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Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia

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Speaker 1: or West Virginia. Gambling problem called one eight hundred next

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Speaker 1: Line at one eight eight nine, or visit one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites,

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Speaker 1: the podcast from the Value and Podcast Network. Guyam Chad Milman,

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Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It is Tuesday

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Speaker 1: of Conference Championship Week. I am joined as always by

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Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, my bff, my compadre, my

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Speaker 1: fellow winner, Big Big Winner. We returned to being not

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Speaker 1: just the biggest baddest best betting podcast in the world,

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Speaker 1: but the biggest baddest best betters in the world. Simon Hunter,

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Speaker 1: professional better wise Man once said to meet Chad, if

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Speaker 1: you win, they will come and buddy, have we been winning.

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Speaker 1: We've been winning and it's great and we're gonna we're

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Speaker 1: gonna get to all that. We're gonna get to. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: our thoughts on Bengals and the Chiefs, the Cincinnati Bengals

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Speaker 1: came roaring back, and the Niners and the Rams, the

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Speaker 1: side in the total. We have so much to discuss.

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Speaker 1: The weekend was amazing, the football was amazing. We were

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Speaker 1: wrong on the Titans, we were spot on about the Niners.

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Speaker 1: We were spot on about the Rams, and we were

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Speaker 1: on about the Chiefs in what seems like the only

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Speaker 1: two people in the world who do this from a

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Speaker 1: betting point of view, who liked the Chiefs, and we're

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about that, but first, obviously, the Chiefs were

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Speaker 1: playing the Bills. Matt Mitchell has discussed his love of

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Speaker 1: Bill's Dumb often. He last week rotated through every piece

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Speaker 1: of Bills clothing in his wardrobe ord every day or

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Speaker 1: every day through the playoffs, been buying ice cream for

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Speaker 1: his neighbors when the Bills win, to entice them into

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Speaker 1: becoming Bills fans. I was heartbroken about that game for him.

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Speaker 1: I would have rather have lost our bet and won

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Speaker 1: the game then have won the bet at some point

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Speaker 1: because it was just so enthralling. Let me tell you

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Speaker 1: what a problem Matt Mitchell is, because I slacked you

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Speaker 1: and him, and I said, I'm heartbroken for you. Totally

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Speaker 1: good if you want to take the week off. Matt

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Speaker 1: Mitchell was bright and early in a meeting the next day,

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Speaker 1: as if you know, life just goes on. And when

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Speaker 1: we when we all got on the zoom for the podcast,

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Speaker 1: you and I were already on Simon talking and then

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Speaker 1: Matt jumped in, and your response to him was, hey, Matt,

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Speaker 1: as if like he was in mourning. So Matt Mitchell,

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Speaker 1: I'll stop up give us some feedback. He Chad Simon.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't a great game. I wouldn't say I had

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Speaker 1: a blast, but as you know, I live in the

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Speaker 1: buckle of the dairy belt, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and last year

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Speaker 1: the Packers and the Bills lost in conference title games

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Speaker 1: within like four hours of each other, and my block

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Speaker 1: was it was bleak, and I remember telling my neighbors,

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Speaker 1: at least it'll ever be like this, can never be

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Speaker 1: this sad again. And then a year later, the Packers

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Speaker 1: lose out a blocked punt in prime time, and the

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Speaker 1: next day in prime time, the Bills lose a gut wrenching,

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Speaker 1: awful game in which I tricked all of my neighbors

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Speaker 1: into getting emotionally invested into so they could get the

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Speaker 1: metaphorical two scoops of punishment. My neighbor, Andrew his wife Emily,

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Speaker 1: was the most excited about ice cream and actually texted me,

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Speaker 1: I'm so excited for you. I'm so excited for ice

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Speaker 1: cream with thirty seconds to go, before being screamed at

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Speaker 1: by everyone in a group text. Then after the game,

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Speaker 1: ran across the street with the world's largest slice of

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Speaker 1: apple pie, knocked on my door and ran away. So

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Speaker 1: I just ate the pie in silence in my dark kitchen.

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Speaker 1: And it did work. It did make me feel noticeably

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Speaker 1: less angry, because you know, when you lose a game

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Speaker 1: like that, you know it's bad. When you get texts

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Speaker 1: like you have a beautiful family, When you get when

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Speaker 1: you get texts like you're a make a wish child

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Speaker 1: and you're gonna be fine. You're gonna be fine. You've

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Speaker 1: got all sorts of stuff going for you, stuff like that,

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Speaker 1: you know it's you know, it's pretty bad. I do

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Speaker 1: remember after the game looking back, and I'll never ever

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Speaker 1: in my in my life if I lived to be

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Speaker 1: a thousand years old, while I willingly watch higlots from

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Speaker 1: that game ever again, I do remember, for the first

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Speaker 1: time I think I can, I can recall a drunk

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Speaker 1: guy running onto the field made it onto the broadcast

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Speaker 1: because at the two minute warning, he like made it

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Speaker 1: to the line of scrimmage, and looking back, it feels

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Speaker 1: like he might have just been a time traveler coming

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Speaker 1: to warn Sean McDermott that when you score this touchdown,

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Speaker 1: you got a script kicker so that you can take

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Speaker 1: another five seconds off the clock. But either way, he

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Speaker 1: fell short, just like Buffalo. My heart is broken. But

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Speaker 1: you know, you just keep moving on, You keep one

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Speaker 1: ft in front of the other. You keep delivering best

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Speaker 1: in class podcasts to the masses. You are a fucking

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Speaker 1: pro and you're an adult, and I love you for it,

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Speaker 1: and I love you for your attitude. I'm here for support,

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Speaker 1: as is Simon. There's lots of unpack on what you

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Speaker 1: just said. I love the community you're living in that

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Speaker 1: everyone is all for one, one for all. I love

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Speaker 1: that even in the buckle of the dairy belt where

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Speaker 1: it's two degrees outside, people are still cheering to have

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Speaker 1: ice cream. And also that someone ran across the street.

