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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm pim Fox.

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Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Bramowitz. Each day we

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Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for

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Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store

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Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m L

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Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. Just

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Speaker 1: how at risk are you of having a flood? Well?

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Speaker 1: When it came to Hurricane Harvey, about forty percent of

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Speaker 1: the people who suffered damages of homeowners were outside of

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Speaker 1: the flood zone and did not have insurance through the

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Speaker 1: National Flood Insurance Program. Here to talk about how to

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Speaker 1: assess your risk of flooding and why it is important

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Speaker 1: to consider private insurance is Mark Aunky Larry uh CEO

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Speaker 1: of Various Analytics and I enjoy us here in our

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Speaker 1: Bloombrick eleven three our studios. So, first of all, what

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Speaker 1: is Various Analytics. Well, Various Canalytics has some great data

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Speaker 1: which provides our customers, insurers, natural resources area as well

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Speaker 1: as financial services with great insights into the risk and

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Speaker 1: about the decisions they need to make. So how do

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Speaker 1: people determine truly their risk if they are not in

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Speaker 1: a flood zone and they are not on the coasts.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what goes into that? Sure? Well, I mean

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Speaker 1: the first thing you have to understand is long ago

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Speaker 1: the hundred year plane is really about lenders. Lenders want

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Speaker 1: to make sure that their assets, the mortgage that they're

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Speaker 1: putting on a home, had insurance. So over the course

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Speaker 1: of time, Um, there is a lot of floodplane prone

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Speaker 1: areas that aren't covered by those maps. So you're at

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Speaker 1: risk well outside those maps. And the fact you just

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Speaker 1: provided inside of Harvey of the loss was outside of

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Speaker 1: those traditional floodplanes. So risk is much bigger and much expected.

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Speaker 1: A lot of consumers have no idea, and at the

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Speaker 1: same time, the actual boundaries of flood are extending every day.

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Speaker 1: So I just have to wonder, when you start to

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Speaker 1: do analytics on this kind of thing, what are you

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Speaker 1: looking for? Are you looking for the elevation, the whether

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Speaker 1: they're hills, whether it's just a flat plane, whether it's

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Speaker 1: covered in concrete, the soil. I mean, what do you

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Speaker 1: look for? So great, great opening almost all those So

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of very advanced models that take a

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Speaker 1: look at all that. So if you price or understanding

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Speaker 1: homeowner's insurance policy. A lot of those perils are all

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Speaker 1: captured in that. So the models are very effective and

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Speaker 1: understanding both the floodplains. But what they do is they

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Speaker 1: go beyond to understand how rising water will effect an area,

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Speaker 1: whether it's paved or not paved. An example, distance to coast,

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Speaker 1: distance to you know, the various natural tributaries, tributaries. The

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Speaker 1: elements of risk are beyond just what has been a

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Speaker 1: UH map that's been around for a long time that

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Speaker 1: has been kind of altered for different legislative problems and issues.

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Speaker 1: So how who pays you? I mean do insurance companies basically,

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Speaker 1: So it's basically the insurers who are looking to write

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Speaker 1: those risks. So I think there's a great opportunity to

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Speaker 1: take some of what is you know, the flood insurance

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Speaker 1: and bring it to the private market so insurers can

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Speaker 1: provide that to consumers. And I think that's a very

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Speaker 1: viable and opportunity. I don't really see how they could

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Speaker 1: do that if they could compete with the National Flood

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Speaker 1: Insurance Program of the U S which is set to

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Speaker 1: expire later this year. But I'm sure we'll get pasted

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Speaker 1: again because politically it would be unviable for them to

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Speaker 1: say to all the people on the coast of Florida

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Speaker 1: and North Carolina, well, go go fish, go go figure

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Speaker 1: it out for yourselves, and we're not going to insure

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Speaker 1: you anymore. Um. But a lot of people have said

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Speaker 1: that that's not an economically viable program, that there will

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Speaker 1: be much bigger losses than the income that they bring in.

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Speaker 1: So any private insurance policy would be vastly more expensive. No,

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Speaker 1: So I think the answer is not necessarily to replace

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Speaker 1: uh the n f I paper. I think that needs

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Speaker 1: to continue. I'm not going to get into the politics

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Speaker 1: of that, but the reality is there should it needs

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Speaker 1: to be private insurance to augment it, to provide insurance

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Speaker 1: to those who are in a floodplaine that have risk. Um.

