1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,800 Speaker 1: Hi, this is Dana Perkins and you're listening to Switch 2 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 1: on the B n A of podcast. Today we talk 3 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 1: about battery metals, which are experiencing record high prices due 4 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:13,399 Speaker 1: to supply chain pressures, inflation, and demand growth. And it's 5 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 1: no wonder since the sales of electric vehicles and stationary 6 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,919 Speaker 1: storage have grown, which in turn require batteries and then 7 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,159 Speaker 1: in turn require the metals that they're made of. But 8 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 1: with most things, it's not quite that simple, and that's 9 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: why we decided to bring our lead metals and mining 10 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: analysts onto the show today. So let's take a quick 11 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 1: step back and if we look at benfs annual Long 12 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: Term Electric Vehicle Outlook, they look at the future of 13 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:42,160 Speaker 1: what demand for electric vehicles could look like. The transition 14 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: is underway and road transport oil demand could peak as 15 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:50,879 Speaker 1: soon as the electric vehicle market opportunity between two and 16 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: well it could be fifty three trillion dollars according to 17 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: BENFS Economic transition scenario. So in short, this demand sees 18 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 1: no lindes of abating in the future. But in order 19 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: for any of this to happen again, we're going to 20 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 1: need more batteries and therefore more battery metals, So what's 21 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 1: important for a metals analysts to consider when thinking about 22 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:15,040 Speaker 1: the future of supply and demand in this space. In 23 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: order to discuss this complexity with us and many of 24 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:21,479 Speaker 1: the factors just swimming around in his head, Quoisium Popo 25 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 1: joins us today and he is the lead analyst on 26 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: metals and mining for BENOF. To research more about these 27 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 1: topics and to access the underlying data be enough subscribers 28 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 1: can go to the Bloomberg terminal or b enof dot 29 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 1: com or BNF smobil app and I recommend reading the 30 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: piece titled one Battery Metals Outlook Supply Turbulence Ahead. As 31 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:45,720 Speaker 1: a reminder, B and e F does not provide investment 32 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 1: or strategy advice, and you can hear our full disclaimer 33 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 1: at the very end of the show. And also if 34 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: you want to hear more of our shows on the 35 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: future of energy, transport and sustainability and be alerted to 36 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: when they come out, make sure to click subscribe on 37 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: whatever podcast player you're listening to us on today. And 38 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:10,919 Speaker 1: now let's speak with Quzily about battery Metals Crazy. Thank 39 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:13,799 Speaker 1: you very much for coming back to the show. Thank 40 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 1: you you know so the last time we were here, 41 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: you and I discussed cobalt specifically, but today we're actually 42 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,239 Speaker 1: going to take it back and we're going to talk 43 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: about kind of all battery metals because you recently did 44 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:29,359 Speaker 1: a market outlook for this group of metals. So as 45 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 1: we get started, can you outline what are the battery metals? Yeah, 46 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 1: so it really depends on who you ask, right, which 47 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: batching technology that you're looking at For us specifically Bloom 48 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 1: again the f When we talk about boutchy metals, we're 49 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 1: trying to concentrain it within the contest of my technology 50 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 1: called lethio, my own batteries. So little iron batteries have 51 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 1: become the dominant battery technology in the space. That means 52 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: a lot to us, which is i e. The electric 53 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,079 Speaker 1: vehicle industry and also the stationary storage. So what is 54 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: a little iron batteries? So it's a battery wa I said, 55 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: name sounds there's a lithium in there. So if you 56 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: forget any battery metal, Danta, don't forget that lithium. Yeah, 57 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 1: it's in the name exactly what is in the name? Yes, 58 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,359 Speaker 1: so that is number one, number two. It also depends 59 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 1: on which battery chemistry beyond just having a lithium in there. 60 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: It depends on which battery chemistry. Are quite a number 61 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 1: of them, but what we've come to realize is that 62 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 1: there are a few metals that are consistent with the 63 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 1: dominant chemistry that is in our electric vehicles today as 64 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,679 Speaker 1: well as in our stationary storage. So I would name 65 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: just those ones that we believe are quite dominant and 66 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 1: also from a supply chain perspective, have a lot of 67 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 1: importance because they would make the ev adoption dream happen ultimately. 68 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: So number one I've mentioned lithium. I also want to 69 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 1: add another one called nickel. So nickel you will find 70 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: it in the min Southeast Asia, in Indonesia, you can 71 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: also find it in countries like Australia. And then third 72 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: to that, you have cobotes. And you reminded our listeners 73 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 1: of our inter action the last couple of months ago 74 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 1: where I just returned from the d r C as 75 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: part of my work to identify what is actually happening 76 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 1: in the cobalt industry. So that is the third one. 77 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 1: The fourth one we have manganese. So manganese is predominantly 78 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,720 Speaker 1: extracted in South Africa, so they are the market leaders 79 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 1: in the extraction of manganese, so that is also used 80 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 1: as a battery metal. And I think in terms of cathode. 81 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 1: Cathode is that if you ever had a look at 82 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: a battery, there is a plast and a minor sign. 83 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 1: So the plas sign represents what we call the cathode. 