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Speaker 1: I bet they weren't even wearing a coat when it

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Speaker 1: was two degrees outside and delivered you apple pie. That's amazing.

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Speaker 1: It was snowing too, so by the time I got

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Speaker 1: to the pie there was a little bit of snow

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Speaker 1: on it. It was a real metaphor for what was

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Speaker 1: going on. So, yeah, it's a nice community we built here.

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Speaker 1: As someone from Western New York. It was heartening to

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Speaker 1: just see everyone in town, especially on my block, shuffling

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Speaker 1: around extra miserable on a Monday because all sports hope

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Speaker 1: it's been lost. It's a very familiar feeling to me,

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Speaker 1: very comforting, like a warm blanket here in this cold basement.

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Speaker 1: I would speak as someone that has spoken a total

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Speaker 1: of three words to their neighbors, because I'm pretty sure

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Speaker 1: they all think I'm like a hit man or a

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Speaker 1: drug dealer or something like that. Because I'm some young

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Speaker 1: kid living in a really nice neighborhood. I'm jealous. Seems like, man,

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Speaker 1: some good friends I live around him. I would love

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Speaker 1: to have someone dropped me off pie in the middle

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Speaker 1: of the night. I'm definitely a one of those people

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Speaker 1: in my generation where it's like I have four friends

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Speaker 1: and that's that's all I can fit, you know. But

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Speaker 1: my neighbors are nice. I do the wave like we wave.

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Speaker 1: I just don't like they look at me like, what

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Speaker 1: what's this dude up to? Very ship like I'll be

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Speaker 1: gone for weeks at a time. It's just they don't

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Speaker 1: trust them. Well I can understand why they don't. I

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Speaker 1: mean again, we'll dive into the games. Chad but Matt,

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Speaker 1: Matt's just handling it really well. I'm proud of our guy,

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Speaker 1: fucking pro I just love the guy. Uh. You know

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Speaker 1: who did trust you this weekend? Me because that was

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Speaker 1: not on that Niner side. You convinced me to do it.

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Speaker 1: By definition, you convinced me. You convinced me on our show,

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Speaker 1: convinced me on at Action Network ag Q on Sundays.

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Speaker 1: We will do the show this Sunday at eleven am Eastern.

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Speaker 1: I didn't really have a take on that game. You're like,

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Speaker 1: you gotta do San Francisco. I did it. I felt

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Speaker 1: great about it. We all felt great about it. But

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Speaker 1: that Chief's game, well, you and I we loved the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs from the second the line was posted. Because of Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: That was it. Like, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: it didn't need to be any more complicated than that.

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Speaker 1: Mahomes at home, best quarterback of his generation, needed ten

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Speaker 1: seconds to go forty five yards. Yeah, that was it.

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Speaker 1: Like we joked about keep it simple, but that's like

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Speaker 1: sometimes it really is that way. Me never fading my

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Speaker 1: homes unless it's against Brady has been Has it really

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Speaker 1: served me well in these playoffs and just his career.

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Speaker 1: This is what fourth straight AFC championship games for Patrick,

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Speaker 1: so it's it's pretty historical and there's gonna be for

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Speaker 1: us to be better Bills fans where it's like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: they got lucky, and we'll talk about every game this

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Speaker 1: past weekend. You need luck to win these games. We

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Speaker 1: talked about that's why I didn't really like the Bucks

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Speaker 1: to make our run to another Super Bowl. It's like,

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Speaker 1: go back through what they did last year. All the

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Speaker 1: little bounces went their way and again we'll talk about

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Speaker 1: the Bucks game. The Bounces almost went their way again,

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Speaker 1: but this Bills game was just it's the dream. It

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Speaker 1: really is. Chead. It's like we have a sport where

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Speaker 1: we lose a Peyton Manning, we lose the Drew Brees

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Speaker 1: incomes the Josh Allen and comes to my homes and

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Speaker 1: now we have this matchup for you know, the next

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Speaker 1: ten fifty years. Like you saw them embraced after the game,

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Speaker 1: and it's like these two dudes love each other, the

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Speaker 1: respect each other, and it's like that's the highest level.

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Speaker 1: That's gonna be the highest level of QB competition. We'll

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Speaker 1: see this whole playoffs like there's nothing and there's no

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Speaker 1: other matchup I could see really compared to that one,

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Speaker 1: and you could see I was getting piste off. I

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Speaker 1: couldn't stand people keep telling me about the Bills number

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Speaker 1: one d v O A defense. It was like, what

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Speaker 1: the fund does that even mean? Like they're playing against

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Speaker 1: once in a generational talent and my Homes. It's like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: their defense, they might be able to get stops here

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Speaker 1: and there, but it's like when my Homes wants it,

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Speaker 1: when the Andy Reid's cooking up those plays, Tyreek Hills

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Speaker 1: running down that field, Kelsey's running down the field, It's

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Speaker 1: it's just an offense that just can't be stopped. And

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Speaker 1: that was a classic matchup where whoever had the ball

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Speaker 1: last was gonna win. We talked about that going in.

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Speaker 1: Our biggest reason for liking Homes is it was under

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Speaker 1: a field goal, like that game, what they missed. They

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Speaker 1: missed a field goal, they missed that extra point with

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. It's like that game. That number was so smart. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it sucks people got burned by the it lanted on

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Speaker 1: six because of the overtime, But that Dad, to me,

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Speaker 1: was just such a perfect example. Here's just two great offenses.

