WEBVTT - The Outlook for Reopening 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.720 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.320 Jason Kelley. We're right here every day bringing you the 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.160 latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.280 all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors. 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.439 And of course Carol that's part of a team of 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:20.439 twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.240 and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:26.239 Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:28.640 also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.560 on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:37.080 by searching Bloomberg Global News. Let's get into the virus. 0:00:37.479 --> 0:00:40.440 We're so glad to have back with us. Dr Masha Adalga. 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:43.720 He is infectious disease physician at John's Hopkins Center for 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:46.360 Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health. On 0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:49.840 the phone from Pittsburgh and of course the Bloomberg School 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:52.199 of Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of 0:00:52.240 --> 0:00:55.880 Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Radio. I'm Dr Adalge. Nice to 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:58.320 have you back with us. I gotta ask you something 0:00:58.320 --> 0:00:59.920 I want to jump to something that are Mike make 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:03.880 Key did an interview with um I believe it was 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:07.800 the head of the Dallas FED, and they said he said, specifically, 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:11.840 we need a Manhattan Project, a federal initiative of testing 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:15.240 and tracing in order to really get control of this virus. 0:01:15.600 --> 0:01:19.480 Is that true? It is definitely true that we have 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:23.240 to have testing and tracing basically as close to perfect 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:25.160 as we can, because that's what's going to give people 0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:28.559 confidence to go about their lives knowing that that they're 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:30.680 going to be cases out there, but those cases are 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:32.920 going to be handled appropriately. They're going to be found, 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:35.160 they're going to their contacts are going to be traced, 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:38.039 and we're not going to allow chains of transmission to 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:40.960 go undetected and then still into our hospitals and create 0:01:41.000 --> 0:01:43.679 havoc like they did in New York earlier. So this 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:45.920 is something that needs to be done in every state 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:47.920 as we move forward in the air of the pandemic 0:01:49.240 --> 0:01:51.840 and so Dr Dolls, what do we know about reopening 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:54.200 so far? What have we learned as we look across 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:59.000 the country, what's working? What should we be worried about 0:01:59.200 --> 0:02:03.080 or is it too soon to tell? We know that 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:05.960 reopening just because that's going to allow people to socially 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:08.720 interact will cause more cases to occur, and some of 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:11.880 those cases will end up hospitalized. The key has always 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:14.120 been about making sure that those cases stay to a 0:02:14.200 --> 0:02:17.560 level that's manageable by hospital. The virus isn't going anywhere, 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:21.160 and right now we haven't seen anything alarming. There are 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:22.960 places where cases are going up, and we know that 0:02:22.960 --> 0:02:24.920 that's going to be the case. We haven't heard about 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:28.120 any hospitals running into a problem where they are unable 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:31.480 to perform their other operations or or other types or 0:02:31.560 --> 0:02:34.919 having strains on their personal protective equipment or mechanical ventilators. 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:37.240 So everything looks good so far. This is something we 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:39.680 have to constantly be vigilant about them and continually look 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:42.520 at and titrate our response in terms of what social 0:02:42.560 --> 0:02:45.000 distancing can be removed based on what's going on in 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:47.440 the hospital. So so far, so good, But I think 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:49.280 this is going to be something we have to eternally 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:51.720 watched while this virus is around. What do you make 0:02:51.760 --> 0:02:56.080 of so far the pursuit of a vaccine. This is 0:02:56.120 --> 0:02:58.679 really something that is going at a very very fast pace, 0:02:58.760 --> 0:03:01.880 faster than we've ever seen but four. We have multiple 0:03:01.919 --> 0:03:04.600 candidates in phase one and phase two clinical trials using 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:07.960 innovative technology that wasn't available even a decade ago. But 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:10.120 it's important to remember that even though we're going as 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:12.920 fast as we possibly can, vaccine development is something that 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:16.240 is measured in years, uh not necessarily in months. And 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:19.040 I don't think it's a good idea to wet ourselves 0:03:19.040 --> 0:03:21.000 to some exact date when we think that we're going 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:23.640 to have a vaccine, because everything has to go perfect. 