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Speaker 1: I think what we are looking to do is try

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Speaker 1: to provide the same type of options and flexibility that

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Speaker 1: are available from a homeowner's perspective, trying to provide things

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Speaker 1: that's affordable and available from a private perspective outside those

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Speaker 1: flood zones. And I think, you know, you need to

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Speaker 1: actually have some actual sound rating information so that the

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Speaker 1: pricing is accurate. Your point is valid there, it's been

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Speaker 1: a little bit subsidized, a little bit subsidized. It's a

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Speaker 1: very very diplomatic way of putting it, compared to some

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Speaker 1: of the language I've heard from other people. Uh, just

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Speaker 1: can you give us a sense of which insurance companies

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Speaker 1: are interested in underwriting this type of policy. So right now,

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Speaker 1: there's a group of very large insurers they're called write

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Speaker 1: your own um. Historically they have been kind of focused

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Speaker 1: on providing is a distribution channel to the n f

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Speaker 1: I pay um. I think under some of the more

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Speaker 1: recent legislation, they will now be allowed to both uh

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Speaker 1: distribute the n f I P insurance as well as

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Speaker 1: write your own I think many sharers, both on the

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Speaker 1: commercial and personal lines will write the program to get

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Speaker 1: the proper pricing and rates. And I'm sure that it's

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Speaker 1: not too hard to find investors who want to put

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Speaker 1: up the capital on the other side, because everyone's looking

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Speaker 1: for yields, and you can probably get a good yield

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Speaker 1: for this, right I would agree what kind of yields

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Speaker 1: are looking at? Well, I think you'd see that from

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Speaker 1: an insurance perspective, r O s IF in the industry

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Speaker 1: have historically been around seven percent, So I think most

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Speaker 1: people who are kind of coming in from an alternative

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Speaker 1: capital are going to look something that would be low

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Speaker 1: sick double digits. All right, thank you so much, low

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Speaker 1: double digits eleven twelve. In a time like this of

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Speaker 1: nine point seven trillion dollars of negative yielding debt, I'm

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Speaker 1: sure they could find some some takers for that mark.

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Speaker 1: Uncle Larry, thank you so much for joining us chief

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Speaker 1: operating Officer of various Analytics, which takes a look at

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Speaker 1: the risks that are implied when people take out flood insurance. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Of course, if you want to know the truth. I

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Speaker 1: actually bought my apartments specifically because it was an elevation

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Speaker 1: that would not get flooded. But now I'm going to

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Speaker 1: have to go back and this will be another thing

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Speaker 1: that I can worry about later to late at night

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Speaker 1: when I don't have anything else to worry about. Semi

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Speaker 1: followed Cebo opening up for bitcoin futures trading last night,

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Speaker 1: and the results have been pretty good. They have not

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Speaker 1: seen major hiccups, they have seen the trading volumes that

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Speaker 1: they have been good. All systems seem ago here to

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Speaker 1: put this into perspective and figure out whether this paves

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Speaker 1: the path for more institutional money flying into this cryptocurrency

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Speaker 1: as Ken Fisher, Founder, chairman and co chief investment officer

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Speaker 1: of Fisher Investments. Ken, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 1: I want to start with I want to start with

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Speaker 1: bitcoin because it seems to be the rage right now,

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Speaker 1: and because it's sort of highlights the degree of desire

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Speaker 1: for volatility and bigger profits than you can get elsewhere.

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Speaker 1: What's your take on it? Are you investing in it?

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Speaker 1: Are you staying away from it? Do you see it

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Speaker 1: as a sign of a bubble? Uh? So I've got

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Speaker 1: to take on it that I haven't had until last week,

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Speaker 1: which is last week. I'm in Manhattan, and I'm appearing

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Speaker 1: in various places, and I'm commenting on bitcoin, and I

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Speaker 1: was routinely in print, taken out of context and misinterpreted

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Speaker 1: in almost everything that I said by people who seem

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Speaker 1: to have some other goal. And I've never seen that

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Speaker 1: happen before. So I've made a conscious decision as of

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Speaker 1: last week, I'm not talking about bitcoin ever or crypto ever,

