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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

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Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on Apple Carplayer or Android Auto

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Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Mister ed Yard Denny and he joins us this morning,

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Speaker 3: and I gotta go to you on bitcoin at ninety

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Speaker 3: three thousand. How do you invest or speculate in something

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Speaker 3: where there's no underlying there's no profit, there's no free

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Speaker 3: cash flow, there's no history of gold.

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Speaker 4: How do you do that?

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Speaker 5: Ed Yard Denny?

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Speaker 6: I guess you just have to be a believer. It's

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Speaker 6: kind of a faith asset. The view that there'll be

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Speaker 6: more and more buyers of this particular asset just keeps

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Speaker 6: driving it up. And I guess in terms of trading it,

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Speaker 6: all you can really do is be a technical analyst.

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Speaker 6: You know, there's a little consolidation pattern there. Then Trump

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Speaker 6: wins and it goes straight up. So you know, I

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Speaker 6: think a lot of it's a news dependent and if

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Speaker 6: the news is favorable, it goes up. That's kind of

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Speaker 6: the story, Denny.

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Speaker 3: America has turned upside down. Republicans, Democrats, Independence, We're going

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Speaker 3: from press release to press release, some thrilled, some.

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Speaker 5: Not, etc.

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Speaker 3: Denny, how do you invest in this if you have

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Speaker 3: a minimum time hold of three years? How do we

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Speaker 3: emotionally get through the political maelstrom?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think, first and foremost, it's pretty well known

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Speaker 6: that the best way to invest is to ignore politics,

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Speaker 6: or at least not let your personal political views influence

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Speaker 6: your stock portfolio. Market tends to go up whether it's

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Speaker 6: Democrats or Republicans in the White House. I guess sometimes

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Speaker 6: we have to be a little bit more specific about

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Speaker 6: the extent to which they're Also the same party that's

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Speaker 6: in the White House is also in Congress. But all

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Speaker 6: in all, the market's pe time z And as long

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Speaker 6: as the earnings outlook is for more growth, and the

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Speaker 6: longer is that outlook for growth, the higher the pe.

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Speaker 6: And that's kind of the environment we're in right now.

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Speaker 7: So, Ed, how did your outlook on this market change

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Speaker 7: if at all with the election last.

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Speaker 6: Two Yeah, more bullish, not for political reasons, but simply

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Speaker 6: because I think animal spirits have been unleashed. Trump is

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Speaker 6: definitely viewed as being a more pro business president than

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Speaker 6: Harris would have been. He wants to cut taxes again

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Speaker 6: and corporations as well as cut some taxes on lower

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Speaker 6: income workers. He wants to deregulate, and then I think

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Speaker 6: the market it is also excited about the possibility that

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Speaker 6: some of these intractable geopolitical crises might have a chance

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Speaker 6: of getting resolved as kind of Trump does his deal

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Speaker 6: deal making magic, perhaps between Ukraine and Russia, and I

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Speaker 6: don't think it's going to be deal making in the

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Speaker 6: Middle East. I think it's going to be sort of

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Speaker 6: a free ticket for the Israelis to take out Iran ed.

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Speaker 7: What are there any sectors that kind of jump out

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Speaker 7: at you that might be particular beneficiaries of this new

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Speaker 7: Republican led government.

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Speaker 6: Well, I'm not too creative here. I'm still recommending that.

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Speaker 6: I'm still recommending the same sectors that we've been recommending

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Speaker 6: for a while here. Three out of four of work

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Speaker 6: one hasn't. And the recommendation is to overweight technology, including

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Speaker 6: communications services, kind of counting that as one sector that's

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Speaker 6: worked extremely well and I think should continue to do well,

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Speaker 6: so we'd overweight that. Industrials has done very well, Financials

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Speaker 6: and the only clunker has been.

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Speaker 3: Energy and Jo Danny, give me a MAG seven update.

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Speaker 3: Dan Ives is in the house. He's been the acolyte

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Speaker 3: of Apple forever, Planet here, forever. Take a sector view

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Speaker 3: on MAG seven.

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Speaker 5: Can you add shares? Here? Do you hold? Do you

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Speaker 5: lighten up? Well?

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Speaker 6: I think lightning up hasn't been a wise thing to do.

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Speaker 5: Thank everybody's joining that, though.

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Speaker 6: Everybody's scratching their head about why Warren Buffett's getting out

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Speaker 6: of Apple?

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Speaker 5: Why is he getting out of Apple?

