1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 2: Okay, I want to frame this for you because Stuart 7 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:33,559 Speaker 2: Kaiser is a hugely qualified to do this with us. 8 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 2: We're thrilled that he's with us this morning with City Group. 9 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,239 Speaker 2: A correction on the Dow Dow forty six it was 10 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 2: forty eight thousand, whatever. A correction right now from the 11 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 2: peak is dowt forty three thousand. A bear market gets 12 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 2: us back to the April angst. It's Dow thirty nine thousand. 13 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 2: Have we lost perspective over what a correction in a 14 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 2: bear market are That's. 15 00:00:57,280 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 3: A good question. 16 00:00:57,720 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 4: I mean there's a lot of as you mentioned, angst 17 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 4: in the market. He's only down three three and change. 18 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 4: You know, Dallas pulled back a little bit more so. 19 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 3: Look, I think you. 20 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 4: Know, sentiment was so very bullish that even what is 21 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 4: relative as a relatively modest pulled back so far in 22 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 4: the context of what's happened for the last couple of years, 23 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 4: you know, definitely as people stressed out, and to your point, 24 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:16,960 Speaker 4: you know, I think that the calendar has a lot 25 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 4: to do with this as well, though you know, we're 26 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 4: getting into your end. It has been a very difficult year. 27 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 4: I think portfolio managers don't want to play hero ball 28 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 4: here into your end, so you have to take it 29 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 4: in the context a very positive sentiment, kind of a 30 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 4: cautious investor base and now a solid pullback. 31 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 3: But I wouldn't really call it a draw down at 32 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 3: this point. 33 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 5: So we've got a VIX. I mean, Tom Keane keeps 34 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 5: us on our toes here as it relates to VIS 35 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 5: twenty three spot four. It feels a little angsty to me. 36 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 5: I mean, but yet the market is only three percent 37 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 5: off its Hi, this is this market has been rippen. 38 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:46,479 Speaker 3: My kids don't know any different. Yeah, and I agree. 39 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 4: I think the Vicks, you know, goingto the weekend was 40 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 4: probably at least a point higher than we would have 41 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 4: expected in this morning. 42 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 3: It probably will be as well. 43 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 4: Again, I think that's some scar tissue and muscle memory 44 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 4: for what happened last August and also what happened, you know, 45 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 4: back in April. There's also a lot of retail flows, 46 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 4: you know, going into the vas so that may be 47 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 4: impacting it. But honestly, I think a lot of this 48 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 4: is its calendar year timing and what we went through 49 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 4: earlier in the year, Right, if you fought your way 50 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 4: back from April and not going to let yourself mess 51 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 4: it up going into your end. 52 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:14,360 Speaker 3: So I would expect investors to be able to generate 53 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 3: into the ard. 54 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:18,799 Speaker 2: When does that historically? And like if everybody goes it's 55 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 2: November fifteenth, the sun's setting in godly early, it's like 56 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 2: the Arctic out there in New York. Okay, Fine, we 57 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 2: get through this over days or weeks, and then does 58 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 2: a fear of missing out bid come in? You know? 59 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 4: I think it would typically resolve as in a few days, 60 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 4: I think, But then you have an event calendar in 61 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 4: front of you that you still need to get through, right, 62 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,679 Speaker 4: So the market stabilizes a bit, and then jeez, I 63 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 4: now I have Walmart, Now I have a video, Now 64 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 4: I have payrolls, Now I have FMC. So you're just 65 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 4: in a situation here. I think the market would like 66 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:51,959 Speaker 4: to calm down, but we've just got a plethora of 67 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 4: data coming we have to respond to. 68 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:55,239 Speaker 2: I know you're not out of speaking terms with Andrew 69 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:59,119 Speaker 2: hollen Horse, but basically he and his shop are running blind, right, 70 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 2: they don't have any economic data. Is the market running 71 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 2: blind because they don't have any economic data? Yeah? 72 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 4: I do think we're a little bit underinformed, you know, 73 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 4: relative to where we would be. The FED the same, 74 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:11,960 Speaker 4: I mean, the in the middle of that day yesterday, Yeah, 75 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:13,679 Speaker 4: I mean, you know, the Fed admitted they don't have 76 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 4: a lot of data. That uncertainty is kind of played 77 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 4: into their policy stand So one hundred percent, you know, 78 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 4: we're sort of grasping your straws. 