00:36:41,044 --> 00:36:44,164 Speaker 2: I thought about the story, right, And like the military 673 00:36:44,204 --> 00:36:47,484 Speaker 2: has drones, and like there ever reports about activity over 674 00:36:47,924 --> 00:36:51,844 Speaker 2: over air force bases for years that are fairly credible 675 00:36:51,844 --> 00:36:53,604 Speaker 2: and reported batlets like the Wall Street Journal, and I 676 00:36:53,684 --> 00:36:56,564 Speaker 2: thought people were much too smug about that. And in 677 00:36:56,644 --> 00:36:59,524 Speaker 2: the in the Trump era, there's a certain type of 678 00:36:59,724 --> 00:37:04,004 Speaker 2: story where like where greater skepticism of the establishment I 679 00:37:04,004 --> 00:37:08,124 Speaker 2: think might be might be helpful. Yeah, so that's my 680 00:37:08,124 --> 00:37:10,724 Speaker 2: weird I wouldn't take it even money, But like I'd 681 00:37:10,724 --> 00:37:13,844 Speaker 2: say one in three that some credible news outlet publishes 682 00:37:13,884 --> 00:37:17,124 Speaker 2: a story probably opaquely sourcing, like yeah, there was a 683 00:37:17,124 --> 00:37:18,964 Speaker 2: little something there, It was no big deal, but like 684 00:37:19,124 --> 00:37:21,444 Speaker 2: people weren't totally making this up, and there was like 685 00:37:21,484 --> 00:37:24,804 Speaker 2: a discrete increase for a couple of weeks Stare in 686 00:37:24,844 --> 00:37:25,324 Speaker 2: New Jersey. 687 00:37:25,604 --> 00:37:28,124 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that sounds very plausible. To me, you 688 00:37:28,124 --> 00:37:32,084 Speaker 1: know when I you know, living in Vegas near a 689 00:37:32,124 --> 00:37:35,364 Speaker 1: lot of a lot of military bases, you actually see 690 00:37:35,364 --> 00:37:38,884 Speaker 1: weird shit in the sky all the time, including drone displays, 691 00:37:38,964 --> 00:37:41,204 Speaker 1: and so I think that you know, there, you're just 692 00:37:41,244 --> 00:37:43,324 Speaker 1: kind of used to it. You're like, there's Nellus, you know, 693 00:37:43,804 --> 00:37:48,604 Speaker 1: there's all this stuff, and I think that there, I'm 694 00:37:48,604 --> 00:37:52,964 Speaker 1: actually I think your prediction is a pretty solid one. 695 00:37:53,124 --> 00:37:57,564 Speaker 1: Mine was not nearly as fun or as interesting or 696 00:37:57,564 --> 00:38:01,804 Speaker 1: as technology well sort of technology oriented. But I'm predicting 697 00:38:02,044 --> 00:38:04,484 Speaker 1: that twenty twenty five is going to be the year 698 00:38:04,644 --> 00:38:09,004 Speaker 1: that we see a nuclear power resurgence, That all of 699 00:38:09,044 --> 00:38:12,564 Speaker 1: the countries that have brought their power plants offline are 700 00:38:12,604 --> 00:38:14,364 Speaker 1: going to bring them back online, and we're going to 701 00:38:14,364 --> 00:38:17,484 Speaker 1: see the first new nuclear power plants open for a 702 00:38:17,524 --> 00:38:20,764 Speaker 1: long time. That what makes you say that AI energy 703 00:38:20,764 --> 00:38:24,044 Speaker 1: needs our power, We need power. Yeah, energy needs are 704 00:38:24,844 --> 00:38:28,684 Speaker 1: are rising and companies don't know how to meet them 705 00:38:28,724 --> 00:38:31,404 Speaker 1: and nuclear This will make them much friendlier to nuclear 706 00:38:31,444 --> 00:38:33,884 Speaker 1: power than they ever have been before. And I'm actually 707 00:38:33,964 --> 00:38:35,884 Speaker 1: very pro nuclear power. I think this is a good thing. 708 00:38:35,924 --> 00:38:38,284 Speaker 1: I think that could be one of the good consequences 709 00:38:38,324 --> 00:38:40,324 Speaker 1: of AI because I think it's a really nice, clean 710 00:38:40,404 --> 00:38:44,684 Speaker 1: energy source. So that's my prediction on that note, Nate, 711 00:38:44,724 --> 00:38:46,524 Speaker 1: I think you have to get to an airport right 712 00:38:46,564 --> 00:38:50,164 Speaker 1: You're you're in Tokyo, You're about to fly, and I 713 00:38:50,204 --> 00:38:52,844 Speaker 1: need to get to a comedy show. I am seeing 714 00:38:52,924 --> 00:38:56,164 Speaker 1: Alex Adelman and I'm very, very excited about that. So 715 00:38:57,044 --> 00:39:00,284 Speaker 1: yes we will. We're both having two exciting destinations. Mine 716 00:39:00,284 --> 00:39:01,724 Speaker 1: a little bit more exciting than yours. 717 00:39:02,884 --> 00:39:04,404 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm going to the airport. I'm not even 718 00:39:04,404 --> 00:39:06,244 Speaker 2: the nice airport in Tokyo, go to Henata. 719 00:39:06,364 --> 00:39:09,964 Speaker 1: All right, there we have it. Safe travels and we'll 720 00:39:09,964 --> 00:39:11,724 Speaker 1: see you next week. Happy twenty twenty five. 721 00:39:11,764 --> 00:39:33,244 Speaker 3: Everyone. 722 00:39:34,084 --> 00:39:36,204 Speaker 1: Let us know what you think of the show. Reach 723 00:39:36,284 --> 00:39:41,764 Speaker 1: out to us at Risky Business at Pushkin dot FM. 724 00:39:41,844 --> 00:39:44,964 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Konnikova. 725 00:39:44,884 --> 00:39:46,244 Speaker 2: And byb Nate Silver. 726 00:39:47,124 --> 00:39:50,644 Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. 727 00:39:51,164 --> 00:39:54,724 Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer 728 00:39:54,804 --> 00:39:58,324 Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 729 00:39:58,924 --> 00:40:01,044 Speaker 2: If you like the show, please rate and review us 730 00:40:01,044 --> 00:40:03,124 Speaker 2: so other people can find us too, And if you 731 00:40:03,164 --> 00:40:05,524 Speaker 2: want to listen to an ad free version. Sign up 732 00:40:05,524 --> 00:40:08,124 Speaker 2: for Quskin Plus. For six, ten and nine a month, 733 00:40:08,164 --> 00:40:10,884 Speaker 2: you had access to ad free list. Thanks for tuning in.