1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 2: Lurid Calvisina said, you wouldn't come on if I didn't 7 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 2: do bear market bull market calls. I got to do 8 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 2: standard deviation calls, and we're out at three point three 9 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 2: standard deviations down Standard Iporus five hundred, one step down, 10 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 2: two steps down, and this morning, three steps down. We 11 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 2: are honored the Lori Calvisina would join us here in 12 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 2: this hour again commercial free nationwide. Lord, your observation as 13 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 2: you speak to your clients this morning. 14 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 3: Look, I think people are trying to make sense of 15 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 3: what's going on, how far we could go down. You know, 16 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 3: just a few minutes ago, I had an email with 17 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 3: someone who was talking to me about my four tiers 18 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:08,960 Speaker 3: of fear framework, and so there's a lot of sympathy 19 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 3: among my clients for your thirty one hundred, which is 20 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 3: the fourth tier where you have a major crisis and 21 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 3: lose half the market value. I'm not going to sit here, 22 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 3: Tom and tell you everybody saying that, but that was 23 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 3: one email that came across, whereas other people have sort 24 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 3: of resonated to the idea that we said, you know, 25 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 3: we've been in a growth scare. Of the risk now 26 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 3: is we're pricing in recession and it sounds to me 27 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 3: like just based on where we open, we're headed straight 28 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 3: for that. So I think that people are doing what 29 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 3: we do when we have these events in markets where 30 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 3: there is a fear that is cascading very rapidly. 31 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 2: What we're going to do here now with an equity 32 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:46,279 Speaker 2: strategist is take all over wonderful abilities, particularly with less 33 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 2: profitable non Apple, non Microsoft companies, and bring it over 34 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 2: to what people are talking about with the Dow negative 35 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 2: fourteen hundred. Laurie Calvicina. Take the equity market and what 36 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 2: it will bounce off in a credit market that deteriorates. 37 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 2: The jargon that Paul Sweeney uses is spreads deteriorate. That's 38 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 2: the yield of a garbage bond versus a full faith 39 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 2: in credit, and the yield goes higher. Are we to 40 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:21,080 Speaker 2: tipping point in credit that affects the equity market. 41 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 3: It's a great question I'm certainly not an expert on 42 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 3: the credit market, tom, so I'm gonna deflect on that one. 43 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 3: But what I will say is that, you know, maybe 44 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 3: up until about a week ago, and it was a 45 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 3: little bit before the Rose Garden ceremony, to be honest, 46 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 3: but we had actually been seeing small caps starting to 47 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 3: outperform large caps, and like on the big down days 48 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 3: in the market, small caps weren't doing quite as bad. 49 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 3: And I thought that was interesting. That was making me 50 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 3: feel a little bit better because they had already been 51 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 3: so de risk, they were so cheap, and we felt 52 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 3: like there was this rotation going on that was hitting 53 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 3: the bigger caps harder than the small caps. But that's 54 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 3: all changed. So we've seen that attempt that small caps 55 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 3: were making the bottom now fail posts the Rose Garden, 56 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 3: and that's going to be very you know, similar right 57 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 3: to that high high yield cohort of the market. And 58 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 3: what that's been telling me over the past few days 59 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:12,079 Speaker 3: is that those recession risks are getting priced in rapidly 60 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 3: because as cheap as they are, and honestly, tom my 61 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 3: valuation pe for the my valuation model, the market cap 62 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 3: way to pe for the Russell two thousand was it 63 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,920 Speaker 3: thirteen and a half times on the Thursday close In recession, 64 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 3: it tends to go to eleven to thirteen times even 65 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 3: before you clean up the excess earning's optimism. So these 66 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 3: things have been acting pretty pretty bad. But I do 67 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 3: think that credit markets holding off, not deteriorating. You know, 68 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 3: that's been sort of the thing that's kind of kept 69 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 3: people out. And I hate to use the word panic 70 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 3: in markets like these, but that's been kind of the 71 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 3: thing that's kept people calm. But there can be a 72 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 3: necessary part of the bondming process we have to go 73 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 3: through in here. 74 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 2: Let me uncom you right now, Paul the Vick's fifty 75 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 2: two point zero. 76 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 4: Seven exactly, Laurie, what's the earnings risk still out there 77 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 4: in the marketplace do you think, I mean, is it 78 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 4: a flat earnings year in twenty five or maybe something 79 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 4: more than that. 80 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 5: You know, what we've. 81 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 3: Got modeled is is you know, kind of a stagflationary 82 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 3: scenario right now for two fifty eight, which is well 83 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 3: below the bottom up consensus, which last I checked was 84 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 3: two sixty nine. Who knows what it is now because 85 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 3: things are starting to change, but what we have found 86 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:18,159 Speaker 3: it's an interesting question you asked, Paul, because if you 87 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 3: kind of go back and look at bad earnings years, 88 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:23,840 Speaker 3: what we often find is that, you know, in kind 89 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:27,040 Speaker 3: of big crises, big recessions, you're seeing earnings year, earning's 90 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 3: growth on a year for a year basis going down 91 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 3: like thirteen percent or something worse. Right, So, some big, 92 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 3: ugly numbers, but they're actually a lot of years where 93 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 3: earnings are just flat year to year, and when we 94 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 3: see companies, you know, sort of being able to muddle through, 95 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 3: that's often what's happened. So we when we recently changed 96 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 3: our earning's number to two fifty eight, we said, you know, 97 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 3: kind of the downside scenario, if we want to kind 98 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 3: of put in a barricase, we're thinking a lot about 99 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 3: kind of that two forty six number for now. That 100 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:53,920 Speaker 3: could change if we go into a full on recession. 