1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast Are you gonna place a bet? 2 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:11,559 Speaker 2: Or what? What's going on? Everybody? 3 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: I am a spenting statistician Dane Martinez And this is 4 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: another edition of the Action Networks podcast series The Experts Guide. 5 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 2: This time we are betting. 6 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:25,919 Speaker 1: Soccer or football or international football, whatever you want to 7 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: call it. I've got the best guys here to discuss 8 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: how to win some money. My guy's BJ Cunningham and 9 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: of course Anthony de Bundo. 10 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 3: How you guys doing doing great? It's and we have 11 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:39,279 Speaker 3: a new soccer season on the horizon, and I'm really 12 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 3: excited to sit here and talk about soccer. 13 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: Absolutely absolutely, So here's the first thing. What is it 14 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: exactly that makes you an expert in betting soccer? Like, 15 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: what are kind of some of the bumps you've taken, 16 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 1: some of the things you've understood? 17 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 2: How what's your background in betting football? 18 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, so I started betting soccer and really every sport 19 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 3: in about twenty eleven when I was a freshman in college. 20 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 3: You know, I wasn't honestly a big soccer fan at 21 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 3: that time, but I played a ton of FIFA on 22 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 3: my Xbox. I've lived across from two guys who were 23 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 3: on the soccer team at my college, so I kind 24 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 3: of started watching the Premier League, started watching Champions League, 25 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 3: and I just really kind of fell in love with it. 26 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 3: And then from there, you know, nottched my natural progression 27 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 3: translated to betting it. And then, you know, over the years, 28 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 3: I've learned more and more about the advanced analytics of soccer, 29 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 3: which have now grown into this big thing and really 30 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 3: have shown that it using these things can be profitable 31 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 3: to help betting soccer. So I guess, you know, I 32 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 3: have a little over a decade of experience betting soccer. 33 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 3: I've been through, you know, a lot of different things 34 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 3: when betting the sport, and truly it is a lot 35 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:45,960 Speaker 3: of fun and torturous at the same time. 36 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: Anthony, what about you, Like, how did you get into 37 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: betting soccer, which is obviously not necessarily one of the 38 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 1: big main four sports here in the States, but still 39 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: has money to be made. 40 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I have been a soccer fan since 41 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 4: about twenty twelve thirteen as well, when I was a 42 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:06,279 Speaker 4: wee young lad, and I watched it throughout high school 43 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 4: and started betting it then and now I'm you know, 44 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 4: went through college and what was cool about it was that, 45 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 4: you know, you get to college and you're like, Okay, 46 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 4: there's a ton of people in this kind of age group, 47 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 4: this twenties thirties age group that really loves European soccer, 48 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 4: and they're getting more and more into it, and that's 49 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,919 Speaker 4: why it's growing so much. And so I've been betting 50 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:29,119 Speaker 4: other sports before that. I started betting NFL college basketball. 51 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 4: Those my first true loves in betting. But I kind 52 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,080 Speaker 4: of broke into soccer and started betting it every Saturday, 53 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 4: and it's good. It's the beauty of it for the 54 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,799 Speaker 4: American viewer is that if you're a huge football fan 55 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 4: and you want to bet football, American football on Saturday 56 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 4: and Sunday afternoons, well you don't have to wait until 57 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 4: twelve one o'clock to start watching sports betting on them. 58 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 5: You get the morning action. 59 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 4: I'm up at seven every weekend watching games, sometimes earlier, 60 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 4: getting ready to you know, go through the games, and 61 00:02:57,080 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 4: so it's. 62 00:02:57,440 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 5: A lot of fun. 63 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:00,639 Speaker 4: And I've been betting it regularly for about five years now, 64 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 4: and you know, as I've become a bigger and bigger fan, 65 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 4: I've broken more into the other leagues beyond the premier 66 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 4: league in Europe, like the Bundesliga Siria that we talk 67 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 4: about in our podcast. 68 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 1: Strawberries and Cream in the Mornings with Anthony Dbunda. All Right, 69 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: so you guys are talking about, you know, kind of 70 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: your history with it, how you've been interested in international 71 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: soccer for a decade plus. But can someone who's more inexperienced, 72 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 1: relatively new and green, actually become good at betting doing things, 73 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 1: you know, besides just betting the draw every single time? 74 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 2: Djah, Absolutely. 