84 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: So these four metals are the ones that are bloomed. Again, yes, 85 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,720 Speaker 1: we cover and classify them as the cathode. There is 86 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 1: also a minor sign in another for there to be 87 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 1: that extrage of energy. I own was moving from one 88 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 1: point to data. So the minor sign on your battery 89 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:52,600 Speaker 1: is what it encompasses of a metal called graphic to 90 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 1: a material called graphic. So all in all data I've 91 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: mentioned five materials or metals. We've got lithium, we've got 92 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 1: a nickel, we've got cobalts, we've got manganese, and then 93 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 1: graph FLI. So for the battery metals that we're covering, 94 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: or actually for battery metals generally, which are the raw 95 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: materials that go into making these vehicle batteries that they 96 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:14,600 Speaker 1: were talking about as we're looking at electrifying transport, and 97 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 1: that was covered actually in a previous episode where we 98 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 1: talked a bit about the electric vehicle outlook that we 99 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: put out every year. Do we have a sense for 100 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 1: how much the cost of the raw materials the metals 101 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 1: actually are in terms of the overall cost of the battery. Absolutely, 102 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 1: So this is also a very interesting area. So depending 103 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 1: on which chemistry use, you realize that a huge component 104 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 1: of your battery it's coming out of the metals. But 105 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,040 Speaker 1: I think the key take home is the fact that 106 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 1: most expensive component if you slide o peanut buttery, is 107 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 1: a metals in there. And by this I'm not saying 108 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: that please go slide open and electricy vehicle battery. Just 109 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: take the motel cells. It's not safe. Don't do that. 110 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 1: Although when you're done with it, circular economy recycling, that's 111 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,159 Speaker 1: a whole another show. We can have those battery metals 112 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: like professionally extracted and reused. But anyway, I digress. We'll 113 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 1: do that another day. So you're saying once you're in 114 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 1: the battery, so once you in battery. So there are 115 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 1: some chemistries where the battery, the total battery costs from 116 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: materials will be able six of the total costs, so 117 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: much cereals the total cost of the battery. And there 118 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 1: are some chemistry day now that it could go as 119 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 1: high as it really depends on the battery chemistry, but 120 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 1: those are the ranges that acquis and our modeling is 121 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: telling us that it could get through. Do you think 122 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: that when individuals who are doing development on the battery 123 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: chemistryes I know they're looking at batteries that will last longer, 124 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: have longer range in theory for these vehicles when they're 125 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: making them, do you think that they're also trying to 126 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 1: remove dependence on specific metals and reduce the need for 127 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: specific metals for various reasons, whether it be human rights 128 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 1: issues around the extraction of that particular metal or around 129 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: the costs, which is what we're really and delve into 130 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,600 Speaker 1: today because the supply and demand side of things, as 131 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: we're looking at inflationary environment and supply chain disruption certainly 132 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: is hitting this industry as it is so many. Do 133 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 1: you think that that is a place where people are 134 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: specifically trying to change the chemistry is to adjust to 135 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:19,239 Speaker 1: or is it really much more around battery performance battery life. 136 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 1: So we actually looked at this question and analysis and 137 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 1: we singled out cobalt. Right. We mentioned that a couple 138 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 1: of months ago I came here, we talked about my 139 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 1: experience in the DRC and the fact that there's still 140 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: consense around ethical supply chain. At that time as well, 141 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: the cobalt prices were at record high. To just stand 142 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 1: that one of the major mining companies which extract cobalt 143 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 1: had to shut down the MIND because the prices were 144 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:47,679 Speaker 1: not favorable for them. So what happened between that time, 145 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 1: which is somewhere around twenty nine and now, is the 146 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 1: fact that automakers reacted to first of all, the high 147 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: price and then the ethical challenges associated with the supply 148 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: chain what they do. So remember how I just talked 149 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: about the fact that they are different battery chemistries. In 150 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: other ways, there are different metals which form the catholic 151 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 1: materials or the battery itself. So automakers realize that if 152 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: they can divect to other chemistries like the lethio myron 153 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 1: phosphate battery technology which uses lethion, iron and phosphate that's 154 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: its name sounds, and they DIVECT from the high nickel 155 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: chemistry which uses nickel, cobalt and manganese. If they could 156 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: do this diversion, it would have saved themselves quite a 157 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: lot of money simply because iron in phosphate are low 158 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 1: cost metals. But then most importantly, they would have weaned 159 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 1: themselves of cobalt because there's battery technology that's not require 160 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:48,960 Speaker 1: you to use cobalt. So that is absolutely happening. And 161 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 1: when we run the numbers, what we've realized is that 162 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: in twenty what bloom begin he thought would be the 163 00:08:55,360 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: total demand for cobalt from batteries by have been reduced 164 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 1: by half, simple because which is quite big cause I 165 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 1: think for me it ended up being my favorite chart 166 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:11,080 Speaker 1: and also my most revealing experience during the production of 167 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 1: this report. So you do realize that initially I was thinking, oh, 168 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,079 Speaker 1: maybe did we get it wround at the beginning, And 169 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 1: actually it's industry that was switching. So let me do 170 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 1: a little bit of name calling companies that are actually 171 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:25,479 Speaker 1: switched into this. I own little my own phosphate technology. 172 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:28,079 Speaker 1: Of course, the obvious one, Tesla, which was a big 173 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 1: surprise to me because if four years ago you had 174 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:34,559 Speaker 1: told me that Tesla is going to use a battery 175 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 1: technology that is currently dominant in China, that Chinese company 176 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,559 Speaker 1: c t L is the biggest manufacturer of LFP, If 177 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: you have told me that Tesla and American company will 178 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: switch to a China dominant battery chemistry four years ago. 179 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 1: I probably have laughed. Right, that was the reality when 180 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 1: elon mask Dancer stage and opened the Shan High factory. 