101 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 3: But outside of that, that's not a bad assumption to 102 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 3: make just that earnings go nowhere, Laurie, I, I. 103 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,599 Speaker 4: Think most of us listening watching here would say, you 104 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 4: know what, twelve twenty four to thirty six months from now, 105 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 4: this market's going to be higher than where we are 106 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:11,919 Speaker 4: right here, probably meaningfully higher. So I should probably be 107 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:13,799 Speaker 4: doing some buying here. 108 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 6: How does that conversition do you? 109 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 3: Well, look, look, I'll tell you it's it's sort of 110 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 3: the fly in the ointment for the strategists right now. 111 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 3: And you know, I see this in my own modeling, Paul. 112 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 3: We have five different models that we used to come 113 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 3: up with our price targets. And look, I know everything 114 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 3: is scary if people are like math, Oh my god, 115 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 3: you're doing math, But that's what we have to do, 116 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 3: right to keep ourselves grounded. And when I go through 117 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 3: and look at my modeling, the one model that's still 118 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,280 Speaker 3: pretty constructive is actually the sentiment model, and it's it's 119 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,119 Speaker 3: basically looking at aaii net bulls that are down around 120 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:47,119 Speaker 3: GFC lows twenty twenty two lows, nineteen ninety one recession lows. 121 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 3: And that is a good reminder that as quickly as 122 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:53,600 Speaker 3: things cascade onto the downside, they come they tend to 123 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:57,039 Speaker 3: come roaring back when you get some resolution. And so 124 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,359 Speaker 3: I think that's you know, that's something a lot of 125 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 3: you know, us, for casters, we've had in the back 126 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 3: of our heads as we've tried to navigate this environment. 127 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 7: It's hard, so. 128 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,919 Speaker 3: That's impossible, right to say, what is that trigger? But 129 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 3: it is something we have to watch, and it's a 130 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 3: necessary condition for a bottom that's already been put in. 131 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 8: Place, Tesla not to a two hundred and one ninety nine. 132 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 8: We're not there yet. 133 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 2: I don't want to be too gloomy, but I'm going 134 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 2: to go over here, Lourie to something nobody talks about. 135 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 2: And of course we're on a Canadian border on this 136 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:28,159 Speaker 2: Ford motor under ten dollars nine dollars eleven cents right 137 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:32,280 Speaker 2: down on lows for twenty twenty five. And they got 138 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:37,279 Speaker 2: a pe multiple on Ford of five and maybe the 139 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 2: forward multiple, which we're going to blow up. We know 140 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:44,600 Speaker 2: that is seven. Are we in value territory and medium 141 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 2: and small cap stocks like we clearly are with the 142 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 2: Ford Motor Company. 143 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 3: So you know, I was having an argument with someone 144 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 3: about that this morning. 145 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 8: Time's your housband. 146 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 3: Talking about not my husband. I'm I'm on a trip. 147 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 3: I'm in a hotel room. 148 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 5: So I believe that he ardus with the marriage survives. 149 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, but he's very scared of my tears of fear chart. 150 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 3: I had to take some passwords away from him. But 151 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 3: the reality is is that you know, when I highlight 152 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 3: this small calf chart and that we're at thirteen times, 153 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 3: or at least we were as a Thursday. People say, well, 154 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 3: we have to adjust the earnings, and I say, I know, 155 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 3: we have to adjust the earnings. That's the separate thing though, 156 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 3: if you look at you know, sort of historically my 157 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 3: forward pe data eleven to thirteen times is where small 158 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 3: caps tend to bottom out even when the E is 159 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 3: too high, and people just can't mentally wrap their heads 160 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 3: around that. But it is something important you have to 161 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 3: keep in mind because it's one of those things again 162 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 3: that you have to see. It's not going to peg 163 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 3: a bottom on its own, right, but it's still a 164 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 3: signal even though there's some problems with the E. Now, 165 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 3: I do think with earnings, we have to get the 166 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 3: numbers down before anybody is going to have faith to 167 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 3: come in and buy here. Forty percent of the revisions 168 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 3: and the growth, the Russell and S and P are 169 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 3: still to the upside. Nobody's cutting numbers because they don't, 170 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:58,119 Speaker 3: you know, they I don't know a lot of different reasons, 171 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 3: but nobody's been cutting the numbers pretty come on. 172 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 2: Lori back to her clients at RBC Capital, Marcus Lori 173 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 2: Kelvissenior hugged the children. 174 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 5: As all can say. 175 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 176 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 177 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live 178 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 179 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 180 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 2: I had a major industry heavyweight who sent me his 181 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 2: internal memo for his company, and he said, Tom, can't 182 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:34,079 Speaker 2: mention my name, you can't mention the note. It's you know, 183 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 2: compliance and all all that. But his analog was nineteen 184 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 2: ninety eight. What is Michael Purvis's analog to where we 185 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:43,959 Speaker 2: are right now? 186 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 9: That's when Paul and I were working at Alicotas there. 