Speaker 1: To on the move, dall and Deep Spieglers, peas Dolls
Speaker 1: from the Baptist Health Studio.
Speaker 2: This inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is Drivetime
Speaker 2: with Travis Wingfield.
Speaker 1: Please God myavans in the playoffs? What is up Dolphins?
Speaker 1: And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast. I am your host,
Speaker 1: Travis Wingfield. And on today's show, another game preview as
Speaker 1: we take a look at Week seven and the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 1: I'll go down the Colts offense and defense, talk about
Speaker 1: matchups to expose, matchups to be concerned about, and how
Speaker 1: Miami can get a dub or how it might go
Speaker 1: in the wrong direction. The most comprehensive preview show you
Speaker 1: will find on your Miami Dolphins. From the Baptist Health
Speaker 1: Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is the
Speaker 1: Draft Time Podcast. Lucas Oil Stadium for a one o'clock kickoff.
Speaker 1: Our next three games are at one o'clock. Five of
Speaker 1: the next six are at one o'clock. What a beautiful
Speaker 1: day that is for us that work the games and
Speaker 1: several hours after the games, it's gonna be in a dome,
Speaker 1: so no weather to talk about there. Let's go ahead
Speaker 1: and meet the Colts, who we have not seen since
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. We have not seen that building since
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. Quick show of hands, who remembers the Colts.
Speaker 2: Being in the AFC East.
Speaker 1: You know, I've been having this sort of existential crisis lately,
Speaker 1: as I'm sure many of us do, as we approach
Speaker 1: the age of forty. My brother just turned forty. Happy
Speaker 1: birtha the old man. Huh'm forty, and the kids just
Speaker 1: seem to get like a year older every month. It
Speaker 1: seems like my little girl was just a baby the
Speaker 1: other day and now she's, you know, kind of sassy
Speaker 1: and talking back here and there. So there's that to
Speaker 1: live with. But here's an example. I was thinking about
Speaker 1: how content creators nowadays, like, Okay, So I fell asleep
Speaker 1: after the Bills kicked that field goal to go up
Speaker 1: twenty three to twenty the other night, Travis, wat's another
Speaker 1: sign that you are watched. You fall asleep watching football
Speaker 1: games now And so I came into work on Tuesday
Speaker 1: and wanted to see how the game ended because I
Speaker 1: knew the result, but I didn't know how we got there.
Speaker 1: So I pulled up game pass, had the all twenty
Speaker 1: two the condensed file and the original broadcast copy were
Speaker 1: all one click away, and it reminded me how I
Speaker 1: used to rewatch games a long time ago. I'll never
Speaker 1: forget this. After my senior year of high school, which
Speaker 1: was five oh six, I was going into junior college
Speaker 1: and still living at home that upcoming fall semester in
Speaker 1: two thousand and six. And I'm not even sure why
Speaker 1: it happened, but two thousand and five was when I
Speaker 1: went from what I would consider to be a casual
Speaker 1: Dolphins fan to completely obsessed. It was actually when I
Speaker 1: joined message boards and filled up a lot of my
Speaker 1: free time. While people were playing Halo or maybe even
Speaker 1: working part time jobs, I was on message boards talking
Speaker 1: about the Dolphins and football, and two of my favorite
Speaker 1: games from that season were the opener against the Broncos,
Speaker 1: the one that I asked Mike mc daniel about in
Speaker 1: my first meeting with him back when he got hired
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, because that was his first NFL
Speaker 1: game as a ballboy or rather an assistant i should say,
Speaker 1: for the Broncos, and the Week three win over the Panthers.
Speaker 1: Both of those teams would go on to play in
Speaker 1: the Championship games that year, and Miami be both of
Speaker 1: them in the first three games of the season. So
Speaker 1: I found this website that sold old Dolphins games and
Speaker 1: they were on VHS at the time. I don't think
Speaker 1: it was associated with the league in anyway, So I
Speaker 1: don't know how the guy was doing that legally because
Speaker 1: without the express britten concent of the National Football League.
Speaker 1: But man, when I tell you that I went to
Speaker 1: the mailbox every single day for two weeks waiting for
Speaker 1: those VHS tapes to arrive, that's my old man way
Speaker 1: of saying.
Speaker 2: You're young, and you have no idea how good you
Speaker 2: have it.
Speaker 1: I ran those VHS tapes so frequently that the tape
Speaker 1: literally wore out that Broncos game that I have it
Speaker 1: like skips when I try to put it back in
Speaker 1: the VCR at least last I checked in like twenty fourteen,
Speaker 1: whenever that was all right, tangent aside. That was just
Speaker 1: four years after the Colts moved from the East to
Speaker 1: the AC southal when they realigned the league from six
Speaker 1: divisions up to eight, And man, I held the Colts
Speaker 1: in the same regard as the Bills, Jets and Patriots
Speaker 1: for such a long time. It has since lessened for me,
Speaker 1: I think probably because of the most recent run of
Speaker 1: difficult years for them. You heard JJ Stankowitz on the
Speaker 1: show yesterday What a Name, by the way, mentioned this
Speaker 1: veteran quarterback hamster Will they've been on for the last
Speaker 1: half decade. Now, when you're changing quarterbacks every single year,
Speaker 1: you're probably not winning a lot of football games.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: Last year they were a dropped swing pass away from
Speaker 1: having a first and goal on a drive that had
Speaker 1: it finished in the paint, they would have made the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Not the Houston Texans, the darling of last year, who
Speaker 1: have since gone on to improve their roster and make
Speaker 1: themselves the team that everyone thought they could be. But
Speaker 1: they were really close to losing out in the playoffs
Speaker 1: all together last year because the Colts dropped the wide
Speaker 1: up and pass in the flat. And that was with
Speaker 1: Gardner Minshew go Koog's playing in fifteen of the seventeen
Speaker 1: games and starting thirteen of them. And I was a
Speaker 1: big Gardner Minshew coming out. He hasn't quite lived up
Speaker 1: to those expectations, but he is an NFL quarterback that
Speaker 1: probably is that fringe spot starter slash quality backup. The
Speaker 1: last time they did make the playoffs. Well, it was
Speaker 1: actually the first or wait yeah, the first year that
Speaker 1: they were able to go get a veteran quarterback after
Speaker 1: Andrew Luck's shocking retirement, which, by the way, if you're
Speaker 1: into scripted podcasts, it's called Luck. It was an athletic production.