181 00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: Months later, they announced that their entry model or this 182 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 1: standard model, Model three, is going to use the LSP 183 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: battery technology in China and there are discussions of even 184 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 1: extending it to Europe. Just this morning, I woke up 185 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:12,839 Speaker 1: and then I had the fod 's also announced that 186 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 1: its entry level electric vehicle is also going to use 187 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 1: the LFP. Mes Cities has done that already, BM doub 188 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:22,559 Speaker 1: has done that. So you're absolutely correct when you mentioned 189 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: that the demand side or electric vehica manufacturers are very 190 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: open to change and they will switch or react to 191 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 1: conditions within the supply G and B it's prices or 192 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 1: ethical concerns. Now for a very short break, stay with us. So, 193 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 1: which are the battery metals that you would say are 194 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: the ones to watch right now and which ones are 195 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,959 Speaker 1: having kind of the greatest constraints on pricing. It feels 196 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 1: like looking at your children and then trying to decide 197 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 1: which which of the metals. Yeah, I had a chat 198 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: with our transport team led by Collins, my colleague Collins, 199 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,839 Speaker 1: about which of these is important, which of these should 200 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 1: we highlight as the most at risk? And it turns 201 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 1: out all of them, Dana, when we did the numbers specifically, 202 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: so to be able to put that in contest, let's 203 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 1: just shorten the time frame. So when we looked at 204 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 1: this year, which of them from a supply needs in 205 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: demand perspective is the one at most risk? All of them? 206 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:25,439 Speaker 1: And it comes down to a couple of factors that 207 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: we've been experienced. And I know you talked about inflation earlier, 208 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: but beyond just inflation, which are probably addressed down the line, 209 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 1: Beyond just inflation, you would realize that over the last 210 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: three years the world has gone through and not so 211 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: good experience. Particularly we covered right, We've lost some life 212 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: sadly that people who have not been able to recover 213 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,439 Speaker 1: and they're experiencing long symptoms. It's not really been a 214 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 1: very good experience. Beyond just this experience as well, the 215 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 1: supply chain has taken a hit, and part of that 216 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 1: hits is the fact that companies that were supposed to 217 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 1: bring on production to me growing demand had to readjust 218 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 1: their capital location right if you're printing and on certain 219 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:07,959 Speaker 1: market where you don't know what tomorrow is gonna look like, 220 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:10,320 Speaker 1: you want to retain as much cash as you can 221 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: on your balance sheet. So what that means is that 222 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 1: if you're supposed to invest in expanding in Indonesia, or 223 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:19,320 Speaker 1: building a new plant in South Africa, or even diversifying 224 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: into a new market in the United States of America, 225 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 1: you think about that twice simply because there's so much uncertainty. 226 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:28,679 Speaker 1: And that is what happening at the supply side. That's 227 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 1: what happened there where companies failed to invest in their 228 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 1: expansion programs but demanded and stop. China did not stop 229 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: buying electric vehicles. Europe did not stop buying electric vehicles. 230 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 1: They kept growing. So we are in this year where 231 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: hold on, we've realized that actually there's some enough supply. 232 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:50,679 Speaker 1: Litm is faced on that challenge and prices have risen 233 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 1: between seven six hundred to seven percent over the last 234 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 1: eighteen months. In day now, if you're in a business 235 00:12:56,840 --> 00:13:00,040 Speaker 1: where the price of your input commodity has risen to 236 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 1: that level in eighteen months, you matter as well. That's 237 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 1: packed right, because everything changes and these are costs you 238 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 1: cannot easily pass on too. You can assumer if you 239 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 1: look at cobalts as well, there are things happening in 240 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 1: the d r C that is beginning to threaten some 241 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: percentage of supply which will make supply inadequate to meet demand. 242 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 1: If you look at manganese so fit as well, lack 243 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: of investment in China and elsewhere in the world is 244 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:26,959 Speaker 1: leading to a scenario where the world would have to 245 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 1: think twice whether there is enough to meet demand. Also, 246 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 1: if you extended to graph it it's a little bit balanced. 247 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 1: So I would say that I wouldn't be worried about 248 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,679 Speaker 1: graphite this year so much. But then just in one 249 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 1: is nickel, and we are actually quite both in the 250 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 1: nickel space and called a deficit that we might actually 251 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 1: be heading into a deficit of thtor tons. That's not much, right, 252 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: but these are the things that drive prices and also 253 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 1: slow down their adoption to electric vehicles, because if auto 254 00:13:56,559 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 1: companies cannot lay hands on these metals that are who 255 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 1: shell to the productional electories, they get till manufacturing they 256 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 1: are not able to produce, and then it's just extense 257 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 1: the delivery of electric vehicles and it begins to eat 258 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 1: into our ability or electric vehicle ability to penetrate markets. Yeah, 259 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 1: because this isn't just a discussion around prices and whether 260 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 1: or not prices are high and those will get passed 261 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 1: on to the consumer. It's about delivery of these things altogether. 262 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 1: Will we be able to make enough to electrify in 263 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 1: the timelines that have been so clearly outlined for us 264 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 1: in terms of the carbon budget for example, this being 265 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 1: you know, one of the key ways of decarbonizing transport. 