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Speaker 6: Dr That's one of the great mysteries of life these days,

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Speaker 6: is why he's scrambling to raise so much cash. And

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Speaker 6: one of the interpretations is he knows something, or he

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Speaker 6: thinks he knows something about things turning sour pretty quickly here,

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Speaker 6: and he likes to buy things cheap, And may simply

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Speaker 6: be that is that he just views it not only

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Speaker 6: doesn't have anything to buy with the cash he had,

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Speaker 6: but some of these assets that he have of appreciated

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Speaker 6: to such an extent that he just wants to roll

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Speaker 6: it into cash. And the cash, by the way, is

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Speaker 6: looking pretty good. It's still yielding three and a half

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Speaker 6: to four and a half percent, So I think I

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Speaker 6: think it's an inscrutable situation and I can't, but the

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Speaker 6: life may figure it out. I guess after the fact

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Speaker 6: that everything blows apart, we'll say that Warren Bucket was

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Speaker 6: the only one's thought coming.

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Speaker 3: There was a wonder child out of the Midwest pre

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Speaker 3: World War two, and he took some exams of Paul

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Speaker 3: out of the Blue to get into Harvard without applying

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Speaker 3: to Harvard. Harvard took him full scholarship, the whole thing

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Speaker 3: sterling career, and he ended up at a small school

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Speaker 3: in New Haven. And James Tobin, even if you disagreed

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Speaker 3: with him, was always this light, this light of intellect

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Speaker 3: and size. And he is the one in nineteen seventy

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Speaker 3: seven with James Mead who said nominal gdpte matters. This

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Speaker 3: was revolutionary at the time, to this day hugely controversial.

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Speaker 3: Edgyard Denny carries his spirit forward by looking at animal spirit, which,

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Speaker 3: in the definition of Bloomberg's surveillance is real GDP plus inflation.

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Speaker 3: Ed Yard Denny, what would James Tobin say about the

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Speaker 3: new animal spirit of a Trump administration?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think he would approve of the concept, though

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Speaker 6: not necessarily the context in which it occurs. I mean,

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Speaker 6: animal spirits was a phrase that was concocted by This

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Speaker 6: is a Hero, which is John Maynard Keynes and John

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Speaker 6: Maynard Kaines described it as spontaneous optimism. And I think

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Speaker 6: Tobin was very much of a liberal and a Democrat,

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Speaker 6: so I think he would prefer to describe animal spirits

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Speaker 6: as occurring under a democratic rather than a Republican administration.

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Speaker 6: But he was objective and it is what it is.

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Speaker 6: I mean, we have seen so far spontaneous optimism, animal

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Speaker 6: spirits with the election of President Trump. Some of that

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Speaker 6: maybe that the election turned out to be not even close.

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Speaker 6: It wasn't contested, so it was over with and done.

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Speaker 6: But on the other hand, Trump's policies are good for

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Speaker 6: nominal GDP for the most part, though there clearly are

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Speaker 6: some potential negatives.

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Speaker 3: When you work with Eric Wallerstein on this and you

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Speaker 3: get to the roaring twenties of Edyard Denny. Is it

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Speaker 3: as simple as high we underestimate revenue growth in American corporations.

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Speaker 6: Well, I'm not sure that the revenues is the issue.

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Speaker 6: Revenues I think are going to be okay, but revenues

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Speaker 6: are generated on a global basis, and while the US

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Speaker 6: economy looks pretty good, good actually stands out compared to

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Speaker 6: the rest of the world, China, Europe, some of these

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Speaker 6: other areas look pretty weak. It's really all about earnings.

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Speaker 6: The profit margin is going to automatically go up when Trump.

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Speaker 6: I think one of the first things they'll do is

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Speaker 6: get through Congress it cut of the corporate tax rate

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Speaker 6: from twenty one percent to fifteen percent. And then deregulation

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Speaker 6: is unknown. We don't know how much of it will

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Speaker 6: occur and how much will be reflected in profit margins.

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Speaker 6: But oh, by the way, before the election, we were

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Speaker 6: still talking about the roaring twenty twenties, figuring that productivity

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Speaker 6: is going to make a comeback no matter who's in

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Speaker 6: the White House.

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Speaker 7: And is inflation a concern here? I think some folks

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Speaker 7: are concerned that tariffs number two, you know, cuts in

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Speaker 7: tax rates could fuel inflation.

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Speaker 8: Is that a concern of yours?

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Speaker 6: Well? I think on balance, when you include the potential

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Speaker 6: for deregulation and tax cuts, that may be sort of

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Speaker 6: a wash. But yeah, I have to be concerned about it.

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Speaker 6: We all have to be concerned about it. The bond

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Speaker 6: markets certainly concerned about it. My friends, the bond vigilanis

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Speaker 6: have taken the bond deal up by about seventy seventy

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Speaker 6: five basis points since the FED cut the FED funds

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Speaker 6: rate by seventy five basis points. So somebody's wrong here,

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Speaker 6: and the bond market's basically saying, no, Moss, we don't

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Speaker 6: need any rate cuts because the economy is doing well

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Speaker 6: and the so called neutral rate is higher than Fed

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Speaker 6: officials believe, as evidenced by the strength of the economy.

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Speaker 7: So, Ed, what do you think the Fed will do?