187 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 9: That was a long time ago there. I'm not sure 188 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 9: what your friend was referencing in exactly. 189 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 8: August, you know, the upset of August. 190 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 9: Okay, okay, yeah, that's part ninety Capital Manage, right. Yeah, Well, 191 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 9: I'm not sure I completely connect those dots in my 192 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 9: mind right now. I mean that was a very sort 193 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 9: of micro thing. 194 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:13,959 Speaker 6: This is, yeah, we're what's what's the problem. 195 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 9: You know, if we go back to the last two 196 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 9: big events uh COVID and the Great Financial Crisis, those 197 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:26,079 Speaker 9: were giant left tail shocks. The federal government was there 198 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 9: in whether it's monetary policy or fiscal policy, there to 199 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:34,839 Speaker 9: to to be the ointment the solve for getting the 200 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 9: wounds repaired and the economy back on track. In this case, 201 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 9: the federal government is actually the catalyst for the for 202 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:41,679 Speaker 9: the volatility. 203 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 6: So it's a very different I think mindset here there. 204 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:50,200 Speaker 9: I so, yeah, No, I think it's it's a very 205 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 9: uncharted orders here. I've been, like, I think, coming in 206 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 9: before last Wednesday, I've been conditioning clients to think about 207 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,559 Speaker 9: forty eight hundred, not on an economic barcase, not on 208 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 9: a recept, not on something ugly, just simply normalization of 209 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 9: valuation and a little bit of earning slippage, which is 210 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 9: sort of normal course of business. And I think where 211 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 9: I'm at Tom right now, and this is not like 212 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 9: an official price target, but I think investors have to 213 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,439 Speaker 9: have their minds open to the fact that four thousand 214 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 9: is not really that as crazy as it sounds, think 215 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 9: about it. You could get even three handle less and 216 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 9: P five like under four thousand, seventeen times flat flat 217 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 9: earnings rows seventeen times seventeen is not some super distressed 218 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 9: price and flat earnings growth is not really that big 219 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,319 Speaker 9: a bearcase, right, if you have some margin slippage and 220 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 9: you have some top line slippage from where analystot. An 221 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 9: overarching point I was trying to make in my note 222 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:52,440 Speaker 9: yesterday Tom was was that, you know, the pivot from 223 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 9: a sentiment, the feeling you have is absolutely shocking, right, 224 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 9: the reversal there, But the absolute levels of weird things 225 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 9: have been is still really high compared to where we 226 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,319 Speaker 9: were in March of twenty twenty or during the Lehman 227 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 9: Brothers saga and so forth. And I think you know, 228 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 9: you look at credit spreads, Yeah, those were backing up 229 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:12,440 Speaker 9: part last week. 230 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:13,200 Speaker 6: Look at a ten. 231 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 9: Year chart of those credit spreads, right. Look at a 232 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 9: lot of cross asset volatility metrics, you know, for example, 233 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 9: the Korean Wan volatilities that Damian's ass hour looks at 234 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,440 Speaker 9: all day long, right, those really weren't moving up at 235 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,680 Speaker 9: all last week. They are starting to now right there. 236 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:32,679 Speaker 9: If you look at one of the other metrics I 237 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 9: think was really interesting is that, of course the Vicks 238 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 9: had soared and it's still soaring there. If you looked 239 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 9: at other European like European equity Vall, Nike equity VLL 240 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 9: that had gone up. But the spreads between US equity 241 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 9: vol and European equity evil or whatever what that record 242 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:48,680 Speaker 9: wise on. 243 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:50,559 Speaker 8: A pe basis. 244 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 2: And I take your point in compression with the earnings 245 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 2: coming down you mentioned Paul Danines given a Tesla change here, 246 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 2: is it enough of an erning's compression? You just directly 247 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 2: link it to a greater economy that's going to be 248 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 2: destroyed by tariffs. Because if the academics tell me, the 249 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 2: people from Columbia, if you go to Columbia, you get 250 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:13,679 Speaker 2: an ear Did you study with Mundel? 251 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 8: Were you in a classic? 252 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 6: I was in an architecture major at Columbia. 253 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 8: Actually took. 254 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 6: No, not a minute. No, I used to Maybe that's 255 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 6: why you're so good. Anyways, I did in business school though. 256 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 6: But yes, the. 257 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 2: Bottom the bottom line is earning has come in because 258 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 2: the economy comes in. And the answer is every academic 259 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 2: note I see, good morning, Maurice sobs felled out at Berkeley. 260 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 2: Is the GDP is going to come in real or nominal? 261 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 8: Do you model that? 262 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 6: Yeah? Look, I think I think you have to it's 263 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 6: very hard to model direction. 264 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:54,160 Speaker 9: But also with earnings, right, if you look at what 265 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 9: is implied, you look at Bloomberg consensus top line for 266 00:12:57,320 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 9: the S and P five hundred and the bottom line 267 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:03,840 Speaker 9: for this year next year implied our margins that we've 268 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:06,679 Speaker 9: never seen before, right, really high margins. 269 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 6: So a little bit of margins. 270 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 9: Let's say, without without without liberation day should be expected, right, 271 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:14,079 Speaker 9: a little bit of you know, obviously tech margins have 272 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 9: been a great story there, but a little bit of 273 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:20,160 Speaker 9: margin give back I think should happen if nominal GDP 274 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 9: contracts and if companies are having a harder time selling 275 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 9: their products and services into perhaps an overstretched consumer. 