79 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 3: A little bit. 80 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:22,119 Speaker 4: We'll get a little bit of data this week. It's 81 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 4: going to take a week or two to catch up 82 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 4: on the data, and inflation in particular is going to 83 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 4: be very data. So yes, there's definitely also someone certainty 84 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 4: out there because we just don't know. And then because 85 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 4: of that, you don't know how to react to the 86 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 4: data when it comes in. If I get a week 87 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 4: payrolls report, like what does exactly that mean? So all 88 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 4: of that I think is just created this this sort 89 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 4: of position of stress and angst on the market that 90 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 4: we're just you know, that's why you're seeing that in 91 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 4: the VIX you're seeing that in risk pricing, and you're 92 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 4: hearing that from investors when. 93 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 3: We talk to them. 94 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 5: And then we're going to get Nvidia after the close tomorrow, 95 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 5: and arguably that's one of the most important stocks to 96 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 5: report for Corporate American, for the marketplace here. I mean, 97 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 5: you sense that clients want to get ahead of that 98 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 5: wait for it, what are you hearing SARTs a position? 99 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 3: Honestly, it feels more risk, more risk than. 100 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 4: Reward going into the Nvidia print. I mean, they just 101 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 4: did a GtC down in DC. You know, less than 102 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 4: a month ago. You've had a tremendous amount of useful 103 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 4: out on the stock from a price performance perspective. The 104 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 4: bar is sort of low because it's basically flat ish, 105 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 4: you know, since his last earnings report, but the expectations 106 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:20,480 Speaker 4: on earnings and spending are extremely high. And look, you know, 107 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:22,160 Speaker 4: I would never talk down the ports of the video, 108 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 4: but I think Walmart, frankly is almost equally important this week. 109 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:27,040 Speaker 2: So yeah, look, people. 110 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 4: Are bullsh in video, they're long in video, and I 111 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 4: do think there's a little more risk than the risk 112 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 4: reward from that stock this week. 113 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 2: Taking the optimismer and folks across the nation. Stuart Kaiser 114 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:37,679 Speaker 2: City Group out of US Secuity trading with us this morning. 115 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 2: Good morning on all of our audio appilates and the 116 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 2: visual on YouTube. Thank you so much for your attention. 117 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 2: Subscribe at Bloomberg Podcasts out on YouTube, Paul, just to 118 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:53,839 Speaker 2: get the conversation moving forward. The looking forward view on 119 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 2: video with their growth is forty one times earnings. Walmart, 120 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:03,719 Speaker 2: which is a little different growthiness, has a looking forward 121 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 2: of forty times. 122 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 3: Don't you point that out all the time. 123 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 2: I just I know, you know growing. How do you 124 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 2: grow your way into Walmart at a forty forty multiple? 125 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 2: I still get it. 126 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:14,839 Speaker 3: I mean, people just want to own. 127 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:18,600 Speaker 5: I mean, if they view Walmart as just it's just America, 128 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 5: it's the consumer, it's GDP, it's I don't but that boy, 129 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 5: forty times multiple is. 130 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 2: Crazy, and I agree. 131 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,040 Speaker 4: I think for a video, you're paying for the forward growth. 132 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 4: So I'll look for Walmart, you're almost paying for execution. 133 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 4: Like these guys, you should have been masters at executing 134 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 4: their supply chain, their inventory management. You now have you 135 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:39,480 Speaker 4: know what, We're previously middle income spenders kind of trading 136 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 4: down into Walmart stores. So that's why Walmart's so important 137 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 4: this week because they are so good at execution. They 138 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 4: are such a good lens into the broad based US 139 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 4: consumer that if they ech echo what we've heard from 140 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 4: from home Depot, from Costco, from Chipotle, from a Riley automobive. 141 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 4: You know, if they echo that, I don't think the 142 00:05:57,320 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 4: market's going to take it well. Of all the new 143 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 4: information we've gotten in the last month, to me, the 144 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 4: weaker consumer earnings is probably the most, the newest, and 145 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:05,719 Speaker 4: the most concerning of all that information. 146 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 2: What's the straddle? Uh train your pa Eli, what's the 147 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 2: real Stewart Kaiser World? We like SPX twenty one November 148 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 2: straddles translate, so you. 149 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 4: Basically buy the put and the call on the S 150 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 4: and P five hundred, and you're just assuming the market 151 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 4: is going to move more than that straddle is priced at. 152 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 4: So coming into the week that break even was one 153 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 4: point eight percent, and you think. 154 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 2: It's going to either break out up or break out down? 155 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 2: Do you care which way? 156 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 4: If you own the straddle, you don't. For me, personally, 157 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 4: I'd rather break out to the upside. 158 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 3: But if you own this straddle, you don't. 159 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,160 Speaker 2: This is like how was Landman last day. 160 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 3: Awesome, awesome. I feel like I'm in an episode of billions. 161 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 5: Of Stewart Kaiser. You know what's interesting? Straddle landman, they 162 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 5: filmed this one. 163 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 2: It was like. 164 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:56,720 Speaker 3: I was just a dallast. I'm all on the land. 165 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 2: Okay, at least did you watch made Leston. 