WEBVTT - The Queen of Cuba

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin. This episode contains explicit language. Revision's History listeners Malcolm

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<v Speaker 1>glad we'll hear. I've written a new book called Talking

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<v Speaker 1>to Strangers, and it's about the mistakes we make in

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<v Speaker 1>our interactions with people we don't know. Talking to Strangers

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<v Speaker 1>features con artists and sociopaths and spies. It talks about

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<v Speaker 1>how drinking affects the way we make sense of others.

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<v Speaker 1>I spend time with the psychologist who ran the CIA's

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<v Speaker 1>interrogation program and the man who spotted Bernie Madoff before

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<v Speaker 1>anyone else, and I try to get to the bottom

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<v Speaker 1>of a heartbreaking encounter between a police officer and a

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<v Speaker 1>civilian which resulted in the death of a young woman

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<v Speaker 1>named Sandra Bland in Texas. I think it's a book

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<v Speaker 1>that will prompt a lot of conversations and arguments, which,

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<v Speaker 1>as you know from Rege History, is what I like

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<v Speaker 1>to do. I'm very proud of it. And there's something

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<v Speaker 1>else I'm proud of with Talking to Strangers. After making

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<v Speaker 1>four seasons of Revisionist History, I've fallen in love with

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<v Speaker 1>a kind of storytelling that can be done through a podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>and I decided that I wanted to bring that same

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<v Speaker 1>approach to the audiobook of Talking to Strangers. Normally, an

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<v Speaker 1>audiobook is just the author or someone the author hires,

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<v Speaker 1>reading into a microphone. I didn't want to do that.

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<v Speaker 1>I wanted to make this audiobook of Talking to Strangers

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<v Speaker 1>as compelling as an episode of revisionist history. So if

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<v Speaker 1>you listen to the audiobook, you'll hear the voices of

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<v Speaker 1>the people I interview, and if I'm describing some historical event,

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<v Speaker 1>you'll hear archival tape for courtroom scenes. We have actors

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<v Speaker 1>reimagining what happened. There's music, an extraordinary song by Jenelle

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<v Speaker 1>money Scoring. We even have excerpts from other audiobooks and

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<v Speaker 1>podcasts like The Fantastic Believed from NPR and Michigan Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the result is a completely different kind of

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<v Speaker 1>audiobook experience, much more powerful, moving, engrossing. Anyway, rather than

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<v Speaker 1>describe it, I thought I would give you a special preview.

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<v Speaker 1>So here it is Chapter three of Talking to Strangers

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<v Speaker 1>done the New way. Let's take a look at another

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<v Speaker 1>Cuban spy story. In the early nineteen nineties, thousands of

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<v Speaker 1>Cubans began to flee the regime of Fidel Castro. They

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<v Speaker 1>cobbled together crewde boats made of inner tubes and metal

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<v Speaker 1>drums and wooden doors, and any number of other stray parts.

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<v Speaker 1>They set out on a desperate voyage across the ninety

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<v Speaker 1>miles of the Florida Straits to the United States. By

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<v Speaker 1>one estimate, as many as twenty four thousand people died

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<v Speaker 1>attempting the journey. It was a human rights disaster. In response,

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<v Speaker 1>a group of Cuban Emigreys in Miami founded Ermanos el

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<v Speaker 1>Riscat Brothers to the Rescue. They put together a makeshift

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<v Speaker 1>air force of single engine Cessna Skymasters and took to

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<v Speaker 1>the skies over the Florida Straits, searching for refugees from

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<v Speaker 1>the air and radioating their coordinates to the Coastguard. Ermanos

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<v Speaker 1>el Riscate saved thousands of lives. They became heroes. As

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<v Speaker 1>time passed, the Emigreys grew more ambitious. They began flying

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<v Speaker 1>into Cuban airspace, dropping leaflets on Havana, urging the Cuban

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<v Speaker 1>people to rise up against Castro's regime. The Cuban government,

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<v Speaker 1>already embarrassed by the flight of refugees, was outraged. Tensions rose,

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<v Speaker 1>coming to a head on February twenty fourth, nineteen ninety six.

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<v Speaker 1>That afternoon, three Armanos al riscate planes took off for

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<v Speaker 1>the Florida Straits. As they neared the Cuban coastline, two

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<v Speaker 1>Cuban Air Force meg Fighter jets shot down two of

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<v Speaker 1>the planes out of the sky, killing all four people aboard.

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<v Speaker 1>The response to the attack was immediate. The United States

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<v Speaker 1>Security Council passed a resolution denouncing the Cuban government a grave.

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<v Speaker 1>President Clinton held a press conference.

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<v Speaker 2>Ladies and gentlemen, I have just been briefed by the

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<v Speaker 2>National Security Advisor on the shooting down today in broad

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<v Speaker 2>daylight two American civilian airplanes by a Cuban military aircraft.

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<v Speaker 1>The Cuban emigrat population in Miami was furious. The two

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<v Speaker 1>planes had been shot down in international airspace, making the

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<v Speaker 1>incident tantamount to an act of war. The radio chatter

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<v Speaker 1>among the Cuban pilots was released to the press. We

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<v Speaker 1>hit him, Cohonis, we hit him. We retired them, Cohonis,

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<v Speaker 1>we hit them fuckers. Mark the place where we retired them.

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<v Speaker 1>This one won't fuck with us anymore. And then after

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<v Speaker 1>one of the MiGs zeroed in on the second Cessna

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<v Speaker 1>Homeland or Deathew Bastards, But in the midst of the controversy,

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<v Speaker 1>the story suddenly shifted. A retired US rear admiral named

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<v Speaker 1>Eugene Carroll gave an interview to CNN. Carol was an

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<v Speaker 1>influential figure inside Washington. He had formerly served as director

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<v Speaker 1>of all US Armed Forces in Europe, with seven thousand

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<v Speaker 1>weapons at his disposal. Just before the Armanos El Roscotte shootdown,

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<v Speaker 1>Carol said he and a small group of military analysts

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<v Speaker 1>had met with top Cuban officials. CNN's Katherine Callaway interviewed

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<v Speaker 1>Carrol to try and make sense of it all. Admiral,

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<v Speaker 1>can you tell me what happened on your trip to Cuba,

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<v Speaker 1>who you spoke with, and what you were told? Then,

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<v Speaker 1>Carol says, we were hosted by the Ministry Defense General

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<v Speaker 1>Rossalis del Toro. We traveled around, inspected Cuban bases, Cuban schools,

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<v Speaker 1>their partially completed nuclear power plant, and so on. In

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<v Speaker 1>long discussions with General Rosales del Toro and his staff,

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<v Speaker 1>the question came up about these overflights from US aircraft,

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<v Speaker 1>not government aircraft, but private airplanes operating out of Miami.

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<v Speaker 1>They asked US what would happen if we shot one

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<v Speaker 1>of those down? We can you know? Carol says he

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<v Speaker 1>interpreted that question from his Cuban hosts as a thinly

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<v Speaker 1>veiled warning. Then Callaway asks, so, when you returned, who

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<v Speaker 1>did you relay this information to? Carol replies, as soon

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<v Speaker 1>as we could make appointments, we discussed the situation with

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<v Speaker 1>members of the State Department and members of the Defense

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<v Speaker 1>Intelligence Agency. The Defense Intelligence Agency THEA is the third

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<v Speaker 1>arm of the foreign intelligence triumvirate in the US government,

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<v Speaker 1>along with the CIA and the National Security Agency. If

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<v Speaker 1>Carol had met with the State Department and the DIA,

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<v Speaker 1>he had delivered the Cuban warning about as high up

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<v Speaker 1>in the American government as you could go. And did

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<v Speaker 1>the State Department and the DiiA take those warnings to heart?

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<v Speaker 1>Did they step in and stop Armanos el Rascote from

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<v Speaker 1>continuing their reckless forays into Cuban airspace? Obviously not, Carrol's

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<v Speaker 1>comments ricochet around Washington d C. Policy circles. This was

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<v Speaker 1>an embarrassing revelation. The Cuban shootdown happened on February twenty fourth.

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<v Speaker 1>Carol's warnings to the State Department and DIA were delivered

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<v Speaker 1>on February twenty third. A prominent Washington insider met with

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<v Speaker 1>the US officials the day before the crisis explicitly warned

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<v Speaker 1>them that the Cubans had lost patients with Armanos el Riscote,

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<v Speaker 1>and his warning was ignored. What began as a Cuban

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<v Speaker 1>atrocity was now transformed into a story about American diplomatic incompetence.

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<v Speaker 1>By February twenty fifth, when Carol spoke with CNN, it's

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<v Speaker 1>clear that this perception had already sunk in. Fidel Castro

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't being invited onto CNN to defend himself, but he

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<v Speaker 1>didn't need to be. He had a rear admiral making

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<v Speaker 1>his case. Does anything about Admiral Carroll and the Cuban

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<v Speaker 1>shootdowns strike you as odd? There are an awful lot

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<v Speaker 1>of coincidences here. First, the Cubans plan a deliberate, murderous

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<v Speaker 1>attack on US citizens flying in international airspace. Second, it

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<v Speaker 1>just so happens that the day before the attack, a

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<v Speaker 1>prominent military insider delivers a stern warning to US officials

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<v Speaker 1>about the possibility of exacs that action. And third, that

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<v Speaker 1>warning frituitously puts that same official the day after the attack,

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<v Speaker 1>in a position to make the Cuban case on one

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<v Speaker 1>of the world's most respected news networks. The timing of

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<v Speaker 1>those three events is a little too perfect, isn't it.

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<v Speaker 1>If you were a public relations firm trying to mute

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<v Speaker 1>the fallout from a very controversial action, that's exactly how

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<v Speaker 1>you'd script it. Have a seemingly neutral expert available right

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<v Speaker 1>away to say I warned them. This is what a

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<v Speaker 1>military counterintelligence analyst named Reg Brown thought in the days

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<v Speaker 1>after the incident. Brown worked on the Latin American desk

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<v Speaker 1>of the Defense Intelligence Agency. His job was to understand

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<v Speaker 1>the ways in which the Cuban intelligence services were trying

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<v Speaker 1>to influence American military operations. His business, in other words,

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<v Speaker 1>was to be alert to the kinds of nuances, subtleties,

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<v Speaker 1>and unexplained co incidences that the rest of US ignore.

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<v Speaker 1>And Brown couldn't shake the feeling that somehow the Cubans

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<v Speaker 1>had orchestrated the whole crisis. It turned out, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>that the Cubans had a source inside Armanos el Roscote,

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<v Speaker 1>a pilot named Juan Pablo RoCE. On the day before

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<v Speaker 1>the attack, Roque had disappeared and resurfaced at Castro's side

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<v Speaker 1>in Havana. Clearly, Roque told his bosses back home that

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<v Speaker 1>Armanos al Riscote had something planned for the twenty fourth.

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<v Speaker 1>That made it very difficult for Brown to imagine that

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<v Speaker 1>the date of the Carol briefing had been chosen by

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<v Speaker 1>chance for maximum public relations impact. The Cubans would want

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<v Speaker 1>their warning delivered the day before, wouldn't they That way,

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<v Speaker 1>the State Department and the DIA couldn't wiggle out of

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<v Speaker 1>the problem by saying that the warning was vague or

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<v Speaker 1>long ago. Carol's words were right in front of them

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<v Speaker 1>on the day the pilots took off from Miami. So

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<v Speaker 1>who ragned that meeting? Brown wondered who picked February twenty third.

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<v Speaker 1>He did some digging, and the name he came up

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<v Speaker 1>with startled him. It was a colleague of his DIA,

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<v Speaker 1>a Cuba expert named Anna Balen Montes. Anna Montes was

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<v Speaker 1>a star. She had been selected repeatedly for promotions and

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<v Speaker 1>special career opportunities, showered with accolades and bonuses. Her reviews

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<v Speaker 1>were glowing. She had come to the DIA from the

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<v Speaker 1>Department of Justice, and in his recommendation One of her

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<v Speaker 1>former supervisors described her as the best employee he had

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<v Speaker 1>ever had. She once got a medal from George Tennant,

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<v Speaker 1>the director of the CIA. Her nickname inside the intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>community was the Queen of Cuba. Weeks past, Brown agonized

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<v Speaker 1>to accuse a colleague of treachery on the basis of

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<v Speaker 1>such semi paranoid speculation. Was an awfully big step, especially

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<v Speaker 1>when the colleague was someone of Monte's stature. Finally, Brown

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<v Speaker 1>made up his mind, taking his suspicions to a DIA

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<v Speaker 1>counterintelligence officer named Scott Carmichael.

