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Speaker 3: Mister ed Yard Denny and he joins us this morning,
Speaker 3: and I gotta go to you on bitcoin at ninety
Speaker 3: three thousand. How do you invest or speculate in something
Speaker 3: where there's no underlying there's no profit, there's no free
Speaker 3: cash flow, there's no history of gold.
Speaker 4: How do you do that?
Speaker 5: Ed Yard Denny?
Speaker 6: I guess you just have to be a believer. It's
Speaker 6: kind of a faith asset. The view that there'll be
Speaker 6: more and more buyers of this particular asset just keeps
Speaker 6: driving it up. And I guess in terms of trading it,
Speaker 6: all you can really do is be a technical analyst.
Speaker 6: You know, there's a little consolidation pattern there. Then Trump
Speaker 6: wins and it goes straight up. So you know, I
Speaker 6: think a lot of it's a news dependent and if
Speaker 6: the news is favorable, it goes up. That's kind of
Speaker 6: the story, Denny.
Speaker 3: America has turned upside down. Republicans, Democrats, Independence, We're going
Speaker 3: from press release to press release, some thrilled, some.
Speaker 5: Not, etc.
Speaker 3: Denny, how do you invest in this if you have
Speaker 3: a minimum time hold of three years? How do we
Speaker 3: emotionally get through the political maelstrom?
Speaker 6: Well, I think, first and foremost, it's pretty well known
Speaker 6: that the best way to invest is to ignore politics,
Speaker 6: or at least not let your personal political views influence
Speaker 6: your stock portfolio. Market tends to go up whether it's
Speaker 6: Democrats or Republicans in the White House. I guess sometimes
Speaker 6: we have to be a little bit more specific about
Speaker 6: the extent to which they're Also the same party that's
Speaker 6: in the White House is also in Congress. But all
Speaker 6: in all, the market's pe time z And as long
Speaker 6: as the earnings outlook is for more growth, and the
Speaker 6: longer is that outlook for growth, the higher the pe.
Speaker 6: And that's kind of the environment we're in right now.
Speaker 7: So, Ed, how did your outlook on this market change
Speaker 7: if at all with the election last.
Speaker 6: Two Yeah, more bullish, not for political reasons, but simply
Speaker 6: because I think animal spirits have been unleashed. Trump is
Speaker 6: definitely viewed as being a more pro business president than
Speaker 6: Harris would have been. He wants to cut taxes again
Speaker 6: and corporations as well as cut some taxes on lower
Speaker 6: income workers. He wants to deregulate, and then I think
Speaker 6: the market it is also excited about the possibility that
Speaker 6: some of these intractable geopolitical crises might have a chance
Speaker 6: of getting resolved as kind of Trump does his deal
Speaker 6: deal making magic, perhaps between Ukraine and Russia, and I
Speaker 6: don't think it's going to be deal making in the
Speaker 6: Middle East. I think it's going to be sort of
Speaker 6: a free ticket for the Israelis to take out Iran ed.
Speaker 7: What are there any sectors that kind of jump out
Speaker 7: at you that might be particular beneficiaries of this new
Speaker 7: Republican led government.
Speaker 6: Well, I'm not too creative here. I'm still recommending that.
Speaker 6: I'm still recommending the same sectors that we've been recommending
Speaker 6: for a while here. Three out of four of work
Speaker 6: one hasn't. And the recommendation is to overweight technology, including
Speaker 6: communications services, kind of counting that as one sector that's
Speaker 6: worked extremely well and I think should continue to do well,
Speaker 6: so we'd overweight that. Industrials has done very well, Financials
Speaker 6: and the only clunker has been.
Speaker 3: Energy and Jo Danny, give me a MAG seven update.
Speaker 3: Dan Ives is in the house. He's been the acolyte
Speaker 3: of Apple forever, Planet here, forever. Take a sector view
Speaker 3: on MAG seven.
Speaker 5: Can you add shares? Here? Do you hold? Do you
Speaker 5: lighten up? Well?
Speaker 6: I think lightning up hasn't been a wise thing to do.
Speaker 5: Thank everybody's joining that, though.
Speaker 6: Everybody's scratching their head about why Warren Buffett's getting out
Speaker 6: of Apple?
Speaker 5: Why is he getting out of Apple?
Speaker 6: Dr That's one of the great mysteries of life these days,
Speaker 6: is why he's scrambling to raise so much cash. And
Speaker 6: one of the interpretations is he knows something, or he
Speaker 6: thinks he knows something about things turning sour pretty quickly here,
Speaker 6: and he likes to buy things cheap, And may simply
Speaker 6: be that is that he just views it not only
Speaker 6: doesn't have anything to buy with the cash he had,
Speaker 6: but some of these assets that he have of appreciated
Speaker 6: to such an extent that he just wants to roll
Speaker 6: it into cash. And the cash, by the way, is
Speaker 6: looking pretty good. It's still yielding three and a half
Speaker 6: to four and a half percent, So I think I
Speaker 6: think it's an inscrutable situation and I can't, but the
Speaker 6: life may figure it out. I guess after the fact
Speaker 6: that everything blows apart, we'll say that Warren Bucket was
Speaker 6: the only one's thought coming.
