1 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,680 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network. 2 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 1: I and Chad Millman, and I'm gonna be joined by 3 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:22,639 Speaker 1: my BFF, my companion professional better, Simon Hunter. And I 4 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 1: will say, right now, folks, I feel it. I feel 5 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: it in the love you sent me on Twitter, in 6 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 1: the love you sent Simon on Twitter. And for the 7 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:35,519 Speaker 1: most part, for the most part, I say that entirely 8 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: we're with genuine affection because I do feel proud of 9 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 1: the of the community we've built in the Favorites, and 10 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 1: it does feel like, more often than not, we are 11 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:51,160 Speaker 1: all in this together, and people ride with us when 12 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: we're doing well, and they appreciate that we talk about 13 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: it when we're not doing well. And right now, folks, 14 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: we are suffering. We are suffering because everything we thought 15 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: we knew, everything that we thought we were doing right 16 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: at the end of the year that got us to 17 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: a five and oh week seventeen that won of some money. Uh, 18 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: everything we thought we knew we did not know. This 19 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: past weekend Home Favorites we loved not so much. Thank 20 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 1: you Buffalo, Thank you Pittsburgh, Thank you, Seattle. Home Dogs 21 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 1: we loved no Thank you Tennessee. Backup quarterbacks covering. Thank 22 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 1: God for Tyne Nicky, but screw you started, turned back up, 23 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: turned starter Jared Golf Simon Hunter Professional Better has joined 24 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 1: me on the podcast. All season long, we made five 25 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: picks every week the Draft Kings Pro Football Pick I'm 26 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 1: National Championship to win one million dollars. We came two 27 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 1: out of eight hundred people we potted. We didn't stop, 28 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: we didn't cash out. We decided to keep making five 29 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: picks every week and share them with you. We did 30 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: it in a week seventeen and we were up another 31 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 1: eighteen hundred dollars. We did it again last weekend. Not 32 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: such a great week, and we will break down where 33 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 1: we stand in a second. One more reminder, we are 34 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: bringing back the cash Fuel phrase to pays contest, giving 35 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: a lucky listener a hundred dollars for every game we 36 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 1: win each week, not a lucky week. This week we 37 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: are giving an equal amount of the charity the winner's 38 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 1: choice to be eligible. Remember these are new rules from 39 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 1: the regular season, So listen up, go follow at the 40 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 1: Favorites Pod and send us your submission for the player 41 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 1: this week, for the player who broke your heart this 42 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 1: past wild card weekend, tag at the favorites pot in 43 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 1: your response Matt Mitchell, Producer Extraordinaire. We'll sift through the 44 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 1: submissions and randomly choose it. You will win the money. 45 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:51,519 Speaker 1: Hopefully you'll win more than this week's win or one 46 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 1: every pick. We make all the data, all the analysis 47 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. Follow me follow at Simon 48 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: Hunter in the app. That's we're gonna put our picks. Oh, Simon, 49 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 1: this was a rough weekend, Chad. No one sells doom 50 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 1: and gloom like Chad moment. Oh my god, what an 51 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 1: opening that was. Yeah, I got I got smacked around. Yeah, 52 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: I got smacked around by the books. Um. Now, it 53 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: was embarrassing, especially in the sense that, like I told you, 54 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 1: other pros listen to this, My bob, my boss listening 55 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: to this. And they all texted me right after we 56 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: got done and told me how bad of it picked 57 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 1: that Rams that Ramshawks game was. They're like, why why 58 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 1: do you like the Seahawks futures, Like that's such a 59 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: bad futures, Like they haven't played well in months, and 60 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 1: I just I misread that so bad. But yes, it's uh, 61 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 1: it's tough when I know how many fans bet with us, 62 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 1: and they in trust us with their picks and I 63 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 1: got killed. Man. So the only game against the spread 64 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: I got right was Washington, And it depends on what 65 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 1: where you got because if you got seven and a half, 66 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: I didn't get that right. Technically that's oh and six. 67 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 1: But oh god, it was hard. But it's one of 68 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 1: those where I have a playoff model and I didn't 69 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 1: tweak it enough. I took I put too much faith 70 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: in home field advantage in a COVID season. Why I 71 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 1: shouldn't have. And I knew that first that first Saturday. 72 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 1: I knew I had made a mistake. After those games, 73 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 1: I was like, man, my model might be a way 74 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:27,840 Speaker 1: off here because I thought it was getting good value 75 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 1: on different games and it just was not coming up 76 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: that way. So I've been working. I've been working two 77 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 1: days here hard trying to update it. And we'll see 78 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:39,559 Speaker 1: this week. I mean, it's it's like kind of scary 79 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,599 Speaker 1: at this point because I was just so off last week. 80 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 1: But I I do. I like these I like these lines. 81 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 1: This week we'll get into it. But yeah, that that 82 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:49,720 Speaker 1: hurt our bank account, buddy, that that hurt us for sure? 83 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 1: All Right. I want to get I want to get 84 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 1: into sort of the losses that directly impact me. Yea, 85 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,720 Speaker 1: I do you want to do that? Um? Literally, as 86 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: my architect wife is downstairs drawn up the plans for 87 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: the renovation she wants to do uh to our house, 88 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 1: and I'm like, all right, well there goes the landscape 89 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 1: and budget. Um. But you and I did an instant 90 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: reaction on Sunday night a video that we posted on 91 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 1: Action Network HQ on Twitter where we've talked about the 92 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: lines that we liked the most for the NFC. We 93 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 1: had to record at eight thirty because you like to 94 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 1: go to bed, so we couldn't wait until all the 95 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 1: games were over. But Rams were plus seven against the Packers, 96 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 1: Box opened a plus four against the Saints. You immediately 97 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: said you liked Box plus four because home field was 98 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: not worth what you thought it was. But you had 99 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 1: known home field wasn't worth what you thought it was 100 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: all fucking season, So like, why were you giving it 101 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 1: any more credence during the playoffs. This message brought to 102 00:05:54,320 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 1: you by Cucumber Water, the official beverage of gambling Insiders. Well, Chad, actually, yeah, 103 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 1: I know, look at you know his home field did 104 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:07,839 Speaker 1: matter this year. I mean I guess it didn't matter 105 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 1: so much for the spread. But you look at these 106 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: best teams. I think the Seahawk to seven and one. 107 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: They're only lost was to that Giants at home. A 108 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: lot of the teams did really well at home surprisingly 109 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 1: this year. You're completely right. It's just I have two 110 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 1: different models, Like it sounds weird by break the season 111 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: into five or six different sections. Where I had the 112 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: preseason of my futures, which in my book, I keep 113 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:31,039 Speaker 1: all those numbers together. They I'll do the first four 114 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 1: weeks to the season. I put those numbers together, then 115 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 1: I'll do the full season. Then I'll break it down here, 116 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:38,279 Speaker 1: we'll do the playoffs, and then I'll do the super Bowl. 117 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 1: So like each one of those things, there are five 118 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:43,599 Speaker 1: different things for me during the season. So I already 119 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: knew the playoffs for my best thing. So I'm about 120 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 1: to actually shot Chat here because Chat doesn't even know this. 121 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 1: I actually pulled off our four thousand, two hundred. Yeah, 122 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:53,919 Speaker 1: I cast it out before the play has even started 123 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 1: because we had made money and I was able to 124 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 1: put in a future bet for us on Buffalo. So 125 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 1: I was just like, I'm taking this. So me, Chad 126 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 1: both got a thousand, nine man Mitchell gets his four hundred, 127 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 1: and this is all just fun, free money we're playing with. 128 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: Are you going to place a bat all one? Because 129 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 1: I know the playoffs aren't my It's not my best thing. 