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Speaker 1: because it's a crazy world. People just cannot keep themselves

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Speaker 1: to the facts. The things that I said, which was

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Speaker 1: all actually on TV, are clear because there's a clear

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Speaker 1: record off I didn't do any other interviews, and there's

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Speaker 1: all these other things that appeared online in print saying

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Speaker 1: things that I said, things that I never said. I

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Speaker 1: think that's crazy, and I think that's an awful lot

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Speaker 1: of what goes on with the rest of bitcoin. Oh.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'm to go back that stuff on CNBC

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Speaker 1: and on the street dot com. And you know, basically

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Speaker 1: all that I said was I don't know if the

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Speaker 1: bubble or not. I hate that term bubble, but the

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Speaker 1: price movement in trading days before and after where we

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Speaker 1: are as of last week is in percentage magnitude bigger

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Speaker 1: than any of the bubbles of history. That doesn't make

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Speaker 1: it a bubble. It just makes it a big price movement. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The other thing that I've said and that I'll say

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Speaker 1: about bitcoin is it in every long bull cycle, there

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Speaker 1: is some non stock market phenomena or close to stock

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Speaker 1: market phenomena that gives you a kind of a you

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Speaker 1: into a kind of a window pane into the coming

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Speaker 1: euphoria stocks. Coming back to John Templeton's line, the bull

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Speaker 1: markets are born on pessimism, growing skepticism, ature on optimism,

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Speaker 1: and die of euphoria, and that euphoria, which is normally

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Speaker 1: the end of a bull market unless something governmental comes

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Speaker 1: along and noxious under first is something it's always not

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Speaker 1: clear fully that we're going to get to. But I

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Speaker 1: think the crypto thing is the first real sign we're

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Speaker 1: seeing in this long cycle of the coming of euphoria.

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Speaker 1: It's the window pane into the coming of euphoria for stocks.

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Speaker 1: So what are you looking for to determine whether that

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Speaker 1: euphoria has started to bleed over? I mean, how do

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Speaker 1: you know that we aren't there yet? Oh, that's easy,

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Speaker 1: that's trivial. Look at all of the nonsense that people

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Speaker 1: worry about that they stop worrying about when you get

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Speaker 1: to euphoria. I mean, I've been doing this stuff, you know,

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Speaker 1: since the early seventies. And when you get to euphoria,

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Speaker 1: people stop worrying about things like are there too many

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Speaker 1: new highs? Uh? They stop worrying about things like as

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Speaker 1: the markets pe two high, they stop worrying about all

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Speaker 1: of the kinds of things like uh, the next said hike.

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Speaker 1: Because you actually get to that point when there's euphoria

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Speaker 1: where they invert the yel curve and nobody much pays

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Speaker 1: attention or notices because they conclude that it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: It's the worrying stopping about the things that people have

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Speaker 1: worried about over and over and over again wrongly, which

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Speaker 1: ironically is about the time to get worried. But we

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Speaker 1: still have those things. We still have people that have

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Speaker 1: a fear of heights, that think the market has been

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Speaker 1: too strong, particularly in America. That's true more so than

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Speaker 1: overseas because of the UH you know, if you look

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Speaker 1: overseas Britain, some continental Europe, more the equity returns have

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Speaker 1: been muted by currency strength, and so there's has been

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Speaker 1: so buoyant normally in the late stages of bowl markets.

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Speaker 1: As you move into that eusphoria phase, you get some

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Speaker 1: multiple big years this cycle, and we haven't really had

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Speaker 1: that normally. The first third of time of a ballmark

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Speaker 1: it's pretty steep, the middle thirds flatish in the back

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Speaker 1: their steep and of the return comes in the first

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Speaker 1: and last the ball market only about the middle third.

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Speaker 1: Before I came on, there was a comment that we've

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Speaker 1: had the most new high since nineteen which is true, um,

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Speaker 1: but also people forget that NT was at seven percent

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Speaker 1: year and still had years ahead of it in the

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Speaker 1: ball market. Uh, an interesting point that I think people

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Speaker 1: kind of miss in context. We still have a long

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Speaker 1: ways to go unless the government does something stupid, which

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Speaker 1: is so possible. Well, so if that's the case, it

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Speaker 1: sounds like, are you getting more heavily invested in risk

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Speaker 1: your stocks? I mean, is this time the time to

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Speaker 1: go all in if we still have the last third

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Speaker 1: of games to go? The time to get all in

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Speaker 1: was two thousand and nine, and I've been nearly endlessly bullish,

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Speaker 1: but not in what you think of as risk gier stocks.