166 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 3: No, I don't have paramount. 167 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:08,479 Speaker 5: Plus two months for ninety nine, SENI okay, But what. 168 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 2: You do is your profession, it's city group. Is there 169 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 2: a derivatives appetite right now to participate in a market 170 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 2: or is everybody basically shut down to get the January fifteenth? 171 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 3: There's definitely a derivatives appetite. 172 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 4: Number One, we're seeing people hedge the Mag seven stocks directly, 173 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 4: so everybody knows what the investors own. 174 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 3: They own Max seven. That's getting head. 175 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 2: How do you head that? 176 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 4: Look to you're buying basically some variety of puts on 177 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 4: the Mag seven stocks, and you put some bells and 178 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 4: whistles on it, maybe to make it cheaper, but big 179 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 4: big picture, you're owning price six month puts across the 180 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 4: Mag seven stocks. To the upside, look, people are using 181 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 4: call options to get a little bit of leverage into 182 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 4: your end because to my point, earlier. 183 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 3: You don't want to mess this up, and. 184 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 4: An option is a risk adjusted way to give you 185 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 4: some exposure into the end of the year without kind 186 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 4: of risking a major pullback. So we are seeing that 187 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 4: this is. 188 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 2: Brilliant, folks, and this is a window into the real 189 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 2: Stewart Kaiser, Jail doesn't give it, damn. They just want 190 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 2: to know when to buy Nvidia. It is basically the 191 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 2: last twenty four months retail right, Stuart Kaiser wrong? 192 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 4: I mean, is that really what we're talking about. Definitely 193 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 4: wisdom of the crowd. I mean, the crowd is definitely 194 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 4: smarter than I am. What I would say on retail, though, 195 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 4: is the last two to three weeks they've pulled back significantly. Okay, 196 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 4: their share of trading volumes was about sixteen percent at 197 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 4: the end of October, it's down close to eleven. So 198 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 4: we have seen retail, for one reason or the other, 199 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 4: kind of pullback from the markets. And that is A 200 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 4: that's been negative for the markets because you're not getting 201 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 4: that buy flow, but B it's also caught the attention 202 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 4: of institutional investors who are wondering who that next buyer is. 203 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 4: So look, retail has been right to own the market, 204 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:41,199 Speaker 4: and if you believe they're smarter than we are, then 205 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 4: then pulling back should be a warning sign for you. 206 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 2: Sake a poll, Lisa Paul, do you believe retail smarter 207 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 2: than city group? Oh? Totally yeah. Do you want to 208 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:51,439 Speaker 2: see here? 209 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:53,559 Speaker 3: I want to see her take it bodcast. 210 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 5: So talk to us about liquidity, steward it. You know, 211 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 5: I come in with a big order into your desk, 212 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:01,200 Speaker 5: Can you guys get it done for me? 213 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 2: Yeah? 214 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, lookud, it is good. I mean, honestly, liquidity is good. 215 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 4: Markets are markets are functioning great. As I mentioned, You've 216 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 4: had a little bit of pull back and retail activity, 217 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 4: but volume of shares traded, value of shares traded has 218 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 4: been above trend, you know, for most of the past 219 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 4: couple of weeks. 220 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 3: So we're not having any trouble. 221 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 4: With that that kind of execution issue at all, and 222 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 4: I wouldn't expect to. I mean, the markets are deep, 223 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 4: the markets are liquid, and you know, people are again 224 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 4: it's been a tough year. You're not you're not surprising 225 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:28,959 Speaker 4: anybody right now, right, Yeah, you're not going to sneak 226 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 4: up us somebody with bad news, Like everybody is more. 227 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 4: It's like a deer in the headlights more than anything. 228 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 4: It's it's not people are going to get surprised right now. 229 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 3: Outside of the some of the big tech names. 230 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 5: What are the sectors that you guys are leaning into 231 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 5: these days, maybe maybe you know starting into twenty twenty 232 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:44,559 Speaker 5: six outlooks and things. 233 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 3: What are your analysts at cities saying these days on 234 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:47,680 Speaker 3: our desk? 235 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 4: Excuse me, we've been pretty bullsh healthcare for the last 236 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 4: kind of four weeks or so going into your end. 237 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,439 Speaker 4: You had earning season, you had some nice some catalyst 238 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 4: from Obesity Week and stuff like that. So Vashaba back 239 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 4: in our team has been pushing by no, it is 240 00:09:58,520 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 4: kind of a funny year for a week, isn't it. 241 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 4: So we've been pushing some upside in healthcare. You've had 242 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 4: m and announcement in the biotech space, so that does 243 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 4: seem like a little bit of a catch up trade. 