Speaker 1: It's one of the best podcasts I've heard about the
Speaker 1: career and life of Andrew Luck and how injuries and
Speaker 1: Colt's decision making over years led to the most shocking
Speaker 1: retirement our league has seen since Ricky Williams, maybe even
Speaker 1: Barry Sanders. But Phil Rivers was the quarterback that was
Speaker 1: there in twenty twenty for their last good season, and
Speaker 1: he damn near guided them in the first year of
Speaker 1: seven playoff teams with a seven seed to beat a
Speaker 1: two seed when they lost to Buffalo by three in
Speaker 1: the wild card round after the pandemic season, after they
Speaker 1: went eleven to five. Since then, it's been Carson Wentz
Speaker 1: eight that was kind of a miracle with him there,
Speaker 1: and then Matt Ryan four and twelve and one an
Speaker 1: absolute disaster. Then Anthony Richardson with Gardner Minshew going nine
Speaker 1: to eight last year, the first under Shane Steiken, who
Speaker 1: has really earned his stripes as one of the top
Speaker 1: offensive innovators in all of football. They're a team largely
Speaker 1: built through the draft. They have studs like Quentin Nelson,
Speaker 1: Ryan Kelly, Braden Smith, Bernard Raymond, all draft picks up front.
Speaker 1: And by the way, I keep seeing this on Twitter,
Speaker 1: the Colts are not going to trade Quentin Nelson, So
Speaker 1: shut up, like they're not going to trade that guy.
Speaker 1: They're in a playoff spot right now. Jonathan Taylor was
Speaker 1: a second round draft pick there. He's their their bell
Speaker 1: cow back. Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and of course Anthony
Speaker 1: Richardson on defense, Kenny Moore, Grover Stewart, Juju Brentz, Julian Blackman.
Speaker 1: All those guys were draft picks on that defense. They
Speaker 1: have not been huge free agency buyers, but arguably their
Speaker 1: best player, and I would say he is their best player,
Speaker 1: was acquired via trade and DeForest Buckner, but he's been
Speaker 1: on the injury reserve since their first game and his
Speaker 1: eligible return this week. We'll find out more on him
Speaker 1: going as we go along throughout the course of this week.
Speaker 1: They're kind of difficult to peg. As far as the team.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say they're star laden, but they have a
Speaker 1: nice collection of talent, but also plenty of unproven parts
Speaker 1: that makes their future a little bit of a mystery,
Speaker 1: as is the case with every team, but just in
Speaker 1: terms of known quantities, they don't have a lot of them.
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and get to the Colts offense here
Speaker 1: in their scheme. I mentioned Steichen as one of the
Speaker 1: top innovators in the game. I think the thing that
Speaker 1: he does so well and creates easy throws for his
Speaker 1: quarterback while keeping things relatively simple where they get to
Speaker 1: the same core concepts, but they do it from different alignments, groupings,
Speaker 1: and presentations. And quite frankly, that's how Travis Winfield operated
Speaker 1: his online Madden teams. I ran with the same four
Speaker 1: plays and would just call hot routes and adjustments and
Speaker 1: shift the formations at the lion of scrimmage.
Speaker 2: I was basically the modern day Peyton manning of Madden.
Speaker 1: One thing I will harp on with the switch back
Speaker 1: to Richard sim is the Colts red zone offense changes
Speaker 1: drastically with him in the game, as is the case
Speaker 1: with most teams that a quarterback is you know who
Speaker 1: is just as dangerous with his legs he is his
Speaker 1: arms maybe even more dangerous, and in this case, with
Speaker 1: how he's developed so far, I would say that is
Speaker 1: the case. For instance, they are twelve of twenty one
Speaker 1: scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Not bad, not great.
Speaker 1: They're five of eleven under Flacco, but seven for ten
Speaker 1: with Richardson. They just find a way to push the
Speaker 1: ball over the goal line when they get down there.
Speaker 1: With Richardson in the game, and you can see how
Speaker 1: Ar and JT pair together so well with what Stykean
Speaker 1: wants to do, especially in that part of the field,
Speaker 1: and that's played tight condensed formations across multiple formations. They
Speaker 1: bring in so many tight ends and receivers in nasty
Speaker 1: splits to add gaps in the running game. They create
Speaker 1: space to the perimeter and the vertical game.
Speaker 2: It's a weird.
Speaker 1: Comparison to make because he was there during the run
Speaker 1: we mentioned off the top, but it kind of reminds
Speaker 1: me of Frank Reich, you know, coach the Colts the
Speaker 1: last time he was a coach in this league, where
Speaker 1: they would get to three and four vert concepts from
Speaker 1: twelve to thirteen personnel and get multiple tight ends running
Speaker 1: vertical routes from these you know, bunches and condensed formations,
Speaker 1: And again, I think Jonathan Taylor is a massive, massive
Speaker 1: part of that, so his availability for this game to
Speaker 1: me will be a very big deal. When I watch
Speaker 1: the Colts on tape, it reminds me of our offense
Speaker 1: in the sense that the structure and design does a
Speaker 1: really good job of showing multiple looks and keys for
Speaker 1: defenders to present that proverbial cheese and then hope to
Speaker 1: exploit the space created by the false steps and misreads
Speaker 1: of those players. They go this way seventy five percent
Speaker 1: eleven personnel. That's one back, one tight end, three receivers.
Speaker 1: The rest of it is basically twelve personnel. Twenty one
Speaker 1: percent of the time they have one back, two tight ends,
Speaker 1: and two receivers. The remainder of that is thirteen personnel.
Speaker 1: Four percent of the time they don't have a full back.
Speaker 1: They never run two back sets, literally zero snaps in that.