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<v Speaker 3>He came over and we walked in the neighborhoods around

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<v Speaker 3>there for a while during lunch hour.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Carmichael talking about his first meeting with Reg Brown.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think it was during that lunch hour. He

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<v Speaker 3>hardly even got to tamatas. I mean, most of it

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<v Speaker 3>was listening to him saying, oh God, he's bringing his hands,

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<v Speaker 3>saying I don't want to do the wrong thing. Yea, yeah, yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Slowly Carmichael drew him out. Brown had more evidence. He

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<v Speaker 1>had written a report in the late nineteen eighties detailing

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<v Speaker 1>the involvement of senior Cuban officials and international drug smuggling.

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<v Speaker 3>He identified specific Cuban senior Cuban officers, including I think

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<v Speaker 3>a general office and some lesser officers who were dirking involved,

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<v Speaker 3>and then provided the specifics I mean whites, the dates,

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<v Speaker 3>the time, to places who did walked home a whole enchilada.

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<v Speaker 1>In a few days before Brown's report was released, the

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<v Speaker 1>Cubans rounded up everyone had mentioned in his investigation, executed

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<v Speaker 1>a number of them, and issued a public denial.

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<v Speaker 3>I wrote one for the fuck there was a league.

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<v Speaker 1>It made REDG. Brown paranoid. In nineteen ninety four, two

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<v Speaker 1>Cuban intelligence officers had defected and told a similar story.

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<v Speaker 1>The Cubans had someone high inside American intelligence. So what

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<v Speaker 1>was he to think? Brown said to Carmichael, didn't he

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<v Speaker 1>have reason to be suspicious? Then he told Carmichael the

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<v Speaker 1>other thing that had happened During the Ermanos al Riscote crisis.

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<v Speaker 1>Montees worked at the DIA's office on Bowling Air Force

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<v Speaker 1>Base in the Anacostia section of Washington, d C. When

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<v Speaker 1>the planes were shot down, she was called into the Pentagon.

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<v Speaker 1>If you were one of the government's leading Cuba experts,

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<v Speaker 1>you were needed at the scene. The shootdown happened on

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<v Speaker 1>a Saturday. The following evening, Brown happened to telephone asking

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<v Speaker 1>for Montes. He sent some woman answered the phone and

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<v Speaker 1>told him that Anna had left. Carmichael says, earlier in

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<v Speaker 1>the day, Montes had gotten a phone call and afterwards

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<v Speaker 1>she'd been agitated. Then she told everyone in the situation

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<v Speaker 1>room that she was tired, that there was nothing going on,

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<v Speaker 1>that she was going home, and Reg.

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<v Speaker 3>Was just absolutely incredulous. This is just so counter to

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<v Speaker 3>our culture that he couldn't even leave it. Everybody understands

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<v Speaker 3>that when a crisis occurs, you're called in because you

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<v Speaker 3>have some expertise you can add add to the decision

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<v Speaker 3>making processes.

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<v Speaker 1>Here, Scott Carmichael starts thumping to make his point, Pentagon, you.

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<v Speaker 3>Were available until you were dismissed. That's it's just understood.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, at somebody at that level calls you in

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<v Speaker 3>because all of a sudden, with North Koreans and launce

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<v Speaker 3>A Michelan San Francisco, you don't just decide to leave

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<v Speaker 3>when you get tired and armored. Everybody understands, and yet

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<v Speaker 3>she did that and was just.

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<v Speaker 1>In Reg Brown's thinking, if Montez really worked for the Cubans,

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<v Speaker 1>they would have been desperate to hear from her. They

0:15:27.236 --> 0:15:29.796
<v Speaker 1>would want to know what was happening in the situation room.

0:15:30.596 --> 0:15:32.596
<v Speaker 1>Did she have a meeting that night with her handler.

0:15:33.356 --> 0:15:35.316
<v Speaker 1>It was all a bit far fetched, which is why

0:15:35.356 --> 0:15:38.956
<v Speaker 1>Brown was so conflicted. But there were Cuban spies. He

0:15:39.036 --> 0:15:42.356
<v Speaker 1>knew that. And here was this woman taking a personal

0:15:42.476 --> 0:15:44.876
<v Speaker 1>phone call and heading out the door in the middle

0:15:44.876 --> 0:15:47.876
<v Speaker 1>of what was, for a Cuba specialist, just about the

0:15:47.916 --> 0:15:51.516
<v Speaker 1>biggest crisis in a generation. And on top of that,

0:15:52.476 --> 0:15:55.076
<v Speaker 1>she's the one who wo had arrange the awfully convenient

0:15:55.156 --> 0:15:59.276
<v Speaker 1>Admiral Carrol briefing. Brown told Carmichael that the Cubans had

0:15:59.276 --> 0:16:01.836
<v Speaker 1>wanted to shoot down one of the Harmanos el Riscotte

0:16:01.916 --> 0:16:05.316
<v Speaker 1>planes for years, but they hadn't because they knew what

0:16:05.356 --> 0:16:08.756
<v Speaker 1>a provocation that would be. It might serve as the excuse,

0:16:08.876 --> 0:16:12.196
<v Speaker 1>you know, States needed to depose Fidel Castro or launch

0:16:12.236 --> 0:16:16.636
<v Speaker 1>an invasion. To the Cubans, it wasn't worth it unless,

0:16:16.876 --> 0:16:19.396
<v Speaker 1>that is, they could figure out some way to turn

0:16:19.476 --> 0:16:21.156
<v Speaker 1>public opinion in their favor.

0:16:21.876 --> 0:16:24.516
<v Speaker 3>And so he looked at that one. Holy shit, I'm

0:16:24.516 --> 0:16:28.076
<v Speaker 3>looking at a kitting color and Dollan's influence operation to

0:16:28.396 --> 0:16:31.316
<v Speaker 3>spin a story, and I asked the one who led

0:16:31.356 --> 0:16:34.996
<v Speaker 3>the effort to me with the adil, Carol, what the

0:16:34.996 --> 0:16:36.156
<v Speaker 3>hell is that all about?

0:16:37.796 --> 0:16:43.796
<v Speaker 1>Months past? Brown persisted. Finally, Scott Carmichael pulled Montez file.

0:16:44.916 --> 0:16:48.396
<v Speaker 1>She had passed her most recent polograph with flying colors.

0:16:48.916 --> 0:16:52.396
<v Speaker 1>She didn't have a secret drinking problem or unexplained sums

0:16:52.436 --> 0:16:55.396
<v Speaker 1>in her bank account. She had no red flags.

0:16:55.916 --> 0:16:58.316
<v Speaker 3>After I had reviewed the security file of a personnel

0:16:58.356 --> 0:17:03.076
<v Speaker 3>file on her, I thought, reg Way off here, this

0:17:03.116 --> 0:17:06.276
<v Speaker 3>woman is like, she's going to be the next director

0:17:06.316 --> 0:17:10.396
<v Speaker 3>of Intelligence from DN. He's just fabulous.

0:17:10.956 --> 0:17:13.476
<v Speaker 1>He knew that in order to justify an investigation on

0:17:13.516 --> 0:17:17.796
<v Speaker 1>the basis of speculation, he had to be meticulous. Reg Brown,

0:17:17.836 --> 0:17:21.796
<v Speaker 1>he said, was coming apart. He had to satisfy Brown's

0:17:21.796 --> 0:17:24.836
<v Speaker 1>suspicions one way or another, as he put it, to

0:17:24.956 --> 0:17:27.596
<v Speaker 1>document the living shit out of everything. Because if word

0:17:27.636 --> 0:17:30.436
<v Speaker 1>got out that Montes was under suspicion, I knew I

0:17:30.476 --> 0:17:36.916
<v Speaker 1>was going to be facing a shit storm. Carmichael called

0:17:36.996 --> 0:17:39.676
<v Speaker 1>monta is in. They met in a conference room at

0:17:39.716 --> 0:17:44.236
<v Speaker 1>Bowling Air Force Base. She was attractive, intelligent, slender, with

0:17:44.396 --> 0:17:49.036
<v Speaker 1>short hair and sharp, almost severe features. Carmichael thought to himself,

0:17:49.636 --> 0:17:51.316
<v Speaker 1>this woman is impressive.

0:17:52.116 --> 0:17:54.116
<v Speaker 3>She sat down. She was sitting like almost texting to

0:17:54.156 --> 0:17:55.036
<v Speaker 3>me about that for away.

0:17:55.476 --> 0:17:58.356
<v Speaker 1>Here Carmichael holds his hands three feet apart.

0:17:59.116 --> 0:18:02.276
<v Speaker 3>Same side of the table, kind of thing, and she

0:18:02.396 --> 0:18:04.956
<v Speaker 3>crossed her legs. I don't think that she did it

0:18:04.956 --> 0:18:06.956
<v Speaker 3>on purpose. I don't think she didn't think she was

0:18:07.036 --> 0:18:12.156
<v Speaker 3>just getting comfortable. Happen to be lame man. She couldn't

0:18:12.196 --> 0:18:16.956
<v Speaker 3>know that. I mean, I like it. I know that

0:18:17.036 --> 0:18:17.836
<v Speaker 3>I glanced down.

0:18:18.396 --> 0:18:20.916
<v Speaker 1>He asked her about the Admiral Carroll meeting. She had

0:18:20.916 --> 0:18:23.876
<v Speaker 1>an answer. It wasn't her idea at all. The son

0:18:23.956 --> 0:18:27.196
<v Speaker 1>of someone she knew at DIA had accompanied Carol to Cuba,

0:18:27.276 --> 0:18:29.316
<v Speaker 1>and she'd gotten a call afterward.

0:18:29.236 --> 0:18:32.156
<v Speaker 3>I know his dad. His dad called me and he said, hey,

0:18:32.236 --> 0:18:34.476
<v Speaker 3>you know, if you want the latest scoop on, you

0:18:34.476 --> 0:18:36.556
<v Speaker 3>should go see the Admiral Carroll. And so I just

0:18:36.836 --> 0:18:39.196
<v Speaker 3>called up Admiral Carroll and we looked at our schedules

0:18:39.196 --> 0:18:41.356
<v Speaker 3>and decided twenty third of February. It was the most

0:18:41.356 --> 0:18:43.036
<v Speaker 3>convenient date that works for both of us, and that

0:18:43.156 --> 0:18:43.476
<v Speaker 3>was it.

0:18:43.876 --> 0:18:46.956
<v Speaker 1>As it turned out, Carmichael knew the DIA employee she

0:18:47.076 --> 0:18:49.556
<v Speaker 1>was talking about He told her that he was going

0:18:49.596 --> 0:18:52.556
<v Speaker 1>to call him up and corroborate her story, and she said,

0:18:52.796 --> 0:18:56.316
<v Speaker 1>please do So what happened with the phone call in

0:18:56.396 --> 0:18:59.796
<v Speaker 1>the situation room, he asked her. She said she didn't

0:18:59.836 --> 0:19:02.876
<v Speaker 1>remember getting a phone call, and to Carmichael, it seemed

0:19:02.876 --> 0:19:05.996
<v Speaker 1>as though she was being honest. It had been a crazy,

0:19:06.076 --> 0:19:09.956
<v Speaker 1>hectic day nine months before. What about leaving early?