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Speaker 7: And what do you think the Fed maybe should do?

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Speaker 6: The Fed should do nothing, which is what they should

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Speaker 6: have done last week, but they just won't listen to me.

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Speaker 5: I don't know why.

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Speaker 6: What is that They've got their own agenda. And look,

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Speaker 6: ever since Jackson holes the speech that Powell gave was

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Speaker 6: extraordinarily dubblish. He was almost wokeish, reminiscent of the kind

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Speaker 6: of folk just an unemployment that we had before the

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Speaker 6: inflation surge of twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 6: So I think we are seeing some stickiness in the

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Speaker 6: inflation rate, the so called supercore inflation rate that not

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Speaker 6: too long ago Paul said was a key number. Suddenly

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Speaker 6: he is ignoring.

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Speaker 3: That Edgiar Denny, we got to get it on the record.

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Speaker 3: You've just been you know, with our question the equity

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Speaker 3: strategist of the last twenty four months, I got futures

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Speaker 3: at six thousand and twenty two. Remind us, Edgar Denny,

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Speaker 3: where we are with your seven percent growth rate in

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Speaker 3: one three Dare I say in ten years?

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Speaker 6: Well, when when Trump was elected, we thought about it.

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Speaker 6: We thought about the animal spirits and what could happen

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Speaker 6: to earnings as a result of the profit margin, and

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Speaker 6: we turn more bullish. The reality is we haven't been

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Speaker 6: bullish enough, and we've been among the most bullish. But

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Speaker 6: so now we're looking for sixty one hundred by the

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Speaker 6: end of the year on the S and P five hundred.

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Speaker 6: That's almost a layup. And then I think we're then

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Speaker 6: we're looking for seven thousand by the end of next year,

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Speaker 6: and eight thousand by the end of twenty twenty six,

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Speaker 6: and eight to ten thousand by the end of the decade,

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Speaker 6: probably closer to ten than to eight.

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Speaker 3: I want you to fold this, folks of doctor Yard

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Speaker 3: Denny with doctor Manil yesterday, to have Alicia manel on

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Speaker 3: yesterday on the failure of our retirement plan, and yeah,

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Speaker 3: we got to put more money aside. But mostly what

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Speaker 3: we have to do is listen to Ed yard Denny.

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Speaker 3: If you're scared stiff, you're in.

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Speaker 5: Cash, you're in bonds.

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Speaker 3: Maybe you can get the confidence of Yard Denny by

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Speaker 3: looking at three years and five years carefully to the

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Speaker 3: kind of vector, the kind of glide path he sees.

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Speaker 3: Edjar Denny.

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Speaker 5: Thank you.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to The Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast live weekday afternoons

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Speaker 2: from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on Apple car

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Speaker 2: Play and Android Otto with a Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 2: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Danny Blenchflower with us from Dartmouth thirty years The Wage Curve.

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Speaker 5: Was his book.

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Speaker 3: It changed the discussion of aggregation. Do you sum everything

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Speaker 3: together or do you have the courage to disaggregate? Like

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Speaker 3: Blanchflower is saying, how does the fact that people can

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Speaker 3: migrate from New Mexico to New Hampshire change our economics?

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Speaker 3: David Blanchflower, John Edwards stood on a lawn in Louisiana

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Speaker 3: and he said, there's two Americas this political election we

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Speaker 3: just had. What does it say about two Americas our disaggregation?

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Speaker 4: Well, what a great question. Tom.

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Speaker 9: I mean, I think the question going forward is whether

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Speaker 9: people are going to be able to deliver on what

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Speaker 9: they say they plan to do, and whether the people

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Speaker 9: who voted for things are going to get what they expect.

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Speaker 9: And I think the answer to that is it's pretty

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Speaker 9: darned unlikely. I mean, we're going to talk a bit

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Speaker 9: about tariffs, we're also going to talk about inflation and unemployment.

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Speaker 4: And I worked on this, Tom, with the sort of.

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Speaker 9: Analysis that I did, and the evidence there was that

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Speaker 9: people really didn't like unemployment. Roughly a one percent point

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Speaker 9: rise in unemployment was five times worse than a one

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Speaker 9: percent point rise in inflation.

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Speaker 4: Well that turns out to be wrong. And I think

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Speaker 4: the way I would think of it is, and I

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Speaker 4: never really, I never expected to be saying.

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Speaker 9: This, people seem to really not like inflation. So if

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Speaker 9: that's what you really don't like, it must mean that

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Speaker 9: you really prefer unemployment.

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Speaker 4: And so we have this great dilemma.

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Speaker 9: Well, okay, if inflation's bad, then there's ways we can

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Speaker 9: get rid of it.

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Speaker 4: The ways we can get rid of it.

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Speaker 9: Is to raise interest rates and to generate unemployment, and

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Speaker 9: that will get inflation.

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Speaker 4: So I think that's really interesting.