Speaker 3: There was a wonder child out of the Midwest pre
Speaker 3: World War two, and he took some exams of Paul
Speaker 3: out of the Blue to get into Harvard without applying
Speaker 3: to Harvard. Harvard took him full scholarship, the whole thing
Speaker 3: sterling career, and he ended up at a small school
Speaker 3: in New Haven. And James Tobin, even if you disagreed
Speaker 3: with him, was always this light, this light of intellect
Speaker 3: and size. And he is the one in nineteen seventy
Speaker 3: seven with James Mead who said nominal gdpte matters. This
Speaker 3: was revolutionary at the time, to this day hugely controversial.
Speaker 3: Edgyard Denny carries his spirit forward by looking at animal spirit, which,
Speaker 3: in the definition of Bloomberg's surveillance is real GDP plus inflation.
Speaker 3: Ed Yard Denny, what would James Tobin say about the
Speaker 3: new animal spirit of a Trump administration?
Speaker 6: Well, I think he would approve of the concept, though
Speaker 6: not necessarily the context in which it occurs. I mean,
Speaker 6: animal spirits was a phrase that was concocted by This
Speaker 6: is a Hero, which is John Maynard Keynes and John
Speaker 6: Maynard Kaines described it as spontaneous optimism. And I think
Speaker 6: Tobin was very much of a liberal and a Democrat,
Speaker 6: so I think he would prefer to describe animal spirits
Speaker 6: as occurring under a democratic rather than a Republican administration.
Speaker 6: But he was objective and it is what it is.
Speaker 6: I mean, we have seen so far spontaneous optimism, animal
Speaker 6: spirits with the election of President Trump. Some of that
Speaker 6: maybe that the election turned out to be not even close.
Speaker 6: It wasn't contested, so it was over with and done.
Speaker 6: But on the other hand, Trump's policies are good for
Speaker 6: nominal GDP for the most part, though there clearly are
Speaker 6: some potential negatives.
Speaker 3: When you work with Eric Wallerstein on this and you
Speaker 3: get to the roaring twenties of Edyard Denny. Is it
Speaker 3: as simple as high we underestimate revenue growth in American corporations.
Speaker 6: Well, I'm not sure that the revenues is the issue.
Speaker 6: Revenues I think are going to be okay, but revenues
Speaker 6: are generated on a global basis, and while the US
Speaker 6: economy looks pretty good, good actually stands out compared to
Speaker 6: the rest of the world, China, Europe, some of these
Speaker 6: other areas look pretty weak. It's really all about earnings.
Speaker 6: The profit margin is going to automatically go up when Trump.
Speaker 6: I think one of the first things they'll do is
Speaker 6: get through Congress it cut of the corporate tax rate
Speaker 6: from twenty one percent to fifteen percent. And then deregulation
Speaker 6: is unknown. We don't know how much of it will
Speaker 6: occur and how much will be reflected in profit margins.
Speaker 6: But oh, by the way, before the election, we were
Speaker 6: still talking about the roaring twenty twenties, figuring that productivity
Speaker 6: is going to make a comeback no matter who's in
Speaker 6: the White House.
Speaker 7: And is inflation a concern here? I think some folks
Speaker 7: are concerned that tariffs number two, you know, cuts in
Speaker 7: tax rates could fuel inflation.
Speaker 8: Is that a concern of yours?
Speaker 6: Well? I think on balance, when you include the potential
Speaker 6: for deregulation and tax cuts, that may be sort of
Speaker 6: a wash. But yeah, I have to be concerned about it.
Speaker 6: We all have to be concerned about it. The bond
Speaker 6: markets certainly concerned about it. My friends, the bond vigilanis
Speaker 6: have taken the bond deal up by about seventy seventy
Speaker 6: five basis points since the FED cut the FED funds
Speaker 6: rate by seventy five basis points. So somebody's wrong here,
Speaker 6: and the bond market's basically saying, no, Moss, we don't
Speaker 6: need any rate cuts because the economy is doing well
Speaker 6: and the so called neutral rate is higher than Fed
Speaker 6: officials believe, as evidenced by the strength of the economy.
Speaker 7: So, Ed, what do you think the Fed will do?
Speaker 7: And what do you think the Fed maybe should do?
Speaker 6: The Fed should do nothing, which is what they should
Speaker 6: have done last week, but they just won't listen to me.
