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Speaker 1: Bloombo Business News twenty four hours a day, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: the Radio plus Mobile APT and on your radio. This

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Speaker 1: is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow, breaking

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Speaker 1: economic news. Crossing the Bloomberg. We got to Vitidel Judais

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Speaker 1: with the latest. Good morning, Vinny, Hello Karen. It's the

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Speaker 1: ADP National Employment Report attracts private payrolls. That's showing a

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Speaker 1: gain of one hundred seventy three thousand and May, in

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Speaker 1: line with Wall Street forecasts more than the prior month.

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Speaker 1: The ADP Employment Report showing private payrolls in May rose

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Speaker 1: by one hundred seventy three thousand. At the Bloomberg First

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Speaker 1: Work Desk, company felt, Karen, back to you, very thanks, Vinny,

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Speaker 1: and US talk Indise Futures they are extending their declines

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Speaker 1: this morning. Let's go to the First Word Breaking News

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Speaker 1: desk for today's morning call. Here's Bill Maloney. Good morning, Bill,

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Speaker 1: Good morning Karen. That's right, U s you just have

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Speaker 1: drifted lower since the last time we spoke. Deaf Future

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Speaker 1: is now down twenty seven points, says if he dropped

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Speaker 1: four and nazac uses declined by six. The US ten

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Speaker 1: yield at one point eight three percent, and Japan fell

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Speaker 1: two point three percent overnight, closed back below it's fifty

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Speaker 1: day moving average, while Europe is now trading mixed this morning.

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Speaker 1: On the economic front, ECB kept rates unchanged at a

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Speaker 1: thirty initial jobs claims at ten thirty natural gas storage change,

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Speaker 1: and at eleven o'clock energy inventory numbers After develous night,

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Speaker 1: Costco May comp sales missed estimates. This morning, joy Global

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Speaker 1: q twops beat but cut EPs and revenue forecasts, and

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Speaker 1: Sienna gains nine point eight percent pre market after its results.

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Speaker 1: In deal news, j J reports a packed by Vogue

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Speaker 1: International for about three point three billion, and another news

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Speaker 1: uber received a three and a half billion dollar investment

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Speaker 1: from a SOLIDI wealth fund. Finally, some of your wall

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Speaker 1: sheet upgrades and downgrades, Great Planes Energy cut the underway

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Speaker 1: to over at Barkley's x on Mobile, cut the neutral

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Speaker 1: versus by a Bank of America, Devrid cut the new

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Speaker 1: Shark tread sweets, and finally Zy Links cut the neutral

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Speaker 1: over at Goldman Sachs. Live from the first breaking news

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Speaker 1: desk on bow Maloney care alright, thanks to ill and

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Speaker 1: to hear live breaking news over your Bloomberg type squawk

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Speaker 1: Ago in your terminal. That's s to you a w

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Speaker 1: k go. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike,

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Speaker 1: good morning, have you one Bloomberg Surveillance thrilled to have

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Speaker 1: you with us this morning. Bloomberg Surveillance brought to you

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Speaker 1: by Investco. Investco believes it's time to say go about it,

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Speaker 1: the traditional stock brond allocations, say hello to alternatives as

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Speaker 1: a core part of modern portfolios. Learn more at invesco

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Speaker 1: dot com, slash alts Mike eleven minutes away from a

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Speaker 1: draggy and more importantly, US economic data. As we begin

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Speaker 1: three days, two days coverage of the American Jobs Report,

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Speaker 1: we've got claims today, but also that ADP report, and

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Speaker 1: ADP is what everybody's focused on. An interesting number, one

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Speaker 1: hundred seventy three thousand on the consensus forecast, but better

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Speaker 1: than last month, lower than the two hundred thousand we

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Speaker 1: had been seeing. But here's the interesting thing. The release

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Speaker 1: from a DP does not mention the Verizon strike, and

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Speaker 1: that suggests to me that either it had no impact

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Speaker 1: or um the impact is in there and it is

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Speaker 1: still a hundred seventy three. So therefore there is perhaps

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Speaker 1: some upside risk to tomorrow. We've talked about how the

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Speaker 1: Verizon strike may really uh impact the jobs report tomorrow. Well,

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Speaker 1: this is what you do. I mean, you've been way

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Speaker 1: out front with this. And to be clear here we

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Speaker 1: get that there's x amount on strike, but some of

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Speaker 1: them can be recounted the other way, which sets up

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Speaker 1: a real mystery. Some of them are offset by replacement workers.