130 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 1: My best thing is the season. I'm good at the season. 131 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: So I know, I'm sure you're shocked right now. I 132 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 1: am shocked shocked. So wait, so I'm getting money. Yeah, 133 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: I'm your money manager. So like that's the pro of me. 134 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 1: It's like I know what I'm good at, what I'm 135 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 1: not good at, and I was just nerrative, nervous about 136 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 1: my system going on this playoff where my model always 137 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 1: kews towards home teams and big dogs. So it didn't 138 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 1: work out for us, like that that Bears one. I 139 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: don't know, depends what number again you got it at. 140 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 1: But like I took a loss on that beer because 141 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 1: I played them at plus ten and ten and a 142 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: half plus eleven and eleven a half, so I got 143 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 1: a little bit back. But I was off in that 144 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: Bears game. I I'm like looking at this week and 145 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 1: it's like back to the same thing where I'm looking 146 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: at my system and it's giving me the lines and 147 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 1: I might not totally agree these some of these lines, 148 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: so I might go against it. Unlike last week where 149 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: I couldn't tell you how many pros like literally messaged me, 150 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 1: and especially about that Cleveland Pittsburgh game where even our 151 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 1: fans are getting good now they're understanding how the line 152 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 1: works in the movement, and everyone's message me and saying, 153 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 1: aren't you terrified of this line like not moving to 154 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 1: seven like you thought it was going to And I was, 155 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: I was just like, oh my god. The sports books, 156 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 1: they clearly have a read here, and then they don't 157 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 1: think that. I think they honestly thought that came was 158 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 1: gonna be Pittsburgh one by three. I think that's the 159 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 1: way they had the Lion because opened what was a 160 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,320 Speaker 1: three and a half, and I think they still felt 161 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: confident enough with the game script where you know, the 162 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,679 Speaker 1: first thirty plays, the fancy is gonna write those plays 163 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 1: up for Baker and the team. That's not that was 164 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: not worried. The worried with the Browns was after they 165 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 1: go off those thirty players, they were off script. What 166 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: are the Browns gonna look at look like? And they 167 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: got the gift from the gods. They literally started the 168 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 1: game up fourteen nothing in Roethlisberger through three interceptions start 169 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 1: the game, So a twenty enough theme lead. You can 170 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 1: throw out all the numbers. Oh well, everything I believe 171 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: in that coaching matters out the window at that point. 172 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:08,839 Speaker 1: That was kind of one of those where it was 173 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: the worst game in the history of Pittsburgh ever at home, 174 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 1: and I happened to bet on Pittsburgh in that game. 175 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: So yeah, buddy, it's it's a rough week, but it's 176 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: one of those where I just feel back for the fans, 177 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 1: but for us, I'm money major, right. I pulled out 178 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: our four thousand, two hundred just because I just knew 179 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 1: going in that I didn't feel great about it, and 180 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:32,079 Speaker 1: our bills future still alive. So it worked out for 181 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 1: us so far that we lost this week. We lost 182 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: the look man, but it was probably like a thousand, 183 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 1: seven hundred about like because every everything I was wrong on, 184 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 1: like the Pittsburgh money line killed us, um, the Seahawks 185 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 1: money line killed us. The Seahawks future has killed us. 186 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: So it's tough, but people can see how really is. 187 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 1: It's like I I mean, I don't hide from it. 188 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 1: I'll put my picks out there, Like if I own it. 189 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: It sucks, and yeah, people can come at me, and 190 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 1: I won't blo come this week because I deserve it. 191 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 1: Like that was horrible, horrible showing by your guy. But 192 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 1: it's one of those where I just go to work 193 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 1: on the system and I'm hoping this week. I'm not 194 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 1: even trying to get back what's lost. I'm just gonna 195 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:12,560 Speaker 1: consistently bet what I bet every week. So it's not 196 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 1: one of those where I'm chasing. It's just I had 197 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: to keep trusting my system and updating and hopefully I 198 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 1: catch up to these numbers. Because you're gonna say right now, 199 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:21,439 Speaker 1: the home fielder really did not matter for any of 200 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: these teams. It was really interesting. So it's fascinating you 201 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:28,840 Speaker 1: pulled it out. Uh. I'm thrilled you did. Uh because 202 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: because because the other the other night, Stacy, my wife 203 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 1: was like, so, so we won week seventeen, Like we 204 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 1: won Week seventeen. She was like, how did we do 205 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 1: this weekend? I'm like, we do not win. We did 206 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: not win. I think we lost everything. I think we 207 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,439 Speaker 1: basically lost everything that we had we had won in 208 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:53,600 Speaker 1: Week seventeen. She's like, well, that's going the wrong way. 209 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 1: And so now I can tell her that we actually 210 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: are done and like we cashed out and so that's amazing. 211 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:06,719 Speaker 1: As usual, you're on top of it. Yeah, I mean, dude, 212 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 1: I like I am a pro, like I know the 213 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: money manage and I'm never I'm never gonna chase And 214 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: this is the fact that we did make a profit 215 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 1: the week seventeen, which just made it an easy choice 216 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 1: just to be like, I mean, I don't know, I'm 217 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 1: gonna have to pay on taxes on this. I'm assuming 218 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: it's not gonna be one of the two hundred, but like, 219 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 1: I don't care. We can still split it up evenly. 220 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: But it's nice knowing that, yeah, we lost that money, 221 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 1: but we're both getting a thousand hunred each thank you DraftKings, 222 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 1: and Matt Mitchell's getting money, and we have a futures 223 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:36,319 Speaker 1: on the Bills, which is Matt Mitchell's favorite team. So 224 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: best case scenario, if if the Bills win the Super Bowl, 225 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 1: like maybe we'll each make an extra thousand on top 226 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 1: of it. So we're all we're all hoping it works 227 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 1: out for the Bills and we'll dive into it. But yeah, 228 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: it's it's that's half the game. We talked all the 229 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 1: time money management and knowing what you're good at what 230 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,559 Speaker 1: you're not. That's how you can make a profession in this. 231 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: And it was weird trying to gamble for you guys, 232 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 1: because it's like going from Wall Street to like trade 233 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 1: penny stocks. It's just it's just two different worlds where 234 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 1: it is. It's just weird. It's like, um, it's weird 235 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 1: to manage such a small amount of money after not 236 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 1: doing that in such a long time. And it was fun, honestly, 237 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 1: like it was fun trying to win you guys the money. 