Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg's sound on
Speaker 1: One thing I have not done. I've never pretended to
Speaker 1: be a police officer. And you know what's so funny,
Speaker 1: I am with men in police all its actually comes
Speaker 1: time to do something about inflation. Around the kitchen table,
Speaker 1: Republicans in Congress said no. Bloomberg Sound on Politics, Policy
Speaker 1: and Perspective from DC's top name. Did Joe Biden win
Speaker 1: the election, Congresswoman Green, Joe Biden is the President of
Speaker 1: the United States. Absolutely, but you pushed a big lie
Speaker 1: that said he did not win the elections. They couldn't
Speaker 1: actually say nice things about one another. Bloomberg Sound On
Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio Poll show Democrats momentum slowing.
Speaker 1: Welcome to the fastest hour in politics and not the
Speaker 1: headline Dems want to hear. With just over three weeks
Speaker 1: to the election, we'll get inside the new numbers and
Speaker 1: the money with political scientist Lincoln Mitchell, Associate research scholar
Speaker 1: at Columbia University, will check in with Bloomberg. Government Zach Cohen,
Speaker 1: who's on the ground in Utah ahead of tonight's Senate debate,
Speaker 1: and as Herschel Walker answers to the police badge and
Speaker 1: the get Well card will get analysis on the race
Speaker 1: that could decide who controls the Senate with our signature
Speaker 1: panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Chanzano and Rick Davis, or
Speaker 1: with us for an important hour ahead that you will
Speaker 1: not hear anywhere else. Early voting is now underway in
Speaker 1: states like Georgia and Ohio, and with just over three
Speaker 1: weeks to election day, Democrats may have peaked according to
Speaker 1: the latest national polls. A new New York Times Siena
Speaker 1: College polls just out this morning finds of likely voters
Speaker 1: planned to vote for a Republican for Congress compared to
Speaker 1: who say they'll vote for a Democrats. Democrats held a
Speaker 1: one point lead in that same poll in September of
Speaker 1: voters say economic concerns are the most important issues facing America.
Speaker 1: That's up from mid thirties in July. Separately, a CBS
Speaker 1: new use you Gov poll show simple if the economy
Speaker 1: is getting worse, CBS projecting Republicans take the House. President
Speaker 1: Biden over the weekend on the stump in Oregon says
Speaker 1: inflation will get worse if Republicans win. It actually comes
Speaker 1: time to do something about inflation. Around the kitchen table,
Speaker 1: Republicans and Congress said no. If they take control, there said,
Speaker 1: their first aim is to get rid of the Inflation
Speaker 1: Reduction Act, and inflation is going to go up, not down.
Speaker 1: Your inflation is going to go up, not down. That
Speaker 1: message does not seem to be resonating, and we bring
Speaker 1: in Lincoln Mitchell, off the Top political Analysts, adjunct Associate
Speaker 1: Research Scholar at the Institute of War and Peace Studies
Speaker 1: at Columbia University. Lincoln, welcome back to sound On. Oh,
Speaker 1: thank you for having me so always for it to
Speaker 1: be here. So it's it's not just one, but two
Speaker 1: new polls show momentum stalling for Democrats in the final
Speaker 1: weeks here of this cycle. Narrow but distinct is how
Speaker 1: the New York Times describes republic Blickins lead right now,
Speaker 1: Are they right? Yes? If the election were helps today,
Speaker 1: probably there's still you know, a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 1: And I'm not gonna say a lot can happen, because
Speaker 1: a lot was never gonna happen. A lot of minds
Speaker 1: are never going to be changed. But a little can happen.
Speaker 1: In elections of the twenty one century or one of
Speaker 1: Boston the margin. So I don't think this is over yet.
Speaker 1: If I were Republican strategist, I would not quite be
Speaker 1: popping the Champagne clerks. Well, it's interesting one on the margins.
Speaker 1: Here the time Ciena poll finds independent women made the
Speaker 1: biggest shift. And I had to read this a couple
Speaker 1: of times. Didn't seem right. In September they favored Democrats
Speaker 1: by fourteen points. Now independent women, even in the wake
Speaker 1: of the Row ruling, I thought it rationalize a shift
Speaker 1: like that. The first thing I thought was, how what
Speaker 1: kind of a sample are we talking about? Right, independent women?
Speaker 1: If you have a fift person pole, you know which,
Speaker 1: I don't think the polls are that big. Necessarily you're
Speaker 1: talking about maybe two people, of course, which is not
Speaker 1: a huge number. My sense is that in the initial
Speaker 1: wake of the Dobb's decision, the Democratic Party hit very,
Speaker 1: very hard on abortion right, and now they've pulled back
Speaker 1: a little bit. And the question for the Democratic Party
Speaker 1: is will that be smart enough to go back to
Speaker 1: that as the closing argument, because that is the argument
Speaker 1: that moves key voters. Talking about Trump and democracy, those
Speaker 1: are all based arguments, right, But if you want to
Speaker 1: take voters who are kind of republic and curious worried
Speaker 1: about inflation. This is an issue that can bring them
Speaker 1: to the Democrats. So if they don't hit hard on it,
Speaker 1: those voters will go Republican and it won't be a
Speaker 1: good year from the Democrat. And right before the election Lincoln,
Speaker 1: there's going to be a FED meeting and likely another
Speaker 1: jumbo rate hike, and that's gonna be splashed around the
Speaker 1: front pages and the top of newscasts as people are
Speaker 1: making their final decisions. And remember with inflation, you know,
Speaker 1: there are economic indicators like unemployment just for or the
Speaker 1: stock market, right which if you don't have stock or
Speaker 1: if your job is steady, doesn't necessarily affect you. But
Speaker 1: I can't think of a single American who's not affective.