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Speaker 9: The other thing which is kind of interesting, I think

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Speaker 9: as an old time central banker, is that inflation is

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Speaker 9: not what people are really focused on. They've actually focused

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Speaker 9: on price levels. So price levels are the big deal,

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Speaker 9: even though you talk about inflation being relatively low. You know,

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Speaker 9: the way I always think of it, prices are one

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Speaker 9: hundred and year one, they go to one hundred and

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Speaker 9: ten inflations ten percent, and then in the next year

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Speaker 9: it goes to one hundred and ten inflation zero.

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Speaker 4: But everybody's hung up. So we're really in a.

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Speaker 9: World where essentially people I don't think express things in

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Speaker 9: quite the way they find the consequences that are coming.

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Speaker 9: And if you put, if you impose, Charis will talk

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Speaker 9: about that too. So this is a world of oh

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Speaker 9: my goodness, me, I didn't really understand this, But if

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Speaker 9: you voted for this, then there's going to be consequence.

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Speaker 5: Let's do this.

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Speaker 4: It's like the consequences.

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Speaker 3: Paul wants to get to terrorists with Danny Blanchard the

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Speaker 3: book Folks, More Accessible is not working?

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Speaker 5: Where have all the good jobs gone?

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Speaker 3: That's the heart I get you.

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Speaker 5: Blanched Flower is recent the.

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Speaker 9: Heart of it, right, Yeah, I mean you go back

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Speaker 9: to the heart of it, I think is where have

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Speaker 9: all the good paying jobs gone?

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Speaker 4: And in a sense, what I.

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Speaker 9: Think what you see is a big bunch of America

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Speaker 9: says we have not been doing well. We've had a

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Speaker 9: you know, we've had inflation rising. He's not kept up,

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Speaker 9: kept pace with it. And it's a shout and a

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Speaker 9: cry for help. But obviously there are issues we've We've

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Speaker 9: heard people talk about, oh well, you know, we'll abolish

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Speaker 9: a barbaca, and we'll go after social Security, and we'll

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Speaker 9: go after medicate and all kinds of things. How any

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Speaker 9: of that is actually intended to help the well being

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Speaker 9: of the working man and woman.

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Speaker 3: Danny, let's get Paul Sweeney in here, because he understands

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Speaker 3: the Harvard b Dartmouth and football thinks.

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Speaker 7: I know, Danny, just for our listeners, for our viewers,

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Speaker 7: any tariffs, can you give us your three cents on terriffs?

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Speaker 7: What do they do?

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Speaker 1: What did they not do?

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Speaker 4: Well?

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Speaker 9: My good pal who's in the office two doors from me, Dougah,

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Speaker 9: we've taught me most of what I know, and I

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Speaker 9: think we're taught Tom most of what.

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Speaker 4: He knows too.

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Speaker 9: I mean the story I always had it in my

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Speaker 9: head was that free trades are really good idea. I mean,

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Speaker 9: I've come from I've come from the UK, as you gather,

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Speaker 9: and obviously i've seen Brexit. Brexit was in essentially tree

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Speaker 9: trade between a big group of countries with a barrier

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Speaker 9: outside it, and the UK voted, which I think is

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Speaker 9: the worst economic suicide know ever written to go to Brexit.

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Speaker 9: And what we're going to see here is essentially whereth

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Speaker 9: this happens, We're going to see tariffs. And what tariffs

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Speaker 9: do is it generates winners and it generates losers. So

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Speaker 9: winners would be those who see suddenly the price of

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Speaker 9: goods rising and so there are rents to share. So

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Speaker 9: imagine if you raise the price of cars, then the

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Speaker 9: union say, well this is great because I can raise

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Speaker 9: my I can raise my wages because the price of

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Speaker 9: cars have risen, and I'm going to do really well.

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Speaker 9: So the people for whom prices rise, they're going to

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Speaker 9: do well. But for the consumer, prices will prices will rise,

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Speaker 9: and that will hurt them. And the big question, and

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Speaker 9: I think we should talk a little bit about, is well, first,

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Speaker 9: what's what are other country is going to do? Is

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Speaker 9: Mexico going to retaliate, the China going to retaliate, and

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Speaker 9: then second, well can you can you go to substitute?

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Speaker 9: So I've been through three hurricanes in the last three years,

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Speaker 9: and one of the big things I recall was that

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Speaker 9: you know Terris rose on aluminum or what happened. Well,

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Speaker 9: nobody's buying aluminum windows anymore. They all buy a crylic right,

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Speaker 9: So the question is can you substitute from those things?

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Speaker 9: And in the long run is there going to be

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Speaker 9: import substitution where you end up making your own stuff.

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Speaker 9: But this is such a long run process that this

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Speaker 9: is chaos.