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Speaker 1: In the back third of the time of the ball market,

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Speaker 1: the categories of stocks that typically do best are not

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Speaker 1: the ones that people think they will, because the market

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Speaker 1: is a function that works off surprise. The things that

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Speaker 1: do best in the last stage of a ball market

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Speaker 1: are categorically what you could call comfort stocks. They're big,

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Speaker 1: they're reputationally impeccable. There are things that are not thought

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Speaker 1: of as needles in the haystack, but as too obvious

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Speaker 1: to likely do well. They're perfectly the stocks that the

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Speaker 1: last greater fool who gets into the market that was

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Speaker 1: too afraid to buy a single thing one week before

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Speaker 1: is ready to dip his toe into because their comfort stocks.

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Speaker 1: So this would be big, global, high quality, well branded names.

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Speaker 1: This is why the Fangs are doing so well. Uh.

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Speaker 1: It's classically big pharma for the same reason. The person

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Speaker 1: with money, who is typically older, buys the drugs, knows

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Speaker 1: his friends would buy the drugs. Big global name, high quality,

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Speaker 1: easy to do. The last people to get into the

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Speaker 1: market to push it up the most. You keep pushing

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Speaker 1: it up even as it's starting to fall. Those people,

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Speaker 1: they were too afraid to buy anything before, so they

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Speaker 1: might buy the stock of the company they worked for.

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Speaker 1: They might buy the stock of the company their spouse

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Speaker 1: works for. They might buy the one that brother works for.

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Speaker 1: And when you get a little beyond that, they buy

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Speaker 1: big global, safe names. Ken Fisher, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us. Ken Fisher, Founder, chairman and co chief

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Speaker 1: investment officer of Fisher Investments. Shoppers spent a record seventy

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Speaker 1: seven point five billion dollars online. That's just since November

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Speaker 1: one through yesterday. Every single one of those forty four

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Speaker 1: days has been a billion dollar day. Some shocking statistics,

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Speaker 1: uh from Adobe Sense and I'd love to get some

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Speaker 1: insight on what we can expect in the remaining a

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Speaker 1: few months and weeks of the year to America. Affney

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Speaker 1: joins us now. She's senior director of Adobe Digital Insights,

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Speaker 1: which has been looking into some of the data from

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Speaker 1: the biggest online retailers and trying to project what we

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Speaker 1: can expect. Tamara, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 1: Good morning. It's great to be here. Good morning. So

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Speaker 1: so let's just get us start with how much can

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Speaker 1: we see online sales accelerate before it becomes a logistics nightmare. Oh,

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Speaker 1: that's a really great question. We actually are seeing right

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Speaker 1: now about a thirteen point one percent growth in online

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Speaker 1: shopping versus last year. We're expecting that to end up

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Speaker 1: at thirteen point eight percent because the last couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks of of the month actually turned out to be

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Speaker 1: higher growth rate months weeks because of the fact that

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Speaker 1: people can ship later and later, Which brings me to

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Speaker 1: your question, which is how much more can we ship?

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Speaker 1: And Uh, I think that is we're just lucky that

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Speaker 1: we haven't had any big storms to slow down any

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Speaker 1: of those shipping and delivery services. Well, I mean we've

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Speaker 1: already heard about ups, for example, being worried about some

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Speaker 1: kind of logistic interruption. I'm sure that they're all racing

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Speaker 1: to make sure that their stations are up to speed.

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Speaker 1: We know that UPS and FedEx both are considering having

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Speaker 1: some kind of voluntary pick up at drug stores or

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Speaker 1: local businesses to try to expedite some of the the deliveries.

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Speaker 1: I'm just wondering, is the infrastructure okay with this growth?