75 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 3: I think like any sport, it takes time and you 76 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 3: need to actually sit down and learn about the sport itself. 77 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 3: So you need to learn about some of the advanced 78 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 3: analytics that guys like us or many other betters out 79 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 3: there use, like expected goals. To learn truly about these teams, 80 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 3: you need to get to know them. You need to 81 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 3: get to know their rosters. You need to I mean, 82 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 3: it's very similar to betting NFL. You know, you wouldn't 83 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 3: just come into betting NFL and you say, all right, 84 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the favorite. No, you want to get 85 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 3: to know the teams. You want to know how they are, 86 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 3: their statistics behind it. It's the same thing in soccer. 87 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 3: So getting to know the teams, getting to know the 88 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 3: format of soccer. It's a low scoring, you know, type 89 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 3: event type of sport, so a lot of people can 90 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 3: see that as boring. So it's a lot of a 91 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 3: different style of betting rather than like basketball and football 92 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 3: when you're betting spreads. But yes, you can become a 93 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 3: good soccer better you just take the time to learn 94 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,920 Speaker 3: the sport and learn the analytics behind it. 95 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: Hey, Anthony, you know one of the things BJ said 96 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:25,039 Speaker 1: is you got to know the teams, got to know 97 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:26,599 Speaker 1: the players, And I got to tell you the truth 98 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: as someone who's trying to keep up with international soccer. 99 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: I mean I got players being sold on loan, playing 100 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: for their club, playing for their country. 101 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 2: It's a lot to keep up with. Like how do 102 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 2: you actually. 103 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 1: Learn the teams, learn the styles when there's so much 104 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: movement going around and people playing in tournaments that aren't 105 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 1: really even part of the season as well. 106 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's the hardest thing that I come 107 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 4: across when I teach or talk up to, you know, 108 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 4: the new soccer fan, They're like, Okay, I get that 109 00:04:57,640 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 4: there's like the Premier League, but like what is the 110 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 4: Champions League? And how do you get into that and 111 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 4: like do they do it at the same time? And 112 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 4: then you know the f A Cup, Like what is that? 113 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 4: And so I, you know, trying to explain. You know, Okay, 114 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 4: the Premier League is just English teams and then the 115 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 4: best English teams play the best German, Italian, Spanish teams 116 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:15,839 Speaker 4: and then but they also in the middle of the 117 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 4: season will have like a knockout tournament, like a March 118 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 4: Madness style field where they'll just play other teams. So 119 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 4: that that is a in the form of the Europa Yeah, 120 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 4: they do exactly, and. 121 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,280 Speaker 3: So in the CBI and the Europa Conference League, yes. 122 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 5: They've got it all. And that's really the beauty of it. 123 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 4: There are always games on and that's what I you know, 124 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 4: always say too. You know, it's a Monday or Tuesday, 125 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 4: Wednesday afternoon, there's almost always soccer on during the season, 126 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 4: and so you know, just immerse yourself in it. Find 127 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:45,119 Speaker 4: people on Twitter who you no follow, the sport Twitter 128 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 4: accounts that are active and can update you on transfer 129 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 4: somebody like our good friend for Breezio Romano. You know, 130 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 4: follow the injury reports that are coming out every day. 131 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 4: Follow you know, who's getting sold, whre and and watch 132 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 4: and listen, you know, and you can learn a lot 133 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:01,719 Speaker 4: pretty quickly, I think. But it is a lot to 134 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 4: keep up with across the main five leagues in Europe 135 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 4: just alone. 136 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,320 Speaker 5: That's that's quite a bit of teams. 137 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:09,679 Speaker 4: So you're looking at, you know, almost one hundred teams 138 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 4: fair enough. 139 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: When you're looking for sources, definitely be sure to check 140 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 1: out the Action Networks podcast Wonder Goal with these guys 141 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 1: and Leeboff twice a week to get some of that 142 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 1: information to be kind of as up on it as possible. So, BJA, 143 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 1: let me ask you, when you're kind of getting ready 144 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 1: to start a season, whether it's Boom, this Legua, la Liga, 145 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:30,720 Speaker 1: a certain tournament that you may want to bet on, 146 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: what are some of the foundational kind of pillars and 147 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 1: cornerstones when you're trying to bet soccer. 