WEBVTT - What a Looming Shutdown Means for Markets 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:06.680 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio. 0:00:06.840 --> 0:00:08.600 News, thirty six hours. 0:00:08.600 --> 0:00:11.320 How far out are we thirty six houssy about thirty 0:00:11.360 --> 0:00:11.879 six hours. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:13.520 Yes, not that I'm counting. 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:17.280 Not that you're counting. Meghan Scully heads up Bloomberg's coverage 0:00:17.280 --> 0:00:19.799 of Congress, and she says if the White House and 0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:23.239 lawmakers can't agree to a funding bill by midnight on Tuesday, 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:27.040 the US government will shut down. Ahead of a meeting 0:00:27.080 --> 0:00:29.920 at the White House on Monday, President Trump and congressional 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:33.440 leaders from both parties are staking out their positions. These 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:35.200 people are crazy, the Democrats. 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:37.279 So if it asked to shut down, it love. 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:39.840 We don't want to shut down the government. It's Trump 0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:42.800 who's doing it, so ask him. What you have is 0:00:42.880 --> 0:00:46.000 everybody trying to shift the blame, like who is going 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:49.720 to be the one responsible politically for a shutdown, which 0:00:49.760 --> 0:00:52.520 seems increasingly likely as the hours go by. 0:00:52.880 --> 0:00:56.080 Meghan says the sticking points and negotiations come down to 0:00:56.200 --> 0:00:58.960 a couple key issues for Democrats. 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:02.960 They have decided to centralize their message here on healthcare. 0:01:03.520 --> 0:01:08.080 Rising ACA premiums. That's the Obamacare premiums that were kept 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:12.120 at lower levels due to subsidies from the Biden administration. 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:17.039 They're due to expire on January first. For Republicans, they 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:21.119 are arguing that they want a so called clean stop 0:01:21.120 --> 0:01:23.440 gap spending bill. They just want to keep the government 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:26.200 funded until November twenty first, and they said that they 0:01:26.240 --> 0:01:29.520 will negotiate on these ACA premiums and other demands from 0:01:29.520 --> 0:01:32.560 Democrats after they pass this bill. 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:36.720 Government shutdowns have become more and more common, but Megan 0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:39.360 says this one, if it comes to pass, would be 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:43.280 very different. Aside from the usual fears of furloughs and 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:46.320 delayed economic data, the White House has called for using 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:49.920 a shutdown as a way to eliminate thousands of federal jobs, 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:52.560 which could have a big impact on the economy. 0:01:52.720 --> 0:01:55.120 In the last several years, we have seen markets largely 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:57.760 shrug off the effects of a government shutdown, and what 0:01:57.840 --> 0:02:02.040 makes this one potentially more durable then previous shutdowns is 0:02:02.600 --> 0:02:04.400 the threat of mass firings. 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:07.680 Last week, the White House asked government agencies for plans 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:11.079 to lay off, rather than furlough, many non essential workers 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:12.560 if the government shuts down. 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:16.200 If tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of US 0:02:16.320 --> 0:02:19.960 government workers get laid off as a result of this shutdown, 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:22.200 that means they do not get their back pay, they 0:02:22.200 --> 0:02:25.120 do not have jobs at the end of this that 0:02:25.240 --> 0:02:27.639 will have a longer term economic impact. 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:32.079 I'm David Gera, and this is the big take from 0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:35.280 Bloomberg News today on the show. As the US gets 0:02:35.320 --> 0:02:39.840 closer and closer to another government shutdown, what's up for negotiation, 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:43.239 what isn't, and why this shutdown could have a more 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:46.760 significant impact on markets in the economy than we're accustomed to. 0:02:52.040 --> 0:02:55.680 It's shutdown eve Eve, as Bloomberg's Megan Scully calls it. 0:02:56.080 --> 0:02:59.040 Democrats say they're not willing to budge on those Affordable 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:02.840 Care Act subsidies. I asked Megan to explain why. 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:06.680 So they affect millions of Americans, and it would come 0:03:06.720 --> 0:03:09.280 with a bill of about three hundred and fifty billion 0:03:09.360 --> 0:03:12.520 dollars to increase these subsidies into the new year. That's 0:03:12.560 --> 0:03:16.280 a pretty hefty price tag, although it is something that 0:03:16.320 --> 0:03:20.600 Democrats say is necessary both you know, financially, but also economically. 0:03:20.680 --> 0:03:24.520 If a family's health insurance payments go up double triple 0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:29.120 in the new year, that obviously has widespread economic effects. 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:31.520 For Democrats, they see this as a. 