238 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 1: But yeah, it sucked when that Pittsburgh when they were 239 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 1: down twenty eight nothing I knew that was pretty much 240 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 1: our biggest bet was Pittsburgh. I was just like, oh 241 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:25,439 Speaker 1: my god, I can't believe it. That just went this 242 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:28,920 Speaker 1: bad this weekend. So I don't know if I should 243 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 1: be should just be like completely insulted. It's fun winning 244 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 1: like you like Pia, It's a couple of dollars. It's 245 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,439 Speaker 1: just it feels great for me. It feels like nice 246 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: charity that I did a nice thing for you guys. Well, 247 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 1: it's just awesome because thanks again to our friends and DraftKings, 248 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:51,959 Speaker 1: Like we were playing with house money, you know what 249 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 1: I mean. So it was it was just fun to 250 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 1: know that it would be a nice like Manella says, 251 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 1: it's a nice extra Christmas bonus. So like I was 252 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:00,080 Speaker 1: just trying to make it a pretty number, Like if 253 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 1: I could get it up to where me and you 254 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:03,839 Speaker 1: were both taking home three thousand and Matt Mitchell that 255 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 1: got like eight or nine, that just would have been awesome. 256 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: But I came up Sure. But if the bill has 257 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:11,480 Speaker 1: come through for us, we're all die hard Bills fans 258 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: now because the Bears future, in the Seahawks future, we're 259 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 1: just complete duds. Well we all know as as Matt 260 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: Mitchell told us before the podcast, we know that he 261 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: like has conscripted his entire block to be Bills fans. 262 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 1: And this weekend when they won, because he was from 263 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 1: Western New York and he loves the Bills. When they 264 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: won this week, he bought everybody on the block a 265 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:37,679 Speaker 1: Cartner bed. And Jerry's so already know he's spending the 266 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: profits that he made from the podcast, and we already 267 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 1: know he's spending His future is beat um. But it 268 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 1: would be nice if we could help him sort of, 269 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: you know, support his habit of turning his block into 270 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 1: his block in Milwaukee into bills fans. Matt Mitchell, I'll 271 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 1: then we'll then you guys after us because I found yours. 272 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:04,080 Speaker 1: Be Chad wasn't hard to find because apparently send a 273 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 1: ton of money to our good friend Scott Scott Miller. 274 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 1: So I just thought that was funny. I was able 275 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: to find the Chad Millman just from all you send. 276 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 1: I got to find Matt Mitchell. So, Matt, we'll have 277 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 1: to text me his mobile. Yeah, I'll send it to 278 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 1: you guys a day. Chad, you can do this stuff 279 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 1: on your house. Man Mitchell will fix the hole in 280 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 1: his basement. It's all good, baby, signon. You're a class act. 281 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 1: We uh, we owe you so much more than we 282 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 1: can ever repay you. Um. But we do have to 283 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: deliver for the fans. We do have to deliver for 284 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 1: the fans the big balls. Matt Mitchell sending men as 285 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 1: we speak. I love. We have to deliver the big 286 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: balls better the week, which, by the way, is the 287 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 1: one game we won last week. I think when we 288 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 1: talked about it, Washington was plus eight and a half. 289 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 1: They covered by eight. Thank you, Tyler Heineke I was 290 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 1: hoping the Bears could make a trade for Taylor Heineke 291 00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 1: sometime Sunday morning, even with a separated a C joint 292 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 1: in his non throwing shoulder, I knew I was not 293 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 1: betting on the Bears at plus ten, and no matter what, 294 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 1: no matter what it got to, we got to do 295 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 1: our unattractive bet, the hornet's nest bet. We gottat our 296 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: foxhole bet. We got what we got. Four games this 297 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: weekend Light Slate, four sides, four totals, working on a 298 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 1: model that Simon Hunter can't stand. But that's okay. We're 299 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 1: gonna slog through it. Are you ready, Simon Hunter? I'm 300 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 1: ready for my friend. Saturday afternoon, five, we got the 301 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 1: Rams visiting the Packers. Interesting game because it opened at 302 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 1: seven and then immediately got bet down to six and 303 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 1: a half. That is all about. I don't know what 304 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 1: that's about. Actually, I'm looking at the percentages in the 305 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: Action Network gap and it's like money and bets coming 306 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: on the Packers. So maybe it's a couple of wise 307 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 1: guys betting on the Rams. Yeah, that's gotta be a 308 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 1: smart group that came in and just better right right 309 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 1: when it came out, something that me and you were 310 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 1: talking and uh yeah, people can judge me about going 311 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: to bed at eight thirty on Sunday night. That's just 312 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 1: what I do. I have to wake up and watch 313 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: all the films of all the games from the previous week. 314 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 1: It's just a habit. During the season. I literally go 315 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 1: to bed early and I'll wake up at three four 316 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 1: in the morning and make more bests for the upcoming weeks. 317 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: So it's I hated it too. I hate that I 318 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: wake up so Earli. There's some days where I have 319 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 1: nothing to do and I still wake up at three 320 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: four in the morning, but to have it so for 321 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 1: this game, it's the same. I viewed as the same 322 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 1: as I did with the Seahawks in the Rams last week, 323 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 1: where I knew the Rams were banged up. I know 324 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 1: that Rams have a great defense and looking at Packerstin, 325 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: that's well rested at home. But again, I have this 326 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 1: number of four in my system, and I'm that's so 327 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: I'm worried about this week that I adjusted too much 328 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: to this home team not being as much value. But 329 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 1: this this game feels like it should be four four 330 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 1: and a half. So right now I think all the 331 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: value is on the RAMS, but watching golf last week, 332 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 1: he can't grip a football. When he's put throwing the ball, 333 00:16:57,880 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: he's kind of pushing it out of his hand. He's 334 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: not really putting any spin on it. And the packagers there, honestly, 335 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:08,360 Speaker 1: their strength is upfront, but they just have great cornerbacks. 