276 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 6: Now you have to bring in maybe. 277 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 9: A bigger story if these tariffs really start denting margins, 278 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 9: and that's how you can get you don't need a 279 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 9: you don't need a recession to get flat earning's growth 280 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 9: in twenty five and twenty six. 281 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 2: And now folks Surveyllan's audible. Paul, did you ever confront 282 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 2: this like when you were on a when you were 283 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 2: writing reports, the macro shifts and you've got to readjust 284 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 2: your spreadsheets in the two pages you're writing in. 285 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:54,440 Speaker 8: Front of it. 286 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely, particularly with the media cars. 287 00:13:56,920 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 8: Are you're doing it because you're doing it, or your compliance. 288 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 5: Is to do it? 289 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 8: Well? Do it. 290 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 4: My companies were driven by advertising, which is very cyclical, 291 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 4: so it's easy to model that. But I mean, I'm 292 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:08,959 Speaker 4: looking at the S and P five hundred the street. 293 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 4: Michael still got ten percent earners growth this year, twelve 294 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 4: thirteen percent. Extra numbers got to come down. Do you 295 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 4: have a recession in your model? 296 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 10: Is that? 297 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 5: No? 298 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 8: I don't. I don't. 299 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 6: And then and to be clear, I'm look, I'm not 300 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 6: an economist. I don't. 301 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 9: I don't look at it, but I do look at 302 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 9: economic data all day long, and I do look at 303 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 9: where where, more importantly, where there's sort of the consensus 304 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 9: estimates are and so forth, and those numbers. I think 305 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 9: a lot of analysts, whether they're stock analysts or economists, 306 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 9: the ones that are surveyed by Bloomberg and these surveys, 307 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 9: they can you know, you have to recognize it. 308 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 6: Look, it's hard. 309 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 9: They didn't have inputs until Wednesday, and the inputs that 310 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 9: they now have are very confusing and very dynamic. 311 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 8: I would so. 312 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 2: Paul jump in here, but I would suggest Paul that 313 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 2: they haven't had time to publish everything Michael's talking about 314 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 2: so quickly, or it's late this week if you're. 315 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 4: Lucky, Yeah, exactly. So what do you expect to hear 316 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 4: from companies this earning? 317 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 6: Well, boy, I don't know. 318 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 5: I don't know. 319 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 6: That's great, Okay. 320 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 9: So if you were advising the CFO and the CEO 321 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 9: of one of your former clients, right, what would you do? 322 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 9: You'd be probably say, let's guide down, we have a 323 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 9: good you know, like that, and look and and maybe 324 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 9: if all this thing does. I don't want to sound 325 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 9: super barisher, but there is a bowl case that that 326 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 9: that if that, if that, if people if the c 327 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 9: suite guides down and says, look, there's so much uncertainty, 328 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 9: we're just going to be very very conservative here and 329 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 9: we get through this tariff stuff and the good things 330 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 9: happen in the second half and into twenty six. There'll 331 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 9: be a lot of the upside there and from the 332 00:15:43,520 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 9: consumer as well, right, Like if the consumers are getting conservative, 333 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 9: that preserves the balance sheet to spend later. 334 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 8: Right. 335 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 9: So there is there is a there is a bull 336 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 9: scenario there that you have to consider. But I think, yeah, 337 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:55,840 Speaker 9: people are going to die down. Why wouldn't you go 338 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 9: down nearly right here. 339 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 2: Thank you so much. On the Pacific Run in their evening. 340 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 2: This is a lovely lady from Shanghai emailing in mister Purvis. 341 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 2: When do I buy the dip. 342 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 9: Well, I look, I would, I think there's more downside coming. 343 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 9: One thing to think about is, like, you know, look 344 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 9: at long term momentum signals, right, like I look at 345 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 9: the monthly mac D on the S and P five 346 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 9: hundred that is just last week turned a key point, 347 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 9: and it's exactly like what happened in March of twenty 348 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 9: two when we went into a bear market there. I 349 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 9: don't think dip buyers are coming in anytime soon. I 350 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 9: think the clarity that this uncertainty cloud is not going away. 351 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 9: People talk about the Trump put, and my point back 352 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 9: to them is that the Trump put is not a 353 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 9: fed put because the process by which that unfolds, you know, 354 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 9: you know, at what what's the strike price? When do 355 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 9: we get there and all that kind of stuff are 356 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 9: big questions. 357 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 6: Will we ever get there? Right? Is another broader question, the. 358 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 9: Question, but if let's assume a bull case here that 359 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 9: that we get a you know, sometimes later this quarter, 360 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 9: we got a very clear set of policy. 361 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 6: That doesn't it's asymmetric. 362 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 9: That doesn't mean that the certainty comes back as quickly 363 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:12,679 Speaker 9: as it disappeared. Tariffs are a very it's a weapon 364 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 9: that Trump is using that is to to realign the 365 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 9: industrial policy of the United States, but it can create 366 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:25,400 Speaker 9: a lot of damage. Repairing the damage as a slower process. 