148 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, so the biggest thing when you're coming up on 149 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 3: a new season is the transfer activity, because you know, 150 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 3: we hear about the big name signings for you know, 151 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:46,279 Speaker 3: club like Earlin Holland going to Manchester City, but we 152 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:49,039 Speaker 3: don't necessarily hear the big names that are the big 153 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 3: signings that's mine for smaller clubs that actually have just 154 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 3: as big as a difference on how they're going to 155 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 3: perform this next season as Manchester City's going to perform. 156 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:00,799 Speaker 3: So for me, going into a season, I always have Okay, 157 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 3: what did they do last year? What are there you know, 158 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:05,720 Speaker 3: expect a goal differential? And then I'm going through each team, Okay, 159 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 3: who came in, who went out? Does that help them? 160 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 3: Does that hurt them? And then you also have to 161 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 3: take into account managerial changes because those happen throughout the 162 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:15,120 Speaker 3: middle of the years. So I have to look at 163 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 3: a team's prior year data and I have to say, Okay, 164 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 3: is this indicative of how this team is actually going 165 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 3: to be going forward or do I need to adjust 166 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 3: it for only the time that this manager was in charge. 167 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 3: So it's for me, it's a never ending process of 168 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 3: trying to prepare, trying to adjust teams, trying to see Okay, 169 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 3: like for example, this new season, we have nought eam 170 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 3: forced coming in and they you know, projected if they 171 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 3: didn't make any signings, they'd be the worst team in 172 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 3: the Premier League, but they signed ten guys. You know, 173 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 3: they splash cash and everything like that. So now I 174 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 3: have to take that into account and say, okay, well 175 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 3: they're going to be better then you know, I would 176 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 3: expect them to be without those signings. So for me, 177 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 3: it's a never ending process of looking at the prior 178 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 3: your data, trying to make adjustments, and then the transfer 179 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 3: activity of who's in, who's out. Does that hurt or 180 00:07:57,440 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 3: does that help that team? 181 00:07:58,960 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 2: Anthony, what about you? 182 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: Some of the same things you're looking at when we 183 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 1: start a season or even getting into a tournament, that 184 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 1: maybe something you want to better. 185 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think you know, there's no better example. 186 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 4: You know, BJ mentioned the offseason summer transfers. It's it 187 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:16,119 Speaker 4: is part part science. You know, we don't have data 188 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 4: on these teams. We don't know the individual impact of 189 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 4: one player, and we don't know. Okay, Forrest just signed 190 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:25,119 Speaker 4: this new striker from the Bundesliga. He had good numbers there. 191 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 4: Do we think it translates to the premier league? It 192 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 4: may not, like you just don't know. 193 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 5: And I think that's the biggest thing. 194 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 4: Whereas you know, in the NFL, for example, you can 195 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 4: look at a player like AJ Brown and say he 196 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 4: did this for the Titans, we expected the same league. 197 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 4: He'll probably do something similar for the Eagles and you 198 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 4: can kind of project that, but the leagues are so 199 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,199 Speaker 4: different in quality that it's it is a little bit difficult, 200 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 4: and the managers change tactics styles. You know, a team 201 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 4: last year in Germany was one of the best defensive 202 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 4: teams in Europe. Two years ago they got a new manager, 203 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 4: they were playing a different style. 204 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:57,959 Speaker 5: It didn't work. 205 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 4: They were giving up goals left and right, and you know, 206 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 4: it took a while for us to be like, okay, 207 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 4: we need to readjust our priors on this team. So 208 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 4: there is an art and there is a science to it. 209 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 4: There's no exact way to say summer transfers are going 210 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 4: to do this or that. And international tournaments are even harder, 211 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 4: I think, because you have so little data on these teams. 212 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 4: They play, you know, a dozen games a year. There's 213 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 4: different lineups and different competitive levels to it. 214 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 5: So it is hard. 215 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 4: But I think, you know, you can generally use the 216 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 4: science as a guide and then you know, put some 217 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:29,839 Speaker 4: artful tweaks on it in a way. 218 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Action networks experts guide to betting. Here we're 219 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,719 Speaker 1: talking to internationals soccer and like I always say, we're 220 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: not just giving you a fish. We are teaching you 221 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 1: how to fish here, my guys, BJ Cunningham and Anthony Debundo. Okay, Like, 222 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,320 Speaker 1: this is something I honestly want to understand because there 223 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:50,439 Speaker 1: are so many elements of betting soccer that are unique 224 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 1: to soccer. I'd love to get your thoughts on some 225 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 1: of them. Like, for example, in most sports that we bet, 226 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,719 Speaker 1: there's only two outcomes, right, one team can win or 227 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 1: another team can win. But in soccer there is that 228 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 1: third outcome of the draw and three way action makes 229 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,960 Speaker 1: it crazy. I see on my bet slip sometimes where 230 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 1: both teams can be plus money, so I have to 231 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 1: understand that. And to me, also, the schedule is so 232 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 1: important in soccer. We've talked about a little bit before. 