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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: It has been a doozy of a week and it

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Speaker 2: just keeps coming. Last evening, the indictment of James Comey

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Speaker 2: the very latest out of this White House, and I'll

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Speaker 2: let you know. The President has left town. He's up

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Speaker 2: at the Ryder Cup, but on his way out, he

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Speaker 2: was asked by reporters about this indictment of the former

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Speaker 2: FBI director, who you know, Donald Trump is not a

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Speaker 2: fan of. He's now being accused of lying to Congress

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Speaker 2: about Russian collusion in the twenty sixteen election. The President

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Speaker 2: was asked as he left the White House today, who's next?

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Speaker 3: Let's listen?

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Speaker 2: Not a list, but I think there'll be others.

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Speaker 4: I mean they're corrupt, these look corrup left democrats has

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Speaker 4: told me essentially, was it.

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Speaker 5: He's worse than a Democrat. They weaponized the justice to

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Speaker 5: copt like nobody in history. What they've done, is Sarah

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Speaker 5: book and so I would I hope there Frankly I

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Speaker 5: out there this is you can't let this happen.

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Speaker 6: To a guntree.

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Speaker 2: We're not going to figure out likely who's next in

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Speaker 2: this conversation. But Laura Davison is with us now Bloomberg's

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Speaker 2: Washington Deputy Bureau chief.

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Speaker 7: With more on this.

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Speaker 2: Laura, this is a remarkable moment. We're hearing the word unprecedented,

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Speaker 2: rubicon crossing. How should we look at this?

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Speaker 8: This is really just a massive escalation over the past

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Speaker 8: you know, several weeks, you know, we heard Trump, you know,

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Speaker 8: just about a week ago, you know, go to take

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Speaker 8: to social media and tell Pam BONDI, hey, I want

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Speaker 8: to see action on some of these cases. Through pressure

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Speaker 8: the prosecutor in the Eastern District of Virginia, you know,

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Speaker 8: steps aside. He a new person who's a Trump loyalist,

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Speaker 8: goes into this role, and you know, within a matter

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Speaker 8: of a couple of days, we see this indictment come out.

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Speaker 8: So there's a lot of questions because the two other

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Speaker 8: names he mentioned that he wanted to see investigations into

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Speaker 8: Adam Schiff, a senator from California, as well as Letitia

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Speaker 8: James of New York. You know, the question is, you know,

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Speaker 8: are there going to be indictments coming for them in

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Speaker 8: the next couple of days or weeks.

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Speaker 2: What does the Department of Justice make of this? There

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Speaker 2: are still some career officials at the DOJ. You've never

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Speaker 2: seen anything like this before, correct, This is you know.

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Speaker 6: Very unprecedented.

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Speaker 8: There's been a feeling really going back, you know, fifty

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Speaker 8: years or so that the Justice Department, you know, does

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Speaker 8: not it's not the personal you know, prosecutor ictorial arm

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Speaker 8: of the president. They work for the government, and that

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Speaker 8: there's sort of a little bit of church and state

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Speaker 8: separation there, so to speak. That is not at all

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Speaker 8: how Trump sees the Justice Department. And you see you know,

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Speaker 8: career folks, longtime staff, you know, across the Justice Department,

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Speaker 8: you know, either sort of you know, raising red flags

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Speaker 8: or stepping aside. And it's you know, clearly Pambondi views her,

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Speaker 8: you know, primary loyalty to Trump rather than to the

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Speaker 8: department itself.

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Speaker 2: There is not a warrant for his arrest, which is interesting.

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Speaker 2: We're not going to see him in handcuffs, I guess,

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Speaker 2: but there is an arraignment in October. Where does this

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Speaker 2: go from that he says he's going to fight.

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Speaker 8: He came out very quickly last night with it, with

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Speaker 8: a video saying, you know, he's not afraid.

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Speaker 6: You know, go ahead, let's have a trial. You know.

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Speaker 8: It's very reminiscent of what he said, you know, back

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Speaker 8: in twenty seventeen when when Trump fired him originally he said, Lordie,

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Speaker 8: I hope there are tapes when they were talking about

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Speaker 8: this conversation. So this is you know, Comy is not

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Speaker 8: one to step down, you know, in a fight. But

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Speaker 8: it's not clear right now. The indictment was very short,

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Speaker 8: it was not particularly specific, so some legal experts have

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Speaker 8: speculated that, you know, it's possible that this case could

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Speaker 8: be dismissed, you know, just that there's not enough evidence there.

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Speaker 2: To for interesting. And of course, you know, we're already

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Speaker 2: waiting for an emergency Supreme Court ruling on the firing

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Speaker 2: of Lisa Cook. He's keeping the courts awfully busy here.

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Speaker 2: And I'm assuming that they expected that Komy would want

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Speaker 2: to go to trial. So let's get the ball rolling.

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Speaker 8: Right, Yes, I mean, and this is you know, this

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Speaker 8: is also you know, Trump's playbook here. You know, he

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Speaker 8: wants to keep you know, some of these battles in

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Speaker 8: the spotlight. He wants to keep his base happy. This

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Speaker 8: has been, you know, a pretty good week for him

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Speaker 8: in terms of getting some of these eels TikTok done.

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Speaker 6: You know, he's at the Ryder Cup today. He's you know,

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Speaker 6: a couple of handful of booze, but also some cheers.

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Speaker 2: Is that crew? Did you see him get there? I

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Speaker 2: didn't see the arrival. He made it to the course.

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Speaker 8: He's there, he's with his He's with his granddaughter, Kai Trump.

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Speaker 8: She's sporting some her own fashion line today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, fashion line is nineteen years old or something. Is

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Speaker 2: this don Junior's this is oldest daughter.

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Speaker 8: But it's a real sort of split screen moment because

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Speaker 8: on Capitol Hill Hackeen Jefferies is up there talking about how,

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Speaker 8: you know, we're hurtling towards a shutdown deadline, you know,

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Speaker 8: just within a couple of days.

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Speaker 2: Well, so let's talk about a couple of other things here.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I already said this has been a dou

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Speaker 2: to you. I guess next week will be a real

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Speaker 2: doozy when the government shuts down. Are we just qualifying

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Speaker 2: this as inevitable now where it's Friday, there's no deal

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Speaker 2: and no one's talking.

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Speaker 6: No one's talking.

