WEBVTT - Understanding the Real Fight Over Water in Arizona 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:14.000 Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. 0:00:14.080 --> 0:00:16.840 I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloy. 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:18.040 Tracy Arizona Water. 0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:21.840 I'm like, I'm really fascinated by this topic, and I 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:24.160 also have a really hard time wrapping my head around it. 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:28.720 We sort of hear different things. So just to lay 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:34.800 the groundwork here or the groundwater. We have interviewed a 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:39.080 land broker in Arizona, and we have also interviewed an 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:42.760 alfalfa farmer. Yes, and water has come up every time, 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:47.320 and we sort of hear different things from those two stakeholders. 0:00:47.440 --> 0:00:50.159 So I remember the farmer was sort of blaming the 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:53.720 property developers for water shortages, and then the property developers 0:00:53.760 --> 0:00:57.280 are like, actually, agriculture uses the majority of water in 0:00:57.360 --> 0:01:00.600 the state, and at the same time, you have concerns 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:03.200 over water availability, and we saw some news on that 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:03.920 front recently. 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:06.880 Yeah, So at the beginning of the month, I believe 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:10.039 the governor of Arizona announced this plan to sort of 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:12.800 constrain the amount of new development that will be allowed 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:15.520 around the Phoenix area, which is of course one of 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:20.120 the fastest growing areas. And as you mentioned, like the 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:22.840 developers will say, oh, we have plenty of room to 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:25.240 add more homes because the farmers are taking up eighty 0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:26.960 percent of the water that we have in the desert. 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:29.800 And the farmers say, well, there wasn't really a problem 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:32.119 with water until everyone started moving to our state. 0:01:32.280 --> 0:01:35.959 I'm imagining that Spider Man meme of everyone pointing fingers 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:39.039 at each other. But I think the big difference and 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:42.520 what's happening now is that we are starting to see 0:01:42.920 --> 0:01:47.520 water shortages or constraints affect development decisions. 0:01:47.600 --> 0:01:49.760 Right, So then the big question is, like, Okay, so 0:01:49.920 --> 0:01:52.680 Arizona and some of these other Southwestern states that in 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:55.920 part get their water from the Colorado River all have 0:01:56.040 --> 0:01:59.080 to conserve water to somewhat to some extent, there's been 0:01:59.080 --> 0:02:01.840 this meggage round in the Southwest for I think like 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:06.840 twenty five years now. From the underground aquafers, they're depleting 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:10.280 at some pace. The water from the rivers is lower 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:12.880 than it used to be. So then and we hadn't 0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:15.119 even you know, we're talking about housing versus agriculture. There's 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:18.519 also a lot of industry, industry and the semiconductors. Yeah, 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:20.120 so we sort of have to get a sense I 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:22.960 think of the big picture of like frankly, who's going 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:25.040 to lose out? Who is going to who has water 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:26.680 today that won't have access. 0:02:26.320 --> 0:02:27.760 To it in the future, Right, And how do you 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:32.120 make those decisions? How do you decide what to prioritize. 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:35.480 Right, Because with all utilities, it's never like a pure market. 0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:37.680 There's not just like I don't at least I don't think, 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:39.280 you know, it's like when you like try to wrap 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:40.120 your head around like. 0:02:40.160 --> 0:02:41.520 How the Texas grid works. 0:02:41.560 --> 0:02:43.320 You know, it's not like there's like some price of 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:47.040 electricity and who pays the most. It's like there's auction mechanisms, 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:48.840 there's subsidies, et cetera. 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:50.280 All kinds of Texas gread is a bit of a 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:52.360 special case. But point taken, I think I. 