WEBVTT - eff Hirsch on Why Big Federal Spending Plus Inflation = “Superbooms”

0:00:04.880 --> 0:00:09.600
<v Speaker 1>Ifiko boom boom boom boom boom boom boom boom ah

0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:13.480
<v Speaker 1>pies boom boom boom boom boom boom boom.

0:00:13.520 --> 0:00:17.160
<v Speaker 2>The newly elected president, even before he was sworn in,

0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:22.599
<v Speaker 2>threatened to take over Greenland, recapture the Panama Canal, and

0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:26.680
<v Speaker 2>to make Canada the fifty first state. I'm Barry Riddolts,

0:00:26.720 --> 0:00:29.600
<v Speaker 2>and on today's edition of At the Money, we're going

0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:34.520
<v Speaker 2>to discuss whether the saber rattling has implications for your portfolio.

0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:38.040
<v Speaker 2>To help us understand all of this and its implications

0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:41.800
<v Speaker 2>for your portfolio, let's bring in Jeff Hirsh, editor in

0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:45.920
<v Speaker 2>chief of Stock Trader's Almanac, an author of twenty eleven's

0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:49.519
<v Speaker 2>super Boom, Why the Dow Jones will hit thirty eight

0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:53.360
<v Speaker 2>eight twenty and how you can profit from it and

0:00:53.440 --> 0:00:56.800
<v Speaker 2>full disclosure. Jeff wrote a piece I want to say

0:00:56.840 --> 0:01:00.400
<v Speaker 2>it was like twenty ten, talking about the upcoming super

0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:04.840
<v Speaker 2>boom driven by the combination of war and inflation, and

0:01:04.959 --> 0:01:08.680
<v Speaker 2>basically said the data suggests we should hit thirty nine

0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:12.560
<v Speaker 2>thousand by twenty twenty five. And I called him out

0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:15.959
<v Speaker 2>on this nonsense. This is the single craziest thing I

0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:18.600
<v Speaker 2>had and by the time you and I finished that

0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:23.480
<v Speaker 2>conversation and you showed me that data was overwhelming. Not

0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:27.920
<v Speaker 2>only did I you convince me, but I wrote the

0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:30.039
<v Speaker 2>forward to that book that ended up coming out in

0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:35.840
<v Speaker 2>twenty eleven. So let's discuss what war plus inflation means.

0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:40.000
<v Speaker 2>In the late nineteen seventies, your dad very famously said

0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:44.040
<v Speaker 2>the combination of the Vietnam War and the oil embargo

0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:46.680
<v Speaker 2>driven inflation was going to lead to a five hundred

0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:50.200
<v Speaker 2>percent bull market, which kind of shocked everybody when he

0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:53.360
<v Speaker 2>came out with it. But that analysis turned out to

0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:56.560
<v Speaker 2>be exactly right. Explain the thinking behind this.

0:01:57.320 --> 0:01:59.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we've still got some of the old thirty four

0:01:59.200 --> 0:02:01.160
<v Speaker 1>to twenty T shirt. It's now thirty four to twenty

0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:04.520
<v Speaker 1>T shirts, But yeah, that's right. In seventy six, founder

0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:07.760
<v Speaker 1>of the Almanac, my late great father Yalehurst, discovered this

0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:12.519
<v Speaker 1>amazing perennial pattern and how this phenomenon is based upon

0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:16.360
<v Speaker 1>the exorbitant governance spending creates high inflation, and how the

0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:19.440
<v Speaker 1>subsequent decline of purchasing power of the dollar drives the

0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:24.000
<v Speaker 1>market to incredul this new heights. You yourself, you know,

0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:27.960
<v Speaker 1>were incredulous at the time. Cycles based on the previous

0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:31.240
<v Speaker 1>moves from from World War One, World War two, and Vietnam,

0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:35.080
<v Speaker 1>which is what Yale was keying on and the associated

0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:38.440
<v Speaker 1>massive government spending and the inflation caused by it.

0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:42.119
<v Speaker 2>And then the subsequent version that you were writing about

0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:48.440
<v Speaker 2>was Iraq and Afghanistan. And there was some surges of

0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:52.480
<v Speaker 2>inflation during the financial crisis kind of eased back when

0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:57.960
<v Speaker 2>when the FED took rates down to zero. Tell us

0:02:58.000 --> 0:02:59.720
<v Speaker 2>a little bit about what you were looking at in

0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:03.040
<v Speaker 2>ten that said, hey, we get to thirty nine thousand

0:03:03.040 --> 0:03:04.440
<v Speaker 2>in fifteen years.

0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:08.120
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I remember, you know what, I remember your actual post.

0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:11.280
<v Speaker 1>I think the headline was WTF.

0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:14.040
<v Speaker 2>That's right, that's right. We were about ten thousand on

0:03:14.120 --> 0:03:16.560
<v Speaker 2>the Dow at that time. You were calling for going

0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:20.239
<v Speaker 2>from ten to almost forty. It felt like it was ridiculous.

0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:25.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we had Yale's work behind us. That amazing

0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:27.240
<v Speaker 1>chart that that I redid of his where it shows

0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:29.760
<v Speaker 1>the you know, it's the log chart of the Dow

0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:32.360
<v Speaker 1>which shows the inflation, the CPI and the moves.

0:03:32.400 --> 0:03:34.600
<v Speaker 3>I mean, there's there was some you.

0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:37.080
<v Speaker 1>Know, people talk about these cycles with you know, the

0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:40.160
<v Speaker 1>seventeen and a half year, the eighteen year sixty What

0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:44.080
<v Speaker 1>did they talk about these sort of arbitrary lengths of time.

0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:47.040
<v Speaker 1>We looked at it, and what Yale discovered was that

0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:50.720
<v Speaker 1>these events in history that create these these cycles, like

0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:55.640
<v Speaker 1>Archduke Ferdinand getting assassinated in nineteen fourteen, the Germany sign

0:03:55.720 --> 0:03:58.680
<v Speaker 1>of the Armistice in twenty eighteen, the Gulf of Tonkin

0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:02.600
<v Speaker 1>resolution in sixty four, Saigon falling into seventy five, and

0:04:02.640 --> 0:04:05.200
<v Speaker 1>then for us currently, what we were seeing, what we

0:04:05.200 --> 0:04:08.400
<v Speaker 1>were seeing at twenty ten was this development of after

0:04:08.680 --> 0:04:12.280
<v Speaker 1>nine to eleven, which was an act of war, and

0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:14.160
<v Speaker 1>ahead of the time we were looking, we had already

0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:18.400
<v Speaker 1>gone into to Afghanistan. We were the whole saber rattling.

0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:20.479
<v Speaker 1>There was a bye bye vibe we put out in

0:04:20.600 --> 0:04:21.440
<v Speaker 1>twenty two when.

0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:22.800
<v Speaker 3>We in O two.

0:04:22.839 --> 0:04:25.720
<v Speaker 1>Excuse me when we went in there, But we were

0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:30.440
<v Speaker 1>looking for the end of this huge military involvement overseas.

0:04:31.000 --> 0:04:34.160
<v Speaker 1>US boots on the ground in massive numbers is what

0:04:34.320 --> 0:04:38.240
<v Speaker 1>created this pattern, or initially created it, and we were

0:04:38.279 --> 0:04:42.800
<v Speaker 1>looking for the end of the combat, you know, in Afghanistan,

0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:46.160
<v Speaker 1>to sort of spark the end of the war, end

0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:49.520
<v Speaker 1>of the secular bear market, and the beginning.

0:04:49.320 --> 0:04:51.839
<v Speaker 3>Of the of the boom, and I think we.

0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:55.120
<v Speaker 1>All kind of have looked back little heinsins around twenty thirteen.

0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:58.320
<v Speaker 1>I think that little bear market bottom in fifteen and

0:04:58.400 --> 0:05:01.960
<v Speaker 1>sixteen kind of you know, signifies the end of that

0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:05.200
<v Speaker 1>secular bear not the ultimate bottom. I mean, we don't

0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:09.880
<v Speaker 1>measure the secular bear market from seventy four to two thousand,

0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:10.720
<v Speaker 1>measure eighty two.

0:05:11.080 --> 0:05:13.520
<v Speaker 2>Right, that was the new highs that were set, and

0:05:14.200 --> 0:05:17.000
<v Speaker 2>arguably this cycle new heis was set in twenty thirteen

0:05:17.440 --> 0:05:22.320
<v Speaker 2>that eclipsed seven and two thousand. So I recall early

0:05:22.360 --> 0:05:27.119
<v Speaker 2>on in the COVID crisis and the first CARES Act,

0:05:27.360 --> 0:05:31.280
<v Speaker 2>and I read a fascinating analysis that pointed out the

0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:35.719
<v Speaker 2>fiscal stimulus of CARES Act one and two was about

0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:38.560
<v Speaker 2>ten percent of GDP. I think was just Kars Act

0:05:38.640 --> 0:05:42.080
<v Speaker 2>one about ten percent of GDP. You had to go

0:05:42.120 --> 0:05:44.360
<v Speaker 2>all the way back to World War II, and then

0:05:44.600 --> 0:05:48.000
<v Speaker 2>after that the Marshall Plan to see ten percent of

0:05:48.040 --> 0:05:53.520
<v Speaker 2>GDP as of fiscal stimulus, And I wonder how that

0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:57.840
<v Speaker 2>equates to the equivalent of war plus the obvious subsequent

0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:02.760
<v Speaker 2>inflation we experienced in one twenty three is the quote

0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:05.560
<v Speaker 2>unquote war on COVID very parallel to what we've seen

0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:06.440
<v Speaker 2>in the past.

0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:10.040
<v Speaker 1>One hundred percent very parallel and and that's something we've

0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:13.520
<v Speaker 1>spoken about. And it's it's really about overall federal spending.

0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:16.159
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the evolution of this pattern of federal spending.

0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:18.679
<v Speaker 1>It's not just war but spikes like you just mentioned

0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:21.839
<v Speaker 1>in federal spending like we had in COVID where it

0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:25.480
<v Speaker 1>goes above trend. I mean this probably started to change

0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:28.840
<v Speaker 1>a little bit going back to FDR with the New

0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:31.560
<v Speaker 1>Deal ahead of World War Two, and then the federal

0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:32.400
<v Speaker 1>highway you.

0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:34.159
<v Speaker 2>Know, spending the state highway system.

0:06:34.240 --> 0:06:39.320
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that continued after World War Two. So it's it's

0:06:39.320 --> 0:06:42.640
<v Speaker 1>really about you know, past federal spending driven by war

0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:47.640
<v Speaker 1>conflicts and you know, but spending outside of the normal

0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.760
<v Speaker 1>budget and COVID and the you know, Inflation Reduction Act,

0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:54.480
<v Speaker 1>the CARES Act are prime examples of massive government spending

0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:56.640
<v Speaker 1>driving inflation and superbooms.

0:06:57.200 --> 0:07:01.280
<v Speaker 2>So it's a new era, it's a new presidency. There

0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:07.320
<v Speaker 2>has been emphasis on things like military spending, energy production,

0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:13.640
<v Speaker 2>spacel like exploration. Uh, they're carrying over the previous emphasis

0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:17.640
<v Speaker 2>on AI and data center builds. How do you look

0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:20.960
<v Speaker 2>at that? How does federal policy and spending in those

0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:25.840
<v Speaker 2>areas seem parallel to pass military spendings. How does that

0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:27.560
<v Speaker 2>affect your projections?

0:07:27.960 --> 0:07:32.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean it's quite parallel, but it's part of my projections.

0:07:32.920 --> 0:07:35.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we've updated our super forecast. I think we've

0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:38.840
<v Speaker 1>got some further upside to you know, sixty two thousand

0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:41.600
<v Speaker 1>and change, which I've written about probably by you know,

0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:44.920
<v Speaker 1>average ten percent game of year, probably by twenty thirty.

0:07:45.960 --> 0:07:48.560
<v Speaker 1>And that's all now based because it was what starts on.

0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:51.120
<v Speaker 1>But right now, you know, it's about tech. It's all

0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:55.480
<v Speaker 1>about tech. Ukraine and Israel have shown us and proven

0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:58.160
<v Speaker 1>that the conflict is all about tech. Now, got drones

0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:02.320
<v Speaker 1>and cyber wars. You know, i'd expect the US military

0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:06.760
<v Speaker 1>to be spending and ramping up tech. So all that

0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:11.040
<v Speaker 1>military spending you may find its way into technology. I mean,

0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:12.640
<v Speaker 1>let's call it defense tech.

0:08:12.920 --> 0:08:16.680
<v Speaker 2>And you see that in companies like Pallenteer and Lockheed

0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:22.320
<v Speaker 2>not just drones but single jamming and there's just an endless.

0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:23.720
<v Speaker 3>Array of security.

0:08:23.960 --> 0:08:28.440
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's clearly causing a big boom and fiscal spending.

0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:36.200
<v Speaker 2>But let's bring this back to the newly elected president Trump. Canada, Greenland, Panama, Canada.

0:08:36.280 --> 0:08:40.520
<v Speaker 2>I keep I can't believe we're talking about Canada take off,

0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:45.040
<v Speaker 2>so that sort of saber rattling. Do you need a

0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:48.400
<v Speaker 2>hot war for the same thing to take effect or

0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:52.400
<v Speaker 2>do you just need the government's fiscal spending and the

0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:54.640
<v Speaker 2>threat of war to lead this to the same sort

0:08:54.640 --> 0:08:55.120
<v Speaker 2>of cycle.

0:08:56.280 --> 0:08:58.199
<v Speaker 1>I think it's not so much the threat of war.

0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:01.640
<v Speaker 1>It's overall federal spending and you know, saber rattling. Yet

0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:05.960
<v Speaker 1>it's saber rattling. You know, I'm not convinced anything is

0:09:06.000 --> 0:09:08.439
<v Speaker 1>going to happen there per se, But it's really about

0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:10.280
<v Speaker 1>the spending in general. And if we're going to be

0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:15.719
<v Speaker 1>doing deals with Greenland, UH for security and raw materials

0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:19.120
<v Speaker 1>that would be beneficial. We've got you know, China doing

0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:22.600
<v Speaker 1>deals in Africa and around the world. There's there's there's

0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:26.720
<v Speaker 1>definitely a new push for for global you know, security

0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:30.160
<v Speaker 1>and global dominance, and we've got to play in that field.

0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:33.080
<v Speaker 1>And and Trump's kind of showing doing a show of strength,

0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:36.440
<v Speaker 1>but he's a deal maker. Whether you know you like

0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:38.160
<v Speaker 1>the man or not, or voted for him or not,

0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:40.760
<v Speaker 1>He's going to try to do everything in his power

0:09:41.040 --> 0:09:44.640
<v Speaker 1>to leave a legacy, like we spoke about previously, of

0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:50.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, a prosperous economy, a raging bull market, and

0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, global peace and security is what he's going

0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:56.160
<v Speaker 1>to try to do, and that's going to help our economy.

0:09:56.720 --> 0:10:01.240
<v Speaker 1>All the spending, whether it's stargate or military otherwise, is

0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:06.439
<v Speaker 1>going to create jobs and keep the economy going. I mean, uh,

0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:08.880
<v Speaker 1>it's really all about the economy, is Jim Carvel likes

0:10:08.880 --> 0:10:09.480
<v Speaker 1>to say.

0:10:09.360 --> 0:10:11.880
<v Speaker 2>It's the economy stupid? Of course. So so let's look

0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:15.880
<v Speaker 2>at sectors. We've mentioned defense, what about energy? What about

0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:21.720
<v Speaker 2>consumer staples? Is there any specific sector effect to this

0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:24.959
<v Speaker 2>warplus inflation long term cycle.

0:10:25.200 --> 0:10:27.600
<v Speaker 3>I think it's tech. I really think it's too tech.

0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:33.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean you're talking about uh, you know, drones, robotics,

0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:37.600
<v Speaker 1>AI energy for sure, because we've got to power everything.

0:10:38.520 --> 0:10:44.240
<v Speaker 1>I actually currently have a position in the gas and energy. Uh,

0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:47.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, explorers and producers, the the equipment people there,

0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:50.199
<v Speaker 1>the x C S XOLE is the seasonal trading for

0:10:50.280 --> 0:10:50.839
<v Speaker 1>us as well.

0:10:51.200 --> 0:10:52.119
<v Speaker 3>I'm not sure.

0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:57.520
<v Speaker 1>Staples is the uh the place to be, but you know, uh,

0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:00.760
<v Speaker 1>general retail and buying a thing is up. But I

0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:04.560
<v Speaker 1>think energy and tech and all this new technology that

0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:08.240
<v Speaker 1>is that we're fighting wars with that we're operating everything

0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:09.560
<v Speaker 1>on is where it's at.

0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:12.240
<v Speaker 3>I mean, you got to own the cues basically.

0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:17.079
<v Speaker 2>Right the cues. There's a black rock ETF run by

0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:20.160
<v Speaker 2>the guy who's run their technology group for a long time.

0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:24.640
<v Speaker 2>I want to say it's their Artificial intelligence ETF. The

0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:28.160
<v Speaker 2>symbol is b AI, and I don't know, some crazy

0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:31.840
<v Speaker 2>chunk of it is in Nvidia, Microsoft and then everybody

0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:34.079
<v Speaker 2>else in that space. And it's sort of like a

0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:36.760
<v Speaker 2>cues on steroids. It's like two XQUS.

0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:38.520
<v Speaker 3>And then there's the healthcare AI.

0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:42.800
<v Speaker 1>We just heard you know, Allman and Ellison talking about it,

0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:44.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, in the White House with Trump there.

0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:46.320
<v Speaker 3>It's hopefully it'll help.

0:11:46.240 --> 0:11:50.079
<v Speaker 2>Us Sam Allman from Open AI and Larry Ellison from Oracle.

0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:54.119
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, how we could cure cancer and do disease analysis.

0:11:54.120 --> 0:11:57.640
<v Speaker 1>There's a small microcapstock I have that's trying to do

0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:02.040
<v Speaker 1>medical you know AI to better diagnose and get you

0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:05.000
<v Speaker 1>better proper treatments and identify things with all your numbers.

0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:05.240
<v Speaker 3>You know.

0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:08.880
<v Speaker 1>Medical data, as you know is still analog huge, but

0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:10.960
<v Speaker 1>it's not quite digitized enough yet.

0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:12.880
<v Speaker 3>So that's I think there's some future there.

0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:16.360
<v Speaker 1>So add that to the list of technologies is you

0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:18.280
<v Speaker 1>know medical and healthcare AI.

0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:22.400
<v Speaker 2>So to wrap up, we have a massive shift from

0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:27.559
<v Speaker 2>just monetary policy in the twenty tens following the financial

0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:32.120
<v Speaker 2>crisis to the COVID spend, the military build up, the

0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:36.440
<v Speaker 2>AI build up, the energy build up. These are all

0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:40.760
<v Speaker 2>policies and sectors of the economy that have been running

0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:44.480
<v Speaker 2>fairly hot for the past five or so years. The

0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:48.920
<v Speaker 2>new administration is expected to really supercharge this and if

0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:52.560
<v Speaker 2>historical patterns hold up, according to Jeff Hearst of This

0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:56.440
<v Speaker 2>Stock Trader's Almanac, we could see this market continuing to

0:12:56.600 --> 0:13:00.040
<v Speaker 2>rally for the rest of the decade, somewhere in the

0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:04.079
<v Speaker 2>high single digits, low double digits. If is that a

0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:06.040
<v Speaker 2>fair way to describe your perspective?

0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:07.000
<v Speaker 3>For sure?

0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:11.000
<v Speaker 1>Think about AI and all the related tech, about where

0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:13.160
<v Speaker 1>we were in like ninety two to ninety five with

0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:14.120
<v Speaker 1>Windows ninety.

0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:16.760
<v Speaker 2>Five, right, you know, early Internet days.

0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:18.160
<v Speaker 3>Early Internet days.

0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:21.720
<v Speaker 1>Look, my view is that we're kind of at that

0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:25.000
<v Speaker 1>period of time in this technological boom. I remember the

0:13:25.040 --> 0:13:27.360
<v Speaker 1>other part of the supermom equation that I added to it,

0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.960
<v Speaker 1>on top of warrant inflation and peace was the culturally

0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:34.920
<v Speaker 1>enabling paradigm shifting technology which AI and all of its

0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:37.920
<v Speaker 1>related ancillary items that we that we spoke about are

0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:39.920
<v Speaker 1>part of and I think we're at that, you know,

0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:42.760
<v Speaker 1>early mid nineties timeframe.

0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:46.319
<v Speaker 2>So to wrap up, if you're a long term investor

0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:50.160
<v Speaker 2>and you are constructive about both the economy and the market,

0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:53.679
<v Speaker 2>you should be looking at sectors like defense and energy

0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:58.040
<v Speaker 2>and technology, and you should not be surprised that the

0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:01.920
<v Speaker 2>current BOOL market might have a whole lot further to run.

0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:06.960
<v Speaker 2>I'm Barry Rittolts, and this is Bloomberg's at the Money