Speaker 1: I mean, I just went to the grocery store to
Speaker 1: day and was kind of shocked and buying not much,
Speaker 1: you know. Um, So this is very real and in
Speaker 1: my view, the Democrats have stumbled here because and this
Speaker 1: is something I would have thought Biden would be good at.
Speaker 1: He's not communicated. This is a serious problem, and I understand,
Speaker 1: and I want to do something about it instead. The
Speaker 1: first reaction of Democrats was to deny it and give
Speaker 1: Biden cover and that was a mistake. Alex fairness to
Speaker 1: Biden and the Democratic Party. Nobody has a solution for this.
Speaker 1: I mean, the Republicans are very good at, to use
Speaker 1: a technical term, sketching, but they don't have solutions. And
Speaker 1: I think they're up front about that. But if it's
Speaker 1: going to get them elective, they're going to use them. Well,
Speaker 1: you know what Joe Biden would say. First of all,
Speaker 1: a year ago, I made that my priority. I told
Speaker 1: everyone that, I said, I feel your pain. And look,
Speaker 1: we we passed three or four pieces of legislation. They say,
Speaker 1: you're going to bring prices down Lincoln. That's right, and
Speaker 1: Biden has a legislative record to run on it, but
Speaker 1: inflation is not part of that record. Right. He got
Speaker 1: that money out the door, He got the vaccination and
Speaker 1: people had a hundred millions vaccinations was never going to happen.
Speaker 1: He got the infrastructure built done, he got you know,
Speaker 1: the the Inflation Reduction Act, which is really a climate
Speaker 1: change built on. He's done a lot, but you know,
Speaker 1: the front and center issue of inflation and the inner
Speaker 1: ability of the Democrats to communicate that you know, this
Speaker 1: is rough, I understand this, and there are other important
Speaker 1: things out there we have to think about. They haven't
Speaker 1: done that because they've played down inflation went to every American.
Speaker 1: It's very obvious that inflations real CBS News of course
Speaker 1: a separate poll, but similar trend rights For two months,
Speaker 1: the Democrats chipped away at the Republicans lead in the
Speaker 1: battle for House control, and it's followed by a butt.
Speaker 1: The momentum has stalled, at least for now. How could
Speaker 1: they have held onto those numbers or was the timing
Speaker 1: just not in democrats favor this cycle? I mean, maybe
Speaker 1: I was thinking differently back in the late summer, but
Speaker 1: I didn't really think the Democrats were ever going to
Speaker 1: hold onto the House my sense, and I still think
Speaker 1: this is possible that if you if the Democrats end
Speaker 1: up with somewhere between a hundred two, the Republicans will
Speaker 1: obviously end up with control of the House. But that's
Speaker 1: not a red wig, given given redistricting, given the normal
Speaker 1: but you know midterm election patterns, the Republicans could you
Speaker 1: could see the Republican walking away from this election with
Speaker 1: two five just to use a round number of House
Speaker 1: seats fifty Senate set and that's not I mean, if
Speaker 1: I'm the Republican Party, I'm thinking, Wow, we didn't have
Speaker 1: Trump on the ticket, we had an unpopular president, installations
Speaker 1: through the roof, and this is the best we can do.
Speaker 1: And and of course they're only getting those fifty sentences
Speaker 1: because they're cleaning up in these tiny states with twelve voters.
Speaker 1: The thing is, nobody's arguing about the House anymore. Right now.
Speaker 1: Now the argument is can can Democrats keep the Senate?
Speaker 1: And more and more people are saying no, Well we'll
Speaker 1: first we'll remember that a year ago it was a
Speaker 1: something they would keep neither and then what happened is
Speaker 1: the Republicans now and I don't think we should get
Speaker 1: into this, nominated a spate of really terrible candidates. I
Speaker 1: mean Dr oz herschall Walker Blake Master who sounds more
Speaker 1: like a golf tournament, and a politician in Arizona. But
Speaker 1: but but what you have to understand, I think is
Speaker 1: that is that the Republicans nominate those candidates because that's
Speaker 1: who they are. This is the party that if Donald
Speaker 1: Trump says jumped, you know, a plurality of primary voters
Speaker 1: say off of what and then they end up with
Speaker 1: people like herschell Walker. So this is could still in
Speaker 1: this race. I mean, you've got my gosh, look at
Speaker 1: the scandal with herschel Walker. People applauded his performance in
Speaker 1: the debate on Friday night. He could be the next
Speaker 1: Senator from Georgia. He could still win this race. But
Speaker 1: the fact that they have to spend money and they
Speaker 1: have to worry about Georgia is not something they thought
Speaker 1: they would have to do going in. And the other
Speaker 1: point here is and I would just not the same candidate,
Speaker 1: but I'm struck by You know, you could make the
Speaker 1: argument herschel Walker is just axiomatically unqualified to be in
Speaker 1: the center, and I think that's a given. At the
Speaker 1: same time, you can make the argument that that John
Speaker 1: Federman is axiomatically not healthy enough to being the Senate,
Speaker 1: at least for now. But one of the real striking
Speaker 1: things we're seeing over and over in this century is
Speaker 1: that American elections look more and more like parliamentary elections.
Speaker 1: All that matter is the party, right, because you know,
Speaker 1: as long as Federman has a pulse, he's gonna vote
Speaker 1: for Chuck Schumer for leader and for everything. Biden wants
Speaker 1: every major thing Biden wants. And as long as herschel Walker,
Speaker 1: you know, can find his way around the out of
Speaker 1: the Senate clokeroom to his desk, he'll do the opposite.