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:55.400 Think Arizona Water might also be in that case of 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:59.320 many special cases. So we really do have the perfect 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:02.519 guest who is steeped in water and water policy and 0:03:02.560 --> 0:03:04.400 made a whole career of it. We're going to be 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:08.120 speaking to Katherine Sorenson. She's the director of Research at 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:11.360 the Kyle Center for Water at the Morrison Institute for 0:03:11.480 --> 0:03:15.440 Public Policy at Arizona State. Previously, she was the head 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:17.160 of Phoenix Water Services. 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:18.480 So someone who. 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:20.760 Really knows water and going to break it down. So, 0:03:20.960 --> 0:03:24.160 Catherine Sorenson, thank you so much for coming on odd 0:03:24.200 --> 0:03:25.919 Lots really appreciate you joining us. 0:03:26.800 --> 0:03:28.720 Thank you. I'm really excited for our conversation. 0:03:29.040 --> 0:03:32.640 Why didn't you start just in the very sort of 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:34.640 just go back a little bit a few weeks ago 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:38.880 and the Governor of Arizona did announce these constraints to 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:43.160 some extent on new construction capacity around Phoenix. 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:44.800 What what was announced and why? 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:49.640 Yeah, that's a great question, and there is a complicated 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:50.280 answer to that. 0:03:50.760 --> 0:03:53.400 And I told you it's not going to be an 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:53.920 easy one. 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:58.920 But it's not an easy one. So what that related 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:03.040 to is actual it was actually a sustainable groundwater management 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:09.240 in the Phoenix metropolitan area. So in Arizona we have 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:12.800 some of the most progressive groundwater management laws that you 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:16.800 will find not only in this country, but literally in 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:21.920 the world. Back in nineteen eighty we passed groundwater management 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:28.200 that effectively ties water availability to the ability to grow. 0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:31.560 And so what that means is that if you're going 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:36.360 to subdivide land, which is typically how growth occurs, particularly 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:39.760 for you know what we call subdivisions, right like residential 0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:43.960 subdivision in the Phoenix metropolitan area. If you are going 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:47.400 to subdivide land and grow, you have to prove that 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:51.680 you have one hundred years of water available for that development. 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:56.960 It is a really high bar to me, necessarily so 0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:01.839 because you can imagine that people will only invest in 0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:06.080 our economy. Enterprises will only come to the Phoenix area 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:10.280 if they understand that we have secure water supplies, because 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:12.160 we're out here in the middle of that destr right. 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:17.919 So what the governor announced was actually that all the 0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:22.440 groundwater in the Phoenix metropolitan Area is essentially spoken for. 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:27.120 It is allocated and expected to be used by those 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:29.320 who have a right to it over the next one 0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:33.600 hundred years. So our announcement really was that you can 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:38.200 continue to grow, but if you are going to continue 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:40.960 to grow, it needs to either be in a place 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:45.839 that already has demonstrated this one hundred year assured water supply, 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:50.359 or if you're going to grow out on the fringes 0:05:50.520 --> 0:05:53.840 of the Valley of the Sun, outside of the boundaries 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:57.159 of places that have this one hundred year assured water 0:05:57.160 --> 0:06:02.640 supply designation, you can't grow on groundwater. You can grow 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:06.760 on other water supplies, but not groundwater. So it is 0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:10.920 essentially a way of protecting the groundwater so that it 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:13.000 is available for those who already have a claim to 0:06:13.040 --> 0:06:14.839 it and for those who come after. 