367 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 8: Purpose is a threat to society. 368 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 2: Get one more question in here, But futures now just 369 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 2: ticking negative one thousand, negative one thousand and forty seven 370 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 2: on the now then NASTAQ negative. 371 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 8: Two point eight percent. This is all Michael Purvis is 372 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:40,120 Speaker 8: doing exactly. 373 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 4: The RSI, the relative strength index for the S and 374 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 4: P five hundred. 375 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 6: We're now at twenty three. 376 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 4: That's below that thirty level, which is historically a technical buy. 377 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:50,119 Speaker 8: Oh yeah no. 378 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:53,880 Speaker 9: And to this person's question, I mean from a very 379 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 9: near term training point of view, yeah, I would expect 380 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 9: it a bounce here this week. Absolutely, twenty three is 381 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 9: pretty extreme there, and then you gotta watch what kind 382 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 9: of selling pressure comes into that bounce and so forth, 383 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,439 Speaker 9: and how it reacts to other newslow as well. But 384 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:13,160 Speaker 9: I think I think valuations and earnings doing buying a 385 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 9: dip on a strategic basis before the earning season is 386 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,240 Speaker 9: a very tricky thing, and earnings are just going to 387 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:18,959 Speaker 9: start coming in. 388 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,359 Speaker 8: Michael, Thank you so much, Michael Purvis Tall Backham. 389 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:30,400 Speaker 1: This morning, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch 390 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 1: us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern 391 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 1: Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 392 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,439 Speaker 1: Business app, or watch US Live on YouTube. 393 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 2: Henrieta treys now Veda partners Mia McGuinness later on the 394 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,439 Speaker 2: debt and the deficit. Henrietta, I want to go to 395 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 2: one of the most interesting politicians, whatever you think of him, 396 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 2: in Washington, mister Cruz of Texas. He's got a mathematics 397 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:59,920 Speaker 2: wiz mom out of Rece University. His father is a stereotype, 398 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 2: came over on a vote from Cuba. Ted Cruz is different. 399 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 2: He's had it with the tariffs. He wants free trade. 400 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,959 Speaker 2: Does he have any company this morning? In the United 401 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,159 Speaker 2: States Senate, there. 402 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 11: Are about six Republican senators who are willing to sign 403 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 11: on to a bill that after sixty days might consider 404 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,680 Speaker 11: thinking about taking back some of President Trump's authority on tariffs. 405 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 7: So a lot of this is a little bit performative. 406 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 11: If y'all excuse me, he had an opportunity to vote 407 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 11: against just the Canada tariffs, our largest trading partner, four. 408 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 7: Days ago, and he did not support that measure. 409 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 12: So explain it explained. 410 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:41,879 Speaker 2: The Republicans, Democrats' independence John Tucker explain, Hanvy it a 411 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 2: trays how they can mouth off how they're against the president, 412 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 2: but at the same time they voted against they voted 413 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 2: against the Toronto maple leafs. 414 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 8: It's unbelievable. How does this happen. 415 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 11: It is a full course change for the Republican Party 416 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,879 Speaker 11: from a decade ago. This is not your grandfather's Republican Party. 417 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 11: These are not free traders. They believe there's no such 418 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 11: thing as free trade anymore. There's only such thing as 419 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,880 Speaker 11: fair trade, which apparently is the reciprocal tariffs that put 420 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 11: you know, nearly one hundred percent tariffs on goods coming 421 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 11: in from China and forty percent plus tariffs on Canada 422 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:18,159 Speaker 11: and Mexico are largest trading partners, twenty five percent tariffs 423 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 11: on EU automobiles. 424 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 7: That is what they consider now free and fair trade. 425 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 7: And they have an opportunity to if they really want 426 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:26,200 Speaker 7: to make. 427 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 11: A slash here get in front of Jamison Greer on 428 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 11: Tuesday when he's in front of the Senate explaining the 429 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,639 Speaker 11: president's trade agenda. So watch that if you want to 430 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 11: see something performative instead of you know, just a couple 431 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:40,239 Speaker 11: of press briefings or tweetings tweets, you got to get 432 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,239 Speaker 11: out there and really do it otherwise they're not going 433 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 11: to move to the president off of this. 434 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,639 Speaker 4: Okay, So Henrietta, just to be clear here, folks in 435 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 4: the market should not expect Congress to step in and 436 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,479 Speaker 4: slow down or alter or push back on these tariffs 437 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:54,880 Speaker 4: going forward. 438 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 5: Is that the message? 439 00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:59,239 Speaker 11: That is definitely my message, And I would get more 440 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 11: specific if you don't believe me. 441 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:01,439 Speaker 7: They have four days. 442 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,240 Speaker 11: They have tonight, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and then they're 443 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:05,399 Speaker 11: gone for the rest of the month. 444 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 7: So a month in the. 445 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,639 Speaker 11: Markets right now is an eternity, and they will be 446 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 11: out of town beginning Thursday night. 447 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,359 Speaker 7: So that's your limit. 