0:19:10.356 --> 0:19:12.836
<v Speaker 3>She said, well, yeah, I did leave. Okay, So right

0:19:12.876 --> 0:19:16.156
<v Speaker 3>away she's admitting to that, and she's not denying stuff

0:19:16.556 --> 0:19:19.516
<v Speaker 3>which might be a little suspicious. She said, yeah, I

0:19:19.516 --> 0:19:21.836
<v Speaker 3>did leave early today that day, and she says, you know,

0:19:21.916 --> 0:19:24.676
<v Speaker 3>it was on a Sunday. The cafeterias were closed. I'm

0:19:24.676 --> 0:19:26.716
<v Speaker 3>a very picky eater. I have analogies, so I don't

0:19:26.756 --> 0:19:28.996
<v Speaker 3>eat stuff out of any machines. I got there around

0:19:28.996 --> 0:19:31.876
<v Speaker 3>six o'clock in the morning, about again, case black at night,

0:19:31.956 --> 0:19:34.796
<v Speaker 3>I'm starving to death. Nothing was going on. They didn't

0:19:34.836 --> 0:19:36.796
<v Speaker 3>really need me, so I just decaided I was just

0:19:36.796 --> 0:19:38.716
<v Speaker 3>gonna get out of there, go home and eat something.

0:19:40.396 --> 0:19:43.116
<v Speaker 3>And that rang true to me. I did.

0:19:43.756 --> 0:19:47.276
<v Speaker 1>After the interview, Carmichael set out to double check her answers.

0:19:47.996 --> 0:19:51.196
<v Speaker 1>The date of the briefing really did seem like a coincidence.

0:19:51.756 --> 0:19:54.716
<v Speaker 1>Her friend's son had gone to Cuba with Carol.

0:19:54.836 --> 0:19:57.436
<v Speaker 3>And I learned that, Yeah, she does a aalogy. She's

0:19:57.516 --> 0:19:59.716
<v Speaker 3>very particular about what she eats. I thought, she's there

0:19:59.756 --> 0:20:02.396
<v Speaker 3>in the Pentagon on Sunday. I've been there. The cafterias

0:20:02.396 --> 0:20:05.756
<v Speaker 3>aren't open. She went all day long without eating. She

0:20:05.996 --> 0:20:09.116
<v Speaker 3>went home. I said, well, it kind of makes sense.

0:20:09.796 --> 0:20:14.836
<v Speaker 1>So Carmichael went back to reg Brown and told him

0:20:14.876 --> 0:20:18.596
<v Speaker 1>not to worry. He turned his attention to other matters.

0:20:19.116 --> 0:20:22.916
<v Speaker 1>Anna Montes went back to her office. All was forgotten

0:20:22.996 --> 0:20:26.356
<v Speaker 1>and forgiven until one day in two thousand and one,

0:20:26.876 --> 0:20:30.236
<v Speaker 1>five years later, when it was discovered that every night

0:20:30.756 --> 0:20:34.156
<v Speaker 1>Montes had gone home typed up from memory all of

0:20:34.156 --> 0:20:36.156
<v Speaker 1>the facts and insights she had learned that day at

0:20:36.156 --> 0:20:40.916
<v Speaker 1>work and sent it to her handlers in Havana. From

0:20:41.036 --> 0:20:45.116
<v Speaker 1>the day she joined the Dia, Montes had been a

0:20:45.156 --> 0:20:50.636
<v Speaker 1>Cuban spy. In the classic spy novel The Secret Agent

0:20:50.876 --> 0:20:54.476
<v Speaker 1>is Slippery and Devious were hoodwinked by the brilliance of

0:20:54.476 --> 0:20:58.476
<v Speaker 1>the enemy. That was the way many Cia insiders explained

0:20:58.476 --> 0:21:03.356
<v Speaker 1>the way Florentino as Piaga's revelations. Castro is a genius.

0:21:03.756 --> 0:21:08.196
<v Speaker 1>The agents were brilliant actors in truth, however, the most

0:21:08.276 --> 0:21:13.196
<v Speaker 1>dangerous spies are rarely diabolical. Aldrich Ames, maybe the most

0:21:13.276 --> 0:21:17.436
<v Speaker 1>damaging trader in American history, had mediocre performance reviews, a

0:21:17.516 --> 0:21:20.396
<v Speaker 1>drinking problem, and didn't even try to hide all the

0:21:20.436 --> 0:21:22.756
<v Speaker 1>money he was getting from the Soviet Union for his spying.

0:21:24.516 --> 0:21:28.836
<v Speaker 1>Anna Montes was scarcely any better. Right before she was arrested,

0:21:29.036 --> 0:21:31.516
<v Speaker 1>the DIA found the codes she used to send her

0:21:31.556 --> 0:21:35.836
<v Speaker 1>dispatches to Havana. Where did they find those codes? In

0:21:35.876 --> 0:21:39.236
<v Speaker 1>her purse and in her apartment? She had a short

0:21:39.316 --> 0:21:43.676
<v Speaker 1>wave radio in a shoe box in her closet. Brian Mattel,

0:21:43.996 --> 0:21:48.156
<v Speaker 1>the CIA Cuba specialist who witnessed the Espiaga disaster, knew

0:21:48.196 --> 0:21:50.796
<v Speaker 1>mont as well. He used to work as something called

0:21:50.796 --> 0:21:53.556
<v Speaker 1>a National Intelligence Officer NIO.

0:21:54.276 --> 0:21:56.196
<v Speaker 4>She used to sit across the table from me at

0:21:56.236 --> 0:21:59.836
<v Speaker 4>meetings that I convened when I was INIO. You know,

0:21:59.876 --> 0:22:02.796
<v Speaker 4>I would try to engage her and she would always

0:22:02.796 --> 0:22:06.396
<v Speaker 4>give me these strange reactions when I would try to

0:22:06.436 --> 0:22:08.676
<v Speaker 4>pin her down at some of these meetings that I convened,

0:22:09.196 --> 0:22:11.156
<v Speaker 4>try to pen her down on you know, what do

0:22:11.156 --> 0:22:13.116
<v Speaker 4>you think is infidel what do you think Fidell's motives

0:22:13.116 --> 0:22:16.436
<v Speaker 4>are about this? You know she would fumble, you know,

0:22:16.556 --> 0:22:19.636
<v Speaker 4>she in a retrospect and retrospect, you know, the deer

0:22:19.676 --> 0:22:23.996
<v Speaker 4>with the headlights in his eyes, she she blocked. You know,

0:22:24.036 --> 0:22:26.236
<v Speaker 4>she would even you know, even physically, she would show

0:22:26.236 --> 0:22:28.556
<v Speaker 4>some you know, some kind of reactions that that caused

0:22:28.596 --> 0:22:31.356
<v Speaker 4>me to think, Oh, she is nervous because she's just

0:22:31.516 --> 0:22:33.796
<v Speaker 4>such a terrible analyst. She doesn't know what to say.

0:22:34.916 --> 0:22:38.436
<v Speaker 1>One year later, Lttel says, Montez was accepted into the

0:22:38.476 --> 0:22:43.516
<v Speaker 1>CIA's Distinguished Analyst Program, a research sabbatical available to intelligence

0:22:43.556 --> 0:22:48.516
<v Speaker 1>officers from across the government. Where'd she ask to go? Cuba?

0:22:48.556 --> 0:22:54.476
<v Speaker 4>Of course she went to Cuba funded by this program.

0:22:54.516 --> 0:22:56.156
<v Speaker 4>Can you imagine.

0:22:58.956 --> 0:23:02.356
<v Speaker 1>If you were a Cuban spy trying to conceal your intentions,

0:23:02.636 --> 0:23:06.876
<v Speaker 1>would you request a paid sabbatical in Havana. ATel was

0:23:06.916 --> 0:23:10.956
<v Speaker 1>speaking almost twenty years after it happened, but the brazenness

0:23:10.956 --> 0:23:12.916
<v Speaker 1>of her behavior still astounded him.

0:23:13.636 --> 0:23:18.676
<v Speaker 4>She went to Cuba as a CIA distinguished intelligence and analysts.

0:23:18.756 --> 0:23:20.756
<v Speaker 4>Of course, they were delighted to have her, especially on

0:23:20.836 --> 0:23:24.036
<v Speaker 4>our nickel, and I'm sure that they gave her all

0:23:24.116 --> 0:23:26.236
<v Speaker 4>kinds of clandestine tradecraft.

0:23:25.876 --> 0:23:27.316
<v Speaker 3>Training while she was there.

0:23:27.556 --> 0:23:30.676
<v Speaker 4>I suspect camp rude, but I'm pretty sure she met

0:23:30.716 --> 0:23:34.756
<v Speaker 4>with Fidel. Fidell loved to meet with his principal agents.

0:23:34.796 --> 0:23:36.796
<v Speaker 4>He loved to meet with them, to encourage them, to

0:23:36.836 --> 0:23:40.156
<v Speaker 4>congratulate them, to revel in the success that they were

0:23:40.156 --> 0:23:42.796
<v Speaker 4>having together against against the CIA.

0:23:43.236 --> 0:23:45.996
<v Speaker 1>When Montes came back to the Pentagon, she wrote a

0:23:46.036 --> 0:23:48.876
<v Speaker 1>paper in which she didn't even bother to hide her biases.

0:23:49.876 --> 0:23:53.756
<v Speaker 4>There should have been all kinds of red flags raised

0:23:53.796 --> 0:23:56.436
<v Speaker 4>and gongs that went off when her paper was read

0:23:56.476 --> 0:23:59.796
<v Speaker 4>by her supervisors, because she said things about the Cuban

0:23:59.836 --> 0:24:03.236
<v Speaker 4>military that make absolutely no sense except from their point

0:24:03.236 --> 0:24:03.636
<v Speaker 4>of view.

0:24:04.436 --> 0:24:08.316
<v Speaker 1>But did anyone raise those red flags? Hotel says he

0:24:08.396 --> 0:24:10.356
<v Speaker 1>never once suspected she was a spy.

0:24:10.796 --> 0:24:13.476
<v Speaker 4>On the contrary, there were CIA officers of my rank

0:24:14.156 --> 0:24:16.036
<v Speaker 4>or close to my rank who thought she was the

0:24:16.036 --> 0:24:22.636
<v Speaker 4>best Cuban analyst there was. I never trusted her, but

0:24:22.756 --> 0:24:25.996
<v Speaker 4>for the wrong reasons, and that's one of my great regrets.

0:24:28.076 --> 0:24:31.076
<v Speaker 4>I'm always believed I was convinced that she was a

0:24:31.196 --> 0:24:35.796
<v Speaker 4>terrible analyst on Cuba. Well she was, wasn't she objectively?

0:24:35.836 --> 0:24:38.316
<v Speaker 4>Because she wasn't working for us she was working for.

0:24:40.236 --> 0:24:41.996
<v Speaker 4>But I never connected the dots.

0:24:43.556 --> 0:24:46.676
<v Speaker 1>Nor did anyone else. Anna Montez had a younger brother

0:24:46.756 --> 0:24:50.356
<v Speaker 1>named Tito, who was an FBI agent. He had no idea.

0:24:50.996 --> 0:24:54.236
<v Speaker 1>Montez's sister was also an FBI agent, who in fact,

0:24:54.276 --> 0:24:56.596
<v Speaker 1>played a key role in exposing a ring of Cuban

0:24:56.636 --> 0:25:01.236
<v Speaker 1>spies in Miami. She had no idea. Montes's boyfriend worked

0:25:01.276 --> 0:25:04.276
<v Speaker 1>for the Pentagon as well. His specialty, believe it or not,

0:25:04.556 --> 0:25:08.116
<v Speaker 1>was Latin American intelligence. His job was to go up

0:25:08.116 --> 0:25:13.436
<v Speaker 1>against spies like his girlfriend. He had no idea. When

0:25:13.436 --> 0:25:16.396
<v Speaker 1>Mantes was finally arrested, the chief of her section called

0:25:16.396 --> 0:25:19.916
<v Speaker 1>her coworkers together and told them the news. People started

0:25:19.956 --> 0:25:24.676
<v Speaker 1>crying in disbelief. The DIA had psychologists lined up to

0:25:24.676 --> 0:25:30.596
<v Speaker 1>provide on site counseling services. Her supervisor was devastated. None

0:25:30.636 --> 0:25:34.796
<v Speaker 1>of them had any idea. In her cubicle, she had

0:25:34.796 --> 0:25:38.396
<v Speaker 1>a quotation from Shakespeare's Henry the Fifth taped to her

0:25:38.436 --> 0:25:42.356
<v Speaker 1>wall at eye level for all the world to see.