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Speaker 8: Congress has not been in session all week. The Senate's

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Speaker 8: not supposed to come back until till Monday. They may

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Speaker 8: not even start voting on things till Tuesday. The shutdown

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Speaker 8: deadline is, you know, Tuesday into Wednesday at midnight. Houses

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Speaker 8: not scheduled to be back until Wednesday. So this is,

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Speaker 8: you know, the key players are not even in place.

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Speaker 8: Both sides are really dug in. You know, Trump even

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Speaker 8: kind of shrugged off, you know, the sort of the

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Speaker 8: risk of a shutdown earlier today said if.

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Speaker 6: It shuts down, it shuts down those sides of really

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Speaker 6: angling for a fight.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's for sure. I mean the big question is

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Speaker 2: going to be how how long it's stays closed at

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Speaker 2: this point? Right, how do you get it back open?

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Speaker 2: And I know that's something that we'll be tossing around here.

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Speaker 2: Democrats at this point are united, Right, You're not hearing

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Speaker 2: about Democratic senators, say from Virginia or Maryland, who might

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Speaker 2: quietly be prepared to vote yes next week.

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Speaker 8: You're starting to see a little bit of commentary, you know,

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Speaker 8: Chris van Holland came out and said, hey, look, we'd

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Speaker 8: like to you know, kind of get some of these

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Speaker 8: talks started.

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Speaker 6: Tim Kaine as well. You know, you start to see

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Speaker 6: that the door opening here.

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Speaker 8: Klobashar, you know, was on a call with Amy Clobachar

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Speaker 8: of Minnesota was on a call with reporters this morning

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Speaker 8: saying that she wanted you know, she said, look, we're

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Speaker 8: not asking for all of our demands, but we are

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Speaker 8: you know, we're willing to negotiate here.

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Speaker 6: So you're starting to see a little bit of uneasiness.

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Speaker 8: You know.

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Speaker 6: It's also we're.

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Speaker 8: Four days out, five days out from a shutdown. It

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Speaker 8: was about the time that the side start to get

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Speaker 8: a little bit serious. But there's a lot that they

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Speaker 8: need to get through. And you've got Schumer and Jeffreys

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Speaker 8: who don't want to be seen as you know, just

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Speaker 8: really caving into Republicans as they did earlier this year

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Speaker 8: and really took a beating from the base.

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Speaker 2: Well, we got the countdown clocks up. You know, it's

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Speaker 2: never good when that happens, and we'll just have to

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Speaker 2: live through this together. Next week and Wednesday is when

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Speaker 2: we would be closed. Presumably. I haven't even mentioned tariffs.

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Speaker 2: I haven't mentioned TikTok. It's just a steady hose, a

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Speaker 2: fire hose of news from this White House. TikTok deal

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Speaker 2: not really a deal. We were talking to Matt Shetten

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Speaker 2: Helmett Bloomberg Intelligence. He says, by Dance still the primary owner,

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Speaker 2: this runs a foul of the law.

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Speaker 8: This is you know, I think the thing that both markets,

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Speaker 8: investors and sort of even just you know, app users

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Speaker 8: are asking of, you know, what does this mean? The

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Speaker 8: thing that Trump signed yesterday, that order just really sort

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Speaker 8: of keeps the process moving. It does not close the deal.

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Speaker 8: It does not finalize the deal. One of the things

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Speaker 8: that would really sort of shock people yesterday is when

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Speaker 8: Vance came out and said, hey, look we think that

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Speaker 8: the valuation of TikTok is going to be about fourteen billion.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: That caused a lot of you know, confusion because for

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Speaker 8: far cry we're anticipating somewhere, you know, thirty five, perhaps

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Speaker 8: size forty billion dollars. This was all kind of came

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Speaker 8: more clarity was put around that today when you know,

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Speaker 8: our tech team earlier reported than that bitte Dance would

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Speaker 8: still own about fifty fifty percent of the revenue share

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Speaker 8: essentially from.

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Speaker 2: The company now that's supposed to work.

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Speaker 8: This is not what people were expecting, and it means

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Speaker 8: that there's just a lot of details of this already

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Speaker 8: very complicated deal with dozens of investors involved that could

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Speaker 8: be quite complicated.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's always pleasure to spend some time here on

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Speaker 2: a Friday with Laura Davison. Good luck this weekend. I

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Speaker 2: hope it's not a working one. And I just said

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Speaker 2: that out loud, our deputy Bureau chief here in Washington,

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Speaker 2: d C. There's a lot more to talk about, by

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Speaker 2: the way, involving electoral politics today as we're spending time

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Speaker 2: here on Capitol Hill. Member of Congress is running for

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Speaker 2: governor in New Jersey, and there's a big story about

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Speaker 2: what's happening involving oppo research into Mikey Cheryl, the representative

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Speaker 2: Democratic representative from New Jersey. Washington Post now reporting that

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Speaker 2: she and leading Democrats are calling for an investigation now

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Speaker 2: what they call a politically motivated leak for unredacted military

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Speaker 2: service records. This is a pretty big deal. The National

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Speaker 2: Personnel Record Center improperly gave an ally of the Republican

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Speaker 2: in this race, Jack Chitdarelli, unredacted personal information about Mikey Cheryl,

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Speaker 2: including social Security numbers, the whole bit. It's being called

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Speaker 2: an egregious blunder, a technician's mistake, and we have big

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Speaker 2: questions about what's going to happen next. This is why

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Speaker 2: we assemble our political panel. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis

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Speaker 2: and Jeanie Shanzano are with us. Rick is, of course,

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Speaker 2: our Republican strategist and partner at Stone Core Capital, Genius

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Speaker 2: Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Just

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Speaker 2: to start off here, Rick as somebody who's run a

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Speaker 2: lot of campaigns, and I'm just going to assume you've

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Speaker 2: never dealt with any OPO research. How unusual is this

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Speaker 2: and what should Mikey Cheryl do about it?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 7: Look, I mean Apple research is a standard in the industry, right,

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Speaker 7: not only on your opponent, but also on your own candidate.