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Speaker 3: Jenny, I'm gotta get one more I got to get

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Speaker 3: one more question in here before you go off to

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Speaker 3: fight with Irwin today. Are we entering, even though we

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Speaker 3: don't know it, just a further monopsony where there's a

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Speaker 3: power of big business, a power of big corporations, a

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Speaker 3: power of the rich guys.

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Speaker 4: With this election, Well, it's it certainly seems that way.

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Speaker 9: I mean that gath Elon Musk has moved into Marrow Lago.

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Speaker 9: I mean, it certainly seems that way. But I do

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Speaker 9: think that in a sense that the lesson I would

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Speaker 9: draw in some ways from the UK. And the lesson

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Speaker 9: I draw from from Liz Trust is that actually, yes,

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Speaker 9: that may be true, but markets do stop people doing

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Speaker 9: stupid stuff. So think about Liz Trust passes a set

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Speaker 9: of stuff on the Friday, and basically it's done on Monday.

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Speaker 9: So markets will respond to things. People will respond, and

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Speaker 9: so yes, that that there's there's going to be one

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Speaker 9: heck of an I agree, doesn't look like.

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Speaker 5: We gotta go.

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Speaker 3: We gotta go, Danny, but I promised me, I want

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Speaker 3: you to come out next Bank of England meeting to

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Speaker 3: push against Catherine Mann trying to keep rates high in

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Speaker 3: the United Kingdom.

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Speaker 5: That will get That's like Cardiff, that will get on going.

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Speaker 3: That's like Cardiff taken on Man City.

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Speaker 5: I mean, that's what we're talking about.

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Speaker 9: Well, I would always lose that game, so I would

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Speaker 9: hopefully win this one.

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Speaker 5: A professor, thank you so much.

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Speaker 3: Danny bleishfar with us from Dartmouth College here just outstanding

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Speaker 3: on the wage of America.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

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Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

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Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

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Speaker 2: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Wendy Schiller in red today of the Taupman Center joining us,

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Speaker 3: of course, professor of Civics for all of America. Wendy,

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Speaker 3: what a perfect time to talk to you about the

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Speaker 3: heritage of Senate independence. John Thune is labeled a I know,

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Speaker 3: but talk to me. Take me from say in the

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Speaker 3: modern era, from Senator Bird of West Virginia over to

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Speaker 3: the Senator from the Dakota Is how independent is Senate independence?

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Speaker 8: Well, Tom, the Senate has the capacity to be totally

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Speaker 8: independent from the President and even you know, very independent

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Speaker 8: from the House. But partisanship has enveloped our sort of

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Speaker 8: separation of powers and our branches of government in the

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Speaker 8: last twenty to twenty five years, so that this institutional

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Speaker 8: break between the president is elected separately.

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Speaker 1: It's unlike most.

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Speaker 8: Of the other industrialized countries of the world where the

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Speaker 8: you know, the majority party in the legislature chooses the

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Speaker 8: prime minister who runs the country. So we have separation,

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Speaker 8: excuse me, And the partisanship has really shrunk that separation.

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Speaker 8: So now when you run for the House and when

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Speaker 8: you run for the Senate, especially if you're a Republican,

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Speaker 8: you really have to swear an oath of allegiance to

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Speaker 8: the presidential candidate and promised to carry out their agenda

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Speaker 8: in a way that is really more pronounced than it's

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Speaker 8: ever been before.

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Speaker 7: Excuse me, so, professor, taking that as a backdrop here,

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Speaker 7: how do you think about some of these cabinet appointments

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Speaker 7: that we've seen from President Trump? Here it seems to

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Speaker 7: be I guess one of the commonalities is loyalty, professed

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Speaker 7: loyalty to President Trump. What do you make of some

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Speaker 7: of his appointments?

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Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean this is really in a second term.

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Speaker 8: You'd expect sort of a president to have made connections

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Speaker 8: and replace the first set of cabinet people with a

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Speaker 8: sort of more loyal group in a second term. That's

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Speaker 8: not you know, something that's surprising. Up until yesterday, I

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Speaker 8: was saying, this looks like any other Republican administration.

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Speaker 10: George W.

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Speaker 8: Bush, George Herbert Walker Busch, these nominees would be fairly

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Speaker 8: typical for anybody. So I found that a little bit surprising,

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Speaker 8: given that Trump is not typical in any way. But

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Speaker 8: you know, with Tulcy, Gabert and Matt gets on the

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Speaker 8: list one to run the intelligence and want to run

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Speaker 8: be the nation's top law enforcement officer. That, I mean,

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Speaker 8: that was surprising, and that sort of suggests to me.

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Speaker 10: That he's using that Justice.

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Speaker 8: Department to nominations to really get back at people who

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Speaker 8: investigated him.

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Speaker 10: We'll see if Matt Gates gets confirmed.

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Speaker 8: He did resign from the House yesterday, so that's pretty

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Speaker 8: big confidence that he's going to get confirmed. Will the

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Speaker 8: Senate exercise its advice and consent constitution responsibility?