Speaker 5: I don't know why.
Speaker 6: What is that They've got their own agenda. And look,
Speaker 6: ever since Jackson holes the speech that Powell gave was
Speaker 6: extraordinarily dubblish. He was almost wokeish, reminiscent of the kind
Speaker 6: of folk just an unemployment that we had before the
Speaker 6: inflation surge of twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three.
Speaker 6: So I think we are seeing some stickiness in the
Speaker 6: inflation rate, the so called supercore inflation rate that not
Speaker 6: too long ago Paul said was a key number. Suddenly
Speaker 6: he is ignoring.
Speaker 3: That Edgiar Denny, we got to get it on the record.
Speaker 3: You've just been you know, with our question the equity
Speaker 3: strategist of the last twenty four months, I got futures
Speaker 3: at six thousand and twenty two. Remind us, Edgar Denny,
Speaker 3: where we are with your seven percent growth rate in
Speaker 3: one three Dare I say in ten years?
Speaker 6: Well, when when Trump was elected, we thought about it.
Speaker 6: We thought about the animal spirits and what could happen
Speaker 6: to earnings as a result of the profit margin, and
Speaker 6: we turn more bullish. The reality is we haven't been
Speaker 6: bullish enough, and we've been among the most bullish. But
Speaker 6: so now we're looking for sixty one hundred by the
Speaker 6: end of the year on the S and P five hundred.
Speaker 6: That's almost a layup. And then I think we're then
Speaker 6: we're looking for seven thousand by the end of next year,
Speaker 6: and eight thousand by the end of twenty twenty six,
Speaker 6: and eight to ten thousand by the end of the decade,
Speaker 6: probably closer to ten than to eight.
Speaker 3: I want you to fold this, folks of doctor Yard
Speaker 3: Denny with doctor Manil yesterday, to have Alicia manel on
Speaker 3: yesterday on the failure of our retirement plan, and yeah,
Speaker 3: we got to put more money aside. But mostly what
Speaker 3: we have to do is listen to Ed yard Denny.
Speaker 3: If you're scared stiff, you're in.
Speaker 5: Cash, you're in bonds.
Speaker 3: Maybe you can get the confidence of Yard Denny by
Speaker 3: looking at three years and five years carefully to the
Speaker 3: kind of vector, the kind of glide path he sees.
Speaker 3: Edjar Denny.
Speaker 5: Thank you.
Speaker 2: You're listening to The Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast live weekday afternoons
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Speaker 3: Danny Blenchflower with us from Dartmouth thirty years The Wage Curve.
Speaker 5: Was his book.
Speaker 3: It changed the discussion of aggregation. Do you sum everything
Speaker 3: together or do you have the courage to disaggregate? Like
Speaker 3: Blanchflower is saying, how does the fact that people can
Speaker 3: migrate from New Mexico to New Hampshire change our economics?
Speaker 3: David Blanchflower, John Edwards stood on a lawn in Louisiana
Speaker 3: and he said, there's two Americas this political election we
Speaker 3: just had. What does it say about two Americas our disaggregation?
Speaker 4: Well, what a great question. Tom.
Speaker 9: I mean, I think the question going forward is whether
Speaker 9: people are going to be able to deliver on what
Speaker 9: they say they plan to do, and whether the people
Speaker 9: who voted for things are going to get what they expect.
Speaker 9: And I think the answer to that is it's pretty
Speaker 9: darned unlikely. I mean, we're going to talk a bit
Speaker 9: about tariffs, we're also going to talk about inflation and unemployment.
Speaker 4: And I worked on this, Tom, with the sort of.
Speaker 9: Analysis that I did, and the evidence there was that
Speaker 9: people really didn't like unemployment. Roughly a one percent point
Speaker 9: rise in unemployment was five times worse than a one
Speaker 9: percent point rise in inflation.
Speaker 4: Well that turns out to be wrong. And I think
Speaker 4: the way I would think of it is, and I
Speaker 4: never really, I never expected to be saying.
Speaker 9: This, people seem to really not like inflation. So if
Speaker 9: that's what you really don't like, it must mean that
Speaker 9: you really prefer unemployment.
Speaker 4: And so we have this great dilemma.
Speaker 9: Well, okay, if inflation's bad, then there's ways we can
Speaker 9: get rid of it.
Speaker 4: The ways we can get rid of it.
Speaker 9: Is to raise interest rates and to generate unemployment, and
Speaker 9: that will get inflation.
Speaker 4: So I think that's really interesting.