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:19.279 So let me ask, let me back up even further 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:22.560 all the way I guess to like the Paleolithic era. 0:06:23.160 --> 0:06:26.920 But when we talk about water availability in Arizona and 0:06:26.920 --> 0:06:32.239 in Phoenix specifically, setting aside constraints, currently, how much water 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:36.000 is there and where is it coming from? Because of 0:06:36.000 --> 0:06:41.080 course you make the you distinguish between groundwater versus other sources. 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:43.880 So what exactly is available in that area? 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:49.080 You know, I love this question because it's super important. 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:53.840 Central Arizona in particular is blessed with very large and 0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:59.360 very productive groundwater aquifers. That means, in layman terms, there's 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:04.799 a lot of ground. Unfortunately, it's fossil groundwater, meaning that 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:10.320 it is not annually renewed by Mother Nature at any 0:07:10.360 --> 0:07:14.040 significant rate. It's like an oil field, right, okay, and 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:19.200 probably more valuable to us, I will say so. But 0:07:19.400 --> 0:07:23.000 Arizona also, of course has its own rivers. Those rivers 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:27.640 are depending on snow melt from our mountains, and Phoenix 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:31.200 in particular is located where three of the state's main 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:37.560 rivers come together. So Although people, you know, criticize Phoenix 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:39.200 for being a big city out in the middle of 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:42.000 the desert, what they don't really understand is that Phoenix 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:46.520 was actually very carefully chosen by ancient Native Americans who 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:50.360 first settled there and who have lived there since crime immemorial. 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:54.960 Because Phoenix is where three big rivers come together, so 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:59.800 there's a large amount of service water. There's also this 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:06.840 native groundwater, fossil groundwater, and then we import Colorado River 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:11.840 water from western Arizona into central Arizona as well, so 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:18.200 there is a lot of water. There's enough water for 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:22.960 what we most value. I think the question is that 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:28.240 there is probably not enough water for everything. So we 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:31.320 really have to dial in on what are these things, 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:34.560 what are these enterprises, What are these uses of water 0:08:34.640 --> 0:08:35.600 that we most want. 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:39.079 I guess we'll just keep jumping back and forth between 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:43.520 the current time and history the ancient era. But you know, 0:08:43.640 --> 0:08:47.960 you mentioned that per the Governor's New Order, that if 0:08:48.000 --> 0:08:51.040 you want to build or grow in certain areas, you 0:08:51.080 --> 0:08:51.920 can still do it. 0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:52.839 You just have to. 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:56.600 Find another source of water that's not the groundwater. That 0:08:56.640 --> 0:08:59.760 the ground that the one hundred years of groundwater availability 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:04.080 is essentially spoken for already can you talk through I 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:07.000 guess some of the maybe it's the economics or the 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:10.520 considerations that would go you know, into thinking like, Okay, 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:14.280 some entity wants to grow what is the second best 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:17.120 source of water for them that if they no longer 0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:19.560 have access to the sort of underground fossil water. 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:25.520 So it is all about economics. There are alternatives. The 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:31.480 question is how expensive are those alternatives and would you 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:36.320 not just be better off economically by developing more in 0:09:36.360 --> 0:09:38.360 the center of the value of the sun and the 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:43.160 Phoenix metropolitan area where there is already one hundred years 0:09:43.240 --> 0:09:47.040 hird water supply designation. Right, So this in some way 0:09:48.320 --> 0:09:55.439 balances the economics between continued sprawl which was cheaper on groundwater, 0:09:56.559 --> 0:10:03.839 versus infield development where water supplies and warsure. But yeah, 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:09.600 there are alternatives. There are farmers that are willing to 0:10:11.200 --> 0:10:16.840 basically sell their higher priority water rights, and an entity 0:10:16.920 --> 0:10:20.560 could theoretically purchase those water rights off of the main 0:10:20.640 --> 0:10:23.079 stem in western Arizona, the main ten mouth of the 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:27.200 Colorado River, and to import them through the Central Arizona 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:31.600 Project Canal into Central Arizona. That is hugely controversial, not 0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:35.760 to mention extremely expensive, but for example, the town of 0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:40.080 Queen Creek, which does not have a designation of a 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:42.760 one hundred year shared water supply. The town of Queen 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:46.280 Creek is in the process of doing just that because 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:48.599 they want to continue to grow, so for them, the 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:50.040 economics work. 0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:57.000 For individual developers, I think that's a much steeper proposition, right. 0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:00.040 It's one thing for an entire town to decide to 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:01.680 import those types of supplies. 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:05.079 If you're just an independent developer, that might. 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:10.400 Be substantially more efficult kinds it, but that is a possibility. 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:14.920 There are also Indian tribes in central Arizona that at 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:18.559 least historically have been willing to lease some of their 0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:25.400 water for these purposes. It's really expensive, but it's possible. 0:11:26.760 --> 0:11:32.440 There are also groundwater basins outside of the Phoenix metropolitan 0:11:32.520 --> 0:11:39.040 area that are specifically designated for the purpose of being 0:11:39.120 --> 0:11:43.880 pumped and transporting that groundwater into the Phoenix metropolitan area, 0:11:44.679 --> 0:11:47.199 sort of like in Owens Valley in California. If you 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:50.520 know that story. You pump someone else's groundwater basin dry 0:11:51.559 --> 0:11:56.440 and import it into an urban center, not saying that's sustainable, 0:11:57.360 --> 0:12:00.439 but it is legally feasible in a z on them 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:05.559 and then of course, there's reclaimed water, there's the potential 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:10.479 to use desalinated breckage groundwater or ocean water. There are alternatives. 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:14.480 These are all just really really expensive. So if you're 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:16.720 a developer, you got to be thinking, Okay, would I 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:22.079 rather try to pursue this continued sprawl type subdivision development 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:26.880 or might I be better off purchasing more expensive land 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:29.720 that comes with an assured water. 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:49.760 Sorry to jump back and forth again, but can I 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:52.000 ask another backup question. 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:53.600 Wherever you want? It's all good. 0:12:53.679 --> 0:12:55.960 I think we're on like two separate timelines. 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:58.840 No, but I find it helpful for about like the 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:00.920 different types of water, and you're totally right. 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:04.520 Well, okay, so just on this note, But the current 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:09.040 water constraints, what are they being caused by? Is it 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:14.280 simply economic development and population growth? Is it climate change? 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:17.160 I imagine it's a combination of a bunch of different factors. 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:20.400 But can you maybe explain the constraints to us and 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:26.200 then how those constraints inform the current thinking around water availability. 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:32.440 So the constraints relating to groundwater that I described I 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:37.800 have to do both with farming and with continued urban development. 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:41.440 You can imagine there are a lot of demands on 0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:44.920 our aquifers. Right there's continued farming in the Valley of 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:48.960 the Sun. Farming in the desert Southwest is a very 0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:53.679 water intensive enterprise. Farmers continue to draw from the aquifer 0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:56.760 and they have the ability to do so in perpetuity. 0:13:56.840 --> 0:14:02.800 They were essentially grandfathered in to the groundwater pumping restraints 0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:05.520 under the nineteen eighty Groundwater Management Act, so they have 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:08.679 a perpetual right to come and they continue to do so. 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:13.480 And then, of course the cities have grown in population 0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:18.480 as well, particularly since World War Two, and you know, 0:14:18.559 --> 0:14:21.960 they draw on the aquifer for potable water needs as well. 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:26.000 And then there's various industries that also draw from the aquifer. 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:28.240 And so I think it's a combination of all of 0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:34.840 those demands that are creating the constraints on groundwater. Essentially, 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.400 what the state is coming out and saying is that, look, 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:41.000 all that groundwater is spoken for, you know, and not 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:45.440 just spoken for today. The state looks out one hundred years. 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:48.960 We're very proactive about our water management out here in 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:52.640 the desert because we have to be. But what the 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.040 state is saying is that that groundwater over this one 0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:59.200 hundred year chunk of time is spoken for. So those 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:02.440 constraints are kind of caused by a combination of all 0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:08.360 those demands, but also the intentional regulatory decision to protect 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:11.960 and guard those resources for the future. Right the state 0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:14.000 is essentially signaling no, we're not just going to let 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:17.920 you deplete this awkward for Chiller's and nothing left. Regarding 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:23.040 surface water, that's a really different constraint. So I mentioned 0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:26.680 that we have that Phoenix is located where three major 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:30.760 rivers come together. The value of the sun is lucky 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:34.240 to enjoy the flows of the Salt and Verting rivers. 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:39.240 That river system is actually managed by the Salt River Project. 0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:43.360 It's called it is one of the Beerau Reclamation's oldest 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:48.080 projects and dates back I believe to Oh my goodness, 0:15:48.400 --> 0:15:52.920 nineteen oh, nineteen ten. I don't know. I probably have 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:56.800 that wrong. It's very old. It predates statehood for us. 0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:04.400 The flows of that system actually are relatively resilient and sustainable, 0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:07.440 even in the face of climate change. There's a couple 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:11.920 of reasons for that. Scientists has studied the hydrology of 0:16:11.960 --> 0:16:18.520 those watersheds, and certainly climate change will affect those watersheds. 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:25.400 We can expect some diminishment of snowpack and precipitation in 0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:30.760 our mountains. But the way I understand it, not being 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:34.120 a hydrologist, is that they're saying that, look, you know, 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:39.720 Arizona is already baked, right, It's already it's already hot 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:41.880 and dry here, and yeah, it might give us feel 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:46.360 hotter and dryer, but they don't expect that the flows 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:49.000 of the Saltenbodi River system will be affected as much as, 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:53.400 for example, the flows of the Colorado itself might be affected. 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:57.480 And then if you add to that the fact that 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:02.200 the entire value of the sun the whole Phoenix metropolitan 0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:07.600 area used to be agricultural, and that again dates back 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:11.879 all the way to time immemorial with the Native Americans 0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:16.359 who first farmed this valley, and in fact, our modern 0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:20.359 day canal system follows in many ways the same ancient 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:24.119 canal systems that Native Americans first dug. So we were 0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:28.520 always in an agricultural valley. Particularly during World War II. 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:32.280 A lot of that agriculture increased because of the need 0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:36.159 to grow cotton for war material and at the time 0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:39.840 that bull weav was decimating cotton in the southeast, and 0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:43.720 so Arizona was a natural place to grow it. And 0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:46.679 our cotton yields are very high because it turns out 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:49.120 all cotton needs is water and sun, and we got 0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:53.640 a lot of sun. So we've been in an agricultural valley. Now, 0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:57.760 what's interesting about that is that it takes on the 0:17:57.880 --> 0:18:03.840 order of three to six acre feet per acre to 0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:08.160 grow cotton or alf alpha in our hot desert sun, 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:12.920 whereas it only takes about an acre and I'm sorry, 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:17.960 an acrefoot per acre to grow a subdivision. Urban water 0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:23.080 uses are much less intensive per acre than farming dist 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:26.800 And so interestingly, as the Valley of the Sun converted 0:18:26.880 --> 0:18:30.639 from what was largely an agricultural valley into an urban one, 0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:34.760 there was a natural water savings built in. So whereas 0:18:34.760 --> 0:18:37.840 we used to use about one and a half million 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:40.880 acre feet of water off the Salt and Birdy River system, 0:18:41.760 --> 0:18:46.440 today that system delivers about half that amount. So there's 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:49.359 just this very natural water savings that was built into 0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:53.480 the way we grew. And then I'm sorry being really 0:18:55.400 --> 0:19:00.399 really interesting. Okay, good stop me at any time. But 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:02.760 then if you take a look at the Colorado River system, 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:08.760 that's where we have just some real problems. The Colorado 0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:14.320 River system is overallocated, probably at least by one point 0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:20.320 two million acre per year, maybe more. And then if 0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:22.560 you add on top of that the fact that we've 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:25.720 been experiencing, you know, as you said, twenty years of 0:19:25.760 --> 0:19:28.080 what has been one of the worst routes on the 0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:32.400 paleo record, and the fact that the climate is changing 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:35.679 and scientists are telling us that the flows of the 0:19:35.680 --> 0:19:38.760 Colorado River might diminish by as much as thirty percent. 0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:43.679 You know, that's a really big problem, right, and I 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:46.760 think that's why the Commissioner of the Bureau of Reclamation 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:49.080 came out and said, hey, look, guys, you're gonna have 0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:52.000 to cut millions of acre feet in water consumption to 0:19:52.400 --> 0:19:53.959 stabilize this river system. 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:56.959 So, I mean, that was a great answer, and you 0:19:57.040 --> 0:19:59.480 sort of hit on things that both of the other 0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:02.520 guests that we've talked to about this topic brought up 0:20:02.520 --> 0:20:04.399 and see it from their angle. And so, you know, 0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:07.879 we talked to Chase Summerson, a real estate broker, and 0:20:07.880 --> 0:20:10.080 he made the exact point that you made that actually, 0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:16.600 as Arizona's water consumption shifts from agriculture to residential use, 0:20:16.640 --> 0:20:20.400 it actually results in the net savings and actually improves 0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:21.440 the sustainability. 0:20:21.720 --> 0:20:23.560 On the other hand. You know, we talked to an. 0:20:23.560 --> 0:20:27.160 LFLFA farmer and he's like, you know, our family's been 0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:31.160 doing this on this land for eight generations or something 0:20:31.240 --> 0:20:33.960 like that. And so, you know, as you noted, you know, 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:37.159 you mentioned that farmers are sort of grandfathered in. So 0:20:37.200 --> 0:20:40.960 can you sort of quantify or talk about the sort 0:20:41.000 --> 0:20:46.120 of implicit subsidy to agriculture that comes from having been 0:20:46.200 --> 0:20:50.399 grandfathered in? And like, what is the gap between how much, say, 0:20:50.760 --> 0:20:52.679 farmers are willing to pay for an acre foot of 0:20:52.720 --> 0:20:57.439 water versus you know, a housing developer either inside the 0:20:57.520 --> 0:20:58.920 Valley of the Sun or nearby. 0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:03.680 You know, the subsidy doesn't really come in the form 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:07.080 of water. Okay, let me explain that in a couple 0:21:07.119 --> 0:21:11.160 of ways. Yes, under the nineteen eighty Groundwater Management Act, 0:21:11.200 --> 0:21:15.080 farmers were basically grandfathered in and they have a perpetual 0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:19.040 right to pump groundwater. I guess you can view that 0:21:19.080 --> 0:21:24.560 as a subsidy, though the cities and private water companies 0:21:24.720 --> 0:21:30.000 that also lay claim to groundwater don't really pay much 0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:35.560 for that groundwater either, Okay, Right, And I don't know 0:21:35.600 --> 0:21:38.720 that I would say that farmers are subsidized so much. 0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:43.359 I think that the difference in the cost that a 0:21:43.440 --> 0:21:47.320 developer pays for water versus what a farmer pays for 0:21:47.400 --> 0:21:50.400 water really has more to do with the fact that 0:21:50.800 --> 0:21:57.359 development is not allowed to rely on mining this fossil groundwater, 0:21:57.880 --> 0:22:01.959 and instead they have to invest in and renewable surface 0:22:02.000 --> 0:22:07.280 water supplies and particularly in the infrastructure necessary to deliver 0:22:07.400 --> 0:22:11.400 it to customers tabs. So I think that in turn 0:22:11.560 --> 0:22:14.240 that really the cost difference has more to do with 0:22:14.680 --> 0:22:19.000 the acquisition of renewable water supplies and the need to 0:22:19.040 --> 0:22:24.040 develop infrastructure, if that makes sense. And on the Colorado 0:22:24.160 --> 0:22:30.879 River it's different. So the Groundwater Management Act applies to 0:22:30.960 --> 0:22:34.920 central Arizona, it does not apply to western Arizona. And 0:22:34.920 --> 0:22:37.920 in western Arizona on the main stem of the Coloratda River, 0:22:38.720 --> 0:22:42.920 the farmers and Indian communities have the highest priority water 0:22:43.040 --> 0:22:46.720 rates because of course Western water lies based on first 0:22:46.720 --> 0:22:50.080 and time first and right, turns out Native Americans we're 0:22:50.080 --> 0:22:54.440 here first. Turns out, you know, farmers kind of came 0:22:54.480 --> 0:22:57.159 along the text, and so they just they have the 0:22:57.240 --> 0:23:03.520 highest priority water rates. Any subsidy that they receive really 0:23:03.560 --> 0:23:09.360 relates more to the infrastructure that often but not always, 0:23:09.720 --> 0:23:14.560 has been built by the federal government, typically with repayment provisions, 0:23:14.640 --> 0:23:21.880 though at times those repayment provisions are lax. I guess 0:23:22.359 --> 0:23:22.760 it does. 0:23:23.760 --> 0:23:25.760 It leads into something I wanted to ask you, which 0:23:25.800 --> 0:23:30.280 is you mentioned infrastructure there, and I guess one question 0:23:31.080 --> 0:23:34.360 I have. You know, maybe even before we get to 0:23:34.359 --> 0:23:38.919 tougher decisions about constraining development or maybe pricing water in 0:23:38.960 --> 0:23:41.720 a different way, but to what degree can these water 0:23:41.800 --> 0:23:47.000 constraints be solved with better water management and newer infrastructure. 0:23:48.200 --> 0:23:56.040 Reinvestment in aging infrastructure will certainly help, but it will 0:23:56.080 --> 0:24:01.240 not be the answer. It's difficult to deploy that at scale. 0:24:01.800 --> 0:24:05.000 So for example, when I was a director of Phoenix 0:24:05.040 --> 0:24:09.880 Water Services, I asked the engineers to calculate how much 0:24:09.920 --> 0:24:15.800 water the city of Phoenix was losing two leaky pipes. Now, 0:24:16.119 --> 0:24:19.359 to put this in context, here in central Arizona, the 0:24:19.440 --> 0:24:24.000 cities have are regulated such that their water losses in 0:24:24.040 --> 0:24:28.359 their distribution systems cannot exceed ten percent, which is very low. 0:24:28.480 --> 0:24:32.720 If you look nationwide, water losses are probably at least 0:24:32.760 --> 0:24:36.160 something more like thirty percent. But because water scarce here 0:24:36.200 --> 0:24:40.680 were regulated, you know, to a higher standard. But the 0:24:40.720 --> 0:24:44.760 amount of water that is lost in Phoenix water distribution 0:24:44.840 --> 0:24:47.960 system pipelines is about twenty five thousand acre feet of 0:24:48.080 --> 0:24:52.160 water per year. That's a lot of water. But when 0:24:52.160 --> 0:24:54.639 you're talking about a problem on the Colorado River that 0:24:54.800 --> 0:24:58.160 is on the order of two million acre feet, you're 0:24:58.200 --> 0:25:02.560 not going to get there. Probably a part of the 0:25:02.560 --> 0:25:06.760 solution space, I think an important one. I can get 0:25:06.800 --> 0:25:08.800 out my pipeline soap box if you want me to, 0:25:09.000 --> 0:25:11.800 but I think that investing in pipelines is probably one 0:25:11.800 --> 0:25:14.320 of the best things here for water quality and for 0:25:14.400 --> 0:25:18.160 water resiliency, but it's unlikely to be deployed a scale 0:25:18.400 --> 0:25:20.520 to fix the problems from the color. 0:25:37.800 --> 0:25:41.000 Can I ask a question about perspective, because you know, 0:25:41.080 --> 0:25:44.000 I don't have any impulse. I mean, I really like 0:25:44.160 --> 0:25:47.280 the Southwest, but it's very unlikely that I'm going to 0:25:47.280 --> 0:25:51.000 be moving to Arizona anytime soon. That being said, I 0:25:51.080 --> 0:25:55.400 regularly do consume food, including beef that may have come 0:25:55.440 --> 0:25:59.080 from colors, that may have eaten elfalfa that was grown, 0:25:59.760 --> 0:26:00.840 you know, in Arizona. 0:26:00.920 --> 0:26:02.560 So I have a fancy racehorse. 0:26:02.760 --> 0:26:07.439 No, no, I don't know a horse that consumes it. 0:26:07.480 --> 0:26:11.800 But like eat, I eat food, and the desert, other 0:26:11.880 --> 0:26:14.080 than not having much rain, seems to be a pretty 0:26:14.080 --> 0:26:17.119 great place to grow food due to stable conditions and 0:26:17.280 --> 0:26:20.800 other things that you've already talked about. When thinking about 0:26:20.960 --> 0:26:24.600