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:34.920 Winning argument heading into the twenty twenty six midterms when 0:03:34.960 --> 0:03:38.880 they're hoping to reclaim control of the House, the Senate 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:42.440 or both. And wrapped up in this broader healthcare debate is, 0:03:42.480 --> 0:03:45.120 of course, the Medicaid cuts that were part of the 0:03:45.240 --> 0:03:48.080 huge Trump tax bill that passed on the backs of 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:52.840 Republican only support earlier this year. They're also demanding that 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:54.960 these cuts get reversed. 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:55.920 I think that is. 0:03:56.040 --> 0:03:59.360 Very unlikely to happen, but they are making it part 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:00.920 of their broader messaging on this. 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:04.800 Given the fact that there are Republican voters who benefit 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:07.680 from these subsidies, who rely on these subsidies, given the 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:09.400 fact that this isn't just a blue state issue or 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:12.120 a red state issue. Are there Republicans who down the 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:14.760 line conceivably would be willing to negotiate around this. 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:18.559 Yes, absolutely, and Republicans have said that they are willing 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.880 to negotiate on this come you know, November, but let's 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:25.200 just keep the government open. Within the Republican ranks, you 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:27.960 certainly have some who would be opposed to this, particularly 0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:30.799 I'm thinking of fiscal conservatives like the House Freedom Caucus, 0:04:30.960 --> 0:04:33.600 who don't want to be spending this money. But what 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:37.320 Democrats are saying is this is their biggest point of leverage. 0:04:37.520 --> 0:04:39.000 Republicans need sixty. 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:42.400 Votes in the Senate to pass the stop gap spending bill, 0:04:42.880 --> 0:04:47.279 and for Democrats, they have the most sway now then 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:51.520 they would have on a standalone healthcare only bill, So 0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:53.680 they see this as the best chance to get most 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:54.480 of what they want. 0:04:54.960 --> 0:04:58.159 Where is President Trump on these negotiations. Is he in 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:00.520 line with Republicans in the House and Senate or does 0:05:00.560 --> 0:05:02.000 he have kind of a different perspective here? 0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:04.279 You know, last week he said, you know, if there's 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:06.200 a shutdown, there's a shutdown, it'll happen. 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:08.159 Well, this is all caused by the Democrats. 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:11.000 He was supposed to meet last week with the Democratic 0:05:11.080 --> 0:05:14.440 leaders of the House and Senate that got canceled at 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:17.559 the last minute. They are meeting today for the first time. 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:20.599 The Republican congressional leaders will also be at this meeting. 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:23.240 But we saw a little bit of a preview of 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:26.560 that this morning with Carolyn Levitt, the White House spokesperson, 0:05:27.040 --> 0:05:31.159 really digging into the President's message and Republican's message writ large, 0:05:31.200 --> 0:05:33.719 which is it's our way or the highway. There is 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:36.679 zero good reason for Democrats to vote against this clean 0:05:36.800 --> 0:05:40.480 continuing resolution. Either we passed this so called clean cr 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:43.720 or the government shuts down. Not expecting to see a 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:47.120 whole lot of wiggle room coming out of this meeting today. 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:49.800 Megan says her expectations for how all of this will 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:53.000 play out are based on years of reporting on pass 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:57.200 shutdowns and near shutdowns. They've become increasingly common over the 0:05:57.240 --> 0:05:58.160 last few decades. 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:02.200 There have been four fourteen shutdowns going back to nineteen 0:06:02.279 --> 0:06:06.080 eighty one, which is when sort of the current the 0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:08.320 modern era of shutdowns began. 0:06:08.720 --> 0:06:12.000 Before nineteen eighty one, all government employees still had to 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:14.840 report to work when there was a shutdown, so the 0:06:14.880 --> 0:06:19.120 disruption to government services was minimal. The biggest impact was 0:06:19.120 --> 0:06:21.440 on government workers who didn't get paid. 0:06:22.240 --> 0:06:26.000 The last shutdown we had was the twenty eighteen to 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:29.719 twenty nineteen shutdown, the thirty five days shutdown during Trump's 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:34.720 first administration, and the longest shutdown in US history. Since then, 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:38.320 we have certainly gotten to the brink of a shutdown 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:41.400 more times than I can count. Pretty much anytime there 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:44.600 has been a funding deadline, it is at the eleventh 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:47.800 hour that an agreement comes through. We saw that most 0:06:47.839 --> 0:06:51.480 recently in March, but we have not actually seen a 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:53.640 shutdown now in nearly seven years. 