Speaker 9: The other thing which is kind of interesting, I think
Speaker 9: as an old time central banker, is that inflation is
Speaker 9: not what people are really focused on. They've actually focused
Speaker 9: on price levels. So price levels are the big deal,
Speaker 9: even though you talk about inflation being relatively low. You know,
Speaker 9: the way I always think of it, prices are one
Speaker 9: hundred and year one, they go to one hundred and
Speaker 9: ten inflations ten percent, and then in the next year
Speaker 9: it goes to one hundred and ten inflation zero.
Speaker 4: But everybody's hung up. So we're really in a.
Speaker 9: World where essentially people I don't think express things in
Speaker 9: quite the way they find the consequences that are coming.
Speaker 9: And if you put, if you impose, Charis will talk
Speaker 9: about that too. So this is a world of oh
Speaker 9: my goodness, me, I didn't really understand this, But if
Speaker 9: you voted for this, then there's going to be consequence.
Speaker 5: Let's do this.
Speaker 4: It's like the consequences.
Speaker 3: Paul wants to get to terrorists with Danny Blanchard the
Speaker 3: book Folks, More Accessible is not working?
Speaker 5: Where have all the good jobs gone?
Speaker 3: That's the heart I get you.
Speaker 5: Blanched Flower is recent the.
Speaker 9: Heart of it, right, Yeah, I mean you go back
Speaker 9: to the heart of it, I think is where have
Speaker 9: all the good paying jobs gone?
Speaker 4: And in a sense, what I.
Speaker 9: Think what you see is a big bunch of America
Speaker 9: says we have not been doing well. We've had a
Speaker 9: you know, we've had inflation rising. He's not kept up,
Speaker 9: kept pace with it. And it's a shout and a
Speaker 9: cry for help. But obviously there are issues we've We've
Speaker 9: heard people talk about, oh well, you know, we'll abolish
Speaker 9: a barbaca, and we'll go after social Security, and we'll
Speaker 9: go after medicate and all kinds of things. How any
Speaker 9: of that is actually intended to help the well being
Speaker 9: of the working man and woman.
Speaker 3: Danny, let's get Paul Sweeney in here, because he understands
Speaker 3: the Harvard b Dartmouth and football thinks.
Speaker 7: I know, Danny, just for our listeners, for our viewers,
Speaker 7: any tariffs, can you give us your three cents on terriffs?
Speaker 7: What do they do?
Speaker 1: What did they not do?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 9: My good pal who's in the office two doors from me, Dougah,
Speaker 9: we've taught me most of what I know, and I
Speaker 9: think we're taught Tom most of what.
Speaker 4: He knows too.
Speaker 9: I mean the story I always had it in my
Speaker 9: head was that free trades are really good idea. I mean,
Speaker 9: I've come from I've come from the UK, as you gather,
Speaker 9: and obviously i've seen Brexit. Brexit was in essentially tree
Speaker 9: trade between a big group of countries with a barrier
Speaker 9: outside it, and the UK voted, which I think is
Speaker 9: the worst economic suicide know ever written to go to Brexit.
Speaker 9: And what we're going to see here is essentially whereth
Speaker 9: this happens, We're going to see tariffs. And what tariffs
Speaker 9: do is it generates winners and it generates losers. So
Speaker 9: winners would be those who see suddenly the price of
Speaker 9: goods rising and so there are rents to share. So
Speaker 9: imagine if you raise the price of cars, then the
Speaker 9: union say, well this is great because I can raise
Speaker 9: my I can raise my wages because the price of
Speaker 9: cars have risen, and I'm going to do really well.
Speaker 9: So the people for whom prices rise, they're going to
Speaker 9: do well. But for the consumer, prices will prices will rise,
Speaker 9: and that will hurt them. And the big question, and
Speaker 9: I think we should talk a little bit about, is well, first,
Speaker 9: what's what are other country is going to do? Is
Speaker 9: Mexico going to retaliate, the China going to retaliate, and
Speaker 9: then second, well can you can you go to substitute?
Speaker 9: So I've been through three hurricanes in the last three years,
Speaker 9: and one of the big things I recall was that
Speaker 9: you know Terris rose on aluminum or what happened. Well,
Speaker 9: nobody's buying aluminum windows anymore. They all buy a crylic right,
Speaker 9: So the question is can you substitute from those things?
Speaker 9: And in the long run is there going to be
Speaker 9: import substitution where you end up making your own stuff.
Speaker 9: But this is such a long run process that this
Speaker 9: is chaos.
Speaker 3: Jenny, I'm gotta get one more I got to get
Speaker 3: one more question in here before you go off to
Speaker 3: fight with Irwin today. Are we entering, even though we
Speaker 3: don't know it, just a further monopsony where there's a
Speaker 3: power of big business, a power of big corporations, a
Speaker 3: power of the rich guys.
Speaker 4: With this election, Well, it's it certainly seems that way.
Speaker 9: I mean that gath Elon Musk has moved into Marrow Lago.