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Speaker 1: You know and meach I love bend Unders. I told you,

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna bet be over Like I just in

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Speaker 1: in that matchup, I just could not see where it

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Speaker 1: was gonna go to an under Like we knew that

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter was gonna be be mental. Yeah, we did

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Speaker 1: not see that coming. That was Josh Allen did everything

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Speaker 1: you could do right in that game. That's what I

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Speaker 1: feel so bad about Bills fans where it's like he

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Speaker 1: had two touchdowns on fourth down, Like every time they

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Speaker 1: needed to step up and make a play, he kept

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Speaker 1: doing it. And yeah, people can betch Himan about their

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Speaker 1: coach kicking those punts and him do squipt kicking in

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Speaker 1: and doing whatever. At the end of the game. It's

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Speaker 1: like easy to say standing back that that coach, that team,

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Speaker 1: they almost played a perfect game. They just went up

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Speaker 1: against something we've never seen before. It's like, my homes

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady ain't doing that Tom Brady. We've never seen

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady drive a field in ten seconds. It's like

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Speaker 1: that one player, that one offense, the one playmaking weapons

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Speaker 1: he's had. I mean, you're with me, Chad, that was

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Speaker 1: I mean, other than Super Bowls, that's the greatest game

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Speaker 1: will probably ever say, unbelievable. You say that, Uh, you

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Speaker 1: didn't see the last two minutes unfolding that way. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go a little dad proud here for a second.

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Speaker 1: Three because three things and it all ties together. One

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Speaker 1: watching that game with my kid, Owen, he's fifteen, and uh,

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Speaker 1: the Bills have the ball, and he goes, here's what's

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Speaker 1: gonna happen. The Bills are going to score, the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: will get the ball back, they'll score. The Bills are

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Speaker 1: going to score, and then the Chiefs are gonna score.

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Speaker 1: He just he I'm like, dude, you're an idiot. That's

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Speaker 1: never gonna happen. And then that's exactly what happened. He

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Speaker 1: is texting me right now from one floor below me

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Speaker 1: to tell me that there are reports that Sean Payton

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Speaker 1: is retiring as head coach of the New Orleans Saints. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean we talked last week about that. We we

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Speaker 1: think he's gonna go somewhere else. Obviously, he's not retiring

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Speaker 1: from football like Chad. He said, you're retiring from the Saint.

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Speaker 1: So again, I thought it was suspicious all these teams

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Speaker 1: have been doing the flying holding pattern, not hiring any

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Speaker 1: of these coaches like this is late for no one

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Speaker 1: to be hired as a head coach. I think we

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Speaker 1: just gotta answer why people want to get on Peyton

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Speaker 1: arguably a top four, top five coach in the NFL

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Speaker 1: right now. Sean Payton, Chicago kid played for the Chicago

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Speaker 1: Bears as a as a strike quarterback as a replacement

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Speaker 1: player quarterback during the strike in the nineteen eighties. The Bears.

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Speaker 1: This is the third thing about my kid that I

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Speaker 1: will say that is relevant. Just hired Ryan Poles from

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Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs player personnel director as their new GM.

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Speaker 1: The reason I know that is because the second had happened.

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Speaker 1: My kid ran upstairs and I was in a zoom

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Speaker 1: meeting with our overlords from Denmark and some of our

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Speaker 1: colleagues from London, and I was presenting something. He doesn't

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Speaker 1: give a fuck. He came in started talking, reading me

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Speaker 1: the news report about Ryan Poles being hired, and I

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Speaker 1: couldn't find the mute button because I was sharing my screen.

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Speaker 1: I just let him keep going. Also, I kind of

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Speaker 1: want to know what he had to say, because he

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Speaker 1: only comes up here when something important has had inning

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Speaker 1: with the Bulls or the Bears. So I found that

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Speaker 1: out and when it was over, I just had to

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Speaker 1: be The news never stopped at the Action Network people.

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Speaker 1: Nothing can keep the news from being broken. That's how

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Speaker 1: into sports we are, and that's how we went through

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Speaker 1: the rest of the meeting. So now we know that

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Speaker 1: Sean Payton's available, we know the Bears have a new GM,

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Speaker 1: things are looking up. From my guys in Chicago. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: for all the losing teams losing franchises, this is as

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Speaker 1: exciting as it gets for us. The off season, we

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Speaker 1: got some big games. Man. No, let's um. Let's I

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Speaker 1: mean that again. The least past week we talked about

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Speaker 1: we missed on the Titans. People want us to break

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Speaker 1: that down. I don't hate the Bengals. Chad doesn't hate

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Speaker 1: the Bengals. We just thought that was a good spot

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Speaker 1: for the Chiefs. They got nine sacks like that was

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Speaker 1: historical what we saw. I believe it was Donnan the McNabb.

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Speaker 1: You got sacked eight times and he won a game

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Speaker 1: in two thousand, two thousand one playoff game, which was

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Speaker 1: the last time it had happened. Joe Burrow sacked nine times,

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Speaker 1: didn't have his best game. But this is why people

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Speaker 1: keep talking about Joe Cool. The biggest moment. They got

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Speaker 1: the ball back twenty seconds left. They ran their best

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Speaker 1: play to Chase, which was a really nice pattern across

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Speaker 1: the field that broke them right to the sideline. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's like, I'm so happy for Bengals fans again, We're

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Speaker 1: gonna make our picks, like coming up, but the Bengals

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Speaker 1: forty niners, Like whatever the matchup will be. If the

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Speaker 1: Bengals could somehow beat the Chiefs team, it's like it

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Speaker 1: might be one of my favorite stories of the last

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Speaker 1: fifteen twenty years. It's insane, this this franchise that was

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Speaker 1: whatever they'll say they were a hundred fifty one to

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Speaker 1: make the Super Bowl. Crazy crazy. So that game that

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Speaker 1: was just fun. Like I I had the under sweating

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Speaker 1: the Titans, like kept getting sucked back in where it's like,

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Speaker 1: holy ship, the Titans are back, Like tan Hill just

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Speaker 1: doesn't can't turn the ball over. We'll get this. They

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Speaker 1: run some stupid ass play in that third and one,

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Speaker 1: some dumbass play again on fourth and one where it's

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Speaker 1: like we're we're not gonna get this cover, are we?

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Speaker 1: And we didn't. We lost. Tannehill couldn't stop turning it over.

