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Speaker 1: They're happy Wednesday and welcome to another episode of the

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Speaker 1: Chuck Toodcast. So I will. I don't want to call

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Speaker 1: it jet lag, but I have been quite a bit

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Speaker 1: of course, have been on my own little fun emotional

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Speaker 1: roller coaster, being a Miami Hurricanes fan. Was at the

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Speaker 1: National title game. I have a lot more to share,

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Speaker 1: a lot more to say on it, and I will

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Speaker 1: save it for the end. There's also have a diverse

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Speaker 1: you know, I know some of you are saying, Okay,

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Speaker 1: college football, we get it. You love your Hurricanes. You

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Speaker 1: know at some point, you know, we like you doing

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Speaker 1: a little bit of sports. Can you do some other sports? Well,

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry the Hurricanes made it all the way to

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Speaker 1: the title game. I'm sorry I had to take it

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Speaker 1: all the way to the last day of the year.

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Speaker 1: I promise I will not do weekly portal updates on

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Speaker 1: who's been signed and who's shown up in spring practice.

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Speaker 1: But today also happens to be we last night we

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Speaker 1: got to find out about who's the newest members of

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Speaker 1: the Baseball Hall of Fame. And you know, I'm a

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Speaker 1: guy of a certain age, which means I have definitive

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Speaker 1: hot takes on Baseball Hall of famers. But all of

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Speaker 1: that I will put to the end. Let me give

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Speaker 1: you a quick little table of contents for today's episode. Uh,

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Speaker 1: we got more fallout from what we discussed on Monday

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Speaker 1: and this sort of destabilizing moment that we have with

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Speaker 1: the world order. Uh and UH that is this is

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Speaker 1: a we're no, We're no to say we're in a

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Speaker 1: weird place as an understatement, which we've we've been discussed

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Speaker 1: for quite a bit. Uh. It is a it is

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Speaker 1: a it is a Wednesday, which means I owe you

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Speaker 1: a top five lists, and we've got some senate races.

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Speaker 1: I think to recalibrate a bit, so we will do

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Speaker 1: a top five list on that. I'll take a few questions.

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Speaker 1: But before we get into that, look, I I made

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Speaker 1: a pretty strong case that you know what is happening

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Speaker 1: right now with Donald Trump, and and that that he

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Speaker 1: is potentially stumbled, stumbling into a war where he's going

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Speaker 1: to get We're going to be less safe and less

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Speaker 1: secure than we've ever been before. And it makes doing

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Speaker 1: political analysis here quite challenging, right because, look, it's obvious

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Speaker 1: to anybody that has been a practitioner of campaign politics,

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Speaker 1: of campaign messaging, anybody with a just a minute interest

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Speaker 1: and understanding of American political history knows that what Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump is doing right now is not good politics, at

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Speaker 1: least if you're judging him by any conventional measure that

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Speaker 1: we've relied on over the last half century. And before

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Speaker 1: anybody starts screaming, wow, we know Trump, conventional politics doesn't

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Speaker 1: apply to Trump. Yeah, of course, but let me becauve

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Speaker 1: this isn't some clever, disruptive strategy either, it's erratic, it's destabilizing,

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Speaker 1: and it's increasingly detached from the basic assumption that have

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Speaker 1: governed American leadership for generations. And you know, look, I

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Speaker 1: did my Monday monologue before we saw this nonsense of

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Speaker 1: a one year presser or whatever you want to call

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Speaker 1: the two hour diatribe that he had before he left

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Speaker 1: for Davos on Tuesday. But it is you know, this

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Speaker 1: is why I am dubbing this a man who may

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Speaker 1: have the Yolo virus, which I will get into that

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Speaker 1: in a minute. But I think what's most unsettling and

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Speaker 1: striking about this moment is how none of the usual

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Speaker 1: political penalties seem to apply to Trump. And I think

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Speaker 1: this is why we've had such paralysis and responding to

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Speaker 1: what I think is a absolute international and national emergency

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Speaker 1: right now if we want to prevent the entire free

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Speaker 1: world order from completely cracking. I mean, when you listen

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Speaker 1: to what Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, had

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Speaker 1: to say in Davos, you know, this is a country

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Speaker 1: that is preparing and worrying that it's neighbor to the

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Speaker 1: south could invade, right And that seemed like ridiculous and

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Speaker 1: silliness even saying that six months ago, six weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: maybe even six days ago. But given the situation we're in,

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Speaker 1: I think everybody is recalculating how they handle Trump. The

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Speaker 1: appeasement of Donald Trump of the last year by Europe

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Speaker 1: and the Western world is coming to an end. And

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Speaker 1: the question is who is he going to get angry

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Speaker 1: at and punished for it? So far, he continues to

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Speaker 1: attack American taxpayers. When he gets angry at a European

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Speaker 1: response to what he wants to do with Greenland, he

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Speaker 1: threatens tariffs or increases tariffs. The irony to this is

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Speaker 1: it does not punish France, and it does not punish

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Speaker 1: the UK the way he thinks it does. It punishes

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Speaker 1: all of us all it is all of these tariffs

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Speaker 1: are paid for by us. Again, the magical math that

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Speaker 1: he keeps trying to claim it is amazing to me

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Speaker 1: how excited the Secretary of Treasury in the President of

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Speaker 1: the United States are on how much they've taxed the

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Speaker 1: American people over the last six months and how much

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Speaker 1: more taxes the American people are going to be paying

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Speaker 1: over the next year. And they think this is good politics.

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Speaker 1: But here we are, and the conventional ways that politicians

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Speaker 1: get punished, have disappeared. So it raises an uncomfortable question.

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Speaker 1: What's keeping people who call themselves Trump supporters, especially elected Republicans,

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Speaker 1: who know what's happening here is wrong, from speaking out. Well,

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Speaker 1: we know that part of the answer sphere. That's always

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Speaker 1: been the case, not fear of voters, but fear of

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Speaker 1: what happens inside the Republican party when dissent becomes visible.

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Speaker 1: We've seen this movie before. Go back to the first term.

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Speaker 1: Remember Bob Corker then a Senator from Tennessee. He had

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Speaker 1: want to hear he's a great Tennessee, East Tennessee accent,

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Speaker 1: and I used to try to impersonate a little bit.

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Speaker 1: But you know, you know, Chuck, I just I don't

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Speaker 1: want to have to talk about Trump. But he used

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Speaker 1: to say he was the one that used that expression

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Speaker 1: that the White House had become an adult daycare. And

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Speaker 1: of course Trump explodes, Bob Corker's political career is over,

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Speaker 1: and you haven't even heard from Bob Corker. While I

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Speaker 1: understand why he is just out right, he is out

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Speaker 1: a lot of sort of the Tennessee Republicans of ten

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Speaker 1: years ago. Lamar Alexander Bob corkor Bill Frist. None of

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Speaker 1: them have been wanted to get near the Trump era,

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Speaker 1: and it is and in some ways they've been ostracized

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Speaker 1: themselves a little bit. So we know why there's so

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Speaker 1: much silence, right. Silence for many of them feels like

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Speaker 1: self preservation in the moment that we're in. But it

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Speaker 1: comes with a huge cost, because if you believe what

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Speaker 1: Trump is doing is reckless, even dangerous, staying silent doesn't

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Speaker 1: make you neutral, it makes you complicit with voters. Eventually,

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Speaker 1: voters are going to ask the most basic question, where

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Speaker 1: were the guardrails? And in this case, there is one guardrail, Congress.

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Speaker 1: It's the only one that's going to work here, okay,

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Speaker 1: And that's really the heart of the problem. The guardrails

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Speaker 1: that the founders gave us, the Constitution, the separation of powers,

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Speaker 1: institutional norms. They don't activate themselves, right, You got to

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Speaker 1: have human beings to do it. Institutions are just paper

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Speaker 1: without people willing to defend them. And paper does not

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Speaker 1: restrain power. Certainly, paper does not restrain Donald John Trump.

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Speaker 1: People will And one of my biggest fears right now

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Speaker 1: is that, well, it's how numb we've become to all

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Speaker 1: this and see and you see it even in the

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Speaker 1: reaction that I've gotten from you know, the crowd that

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Speaker 1: just wants to tune it all out right. Oh, you know,

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Speaker 1: politics has just gotten crazy, and Trump's just the lead

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Speaker 1: crazy guy. You're like, no, no, no, no, this is different

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Speaker 1: and dangerous. Trump's norm breaking, unfortunately, is barely registering right now.

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Speaker 1: My new favorite was sort of instead of Trump derangement syndrome,

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Speaker 1: we have almost Trump exhaustion syndrome, as I think is

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Speaker 1: what the Atlantic dubbed it. And there is this exhaustion

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Speaker 1: is almost as bad as appeasement, because in some way

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Speaker 1: to deal with exhaustion, you end up appeasing and that

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Speaker 1: is not a healthy reaction either. But that's where we are.

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Speaker 1: Because each one of these violations that Trump makes, gets absorbed,

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Speaker 1: gets rationalized, gets dismissed, is just another Trump era. The headline.

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Speaker 1: He now operates in an environment where the consequences frankly

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Speaker 1: feel optional, and from his perspective, why wouldn't they. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he incited riot on January sixth and almost overturned an election.

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Speaker 1: He was impeached, he wasn't convicted, and then he was

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Speaker 1: elected president again. So what political lesson do you take

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Speaker 1: from that? If you're Donald Trump, probably the following, the

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Speaker 1: more radical, the better. Never give in, never give up.

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Speaker 1: What feels impossible today becomes someone else's capitulation tomorrow. And

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Speaker 1: that's what he's counting on with Greenland here. And it's

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Speaker 1: interesting we're watching and I don't know what we're seeing

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Speaker 1: with the European and Western leaders right now, whether we're

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Speaker 1: seeing the Bob Corkers of Europe speaking out like many

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Speaker 1: Republicans spoke out during the crazy of the first term,

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Speaker 1: and you had you had more erected guardrails around him,

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Speaker 1: whether it was John Kelly or Ryank's previous or Rex

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Speaker 1: Tillerson or even Jared Kushner at times, Gary Kohane, Right,

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Speaker 1: you had a Siri, you know in that cabinet, which

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Speaker 1: Mike Pence. Of course, I'm of two minds on this, right,

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Speaker 1: is this is Europe now? Finally? Is this is Europe

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Speaker 1: one point zero? And it just like with Trump one

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Speaker 1: point zero? Or are they serious? And if they're serious,

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Speaker 1: we all have to be both nervous and at the

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Speaker 1: same time. The more serious the Europeans get, does it

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Speaker 1: actually strengthened the spine of nervous Republicans who have been

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Speaker 1: afraid but so far right. That's why he's behaving the

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Speaker 1: way he is. So even those of us in the

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Speaker 1: media and in politics who've warned for years that this

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Speaker 1: behavior is dangerous, we've become numbed by the repetition. Many

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Speaker 1: of the worst case scenarios so far haven't fully materialized,

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Speaker 1: but damage doesn't have to be immediate to be real.

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Speaker 1: Trump has steadily weakened American credibility abroad in ways that

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Speaker 1: are subtle, cumulative, and now harder to reverse than ever before.

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Speaker 1: And because you know it was one thing to reverse

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Speaker 1: it after one term, it's much harder after two. And

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Speaker 1: because there's no single moment when the bill comes due,

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Speaker 1: the reckoning may arrive too late to stop. Now here's

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Speaker 1: the paradox. One year into Trump two point zero. Periodically, politically,

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Speaker 1: he's in terrible shape, just terrible shape. And under normal

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Speaker 1: circumstances this would matter because when public sentiment turns through polls, elections,

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Speaker 1: or pressure. All of this has happened, right, He got

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Speaker 1: a disastrous twenty twenty five election result, every special election

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Speaker 1: has gone against him. His numbers are as low as

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Speaker 1: they've ever been. Normally under those circumstances. When it happened

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Speaker 1: at George W. Bush, he decided to fade a bit

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Speaker 1: in the background. Barack Obama fade a bit in the background.