Speaker 9: I mean, it certainly seems that way. But I do
Speaker 9: think that in a sense that the lesson I would
Speaker 9: draw in some ways from the UK. And the lesson
Speaker 9: I draw from from Liz Trust is that actually, yes,
Speaker 9: that may be true, but markets do stop people doing
Speaker 9: stupid stuff. So think about Liz Trust passes a set
Speaker 9: of stuff on the Friday, and basically it's done on Monday.
Speaker 9: So markets will respond to things. People will respond, and
Speaker 9: so yes, that that there's there's going to be one
Speaker 9: heck of an I agree, doesn't look like.
Speaker 5: We gotta go.
Speaker 3: We gotta go, Danny, but I promised me, I want
Speaker 3: you to come out next Bank of England meeting to
Speaker 3: push against Catherine Mann trying to keep rates high in
Speaker 3: the United Kingdom.
Speaker 5: That will get That's like Cardiff, that will get on going.
Speaker 3: That's like Cardiff taken on Man City.
Speaker 5: I mean, that's what we're talking about.
Speaker 9: Well, I would always lose that game, so I would
Speaker 9: hopefully win this one.
Speaker 5: A professor, thank you so much.
Speaker 3: Danny bleishfar with us from Dartmouth College here just outstanding
Speaker 3: on the wage of America.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 3: Wendy Schiller in red today of the Taupman Center joining us,
Speaker 3: of course, professor of Civics for all of America. Wendy,
Speaker 3: what a perfect time to talk to you about the
Speaker 3: heritage of Senate independence. John Thune is labeled a I know,
Speaker 3: but talk to me. Take me from say in the
Speaker 3: modern era, from Senator Bird of West Virginia over to
Speaker 3: the Senator from the Dakota Is how independent is Senate independence?
Speaker 8: Well, Tom, the Senate has the capacity to be totally
Speaker 8: independent from the President and even you know, very independent
Speaker 8: from the House. But partisanship has enveloped our sort of
Speaker 8: separation of powers and our branches of government in the
Speaker 8: last twenty to twenty five years, so that this institutional
Speaker 8: break between the president is elected separately.
Speaker 1: It's unlike most.
Speaker 8: Of the other industrialized countries of the world where the
Speaker 8: you know, the majority party in the legislature chooses the
Speaker 8: prime minister who runs the country. So we have separation,
Speaker 8: excuse me, And the partisanship has really shrunk that separation.
Speaker 8: So now when you run for the House and when
Speaker 8: you run for the Senate, especially if you're a Republican,
Speaker 8: you really have to swear an oath of allegiance to
Speaker 8: the presidential candidate and promised to carry out their agenda
Speaker 8: in a way that is really more pronounced than it's
Speaker 8: ever been before.
Speaker 7: Excuse me, so, professor, taking that as a backdrop here,
Speaker 7: how do you think about some of these cabinet appointments
Speaker 7: that we've seen from President Trump? Here it seems to
Speaker 7: be I guess one of the commonalities is loyalty, professed
Speaker 7: loyalty to President Trump. What do you make of some
Speaker 7: of his appointments?
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean this is really in a second term.
Speaker 8: You'd expect sort of a president to have made connections
Speaker 8: and replace the first set of cabinet people with a
Speaker 8: sort of more loyal group in a second term. That's
Speaker 8: not you know, something that's surprising. Up until yesterday, I
Speaker 8: was saying, this looks like any other Republican administration.
Speaker 10: George W.
Speaker 8: Bush, George Herbert Walker Busch, these nominees would be fairly
Speaker 8: typical for anybody. So I found that a little bit surprising,
Speaker 8: given that Trump is not typical in any way. But
Speaker 8: you know, with Tulcy, Gabert and Matt gets on the
Speaker 8: list one to run the intelligence and want to run
Speaker 8: be the nation's top law enforcement officer. That, I mean,
Speaker 8: that was surprising, and that sort of suggests to me.
Speaker 10: That he's using that Justice.
Speaker 8: Department to nominations to really get back at people who
Speaker 8: investigated him.
Speaker 10: We'll see if Matt Gates gets confirmed.
Speaker 8: He did resign from the House yesterday, so that's pretty
Speaker 8: big confidence that he's going to get confirmed. Will the
Speaker 8: Senate exercise its advice and consent constitution responsibility?
Speaker 3: Okay, we'll get out the Brown University Crystal Ball here,
Speaker 3: I mean, Wenda Schiller. What are we going to observe?
Speaker 3: Are we going to have like Sam Irvin and Howard
Speaker 3: Baker in a smokefield Senate room and mister Gates is
Speaker 3: going to sit there with X number of people lined
Speaker 3: up Republicans and Democrats?