Speaker 1: And that's how voters are thinking about this. This election
Speaker 1: is about Walker and Warnock and Federman and Oz, but
Speaker 1: ultimately it's about Biden Trump and that's still how voters
Speaker 1: see it. Well, I'll tell you it's interesting. Some of
Speaker 1: the numbers crunched today by the popular information website tip
Speaker 1: Sheet whatever I should call it pretty startling, thirty five
Speaker 1: point six million dollars in corporate donations. These are not
Speaker 1: people picking up the the phone and donating five dollars
Speaker 1: thirty five and a half million dollars to election deniers,
Speaker 1: those deemed election deniers, incumbents or or otherwise challengers by
Speaker 1: the Washington Post. And this isn't just a couple of people,
Speaker 1: as you well know. We're talking about two election denying
Speaker 1: candidates as described here. The companies on this list A
Speaker 1: T and T ups, home depot, major publicly traded companies.
Speaker 1: Boeing is in the top five. Reinforcing the comment you
Speaker 1: just made. But it tells me that people who run
Speaker 1: major companies are more concerned about lower tax right than
Speaker 1: about democracy. That's just the bottom line. And that number
Speaker 1: of elections deniers and the number and the money, those
Speaker 1: are both low ball accounts because that doesn't include state
Speaker 1: legislative candidates. It doesn't include a situation where somebody is
Speaker 1: not exactly election denier, but not exactly willing to stand
Speaker 1: the record that Biden is the president. So it's actually,
Speaker 1: I mean, the republic election denial is the front center
Speaker 1: issue for the Republican Party, and I think that's kind
Speaker 1: of an underreported notion because it's so frightening to people
Speaker 1: to realize this is what's become of our two party system.
Speaker 1: I've worked on elections all over the world and one thing,
Speaker 1: kind of basic thing that we've talked about in that
Speaker 1: kind of work is that if the if democracy depends
Speaker 1: on one party winning, then it's not a democracy. And
Speaker 1: that's what we are here. An that's a tough statement,
Speaker 1: and it does reinforce this. Uh, these numbers reinforce the
Speaker 1: point that you're making there. It also reinforces the point
Speaker 1: that people want to vote for a winner. Right If
Speaker 1: the impression is that Republicans are taking the House, that's
Speaker 1: where the corporate money is going. Well for the corporate money. Yes,
Speaker 1: they want to back a winner because they want election
Speaker 1: denying or not, it's not a right, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: you know J D. Vance in that debate with Tim
Speaker 1: Ryan in Ohio, that's will be very interesting. He said,
Speaker 1: why are you because Ryan was attacking him for supporting
Speaker 1: all the election deniers and being part of that, and
Speaker 1: he said, why are you consolt concerned with that when Ohio,
Speaker 1: Ohio wins can't afford food and grant gat And that
Speaker 1: is a very concise statement of the Republican position because
Speaker 1: the flat out says we don't care about democracy. And
Speaker 1: Ryan had you know, he said, Ryan is a smart guy.
Speaker 1: But the response, the democratic response overall, has to be
Speaker 1: these things are related, right when you vote for these
Speaker 1: when you vote for candidates backed by these corporations whose
Speaker 1: response to inflation sent to further raised prices because they
Speaker 1: can you know, you're that's what's driving information. Fascinating conversation
Speaker 1: as always Lincoln Mitchell Professor and a lot more as
Speaker 1: you can hear. In fact, he is the adjunct Associate
Speaker 1: Research Scholar at the Institute of War and Peace Studies
Speaker 1: Columbia University. Many thanks for being with us here. Lincoln
Speaker 1: Mitchell speaking of the methodology in those polls. The New
Speaker 1: York Times poll survey seven ninety two likely voters, four
Speaker 1: point one percent margin of error, bigger poll for CBS.
Speaker 1: They talked to more than two thousand registered voters. I'm
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Son on
Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. A fascinating takeaway from
Speaker 1: this New York Times Siena poll as the winning formula.
Speaker 1: The winning Democratic coalition during the Trump presidency relied, of course,
Speaker 1: you remember, on a significant gender gap and on winning
Speaker 1: women buy a wide margin. This pole just out shows
Speaker 1: Republicans have entirely erased what had been an eleven point
Speaker 1: edge for Democrats among women last month in twenty two
Speaker 1: congressional races to a statistical tie. In October, we assembled
Speaker 1: our panel. Rick Davis back with us and Jennie Chanzano
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributors. What's your take on this, genie. The
Speaker 1: presidents could be knocking on doors around the country right now,
Speaker 1: but he's going to be spending the bulk of this
Speaker 1: week either in Rehobeth Beach or here in Washington, d C.
Speaker 1: What can Democrats do well? The president is doing the
Speaker 1: right thing. You know, he needs to go where he
Speaker 1: can be helpful. There's some states and some districts where
Speaker 1: he simply won't be helpful. In fact, he'll be the opposite.