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Speaker 1: What happened to the party in power? Party in power

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Speaker 1: sought a little distance from the president. Right, you're not

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Speaker 1: seeing that happen at the moment. Trump has remade the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party in his image. There are no Bob Corkers.

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Speaker 1: They're not as many Corkers right. Some of his biggest

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Speaker 1: critics from Trump one point zero have become surrogates, Ted Cruz,

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Speaker 1: Marco Rubio, Some just simply headed for the exits are

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Speaker 1: heading for the exits, Tom Tillis, Mitch McConnell. And then

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Speaker 1: there is a couple that just survive on political islands.

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Speaker 1: They're visible, but they're powerless. Think Lisa Murkowski or Thomas Massy.

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Speaker 1: So what's left to be a check on the damage

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Speaker 1: that he's inflicting. Well, we did get a little clue

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday morning, And on Tuesday it's the markets. It's

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Speaker 1: the economy in general. Right, when foreign policy guardrails fail,

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Speaker 1: the only one that reliably moves voters is the guardrail

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Speaker 1: of the wallet. But even that has its limits. Most

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Speaker 1: Americans don't connect alliance erosion overseas to higher prices or

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Speaker 1: diminished security until it's unavoidable. But the stock market can

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Speaker 1: put a big spotlight on this issue. And the stock

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Speaker 1: market just cratered Tuesday. And we'll see if that changes

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Speaker 1: his tune when he actually heads to Davos to talk

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Speaker 1: Greenland later this week. Because what the markets understand and

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Speaker 1: what equity understands is that trade wars turn into security

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Speaker 1: nightmares much faster than we'd like to admit. We are

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Speaker 1: not a long view political culture which brings us to history.

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Speaker 1: You know. One of the things about so called the

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Speaker 1: American consensus is actually how narrow the consensus ends up being,

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Speaker 1: even as it sort of ends up being representative of

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Speaker 1: all of us at some point. So the point being

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Speaker 1: is this, it's usually fifty two or fifty five percent

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Speaker 1: of the population that help us with our quote American consensus.

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Speaker 1: It's not like a seventy percent landslide. An example of

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Speaker 1: this in nineteen fifty two, when Republicans finally rejected isolationism

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Speaker 1: and American first protectionism by nominating Dwight Eisenhower. Over where

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Speaker 1: the base of the party wanted to be right. They

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Speaker 1: didn't do that out of purity, and they didn't do

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Speaker 1: that out of a total rejection of isolationism. They actually

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Speaker 1: just did it out of desperation because they were tired

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Speaker 1: of losing the presidency after twenty four years. Remember when

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Speaker 1: Eisenhower gets elected in fifty two, Republicans hadn't won a

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Speaker 1: presidential election since nineteen twenty eight. Let me repeat fifty two.

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Speaker 1: They elect Eisenhower. They hadn't elected president in twenty eight.

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Speaker 1: So it took that Republican Party a generation to realize

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Speaker 1: isolationism and protectionism is terrible politics and more importantly, terrible

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Speaker 1: for the country. Is it going to take another twenty

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Speaker 1: four years first to learn this time? And what's the

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Speaker 1: country going to look like after twenty four years of

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Speaker 1: having to learn that lesson? We'll see. But the point

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Speaker 1: was it was a narrow vote, right, It wasn't really

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Speaker 1: a huge consensus, right, Republicans rallied around Eisenhower, not out

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Speaker 1: of some sort of ideological agreement, but just out of

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Speaker 1: a desperation to win. I point out that history because

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Speaker 1: that actually is what I use to give myself optimism.

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Speaker 1: You know that I always go back into history and say, well,

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Speaker 1: that was something similar and we eventually figured it out,

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Speaker 1: and YadA YadA ya. This episode of the Chuck Podcast

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Speaker 1: slash chuck. But it does raise a more urgent question,

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Speaker 1: how do we get from here to there in one piece?

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Speaker 1: Because the truth is the only institution capable of restraining

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Speaker 1: the damage Trump is doing to America's role in the

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Speaker 1: world is Congress, and Congress is failing. We've pointed this

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Speaker 1: out no numerous times, and when Congress and the courts

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Speaker 1: choose not to act I mean the courts also are failing.

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Speaker 1: They are still not going to come out with their

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Speaker 1: terra fruoling for another month. We have another month where

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Speaker 1: you got Scott Bessett trying to trying to make the

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Speaker 1: tariff compare the illegal tariffs that Trump has been like

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Speaker 1: that are likely illegal if you read the letter of

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Speaker 1: the law and the constitution that somehow it's comparable to Obamacare,

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Speaker 1: and it was Obama's signature initiative. No whether the Supreme

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Speaker 1: Court would overturn it, this is Trump's signature initiative. First

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Speaker 1: of all, Scott Bessett, you want to make raising taxes

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Speaker 1: on the American people ten to twenty five percent a

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Speaker 1: signature accomplishment of Donald Trump. That is some messaging you

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Speaker 1: got there. Brother. I don't know if I would want

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Speaker 1: to make tax sikes my signature signature thing, but it is.

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Speaker 1: That is an interesting spin. But the courts are delaying

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Speaker 1: yet another month before they're going to rule. And the

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Speaker 1: longer they delay, the harder it is to unwind these things,

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Speaker 1: and the more chaos following the Constitution may create. And

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Speaker 1: then if you start making, you decide, well, oh boy,

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Speaker 1: the toothpaste is out of the tube. So even though

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Speaker 1: we should rule it as unconstitutional, we're not because we

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Speaker 1: don't want to create chaos that would be that would

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Speaker 1: be one of the first signs that the Republic is

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Speaker 1: failing if we have a judiciary that is behaving behaving

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Speaker 1: that way. But the fact is, when Congress chooses not

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Speaker 1: to act, it's not the democracy who's going to collapse overnight.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't, but it does hollow it out. And that's

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Speaker 1: when citizens begin to feel powerless, right, and all that's

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Speaker 1: left are elections, and hopefully citizens will use elections to

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Speaker 1: do this and not try to take matters into their

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Speaker 1: own hands. And you know, that's another fear I have

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Speaker 1: understandable fear, but it's one. So maybe the midterms become

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Speaker 1: a revolt something like nineteen seventy four, and that's possible,

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Speaker 1: and maybe that sobers up the party. It's what sobered

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Speaker 1: up Republicans post Nixon. But there's a lot of time

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Speaker 1: between now and November of twenty twenty six. And if

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Speaker 1: a president feels untouchable, if he's infected, but what I

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Speaker 1: can only described as the political Yolo virus, because I

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Speaker 1: really think a few things here. He feels untouchable because

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Speaker 1: of what he got away with on January sixth, and

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Speaker 1: he just he beat back this whole thing. Right, it

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Speaker 1: all worked. He shot somebody on Fifth Avenue. Basically he

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Speaker 1: did it, and he was more than forgiven. He was

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Speaker 1: re elected. So he seems untouchable, and we've seen him

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Speaker 1: he does all the only thing. He seems truly concerned

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Speaker 1: about his mortality, which I think creates the wrong focus

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Speaker 1: for him and puts him in a mindset of he's

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Speaker 1: just desperate that he's constantly thinking about a legacy that

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Speaker 1: he thinks he might be leaving sooner than he wants to.

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Speaker 1: So the point is elections alone may not be enough

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Speaker 1: in the short term. So we've been here before. Senate

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Speaker 1: Republicans choked after the second impeachment. We now know this.

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Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell now says the right things when it comes

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Speaker 1: to Greenland and what's happening to NATO. But he once

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Speaker 1: had the chance to change the trajectory of his party

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Speaker 1: and change, but instead he chose the path of least resistance.

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Speaker 1: I've said it before. I assume I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you know. He's tough as nails, Mitch McConnell, and I

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Speaker 1: say that as a compliment and being a congressional leader,

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Speaker 1: you've got to have the thickest mick skins, and he

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Speaker 1: has it. But if anything haunts him, I gotta think

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Speaker 1: that decision he made has got to haunt him. Maybe

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Speaker 1: it doesn't, and maybe that I'll let you guys decide

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Speaker 1: what that means, but I gotta think it does. And

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Speaker 1: that choice that he made explains a lot about how

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Speaker 1: we got here, and I don't want to dance around this.

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Speaker 1: Trump has made America more vulnerable than it's been in decades.

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Speaker 1: We are more isolated than at any points before World

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Speaker 1: War Two, and we don't fully grasp what that means, because,

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Speaker 1: let's be honest, none of us alive today have lived

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Speaker 1: through that kind of vulnerability. The Trump era has been

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Speaker 1: filled with near missed disasters of his own making, week

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Speaker 1: after week and month after month, right, and it is

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Speaker 1: created a bit of the chicken little mindset, Oh my god,

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Speaker 1: what is he doing now? This could be it, this

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Speaker 1: could be it, and we've just you know, we've gotten

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Speaker 1: lucky sometimes, but at some points luck runs out, and

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Speaker 1: the only real question is whether he can be restrained

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Speaker 1: by Congress, the courts, or the voters. Before our luck

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Speaker 1: runs out. And I will say this. The clock is ticking.

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Speaker 1: And I'll tell you this judging by what Mark Carney

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Speaker 1: has said, and I want to repeat a few things.

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Speaker 1: His speech in Davos in some way feels as if

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Speaker 1: it was clearly aimed directly at Donald Trump and the Americans.

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Speaker 1: And I really hope that John Thune reads this word

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Speaker 1: for word. Roger Wicker, these are sort of the the

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Speaker 1: Republicans that know what he's doing is bad, but are

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Speaker 1: afraid of speaking out. So Carney argued the following He

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Speaker 1: said that the global order hasn't just transitioned. It's broken

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Speaker 1: to quote him today, I will talk about a rupture

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Speaker 1: in the world order, the end of a pleasant fiction

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Speaker 1: and the beginning of a harsh reality where major geopolitical

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Speaker 1: powers operate with few limits and constraints. The old order

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Speaker 1: is not coming back, and we should not mourn it.

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Speaker 1: Nostalgia is not a strategy. So then he addressed the

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Speaker 1: weaponization of trade and regarding specifically regarding Greenland, where Trump

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Speaker 1: wants to punish Europe for not acceding to his wishes there,

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Speaker 1: and he said this, great powers have begun using economic

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Speaker 1: integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure is coercion,

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Speaker 1: supply changes vulnerabilities to be exploited. You cannot live within

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Speaker 1: the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes

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Speaker 1: the source of your subordination. So this gets it to

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Speaker 1: what I've been warning about. When we decide to be

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Speaker 1: isolationists in America first and raise up our barriers, what

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Speaker 1: do you think everybody else is going to do? And

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Speaker 1: that's essentially what Mark Carney is saying. We have no choice.

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Speaker 1: And then he talked about that there's a choice now

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Speaker 1: for what he called the middle powers. The middle powers

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Speaker 1: are basically everybody in the first world that isn't China,

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Speaker 1: Russia or the United States. Here's what he said. He

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Speaker 1: said middle powers must act together because if you are

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Speaker 1: not at the table, you are on the menu. When

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Speaker 1: we only negotiate bilaterally with one of these superpowers, we

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Speaker 1: negotiate from weakness. We accept what is offered. He goes,

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Speaker 1: this is not sovereignty, it is the performance of sovereignty

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Speaker 1: while accepting subordination. So then he outlined what he called

427
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 1: Canada's third path, and he basically said that Canada has

428
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 1: shifted towards strategic autonomy. Our closest ally north of the border.

429
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 1: Is basically said, we're tired of the United States treating

430
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 1: us like shit and we're going it alone and we're

431
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 1: going to have strategic autonomy. So how did he define that? One?

432
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 1: Trade diversification. So he's got new Canadian partnerships with or

433
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 1: without the Americans, with the EU, with China and with

434
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: katar and I promise you more are coming with the

435
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 1: Gulf States, with India, with you know, probably Brazil, maybe

436
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 1: even some African country. How about on defense, Canada is

437
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 1: a huge part of norrad. I mean, let's be honest,

438
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 1: the Canadian military was in some way seen as sort

439
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: of just part of the North American security system. Now

440
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 1: he's got to join what he calls the European Safe

441
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: Defense Procurement Arrangements, and he's doubling defense spending and they're

442
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 1: fast tracking their own investments in AI critical minerals and energy.