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Speaker 1: I hate that I got sucked in that, Like the

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Speaker 1: books know what they do, and they sucked in people

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Speaker 1: like me where it's like a great running team, a

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Speaker 1: one seed they had beaten there were four and now

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Speaker 1: against the teams that were remaining in the playoffs at

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Speaker 1: that point, like they had been all those teams in

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Speaker 1: the regular season. And Tannehill turned back into a pumpkin

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Speaker 1: like he fucked us. And that sucks. But that's what

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Speaker 1: we played the numbers Chad like, I can't predict him

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Speaker 1: having all those turnovers. But um Man, since they might

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Speaker 1: be get lucky here, but they've earned it. They've had

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Speaker 1: two big wins against Air Karr and Tannehill. Well, look,

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Speaker 1: there was a moment in that game where it looked

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Speaker 1: like we were gonna walk away with an undeserved cover.

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Speaker 1: It was, you know, fourth and one on the Bengals

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Speaker 1: twenty something yard line, and if the Titans get that,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna go score touchdown. And I think I don't

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Speaker 1: think the Bengals would have recovered because they were being

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Speaker 1: dominated at that point. Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: Look the Chiefs. Look, a headline was six and a half.

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Speaker 1: We were telling people that the Chiefs at six and

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Speaker 1: a half, like it'll it will open back up at

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Speaker 1: seven if the Chiefs win. So it does. The Chiefs

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Speaker 1: are seven point favorites right now. The total in this

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Speaker 1: game fifty four and a half. This is the early

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Speaker 1: game on Sunday. What do we think here? Obviously my

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Speaker 1: instincts right away when it was seven and a half

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Speaker 1: with the Bengals is like, take that Bengals number. It's

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Speaker 1: a good number. The numbers make it. I should say

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Speaker 1: it's to open it. It was a six and a

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Speaker 1: half look ahead, got to seven when it opened again,

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Speaker 1: got to seven and a half. Now it's been back

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Speaker 1: down to seven. I make this line six and a half.

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Speaker 1: So technically I'm just a favorite the Bengals here, But

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Speaker 1: I just I can't do it. Can't go against my homes.

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Speaker 1: The Bengals have beaten their car at home. Then they

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Speaker 1: just went beat Ryan Tannehill African stack nine times. Now

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Speaker 1: they're going to play the Chiefs in Arrowhead in a

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Speaker 1: matchup where they had to hold the Chiefs of three

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Speaker 1: points in the second half at home to cover and

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Speaker 1: beat them by three points. I love it. I like

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Speaker 1: love this whole since his story and like that's why

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Speaker 1: I don't want to be the guy to be like

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Speaker 1: you take the Chalker, you take the Chiefs. But like

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Speaker 1: the public, they're all over this one. I know a

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Speaker 1: bunch of professionals I talked to. They got in on that.

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Speaker 1: Since the number at seven and a half, that's a

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Speaker 1: good number to me, those seven that kind of even

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Speaker 1: though again I make this number six and a half,

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Speaker 1: I think that favorite towards the Chief's team, Like that

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Speaker 1: feels like the right number for this match up. Again,

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Speaker 1: I want to take the Bengal so bad. I love

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Speaker 1: this story. It's it's insane to me, Like I really

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Speaker 1: cannot believe where they're at. Just everything I had to

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Speaker 1: bounce their way from the win the North. Now they

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Speaker 1: had two playoff matchups, which again we can shoot on

359
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Speaker 1: them that it's easy matchups. Those are hard games to win,

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Speaker 1: Like those are big time playoff games against the veteran quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: They've won and like Zach Taylor, he's coached well, And

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Speaker 1: like I love shooting on that guy because I don't

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Speaker 1: think he's gonna coach, but he's done enough, Like he's

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Speaker 1: gotten the team in this position. It's obviously worked. I

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Speaker 1: can't not go with the Chiefs, like, I just can't

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Speaker 1: do it. So maybe it'll change come Thursday. But as

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Speaker 1: we sit here right now, like it's not my favorite bet,

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Speaker 1: like I I just I like the Chiefs. I think

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Speaker 1: it's a fair number. It's a good price. I would

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Speaker 1: take it. But you can hope out, like maybe the

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Speaker 1: professionals are coming and keep betting down this Bengal's number,

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Speaker 1: But to me, I can only see it going up.

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Speaker 1: So I'm cool with taking the Chiefs now at this seven.

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Speaker 1: And um, if I need to buy out or if

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Speaker 1: I want to come back on the Bengals and bet more,

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Speaker 1: I'll definitely keep your bill updated. But this, this to me,

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Speaker 1: is just a fair price for the Chief's number. Pros

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Speaker 1: Joe's game right now of the bets on the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: per cent of the money on the Bengals. But but

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Speaker 1: I do think I do think that that is really

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Speaker 1: because of the seven and a half. You know, at seven,

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Speaker 1: I think things are going to even out a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I don't see bookmakers coming off of the seven. It's

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Speaker 1: two key of the number. I think they know that

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Speaker 1: if they go back to seven and a half, the

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Speaker 1: wise guys are gonna pummel it. I think if they know,

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Speaker 1: if if money does come in on on the Bengals

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Speaker 1: at seven and they go to six and a half,

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Speaker 1: people are gonna kill the six and a half. Like

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Speaker 1: they they sort of got it to seven and a

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Speaker 1: half to they put it at seven and a half

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Speaker 1: to see what they could tolerate. Now they know it's

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Speaker 1: at seven, it's gonna stay there. So it really is

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Speaker 1: going to come down to do you like Patrick Mahomes,

395
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Speaker 1: Do you like Joe Burrow? That's really it. It's just

396
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 1: a fair number as we sit here. But if they

397
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Speaker 1: get blown out thirty one to ten, the Bengals, we

398
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Speaker 1: won't hold anything against them. Like it's they went from

399
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Speaker 1: having the number one pick two years ago and taking