Speaker 5: And what do they do? Do they ask him questions?
Speaker 3: How does the process work?
Speaker 5: What will we visually see?
Speaker 8: Well, Tom and Ball, I can tell you that I'm
Speaker 8: not sure you'll visually see anything. It really depends on
Speaker 8: how John Thune has now been elected as a Senate
Speaker 8: Republican leader to withstand the Trump pressure to really adjourn
Speaker 8: and let him just do recess appointments, which would make
Speaker 8: these people sort of temporary until the end.
Speaker 10: Of the Congress in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 8: That Trump likes that, you know, he likes a little
Speaker 8: bit of instability in his cabinet. So I don't know
Speaker 8: if the Senate can withstand that pressure. If they don't,
Speaker 8: they'll have very quick softball hearings in the first week
Speaker 8: after Trump is inaugurated, probably and get these cabinet nominees,
Speaker 8: you know, situated within just maybe a week or two.
Speaker 10: You will not see extended hearings.
Speaker 8: Trump will put too much pressure on Fune, and if
Speaker 8: Pune wants to maintain that constitutional prerogative, in the face
Speaker 8: of that pressure, he'll have to act very soply to
Speaker 8: confirm all of Trump's pigs.
Speaker 3: Paul wants to jump in here, but I got to
Speaker 3: ask this, So you're telling me within the Maelstone right now,
Speaker 3: the Lieutenant Colonel Gibbard and a turning gets will go
Speaker 3: through a normal process.
Speaker 8: Well when I say normal, I don't mean a deep
Speaker 8: and thoughtful investigation and hearings. But I think that Thune,
Speaker 8: in order to maintain the Senate's bargaining power.
Speaker 10: With the president at all.
Speaker 8: And what's the point of being a senator if you're
Speaker 8: just going to sort of lay down and say, forget it,
Speaker 8: We're not going to do any of our constitutional responsibilities.
Speaker 10: It's not much fun.
Speaker 8: I mean, I can't imagine most senators want to act
Speaker 8: that way. But he will have to get these things
Speaker 8: through very quickly because Trump has a lot of momentum
Speaker 8: right now.
Speaker 10: And you know, each of these leaders in these congresss
Speaker 10: they depend on Trump. You know, Mike Johnson, John Thune.
Speaker 8: If Trump really raises a ruckus, who knows if the
Speaker 8: Senate Republicans stay with Thune.
Speaker 10: So it's a very unstable time.
Speaker 8: So they have to appease the president and try to
Speaker 8: maintain their constitutional powers.
Speaker 10: We're going to see just how good John Thune is
Speaker 10: at that in the coming months, Professor.
Speaker 7: Are there checks and balances in this government?
Speaker 2: Here?
Speaker 7: We've got a Republican president, Senate, now House, and one
Speaker 7: could argue a Supreme Court. Are there viable checks and
Speaker 7: balances on this president?
Speaker 8: The Madisonian checks and balance relies on the ambition of
Speaker 8: individuals in these institutions, the House, the Senate, the Supreme
Speaker 8: Court to enjoy their power to recognize that they have
Speaker 8: a role in the system, that their voice should be
Speaker 8: heard visa VI the president. If partisanship wholly subsumes that
Speaker 8: and they abdicate that power, that responsibility, there will be
Speaker 8: literally no institutional checks and molts.
Speaker 7: So is that a material risk here going forward over
Speaker 7: the next to four years? How do you think about that?
Speaker 7: Because one could spin some crazy scenarios.
Speaker 8: Yes, I mean you could see an attempt to sort
Speaker 8: of unravel and undermine the sort of institutional framework that
Speaker 8: we've been operating under for a long time. You could
Speaker 8: see that if there was coordination and agreement across all
Speaker 8: Trump cabinet people and Trump himself. But he is someone
Speaker 8: who is a little bit mercurial. He changes his mind
Speaker 8: a lot, and he's also.
Speaker 10: You know, creating a team of rivals.
Speaker 8: I can't imagine that Jdvan is happy about either Marco
Speaker 8: Rubio or.
Speaker 10: Even Matt Gates being in the cabinet.
Speaker 8: Right these are competitors for twenty twenty eight theoretically, so
Speaker 8: they'll be competition and discord as there always is. And
Speaker 8: Trump likes that, he fomens that he feeds off it.
Speaker 8: So do I think it will be systematic?
Speaker 10: And what they can do.
Speaker 4: No.
Speaker 10: Do I think there'll be some chaos?
Speaker 3: Yes, Professor Schiller got one more question. It's an audible
Speaker 3: George Will with a brilliant essay in the Washington Post.