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Speaker 7: One of the first things you do is you say, look,

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Speaker 7: let's look at the records. I remember in nineteen ninety

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Speaker 7: nine with John McCain and we were pulling service records

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Speaker 7: and things like that just to see what our opponents

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Speaker 7: might find. And yet you have to have authorisations to

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Speaker 7: get this stuff right on a Foyer request. It's a

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Speaker 7: very limited amount of information that the Archives will give

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Speaker 7: you on a military service record, and certainly better redactions

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Speaker 7: and having your social security on every page that they

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Speaker 7: turned over to the Ciarelli campaign. Basically, So this is

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Speaker 7: a huge embarrassment for the agency that is charged with

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Speaker 7: managing our national archives. And it's happened before Don Bacon

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Speaker 7: had his service records released to his opponent. I mean,

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Speaker 7: like they need to get their act together. Regardless of

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Speaker 7: the requests that come in. We have to depend on

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Speaker 7: these institutions to do their part of the job, and

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Speaker 7: in this case, pretty clear failure.

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Speaker 2: Well, the House Oversight ranking member Robert Garcia, who may

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Speaker 2: not have the power to make this happen, is demanding

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Speaker 2: an investigation of what he calls illegal likely politically motivated disclosure.

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Speaker 2: This comes down to something that happened at the Naval

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Speaker 2: Academy in nineteen ninety four. Mikey Cheryl and a number

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Speaker 2: of her classmates were not allowed to walk in the

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Speaker 2: ceremony because of a big scandal. Was a cheating scandal

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Speaker 2: going on here that involved a number of students. If

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Speaker 2: this is again took place in nineteen ninety two, the

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Speaker 2: scandal itself, she would have walked. In ninety four, two

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Speaker 2: dozen classmates were expelled. Jeannie Cheryl says that she didn't

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Speaker 2: walk because she did not turn in any of her classmates,

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Speaker 2: that she in fact did not cheat on this test.

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Speaker 2: What is the political implication of this disclosure?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, first of all, I don't know why you're assuming

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Speaker 9: that Rick Davis hasn't done appule research.

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Speaker 6: Joe, we both know we have.

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Speaker 2: I've just did Okay, I know, I know, you know.

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Speaker 9: I think Number one, the timing of this could not

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Speaker 9: be worse for her campaign. I mean, the latest Emerson

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Speaker 9: I think it was the Emerson pol had them neck

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Speaker 9: and neck. And of course we all know that New

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Speaker 9: Jersey has been moving a bit over to the more

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Speaker 9: you know, I don't know what you want to call it,

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Speaker 9: reddish purplish side.

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Speaker 6: So this is going to be a big, big.

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Speaker 9: Loss for the Democrats if she doesn't retain this seat.

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Speaker 9: And I think you know, certainly you hear the Democrats

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Speaker 9: you mentioned Garcia, Jaqeen Jeffries. They want to get to

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Speaker 9: the bottom of this, they want an investigation. They may

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Speaker 9: get one. But the question is was this something that

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Speaker 9: was done by mistake as they are saying a technician

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Speaker 9: or was it truly done in order to undermine her

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Speaker 9: and the campaign? Regardless, the information released is very personal,

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Speaker 9: including social security numbers, phone numbers. I mean, the list

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Speaker 9: goes on and on, incredibly damaging and arguably a violation

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Speaker 9: of the Privacy Act. So whoever did it may indeed

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Speaker 9: be held accountable if then they conduct this investigation.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned the Emerson College poll, Genie. They did

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Speaker 2: this with the Hill and Picks eleven forty three to

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Speaker 2: forty three, Mikey, Cheryl Jack, Sidarelli eleven percent still undecided? Rick,

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Speaker 2: what's going on in New Jersey? You buy these numbers? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think it's a relatively close race.

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Speaker 7: Sorelli's well known candidates run before memory of legislature, and

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Speaker 7: so I'm not surprised that it's close. Remember it wasn't

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Speaker 7: that long ago, you know, we were electing you know,

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Speaker 7: Chris Christy to two terms as governor of New Jersey.

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Speaker 7: Republicans can compete statewide. It's not a red it's not

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Speaker 7: a blue state. But the bottom line on it is

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Speaker 7: is this will upset the apple cart. Right, There'll be

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Speaker 7: a disguise around this, and what is interesting is how

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Speaker 7: MIKEI Cheryl will handle it because obviously it brings to tension,

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Speaker 7: not just this cheating scannal, but her service in the

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Speaker 7: military helicopter pilot, you know, patriot. It's quite a contrast

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Speaker 7: with Sirellian. So I think one of these things you

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Speaker 7: have to always look at, like, well, can this boomerang

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Speaker 7: on us, right?

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Speaker 6: I mean, like an attack on her.

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Speaker 7: Time in the Naval academy rhinds everybody that you know,

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Speaker 7: she put public service first when she was, you know,

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Speaker 7: eighteen years old and served admirably in the military. So

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Speaker 7: at the end of the day, I'm not putting much

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Speaker 7: credibility into the outcome based on this controversy, because, of

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Speaker 7: course the other thing is it looks like political manipulation,

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Speaker 7: and Trump leaned in on it even in his comments.

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Speaker 7: So at the end of the day, it's going to

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Speaker 7: be a close race, and we're going to see whether

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Speaker 7: or not the Democratic machine in New Jersey is able

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Speaker 7: to get out the vote. I mean, it is interesting

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Speaker 7: that you basically the youth vot'es going Democratic and the

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Speaker 7: senior votes going Republican, and battles in between.

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Speaker 2: Well, Rick makes a good point here Genie, it reminds

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Speaker 2: us that Mikey Cheryl has used her military service as

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Speaker 2: a centerpiece of her kendidacy here, and that's why this

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Speaker 2: is a story to begin with. She did, we should note,

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Speaker 2: go on to serve in the Navy for nine years,

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Speaker 2: as Rick mentioned, helicopter pilot the academy. The Naval Academy

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Speaker 2: website lists her as a notable graduate. She received the

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Speaker 2: Navy Achievement Medal for saving the life of a fellow

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Speaker 2: shipmate while at the Academy and the prestigious Distinguished Public

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Speaker 2: Service Award in twenty twenty four. That's the Navy's highest

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Speaker 2: civilian honor. So if you're advising her campaign today, Genie,

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Speaker 2: do you tell her to get to the Academy right now,

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Speaker 2: go to Annapolis and film a new ad on campus. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: you might.

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Speaker 9: And I have to say I think she has done

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Speaker 9: a good job already because you read the quote. I mean,

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Speaker 9: what she is telling voters is the only reason that

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Speaker 9: I was kept out of the ceremony was because I

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Speaker 9: refuse to turn in my fellow classmates. In other words,

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Speaker 9: I am not somebody who is going to go and

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Speaker 9: you know, tell who was involved. I will keep that

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Speaker 9: to myself and for many people, particularly in New Jersey,

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Speaker 9: that is a very respectable reason to, you know, to

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Speaker 9: do that.

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Speaker 6: And so I think she has been trying already to

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Speaker 6: turn this around.

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Speaker 9: And she follows that by saying, to your point, I

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Speaker 9: served ten years highest level of distinction and honor. So

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Speaker 9: she is trying and her campaign is trying to use

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Speaker 9: this to her advantage. And she is no snitch, Joe Matthew,

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Speaker 9: and that's what she wants people.

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Speaker 2: You know, So you said it, so is that the

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Speaker 2: bumper sticker? Is that the bumper sticker?

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Speaker 8: Right?

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Speaker 2: You're running for governor New Jersey. Ay, I'm no snitch.

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Speaker 10: Okay, let's just be totally clear with our listening and

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Speaker 10: viewing audience. It is a violation of the Academy Ethics

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Speaker 10: Code that if you are all right, do not hurt

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Speaker 10: them in so regardless of the situational ethics of my

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Speaker 10: co pas, I know that's a particularly good campaign and focus.

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Speaker 2: All right, we covered some good ground here. See this

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Speaker 2: was productive. We just figured the whole thing out at

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Speaker 2: least what you can't do. Rick Davis, Thank you, GD Shanze, No,

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Speaker 2: thank you. Bloomberg Politics contributors and the best we have here.

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Speaker 2: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much

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Speaker 2: more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: flagship New York State and Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, reeling the city at large

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Speaker 2: over the indictment of James Comey, the former FBI director,

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Speaker 2: something we've been talking about quite a bit throughout the day.

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Speaker 2: Here he says he's not afraid bring the trial, and

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Speaker 2: we have a great opportunity to tap the experience and

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Speaker 2: insights of Keith Ellison. A perfect moment for this conversation,

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Speaker 2: of course. The former congressman now Attorney General in Minnesota

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Speaker 2: is in town for the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation events

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Speaker 2: that we have told you about stretching across the week,

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Speaker 2: and has just emerged from a fireside chat at the

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Speaker 2: Convention Center where he was joined by several other Democratic

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Speaker 2: attorneys general to talk about the rule of law in

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Speaker 2: this country. Mister Attorney General, it's great to have you.

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Speaker 2: I'm Bloomberg, welcome back.

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Speaker 3: Great to be with you.

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Speaker 2: Thank That's some heavy stuff to talk about today, and

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Speaker 2: I'm wondering your thoughts, just initially on this indictment. Have

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Speaker 2: you investigated the case? Does the government have a case

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Speaker 2: against him?

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Speaker 3: Apparently not.

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Speaker 11: It looks like the career prosecutors didn't sign the indictment.

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Speaker 11: It looks like this was obtained by the person who

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Speaker 11: was simply put in there.

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Speaker 3: By Trump to get the indictment.

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Speaker 11: So it's not something that is a result of investigation

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Speaker 11: by trained prosecutors looking for the truth. It has all

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Speaker 11: the hallmarks of just a vindictive prosecution. And I think

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Speaker 11: that it appears to me that if you believe the

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Speaker 11: people who actually dug into the case, that it's then

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Speaker 11: when it comes to evidence.

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Speaker 3: And I think mister Komi has every reason to be confident.

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Speaker 2: Remarkable posts on truth social by the President on Sunday evening.

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Speaker 2: Sure to Pam, you see this, Pam. We can't delay

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Speaker 2: any longer. It's killing our reputation and credibility. They impeached

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Speaker 2: me twice and indicted me five times over nothing. Justice

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Speaker 2: must be served now some folks are seeing this as

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Speaker 2: a I hate to keep using the cliche the rubicon

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Speaker 2: crossing moments for the Department of Justice, is that the

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Speaker 2: level of which you're viewing us.

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Speaker 3: It certainly feels that way.

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Speaker 11: I mean that, particularly truth social post, it looks like

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Speaker 11: pure revenge. It looks like we're simply using the Department

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Speaker 11: of Justice as a weapon of revenge against political opponents.

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Speaker 11: I mean, because I'm used to indictments that say, well,

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Speaker 11: on this time and place, you committed this act which

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Speaker 11: violated the criminal statute, not you did this to me,

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Speaker 11: so I'm going to do it something to you. This

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Speaker 11: is simply not how we do justice in America. It

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Speaker 11: is absurd, and of course it happens. And then within

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Speaker 11: a few days we see these indictments come out, so

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Speaker 11: you know, it does portend very, very, very you know,

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Speaker 11: odd for the future. A lot of people I think

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Speaker 11: are now thinking, Okay, well, if you're going to do

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Speaker 11: this to the head of the FBI, when other career

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Speaker 11: prosecutors have said that case lacks evidence, it should be declined,

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Speaker 11: who are you going to get next?

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Speaker 3: Who is safe here?

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Speaker 11: And because the head of the f I can't can't

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Speaker 11: expect basic justice than who really can in America?

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Speaker 2: Very concerning, you know, he's mentioned a couple of names. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: and was asked about this this morning. Is do they

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Speaker 2: asked him on his way out of the White House,

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Speaker 2: Who's next? And do you have a list? Listen to

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Speaker 2: what President Trump said just this morning, not a list,

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Speaker 2: but I think there'll be others.

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Speaker 4: I mean, they're corrupt, these these were corrupt, radical left democrats.

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Speaker 5: He's told me essentially, was it that he's worse than

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Speaker 5: a democrat? They weaponized him the justice to carpet like

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Speaker 5: nobody in history.

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Speaker 3: What they've done.

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Speaker 7: Is there book?

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Speaker 2: And so I would I hope they're Frankly, I hope

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Speaker 2: there are. This is you can't let this happen to

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Speaker 2: a country. You can't let this happen to a country.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't want to be Letitia James right now, wouldn't want

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Speaker 2: to be Adam Schiff? Are those the next two?

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Speaker 11: Well, if you go by what he says, you know,

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Speaker 11: I mean, the bottom line here is thatmo crawdit countries

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Speaker 11: don't operate this way.

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Speaker 3: This is what happens in Banana republics.

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Speaker 11: This is what happens in countries where the rule of

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Speaker 11: law is not observed, and that you know, essentially the

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Speaker 11: government is an instrument of somebody who is all powerful

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Speaker 11: and could just direct it wherever they want to. But

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Speaker 11: thank goodness, in America, we still have juries, we still

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Speaker 11: have judges, we still have the rule of law, we

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Speaker 11: have people who care about American justice. So I have

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Speaker 11: faith in the American justice system. I would have hoped

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Speaker 11: that there would be a no bill of indictment in

436
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Speaker 11: this matter. But of course, everybody knows you can die

437
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 11: to ham sandwich. We've all heard that before. But I

438
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,399
Speaker 11: think that when this matter starts working in the you know,

439
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:46,160
Speaker 11: real machinery of the criminal justice system, and motions start

440
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 11: getting filed, I have confidence that this matter is going

441
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 11: to be dispatched in fairly short order.

442
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 2: It is somewhat ironic that the guy who threw the

443
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 2: sandwich at the National Guard wasn't indicted, right, But I'm

444
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 2: just being I'm just kidding around here. If these guys

445
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 2: do go to try, though, James Comey says, let's do this, ye,

446
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 2: will they be vindicated?

447
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 3: From what I've seen, I think yes.

448
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 11: But I am also disturbed by another story going around,

449
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,479
Speaker 11: which has to do with the head of Homeland Security

450
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 11: mister Tom Holman, who apparently, according to news reports, exchanged

451
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 11: fifty thousand dollars with the promise of favors to get contracts.

452
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 3: That matter is of course still alleged.

453
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 2: Yes, I mean, he says that they found nothing illegal,

454
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 2: no wrongdoing. It didn't deny it though, which was interesting,

455
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 2: which is interesting.

456
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 3: But apparently there's video, and I think, you know, the

457
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:35,119
Speaker 3: public should see it.

458
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 11: You know, it should be something that if you did

459
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:39,639
Speaker 11: nothing wrong, that it shouldn't be any problem with you

460
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 11: released in the videotape and we can let it so

461
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 11: other people be the judge of that.

462
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 3: But I mean, the.

463
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 11: Problem is you can't, on the one hand, say that

464
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 11: we're going to just ignore this one because this person's

465
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 11: a political ally, and we're going to go after these

466
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 11: people because they're not. I mean, I'm not sure who

467
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 11: the person was, but somebody said, you know, to my

468
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 11: friends anything, but to my enemies the law, you know,

469
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 11: And so this, this is this can't be the basis

470
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 11: of an American democracy. We have to have a fair system.

471
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 11: This is what we've all been raised to expect. But

472
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 11: it's not what we're seeing right now, and it's deeply

473
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 11: disturbing and I tell you know, as a lawyer, you

474
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 11: know you swear an oath, you know, to uphold the law.

475
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 3: As a public official, you swear an oath. And these

476
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:30,160
Speaker 3: oaths are very important.

477
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 5: Right now.

478
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 11: I think that anybody who's going to carry a bar

479
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 11: card in their pocket needs to go back and remind themselves.

480
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:38,440
Speaker 3: What they said they would stood for.

481
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 2: Interesting, as we spend time with Minnesota's Attorney General, Keith Ellison,

482
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 2: I have to ask you about one of the other

483
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 2: big stories just in the last twenty four hours, this

484
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 2: deal to sell TikTok to a group of US investors. Now,

485
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 2: we have to be careful with this because we actually

486
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 2: haven't heard from the Chinese. The president says there is

487
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 2: a deal, and if we take him at his word here,

488
00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 2: it would not fulfill the law that's on the books

489
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 2: as byite Dance apparently would still have a majority share.

490
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 2: That aside. You're no stranger to TikTok. You just sued

491
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 2: the company two months ago, sure did over one.

492
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 11: Well, we suit them because we believe that the way

493
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,120
Speaker 11: that they operate is damaging to the health and mental

494
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 11: and emotional health of children. Uh, and we're concerned about

495
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,920
Speaker 11: a number of features you know the filters which we

496
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 11: believe have a damaging psychological impact on children, leading to

497
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:31,119
Speaker 11: believia self issues, depression, things like that. Also, we're concerned

498
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 11: about TikTok Live, where you can have a person go

499
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 11: on there and perform live and then receive a tip

500
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 11: and TikTok gets part of the.

501
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 3: Money if they don't have proper age verification.

502
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 11: You don't have to be very imaginative to wonder what

503
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 11: somebody would give a tip to a young girl for.

504
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 11: If you understand what I mean, it just seems like

505
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 11: an invitation to abuse.

506
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 6: Uh.

507
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 11: And then and then on top of that, there's this endless,

508
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 11: endless stream where you can just go on and on

509
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,879
Speaker 11: and on. It'll capture your imagination and you'll be stuck

510
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 11: in there. And teachers, parents have talked about the damaging

511
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 11: effect and.

512
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 3: How we've got to get a grip on it.

513
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:11,879
Speaker 11: So we know that they've designed their algorithm to be attractive,

514
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 11: and we consider it to be like digital nicotine. Yes, okay,

515
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 11: And so we're going to hold TikTok accountable whoever owns it.

516
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 2: You know, so I've been asked so that can transfer ownership.

517
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 2: My lawsuit goes to who owns the company.

518
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 3: Might just yeah, wow, I don't know who we're going

519
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 3: to be negotiating with.

520
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 2: You might be talking to Larry Ellison pretty soon.

521
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 11: Well, you know, I'll tell correlation, right, I'll tell cousin Larry,

522
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 11: he's gotta he's got to clean up his egg.

523
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 2: Well, you said something that's fascinating. You said like nicotine.

524
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 2: Your lawsuit refers to addictive algorithms, right, right, right, ten

525
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 2: years in the future, are we going to look back

526
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 2: at social media like we do cigarettes now, like we

527
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 2: do cars without seatbelts? How do we ever let this happen?

528
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 3: I really do think so. I mean, look as.

529
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 11: Technology moves at a faster pace than our rules do, right,

530
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 11: and they're there is a place for TikTok. We don't

531
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 11: want to ban TikTok. We're not here to shut down TikTok.

532
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 11: But just like any useful, but you know, susceptible to

533
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 11: abuse thing, we need to put the right guardrails around it.

534
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 11: And it would be better if they just if the

535
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 11: companies just did that. I do know that there are

536
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,639
Speaker 11: company there are rules that apply to Chinese users of

537
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,640
Speaker 11: TikTok that don't apply here in the US.

538
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,639
Speaker 3: So we already kind of know the better way to

539
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 3: use the tool, and that's what we have to move towards.

540
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 2: This is a fraught time for attorneys general. Yes, on

541
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 2: the state level, we've been busy, and boy you have

542
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:39,439
Speaker 2: been and we can talk about this in a lot

543
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,879
Speaker 2: of different ways, but I wanted the fireside chat that

544
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:45,679
Speaker 2: you held today sure focused in part on states' rights.

545
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 3: Yes.

546
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 2: Has the issue of states' rights turned from a conservative

547
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 2: one to a democratic, liberal, progressive cause?

548
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 3: I think it has.

549
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 2: You know, when did that happen six months ago?

550
00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 5: You know, it.

551
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 11: Turns out that the issue of states' rights, the tenth Amendment,

552
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 11: is an important right, although it's not an absolute right.

553
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,640
Speaker 11: And so one of my great heroes, a man named

554
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 11: Hubert At Humphrey, who was the mayor of Minneapolis of

555
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 11: the nineteen forties, went to the National Democratic Convention and said,

556
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 11: we have to walk out of the dark shadow of

557
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,640
Speaker 11: states rights into the bright sunshine of human rights.

558
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,439
Speaker 3: And that in many ways brought forth the.

559
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,399
Speaker 11: Civil rights revolution that followed in the years after that,

560
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,120
Speaker 11: and that we're trying to hang on to right now.

561
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 11: But you know, nowadays states rights, many of mgs are

562
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 11: asserting the tenth Amendment saying that, look, you know, this

563
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 11: is beyond the authority of the federal government to do.

564
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 11: One case that we just saw recently, we had a

565
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 11: favorable ruling and at lower court was where the federal

566
00:27:56,200 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 11: government said that if you want to receive federal emergency

567
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 11: management assistance, that you have to have your state law

568
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 11: enforcement essentially carry out federal immigration responsibilities. We said, no,

569
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 11: we have precious state resources, we don't have to do that.

570
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 11: And the court side it with us. And this is

571
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 11: a debate that's recurring. It's happened on a range of issues.

572
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 11: You know that when the federal government conditionalizes aid to states,

573
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 11: whether it be healthcare money or agricultural monies or whatever

574
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,360
Speaker 11: in exchange for or conditionalizing something like getting rid of diversity,

575
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 11: equity inclusion, or ice involvement, or it's a common and

576
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 11: recurring theme and we're relying on that tenth Amendment.

577
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 2: This is a big think part of the story and

578
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 2: I'm really glad that you could join us to talk

579
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 2: about it. Keith Ellison in town for the CBC. Minnesota's

580
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 2: attorney general, come see us again. I enjoy the conversation

581
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 2: or thank you, insights. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. This

582
00:28:58,280 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 2: is Bloomberg.

583
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch

584
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

585
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

586
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

587
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 1: flagship New York station.

588
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty Important news as

589
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 2: we've told you in the last twenty four to forty

590
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 2: eight hours involving the war in Ukraine. First, the word

591
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 2: from European Nations leaders, of course, gathered this week for

592
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 2: the United Nations General Assembly, and we've brought you conversations

593
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 2: with the leaders of Latvia, Finland, Estonia who have seen

594
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 2: their airspace violated by Russia repeatedly, not only drones but

595
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 2: fighter aircraft. And so the message to Russia, the message

596
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 2: through back channels to the Kremlin was we're prepared to

597
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 2: shoot you down next time this happens. The Kremlin responding,

598
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 2: and by the way, Donald Trump of course endorsed that,

599
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:05,959
Speaker 2: as we told you, the idea of shooting them down

600
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 2: as opposed to intercepting warnings that NATO countries would in

601
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 2: fact be ready to do this getting quite the rebuke

602
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 2: from the Kremlin. Spokesman Dmitri Peskov says, this is another

603
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 2: very significant escalation of tensions near our borders. We heard

604
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 2: from the Germans this morning on Bloomberg Germans. Germany's Foreign

605
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 2: minister Johann Yadaful had this to say about this idea.

606
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 12: They too, Germany, our countries do not have any interest

607
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 12: in escalation, but Russia perhaps wants to lead us into

608
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 12: a trap, as you mentioned, but Russia has to know

609
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 12: we are prepared for each and every situation.

610
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 2: He spoke with Vonnie Quinn, and it's a great pleasure

611
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 2: to bring Melinda Herring back into the conversation, non resident

612
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 2: senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, a reretreat

613
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 2: as well, to be to do this in person, Melinda,

614
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 2: It's great to see you your thoughts on this particular development,

615
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 2: and there have been a couple important ones this week.

616
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 2: Is this an inflection point in the war coming off

617
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 2: of that post from Donald Trump in which he suggested

618
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 2: Ukraine could actually win this in a word, yes.

619
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 6: Okay, okay. So in the last couple of weeks we've

620
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 6: seen NATO airspace be invaded by Russian drones and Russian

621
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 6: fighter pilots, and we see this in Hungary today. There's

622
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 6: accusations in Hungary, but I'll go straight to the quote

623
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 6: that you showed from Moscow. So Moscow is blaming They're

624
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 6: blaming the West Joe, which is kind of amusing because

625
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 6: they created the problem. They're saying that this is escalation

626
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 6: and that it's unacceptable, but they're the ones that caused it, right,

627
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 6: This is typical. This is what they do over and

628
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 6: over again.

629
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 2: We're no strangers to this. Our aircraft have been intercepting

630
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 2: Russian bombers over Alaska for the last forty years or something, right.

631
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 2: What was the aim here though? Was it an attempt

632
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 2: to divide NATO thinking Victor Orbon wouldn't have any part

633
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 2: of this conversation, or is it just Putin being putin?

634
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 6: I think Putin feels like he can get away with

635
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 6: it and there's no consequences, so he's I think this

636
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 6: is NATO country number four that he's sent either drones

637
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 6: or fighter pilots over in the last month, So we

638
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 6: see him upping the ante and he hasn't been He

639
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 6: hasn't really faced any consequences other than the Estonians. The

640
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 6: Estonians did escort those fish for Russian fighter jets out

641
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 6: out and they called a meeting at NATO and it

642
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 6: was the first time the Estonians had ever done it.

643
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 3: Amazing.

644
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 2: We talked to Estonia's foreign minister a couple of days

645
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 2: ago from the un knowing the visceral emotion that Estonians feel,

646
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 2: the memories they have of Russians rolling down the street

647
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 2: and literally shooting their then parents or grandparents, the occupation

648
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 2: that followed, they see that as being possible again, don't

649
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 2: they right?

650
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 6: They do. The history is alive, and history, I think

651
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 6: American since we tend to think of history as this

652
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 6: beautiful thing where it's constantly getting better, and that's not

653
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 6: the Eastern European view of history. The Eastern European view

654
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 6: of history is dark, Joe, and it wasn't that long ago,

655
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 6: and people have this lived memory. And you see the

656
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 6: same thing in Poland, right. You see rodk Sekorski's message

657
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 6: this week, and he's telling the Russians, We're going to

658
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 6: shoot anything down that you fly over our airspace. So

659
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 6: it's not even backroom deals. It is direct sign.

660
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 2: Yes, we're saying it out loud. So is that the

661
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 2: right move right now, what would happen if somebody shot

662
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 2: down a MiG thirty one? What would Putin do?

663
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 6: Nothing?

664
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 3: Really?

665
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 2: Yes, you're sure of that, because so then it's not

666
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 2: an escalation in this case, Well, it's a measured response.

667
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 6: This is a classic Russian textbook exercise. They are trying

668
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 6: to scare us. They have a weak hand right now

669
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 6: because Donald Trump has decided for many good reasons, and

670
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 6: I hope we'll get into that discussion that he supports Ukraine.

671
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 6: He is sick and tired of Vladimir Putin's lies. He

672
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 6: tries for six months, he didn't make any progress and negotiations,

673
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 6: and we saw today or we saw this week, that

674
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:09,760
Speaker 6: Trump is throwing in for Ukraine. So what happens? Dimitri

675
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 6: Midvedev starts talking about nuclear using nuclear threats again. We

676
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,359
Speaker 6: can I mean we're at Bloomberg. Can we can put

677
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 6: this on a graph anytime the Russian hand is weaker

678
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 6: than the resort to escalations.

679
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 2: I've already out there, or you're just remembering the last time.

680
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 6: It is a mathematical relationship. I'll draw it for you

681
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 6: next time.

682
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 2: I could very good. There is an equation here. Talk

683
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 2: to us more about what motivated Donald Trump, because you

684
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 2: know that the line in Washington is he's gonna talk

685
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:43,280
Speaker 2: about or believe in the message that came from whoever

686
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 2: talked to him.

687
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:44,080
Speaker 7: Last.

688
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 2: He talked to President Zelenski that day that he sent

689
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 2: that post. Did Zelenski somehow convinced him of this or

690
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 2: were there other voices in his ear?

691
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 6: There were other voices. So President Zelensky is a masterful communicator,

692
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 6: but it's it's not to give him full credit. So

693
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,800
Speaker 6: we've talked a lot about Donald Trump, and Donald Trump

694
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 6: is not ideological. He can swing back and forth, as

695
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 6: you well know, and that drives many people crazy and

696
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 6: it makes it good to be an analyst in Washington, Joe,

697
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 6: So to be serious for a minute, though, there are

698
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:20,439
Speaker 6: different voices within his administration. We see Keith Kellogg, General

699
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 6: Keith Kellogg, and he's a hawk, and he has Vladimir

700
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 6: Putin's number and he is talking to President Trump for regularly.

701
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 6: And then we see Jadie Vance and he has an

702
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 6: opposing view and he wants to make a deal and

703
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 6: he wants the war over as soon as possible. So

704
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 6: we see these two camps, but there's more people, right,

705
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,919
Speaker 6: This is a complicated situation. It's been going on for months.

706
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 6: The person we haven't talked about, and I think the

707
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 6: most influential person, and we're starting to see more and

708
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 6: more of her. Yes, her influence is Malania Trump.

709
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 3: How about that.

710
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 6: Milania Trump doesn't make much of herself in foreign policy matters, but.

711
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 2: Remember what she wrote about the children, right, yeah.

712
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 6: Right, Malania Trump knows what's going on. And we saw

713
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:01,919
Speaker 6: this earlier this year where she's talking to Donald Trump

714
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 6: about the bombings and we've seen a massive escalation of

715
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 6: Russian bombing of civilian targets, of hospitals, schools, children, churches.

716
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 6: Milania knows what's going on, and we saw Donald Trump

717
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 6: reveal this. But there's more to it.

718
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 9: Joe.

719
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 6: Her two best friends are Ukrainian American?

720
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 8: Is that right?

721
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:17,439
Speaker 1: Yeah?

722
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 2: This is fascinating. Look beyond the policymakers then or the

723
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:25,279
Speaker 2: officials at the DoD. It's what he hears when he

724
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,359
Speaker 2: goes upstairs to the residence at night.

725
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 3: I haven't heard that.

726
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,840
Speaker 6: It's a big piece. So we know that the Donald

727
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 6: Trump is Also, he's not the most moral man, I

728
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 6: think is the most polite way I can put it,

729
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 6: but he does have a moral conscience, and I think

730
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 6: that this issue of children resonates strongly with Millennia. Millenia

731
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 6: is traditional, She's an Eastern European woman and she's made

732
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 6: a lot out of being a mother Tibaron and that's

733
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 6: her priority, and she knows about this issue. More than

734
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 6: twenty thousand Ukrainian children have been abducted by Russia, and

735
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 6: we saw her write about it, and she's talking to

736
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 6: Trump about it, and I think that issue does like

737
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,280
Speaker 6: there is real residence there with both of the Trumps.

738
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 2: President Zelenski talked about a weapons system that he asked

739
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 2: President Trump for when they met one. He said that

740
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 2: could help to end the war, that would put Kremlin

741
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:17,680
Speaker 2: officials in bomb shelters.

742
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 3: Do we know what that is? That what the ask

743
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 3: was that he made.

744
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 6: We don't know what the system is, but I can

745
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 6: tell you there there are a couple of easy things

746
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:30,359
Speaker 6: that would in the war. If Washington said let's do it, yes,

747
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 6: I mean, bring some generals on here and they'll tell

748
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 6: you you have long range rockets. Long range rockets will

749
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 6: end this war. So you need to enable the Ukrainians

750
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 6: to strike behind enemy lines and hit command and control centers.

751
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,360
Speaker 6: It's a matter of logistics. If the Ukrainians had the

752
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 6: ability to hit they need German touruses, and they need

753
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 6: long range attackos, and they need the ability to hit

754
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 6: anywhere that they need the ability to hit into Russia.

755
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, Producer James just put a story in front of

756
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:00,359
Speaker 2: me here from Axios. This is since we came to air.

757
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 2: So Lensky asked President Trump during their meeting to provide

758
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 2: Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. Is that something we're prepared to.

759
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 6: That that would be a game changer, that would be

760
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 6: a shan So we don't know, So, Joe, I'm encouraged

761
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 6: by the news this week. If Trump has had a

762
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 6: major change, it's a major about face. The Ukrainians have

763
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 6: never had a better relationship with Trump than they do

764
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 6: at this moment, right. But Donald Trump didn't commit to

765
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 6: anything new. It's just a rhetorical change. And with Trump

766
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 6: it's always about the money. Is he going to commit

767
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 6: to more appropriations in Congress At this moment, there's no

768
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 6: signs that the Congress is going to be doing something more.

769
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 6: Tomahawk missiles would be a game changer, but also turning off,

770
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 6: there's restrictions on US weapons. So when we give key

771
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 6: of weapons, we give them rockets, We tell them you

772
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:50,800
Speaker 6: cannot strike into Russia. There are limitations. DoD needs to

773
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 6: remove those limitations. If DoD would remove those limitations, Trump

774
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 6: can pick up the phone and call hag Seth right

775
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 6: now and say let the Ukrainians strike into Russia and

776
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 6: hit the enemy lines. That would be a game changer.

777
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 6: But we also have to provide sufficient missiles as well.

778
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:09,760
Speaker 2: He's promised to not target civilians, which of course Vladimir

779
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,879
Speaker 2: Putin has And getting back to the conversation to talk

780
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 2: about children, what's the path for their return short of

781
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 2: a formal armist disagreement?

782
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 6: So the children are being returned right now. Joe, I

783
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 6: just got back from Kiev and there's an amazing one

784
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:25,879
Speaker 6: of my heroes. His name is Mikola Kalaba and he's

785
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 6: the CEO of Save Ukraine and his organization is a

786
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:33,399
Speaker 6: nonprofit based in Kiev, and they have helped save more

787
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 6: than six hundred children, and it is each path is different,

788
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 6: but they're able to contact the children once they've been

789
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:42,880
Speaker 6: abducted and working with relatives and very fearless people. This

790
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 6: is the underground railroad of the modern century and they're

791
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,240
Speaker 6: able to get these children home and rebuild their lives.

792
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 6: I would love to bring Micola in and have a

793
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 6: LoVa chat with Himim.

794
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 2: You've introduced us to some truly fascinating people from Ukraine.

795
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 2: Many of them have told such tragic stories here. They've

796
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:04,919
Speaker 2: been very emotional conversations. How much time did you spend

797
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 2: on a bomb shelter when you were there on this

798
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 2: last visit?

799
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,319
Speaker 6: So I was in Ukraine when General Kellogg was there,

800
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 6: and we talk about the Kellogg Shield, right, so they

801
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 6: know better. So when General Kellogg comes to Kiev, it's

802
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:19,320
Speaker 6: pretty it's not so bad. But I spent two of

803
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 6: four nights in the bomb shelter when I was there

804
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 6: last month.

805
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:23,799
Speaker 2: Two of four nights. This is still their reality, which

806
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:26,879
Speaker 2: is why Zelenski says this about the Kremlin. We want

807
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 2: them to know what it's like to be in a

808
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 2: bomb shelter every night. Will he accomplish that? Will he

809
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 2: get this weapons system he's asking for?

810
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:37,320
Speaker 6: I don't know. So this is when we have to

811
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 6: get in speculating about Trump's behavior.

812
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 2: That's right, and there's not much productive to be done

813
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 2: there short of the Tomahawks being delivered. Though, what is

814
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 2: the strategy for President Zelenski at the moment, short of

815
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 2: trying to occupy Russian land and even the playing field militarily,

816
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:00,439
Speaker 2: what's his next step?

817
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 6: Okay, let's talk about the front lines. So the front

818
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,720
Speaker 6: lines are not bad right now. The Ukrainians are holding

819
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 6: the line and there's a Russian offensive and ongoing Russian

820
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:12,320
Speaker 6: Russian offensive. The Russians are not making very much progress.

821
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:16,320
Speaker 6: The Ukrainians don't have enough men. They need more material

822
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 6: and the Europeans have committed to delivering that. They could

823
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:23,399
Speaker 6: use a lot more material from America, so we're looking

824
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 6: at Trump there to send more over, but so far

825
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 6: the lines are holding. The Russian offensive will start to

826
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 6: peter out around around Christmas time.

827
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,400
Speaker 2: We got the seasonal factory right right.

828
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,760
Speaker 6: We have mud, we have leaves. We've all become meteorologists.

829
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:43,120
Speaker 6: So at Christmas time the Russians have to reduce their

830
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:47,960
Speaker 6: their their air their groundcover because the leaves have fallen

831
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 6: and they won't be able to use their their aviation systems.

832
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 2: Fascinating, This remains a war of attrition.

833
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 6: It remains of a war of attrition, but the military

834
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 6: experts expect this war to continue on. So the criminalin

835
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 6: wants to see what it can get and it's going

836
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,839
Speaker 6: to continue. Mathematically, the Ukrainians could probably fight for another

837
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 6: eighteen months. There's a lot of ifs in there, but

838
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:12,800
Speaker 6: this war is going to continue.

839
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know when you're going back December, I want

840
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 2: to go to an answer. I would love to go

841
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:20,080
Speaker 2: there with the time. It would be remarkable to do

842
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 2: it with Melinda Herring. Are you kidding? Thank you so

843
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 2: much for the on the ground update as it were,

844
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:27,919
Speaker 2: and your insights. As always, Melinda Herring with us live

845
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:38,360
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

846
00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

847
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,799
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can fight

848
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

849
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.