Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
Speaker 1: here's your host. Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. I'm Paul
Speaker 1: charchy In. My co host is Brian Johnson. Hello, Brien,
Speaker 1: You're gonna get a rare week off next week. Scott
Speaker 1: Fish expected to be in next week. Oh, I'm not invited.
Speaker 1: Uh New York invited. You can. I can have a
Speaker 1: day off Scott twice. I like Scott too. Scott's a
Speaker 1: little busy this time here. He's very busy this time
Speaker 1: a year, and we're excited, excited to have him as
Speaker 1: part of the show. We're going to break down the
Speaker 1: a f C West today with everything we believe is
Speaker 1: going to happen in season this year. We're not recapping
Speaker 1: what happened a lot offseason. We're not recapping what happened
Speaker 1: last year. This is a forward facing projections for this
Speaker 1: coming year for the teams in the a f C West.
Speaker 1: Before we jump into the most exciting team in football,
Speaker 1: the Kansas City chiefs Brian Let's mention. Gallanteam leagues dot
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Speaker 1: All right, Brian, let's jump into the Kansas City Chiefs,
Speaker 1: probably the offense that is most familiar too listeners already,
Speaker 1: because everybody wants to have a piece of the Chiefs
Speaker 1: on their team. There aren't really many pieces of the
Speaker 1: Chiefs to have though, for such an you think of
Speaker 1: like the Rams and the Kurt Warner days, there was
Speaker 1: Kurt and then Isaac Bruce, Tory hold Ozzihirakiim uh Marshall.
Speaker 1: You wanted, there was players that you wanted a piece of.
Speaker 1: Really for the Chiefs there's four, maybe even three and
Speaker 1: a half, three and a half guys. But uh, Kansas
Speaker 1: City solidation of power though that totally Kansas City coming
Speaker 1: off arguably one of the worst Super Bowl performances of
Speaker 1: all time last year. UH no changes at head coach
Speaker 1: uh Andy Reid or uh O c Eric the enemy
Speaker 1: of course. Uh first in yards per game last year
Speaker 1: four and fourteen per game, twenty one more yards than
Speaker 1: the next team. That's the significant tilta which was Green Bay,
Speaker 1: by the way, six in points per game. They passed
Speaker 1: the ball the fifth most among all NFL teams, nearly
Speaker 1: sixty three percent of the time. That means they did
Speaker 1: not run a lot. Uh in run play percentage was
Speaker 1: Kansas City. But let's just basically have to get to
Speaker 1: the big three and it starts with Travis Kelsey, who
Speaker 1: ADP of six. Now, yeah, six, deservedly been the number
Speaker 1: one Fantasy producing tight end in three straight years, clearly
Speaker 1: tight end one off the board. Last year he finished
Speaker 1: as a top three wide receiver. So there's not much
Speaker 1: nothing new I can really tell you about Travis Kelsey
Speaker 1: other than he's awesome. Um, there's we'll get to the
Speaker 1: riskiest player, and of course it's got to be one
Speaker 1: of the big three guysically, but we'll see if it's
Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey or not. But Kelsey, you're paying a premium
Speaker 1: right now. This is like buying doge coin at cents.
Speaker 1: It's right, You're you're, you're, you're paying for the upside
Speaker 1: we saw. He's got to live up to it. So
Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's a good pick or a bad pick. Uh,
Speaker 1: I'm on the fence there, but uh ADP six tighted one.
Speaker 1: Travis keill syats insane uh Tyreek Hill since June one,
Speaker 1: and you know, the more Aaron Rodgers rumblings we're getting
Speaker 1: out of Green Bay. Has you served Davante Adams and
Speaker 1: Stefon Diggs wide receiver one a DP of nine. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So I mean those are the two guys that Patrick
Speaker 1: Mahomes is thrown to it. And again I have Try Hills,
Speaker 1: my number one wide receiver, and a lot of people do.
Speaker 1: Now maybe he has the most risk among the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: but we'll find out soon. Um, I should mention at
Speaker 1: the end of each one of these we identify the
Speaker 1: player with the most risk versus ADP and the player
Speaker 1: with the most upside versus ADP. So that's coming at
Speaker 1: the end of each team. And uh, as for the
Speaker 1: other wide receivers, do you really want any piece of it? Uh?
Speaker 1: Sammy Watkins gone, of course, not like he was ever
Speaker 1: there except week one. He's a one superstar. Uh. DeMarcus
Speaker 1: Robinson his dust. It's really me Coole Hardman and Byron Pringle,
Speaker 1: and they're both almost free. Pringles certainly free. Mikole Hardman.
Speaker 1: Um going off the board and pick one sixty three,
Speaker 1: that's well past the twelve round. I'm I'm interested in
Speaker 1: both of those guys at what it costs to acquire them. Um.
Speaker 1: Pringle is a young guy with upside who could win
Speaker 1: the Sammy Watkins roll outright if they want to keep
Speaker 1: me Coole Hardman doing what he has been doing as
Speaker 1: the sort of gadget guy that he is. Yeah, well
Speaker 1: we'll h we'll touch on one of these towards the
Speaker 1: end of the chief. But no, no, no, no, I mean,
Speaker 1: clearly there's got to be some upside. It can't be
Speaker 1: the big three. Uh. And last, and certainly not least
Speaker 1: when it comes to the passing game. Patrick Mahomes h
Speaker 1: QB one off the board to no surprise overall ADP
Speaker 1: of thirty, So he's going mid third round right now.
Speaker 1: There's nothing I can tell you that you don't already
Speaker 1: know about Patrick Mahomes. Uh. We might see him run
Speaker 1: a little less this year, just to keep him healthier.
Speaker 1: He certainly has the ability to run. A better runner
Speaker 1: than I expected him to be coming into the league.