336 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 1: And it makes me a little worried here. If it 337 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 1: is gonna be golf this week, I wouldn't be as 338 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,920 Speaker 1: confident in this number. But to me that this has 339 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 1: to be our foxhole, better the week. Let's clide down 340 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 1: into the foxhole. Oh no, we're already in the fox 341 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 1: hole just because no one, no one really believes in 342 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 1: this RAMS. I mean, I know the pros did last week. 343 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 1: That was just a sharp game. We talked all the 344 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 1: time about fading the public, and that's what hurt me 345 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 1: last week was getting away from that if you just 346 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 1: fade the public. Last week against the spread, I was 347 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,919 Speaker 1: four and two. I think on totals it might have 348 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: been fourn to Urs three and three, um, depending on 349 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: when you got that Titan's number. But it's it's a 350 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: weird week where I just think that defense is really 351 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: something that I value here in the playoffs. And looking 352 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,360 Speaker 1: at all the teams left, this is the best defense 353 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 1: by far in the Rams. So we'll see what the 354 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:08,159 Speaker 1: deal is. If it's golf, I won't play this. I can't. 355 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 1: I can't back golf in this game because I'm gonna 356 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:13,479 Speaker 1: need to make throws here because the Packers they might 357 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 1: get shut down here offensively. But we know Aaron Rodgers, 358 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 1: he's gonna get to that twenty number. He's gonna get 359 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,399 Speaker 1: to twenty at home. So for me, I'll wait on 360 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: this number because I need more info and hopefully the 361 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: public will come in heavy like you talked about on 362 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:28,880 Speaker 1: green Bay, and this time we'll go back to seven. 363 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,360 Speaker 1: I can get the Rams at seven again. But right 364 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 1: now I have this game that all the value is 365 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 1: on the Rams alright, So we'll wait on that and 366 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 1: see how Jared Golf is doing. I also curious about 367 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: Aaron Donald, like he's so important to that defense, and 368 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,639 Speaker 1: he did not look good when he went out of 369 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 1: that game the other day. The total in this game 370 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: opened at forty seven. It got that down to forty 371 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 1: five and a half. Massive, massive money coming in on 372 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:57,399 Speaker 1: the under you just mentioned. You think green Bay the 373 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 1: key number there, the magic number. They will get to twenty. 374 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,399 Speaker 1: So then the question boo coomes do they get to 375 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 1: do they get to thirty? Can the Rams get to fifteen? 376 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,400 Speaker 1: Like how are you thinking about the total in this game? 377 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 1: So it's it sounds weird, but the number I came 378 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 1: out like my meeting the most likely outcome for this 379 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: game is nineteen. So my my system's favorite in the 380 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 1: undersaw being I took that under already. I think I 381 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 1: don't think I got that good. I think it was seven. 382 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 1: I hope I didn't get that unfortunately, got forty six, 383 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 1: forty six and a half. But I like down there 384 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 1: because usually with Green Bay we get cold here and 385 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 1: both these teams they're designed around the run. I know 386 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers m v P. This year the offense was 387 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: lights out, but we have Ramsey that's gonna be shouting 388 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 1: Davante Adams, which is probably one of my favorite matchups 389 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 1: to watch this week, And you are right that is 390 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 1: worried some with Aaron Donald because he he did try 391 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 1: to come back and he didn't look right after the injury, 392 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 1: but he's so tough man. I could just see him 393 00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: getting shot up before the game with horse tranquilizers and 394 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,120 Speaker 1: he's just gonna play like this guy is just a warrior. 395 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:06,160 Speaker 1: So yeah, it's that's surprising that that much money is coming. 396 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: But these these pros must have a read on it, 397 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:11,680 Speaker 1: and they must like gender as well. But if if 398 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 1: it crosses down to forty two, I would probably take 399 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,160 Speaker 1: that over because it just feels like that's a key 400 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 1: number with these two offenses. But it's it's a it's 401 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 1: an interesting total, but I wouldn't make it one of 402 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: our best fives, all right, So that is not a 403 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 1: hornets nest. That is not a big balls. But we 404 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:35,719 Speaker 1: have chosen a foxhold. We have decided that the Rams 405 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 1: plus six and a half is the foxhold bet. Assuming 406 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 1: that Jared Goff is uh, we can see what's gonna 407 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: be happening with Jared Goff. I don't know that anything 408 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: is gonna change. I'm doubtful that Wolford is gonna play. 409 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,640 Speaker 1: It feels like it's going to be a Jared golf game. 410 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 1: So I feel like you've got to commit really to me. Yeah, 411 00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,199 Speaker 1: I still want to wait though, but I know what 412 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,680 Speaker 1: you mean, should commit. But I'm not really worried about 413 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,719 Speaker 1: this number getting too too low. I still think it's 414 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 1: gonna stay up here just because everyone's gonna be teasing 415 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: and taking the moneyline of the packers. Like I did 416 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 1: a big bet yesterday where I did um Obama's money 417 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 1: line with Green Bay's money line. So there's me plenty 418 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,120 Speaker 1: of people. I mean, they did the Joe Public money 419 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,360 Speaker 1: line bets like that. So I just think that enough 420 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 1: money will come in with Packers that we can wait 421 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 1: on this point. I think they'll get back to seven 422 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,200 Speaker 1: if it does, and we're feeling confident on Saturday, I 423 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,439 Speaker 1: don't mind putting this in as our best five. All right, 424 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: all right, Ravens plus two and a half, big big 425 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:40,119 Speaker 1: win on the road last week in Tennessee. They fooled 426 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:44,399 Speaker 1: us like the Dickens. We loved Tennessee. H And by 427 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,119 Speaker 1: the way, what I did love was I think on 428 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 1: Saturday morning we were texting about the bills Colts, and 429 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 1: I loved the bills. I had already bet the bills, 430 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 1: and You're like, yeah, we're not putting the bills in. 431 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 1: It's weird that this line hasn't moved off a six 432 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: and a half a week. Sure enough, your instincts were 433 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:06,240 Speaker 1: spot on. So sometimes like you win by not making 434 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: the bet. Meanwhile, the Bills are two and a half 435 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 1: point favorites at home against the Ravens. Come on, What's what? 436 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 1: And that's why I'm so mad at my stuff. Is 437 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 1: like I knew as a pro, I knew that Colts game, 438 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 1: I knew that Rams game, and I knew that Cleveland 439 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 1: game just stuck out like games that I should know better. Well, 440 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,399 Speaker 1: like soon those those numbers did weird things where they 441 00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 1: didn't move and the pub was still coming heavy on 442 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 1: the other sides. That's why I'm so bad at myself. 443 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 1: It's like, as a professional, I look for those situations. 444 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,879 Speaker 1: The fact that I went with the public against them 445 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:39,880 Speaker 1: that was just that was just terrible. I just put 446 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,720 Speaker 1: too much faith again into my system. But so before 447 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:46,080 Speaker 1: I updated it, I had this at Bill's minus two 448 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 1: and a half. And then once I did updated, I 449 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 1: headed the pick. Basically my mode was saying take the 450 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,640 Speaker 1: Ravens here, that's where the value is, and I'm gonna 451 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,479 Speaker 1: bring the human element into this where I I just 452 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 1: think that we saw a moment there with Josh Allen 453 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,959 Speaker 1: Att right before half time, his team was down ten seven, 454 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 1: He had the ball in his four yard line and 455 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,399 Speaker 1: he drove the field and got a touchdown for the 456 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 1: Bills before the half time. And that's one of those 457 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,879 Speaker 1: moments where you know when you're looking at greatness and 458 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 1: above normal. And again we see with Lamar those runs 459 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 1: he did last week. We're incredible, but he's still not 460 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 1: making the plays with his arm, and I don't think 461 00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,440 Speaker 1: he'll be able to do that kind of running against 462 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:28,880 Speaker 1: a Bill's team that has a great lineback and corps. 