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow to the a f C Championship game. Like

401
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 1: every franchise, that's your dream, Like your dream is to

402
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Speaker 1: get the quarterback and then he makes a run in

403
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Speaker 1: the playoffs. So yeah, keep it simple, stupid here, take

404
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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. But I gotta talk to their professionals, Like

405
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Speaker 1: I just know that a bunch of guys I respect

406
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Speaker 1: already got in on the Bengals. I want to know

407
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Speaker 1: if it's just because the number of seven and a

408
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Speaker 1: half and he thought that was a good value, Or

409
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Speaker 1: do you really think this Bengals team can do this

410
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Speaker 1: and pull the upset? Like again, I'm still like halfway

411
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Speaker 1: halfway catching up to this week just because, like I

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Speaker 1: just talked about us such a crazy weekend. I obviously

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Speaker 1: one big cause I was celebrating. So it's like I'm

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Speaker 1: kind of getting my bearings here this morning and trying

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00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 1: to get everything and get more info. But I've talked

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Speaker 1: to a handful of groups and again, well we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about the next game too, but they love the dogs

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Speaker 1: this week and it's key numbers. We're talking seven and

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Speaker 1: a half for the Bengals, We're talking three and a

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Speaker 1: half for the four nineers, and if you do like

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs, I would take the seven. I just can't.

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Speaker 1: I can see this bumping back episode and a half.

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Speaker 1: But Chad just talked about so much pro money came

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Speaker 1: in on that seven and a half. It's gonna take

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Speaker 1: a lot for the books and move it back into that,

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Speaker 1: like the public will really have to come and have

427
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 1: you on the Chiefs, which that's that's the only way

428
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,159
Speaker 1: this is gonna move. Like I like, like Chad, you

429
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,200
Speaker 1: just said, I can't see this touch in six. That's

430
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 1: such a six and a half, seven and seven and

431
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 1: a half six, These are all key numbers. I really

432
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 1: can't see them open themselves up to a one and

433
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 1: a half middle where they're moving it down to six. Now,

434
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 1: if this game lands on seven, Pros could hit the

435
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:52,480
Speaker 1: six on the Chiefs and hit the seven half of

436
00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:56,120
Speaker 1: the Bengals. They don't want that position, So I don't

437
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 1: see much movement going on with this number dropping down.

438
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 1: The total is also interesting. It's a fifty four and

439
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 1: a half, so it's it's you know, in key number

440
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 1: range being a key number. It plays the way you

441
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 1: think about it to the over, right, because explosive offenses

442
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,679
Speaker 1: not great defenses. As as well as the Chiefs have played,

443
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 1: there's still not a sort of high caliber defense. The

444
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 1: Bengals rush defense can be good, not as good in

445
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,719
Speaker 1: the past defense. So it plays to the over. But

446
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,640
Speaker 1: it almost feels too square to be playing the over. Yeah,

447
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 1: but like we we talked about, I throw that square

448
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 1: stuff out when gets plus, like that's the over. Last week,

449
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 1: I think it was nine to one the money on

450
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 1: the over. But the Bills Chief game, we took it

451
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 1: because it's like, yeah, I love fading the public, but

452
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 1: when it comes in the playoffs, we just see it

453
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 1: time and time agetting. This weird, wacky stuff is gonna happen. So,

454
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 1: like you had to talk about, my instincts are go under,

455
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 1: Like take the dog, take the under. Matthews getting the

456
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:57,639
Speaker 1: honey Badger got knocked out. I believe it was the

457
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,919
Speaker 1: first series against the Bills was a big deal. We

458
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 1: saw multiple blown coverages, especially by that backup safety that

459
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 1: came into that game for that Chief's team. That's a

460
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 1: big deal for this Chiefs defense, like they need him back. Man.

461
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 1: You're right, Chad, Like I, I haven't obviously been on

462
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 1: this total yet. I want to take the under, but

463
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 1: I just can't do it. These two quarterbacks we talked about, Joe,

464
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 1: Joe just never gives up. My only fear is I

465
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 1: saw Zach Taylor kind of play a little bit like

466
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 1: a coward last week kicking those field goals. I saw

467
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: the same thing with Andy Reid Andrey had a fourth

468
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,679
Speaker 1: and one with the best quarterback in football, which if

469
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 1: he would have scored a touchdown in that possession, they

470
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 1: would have been up two scores on the Bills, he

471
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 1: kicked the meaningless a pointless field goal, like again, fourth

472
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 1: and one inside the red zone after a big return

473
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 1: by Tyrek Hill. I thought there was no chance after

474
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 1: that point return they were going to kick a field

475
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 1: goal there, and he did so again. I have to

476
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 1: take more time looking at this, but yeah, I leaned

477
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 1: towards the over just because of both these quarterbacks. But

478
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 1: these these these coaches played towards the under like they

479
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 1: they play more of the old school style of just

480
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 1: taking the points in your down there, trust your defense.

481
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: So um um, again, I'm leaning towards the ender. But

482
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,919
Speaker 1: there's no official leaning towards the over, but no official

483
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:13,400
Speaker 1: play yet. We will lock things in on Thursday, as

484
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 1: we do every single week. Tuesday is our first reaction, uh,

485
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 1: thinking about where the biggest opportunities are. Thursday we begin

486
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 1: to think about locking things in based on market news,

487
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 1: based on trends we've seen, based on calls we've made, etcetera, etcetera.

488
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 1: Last Thursday, Chad, we went six and two on side

489
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 1: in totals, So pretty pretty good. All right, let's talk

490
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 1: about Let's talk about the Niners San Francisco forty Niners

491
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 1: at Los Angeles Rams. We talked about this on convinced

492
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 1: me to convinced me. We've been like rocket fuel fire.

493
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:53,360
Speaker 1: We said, if this game is it three, you want

494
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,959
Speaker 1: to bet the three and this game open to three

495
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 1: and a half. I'm talking about the Rams and the Forts.