266 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: So let's talk a little bit actually just about where 267 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 1: this might break down and whether or not we are 268 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: already seeing or we think we may see in the 269 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 1: next couple of years, real slow down in terms of 270 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 1: you know, production and delivery of vehicles. Are there specific 271 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 1: choke points that that you're watching super closely at the 272 00:14:57,440 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: moment where your things are just not getting to where 273 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 1: they need to be physically, given that this is a 274 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 1: truly global supply chain, So we tried to use a 275 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: qualitative way of you know, testing the pose of how 276 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: this is translated into their consumer and then obviously being 277 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: being there if we're also very data heavy, so we 278 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: tried to use a quant way of defining this. So 279 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 1: then if you have a friend that has ordered a 280 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: Tesla folks World an electric version or a BM doub 281 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 1: electric vehicle, just ask them how the weight in time 282 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: game has been going the last few weeks or the 283 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 1: last few months, and I think not many people are 284 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: having good experiences because the weight in time keeps getting 285 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 1: longer and longer. And as test that reported in this 286 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 1: recent update company update, what material shortages or the supply 287 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 1: chain shortage is actually becoming a material concern for them 288 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 1: because it's beginning to impact the ability to produce. So 289 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 1: that is a qualitative way where we realize that these 290 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 1: supply chain issues are beginning to translate an impact in 291 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 1: the end consumer. The second way we look at it 292 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: is we do think that the tipping point for electric 293 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 1: vehicle adoption is actually going to count from costs. Then 294 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 1: if you worked in the showroom and you could get 295 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 1: the price of an internal combustion let me name call again, Corolla, 296 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 1: the same price as you get an electric vehicle Tesla 297 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 1: Mod three. Well, the option which would you choose? Probably 298 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 1: the Corolla it's less expensive, right, But then if they 299 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 1: were the same price as a Tesla, it's the same 300 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: price maybe the Tesla. Yeah, the Tesla they see, and 301 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: that is where we believe that it will be the 302 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 1: tennant point for mass adoption of electric vehicle when you 303 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 1: walk into the showroom and you don't have concent about 304 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: I need to pay extra money to be able to 305 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 1: afford an electric vehicle. But then it's just a matter 306 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: of which one appeals to be more So, I think 307 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 1: the tipping point will be that price, what we call 308 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: price priority, and our storage team has crunched the numbers 309 00:16:56,400 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: that what battery price would we attain price parity, and 310 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 1: we came down to hundred dollar, taking on what our 311 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 1: right that is the holy grown number that we do 312 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 1: believe that all we that the industry is working towards. 313 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 1: At what point that's the average price of batteries reach undred? 314 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 1: Unfortunately for us at Blue Bag year for our storage 315 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:22,400 Speaker 1: team has built authority in this area where every year 316 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 1: we push out this report and initially, prior to the 317 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 1: supply chain concerns, our working census, based on our modeling, 318 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:33,159 Speaker 1: our forward looking model was stating that we could attained 319 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 1: that price parity between twenty twenty three. Guess what that's 320 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 1: feeling pretty far away? Yeah, exactly, once we started baking 321 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 1: in a scenario of these higher commodity prices as a 322 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 1: result of these shortages, what we're seeing is that the 323 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,879 Speaker 1: earliest we could not reach it. If these challenges, supply 324 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,200 Speaker 1: chain challenges extending to next year is beginning to look 325 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: like and if it goes even further out, these four 326 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 1: fatility goes further out, we could be looking at probably 327 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: later in the decade. Right. So that is also the 328 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:10,119 Speaker 1: second way where we try to quantitatively assess what the 329 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 1: impact of these higher prices would be on the electric 330 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 1: vehicle consumer. So when I talked about the fact that 331 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 1: I find out from your friends Collis family who have 332 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 1: ordered an electric vehicle and asked them how the weiting 333 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 1: game is going at the moment, and I'm pretty sure 334 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 1: they will tell you that it keeps getting longer and longer. 335 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 1: And two, at what points are we going to be 336 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: able to attain a hundred dollar you know, a particular 337 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 1: at our battery cost on average, and you realize that 338 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 1: that access tended further than what we initially thought. And 339 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 1: that is the point where we believe that evs will 340 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 1: reach price priority with internal composting engine. And if that 341 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: goes further out, then the mass abdorction of ev could 342 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 1: potentially end up being delayed. So you mentioned as a year, 343 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:56,600 Speaker 1: and I just want to be really clear on that. 344 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,159 Speaker 1: And I know it's impossible to predict the future. We 345 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 1: are trying to say, when do we all things remaining 346 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 1: constant today, when do we think things may normalize? And 347 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 1: I know in the natural gas space, for example, and 348 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,400 Speaker 1: we've covered that on this show. You originally it was, oh, 349 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,359 Speaker 1: it's going to be another two years, and then now 350 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 1: that timeline is looking like it's it's it's kind of 351 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:23,400 Speaker 1: going further away. When all things constant you expecting start 352 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,920 Speaker 1: to normalize in the battery supply chain space or could 353 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 1: it be significantly further out than that? So let me 354 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:31,920 Speaker 1: let me think I'll listener through it. Behind the scenes 355 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,959 Speaker 1: of very polt I published in January. Right in January, 356 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg any of published It's fast Battery Metals Price Outlook, 357 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 1: where we trying to look at where prices would be 358 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 1: in twenty thirty and actually went on stage to confidently 359 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: present these results at our San Francisco summit, so focused 360 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:52,639 Speaker 1: on batteries, right, like, that's one of the topics that 361 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 1: comes up a lot of the San Francisco summit exactually 362 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,920 Speaker 1: and I confidently said at that time that base on 363 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:00,640 Speaker 1: where we have seen supply chains, and I'm we don't 364 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: think that list. Your price at that time was forty 365 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 1: dollars on average parametric m. We don't think that we 366 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: will see it go higher. We potentially might have hit 367 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,920 Speaker 1: the roof at that time. Three months later, prices doubled, 368 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 1: and then I have to do the hard and difficult 369 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,919 Speaker 1: job of presenting the reports to a clients every now 370 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,159 Speaker 1: and then. So what I did then there is that 371 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: rather than use that report I saw a forecast of 372 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 1: the future, I used it to teach our clients how 373 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 1: not to forecasts. So I think that is how I'm 374 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,359 Speaker 1: going to answer your question, right, okay, so how not 375 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 1: to poecast? So so what did you learn from that experience? 