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Speaker 1: At what point will it not be Well? At this

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Speaker 1: point seems to be okay, but you do see the

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Speaker 1: pure play online retailers investing in actual physical store look stations,

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Speaker 1: and part of the reason why they be doing that

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Speaker 1: is to make sure they do have a place to

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Speaker 1: drop off when the event happens that online shopping overcomes

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Speaker 1: our logistic capacity and trucking just becomes overloaded. Uh. The

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Speaker 1: other thing is going on right now is that the

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Speaker 1: average order value that's how much is put into a cart,

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Speaker 1: is a little bit down, but the amount of orders

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Speaker 1: is up, and that means there are more and more

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Speaker 1: boxes floating around. I was in Manhattan last year and

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Speaker 1: it was a sea of boxes. I'm sure it's like

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Speaker 1: that today. So it's so yes, this is going to

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Speaker 1: be a challenge. But Amazon Whole Foods now, so anywhere

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Speaker 1: there's a whole Foods. If they want to ship to

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Speaker 1: that location, they might be able to just have people

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Speaker 1: going to pick up stuff. So is the the sales profile?

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Speaker 1: Is it pretty much even across the retailers. Is it

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Speaker 1: mostly Amazon dot Com that's sucking up all the gains

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Speaker 1: here or were also seeing an increase in Walmart and

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Speaker 1: even in same Nordstrom. Well, you know, in my data set,

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Speaker 1: I need to give you more broad answer, so I

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Speaker 1: can tell you that the law are just retailers. The

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Speaker 1: ones who have a massive shopping catalog where it's a

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Speaker 1: one shop kind of deal are picking up much more

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Speaker 1: than average. The place where small retailers are winning is

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Speaker 1: in the mobile shopping category. They're actually with a more

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Speaker 1: targeted catalog and more specific items that you go there

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Speaker 1: to buy. It's much easier when you're under mobile phone.

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Speaker 1: I don't know about you, but if I want to

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Speaker 1: go find something like a silver bracelet, I don't want

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Speaker 1: to look at a thousand pages on my phone. So

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Speaker 1: that so there's a place for small retailers. There's obviously

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Speaker 1: the big places for the super large retailers. The middle

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Speaker 1: guys are not doing so hot. What about apparel? Apparel

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Speaker 1: is really interesting It's one of the only categories that

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Speaker 1: continues to see discounts even after Christmas is over. Right

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Speaker 1: now with discounts, we're still seeing some fairly good deals.

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Speaker 1: TVs are at about fifteen point three percent discount that's

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Speaker 1: coming off of though on Black Friday, So things are

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Speaker 1: starting to get more and more sensitive. But a perilous

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Speaker 1: one of those areas that doesn't get more expensive. It

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Speaker 1: actually gets cheaper as soon as you get into January.

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Speaker 1: Are we seeing tech really still being the hot spot?

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Speaker 1: And if so, is it all concentrated in one area

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Speaker 1: is it pretty much across the board with basically kids

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Speaker 1: across the world seeing what my children do, which is

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Speaker 1: just they want anything and all things tech. It's true,

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Speaker 1: tech is one of those categories that just keeps growing

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Speaker 1: and growing. In fact, it's almost hard to differentiate a

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Speaker 1: toy from tech at this point. Is the new video

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Speaker 1: game console the PlayStation for Pro with VR is that tech?

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Speaker 1: Or is that a game or toy? What is that now?

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Speaker 1: But yeah, the electronics category is seeing iPads and air

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Speaker 1: pods and Amazon Fire TVs and echo devices flying off

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Speaker 1: the shelves, and those discounts are pretty good right now

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Speaker 1: as well. Computers, for example, are at about seven percent down.

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Speaker 1: Black Friday saw six discounts, So again all of that

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Speaker 1: it's going to be under the Christmas tree and giving

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Speaker 1: gifts to all those from every category from kids to

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Speaker 1: two dads to moms and and and even grandparents are

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Speaker 1: getting in on the tech tech buying. To Mary Gaffney,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us to Mary Gaffney

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Speaker 1: is Senior director of Adobe Digital Insights. There's been a

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Speaker 1: lot of talk about retailers that have slowly been dying

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Speaker 1: for a number of years, and the question has been

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Speaker 1: when are they going to finally kick the bucket? You know?

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Speaker 1: And today I looked at a story at Bonton's Stories

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Speaker 1: to lead a December fifteenth payment on some of its debt.

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Speaker 1: Hasn't a fault yet. They still have a just grace period,

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Speaker 1: but it's sort of eching closer to that sort of

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Speaker 1: tipping point. Bert Flickinger here with us, managing director at

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Speaker 1: Strategic Resource Group UH Bonton is one of these stores

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Speaker 1: that has been on death watch. Is this the final nil?