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:59.920 But this shutdown, if it happens, could look very different 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:03.600 from any of those fourteen previous shutdowns that's coming up. 0:07:13.120 --> 0:07:15.400 Last week, the White House sent a memo to federal 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:18.680 agencies ahead of this looming shutdown saying it would quote 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:22.640 use this opportunity to consider reduction in force, that it 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:25.800 would lay off employees in government programs that don't align 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:29.440 with President Trump's priorities. So I asked Bloomberg's Megan Scully, 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:31.600 what we know about the jobs that are potentially at 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:33.800 risk if the government does shut down. 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:38.040 So we don't know certainly exactly whose jobs are at risk. 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:41.240 They did say, you know, programs that were not specifically 0:07:41.280 --> 0:07:45.600 authorized and jobs within the government that do not support 0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:51.040 Trump's broader agenda, both domestically and internationally. This is extremely, 0:07:51.480 --> 0:07:56.600 extremely unusual for a shutdown. Typically, what happens is most 0:07:56.640 --> 0:08:02.240 federal employees get furloughed. Some deemed essential must report to 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:05.160 work without pay at the end of a shutdown. Thanks 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:07.240 to a twenty nineteen law that was passed during the 0:08:07.320 --> 0:08:11.400 last long shutdown that our employees must receive back pay. 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:15.440 We have never seen an administration use a shutdown as 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:18.280 an opportunity to carry out a mass firing of the 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:19.160 federal workforce. 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:23.200 Should we see that as the White House acting opportunistically 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:25.200 or some other way? In other words, the White House 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:26.880 could kind of do these layoffs in the way they 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:28.960 have during the first few months of this the president's 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:32.360 second term. Why is this the mechanism that they're thinking 0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:33.000 of using here. 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:36.880 Russ Vote, who is Trump's budget director, the chief of 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:39.520 the Office of Management and Budget within the White House 0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:42.680 and also sort of the architect of Project twenty twenty five, 0:08:42.760 --> 0:08:45.520 which has been sort of the guiding principle of many 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:48.600 of Trump's policies in his first term, is a firm 0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:51.800 believer in a strong executive and sees this as an 0:08:51.840 --> 0:08:57.040 opportunity for Trump to really exert executive authority. Government funding 0:08:57.160 --> 0:09:01.240 runs out on October first, then gives the president the 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:05.520 ability to make these mass firings that Congress did not 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:09.280 do its job via the power of the purse, thus 0:09:09.640 --> 0:09:12.920 giving Trump the ability to do these. Of course, Trump's 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:16.520 efforts to fire the federal workforce has been tied up 0:09:16.600 --> 0:09:17.240 in courts. 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:18.559 We've seen him win. 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:21.360 A lot of these arguments, a lot of these cases 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:23.960 in court. But this is sort of a new way 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:25.360 for him to go about this. 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:28.280 Thinking more about russ Vote's role here as the director 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:31.320 of the Office of Management Budget, there's this more muscular 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:35.920 approach to executive power. Certainly these layoffs potential layoffs are 0:09:36.040 --> 0:09:38.440 part of that. In the past, we've also relied on 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:41.040 OMB for detail about what's supposed to happen if there 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:43.199 is a shutdown, and I gather this time around, we're 0:09:43.240 --> 0:09:45.680 not getting a lot of clarity about the way that 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:47.600 OMB is thinking about contingency planning. 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:52.480 Yes, so typically by this point on shutdown eve eve, 0:09:52.840 --> 0:09:57.520 we would have agency by agency documentation of what will 0:09:57.559 --> 0:10:02.280 happen who is considered an essential employee and who is not. 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:06.120 Federal workers would start signing off on these shutdown plans, 0:10:06.559 --> 0:10:09.679 would be making their plans for when they leave work 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:12.000 tomorrow if the shutdown does. 