448 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 4: Okay, all right, I don't even know why they're out 449 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:19,640 Speaker 4: of town. The rest of us are working, so I'm 450 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:21,439 Speaker 4: not even going to ask that question. But what is 451 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 4: next on the to do list for Congress that the 452 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:25,959 Speaker 4: markets seem to be focused on. 453 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 11: Well, the market is very optimistic, I think way overly 454 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:31,919 Speaker 11: so that we're going to get some sort of stimulus 455 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,399 Speaker 11: to combat the trillions of dollars worth of tariffs that 456 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 11: have taken hold in the market and are roiling the 457 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,439 Speaker 11: global economy. The bill at the House, excuse me, that 458 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 11: the Senate has passed. The budget that they've passed authorizes 459 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 11: five point three trillion dollars in deficit increases, and in 460 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 11: the stimulative components there, I can count about three hundred 461 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:56,000 Speaker 11: billion dollars worth of available funds to do maybe a 462 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,120 Speaker 11: little bit of things like eliminating taxes on tip, which 463 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 11: is one hundred and seventy five billion dollars or half 464 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 11: of the available basket money that they can spend for 465 00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:06,240 Speaker 11: fresh stimulus. So we're going to spend the rest of 466 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,359 Speaker 11: the summer working on a massive tax bill with substantial 467 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 11: deficit increases that don't stimulate the economy. 468 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 2: Folks, I'll just said a touralized I don't know how 469 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 2: you do a quote unquote massive tax bill with a 470 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:18,919 Speaker 2: VIX of forty eight. 471 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 8: Point four to seven, and just that's original. 472 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 2: Henry had a trace to cut to the chase, and 473 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 2: I look at Charlie Cook's a Cook Political Report, the 474 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 2: Cook Partisan Voting Index, four and thirty five congresses in 475 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 2: the one third of the Senate. Has mister Trump lost 476 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 2: the Republicans the House and the Senate? 477 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:40,480 Speaker 7: I would say, certainly the House. 478 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:44,720 Speaker 11: The average change for this president and other swings of 479 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 11: this magnitude is a loss in between forty and sixty 480 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 11: seats in the House. That's, you know, in a state, 481 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 11: in a situation where the Republican conference only has the 482 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 11: margin of a couple four sixties, a sea change. 483 00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 10: You know you're going to. 484 00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 11: Who you want to hear from is not Ted Cruz. 485 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 11: You want to hear from the members who are up 486 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,920 Speaker 11: in the Senate. Lisa Murkowski, excuse me, Susan Collins, Tom 487 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,360 Speaker 11: Tillis and those guys see where they are? 488 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 8: Okay, Well, where's Tom Tillis on this? 489 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, the general lady from Maine is 490 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 2: on a Canadian border. 491 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:19,400 Speaker 8: I get it. Okay, Tillis is from what the Carolina is. Yeah. 492 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 7: And Senator Tillis is amazing on this. 493 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,879 Speaker 11: He's actually getting out there in front of some of 494 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 11: this legislation and signing his name on the dotted line 495 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 11: saying we. 496 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 7: Need to claw back some of this authority. 497 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 11: North Carolina is a purple state and they support the 498 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 11: Inflation Reduction Act. They have a ton of jobs coming 499 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 11: in from all those clean energy manufacturing tax credits. This 500 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 11: is an educated voter base. Senator Tillis has the opportunity 501 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 11: and I think is taking it to be at the forefront. 502 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,399 Speaker 8: Here is Grassley of Iowa on board with Tillis. 503 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:47,640 Speaker 5: Yes. 504 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 11: Senator Grassley is the original sponsor of the legislation, so yes, absolutely. 505 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,720 Speaker 7: Can you be with this enough so to stop this? 506 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 8: Henrietta, can you be with us tomorrow? Can we do 507 00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 8: a remote from Ben's Chili bowl? 508 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:04,679 Speaker 2: I can do that, Henrietta Trey's U Street tomorrow, NW. 509 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 8: Thank you so much for Veda Partners. 510 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 511 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:14,159 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 512 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,160 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 513 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,800 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 514 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,399 Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 515 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:24,919 Speaker 8: What we're really. 516 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 2: Trying to do here, folks, is lose the punditry. There's 517 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 2: really well meaning people out there. Their job description is 518 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,640 Speaker 2: to say, catch the falling knife, here's the bottom. We're 519 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 2: not doing that. We're trying to give you sensible talk. 520 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 2: This weekend I did Maurice Obsfeldt of Berkeley, working with 521 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,520 Speaker 2: Adam Posen at the Peterson Institute, a terrific balanced essay 522 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:49,920 Speaker 2: of core economics. We do that now with Keith Lerner 523 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,919 Speaker 2: can say enough about his work with truest a long 524 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 2: track record of being measured and providing perspective. Keith, what 525 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:02,399 Speaker 2: do you say to people now who simply say, should 526 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 2: I go to cash? 527 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 8: Yeah, we're fir. 528 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 6: It's great to be with you. 529 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 8: It's always good to be on with you all. 530 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:12,679 Speaker 10: So our main simple measures today is it's time to 531 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,320 Speaker 10: start thinking about two A risk, not just the downside risk, 532 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,679 Speaker 10: but also the upside risk. You know, back in February 533 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 10: when we were at all time highs, there's a lot 534 00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 10: of complacency. We actually downgraded equities back then. We've had 535 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 10: this sharp moved lower, Tom and we've had a historical 536 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 10: move lower. So again, time praise matter. Every individual, every 537 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 10: individual circumstance matters. But our main message is if you 538 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 10: have a goal and you have you know the wherewithal 539 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,520 Speaker 10: to go through this we would not be selling into 540 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 10: this weakness, and we can talk about this. We just 541 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 10: published a paper going through some statistics as a guide 542 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 10: about how things tend to act after these brutal two 543 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 10: day de theories that we just. 544 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 8: Want, do you dollar cost average. 