Speaker 1: So he is out raising money, he's out with candidates
Speaker 1: who need him and in whose districts and state he
Speaker 1: can you know, at least increased turnout. The most you know,
Speaker 1: sort of powerful Democrat going out at this point is
Speaker 1: Barack Obama and second of that seems to be Pete
Speaker 1: Buddha Judge. And the argument Democrats have to make over
Speaker 1: and over again is the focus on the insecurity that
Speaker 1: women feel about their health and their bodies as it
Speaker 1: pertains to abortion. They have to talk about the presence
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump and the candidates he's gotten on the
Speaker 1: back this year successfully so. And they also have to say,
Speaker 1: unlike Republicans, they do have an answer to the problem
Speaker 1: of the economy and inflation. You know, one thing that
Speaker 1: the President has been saying accurately is show us what
Speaker 1: you're going to do. It's not enough just to say
Speaker 1: you're going to get into office. You have to say
Speaker 1: what you're gonna do when you're in there, and Republicans
Speaker 1: haven't answered on that point. Well, Rick, what do you
Speaker 1: make of this? At eleven point edges? This is a
Speaker 1: story of just sort of vanishing? Is it a story
Speaker 1: of bad timing and proximity? The fact that the role
Speaker 1: ruling happened a little bit earlier in the cycle than
Speaker 1: that might have been beneficial to Democrats? Ors are more
Speaker 1: at work here. Well, I think a little bit of both, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, I do think it's cyclical. I do think
Speaker 1: this issue around abortion peaked early. You look at you
Speaker 1: know where it was back at the end of June.
Speaker 1: I mean when you look at even things like Google
Speaker 1: search results for Roe v. Wade or abortion, it was
Speaker 1: it was super high, right, And that was at a
Speaker 1: time when Democrats were catching their win and starting to
Speaker 1: create some of this polling advantage, especially with independent women.
Speaker 1: And now economy is ahead of abortion, it's ahead of
Speaker 1: Roe v. Wade searches. So you don't have to go
Speaker 1: very far to find sort of empirical evidence that people
Speaker 1: have changed their their their priorities, they've changed their point
Speaker 1: of view. Um, I don't disagree with Lincoln and Jeannie
Speaker 1: who say you've got to close a campaign with one
Speaker 1: of the strongest issues of abortion. But they've never developed.
Speaker 1: Democrats have never developed a very good talking point around
Speaker 1: the economy and inflation, and certainly now with the advent
Speaker 1: of people talking about the inevitability of a recession, it's
Speaker 1: only gotten to be a steeper curve. And right now
Speaker 1: Democrats are running out of time. Joe Biden isn't given
Speaker 1: him any assistance his numbers, even though his his personal
Speaker 1: approval is up. When you look at his numbers on
Speaker 1: the economy, it's a disaster. So unlikely he's going to
Speaker 1: be able to, you know, change the dynamic. I'll tell
Speaker 1: you that the president's travel schedule flom large in the
Speaker 1: White House briefing room today and Karine Jean Pierre, the
Speaker 1: Press secretary, was playing defense. As you can imagine on this.
Speaker 1: He is only scheduled to be in Pennsylvania this week.
Speaker 1: We've got three weeks to go here. Only one day
Speaker 1: he will be campaigning, and that is with John Fetterman
Speaker 1: in in a state that he actually refers to as
Speaker 1: a as a bit of a home state. Here's Karine
Speaker 1: John Pierre in response, So last week, we spent four
Speaker 1: days in the country. Right. We left on Wednesday, came
Speaker 1: back Saturday night, to be more specific, two am on Sunday.
Speaker 1: Some of us walked into our house at two am
Speaker 1: one Sunday. Um. And the week before that, he spent
Speaker 1: four days out into the country. Uh. Some of that
Speaker 1: was yes for the hurricane in Puerto Rico, uh and
Speaker 1: going to see the recovery there. Us another day was
Speaker 1: in Florida to talk to the American people. A lot
Speaker 1: of people got up for work at two o'clock in
Speaker 1: the morning or home from work, Genie on Sunday? Is
Speaker 1: that the best way to relate with Americans here? And
Speaker 1: and you know, why not just say the president's busy? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I mean the response that you know is wanting. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, there is a way for the White House
Speaker 1: to explain the president's schedule. He is doing everything he
Speaker 1: can to get Democrats elected to maintain the House and
Speaker 1: the Senate. He has you know, his his schedule is
Speaker 1: exactly what it should be. And there's no question about that.
Speaker 1: Presidents cannot in a midterm year go where they're not wanted.
Speaker 1: They will, they will hurt their own party. But I
Speaker 1: just want to say on this inflation economy issue. You know,
Speaker 1: Raphael Warnock didn't have the best debate on Friday night,
Speaker 1: but on that issue he did turn the tables on
Speaker 1: Walker when he talked about the Inflation Reduction Act and said,
Speaker 1: you've if you would have voted against it, you would
Speaker 1: have voted to keep prescription drugs insulin costs up. That's
Speaker 1: the answer for Democrats. They've got to say we are
Speaker 1: actually producing for you. That's why that vote was so important.
Speaker 1: On the I r A, they aren't making that case.
Speaker 1: But Warnock started to get there on Friday night, and
Speaker 1: Walker had no response to that. I'll give you a
Speaker 1: taste to that. I think he should tell the people
Speaker 1: of Georgia, while he thinks they should have expensive insulin
Speaker 1: and while the farmer suitable companies should be able to
Speaker 1: charge us whatever they like. Well, first of all, respond,
Speaker 1: you know, I believe in reducing insulin. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, you gotta eat right because he may not
Speaker 1: know and I know many people that's on inculin, and
Speaker 1: unless you have eating right, insulin is doing you're no good.
Speaker 1: So they eat right. Line. We got that. This went
Speaker 1: viral over the weekend. Herschel Walker was asked about it
Speaker 1: again today on nbcating, stand those states what you gotta
Speaker 1: eat right for if you taken instillent, you still gotta
Speaker 1: eat the proper diet. Is that a Is that a
Speaker 1: response Rick Davis for Republican after that vote, Well, certainly
Speaker 1: not for my daughter who's a typeline juvenile diabetic and
Speaker 1: without light uh insulin, she would not be alive. So
Speaker 1: I think he's got to tighten up that message a
Speaker 1: little bit. We're gonna spend, by the way, the end
Speaker 1: of the broadcast our our last fifteen minutes, We're gonna
Speaker 1: dig into the herschel Walker Raphael Warnock phenomenon, not just
Speaker 1: the debate, but everything that's been surrounding it, because a
Speaker 1: lot has happened since Friday and night, and we're gonna
Speaker 1: go to Utah next with another debate set for this evening.
Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. Welcome to Bloomberg Sound On.
Speaker 1: As we turned to the race in Utah, as mentioned,
Speaker 1: Senator Mike Lee Is, Challenger Evan McMullen and Independent have
Speaker 1: a tall task ahead of them and what will be
Speaker 1: their only debate tonight. As I read from Zach Cohen's
Speaker 1: peace on the terminal. They have to win over a
Speaker 1: big block of undecided and uh, these numbers obtained by
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Government, sixteen percent of likely voters say they are undecided.
Speaker 1: That's uh, that's one poll of separate pole that Bloomberg
Speaker 1: government is putting up here shows uh, not too far apart,
Speaker 1: twelve percent undecided. Mike Lee ahead but not by a
Speaker 1: lot and below. That's why we discussed on Friday his
Speaker 1: plea on Fox News the Republican incumbent for Mitt Romney
Speaker 1: of course, also Utah to get on board and endorsement.
Speaker 1: Please get on board, help me win re election. Help
Speaker 1: us do that. You can get your entire family to
Speaker 1: donate to me, please. And Evan McMullin shows up on
Speaker 1: Meet the Press, My goodness talking to Chuck Todd about this.
Speaker 1: And if you, if you are elected, will you caucus
Speaker 1: with the Republicans? Would you vote for Mitch McConnell. These
Speaker 1: are the questions that are being asked now in a
Speaker 1: race that not a lot of people were looking at
Speaker 1: a couple of months ago. Well, look, the parties are
Speaker 1: going to decide who they choose to lead them. I
Speaker 1: won't be part of that as an independent and whatever
Speaker 1: scenario Chuck. The parties in Washington and others, they're going
Speaker 1: to have to figure out what this means for them
Speaker 1: on their own. I'm committed to maintaining my independence. I'm
Speaker 1: building a cross partisan coalition. I also believe that our
Speaker 1: country just needs more independent leaders who will stand up
Speaker 1: to party bosses on both sides. That's the story he's
Speaker 1: telling right now. And he's friends with Mitt Romney, so
Speaker 1: mikely is not likely going to get donations from MIT's
Speaker 1: entire family. The two polls I mentioned, by the way,
Speaker 1: do have Lee ahead, Just not buy a lot. Like
Speaker 1: I said, forty favored by and one poll in the
Speaker 1: other Bloomberg government. Zack Cohen has made his way to
Speaker 1: Utah for the one and done tonight. Zach, welcome. It's
Speaker 1: great to have you here. What's the job then? How
Speaker 1: how do you appeal to undecided voters? You have to
Speaker 1: play it to the center. This is really one of
Speaker 1: the more fascinating races to watch this cycle, precisely because
Speaker 1: it does not comport with the normal partisan lines that
Speaker 1: we're seeing a lot of Senate races. You've got sender
Speaker 1: Mike Lee, one of the more conservative members of the
Speaker 1: Senate on one side, who really tonight has to really
Speaker 1: start coalescing support from Republicans who are not sold on
Speaker 1: his reelection race, despite the fact that Utah's is a
Speaker 1: rather red state voted for Trump by over twenty points,
Speaker 1: and Ed McMullan, I would say, has a harder task
Speaker 1: trying to introduce himself to those voters who don't know
Speaker 1: him yet and try to get a coalition of not
Speaker 1: just Democrats and Independence but also Republicans that would agree
Speaker 1: to trade Lee for McMullan in the Senate and hand
Speaker 1: a and the Senate something of a of a potential
Speaker 1: swing vote that could be really critical on major pieces
Speaker 1: of legislation. You spoke with the data analyst in your piece,
Speaker 1: who are referred to a double digit share of undecided
Speaker 1: voters that we're talking about here showing quote a very
Speaker 1: low engagement state this cycle. What what does that mean?
Speaker 1: So the poll that we were able to get our
Speaker 1: hands on, six percent, as you mentioned, were undecided between
Speaker 1: Lee and McMullan, which is a rather large number of voters,
Speaker 1: especially considering there were only a couple of weeks out.
Speaker 1: Is it because they're not paying attention though I think
Speaker 1: it's also just a more complicated race. There's no Democrat
Speaker 1: in this race, so really Democrats are the ones that
Speaker 1: make up the big share of these undecided voters who
Speaker 1: are looking at Mike Lee on one side on the
Speaker 1: right and Nevi McMullen on the you know, the center left,
Speaker 1: and trying to decide whether McMullan is going to be
Speaker 1: their guy in this race. And so I think a
Speaker 1: lot of voters are going to make up their decisions
Speaker 1: as we get closer and closer to all action day.
Speaker 1: But certainly this debate provides both candidates an opportunity to
Speaker 1: address those candidates those voters that aren't sold on them yet.
Speaker 1: Does low engagement equal low turnout? It could. Mid Term
Speaker 1: elections do generally have a lower turnout than a presidential race.
Speaker 1: That's actually true among populations that tend to favor Democrats. Typically,
Speaker 1: you know, Republican voters are a little more consistent in
Speaker 1: coming out to the polls. Um, So I think the
Speaker 1: certainly the combination of a mid term cycle. You don't
Speaker 1: have a presidential election on the top of the ballot,
Speaker 1: um and not and no governor's race either. Um. The
Speaker 1: Senate race really is the only race to come out
Speaker 1: for and doesn't really give voters as much to come
Speaker 1: out for, especially if it's not clear that the Senate
Speaker 1: UH control is going to be decided based on this race. Well,
Speaker 1: how does it feel now that you're there? Are people
Speaker 1: actively talking about mid terms? Are they talking issues? Who's
Speaker 1: winning the sign war? I think we're gonna find out
Speaker 1: later at the at the debate. I'm still at my hotel,
Speaker 1: to be honest with you, but I think folks UH
Speaker 1: folks with are certainly seeing plenty of TV ads. You know,
Speaker 1: I think the Club for Growth has come in and
Speaker 1: spent over three million dollars trying to buttress Mike Lee
Speaker 1: from the right and attacking McMullan on a sort of
Speaker 1: conservative bona fide days, and McMullan spending you know, a
Speaker 1: couple of you know, two million dollars something like that, arguing, Hey,
Speaker 1: I'm going to be the independent voice in the Senate
Speaker 1: UM And so, you know, I didn't see a ton
Speaker 1: of campaign signs on the way into town yesterday, but
Speaker 1: certainly if you turn on a TV it's hard to
Speaker 1: miss the advertising. Enjoy the show tonight, come back and
Speaker 1: see as soon. Zach Cullen Bloomberg Government reporting from Utah
Speaker 1: on the Senate race out there. This is an interesting one,
Speaker 1: uh and I'd love to just get some quick impressions
Speaker 1: from the panel here, Jennie Schanzano, Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics Contributors.
Speaker 1: If you're walking into an event like this, a debate
Speaker 1: like this one tonight, Rick, how do you thread the
Speaker 1: needle on? You know, look, if you're Mike Lee being
Speaker 1: a good Republican but also appealing to undecided and Evan
Speaker 1: McMullen as an independent, just defining that is difficult for people. Well,
Speaker 1: I think it's really up to Evan tonight. I mean,
Speaker 1: people know Mike Lee, right, he's a well established political
Speaker 1: figure in the idea that you're going to change anybody's
Speaker 1: mind about him is pretty limited. But Evan McMullen is
Speaker 1: a bit of an oddball. You know, he's an independent
Speaker 1: running in a decidedly you know, blue and red state,
Speaker 1: and and he gets a chance tonight to say, you know,
Speaker 1: how he feels about Joe Biden, how he feels about
Speaker 1: inflation and what Joe Biden's done. You know, he gets
Speaker 1: to talk a little bit about abortion, you know, and
Speaker 1: try to finger his way through a pretty uh, pretty
Speaker 1: conservative state. So it's really all about Evan McMullen in
Speaker 1: my score book, Genie, how do you slice that one?
Speaker 1: Knowing as Zack said, there's no Democrat in the race here,
Speaker 1: so it kind of changes the strategy. Yeah, and you know,
Speaker 1: I think I agree with Rick. It is up to
Speaker 1: Evan McMullan to explain who he is and what he
Speaker 1: can do. And I thought fascinating over the weekend he
Speaker 1: was making the case that an election of an independent
Speaker 1: voice like his and he said he won't caucus with
Speaker 1: either party over six years. He said that that is
Speaker 1: going to give this more power than they've ever had.
Speaker 1: So to me, I thought he was making the case that,
Speaker 1: you know, much like unlike we have in the United States,
Speaker 1: he's going to have more power outside the party, which
Speaker 1: is an absolutely new argument to make. And if he
Speaker 1: can do it, God bless him, it'll be duplicated if
Speaker 1: if it works, Genie and Rick stand by as we
Speaker 1: look towards what in the world happens next. In Georgia,
Speaker 1: we had a little taste of the Herschel Raphael Warrntock
Speaker 1: debate from Friday. There's a lot more ahead, I'm Joe Matthew.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. That is a I pointed out the
Speaker 1: fact that he claimed to be in law enforcement, to
Speaker 1: be a police officer. One thing I have not done.
Speaker 1: I've never pretended to be a police officer. And you
Speaker 1: know what's so funny, I am wit minute police all letters.
Speaker 1: And this response was to produce a fake that's a
Speaker 1: bad that I was given by a police officer. And
Speaker 1: I do have the bad. I cared with me all
Speaker 1: the time. It's not it's a real bad. It's not
Speaker 1: a fake bad. It is a real bad. That's badges
Speaker 1: from uh this bad and I have badges all over
Speaker 1: then all over Georgia. I ask you to put that
Speaker 1: proper way where it's not a problem. This is real,
Speaker 1: And he said, I have a problem. This is from
Speaker 1: my hometown. This is from Johnson County, from the share
Speaker 1: from Johnson County, which is a legit badge. Everyone can
Speaker 1: make fun, but this bad you mean it right if
Speaker 1: they let me finish. I've been very transparent about my life. He,
Speaker 1: on the other hand, claimed to be a police officer.
Speaker 1: He's not, even though he produced a badge on the
Speaker 1: Friday night, claimed to work for the FBI clearly did
Speaker 1: not if anything happened in this counter I have a
Speaker 1: right to work with the police getting things done. It's
Speaker 1: a real bad. It's not a fake bad. It is
Speaker 1: a real bad. But badge is legit, he says Herschell Walkers,
Speaker 1: speaking again with NBC News, they got the cell phone,
Speaker 1: answering to one of the more bizarre moments of the
Speaker 1: mid term election cycle, his choice to flash a police
Speaker 1: badge during his debate, or did he say it was
Speaker 1: an FBI accident? Senator Rappael Warnock a regular tracknet and
Speaker 1: so we must reassemble the panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie
Speaker 1: Schanzano are our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors who knew
Speaker 1: the full version there from is it Ray Anthony that
Speaker 1: thinks swings man? Rick Davis, I don't know what you
Speaker 1: would have told Raphael Warnock to do, because it almost
Speaker 1: seemed like they felt the prop was coming here. He
Speaker 1: pulls the back. You saw him, uh, quite a bit earlier,
Speaker 1: reach into the jacket. He very slowly pulled out the badge,
Speaker 1: and apparently he does say now in this interview he
Speaker 1: carried it with him everywhere he goes He did not, however,
Speaker 1: prove to us that it was an actual badge that
Speaker 1: allowed him to arrest, give him arresting rights, that he
Speaker 1: was in fact a trained police officers had been alleged
Speaker 1: where are you on props at debates? Well, props are
Speaker 1: always a controversial thing, uh, And I'd say that what
Speaker 1: I noticed about this to it wasn't the prop itself,
Speaker 1: because you kind of hoped and realized he was gonna
Speaker 1: show the badge. He was gonna whip out that badge
Speaker 1: at some point. But like the incredible reaction by the moderator,
Speaker 1: I mean, it's, oh my god, over the top. People
Speaker 1: will be talking about her for a long time. A
Speaker 1: schoolmarm's got nothing on her. She was not going to
Speaker 1: let him show his badge. And that became part of
Speaker 1: this show. And and that's the unfortunate part about a
Speaker 1: lot of these debates, as the moderator kind of gets
Speaker 1: in the way the message and and becomes the message.
Speaker 1: And I think that's the case here. Look, I mean,
Speaker 1: every time he takes that badge out, he's talking about
Speaker 1: how much he loves police, and that is a good
Speaker 1: campaign tactic. And until somebody, you know, but in person ground,
Speaker 1: it takes it away. Look, I mean, from what I
Speaker 1: can tell, the conversation says he's had with interviews like today, Um,
Speaker 1: he's not looking to you know, pretend to be a cop.
Speaker 1: He's looking to help the cops anyway. Canon When the
Speaker 1: Sheriff of Johnson County was asked about it, he says, yeah,
Speaker 1: we we look forward to him being helpful to us
Speaker 1: anytime he wants to be. So, like you know, he
Speaker 1: he's got it. He's got it covered. He's not trying
Speaker 1: to be a copy. He's a cop wanna be And
Speaker 1: you know how many how many people sit around hopeful
Speaker 1: that there are people who are willing to help the cops.
Speaker 1: So I'm not explaining this away. It's a crazy thing
Speaker 1: that happened, but like you know, it's probably crazy and
Speaker 1: helpful to him. Right, I'm so crazy. I love cops. Uh. Look,
Speaker 1: I guess did it help Elvis Pressley Genie? I'm not sure,
Speaker 1: but I want to bring you back into the debate
Speaker 1: this one moment because everyone got, you know, including myself,
Speaker 1: distracted by the badge. Listen to what Senator Warnock actually says. Though,
Speaker 1: it's not just that you you were a police officer,
Speaker 1: there's war. Let me go back to the actual moment
Speaker 1: in that debate. One thing I have not done. I've
Speaker 1: never pretended to be a police officer about that, and
Speaker 1: I've never I've never threatened a shootout with the police.
Speaker 1: What how could nobody followed up on that, Genie that
Speaker 1: was an a p story from last February that in
Speaker 1: his past he in fact threatened a shootout with police.
Speaker 1: That doesn't seem to sort of coalesced with the rest
Speaker 1: of the message here. Yeah, and you know, I think
Speaker 1: the reason is just what you said prior, which is
Speaker 1: people were distracted by the badge. And you know, I
Speaker 1: was not surprised at all that he pulled that out
Speaker 1: because he does not have a message. And as Raphael
Speaker 1: Warnock was talking about today more effectively than quite frankly
Speaker 1: Friday night, because I watched the debate, um he is
Speaker 1: not a serious candidate for the US Senate. And when
Speaker 1: you're not a serious candidate, you must distract by visuals,
Speaker 1: And he did that fairly effectively for somebody in their debate,
Speaker 1: because what is what do people think about? Then they're
Speaker 1: thinking about an issue that helps Republicans crime. What aren't
Speaker 1: they talking about you know, his issues with his children,
Speaker 1: his paying for abortions, other issues involving abortion, his stance
Speaker 1: on issues like insulin and prescription drugs and all of
Speaker 1: those serious topics. So it did work effectively. Unfortunately, it
Speaker 1: took over the debate. And you know, Raphael Warnut did
Speaker 1: not perform at the debate to the level he probably
Speaker 1: wishes he did. He did better on Sunday night. But
Speaker 1: of course Walker wasn't there at the second debate, and
Speaker 1: there was an empty chair last night. But I'll tell
Speaker 1: you what. The The abortion issue did come up, of course,
Speaker 1: and and let's let's just let this air out for
Speaker 1: one second. Herschel Walker on abortion at the debate. I
Speaker 1: believe in life, and I tell people this, Georgia is
Speaker 1: a state that respects life, and I'll be a center
Speaker 1: that protects life. And I said that was a lie,
Speaker 1: and I'm not bagging down, referring of course, to this, uh,
Speaker 1: this whole scandal in which he uh, he has been
Speaker 1: denying that he encouraged and a former girlfriend and paid
Speaker 1: for an abortion woman who apparently fathered or did actually
Speaker 1: give birth to another child of his. But this came
Speaker 1: up in this same NBC interview, Rick, I hate God,
Speaker 1: do I have to do all this background every time?
Speaker 1: It's brutal. NBC. She's got a picture of the check
Speaker 1: and they talked this out. I have no idea what
Speaker 1: the can before is that your it could be but
Speaker 1: doesn't matter whether it's my singtu or not gone out.
Speaker 1: We don't want any names. Yes that's my check. You
Speaker 1: didn't have a job, dude, you have a job. Any
Speaker 1: questions whether she had a job at the time, So
Speaker 1: we just the check has been acknowledged here Rick, whether
Speaker 1: the motivation was there, idnore the timing or what he
Speaker 1: knew the check was going for. But does this not
Speaker 1: matter any longer. That's that would have been a huge
Speaker 1: development a week ago. Yeah, I think it would have
Speaker 1: been a huge development. It was a huge development a
Speaker 1: week ago, you know, just off the information we had
Speaker 1: in the denials that he gave and I was following
Speaker 1: Genie on our analysis that you know, he's going to
Speaker 1: use this prop and distract everybody until he then does
Speaker 1: an interview and starts talking about abortion again. Like I mean,
Speaker 1: like if he just shut up and go back to
Speaker 1: Johnson County, let the sheriff lock him up for the
Speaker 1: next three weeks he'll be a senator. I mean, like
Speaker 1: it's it's unbelievable. You know that he has this desire
Speaker 1: to try to nationalize the race beyond what it's already being.
Speaker 1: I mean, why do you give a national interview for
Speaker 1: a time when you're trying to run for senator and
Speaker 1: try to localize the election. Look, I mean, he is
Speaker 1: not a normal candidate for the United States Senate, and
Speaker 1: he doesn't have the experience. He's doing this by route.
Speaker 1: Uh and Uh. I'm sure his advisors are making it
Speaker 1: up as they go along, because they've got a unique
Speaker 1: candidate who is really hard to manage. And and I
Speaker 1: don't think this is the last we're gonna hear about him.
Speaker 1: He'll probably change his tune on this issue a number
Speaker 1: of times before now on election day. Uh And and
Speaker 1: we're so polarized right now, especially in a state like
Speaker 1: Georgia where we've seen so many elections of such a
Speaker 1: short period of time that um, I honestly don't know
Speaker 1: if there's anything either of these candidates can do to
Speaker 1: really move a significant portion of the electric real clear
Speaker 1: average still has warnock up by well, it's three point three.
Speaker 1: We'll call it three. Just for safety's sake here, Jeannie,
Speaker 1: can I ask to either of you guys have a
Speaker 1: gut check on this race? Is this seat going to flip? Jennie, Well,
Speaker 1: you know it. To Rick's point, I was so curious
Speaker 1: as to why they're putting Walker out with these national interviews.
Speaker 1: He had a better than expected debate. You think he
Speaker 1: would go quietly into the good night and try to
Speaker 1: ride the polls and not talk too much, and yet
Speaker 1: they had him out in multiple national interviews, which some
Speaker 1: people are reading as a sign that the internal polling
Speaker 1: does not look good for him. You know, obviously he's
Speaker 1: he's you know, behind, but just within a margin if
Speaker 1: you look at real clear. So, you know, I think
Speaker 1: the likelihood is Warnock is maybe able to hold this out,
Speaker 1: but I do think we're going to see it going
Speaker 1: to a runoff. Barack Obama is going to Georgia the
Speaker 1: end of October to try to, you know, act as
Speaker 1: the closer here for the senator. Rick, what's your thought?
Speaker 1: You know, look, that's a high stake scamble for the
Speaker 1: Warnock campaign. I mean, they're entering a new dynamic into
Speaker 1: the election that could mobilize Republican voters in a way
Speaker 1: that they aren't currently UM. And the fact that Donald
Speaker 1: Trump is staying out of the state for a while,
Speaker 1: you know, is giving you know, voters a chance to
Speaker 1: sort of side with a Republican Canada if they're upset
Speaker 1: with um, you know, the current president or the state
Speaker 1: of the economy. So he's putting himself into a bit
Speaker 1: of a vacuum. I think it's a bit of a risk.
Speaker 1: The fact that Warnock is pulling a little ahead. Reality
Speaker 1: is this is a dead heat. Nobody can sit on
Speaker 1: this race. Uh. And the reality too is that um,
Speaker 1: you know, if if if Georgia votes the way the
Speaker 1: national trends look, it's gonna vote strong at the end
Speaker 1: of this election cycle, uh, for the Republican. And and
Speaker 1: when you see Governor Kemp running so far ahead, he'll
Speaker 1: drive the ballot, not the Senate race. And so if
Speaker 1: a Republican votes for the governor and he's winning by
Speaker 1: over fifty, is he really gonna then cross over and
Speaker 1: vote for Warnuck. I don't think so. I think it's
Speaker 1: going to well. I think they all usually just go
Speaker 1: right down the line, right, I mean, and bullet voters
Speaker 1: are not well known in Jordan's end. You're banking on
Speaker 1: this thing, certainly. Walker is Rick Davis, g D. Schanzano.
Speaker 1: Great talk as always. Tomorrow is the three week mark
Speaker 1: and we are lucky to have the best panel in
Speaker 1: the business to round the bend on this cycle. We've
Speaker 1: got a lot to learn still between now an election
Speaker 1: night in November. We've got big plans for you that
Speaker 1: night too. I'll meet you back here tomorrow. The fastest
Speaker 1: hour in politics, This is Bloomberg.