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Speaker 1: We just don't know how many. Anyway, let's talk about

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Speaker 1: the European economy because we are about to go to

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Speaker 1: Mark to Mario Draggy, and let's set up for what

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Speaker 1: we want to hear from him. Marco Valley is chief

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Speaker 1: Euros and Economists at UniCredit Research and he's with us now. Marco,

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Speaker 1: no surprise in the headlines. What is it that Mario

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Speaker 1: Draggy could say that would get anybody's attention today? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think that the focus today will be on some

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Speaker 1: possible light up for revisions to the Central banks inflation forecaster,

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Speaker 1: which in a way it comes to the rest of

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Speaker 1: the ECB because obviously they have a big problem of

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Speaker 1: trying to get inflation expectations under control, right, but the

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Speaker 1: uppoord revision is going to be very very moderated, so

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Speaker 1: in a way drugging will probably convey the message that

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Speaker 1: ec is done for now. They are in wait and

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Speaker 1: see mode, waiting for their measure to start working the

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Speaker 1: way through the real economy. But at the same time

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Speaker 1: they must show the market that they have still a

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Speaker 1: munition in case the inflation outook deteriorates further. And then

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Speaker 1: my new reflects mainly the need to keep up expectations

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Speaker 1: of the possibility of further cut of the deposit trade,

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Speaker 1: because that's basically what ECB has left to try to

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Speaker 1: prevent excessive currency appreciation, although my view is that they

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Speaker 1: are unlikely to use it right because they are growing

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Speaker 1: increasingly a here that the side effects are mounting when

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Speaker 1: it comes to negative rates. Where is inflation in Italy?

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Speaker 1: Just as one example, your research note talks about higher

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Speaker 1: oil prices, or at least stable oil prices drifting away

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Speaker 1: the fears of disinflation. Do I Do I understand correctly?

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Speaker 1: CPI year over year in Italy is a negative statistic?

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Speaker 1: Is that right? Yet? It's yes, that's that's right. That's right,

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Speaker 1: And he's expected to move progressively higher over the course

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Speaker 1: of the second half of the year, mainly because this

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Speaker 1: bet effect on energy will start kicking. So basically, even

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Speaker 1: if oil prices do not move north from here, the

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Speaker 1: bet effect would be now inflation clearly positive, right, but

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Speaker 1: far that's for sure, Mike to review in inflation in

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Speaker 1: Italy and it's sort of been all over the place.

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Speaker 1: I'll get this chart out. Well, I can't get it out,

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Speaker 1: my good, Why don't you continue? I'm gonna try to

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Speaker 1: get this out here. Well, the other question, I mean

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Speaker 1: obviously was a revision to inflation because of oil prices,

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Speaker 1: but what about the growth? First quarter growth in the

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Speaker 1: Arizone came in stronger than anticipated. Does that raise the

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Speaker 1: full year forecast? Yeah? I think so. I think so.

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Speaker 1: The the e t B was pleasantly surprised by the

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Speaker 1: first quarter gross as some other people in the market.

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Speaker 1: Where so may view is that the carry over will

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Speaker 1: be enough to have them increase. There are two thousand

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Speaker 1: and sixteen forecast by a tense so it would be

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Speaker 1: certainly not great, but still let me high. So that's

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Speaker 1: that that that's you know, I think that we have

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Speaker 1: to to take it for the time being. Right, that's

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Speaker 1: what we get. But is you know, very quickly here

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Speaker 1: the run rate of inflation, it'll eas to be above

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Speaker 1: two percent. There's a lot of volatility, and now we

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Speaker 1: flatline just below zero percent. Is draggy holding court over

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Speaker 1: the new Japan? I mean, is that really what's going

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Speaker 1: on here is a sustaining chronic weak nominal GDP because

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Speaker 1: there's no inflation. Well, no, I would not say so.

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Speaker 1: I would say that certainly is inflation has been tracked

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Speaker 1: lower by especially but the big dropping ent prices. Right,

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Speaker 1: But if we look at core inflation measures across the US,

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Speaker 1: and including in countries where economic activities growing more robust

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Speaker 1: than the labor market is doing quite good, like in Germany,

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Speaker 1: you see that there is not really that much of

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Speaker 1: an upside trend in in co inflation. And this is

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Speaker 1: my view, together with the fact that the wages are

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Speaker 1: still drifting lower. This is my view of easy mainly

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Speaker 1: concerned of right. But when you look at the let's say,

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Speaker 1: if you look at that, well, we're gonna mark We're

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Speaker 1: gonna have to leave it there, unfortunately, because we've got

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Speaker 1: to go to the dragging press conference with the coverage

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Speaker 1: of that worldwide Bloomberg surveillance coming up there. With all

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