496
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,160
Speaker 1: It opened a three and a half immediately Sunday night.

497
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 1: What's amazing to me is that there's still three and

498
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 1: a half's out there, like three and a half minus

499
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:12,159
Speaker 1: one fifteen. I jumped on it so quickly on Sunday

500
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: night because I was worried like it would last for

501
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 1: about thirty seconds. I don't know why it's still at

502
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: three and a half. It makes no sense to me.

503
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,400
Speaker 1: Pros are split. I told you coming into the playoffs,

504
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: really smart professional groups. They bet big money on the

505
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 1: Rams in the preseason to make it to a Super Bowl,

506
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 1: to win a Super Bowl. That was something they were

507
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: really harping on. I never got behind it. I just

508
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: couldn't believe it. With Stafford and yeah, I bet Stafford

509
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 1: against Arizona and I took him against the Bucks in

510
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 1: that last matchup, but it was purely matchup base Like again,

511
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: that's my favorite thing is like I try to take

512
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 1: the human element out of it. We just run the numbers.

513
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,360
Speaker 1: We left the pieces forward in May. And my big

514
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 1: thing about the Rams was, I felt like too much

515
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 1: is being made about the injuries to their offensive line

516
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,679
Speaker 1: that you know they'd be down arguably one of the

517
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 1: best left tackles and all football, and Whitworth and I

518
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 1: talked about it. I just didn't see no Bloom being

519
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 1: that terrible, that much of a step down. How many

520
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 1: times do you hear his name in that game chat.

521
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: You've only heard his name when people were saying how

522
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 1: Greaty was playing. And that's that's the dream there. It's like, Okay,

523
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 1: you're getting a little bit of a value bump here

524
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 1: because the public is perceiving that as a huge injury loss.

525
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 1: Where we saw it was on the other side with

526
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers they lost that was huge. We saw they

527
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,400
Speaker 1: kept they kept moving air and down on on that edge,

528
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 1: they kept moving von Miller over there. They just really

529
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,959
Speaker 1: abused that side against that Bucks team, and they had

530
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 1: to get four fumbles by cam Akers or whoever, I mean,

531
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 1: Cooper Cup had one. They just had to get all

532
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 1: those turnovers get back in the game of the Bucks

533
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: where this Rams team that was just a perfect matchup

534
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 1: for that Rams offense. We we talked about we needed

535
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: for them to win. We knew they're gonna have to

536
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: air it out. Stafford couldn't miss. So now we're coming

537
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 1: back with the Four Ninis team. What have they done.

538
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 1: They've been so impressive with their pass rush that quarterbacks

539
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 1: just can't get comfortable against them. That's like I know,

540
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 1: Chris talked about a Raybon on our show, like that's

541
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 1: why he loved the Four Nines where their front four,

542
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 1: and I'm with him, I love that front four. We

543
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 1: saw Fred Warner be that difference in that game. Like again,

544
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 1: their front four was incredible. Every play with that Green

545
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 1: b A team, he was there in the middle of

546
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 1: the field really shutting it down. With Stafford, he loves

547
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 1: these quick little throws to set up these long throws

548
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,640
Speaker 1: of Cooper cup or Odell. That's really where there's own

549
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 1: defense kind of shut you down. The Four Nights just

550
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,360
Speaker 1: play a zone where it's like no no long shots,

551
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,160
Speaker 1: no going downfield. You gotta take it real slow, one

552
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 1: at a time, go down field methodically. And we've seen

553
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 1: it twice this year. Stafford just couldn't adjust to it.

554
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: Like people keep talking about, well, what are they gonna

555
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 1: do if the Rams get up big on them? I

556
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 1: get up big on the four and I team, Me

557
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,199
Speaker 1: and you had lost a lot of money and we

558
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 1: what was the seventeen against the Rams? Four nine is

559
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,640
Speaker 1: where they were up seventeen to three at halftime we

560
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 1: blinked it was seventeen seventeen four and then all of

561
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 1: a sudden, the Jimmy G's driving down the field to

562
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 1: win the game for this four and Irons team. So I,

563
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 1: I of the data doesn't support uh, four straight road

564
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 1: wins for a team. Again, the four Niners win against

565
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:07,959
Speaker 1: the Rams on the road, then they just won their

566
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 1: last playoff game on the road. The game before that

567
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: was on the road. Like them to win four straight

568
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:15,439
Speaker 1: road games, I believe it's never happened before. I'll have

569
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 1: to check that, Labs. But off the top of my head,

570
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 1: I can't think of a team winning four straight road

571
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 1: games in my lifetime because it's very unique where they

572
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 1: played road games end of the season and the playoffs,

573
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 1: they've just been on the road. So um, as we

574
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 1: sit here right now, chat, I'm I'm right there with you, buddy,

575
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 1: Like all these professionals, me we're all over the four

576
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 1: nineers were on the three and a half. We have

577
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: our twenty one future which sorry again about the Titans

578
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 1: eight to one that didn't work, but we still have

579
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 1: twenty one on the four niners. And at this point

580
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 1: again we'll talk about that next show about hedging that.

581
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 1: That's that's just a great ticket to have in your

582
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 1: back pocket because you can take the three and a

583
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: half now, which is a key number, and you don't

584
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 1: have to take the money aline on the ram the

585
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 1: four niners if you don't want to. You can just

586
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 1: let that future ride of a twenty one money line

587
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 1: right now in the forty niners. So I'm I'm with you.

588
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: I'm scared about it, um that it's just sat there,

589
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 1: the three and a half because I'm like, yo, I

590
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 1: thought he'd be three by now. But I bet it.

591
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 1: That's my biggest bet right now at the weekend. Um,

592
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 1: I I bet a three and a half, Like chat.