0:03:23.680 --> 0:03:25.919 We're just in phase one clinical trials for the most part, 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:28.520 and we need to get more people studied. We need 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:31.080 to understand all of the side effect profiles because remember 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:33.360 we're going to be vaccinating the entire country or the 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:35.080 even the entire world, and we want to know even 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:36.720 small side effects. And we have to think about the 0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:38.880 supply chain of things that are simple, like just the 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:40.800 glass bials that you keep the vaccine, and we have 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:42.240 to make sure that all of that is put into 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:44.560 place because this is going to be an industrial scale 0:03:44.640 --> 0:03:48.440 scale vaccine endeavor like we've never seen before. How does 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:51.160 making it a global effort though that with everybody focused 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:54.440 on it, helped to reduce the timetable. As you said, 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:55.960 we've got you know, there's certain things you just got 0:03:55.960 --> 0:03:58.200 to have in place. But I do wonder, with everyone 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:02.119 so focused on it, is it do something to that timetable. 0:04:02.480 --> 0:04:04.600 As you said, it usually happens in years, not months. 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:08.440 But because of this concentrated and coordinated effort, at least 0:04:08.440 --> 0:04:10.760 just certainly feels that way. Does that mean we can 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:14.960 expect it to be done much more quickly? I do 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:16.800 think we will get a vaccine on a quicker pace 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.280 than than we've seen with prior endeavors to make a 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:21.440 vaccine on the fly. And I do think that the 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:24.480 global energy behind us, the fact that we've got multiple 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:27.680 companies in multiple different countries all working on it, will 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:30.839 help everybody learn from each other and see what's working, 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:34.080 what isn't working. And you have individuals like Bill Gates 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:37.560 talking about building factories ahead of time for different candidate vaccines. 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:39.800 All of that is going to probably make this the 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:42.760 fastest time we get to a vaccine, and and certainly 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:45.080 true that we've gotten to a vaccine candidate much faster 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:47.760 than we have in the past putting things into get 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:49.560 into phase one clinical trial. So I just don't want 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:51.320 people to be over to get I don't want over 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:54.039 promise or be overly optimistic, but everything is looking good. 0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:56.320 But I think we're going to have probably a period 0:04:56.360 --> 0:04:59.680 of eighteen months two years or so before the population 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:02.080 is eacinated. We may get smaller batches before that for 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:06.839 healthcare workers or high risk individuals. Interesting, so, when you 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:09.800 think about sort of the other two pieces of the 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:14.240 medical stool here, and we've all come to learn things 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:16.800 that you know better than anybody else around. You know, 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:20.040 we talked about vaccine, but also when it comes to therapeutics, 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:22.880 and when it comes to the antibody test, where are 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:27.760 we on those other two elements? Well? When so, the 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:29.919 antibody testing is something that's been rolled out kind of 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:32.120 in a staggered fashion, and you're starting to get more 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:36.440 information that there are better kids out there. Some of 0:05:36.480 --> 0:05:39.120 the national lab chains like Question Lab Corps have developed 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:41.880 prology tests that they're using as well. And the roach 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:43.839 test is very good. There are some there that have 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:46.039 a high rate of false positives meaning you don't really 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:47.840 have you didn't really have the infection, but it's still 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:50.880 reading positive that we have to be careful about making 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:53.000 sure that people don't use those types of testament that 0:05:53.000 --> 0:05:56.200 they're using, the high validated, highly validated one when it 0:05:56.240 --> 0:05:58.520 comes to therapeutics, I do think we're in a better 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:00.400 position than we were, just even if you months ago, 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:02.840 there had been some positive views about ramdes Sevier, which 0:06:02.880 --> 0:06:06.279 is an experimental anti viral which received emergency use authorization 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:10.000 from the FDA. This does seem to get people out 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:13.840 of the hospital quicker. It is not a fantasia, it's 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:15.880 not a knockout blow against the virus, but it is 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:18.680 one tool that can help us preserve hospital capacity, and 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:20.560 it does give you hope that we can make other 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:22.919 anti virals than There are people trying to work on 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:25.719 antibody based therapies, not just from recovered patients, but also 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:29.039 synthetic antibody. So it is looking good, but we'll probably 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:32.400 see those types of therapeutics much before we will see 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:35.000 a vaccine. Dr Dolga, You know, here we are at 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:37.760 this interesting junction, and Jason and I were planning for 0:06:37.800 --> 0:06:39.440 our weekend show. We talked a lot about this in 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:44.320 relationship to Bloomberg Business week Magazine's cover story about reopening. 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:47.200 There's so much discussion about it, you know, d Delay, 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:50.680 do you go quicker? I mean, no matter what kind 0:06:50.720 --> 0:06:54.159 of reopening we do, there are they're going to be 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:57.719 some individuals, right who will be at risk and some, 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:01.000 unfortunately we will lose their their live. It's just the 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:04.839 result of increased social interaction, right, It doesn't matter when 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:09.320 we start. Is that fair to say? Exactly? That's exactly 0:07:09.360 --> 0:07:11.160 the truth. And I think many people don't appreciate that 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:13.680 the virus didn't go anywhere. So someone says, I'm gonna 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:16.040 wait till next week to get my hair cut. Um, 0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:19.200 there's nothing different going to be there because social distancing, 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:21.760 the way that those stay at home orders were put 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:23.960 in place was really and was really just to an 0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:26.160 eye in hospital capacity. It wasn't going to make things 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:28.120 risk free. And nothing is going to be risk free 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:29.640 in the air of the pandemic. And people are going 0:07:29.680 --> 0:07:32.080 to have to think about what's important to them, what 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:35.360 their personal hierarchy of values are, what what they want, 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:37.400 what's essential for them to do, what's not essential for 0:07:37.400 --> 0:07:39.120 them to do, and make these decisions on their own 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:41.560 about what risk they're going to tolerate. Because it is 0:07:41.560 --> 0:07:43.160 true that the virus is here, and now this is 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:46.120 something that we have to incorporate into our own risk calculation. 0:07:46.160 --> 0:07:48.920 Every time we step out the door, we're talking with 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:52.680 Dr Amish Adalgia. He is infectious disease physician at the 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:54.960 Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the Bloomberg School of 0:07:54.960 --> 0:07:56.720 Public Health, as you can tell by the name, the 0:07:56.720 --> 0:07:59.480 Bloomberg School Public Health supported by Mike Bloomberg, the owner 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:01.720 of this RABI a station, founder of Bloomberg LP and 0:08:01.760 --> 0:08:06.320 Bloomberg Philanthropies. So, Dr Dolgha when it comes to reopening, 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:08.360 one of the questions that we hear all the time, 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:10.880 whether it's around our dinner tables or when we are 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:15.880 talking to folks, is about schools, both elementary school, secondary schools, 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:19.760 and higher ed. We're seeing colleges say they're going to 0:08:19.840 --> 0:08:23.080 bring students back onto campus. What's your read on the 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:28.800 plans so far? Schools are something that's very controversial, and 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:31.440 even the closure of them back in March was something 0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:35.640 that wasn't completely supported by everybody in my field. And 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:38.760 we do know that school closures are something that have 0:08:38.880 --> 0:08:40.920 lots of negative consequences in terms of how do you 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:43.320 how the students still learn? What about the students that 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:46.840 rely on schools for meals? What about the students resocializing 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:49.600 outside of school, especially as state at home orders are listed. 0:08:49.880 --> 0:08:52.400 All of that's really important, and what's the the impact 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:54.640 the marginal value of closing schools, And there hasn't been 0:08:54.640 --> 0:08:56.560 a lot of data that shows that there are effective 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:59.360 and really at stopping the spread of this. They don't 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:02.280 magnify it doesn't magnify this disease the way they do influenza. 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:03.800 We know they get infected, we know they have the 0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:05.840 virus in their nose, we know they have lots of contact, 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:08.840 but we haven't seen data of children driving the epidemiology 0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:10.160 of that. So I do think that schools are going 0:09:10.200 --> 0:09:13.080 to probably be one of the first things that that reopen. 0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:14.960 It's going to be controversial, and right now we do 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:17.480 have schools open, for example in Idaho and Montana, these 0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:19.920 private schools have opened, and I do think that that's 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:21.280 going to be something that's done on the state by 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:22.880 state level. But I do think it should be one 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:24.760 of the first things that we start thinking about doing, 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:26.719 because there are lots of negative consequences to it and 0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:29.000 not a lot of positive data that actually shows that 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:32.199 it's beneficial. You know, you've been working in infectious diseases 0:09:32.200 --> 0:09:34.160 for a long time, and I do wonder you know 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:38.280 what change is going forward in terms of how we 0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:40.320 approach it as a society. I think for such a 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:43.000 long time, certainly the developed world was like, well, that's 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:45.040 not something that happens to us. And I do think 0:09:45.160 --> 0:09:49.040 we are all changed dramatically because of this. I'm just curious, 0:09:49.080 --> 0:09:52.240 though you're much smarter than me on this, how do 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:56.840 you see it? This pandemic has touched everybody. Often, infectious 0:09:56.840 --> 0:09:59.720 disease experts that that work on emerging infectious diseases and 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:03.160 pan m A preparedness and biosecurity are often talking to 0:10:03.200 --> 0:10:05.440 themselves more than they're talking to the general public. But 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:09.400 now we're seeing how impactful the pandemic can be and 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:13.199 how important it is to think about pandemic preparedness beforehand, 0:10:13.360 --> 0:10:15.280 to make those investments ahead of time so that you 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:17.280 don't end up in the situation that we're in now. 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:19.840 And I do think that going forward, this is going 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:22.960 to be something that people think about and and try 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:25.480 to fortify, and hopefully this won't fall into that same 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:28.560 cyclopanic and neglect that we've seen after anthrax or bird 0:10:28.600 --> 0:10:31.240 flu or H one N one or or Middle East 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:34.360 respiratory syndrom, rozico or ebola, that these things come and 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:36.880 go and they disappear from the headlines, and then policymakers 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:39.880 forget about them even though they're still there. Hopefully this, 0:10:39.880 --> 0:10:42.880 this pandemic and its impact will change that line of thinking. 0:10:44.160 --> 0:10:46.400 And what have you learned through through all of this, Like, 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:49.720 what's been the biggest surprise to you, dr Adlga? Knowing 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:53.960 this so well and either in terms of the reaction 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:57.160 in the public or the reaction even in your community, 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:00.640 the biggest surprise to me is the fact that the 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:04.480 United States was the most prepared nation against the pandemic, 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:07.040 and we failed miserably at it, not because we didn't 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:08.800 have the plans, not because we didn't know what to do, it, 0:11:08.920 --> 0:11:11.559 just because it was not executed properly. And there was 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:13.880 a lot of politicization that occurred from the get go 0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:16.760 that really we still haven't recovered from. When you talk 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.720 about what happened was testing and the testing protocols and 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:22.360 viewing this mostly as a travel related infection that wasn't 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:25.360 going to come here. All of that time that was 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:28.680 wasted from January and February and part of March, where 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:30.800 the focus was on the wrong actions and not the 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:34.720 right actions, which would be increasing diagnostic testing capacity, fortifying 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:38.040 our hospitals, public health communication to the general public about 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:40.319 what was going to becoming, and getting our public health 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:42.560 departments in line to be able to do contact tracing. 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:44.959 That to me was surprising that this was all kind 0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:47.080 of textbook stuff that we've talked about for a long 0:11:47.120 --> 0:11:49.839 time and it just wasn't going didn't occur. Yeah. Well, 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:51.640 I've got to say we've learned so much from you 0:11:51.920 --> 0:11:54.520 and the whole team at John's Hopkins. Uh, and let's 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.880 hope we all learn a lot going forward. Dr amesh 0:11:57.920 --> 0:12:01.240 adalgia He's infectious disease physicians and at Johns Hopkins Center 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:04.000 for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health, 0:12:04.040 --> 0:12:06.920 of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg 0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:11.160 LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. This is Bloomberg Business Week with 0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:16.120 Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio talk about tones. 0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:18.640 I feel like the cover story Jason Kelly kind of 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:21.560 looks at some of that and the implications of what 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:25.760 it might mean for US post COVID nineteen and the recovery. Absolutely, 0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:29.400 so let's get into it. If we can with the 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:31.400 man who put it together and then the man who 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:35.440 puts the whole magazine together every week. We're talking about 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:38.880 the writer Peter Coy, economics editor for Bloomberg Business Week, 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:42.559 joining us on the phone from New Jersey, and Joel Webber, 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:45.400 he is, of course the editor of Bloomberg Business Week, 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:49.640 joining us from Brooklyn. Alright, So Joel set the stage 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:52.320 for us because I want to know the conversation