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:13.520 In fact go into effect. 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:18.200 It certainly feels like this is very late to the game, 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:22.520 especially because under law, federal employees who are non essential 0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:25.760 need to start signing off on paperwork saying they will 0:10:25.800 --> 0:10:27.480 not be working during the shutdown. 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:30.560 Is there a risk that this government might not be 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:33.440 ready to shut down by this deadline if they're not 0:10:33.480 --> 0:10:35.240 where they should be in terms of preparations. 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:37.640 For one, they don't really have a choice thanks to 0:10:37.880 --> 0:10:41.080 the Anti Deficiency Act. When the shutdown comes, the government 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:44.839 is shut down. Aside from essential personnel, we already know 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:48.160 sort of the broad contours of who are the essential workers. 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:52.120 Active duty military is considered essential workers. Emergency workers like 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:57.560 FEMA as well as air traffic controllers all considered emergency employees, 0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:00.920 So you know, that's pretty much set. There is some 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:04.120 concern though, that this will certainly be more disruptive and 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:09.240 more chaotic because of the absence of planning and communication 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:12.920 to the federal workforce. So this has rippling effects across 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:15.640 the country. People not knowing whether they need to report 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:20.200 to work or not on Wednesday certainly is disruptive and 0:11:20.360 --> 0:11:23.719 just kind of adds to the chaos of an already 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:24.760 turbulent event. 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:30.040 In March, the country faced another funding deadline. Senate Minority 0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:32.800 Leader Chuck Schumer warned that a shutdown would allow the 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:37.280 administration to quote destroy vital government services at a significantly 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:40.880 faster rate than they can right now. He ultimately decided 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:43.400 to vote to fund the government to avoid that scenario, 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.040 and he faced a lot of blowback for that decision 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:49.760 from progressives within the Democratic Party. This time, Megan says, 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:51.800 he's taking a very different. 0:11:51.480 --> 0:11:54.199 Approach going back to March. 0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:57.600 The last time we were at this funding stalemate, Schumer 0:11:57.640 --> 0:12:00.640 at the last minute decided that Trump, who was only 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:03.600 two months into his second term at that point, was 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:07.559 too powerful to risk it politically for the party, and 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:11.320 so a minority of Democrats in the US Senate voted 0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:17.319 with Schumer to avert a shutdown. That immediately prompted blowback 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:20.880 from progressives within the party who saw this as Senate 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:25.120 Democrats really just acceding to Trump and to Republicans. Schumer 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:28.280 personally had his own book coming out that same week 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:30.760 and he had to cancel his book tour due to 0:12:31.320 --> 0:12:35.240 the tremendous backlash he was receiving. So I think it's 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:38.040 fair to say he learned his lesson that time around. 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:41.920 Should also note that Trump's approval ratings have been sort 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:45.160 of on a decline in the intervening six months, giving 0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:48.800 Schumer more ability to really risk it here. And we 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:52.599 are also inching closer to the twenty twenty six midterms. 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:56.760 Democrats are seeing this more as an opportunity to stand 0:12:56.880 --> 0:13:01.040 up to the Trump administration and politically for them. That 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:04.400 is more of a net positive than it was six 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:04.960 months ago. 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:07.840 I'm very curious sort of what you see as potential 0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:10.520 off ramps here. So there is this meeting on Monday 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:13.360 at the White House among congressional leadership and the President, 0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:16.120 with just hours to go here till funding runs out. 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:18.520 How do you see this playing out or what are 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:20.080 the ways in which it could play out in the 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:21.160 next few hours. 