376 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,400 Speaker 1: Because again, you know, we can only make decisions, not decisions. 377 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 1: We can only think about for looking scenarios based on 378 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 1: the information we have today. But what were the moving 379 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 1: parts that you now feel are potentially too volatile to 380 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:55,159 Speaker 1: be able to really confidently look too far out? The 381 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,400 Speaker 1: short term should not be deterched from the long term. 382 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:02,120 Speaker 1: They are they are. There are two parts really joined 383 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 1: ot the hip right, and at that time we're pretty 384 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 1: confident that nothing in the short term would matter dramatically 385 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: to impart our long term average. Few a month later, 386 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 1: the Russia War happened, and then it just change you 387 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 1: organized supply chain against I think the key s and 388 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 1: we learned is that you should one way or the other, 389 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,119 Speaker 1: find a way to connect the short term which our 390 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,159 Speaker 1: long term view, not just number one. Number two. We 391 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 1: need to also understand that if the historical challenges, or 392 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:33,200 Speaker 1: if the historical factors that drove the market to where 393 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:36,840 Speaker 1: it is now have not been resolved, it's very important 394 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: not to assume that the future is going to be different. 395 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 1: And I think if we have thought about that a 396 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 1: little bit more and realized that the overhang. Yes, I 397 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,200 Speaker 1: live in London and if you if you sat in 398 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 1: the tube in London today, you probably assume that COVID 399 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,879 Speaker 1: doesn't exist anymore, right, But then if you go to 400 00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 1: countries like China where they are still aggressively enforcing policies 401 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,159 Speaker 1: to contain COVID, you would come to a realization that 402 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 1: some key markets that actually drive the commodity market are 403 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:13,920 Speaker 1: still under the not so comfortable more difficulty impact of 404 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,639 Speaker 1: COVED and that is a factor in the manufacturing. So 405 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 1: if we have thought about the fact that if these 406 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,159 Speaker 1: challenges that were experienced last year, last two years have 407 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 1: not been eliminated globally still persists, then the challenge that 408 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 1: drove us to higher prices will still remain. So that 409 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,680 Speaker 1: is less than number two, right, And I think less 410 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,680 Speaker 1: than number three is the fact that the market is 411 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,399 Speaker 1: not as rational as we probably as human is right. 412 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 1: Where prices would only move based on supply demands, sometimes 413 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 1: government policies in key countries also impact prices. Sometimes short 414 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,440 Speaker 1: term reactions like what has happened would end up being 415 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 1: long term also impact prices. So I think these are 416 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 1: the three things. And to answer your question as to 417 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 1: where we see prices, so let's take number one. The 418 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 1: short term factors that are beginning to look long term. 419 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 1: Have they been resolved And the answer is no. If 420 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 1: you look at Russia and other issues that we thought 421 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: would just be a short term issue, they're beginning to 422 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 1: look long term and they will continually impact supply chain. 423 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 1: So what that What does that mean for prices? It 424 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: means that whatever prices are today is very unlikely that 425 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 1: they will move below what it is today because those 426 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,919 Speaker 1: challenges have not resolved to COVID issue of COVID, it's 427 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 1: not been resolved yet in China right, China is still 428 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 1: aiming for a zero COVID policy that is affective manufacturing. 429 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,399 Speaker 1: So would we see a tsunami of supplied come on 430 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 1: line this year? No, So if we're not gonna see 431 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 1: scenami of supplied but demand keeps growing, does that mean 432 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 1: that we'll see prices begin to fall? Probably not right. 433 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 1: So I think these are the two things that I 434 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 1: would say what probably lead us to having prices remain elevated, 435 00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:55,760 Speaker 1: specifically for major battery matters in a short to near term, 436 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,639 Speaker 1: so until probably about the end of next year, I 437 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 1: would say that prices are likely to remain elevate. It 438 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 1: what I can confidently tell you that I don't think 439 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,200 Speaker 1: we will see a seven percent to jump in the 440 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: next eighteen months like we did the last eighteen months. 441 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,879 Speaker 1: And that's exactly what we've seen in the LFP on 442 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: switching battery chemistry, right, because when you go beyond a 443 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:19,879 Speaker 1: certain limits the market, you just destroying demand. Because the 444 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 1: market and alternatives now for a very short break stay 445 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 1: with us. So you're saying that there are a number 446 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,640 Speaker 1: of things that have disrupted the market that frankly, we're 447 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:38,159 Speaker 1: fairly unpredictable. And one was around this Russian invasion of 448 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 1: the Ukraine. Another one was around COVID containment policy in China. 449 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 1: And another thing that I know that we've not really 450 00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:47,239 Speaker 1: mentioned much but is definitely actively affecting pretty much all 451 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,920 Speaker 1: commodities markets and anything moving from place to place, is 452 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:54,080 Speaker 1: disruption within the shipping industry due to COVID and movement 453 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 1: of you know, things in ways that they weren't moving 454 00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,040 Speaker 1: prior to that. And we're still kind of recovering from 455 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:01,440 Speaker 1: that a couple of years on getting ships back to 456 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 1: where you know, they previously had been to manage supply 457 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,040 Speaker 1: and demand balance. So here we are, we've got these 458 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 1: points of disruption. You're mentioning that things are going to 459 00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:14,159 Speaker 1: start leveling off. That's how I interpret you saying that, 460 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 1: you know, the prices have risen, but we're not going 461 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 1: to see them rise to the same volume as before. 