Speaker 1: Very mobile, he likes to hit the circle button. I
Speaker 1: like his spin maneuvers. But uh, the only question with
Speaker 1: Mahomes is are you going to take a quarterback that
Speaker 1: early in a ridiculously loaded quarterback class? And again depends
Speaker 1: how horror how far he falls. But I don't know
Speaker 1: if I'm reaching for mahomes this year, if I can
Speaker 1: get a top tier quarterback around or two later, or
Speaker 1: even four or five six rounds later. But uh, those
Speaker 1: are clearly the big three of the offense. Is gonna
Speaker 1: funnel through all them. If something were to happen do
Speaker 1: any of them, it drastically changes the landscape of the
Speaker 1: whole team. Um. But the last guy we got to
Speaker 1: talk about that, the half a player, hopefully he's more
Speaker 1: of a whole player this year is Clyde Edwards Layer
Speaker 1: c H. Right now going off the board at RB sixteen.
Speaker 1: It feels just about right to me. It's kind of
Speaker 1: like the last Uh, he's the last of the third
Speaker 1: tier of running backs outside of the elite guys. Right
Speaker 1: right after him, you get into like Josh Jacobs, Miles
Speaker 1: Sanders Territory. C H. Though arguably one of the biggest
Speaker 1: healthiest bus we saw his ADP soar into. I took
Speaker 1: him in a league at like pick seven overall last
Speaker 1: year once Damien Williams opted out and he was the
Speaker 1: lead back. Uh, he certainly did not live up to
Speaker 1: that a DP. He came out of the gates hot though. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you had a very exciting Week one game I remember,
Speaker 1: but uh just never gotta go and he was a
Speaker 1: little dinged up. But um, at RB sixteen, I'm buying
Speaker 1: at that price, He's not a dead cat. Runs behind
Speaker 1: a great old line ranks seventh by Pro Football Focus
Speaker 1: going into this season. And let's touch on that for
Speaker 1: just a second. You know, we we all A lot
Speaker 1: of people are going to remember the terrible Chief's offensive
Speaker 1: line from the Super Bowl, but this is a They
Speaker 1: did a great job of restocking this offensive line and
Speaker 1: making sure that Patrick Mahomes isn't going to suffer that
Speaker 1: indignity again. And Orlando Brown there now they get um,
Speaker 1: they get their doctor, Uh, Laurence Duvey tard if back
Speaker 1: and so he comes back. Joe Thuney's there. Um, Mike
Speaker 1: Rembers should not see the field, which is a critical
Speaker 1: distinction here, Uh, Kyle Long, I mean, I just this
Speaker 1: is a far far better offensive line than the one
Speaker 1: we saw in the Super Bowl, definitely, and UH would
Speaker 1: like to see Kansas City throw to their running backs
Speaker 1: more Chiefs backs total, the only seventies six catches last year.
Speaker 1: That was well in the bottom half of the league.
Speaker 1: And I will throw this out lastly, I do like
Speaker 1: Jerick McKinnon is a is a deep sleeper. He's not good.
Speaker 1: He's goods No, he isn't he's better than Darryl Williams,
Speaker 1: who's going well. I don't even know if that's true.
Speaker 1: I I disagree there. I don't mind Jerick McKinnon with
Speaker 1: the last pick a draft, especially if you're if you
Speaker 1: got on board he could. Vikings kicked him to the curb.
Speaker 1: Niners kicked him to the curb. He's you know, through
Speaker 1: injury and whatever else. He's just never lived up to
Speaker 1: the collegiate hike hype for Jerrick McKinnon. We will see
Speaker 1: about yet. Okay, the riskiest player I got, of course,
Speaker 1: it's got to be from one of the big three,
Speaker 1: and I'm going with Tyree Hill now going off the
Speaker 1: board as wide receiver. One. Yes, he was second in
Speaker 1: receiving touchdowns last year with fifteen, but seven it's pretty good.
Speaker 1: Seventh in yards though, and outside the top ten in receptions.
Speaker 1: In fact, Hill only had three yard games in the
Speaker 1: regular season last year. For reference, Calvin Ridley had eight,
Speaker 1: justin Jefferson, Stephon Digs, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams seven, Travis
Speaker 1: Kelsey had six. Yeah, and going down the line, Cole
Speaker 1: Beasley had five, Corey Davis had five yard games. I
Speaker 1: mean some of these names, they are not very Tyreek Killing.
Speaker 1: So yes, he can still live up to the wide
Speaker 1: receiver one eight, but I I would be a little
Speaker 1: more tempted to go running back, or if Travis Kelsey
Speaker 1: happened to still be on board, I could live with
Speaker 1: getting Davante Adams Stefan digs in the second round. And
Speaker 1: because it's either a Kelsey or a Tyree Kill game, yes,
Speaker 1: they both kind of go off. So let's say you're
Speaker 1: you're sitting at like pick five or six in the
Speaker 1: first round. Hill is there, Kelsey's there. I mean, you
Speaker 1: take the tight end differentiator. Kelsey finished as a better
Speaker 1: wide receiver Stetistically tree Kill last year. So that's that's
Speaker 1: my riskiest player. I'm certainly not saying don't draft side
Speaker 1: the upside. I'm going with it's one of the non
Speaker 1: Tyreek Kill wide receivers. And I'm going with Byron Pringle,
Speaker 1: who right now is getting drafted pick two thirty five.