233 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 1: A team may be playing in their league and in 234 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 1: another tournament, and then even in tournaments, you have the 235 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,079 Speaker 1: home and home the two leg aggregate, and I think 236 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 1: there's some amazing opportunities going into that second leg already 237 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 1: knowing a little bit about maybe the style some teams 238 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 1: may play if it's already three to one. So, BJ, 239 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:41,719 Speaker 1: what are some of these kind of things that are 240 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 1: unique to soccer? And please shed some light on the 241 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:47,439 Speaker 1: draw and the two leg aggregate. 242 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, so the draw obviously makes things really interesting with 243 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 3: international soccer. You know, you can obviously have there's many 244 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 3: different ways you can bet it. You know, you can 245 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:57,840 Speaker 3: bet teams, you know, to draw, no bad, you can 246 00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,719 Speaker 3: bet them to either win and if they draw then 247 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 3: you basically get a pushy. You know, you can bet 248 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 3: their spread. There's so many different ways you can bet 249 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 3: on soccer. And what's unique, like you mentioned, is teams 250 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 3: are playing so many matches throughout a season. You know, 251 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:13,719 Speaker 3: you have a team, they might be playing a you know, 252 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 3: a Premier League match on a Sunday, then a Champions 253 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 3: League match on a Wednesday, and then another Premier League 254 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 3: match on a Saturday, So it makes it even harder 255 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 3: to try and predict lineups of Okay, if, for example, 256 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 3: Manchester City has a big match on Sunday, a huge 257 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 3: Champions League match on Wednesday, and then they're playing Bourne 258 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 3: Myth on Saturday, are they gonna rest guys? Are they 259 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 3: gonna play the backups? Try to give them some rest 260 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 3: because the next week they got the exact same schedule, 261 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 3: They got three matches. So it makes a very unique 262 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,560 Speaker 3: and difficult to try to predict who they're gonna play, 263 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 3: who they're not but it also gives you an advantage for 264 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 3: some of the smaller clubs, you know, if if they 265 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 3: are playing some of the backups from some of these 266 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 3: bigger clubs. So it's very challenging. It's an exhausting process 267 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 3: of trying to keep up with everything, trying to figure 268 00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 3: out injuries, trying to figure out all right, who's in 269 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 3: who's out. But you know what, it's all fun. 270 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 2: Absolutely, Anthony. What about you? I mean the draw. I 271 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 2: always joke with people just bet the draw all the time. 272 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 1: Is that something that could actually be a strategy in 273 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 1: certain elements? What about some of these things? And then 274 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 1: also you know you've got times where it's ten against 275 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 1: eleven and in the NHL, I know that moves the 276 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 1: live line real quick when a team goes on to 277 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 1: power play. What about having to play for sixty eight 278 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 1: more minutes down to man Talk to me, Anthony. 279 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:30,439 Speaker 4: Yeah, my friends and I call it the red of 280 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:33,560 Speaker 4: death anytime. And you just don't want red cards in 281 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 4: your games, and of course unless the team you bet 282 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 4: on playing up a man, but totals get thrown out 283 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 4: of whack. You know, games can be swung on red 284 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 4: cards and a lot of times you know it's a 285 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 4: fluke play that didn't really impact the game. You know, 286 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 4: a guy made a dumb tackle in the middle of 287 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:52,960 Speaker 4: the pitch right, so you're like, that didn't really impact 288 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 4: the game. But yeah, I mean it's a dangerous tackle. 289 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 5: You got to go. So you know, the red cards 290 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 5: are an interesting challenge. The draws are also interesting. 