443
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 1: But out to scare the United States? Is that Carney

444
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,120
Speaker 1: basically saying, all right, we can't rely in the United States.

445
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 1: We're not you know, and normally the Canadian posture has been,

446
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 1: you know, they're the mause sleeping next to the elephant,

447
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:45,479
Speaker 1: and you know, they got to be careful the elephant

448
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: doesn't acidentally roll over on them. But now they're taking

449
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,160
Speaker 1: all of this, they're taking these threats more seriously. Whatever

450
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 1: he plans to do in Greenland, like I said, they're

451
00:27:55,000 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: having to increase their own defense spending. They're war gaming.

452
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:06,359
Speaker 1: What would happen if the United States invaded from the south. Again,

453
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 1: that sounds insane except for the rhetoric that our president

454
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 1: has been using. But he wants to develop and here's

455
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: the thing, it's going to leave. So he wants to

456
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 1: develop essentially what he calls bridges, right, you know, essentially

457
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,640
Speaker 1: a diversification of a trading block of these middle countries.

458
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 1: So he envisions a trading block that would essentially be

459
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 1: very similar to the Trans Specific Partnership TPP. Right. That

460
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,239
Speaker 1: the thing that Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump blew up

461
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: both on the left and the right during the twenty

462
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 1: sixteen campaign. It was a it was the idea was

463
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 1: to create essentially a check on China. It's going to

464
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 1: be led by the United States and Japan and India.

465
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 1: And it was you know, an all got sort of

466
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 1: you know, swept away by the fear of globalization. The

467
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 1: popular stuprising on the right, the popular stup rising on

468
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 1: the left, and then all of a sudden everybody backed

469
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 1: away from it, right, mainstream chamber of commerce Republicans backed

470
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 1: away from it, and mainstream sort of center left business

471
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 1: democrats like Hillary Clinton walked away from it, even though

472
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 1: she was the initial champion of this. So he wants

473
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 1: to do something similar and essentially create different sort of

474
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 1: middle power trading blocks so that if they collaborate together,

475
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: then they can be essentially on a more equal footing

476
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 1: when having to negotiate with a Russia, a China, or

477
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 1: the United States. But they see themselves as independent, right,

478
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 1: they see themselves as not having to They do not

479
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 1: want to be suckered into these binary relationships with these

480
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 1: bigger countries because the terms always suck for these middle powers.

481
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 1: And there was a time where the United the States

482
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 1: was not seen as somebody that was just going to

483
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 1: take advantage of any of these middle powers who agreed

484
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 1: to be part of our trading blocks. But we were

485
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 1: actually using this to create a rules based order. Now,

486
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 1: of course we have a president that's trying to get

487
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 1: rid of the rules based order. He also said something

488
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 1: else that was quite striking he said Canada is fully

489
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 1: committed to NATO's Article five, and he said it's unwavering.

490
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 1: And he said that Canada stands firmly with Denmark if

491
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 1: they get if they are a piece of land that

492
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 1: they control, think Greenland comes under military threat. This is

493
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 1: what Donald Trump has done. He has taken our allies

494
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 1: and they are actively looking for new defense, new trade

495
00:30:53,960 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 1: partners in order to confront an aggressive United States. I

496
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: understand a lot of people don't like this, don't like globalization,

497
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 1: think somehow that America is subsidizing other countries, whether it's

498
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 1: subsidizing by being the beat cop. I'm sorry that we

499
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: do such a poor job of teaching trade and economics

500
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 1: that people don't understand how much we've benefited. The fact

501
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 1: that Mississippi, which is considered supposedly one of our poorer

502
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: states in the Union, has a higher standard of living

503
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 1: than I think Japan, and I don't think many Americans

504
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 1: would would That might shock many Americans. The point is

505
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 1: we have thrived being at the top of the heat

506
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: of this rules based order of global trade. It has

507
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: benefited other countries, it has raised the standard of living

508
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 1: all over the world. But we've benefited a lot. We've

509
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: benefited in security, we've benefited financially, and now Donald Trump

510
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 1: is putting all of that at risk, either because he

511
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 1: believes in a failed economic model that was such a

512
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 1: failure that it cost the Republican Party twenty four years

513
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 1: of being in the wilderness and the presidency, and it's

514
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 1: certainly making us less secure. So it is a we'll

515
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 1: see what happens to Davos, but this is a very

516
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 1: fired up europe I you know, I think European leaders,

517
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 1: I think you you know, we'll see if Donald Trump

518
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 1: exploits this. There's definitely a divide among European leaders. Some

519
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: are trying to find ways. Is there a way to

520
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: work with him. I ran into a Republican member of

521
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 1: Congress during my travels over the last couple of days,

522
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 1: and I I, you know, who says, you know, I'm

523
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 1: doing my best to do this or this in Greenland

524
00:32:56,520 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 1: and goes you know, you know, I think there's you know,

525
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 1: he's got to be satisfied with a treaty that allows

526
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: for you know, to access to critical minerals and more

527
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 1: robust defense spending that we can do via NATO. It's

528
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 1: thinking too logically, and the problem we have right now

529
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 1: is Trump's not behaving very logically, and there's a group

530
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 1: of people around him that aren't interested in restraining him enough,

531
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 1: or he's got something else going on. Now. I know

532
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 1: there's a whole bunch of people out there with you know,

533
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: chit chat about the twenty fifth Amendment all this stuff.

534
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 1: I actually I view the twenty fifth Amendment as true incapacitation.

535
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 1: Think Woodrow Wilson in the stroke. Think James Garfield, you know,

536
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: essentially alive for about four months as he was dying

537
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 1: from the bullet wound. And it was an amendment that

538
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 1: was passed when there was when you know, after the

539
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 1: Kennedy assassination. You know, it's possible Kennedy could have been

540
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 1: kept alive but been a vegetable. Well what would we

541
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: have done in that situation? And so that you know,

542
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 1: that was the intent of the of the amendment. So

543
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 1: I'm not sure I would use it. And I think

544
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 1: using it because you think he's just erratic and all that.

545
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 1: I mean, this has been who he's run as. So

546
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: ultimately it has to come from the small deed. Democracy

547
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 1: has to come from the voters, has come from the

548
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 1: elected officials and there is only one way to restrain

549
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:36,839
Speaker 1: him that will keep the Republic that we like, and

550
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 1: that is for Congress to do its job, for the

551
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 1: for the for these guys to go back and realize

552
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 1: what the founders intended when it came to the executive branch,

553
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 1: and to do their job and to assert their authority here,

554
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 1: assert their authority on taxing Americans with these tariffs, and

555
00:34:55,400 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 1: assert their authority when it comes to military escapades. But

556
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 1: if they don't, then maybe the Republic is crumbling right

557
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 1: before our eyes. So on that dour negative note, I

558
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 1: did have a few other campaign things that I wanted

559
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 1: to get to. I'm gonna save those since I have

560
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,759
Speaker 1: another podcast on Thursday. I've got a few thoughts on

561
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: Josh Shapiro versus Kamala Harris. What do we got going

562
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:27,399
Speaker 1: on here? And is anybody gonna win this little No?

563
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:29,879
Speaker 1: She said this, no, he said this, and she all

564
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 1: of that. I kind of feeling everybody's losing their one two.

565
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 1: There's an interesting David pluff op ed in the New

566
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 1: York Times that didn't get the traction that I thought

567
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 1: it would, And I think part of it is that,

568
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 1: you know, Donald Trump sort of threatening the end of

569
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 1: the of the of George H. W's New World Order

570
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 1: is clearly more front and center than this. But essentially

571
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 1: he was saying that while the party may be in

572
00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 1: good shape for the midterms, it is nowhere near ready

573
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 1: to win the presidential in twenty eight And I think

574
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 1: it's an important op ed to deal with, but I

575
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 1: want to put a pin in that, take a break,

576
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 1: bring in get to the other conversation that I did

577
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 1: want to spark today with public education, and I want

578
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:21,840
Speaker 1: to hear from you guys on this of different ideas

579
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 1: and thoughts about sort of reimagining our public school system

580
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 1: because I think there's definitely needs some reimagining, definitely need

581
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 1: some remodeling for the twenty first century. And I don't

582
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 1: think we have near enough innovators and people running for

583
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:42,439
Speaker 1: office thinking about this enough. But you'll hear from Gena

584
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 1: and Osa, who is somebody who is trying to make

585
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 1: this a signature issue of a good natial campaign. So

586
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:53,240
Speaker 1: sneaking a break and when we come back Gena and Osa,

587
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 1: having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from

588
00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 1: personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away.

589
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 1: Way we didn't have any money. He didn't leave us

590
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 1: in the best shape. My mother single mother, now widow,

591
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 1: myself sixteen, trying to figure out how am I going

592
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:11,839
Speaker 1: to pay for college and lo and behold, my dad

593
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,280
Speaker 1: had one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot,

594
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 1: but it was important at the time, and it's why

595
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 1: I was able to go to college. Little did he

596
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 1: know how important that would be in that moment. Well

597
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 1: guess what. That's why I am here to tell you

598
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599
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600
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601
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Speaker 1: getting life insurance fast and easy, all designed to protect

602
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603
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604
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605
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Speaker 1: can get a quote in as little as ten minutes,

606
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607
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Speaker 1: your home. You can get up to three million dollars

608
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Speaker 1: in cover, and some policies start as low as two

609
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Speaker 1: dollars a day that would be billed monthly. As of

610
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:08,280
Speaker 1: March twenty twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number

611
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Speaker 1: one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect

612
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613
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614
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615
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616
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 1: insurance is something you should really think about it, especially

617
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 1: if you've got a growing family. It is Wednesday, Top

618
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 1: five Lists, Top top five, Top Testop. We've had some

619
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 1: action in the Senate. I think it's pretty clear that

620
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 1: you know, Democrats have now have met the minimum requirement

621
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 1: to put the Senate in play. And what do I

622
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 1: mean byd the minimum requirement? They've got five Republican seats

623
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 1: actually in play in legitimate ways. Right there's North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas,

624
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:18,279
Speaker 1: and Alaska. Those five all have legitimate, likely Democratic nominees.

625
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 1: In some cases, the primaries in Texas and Maine may

626
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 1: not matter who wins the primary. They're going to be

627
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 1: competitive due to sort of Republican problems there as well,

628
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 1: particularly in Texas. So Democrats need four right to flip

629
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 1: the Senate. So they've put five Republican health seats legitimately

630
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:38,240
Speaker 1: in play. I still think they need a couple of more.

631
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 1: You sort of need, you need more on the table

632
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:42,479
Speaker 1: if you want to get your four or five, because

633
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 1: you're not going to they say you're not going to

634
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 1: clean sweep in waveyears there we do see sweeps, so

635
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 1: that can happen, but you know they're clean sweepeers having

636
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:55,759
Speaker 1: to win some states that Donald Trump won by near

637
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,360
Speaker 1: double digits or close to double digits, like your Ohio's,

638
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 1: your Alaska's, your Texas, you know, uh, and and what

639
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 1: I just when I just laid out those five seats

640
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 1: that that Democrats appear to put in play, he carried

641
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 1: four of the five right North Carolina, uh, Ohio, Texas,

642
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 1: and Alaska. And he got one congressional district in Maine. Right.

643
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 1: So these are these aren't easy. I think they you know,

644
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:28,960
Speaker 1: they need to figure out between Florida, Mississippi, Kansas, Iowa,

645
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 1: those four. I think he's got it. They got to

646
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 1: get to two of those four legitimately, uh, legitimately in play.

647
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 1: Maybe they throw in a Kentucky on there. I'm a

648
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:41,279
Speaker 1: little skeptical on that, but but the more elon Musk

649
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:44,320
Speaker 1: plays around wherever Elon Musk is. He's not good politics.