Speaker 3: Whether you agree or disagreement doesn't matter. He pulls out
Speaker 3: the history of Wendy Schiller. Like no one, George Will
Speaker 3: goes where I was a couple days ago. Professor Schiller saying,
Speaker 3: you know what twenty twenty eight is. Bore this before
Speaker 3: the census of two thousand and thirty. His numbers, his
Speaker 3: guestimates on where the electoral votes are in two thousand
Speaker 3: and thirty is still a massive shift to the south.
Speaker 3: It's just unbelievable how the electoral votes built in Florida, Arizona,
Speaker 3: et cetera, at the expense of New York, Illinois and California.
Speaker 3: Are we going to see that radical of an electoral
Speaker 3: shift six years out?
Speaker 8: You know, I think we've learned that the elections in
Speaker 8: America are now very much about the candidates themselves. It's
Speaker 8: a choice between two alternatives, and we've seen an interesting
Speaker 8: candidate win now twice who isn't typical. I don't know
Speaker 8: if we can make any assumptions about how people will
Speaker 8: vote until we know the choice, set the idea that
Speaker 8: a Midwestern governor will be the choice and easily win.
Speaker 8: I think in twenty thirty two, I think you're pointing
Speaker 8: to a point that it's probably going to return to
Speaker 8: the South.
Speaker 10: But remember Bill Clinton and.
Speaker 8: Al Gore quote unquote saved the Democrats in nineteen ninety two,
Speaker 8: So the Democrats themselves returned to the South to win
Speaker 8: the presidency not that long ago, so it won't be
Speaker 8: surprising if they have to do the same thing in
Speaker 8: twenty thirty two.
Speaker 3: Whendy, I learn more from you in the last four minutes,
Speaker 3: six minutes than all the hot air of the last
Speaker 3: three days on Senate confirmation. Just hugely valuable, Wendy Schiller.
Speaker 3: They're definitive of Brown University in the Taalbyn Center.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
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Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 3: You take a look at the front pages that Lisa
Speaker 3: Matteo hour starts strong, Lisa, what do you have.
Speaker 1: All right, I'm probably gonna get you in trouble for this,
Speaker 1: but a new place to take missus kean shopping. A
Speaker 1: temporary Louis Vuitton store. It's on Billionaire's Row in Manhattan. Okay,
Speaker 1: the flagship stores across the street they're getting renovated, so
Speaker 1: now they have this temporary store opening. But it's got
Speaker 1: the fifty foot ceilings. It has le cafe where you
Speaker 1: can sit down for luxury snacking.
Speaker 5: That's the biggest racket going.
Speaker 1: You don't want the waffles with caviar for forty eight dollars?
Speaker 5: Are you serious?
Speaker 1: Yes, I'm telling you a cheeseburger thirty two bucks. It
Speaker 1: has a bar, it has a library space, so it's
Speaker 1: all there for you to just relax.
Speaker 4: But just temporary store.
Speaker 7: Is can be there for like a couple of years.
Speaker 1: A couple of years.
Speaker 3: You're complete folks in New York City. It is iconic
Speaker 3: in this time of year. Special fifty seventh Street at
Speaker 3: Fifth Avenue. At least it'll be clear they're tearing down
Speaker 3: their corner store, Is that right?
Speaker 1: They're renovating. It's going to take a couple of years
Speaker 1: and rebuilding it and rebuilding it up. So now they're
Speaker 1: in the former Nike air. Nike used to know where
Speaker 1: that is? Ok so there before and yes, correct, correct
Speaker 1: you are okay, yeah, familiar with that. He knows exactly.
Speaker 1: But they still have the shopping jewelry accessories men's wear, yes,
Speaker 1: women's I.
Speaker 5: Learned yesterday Van Cleef is taking a firm that's the
Speaker 5: mother is it?
Speaker 3: That cif Is is a thing with gold and redland
Speaker 3: stones from Africa?
Speaker 5: I don't know what. It's jewelry I can't afford.
Speaker 7: Okay.
Speaker 3: And they're taking a firm, which shocked me in that
Speaker 3: European luxuries figuring out a firm and you know, all
Speaker 3: the rest of the stuff that everybody dies with today.
Speaker 5: Can we move on?
Speaker 3: You can?
Speaker 1: I hope missus Kane was listening. Okay, we've been talking
Speaker 1: about you know, if you want to date someone, just
Speaker 1: go to a bar. What happened with that whole thing? Okay?
Speaker 1: A lot of singles are taking that a consideration. The
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal just great insight into it. They're saying
Speaker 1: singles are forgetting the dating apps. They want to go out,
Speaker 1: but their skills are a little rusty. They don't know
Speaker 1: how to go out and talk to people. They don't
Speaker 1: know how to make eye contact. They think it's awkward.
Speaker 1: They say, social norms around dating, it's not the same.
Speaker 1: People think it's creepy when you approach someone, and they
Speaker 1: say that.