291 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 4: If you listen to our podcast, Bach and I don't 292 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 4: bet draws particularly often, but our colleague Michael loves a 293 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 4: good draw, especially when you get a low total. So 294 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 4: you'll get games lined at two two and a quarter 295 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 4: and you'll see the draw is still you know, over 296 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 4: plus two hundred. And we've found in our bet Labs 297 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 4: data that in the Premier League, when you have a 298 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 4: low total that you tend to increase your chance of 299 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 4: getting a draw. Of course that's somewhat priced in, but 300 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 4: it tends to not be priced in quite enough. 301 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:28,679 Speaker 5: So there is some value in betting draws. 302 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 4: Generally, when the total is low you have two low 303 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,560 Speaker 4: event teams who play maybe a more defensive style, not 304 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 4: necessarily when you have two even teams, you won't necessarily 305 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 4: get more likely to get a draw there. And also 306 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 4: you know when you have you know a really big 307 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 4: time team, say like Manchester City is playing a Crystal Palace. 308 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:49,560 Speaker 4: Palace may not be playing for the win necessarily, They'll 309 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 4: be playing out for the point, and so your your 310 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,120 Speaker 4: goals of the teams are not necessarily aligned. At the end, 311 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 4: you have a palace team who's not trying to win, 312 00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 4: They're trying to draw, and those are kind of situations 313 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 4: where you can and you know, maybe you know, if 314 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 4: you can get lucky enough for the first hour, in 315 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 4: the last thirty minutes, you can cash a you know, 316 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 4: plus four hundred on a draw or something. And then 317 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 4: the other unique thing about soccer is is Asian lines, 318 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 4: Asian handicap lines. The teams will be laying a goal 319 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 4: in a quarter and then two point seventy five will 320 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 4: be the total, and people are like, what is that? 321 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 4: And so what it is? If you bet over two 322 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 4: point seventy five goals, Let's say you put fifty dollars 323 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 4: on it. Over two point seventy five goals, you get 324 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 4: twenty five dollars on over two and a half, twenty 325 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 4: five dollars on over three. It splits your bet on 326 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 4: each side of it, so that if the game ends 327 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 4: on three goals, you don't win the whole bet, you 328 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 4: only win half the bet, and the same work to 329 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 4: the opposite direction for unders and for spreads. And that's 330 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 4: another thing that I think people don't understand too much 331 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 4: when it comes to being new to betting soccer, is 332 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 4: those Asian lines and handicaps. 333 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 1: Hey, BJ, what would you describe as kind of like 334 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 1: the ideal betting opportunity if we are betting foot the ball, 335 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: like you see, maybe a team that has something to 336 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: play for, even maybe to avoid getting relegated or something 337 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 1: like that later in the season. I mean Anthony mentioned 338 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 1: kind of when the team's objectives may miss align with 339 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,120 Speaker 1: what you know, your knee jerk reaction would be to 340 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 1: betting the game. So where are some ideal opportunities for 341 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 1: the novice soccer. 342 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 3: Better Yeah, so for me, it's an underperforming team going 343 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 3: against a drastic overperformed team. What I mean by that 344 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 3: is one of the biggest metrics and widely available metrics 345 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:26,840 Speaker 3: in soccer now that I know me and Anthony both 346 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 3: used to model these games is expected goals. And basically 347 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 3: what that is is they use historical data that from 348 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 3: wherever the shot is taken on the field, whether it 349 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 3: be a header, from the foot, from your knee, whatever 350 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 3: it is. Using all that historical data, it says, all right, 351 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 3: regardless of what happens on that shot, it has this 352 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 3: percentage chance of going in, and we aggregate that over 353 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 3: a match and over a season and everything. So we 354 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 3: can figure out teams that are creating a ton of 355 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 3: great chances but just aren't scoring, or teams that you know, 356 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 3: for example, are this last past season Wolves, You know 357 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 3: they were on pay a pretty good defensive team, but 358 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 3: if you look at their expected goals, they outperformed it 359 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 3: by about twenty goals, like they just got incredibly lucky. 360 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 3: So we can figure out those teams that are due 361 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 3: for positive aggression or are doe for negative aggression, and 362 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 3: we get a team that's massively due for negative aggression 363 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 3: versus a team that has a ton of positive aggression, 364 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 3: and you come together, Well, that's my ideal scenario of 365 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 3: wanting to place that bet, and that's usually when I 366 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 3: go big. You know, we get a couple opportunities that 367 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 3: throughout the Premier League and the other five leagues in Europe. 