0:25:42.596 --> 0:25:46.556
<v Speaker 1>The king hath note of all that they intend by

0:25:46.676 --> 0:25:52.476
<v Speaker 1>interception which they dream not of. Or, to put it

0:25:52.516 --> 0:25:55.876
<v Speaker 1>a bit more plainly, the Queen of Cuba takes note

0:25:55.956 --> 0:25:59.476
<v Speaker 1>of all that the US intends by means that all

0:25:59.516 --> 0:26:03.516
<v Speaker 1>around her do not dream of The issue with spies

0:26:03.636 --> 0:26:06.956
<v Speaker 1>is not that there is something brilliant about them. It

0:26:06.996 --> 0:26:10.796
<v Speaker 1>is that there is something wrong with us us. We'll

0:26:10.836 --> 0:26:17.956
<v Speaker 1>be back after this. We're back with more from this

0:26:18.116 --> 0:26:22.756
<v Speaker 1>excerpt of my new book, Talking to Strangers. Over the

0:26:22.756 --> 0:26:26.476
<v Speaker 1>course of his career, the psychologist Tim Levine has conducted

0:26:26.796 --> 0:26:31.196
<v Speaker 1>hundreds of versions of the same simple experiment. He invites

0:26:31.196 --> 0:26:34.516
<v Speaker 1>students to his laboratory and gives them a trivia test.

0:26:35.356 --> 0:26:37.916
<v Speaker 1>What's the highest mountain in Asia? That kind of thing.

0:26:38.516 --> 0:26:42.516
<v Speaker 1>If they answer the questions correctly, they win a cash prize.

0:26:43.076 --> 0:26:45.956
<v Speaker 1>To help them out. They're given a partner, someone they've

0:26:45.996 --> 0:26:49.396
<v Speaker 1>never met before, who is unknown to them, working for Levine.

0:26:50.156 --> 0:26:53.796
<v Speaker 1>There's also an instructor in the room named Rachel. Midway

0:26:53.876 --> 0:26:57.396
<v Speaker 1>through the test, Rachel suddenly gets called away. She leaves

0:26:57.396 --> 0:27:05.436
<v Speaker 1>and goes upstairs. Then the carefully scripted performance begins. The

0:27:05.516 --> 0:27:08.876
<v Speaker 1>partner says, I don't know about you, but I could

0:27:08.956 --> 0:27:11.956
<v Speaker 1>use the money. I think the answers were left right there.

0:27:12.316 --> 0:27:15.556
<v Speaker 1>He points to an envelope lying in plain sight on

0:27:15.596 --> 0:27:17.076
<v Speaker 1>the desk, so it talk.

0:27:16.916 --> 0:27:19.156
<v Speaker 5>To them whether they cheat or not, and then later

0:27:19.196 --> 0:27:21.636
<v Speaker 5>we interview them, asking Digiti.

0:27:21.596 --> 0:27:24.956
<v Speaker 1>This is Tim Levine. He says, in about thirty percent

0:27:25.036 --> 0:27:29.596
<v Speaker 1>of cases, the research subjects do cheat. Levine's theories are

0:27:29.676 --> 0:27:33.476
<v Speaker 1>laid out in his book duped Truth, Default Theory and

0:27:33.516 --> 0:27:36.636
<v Speaker 1>the Social Science of Lying in Deception. If you want

0:27:36.636 --> 0:27:39.876
<v Speaker 1>to understand how deception works, there is no better place

0:27:39.916 --> 0:27:43.196
<v Speaker 1>to start. The number of scholars around the world who

0:27:43.276 --> 0:27:47.116
<v Speaker 1>study human deception is vast. There are more theories about

0:27:47.156 --> 0:27:49.956
<v Speaker 1>why we lie and how to detect those lies than

0:27:49.996 --> 0:27:54.236
<v Speaker 1>there are about the Kennedy assassination. In that crowded field,

0:27:54.556 --> 0:27:59.476
<v Speaker 1>Levine stands out. He has carefully constructed a unified theory

0:27:59.516 --> 0:28:02.436
<v Speaker 1>about deception, and at the core of that theory are

0:28:02.476 --> 0:28:05.716
<v Speaker 1>the insights he gained from that first trivia quiz study.

0:28:06.876 --> 0:28:10.396
<v Speaker 1>I watched videotape of a dozen or so post experiment

0:28:10.516 --> 0:28:13.836
<v Speaker 1>interviews with Levine in his office the University of Alabama

0:28:13.916 --> 0:28:17.916
<v Speaker 1>in Birmingham. Because of privacy regulations, we can't play them

0:28:17.996 --> 0:28:20.596
<v Speaker 1>for you here, but we're going to re enact them.

0:28:21.316 --> 0:28:25.956
<v Speaker 1>Here's the first. The interviewer and the subject, a slightly

0:28:26.036 --> 0:28:29.196
<v Speaker 1>spaced out young man. Let's call him Philip.

0:28:29.316 --> 0:28:32.396
<v Speaker 6>All right, So have you played trivial pursuit games before,

0:28:33.596 --> 0:28:36.796
<v Speaker 6>not very much, but I think I have. Okay, So

0:28:36.836 --> 0:28:38.876
<v Speaker 6>in the current game, did you find the questions difficult?

0:28:39.956 --> 0:28:41.436
<v Speaker 3>Yes? Some were?

0:28:42.356 --> 0:28:44.476
<v Speaker 6>Yes, yes, some were.

0:28:44.876 --> 0:28:46.316
<v Speaker 3>I was like, whoa, what is that?

0:28:47.716 --> 0:28:49.396
<v Speaker 6>If you would scale them on one to ten? If

0:28:49.476 --> 0:28:51.556
<v Speaker 6>one was easy and ten was difficult, where do you

0:28:51.556 --> 0:28:52.356
<v Speaker 6>think you would put them?

0:28:53.116 --> 0:28:55.076
<v Speaker 4>I would put them an eight and an eight.

0:28:55.276 --> 0:28:56.396
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, they're pretty tricky.

0:28:57.316 --> 0:28:59.796
<v Speaker 1>Philip is then told that he and his partner did

0:28:59.916 --> 0:29:03.796
<v Speaker 1>very well in the test. The interviewer asked him why.

0:29:04.436 --> 0:29:10.516
<v Speaker 6>Teamwork, teamwork? Yeah, okay, all right, So now I called

0:29:10.596 --> 0:29:12.916
<v Speaker 6>Rachel out of the room briefly. When she was gone,

0:29:13.076 --> 0:29:13.676
<v Speaker 6>did you cheat?

0:29:14.916 --> 0:29:16.436
<v Speaker 4>I guess no.

0:29:17.116 --> 0:29:18.036
<v Speaker 1>Philip looks away.

0:29:18.596 --> 0:29:19.516
<v Speaker 6>Are you telling the truth?

0:29:20.156 --> 0:29:20.516
<v Speaker 3>Yes?

0:29:21.036 --> 0:29:23.996
<v Speaker 6>Okay. So when I interview your partner and I ask Kurt,

0:29:24.076 --> 0:29:25.076
<v Speaker 6>what is she going to say?

0:29:25.476 --> 0:29:28.956
<v Speaker 1>At this point, there's an uncomfortable silence, as if the

0:29:28.956 --> 0:29:32.236
<v Speaker 1>student is trying to get his story straight, He's obviously

0:29:32.276 --> 0:29:37.156
<v Speaker 1>thinking very hard. Levine said no.

0:29:36.236 --> 0:29:40.956
<v Speaker 6>No, yeah, okay, all right, Well that's all I need

0:29:40.956 --> 0:29:41.236
<v Speaker 6>from you.

0:29:42.316 --> 0:29:46.276
<v Speaker 1>Is Philip telling the truth. Levine has shown the Philip

0:29:46.356 --> 0:29:50.316
<v Speaker 1>videotape to hundreds of people, and nearly every viewer correctly

0:29:50.356 --> 0:29:55.276
<v Speaker 1>pegs Philip as a cheater. As the partner confirmed to Levine,

0:29:55.516 --> 0:29:59.236
<v Speaker 1>Philip looked inside the answer filled envelope the minute Rachel

0:29:59.316 --> 0:30:02.676
<v Speaker 1>left the room. In his exit interview, he lied. And

0:30:02.716 --> 0:30:03.596
<v Speaker 1>it's obvious.

0:30:04.196 --> 0:30:04.716
<v Speaker 3>That's so like.

0:30:04.756 --> 0:30:08.516
<v Speaker 7>Everybody gets a sky right, Yeah, a cheater. He is

0:30:08.636 --> 0:30:18.156
<v Speaker 7>no conviction, right. She can't even keep a straight face, right.

0:30:18.756 --> 0:30:22.356
<v Speaker 1>Philip was easy, But the more tapes we looked at,

0:30:22.556 --> 0:30:25.796
<v Speaker 1>the harder it got. Here's the second case. Let's call

0:30:25.876 --> 0:30:30.516
<v Speaker 1>him Lucas. He was handsome, articulate, confident. Here he is

0:30:30.516 --> 0:30:31.636
<v Speaker 1>talking to the interviewer.

0:30:32.396 --> 0:30:34.076
<v Speaker 6>So I have to ask, when Rachel left the room,

0:30:34.116 --> 0:30:34.996
<v Speaker 6>did I he cheating a card?

0:30:35.476 --> 0:30:35.516
<v Speaker 4>No?

0:30:36.716 --> 0:30:37.716
<v Speaker 6>Are you telling me the truth?

0:30:38.076 --> 0:30:38.396
<v Speaker 3>Yes?

0:30:38.556 --> 0:30:38.876
<v Speaker 4>I am.

0:30:39.436 --> 0:30:40.956
<v Speaker 6>When I interview your partner and I ask her the

0:30:40.996 --> 0:30:42.836
<v Speaker 6>same question, what do you think she's gonna say?

0:30:43.236 --> 0:30:45.236
<v Speaker 3>Same thing? Yeah?

0:30:46.156 --> 0:30:50.116
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, he is good. It's everybody believes him, Levine said.

0:30:50.436 --> 0:30:54.676
<v Speaker 1>I believed him. Lucas was lying. Levine and I spent

0:30:54.716 --> 0:30:57.756
<v Speaker 1>the better part of the morning watching his trivia quiz videotapes.

0:30:58.316 --> 0:31:00.756
<v Speaker 1>By the end, I was ready to throw up my hands.

0:31:01.156 --> 0:31:04.076
<v Speaker 1>I had no idea what to make of anyone. The

0:31:04.116 --> 0:31:06.716
<v Speaker 1>point of Levine's research was to try and answer one

0:31:06.756 --> 0:31:09.996
<v Speaker 1>of the biggest puzzles in human psychology, Why are we

0:31:10.076 --> 0:31:13.676
<v Speaker 1>so bad at detecting lies? You'd think would be good

0:31:13.716 --> 0:31:16.796
<v Speaker 1>at it. Logic says, it would be very useful for

0:31:16.916 --> 0:31:20.876
<v Speaker 1>human beings to know when they're being deceived. Evolution over

0:31:20.956 --> 0:31:24.356
<v Speaker 1>many millions of years should have favored people with the

0:31:24.436 --> 0:31:27.236
<v Speaker 1>ability to pick up on the subtle signs of deception,

0:31:27.636 --> 0:31:32.036
<v Speaker 1>but it hasn't. In one iteration of his experiment, Levine

0:31:32.076 --> 0:31:35.636
<v Speaker 1>divided his tapes in half, twenty two liars and twenty

0:31:35.636 --> 0:31:39.876
<v Speaker 1>two truth tellers. On average, the people watching the videos

0:31:39.956 --> 0:31:43.516
<v Speaker 1>correctly identified the liars fifty six percent of the time.

0:31:44.436 --> 0:31:47.716
<v Speaker 1>Other psychologists have tried similar versions of the same experiment,

0:31:48.236 --> 0:31:52.596
<v Speaker 1>The average for all of them fifty four percent. Just

0:31:52.796 --> 0:31:58.076
<v Speaker 1>About everyone is terrible, police officers, judges, therapists, even CIA

0:31:58.196 --> 0:32:05.156
<v Speaker 1>officers running big spy networks. Every one why Tim Levine's

0:32:05.156 --> 0:32:07.876
<v Speaker 1>answer is called truth default theory.

0:32:07.836 --> 0:32:08.436
<v Speaker 3>Or t d T.

0:32:09.476 --> 0:32:11.796
<v Speaker 1>Levine's theory started with an insight that came from one

0:32:11.796 --> 0:32:15.716
<v Speaker 1>of his graduate students. He's soon park. It was right

0:32:15.796 --> 0:32:18.396
<v Speaker 1>at the beginning of Levine's research, when he was as

0:32:18.396 --> 0:32:21.036
<v Speaker 1>baffled as the rest of his profession about why we

0:32:21.076 --> 0:32:23.556
<v Speaker 1>are all so bad at something that, by rights, we

0:32:23.596 --> 0:32:24.476
<v Speaker 1>should be good at.

0:32:24.676 --> 0:32:31.276
<v Speaker 5>Her big insight, Well, first one was in the fifty

0:32:31.316 --> 0:32:36.716
<v Speaker 5>four percent deception accuracy thing that's averaging across trust and lies,

0:32:37.556 --> 0:32:40.876
<v Speaker 5>and you come to a very different understanding if you

0:32:40.956 --> 0:32:44.116
<v Speaker 5>break out truth how much people are right on truth

0:32:45.356 --> 0:32:47.236
<v Speaker 5>and how much people are right on lies.

0:32:48.316 --> 0:32:51.276
<v Speaker 1>What he means is this, If I tell you that

0:32:51.356 --> 0:32:55.196
<v Speaker 1>your accuracy rate on Levine's videos is right around fifty percent,

0:32:55.676 --> 0:32:58.116
<v Speaker 1>the natural assumption is to think that you are just

0:32:58.236 --> 0:33:01.396
<v Speaker 1>randomly guessing, that you have no idea what you're doing.

0:33:02.116 --> 0:33:06.796
<v Speaker 1>But Park's observation was that's not true. We're much better

0:33:06.836 --> 0:33:09.716
<v Speaker 1>than chance at correctly identifying the student who are telling

0:33:09.796 --> 0:33:13.636
<v Speaker 1>the truth, but we're much worse than chance at correctly

0:33:13.676 --> 0:33:17.356
<v Speaker 1>identifying the students who are lying. We go through all

0:33:17.356 --> 0:33:20.236
<v Speaker 1>those videos and we guess true true, true, which means

0:33:20.236 --> 0:33:22.996
<v Speaker 1>we get most of the truthful interviews right and most

0:33:22.996 --> 0:33:26.236
<v Speaker 1>of the liars wrong. We have a default to truth.

0:33:26.956 --> 0:33:29.796
<v Speaker 1>Our operating assumption is that the people that we're dealing

0:33:29.836 --> 0:33:34.356
<v Speaker 1>with are honest. Levine says his own experiment is an

0:33:34.436 --> 0:33:38.676
<v Speaker 1>almost perfect illustration of this phenomenon. He invites people to

0:33:38.716 --> 0:33:42.436
<v Speaker 1>play a trivia game for money. Suddenly the instructor is

0:33:42.476 --> 0:33:44.876
<v Speaker 1>called out of the room and she just happens to

0:33:44.956 --> 0:33:47.156
<v Speaker 1>leave the answers to the test in plain view on

0:33:47.196 --> 0:33:51.636
<v Speaker 1>her desk. Levine says that logically the subject should roll

0:33:51.676 --> 0:33:55.236
<v Speaker 1>their eyes at this point. They're college students, they're not stupid.

0:33:55.796 --> 0:33:59.116
<v Speaker 1>They've signed up for a psychological experiment. They're given a

0:33:59.196 --> 0:34:02.116
<v Speaker 1>partner whom they've never met, who is egging them on

0:34:02.156 --> 0:34:04.596
<v Speaker 1>to cheat. You would think that they might be even

0:34:04.636 --> 0:34:07.716
<v Speaker 1>a little suspicious that things are not as they seem.

0:34:08.196 --> 0:34:13.836
<v Speaker 5>But no, so they catch that they leaving the room

0:34:14.356 --> 0:34:16.636
<v Speaker 5>might be a set up. I think they almost never

0:34:16.716 --> 0:34:18.276
<v Speaker 5>catch as that their partners.

0:34:18.676 --> 0:34:23.876
<v Speaker 7>A suite I see, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

0:34:23.956 --> 0:34:27.196
<v Speaker 3>So it's weird. It's interesting what they suspect. So they

0:34:27.276 --> 0:34:28.756
<v Speaker 3>think that there might be hidden gaps.

0:34:29.916 --> 0:34:31.556
<v Speaker 5>Yeah right, they think it might be a set up,

0:34:31.596 --> 0:34:33.036
<v Speaker 5>because insurements are set.

0:34:32.916 --> 0:34:36.916
<v Speaker 1>Ups, right, But this nice person they're talking and chatting to,

0:34:37.636 --> 0:34:41.716
<v Speaker 1>they never question it. To snap out of truth default

0:34:41.756 --> 0:34:46.436
<v Speaker 1>mode requires what Levine calls a trigger. A trigger is

0:34:46.476 --> 0:34:49.516
<v Speaker 1>not the same as a suspicion or the first sliver

0:34:49.596 --> 0:34:53.356
<v Speaker 1>of doubt. We fall out of truth default mode only

0:34:53.396 --> 0:34:58.396
<v Speaker 1>when the case against our initial assumption becomes definitive. We

0:34:58.476 --> 0:35:02.196
<v Speaker 1>do not behave. In other words, like sober minded scientists

0:35:02.396 --> 0:35:05.596
<v Speaker 1>slowly gathering evidence of the truth or falsity of something

0:35:05.916 --> 0:35:10.156
<v Speaker 1>before reaching a conclusion, we do the opposite. We start

0:35:10.236 --> 0:35:14.196
<v Speaker 1>by believing, and we stop believing only when our doubts

0:35:14.236 --> 0:35:17.196
<v Speaker 1>and misgivings rise to the point where we could no

0:35:17.276 --> 0:35:21.636
<v Speaker 1>longer explain them away. This proposition sounds at first that

0:35:21.756 --> 0:35:24.596
<v Speaker 1>the kind of hair splitting that social scientists loved to

0:35:24.676 --> 0:35:29.476
<v Speaker 1>engage in. It is not. It is a profound point

0:35:29.636 --> 0:35:34.476
<v Speaker 1>that explains a lot of otherwise puzzling behavior. Consider, for example,

0:35:34.676 --> 0:35:37.436
<v Speaker 1>one of the most famous findings in all of psychology,

0:35:37.956 --> 0:35:43.556
<v Speaker 1>Stanley Milgram's Obedience Experiment. In nineteen sixty one, Milgram recruited

0:35:43.636 --> 0:35:46.356
<v Speaker 1>volunteers from New Haven to take part in what he

0:35:46.476 --> 0:35:51.036
<v Speaker 1>said was a memory experiment. Each volunteer was met by

0:35:51.036 --> 0:35:55.236
<v Speaker 1>a somber, imposing young man named John Williams, who explained

0:35:55.236 --> 0:35:56.916
<v Speaker 1>that they were going to play the role of teacher

0:35:57.196 --> 0:36:02.556
<v Speaker 1>in the experiment. Williams introduced them to another volunteer, a pleasant,

0:36:02.636 --> 0:36:06.636
<v Speaker 1>middle aged man named mister Wallace. Mister Wallace, they were told,

0:36:06.956 --> 0:36:10.076
<v Speaker 1>was to be the learner. He was in an adjoining

0:36:10.156 --> 0:36:14.516
<v Speaker 1>room wired to a complicated apparatus capable of delivering electrical

0:36:14.556 --> 0:36:18.156
<v Speaker 1>shocks up to four hundred and fifty volts. If you're

0:36:18.196 --> 0:36:20.836
<v Speaker 1>curious about what four hundred and fifty volts feels like,

0:36:21.396 --> 0:36:23.756
<v Speaker 1>it's just shy of the amount of electrical shock that

0:36:23.876 --> 0:36:28.236
<v Speaker 1>leaves tissue damage. The teacher volunteer was instructed to give

0:36:28.276 --> 0:36:31.396
<v Speaker 1>the learner a series of memory tasks, and each time

0:36:31.436 --> 0:36:34.556
<v Speaker 1>the learner failed, the volunteer was to punish him with

0:36:34.636 --> 0:36:37.876
<v Speaker 1>an ever greater electrical shock in order to see whether

0:36:37.916 --> 0:36:42.396
<v Speaker 1>the threat of punishment affected someone's ability to perform memory tasks.

0:36:43.156 --> 0:36:47.516
<v Speaker 1>As the shocks escalated, Wallace would cry out in pain,

0:36:48.156 --> 0:36:53.196
<v Speaker 1>and ultimately he started hammering on the walls. But if

0:36:53.236 --> 0:36:58.116
<v Speaker 1>the teacher waivered, the imposing instructor would urge them on,

0:36:59.836 --> 0:37:04.556
<v Speaker 1>please continue. The experiment requires that you continue. It is

0:37:04.596 --> 0:37:08.596
<v Speaker 1>absolutely essential that you continue. You have no other choice.

0:37:09.116 --> 0:37:12.636
<v Speaker 1>It must go on. The reason the Milgrim experiment is

0:37:12.676 --> 0:37:16.196
<v Speaker 1>so famous is that virtually all of the volunteers complied.

0:37:17.116 --> 0:37:21.076
<v Speaker 1>Sixty five percent ended up administering the maximum dose to

0:37:21.116 --> 0:37:24.196
<v Speaker 1>the hapless learner. In the wake of the Second World

0:37:24.196 --> 0:37:27.116
<v Speaker 1>War and the revelations about what German guards had been

0:37:27.236 --> 0:37:31.116
<v Speaker 1>ordered to do in the Nazi concentration camps. Milgram's findings

0:37:31.196 --> 0:37:35.276
<v Speaker 1>caused a sensation, But to Levine, there's a second lesson

0:37:35.316 --> 0:37:39.396
<v Speaker 1>to the experiment. The volunteer shows up and meets the

0:37:39.436 --> 0:37:43.236
<v Speaker 1>imposing young John Williams. He was actually a local high

0:37:43.236 --> 0:37:48.556
<v Speaker 1>school biology teacher, chosen, in Milgram's words, because he was technical,

0:37:48.636 --> 0:37:51.636
<v Speaker 1>looking and dry, the type you would later see on

0:37:51.716 --> 0:37:56.156
<v Speaker 1>television in connection with the Space Program. Everything william said

0:37:56.236 --> 0:37:59.636
<v Speaker 1>during the experiment had been memorized from a script written

0:37:59.716 --> 0:38:03.916
<v Speaker 1>by Milgram himself. Mister Wallace was in fact a man

0:38:03.996 --> 0:38:07.596
<v Speaker 1>named Jim McDonough. He worked for the railroad. Molgram liked

0:38:07.676 --> 0:38:10.476
<v Speaker 1>him for the part of victim because he was mild

0:38:10.636 --> 0:38:15.076
<v Speaker 1>and submissive. His cries of agony were taped and played

0:38:15.116 --> 0:38:20.076
<v Speaker 1>over a loudspeaker. The experiment was a little amateur theatrical production,

0:38:20.756 --> 0:38:24.996
<v Speaker 1>and the word amateur here is crucial. The Milgrim experiment

0:38:25.316 --> 0:38:29.116
<v Speaker 1>was not produced for a Broadway stage. Mister Wallace, by

0:38:29.156 --> 0:38:33.716
<v Speaker 1>Mogram's own description, was a terrible actor, and everything about

0:38:33.756 --> 0:38:37.036
<v Speaker 1>the experiment was, to put it mildly, more than a

0:38:37.076 --> 0:38:41.996
<v Speaker 1>little far fetched. The electric shock machine didn't actually give shocks.

0:38:42.596 --> 0:38:45.396
<v Speaker 1>More than one participant saw the loud speaker in the

0:38:45.436 --> 0:38:49.356
<v Speaker 1>corner and wondered why Wallace's cries were coming from there,

0:38:50.196 --> 0:38:52.396
<v Speaker 1>not from behind the door to the room where Wallace

0:38:52.476 --> 0:38:55.996
<v Speaker 1>was strapped in, and if the purpose of the experiment

0:38:56.116 --> 0:39:00.236
<v Speaker 1>was to measure learning wyner, did William spend the entire

0:39:00.316 --> 0:39:03.356
<v Speaker 1>time with the teacher and not behind the door with

0:39:03.436 --> 0:39:06.756
<v Speaker 1>the learner. Didn't that make it obvious that what he

0:39:06.836 --> 0:39:10.596
<v Speaker 1>really wanted to do was observe the pre inflicting the pain,

0:39:11.196 --> 0:39:15.116
<v Speaker 1>not the person receiving the pain. As hoaxes go, the

0:39:15.196 --> 0:39:20.636
<v Speaker 1>Milgram experiment was pretty transparent, and just as with Levine's

0:39:20.636 --> 0:39:25.156
<v Speaker 1>trivia test, people fell for it. They defaulted to truth.

0:39:26.596 --> 0:39:29.996
<v Speaker 1>As one subject wrote to Mogram in a follow up questionnaire,

0:39:30.556 --> 0:39:34.316
<v Speaker 1>I actually checked the death notices in the New Haven

0:39:34.436 --> 0:39:37.756
<v Speaker 1>Register for at least two weeks after the experiment to

0:39:37.796 --> 0:39:40.556
<v Speaker 1>see if I had been involved and a contributing factor

0:39:40.676 --> 0:39:43.916
<v Speaker 1>in the death of the so called learner. I was

0:39:44.036 --> 0:39:47.316
<v Speaker 1>very relieved that his name did not appear another road.

0:39:48.276 --> 0:39:51.676
<v Speaker 1>Believe me, when no response came from mister Wallace with

0:39:51.716 --> 0:39:55.396
<v Speaker 1>the stronger voltage, I really believe the man was probably dead.

0:39:56.876 --> 0:40:01.276
<v Speaker 1>These are adults who were apparently convinced that a prestigious

0:40:01.396 --> 0:40:05.916
<v Speaker 1>institution of higher learning could run a possibly lethal torture

0:40:05.956 --> 0:40:10.796
<v Speaker 1>experiment in one of its basements. The experiment left such

0:40:10.836 --> 0:40:13.436
<v Speaker 1>an effect on me. Another wrote that I spent the

0:40:13.556 --> 0:40:16.396
<v Speaker 1>night in a cold sweat and nightmares because of the

0:40:16.396 --> 0:40:18.316
<v Speaker 1>fear that I might have killed that man in the chair.

0:40:19.276 --> 0:40:24.316
<v Speaker 1>But here's the crucial detail. Milgram's subjects weren't hopelessly gullible.

0:40:24.716 --> 0:40:28.876
<v Speaker 1>They had doubts, lots of doubts. In her fascinating history

0:40:28.876 --> 0:40:33.516
<v Speaker 1>of Milgram's obedience experiments, Behind the Shock Machine, Geina Perry

0:40:33.556 --> 0:40:37.396
<v Speaker 1>interviews a retired too maker named Joe Demo, who was

0:40:37.436 --> 0:40:41.516
<v Speaker 1>one of Milgram's original subjects. I thought this is bizarre,

0:40:42.116 --> 0:40:46.636
<v Speaker 1>Demo told Perry. Demo became convinced that Wallace was faking it.

0:40:47.596 --> 0:40:49.916
<v Speaker 1>But then mister Wallace came out of the locked room

0:40:49.956 --> 0:40:52.156
<v Speaker 1>at the end of the experiment and put on a

0:40:52.196 --> 0:40:57.836
<v Speaker 1>little act. He looked, Demo remembers, haggard and emotional. He

0:40:57.916 --> 0:41:00.796
<v Speaker 1>came in with a handkerchief in his hand, wiping his face.

0:41:01.476 --> 0:41:03.276
<v Speaker 1>He came up to me and he offered his hand

0:41:03.356 --> 0:41:05.836
<v Speaker 1>to shake hands with me, and he said I want

0:41:05.876 --> 0:41:08.796
<v Speaker 1>to thank you for stopping it. When he came in,

0:41:08.956 --> 0:41:14.636
<v Speaker 1>I thought, Wow, maybe it really was true. Demo was

0:41:14.756 --> 0:41:17.716
<v Speaker 1>pretty sure that he was being lied to. But all

0:41:17.756 --> 0:41:20.036
<v Speaker 1>it took was for one of the liars to extend

0:41:20.116 --> 0:41:23.836
<v Speaker 1>the pretense a little longer, look a little upset, and

0:41:23.916 --> 0:41:27.956
<v Speaker 1>mop his brow with a handkerchief, and Demo folded his cards.

0:41:29.396 --> 0:41:32.996
<v Speaker 1>Here are the full statistics from the Milgrim experiment. Fifty

0:41:33.036 --> 0:41:36.436
<v Speaker 1>six point one percent I fully believed the learner was

0:41:36.476 --> 0:41:42.036
<v Speaker 1>getting painful shocks. Twenty four percent, although I had some doubts,

0:41:42.796 --> 0:41:47.036
<v Speaker 1>I believe the learner was probably getting the shocks six

0:41:47.076 --> 0:41:50.836
<v Speaker 1>point one percent. I just wasn't sure whether the learner

0:41:50.956 --> 0:41:54.476
<v Speaker 1>was getting the shocks or not. Eleven point four percent.

0:41:55.396 --> 0:41:59.476
<v Speaker 1>Although I had some doubts, I thought the learner was

0:41:59.516 --> 0:42:04.236
<v Speaker 1>probably not getting the shocks. Two point four percent. I

0:42:04.356 --> 0:42:08.636
<v Speaker 1>was certain the learner was not getting the shocks. Over

0:42:09.116 --> 0:42:12.876
<v Speaker 1>forty percent of the volunteers picked up on something odd,

0:42:13.356 --> 0:42:16.796
<v Speaker 1>something that suggested the experiment was not what it seemed,

0:42:17.676 --> 0:42:20.356
<v Speaker 1>But those doubts just weren't enough to trigger them out

0:42:20.356 --> 0:42:25.636
<v Speaker 1>of truth. Default. That's Levine's point. You believe someone not

0:42:25.876 --> 0:42:28.796
<v Speaker 1>because you have no doubts about them. Belief is not

0:42:28.916 --> 0:42:32.876
<v Speaker 1>the absence of doubt. You believe someone because you don't

0:42:32.916 --> 0:42:36.916
<v Speaker 1>have enough doubts about them. Just think about how many

0:42:36.916 --> 0:42:40.756
<v Speaker 1>times you have criticized someone else in hindsight for their

0:42:40.796 --> 0:42:44.516
<v Speaker 1>failure to spot a liar. You should have known there

0:42:44.516 --> 0:42:48.196
<v Speaker 1>were all kinds of red flags you had doubts. Levine

0:42:48.236 --> 0:42:50.996
<v Speaker 1>would say, that's the wrong way to think about what happened.

0:42:51.676 --> 0:42:55.956
<v Speaker 1>The right question is were there enough red flags to

0:42:55.996 --> 0:42:59.596
<v Speaker 1>push you over the threshold of belief. If there weren't,

0:43:00.156 --> 0:43:03.636
<v Speaker 1>then by defaulting to truth, you were only being human

0:43:05.156 --> 0:43:13.116
<v Speaker 1>more After this, we're back with chapter three of Talking

0:43:13.116 --> 0:43:19.236
<v Speaker 1>to Strangers. Anna Berlin Montes grew up in the affluent

0:43:19.316 --> 0:43:24.036
<v Speaker 1>suburbs of Baltimore. Her father was a psychiatrist. She attended

0:43:24.036 --> 0:43:27.596
<v Speaker 1>the University of Virginia, then received a master's degree in

0:43:27.636 --> 0:43:32.436
<v Speaker 1>foreign affairs from Johns Hopkins University. She was a passionate

0:43:32.476 --> 0:43:36.756
<v Speaker 1>supporter of the Marxist Sandinista government in Nicaragua, which the

0:43:36.876 --> 0:43:40.716
<v Speaker 1>US government was then working to overthrow, and her activism

0:43:40.796 --> 0:43:46.236
<v Speaker 1>attracted the attention of a recruiter for Cuban intelligence. In

0:43:46.316 --> 0:43:49.236
<v Speaker 1>nineteen eighty five, she made a secret visit to Havana.

0:43:50.316 --> 0:43:53.196
<v Speaker 1>Her new compatriots encouraged her to apply for work in

0:43:53.196 --> 0:43:57.876
<v Speaker 1>the US intelligence community. That same year, she joined the DIA,

0:43:58.276 --> 0:44:02.556
<v Speaker 1>and from there her assent was swift. Montes arrived at

0:44:02.556 --> 0:44:05.396
<v Speaker 1>her office first thing in the morning, ate lunch at

0:44:05.396 --> 0:44:08.756
<v Speaker 1>her desk, and kept to herself. She lived alone in

0:44:08.796 --> 0:44:12.476
<v Speaker 1>a two bedroom condo in the Cleveland Park neighborhood of Washington.

0:44:13.156 --> 0:44:17.716
<v Speaker 1>She never married. In the course of his investigation, Scott Carmichael,

0:44:17.876 --> 0:44:23.436
<v Speaker 1>the DIA counterintelligence officer, collected every adjective used by Montes's

0:44:23.476 --> 0:44:29.756
<v Speaker 1>co workers to describe her. It is an impressive list, shy, quiet,

0:44:29.956 --> 0:44:36.876
<v Speaker 1>aloof cool, independent, self reliant, standoffish, intelligent, serious, dedicated, focused,

0:44:36.876 --> 0:44:45.556
<v Speaker 1>hard working, sharp, quick, manipulative, venomous, unsociable, ambitious, charming, confident, businesslike,

0:44:45.676 --> 0:44:53.156
<v Speaker 1>no nonsense, assertive, deliberate, calm, mature, unflappable, capable, and competent.

0:44:54.756 --> 0:44:57.756
<v Speaker 1>Anna Montes assumed that the reason for her meeting with

0:44:57.836 --> 0:45:01.236
<v Speaker 1>Carmichael was that he was performing a routine security check.

0:45:02.036 --> 0:45:06.436
<v Speaker 1>All intelligence officers are periodically vetted so that they can

0:45:06.476 --> 0:45:10.636
<v Speaker 1>continue to hold a security clearance. She was presque because.

0:45:10.436 --> 0:45:12.916
<v Speaker 3>When she first came in, she started blowing off, you know,

0:45:13.076 --> 0:45:16.076
<v Speaker 3>by telling me and it was true. She had just

0:45:16.156 --> 0:45:18.436
<v Speaker 3>been named as an acting division chief. She had a

0:45:18.476 --> 0:45:20.996
<v Speaker 3>ton of responsibilities and meetings and things to do, and

0:45:21.076 --> 0:45:22.316
<v Speaker 3>she just didn't have a lot of time.

0:45:22.556 --> 0:45:26.276
<v Speaker 1>Carmichael is a disarmingly boyish man with fair hair and

0:45:26.316 --> 0:45:30.316
<v Speaker 1>a substantial stomach. He looks, by his own estimation, like

0:45:30.396 --> 0:45:33.996
<v Speaker 1>the late comedian and actor Chris Farley. She must have

0:45:34.076 --> 0:45:35.876
<v Speaker 1>thought she could bully him.

0:45:35.956 --> 0:45:37.756
<v Speaker 3>And so I just dealt with the way you normally do.