463 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 1: And the way the numbers moved to scary me a 464 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 1: little bit. It dropped down to one and a half 465 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:34,920 Speaker 1: and then it bounced back up to two at certain books. 466 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 1: Now it's of the two and a half at certain books. 467 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 1: It's been fluctuating here, but I'm gonna go guess my model. 468 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,239 Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep riding this Bills training where I just 469 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,639 Speaker 1: think Josh Downs turned a corner here. I really have 470 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:46,439 Speaker 1: a ton of faith in this kid that even if 471 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 1: we're down, I think he has enough belief in itself 472 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 1: and his arm and his weapons that he's gonna play 473 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 1: big enough forces. And another game where injuries are a 474 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,399 Speaker 1: little scary. Cold Beasley. He didn't look completely healthy in 475 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,160 Speaker 1: the last game, but he had huge catches on their 476 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 1: downs for them and digs. He looked area in the game, 477 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,680 Speaker 1: but he came to the game probable. And I think 478 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: that's why maybe the early money came in the Ravens, 479 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 1: because they're thinking, yourself, maybe the bills are banged up 480 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,199 Speaker 1: here and we're getting good value on the Ravens. But 481 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 1: I just think that the bills are for real, And 482 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:17,719 Speaker 1: if you believe in the teams for real and you're 483 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 1: getting under a field goal, you have to you have 484 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,919 Speaker 1: to buy in. So I understand why people want to 485 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: take the Ravens. My model likes the Ravens value here. 486 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 1: But I'm gonna do the human on me here and 487 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,119 Speaker 1: think that I believe it. Offen, Josh Allen, I do 488 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 1: think he's gonna win this game. So I'm taking the 489 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 1: bills here. Now where a minute, the bills make me 490 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: want something? Sound, throw your hand something, sound bro your 491 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 1: hand back from all now the bills. I'm making it happen. Now, 492 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: stand up, not com on and shout shouted right now, baby, 493 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:06,479 Speaker 1: come on, come on, come on and shot. Yeah, buffamost happening. 494 00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 1: Now we're on the moon. Now, fills all happen. Now, 495 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 1: we're making it happen. Now The spirit's a lot of spirit. Yeah, 496 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:27,119 Speaker 1: got the spirit? Did happened? Now let's go Bubal. Let's 497 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 1: let's go Bufal. The Bills make me wanna happy, all right. 498 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,320 Speaker 1: So if you had not said anything about your model, 499 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 1: and you would not said anything about the Ravens essentially 500 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 1: making this game pick, I would have been all all 501 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,440 Speaker 1: over the Bills. I'm getting a really good team that's 502 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 1: got great momentum at less than field goal, with a 503 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,600 Speaker 1: quarterback who's on fire, a defense that is getting better, 504 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:03,200 Speaker 1: a lights out siver like great coaching. There's no way 505 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,440 Speaker 1: I wouldn't take this team as less than a field 506 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 1: goal favorite, except that I look at the Ravens and 507 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,919 Speaker 1: think they finally figured it out, Like they got out 508 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 1: of their dull rooms. They remind they remembered who they are. 509 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,679 Speaker 1: Their rushing game is ridiculous. That's a huge problem for 510 00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: the Bills. Despite what you say about their linebackers. The 511 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:28,159 Speaker 1: rushdie is not very good. Like I don't know, I 512 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:29,399 Speaker 1: don't know if I can I don't know if I 513 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:31,680 Speaker 1: can back. This is like one of our five best bets, 514 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,520 Speaker 1: the Bills, because we like the human element and going 515 00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 1: against your model, that is what gets us in trouble. 516 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 1: When we act human, we get in trouble. Ask my kids. 517 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,120 Speaker 1: That's true. But I'm I'm with you on your Ravens point. 518 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 1: But it's still one of those where people think that 519 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,080 Speaker 1: Lamar got his demons out of him. He loses this game. 520 00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 1: Guess what Lamar's record now is in the playoffs. He's 521 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,680 Speaker 1: one in three. So I'm happy for Lamar. I'm happy 522 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,320 Speaker 1: for the Ravens fans, but it sounds like you're buying 523 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:04,640 Speaker 1: to the Ravens team that barely beat a team that 524 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,840 Speaker 1: I think they were ranked in defense, uh in the Titans, 525 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:10,880 Speaker 1: and they put up what's seventeen or twenty on them. 526 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,719 Speaker 1: So I'm just a little nervous here about the Ravens. 527 00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:16,960 Speaker 1: Where I did think Lamar played great, he ran well, 528 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 1: but it was more about Tannehill just let them down 529 00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 1: in that game with the Titans. Like the Titans gonna 530 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,360 Speaker 1: put up twenty points at home. I don't know, man, 531 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,160 Speaker 1: It's it's a little scary. Where the Bills played against 532 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:30,639 Speaker 1: the Colts team that had the perfect game Rivers, I 533 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 1: don't even know. I mean, I think he through for 534 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 1: four and year yards and he never turned the ball over. 535 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,400 Speaker 1: He played that game perfect the Colts and they still 536 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,640 Speaker 1: lost to a Bills team. That's what's giving much confidence 537 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,399 Speaker 1: Pills team. It's like they just took a team's best 538 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 1: shot on defense and offense and they still somehow prevailed 539 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 1: in one of the games. They even play their best games. 540 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,199 Speaker 1: So I'm with you. It's it's we're split on it, 541 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 1: so we won't take it. Uh. But I as a 542 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,240 Speaker 1: Bill's future background, I'm feeling confident right now. And one 543 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 1: more thing before you even move on from that, um, 544 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,480 Speaker 1: if you believe in Green Bay, I'm seeing some books 545 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,680 Speaker 1: that's still green Bay plus one forty to win the NFC. 546 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 1: That seems like crazy value to me. Where they're playing 547 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 1: a banged up Ramps team and then they're either gonna 548 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,320 Speaker 1: get a forty year old Drew Brees or a forty 549 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,959 Speaker 1: year old Tom Brady at home in cold Lambeau. So 550 00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 1: if we're just talking about bets I've made right now 551 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,440 Speaker 1: for little futures, I think there's really good value. It's 552 00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,040 Speaker 1: the Packers there, because I can't see them being underdogs 553 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 1: at home to either of those teams if they win. So, 554 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,400 Speaker 1: if you're getting a plus one forty team right now 555 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 1: at home and the Packers to win it all. I 556 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 1: think they're there's a really good value there the NFC 557 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,480 Speaker 1: to take the Packers to win it. What do you 558 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 1: think of the total total is about forty nine and 559 00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 1: a half fifty under. It's it's uh, I mean this 560 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:49,960 Speaker 1: could be if you want to actually we will save 561 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 1: the big balls, but this will take big balls about 562 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:56,560 Speaker 1: this under because both these offenses are potent. They both 563 00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 1: score at high, high level, and they can both score 564 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,000 Speaker 1: at any time. They have pieces that can score. But 565 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,000 Speaker 1: it was a weird thing where you have to get 566 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 1: the best of number last week with the Bill's Colts 567 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,600 Speaker 1: that they literally came down to half a point. If 568 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 1: you got fifty one and a half, you catch the under. 569 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,080 Speaker 1: If you've got fifty and a half, you catch the over. 570 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,680 Speaker 1: So it's one of those I'll just take the younger 571 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:19,600 Speaker 1: because I think both these defense I know what you said, 572 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,720 Speaker 1: it's true with the Bills can be running on. But 573 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:24,440 Speaker 1: I just take they'll bounce back here and it gets 574 00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,360 Speaker 1: a Ravens team that wants to run the ball, control 575 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 1: the clock, keep Josh Allen off the field. That just 576 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 1: there's just reeks of a low scoring under game where 577 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 1: in my model. I had this at let me look 578 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,760 Speaker 1: at it right now. I had it at twenty two 579 00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:43,800 Speaker 1: to twenty with the bills, so it's it's a weird 580 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 1: one where when I updated it it was at forty 581 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: three forty three. That's why I had the game at 582 00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: a pick like my my motto just did it's gonna 583 00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 1: be a tie. But beforehand I had a forty forty, 584 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 1: which I still think totals I didn't do great on 585 00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:57,880 Speaker 1: last week, I still did pretty good, so I'm still 586 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,320 Speaker 1: using that for my totals. So I'm gonn I roll 587 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 1: with that. I'm gonna take the ender of this week 588 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:06,840 Speaker 1: in this game, Uh you say uh this to me? 589 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 1: Reeks have used the phrase reeks this reeks of Josh 590 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 1: Allen as Lamar Jackson circa January, where everyone in the 591 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,160 Speaker 1: world believes he is unbeatable and he has turned one 592 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 1: dimensional by a crushing Ravens defense that demolished Derrick Henry, 593 00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:33,080 Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, we're asking ourselves, Josh Allen 594 00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,080 Speaker 1: can't get past a good defense in the playoffs after 595 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 1: doing everything he did. I'm just saying, hell, you're just 596 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,280 Speaker 1: a goddamn color. I want to have songs of pitches. 597 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 1: We're afraid to fight standing up this place of honor. 598 00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:49,520 Speaker 1: Hear me. Goddamn god, Wow, how dare you? Matt Mitchell? 599 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:55,160 Speaker 1: How dare this guy? How dare you? How dare you? 600 00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,280 Speaker 1: I know, I know, but listen, I'm gonna root for 601 00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,440 Speaker 1: our futures. It's all we got left because we also, 602 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 1: like our bearest future is dead. Our Steelers futures are dead, 603 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 1: Our Cardinals and Broncos futures are dead, our Vikings future 604 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,640 Speaker 1: is dead. We gotta root for the Bills. Yeah, it's 605 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:13,240 Speaker 1: it's like, honestly, the only the only thing I will 606 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:16,360 Speaker 1: save my season now with my futures aren't even the Bills. 607 00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:19,480 Speaker 1: I need actually the Bucks to somehow come through and 608 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,000 Speaker 1: when it's Super Bowl to save all my futures. Bets 609 00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 1: like that was my just by luck. I bet them 610 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:27,400 Speaker 1: before I went away because I thought Winston was gonna 611 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,000 Speaker 1: be back with them. But I was like, hey, Fife, 612 00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:32,760 Speaker 1: why not throw a little throw a little here on 613 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,520 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. But exactly what you said, man, is I 614 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,720 Speaker 1: dug my I dug myself in the hole here with 615 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 1: these futures, and even the bills, the Bills do prevail, 616 00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:44,360 Speaker 1: it will pay out nice for me, but um, I'm 617 00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,040 Speaker 1: in a weird spot with the Buccaneers. That's that's most 618 00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:51,120 Speaker 1: sports books, that's their biggest liability right now. So I 619 00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 1: pretty much I'm ready to like that ticket on fire 620 00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 1: because we all know the sports book never loses, so 621 00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 1: that's probably dead one there. With the bucks. We will 622 00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:00,280 Speaker 1: have to get into. Uh. I've gotten some in teking 623 00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:02,640 Speaker 1: questions on Twitter, people of DM made just about like 624 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,680 Speaker 1: the lifestyle of professional better and things like that. And 625 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,920 Speaker 1: I think next week, when there's only two games, I 626 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,360 Speaker 1: do want to get into a little bit about hedging 627 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 1: as we head into Championship weekend. If you have Super 628 00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 1: Bowl tickets on any of those teams, like, how do 629 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,600 Speaker 1: you want to think about hedging? And as we get 630 00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 1: into like I want people to hear a little bit 631 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,600 Speaker 1: more about just sort of the lifestyle of professional betting. 632 00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 1: We got our Sunday games, two Sunday games. The first game, 633 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:35,600 Speaker 1: uh mid afternoon the Browns, the resurgent, the inspirational Browns 634 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:39,080 Speaker 1: ten point dogs on the road against the Chiefs. If 635 00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:45,720 Speaker 1: there was ever a time to fade the Browns and smash, smash, 636 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:52,320 Speaker 1: smash the Chiefs, it is this weekend. Big Balls better 637 00:32:52,400 --> 00:33:01,000 Speaker 1: the week, big balls, better the week, And for saying yourself, 638 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:03,000 Speaker 1: how how does this take balls? That bet the Chiefs 639 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,719 Speaker 1: because no one believes in the Chiefs right now. They 640 00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 1: haven't covered and what seems like two months, they haven't 641 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,160 Speaker 1: played a football game now in three weeks, Andy read 642 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,720 Speaker 1: off of bye, that's it, That's all you need to say, 643 00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 1: Andy Reid Off of bye. Andy, you had a cheeseburger 644 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:23,360 Speaker 1: in celebration of the a f C championship games. That true, 645 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:27,160 Speaker 1: I did a good one, just one stick. I can't 646 00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,600 Speaker 1: see this Brown's team that we know what their defenses. 647 00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,560 Speaker 1: Their defenses, they can get a turnover too. They have 648 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 1: a chance to win or cover a game if they 649 00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,560 Speaker 1: don't get any turnovers. That defense is horrible. They don't 650 00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:41,760 Speaker 1: have anyone that can stop a good offense. And we 651 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,320 Speaker 1: saw Ben Roethlisberger, who can't throw the ball deep. What 652 00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,400 Speaker 1: do you put up thirty nine points? I forgot how 653 00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 1: many points the end up with. But Pittsburgh, they kind 654 00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,360 Speaker 1: of showed the blueprint of what every team is done 655 00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:52,680 Speaker 1: to the Browns this year, which is you can just 656 00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,240 Speaker 1: pass on them. So well, you just said they're gonna 657 00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:56,800 Speaker 1: be a square Dog of the Week. I mean, I'm 658 00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:58,600 Speaker 1: a little scared. We'll talk about the Bucks team that 659 00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:00,160 Speaker 1: might be the square dog two of the week. But 660 00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,200 Speaker 1: this is just one of these games where the public 661 00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:03,880 Speaker 1: exactly what you're saying. They're thinking of. The Browns are 662 00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,280 Speaker 1: team of dustiny. Now after that last game, a game 663 00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:08,360 Speaker 1: that I honestly gave him no chance to win, and 664 00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,520 Speaker 1: they really showed up as a team, and Baker played 665 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:15,120 Speaker 1: well in that game. He made big throws. I cannot 666 00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,240 Speaker 1: do it. I cannot back the Browns here against Patrick Mahomes. 667 00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:20,560 Speaker 1: And we talked last year when I came on the show, 668 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,200 Speaker 1: I kept I kept giving out the Chiefs at a 669 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,799 Speaker 1: high number. I think it was Houston. They played in 670 00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:27,799 Speaker 1: the Titans, and both times I said I had them 671 00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:31,000 Speaker 1: at I think the Houston had him in minus fourteen. 