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Speaker 3: Okay, we'll get out the Brown University Crystal Ball here,

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Speaker 3: I mean, Wenda Schiller. What are we going to observe?

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Speaker 3: Are we going to have like Sam Irvin and Howard

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Speaker 3: Baker in a smokefield Senate room and mister Gates is

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Speaker 3: going to sit there with X number of people lined

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Speaker 3: up Republicans and Democrats?

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Speaker 5: And what do they do? Do they ask him questions?

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Speaker 3: How does the process work?

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Speaker 5: What will we visually see?

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Speaker 8: Well, Tom and Ball, I can tell you that I'm

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Speaker 8: not sure you'll visually see anything. It really depends on

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Speaker 8: how John Thune has now been elected as a Senate

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Speaker 8: Republican leader to withstand the Trump pressure to really adjourn

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Speaker 8: and let him just do recess appointments, which would make

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Speaker 8: these people sort of temporary until the end.

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Speaker 10: Of the Congress in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 8: That Trump likes that, you know, he likes a little

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Speaker 8: bit of instability in his cabinet. So I don't know

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Speaker 8: if the Senate can withstand that pressure. If they don't,

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Speaker 8: they'll have very quick softball hearings in the first week

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Speaker 8: after Trump is inaugurated, probably and get these cabinet nominees,

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Speaker 8: you know, situated within just maybe a week or two.

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Speaker 10: You will not see extended hearings.

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Speaker 8: Trump will put too much pressure on Fune, and if

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Speaker 8: Pune wants to maintain that constitutional prerogative, in the face

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Speaker 8: of that pressure, he'll have to act very soply to

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Speaker 8: confirm all of Trump's pigs.

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Speaker 3: Paul wants to jump in here, but I got to

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Speaker 3: ask this, So you're telling me within the Maelstone right now,

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Speaker 3: the Lieutenant Colonel Gibbard and a turning gets will go

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Speaker 3: through a normal process.

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Speaker 8: Well when I say normal, I don't mean a deep

441
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 8: and thoughtful investigation and hearings. But I think that Thune,

442
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,440
Speaker 8: in order to maintain the Senate's bargaining power.

443
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 10: With the president at all.

444
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 8: And what's the point of being a senator if you're

445
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:11,919
Speaker 8: just going to sort of lay down and say, forget it,

446
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 8: We're not going to do any of our constitutional responsibilities.

447
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 10: It's not much fun.

448
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 8: I mean, I can't imagine most senators want to act

449
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 8: that way. But he will have to get these things

450
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 8: through very quickly because Trump has a lot of momentum

451
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 8: right now.

452
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 10: And you know, each of these leaders in these congresss

453
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 10: they depend on Trump. You know, Mike Johnson, John Thune.

454
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 8: If Trump really raises a ruckus, who knows if the

455
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 8: Senate Republicans stay with Thune.

456
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 10: So it's a very unstable time.

457
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:38,639
Speaker 8: So they have to appease the president and try to

458
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 8: maintain their constitutional powers.

459
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 10: We're going to see just how good John Thune is

460
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 10: at that in the coming months, Professor.

461
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 7: Are there checks and balances in this government?

462
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 2: Here?

463
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 7: We've got a Republican president, Senate, now House, and one

464
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,119
Speaker 7: could argue a Supreme Court. Are there viable checks and

465
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 7: balances on this president?

466
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 8: The Madisonian checks and balance relies on the ambition of

467
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 8: individuals in these institutions, the House, the Senate, the Supreme

468
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 8: Court to enjoy their power to recognize that they have

469
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 8: a role in the system, that their voice should be

470
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 8: heard visa VI the president. If partisanship wholly subsumes that

471
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,919
Speaker 8: and they abdicate that power, that responsibility, there will be

472
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 8: literally no institutional checks and molts.

473
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 7: So is that a material risk here going forward over

474
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 7: the next to four years? How do you think about that?

475
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 7: Because one could spin some crazy scenarios.

476
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 8: Yes, I mean you could see an attempt to sort

477
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 8: of unravel and undermine the sort of institutional framework that

478
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 8: we've been operating under for a long time. You could

479
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 8: see that if there was coordination and agreement across all

480
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 8: Trump cabinet people and Trump himself. But he is someone

481
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 8: who is a little bit mercurial. He changes his mind

482
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,880
Speaker 8: a lot, and he's also.

483
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 10: You know, creating a team of rivals.

484
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 8: I can't imagine that Jdvan is happy about either Marco

485
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 8: Rubio or.

486
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 10: Even Matt Gates being in the cabinet.

487
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,159
Speaker 8: Right these are competitors for twenty twenty eight theoretically, so

488
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 8: they'll be competition and discord as there always is. And

489
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 8: Trump likes that, he fomens that he feeds off it.

490
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 8: So do I think it will be systematic?

491
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 10: And what they can do.