Speaker 11: Describes me from about nineteen seventy one apps.
Speaker 7: So they don't know. They've kind of they don't. They
Speaker 7: haven't developed the dating skills. Is that kind of what
Speaker 7: they just they forgot.
Speaker 1: It's been so long and they had the dating apps
Speaker 1: and they're just used to someone kind of picking it
Speaker 1: for them. So they're saying, it's hard to go to
Speaker 1: a bar and make eye kind of because everyone's on
Speaker 1: their phone and no one's paying attention.
Speaker 5: They're just phones and phone.
Speaker 1: Yes, so they did have some advice. So here's the
Speaker 1: advice from the dating culture. Okay, you put away your phone,
Speaker 1: you remove your earbuds, you smile, and you say I
Speaker 1: don't believe we've met yet. Oh that would work work?
Speaker 9: No, No, that would work all right.
Speaker 1: They're saying, got to get back in the game.
Speaker 8: I don't know.
Speaker 1: Yes, that's the snip.
Speaker 4: God, let's.
Speaker 5: Ken. Is that how the Fella family started?
Speaker 11: Though it is not another bar story with our global
Speaker 11: technical director continue.
Speaker 1: Big thing happening today, the last supermoon of the year. Okay,
Speaker 1: he illuminated. Yeah, you've already seen it because it's already started,
Speaker 1: you know, to come out. Yes, correct, it came out
Speaker 1: this morning. It'll continue before if you hours sunrise Sunday.
Speaker 1: But the biggest peak, if you want to see it,
Speaker 1: the biggest, the brightest, it's four twenty nine pm Eastern
Speaker 1: time tomorrow, so keep that in your calendars. But full
Speaker 1: moons in November it's the beaver moon. And so why
Speaker 1: they call it the beaver moon. It's not exactly clear
Speaker 1: the origin, but it's actually because mid fall is when
Speaker 1: the hunter set beaver traps before the swamps start to
Speaker 1: stream to freeze over. That's where it came from. The
Speaker 1: beaver is more active in November with full moons.
Speaker 5: Do you see a bigger tide?
Speaker 7: That's a great question.
Speaker 8: I don't know.
Speaker 7: I don't know, but I will nine tomorrow. I will
Speaker 7: be at the short I'm getting the early flight back
Speaker 7: from Boston tomorrow.
Speaker 5: So you have the golf stream, Yes, I do.
Speaker 7: We'll be zipping right into Belmore Airportborough Bellmar, Bellmar, Yeah,
Speaker 7: that's the little airport by my place.
Speaker 3: I just yeah, I'm on the I can't even get
Speaker 3: on the asella, I'm on the slow train. The when
Speaker 3: I get back like PM next.
Speaker 1: Okay, finally Mark zucker teaming up with the rapper Tee Pain.
Speaker 1: It's a new version of a hit Little John song.
Speaker 1: But he's not rapping. Okay, but if you remember, back
Speaker 1: in twenty two, two thousand and two, Little John the
Speaker 1: East Side Boys came out with get Low, So here
Speaker 1: it is if you want to hear from back in
Speaker 1: the day. All right, okay, that was the original two
Speaker 1: thousand and two. But Mark Zuckerberg, who was a big
Speaker 1: fan of the song. Okay, but when he first met
Speaker 1: his wife Priscilla, it was playing twenty one years ago.
Speaker 1: That's how they fell in love apparently, so every year
Speaker 1: he plays it on their anniversary. But he went to
Speaker 1: do something different this year, so he teamed up with
Speaker 1: te Pain to do a little remake. Take a listenin.
Speaker 5: Logan.
Speaker 1: Okay, So he's not rapping, as you can tell, but
Speaker 1: he has the vocals. He's a little crooner. It has
Speaker 1: the raw lyrics. What I had I had a cut out.
Speaker 1: It was very hard to hint it. Yes, it's very raw.
Speaker 1: It sounds beautiful, but he's his wife called it very romantic.
Speaker 5: That was romantic, very romantic. I didn't know this.
Speaker 3: I'm glad you brought this up because after thoughts calling
Speaker 3: me t pain.
Speaker 4: And it's not.
Speaker 11: It's about the dishwasher and the unloading of said dishwasher.
Speaker 5: I'm te pain. It's Tallahasse pain. That's where it comes from.
Speaker 3: Okay, every seriously, every time you come on, I learned
Speaker 3: something's great.
Speaker 5: What was the line for to pick up in a bar?
Speaker 1: I don't believe we've met yet.
Speaker 5: Lisa Mattea for the newspapers today. You can't do better
Speaker 5: than that.
Speaker 3: Lisa Matteo there, and of course we're from Boston and
Speaker 3: Lisa Mateo driving the show forward.
Speaker 5: Here.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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