462 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 1: But within that we still are going to see rises, 463 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 1: right Like, things are still going to get more expensive exactly. 464 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,160 Speaker 1: So in the industry there is something probably like most industries, 465 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,479 Speaker 1: is something called demand destruction, right And if you recall 466 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,879 Speaker 1: Ale and I talked about the fact that based on 467 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,159 Speaker 1: what was happening in the DSc with cobalt and the 468 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:42,920 Speaker 1: fact that prices rules overnight to dollars pero metric tone, 469 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:48,359 Speaker 1: companies started looking for alternatives. Right, So you destroy a 470 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 1: portion of demand, because, look, money has a way of 471 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 1: really making people think beyond their comfort. Zonne. Right, if 472 00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,640 Speaker 1: you are in a business where your commodity put commodity 473 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,159 Speaker 1: costs champs over a thousand percent in a matter of 474 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,959 Speaker 1: days or months, you don't just think about where you're 475 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,200 Speaker 1: gonna look for money to pay that thousand percent in 476 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 1: commit You start thinking about what could actually be substituted 477 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,919 Speaker 1: for the ex expensive commodity. And we saw that happening 478 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 1: in the grid the utility industry, where when copper prices 479 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 1: shot up so high you're under certain limit, companies realize 480 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 1: we're hold on Actually aluminum doesn't conduct so good as copper. 481 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:29,960 Speaker 1: I think you can do the job data, maybe we 482 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:34,080 Speaker 1: can sort of create aluminium lies instead of copper. So 483 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:38,440 Speaker 1: that is what could potentially happen if prices rise as 484 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 1: rapid as they did the previous man, you destroy demand 485 00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,879 Speaker 1: and companies start looking for alternatives new technologies, new ways 486 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 1: of developing batteries, new ways of looking at the supplies, 487 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 1: a new deposits that are not reliant on certain countries, 488 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,119 Speaker 1: and people really start putting on the innovation cup. So 489 00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,639 Speaker 1: I think that's what's going to happen if the trend 490 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:02,399 Speaker 1: keeps going that way. What I can series that I 491 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,480 Speaker 1: don't think it's in the the supply side interest not 492 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 1: to push the ball further. So now I understand why 493 00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,720 Speaker 1: the title of your most recent battery Metals market outlooks 494 00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 1: that bumpy road ahead. Certainly there's a lot to consider here. 495 00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: Let me just back up and say that, you know, 496 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,400 Speaker 1: these are fundamental principles within understanding economics that are coming 497 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,399 Speaker 1: to light. And I don't think I've ever heard so 498 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:27,159 Speaker 1: many people discuss economics so often. How are we integrating 499 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:32,159 Speaker 1: information from economics which is, you know, not historically something 500 00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,479 Speaker 1: that we have researched, But we have a team within 501 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 1: Bloomer that does how have you integrated this into your research? 502 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,440 Speaker 1: Because there seems to be an almost seemingly never ending 503 00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:46,639 Speaker 1: list of variables that is included in your analysis. And 504 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:48,639 Speaker 1: where does one draw the line? So there are two 505 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:50,639 Speaker 1: ways we look at it, right from the Dumont side 506 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,800 Speaker 1: and the supply side, And I think let's start with 507 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,440 Speaker 1: the Dumont And I like my holiday's data. I do 508 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 1: try to go on one holiday. But then since ahead 509 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 1: that there is a probability of our recession, I started 510 00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:06,199 Speaker 1: thinking twice about some of the things that I actually 511 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:10,160 Speaker 1: do with my investment. So now I have a secularly 512 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 1: about the various subscriptions I'm on. And I think a 513 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,359 Speaker 1: lot of companies also start thinking about things this way 514 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:20,439 Speaker 1: whenever they are talks about recession or an impending recession. Right, 515 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 1: so you realize across board demand begins to decline. But 516 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 1: what we've actually seen, particularly in our electric vehicle outlook, 517 00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,640 Speaker 1: is that one of the few industries that could be insulated, 518 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 1: is our view or is electric vehicle industry. Sales of 519 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 1: electric vehicles is expected to grow this year and it's 520 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 1: expected to grow next year as well, similar to when 521 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 1: what we saw during the pandemic, where we thought that 522 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,200 Speaker 1: demand the struction will impact e V outlook, and it 523 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 1: did not. So I think for the demand side, the 524 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: demand for these battery metals will still remain. What does 525 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 1: economic recession and inflation do to supply and that is 526 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 1: where the dynamic, it's quite different. So then I've always 527 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:04,200 Speaker 1: I know, I've promised I will take you on the 528 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,880 Speaker 1: mind one day. If one day I get to do it, 529 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 1: there are two days where you would land on the mind. 530 00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 1: Is that your three most important cost factors. Number one, 531 00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:21,960 Speaker 1: the diesel you use in your trucks, so you hauld 532 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 1: your large boulders, big rocks with large trucks. And to 533 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 1: put it in contest, if you're looking at the Caterpillar 534 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 1: seven seven seven, which is a brand new for one 535 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 1: of those mega trucks, high loss two high loss right, 536 00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 1: if you're putting them side by side, the tire of 537 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,560 Speaker 1: the caterpular truck is bigger than a two high locks. 