368 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 3: But for me, that is my ideal betting scenario. 369 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 1: Anthony, what are you hunting for you know, I talked 370 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 1: a lot of times where the team's goals may be 371 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 1: misaligned late in a season with promotion and relegation up 372 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 1: for grabs. What are some of the you know, situations 373 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: context trends that you're looking at. 374 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 5: Bja talked about expected goals. 375 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 4: I won't go too deep into that again, but what 376 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 4: I'll say about expected goals that are in the long term, 377 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 4: and they are in overall bigger stretch of matches, they 378 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 4: are more predictive than goals themselves because finishing the act 379 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 4: of actually kicking the ball into the net tends to 380 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:03,440 Speaker 4: vary quite a bit over the course of a season, 381 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,640 Speaker 4: but the act of creating chances getting into those positions 382 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 4: is much more stable, much more predictive. And that's why 383 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:13,360 Speaker 4: we like expected goals. It's not perfect, it has flaws, 384 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 4: but for what we have right now, it's much better 385 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:18,679 Speaker 4: than anything else. There's other stuff, you know, in the 386 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,399 Speaker 4: build up to creating chances that teams do that we 387 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 4: look at as well. But in terms of betting opportunities, 388 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 4: there's a couple I wanted to touch on. 389 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 5: One of them happens at the end of every season, like. 390 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 4: Clockwork, you'll get team a needs to win playing they 391 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 4: need to win this match to get into the Champions League, 392 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 4: and the line they're playing a team that has nothing 393 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:42,959 Speaker 4: on the line. 394 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,159 Speaker 5: You know, there are seasons over they're safely in the 395 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 5: mid table. 396 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 4: And the team that needs to win will get juiced 397 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 4: up incredibly high, overpriced. The reality is, yes, there are 398 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 4: teams who will play somewhat worse toward the end of 399 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 4: the season when they have nothing on the line, and 400 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,679 Speaker 4: there are teams who when they're in the relegation battle 401 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 4: will play marginally better generally speaking. But we're still talking 402 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:06,639 Speaker 4: about bad teams here. We're still talking about relative to 403 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 4: the price being very overvalued. And so that creates a 404 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 4: ton of really good betting opportunities in the month of May, 405 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 4: where you get a team who should not be as 406 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 4: big of a favorite as they are laying huge spreads, 407 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 4: huge goals, overinflated totals. All that is a really big 408 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,719 Speaker 4: one and I think that's one of the best opportunities. 409 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 4: And the other one is overreaction to lineups, Like, yes, 410 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 4: there are players who move needles. You know, if most 411 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 4: Sola is not playing for Liverpool, that is a big loss. 412 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 4: But you'll see a ton of late steam on games 413 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 4: off of a couple of average to above average players 414 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 4: being out, and I generally think there's a lot more 415 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 4: that goes into a soccer team than one or two 416 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 4: midfielders being out, and I think you can kind of 417 00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 4: overreact to that, And that's really one of the other 418 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,679 Speaker 4: unique challenges is trying to say, Okay, what is. 419 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 5: This midfielder worth. 420 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 4: We generally know strikers because we can look at their 421 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:59,120 Speaker 4: expected goals, their goals totals, but defenders, midfielders, wingers, it's 422 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:00,760 Speaker 4: harder to quantify what they're really worth. 423 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:02,439 Speaker 5: And I think sometimes you'll see the market. 424 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 4: You know, you'll be looking at a game and a 425 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 4: team will get steamed from minus one twenty to minus 426 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 4: one seventy in the hour before the game. 427 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:09,920 Speaker 5: I generally would say. 428 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 4: Much more often than not, you're better off fading that 429 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 4: line move if it, you know, depending on where your 430 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 4: price point is, you're better off going against that than 431 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 4: trying to follow the steam on a certain team in 432 00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 4: that situation. 433 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 2: Or then again, those could be times to bet the 434 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 2: draw I'm talking about. 435 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 1: I'm gonna get you guys betting drugs one way or another, 436 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 1: but let me get you out of here guys on this. 437 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,879 Speaker 1: You know, two of the things that have really grown 438 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:39,199 Speaker 1: recently in the sports investing world they're betting props and 439 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 1: of course betting live. What does that look like when 440 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 1: we're talking about international soccer? Is it anytime goal scorers? 