244 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 4: There are a lot of positions that look quote unquote 245 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 4: a little bit off sides right now. But again, to me, 246 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 4: that's an early twenty twenty six trade because I can't 247 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 4: walk into a portfolio manager's office and say, hey, why 248 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 4: don't you take all this risk in November? 249 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 3: It just makes no sense for them. 250 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 4: So there's a lot of opportunity there, but I think 251 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 4: people are going to be slow to. 252 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 3: Adopt that until we get around the turn of the calendar, 253 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 3: are people. 254 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 5: I mean, again, we had such a bad April, such 255 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:31,079 Speaker 5: a bad beginning of the year, but boy, we've more 256 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 5: than made up for that. Are there pms out there 257 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 5: that are trying to chase performance for. 258 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:37,839 Speaker 3: These last few weeks of the year. Do you feel 259 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 3: do you see orders coming into your desk saying wall 260 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:41,320 Speaker 3: that's a weird trade? 261 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 2: You know? 262 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 4: I think that the performance chasing is going to be 263 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 4: a little bit limited to what people already on. Honestly, 264 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 4: you look there, it's definitely some performance chasing coming off 265 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 4: the bottom. I think foreign and European investors in particular, 266 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 4: we're chasing the market higher over the summer. 267 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 3: Because they were just not invested in AI. 268 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 4: But again, I think the chase you're going to see 269 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 4: into year end is going to be winners tech large 270 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 4: cap growth, Like you know, right right down the middle. 271 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 2: How does four oh one K investment play into this? 272 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 2: It's like a wall of money hit City Group April 273 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 2: seventh of next year. 274 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, if you look at like seasonal patterns. 275 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 4: The week of tax Day is usually you know, one 276 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 4: of the biggest, one of the biggest weeks of the year. 277 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 4: That the week that straddles tax Day and yeah, butth 278 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 4: bonus season obviously, Yeah, some money does hit, does hit 279 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 4: the four to one case at that time, so there 280 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 4: is some seasonality there. But you know, retail is different now, right, 281 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 4: Retail is not just the four to one k investor. 282 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 4: Retail is now you know, people on their basement, you know, Driggy, 283 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,680 Speaker 4: mountain dew. And it's also it's also registered investment advisors 284 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 4: who aggregated up a billion in assets and who actually 285 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 4: behave more like institutions. 286 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 2: Stuart, thank you so much. Brilliant, really really important start 287 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 2: of the morning. Stuart Kaiser with his say this year, Tom, Yeah, 288 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 2: it's because of Kaiser. I mean, you know, stay with us. 289 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 290 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 291 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 292 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 293 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 1: watch us Live on YouTube. 294 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 2: This is a timely conversation at your end. Here with 295 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:21,440 Speaker 2: all that's going on, maybe to look at sixty thousand 296 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 2: feet as her classic boat book on Vladimir Putin, Angela 297 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 2: Stent joins a senior fellow the American Enterprise Institute. Angela. 298 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 2: Mister Trump is older, and there's lots of talk about 299 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 2: his health, about the future and that. Don't want to 300 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 2: get into that this morning. Mister Putin is a little 301 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 2: bit younger. How do you perceive the transfer of power 302 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 2: after Putin? Have you thought that through? 303 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 6: I mean, we've been speculating about this for a long time. 304 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 6: It's very hard to say. He's been very careful not 305 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 6: to bla duc, not to name a successor. Every time 306 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 6: a younger person's name comes up and people say, wow, 307 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 6: this person could maybe succeed Putin, then that kind of 308 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 6: name disappears. They don't disappear. So we don't know whether 309 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 6: there's a succession plan, and if there isn't a special plan, 310 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:20,199 Speaker 6: then it could get quite nasty. 311 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 2: Casey Michael over Political Paul five scenarios for Russia after 312 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 2: Putin's next. 313 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 3: Term, Well, I mean, I don't know. 314 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 2: Maybe there's six or seven. 315 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 3: Exactly under standard. 316 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 5: Where do you believe President Trump is in his engagement 317 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 5: with what's happening in Ukraine here, he's Initially it looked 318 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 5: like he was pretty positive that he would be able 319 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 5: to affect some change here and get some peace here. 320 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 3: But I'm not sure about it right now. Where do 321 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 3: you think he is? 322 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 2: So? 323 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 6: I think he's increasingly frustrated by the fact that Putin, 324 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:57,959 Speaker 6: in fact, is not interested in serious negotiations. Every time 325 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 6: they have a conversation, as President Trump said, it's a 326 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 6: great conversation, and then the Russians bomb more civilian targets 327 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,719 Speaker 6: in Ukraine. They're bombing their energy infrastructure. 