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:26.199 I think that the most likely scenario here is that 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:29.400 the government shuts down at twelve oh one am on 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:34.640 October first. There is, I would say, a potential for 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:38.600 them to come out of this meeting and agree to 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:42.840 a very short stop gap spending bill, something in the 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:46.040 order of a week or two, and say, you know, 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:49.000 we will vote in the Senate today to keep the 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:52.880 government open until October seventh or October tenth, to avert 0:13:53.000 --> 0:13:57.600 a shutdown this week, but Democrat saying we are not 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:00.560 going to agree to this longer seven weeks gap that 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:05.040 Republicans have demanded. If that were to happen, the Senate 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:08.280 could vote on that tonight and the House, which it's 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:11.840 important to note, are out of town until October seventh. 0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:15.880 They could then vote by unanimous consent sort of in 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:19.640 absentia to keep the government open, and has provided nobody 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:22.960 objects to that. Then that could certainly be the band 0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:27.119 aid for the next week or so, especially as storms 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:30.880 threaten the southeast coast right now. That is certainly a 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:34.560 possibility that we should not discount, but part of his 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:38.720 intentions being what they are at this moment, I am 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:39.640 not banking on that. 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:40.920 Megan. 0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:43.840 How do you think about the potential consequences of all 0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:47.360 of this too, markets and the economy, and looking at 0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:49.760 those past hunt ends, we've talked about what impact have 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:52.360 they had and when does it really become an issue 0:14:52.400 --> 0:14:54.800 for investors and for the US economy broadly. 0:14:55.480 --> 0:15:01.080 So a shutdown is not the market rattling catas that say, 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:05.160 a debt ceiling breach would bring about, but it certainly 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:07.520 is disruptive, at least in. 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:08.240 The short term. 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.160 In the last several years, we have seen markets largely 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.840 shrug off the effects of a government shutdown, and we 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:16.840 have seen that in the run up to this one. 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:20.840 What we could see sort of in the immediate aftermath 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:24.840 of a shutdown is some short term market consequences and 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:27.520 certainly some short term economic consequences. 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:30.960 For example, if there is a government shutdown, the jobs 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:33.680 report won't come out on Friday when it's scheduled too. 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:37.840 That certainly is a huge indicator of where the economy 0:15:37.960 --> 0:15:40.920 is and where it's going, and not having that then 0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:44.840 has effects on what decisions people make in the short term, 0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:49.280 on their finances and on their investments. Typically, though, in 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:53.760 a government shutdown, any economic effect or market effect is 0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:57.120 short lived, even during the thirty five day shutdown of 0:15:57.440 --> 0:15:59.200 twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen. 0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:03.800 Again, that's for the typical government shutdown. But like we've 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:06.960 been saying, this time could be different if the White 0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:09.440 House follows through on its plan to use the government 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:12.440 shutdown as a way to further reduce the federal workforce. 0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:15.800 If those workers lose their jobs instead of merely being 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:19.760 furloughed with back pay, the economic consequences of this government 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:27.200 shutdown could have a much bigger impact. This is the 0:16:27.200 --> 0:16:29.840 Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. To get 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:32.160 more from The Big Take and unlimited access to all 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:35.760 of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg dot Com 0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:39.480 Slash Podcast offer. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.