441 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:51,400 Speaker 1: Is it totals on things like saves or corners or cards, 442 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 1: time of first goal? What are some of those prop 443 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 1: markets that you like when betting soccer? And then DJ, 444 00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: how do you bet soccer live? Because when I'm watching 445 00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 1: game as a novice, it seems like the commentators always 446 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 1: know like who's dominating the flow of action or a 447 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:10,359 Speaker 1: team that's quote unquote knocking on the door and is 448 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 1: going to score a goal in the next ten minutes. 449 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: Do you factor those things in when betting live and 450 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 1: betting soccer props? 451 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 3: Yeah? So first with props, I know the most popular 452 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 3: and the problem that you know, me and Anthony both like, 453 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 3: is both teams to score? Yes or no? I think 454 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 3: is one of the easiest props for a novice better 455 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 3: to get in on very simple are both teams going 456 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:28,840 Speaker 3: to score or not? You know, I think that's one 457 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 3: of the easiest ones people to grasp. You know, you 458 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 3: obviously have any time goal scorers and everything like that. 459 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 3: I generally think those are our minus EV type bets. 460 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 3: Usually those overinflated for you know, the number one striker 461 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 3: on the team for like a Korean Benzma for Real Madrid, 462 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 3: he's usually markets to do. Yeah, that's something to. 463 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:47,360 Speaker 2: Follow up on that. 464 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 1: Someone who I do respect their opinion said, if you 465 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,359 Speaker 1: know the person who is going to take kind of 466 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: a penalty kick for that team, you're also getting baked 467 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 1: in kind of you know, any foul that's that happens 468 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: in the box, it doesn't even have to be against him. 469 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: You know, he could still wind up being the guy 470 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 1: who steps up to the point and getting a goal 471 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:07,880 Speaker 1: that way. 472 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,679 Speaker 2: Does that factor in? How do you quantify something like 473 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 2: that when you're looking at and say a proper in 474 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 2: anytime goalscorer. 475 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean you could definitely factor in that he's 476 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 3: going to be the penalty taker for the match. But 477 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 3: I know, Anthony, you know, can agree with this, but 478 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 3: penalties are generally random. You know, they're not really predictive. 479 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 3: You know, you can depend on the referee might be 480 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 3: more in tone of giving or you know, might actually 481 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 3: have a better chance of giving a penalty versus not. 482 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,639 Speaker 3: But we really it's there's nothing predictive about whether a 483 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 3: team's going to give away or penalty or not. You know, obviously, 484 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 3: if you're in the other team's box for seventy five 485 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:36,440 Speaker 3: minutes of the match, yeah you have a better chance 486 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 3: of you know, them fouling you and you taking a penalty. 487 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 3: But in general, I really don't factor that into an 488 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 3: anytime goalscorer. And you know, from a live standpoint, I 489 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:47,920 Speaker 3: mean there's a bunch of different ways you can play 490 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 3: it live. And you know I already mentioned expected goals. 491 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 3: You know, for resources like like info goal dot net, 492 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:56,239 Speaker 3: who has live expectable tracking throughout a match. Now you 493 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,679 Speaker 3: can see how well a team is at creating chances 494 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 3: versus is how many chances they're giving up. So you 495 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,199 Speaker 3: can have a situation where a team has you know, 496 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 3: one point seven expected goals to a team who has 497 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 3: point one, and that team that has point one, Mike 498 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 3: just take a shot from outside the box, might deflect 499 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 3: off a defender and go in. And that situation where 500 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:15,119 Speaker 3: you can grab the other team live and you can say, 501 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 3: all right, well, this team is completely dominating the match, 502 00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 3: so I'm going to go and to buy this other 503 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:21,760 Speaker 3: team live because they're going to continue to create chances 504 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 3: at the other end. Also, knowing the styles of play 505 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 3: with certain teams is very important. You know, if you 506 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,159 Speaker 3: have a team like for example, Athletico Madrid who plays 507 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 3: very conservative, very defensive, is basically only playing for a 508 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,200 Speaker 3: one zero win, well, if they go up one nothing, 509 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 3: generally you don't want to bet on them to run 510 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 3: the score up because they're probably just going to park 511 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 3: the bus and try to see it out one nothing. 512 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 3: So knowing the styles the team is very important, and 513 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 3: also knowing how teams are creating chances throughout a match. 