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Speaker 1: It could be the final nil, Lisa for three reasons. One,

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Speaker 1: it's primarily a rust belt retailer, and the better economy

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Speaker 1: hasn't gotten to the regions where many of the retail

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Speaker 1: stores are to Uh, the off price retailers from Burlington

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Speaker 1: to t j X Max Marshalls have opened very aggressively

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Speaker 1: against them, So that's very problematic. And three, they've had

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Speaker 1: a lot of leadership changes. So when when they when

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Speaker 1: they lost a couple of good CEOs back to back.

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Speaker 1: The vendors had been supportive of the Bontan stores, but

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Speaker 1: the Herburger stores have been in recently in North Dakota, Minnesota,

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Speaker 1: upper Midwestern region, Carson's in Chicago. Uh, inventories a little light,

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Speaker 1: the circular pages, the ad pages a little light. Uh

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Speaker 1: So getting the cash in for Christmas, Hanukah, New Year's

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Speaker 1: is going to be concerning to your important point. Well,

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Speaker 1: I just have to wonder though, also whether we're reaching

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Speaker 1: a point given the increasing pressure from Amazon dot Com,

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Speaker 1: the fact that there have been so many years when

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Speaker 1: these struggling retailers have failed to turn themselves around. Dr J. C. Penney,

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Speaker 1: I'm talking Claire's, I'm talking uh years, I'm talking you know,

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Speaker 1: you're your sort of a list of laggards. I'm just wondering,

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Speaker 1: is next year going to be the one when we

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Speaker 1: actually start to see the fallout here. Next year is

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Speaker 1: going to be the one. And then uh t TM

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Speaker 1: or trailing twelve months is you You and your team

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Speaker 1: of Bloomberg News have reported well as well as the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal twenty retail chains of file for either bankruptcy

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Speaker 1: or liquidation this year, so in the last twelve months.

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Speaker 1: And but the key ones to your your key point

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Speaker 1: are going to be in and nineteen and primarily eighteen

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Speaker 1: where the vendors are seeing price deflation. Ors Tom Keane

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Speaker 1: always says, I want to know, ay, you are average

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Speaker 1: unit retail and the vendors are seeing average unit retailer.

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Speaker 1: The retailers are seeing average unit retail. And if you

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Speaker 1: can't drive higher sales like the well capitalized competitors, the Bonton's,

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Speaker 1: the Sears, the Claire's, all the key concerning change of

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Speaker 1: referenced are are brilliant for tough times. What's the what's

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Speaker 1: the catalyst here? Why now? Or why next year? Why now?

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Speaker 1: Is the toys r US bankruptcy really caught the vendor

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Speaker 1: community by surprise. We've met with the vendor community over

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Speaker 1: the summer. They've been fully supportive. UH two toys r

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Speaker 1: US and you could see it in the Toys her

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Speaker 1: US ads that ran last weekend and uh pre and

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Speaker 1: during Black Friday it's only four pages, while Target is

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Speaker 1: putting out a seventy two page full color toy book.

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Speaker 1: And so it is your referencing Amazon shifting the sales,

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Speaker 1: Target Walmart shifting the sales. The under capitalized retailers aren't

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Speaker 1: getting the extra money to advertise TV, radio, social, digital

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Speaker 1: connective and the key circulars that go to the homes

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Speaker 1: in the in the Sunday papers, and with that it

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Speaker 1: hurts customer count. And Bontan and the others don't benefit

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Speaker 1: from Star Wars setting box office records this weekend. They

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Speaker 1: have the FAO Schwartz toys, not the Star Wars license toys.

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Speaker 1: So sad. I'm looking at Bonton bonds. I mean, they've

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Speaker 1: been doing terribly for a long time, but they are

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Speaker 1: trading even lower right now. I'm looking uh less thirty

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Speaker 1: one cents on the dollar. I'm looking at. These are

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Speaker 1: the ones that come to one that is not a

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Speaker 1: very encouraging sign. Lowest in trading days. So I guess

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Speaker 1: that there was one lower, but it's it's close to

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Speaker 1: the lowest price on record. But it seems to be

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Speaker 1: uh that there also is a shift in debt markets.