545 00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:01,760 Speaker 10: In Yeah, I think that is a pre and approach 546 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:06,200 Speaker 10: because there has been some damage, right, things have been broken. 547 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,760 Speaker 10: We are are not going back to new highs anytime soon, 548 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,359 Speaker 10: at least our work suggests that to be the case. 549 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 10: What also happens after we have these really uh you know, 550 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 10: sharp two day moves in the market. What's notable in 551 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,920 Speaker 10: our work is the sharp two day up moves tend 552 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,160 Speaker 10: to happen within the next two or three weeks as well. 553 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,600 Speaker 10: So you're going to see these swings back and forth. 554 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 10: Each headline is going to be over extrapolated and there's 555 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 10: gonna be a lot of emotions. So to your point, 556 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,920 Speaker 10: I think using a prudent dollar cost average approach into 557 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,640 Speaker 10: the market, Uh, it makes a lot of sense right here. 558 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 4: Uh, Keith whorder fixing come fit into the discussion these days, 559 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 4: I'm looking at the two year treasury three spot six 560 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:47,120 Speaker 4: two percent. 561 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 10: Yeah, so you know we've been our main focus this 562 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 10: year was high quality bonds are back, and they they're 563 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:58,119 Speaker 10: going to start acting like ballast portfolios after they hadn't 564 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,360 Speaker 10: the last few years. That is how happened and what's 565 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,800 Speaker 10: also notable if you're going back to just common sense 566 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 10: basic diversification, you know, a sixty to forty portfolio is 567 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,600 Speaker 10: down less than forty percent because bonds have acted like 568 00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,879 Speaker 10: bonds against as stability and income. That said, on a 569 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 10: short term basis, we saw bonds move from four to 570 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:20,280 Speaker 10: eighty down below three seventy five. Now we're back above four. 571 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,199 Speaker 10: I think, you know, a short term we've probably an 572 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 10: ongoing a lot lower here in the nearer term, but 573 00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 10: again from a portfolio diversification standpoint, plane of fixed income 574 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 10: still is attractive. And incrementally we've been really negative on credit, 575 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,600 Speaker 10: and incrementally we're going to become a bit more positive 576 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:39,280 Speaker 10: as those yields or those credit spreads start to blow out. 577 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,879 Speaker 2: I haven't asked this question all morning. I think we 578 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:45,680 Speaker 2: should inflict Keith schuber By that Keith Lenner is Mag 579 00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,679 Speaker 2: seven the same old Meg seven or is it a 580 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:50,359 Speaker 2: new Meg seven? 581 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 10: Yeah, you know, it's funny because it was fag A 582 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 10: couple of years ago, then it's the MAG seven. So 583 00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 10: maybe the MAG seven components change as well. But you know, 584 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 10: one thing I found interesting is I'm going through, you know, 585 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,080 Speaker 10: hundreds and hundreds of charts over the weekend with my 586 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:08,400 Speaker 10: team the technology sector as a whole. The valuation levels 587 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,679 Speaker 10: are now back to where they were in October of 588 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 10: twenty twenty three, and the MAGS seven, you know, stocks 589 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 10: have moved from well above thirty to somewhere in the 590 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:18,639 Speaker 10: early twenties. 591 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:18,880 Speaker 5: Now. 592 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:20,679 Speaker 10: The big question we all know is the E. We 593 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 10: don't know what the E is, but I do suspect that, 594 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,400 Speaker 10: you know, in times of Highland certainty where they're still 595 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 10: going to be a huge demand for AI and productivity. 596 00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:31,360 Speaker 10: But you'll see somebody vote key back into these names 597 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,880 Speaker 10: after this just kind of wild here the last few months. 598 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:35,440 Speaker 8: The Keith Lerner, thank you so much. 599 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 600 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 601 00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 602 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal. 603 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 2: Joining us down Surveillance Right Sizing correspondent hin Aali bassic. 604 00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 2: There's like eight ways to go here. We got James 605 00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 2: Dimer's letter forget about it. What's circlating out there is 606 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,440 Speaker 2: margin calls, and I would add to that the stresses 607 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 2: of private equity or private credit. 608 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 13: What can you report, Well, let's do two things on 609 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 13: the margin call side. Of course, these were the worst 610 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 13: margin calls since you saw since the COVID pandemic. However, 611 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 13: wire time's a little different. 612 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 12: Now. 613 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,560 Speaker 13: You already had so much pain coming into this year 614 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,760 Speaker 13: that you had a lot of people hedging, You had 615 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,280 Speaker 13: a lot of rotation already cleared out a little bit 616 00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 13: of it. I mean not to say there won't be more, 617 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 13: but you know, when I talked to the banks, even 618 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,440 Speaker 13: at the highest levels, yes, there's a little bit of 619 00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:40,680 Speaker 13: panic in the sense that they are really screaming hoping 620 00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 13: for the president to roll back, right. I mean, you know, 621 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 13: hope is not a strategy as we know, but you know, 622 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 13: hedge funds at this point. I would also say, remember 623 00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:53,920 Speaker 13: there is an element of excitement to tom. Last night 624 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,480 Speaker 13: I had tons of fun saying, you know, the cash 625 00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:58,719 Speaker 13: has been working as a good edge, which means they 626 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,080 Speaker 13: also have cash to deploy when things get really bad. 627 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 12: So I think there is equally an. 628 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,520 Speaker 13: Element of waiting for that really bad to start to 629 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:06,960 Speaker 13: step in. 630 00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:08,600 Speaker 8: Will you let us know when that happens. 