538 00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 1: These are more stross equipment you're looking at, and you 539 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 1: need barrels of diesel to fill them, to power them. 540 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:53,640 Speaker 1: And to put that in contest again, if you're operating 541 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:59,440 Speaker 1: a five hundred thousand olysis capacity gold mine, you will 542 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,920 Speaker 1: need about a hundred and ten million dollars on your 543 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 1: diesel annually. I learned, okay, So that is one. Number 544 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 1: two is your electricity bill that you will use to 545 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,200 Speaker 1: power your smell test and your processing plant. So this 546 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 1: is also quite very very important part. So about of 547 00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:22,000 Speaker 1: your cost is going into the electricity, and the third 548 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 1: one is your labor and a cross board for all 549 00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:28,000 Speaker 1: these three things, what is happening. We've seen high inflation 550 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:32,360 Speaker 1: for diesel or gas depending on where you are. We 551 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 1: are seeing high inflation on the electricity builds as well. 552 00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 1: And finally, also labor cost keeps going and going cost 553 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 1: labor but schedually becoming scared. So that is going to 554 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 1: be the impact of inflation on the operations of mind right. 555 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 1: And what that means is that even though we have 556 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:52,440 Speaker 1: seeing prices elevate and other and people are thinking Minus 557 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:57,840 Speaker 1: are cashion, they're probably not because inflation is catching upward costs. 558 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,400 Speaker 1: And once this happens, you don't have that much money 559 00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:04,520 Speaker 1: sitting around on your balance sheet to invest in new project, 560 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 1: to invest in new capacity, to invest in growth. So 561 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:12,160 Speaker 1: I think the biggest impact that this current inflation crisis 562 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:16,040 Speaker 1: would have on MINUS or mining company or companies that 563 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:20,040 Speaker 1: supply battery metals is a fact that I'm depending on 564 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,560 Speaker 1: where you sit, there will be much more capital discipline, 565 00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 1: just like I have been cutting back on holiday and 566 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:29,080 Speaker 1: subscriptions I don't need. Similarly, they would also be cutting 567 00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,440 Speaker 1: back on projects that could have potentially helped us to 568 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 1: meet growing demand. In future, they will have a second 569 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 1: look at that. So that would be the impact of 570 00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 1: inflation on the mind. In terms of a potential recession. 571 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 1: We still don't know for set to whatever will happen. 572 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,800 Speaker 1: What we do know is that it's very unlikely to 573 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,760 Speaker 1: impact himand in fact, demand is actually going to grow 574 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 1: the rest of this decade. So crazy. Where do we 575 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,040 Speaker 1: go from here? What other questions? These are the things 576 00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,120 Speaker 1: I wanted to cover. So I remember watching a box 577 00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:00,200 Speaker 1: on game and it was a gunny and I just 578 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 1: fought in Las Vegas, and he was asked the same 579 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:07,400 Speaker 1: question and he said, I'm going home. Okay, fair enough, 580 00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:11,680 Speaker 1: But then I'm just going on. I'm going to spend 581 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,240 Speaker 1: time to think about a couple of facts. So crazy. 582 00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,280 Speaker 1: You know, as we're looking at this, I think this 583 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:20,000 Speaker 1: has been more of a discussion around complexity in the spaces. 584 00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,320 Speaker 1: We're all trying to grapple with what this really means 585 00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,640 Speaker 1: for the future. We know that demand for electric vehicles 586 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,160 Speaker 1: is up and right, as many of the charts are, 587 00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 1: but this is definitely bumpy. This is changing how we 588 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:36,240 Speaker 1: think about the for delivery of what the electrification of 589 00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:38,440 Speaker 1: transport could it could potentially look like. And it's a 590 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,200 Speaker 1: really important factor as you outlined huge amount of the 591 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,160 Speaker 1: overall cost in a in an an electric vehicle, because 592 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,440 Speaker 1: the battery is a huge amount of the overall cost 593 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,360 Speaker 1: of an electric vehicles. So give me some final things 594 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:51,200 Speaker 1: to think about. What are the main things that I 595 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 1: should just keep in the back of my mind as 596 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,400 Speaker 1: I'm looking to analyze this space myself going forward. Yes, 597 00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,600 Speaker 1: so number one, I think let's start with the optimistic 598 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 1: fans right just so far that demand growth is common 599 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 1: that remains from change, and if we look across various 600 00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:08,960 Speaker 1: scenarios of what the future hosts economically for countries and 601 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,880 Speaker 1: us from a global perspective, I think that all the 602 00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:14,960 Speaker 1: electric vehicle or the battery metals demand market is quite 603 00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:18,640 Speaker 1: insulated and we expected to grow up to about now 604 00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,320 Speaker 1: we're doing quite a few millions in terms of material 605 00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:25,000 Speaker 1: demand that could reach about eighteen million metric tons by 606 00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:29,400 Speaker 1: twenty thirty from the ton batteries alone. Number two, the 607 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 1: little market is in a tight balance right like currently 608 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 1: there has been delayed investment and delayed production expansion that 609 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 1: needs to change. That ship needs to turn and we 610 00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,400 Speaker 1: need to see a lot more capital. My colleague Albert, 611 00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:49,400 Speaker 1: who leads our global analysis every year, put other report 612 00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,480 Speaker 1: which looks at the amount of investment going in the 613 00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:56,080 Speaker 1: energy transition. Unless start with the electric vehicle. Last year, 614 00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,960 Speaker 1: two hundred and seventy billion dollars went into the electric 615 00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:02,080 Speaker 1: vehicle industry. At the same time, seven billion went into 616 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:08,080 Speaker 1: the storage industry. At the minding level, less than one 617 00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 1: billion went into direct investment that went into products. So 618 00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,440 Speaker 1: this needs to change if we need to balance the 619 00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:18,680 Speaker 1: equation between supply and demand. For let's number three, for 620 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,880 Speaker 1: nicol as well, there are certain things that are beginning 621 00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:26,200 Speaker 1: to become a concern. Indonesia produces about twent of global 622 00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,960 Speaker 1: nickel's supply, and if you look at Indonesia where we 623 00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:33,760 Speaker 1: are getting the supply form those corners of the world 624 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:37,240 Speaker 1: are places that have one of the most polluting grids, 625 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,960 Speaker 1: mostly coal. And all the government is thinking about using 626 00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:44,080 Speaker 1: hydro electric power as well as other sources of clean 627 00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:48,160 Speaker 1: energy for these minds and these smeltors, but until then 628 00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,719 Speaker 1: they remain one of the most pollutant And if you 629 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,880 