672 00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:34,080 Speaker 1: And we saw happened in that game. They came back 673 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,239 Speaker 1: and they scored fifty four straight points. And the final 674 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:39,000 Speaker 1: week against the Titans, which was a public dog. Everyone 675 00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,720 Speaker 1: loved the Titans after they had just upset the Ravens 676 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 1: and just beat the Patriots. I think that line was 677 00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:47,279 Speaker 1: I think it was plus a plus nine, and it 678 00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,000 Speaker 1: got bet down to like seven and seven and a 679 00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:52,600 Speaker 1: half um for the Titans. The Chiefs beat him by eleven. 680 00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:56,000 Speaker 1: So it's another one of those weeks where I think 681 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:57,520 Speaker 1: a lot of sharps are actually gonna come in on 682 00:34:57,560 --> 00:34:59,919 Speaker 1: the Chiefs here, and they're gonna trust any read's gonna 683 00:34:59,960 --> 00:35:02,240 Speaker 1: have these guys right. Maybe the Browns is a smart 684 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:04,520 Speaker 1: first half. Bet you can bet that the Chiefs come 685 00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:06,919 Speaker 1: out slow and sloppy. But I think once the Chiefs 686 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:08,759 Speaker 1: are getting in a groove, I don't think they're gonna 687 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 1: take the foe off the gas like they did there 688 00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,000 Speaker 1: in the regular season. I think they're gonna kill these guys. 689 00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,279 Speaker 1: So I'm with you, this is one of these I'd 690 00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:18,759 Speaker 1: happily put in with the Chiefs. Chiefs, by the way, Uh, 691 00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:21,959 Speaker 1: you're right in your assessment. I'm looking at the data 692 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:27,040 Speaker 1: right now in the Action network gap the Betts, that 693 00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:30,040 Speaker 1: is the public coming in on the Browns as ten 694 00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:35,960 Speaker 1: point dogs of the money, the professionals coming in on 695 00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,480 Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs and signing we are nothing if 696 00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:43,160 Speaker 1: not professionals. The total in this game and a half. 697 00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:46,040 Speaker 1: You get an opinion, Yeah, I gotta take the under 698 00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,840 Speaker 1: here again where we've seen the Chiefs they wanted to 699 00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,560 Speaker 1: try to run the ball more bulk control, and we 700 00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:54,439 Speaker 1: know what that the brown staples. So I could see 701 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:56,760 Speaker 1: the public coming in on the over because the Browns 702 00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:58,920 Speaker 1: they can give up so many points and the Chiefs 703 00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,520 Speaker 1: that can score out of point in spot. I have 704 00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:05,440 Speaker 1: to do the under I just I just can't see 705 00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,520 Speaker 1: this kind of game script where either the team is 706 00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:09,360 Speaker 1: gonna want to be playing fast. I think both of 707 00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,320 Speaker 1: them want to keep each team's offense off the field. 708 00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:15,359 Speaker 1: So I like to underhear at that number. Alright, last 709 00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,640 Speaker 1: game on the slate, we had talked about this Sunday 710 00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:22,359 Speaker 1: night in our instant reaction video. The Bucks are three 711 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,879 Speaker 1: and a half point dogs at the Saints. Right now 712 00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:27,120 Speaker 1: it opened it four, got down to three. Now it's 713 00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,600 Speaker 1: a three and a half. Uh, you were right about 714 00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:31,319 Speaker 1: this one too. You just said you thought that the 715 00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:34,600 Speaker 1: box might be the public dog of the week. They 716 00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,400 Speaker 1: are getting fifty eight percent of the bets. The flip 717 00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:41,840 Speaker 1: side is that unlike the Browns Chiefs, where the majority 718 00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,200 Speaker 1: of the promont the pros are betting on the Chiefs, 719 00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 1: you're also getting a majority of the money on the 720 00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:51,239 Speaker 1: box in this scenario. Um, do we still like the 721 00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 1: box at plus three? And a half. Yeah, it's interesting 722 00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 1: that it went back from three up to three and 723 00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:01,439 Speaker 1: a half. Again. Uh, a little scary because that's usually 724 00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,200 Speaker 1: a sign on them telling you that, uh, some pro 725 00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:05,960 Speaker 1: group has a good read here on the Saints and 726 00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:09,480 Speaker 1: the books trust in that group. But it's it is. 727 00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,640 Speaker 1: This is an interesting weekend. Man. We have the NFC 728 00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,560 Speaker 1: with all the old guard quarterbacks. We've got two quarterbacks 729 00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:19,319 Speaker 1: plaining in their forties Rodgers what And then you go 730 00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:22,040 Speaker 1: over the FC and the oldest quarterbacks Baker what is 731 00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:26,279 Speaker 1: he like? So it's interesting looking at this where it's 732 00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:31,480 Speaker 1: just two different splits here where we're looking at a 733 00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:33,120 Speaker 1: time of just not the change in the guard. But 734 00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,440 Speaker 1: it's just it's just funny how the league just evolves 735 00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,880 Speaker 1: and change. And looking at this game again where the 736 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:41,759 Speaker 1: Bucks and the Saints it's the third time they've seen 737 00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,279 Speaker 1: each other now and we talked, like you said on 738 00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:46,719 Speaker 1: Sunday night where I just thought this number should just 739 00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 1: be three, that it's one of those where you give 740 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:51,960 Speaker 1: respect to the Saints for what they've done this year 741 00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:55,480 Speaker 1: and the text that they beat the Buccaneers twice. And 742 00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:57,560 Speaker 1: I had this number in my model of two and 743 00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:00,399 Speaker 1: a half because obviously I've taken a little to points 744 00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,000 Speaker 1: away from the Saints here just because they have no 745 00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:08,120 Speaker 1: fans in the stadium. And I everything we've seen from 746 00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:12,319 Speaker 1: the Saints that that Browns gave them a gift him 747 00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:15,000 Speaker 1: him dropping that ball there in the end zone where 748 00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:18,279 Speaker 1: Mitch Robinsky might only make four great throws in a game, 749 00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:19,840 Speaker 1: and that was one of the great throws that was 750 00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:23,960 Speaker 1: literally right through his arms in their bread basket. And 751 00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:26,680 Speaker 1: the Saints got away with the one. It felt like 752 00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:28,640 Speaker 1: they got away with one there with the Bears, the 753 00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:31,680 Speaker 1: Bears defense saying at you one. They showed up in 754 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:37,080 Speaker 1: that game. And I can't see the Buccaneers having back 755 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,600 Speaker 1: to back just sloppy games because I don't think they 756 00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,120 Speaker 1: played well against the Watchington game. I watched that game twice. Now, 757 00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,680 Speaker 1: we had our opportunities, but Brady just played a flawless game. 758 00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:47,560 Speaker 1: He never gave an opportunity to turn the ball over. 759 00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:48,920 Speaker 1: He got sacked a couple of times. I think he 760 00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,040 Speaker 1: had three or four sacks against him, but he never 761 00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:54,120 Speaker 1: gave the ball away. And what I've seen from from 762 00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:56,480 Speaker 1: Drew Brees here is he's willing to throw a couple 763 00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:58,279 Speaker 1: of risky paths here, and he doesn't have the stream 764 00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:01,839 Speaker 1: arm strength on his arm. And I just like it 765 00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,320 Speaker 1: that we're getting three and a half still with the Buccaneers. 766 00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:06,640 Speaker 1: I know it's a square pick, but to me, this 767 00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,040 Speaker 1: is just a smart smart side here, and I'm gonna 768 00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:10,960 Speaker 1: ask you to be my companion and take that three 769 00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,680 Speaker 1: and a half with me. I am going to be 770 00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:18,120 Speaker 1: your companion because we are walking into a hornet's nest, brother, 771 00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:23,239 Speaker 1: and we are taking the public dog Tampa Bay Buccaneers 772 00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:28,440 Speaker 1: at plus three and a half. Be my companion. I'm 773 00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,680 Speaker 1: walking to a fucking hornets nest, all right now, Be 774 00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:34,879 Speaker 1: my companion. If it doesn't move like if this, if 775 00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,120 Speaker 1: this number doesn't look back to three or goes up 776 00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,319 Speaker 1: to four, we're gonna talk because like then I'll have 777 00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:41,400 Speaker 1: to be like, Okay, I gotta reach out to some 778 00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:43,440 Speaker 1: people and hear what they're reading on this game, because 779 00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:45,600 Speaker 1: this just feels like a no brainer to mean that 780 00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:48,960 Speaker 1: you should be three and it is. It is scary 781 00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,120 Speaker 1: that they're moving against the public here with us, but 782 00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:54,359 Speaker 1: the public can't lose both weeks through ow can they chat? 783 00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:57,560 Speaker 1: So hopefully they hopefully they get a game right here 784 00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:59,600 Speaker 1: for us. What do we think of the total here? 785 00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:03,120 Speaker 1: Fifty one and a half fifty two and this is 786 00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,440 Speaker 1: gonna be already talked to a bunch of sharps and 787 00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:08,320 Speaker 1: they told me they pounded this game under. Um, I 788 00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:09,960 Speaker 1: don't know what the money stayed on your site, but 789 00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:16,000 Speaker 1: like these guys I talked about like the under right now, 790 00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:18,279 Speaker 1: and I think seriously it might be three guys. I 791 00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:20,279 Speaker 1: know because they're like big money betters. They don't make 792 00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,839 Speaker 1: a lot of bets, and each of them Sunday Night 793 00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:25,680 Speaker 1: said heavy, heavy bet on the under in this game. 794 00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,960 Speaker 1: But I'm leaning the other side right now. I got 795 00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,080 Speaker 1: burned in that Bears game because Mitch didn't show up. 796 00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,399 Speaker 1: But I still think the Saints defense can give up points. 797 00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:38,400 Speaker 1: I still think they're susceptible a good offense. And we 798 00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:41,520 Speaker 1: just saw the Buckingheers get how many points? Did uh 799 00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:43,799 Speaker 1: the the Washington to get twenty or twenty one or 800 00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,799 Speaker 1: I forget the number one? The Yeah, like they were 801 00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:50,319 Speaker 1: able to score on this Buck's defense. So I'm gonna 802 00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,480 Speaker 1: go against my my, my brother in here. I'm gonna 803 00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:55,880 Speaker 1: take take the over here, but it's scary, so I 804 00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:59,080 Speaker 1: won't put it as our best five. But man, that 805 00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:02,600 Speaker 1: that's that's crazy. Easy money's coming down the under right now. 806 00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:10,440 Speaker 1: That is nuts, nuts of the money coming in on 807 00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:13,520 Speaker 1: the under. All right, So here's what we like right now. 808 00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:17,640 Speaker 1: We like the Los Angeles Rams plus six and a half. 809 00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:21,560 Speaker 1: We're hoping for plus seven. We like the under forty 810 00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:25,480 Speaker 1: five and a half. We like the Buffalo Bills. You 811 00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:27,399 Speaker 1: kind of like the Buffalo Bills at two and a half. 812 00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:31,000 Speaker 1: Like we're split. I like the Ravens and plus two 813 00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:35,640 Speaker 1: and a half. We both the big balls better the week. 814 00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:42,400 Speaker 1: We love love the Kansas City Chiefs minus ten. We 815 00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:44,479 Speaker 1: also like the under fifty five and a half there. 816 00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:48,960 Speaker 1: And then finally, we are aligned as the public dog 817 00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:55,160 Speaker 1: on the um Tampa Bay Buccaneers and we like that 818 00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,400 Speaker 1: at three and a half. You like the under fifty 819 00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:00,600 Speaker 1: one and a half fifty two in that game, even 820 00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:06,640 Speaker 1: though the professionals are pounding, pounding, pounding the under in 821 00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:09,640 Speaker 1: that game, you lack the over. We'll talk later on, 822 00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:11,680 Speaker 1: but yeah, once we do the Super Bowl, I'm sure 823 00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,279 Speaker 1: we'll do a Super Bowl recapture after. I'll try to 824 00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:15,920 Speaker 1: do the same thing where I'm just giving out fifty 825 00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:19,240 Speaker 1: to one long shot odds on Super Bowl guys, because 826 00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:20,920 Speaker 1: that's what you're looking for. You you want to have 827 00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:23,440 Speaker 1: these huge long shots that you can just hedge. And 828 00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:25,520 Speaker 1: we'll talk more, like you said next week about hedging. 829 00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:28,319 Speaker 1: That's what my main job is right now, is like 830 00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:31,920 Speaker 1: to help people hedge in these playoffs with their futures. 831 00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:35,440 Speaker 1: Uh depends when you got it. But the bills were 832 00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:38,759 Speaker 1: to one or twenty two to one after the super Bowl, 833 00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:42,319 Speaker 1: so we'll break it down. But like usually, I do 834 00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:45,560 Speaker 1: love to do a bunch of Super Bowl futures right 835 00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:47,560 Speaker 1: before I leave for a vacation for a month. So 836 00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:50,680 Speaker 1: we'll definitely break that down, buddy, after the super Bowl 837 00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:58,160 Speaker 1: hundred percent. All right, we gotta give away some money. Okay, 838 00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:01,359 Speaker 1: we're gonna give aways some money. We're gonna announce the 839 00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:06,120 Speaker 1: winner of last week's phrase the Pays. But a reminder, 840 00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,960 Speaker 1: we are doing it again. The winner will earn a 841 00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:12,080 Speaker 1: hundred dollars for every win Simon and I have this week. 842 00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:15,719 Speaker 1: We will match that number with a donation to the 843 00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:20,279 Speaker 1: winner's favorite charity. To be eligible, listen up to be eligible, 844 00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:25,560 Speaker 1: go follow at the Favorite Pod. Send us your submission 845 00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:29,520 Speaker 1: for the player who broke your heart this past wild 846 00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:32,960 Speaker 1: Card weekend. Got a tag at the favorite pod in 847 00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:36,880 Speaker 1: your tweet, gotta follow at the favorite pod, Matt Mitchfield 848 00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:41,000 Speaker 1: will sift through the submissions randomly choose the winner. You 849 00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:45,840 Speaker 1: will win the money the winner of last week's phrase 850 00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:53,719 Speaker 1: that pays contest the Somber Shuffle at Terrero Drizzle. That's 851 00:43:53,760 --> 00:44:00,000 Speaker 1: at t O R E r O Drizzle. The favorite 852 00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:05,279 Speaker 1: spot my NFL gambling m v P. Aside from at 853 00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:09,600 Speaker 1: Simon Hunter ten helping me more than double my bank 854 00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:14,000 Speaker 1: roll is Kyler Murray hit him and the Cardinals hard 855 00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:19,040 Speaker 1: for early Winds, transition to fade garbage, Cliff Kingsbury and 856 00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:21,840 Speaker 1: beat up Kyler to end the year. I feel like 857 00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,120 Speaker 1: this person. Also, it was a shout out to old 858 00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:28,480 Speaker 1: boy uncle Mitch Matt Mitchell producer because he was on 859 00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:31,719 Speaker 1: the anti Cliff Kingsbury train doing videos about how much 860 00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:39,360 Speaker 1: he hated Cliff Kingsbury. Cliff Kingsbury, So congrats at Terrero 861 00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:43,400 Speaker 1: Drizzle the Somber Shuffle. Reach out to Matt dot Mitchell 862 00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:50,480 Speaker 1: at Action Network to get your prize. Simon another week 863 00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:53,040 Speaker 1: in the books, my friend. Yeah, it sounds like a 864 00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:54,800 Speaker 1: sharp list and I wish we could have got more money. 865 00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,560 Speaker 1: But this week I wish I'd give a guarantee of 866 00:44:57,560 --> 00:44:59,200 Speaker 1: a five and oh, but I'm gonna guarantee a three 867 00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:01,400 Speaker 1: and two. I feel a good winning week here. I 868 00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:05,280 Speaker 1: like these numbers. So whoever wins this week, I promise 869 00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:07,920 Speaker 1: you it'll be better than It'll be better than a hundred. 870 00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:11,359 Speaker 1: It can't. It can literally only be one game worse 871 00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:16,319 Speaker 1: than last week. So so we can only do as 872 00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:20,239 Speaker 1: bad or even better. That's the beauty. As for Sign 873 00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:23,680 Speaker 1: the Hunter at Simon Hunter Tan, I am Shad Milman. 874 00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:27,320 Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Action Network downloader 875 00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,080 Speaker 1: to Apple podcasting, Spotify. Wherever did you get your podcast? 876 00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:32,600 Speaker 1: Until next time, I Love you