631 00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,920 Speaker 13: Yeah, I will be crying to come on on surveillance 632 00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 13: radio of course. 633 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 5: Well, actually, just on social media. 634 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 4: A lot of the big names on Wall Street. Bill Ackman, 635 00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:18,480 Speaker 4: for example, has been very active and capitulated. 636 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:19,080 Speaker 5: Capitulated. 637 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:21,120 Speaker 4: I mean, he's been such a supporter of the President 638 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,719 Speaker 4: and the president's economic policies. But I think even he 639 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,560 Speaker 4: has said, all right, we need to we need some clarity. 640 00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,520 Speaker 13: Yeah, you know, to Tom's point on the private markets too, Equally, 641 00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,240 Speaker 13: people who have been deep into public markets are actually 642 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 13: more worried about private markets because you can't see how 643 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:37,360 Speaker 13: much pain is under the surface. 644 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:40,280 Speaker 12: There have been a little bit. 645 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:44,000 Speaker 13: Why can you, because on one hand you have a 646 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:48,720 Speaker 13: sense of sky high more than a decade worth of 647 00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 13: bankruptcies last year. If you can think about how much 648 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 13: pain you saw coming into this year, then multiply that by. 649 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 8: A lot of Paul's been on top of this private credit? 650 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,800 Speaker 8: What is to worry about private credit? Describe? Is it 651 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,040 Speaker 8: they're locked in? What's the anks? 652 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:08,040 Speaker 12: Have you heard of this term? Amended extent yes. 653 00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:13,520 Speaker 5: Of course, lending side, yes, Rich, OK, thank. 654 00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 13: You, extent amend and pretend if you want to call 655 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 13: it that people have put on so much debt on 656 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,920 Speaker 13: their balance sheet to get through the last couple of years. 657 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,480 Speaker 13: Because the IPO market has been closed, the M and 658 00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,719 Speaker 13: A market hasn't been opened to a lot of these 659 00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:30,080 Speaker 13: highly levered companies. The moment was supposed to be now, Tom, 660 00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 13: they were supposed to sell. 661 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 12: Now they can't sell. They can't sell, They're locked in correct. 662 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:36,960 Speaker 8: What's it mean? 663 00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:39,360 Speaker 5: I'm going to ask Shanali? 664 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:41,480 Speaker 4: What are the big I see the big Wall Street 665 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,440 Speaker 4: firms cutting their price targets. 666 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 5: I mean the Wall streets jumping. And that's just. 667 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:46,920 Speaker 12: In public markets. 668 00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 13: So if you look at private markets, you're looking at 669 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:50,720 Speaker 13: values that are declining steeply. 670 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,200 Speaker 12: You're looking at leverage. That is a turn. 671 00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:55,000 Speaker 8: There's leverage there. 672 00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 12: There is leverage there, and as you know, leverage is 673 00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:57,760 Speaker 12: the enemy. 674 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,040 Speaker 2: I got one minute left here, just as simple as 675 00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,880 Speaker 2: I can. Mister Diamond's out of the letter in his defense, 676 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,600 Speaker 2: was written before all this idiocy. Are we going to 677 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 2: write size? I mean, I'm making jokes about and folks, 678 00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,240 Speaker 2: I hate the phrase layoffs and finance. Are we going 679 00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 2: to see firings to write size to a new reality. 680 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,560 Speaker 13: It's certainly becoming a discussion because all the deals that 681 00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,440 Speaker 13: were expected to happen, it's already April. You can count 682 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,560 Speaker 13: out the month already. How much is actually going to 683 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,800 Speaker 13: happen this year? You're not going to see the activity 684 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 13: come back in full form and honestly, bank earning start Friday. 685 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,520 Speaker 12: So here weather, thank thank you. 686 00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,239 Speaker 2: I didn't, I didn't. I lost my mind on that. 687 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:39,479 Speaker 2: How are the international banks doing in Manhattan? The Deutsche 688 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:40,480 Speaker 2: banks that BnB. 689 00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:42,560 Speaker 13: Rast you know, HSPC is one of the most interesting 690 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:44,880 Speaker 13: to watch. They are on the tail end of a massive, 691 00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:48,800 Speaker 13: you know, maybe historic for the bank restructuring. They got 692 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,680 Speaker 13: rid of a lot of businesses and now they're focusing 693 00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 13: on things like trade financing, which is for this market 694 00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:56,720 Speaker 13: a pretty interesting place to be. 695 00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,440 Speaker 8: Okay, what do you want? I got ten? What are 696 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:01,160 Speaker 8: you watching to day? What's the number one thing? 697 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:01,719 Speaker 5: Credits? 698 00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,400 Speaker 8: Brek credit, well like high yield full faith. 699 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:07,800 Speaker 13: And high yield investment, great credit default swaps. Remember, credit 700 00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 13: is that canary in the coal mine, and the smart 701 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,840 Speaker 13: money watches a credit go first, it's a canary dead. 702 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 5: Yeah, gasp for. 703 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 2: I love Busted and shots should Island Bassak, and I 704 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 2: really want to do a master shout out to her 705 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:25,080 Speaker 2: leadership on Bloomberg Investor Shere was a high postage. 706 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:30,160 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 707 00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:34,560 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 708 00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:37,960 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot com, 709 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,880 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 710 00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 711 00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,640 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal