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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily

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Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg We're

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Speaker 1: gonna rip up the script here right now. We've got

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Speaker 1: a wonderful expert, a true expert with ubs on emerging markets.

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Speaker 1: But I'm going to go right to China and the

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Speaker 1: domestic China Jeff Dennis, that you know, in their predilection

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Speaker 1: towards reminiscence of a stock operator, they seem to like

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Speaker 1: their investment fads within China, and China has a very

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Speaker 1: large bitcoin interest, doesn't. Yes, yes, it does a pretty

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Speaker 1: large bitcoin interest. UM. I think the fad with investment

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Speaker 1: in China is though fading gradually over time. Your listeners

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Speaker 1: will know that pretty much half the economy at one

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Speaker 1: stage was investment that is starting to come lower. The

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Speaker 1: economy in China is beginning to rebalance there for away

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Speaker 1: from investment, back towards consumer I know, back towards towards

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Speaker 1: consumer spending, towards services and less manufacturing. And I think

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Speaker 1: that's a long term trend. So although they've had this

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Speaker 1: love affair with investment, and I'm sure bitcoin is part

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Speaker 1: of that. UM, the long term fate, so to speak,

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Speaker 1: outlook for the Chinese economy is going to be much

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Speaker 1: more driven by the resilience and the growth of consumer

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Speaker 1: spending as as Chinese people, as indeed in a lot

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Speaker 1: of countries, get wealthier. Jeff, I'm going to take a

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Speaker 1: leaf from my colleagues book. Tom is always interested in

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Speaker 1: where the money flows, right, where does it go? Because

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Speaker 1: there's smart money out there, and it seems as though

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of money that's going into Asia, but

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Speaker 1: it's not going into Japan and it's not going into

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Speaker 1: exchange traded funds. Is that accurate? And what does that

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Speaker 1: tell you? Um? I'm not sure that's entirely accurate. First

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Speaker 1: of all, of course, the Japanese market has been very

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Speaker 1: strong recently, and it's a market that we've we've favored

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Speaker 1: our strategies to favor that at the global level. UM.

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Speaker 1: And although we've seen tremendous inflow into emerging market funds

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Speaker 1: this year over fifty five billion dollars, which is pretty

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Speaker 1: much the best year we've ever had except two thousand

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Speaker 1: and ten UM. About seventy of that is still gone

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Speaker 1: through the e t f UM channel, so to speak.

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Speaker 1: So let's call that twelve billion dollars has gone to

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Speaker 1: I've gone into active em funds, which is certainly a

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Speaker 1: big improvement in recent years. And it's very interesting because

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Speaker 1: this year has been so disparate in terms of performance.

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Speaker 1: Have you've been long technology and long growth, you've done

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Speaker 1: very well. And if you've gone more the value way

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Speaker 1: towards the commodity sectors energy and materials and also financials,

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Speaker 1: you've done much less well. So it has been a

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Speaker 1: good year for active managers. But UM money has gone

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Speaker 1: to Asia, has gone to Japan, but above all, in

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Speaker 1: my world this year money has gone to Asian technology,

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Speaker 1: which is of course blown the doors off in terms

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Speaker 1: of price performance. Does that mean that you believe it

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Speaker 1: will continue or is it time to rotate financial stocks?

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Speaker 1: For example the regulation in the United States. We've got

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Speaker 1: an interview with Lloyd blank Find of Golment Sex coming up.

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Speaker 1: We we think the story is much more plain villa.

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Speaker 1: In terms of financials, we've about over fifty of the

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Speaker 1: market in them. The index is financials and Technology so

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Speaker 1: you've got to make a relative bet about them. We

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Speaker 1: are arguing to our investors now that you should be

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Speaker 1: a little bit more careful about being long technology. It's

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Speaker 1: not my sively expensive, it's just very, very over owned.

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Speaker 1: And we want people to rotate a bit more into financials,

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Speaker 1: where you begin to see US colity improvements begin, see

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Speaker 1: loans growth cycles beginning to pick up. And indeed, if

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Speaker 1: you are going to see a modest rise in bond

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Speaker 1: deals around the world in two thousand nineteen, which is

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Speaker 1: all cool, you may even have a bit of an

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Speaker 1: interest margin story in financials as well. I mean, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm looking, folks, as the way you do this in

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg you got to w E I go and

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Speaker 1: it's got so much wonderful information and then you can

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Speaker 1: currency adjust. Let's adjust this. I don't even know what

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Speaker 1: this exchange is. The whole cheat men's stock market. I'm

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Speaker 1: guessing Vietnam very and you're still using w E I.

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Speaker 1: You don't do the launch launchpad. You know more than

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Speaker 1: I do. But I'm looking at the whole cheatman stock

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Speaker 1: market up dollar based. Every single person Jeff Dennis and

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Speaker 1: the Jeff Dennis world knows these puppies revert to the mean.

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Speaker 1: Is there a trend there that's discernible? Um? I mean,

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Speaker 1: first of all, for upside in Vietnam, which is a

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Speaker 1: frontier market according to the index provider, is actually not

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Speaker 1: wildly out of line. It's not wildly strong. China is

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Speaker 1: above the Hong Kong China Enterprise Index, which is the

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Speaker 1: way we look at China in terms of foreign investment.

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Speaker 1: Career has been very strong. You've seen some tremendous games

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Speaker 1: this year. The really important thing has happened in emerging

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Speaker 1: markets this year. You've seen a sharp drop in the dollar,

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Speaker 1: You've seen a nice rebounded commodity price, you've seen a

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Speaker 1: boom in the technology sector. And you've seen a consequence

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Speaker 1: of all of that, or or consequence of some of that,

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Speaker 1: you've had a really big explosion of earnings growth in them,

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Speaker 1: which looks like it's going to be well north of

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Speaker 1: growth this year, best year since two thousand and ten.

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Speaker 1: So although EM has done very well this year, it

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Speaker 1: is not actually got that much more expensive because the

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Speaker 1: earning story has been very good. So the issue is

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Speaker 1: if EM has got a little richer and the valuations

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Speaker 1: are somewhat high, does the cost of capital stay low

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Speaker 1: du bon less say low to justify those moves. So

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Speaker 1: we're not worried that some of these markets are a

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Speaker 1: it's really been broadly justified by a very strong recovery

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Speaker 1: and earnings growth. Well, let's pick up on something that

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Speaker 1: time focused on, having to do with dollar denominated returns.

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Speaker 1: You think the dollar is going to remain weak or

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Speaker 1: get weaker. Our view is the dollar will go down

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Speaker 1: again in two thousand and eighteen, not as much as

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Speaker 1: it's gone down this year. We've got the dollar euro

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Speaker 1: ending two thousand and eighteen at one five. It's about

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Speaker 1: one eighteen today, so nothing, not as big a move

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Speaker 1: as as um as this year. What is interesting is,

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Speaker 1: although the dollar has been weak this year, emerging mark

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Speaker 1: currencies have not gone up that much against the dollar.

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Speaker 1: We've gone up about four percent, whereas dollars gone down

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Speaker 1: a long way against the euro. But the bottom line is,

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Speaker 1: even if you don't get much translation effect for EM

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Speaker 1: returns because the dollar is is that week against some

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Speaker 1: of these EM currencies, what you get is when the

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Speaker 1: dollar goes down to liquidity comes out of the US

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Speaker 1: and chases yield and chases risk overseas so you've got

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Speaker 1: a very beneficial uidity effect. And if the dollar goes

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Speaker 1: down again next year, which is the U B S cool,

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Speaker 1: that liquidity is going to continue at the margin to

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Speaker 1: come towards em and it's going to give us a

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Speaker 1: decent year again next year. Jeff Dennis with the UBS

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Speaker 1: right now on oil, And let me just get this

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Speaker 1: out of the way. We're not going to send out

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Speaker 1: to you the Short Report, and it's gorgeous venusia on

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Speaker 1: veils and pistons and pumps, because we protect the copyright

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Speaker 1: of our guests. Contact Mr Short when he's not watching

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Speaker 1: the Tenant one Philadelphia Eagles. Stephen, good morning, Good morning.

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Speaker 1: What is the distinctive feature here at the top of

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Speaker 1: the home on the range. We're right up against the

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Speaker 1: range on w T I in Brent. What's the thing

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Speaker 1: you're watching as we hit this range peak right now?

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Speaker 1: It's that big magical sixty number. There's nothing special about it, Tom,

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Speaker 1: It's just the fact that it's a psychological number. The

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Speaker 1: next handle in the iteration. But to that point, we're

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Speaker 1: getting up and we're pushing up eight dollars. Momentum is

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Speaker 1: starting to stall, and in fact, some of the technical indicators,

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Speaker 1: momentum oscillators so forth indicate that the market has peaked,

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Speaker 1: at least for a short term. That is to say,

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Speaker 1: we did get the announcement, Uh not unexpected that we're

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Speaker 1: going to get the extension with OPEC and the quotas

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Speaker 1: all right now. There really isn't any kind of follow

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Speaker 1: through on the NOMI strikes. This question came up like

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Speaker 1: four times today. Does Vienna matter to American oil analysis? Uh? No,

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Speaker 1: it's actually it's an excellent point. We essentially for the

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Speaker 1: past ten years have I had a fiber caded markets

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Speaker 1: in that the US now becoming a powerhouse with regard

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Speaker 1: to its own entry production and becoming a significant exporter

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Speaker 1: on the refined products and a burgeoning exporter in the

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Speaker 1: crudel market. Essentially, we're having two different market areas here.

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Speaker 1: So you have the United States, North America essentially Canada

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Speaker 1: and the United States. Unfortunately Mexico, given their infrastructure issues,

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Speaker 1: is not part of that. But and then you have,

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Speaker 1: of course the global market and the growth with Asian refiners.

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Speaker 1: Pim Fox were here by pause a listener in London,

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Speaker 1: Brandon emails in wait. The eagles are ten and one

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Speaker 1: question mark best Inlite. Question Mark, thank you for listening

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Speaker 1: on Radio London this morning. Absolutely, we're here in Philadelphia,

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Speaker 1: as shocked as anyone that about anyone that sounds like

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Speaker 1: you're from Philadelphia A Steven. I want to put you

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Speaker 1: back on track here having to do with oil and

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Speaker 1: and perhaps something that I know I missed over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: On Sunday, there was a big conclave in Saudi Arabia. UH,

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Speaker 1: the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon. He brought together forty

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Speaker 1: other islam Islamic countries and they are in a agreement

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Speaker 1: of a counter terrorism alliance. I'm wondering if you could

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Speaker 1: just speak about that and the calls by the Crown

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Speaker 1: Prince to introduce what he describes as a more moderate

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Speaker 1: form of Islam into Saudi Arabia and whether that will

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Speaker 1: in some way change the dynamic of you know, Iran

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Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, because we'll get the geopolitics in a second. Yeah, absolutely,

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Speaker 1: yeah him, And we essentially saw back when the bear

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Speaker 1: market in oil began, it was prompted by Saudi Arabia's

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Speaker 1: refusal to take oil off of the market. UH. And

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Speaker 1: that had and three Thanksgivings ago when A ministers met

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Speaker 1: indianna Um. What was left on set is the previous

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Speaker 1: Monday UH back in Vienna, the West sat down with

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Speaker 1: Iran with reguards to the nuclear ambitions of Turan, and

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Speaker 1: Tahurran got up and walked away from the table. UH.

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Speaker 1: That simply, in my estimation, UH prompted Saudi Arabia to

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Speaker 1: go into an economic warfare with with Iran, and hence

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Speaker 1: we had oil plunge from seventy five dollars down to

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Speaker 1: about twenty five dollars a barrel. However, shortly thereafter be

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Speaker 1: not exacquiesced and struck a deal with Iran. So that

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Speaker 1: kind of put a Saudi Arabia's plans on hold, but

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Speaker 1: certainly with the growing tension UH with a Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 1: and Guitar essentially pushing potentially Quitar into Iran's arms, right

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Speaker 1: because Iran and Qatar were not invited to this summit. Yeah, exactly. So,

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Speaker 1: So it's the age old soony shea ripped within Opec UH,

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Speaker 1: and that is certainly the black Swan event out there

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Speaker 1: for the new year. All right, So if that's the

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Speaker 1: black Swan, how would you trade that You're at crewe

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Speaker 1: to fifty seven and change right now. Absolutely, I'm yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that we are on the top of the

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Speaker 1: range at this point. Uh. This is a level high

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Speaker 1: fifties for North American producers, mid sixties, uh, for the

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Speaker 1: global producers. Opportunities to hedge. And what what you always

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Speaker 1: want to look at, guys, is who's been doing the buying,

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Speaker 1: who's been doing the selling? And right now the buyer

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Speaker 1: has been a speculator Wall Street very short term view.

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Speaker 1: More importantly, it's he's been doing the seller. To keep

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Speaker 1: in mind that a crude all producer has to sell.

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Speaker 1: He's the only one who has to sell his barrel.

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Speaker 1: And we look at the hedging activity, we're looking at

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Speaker 1: hedging at an all time high at these levels. Yes, well,

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Speaker 1: that's a one way that you're you're predicting lower right, Uh, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think we're at there. I think we are are

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Speaker 1: really pushing up against the top of the market, and

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Speaker 1: I would expect to see moderation uh into the new year. Okay,

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Speaker 1: but why don't we go to Stephen short barrel or

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Speaker 1: whatever you're predicting a year ago? I mean, is is

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Speaker 1: it just because demand is kicked in to put a

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Speaker 1: floor under the range. Yeah, we're essentially you know, we

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Speaker 1: we yell yoed in between that that low forty dollar range,

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Speaker 1: mid fifty dollar range over the past year. Uh. Certainly

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Speaker 1: we've had a significant rally UH in the market or

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Speaker 1: fall since post Harvey. Actually uh, and then you had

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Speaker 1: to disconnect, um to be expected between the Brent market

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Speaker 1: and the oil market given the impact that they had

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Speaker 1: on the storms had on logistics in North America. So

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Speaker 1: at this point, yes, there there is demand. But let's

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Speaker 1: keep in mind also that speculators have certainly come into

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Speaker 1: the market recently. For the latest update from the c FPC,

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Speaker 1: Wall Street is now sitting on already six week high

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Speaker 1: in their long position UH, and they've cut their short

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Speaker 1: position to a thirty week glow. So certainly when you're

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Speaker 1: cutting your short position, you're buying back the market, and

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Speaker 1: that certainly has been in impetus to some of the

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Speaker 1: strength in the market. Steven S, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: The short report greatly appreciated. Ashwin Alan Carr joins us.

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Speaker 1: He is, of course, said right, Jannis Henderson, Global Asset

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Speaker 1: Allocation and Risk Management. And you know Ashwin, Tom during

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Speaker 1: the break, we were talking about how fear and emotion

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Speaker 1: can change the way you trade risk. And you mentioned

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Speaker 1: something earlier that I just want you to maybe expand

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Speaker 1: on having to do with people that are not experts

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Speaker 1: or veterans of trading risk now participating in this market.

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Speaker 1: Could they be the weak link where things go bad?

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Speaker 1: I think you're exactly right. I think they because they're

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Speaker 1: not experienced. If fear is going to set in, it's

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Speaker 1: going to set in first with those who are uncomfortable

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Speaker 1: or exploring an unknown territory. And there are many, many investors,

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Speaker 1: from very risk averse institutional investors to even retail investors

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Speaker 1: who have jumped on this bandwagon of selling volatility, whether

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Speaker 1: it be interest rate volatility, whether it be currency volatility,

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Speaker 1: whether it be equity volatility, the first sign of stress.

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Speaker 1: Who are the first people to jump off the train?

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Speaker 1: It's those who are not who are inexperienced, who haven't

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Speaker 1: gone through these ebbs and flows before. So that is

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Speaker 1: the weak link. UM that link drops, the whole chain

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Speaker 1: is going to get impacted. UM. This is not only

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Speaker 1: going to impact volatility levels, this will also impact the

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Speaker 1: flattening we see in the term structure of interest rates UM.

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Speaker 1: So those holders and everyone is moving into the long

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Speaker 1: end of the curve um. Risk comes back term premium

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Speaker 1: by definition must come back term structure. Stephens. One of

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Speaker 1: the biggest crowds today is long the long end of

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Speaker 1: the curve um and underweight the short end of the

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Speaker 1: What happens when that reverses, We'll have to see. I

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Speaker 1: want to rip up the script or ash and I

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Speaker 1: don't want to use in trouble with Mr gross or

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Speaker 1: with a general council of Janice Anderson. But I've got

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Speaker 1: to ask with your mathematics about the auction process, the

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Speaker 1: bid asque process of bitcoin. We've all seen this before.

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Speaker 1: Market pros are like, how many times have we been

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Speaker 1: down this road? And so much of this is not

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Speaker 1: only the mystery of who's on the bid and who's

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Speaker 1: on the asked, but the small set of people or institutions.

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Speaker 1: Do I have that right? Do you exactly have that right?

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Speaker 1: That bitcoin? A lot of people, in my opinion, are

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Speaker 1: misinterpreting the bitcoin as the block chain. The blockchain has

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Speaker 1: tremendous value to it because it's a ledger um. It's

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Speaker 1: a real time authentic um apparently bulletproof ledger, distributed ledger.

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Speaker 1: It's a distributed ledger um. The bitcoin, however, is just

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Speaker 1: one key to that ledger. There are many cryptocurrencies, there's

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Speaker 1: many keys to the that that vault that the blockchain provides.

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Speaker 1: Um So, Bitcoin by itself, it's not clear what value

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Speaker 1: it has. It's very clear the blockchain has tremendous value.

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Speaker 1: You the blockchain is a game changer, but bitcoin is

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Speaker 1: just one key to that chain. Um So, people should

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Speaker 1: be wary of bitcoin. I don't believe bitcoin presents systemic

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Speaker 1: risk for exactly the reasons you said, Tom right that

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Speaker 1: a small group of people who are participating, um so,

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Speaker 1: it's not a systemic event. But seeing me is going

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Speaker 1: to launch futures on bitcoin. Um as more and more

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Speaker 1: people have access to cryptocurrencies, and these people, once again

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Speaker 1: are inexperience. They're not technologists, they don't really understand truly

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Speaker 1: the intricacies of what a cryptocurrency are. Just like the

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Speaker 1: inexperienced people who are selling volatility today. It creates a

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Speaker 1: dangerous recipe. This has been hugely valuable actually occur with

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Speaker 1: us with Janis Henderson, Thank you so much. The single

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Speaker 1: best essay of the day, and Marvin good Friend has

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Speaker 1: been Mr Emmons of Intellectists of course for years at

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Speaker 1: Pimco as well. Ben, I'm going to go right to

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Speaker 1: the punchline, which is, with Mr good Friend coming on,

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Speaker 1: it makes the Stanley Fisher's slot, the vice chair slot,

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Speaker 1: that much more important. How does it change the who

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Speaker 1: of the vice chair? Hi, good morning, Tolum, Thanks for

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Speaker 1: having me. Um, Well, it changes because good friends. You know,

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Speaker 1: as you've been described montros econumnists, you know that vice

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Speaker 1: chair is really the person that brings it all in

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Speaker 1: balance right against the others and um, you know sort

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Speaker 1: of so that is an important critical boymans. So if

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Speaker 1: that would be someone was also a more monitors view

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Speaker 1: of fat policy, then we really are shifting next year.

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Speaker 1: This is almost like the Supreme Court in that I

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Speaker 1: guess if you get five to four monitors versus Keynesian,

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Speaker 1: that's a big deal. How close equivalent is the f

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Speaker 1: O m C process to a five four Supreme Court?

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Speaker 1: Either way? Yeah, I think it's changing. My sense from

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Speaker 1: this is that the you know, with power coming on

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Speaker 1: this chair, that we are seeing somewhat of a shift

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Speaker 1: of the agenda. At least, you know, there's there's a

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Speaker 1: focus on growth. I thought that testimony that power was

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Speaker 1: emphasizing that this is my interpretation. So I think we

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Speaker 1: are you know, as you described the Supreme Court's way,

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Speaker 1: like yeah, you get this balance of different people on

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Speaker 1: the board. You know, it's just expressing your view about

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Speaker 1: the economy in a different way than before. The change

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Speaker 1: in view that I think is the f has followed

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Speaker 1: the law of the last number of years, maybe shifting.

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Speaker 1: It may not be pure monitors, but it's that has

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Speaker 1: a certain tone in there. But then I just want

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Speaker 1: to follow up on what you said having to do

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Speaker 1: with with growth, as if the current makeup of the

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve is not focused on growth, it seems to

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Speaker 1: be doing everything they can in order to maintain growth,

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Speaker 1: whether it's you know, maintaining that nice big balance sheet

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Speaker 1: although the runoff is beginning, or accommodative interest rates now

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Speaker 1: that's rooping. I mean, it's it's it's it's not like

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Speaker 1: they actually are adverse to growth. But I think the

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Speaker 1: point about it is more it is is that you know,

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Speaker 1: we're a full employment on air and that's sort of

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Speaker 1: the conclusion. We know inflation remains on the target, but

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Speaker 1: you know what's missing has been growth, really right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: we have been you know, two percentage sort of growth,

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Speaker 1: so that the way the fat can stimulate that is

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Speaker 1: really about this coordination with the government right of what

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Speaker 1: the type of reforms need to take place, whether it's

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Speaker 1: through regulation or labor market reforms, in order to get

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Speaker 1: the growth really back on track. I think that's the

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Speaker 1: key critical element which came It was a lot of

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Speaker 1: that discussion in the Powell testimony. I think that's that's

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Speaker 1: the change here. I mean, obviously, low interest rates have

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Speaker 1: stimulated the economy to an extent, but not to degree

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Speaker 1: that you would have expected that would have happened normally, right,

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Speaker 1: that growth would have rebound aboff trend that only has

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Speaker 1: happened temporarily two and two fourteen. So really looking at

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Speaker 1: something I think the Feathers focused on working with the

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Speaker 1: government on the right amount of reforms in labor market

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Speaker 1: and bank regulation. You're bringing a smile to to Tom's

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Speaker 1: to Tom's face here, yeah, I'm glad to hear that,

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Speaker 1: because you know, it would be great if it actually

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Speaker 1: works right And as of course, yeah that actually you know,

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Speaker 1: if those those are difficult words when you're talking about

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Speaker 1: the future of the economy, I just want to post

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Speaker 1: you one one question here having to do with this

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Speaker 1: appointment and growth is blowing a hole in the federal deficit?

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Speaker 1: Is that a way to do this? Yeah? And so

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Speaker 1: there's a point about that that needed that deficits and

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Speaker 1: recession or closely closely links, right, I mean that it's

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Speaker 1: been the pass like that before. Right. That's that's critical

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Speaker 1: of course, Like how can the depth shit that you

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Speaker 1: increase really generators growth that avoid the recession? Right? That

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Speaker 1: that's what we're going to be challenged with. You know,

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Speaker 1: the the yuker flattening that we've had this year could

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Speaker 1: be interpreted shot shot that you know, it is not

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Speaker 1: a streaming price in the yuker for the deficit rater.

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Speaker 1: The market interprets the increases the deficit as a as

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Speaker 1: an probability of a recession increasing over the number of

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Speaker 1: next number of years. That's an opposing view to the

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Speaker 1: point east that we're getting now on the board. Right.

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Speaker 1: That's with this more GDP focus, I want to get

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Speaker 1: the phrases right here as we go to the nomination process,

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Speaker 1: and what I would suggest will be important scrutiny of

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Speaker 1: Professor good Friend. You keep using the word monitorius. Marvin

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Speaker 1: good Friend is out of Union College connected a good

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Speaker 1: morning Mohawk Valley and Brown University, which is the land

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Speaker 1: of Bill Pool. I mean huge influence decades ago. The

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Speaker 1: former president of the St. Louis FED. Is Marvin good

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Speaker 1: Friend a monitoriust like M one, M two, M three

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Speaker 1: and Mr Pool? Or is he a deaf kind of

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Speaker 1: moderist in a modern age? So I think the monterist

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Speaker 1: idea of that is that you and referring to his

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Speaker 1: paper at the Kansas Fat where he was focused on,

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Speaker 1: you know, taking away the lower zero bounds because that's

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Speaker 1: a constraint of multipolicy. Um. You know, that speaks to

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Speaker 1: the view about price stability more thans opposed to the

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Speaker 1: target right. And I think that idea is about that

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Speaker 1: that the ECB that has I think from that perspective

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Speaker 1: of monsters view that Monterrey transmission works better on our

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Speaker 1: price stability than then this target right because it sets

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Speaker 1: too much of a numerical level on inflation as opposed

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Speaker 1: to having you know, around about in faction at two

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Speaker 1: or two. So I think that's really the idea other

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Speaker 1: than they did a freedment view of about mount policy

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Speaker 1: as in and and times velocity equals out boot times prices.

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Speaker 1: That's not what we're talking about here right now. I

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Speaker 1: don't think so. I think it's I think it's important. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I agree to them. I think it's more about I

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Speaker 1: think good Friend is more about I want to take

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Speaker 1: away the constraint on multi policy on the lower Gero bounce.

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Speaker 1: That's that's important. Okay, But Ben, but just because the

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Speaker 1: time we're gonna have to run here in one minute,

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Speaker 1: the great book by Lawrence Meyer of Washington University of St.

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Speaker 1: Louis uh a term at the FED. He got nowhere

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Speaker 1: with Alan Greenspan. Why do we think any governor, including

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Speaker 1: Professor good Friend, is going to get anywhere with Chairman Powell. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and that that's a fair point. I he will be

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Speaker 1: one voice good Friends, one voice on the board. So

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Speaker 1: that is the position. So again back to the earlier question,

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Speaker 1: who's going to be the appointee of the vice chair

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Speaker 1: is critical in that respect. He will have influence. Of course,

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Speaker 1: just point out in the note Charles Blosser and and

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Speaker 1: and and the als past Fisher back into thousand thirteen

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Speaker 1: made it a really strong case to and quee and

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Speaker 1: ultimately Bernanke did follow somewhere through on that on their

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Speaker 1: arguments right, and so a good friend will make that

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Speaker 1: voice too of know how to conduct policy, but the

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Speaker 1: vice chair makes a big difference there. So um I

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Speaker 1: would agree that he will fully influence the policy by himself.

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Speaker 1: Obviously it really heightened the vice chair choice. Uh this morning,

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Speaker 1: and I should mentioned Ben Emmon's thank you so much

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Speaker 1: I'm short, not his terrific essay for his intellectist partners clients.

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