328 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:09,079 Speaker 3: They're trying to make sure. 329 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 6: Ukrainians don't have any heat or light in the upcoming winter. 330 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 6: So I think he's realized that, you know, Putin is 331 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,280 Speaker 6: not willing to really engage with him. I think Secretary 332 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 6: Rubios realized that too, and that's why he apparently dissuaded 333 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 6: the President from trying to meet Putin in Budapest. So 334 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 6: really everything that a stand still now. The war is 335 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 6: grinding on, but we're no nearer a peace settlement than 336 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 6: we were in January of this year. 337 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 2: Well, the synthesis at the American Enterprise Institute then, just 338 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 2: as a general statement, doctor stent. Is American money sent 339 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 2: to Ukraine? Is that money well spent right now? 340 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 6: Well, at the moment, there isn't much American money going 341 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 6: to Ukraine right there is no appropriation for next year. 342 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 6: The money that was sent was still a whole over 343 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 6: from the Biden administration. 344 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 3: So it's the. 345 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 6: Europeans who are buying American weapons now and then sending 346 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 6: them to Ukraine. 347 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 3: Was it well spent? 348 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 2: Well? 349 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 6: It's enabled the Ukrainians to push back so far, but 350 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 6: they're going to need a lot more going into next 351 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,880 Speaker 6: year to continue to push. 352 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 2: Back the Russians. 353 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 5: Sanctions. We've been hearing that sanctions for years. Is there 354 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 5: any effectiveness that we can measure on sanctions? Is there 355 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 5: any redline that maybe the Western nations could cross to 356 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 5: really impose pain upon Putin and the economy. 357 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:41,239 Speaker 6: So I think these new sanctions that the US announced 358 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:44,000 Speaker 6: a couple of weeks ago on the two major oil 359 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 6: companies in Russia, Rosneft and Luke Oil, if they are 360 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 6: properly enforced, if we go after the shadow fleet that's 361 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 6: transporting a lot of the Russian oil to third countries 362 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 6: and then re exporting it to India, to China, places 363 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 6: like that, if those are properly enforced them, I think 364 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 6: it would have an impact. So far, none of the 365 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 6: sanctions have been really rigorously enforced, so that's really what 366 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 6: we have to launch for. 367 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, here at your end, Angelas Stent, all of us 368 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 2: at Team Surveillance. All we can ask is for the 369 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 2: next literary effort by Angela's Stent. Your book was my 370 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 2: book of the year a few years ago with all 371 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 2: the horror of Ukraine, and we're just looking for a 372 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 2: brave new effort from you as you can. Angelus Stent 373 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 2: a wonderful thanksgiving to you and mister Stent as well. 374 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 2: She's at the American Enterprise Institute. Stay with us. More 375 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 2: from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 376 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 377 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 378 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 379 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 380 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty great. 381 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 2: Conversations Today, let's keepeck going Randy Trimmer with this vice 382 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:13,640 Speaker 2: Chair Chief Investment at Churchill Asset, Your world of Alternatives, 383 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 2: private equity, private credit. Do you need retail investment? Aren't 384 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:22,239 Speaker 2: institutions just throwing gobs of money at people like you? 385 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 7: Well, first of all, again, great to be on. I 386 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 7: was in the Middle East last time. I think we 387 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 7: called in and a friend of mine said, and you 388 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 7: got your Your listenership is amazing, he said, I heard 389 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 7: you guys on Bloomberry was great. And by the way, 390 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 7: I was in the shower and I was listening to you. 391 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 7: So you've got people all over listening to people listen 392 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:40,119 Speaker 7: to us in the show shower, So just keep that 393 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 7: in mind. There's too much information. 394 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:43,359 Speaker 2: Side. 395 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 5: I was in the bathroom when I heard you guys talk, 396 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:45,959 Speaker 5: and that's usually what I get. 397 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, there you got. 398 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 7: So we were just at our annual investor meeting. We 399 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:53,439 Speaker 7: had two hundred investors of all stripes and sizes, institutional wealth. 400 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 7: And what's interesting is now institutional investors have kind of 401 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 7: cleared the way for the health sector because what they've 402 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,400 Speaker 7: done is a lot of the hard heavy lifting. 403 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 3: What's this asset class all about? 404 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:05,840 Speaker 2: How does it work? 405 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 7: And with that information out there, now retail investors saying 406 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 7: this looks interesting, how do I get involved? 407 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 2: Right? 408 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 7: And they have to understand because it's really an education 409 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 7: like what's the difference between private credit and public credit? 