514 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:48,359 Speaker 3: If they are completely dominating a match and the other 515 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 3: team scores, then that's a good opportunity to get in 516 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 3: and buy it live. And also live unders are another 517 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 3: big thing that me and Anthony both like to do. 518 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 3: You know, you might have a team that just scores 519 00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 3: on their first two shots outside the box, very low 520 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 3: percentage chances, but forerever reason they go in and you 521 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 3: can get out of total that's you know, three four 522 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 3: goals sometimes and get tremendous value on a game that 523 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 3: we already projected that's going to go most likely going 524 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,960 Speaker 3: to go under So those are some some live opportunities, 525 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 3: but generally it's just trying to go against what's happening 526 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 3: in the match. 527 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:17,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, what about you, Anthony. 528 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,680 Speaker 1: You know, I hear these terms park the bus, right, 529 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 1: I hear these terms when a team gets a goal 530 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 1: quote unquote against the run of play, and what kind 531 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: of opportunity that can be Anthony, Are those things you're 532 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 1: also looking for live? 533 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,920 Speaker 2: And are there any props you'd like to bet? Yeah? 534 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 5: I think so. 535 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,399 Speaker 4: I definitely agree with with that. With BVINGBJ said pretty much. 536 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 4: And what you'll see is that the market will sometimes 537 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:44,120 Speaker 4: overreact to a team. 538 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 5: Dominating a match as well. 539 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,280 Speaker 4: You know, if a team is holding a ton of 540 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 4: the possession and maybe looking like, oh they have so 541 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 4: much possession, they're getting a lot of low quality shots, 542 00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:55,440 Speaker 4: but they never look like they're going to break through. 543 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,800 Speaker 4: You'll see the live market will overreact to the actual 544 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 4: chances of them scoring a goal. 545 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 5: And maybe you could bet the other way. 546 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 4: It is a little dangerous because as time passes, of course, 547 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,360 Speaker 4: the odds of a team going and scoring the goal 548 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 4: and winning the game will decrease. Your odds of the 549 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 4: draw increase at that point. But yeah, I think that's 550 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,719 Speaker 4: one one angle. And like Bja said, you know if 551 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,360 Speaker 4: a team, especially true, when you have a team who 552 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 4: is due to regress, you'll have a team who's in 553 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:21,960 Speaker 4: their last ten games, they've had ten expected goals, they've 554 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 4: scored twenty goals off it, they're running really hot, and 555 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 4: they score early. Again, what we know in the long 556 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 4: term is that teams with their expected goal totals and 557 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,639 Speaker 4: their actual goal totals will tend to even out. And 558 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 4: so you just know that the regression is coming. Doesn't 559 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:36,680 Speaker 4: mean it's going to come in the next eighty minutes, 560 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:38,920 Speaker 4: doesn't mean it's going to come in the next two games. 561 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,120 Speaker 4: But in the long run, more often than not, there 562 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:44,439 Speaker 4: are teams who defy logic, but more often than not, 563 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:48,359 Speaker 4: teams will regress back towards their means. And you know, 564 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,240 Speaker 4: it can be dangerous early in the season because you 565 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 4: don't know what those means really are. But once you 566 00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 4: get a pretty good read on a team, especially certain 567 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 4: managers like Bjay said that will play differently with leads, 568 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,640 Speaker 4: you can kind of adjust on the fire there. 569 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:03,360 Speaker 2: All right, So there you have it. 570 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 1: Thank you guys for first of all making me a 571 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,600 Speaker 1: little bit sharper when it comes to betting soccer, football 572 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 1: and international soccer, because I was just betting the draw, 573 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:14,639 Speaker 1: so now I'm gonna bet a couple of more things. 574 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 1: Remember you can hear more from these guys on the 575 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 1: Wonder Goal podcast twice a week when it's going on 576 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 1: in season. Get that EPL, LA Liga Bundesliga Edge. I'm 577 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:30,120 Speaker 1: Dane Martinez for my guys, BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo. 578 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 2: This has been. 579 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,760 Speaker 1: Another edition of the Expert's Guide to Betting. Be sure 580 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,640 Speaker 1: to download the Action Network app. Be sure to subscribe 581 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:42,000 Speaker 1: to the Action Network YouTube channel, unless, of course, you 582 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:43,679 Speaker 1: are allergic to money. 583 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:44,680 Speaker 2: We'll see you next time. 584 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:44,880 Speaker 1: Got