Speaker 1: think about the fact that the world would depend on 630 00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:58,640 Speaker 1: nickel and by extension Indonesia's nickel. Something drastic needs to 631 00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:02,480 Speaker 1: be done about that. Number four. I've talked about cobalts, 632 00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,000 Speaker 1: and I've talked about the supplies and challenges with ethical 633 00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 1: issues around and child living the g r C. Inspite 634 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,040 Speaker 1: of the demand instruction that this has caused and the 635 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:16,320 Speaker 1: fact that companies have switched significantly two technologies like LFB, 636 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,360 Speaker 1: there's only that much that you can switch, right, because 637 00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:23,520 Speaker 1: he has this limitation of range. And regardless of that, 638 00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:27,479 Speaker 1: if you're looking at long range electric vehicles, you still 639 00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:33,279 Speaker 1: need cobalt inclusive batteries speaking generally right, So we'll still 640 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,279 Speaker 1: depend on cobalts and demand will ultimately grow when you 641 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,520 Speaker 1: look at it from the overall market perspective, and as such, 642 00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,799 Speaker 1: we cannot do our way with the DRC. You've seen 643 00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:46,040 Speaker 1: quite a number of companies actually move into the DRC 644 00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,719 Speaker 1: to work with our tisanal minors, and I think that 645 00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,720 Speaker 1: that will be the writing to do, where companies partner 646 00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:55,200 Speaker 1: with these small skilled protests to ensure they do the 647 00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:57,879 Speaker 1: right things, so we can bring their supply chain into 648 00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:01,400 Speaker 1: the ethical sources of COBA as well to ensure that 649 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,719 Speaker 1: we don't follow over a cliff. But then we do 650 00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:06,840 Speaker 1: have consistent supplied that would enable us to me demand, 651 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,480 Speaker 1: and once we do that, prices will be contained and 652 00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:12,480 Speaker 1: we wouldn't have the adoption of EVI is being delayed. 653 00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,080 Speaker 1: And I think the fifth one, I would sort of 654 00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:18,000 Speaker 1: deviate from all that I've talked about in our report, 655 00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:26,520 Speaker 1: and I would say that don't panic. We've talked about turbulence. 656 00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,440 Speaker 1: But then one thing that I have not talked about 657 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,320 Speaker 1: yet because obviously it's out of scoope, is the ingenuity 658 00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:36,840 Speaker 1: of human capability that we've seen quite a number of 659 00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,719 Speaker 1: industries where there are points where you sort of hit 660 00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:46,239 Speaker 1: the wall, but look, humans, humans, human intelligence, news, no limitation. 661 00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,160 Speaker 1: Out of nowhere, there could be a potential new technology 662 00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:54,239 Speaker 1: to extract lythium, and there's directly to instraction technology that 663 00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:58,520 Speaker 1: a companying Leila is currently trying. Out of nowhere, you 664 00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:01,040 Speaker 1: could have a different battery chemistry that would go to 665 00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:04,000 Speaker 1: market within a short period to address some of the 666 00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,759 Speaker 1: supply chain concents. Out of nowhere, we're gonna make a 667 00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:12,400 Speaker 1: newer mineral deposit who knows in the country like America, Europe, 668 00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:17,200 Speaker 1: Southeast Asia, South America, which would ease the supply crunch 669 00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,680 Speaker 1: were out of nowhere, we could have most of these 670 00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:24,640 Speaker 1: supply chain issues resolved. And also out of nowhere we 671 00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:28,880 Speaker 1: could have world peace, whether disruption term disruptions that we 672 00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:33,480 Speaker 1: have seen now would be eliminated, and by then these 673 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,960 Speaker 1: turbulence that I did talk about, which could actually impasse 674 00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:41,239 Speaker 1: CV adoption, EV sills and the EV revolution would have 675 00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:44,000 Speaker 1: been resolved. And I'm pretty sure that we'll get back 676 00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,919 Speaker 1: on track, So don't panic. Well, on that optimistic note, Quaise, 677 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,319 Speaker 1: You've certainly given us a lot to think about. I'm 678 00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,160 Speaker 1: not so sure that world pieces on the cards underpinned 679 00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,719 Speaker 1: by the battery metals market, but I do appreciate your 680 00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:58,480 Speaker 1: very positive outlook on things, but also the fact that 681 00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:02,600 Speaker 1: you know there's certainly maybe it's the better way to encapsulate. 682 00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,080 Speaker 1: From my end, what you were just saying is, don't panic, 683 00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:09,680 Speaker 1: but do analysis. And also the innovation is central to 684 00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,279 Speaker 1: not just this industry, but so many industries of the 685 00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,799 Speaker 1: topics that we cover, and that certainly is true. I mean, 686 00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,759 Speaker 1: the amount of change even just since we started doing 687 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,319 Speaker 1: this show. It's been a couple of years, not that long, 688 00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:25,160 Speaker 1: and I have seen so much innovation and convention market 689 00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:28,120 Speaker 1: over these conversations that we've had and just like you 690 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,480 Speaker 1: were saying regarding the you know, coldball chart, that you 691 00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:34,920 Speaker 1: were looking at the change in battery chemistries, it's truly 692 00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:38,880 Speaker 1: fascinating to see how things are developing going forward. So 693 00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:42,160 Speaker 1: on that note, I look forward to having you back 694 00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:44,200 Speaker 1: on the show to see what has happened in the 695 00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:47,680 Speaker 1: battery metal space over the next year to a couple 696 00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,400 Speaker 1: of years. And in the meantime, we'll keep producing market 697 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,520 Speaker 1: outlooks to ponder these and thank you for joining us today. 698 00:38:53,560 --> 00:39:00,800 Speaker 1: Thank you, and thank you to listeners as well. Today's 699 00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:03,560 Speaker 1: episode of Switched On was edited by Rex Warner of 700 00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,759 Speaker 1: gray Stoke Media. Bloomberg an e F as a service 701 00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:09,200 Speaker 1: provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and its affiliates. This recording 702 00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,120 Speaker 1: does not constitute, nor should it be construed as investment advice, 703 00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:16,040 Speaker 1: investment recommendations, or recommendation as to an investment or other strategy. 704 00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:18,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg ani F should not be considered as information sufficient 705 00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:22,000 Speaker 1: upon which to base an investment decision. Neither Bloomberg Finance 706 00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:24,840 Speaker 1: LP nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or 707 00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,560 Speaker 1: warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information 708 00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,520 Speaker 1: contained in this recording, and any liability of this recording 709 00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:31,800 Speaker 1: is expressly disclaimed.