Speaker 1: My Coole Hardman's going off the board at one sixty three,
Speaker 1: so Pringle essentially free. I'm just I'm just out on
Speaker 1: Hardman of gave him, given him chances. Everybody's been burned
Speaker 1: on the last two years. So yeah, maybe this is
Speaker 1: the year he finally pops off. But I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: take the free player in Pringle, who only played in
Speaker 1: Week five, six, eight, eleven, and seventeen. Last week only
Speaker 1: five games, was not much of a factor in the
Speaker 1: playoffs either, but when he when he was given playing time,
Speaker 1: he showed he could play. And a guy, if he
Speaker 1: gets eighty hundred targets, did you extrapolate the production his
Speaker 1: limited production, He's a six D seven hundred yard guy,
Speaker 1: six seven touchdowns as a floor, and if something were
Speaker 1: to happen to Tyree Hill, of course Hardman stock goes
Speaker 1: up to But with Pringles, I'm just gonna I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna take the cheapest guy. I'm I'm kinda with you
Speaker 1: on that. And uh, I was. I was the guy
Speaker 1: putting bets on Pringle in the playoffs, um including he was.
Speaker 1: There was a bet about there was a bet who
Speaker 1: would be the first Chief to catch a pass in
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, and Pringle was like thirty to one
Speaker 1: and we nailed it. He was the first. He was
Speaker 1: the first chief That is his only catch of the game.
Speaker 1: By the way, what's the first was the first catch
Speaker 1: of the game? Um, all right, let's let's move over
Speaker 1: to the Los Angeles Chargers. I feel like this Charger's
Speaker 1: offense is ready to explode and could easily see a
Speaker 1: massive uptick from last year's eighteenth ranking in points and
Speaker 1: tenth ranking in yards per game. The front office has
Speaker 1: wisely positioned the entire organization to maximize Justin Herbert, and
Speaker 1: I love it the air bear. New head coach Brandon
Speaker 1: Staley is a defensive guy, and new offensive coordinator Joe
Speaker 1: Lombardi will guide the offense. In addition to being Vince
Speaker 1: Lombardi's grandson, he was the Saints quarterback coach for the
Speaker 1: last five years. Brian, what's not to like about being
Speaker 1: the Saints having the Saints quarterback coach come in and
Speaker 1: work with Justin Herbert. You've just been working with Drew Breese,
Speaker 1: who's it was effectively coaching Joe Lombardi on what it's
Speaker 1: like to be a great quarterback and how to prepare
Speaker 1: like a great quarterback. I think Lombardi is a is
Speaker 1: well positioned to help make sure that Justin Herbert air
Speaker 1: Bear does everything possible to be great. YEA. Furthering Justin
Speaker 1: Herbert's cause was an offensive line that has been retooled
Speaker 1: and upgraded in so many ways. Four fifths of the
Speaker 1: line is new and all four are upgrades from the
Speaker 1: players who were there last year. The Charges spent a
Speaker 1: first round pick on athletic left tackle Rashaan Slater. At
Speaker 1: right tackle, Brian Bulaga returns after missing much of last
Speaker 1: year from injury, massive upgrade at center, where they signed
Speaker 1: Corey Lindsley from the Packers, and free agency. According to
Speaker 1: Pro Football Focus, he gave up seven pressures all of
Speaker 1: last year. That's it, and both guards are new and
Speaker 1: free agency. Matt Filer Feeler formerly of the Texans, is
Speaker 1: mostly just a guy, but he's not a liability. And
Speaker 1: oh day A Bushi formerly of the Jets, is coming
Speaker 1: off his best NFL season. He only allowed one sack
Speaker 1: last year. And those are your two new guards. This
Speaker 1: is a massively upgraded offensive line. Again. Chargers spent this
Speaker 1: offseason making sure Justin Herbert is in position to succeed,
Speaker 1: and I'm very excited for him after a record setting
Speaker 1: rookie season. I thought he demonstrated remarkable poise, arm strength,
Speaker 1: good accuracy, not a lead accuracy, but I think that'll
Speaker 1: come yet. And I'm not carving a bust In Canton
Speaker 1: from yet, but his rookie season suggests that kind of
Speaker 1: trajectory for him. Well, yeah, what was it like week
Speaker 1: three when Trod Taylor got two impaled by the team
Speaker 1: doctor And yeah, I remember, no one everyone saw a
Speaker 1: Herbert warming up and we're like, this kid's gonna get
Speaker 1: thrown to the wolves. He was against the Chiefs and
Speaker 1: they almost won, but he did not get the thrown
Speaker 1: to the Wolves. And he had no prepose the starter
Speaker 1: because you know, the injury went down ten minutes before kickoff,
Speaker 1: so you know, you find out ten minutes for kickoff,
Speaker 1: you need to go face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs
Speaker 1: and I I'm almost certain they went to overtime in
Speaker 1: that game. Game. Um, there's no reason to believe that
Speaker 1: Herbert will regress this year, and especially with all these
Speaker 1: other things that are happening. He's going off the board
Speaker 1: his quarterback six. I think that is an appropriate ranking
Speaker 1: for him. Let's talk about his wide outs. We're gonna
Speaker 1: get We're gonna spend more time on Keenan Allen in
Speaker 1: a few minutes, let's go over to Mike Williams. Unlike
Speaker 1: Keenan Allen, who blossomed under Justin Herbert, Williams remained on
Speaker 1: the same trajectory he had always been on, which is
Speaker 1: bad game, bad game, bad game, good game, bad game,
Speaker 1: bad game, good game, bad game, bad game, bad game,
Speaker 1: bad game, good game. He's really he makes some incredibly
Speaker 1: game last year. He makes some amazing catches though. I mean,
Speaker 1: the guy can play once a month. He's great once
Speaker 1: a month. He's in his meager four games with a
Speaker 1: touchdown last year. In those four games, he averaged a
Speaker 1: d twenty five touched sorry one point to five touchdowns
Speaker 1: and yards. Very good games. To talk about his other games,
Speaker 1: how about the other twelve games without a touchdown when
Speaker 1: he averaged thirty seven yards and no touchdown. He smoked
Speaker 1: your team in twelve games last year. That's Mike Williams.