Speaker 1: And they also have run just a single play without
Speaker 1: a tight end of four receiver sets. So you're only
Speaker 1: going to get eleven personnel and twelve personnel and the
Speaker 1: occasional thirteen personnel look from this offense.
Speaker 2: So it's all the same. How do you attack it?
Speaker 1: Well, I think it's tough because as I watched on
Speaker 1: a coach clinic to study to get ready for this game,
Speaker 1: the general thing I learned is that it's a simplified
Speaker 1: offense in the sense that they run a lot of
Speaker 1: the same plays from different pre snap presentations. And what
Speaker 1: I saw further into that research was a Colt McCoy
Speaker 1: video on his Underdog film study show that he does.
Speaker 1: He said that Steichen has a great feel for what
Speaker 1: coverages he believes he will get for those calls based
Speaker 1: upon the percentages, so he has a good in game,
Speaker 1: game day feel for play calling. That's why I think
Speaker 1: the best way to attack it, well, it's always this way.
Speaker 1: You just have to be multiple. And I think the
Speaker 1: best thing for the Dolphins, and the best thing they've
Speaker 1: done as a team this year is on defense with
Speaker 1: their ability to be multiple and how they marry their
Speaker 1: coverages in their fronts and present it in different ways.
Speaker 1: And I think this defense, you know, sands a couple
Speaker 1: of big runs here and there has been dynamite and
Speaker 1: I think if the Colts fail to hit the big run,
Speaker 1: I think will be in great shape from a defensive standpoint,
Speaker 1: and that takes us into the first Big three or
Speaker 1: the first of the Big three against the Colts offense
Speaker 1: here and I just simply wrote down blitz and that's
Speaker 1: probably the most generic, basic take you'll get here on
Speaker 1: the Drift Time podcast of all time. But I think
Speaker 1: when you consider the matchup of the Dolphins rushers versus
Speaker 1: a very good Colts line, I don't like the way
Speaker 1: that plays out for Miami and a quarterback that has
Speaker 1: struggled to play from the pocket so far in his
Speaker 1: whole career. I think the best thing you can do
Speaker 1: is to mix up your looks enough to play contain
Speaker 1: rush for don't try to go get him, let him
Speaker 1: come to you, and then send the extra rusher that
Speaker 1: speeds up his processor to then either a get home
Speaker 1: and make the sack. That would be great, because if
Speaker 1: he escapes, that changes everything. But blitz him up the middle,
Speaker 1: rush contain outside, keep him in the pocket, make him
Speaker 1: play from there. You basically want to mirror and react
Speaker 1: to him. Don't try to go get him or b
Speaker 1: it forces the ball out of his hand without a
Speaker 1: clean base or an altered arm angle, and that's when
Speaker 1: the ball can get away from him. He has a
Speaker 1: very hirky, jerky motion that the ball just doesn't always
Speaker 1: go in the same position. I think people bag on
Speaker 1: Richardson for the inaccurate throws that make all these reels
Speaker 1: on social media. I think there's actually a lot of
Speaker 1: examples on tape of him getting through the progression and
Speaker 1: making anticipatory throws. But Travis, the numbers are the numbers.
Speaker 2: Why they so bad?
Speaker 1: I think he just is flat out missing sometimes, and
Speaker 1: I think that's been the way to get him to
Speaker 1: do so. I do not think he's got the best
Speaker 1: finesse type of arm. Again, like it's the motion is
Speaker 1: not consistent. It reminds me I had someone at a
Speaker 1: golf course last summer like fix my chipping, and it
Speaker 1: wasn't bad. I just was inconsistent where he was like,
Speaker 1: you're too short on your back swing, even on those
Speaker 1: short chips. If you make it a little bit longer
Speaker 1: and make the backswing as much as the fall through,
Speaker 1: you won't have to like jerk it back down bunk.
Speaker 1: But if you just make it more smooth that way,
Speaker 1: you'll have the same ball strike and you'll finish better,
Speaker 1: and you'll get better contact and have a better stroke.
Speaker 1: On your chipping games. Same thing when it comes to
Speaker 1: layering of football, Like if you're quick at the top
Speaker 1: of your release and then it's up, you know you
Speaker 1: have to speed up through the top of the process.
Speaker 1: The ball's gonna wane on you and go in different directions.
Speaker 1: So teams have blitzed Richardson just twelve times on his
Speaker 1: eighty seven dropbacks. It's fourteen percent. But he's completed one
Speaker 1: pass for two yards and thrown two picks on the
Speaker 1: ten throws. In those twelve drop backs, he got sacked
Speaker 1: twice or scrambled twice, I should say. And PFF has
Speaker 1: him with a third turnover with a sorry, a fourth
Speaker 1: turnover worthy play in that grouping, which gives him a
Speaker 1: twenty five percent turnover worthy play rate. And while he
Speaker 1: has four picks when not blitzed, that's four turnover worthy
Speaker 1: plays out of seventy five dropbacks, just five percent. So
Speaker 1: his turnover worthy play rate increases times five when you
Speaker 1: blitz him. Go force the issue, especially when your offense
Speaker 1: is playing like Miami's offense. He does have two scrambles
Speaker 1: in at three point three to three time to throw
Speaker 1: in those dropbacks takes them forever to see things and
Speaker 1: play it out. And one of those scrambles went for
Speaker 1: a first down, the other was for no gain. And
Speaker 1: he has not yet been sacked when he's when he's
Speaker 1: been blitzed. So that's why I do think you blitz him.
Speaker 1: It creates it creates errors. And now all that said,
Speaker 1: you don't usually blitz to sack him again zero sacks,
Speaker 1: but the four sacks he has taken are when he's
Speaker 1: not being blitzed, and that's when you get good coverage
Speaker 1: and the feet stop, and that's when you can get
Speaker 1: all kinds of wonky throws. But I will caution beating
Speaker 1: this Colts offensive line with just four is going to
Speaker 1: be a tall task for posterity. Flacco had been blitzed
Speaker 1: thirty percent of his drop backs and he's completely just
Speaker 1: fifty three percent of those with a four point three YPA.
Speaker 1: But two touchdowns and no picks. Not great, but that's
Speaker 1: way better than Richardson. And I put this in here
Speaker 1: because you're likely going to see a backup rookie center
Speaker 1: in Tanner Borderlini and with a quarterback that has limited
Speaker 1: reps as a pro and collegiate, So focusing that protection
Speaker 1: scheme or trying to get after it can really generate
Speaker 1: some splash plays for your defense, which I think is
Speaker 1: exactly what you need to win this game without to
Speaker 1: a tongue by Low once again. So starting right guard,
Speaker 1: will Freeze is on the injury reserve. Ryan Kelly the
Speaker 1: center might play. I tend to think that he won't.
Speaker 1: Braden Smith and Bernard Raymond are maybe the best tackle
Speaker 1: tannem and football right now off the edge, and then
Speaker 1: Quenton Nelson could be the best left guard in football.
Speaker 1: So with those tackles and absent JP and Chubb and
Speaker 1: Cam Good and Shaq Bartt and YadA, YadA, YadA, YadA, Galli,
Speaker 1: that's why I think you have to play rush contame.
Speaker 1: You're not gonna get a lot of one on one
Speaker 1: wins with you know, Ogbah and Chop and whoever else
Speaker 1: is out there. Don't and Tyas Bowser, don't let fifteen
Speaker 1: get outside of you and go after Tanner, Bordolini and
Speaker 1: Dalton Tucker the backup guard and for Freeze and really
Speaker 1: force the issue on Richardson from the pocket. Let's go
Speaker 1: ahead and take our first break right there, come back
Speaker 1: and do big keys two and three for the Colts offense.
Speaker 2: We'll also do the Colts defense after that as well.
Speaker 1: All that next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield,
Speaker 1: brought to you by Automation Dolphin's defensive Keys to beat
Speaker 1: the Colts on Sunday in Indianapolis is going to be
Speaker 1: heavily focused on Anthony Richardson and point number one is
Speaker 1: to blitz him. Point number two is to keep him
Speaker 1: in the pocket. To kind of carry this over here
Speaker 1: and continue the theme here, I do think you can
Speaker 1: find your pressure inside because of those backups I mentioned,
Speaker 1: but also because of the skills of ninety two, ninety three, eleven,
Speaker 1: and twenty That of course is Seiler, Campbell, Long and
Speaker 1: Brooks in the middle, and that's where I see your
Speaker 1: impact type of players or plays to shut down this offense.
Speaker 1: We know we love to flood those a gaps off
Speaker 1: the success of both Seiler and Campbell inside, and I
Speaker 1: sort of love the idea of sending a backer with
Speaker 1: regularity like I would consistently whether it's Chopp looping inside
Speaker 1: or Jordan Brooks or David Long, I just continuously put
Speaker 1: pressure on the interior and force him to just move
Speaker 1: side to side and wiggle because I want him to
Speaker 1: feel like he has to escape, but also stay within
Speaker 1: the pocket, if that makes sense, Like force him off
Speaker 1: the spot within the pocket. And you can do that
Speaker 1: by winning your interior matchups and forcing the issue by
Speaker 1: bringing more rushers inside. And I continue to harp on this,
Speaker 1: do just play rush contain off the perimeter the entire game,
Speaker 1: and don't let him have escape lanes. I think if
Speaker 1: you just let him throw from the pocket, you can
Speaker 1: capitalize on the opportunities that have been provided by him.
Speaker 1: He's played eleven career games, has eleven turnover worthy throws
Speaker 1: and six fumbles, so he puts the ball in harm's
Speaker 1: way one and a half times per game in his career.
Speaker 2: You got to capitalize on those.
Speaker 1: And that doesn't count the fact that he's missed like
Speaker 1: the majority of three full games. So I would say
Speaker 1: it's more like eight career games with you know, seventeen
Speaker 1: turnover type of like, it's almost it's more like two
Speaker 1: per game. Really, you gotta capitalize on those. And if
Speaker 1: you look at his passing splits, it's it's pretty jarring.
Speaker 1: He's five of fourteen on passes twenty or more yards
Speaker 1: down the field. He's nine for twenty in the intermediate game,
Speaker 1: and of those fourteen completions, nine of those came when
Speaker 1: he was outside the pocket, and per nfl jesus Gsis,
Speaker 1: that's five completions beyond ten yards from inside the pocket
Speaker 1: and five of fourteen of those nine misses, six of
Speaker 1: those passes were deemed off target. So he is scattershot
Speaker 1: when you get him kind of you know, in the pocket,
Speaker 1: but also like on the move. That makes sense again,
Speaker 1: I think you get the point here, hemmiman. Make him
Speaker 1: play from with instructure and hope that his inconsistencies continue
Speaker 1: and you capitalize with the takeaways, and you can accomplish
Speaker 1: that in one other way, which is our third big key,
Speaker 1: force him to get his information after the snap. I
Speaker 1: don't want to make the entire section about Richard sim
Speaker 1: but I kind of feel like this game hinges on
Speaker 1: how he performs, and the Dolphins have some control over that.
Speaker 1: Right now, Quarterbacks can get hot and they can play
Speaker 1: the level where you have to tip your cap and
Speaker 1: say you beat us today, sir, thank you very much.
Speaker 1: May have another or maybe it's an ordinary Richardson day
Speaker 1: where he doesn't play that well and you force him
Speaker 1: into two more mistakes than he usually does, and you
Speaker 1: capitalize on those and you get a big takeaway and
Speaker 1: a big shutdown of this Colts offense, and you get
Speaker 1: a big win. This is actually more of a compliment
Speaker 1: than it sounds like. But I think he's like on
Speaker 1: his way to being a good processor. He's clearly not
Speaker 1: there yet. And again, I feel like a lot of
Speaker 1: his anticipatory throws come when he's broken contained outside the pocket.
Speaker 1: But I keep looking at these splits when he's blitzed
Speaker 1: and when he's not, and when he's pressured when he's not,
Speaker 1: or when it's covered up against a four man rush.
Speaker 2: You have to make him think. You have to get
Speaker 2: him out of rhythm.
Speaker 1: You have to. You know, we know this Dolphins defense,
Speaker 1: especially with Ramsey and full what they're doing right now
Speaker 1: playing at a super high level, and Cater having what
Speaker 1: I thought was his best games in this rookie year,
Speaker 1: playing a lot of perimeter snaps and forcing guys into
Speaker 1: the boundary of the field. I think you can muddy
Speaker 1: that early picture and then cap things with your safeties,
Speaker 1: whether it's Javon or Elijah or Jordan or whoever the
Speaker 1: hell plays in this game. To force throws into traffic
Speaker 1: because he will anticipate and play with confidence and anticipation,
Speaker 1: and there's been a lot of bad picks as a
Speaker 1: result of that this year, Like when he's expecting, you know,
Speaker 1: one thing, cuts it loose, he gets something else and
Speaker 1: it turns into a room service pick.
Speaker 2: We need that. That has to happen with the Dolphins
Speaker 2: in this game.
Speaker 1: I think Ramsey and Fuller and what they've been able
Speaker 1: to do in terms of mixing their pre snap alignments
Speaker 1: often varying coverage, I think that can really get Richardson
Speaker 1: into some of those mistakes. And while I do think
Speaker 1: that Pittman and Downs are a nice combo, it's entirely
Speaker 1: different style of players there. I think Ramsey is suited
Speaker 1: to handle either of them because he's an elite player.
Speaker 1: I think Fuller I like him a little more on
Speaker 1: Downs because Pittman has a big size advantage on him,
Speaker 1: but I think we match up well there. And the
Speaker 1: way Ramsey has really brilliantly disc guys a lot of
Speaker 1: his looks and wound up wiping out entire sides of
Speaker 1: the concept. If he can do that, I think you'll
Speaker 1: force some turnovers and ultimately win this football game. I
Speaker 1: didn't really get into Jonathan Taylor too much because we'll
Speaker 1: see if he goes, but man, he changes the entire
Speaker 1: dynamic of that offense. In fact, they ran the ball
Speaker 1: forty five percent of the time when he's in there,
Speaker 1: and when he's not available just one third of the
Speaker 1: time they run the ball, and the results are quite
Speaker 1: the juxtaposition. They are five and eight over the last
Speaker 1: two plus seasons. When JT does not playing games, they
Speaker 1: might be the team with the biggest targets in the league,
Speaker 1: which also tracks for the red zone prowess and proclivity
Speaker 1: to run the football with added gaps in the way
Speaker 1: they block on the perimeter. In the running game out there,
Speaker 1: Moley Cox and Andrew Ogletree tight ends one to two
Speaker 1: are massive. They both are like six foot five. Pittman
Speaker 1: is six foot four, Alex Pierce is six foot three,
Speaker 1: so get ready eighty Mitchell six foot four, so get
Speaker 1: ready for back shoulders can tested balls as well as
Speaker 1: a concerted effort the run blocking game off the perimeter.
Speaker 1: I just think Miami's gonna have a lot of chance
Speaker 1: to get picks in this game and they have to
Speaker 1: make them. Let's go ahead and do a quick pivot
Speaker 1: here to the Colts defense. We'll take a break here
Speaker 1: in just a second, but talk about the scheme here.
Speaker 1: And it's Gus Bradley, and we know what that means.
Speaker 1: I've done several game previews that featured going up against
Speaker 1: Gus Bradley on this podcast. So for those of you
Speaker 1: that are right or Die, you've heard this before. He
Speaker 1: and Pete Carroll ushered in the era of Cover three
Speaker 1: in Seattle with the Legion of Boom. But that's a
Speaker 1: lot easier when you have Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas
Speaker 1: and Cam Chancellor back there. He played it in Jacksonville
Speaker 1: with our very own Jaalen Ramsey. He took it with
Speaker 1: him to Vegas, and now it's here with the Colts
Speaker 1: each of the last three years, and this Colts defense
Speaker 1: has not finished inside the top twenty five and scoring
Speaker 1: defense with Gusta Fer Bradley. Nobody runs more Cover three
Speaker 1: than the Colts at fifty eight percent. The natural changeup
Speaker 1: off of that, of course, is Cover one.
Speaker 2: Just real quick.
Speaker 1: Cover three is three high shell. You have a single
Speaker 1: middlefield safety and then two perimeter usually cornerbacks that play
Speaker 1: those roles with a second safety kind of coming down
Speaker 1: as a buzzer or a crosser beater. The natural changeup
Speaker 1: off that cover one that just means a single high
Speaker 1: safety and man coverage off the perimeter. Of course, that
Speaker 1: is that's uniform, not always the case. They will use quarters,
Speaker 1: which is cover four more than your typical cover one
Speaker 1: cover three teams. In fact, of the three teams that
Speaker 1: run more Cover three or that run Cover three more
Speaker 1: than half the time, they're one of them. They lead
Speaker 1: that group with eleven percent quarters coverage. They do not
Speaker 1: play zero. They literally don't play Only two teams have
Speaker 1: run less zero than they do. They typically play off
Speaker 1: soft and they like to play from light boxes. I
Speaker 1: imagine you will get a lot of buzzers to deal
Speaker 1: with the immediate cross or intermediate crossers we run and
Speaker 1: all the deep overs we run. Interestingly enough, their EPA
Speaker 1: per play from cover three ranks twenty first, so their
Speaker 1: main coverage gets beat a lot. But they also have
Speaker 1: the best Cover one defense in football. Something to think
Speaker 1: about there with how they attack. And they also got
Speaker 1: Kenny Moore back last week, but Juju Brentz is still down.
Speaker 1: Sammy Womack has played really well, so there's some options there.
Speaker 1: I don't like any of those matchups with the Colt
Speaker 1: when it comes to Waddle and Tyreek.
Speaker 2: How to attack this thing.