650
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,239
Speaker 1: I think with swing voters and with independence and the

651
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 1: fact that he's dabbling in the Kentucky Senate race might

652
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 1: actually uh might actually uh boomerang a little bit because

653
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 1: of sort of I think the feeling, the growing feeling

654
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 1: that voters have about the power of these tech giants,

655
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:05,360
Speaker 1: and he in some ways, because he's so famous, he

656
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 1: is kind of the avatar for big tech, and I

657
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 1: don't think he's good politics. But overall, we do have

658
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 1: a bit of a shift in the in the Senate landscape.

659
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 1: So under that what are my top five most likely

660
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,760
Speaker 1: to flip? So number one hasn't changed. The North Carolina

661
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: Senate race, Roy Cooper remains the front runner. We've yet

662
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 1: to see a poll with him trailing. He's financially a juggernaut. Look,

663
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:31,959
Speaker 1: Michael Watley, that republic likely Republican nominee is certainly doing

664
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 1: pretty well on the fundraising front. But I still think

665
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 1: he's got an uphill battle. The only thing he's got

666
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 1: going form of the demographics of North Carolina, Roy Cooper's

667
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:45,320
Speaker 1: got almost everything else going for him. Maine, I am,

668
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 1: you know, and so North Caroline's on the one spot.

669
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:51,479
Speaker 1: I'm keeping Maine in the two spot of most likely

670
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:57,360
Speaker 1: to flip simply because I'm not convinced Susan Collins is

671
00:41:57,400 --> 00:42:01,320
Speaker 1: running for reelection. I still think. Look, she filing deadline

672
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 1: hasn't passed yet. She has never been this unpopular as

673
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 1: she is going into this race. Do I think John

674
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 1: Thune has basically protected her from a MAGA primary challenge?

675
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 1: I do. I think Trump at a minimum understands that

676
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 1: with Collins, which is why he feels carte blanche to

677
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 1: do to basically kill Bill Cassidy's political career. Now, which

678
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:29,279
Speaker 1: I think he just did. We'll see. I actually think

679
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 1: there's a path for Cassidy if he chooses to take it.

680
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 1: It's a harder path. It's the Lisa Murkowski path. It's independent,

681
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 1: and it's something our system desperately needs. I think he's

682
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 1: got the stomach and the spine to do it, but

683
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 1: it's his only path to re election. I think trying

684
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 1: to win inside a Republican primary in the state of

685
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 1: Louisiana is fools is a fools erran for him, and

686
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's the way I'd want to

687
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:58,840
Speaker 1: go down fighting I'd want to go to on fighting

688
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,239
Speaker 1: with the biggest electorate I could use, which when you

689
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 1: run as an independent, you can maximize who may support

690
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 1: SO number one North Carolina, and I think there's a

691
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: gap growing here. I think the more this political climate

692
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 1: deteriorates for Republicans generally, and the lower the President's job

693
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 1: rating goes, it feels like the North Carolina race just

694
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 1: gets harder and harder, especially now when you have the

695
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 1: retiring Senator Tom tillis growing increasingly willing to confront the

696
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:38,839
Speaker 1: president on what he's doing, particularly informed policy. I mean

697
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:42,840
Speaker 1: Tillo's has been leaning in on the concern he has

698
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 1: with the saber rattling over Greenland. So North Carolina number one,

699
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 1: number two main and again, I think the thing to

700
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 1: watch for in the next couple of weeks is signs,

701
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 1: you know, is there does she decide I'm not going

702
00:43:56,719 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 1: out losing, And I think there's plenty of politicians want

703
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 1: to do that. They don't want to go out losing.

704
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 1: She's been she's been in the Senate since ninety six,

705
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 1: So I it's my It's it's just my I've I've

706
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 1: seen this type of incumbent in the past with polling

707
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:19,840
Speaker 1: numbers like this in a political environment where your party

708
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:24,799
Speaker 1: political environment is not going to get any better. To me,

709
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 1: all of the hallmarks of an incumbent that says, I'm

710
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 1: not fighting this uphill battle. I'm not gonna do all

711
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 1: of the sleepless nights, all of the fundraisers, all the

712
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 1: begging for money, because that guy's already tanked my reelection.

713
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 1: And that guy I'm referring to is Donald Trump. So

714
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:46,879
Speaker 1: and if Maine opens up, Maine becomes number one main

715
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 1: one in North Carolina would flip if that happened, because

716
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 1: I promise you you'd more likely get a mega adjacent

717
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 1: maybe not fully mega, you know, but but but somebody

718
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 1: that's I don't know if you'd get a a Johnny

719
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 1: Sanunu type of candidate there, I think you'd end up

720
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 1: with something something a bit further to the right, maybe

721
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:12,600
Speaker 1: even a Paula Page jumps in. So North Carolina, Maine

722
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 1: in the number three slot. I'm still keeping Michigan. It

723
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 1: is the only Democratic health seat that I think continues

724
00:45:20,200 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 1: to be more problematic for Democrats as this election cycle

725
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 1: goes on, not less. And it's all because the primary

726
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:32,920
Speaker 1: is shaping up to be very ideologically divisive, potentially making

727
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:34,920
Speaker 1: the Israel issue, which I think is just going to

728
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 1: be a massive challenge to Democrats, right, I mean, look

729
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 1: at the commentary in and around Joshapiro. The fact is,

730
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: if every Jewish Democrat is going to be asked, you know,

731
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 1: you know, about whether they fought in the Israeli army

732
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 1: or with some sort of secret idea, I mean that

733
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 1: that that is, that is the definition of anti Semitism.

734
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 1: It's certainly the definition of prejudice. You know, it's it's

735
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:13,359
Speaker 1: so it is. I certainly take offense to it as

736
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 1: a Jewish American. So and I know I'm not alone

737
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 1: on that. This Michigan primary, I think is going to

738
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 1: get really messy on this issue where it ends up

739
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:25,800
Speaker 1: right and all that. And it's a three way primary,

740
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 1: so it is. And again the Republican nominee, yes, he's

741
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,000
Speaker 1: got certainly his share of things that he's got to

742
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 1: deal with, but he's not super Magan. He's not. He's

743
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 1: going to be hard to paint as Trump Maggott. Now,

744
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 1: he's certainly tried to get in keeping Trump's good graces

745
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 1: so that he that he can keep this nomination. But

746
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:49,719
Speaker 1: I continue to believe Michigan is that primary is a

747
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 1: is a potential nightmare for them that whoever comes out

748
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 1: of it. And remember they sort of have a very

749
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 1: sort of conventional, sort of establishment candidate and Haley Stevens

750
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:02,279
Speaker 1: sort of an out cider, but I would say sort

751
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 1: of a bit more mainstream liberal in Molly McMorrow. And

752
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:10,799
Speaker 1: then you have Abdul say Ed, who is I think

753
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 1: much more progressive, has the endorsement of Sanders and EOC

754
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 1: in that wing of the party. So it is it

755
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:20,840
Speaker 1: is likely that whoever comes out of that primary is

756
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 1: in trouble. And then of course the governor's race is

757
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 1: also a three way nightmare for Democrats too. So I

758
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 1: put I keep Michigan is the lone Democratic health seat

759
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:31,320
Speaker 1: that I think is in this I still keep in

760
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 1: this top five. Then my next two a seat that

761
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:37,880
Speaker 1: I've totally dropped by the way, which means is I

762
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 1: think Georgia. And you know, there are other handicappers that

763
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 1: like to use the lean and the likely and all

764
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 1: this stuff. I think we are we are, We've george

765
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 1: is no longer a toss up center race. I think

766
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 1: Georgia is now a you know, across the board, a

767
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 1: race where John Asoft's the favorite. We'll see if there's

768
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:58,879
Speaker 1: a Republican nominee that can that can somehow, somehow pull

769
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 1: this off. But I think it's a weak field in

770
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:05,840
Speaker 1: a tough political environment for Republicans in general, in a

771
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:10,040
Speaker 1: swing state where the incumbent has a massive financial head start.

772
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 1: So George is not on my top five at all anymore,

773
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:18,839
Speaker 1: completely out of race's most likely to flip parties. So

774
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:21,600
Speaker 1: number four on this list now I put Ohio. Now,

775
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 1: I know we have the news on Alaska and I'm

776
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 1: putting Alaska at five. So I have Ohio at four,

777
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:29,359
Speaker 1: most likely to flip in Alaska at five. Right now,

778
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 1: I still think Republicans are favored to win both races,

779
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 1: even in this current political environment. If you know, I

780
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:41,799
Speaker 1: do think everything is happening the exact way you would

781
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 1: want it to happen if you're Shared Brown and trying

782
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,840
Speaker 1: to win back your Senate seat. Right, it's a midterm environment.

783
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 1: It's a Republican in the White House, it is an

784
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 1: unpopular Republican. The economy is not great, right, Everything in

785
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 1: the Shared Brown wheelhouse is there. You're running against an

786
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:59,040
Speaker 1: appointed senator who you get to kind of run against

787
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 1: as an incumbent, though he's not the incumbent now. I

788
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:05,440
Speaker 1: think some of that, you know, I think that shared

789
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:07,439
Speaker 1: Brown the one thing he doesn't get to benefit from

790
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:10,359
Speaker 1: is being an out total outsider, right because he was

791
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 1: just there so but in general, everything else is sort

792
00:49:14,880 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 1: of going his way. He's raising a ton of money,

793
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 1: not quite Roy Cooper numbers, but pretty close, and he

794
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 1: obviously is he never really stopped running, right since he

795
00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 1: just lost in twenty four and that matters, right, It's like,

796
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 1: you know, it's like you don't want to take a break,

797
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:34,240
Speaker 1: you get rusty, like John Easan. Nunu's a bit rusty

798
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:36,359
Speaker 1: on the campaign trail, still a little bit, you know,

799
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:39,280
Speaker 1: you need more batting practice this case, right, Jared Brown's

800
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 1: just been running almost NonStop since twenty twelve, and that

801
00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 1: right that that can matter in a positive for him.

802
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:52,319
Speaker 1: And then debuting in the fifth slot, I think the

803
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:54,319
Speaker 1: first time that I've got Alaska in the top five.

804
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 1: This is to me the recruit of the cycle so far.

805
00:49:57,320 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 1: Mary Paltello the former member of Congress. She won thanks

806
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:04,680
Speaker 1: to rank choice voting that at large House seat back

807
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 1: when Sarah Palin was running for that seat. She had

808
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 1: the support of Lisa Murkowski at the time. I don't

809
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 1: think she's going to have the support of Lisa Murkowski

810
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 1: in this race. And like I said that, the Republican

811
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 1: she's challenging Dan Sullivan, he's no mega guy. He just

812
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 1: looks conservative when standing next to Lisa Murkowski. But you know,

813
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 1: if Paltello can can sort of hug that center lane

814
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:35,760
Speaker 1: and Alaska, it's it's being an Alaskan first, not a Democrat,

815
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:38,319
Speaker 1: not a Republican, but an Alaskan first. There's a there's

816
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 1: a lane there she has, she has an opportunity to

817
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 1: do it. She's gonna raise a ton of money, and

818
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 1: an Alaska you don't need a ton of money, and

819
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:48,800
Speaker 1: she's gonna have plenty of it. But so's Dan Sullivan.

820
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 1: But this is a real race now, and and it

821
00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 1: is it is It is literally to me, you know,

822
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 1: before getting her, I did not think Democrats had put

823
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 1: enough seats in play to legitimately say they had a

824
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 1: shot at winning the Senate. Getting her in this race,

825
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:10,799
Speaker 1: now the numbers are there, all right. They have to

826
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:14,840
Speaker 1: do a clean sweep. That can't you know, can't necessarily

827
00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:18,239
Speaker 1: lose Michigan in this scenario. But they've at least got

828
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 1: padding right. If they somehow swept the five competitive Republican

829
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:24,279
Speaker 1: health seats and then lost Michigan, they could still net four.

830
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:27,280
Speaker 1: That seems like an odd scenario if it would happen,

831
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 1: But the Michigan race is complicated enough where that's not

832
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 1: a crazy outcome on that front. So there it is

833
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 1: my top five right now. Five the five Senate seats

834
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:41,080
Speaker 1: most likely to flip in order. Number one, North Carolina

835
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 1: it's a Republican held seat. Democrat is the front runner.

836
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:46,319
Speaker 1: Number two is main a Republican held seat. I question

837
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,799
Speaker 1: whether Susan Collins is definitely running for re election. Number

838
00:51:48,840 --> 00:51:52,240
Speaker 1: three is Michigan a Democratic health seat open seat. Gary

839
00:51:52,239 --> 00:51:56,399
Speaker 1: Stevens's Gary seem Gary Peters if Miami on the brain.

840
00:51:56,440 --> 00:51:58,840
Speaker 1: Gary Stevens was an old offensive coordinator for the University

841
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:01,920
Speaker 1: of Miami back in twenty twenty four. Who back in

842
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:05,799
Speaker 1: nineteen eighty five and eighty six, And there's always been

843
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:08,680
Speaker 1: this great rumor talk about it, aside that Gary Stevens

844
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 1: once punched a Sports Illustrated reporter in the face, which

845
00:52:11,480 --> 00:52:13,799
Speaker 1: is why s I really did the cover that said

846
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 1: Miami had to drop football. That's at least always been

847
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 1: the Miami version of events. But I digress. Gary Peters,

848
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:22,640
Speaker 1: so Michigan sitting in the number three slot, the Loan

849
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:27,200
Speaker 1: Democratic health seat, that's in my top five. Then Ohio

850
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:31,600
Speaker 1: shared Brown John Houstad is the Republican incumbent there, he's

851
00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:36,920
Speaker 1: the appointed senator, and number five on the list the

852
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 1: Dan Sullivan seat with Democratic challenger Mary Piltello. So there

853
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 1: you have it. The political environment continues to get better

854
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:50,879
Speaker 1: for Democrats, or at least it's one of those where

855
00:52:50,920 --> 00:52:53,560
Speaker 1: I don't think the Democratic brands improved. It's just that

856
00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 1: Trump has made things that much worse for Republicans across

857
00:52:57,080 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 1: the board. So there's your top for them on Senate

858
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:03,720
Speaker 1: for the month of January.

859
00:53:03,760 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 2: I'll do my gubernatorial races next week. All right, let's

860
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:17,280
Speaker 2: do some questions.

861
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:24,919
Speaker 1: Ask Chuck. Get a little ask Chuck. Remember ask Chuck

862
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:29,759
Speaker 1: at lechucktodcast dot com. Best way to communicate with my

863
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:33,720
Speaker 1: team and myself. We'd love to hear from you, whether

864
00:53:33,760 --> 00:53:40,480
Speaker 1: it's on your ideas, on your ideas on reimagining our

865
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:44,759
Speaker 1: public education system for primary and secondary, as well as

866
00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 1: just any questions you might have. So with that, I'm

867
00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:52,920
Speaker 1: going to jump in here. First question comes from Connor,

868
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:58,480
Speaker 1: who says he's from Oklahoma City and Morocco. He may

869
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 1: be in Morocco at the point from Oklahoma City. Let

870
00:54:02,719 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 1: me read his question. He says, here, long overdue. Thank

871
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:07,160
Speaker 1: you for answering my last question and hoping this finds

872
00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:10,360
Speaker 1: you in a great mood after the Canes incredible season. Well,

873
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:12,960
Speaker 1: great mood, No, but I'm not in as bad of

874
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 1: a mood as I thought i'd be. If not, it

875
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 1: was a great year for the you and they've got

876
00:54:17,120 --> 00:54:19,120
Speaker 1: a great future ahead. I recently got into a debate

877
00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:21,360
Speaker 1: about what would be more dangerous the current Trump presidency

878
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:25,360
Speaker 1: or a potential JD. Vance presidency. I've had that debate myself.

879
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:29,240
Speaker 1: Connor most argued Trump's on predictability and cult like following

880
00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 1: make him uniquely dangerous. But I made the case that

881
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:34,399
Speaker 1: Vance's extremism, combined with coherence and focus, could be even

882
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:36,920
Speaker 1: more threatening. Curious to hear your take on this, especially Advance,

883
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:40,240
Speaker 1: or to sume off this mid term under chaotic circumstances,

884
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:52,479
Speaker 1: go Kaines. So three months ago, I would have said, Look,

885
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 1: my concern about JD. Vance is his relationship with Peter

886
00:54:55,600 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 1: Teal and I say this because Peter tele has a

887
00:54:58,719 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 1: worldview that is not small D democratic, right, He's part

888
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:06,759
Speaker 1: of this movement in Silicon Valley that you know, I

889
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 1: take believes that you know, there's certain people are you know,

890
00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:14,640
Speaker 1: you know that essentially wants a monarchy some form of it,

891
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:17,480
Speaker 1: you know, you and I would call it authoritarianism. But

892
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:20,960
Speaker 1: there is like this weird sort of and uh a,

893
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:24,520
Speaker 1: really that we know best type of mindset, however you

894
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:27,640
Speaker 1: want to look at it. And part of look this

895
00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:31,359
Speaker 1: is there's a lot of this in Silicon Valley that

896
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:33,960
Speaker 1: you know, we we you know where we know best,

897
00:55:34,239 --> 00:55:37,239
Speaker 1: you know where the future we have all the answers,

898
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:40,640
Speaker 1: We're inventing all the answers. We're going to cure all

899
00:55:40,640 --> 00:55:47,879
Speaker 1: these problems just with technological advances. So I just think

900
00:55:47,920 --> 00:55:51,680
Speaker 1: that relationship and the fact that Vance never really has

901
00:55:51,760 --> 00:55:55,440
Speaker 1: done anything for a living other than been supported by

902
00:55:55,480 --> 00:55:57,560
Speaker 1: him in one way or the other by Peter Teel.

903
00:55:58,120 --> 00:56:00,160
Speaker 1: So I do think that, you know, and I think

904
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:03,120
Speaker 1: we've always been as a country skeptical of any politician

905
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:09,000
Speaker 1: who sort of who sort of owes one person for everything, right,

906
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 1: and in that sense, he would, so I understand the

907
00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:18,800
Speaker 1: case you're making I think right now, though, what's happening

908
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:22,359
Speaker 1: with Donald Trump is this is it's incredibly destabilizing because

909
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:28,480
Speaker 1: one thing JD. Vance isn't is incoherent, and there is

910
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 1: there is a pragmatism to him, There is a reality.

911
00:56:33,239 --> 00:56:37,000
Speaker 1: I think he lives in reality. He doesn't seem to

912
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:40,160
Speaker 1: be as consumed with his with a with a with

913
00:56:40,239 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 1: a narcissism that Trump is that I think has made

914
00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:47,360
Speaker 1: things worse, right, his obsession with a peace prize and

915
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 1: all this stuff, and how it's like led to just

916
00:56:49,160 --> 00:56:53,600
Speaker 1: some just some deteriorating relationships that matter a lot more

917
00:56:53,600 --> 00:57:01,799
Speaker 1: for the United States. But I understand the I understand

918
00:57:01,880 --> 00:57:07,960
Speaker 1: the that this isn't a clean eighty twenty answer on

919
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:13,840
Speaker 1: that front. And I do think in a weird way,

920
00:57:14,160 --> 00:57:19,200
Speaker 1: I get your point there that Vance's would be a

921
00:57:19,240 --> 00:57:26,160
Speaker 1: lot smarter about building or rebuilding or you know, Donald

922
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:30,280
Speaker 1: Trump wants to knock things over. JD. Vance wants to

923
00:57:32,320 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 1: rebuild it in a different image, right, and so, but

924
00:57:38,080 --> 00:57:40,840
Speaker 1: I also believe he would articulate what he's doing, he

925
00:57:40,840 --> 00:57:44,200
Speaker 1: would try to make his case. I guess maybe I'm

926
00:57:44,240 --> 00:57:47,680
Speaker 1: being naive that I think that he I do think JD.

927
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:53,560
Speaker 1: Vance as president would want to at least try to

928
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:55,440
Speaker 1: make the case to the public with what he was

929
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:58,479
Speaker 1: doing and look for popular support for what he was doing.

930
00:58:00,040 --> 00:58:03,440
Speaker 1: It's not something Donald Trump wants to do. Might have

931
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:07,480
Speaker 1: given you an unsatisfactory answer there, but I get the debate.

932
00:58:08,480 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 1: Let's just say I've had it myself with a few people.

933
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:15,640
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Deb m Greensboro, Georgia. Hey, I've

934
00:58:15,640 --> 00:58:17,439
Speaker 1: followed you since your early meet the Press days. Didn't

935
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:19,439
Speaker 1: think anyone could fill Tim russell shoes, but you proved

936
00:58:19,440 --> 00:58:21,360
Speaker 1: me wrong. Well, I still don't think anybody can fill

937
00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:24,320
Speaker 1: Tim's shoes, but I appreciate the sentiment. I have probably

938
00:58:24,360 --> 00:58:26,400
Speaker 1: a naive question. If most Americans are center left or

939
00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:29,560
Speaker 1: center rived, why can't we elect more centrist presidents. It's

940
00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:31,520
Speaker 1: the primary system to blame. Also, I'm a sixty seven

941
00:58:31,600 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 1: year old woman and never misses the podcast, even the

942
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 1: college football bets. Do you know the demographics of your audience, Greensboro, Georgia.

943
00:58:39,200 --> 00:58:41,439
Speaker 1: We know a little bit, but we actually know less

944
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:44,720
Speaker 1: than we ever have before. Sometimes because part of it

945
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:48,240
Speaker 1: is you get some it's easier to see the demo.

946
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:54,400
Speaker 1: YouTube gives you demographics that are easier to sort of

947
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:58,479
Speaker 1: figure out a little harder on the audio only side

948
00:58:58,520 --> 00:59:05,080
Speaker 1: of things, but trust me, it's we're constantly doing. I

949
00:59:05,080 --> 00:59:09,280
Speaker 1: think on gender we're pretty evenly split. I think it's

950
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:11,680
Speaker 1: a you know, I think if you look at it

951
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:15,480
Speaker 1: through the prism of pro Trump anti Trump, it's probably

952
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:17,560
Speaker 1: not fifty to fifty on that. But I think I

953
00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 1: think I have a big chunk of centrists center right,

954
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 1: center left, because I could just tell from the anecdotes

955
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:26,919
Speaker 1: that I have. I don't think I have a lot

956
00:59:27,040 --> 00:59:32,760
Speaker 1: of super progressives in super maga. So on that front,

957
00:59:32,880 --> 00:59:36,880
Speaker 1: that's the sense I get. But your basic question, you know,

958
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 1: what's interesting is that our system are you know, I

959
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:45,800
Speaker 1: could argue that, going back to Eisenhower, that we always

960
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 1: ended up with as centrist of a president as the

961
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:52,840
Speaker 1: time would allow, right, as that era will allow. Right.

962
00:59:53,200 --> 00:59:58,880
Speaker 1: Eisenhower super centrist. You know. Kennedy compared to Nixon was

963
00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:02,960
Speaker 1: closer to the center, Johnson compared to Goldwater closer to

964
01:00:03,000 --> 01:00:08,360
Speaker 1: the center. Nixon, Humphrey. Nixon was certainly campaigning closer to

965
01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:12,400
Speaker 1: the center than Humphrey was, or at least there Nixon

966
01:00:12,480 --> 01:00:15,760
Speaker 1: McGovern Nixon sort of had the center. Lane Ford Carter

967
01:00:15,960 --> 01:00:18,800
Speaker 1: I think that was a case where uh, you know,

968
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:20,920
Speaker 1: we would say, now you would have said Ford was

969
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:23,880
Speaker 1: the center, was closer to the center, but the public

970
01:00:23,920 --> 01:00:28,680
Speaker 1: was ready to punish the Republicans for Nixon, Carter Reagan.

971
01:00:29,560 --> 01:00:33,360
Speaker 1: I think actually when you throw in form policy that

972
01:00:33,360 --> 01:00:35,840
Speaker 1: that Reagan looked like was closer to the center. So

973
01:00:36,440 --> 01:00:38,120
Speaker 1: my point is is that I always have felt as

974
01:00:38,200 --> 01:00:42,160
Speaker 1: if our elections kind of got us to where because

975
01:00:42,160 --> 01:00:45,000
Speaker 1: I think the center moves a little bit, you know,

976
01:00:45,080 --> 01:00:46,720
Speaker 1: I think we you know, sometimes we think it's all

977
01:00:46,760 --> 01:00:50,919
Speaker 1: you know, where, you know, everything the Overton window shifts right,

978
01:00:51,160 --> 01:00:54,440
Speaker 1: and so in that sense, what is considered the sort

979
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:57,400
Speaker 1: of the center of where America is in a given moment,

980
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:00,880
Speaker 1: And I think we've always found that. I might argue

981
01:01:00,880 --> 01:01:03,600
Speaker 1: that even the election of Donald Trump in sixteen was

982
01:01:03,640 --> 01:01:09,520
Speaker 1: sort of I think that's what some some Trump voters

983
01:01:09,520 --> 01:01:11,920
Speaker 1: in the middle would argue of what they're doing. And

984
01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:15,920
Speaker 1: I think certainly the election of Biden was seen as

985
01:01:16,080 --> 01:01:20,640
Speaker 1: he was closer to the center. And I think in

986
01:01:20,680 --> 01:01:23,040
Speaker 1: an own weird way, we the voters that didn't like

987
01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:26,360
Speaker 1: either Harris or Trump, saw Trump, at least on economics,

988
01:01:26,360 --> 01:01:30,720
Speaker 1: as closer to the center. So I think that's where

989
01:01:30,760 --> 01:01:33,160
Speaker 1: are where the where the swing voters try to pull

990
01:01:33,200 --> 01:01:38,120
Speaker 1: themselves to. But the primary system is definitely a blame

991
01:01:38,160 --> 01:01:41,520
Speaker 1: here of why we have and it's it's the it's

992
01:01:41,560 --> 01:01:45,000
Speaker 1: the you know, I think I don't think we should

993
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:50,080
Speaker 1: have partisan primaries. It is it is I think we

994
01:01:50,080 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 1: should all voters should be you know, having a say,

995
01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 1: I don't think we certainly shouldn't have taxpayer funded partisan primaries.

996
01:01:56,080 --> 01:01:58,240
Speaker 1: I think there's a violation of the equal protection clause.

997
01:01:58,280 --> 01:02:00,440
Speaker 1: The idea that if you live in a state that

998
01:02:00,560 --> 01:02:03,400
Speaker 1: is party registration and this state pays for the primary,

999
01:02:03,880 --> 01:02:06,560
Speaker 1: and that yet you cannot participate in that primary because

1000
01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:09,840
Speaker 1: you're not a member of this private organization called the

1001
01:02:09,840 --> 01:02:15,600
Speaker 1: Democrats or the Republicans. How the hell is that constitutional? Right? So,

1002
01:02:15,840 --> 01:02:18,320
Speaker 1: if you're a political party and you want to run

1003
01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 1: a primary for your members only, you pay for it,

1004
01:02:21,880 --> 01:02:24,600
Speaker 1: But the taxpayer's paying for it, all taxpayer. And that's

1005
01:02:24,600 --> 01:02:27,880
Speaker 1: where I think the constitutional amendment comes in, where any

1006
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:34,960
Speaker 1: state funded election has to be opened to all voters. Period.

1007
01:02:35,400 --> 01:02:37,960
Speaker 1: It works for mayors races, why can't it work for

1008
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:41,200
Speaker 1: senate races and governor's races and presidential primaries. But I

1009
01:02:41,200 --> 01:02:48,200
Speaker 1: think partisan primaries are the issue hard stop. Next question

1010
01:02:48,200 --> 01:02:52,080
Speaker 1: comes from Adam Overland Park, Kansas. Used to be this

1011
01:02:52,200 --> 01:02:54,480
Speaker 1: one of the swingiest areas in the country. I think

1012
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:56,960
Speaker 1: it's less swingy these days. I think it's an old

1013
01:02:56,960 --> 01:03:00,000
Speaker 1: purple district that is pretty anti Trump, even if it's

1014
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:02,480
Speaker 1: still pretty purple. Check. I really enjoyed listening to the

1015
01:03:02,520 --> 01:03:05,400
Speaker 1: podcast on a regular basis, and especially enjoy your CFP commentary.

1016
01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:08,000
Speaker 1: All right, sorry about your canes. That's okay. Question. We

1017
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:10,920
Speaker 1: know that military officers are forbidden from following illegal orders.

1018
01:03:11,440 --> 01:03:13,840
Speaker 1: Would in order to strike, invade, or otherwise take military

1019
01:03:13,880 --> 01:03:16,800
Speaker 1: action against a treaty ally such as Denmark, be considered

1020
01:03:16,840 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 1: an illegal order. The treaty, after all, was signed and

1021
01:03:20,320 --> 01:03:22,480
Speaker 1: ratified by the US Congress, just like any other law.

1022
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:27,240
Speaker 1: Thank you so, Adam. Here's the best look. A treaty

1023
01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:32,040
Speaker 1: ratified by the US Senate is binding US law, but

1024
01:03:32,080 --> 01:03:34,960
Speaker 1: it is not absolute. So under the Constitution, treaties are

1025
01:03:35,040 --> 01:03:39,360
Speaker 1: quote supreme law of the land. But a later statute

1026
01:03:39,400 --> 01:03:43,720
Speaker 1: passed by US Congress can override a treaty, and a

1027
01:03:43,840 --> 01:03:46,240
Speaker 1: constitutionally valid use of force can put the US in

1028
01:03:46,280 --> 01:03:49,280
Speaker 1: breach of a treaty without making the act itself illegal

1029
01:03:49,360 --> 01:03:52,439
Speaker 1: under US law. So, in other words, the US can

1030
01:03:52,560 --> 01:03:57,680
Speaker 1: violate a treaty lawfully under domestic law even if it

1031
01:03:57,760 --> 01:04:04,320
Speaker 1: violates international law. And it's important. Under the Uniform Code

1032
01:04:04,360 --> 01:04:09,360
Speaker 1: of Military Justice, service members must obey lawful orders. They

1033
01:04:09,480 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 1: must disobey manifestly unlawful orders. But in military order to

1034
01:04:16,720 --> 01:04:21,600
Speaker 1: attack another country, even a treaty ally is not manifestly

1035
01:04:21,880 --> 01:04:27,840
Speaker 1: unlawful on its face, so the treaty is contraining the

1036
01:04:27,920 --> 01:04:31,880
Speaker 1: state not necessarily individual soldier, and soldiers are not expected

1037
01:04:32,000 --> 01:04:37,760
Speaker 1: or required to adjudicate treaty legality. So unless the order

1038
01:04:37,840 --> 01:04:43,360
Speaker 1: itself is a war crime, a crime against humanity, targets civilians,

1039
01:04:44,160 --> 01:04:47,800
Speaker 1: or is in clear violation of the law of armed conflict,

1040
01:04:49,920 --> 01:04:55,640
Speaker 1: then the order is presumed lawful. So and so the

1041
01:04:55,760 --> 01:04:58,920
Speaker 1: question then becomes your follow up question should be, then

1042
01:04:58,960 --> 01:05:02,520
Speaker 1: who bears the legal resis bonsibility if a treaty is violated. Well,

1043
01:05:02,520 --> 01:05:06,560
Speaker 1: in this case, the responsibility alies with the President and

1044
01:05:06,760 --> 01:05:11,600
Speaker 1: Congress if Congress authorized or funded the action to violate

1045
01:05:11,640 --> 01:05:15,880
Speaker 1: the treaty. So under and then under international law, the

1046
01:05:15,960 --> 01:05:20,520
Speaker 1: US could breach international obligations, face some diplomatic consequences, and

1047
01:05:20,560 --> 01:05:25,200
Speaker 1: face international adjudication. Theoretically, of course, we don't really abide

1048
01:05:25,240 --> 01:05:30,200
Speaker 1: by theational the ICC, but the liability itself does not

1049
01:05:30,320 --> 01:05:36,480
Speaker 1: transfer to individual soldiers. So, in short, if Trump orders

1050
01:05:36,560 --> 01:05:40,720
Speaker 1: the invasion of Greenland, and yes, it's in violation of

1051
01:05:40,760 --> 01:05:44,200
Speaker 1: a treaty, but in theory wouldn't necessarily on its face

1052
01:05:45,240 --> 01:05:50,160
Speaker 1: be seen as an illegal order. Now, bombing a civilian

1053
01:05:50,400 --> 01:05:54,240
Speaker 1: boat speeding off the coast of Venezuela is a different story,

1054
01:05:54,280 --> 01:06:01,600
Speaker 1: because that is a violation of of of the law

1055
01:06:01,640 --> 01:06:07,400
Speaker 1: of arm conflict. So that is the distinction distinction there.

1056
01:06:11,800 --> 01:06:13,800
Speaker 1: I was about to say, fun question. That wasn't a

1057
01:06:13,840 --> 01:06:16,240
Speaker 1: fun question, Adam, but an important question, and I'm glad

1058
01:06:16,280 --> 01:06:19,680
Speaker 1: you made me research it, so thank you. Last question

1059
01:06:19,760 --> 01:06:22,960
Speaker 1: comes from Max w Alexander Virgini says, hey, Chuck, you

1060
01:06:23,040 --> 01:06:25,520
Speaker 1: nailed it. Warning about prediction markets. Just as someone made

1061
01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:28,400
Speaker 1: four hundred thousand dollars on poly market betting Maduro would

1062
01:06:28,440 --> 01:06:30,880
Speaker 1: be ousted before the US took action in Venezuela if

1063
01:06:30,880 --> 01:06:34,120
Speaker 1: that person had insider knowledge of Operation Absolute Resolve, How

1064
01:06:34,120 --> 01:06:39,400
Speaker 1: should the country respond? What would be a fair penalty? Well,

1065
01:06:39,440 --> 01:06:41,600
Speaker 1: it's insider trading, it seems to be. It should be

1066
01:06:41,640 --> 01:06:45,560
Speaker 1: prosecuted the same way we prosecute insider trading with the SEC.

1067
01:06:45,680 --> 01:06:48,120
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's it's a criminal you know,

1068
01:06:48,160 --> 01:06:50,959
Speaker 1: there's a there's criminal penalties to this. I just don't

1069
01:06:50,960 --> 01:06:53,920
Speaker 1: think we've figured out how to adjudicate these prediction markets yet.

1070
01:06:54,200 --> 01:06:56,720
Speaker 1: And then if you I'm not sure polymarket is still

1071
01:06:56,760 --> 01:06:59,600
Speaker 1: even considered something that can be regulated in the United States.

1072
01:07:00,400 --> 01:07:03,360
Speaker 1: Pobly market has yet. I thought it wasn't yet legal

1073
01:07:03,440 --> 01:07:07,680
Speaker 1: in the US though Klshi is. But this it is.

1074
01:07:07,760 --> 01:07:10,720
Speaker 1: You know, once again, technology is moving faster than Congress

1075
01:07:10,840 --> 01:07:16,600
Speaker 1: can create regulation, and this is one of those areas.

1076
01:07:17,280 --> 01:07:20,960
Speaker 1: We've got to do something here. But think about all

1077
01:07:21,000 --> 01:07:23,880
Speaker 1: of the challenges we have, this is one of those

1078
01:07:23,960 --> 01:07:28,520
Speaker 1: that as concerning as this is, this is like seventy

1079
01:07:28,560 --> 01:07:31,160
Speaker 1: fifth on the list of things that Congress ought to

1080
01:07:31,200 --> 01:07:34,040
Speaker 1: be focused on right now. And if you're they're focused

1081
01:07:34,040 --> 01:07:36,240
Speaker 1: on this and not on what the hell's happening in Greenland,

1082
01:07:36,320 --> 01:07:38,280
Speaker 1: I'm like, what the hell are you focused on? No offense,

1083
01:07:38,320 --> 01:07:41,840
Speaker 1: I think it's an important question, but I think there

1084
01:07:41,840 --> 01:07:44,080
Speaker 1: are other priorities that they've got to get at. First.

1085
01:07:52,160 --> 01:07:54,560
Speaker 1: Let me give you my final college football report. So look,

1086
01:07:55,080 --> 01:08:01,720
Speaker 1: I am I'm not as upset that as I thought

1087
01:08:01,720 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 1: I would be about the Hurricanes losing, because at the

1088
01:08:04,960 --> 01:08:07,440
Speaker 1: end of the day, they had every chance to win

1089
01:08:07,440 --> 01:08:11,720
Speaker 1: that game. I would argue Indiana made one less mistake

1090
01:08:13,000 --> 01:08:16,160
Speaker 1: and they made one more play. Miami made one more

1091
01:08:16,200 --> 01:08:19,040
Speaker 1: mistake and didn't make one more play. Right there were

1092
01:08:20,200 --> 01:08:23,240
Speaker 1: the block punt and the missfield goal are ten points

1093
01:08:23,320 --> 01:08:29,639
Speaker 1: right there. Right there's there's ten points. You could easily

1094
01:08:30,439 --> 01:08:33,920
Speaker 1: say Miami should have won that game twenty three, twenty

1095
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:37,840
Speaker 1: four to twenty one, or twenty four to twenty, which

1096
01:08:37,960 --> 01:08:39,840
Speaker 1: was my if I think that was the prediction I

1097
01:08:39,880 --> 01:08:41,439
Speaker 1: made that if Miami won had been twenty four to

1098
01:08:41,439 --> 01:08:45,080
Speaker 1: twenty had they not had the block punt, Now, who knows,

1099
01:08:45,120 --> 01:08:47,880
Speaker 1: maybe they get maybe maybe. The other thing is Miami

1100
01:08:47,960 --> 01:08:52,280
Speaker 1: had two shots at stopping Indiana on fourth downs inside

1101
01:08:53,200 --> 01:08:56,719
Speaker 1: that red zone, and you know, look the Mendoz Here's

1102
01:08:56,720 --> 01:08:59,439
Speaker 1: what I'll say, I think Carson Beck played a really

1103
01:08:59,439 --> 01:09:03,840
Speaker 1: good game. Fernando Mendoza told us what showed us why

1104
01:09:03,840 --> 01:09:07,679
Speaker 1: he was the Heisman Trophy winner, that gutsy fourth down call,

1105
01:09:08,240 --> 01:09:11,160
Speaker 1: which we've now since learned. According to the Miami defensive coordinator,

1106
01:09:11,360 --> 01:09:14,000
Speaker 1: they knew that was coming and it wasn't, and they

1107
01:09:14,000 --> 01:09:16,840
Speaker 1: were trying to communicate it to everybody, and the linebacker

1108
01:09:16,880 --> 01:09:19,120
Speaker 1: got it to half the team, not the whole defense.

1109
01:09:19,120 --> 01:09:21,840
Speaker 1: There just you know that happens. You think you've read

1110
01:09:21,880 --> 01:09:24,559
Speaker 1: the play right, but you didn't communicate it in time.

1111
01:09:24,680 --> 01:09:26,519
Speaker 1: You know, when you see these guys holding up signs

1112
01:09:26,520 --> 01:09:29,200
Speaker 1: doing all this, that's what they're They're like, Hey, we

1113
01:09:29,240 --> 01:09:31,680
Speaker 1: think it's this. You know, prepare for this, prepare for

1114
01:09:32,120 --> 01:09:34,960
Speaker 1: prepare for that. And the other sort of disconcerting thing

1115
01:09:35,040 --> 01:09:38,080
Speaker 1: is that on the Carson Beck interception, I think the

1116
01:09:38,120 --> 01:09:41,839
Speaker 1: Indiana DC admitted that we had caught them in a

1117
01:09:42,160 --> 01:09:45,679
Speaker 1: bad spot, and Frankly had just had marry and turned

1118
01:09:45,680 --> 01:09:48,160
Speaker 1: around and seen that the ball was coming, he likely

1119
01:09:48,200 --> 01:09:49,920
Speaker 1: would have made a play on the ball that might

1120
01:09:49,960 --> 01:09:52,760
Speaker 1: have that might have might have pulled them off there.

1121
01:09:52,800 --> 01:09:56,679
Speaker 1: But there was another part I I I was concerned

1122
01:09:56,720 --> 01:09:59,760
Speaker 1: that Beck played that last forty five seconds with a concussion.

1123
01:10:00,520 --> 01:10:02,880
Speaker 1: He took a hit, the late hit. And this was

1124
01:10:02,920 --> 01:10:08,400
Speaker 1: the other thing, right Indiana, Indiana gave Miami a chance.

1125
01:10:08,439 --> 01:10:10,080
Speaker 1: I didn't know, it didn't look like it. Miami was

1126
01:10:10,080 --> 01:10:11,880
Speaker 1: going to get the ball back, and then Indiana did

1127
01:10:11,920 --> 01:10:15,120
Speaker 1: something that they hadn't done all year. They screwed, They

1128
01:10:15,520 --> 01:10:18,519
Speaker 1: screwed up. They gave Miami a chance. First, the false

1129
01:10:18,520 --> 01:10:20,760
Speaker 1: start moves them from a second and one to a

1130
01:10:20,800 --> 01:10:22,960
Speaker 1: second and six or I think it was a third

1131
01:10:23,000 --> 01:10:24,519
Speaker 1: and one to a third and six, which of course

1132
01:10:24,640 --> 01:10:27,639
Speaker 1: allowed Miami to stop them. There call another time out,

1133
01:10:27,760 --> 01:10:31,160
Speaker 1: and then when Signetti successfully goes for it on fourth

1134
01:10:31,200 --> 01:10:35,559
Speaker 1: down twice to avoid giving Miami the ball, he decides

1135
01:10:35,640 --> 01:10:37,559
Speaker 1: to kick a field goal and give the ball back

1136
01:10:37,600 --> 01:10:40,639
Speaker 1: to Miami. I can't believe he did that. I can't

1137
01:10:40,640 --> 01:10:42,120
Speaker 1: believe he didn't go for it again to try to

1138
01:10:42,200 --> 01:10:44,400
Speaker 1: end the game. Yes, you'd have been giving Miami the

1139
01:10:44,400 --> 01:10:47,200
Speaker 1: ball back maybe at the ten they'd have had to

1140
01:10:47,280 --> 01:10:51,040
Speaker 1: drive sixty yards for a game tying field goal, But

1141
01:10:51,120 --> 01:10:52,720
Speaker 1: you were actually not going to put the game at risk.

1142
01:10:52,760 --> 01:10:55,120
Speaker 1: So I actually think this is a case where, you know,

1143
01:10:55,240 --> 01:10:57,800
Speaker 1: Mario christ boul was getting all sorts of grief about

1144
01:10:57,800 --> 01:11:02,800
Speaker 1: how he clocked managed Signetti screwed up there in the

1145
01:11:02,840 --> 01:11:07,200
Speaker 1: fourth quarter too many used up as timeouts and then

1146
01:11:07,600 --> 01:11:12,040
Speaker 1: gave Miami the ball back. I thought we were going

1147
01:11:12,120 --> 01:11:15,360
Speaker 1: to make them pay for that, and we almost did. So.

1148
01:11:15,600 --> 01:11:21,240
Speaker 1: Look I'm not this is I've been to five national

1149
01:11:21,280 --> 01:11:25,799
Speaker 1: title games involving Miami. I've been to six total national

1150
01:11:25,800 --> 01:11:28,360
Speaker 1: title games. I happened to be at the Notre Dame

1151
01:11:28,439 --> 01:11:31,719
Speaker 1: Colorado one back in nineteen ninety, which was the ninety

1152
01:11:31,760 --> 01:11:35,280
Speaker 1: one Orange Bowl, when Colorado got a split national title

1153
01:11:35,400 --> 01:11:39,519
Speaker 1: with Notre Dame or not Notre Dame Georgia Tech excuse me,

1154
01:11:41,160 --> 01:11:45,360
Speaker 1: and so like. I was just angry and devastated after

1155
01:11:45,439 --> 01:11:51,080
Speaker 1: the Ohio state national title. Sorry, I don't accept that one.

1156
01:11:51,200 --> 01:11:53,720
Speaker 1: I'm not over that one. Some scars never heal right,

1157
01:11:56,160 --> 01:12:00,679
Speaker 1: but this one, Miami had a chance. I just played

1158
01:12:01,040 --> 01:12:05,040
Speaker 1: a little bit better, But I was I was sort

1159
01:12:05,080 --> 01:12:07,599
Speaker 1: of encouraged by the fact that the game played out

1160
01:12:07,600 --> 01:12:09,400
Speaker 1: exactly as I thought I would. I knew we were

1161
01:12:09,400 --> 01:12:11,680
Speaker 1: the best team Indiana faced all year, and I think

1162
01:12:11,720 --> 01:12:14,920
Speaker 1: we proved it, and we made Indiana look worse than

1163
01:12:14,960 --> 01:12:17,280
Speaker 1: any other team made him look, except for maybe in

1164
01:12:17,320 --> 01:12:22,439
Speaker 1: the bad weather that Iowa pulled off there. I really,

1165
01:12:23,200 --> 01:12:27,120
Speaker 1: I will tell you this. I was not all bought

1166
01:12:27,160 --> 01:12:31,240
Speaker 1: into Fernando Mendoza. I am. Now, that is one tough

1167
01:12:31,240 --> 01:12:34,280
Speaker 1: home bray. I'd like to say soob, but he would

1168
01:12:34,280 --> 01:12:36,759
Speaker 1: never use those that language. Although I guess he cursed

1169
01:12:36,760 --> 01:12:40,679
Speaker 1: for the first time on TV the other night. I'm

1170
01:12:40,720 --> 01:12:43,000
Speaker 1: all in a Mendoza man, I'm written for him. And

1171
01:12:43,040 --> 01:12:47,600
Speaker 1: if you're a Raider fan, you should you put it

1172
01:12:47,640 --> 01:12:51,800
Speaker 1: this way. Imagine if Tibo had had the skills to

1173
01:12:51,880 --> 01:12:55,439
Speaker 1: be a great NFL quarterback. And I say this, Tibo

1174
01:12:55,520 --> 01:12:58,040
Speaker 1: had some incredible skills, but he was not a prototypical

1175
01:12:58,080 --> 01:13:00,799
Speaker 1: pro style quarterback. Couldn't really find it system that worked,

1176
01:13:01,080 --> 01:13:05,479
Speaker 1: you know, he was he was he really you know,

1177
01:13:06,520 --> 01:13:09,160
Speaker 1: the way New Orleans used to use Taysom Hill, you know,

1178
01:13:09,360 --> 01:13:11,880
Speaker 1: that ought to have been what Tebow's you know, but

1179
01:13:12,000 --> 01:13:14,760
Speaker 1: he never could accept the idea of being sort of

1180
01:13:15,000 --> 01:13:20,960
Speaker 1: tight in slash, sort of you know, multi faceted player.

1181
01:13:23,600 --> 01:13:28,840
Speaker 1: Mendoza feels like what Tebow would have been if he'd

1182
01:13:28,880 --> 01:13:31,880
Speaker 1: had the ability to be also a drop back past. Look,

1183
01:13:31,880 --> 01:13:35,320
Speaker 1: he made some incredible throws on third downs. Miami couldn't

1184
01:13:35,360 --> 01:13:37,519
Speaker 1: get off the field a couple of times simply because

1185
01:13:37,520 --> 01:13:40,680
Speaker 1: a front end of Mendoza. So I'm all in, I'm impressed,

1186
01:13:41,200 --> 01:13:44,719
Speaker 1: I get it, I'm you know, and now I'm paranoid

1187
01:13:44,800 --> 01:13:48,439
Speaker 1: that his little brother is going to Georgia Tech. Georgia

1188
01:13:48,479 --> 01:13:50,840
Speaker 1: Tech is already a thorn in Miami's side. I can

1189
01:13:51,040 --> 01:13:54,799
Speaker 1: just picture Mendoza, you know, give it us, the younger

1190
01:13:54,880 --> 01:13:58,519
Speaker 1: Mendoza who's not as big as his brother but plays

1191
01:13:58,520 --> 01:14:00,760
Speaker 1: a slightly different style of course, or back just given

1192
01:14:00,880 --> 01:14:04,000
Speaker 1: us fits because that's what Georgia Tech does, right. Every

1193
01:14:04,040 --> 01:14:06,120
Speaker 1: college football team, no how great you are, always has

1194
01:14:06,160 --> 01:14:08,080
Speaker 1: that team that gives you a tough game, no matter

1195
01:14:08,080 --> 01:14:09,960
Speaker 1: how good or bad they are. Georgia Tech is one

1196
01:14:09,960 --> 01:14:13,120
Speaker 1: of those teams when it comes from Miami. But I'm

1197
01:14:13,120 --> 01:14:16,200
Speaker 1: pretty convinced that this will fuel Miami, that this will

1198
01:14:16,240 --> 01:14:18,600
Speaker 1: be similar to what you know, after Miami lost to

1199
01:14:18,640 --> 01:14:22,400
Speaker 1: Penn State in eighty six, the next year's team went undefeated,

1200
01:14:22,520 --> 01:14:24,559
Speaker 1: even though they had had to replace their quarterback with

1201
01:14:24,640 --> 01:14:27,880
Speaker 1: Vinnie Testaverdi and eighty six. We got Steve Walsh in

1202
01:14:27,920 --> 01:14:31,120
Speaker 1: eighty seven, and people were skeptical of Walsh. Well there

1203
01:14:31,160 --> 01:14:35,599
Speaker 1: was you know, that team was on a mission. Mario

1204
01:14:35,680 --> 01:14:38,080
Speaker 1: Cristobal was a part of that recruiting class. I think

1205
01:14:38,120 --> 01:14:40,040
Speaker 1: that came in right after the eighty seven team. So

1206
01:14:40,920 --> 01:14:43,120
Speaker 1: there's something about this that feels like this is the

1207
01:14:43,120 --> 01:14:46,000
Speaker 1: beginning of something. This wasn't just a This wasn't a

1208
01:14:47,840 --> 01:14:51,400
Speaker 1: fleeting moment. It's not a fleeting moment for Nianna either.

1209
01:14:51,960 --> 01:14:56,960
Speaker 1: A few observations about I'm very concerned that we are

1210
01:14:57,000 --> 01:15:01,320
Speaker 1: just pricing out people from experiences that used to not

1211
01:15:01,520 --> 01:15:04,240
Speaker 1: cost an arm and a leg to have, whether it's

1212
01:15:05,120 --> 01:15:07,599
Speaker 1: incredible football games like the one I got to witness,

1213
01:15:08,400 --> 01:15:10,719
Speaker 1: or even something as simple as going to Disney World.

1214
01:15:11,439 --> 01:15:15,639
Speaker 1: The amount of money now, if you want to have, oh,

1215
01:15:15,680 --> 01:15:17,200
Speaker 1: if you want to have good seats, you got to

1216
01:15:17,240 --> 01:15:20,920
Speaker 1: have like tech ro money. If you want to have

1217
01:15:21,000 --> 01:15:22,599
Speaker 1: no you know, if you want to have shorter lines

1218
01:15:22,600 --> 01:15:25,040
Speaker 1: at Disney, You've got to pay for more of a

1219
01:15:25,120 --> 01:15:27,920
Speaker 1: velvet rope. You know. It gets into the same thing

1220
01:15:28,200 --> 01:15:30,960
Speaker 1: I sort of mentioned the other day that even even

1221
01:15:31,000 --> 01:15:35,200
Speaker 1: Blackjack has income inequality, where if you want to play

1222
01:15:35,560 --> 01:15:38,280
Speaker 1: for lesser stakes you get worse odds, if you want

1223
01:15:38,280 --> 01:15:41,080
Speaker 1: to play for higher stakes, you get better odds. It is,

1224
01:15:41,640 --> 01:15:45,400
Speaker 1: it is everything is about, you know, creating more velvet

1225
01:15:45,479 --> 01:15:48,960
Speaker 1: ropes to sell more insider access. And the irony was

1226
01:15:49,000 --> 01:15:52,960
Speaker 1: the most expensive seats at hard Rock Stadium. There's these

1227
01:15:53,040 --> 01:15:56,160
Speaker 1: comfy chairs on the fifty yard line. There are these

1228
01:15:56,240 --> 01:15:58,960
Speaker 1: wide seats, literally soft kind of recliner seats. They were

1229
01:15:58,960 --> 01:16:02,960
Speaker 1: going for twenty to forty thousand dollars a piece. That

1230
01:16:03,080 --> 01:16:06,920
Speaker 1: was the only seats that looked empty. I was sitting

1231
01:16:06,960 --> 01:16:09,200
Speaker 1: on the opposite side about the ten yard line in

1232
01:16:09,280 --> 01:16:12,240
Speaker 1: a Miami section, in a section, and I will confess

1233
01:16:12,280 --> 01:16:16,080
Speaker 1: of Miami season ticket holders that were on the upper

1234
01:16:16,160 --> 01:16:20,880
Speaker 1: end of being Miami season ticket holders, Okay, but we

1235
01:16:20,880 --> 01:16:23,160
Speaker 1: were not. Yeah, we were priced out of any of those.

1236
01:16:23,200 --> 01:16:26,840
Speaker 1: And that's I'm not complaining, all right. I enjoyed it.

1237
01:16:26,880 --> 01:16:28,920
Speaker 1: I was able to get there. I didn't have to

1238
01:16:28,920 --> 01:16:31,839
Speaker 1: pay four thousand dollars on the secondary market for tickets

1239
01:16:31,920 --> 01:16:39,720
Speaker 1: or anything like that. But you know, how, the entire

1240
01:16:39,760 --> 01:16:42,800
Speaker 1: how we're just doing these things, we're we're sort of

1241
01:16:42,840 --> 01:16:50,120
Speaker 1: embedding inequality all over the place. And it's I'm not

1242
01:16:50,120 --> 01:16:52,760
Speaker 1: trying to sound like some socialists here, but it's like,

1243
01:16:53,360 --> 01:16:55,360
Speaker 1: I think we need we've gotten out of hand. I

1244
01:16:55,360 --> 01:16:57,920
Speaker 1: think we can charge up the you know what for

1245
01:16:58,000 --> 01:17:02,720
Speaker 1: these suites, but the stands themselves can't. You you know,

1246
01:17:02,760 --> 01:17:06,439
Speaker 1: I understand that they're trying to get every dollar they

1247
01:17:06,479 --> 01:17:09,280
Speaker 1: can off of how much money has been paid for

1248
01:17:09,320 --> 01:17:11,360
Speaker 1: the rights to this playoff and all this stuff, But

1249
01:17:13,479 --> 01:17:17,240
Speaker 1: I don't know five hundred dollars for parking seemed absurd.

1250
01:17:17,800 --> 01:17:20,559
Speaker 1: Some of us may have paid for it because of Frankly,

1251
01:17:21,040 --> 01:17:23,320
Speaker 1: it was that or two hundred and fifty dollars one

1252
01:17:23,360 --> 01:17:26,479
Speaker 1: way Uber, you know, or one hundred dollars Cabra. Right.

1253
01:17:26,640 --> 01:17:28,519
Speaker 1: There was no cheap way to go. There was some

1254
01:17:28,560 --> 01:17:31,040
Speaker 1: shuttles if you wanted to sign up for the hard

1255
01:17:31,080 --> 01:17:37,360
Speaker 1: rock casino and things like that. But I just in general,

1256
01:17:38,240 --> 01:17:41,000
Speaker 1: I do think we need to, you know, the stewards

1257
01:17:40,760 --> 01:17:44,360
Speaker 1: of these of these big things, whether you whether you're

1258
01:17:44,439 --> 01:17:47,160
Speaker 1: Bob Eiger and your run Disney World. You know, can

1259
01:17:47,200 --> 01:17:53,120
Speaker 1: a middle class family go and enjoy themselves and not

1260
01:17:53,320 --> 01:17:55,960
Speaker 1: feel like or not get reminded? Yeah you can go,

1261
01:17:56,360 --> 01:17:58,200
Speaker 1: but we're going to show off all the places you

1262
01:17:58,240 --> 01:18:03,160
Speaker 1: can't afford to be. It kind of felt that way

1263
01:18:03,200 --> 01:18:05,080
Speaker 1: at this football game. And again, I know this is

1264
01:18:05,120 --> 01:18:07,400
Speaker 1: the national time. We've already done this to the super Bowl,

1265
01:18:07,439 --> 01:18:11,120
Speaker 1: where the average NFL fan can't get there. That's the

1266
01:18:11,200 --> 01:18:13,200
Speaker 1: other thing. They don't even make tickets available. Everything is

1267
01:18:13,200 --> 01:18:16,240
Speaker 1: for these corporate and political guys. Trust me, I saw

1268
01:18:16,280 --> 01:18:20,320
Speaker 1: my shriff of politicians, saw the Santises, saw Marco Rubios,

1269
01:18:20,600 --> 01:18:27,200
Speaker 1: Rick Scott saw. I did not see the president in person.

1270
01:18:27,200 --> 01:18:30,519
Speaker 1: But s all these other folks, we're all milling about,

1271
01:18:30,800 --> 01:18:34,240
Speaker 1: right except for there security details everywhere and stuff. But

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01:18:34,360 --> 01:18:38,679
Speaker 1: it was that's just the one. We've got to sort

1273
01:18:38,680 --> 01:18:43,080
Speaker 1: of have some I just you know, it's almost like

1274
01:18:43,120 --> 01:18:45,160
Speaker 1: you need It's like we need an HR for sort

1275
01:18:45,200 --> 01:18:49,040
Speaker 1: of a reality check, you know, because guess what, none

1276
01:18:49,040 --> 01:18:53,519
Speaker 1: of this has value. If working people aren't interested in

1277
01:18:53,880 --> 01:18:57,280
Speaker 1: the product anymore, and if you make it so hard

1278
01:18:57,439 --> 01:19:02,800
Speaker 1: for working people to to do this once a year

1279
01:19:03,000 --> 01:19:06,240
Speaker 1: whatever it is, eventually they're going to lose interest and

1280
01:19:06,280 --> 01:19:11,439
Speaker 1: then the entire product gets devalued. So as we keep

1281
01:19:11,560 --> 01:19:14,160
Speaker 1: escalating to find more ways to make money off the

1282
01:19:14,200 --> 01:19:20,559
Speaker 1: super rich, be careful suddenly pricing out and getting rid

1283
01:19:20,560 --> 01:19:26,400
Speaker 1: of an entire class of people who arguably are the

1284
01:19:26,439 --> 01:19:30,400
Speaker 1: backbone of the popularity of a place like Disney World

1285
01:19:30,840 --> 01:19:36,720
Speaker 1: or a sport like college football. Good news is this

1286
01:19:36,760 --> 01:19:39,600
Speaker 1: is my last college football report until spring practice. No no, no,

1287
01:19:39,600 --> 01:19:43,479
Speaker 1: I'm just kidding until August unless the sport itself goes

1288
01:19:43,520 --> 01:19:46,120
Speaker 1: through yet another overhaul and there's some stuff there. I

1289
01:19:46,160 --> 01:19:48,120
Speaker 1: am going to transition to baseball. I got a lot

1290
01:19:48,160 --> 01:19:50,960
Speaker 1: of feelings about the new Baseball Hall of famers. I'm

1291
01:19:50,960 --> 01:19:53,360
Speaker 1: going to save that for my next sports report on

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01:19:53,439 --> 01:19:56,320
Speaker 1: the next podcast with that I'll see in twenty four hours.