593
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 1: I woke up expecting it Monday morning to be down

594
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 1: to three. It wasn't. Bet it again. Woke up again

595
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: this morning still three and a half. Bet it again. So, um,

596
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 1: we'll see about the injury news again. I'm not gonna

597
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 1: put a ton yet because I gotta wait on the

598
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 1: injury report. But Kit will look good like Kittle. Apparently

599
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: it's all good with the ankle. I know Jimmy didn't

600
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 1: do much in that game, which we didn't really talk

601
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 1: about much. Um. I know how bad you want to

602
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 1: shoot on Aaron Rodgers. But man, that's what I love

603
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 1: about the four nineers. It's like their offense could do

604
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 1: nothing for four quarters and then you just went to

605
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 1: lambow on one. Like. If that's not a team of destiny,

606
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't know what is. It's not destiny.

607
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 1: It's what we say every week about Kyle Shanahan. He's

608
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: just a really good coach. I don't think anybody coaching

609
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: football gets more excited or has more fun scheming for

610
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 1: specific talents on his team. And it doesn't matter if

611
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 1: that talent is Deebo Samuel, who you can argue is

612
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 1: the best all around football player in the game today,

613
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 1: or if it's a third string quarterback. He enjoys this

614
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 1: so much. It is so clear he doesn't ever think

615
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 1: of players being out or having diminished skill sets as

616
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: being something that has put upon him or is a challenge.

617
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: He's like, I'm gonna have fun figuring out what this is.

618
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: This is a fun puzzle to do, and it's so

619
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 1: it's surprising to me that in a game like this,

620
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 1: where the games have been so close all year and

621
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 1: the niners of one, so obviously people are gonna say

622
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 1: it's hard to beat a team three times in a row,

623
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 1: and the staff bear that out. Half point in a

624
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:52,959
Speaker 1: game that I think should be three points is all

625
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,719
Speaker 1: the world here, go ahead and correct me. From our

626
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 1: friends of Bett Labs, teams that are do and O

627
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 1: against teams they used already in the regular season, they

628
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 1: are fourteen and uh. They've won fourteen out of twenty

629
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 1: one games against said team in the playoffs, so so

630
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 1: that hits at a sixty six percent clip. Again, the

631
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 1: team that is two and oh against that team in

632
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 1: the regular season wins in the playoffs. So that's actually

633
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 1: one of the few stats that favors the forres trend wise,

634
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 1: which is like some teams just have teams numbers. That's

635
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 1: a really really nice sample. Again, out of twenty one matchups,

636
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 1: fourteen wins, seven losses. That's that's money. That's money maker

637
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 1: right there. So I like that, Simon Hunter. I love

638
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: that you're correcting me about that. That's fat again, Like

639
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:39,479
Speaker 1: that's what I love about the Action team. Like I

640
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 1: have no idea how to use bet labs. I can

641
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: this DM Travis and he'll just be like, do this,

642
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 1: do that, do that? That's sad and open it up

643
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 1: and it's like, and you love trends again. I'm not

644
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: the biggest trend better. They're just fun to look at

645
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 1: because it gives you comfort and makes you if you

646
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 1: already believe in one side, it's like, see see this trend.

647
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 1: This makes it sound better. But I found that one

648
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 1: very interesting where we all know straight wins Shanahan's had

649
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 1: against McVeigh. We've all seen that stat. I wanted to

650
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 1: fade it again. At the end of the regular season.

651
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: I was like, the Rams are a better team. They

652
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 1: know that if they beat the four Uninitis where they

653
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: knocked them out of the playoffs up seventeen and three

654
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 1: at halftime. They blew that game, the Rams. And I

655
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 1: am a big believer in you pay for your mistakes

656
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 1: in life, like you can get forgiveness, you can go

657
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 1: on with life. But I talked about that Bills game.

658
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: They're paying for their demons of what they did in

659
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 1: the regular season. They should have been at home against

660
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. They win that game every time, but they

661
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,719
Speaker 1: lost to the Jaguars. They dropped all those bullshit games.

662
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 1: They had to go on the road to play the Chiefs,

663
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 1: and that factored in, Like that was to me a

664
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: big deal if they were at home in the freezing

665
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 1: cold where Josh Allen just dominated that New England team,

666
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: Like I just see that as a big advantage of

667
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 1: a big, strong quarterback where it just didn't like them

668
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: going arrowhead that was their achilles heel, like that really

669
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: messed them up. And I'm looking at this Rams team.

670
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 1: They should have knocked the they should have knocked out

671
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 1: the four nine. And now the four are going on

672
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: this crazy run. Their defense is humming. It's just like again,

673
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 1: we'll we'll talk about the total, like I'm gonna go

674
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 1: towards the under. This is just a really really to

675
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 1: me two teams that just really scheme well against each other.

676
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: And I love the matchups for this four team on

677
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 1: all offense and defense. Like you talked about Debo, there's

678
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: just nothing like it. And that's another guy where I

679
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 1: need to know his health because I know his knee

680
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 1: got hit on that final play, that third and seven run.

681
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 1: He took a really nasty shot and then he was

682
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 1: apparently hurt but celebrating after the game. Um, that's such

683
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 1: a big deal. So I've seen a couple of books

684
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 1: online post the betting percentages right now. I've seen a

685
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 1: few books more sighted towards the Rams. I know the

686
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 1: pro is gonna come on the three and a half.

687
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 1: I just know that's gonna be a pro number. So

688
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 1: if if you do want to grab the three and

689
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 1: a half, I grab that now before it does. Get

690
00:33:52,040 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 1: the three. I make that time and says yea. So

691
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,399
Speaker 1: Simon says, get the three and a half. Let's talk

692
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 1: about the total was a forty six and a half.

693
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 1: It does feel like an under to me, like these

694
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: teams know each other so well, unless there is this,

695
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 1: unless there is sort of those variants moments like we

696
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 1: saw with the Chiefs and the Bills are like we

697
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 1: saw with the Rams and the Niners at the end

698
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 1: of the season, where those last three minutes are back

699
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 1: and forth, back and forth. This is a snot knocker game.

700
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 1: And like, let's not discount the Rams defense. Von Miller,

701
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 1: Aaron Donald Jalen Ramsey. Their plan lights out. This is

702
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:44,399
Speaker 1: gonna be a game that is predicated on great defense. Yeah,

703
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 1: people always bitch about us talking about key numbers, and

704
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 1: that Bucks game was. It was one of my favorite

705
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 1: things about that game was such a key number game

706
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 1: where the game landed on three. The total was seven

707
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 1: a half forty and a half forty eight depends when

708
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:01,319
Speaker 1: you got it. It was to twenty. The they had

709
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 1: the ball, the rams can't makers fumbled it. Obviously that

710
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 1: screwed up that total, but it was like we nailed

711
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: that number, We nailed the under like that was No

712
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 1: one has a system that can predict these kind of

713
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:12,839
Speaker 1: things that happened like that can't make or fumbles, So

714
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:15,280
Speaker 1: that's always a sweat buddy. When we bet these unders,

715
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 1: it's like one or two little flukey pays like that,

716
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 1: you're screwed. Like if those kind of things happen that

717
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 1: that's usually gonna be in So first, like when you

718
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 1: first look at this number, that screams take the other

719
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 1: like Dave, it's down to forty six and a half. Again,

720
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 1: forty seven is a very key number. The book knows

721
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 1: that they're doing. I can see a lot of over

722
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 1: money coming in on this number, So I'll wait, I'll

723
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 1: see if I can get it back above the forty seven.

724
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 1: But that's this is a good under. Like we have

725
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,359
Speaker 1: two teams, like Chad just talked about, they know each other.

726
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 1: Stafford's gonna have like Stafford is gonna have Like again,

727
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 1: he played incredible against that Bucks. He's gonna have to

728
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 1: have a Stafford game eventually, right, Like he's been unbelievable

729
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 1: and I've we've seen quarterbacks going these runs, but man,

730
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 1: he's he'd been in oble Like that throw to Cooper

731
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 1: Cup at the end of that game, that's legendary, Like

732
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: that is a legendary throw that man stepped up. There

733
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 1: was only one play to make and he made it

734
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:14,839
Speaker 1: on a blitz. It was incredible. So I just look

735
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 1: at this game not going as easy as it did

736
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 1: with the Bucks in the ramps, Like that was just

737
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: incredible matchup where McVeigh has had the books and we

738
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 1: saw it earlier the year they put up with thirty

739
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 1: one against the Bucks at home. It's just been different.

740
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 1: The four nineers. Damiko Ryan's has just schemed really well

741
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 1: for this defense. So I'm I feel like we're gonna

742
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,800
Speaker 1: be on an island taking this under because the public

743
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 1: is just gonna really pound this over. Um, maybe we'll

744
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 1: make our foxhole bet uh come Thursday. But I love

745
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: this under, but I just want to make sure it

746
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 1: gets back above forty seven. That's such again, such a

747
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 1: key number. Seven to twenty just alians a lot more

748
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 1: often than you believe. So if we can able, if

749
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 1: we can wait, like most people should just be waiting now, Um,

750
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: three and a half take that for the fourty niners.

751
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:00,120
Speaker 1: We talked about the seven for the Chiefs. That's you

752
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 1: can kind of wait and see where that goes. But

753
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 1: with this one, I'd wait. That's a key number. Forty

754
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 1: five and a half. Forty six not as a key

755
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:08,719
Speaker 1: number as you think it is. It's not until it

756
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 1: gets down to forty four forty three and a half

757
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 1: where we start talking key numbers again. So to me,

758
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 1: you're kind of a no man's land with this total.

759
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 1: If you like the under like I do, just wait.

760
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:23,520
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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. We're gonna wait on the chiefs minus

799
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 1: seven will review how the market is moving, We're going

800
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 1: to probably take the over. I forgot you were wishy

801
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:47,359
Speaker 1: washy on that. That's what I mean. I'm leaning towards

802
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:49,840
Speaker 1: you over, like my system says take the under. But

803
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:52,879
Speaker 1: I'm fading my system on the Chiefs and the over

804
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,920
Speaker 1: in that one. I'm just computers can't comprehend my homes.

805
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 1: It's the same thing with Brady back in the day.

806
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 1: It just it doesn't really computers owners saying great mess.

807
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 1: And then Simon says, take the niners three and a

808
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 1: half and let's wait on the forty six and a half.

809
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 1: Let's see how it moves. All right, let's do scooch Roulette.

810
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 1: When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief,

811
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:22,799
Speaker 1: Let's play scooch Roulette. Simon, you can go first. Last week,

812
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 1: I believe I one of the chiefs. Who did you have,

813
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 1: Chad you had? Or the Tennessee Titans? Going back to

814
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 1: my well, I love them, love the four nine ers.

815
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:35,240
Speaker 1: It's my again. I was thinking about towards the totals.

816
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 1: But as we sit here Tuesday, give me the three

817
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 1: and a half. We love that number. I'll make Chad

818
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 1: in the tough spot to pick the next one. It

819
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 1: is a tough spot because it's the only number that

820
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 1: I'm truly convinced of right now. Alright, I'm gonna take

821
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 1: the Chief's minus seven. Wow, That's all I can do.

822
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 1: I mean, it's the only one I feel remotely good about. Um,

823
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 1: it was seven and a half, I would take the Bengals,

824
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 1: but it is what it is, and I don't like

825
00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 1: the totals right now. All right, we will be back

826
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 1: on Thursday. We'll talk about sharp calls. We'll see how

827
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:05,719
Speaker 1: the market has moved some of these numbers, will update

828
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 1: any of our picks. We'll see if we come to

829
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:11,839
Speaker 1: a consensus on the totals. For Simon Hunter, I am

830
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 1: Chad Melman. For Matt Mitchell, producer extraordinaire. This has been

831
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 1: the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. Download US, rate US,

832
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 1: review US, subscribe from app a podcast from Spotify until Thursday.

833
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 1: Love You