0:45:37.836 --> 0:45:39.396
<v Speaker 3>The first time, you just kind of ignore it, just

0:45:39.436 --> 0:45:41.636
<v Speaker 3>acknowledge it. I mean, the first thing you use, you acknowledge, say,

0:45:41.676 --> 0:45:44.516
<v Speaker 3>oh I understand, yeah, I heard that. That congratulation's great,

0:45:44.676 --> 0:45:46.196
<v Speaker 3>I understand. You got a living in amount of time.

0:45:46.276 --> 0:45:47.676
<v Speaker 3>And then you just kind of ignore it, because if

0:45:47.716 --> 0:45:49.596
<v Speaker 3>it takes you twelve days, it takes twelve days. You

0:45:49.596 --> 0:45:52.476
<v Speaker 3>don't let him go. But then she hit me with

0:45:52.516 --> 0:45:54.756
<v Speaker 3>it again, and she really me appointed it. I mean,

0:45:54.796 --> 0:45:58.116
<v Speaker 3>I hadn't settled in yet, and she said, oh, but seriously,

0:45:58.156 --> 0:45:59.796
<v Speaker 3>I got to leap by two or something like that

0:46:01.196 --> 0:46:03.636
<v Speaker 3>because I got all these things to do, and I'm like,

0:46:04.476 --> 0:46:06.796
<v Speaker 3>what the fuck? You know? I asked what I'm thinking?

0:46:07.436 --> 0:46:09.476
<v Speaker 3>And so when she did that, I lost I lose

0:46:09.516 --> 0:46:12.796
<v Speaker 3>my temper, but I lost my patience. That's why I

0:46:12.836 --> 0:46:15.076
<v Speaker 3>hit her. Be twenty eyes look on, I have reasons

0:46:15.116 --> 0:46:16.956
<v Speaker 3>to suspect that you might be involved in the car

0:46:17.076 --> 0:46:18.996
<v Speaker 3>and velo and simple as operational. We need to sit

0:46:19.036 --> 0:46:19.836
<v Speaker 3>down and talk about this.

0:46:20.876 --> 0:46:23.756
<v Speaker 1>Montes had been by that point a Cuban spy for

0:46:23.836 --> 0:46:27.436
<v Speaker 1>nearly her entire government career. She had met with her

0:46:27.436 --> 0:46:31.916
<v Speaker 1>handlers at least three hundred times, handing over so many

0:46:31.956 --> 0:46:34.396
<v Speaker 1>secrets that she ranks as one of the most damaging

0:46:34.436 --> 0:46:38.676
<v Speaker 1>spies in US history. She had secretly visited Cuba on

0:46:38.756 --> 0:46:42.716
<v Speaker 1>several occasions. After her arrest, it was discovered that Fidel

0:46:42.796 --> 0:46:47.076
<v Speaker 1>Castro had personally given her a medal. Through all of that,

0:46:47.436 --> 0:46:52.116
<v Speaker 1>there hadn't been even a whiff of suspicion. And suddenly,

0:46:52.476 --> 0:46:54.716
<v Speaker 1>at the start of what she thought was a routine

0:46:54.756 --> 0:46:58.996
<v Speaker 1>background check, a funny looking Chris Farley character was pointing

0:46:59.156 --> 0:47:02.116
<v Speaker 1>the finger at her. She sat there in shock.

0:47:02.396 --> 0:47:06.476
<v Speaker 3>She would just looking at me like I'm sure, looking

0:47:06.476 --> 0:47:11.716
<v Speaker 3>at the headlines, waiting for say, another word, just waiting.

0:47:12.076 --> 0:47:14.716
<v Speaker 1>When Carmichael looked back on that meeting years later, he

0:47:14.796 --> 0:47:18.396
<v Speaker 1>realized that was the first clue he had missed her

0:47:18.436 --> 0:47:19.796
<v Speaker 1>reaction made no sense.

0:47:20.796 --> 0:47:23.356
<v Speaker 3>I just didn't pick up on She never said, what

0:47:23.396 --> 0:47:26.516
<v Speaker 3>are you talking about? Nothing like that. She didn't see

0:47:26.516 --> 0:47:33.356
<v Speaker 3>a freaking word. She just sat down and listening. And

0:47:33.476 --> 0:47:38.436
<v Speaker 3>you know, if i'd been a stute, I picked up

0:47:38.436 --> 0:47:46.236
<v Speaker 3>on that. No denial, no confusion, no anger. Anybody who's

0:47:47.116 --> 0:47:50.676
<v Speaker 3>told the suspective of murder or something the completely and

0:47:50.796 --> 0:47:53.116
<v Speaker 3>it's like, wait a minute, you just accused me of

0:47:53.156 --> 0:47:54.836
<v Speaker 3>so I don't want to know what the fuck this

0:47:55.036 --> 0:47:57.356
<v Speaker 3>is all about. And eventually they'll get in your face,

0:47:57.876 --> 0:48:01.476
<v Speaker 3>you know, they'll really get in your face. I didn't

0:48:01.516 --> 0:48:03.676
<v Speaker 3>do a freaking thing and stept sit there.

0:48:03.676 --> 0:48:08.636
<v Speaker 1>Like Carmichael had doubts right from the beginning, But doubts

0:48:08.676 --> 0:48:12.636
<v Speaker 1>triggered disbelief only when you can't explain them away, and

0:48:12.676 --> 0:48:15.956
<v Speaker 1>he could easily explain them away. She was the Queen

0:48:15.996 --> 0:48:18.516
<v Speaker 1>of Cuba, for goodness sake. How could the Queen of

0:48:18.596 --> 0:48:23.156
<v Speaker 1>Cuba be a spy? Sure, Carmichael told her, I have

0:48:23.276 --> 0:48:25.476
<v Speaker 1>reason to suspect that you might be involved in a

0:48:25.556 --> 0:48:30.596
<v Speaker 1>counterintelligence influence operation, but he later admitted he said that

0:48:30.756 --> 0:48:33.516
<v Speaker 1>only because he wanted her to take the meeting seriously.

0:48:34.276 --> 0:48:37.156
<v Speaker 3>I was anxious to get into it and get to

0:48:37.156 --> 0:48:40.796
<v Speaker 3>the next step. And like I said, I just panted

0:48:40.836 --> 0:48:44.236
<v Speaker 3>myself in the back and I worked. I'd shut her up,

0:48:45.556 --> 0:48:48.476
<v Speaker 3>not to hear anymore of that crap anymore. Now, let's

0:48:48.476 --> 0:48:51.436
<v Speaker 3>get do this, get this done. That's why I missed.

0:48:52.436 --> 0:48:55.316
<v Speaker 1>They talked about the Admiral Carroll briefing. She had a

0:48:55.356 --> 0:48:58.836
<v Speaker 1>good answer. They talked about why she abruptly left the

0:48:58.836 --> 0:49:03.196
<v Speaker 1>Pentagon that day. She had an answer. She was being flirty,

0:49:03.476 --> 0:49:06.956
<v Speaker 1>a little playful. He began to relax. He looked down

0:49:06.996 --> 0:49:09.596
<v Speaker 1>at her legs again, and.

0:49:09.556 --> 0:49:14.356
<v Speaker 3>She's bouncing her toe like that. I don't know if

0:49:14.396 --> 0:49:17.276
<v Speaker 3>it was conscious, but what I do know is that

0:49:17.356 --> 0:49:21.356
<v Speaker 3>catches your eye. And we got more comfortable with one another,

0:49:21.956 --> 0:49:25.076
<v Speaker 3>and she became just a little bit more flirty.

0:49:25.356 --> 0:49:27.356
<v Speaker 1>They talked about the phone call the day the plane

0:49:27.436 --> 0:49:30.836
<v Speaker 1>was shot down. She said she never got a phone call,

0:49:31.036 --> 0:49:33.796
<v Speaker 1>or at least she didn't remember getting one. It should

0:49:33.796 --> 0:49:36.276
<v Speaker 1>have been another red flag. The people who were with

0:49:36.316 --> 0:49:39.796
<v Speaker 1>her that day in the situation room distinctly remembered her

0:49:39.836 --> 0:49:42.836
<v Speaker 1>getting a phone call. But then again, it had been

0:49:42.876 --> 0:49:45.796
<v Speaker 1>a long and stressful day. They'd all been in the

0:49:45.836 --> 0:49:49.356
<v Speaker 1>middle of an international crisis. Maybe they just confused her

0:49:49.436 --> 0:49:54.156
<v Speaker 1>with someone else. There was one other thing, another moment

0:49:54.196 --> 0:49:57.876
<v Speaker 1>when Carmichael saw something in her reaction that made him wonder.

0:49:58.796 --> 0:50:01.396
<v Speaker 1>Near the end of the interview, he asked Montez a

0:50:01.396 --> 0:50:03.996
<v Speaker 1>series of questions about what happened after she left the

0:50:04.036 --> 0:50:08.756
<v Speaker 1>Pentagon that day. It was a standard investigative procedure. He

0:50:08.916 --> 0:50:12.276
<v Speaker 1>just wanted as complete a picture as possible of her

0:50:12.316 --> 0:50:16.156
<v Speaker 1>movements that evening. He asked her what she did after work.

0:50:16.836 --> 0:50:20.356
<v Speaker 1>She said she drove home. He asked her where she parked.

0:50:20.676 --> 0:50:23.516
<v Speaker 1>She said, in the lot across the street. He asked

0:50:23.516 --> 0:50:26.156
<v Speaker 1>her if she saw anyone else as she was parking.

0:50:26.436 --> 0:50:29.356
<v Speaker 1>Did she say hello to anyone? She said no.

0:50:29.836 --> 0:50:32.196
<v Speaker 3>I said, okay, well, so what'd you do? You can

0:50:32.276 --> 0:50:35.196
<v Speaker 3>park the car and you walked across the street while

0:50:35.236 --> 0:50:40.436
<v Speaker 3>I'm doing this is when changed the demeanor keeven in mine.

0:50:40.476 --> 0:50:42.156
<v Speaker 3>I'd been talking to her for almost two hours, and

0:50:42.196 --> 0:50:46.396
<v Speaker 3>by that time, Anna and I were almost like buddies. Okay,

0:50:46.636 --> 0:50:49.876
<v Speaker 3>not that close, but where we have a great rapport going.

0:50:50.236 --> 0:50:53.836
<v Speaker 3>She's actually joking about stuff or making funny remarks every

0:50:53.836 --> 0:50:57.316
<v Speaker 3>once in a while about stuff. It's that casual, and

0:50:57.356 --> 0:51:00.356
<v Speaker 3>then all of a sudden it's huge. Change came over

0:51:00.876 --> 0:51:04.196
<v Speaker 3>and you could see it, and one minute she's just

0:51:04.876 --> 0:51:09.516
<v Speaker 3>almost flirting stuff. We were having a good time at that. Oh,

0:51:09.836 --> 0:51:13.876
<v Speaker 3>all of a sudden, it's like at was handing the

0:51:13.916 --> 0:51:18.156
<v Speaker 3>cookie jar and his back and monsters you have. She

0:51:18.316 --> 0:51:23.036
<v Speaker 3>was looking at me like and denying, but looking at

0:51:23.036 --> 0:51:25.276
<v Speaker 3>me with that looked like, what do you know?

0:51:26.556 --> 0:51:31.236
<v Speaker 1>After her arrest, investigators discovered what had really happened that night.

0:51:31.956 --> 0:51:35.236
<v Speaker 1>The Cubans had an arrangement with her. If she ever

0:51:35.356 --> 0:51:38.356
<v Speaker 1>spotted one of her old handlers on the street, it

0:51:38.476 --> 0:51:41.556
<v Speaker 1>meant that her spymasters urgently needed to talk to her

0:51:41.596 --> 0:51:45.236
<v Speaker 1>in person. She should keep walking and meet the following

0:51:45.276 --> 0:51:49.316
<v Speaker 1>morning at a pre arranged site. That night, when she

0:51:49.436 --> 0:51:52.236
<v Speaker 1>got home from the Pentagon, she saw one of her

0:51:52.236 --> 0:51:57.036
<v Speaker 1>old handlers standing by her apartment building. So when Carmichael

0:51:57.076 --> 0:52:01.076
<v Speaker 1>asked her pointedly, who did you see? Did you see

0:52:01.116 --> 0:52:03.796
<v Speaker 1>anyone as you came home, she must have thought that

0:52:03.916 --> 0:52:07.036
<v Speaker 1>he knew about the arrangement, that he was on to her.

0:52:07.836 --> 0:52:10.556
<v Speaker 3>She's scared the fucking dam and she thought I knew

0:52:10.556 --> 0:52:13.396
<v Speaker 3>it and I didn't. I mean, I had no idea,

0:52:13.836 --> 0:52:16.116
<v Speaker 3>I didn't know what I had. I knew I had something.

0:52:16.956 --> 0:52:20.356
<v Speaker 3>I knew there was something, And long after the interview,

0:52:20.396 --> 0:52:21.876
<v Speaker 3>I looked back at that, and what did I do?

0:52:21.956 --> 0:52:23.796
<v Speaker 3>I did the same thing every other human, I mean does,

0:52:24.196 --> 0:52:28.396
<v Speaker 3>But I rationalized it away. I thought, well, maybe she

0:52:28.596 --> 0:52:32.116
<v Speaker 3>was maybe she's been seeing a married guy and she

0:52:32.236 --> 0:52:34.956
<v Speaker 3>hooked up with her merriat and she didn't want to

0:52:34.996 --> 0:52:38.116
<v Speaker 3>tell me. Or maybe she's a lesbian or something and

0:52:38.196 --> 0:52:40.716
<v Speaker 3>she was hooking up with a girlfriend she doesn't want

0:52:40.756 --> 0:52:44.116
<v Speaker 3>us to know. She's worried about that. I started thinking

0:52:44.116 --> 0:52:48.396
<v Speaker 3>about all these other possibilities, and I accepted just enough

0:52:48.716 --> 0:52:51.716
<v Speaker 3>so that I wouldn't keep going crazy. Accepted it.

0:52:53.316 --> 0:52:57.236
<v Speaker 1>Anna Montes wasn't a master spy. She didn't need to be.

0:52:58.316 --> 0:53:00.716
<v Speaker 1>In a world where our lie detector is set to

0:53:00.756 --> 0:53:04.196
<v Speaker 1>the off position, a spy is always going to have

0:53:04.236 --> 0:53:09.036
<v Speaker 1>an easy time of it. And was Scott Carmichael somehow negligent?

0:53:09.796 --> 0:53:12.836
<v Speaker 1>Not at all? He did what truth default theory would

0:53:12.876 --> 0:53:16.356
<v Speaker 1>predict any of us would do. He operated from the

0:53:16.476 --> 0:53:21.076
<v Speaker 1>assumption that Anna Montes was telling the truth, and, almost

0:53:21.156 --> 0:53:24.716
<v Speaker 1>without realizing it, work to square everything she said with

0:53:24.836 --> 0:53:28.556
<v Speaker 1>that assumption. We need a trigger to snap out of

0:53:28.596 --> 0:53:32.236
<v Speaker 1>the default to truth. But the threshold for triggers is high.

0:53:32.956 --> 0:53:37.996
<v Speaker 1>Carmichael was nowhere near that point. The simple truth, as

0:53:38.036 --> 0:53:42.276
<v Speaker 1>Tim Levine argues, is that lie detection does not cannot

0:53:42.516 --> 0:53:46.356
<v Speaker 1>work the way we expect it to work. In the movies,

0:53:46.516 --> 0:53:50.556
<v Speaker 1>the brilliant detective confronts the subject and catches him right

0:53:50.596 --> 0:53:53.476
<v Speaker 1>then and there in a lie. But in real life,

0:53:53.876 --> 0:53:57.436
<v Speaker 1>accumulating the amount of evidence necessary to overwhelm our doubts

0:53:57.556 --> 0:54:01.036
<v Speaker 1>takes time. You ask your husband if he is having

0:54:01.076 --> 0:54:04.396
<v Speaker 1>an affair, and he says no, and you believe him.

0:54:04.676 --> 0:54:07.316
<v Speaker 1>Your default is that he is telling the truth, and

0:54:07.396 --> 0:54:10.996
<v Speaker 1>whatever little inconsistency as you spot in his story, you

0:54:11.156 --> 0:54:15.036
<v Speaker 1>explained away. But three months later you happen to notice

0:54:15.076 --> 0:54:18.396
<v Speaker 1>an unusual hotel charge on his credit card bill, and

0:54:18.436 --> 0:54:22.476
<v Speaker 1>the combination of that and weeks of unexplained absences and

0:54:22.556 --> 0:54:26.436
<v Speaker 1>mysterious phone calls pushes you over the top. That's how

0:54:26.516 --> 0:54:30.916
<v Speaker 1>lies are detected. This is why the Cubans were able

0:54:30.956 --> 0:54:33.916
<v Speaker 1>to pull the wool over the CIA's eyes for so long.

0:54:35.076 --> 0:54:39.116
<v Speaker 1>That story is not an indictment of the agency's competence.

0:54:39.876 --> 0:54:43.916
<v Speaker 1>It just reflects the fact that CIA officers are like

0:54:43.996 --> 0:54:47.716
<v Speaker 1>the rest of us human equipped with the same set

0:54:47.796 --> 0:54:52.676
<v Speaker 1>of biases to truth as everyone else. Carmichael went back

0:54:52.676 --> 0:54:56.516
<v Speaker 1>to Reg Brown and tried to explain it.

0:54:56.636 --> 0:54:59.676
<v Speaker 3>Just you know, I realized what it looks like to you.

0:54:59.796 --> 0:55:02.876
<v Speaker 3>I understand your reasoning that you think that this is

0:55:02.916 --> 0:55:07.636
<v Speaker 3>a deliberate influence operation. Look see what if it was.

0:55:08.396 --> 0:55:11.636
<v Speaker 3>I can't a finger at on to say she was

0:55:11.756 --> 0:55:13.116
<v Speaker 3>part of delivery efforts.

0:55:13.396 --> 0:55:17.636
<v Speaker 1>In the end, he says he just had to close

0:55:17.676 --> 0:55:23.716
<v Speaker 1>out the case. Four years after Scott Carmichael's interview with

0:55:23.836 --> 0:55:27.596
<v Speaker 1>Anna Montes, one of his colleagues the DA met an

0:55:27.676 --> 0:55:32.076
<v Speaker 1>analyst for the National Security Agency at an interagency meeting.

0:55:33.236 --> 0:55:36.596
<v Speaker 1>The NSA is the third arm of the US intelligence network,

0:55:36.916 --> 0:55:41.076
<v Speaker 1>along with the CIA and the DA. They are the codebreakers,

0:55:41.956 --> 0:55:45.036
<v Speaker 1>and the analyst said that her agency had had some

0:55:45.276 --> 0:55:48.636
<v Speaker 1>success with the codes that the Cubans were using to

0:55:48.676 --> 0:55:52.956
<v Speaker 1>communicate with their agents. The codes were long rows of

0:55:53.036 --> 0:55:57.556
<v Speaker 1>numbers broadcast at regular intervals over shortwave radio, and the

0:55:57.676 --> 0:56:01.196
<v Speaker 1>NSA had managed to decode a few snippets. They had

0:56:01.196 --> 0:56:03.196
<v Speaker 1>given the list of tidbits to the FBI two and

0:56:03.236 --> 0:56:06.676
<v Speaker 1>a half years before, but had heard nothing back. Out

0:56:06.676 --> 0:56:10.556
<v Speaker 1>of frustration, the NSA analysts to share a few details

0:56:10.756 --> 0:56:15.276
<v Speaker 1>with her DIA counterpart, the Cubans had a highly placed

0:56:15.276 --> 0:56:19.316
<v Speaker 1>spy in Washington whom they called Agent S. She said

0:56:20.076 --> 0:56:24.436
<v Speaker 1>Agent S had an interest in something called a safe system,

0:56:24.756 --> 0:56:28.556
<v Speaker 1>and Agent S had apparently visited the American base at

0:56:28.556 --> 0:56:32.196
<v Speaker 1>Guantanamo Bay in the two week time frame from July

0:56:32.436 --> 0:56:38.036
<v Speaker 1>fourth to July eighteenth, nineteen ninety six. The man from

0:56:38.076 --> 0:56:43.876
<v Speaker 1>the DIA was alarmed. Safe was the name of the

0:56:43.956 --> 0:56:49.596
<v Speaker 1>DIA's internal computer messaging archive that strongly suggested that Agent

0:56:49.796 --> 0:56:53.196
<v Speaker 1>S was at the DIA, or at least closely affiliated

0:56:53.196 --> 0:56:56.956
<v Speaker 1>with the DIA. He came back and told his supervisors.

0:56:57.556 --> 0:56:59.956
<v Speaker 1>They told Carmichael. He was angry.

0:57:00.916 --> 0:57:03.036
<v Speaker 3>He said, two and a half years, how many DIA

0:57:03.036 --> 0:57:06.116
<v Speaker 3>employees have gone on there. You've never opened up. They've

0:57:06.116 --> 0:57:08.516
<v Speaker 3>never told me they open a freaking case on DII

0:57:08.556 --> 0:57:11.156
<v Speaker 3>in boy Old Mother Farmers.

0:57:11.796 --> 0:57:17.596
<v Speaker 1>He was the DIA's counterintelligence investigator. He knew exactly what

0:57:17.676 --> 0:57:21.396
<v Speaker 1>he had to do, a search of the DIA computer system.

0:57:21.636 --> 0:57:25.396
<v Speaker 1>Any Department of Defense employee who travels to Guantanamo Bay

0:57:25.636 --> 0:57:29.156
<v Speaker 1>needs to get approval. They need to send two messages

0:57:29.196 --> 0:57:33.116
<v Speaker 1>through the Pentagon system, asking first for permission to travel

0:57:33.156 --> 0:57:35.716
<v Speaker 1>and then for permission to talk to whomever they wished

0:57:35.716 --> 0:57:40.756
<v Speaker 1>to interview at the base. Okay, so two messages. Carmichael said.

0:57:41.676 --> 0:57:44.756
<v Speaker 1>He guessed that the earliest anyone traveling to Guantanamo Bay

0:57:44.796 --> 0:57:48.756
<v Speaker 1>in July would apply for their clearances was April, so

0:57:48.836 --> 0:57:53.356
<v Speaker 1>he had his search parameters travel authority and security clearance

0:57:53.436 --> 0:57:58.836
<v Speaker 1>requests from DIA employees regarding Guantanamo Bay made between April

0:57:58.836 --> 0:58:03.716
<v Speaker 1>first and July eighteenth, nineteen ninety six. He told his

0:58:03.756 --> 0:58:07.716
<v Speaker 1>co worker Gator Johnson to run the same search simultaneously.

0:58:08.476 --> 0:58:11.996
<v Speaker 1>Two heads will be better than one. They began searching

0:58:12.676 --> 0:58:13.916
<v Speaker 1>to the safe system.

0:58:14.316 --> 0:58:16.276
<v Speaker 3>I thought, I'm gonna go through this real quick and

0:58:16.356 --> 0:58:18.796
<v Speaker 3>just see something jumps on it. And that's when I

0:58:18.876 --> 0:58:20.716
<v Speaker 3>hit That's when I'm pretty sure it was the twenty

0:58:20.756 --> 0:58:23.876
<v Speaker 3>four hit me and it was Hannabi Montes and the

0:58:23.996 --> 0:58:26.276
<v Speaker 3>game was fucking over. And I mean it was over

0:58:26.316 --> 0:58:32.116
<v Speaker 3>in a heart, and I was really stunned, speechless, stunned.

0:58:33.796 --> 0:58:36.236
<v Speaker 3>I could have fallen out of my chair, and I

0:58:36.356 --> 0:58:40.116
<v Speaker 3>literally backed up, you know, I was on wheels. I

0:58:40.316 --> 0:58:46.756
<v Speaker 3>was literally distancing myself from this bad news.

0:58:47.756 --> 0:58:50.156
<v Speaker 1>Carmichael said, Oh shit,