you 0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:55.120 guys have, ye because leading into this, you know, and 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.840 you're you're very kind in helping us sort of put 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:03.000 together how we end up framing the cover story. You 0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:05.920 can listen to it every weekend. It's a great way 0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:10.480 to absorb it and to as a companion or instead 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:13.040 of reading it. And when you sent us the notes, 0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:15.599 both Carol and I were like, WHOA, okay, kind of 0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:19.360 a little bit. That's that's a take. So te this 0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:23.280 up for us. So Peter and I have been sure 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:27.360 of having ongoing conversations, um about obviously the biggest story 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:29.680 in the world right now, which is not only the virus, 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:32.160 which I think he's done an amazing job covering, but um, 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:34.280 the economy, which is the other thing that he covers. 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:38.640 Really well, and I basically sort of asked him to say, like, Okay, 0:13:38.640 --> 0:13:41.680 what's our what's our take, what's this gonna mean going forward? 0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:45.880 And and the you know, the the outlook, um is 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:49.520 the thing that as business leaders, I think everyone's wrestling with, 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:53.040 like what what's this thing gonna look like going forward? 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:56.640 And so when we started talking about that, UM, I said, I, 0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:58.440 you know, I think one of the things that we 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:00.440 have to bring in here is a conversation and about 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:05.000 President Trump and and sort of this mismanagement of the 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:09.640 virus from the outset and also now almost the mismanagement 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:13.880 of perhaps reopening too soon and if if that goes 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:18.000 um you know, uh not, well, that's going to have 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:22.640 a serious impact on the economy. It's also a gamble 0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:26.720 for his re election campaign. And when I when we 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:29.480 started talking about that, Peter goes, well, there's this thing 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:32.960 called gambling on a resurrection you should know about. And 0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:35.360 I'll use that as a way to transition to Peter. Peter, 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:39.760 what's gambling on a resurrection? Right? Term from game theory, 0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:43.040 So the idea would be if you're behind in a game, 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.960 it could be any game. It could be uh football 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:51.440 game or running for election or a laboratory experiment. Then you, uh, 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:55.800 if you just play by conservative, normal rules, you'll probably lose, 0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:59.600 Whereas if you gamble, take a big chance, there's some 0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.120 chance that it will pay off and you'll be very happy. 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:04.240 And if it doesn't pay off, well you're gonna lose anyway, 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:07.040 So no big deal, um, And so a lot of 0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:09.320 you'll see that a lot of executives who are losing 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:12.120 money and wanted trying to keep their jobs will gamble 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:16.560 for resurrection, and up to the shareholders to discipline them 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.400 and make sure they don't, you know, gamble too much 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:21.960 in a way that ends up harming the company. So 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:25.040 I said, well, we can carry that analysis over to 0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:31.040 the United States the federal government. Trump is taking a 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:35.160 fairly big risk that this reopening will will work, that 0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:38.920 there will be relatively few extra deaths and the economy 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:41.560 will rebound, and then he can win reelection. That's good 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:44.720 for him. It's also good for the country if if 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:48.240 it actually works out that way. But let me just 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:51.240 finish on the downside quickly. The downside scenario is that 0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:55.640 he um loses, which she probably might have done anyway, 0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:58.720 but the country loses more than it would have under 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:02.440 a conservative approach because they're more deaths in the economy, 0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:06.520 does not reopen quickly because you're getting resurgences and re 0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:11.440 shutdowns and people are afraid to stay at home. Exactly like, 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:14.240 it gets to this whole idea, you know, by postponing, 0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:18.200 do you improve or reduce the impact by delaying the 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:19.880 the open I feel like it's the big question that 0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:22.800 everybody is debating. The problem is, this isn't a game. 0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:25.960 This is you're dealing with people's lives and livelihoods. So 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:30.000 I do wonder, you know, kind of how you see it, 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:32.640 what's