410 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 7: What's the difference in private equity and public equity? So 411 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 7: our job, you know, the alpha in private capital right 412 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 7: now is one of my friends says, is education right 413 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 7: performances beta. Make sure you don't, you know, screw that up, 414 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,199 Speaker 7: but really make sure that you train people as to 415 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 7: what are the holes that we could fall into? Is 416 00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 7: private credit a bubble right now? Is timing an issue 417 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,640 Speaker 7: for private credits? Should I be jumping in with everybody 418 00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:45,400 Speaker 7: else seemingly going into the asset class? 419 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:47,439 Speaker 5: How about some of the concerns we've had in the 420 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:51,879 Speaker 5: marketplace about some of these private credit providers Try Color 421 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 5: and some others. I'm sure that's popped up in your conversations. 422 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 5: How do you kind of frame the risk out there 423 00:18:57,600 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 5: and some of the private credit business, So you know, 424 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 5: both way the lead left, which you guys sponsor, thank 425 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 5: you very much, and our podcasts. 426 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 7: I think everybody that we talk to understands that Trycolor 427 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 7: and First Brands were really bank deals, they weren't private 428 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 7: credit deals. 429 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 2: You know, it's an important, real distinction, huge distinction. 430 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 7: So I've written about it you know, the bank loan 431 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 7: market is really a moving market, as my CEO likes 432 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 7: to say, and we're a storage market. And so if 433 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:33,400 Speaker 7: you are think about the saying, nobody washes a rental car, right, 434 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 7: and I've enhanced that it's no one details a rental car. 435 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:39,920 Speaker 7: If you're just passing that loan along to your investors, yeah, 436 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 7: you got to make sure if you're syndicating that it's 437 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 7: good because otherwise they're not going to come back to you, right. 438 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:47,160 Speaker 7: But if you're holding it, it's a whole different ballgame. 439 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,199 Speaker 7: You're going to pay attention to the little dings on 440 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 7: that car. You're going to make sure that you can 441 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,120 Speaker 7: and you want to detail it because it's your car. 442 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 5: So where what are your clients in a private equity side, 443 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 5: What are they saying about. 444 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 3: Their deal pipeline? Are they getting need access to your 445 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 3: credit pools? 446 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 7: Yeah, so good news on private equity right now. And 447 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,240 Speaker 7: we had some panelists at our investor meeting who were 448 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:10,440 Speaker 7: top private equity investors and they're like, you know what, 449 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 7: M and A is getting better? 450 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 2: Why is that? 451 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:16,120 Speaker 7: Because rates are coming down, so financing is cheaper, so 452 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:20,120 Speaker 7: it's more available, easier to you know, get deals done, 453 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 7: and for sectors that have grown through all this turmoil 454 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 7: and headline risk and tariffs and rates and all the 455 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 7: rest of it, those deals are getting better multiples than 456 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 7: they were getting in twenty nineteen because they've been through 457 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 7: so much that the investors say, you know what, this 458 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 7: is weatherproof. 459 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 2: Randas Schrumer with this vice chair Tricial Asset Management. So 460 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,400 Speaker 2: I want to go to like a general partner limited 461 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 2: partner structure. Yeah, somebody's got an IRA. You're talking to 462 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 2: Fidelity about it, or you know, named the Schwab whatever 463 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 2: you're talking about bringing these investments into people's retirement plans 464 00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,439 Speaker 2: in whatever form and way. How do you do a 465 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 2: choice an x number of bundled private credit opportunities between 466 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 2: retail and institutional. I mean, come on, ye, institutional is 467 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 2: going to get the best. 468 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 3: Yeah. 469 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 7: So, so the way we work is it's basically everybody. 470 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 7: Everybody gets the same cooking. We we allocate across all 471 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 7: of our funds pro rata, so everybody gets everything. Our 472 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 7: biggest investor is, as I mentioned before, TIAA, which is 473 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 7: a triple a trillion dollar non profit investors to get this, 474 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 7: they're getting the same treats Lisa is getting the same treaty, Lisa. 475 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 7: We will get the same treatment as Tia. 476 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 3: How's that, Lisa? How do you feel about solid? 477 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:38,959 Speaker 4: All right? 478 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 7: I know that she's triple A too yield and then 479 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,640 Speaker 7: clean right, We'll give her everything she deserves. 480 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 3: What's the uh? 481 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,320 Speaker 5: The capital raising environment like out there these days? 482 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 3: Credit size and infix and exercise. So it's all. 483 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 7: About balance, right, Because one of the things that we've 484 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:57,919 Speaker 7: talked about here is if you have too. 485 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,639 Speaker 3: Much coming money coming in, it's really really hard to 486 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:02,320 Speaker 3: deploy thoughtfully. 487 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,439 Speaker 7: We have found, and this has been part of our 488 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 7: whole thing, is that the amount of money that we're 489 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,640 Speaker 7: raising is right about the amount of money that we're deploying, 490 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 7: which is nice because we're balanced. We don't we're not 491 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 7: in a rush to put money out. 492 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 3: We do it thoughtfully. 493 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,160 Speaker 7: We turn down ninety five percent of all the deals 494 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 7: that come in because we know we're going to own 495 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:23,360 Speaker 7: this thing forever. And so what's happening is the fundraising 496 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 7: environment has actually improved for the for the managers who 497 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:30,400 Speaker 7: are showing better returns and better track work. Is particularly 498 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,120 Speaker 7: in this environment now where portfolios are showing some cracks 499 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 7: for more of the adventurous lenders, so their tia. 500 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 2: Craft and the Lisa Mateo retirement plan. Yeah, you're going 501 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 2: to have a piece of the action. Describe your incentive 502 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:51,160 Speaker 2: and interests to tia Craft and al Mateo trustees. 503 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 7: For Yeah, so if you if you have private credit, 504 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,639 Speaker 7: you're getting kind of a right now ten percent nine 505 00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 7: to ten percent on lever deal. 506 00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 2: If we're and then we have a spectrum. 507 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,639 Speaker 7: We have junior cap where you're getting kind of mid teens, 508 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 7: you have private equity where you're getting kind of high teens, 509 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 7: low twenties. And so this diversity of strategies that we're 510 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 7: offering both institutional and wealth clients is very attractive in 511 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 7: this environment because people are looking for both durability of 512 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,800 Speaker 7: income streams, less volatility like don't hurt my, don't hurt 513 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:23,280 Speaker 7: my downside, and the enough upside to justify going into 514 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,119 Speaker 7: an ill liquid asset class. So bonds, howal bonds is 515 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 7: like seven percent, you got to do better than that. 516 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 7: For all the syndicated loans kind of five to six percent. 517 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 7: You got to do better than that and keep me safe. 518 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 2: Oh, all my raders up. I'm sorry, Randy's looking at me. 519 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 3: He's got that evil. That's loving My concerns. How are 520 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 3: the banks? 521 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:44,639 Speaker 5: What's the competitive marketplace out there with you and the 522 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 5: leverage loan desks that you know the banks up. 523 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:48,160 Speaker 2: We don't compete with. 524 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 7: Them because again they're basically they're not doing any new LBOs. 525 00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 7: So about only about five only about five percent of 526 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 7: new LBO activities being done by the banks right now. 527 00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 2: Isn't that amazing? That is crazy. 528 00:23:58,600 --> 00:23:59,119 Speaker 3: It's crazy. 529 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:00,920 Speaker 2: It's mostly refin' the repricing. 530 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 3: So you guys have that mark. 531 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, look, the reason is because on that stuff, 532 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,719 Speaker 7: we're our deals. When we send a term shot out 533 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 7: to private actuity sponsor, it's like, here's the deal, we're 534 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 7: gonna we can hold the whole thing, and so we 535 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,120 Speaker 7: taken the risk out, whereas the banks you know, are 536 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 7: just selling so they could change the price on you 537 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 7: at the last minute. 538 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:24,160 Speaker 2: Oh did he say that? Yeah, I'm kidding, Brandy. Thank 539 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 2: you for the Randy Schimmer not from Dubai from New 540 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 2: York City today, Churchill Asset Management. Stay with us. More 541 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 2: from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 542 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday 543 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,919 Speaker 1: starting at seven am. Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 544 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,920 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 545 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,920 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 546 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 3: Just say Alexa Play. Bloomberg eleven thirty were the newspaper 547 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 3: for is Lisa MATEO Okay, I'll start here. 548 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 8: Okay, So remember last year when all those people, the 549 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 8: Oasis fans, they complained about the cost of buying tickets. 550 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 8: They want up like four over four thousand dollars a piece. 551 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,360 Speaker 8: So the Financial Times are saying UK ministers they want 552 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,080 Speaker 8: to ban the resale of tickets for live events above 553 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 8: the original cost. So the new legislation it's being drawn 554 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 8: up by the Labor government. It's also going to cap 555 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:25,080 Speaker 8: service fees charged by resale platforms. So the changes, of 556 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,639 Speaker 8: course it's going to affect people like stub Hub. The 557 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 8: stub Hub shares they were down about fourteen percent now 558 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:34,040 Speaker 8: they're off about one percent. But stubbub International, which is 559 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,160 Speaker 8: kind of a separate business of sub sub they say 560 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,959 Speaker 8: that it, you know, limiting the price increases risks. I'm 561 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,920 Speaker 8: creating this illegal black market for tickets. So they're saying, 562 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 8: did you do that? 563 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 3: It's going to be worse I mean, I. 564 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 2: This is insane. It's just a market. Is what the 565 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 2: market is. They want to go see Bruce exactly. 566 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:51,680 Speaker 5: The market is what the market is. And it's me 567 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 5: talk to live dation people. They've been dealing with this 568 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:55,919 Speaker 5: for decades at Ticketmaster. 569 00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:01,159 Speaker 2: But do we all agree it's just simply Arizona Grande 570 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,359 Speaker 2: gets out there. It's just I mean, they set the 571 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 2: tickets lower. I get it, but it is anybody talking 572 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 2: about illegality on the part. 573 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,080 Speaker 5: No, I think the big issue is you have to 574 00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 5: try to figure out how to identify who's buying your 575 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,720 Speaker 5: tickets on the primary market. If it's a you know, reseller, 576 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 5: you got to get that person out somehow, And I 577 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 5: don't know how you do that, and they've been trying 578 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 5: to do that at the beginning of time. 579 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm very careful, Like I'm a loyal stuff. I'm 580 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 2: very very careful about it. I know you had a 581 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:35,600 Speaker 2: terrible experience. 582 00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:40,919 Speaker 8: Exactly flashbacks. Okay, this one is about pickup lines. Okay, 583 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,120 Speaker 8: I don't know if you guys have your favorite pickup line, 584 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 8: but okay, this is Bill Ackman, you know, billionaire Seniors Squareholdings. Yes, 585 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 8: he's offering advice to young men who have a tough 586 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 8: time approaching women in public. 587 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:54,440 Speaker 3: Okay, so. 588 00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 8: He said what he posted about it on X he said, 589 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 8: all you do was he used to do is he 590 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,640 Speaker 8: used to go up to a woman and say, may 591 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,159 Speaker 8: I meet you? That was it, ok line and sinker 592 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,800 Speaker 8: it worked for him. Okay, but I know his kids 593 00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:10,680 Speaker 8: are probably like a dad. 594 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 5: I can't believe your just run your hedge fun paces just. 595 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,200 Speaker 2: I've never met a woman in a bar. It's just unbelievable. 596 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 2: It went viral though. 597 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 3: People were like talking about it. 598 00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,360 Speaker 8: Yes, they's went crazy over like forty two hundred comments, 599 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,439 Speaker 8: and he was like answering back some of them too, 600 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,879 Speaker 8: going back and forth. And remember Whitney Tilson. You know 601 00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:32,359 Speaker 8: he ran for mayor New York State for magic. He's 602 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 8: known actmens since they were back at Harvard, right, and 603 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,760 Speaker 8: he told Business Sider that that line worked. He saw 604 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 8: it worked. 605 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:40,879 Speaker 3: There you go for him. I mean, now you know 606 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 3: he has kids and you know all that kind of thing. 607 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 3: So I got billions, so I think he's no product. 608 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,280 Speaker 3: But back then, yes, you're right, you're right, good point. 609 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,680 Speaker 2: You have an h R ship in my left shoulder. 610 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:54,159 Speaker 2: I'm so bad one as Lisa Tale. Her worst pickle 611 00:27:56,160 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 2: is Ken Cooper's ephing me right now, it was probably might. 612 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,119 Speaker 3: Actually here we go. 613 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,840 Speaker 8: Okay, So the Wall Street Journal has a look into 614 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:11,120 Speaker 8: how the world's most watch YouTube video has not made 615 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 8: its creator rich. 616 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 3: Okay, what is this video? It is the. 617 00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 8: Children's tune from South Korean company Pinkfong. Yes, it's gonna 618 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 8: be stuck in your head. 619 00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 3: All morning long. 620 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,679 Speaker 8: Baby Shark played on average more than four point seven 621 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,200 Speaker 8: million times a day since it was uploaded in twenty 622 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:34,679 Speaker 8: sixteen sixteen four four billion views. But pink Fong actually 623 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 8: had its first trading day in Seoul on Tuesday, rose 624 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 8: more than nine percent to about twenty eight dollars a share, 625 00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,720 Speaker 8: move the company's market value to equal about four hundred 626 00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,480 Speaker 8: million dollars. But the Wall Street Journal what they do 627 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 8: is how they have this look into how all that 628 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 8: viral power hasn't really translated to this big fortune for 629 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 8: the company because restrictions are placed on online children's contents 630 00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 8: or kind of caps the ability to monetize on all 631 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 8: that attention. But I mean, are still doing pretty good? 632 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:02,080 Speaker 1: All right? 633 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:03,400 Speaker 3: Baby sure cants? 634 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 2: All right? Black Pink new album January. It's like Waiting 635 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:11,200 Speaker 2: for Landman, except it's Black Pink's next album. Can't Mate 636 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 2: the Newspapers and Lisa Manteo. 637 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 638 00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:23,080 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 639 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,680 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 640 00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:30,800 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 641 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,200 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 642 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal