1 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 2: This is your weekly Washington Policy Pulse, the Balance of 3 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 2: Power podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior 4 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 2: policy analyst and friend of the show, Nathan Dean shares 5 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 2: his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capital. 6 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from 7 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 2: our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's 8 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 2: Nathan Dean. 9 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: Good morning and good afternoon everybody. My name is Nathan Dean. 10 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 1: I'm a senior policy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. Welcome to 11 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,840 Speaker 1: the Washington Policy Pulse. Thanks again for all of those 12 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:43,199 Speaker 1: of you who have joined us on our zoom call, 13 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:45,600 Speaker 1: and thank you, excuse me, thank you for those of 14 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 1: you who are joining via the Balance of Power podcast. 15 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 1: We always welcome your listening and your readership and your support. 16 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 1: So we got a lot of stuff going on today 17 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: this week, A lot of stuff happened this weekend. But 18 00:00:58,160 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: the first thing I want to do is bring in 19 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 1: our senior litigation analyst, Elliott Stein, to talk about the 20 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: news that we just saw last night that Federal Reserve 21 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: Chairman's Rome Powell posted a two minute video in which 22 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 1: he said that the DOJ was investigating the Federal Reserve 23 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: over his testimony to Congress last year in regards to 24 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: the renovations that's been happening over at the Federal Reserve 25 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,559 Speaker 1: and also the insinuation that potentially Powell could be under 26 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: criminal indictment and or is this just an ongoing pressure 27 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: campaign from the White House when it comes to lowering 28 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: interest rates. So Elliott, let's bring you in and could 29 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 1: you just talk to us about what happened, what the 30 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: note that you put out in the terminal says, and 31 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:39,119 Speaker 1: what do you think is going to happen going forward? 32 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks Nathan, and hi everybody. Yeah, So, last evening, 33 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 3: in the middle of the great weekend of NFL football games, 34 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 3: we got news reports that the Justice Department, out of 35 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 3: its Washington, d C. Office had sent a suit subpoenas 36 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 3: to the Federal Reserve related to Chairman Powells testimony to 37 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 3: Congress in June concerning renovations of the Federal Reserve building. 38 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 3: Shortly thereafter, Chara Powell himself put out a video that 39 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 3: essentially confirmed that the subpoenas had been issued and also 40 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:23,919 Speaker 3: included his thoughts about sort of what precipitated those subpoenas. 41 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:26,399 Speaker 3: And his point was, you know, they get to frame 42 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:31,839 Speaker 3: this in the overall context of the President essentially disagreeing 43 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 3: with Chair Powells views and policies towards interest rates over 44 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 3: the months or maybe even years. So, you know, let 45 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 3: me just make three points. The first is that you know, 46 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 3: this really, as Chair Powell alluded to in his comments, 47 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 3: is really should be seen as part of President Trump's 48 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 3: efforts ongoing efforts to control the Federal Reserve Board. But 49 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:03,399 Speaker 3: as we know from at least a cookcase, for example, 50 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:06,959 Speaker 3: in order to remove a Federal Reserve Board governor, the 51 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 3: president needs some sort of cause. And the President has 52 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 3: essentially conceded that mere disagreement over interest rate policy would 53 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 3: not be sufficient to establish that cause, so he needs 54 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,920 Speaker 3: something more. And in this case, it seems that they're 55 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 3: trying to accuse Chair Powell of lying to Congress when 56 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 3: he testified there in June about perceived cost overruns of 57 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 3: renovations at the Federal Reserve of the Federal Reserve Building. 58 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 3: The second point I want to make is that this 59 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 3: probe is still in its early stages. This is justice 60 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 3: subpoena there's no certainty yet of an indictment, much less 61 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 3: of a conviction. For an indictment at grand jury would 62 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 3: have to approve that for you know, if that happens, 63 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 3: then the case would go to trial, and again a 64 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 3: jury would have to convict Chair Powell. I think it's 65 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 3: going to be very difficult for the Justice Department to 66 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 3: establish that Chair Powell intended to mislead and or lie 67 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 3: to Congress in his testimony in June. 68 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:21,719 Speaker 4: It seemed like the bulk of that, or at least the. 69 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:28,160 Speaker 3: Focus of that testimony that is part of Pina concerns 70 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 3: Chair Powell's explanations for why some of the details of 71 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 3: the renovation are different from what were in planning documents 72 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 3: that were sent to the National Capital Planning Commission, which 73 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 3: is one of the agencies that oversees the renovation. But 74 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 3: those explanations don't seem like they would rise to the 75 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 3: level of a federal crime. If there were any discrepancies. 76 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 3: It seems like be a matter of semantics or total 77 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 3: suitable explanations based on modest changes that the Federal Reserve 78 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 3: Board made to the renovation, and those have been supported 79 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 3: by an FAQ that the Federal Reserve issued on its 80 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 3: website after Chair Powell's testimony, further supporting his testimony and 81 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 3: the explanations that he gave. The third and last point 82 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 3: I want to make is that you should think about 83 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 3: the unintended consequences of this investigation. For one, it could 84 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 3: bolster Lisa Cook's case in the Supreme Court. As probably 85 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:38,479 Speaker 3: most of you know, that case is set to be 86 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 3: argued next week. We think Lisa Cook is going to win. 87 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 3: The Supreme Court has hinted in a few other hearings 88 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 3: that it views the Federal Reserve as sort of separate 89 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 3: from other agencies in that it should be independent from 90 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 3: the presidents complete and unfettered control. And so you know, 91 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:08,599 Speaker 3: the Supreme Court is likely attuned to headlines, and with 92 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 3: these headlines about an investigation of Chair Powell, if they're 93 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 3: already inclined to preserve independence, this could just further entrench 94 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 3: them in that view. I would also say that, you know, 95 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 3: to the extent Chair Powell was considering leaving in May 96 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:33,160 Speaker 3: after his term as Chair ends, you know, this may, 97 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 3: you know, may motivate him to stay on after his 98 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,119 Speaker 3: term as Chair ends, because his term as governor doesn't 99 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:44,840 Speaker 3: end until early twenty twenty eight, and so this may, 100 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:49,040 Speaker 3: you know, this may give him even more concern about 101 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 3: the Fed's independence and may give him a reason to 102 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 3: stay on after his terms as chair ends. And then 103 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 3: I would also just note Senator Tom Tillis's comments last 104 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 3: night where he said, you know that this move by 105 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 3: the Justice Department calls into question the independence of the 106 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:08,160 Speaker 3: Justice Department much more than it does the independence of 107 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 3: the Federal Reserve. And Tillis also said that he would 108 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 3: be reluctant to confirm and not me for FED Governor 109 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 3: or FED chair until this investigation is resolved. So this 110 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 3: may actually hold up President Trump's efforts to get a 111 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 3: new FED chair in place. So I put on a 112 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 3: note this morning. If you have to double finding it, 113 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 3: feel free to email me my emails eastein twenty six 114 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot Thanks Nathan. 115 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 1: Great, thank you. And you know, we just got one 116 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: of the client questions of what do you expect to 117 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: happen to myron spot when it expires at the end 118 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: of January. And you know, this is sort of interesting 119 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: because Senator Tillers's remark, you know, he sits on the 120 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: Senate Banking Committee and the Republicans have that committee thirteen 121 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 1: to eleven. So obviously, if Tilla says that he's not 122 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 1: going to support this, you know, that effectively blocks committee. Now, 123 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: the Senate does have the ability to bypass the committee, 124 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: they don't do it very often, and it's not supposed 125 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: to be for high profile positions like the Federal Reserve chairman. 126 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: So be very unusual for the Senate to say, look, 127 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 1: we're just going to bypass the committee and move forward 128 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: because of one Republican senator saying he's not going to 129 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: do this. So, you know, it would be one of 130 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 1: those things where it's going to be really interesting because 131 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 1: if this continues and Senator Tillis holds to his word, 132 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 1: you know, we could get to a point where, you know, 133 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 1: Jerome Powell remains a little bit longer as chair, and 134 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 1: like Elliott mentioned, you know, the assumption has always been 135 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: in Washington is that Powell would step down from the 136 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 1: governor position that takes him through twenty twenty eight. But 137 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 1: for all the talk of a shadow chair, it'd be 138 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 1: kind of interesting that if Jerome Poul already stick around, 139 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 1: you know, maybe the shadow chair goes in the other direction. 140 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:57,079 Speaker 1: I'm just throwing that out as is just a potential 141 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 1: unintended consequences. So can the president point in acting FED chairman? 142 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: So if Myron stays Elliott, I don't think the President 143 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 1: can because but I'll defer the to you. 144 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think what would happen in that case is 145 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 3: that is that right Myron would stay on, But no, 146 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 3: I don't think he could. 147 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 4: The point and acting sir. 148 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 1: Yeah. And just let's also remember is that, like Elliott's 149 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 1: pointed out before, you know, we're talking about the Federal 150 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,560 Speaker 1: Reserve Board. We're not sharing talking about the FOMC. 151 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 4: Uh. 152 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 1: The FOMC has a different uh, you know, has a 153 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 1: different voting establishment for its chair positions. So you know, 154 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: there is certainly interesting story to be following, and I 155 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:43,960 Speaker 1: think we're going to get a lot more information in 156 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: the coming days. It's also important to note that the 157 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 1: President yesterday and Air Force one when he was returning 158 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 1: to Washington d C, said he had no knowledge of this. 159 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 1: And Bloomberg News is reporting that FHFA director William Poulti 160 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 1: is one of the instigators behind this. But he was 161 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,439 Speaker 1: on Bloomber television morning and you see that he had 162 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 1: no knowledge of this whatsoever. So again, really interesting things 163 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: to see what happened here, And I would just say, 164 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 1: let's stay tuned and we get more questions on this. 165 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 1: Definitely reach out to Elliott and I, you know, on 166 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:15,680 Speaker 1: the term a week and happily answer anything that you 167 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 1: may have. 168 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 4: Just one thing, and you alluded to this. 169 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 3: The f MC guys have a separate process for electing 170 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 3: a chair, and it's that the Federal Reserve born governors 171 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,720 Speaker 3: and selves vote for the chair of the f ORMC. 172 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 3: So even if President Trump tried to name an acting 173 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 3: chair of the Federal Reserve Board, the f o m 174 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 3: C could still then name ar Powell if he's still 175 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:43,559 Speaker 3: there as chair of theth MC. 176 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:48,680 Speaker 1: Interesting times say to least, So okay, so let's move 177 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 1: off the Federal Reserve. Let's move to just some more 178 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 1: of the other stuff that's happening. Wait. A very busy weekend, 179 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:56,560 Speaker 1: President Trump put out two social media posts that I 180 00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:59,199 Speaker 1: wanted to talk about. One was he said, and I'm 181 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 1: paraphrasing because I have these in front of me, let's 182 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: talk about this credit card interest band. So President Trump 183 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 1: said that he would like or not like he said, 184 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 1: effective January twentieth, he's instituting a ten percent cap on 185 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 1: all credit card interest for one year. Now. I've looked 186 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,679 Speaker 1: at it multiple ways. I've tried to figure out how 187 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 1: to think outside the box, and I just don't see 188 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 1: the President having the authority to do this. A lot 189 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 1: of this is governed by state laws, and there have 190 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 1: been efforts amongst a couple of senators Senator Bernie Sanders, 191 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 1: the Independent from Vermont and Senator Josh Holly, the Republican 192 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: from Missouri, to actually institute this via legislation, and that 193 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: legislation went nowhere. You know, we had some numbers already 194 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 1: out on the terminal on this. If you took just 195 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 1: a drop from the twenty one percent industry average down 196 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,319 Speaker 1: to ten percent, you're looking at around one hundred and 197 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 1: twenty one billion in terms of exposure for loss revenues 198 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,959 Speaker 1: for these credit card issuers. And again you're also talking 199 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:54,599 Speaker 1: about the potentially of tightening up credit loss, of the 200 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 1: loss of these reward programs. Where I'm going with this 201 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: is that President Trump said this on Friday night. The 202 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:04,560 Speaker 1: credit card banks are going to be you know, obviously 203 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: they're reacting to this in the news. A lot of 204 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 1: these banks are down at the moment. We just don't 205 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 1: see any way of this being implemented in twenty twenty six. 206 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 1: I have a thirty percent chance on this legislation moving forward. 207 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: The reason being is is that you know, and this 208 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:18,559 Speaker 1: is similar to the next story that I'm going to 209 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,959 Speaker 1: tell in terms of this housing social media post that 210 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 1: Trump put out, is that the President Trump is moving 211 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 1: more towards affordability in because of the eyes of the 212 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:30,439 Speaker 1: election in twenty twenty six. And when you get moving 213 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 1: to the affordability on issues, you get this bipartisan warmth. 214 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: For example, in this case, you have Bernie Sanders teamed 215 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: up with Josh Holly. You have other Democrats who probably 216 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: would be over the moon Elizabeth Warren for example, it 217 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: would be over the moon in terms of capping credit 218 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: card interest rates to ten percent. But there is a 219 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 1: silent Republican out there. Think of these Republicans who are 220 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 1: close to Wall Street who are not going to be 221 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: on board with this. And the idea here is is 222 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 1: that if you have this credit card ban interest coming 223 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 1: from the President and it needs to be driven by legislation, 224 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 1: the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee 225 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:05,680 Speaker 1: in particular are going to want to have their hands 226 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:07,439 Speaker 1: all over this. They don't want it driven in by 227 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 1: Senator Holly and Senator Sanders. They want it driven by 228 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: the committees. And french Hill, the chairman of the House 229 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: Financial Services Committee, I don't think is on board with this. 230 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 1: Kim Scott, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, probably 231 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: not on board with this because the banks certainly aren't 232 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,079 Speaker 1: on board with this. And when the banks are going 233 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 1: to be pushing their allies on Capitol Hill, who are 234 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:28,680 Speaker 1: already in the middle of a fight on crypto for example, 235 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 1: gets really messy. And as a result, I think that 236 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: the essentially the powers that be essentially say look, we're 237 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:37,560 Speaker 1: going to slow this process down. But again, let's see 238 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:39,679 Speaker 1: what happens on January twenty. The bully pulpit, it from 239 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 1: the White House is very real, and so I would 240 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 1: anticipate you're going to see more on this, but I 241 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 1: just don't see how the President can actually implement it. 242 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 1: So let's talk about the housing social media posts that 243 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 1: he also said last week. Now, this was where President 244 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,679 Speaker 1: Trump said that he is going to work with Congress 245 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 1: to codify legislation that would ban corporations from purchasing the 246 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 1: intitutional purchases of single family homes. Now, there were really 247 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 1: two angles here. You can look at single family reads 248 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 1: and you can look at Blackstone. Now we have a 249 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 1: big report that came out this morning on the terminal. 250 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: But essentially the story is this is that when President 251 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 1: Trump goes to Davos in a week and a half, 252 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 1: I think it's a week and a half. When President 253 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 1: Trump goes to Davos, he said he's going to release 254 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 1: more information related to this, and then he's going to 255 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: ask Congress to codify this. And there is already legislation 256 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 1: out there on this, but it's coming from Democrats. Senator 257 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 1: Jackie Rosen from Nevada, for example, already has a piece 258 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 1: of legislation that would do something similar. Senator Bernie Moreno 259 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 1: from Pennsylvania, Republican, has said that he would actually put 260 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 1: this into law. So again, President Trump puts this idea 261 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 1: out here, it's got to support some Democrats, it's got 262 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 1: to support some Republicans. But again there's this silent Republican 263 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 1: out there that's not going to be on board with 264 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 1: this idea. Bloomberg Television had a great interview with the 265 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: former Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Patrick McHenry 266 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: last week, and in that Patrick McHenry said, Look, if 267 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 1: I'm on if I was on Capitol Hill, I'm not 268 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 1: gonna be on board with this. But at the very least, 269 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 1: the House Financial Services Committee is going to run and 270 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 1: wrap the issue, grab it back and say we're going 271 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 1: to study it. We're gonna have a hearing. And when 272 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 1: you have a hearing plus studying plus an issue that 273 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: really may not get sixty votes plus an election year, 274 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 1: I just don't see it really going anywhere. I think 275 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 1: President Trump is going to continue the bully pulpit because look, 276 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 1: affordability is an issue that he's really trying to push 277 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 1: before the midterms. But I don't think it's going to happen. 278 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 1: But in terms of the companies that we looked at, 279 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 1: these single family reads like Invitation Homes and AMH, there's 280 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 1: real risk here because if this were to brew into something, 281 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 1: this is really speaks to their business model. But when 282 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 1: you look at Blackstone or the private equity firms in particular, 283 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: they are a lot less exposed to single family retail 284 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: than when you look at it and it as part 285 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 1: of their assets under management. So there was a lot 286 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: of sentiment I think last week going and it against 287 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 1: Blackstone in particular, that may not be warranted. So again 288 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 1: keep that in mind. We're going to talk about cryptocurrency 289 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: just briefly. We have two planned markups. One of them 290 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: is actually going to happen. The other one is a 291 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: little bit I still think uncertain. We have a Senate 292 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 1: Banking Committee and a Senate ad Committee markup. Now, we've 293 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 1: talked about cryptocurrency in the past. I'm not going to 294 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 1: rehash this. If you're listening to us, to us on 295 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 1: the podcast, go back to last week. That's where I 296 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: talked about this in greater detail. But the story about 297 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: these markups is this. Right now, I'm at a seventy 298 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 1: percent chance of passage of a crypto bill in the 299 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 1: first half of this year. If we get through these 300 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 1: markups and people are talking great, and there's lots of saying, yep, 301 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: we had some great movement, some great negotiations, still have 302 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 1: some work to do, but hey, let's figure this out. 303 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 1: I'm going to stay at seventy percent if we come 304 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 1: out of these markups and they are partisan, meaning the 305 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: Democrats are not on board with this, and look, I 306 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: don't think the Democrats are on board with this. Going 307 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 1: into it. But if the Democrats come out here with 308 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: pretty harsh language about what's going on, I'm going to 309 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 1: be lowering my chances because right now this fight is 310 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: over yield when it comes to stable coins. This is 311 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: part of the Genius Act. And you've heard statements from 312 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: the Bank saying we're not going to support this if 313 00:16:58,120 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 1: we don't get what we want. If you've heard statement 314 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 1: from Crypto saying we're not going to support this if 315 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 1: we don't get what we want. We even saw the 316 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 1: White House last week come out and say, look, folks 317 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: need to stop complaining about this. And again I'm paraphrasing, 318 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 1: because you tell us that the current situation is untenable. 319 00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:15,119 Speaker 1: There's a lot of emotion going on with this, and 320 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 1: so I think these markups are going to be really 321 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:20,119 Speaker 1: interesting to watch. So call me on Friday if you 322 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:21,919 Speaker 1: want my take on this. I'm going to be putting 323 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,119 Speaker 1: my takeout after these markups. So if you want to 324 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: talk about crypto, Friday is probably the best day to 325 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:32,160 Speaker 1: talk about it real quickly. On the shutdown and the calendar, again, 326 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 1: we're at a thirty percent chance of a shutdown. I 327 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 1: don't think that's changing, even with some of the stuff 328 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 1: that's going on with the FED shair or anything like that. 329 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:44,119 Speaker 1: At the moment, Congress is actually working on. Congress is 330 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 1: just working on a mini omnibus at the moment for Commerce, Justice, Energy, 331 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:52,120 Speaker 1: and Interior. The idea here is that they could pass 332 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 1: that get it through the rest of the year, but 333 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 1: more likely than not, they're going to kick the cannon 334 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: into March. Think about it this way, the calendar is 335 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 1: the most important thing to think about this week. The 336 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 1: Senate is really focused on this war powers authorization related 337 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: to Venezuela. Now, look, I'm not paying attention to that 338 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 1: just because it really doesn't any investable angable It's a resolution. 339 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:14,639 Speaker 1: Trump Trump can veto resolutions all you want. I'm not 340 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:16,239 Speaker 1: really paying attention to it. But it's going to eat 341 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 1: up the Senate calendar. Next week we have Martin Luther 342 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,160 Speaker 1: King on Monday, the Senate is out for recess. Then 343 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,360 Speaker 1: they come back and boom, it's right before January thirty first. 344 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:26,880 Speaker 1: Very unlikely they're going to come to an agreement before 345 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:29,679 Speaker 1: January thirty first. They know this, and so don't be 346 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 1: surprised if they kick the can, because you know, it's 347 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: just one of those things there's really no strategy on 348 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 1: either side at the moment, and so I think they 349 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: come back after the recess, they say, right, we need 350 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 1: more time. They do a continuing resolution that gets us 351 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: to February or March, and then they have the shutdown 352 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 1: threat if it happens at that point as well. The 353 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 1: last thing I'm going to leave you with, and I 354 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 1: apologize that we went a few minutes over, but I 355 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: think there's just so much happening is is that we 356 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 1: did not see the AEBDA case come out on Friday. 357 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:59,120 Speaker 1: This is President Trump's tariffs. The next choice, the next 358 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,919 Speaker 1: chance of this is Wednesday at ten am Eastern. Just 359 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 1: from a logistics standpoint, we're going to be on standby 360 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 1: at ten am. We have Bloomberg Intelligence are going to 361 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 1: put together a webinar. I think, and Elliott can correct 362 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:14,680 Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong. In the chat, I think it's 363 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 1: for Friday, if it were to happen. Also in the chat, 364 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 1: just Elliott put in a little bit more and more 365 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 1: point about Potus and Jerome Paull. But when it comes 366 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:28,679 Speaker 1: to these tariffs, there are two questions that I'm asking 367 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:32,080 Speaker 1: myself when we read that decision. If the decision comes 368 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,199 Speaker 1: out and says that these tariffs are unlawful. We are 369 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 1: still at a sixty percent prediction. Markets are actually a 370 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 1: little bit higher. They're just north to seventy percent at 371 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 1: the moment. But if Scotus comes out and says that 372 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:43,920 Speaker 1: these tariffs are unlawful, the two questions you should be 373 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 1: asking yourself is one, are there going to be refunds 374 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 1: involved or not? Now? January second, the Customs and Border 375 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 1: Patrol put out a very small interim final rule into 376 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 1: the Federal Register. I didn't notice it until last week 377 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 1: that they actually confirmed that these refunds, if they were 378 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 1: to come out, or refunds and general would be sent 379 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,439 Speaker 1: via electronic funds transfer. If you've heard me on this 380 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 1: call before, you said it'd be payper check. The paper 381 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:08,880 Speaker 1: check is gone. They can do this via electronic funds transfer. 382 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 1: Now the second question, so the first question is is 383 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,360 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court going to allow refunds or not. We're 384 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:17,159 Speaker 1: going to have to look at that and see because 385 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 1: that a lot of companies are dictating, including myself. I 386 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 1: went to Finland earlier this year bought some ETHH law, 387 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 1: and I have like some import taxes I want to 388 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 1: get back. I still have that receipt, So I'm going 389 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,119 Speaker 1: to be watching. But that's the question. Refunds are not. 390 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: Then the next question is outside of the Supreme Court, 391 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 1: and we really have to look at the White House. 392 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 1: The second question is this President Trump has other ways 393 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 1: to do tariffs. Section two thirty one, Section three oh one, 394 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,959 Speaker 1: Section one twenty two. All these investigations. Now, they can 395 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,199 Speaker 1: come out and say we're going to do an investigation 396 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,359 Speaker 1: that moment that and we are going to kickstart this 397 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 1: and we're going to put these tariffs back on. But 398 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: investigations take time, and those investigations, if they end or 399 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,400 Speaker 1: when they end, would most likely be two or three 400 00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 1: months before the midterms. And again I'm not going to 401 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: convinced that President Trump would immediately come back and say, look, 402 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,240 Speaker 1: we're going to plate these tariffs back on that are 403 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 1: extremely unpopular with the American populace two to three months 404 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: before an election. So again something to keep in mind. 405 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 1: I don't have a view on that either way in 406 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,199 Speaker 1: terms of like he's going to do it or not. 407 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 1: But that's like my spidy sense is tingling on that. 408 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: So again that's the question that we're going to have 409 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,199 Speaker 1: to see on the tariffs, So I apologize that we 410 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: went twenty minutes, but though but I do want to 411 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,359 Speaker 1: say thank you for sticking around. We're going to have 412 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,400 Speaker 1: a really busy week this week, so again, feel free 413 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 1: to reach out to us on the terminal or call 414 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,439 Speaker 1: us email us. Thank you very much for listening. We 415 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,359 Speaker 1: really appreciate it. Hope you have a great week and 416 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 1: we'll talk soon. 417 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:42,400 Speaker 2: Our thanks to Nathan Deed, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst, 418 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:46,159 Speaker 2: bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse. 419 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 2: For more from BI or to join this call live 420 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:53,240 Speaker 2: each week, you can email Nathan at ndan at Bloomberg 421 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:57,200 Speaker 2: dot net. That's nd EA n at Bloomberg dot net. 422 00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 2: Come back to the podcast later today for the latest 423 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 2: tradition of Balance of Power 424 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 3: M