492
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 4: No.

493
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 10: Do I think there'll be some chaos?

494
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 3: Yes, Professor Schiller got one more question. It's an audible

495
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:28,400
Speaker 3: George Will with a brilliant essay in the Washington Post.

496
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 3: Whether you agree or disagreement doesn't matter. He pulls out

497
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 3: the history of Wendy Schiller. Like no one, George Will

498
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 3: goes where I was a couple days ago. Professor Schiller saying,

499
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 3: you know what twenty twenty eight is. Bore this before

500
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 3: the census of two thousand and thirty. His numbers, his

501
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:49,719
Speaker 3: guestimates on where the electoral votes are in two thousand

502
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 3: and thirty is still a massive shift to the south.

503
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 3: It's just unbelievable how the electoral votes built in Florida, Arizona,

504
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 3: et cetera, at the expense of New York, Illinois and California.

505
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 3: Are we going to see that radical of an electoral

506
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 3: shift six years out?

507
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 8: You know, I think we've learned that the elections in

508
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 8: America are now very much about the candidates themselves. It's

509
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 8: a choice between two alternatives, and we've seen an interesting

510
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 8: candidate win now twice who isn't typical. I don't know

511
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 8: if we can make any assumptions about how people will

512
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 8: vote until we know the choice, set the idea that

513
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 8: a Midwestern governor will be the choice and easily win.

514
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 8: I think in twenty thirty two, I think you're pointing

515
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:36,879
Speaker 8: to a point that it's probably going to return to

516
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 8: the South.

517
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 10: But remember Bill Clinton and.

518
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 8: Al Gore quote unquote saved the Democrats in nineteen ninety two,

519
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 8: So the Democrats themselves returned to the South to win

520
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,159
Speaker 8: the presidency not that long ago, so it won't be

521
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 8: surprising if they have to do the same thing in

522
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 8: twenty thirty two.

523
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 3: Whendy, I learn more from you in the last four minutes,

524
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 3: six minutes than all the hot air of the last

525
00:27:56,640 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 3: three days on Senate confirmation. Just hugely valuable, Wendy Schiller.

526
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 3: They're definitive of Brown University in the Taalbyn Center.

527
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

528
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

529
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

530
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

531
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal.

532
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 3: You take a look at the front pages that Lisa

533
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 3: Matteo hour starts strong, Lisa, what do you have.

534
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 1: All right, I'm probably gonna get you in trouble for this,

535
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: but a new place to take missus kean shopping. A

536
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: temporary Louis Vuitton store. It's on Billionaire's Row in Manhattan. Okay,

537
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 1: the flagship stores across the street they're getting renovated, so

538
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 1: now they have this temporary store opening. But it's got

539
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: the fifty foot ceilings. It has le cafe where you

540
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 1: can sit down for luxury snacking.

541
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 5: That's the biggest racket going.

542
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 1: You don't want the waffles with caviar for forty eight dollars?

543
00:28:57,920 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 5: Are you serious?

544
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 1: Yes, I'm telling you a cheeseburger thirty two bucks. It

545
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 1: has a bar, it has a library space, so it's

546
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 1: all there for you to just relax.

547
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 4: But just temporary store.

548
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 7: Is can be there for like a couple of years.

549
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: A couple of years.

550
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 3: You're complete folks in New York City. It is iconic

551
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 3: in this time of year. Special fifty seventh Street at

552
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,959
Speaker 3: Fifth Avenue. At least it'll be clear they're tearing down

553
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 3: their corner store, Is that right?

554
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: They're renovating. It's going to take a couple of years

555
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 1: and rebuilding it and rebuilding it up. So now they're

556
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: in the former Nike air. Nike used to know where

557
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 1: that is? Ok so there before and yes, correct, correct

558
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 1: you are okay, yeah, familiar with that. He knows exactly.

559
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 1: But they still have the shopping jewelry accessories men's wear, yes,

560
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 1: women's I.

561
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 5: Learned yesterday Van Cleef is taking a firm that's the

562
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 5: mother is it?

563
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 3: That cif Is is a thing with gold and redland

564
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 3: stones from Africa?

565
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 5: I don't know what. It's jewelry I can't afford.

566
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 7: Okay.

567
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 3: And they're taking a firm, which shocked me in that

568
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 3: European luxuries figuring out a firm and you know, all

569
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 3: the rest of the stuff that everybody dies with today.

570
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 5: Can we move on?

571
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 3: You can?

572
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 1: I hope missus Kane was listening. Okay, we've been talking

573
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 1: about you know, if you want to date someone, just

574
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 1: go to a bar. What happened with that whole thing? Okay?

575
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 1: A lot of singles are taking that a consideration. The

576
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal just great insight into it. They're saying

577
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 1: singles are forgetting the dating apps. They want to go out,

578
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 1: but their skills are a little rusty. They don't know

579
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 1: how to go out and talk to people. They don't

580
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: know how to make eye contact. They think it's awkward.