Speaker 1: When I think about how to attack the scheme, well,
Speaker 1: teams have ran the ball down their throats. They ran
Speaker 1: twentieth and success rate against the run nineteenth and yards
Speaker 1: per rush and on balance and volume nine hundred and
Speaker 1: thirty one yards on the grounds, the most in the
Speaker 1: NFL given up by anybody this year. And a big
Speaker 1: reason for that well, structurally they invite it. They play
Speaker 1: off the perimeter, they play those light boxes. But they're
Speaker 1: also down a lot of key parts. I think the
Speaker 1: biggest injury question this week for this game is DeForest Buckner.
Speaker 1: McDaniel joked about facing him in practice for so long
Speaker 1: in San Francisco. They have really, really, really missed him
Speaker 1: in India this year. They just haven't had the size
Speaker 1: and strength and ability to hold blocks inside without him.
Speaker 1: Grover Stewart is a great player. I love watching him play,
Speaker 1: but he needs his running mate back. And then beyond that,
Speaker 1: you guys heard JJ on the Wednesday show. Taekwon Lewis
Speaker 1: is a guy that we talked about as a free
Speaker 1: agent possibly coming here. A guy that I liked on tape,
Speaker 1: and he's a guy that they said, feels like you
Speaker 1: lost somebody at every position because he can play the
Speaker 1: one technique all the way out to the nine technique.
Speaker 1: They don't have their top guy, their top edge guy
Speaker 1: speaking of nine techniques in Samson Ebukom. They're still working
Speaker 1: Quitty payback into the fold. He returned on Sunday after
Speaker 1: two games. That's also been impacting their pass rush. It's
Speaker 1: been a bottom five and pressure rate. Haven't had a
Speaker 1: sack in two games, and that lack of pressure makes
Speaker 1: it tough on that coverage to hold up, especially against
Speaker 1: the quarterback. That can create the best part for Miami.
Speaker 1: If they're in those cover three looks or Cover one
Speaker 1: off and the rush cannot get in, Tyler can either
Speaker 1: take the man coverage and beat it that way, or
Speaker 1: he can, you know, find a way to get on
Speaker 1: the perimeter against a zone look that has peeled off
Speaker 1: and they're you know, fifteen yards down the field. Let's
Speaker 1: go ahead and do the first of my Big three.
Speaker 1: We'll take a break after that. The Big three versus
Speaker 1: the Indianapolis defense is to do exactly that attack the perimeter.
Speaker 1: Just structurally, every defense has a spot that they're willing to,
Speaker 1: you know, kind of give up, right.
Speaker 2: It's the vulnerability.
Speaker 1: You cannot cover every blade of grass in this game,
Speaker 1: and in the scheme, they're willing to give up a
Speaker 1: little bit in the short flats, which you can get
Speaker 1: to via the screen game, the quick game, the run game.
Speaker 1: You can run them off and run hitches and comebacks
Speaker 1: down the field if you want to push the ball
Speaker 1: a little more. And when I look at this Colts defense,
Speaker 1: I look at a banged up front playing in one
Speaker 1: of two linebackers whose entire game is speed, so much
Speaker 1: so that one of their damn names is Speed, same
Speaker 1: as EJ.
Speaker 2: Speed, literally's two hundred pounds. His name is EJ. Speed.
Speaker 1: Their primary backer is EJ. Speed, two hundred pounds. And
Speaker 1: you can influence his game a lot with a heavy
Speaker 1: dose of alec Ingold and Julian Hill coming on those
Speaker 1: rap blocks. It's the cults of old Man, remember Gary Brackett.
Speaker 1: If you run the ball down their throat, they're gonna
Speaker 1: give up some yards that way. And the reason I
Speaker 1: think it's important to stretch the edge we saw in
Speaker 1: the Patriots game, and we've heard McDaniel wax poetic about
Speaker 1: this time and time again. The basis of this offense
Speaker 1: begins in wide zone and that outside running game, and
Speaker 1: the Patriots began to adjust. They started adding multiple force
Speaker 1: defenders of the equation where they would pull a second
Speaker 1: defender off the edge to ensure we could not win
Speaker 1: the edge in from those same cover one and Cover
Speaker 1: three looks. Go watch the film. On that final drive,
Speaker 1: you consistently got overplay off the edge, which created bang lanes.
Speaker 2: Bang is when the running.
Speaker 1: Back sees a gap open inside, puts his foot in
Speaker 1: the ground and gets horizontal a post to continuing his
Speaker 1: track outside. It's the concept behind zone runs is bounce
Speaker 1: bang and bend. Bounces going to the same side, bounce
Speaker 1: it out wide bang is get upfield bend, it is
Speaker 1: go back against the grain, and it's the same for
Speaker 1: Jalen Right and Rahe Moster. They both were able to
Speaker 1: effectively do that, and they try to jump outside and
Speaker 1: presume where a block was going, and Alec was so
Speaker 1: adept at adjusting on the fly, and the back would
Speaker 1: follow him. We get second level springs with really no resistance.
Speaker 1: I think you can get that again against the Colts
Speaker 1: on Sunday. Get Grover Stewart rolling wide, get those linebackers
Speaker 1: overplaying the outside stuff that they have to win that
Speaker 1: way because they cannot get off blocks physically, and that
Speaker 1: can open everything else up inside and in the passing game.
Speaker 1: I think if the Dolphins get the ball on the
Speaker 1: edge a couple of times early successfully, the Colts are
Speaker 1: going to be in trouble. I think it's another Alec
Speaker 1: and John Neu game in that sense, and then we
Speaker 1: should be able to see Devon a chan factor back
Speaker 1: in when it comes to those wide runs and screen game.
Speaker 1: I mean, if there's anybody in the league that's better
Speaker 1: show them, I don't think there is one. So that's
Speaker 1: number one. Number two falls off of that. We're gonna
Speaker 1: take a quick break rate here, come back and talk
Speaker 1: about big things number two and three, what's at stake,
Speaker 1: keys of the game, and predict the game here on
Speaker 1: the Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to
Speaker 1: you by Auto Nation.
Speaker 2: We left off with a bit of a.
Speaker 1: Cliffhanger from thing number one against this Colts defense. Thing
Speaker 1: number two is to generate and take your shots. If
Speaker 1: you watch the Dolphins HQ breakdown from this week from
Speaker 1: that game winning drive, The Dolphins earned some of those
Speaker 1: looks by emphasizing the opposite. For instance, the Patriots played
Speaker 1: a heavy box, single high look that turned into man
Speaker 1: free post snap. That is a cover one, that's all
Speaker 1: it is. And they ran play action the Tyreek side,
Speaker 1: and they got the vertical displacement on the hook linebacker
Speaker 1: that could have sunk back into that passing window, and
Speaker 1: he came up and bit on the run action and
Speaker 1: they threw that curl behind him against a post safety
Speaker 1: and an outside leverage cornerback that is taking candy from
Speaker 1: a baby that will never get defended against that look.
Speaker 1: They earned that with the run game early on. Then
Speaker 1: I felt hitting that opened up the run game again
Speaker 1: later on in that drive as we saw them peel
Speaker 1: back into light box and split safety looks, and we
Speaker 1: just went to work getting a hat on a hat
Speaker 1: in the running game. You'll hear Moose Johnston on the
Speaker 1: podcast tomorrow talking about the difficult role that alec Ingold
Speaker 1: had within that game and how his execution of it
Speaker 1: kind of got things going. I really think you'll see
Speaker 1: more of the same, or I guess could I should
Speaker 1: say I expect to Ron and Austin to have awesome games.
Speaker 1: I think Aaron Brewer, it's a tough matchup with Stuart
Speaker 1: size wise, but I think that he can get out
Speaker 1: wide are these linebackers and kind of force them into
Speaker 1: that overplay, and then the big guards Liam and Rob
Speaker 1: Jones can kind of clean it up from there. With
Speaker 1: all the tight end and fullbacks actions that we have
Speaker 1: in this game. Every matchup here favors Miami, even if
Speaker 1: you don't understand how the offensive line's playing, and a
Speaker 1: lot of folks don't. And the guy that on Twitter
Speaker 1: doing all the or the YouTube channel doing all the
Speaker 1: videos talking about how me and Kyle are just selling copium, Like, no, dude,
Speaker 1: it's just football one on one.
Speaker 2: I keep showing it on tape. Maybe we'll see it
Speaker 2: this week. I don't know.
Speaker 1: But they do not have the bodies to contend with
Speaker 1: us up front. Raekwon Davis has made like two plays
Speaker 1: this year, two more than he made here, right, hey,
Speaker 1: three stops on one hundred and sixty five. I write
Speaker 1: an article about that, the way you're waxing about Brandon
Speaker 1: Freakin Jones at a time. De da Boire has the
Speaker 1: same number of stops as Ray Kwan, playing just one
Speaker 1: hundred snaps and that's it, man, that's what they got.
Speaker 1: Beyond to forest bucking with light backers like go get these, dude,
Speaker 1: it's right there for you. And the reason I bring
Speaker 1: it back to taking your shots, I think that you
Speaker 1: can influence the defense a little bit with that. And
Speaker 1: we saw this back in Week one versus the Jags. Now,
Speaker 1: the Colts have had a lot of communication breakdowns on
Speaker 1: the back end. Go look at the eighty five yard
Speaker 1: touchdown that Brian Thomas had against them two weeks ago
Speaker 1: for that same Jags team. I think injuries and new
Speaker 1: pieces have a lot to do with that, but they're
Speaker 1: also busting coverages like two or three times a game
Speaker 1: that should be big touchdowns. And the reason I mentioned
Speaker 1: the Jacksonville game, they squatted on that quick game and
Speaker 1: robbed those crossers all day right then in the fourth
Speaker 1: quarter we hit them with two deep overs playing behind
Speaker 1: that glance in the quick game, they bite up, we
Speaker 1: burn them over the top. It's an eighty yard touchdown
Speaker 1: on the tyreek hill, a sixty three yard play to
Speaker 1: wall that should have been a touchdown. But I digress.
Speaker 1: I think you can run the ball in this game.
Speaker 1: Then if you get the right call against the right look,
Speaker 1: you can re we discover your explosive passing game that
Speaker 1: has been so sorely missed. Even if it's just once,
Speaker 1: it can change a game. Kenny Moore is back and
Speaker 1: he's awesome. He's in the slot, keeping on him. He
Speaker 1: also plays outside when they're in their base packages. Julian
Speaker 1: Blackman has been a good player for a long time,
Speaker 1: but he likes to play downhill and he plays in
Speaker 1: that single high role like I think his game is
Speaker 1: more tackling the hitting guys and then that's all safety
Speaker 1: knit Crossed knows. He leads them and stops beyond those
Speaker 1: two top linebackers Zaire Franklin and EJ.
Speaker 2: Speed. He's basically a third.
Speaker 1: Linebacker who comes downhill in those cover three looks like
Speaker 1: he's a hookbacker. And I think that you can get
Speaker 1: them creeping up too out of that structure by pushing
Speaker 1: the ball to the perimeter. Throw those comebacks, throw those
Speaker 1: hitches against outside soft coverage, and Huntley has probably a
Speaker 1: better arm to force those issues.
Speaker 2: So make that happen.
Speaker 1: Force him to come up and get into their cover
Speaker 1: one looks, and then take your shots because you're in
Speaker 1: cover one that means either Rieker Wallall is gonna get
Speaker 1: no safety help to their side.
Speaker 2: And the third thing.
Speaker 1: Is so basic. I'm told Bithack clean out operation. This
Speaker 1: one will be quick you're on the road, I expect
Speaker 1: it to be loud. I think as things stan, even
Speaker 1: with the lineup changes and struggles and the quarterback play,
Speaker 1: if you can just play a clean game, it'll go
Speaker 1: a lot longer to having you surpassed twenty points for
Speaker 1: the first time this entire season, which is horrible to say,
Speaker 1: especially when I think the recipe here is another strong
Speaker 1: rushing attack man. If we just stay out of those
Speaker 1: first and fifteens, in those second and twenties, I think
Speaker 1: we could control this game. Hopefully the byeweight cleans it up,
Speaker 1: because it has been worse this year than ever before,
Speaker 1: and it has to be better to win on the road,
Speaker 1: especially without two a tongue by Lowa. Some additional parts here.
Speaker 1: I didn't mention Layat two Lattu. He's not been good, guys.
Speaker 1: Thirteen pressures, one hundred and thirty pass rush reps has
Speaker 1: just one sack. He'll get there, but he's not winning
Speaker 1: one on one matchups right now. It's just a slow
Speaker 1: start for the rookie. I mentioned Quidy pay and Deo Adebengo,
Speaker 1: got that wrong. They're both guys that can kind of
Speaker 1: play off the edge in the running game, so have
Speaker 1: to find a way to get them moved. I did
Speaker 1: forget to mention Tave and Bryan in the defensive tackle
Speaker 1: portion because he's that forgettable. It's basically Raekwon Davis, and
Speaker 1: that's who Davis gives snaps to. So that's your competition
Speaker 1: on the inside. Two guys that were relatively high draft
Speaker 1: picks that have made like four plays in their career combined.
Speaker 1: Get after those guys. What's at stake kind of everything, right,
Speaker 1: I think the divisions out of reach already. Personally, I
Speaker 1: don't think we're good enough to beat Buffalo. I think
Speaker 1: we're gonna get split by them again. I think the
Speaker 1: Bills will eventually run away with things here in the
Speaker 1: AFC East, And if you fall behind the Colts by
Speaker 1: two games and the standings with the head to head loss,
Speaker 1: that could be tough to overcome, and the wild card
Speaker 1: standings and the Jets are reeling, the Bills are within reach.
Speaker 1: I still don't think it's doable, but from a wildcard
Speaker 1: standpoint a conference game against a middling team with a quarterback.
Speaker 1: With quarterback one for us on the horizon. I think
Speaker 1: this is sort of an inflection point game. A win
Speaker 1: here could change everything. A loss here, you're gonna get
Speaker 1: more of what Travis was the last couple weeks in
Speaker 1: the podcast. Win this one with really one of the
Speaker 1: next five games coming up as a tall order like Buffalo,
Speaker 1: because you have Arizona, the Rams, the Raiders, and the Patriots.
Speaker 1: Win this one, win four of those five. We're talking
Speaker 1: about a seven and four football team heading to Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2: It's doable.
Speaker 1: I don't expect it to happen, but just get us there,
Speaker 1: Give us that opportunity, give us your bones keys to victory.
Speaker 1: Number one, take the football away. Get three takeaways in
Speaker 1: this game, and that should do the trick. Number two,
Speaker 1: keep Richardson in the pocket. That's how you create takeaways.
Speaker 1: Don't hit him out of the pocket, keep him in there,
Speaker 1: beat him up that way. Number three, attack the perimeter
Speaker 1: of the Colts defense, run and pass game. Attack that
Speaker 1: soft coverage on the outside. Attack their inability to stop
Speaker 1: the run that way, force overplay, and then hit inside.
Speaker 1: My range of outcomes and prediction. I think it's very widespread.
Speaker 1: I think the Dolphins will win if both Buckner and
Speaker 1: JT are down. If both are or even one is up,
Speaker 1: I'm taking Indianapolis. I think it will be an ugly game.
Speaker 1: What else should we expect? I can't forecast Miami being
Speaker 1: anything but disjointed on offense in a road environment until
Speaker 1: they show us otherwise, and without QB one, you know,
Speaker 1: I'll say, if they get those guys back and Richardson
Speaker 1: finds a rhythm, this game will get ugly. So I
Speaker 1: think it could be an Indie blowout, but I think
Speaker 1: it could be a close Dolphins win. I think it
Speaker 1: lands somewhere in the middle there. And before my prediction here,
Speaker 1: injury report just came out. So man, the Colts dnps
Speaker 1: were Josh Downs, Ryan Kelly, Deo Odegnobo, I can't say it.
Speaker 1: Michael Pittman, Braden Smith, E J. Speed, and Jonathan Taylor
Speaker 1: all did not practice today. So Chris Lamon's on thore too.
Speaker 1: That's a fourth cornerback, So not looking good for them
Speaker 1: off the top. We'll see what Thursday's injury report looks like,
Speaker 1: but Wednesdays is very much in the Dolphins favor for Posterius.
Speaker 1: We do the Dolphins as well. Tarn and Campbell didn't practice. Holland, Moe,
Speaker 1: David Long, Ogbaugh and Poyer were limited, and then eight Chan,
Speaker 1: Cam Smith, and Skyler were all full participants. I think
Speaker 1: we'll get the takeaways. I think we'll make the same
Speaker 1: mistakes on offense. I think our run game will get
Speaker 1: us field goals. So I'll take a Colts win twenty
Speaker 1: to thirteen. But if both Buckner and JT are down,
Speaker 1: I'll go Dolphins seventeen sixteen. That's the Prediction podcast. That
Speaker 1: is my time today. Tomorrow, Moose Johnston and Kyle Krabs
Speaker 1: joined me for a loaded podcast. You don't want to
Speaker 1: miss that one. We'll have the recap show for you
Speaker 1: on Sunday as well as the postgame show, a set
Speaker 1: and juice. Plenty of content coming away. Hopefully this is
Speaker 1: the start of a nice winning streak for your Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 1: Until next time, you all, please be sure to subscribe
Speaker 1: to the podcast, leave us a rating.
Speaker 2: Leave us a review.
Speaker 1: You can follow me on social at winkfind NFL, follow
Speaker 1: the team at Miami Dolphins. Check out the fish Tank
Speaker 1: podcast with the aforementioned seth Levitt.
Speaker 2: And OJ McDuffie.
Speaker 1: Check out the YouTube channel for media availabilities Dolphins Today.
Speaker 1: I want to keep saying that Dolphins HQ It's my
Speaker 1: freaking show. Watch Dolphins HQ, not Dolphins Today and last, butt,
Speaker 1: not least, Miami Dolphins dot com until next time.
Speaker 2: Bin's up, Caroline Cameron, Daddy just coming home.