Speaker 1: I think the way to go here the last pick
Speaker 1: of your draft. Emerging young wide receiver Tyron Johnson, now
Speaker 1: in his third year. He saw as U said, spike
Speaker 1: in December last year, when he averaged four catches, forty
Speaker 1: four yards and half a touchdown per game in December.
Speaker 1: That's almost exactly what Mike Williams put up in December.
Speaker 1: Johnson could beat out Williams outright and forced Williams into
Speaker 1: more of a passing down only rule. I think Johnson
Speaker 1: is a fascinating last pick of the draft. Jalen Guyton
Speaker 1: is the other receiver. He runs from the slot that
Speaker 1: puts him behind Keenan Allen, so he's dead to us
Speaker 1: until Alan gets hurt, which sometimes he does. Please don't
Speaker 1: you're starting tight end? Is Jared Cook taking over Hunter Henry.
Speaker 1: You know the drill on Cook by this point. He's
Speaker 1: a veteran journeyman on his sixth NFL team. That tells
Speaker 1: you plenty. I think Cook is startable only in tight
Speaker 1: end positive matchups. You pick him up off the waiver
Speaker 1: wire and you give him a go when you see
Speaker 1: a positive matchup. Otherwise you don't mess with them in
Speaker 1: deeper uh mostly dynasty leagues, especially tight end premium leagues,
Speaker 1: keep yourn on Donald Parham. People do like sleeper, long
Speaker 1: term sleeper. Let's go to the running back position. Austin
Speaker 1: Ekeler is going to be one of the most divisive
Speaker 1: fantasy players this year. Show. I love his all purpose
Speaker 1: skill set. Um, I think he's got a leap PPR upside.
Speaker 1: You know, last year we were we spent much of
Speaker 1: the summer pounding the table for Austin Nickler, and then
Speaker 1: he suffered that devastating hamstring injury where he lost eight games.
Speaker 1: But let's talk about what we did learn from uh
Speaker 1: the average day whopping six receptions per game last year.
Speaker 1: It's hard for a runner to flop when he's giving
Speaker 1: you six PPR points just on his receptions every game.
Speaker 1: And if he's averaging even like six yards per reception, okay, great,
Speaker 1: there's you know, there's ten points right there just on
Speaker 1: his receptions. In Eckler's nine healthy games last year, he
Speaker 1: scored or topped eighty seven total yards in seven of
Speaker 1: the nine games. So it wasn't like hyper splashy games.
Speaker 1: But he was very consistent producer in his nine healthy
Speaker 1: games last season. The only running backs I'm taking over
Speaker 1: as of right now, and in no particular order, McCaffrey, Cook, Henry.
Speaker 1: That's it for me. You know, I ze I got
Speaker 1: him at nine, so you've got him at like five.
Speaker 1: It sounds like, yeah, I'm very I'm very bullish on that. Uh,
Speaker 1: but let's mention this, Austin Nickler has never rushed for
Speaker 1: more than three touchdowns in a season, which is shocking,
Speaker 1: and some people reasonably want to see more carries than
Speaker 1: he gives you from a second round, late first round,
Speaker 1: early second round running back, you know that's a legit
Speaker 1: worry Eckler's backup in training camp is gonna be It's
Speaker 1: gonna be, uh something to watch. It'll be either Josh
Speaker 1: Kelly or Justin Jackson. And we don't know for sure yet.
Speaker 1: That's gonna be something to get sorted out in the preseason. Um,
Speaker 1: I don't either way. I'm not particularly interested yet. Those
Speaker 1: those rushing touchdown numbers aren't great. Of course, he hasn't
Speaker 1: really been given the chance to accumulate. No, he's not
Speaker 1: like he's a concern at the goal line either, because
Speaker 1: the dude is a beast. Yeah, he's built, So I'm
Speaker 1: not spilled. So let's go back to new offensive coordinator
Speaker 1: Joe Lombardi. He just got done seeing how Alvin Camaro
Speaker 1: was used. I've don't see you know, I think Eckler
Speaker 1: will be his Alvin Kimea. Yeah, he stays healthy, he's
Speaker 1: he's in line for a monster year. Of course, Herbert's
Speaker 1: gonna stay healthy and down the line with the offensive line.
Speaker 1: You may have forgotten this by the way Week one
Speaker 1: of last year Josh Kelly went berserk and then he
Speaker 1: did nothing the rest of the year. Um So, just
Speaker 1: you know, he's the second year back and he might
Speaker 1: he might be in line to be the backup. But
Speaker 1: either way, I think you'd probably just avoid both of
Speaker 1: those guys. All right, Let's talk about the riskiest Chargers
Speaker 1: player at his current ADP, and that's Mike Williams. Even
Speaker 1: though he's not his ADP is not very high. It's
Speaker 1: wide receiver fifty three in the round in round twelve,
Speaker 1: but I think he's in He's in danger to lose
Speaker 1: his job, as I mentioned earlier, and he's proven year
Speaker 1: over year to be one of the least predictable fantasy
Speaker 1: producers in the entire league. The player with the most
Speaker 1: upside compared to his ADP Keenan Allen. I told you
Speaker 1: we talked about him later here he is. He's going
Speaker 1: off the board his wide receiver nine in the third round.
Speaker 1: It feels like Keenan Allen's a hundred years old, but
Speaker 1: he's twenty nine, he's still right in the prime of
Speaker 1: his career. Obviously, he's an elite possession receiver. He's surged
Speaker 1: in the second half of the season as Herbert got better.
Speaker 1: Keenan Allen was just powering teams. In his last full
Speaker 1: seven games last year, he averaged eight catches, seventy one
Speaker 1: yards and a touchdown per game. If you put those
Speaker 1: seven games where Herbert was, you know, getting you know
Speaker 1: it was getting these first handful of games out of
Speaker 1: the way. So Herbert starting to click at the quarterback position.
Speaker 1: Alan's putting up those eight catches, seventy one yards and
Speaker 1: a touchdown per game. It translates into an eleven hundred
Speaker 1: yards sixteen touchdown season, which would have made Keenan Allen
Speaker 1: wide receiver three across a full season. Yeah, he's just
Speaker 1: got a He's had his injuries in the past. Certainly
Speaker 1: hasn't had Justin Herbert as his quarterback in the past.
Speaker 1: The time is now him is now for I mean,
Speaker 1: he's been putting up numbers for when he's on and
Speaker 1: he's healthy. He's got a quarterback like Herbert. Yeah, there
Speaker 1: is no style. The healthy is a concern, right, and
Speaker 1: some people are still bitter. Do you remember last year
Speaker 1: Keenan Allen tweeted to fantasy owners like, you know, go
Speaker 1: ahead and start me like that was bad, That was
Speaker 1: not cool, And he got the kick out of it too.
Speaker 1: I think that, you know, but fantasy owners can be assholes,
Speaker 1: and they've probably been jerks him on Twitter and other
Speaker 1: places and he probably exacted a little revenge. But still,
Speaker 1: NFL players, your salaries get paid by us. You can
Speaker 1: thank us for that. They're not nearly as high without
Speaker 1: the fantasy football community. We'll take a break and we
Speaker 1: come back. We're going to break down the Las Vegas
Speaker 1: Raiders and Denver Broncos as we go through the a
Speaker 1: f C West and identify our favorite and the least
Speaker 1: favorite players versus a DP and what we expect to
Speaker 1: happen over the course of this coming season. Welcome back
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchi and Brian Johnson with you. Well,
Speaker 1: you've got the Raiders, Brian, and that means the whole
Speaker 1: thing is gonna be about Darren Waller. Pretty much. The
Speaker 1: Raiders have two players inside the top of course, it's
Speaker 1: Waller and then Josh Jacobs, a d V of eight
Speaker 1: and then Kenyan Drake had on one. So let's just
Speaker 1: get the running game out of the way for the Raiders,
Speaker 1: who ran the ball the tenth highest amount last year
Speaker 1: of the time, top ten in rush play percentage. Uh,
Speaker 1: the O line is pretty much almost yeah, and I
Speaker 1: don't know that that's a good thing. No, it's it's
Speaker 1: it's Uh. It looks like a downgrade. Uh, pretty much
Speaker 1: across the board for the three starters they lost from
Speaker 1: last year. Pro Football Focus as in ranks their offensive
Speaker 1: line going into the season. They did draft left tackle
Speaker 1: Alex Leatherwood out of Alabama with the seventeenth overall pick,
Speaker 1: but he was viewed as a a reaching third Yeah,
Speaker 1: reached by most so. And then they bring it in
Speaker 1: Richie in Netto to share up that left side well,
Speaker 1: and in fairness, Incognito has been good, although injured when
Speaker 1: he plays, he's been good. Um. So yeah, but the
Speaker 1: line uh probably not going to be as good and
Speaker 1: it was pretty much mediocre at best last year, So
Speaker 1: nothing to get excited about there. The Raiders obviously brought
Speaker 1: in Kenyan Drake uh to form a pretty much a
Speaker 1: platoon at running back. It seems like the uninspiring Josh
Speaker 1: Jacobs shockingly last year UH Drake with the Cardinals. Of course,
Speaker 1: Uh Drake and Jacobs were tied with the most rush
Speaker 1: attempts inside the ten yard line with thirty five, and
Speaker 1: both recorded nine touchdowns. Somewhat effective, So good book. Trying
Speaker 1: to figure out that John Gruden coin flip on a
Speaker 1: weekend week out basis, I'm basically off of this running game,
Speaker 1: uh entirely. So either one needs to miss significant time
Speaker 1: to really clear up an opening for either Jacobs or Drake,
Speaker 1: and we'll probably talk about John Jacobs a little bit. Okay,
Speaker 1: all right, then I'm not going to drill down too
Speaker 1: much I tell Jacobs right now, but I'll say this.
Speaker 1: I mean, the fantasy community is down, not Jacobs so
Speaker 1: much so that I think he's starting to sound like
Speaker 1: value where he's getting drafted. But we're you know, he's
Speaker 1: he's starting to appear in the twenties in some people's
Speaker 1: rankings and it's clinging to the teens right now. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but we'll talk more about that man. Yeah, and then
Speaker 1: we won't talk too much about it either. As for
Speaker 1: the passing game, Uh, like you said, basically one guy,
Speaker 1: basically one guy in the whole team. And that's Darren
Speaker 1: Waller got red hot in Week eleven. Finished on a
Speaker 1: tear last year, averaging more than seven and a half
Speaker 1: catches and one hundred nine yards in his final seven
Speaker 1: games with five touchdowns. Extrapolate that over a full seven
Speaker 1: team game season. Now, yeah, that is catches eighteen hundred
Speaker 1: fifty three yards and twelve touchdowns. Or Darren Waller even
Speaker 1: the seventeen game extrapolite or I'm sorry, a sixteen game extrapolation.
Speaker 1: He's a top ten wide receiver going in the mid
Speaker 1: second is tight end to one of the guys who
Speaker 1: could user Travis Kelsey as the top tight end. He
Speaker 1: certainly has that potential. The passing game is gonna run
Speaker 1: through him. It's certainly not gonna run through Henry Ruggs
Speaker 1: or John Brown or Brian Edwards. Uh. The the quote
Speaker 1: unquote big three for the Raiders wide receivers has changed
Speaker 1: last year from last year. Nelson aguilargon we won't see
Speaker 1: a ton of a Jones, but uh, Las Vegas did
Speaker 1: not pass the ball lot and mentioned how they ran
Speaker 1: the tenth most times. Uh. The wide receivers finished as
Speaker 1: a unit thirty feet and catches twenty second yards and
Speaker 1: eighteenth and touchdowns with fourteen and of course that one
Speaker 1: Henry Rugs bomb against the Jets should not count count
Speaker 1: Greg Williams blunders. All that is so Yeah, nothing to
Speaker 1: get too excited about. With the wide receivers. I'm certainly
Speaker 1: not targeting Rugs even at tick one seventy gets like
Speaker 1: wide receiver fifty ish. Uh. There's one wide receiver I
Speaker 1: might draft, and we'll talk about him after we talk
Speaker 1: about Josh Jacobs again. Who's the riskiest raider based on
Speaker 1: a DP There's really only two guys that following. I
Speaker 1: love Darren Waller too much. I'm not going Darren Waller.
Speaker 1: Uh RB nineteen right now for Jacob's way too expensive
Speaker 1: for me. Even if no Kenyan Drake that might be
Speaker 1: a little too pricey for me. Uh. Jacob's very uninspiring.
Speaker 1: Uh watching him play ran frounder four yards per carry
Speaker 1: last year, only average more than four yards per carrying
Speaker 1: six games. Yeah, that's bad, and this offensive line's worse.
Speaker 1: I don't think the line's gonna give him more opportunity.
Speaker 1: It might be less. And despite being pretty effective in
Speaker 1: the red zone, Drake was equally as effective, and he's
Speaker 1: a better pass Catcher as well. So I am all
Speaker 1: out on Josh like he's on my you know, my
Speaker 1: my kill list. If if I can take a guy
Speaker 1: out of my draft pool, he's gone. He's like one
Speaker 1: of the first ones. And then for upside, Actually, I
Speaker 1: was gonna go Brian Edwards. He's there's some steam around
Speaker 1: around Edwards, a rookie last year, didn't get a ton
Speaker 1: of playing time. Um, but it's Derek Carr. Uh QB
Speaker 1: twenty six right now, that's ridiculous. He finished last year.
Speaker 1: It's like QB twelve in fantasy scoring. He's going after
Speaker 1: Trey Lance, Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, which I don't hate
Speaker 1: the Fitzpatrick going before him, But Derek Carr eighth most
Speaker 1: passing touchdowns last year with seven, despite finishing outside the
Speaker 1: top twelve in attempts. He also added three rushing touchdowns.
Speaker 1: The Raiders throw the ball more, they're gonna have to. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Like I said, we don't love the running game cars
Speaker 1: as basically, the last pick in your draft is a
Speaker 1: backup quarterback. He could return top twelve, top fifteen numbers
Speaker 1: quarterback position. So I'm going to differ with you on
Speaker 1: only one guy. Materially differ with you, Okay, and it's
Speaker 1: not even materially Henry Ruggs at wide receiver fifty whatever,
Speaker 1: there's so much upside. I mean, Darren Waller can't catch
Speaker 1: every touchdown. If you think Derek Carr is gonna find
Speaker 1: his way to just a middle of the road twenty
Speaker 1: five passing touchdowns, if half of them go to Waller,
Speaker 1: that still leaves twelve touchdowns to go someplace. Where are
Speaker 1: they gonna go? I mean Ruggs has gotta finish with
Speaker 1: like five six of those. One would think, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's just nobody else to catch a pass.
Speaker 1: So I feel like I feel like there's a chance there.
Speaker 1: And then you know, maybe it's John Brown is a
Speaker 1: seasoned veteran who maybe this year he stays healthy sixteen,
Speaker 1: he might be a good value there. Here's John Brown's
Speaker 1: the epitome of the best ball guy. Yeah, John Brown
Speaker 1: is a in like the Sean Jackson. He's in that ILK.
Speaker 1: But uh, the thing on Brown does I think we
Speaker 1: know what Brown is and the Bills knew what Brown
Speaker 1: was and they cut him, and I just think we know,
Speaker 1: we know he has Ruggs still has freaky upside athletically
Speaker 1: if he can pull the rest of it together, which
Speaker 1: obviously he was not close to doing last year. But
Speaker 1: they're all man. The NFL is littered with receivers who
Speaker 1: did nothing in year one, and we're way better in
Speaker 1: year two. I'm still I'm still in Brian Edwards. Fifty
Speaker 1: sixty picks later, only two or more targets in five
Speaker 1: games for Edwards, he looks like an alpha for it
Speaker 1: looks like an alpha, but only eleven catches in those
Speaker 1: on the season, but he did average a very impressive
Speaker 1: seven seventeen and a half yards were catch. Okay, it's
Speaker 1: not a sample size that works, though he had a
Speaker 1: lot of long catches. Let's move on to Denver offensive
Speaker 1: coordinator Pat Shermer's greatest success throughout his entire career probably
Speaker 1: as Minnesota's offensive coordinator, which he parlayed into then getting
Speaker 1: the Giant's head coaching job. And he's now teamed up
Speaker 1: with Minnesota's assistant general manager now his general manager in Denver,
Speaker 1: George Payton, and considering Minnesota's rent run heavy orientation, I
Speaker 1: don't think it was surprising that George Payton spent that
Speaker 1: second round pick on running back Javonte Williams, who's gonna
Speaker 1: be featured a lot, and which should be a run
Speaker 1: heavy attack that minimizes the quarterback position, whether it's Drew
Speaker 1: Lock or Teddy Bridgewater. And let's talk about that for
Speaker 1: a minute, because this might be the NFL's only true
Speaker 1: open competition in training camp is between these two. You know,
Speaker 1: there's like Trey Lance and Justin Fields, but you know
Speaker 1: their coaches are all saying those guys are on the
Speaker 1: slow boat, right, that there's no plans to start them early,
Speaker 1: and they might be honest about that. This is like
Speaker 1: the only openly acknowledged quarterback competition is the one in Denver.
Speaker 1: So what's interesting, though, is Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock
Speaker 1: are stylistically totally opposite guys. Teddy, as you already know,
Speaker 1: is a checkdown specialist who tries to minimize mistakes and
Speaker 1: can't make big plays. He's averaging almost exactly one touchdown
Speaker 1: past per game throughout his entire career with now several
Speaker 1: different teams. This is fourth team. One touchdown per game
Speaker 1: is embarrassing at the NFL level. That's Teddy Bridgewater. Then
Speaker 1: there's Drew Lock. Only Tom Brady average deeper passes last
Speaker 1: year than Drew Lock at nine point one intended air yards,
Speaker 1: and he was fifth in aggressiveness, a next gen stat
Speaker 1: that notes a willingness to throw into tight coverage. He
Speaker 1: is your yolo downfield. Don't care if you're covered, don't
Speaker 1: care the consequences, quarterback. This postgame comment from Locked from
Speaker 1: last season will forever live in my brain. When asked, uh,
Speaker 1: just in general about his bad plays, uh, he responded,
Speaker 1: quote half the time, right as the ball leaves my hands,
Speaker 1: I'm like, oh, no, love. At least he's that's great. Um,
Speaker 1: So I think we're rooting for Lock to win this job. Um.
Speaker 1: He did throw a league worst fifteen interceptions, which is
Speaker 1: highlighted by the quote you just gave us. Um, But
Speaker 1: you know what, I'll take it. I I we need
Speaker 1: somebody who can press downfield, and that's Drew Locked. Teddy
Speaker 1: Bridgewater throttles this whole offense, and that's why three teams
Speaker 1: have given up on Teddy Bridgewater. Now I will give
Speaker 1: Teddy this. I was shocked to see last year. You
Speaker 1: know he was with Carolina of course at Robbie Anderson,
Speaker 1: uh D J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, we're all like
Speaker 1: top twenty four wide receivers which you would not touchdowns
Speaker 1: last year. So yes, that is it is hard to believe. Um,
Speaker 1: let's go to the white outse Courtland Sutton returns after
Speaker 1: his last season with the a c L and mc L.
Speaker 1: And if you recall he got hurt in week one.
Speaker 1: He was going off. He was he had like catches already.
Speaker 1: Was it was, it was, it was a good game.
Speaker 1: We were, Um, we were awfully optimistic at this time
Speaker 1: last year. At this time last year, was going off
Speaker 1: the board as wide receiver sixteen. Right now he's wide
Speaker 1: receiver thirty two. We'll talk more about him later in
Speaker 1: the show. Uh. After being the fifteenth player taken in
Speaker 1: the draft, Jerry Judy disappointed us last year just three
Speaker 1: touchdowns and only three games with more than sixty eight yards.
Speaker 1: But all all signs point up he'll be better in
Speaker 1: your to the return of Courtland Sutton will help take
Speaker 1: coverage off of him. Um, and between Bridgewater Locked, there
Speaker 1: should be some kind of competent quarterbacking. Let's you know,
Speaker 1: either Lock gets better or at least you have Bridgewater
Speaker 1: for basic competency at the position. So I think Judy
Speaker 1: is probably pretty safe and they expect him to be
Speaker 1: better in year two. Your slop position guys kJ Hamler.
Speaker 1: And in the second half of last year he started
Speaker 1: getting twenty forty snaps a game, and so I think
Speaker 1: he walks into the starting role here. But he's squarely
Speaker 1: behind Judy and Sutton and Noah Fan in the pecking
Speaker 1: order for balls, and he feels like just a spot starter.
Speaker 1: And I wouldn't be surprised if they I don't know
Speaker 1: if Tim Patrick can run out of the slot, but
Speaker 1: if they, he does not run out of the slot.
Speaker 1: Patrick he was was Sutton out. You know, we did
Speaker 1: see some we saw some flashes, but he will need
Speaker 1: Judy or Sutton go down before we can count on
Speaker 1: Tim Patrick. So let's talk to a fan who might
Speaker 1: be the most divisive of player on this team for
Speaker 1: fantasy owners to figure out. He's a former first rounder
Speaker 1: who could be sitting on a breakout season. You might
Speaker 1: recall last year, the first three games of the year,
Speaker 1: Noah Fant was healthy. He scored twice in the three games,
Speaker 1: and he posted forty six yards, fifty seven yards and
Speaker 1: eighty three yards Noah Fan. Then he suffered an ankle injury,
Speaker 1: and he was never the same guy. They he missed
Speaker 1: a game, they played their bye week, and then he
Speaker 1: played hobbled the rest of the year and he just
Speaker 1: he was you seem limping with one you're dragging a
Speaker 1: leg behind him, and he scored one time the rest
Speaker 1: of the way. History is littered with first round tight
Speaker 1: ends who explode in year three. Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shocky,
Speaker 1: greg Olsen, Tyler Eifford, all did nothing, did very little
Speaker 1: until year three, and they blow up. This is year
Speaker 1: three for Noah Fan. He was on pace through those
Speaker 1: three healthy games. I year to be a monster. This
Speaker 1: could be the big breakout year for him. The questions
Speaker 1: are going to be quarterbacking and ball distribution. You know,
Speaker 1: if Sutton and Judy are both very good and they
Speaker 1: can be very good players, is there enough ball to
Speaker 1: go around to feed Noah fanse as well. Let's go
Speaker 1: to the running back position. One of the biggest storylines
Speaker 1: in all fantasy football is going to be the ball
Speaker 1: distribution and the contest between Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon.
Speaker 1: That's what we all want, and in fact, I want
Speaker 1: to talk about that. I mean Fantasy owners always want
Speaker 1: the rookie to get immedia playing time, but more often
Speaker 1: than not, it does not work out that way. To
Speaker 1: the desire of fantasy owners, were all, you know, we
Speaker 1: want to make the change immediately. Coaches are like, I
Speaker 1: want the guy in the backfield who can block a
Speaker 1: blitz and not get my quarterback killed. Now, you may
Speaker 1: recall Pat Shermer when he is head coach of the Giants,
Speaker 1: guided sa Kwon Barkley due to the one of the
Speaker 1: best rookie seasons of any running back ever. Barkley got
Speaker 1: twenty touches in year and sorry in week one of
Speaker 1: his rookie season. Then the next week he got twenty
Speaker 1: five touches, and the week after that he got twenty
Speaker 1: two touches. So you know, Shermer identified greatness in se
Speaker 1: Kwon Barkley and fed him the ball right away. Maybe
Speaker 1: he does that with Javonte Williams. Williams is powerful, he's elusive,
Speaker 1: a tackle breaker, a goal line back with nineteen touchdowns
Speaker 1: last year, and Brian the Broncos traded up to get
Speaker 1: Javonte Williams. They got their guy guy. I always feel
Speaker 1: like that's an intangible indicator of how much a team
Speaker 1: likes a guy. Definitely, I think Williams is going to
Speaker 1: get enough immediate work to be a flexworthy runner in
Speaker 1: September with a chance to rise up to like a
Speaker 1: seventy workload over Melvin Gordon over the course of the season.
Speaker 1: Probably won't happen as fast as we want, but Williams
Speaker 1: is pretty special now. Melvin Gordon wasn't bad last year,
Speaker 1: but he also wasn't good. He averaged four and a
Speaker 1: half yards per carry, but only point two yards over
Speaker 1: expectation per next Gen Stats, which puts him behind plotting
Speaker 1: runners like James Conner and DeVante Booker and Damien Harris
Speaker 1: and Wayne Goldman, and one would expect more from One
Speaker 1: would expect more. He scored nine touchdowns on the ground
Speaker 1: Gordon did, and so people I think might be they
Speaker 1: might feel like those nine touchdowns, you know, helped them
Speaker 1: last year. I just don't think Gordon is that good,
Speaker 1: and I don't think teams trade up to get to
Speaker 1: the top of the second round to take a running
Speaker 1: back if they don't really like him planned to use him.
Speaker 1: So who's the riskiest player at his current ADP? It's
Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon, Who's going after board his running back twenty seven.
Speaker 1: In the fifth round, He's going five spots ahead of
Speaker 1: Javonte Williams. I don't like it, um and then the
Speaker 1: air with the most upside compared to his current ADP,
Speaker 1: Courtland Sutton. He is going off the board as wide
Speaker 1: receiver thirty two after going off the board last year
Speaker 1: at this time as wide receiver sixteen, So literally a
Speaker 1: doubling of his a DP his sophomore year. You forget
Speaker 1: he hit eleven hundred yards as a sophomore with six
Speaker 1: touchdowns and then lost last year. Now in his fourth season,
Speaker 1: you figure he gets back to the eleven hundred yards
Speaker 1: and maybe do bet and could easily do better than
Speaker 1: the six touchdowns. Obviously, has reconstructed me as a concern,
Speaker 1: but he's been running on that knee since March, and
Speaker 1: coach Vic Fangio says he does not expect him to
Speaker 1: start the season on the pup list, inferring he's gonna
Speaker 1: be ready by week one. He's gonna participat in training camp,
Speaker 1: so a year removed from injury by then, I'll be
Speaker 1: good to go. Absolutely. Thank you for listening to Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly. We encourage you to check out all of
Speaker 1: my play rankings available at Gillotine leagues dot com. And
Speaker 1: how about it playing in a guillotine league while you're there.
Speaker 1: It's the funnest for just way to play fantasy football.
Speaker 1: We should, Uh, maybe I have like a listeners league
Speaker 1: where we can invite some people compete against us. You
Speaker 1: want to coordinate that. Maybe I'll ask Matt to do it.
Speaker 1: Maybe I will if we get a little interest in it.
Speaker 1: Let's see a little feedback on Twitter about it. Yeah, alright,
Speaker 1: so use uh, let's use a hashtag. Um, let's get
Speaker 1: my hashtag for this. How about hashtag m M guacamole,
Speaker 1: hashtag guacamole. If we get eighteen people who hashtag guacamole, well,
Speaker 1: other people are gonna just hashtag walk. You gotta say
Speaker 1: like f f W guacamole or something like that. Well,
Speaker 1: you don't you think it's gonna be a lot of
Speaker 1: Well they'll at one of us when they do it
Speaker 1: at b T X J or at Paul Chargi and
Speaker 1: with a hashtag guacamole or f W guacamole if you
Speaker 1: feel so inclined, And then we'll if we get eighteen people,
Speaker 1: let's do it, right, Thank you for listening, everybody. We'll
Speaker 1: be back next week. I uh, first, you know what,
Speaker 1: I don't know what division we're doing next week, get it? Yeah,
Speaker 1: we wrapped the a f C. Yeah, wrapped the a
Speaker 1: f C. We'll talk through one of the NFC that
Speaker 1: the sun rises in the east. I'm I feel pretty
Speaker 1: good about that happening. Thanks everybody, talk to you in
Speaker 1: a week. Bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production
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