581
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 1: They say, social norms around dating, it's not the same.

582
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 1: People think it's creepy when you approach someone, and they

583
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 1: say that.

584
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 11: Describes me from about nineteen seventy one apps.

585
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 7: So they don't know. They've kind of they don't. They

586
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 7: haven't developed the dating skills. Is that kind of what

587
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 7: they just they forgot.

588
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 1: It's been so long and they had the dating apps

589
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 1: and they're just used to someone kind of picking it

590
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 1: for them. So they're saying, it's hard to go to

591
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 1: a bar and make eye kind of because everyone's on

592
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 1: their phone and no one's paying attention.

593
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 5: They're just phones and phone.

594
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 1: Yes, so they did have some advice. So here's the

595
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 1: advice from the dating culture. Okay, you put away your phone,

596
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 1: you remove your earbuds, you smile, and you say I

597
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 1: don't believe we've met yet. Oh that would work work?

598
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 9: No, No, that would work all right.

599
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: They're saying, got to get back in the game.

600
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 8: I don't know.

601
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 1: Yes, that's the snip.

602
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 4: God, let's.

603
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 5: Ken. Is that how the Fella family started?

604
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 11: Though it is not another bar story with our global

605
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 11: technical director continue.

606
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 1: Big thing happening today, the last supermoon of the year. Okay,

607
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 1: he illuminated. Yeah, you've already seen it because it's already started,

608
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: you know, to come out. Yes, correct, it came out

609
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 1: this morning. It'll continue before if you hours sunrise Sunday.

610
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 1: But the biggest peak, if you want to see it,

611
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: the biggest, the brightest, it's four twenty nine pm Eastern

612
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 1: time tomorrow, so keep that in your calendars. But full

613
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 1: moons in November it's the beaver moon. And so why

614
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 1: they call it the beaver moon. It's not exactly clear

615
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 1: the origin, but it's actually because mid fall is when

616
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: the hunter set beaver traps before the swamps start to

617
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:25,719
Speaker 1: stream to freeze over. That's where it came from. The

618
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: beaver is more active in November with full moons.

619
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 5: Do you see a bigger tide?

620
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 7: That's a great question.

621
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 8: I don't know.

622
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 7: I don't know, but I will nine tomorrow. I will

623
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 7: be at the short I'm getting the early flight back

624
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 7: from Boston tomorrow.

625
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 5: So you have the golf stream, Yes, I do.

626
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 7: We'll be zipping right into Belmore Airportborough Bellmar, Bellmar, Yeah,

627
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 7: that's the little airport by my place.

628
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 3: I just yeah, I'm on the I can't even get

629
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 3: on the asella, I'm on the slow train. The when

630
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 3: I get back like PM next.

631
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 1: Okay, finally Mark zucker teaming up with the rapper Tee Pain.

632
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 1: It's a new version of a hit Little John song.

633
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 1: But he's not rapping. Okay, but if you remember, back

634
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 1: in twenty two, two thousand and two, Little John the

635
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 1: East Side Boys came out with get Low, So here

636
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: it is if you want to hear from back in

637
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 1: the day. All right, okay, that was the original two

638
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:24,959
Speaker 1: thousand and two. But Mark Zuckerberg, who was a big

639
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 1: fan of the song. Okay, but when he first met

640
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 1: his wife Priscilla, it was playing twenty one years ago.

641
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 1: That's how they fell in love apparently, so every year

642
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 1: he plays it on their anniversary. But he went to

643
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 1: do something different this year, so he teamed up with

644
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 1: te Pain to do a little remake. Take a listenin.

645
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 5: Logan.

646
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: Okay, So he's not rapping, as you can tell, but

647
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 1: he has the vocals. He's a little crooner. It has

648
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 1: the raw lyrics. What I had I had a cut out.

649
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 1: It was very hard to hint it. Yes, it's very raw.

650
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 1: It sounds beautiful, but he's his wife called it very romantic.

651
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 5: That was romantic, very romantic. I didn't know this.

652
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 3: I'm glad you brought this up because after thoughts calling

653
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 3: me t pain.

654
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 4: And it's not.

655
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 11: It's about the dishwasher and the unloading of said dishwasher.

656
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:23,359
Speaker 5: I'm te pain. It's Tallahasse pain. That's where it comes from.

657
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 3: Okay, every seriously, every time you come on, I learned

658
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,359
Speaker 3: something's great.

659
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 5: What was the line for to pick up in a bar?

660
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 1: I don't believe we've met yet.

661
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 5: Lisa Mattea for the newspapers today. You can't do better

662
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 5: than that.

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Speaker 3: Lisa Matteo there, and of course we're from Boston and

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Speaker 3: Lisa Mateo driving the show forward.

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Speaker 5: Here.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

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Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

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Speaker 2: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

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Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg terminal