the alternative way of kind of approaching this versus 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:35.600 maybe what we're getting from President Trump. Well, what we're 0:16:35.640 --> 0:16:40.040 hearing from a lot of epidemiologists is that you need 0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:45.120 to have um. You need to move gradually open the 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:48.320 things that are most critical and where the risk of 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:53.320 new outbreaks the smallest, and then keep shut the things 0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:57.080 that where they're the upside of reopening is relatively small 0:16:57.120 --> 0:16:59.800 and the risk is great. For example, we've heard Trump 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.920 a lee think he can't wait to see you know, stadiums, 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:07.679 sports stadiums filling up again, And I'm thinking, really, that's 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:10.560 exactly the last thing you should want to open, just 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:16.040 because there's so much exposure. Once one person asymptomatic person 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:20.159 carrying the virus could expose dozens or hundreds of people 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.639 in a single afternoon watching a football game or something, 0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:28.520 and so Joel, I mean that that's such an interesting 0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:31.760 point too, And as someone who looks across all of this, 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:34.920 and also I think has has done a really tremendous 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:37.919 job over the course of this administration sort of trying 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:41.359 to understand not just economically, but from a business perspective 0:17:41.400 --> 0:17:45.520 and from a political perspective, the Trump presidency. I mean, 0:17:45.560 --> 0:17:50.160 I have to say this feels on brand to some extent. 0:17:50.200 --> 0:17:53.080 I mean, this is in some ways that a measure 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:57.320 of this presidency. Well, that is certainly one of the 0:17:57.400 --> 0:17:59.520 ways that we wanted to touch on it um in 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:01.879 this our coal and you know, to be clear, like 0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:05.240 we I really try not to put Trump on the 0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:08.040 cover episodes some extent, you know, in general, like this 0:18:08.080 --> 0:18:10.040 is I think only like maybe the third or fourth 0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:11.560 time I've done it in two and a half years 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:14.119 as editor. And I also feel like it is the 0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:17.560 exact moment that we have to talk about this because 0:18:17.560 --> 0:18:20.680 it is a huge political gamble that he's also taking here, 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:23.560 like and you know, if this goes well, to Peter's point, 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:26.320 small chance that it does, but if this goes well, 0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:30.160 like he he might have the economy roaring by the time, um, 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:33.800 you know the people are casting ballots, and that is 0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:37.359 obviously the thing that he's hoping for. And I think 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:40.760 the realist part here is, as Peter did a really 0:18:40.760 --> 0:18:43.680 great job pointing out, is like it's it's probably not 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:47.160 going to go well. It's probably gonna get worse if 0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:50.320 we reopen too soon. Everywhere we look around the world, 0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:53.200 the people who have gotten this thing under control, whether 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:58.160 it's New Zealand, Iceland, um, South Korea to some extent, 0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:03.520 all of those places basically extinguished and eradicated any new 0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:08.240 cases before they reopened. We're not seeing those numbers in 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:11.560 the US, especially outside of places that's coming down like 0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:14.360 New York. If anything, we're starting to see those numbers 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:20.320 take up. And if that continues unabated, we could be 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:22.200 in a world of hurt if we have to shut 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:25.480 things down all over again. Well, and I just want 0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:26.760 to add on. You know, Jason and I had a 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:30.159 conversation with Bill Haseltine, who created human genome sciences, and 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:32.000 he said, you know, we'll have to remember that I 0:19:32.000 --> 0:19:35.879 took one person in China to create essentially where we 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:38.919 are today, and so we need to think about I 0:19:38.920 --> 0:19:41.639 think there's something in your store. Peter. You say, to 0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:43.639 defeat the virus, we have to think like the virus 0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:47.600 um and I think that's really smart. Yeah, It's like 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:51.879 we have a quote from a South Korean government minister 0:19:51.960 --> 0:19:57.680 who said that one infected person entering and previously unexposed population, 0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:00.240 it's like gropping a blob of ink and to a 0:20:00.280 --> 0:20:04.280 pool of clear water. It just where spreads everywhere really 0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:09.520 really quickly. And so, Peter, as you did this research, 0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:14.440 how our economists thinking about this? How are the experts 0:20:14.520 --> 0:20:17.400 that you're talking to thinking about this? I mean, are 0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:20.159 folks coming down on sort of in one camp or 0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:23.720 another in terms of what the right paces? And obviously 0:20:23.800 --> 0:20:26.480 this isn't a binary question, but I do wonder, because 0:20:26.480 --> 0:20:30.320