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Speaker 1: There's a key shift in debt markets. You're referencing that

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Speaker 1: no one other than you and Bloomberg are reporting because

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Speaker 1: you're not able to refinance now the way you would

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Speaker 1: have been able to refinance even a quarter go. So

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Speaker 1: it's beyond toys or US. It's like you said, it's Bonton,

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Speaker 1: it's sears. Pet Smart bonds on the Bloomberg terminal have

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Speaker 1: traded way down. What happened there, It's it's a it's

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Speaker 1: a combination really good reverse category killing by Walmart and

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Speaker 1: b J's Wholesale Club and Albertson, Safeway, Windco, a number

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Speaker 1: of others because pet and all the way to pet

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Speaker 1: accessories is the fastest growing category and retail. But pet

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Speaker 1: Smart hired a lot of consultants that didn't know what

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Speaker 1: the devil they were doing, didn't know the detail of retail.

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Speaker 1: Bad releases, bad capex decisions, the new new stores are

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Speaker 1: losing money, and uh, the the stores really aren't aren't

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Speaker 1: built efficiently, so it should be best of times for

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Speaker 1: pet Smart, But it's dick and esque. It's worst of

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Speaker 1: times to your point on the Bloomberg terminal with the

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Speaker 1: bonds today on pet Smart, well, just to play devil's advocate,

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Speaker 1: I mean, these companies, these stores is have managed to

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Speaker 1: sort of limp along for a while, and perhaps they've

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Speaker 1: closed stores enough, and perhaps they'll close more stores next year.

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Speaker 1: What's not to say, you know, there is a place

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Speaker 1: for brick and mortar. We're seeing Amazon move more into

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Speaker 1: brick and mortar. You know, they can drag along for

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00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 1: a little long there. There they can drag along, and

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00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 1: there clearly is a place for brick and mortar. But

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00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:25,360
Speaker 1: at the same time, we were going through the bontan

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Speaker 1: Herberger stores in the north central states between the Dakotas

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00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 1: and Minnesota, Wisconsin. We were also going through Chuck and

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Speaker 1: Don's super Pet stores, a local entrepreneur one shop now

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00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 1: has dozens of stores. It's just pounding pet smart into

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Speaker 1: the ground with a lot of natural and organic pet food.

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Speaker 1: Fleet Farms now owned by kkr I and Menard's and

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00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 1: a number of others are also doing really well with

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00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 1: pet and pet smart. By going to the big house

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Speaker 1: consulting firms lost a lot of the great leadership they

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00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 1: had that built the company up during the twentieth century

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00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 1: until about five six years ago. Uh. And and just

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Speaker 1: real quick, what are you expecting with uh with this

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00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 1: year's holiday sales. I mean, I've heard from some people

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Speaker 1: that it seems like it's pretty strong so far. Would

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00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 1: you say that that's what you're hearing? Very strong? We

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00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: also checked the post office. Is the FedEx deposts and

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00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 1: the UPS deposts. I've never seen the shipping deposts so packed,

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00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 1: with a record two million parcels to be shipped bet

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Speaker 1: between million between between the big three post office UPS, FedEx,

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Speaker 1: and Bloomberg terminals. Reporting FedEx near a fifty two week

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00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 1: high today. I think, thinking part that should should go

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00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 1: higher because the volumes just astounding. But the retail stores

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00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,719
Speaker 1: with new leaders, good merchants are bouncing back, and Penny

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00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: On the Bloomberg terminals actually going up in terms of

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Speaker 1: the bonds that prefers and the the equity and sympathy

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00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 1: that they'll get. Ship shoppers who see out of stocks

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00:26:56,359 --> 00:27:00,040
Speaker 1: at Bonton shift to Penny and seares the shoppers of

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Speaker 1: already safe save Penny during during the last two years too.

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Speaker 1: Bert Flickinger, thank you so much. The only one I

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Speaker 1: know is they're counting the boxes that are lined up

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Speaker 1: that are ready to get shipped out for the holidays.

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Speaker 1: Burt Flickinger, thank you as always, Managing director at Strategic

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Speaker 1: Resource Group. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and

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Speaker 1: L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at

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00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm

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00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,879
Speaker 1: Pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on

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00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. You

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00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio