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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for joining us here on Bloomberg TV and radio.

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Speaker 2: To think that there are still yellow cake manufacturing facilities

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Speaker 2: in Iran to hit is quite remarkable, as both sides

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Speaker 2: continue lobbing missiles here even though the President has extended

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Speaker 2: the ultimatum. It was big news last evening as we

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Speaker 2: came to air on the late edition of Balance of

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Speaker 2: Power and additional ten days. This came about on Truth

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Speaker 2: Social the President saying that things are going very well.

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Speaker 2: Talk's going very well with Tehran and therefore the extension.

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Speaker 2: In fact, he put his own voice to this in

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Speaker 2: an interview on Fox News last evening. The decision to

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Speaker 2: go for ten even though Iran didn't even ask for

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Speaker 2: that much of a timeline. According to the President, here's

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Speaker 2: what he said.

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Speaker 3: I gave them a ten day period. They asked for seven.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna say, oh, Trump's a terrible negotiator. They asked

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Speaker 3: for seven, and I said, I'm going to give you

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Speaker 3: ten because they gave me ships. We talked about the

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Speaker 3: eight chips, you know, the president that I talked about

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Speaker 3: the other day. But they asked for seven and they

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Speaker 3: gave them ten. You got ten days, and they were

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Speaker 3: very thankful about that.

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Speaker 2: They have been thankful, but the market not so much.

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Speaker 2: As we just heard from Charlie. Each attempt the President

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Speaker 2: has made here to soothe markets, to lower the temperature,

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Speaker 2: to extend the ultimatum, as we've already seen a couple

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Speaker 2: of times now have gone over pretty well. Markets are

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Speaker 2: not responding that way this time. As we know, this

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Speaker 2: will be underway for at least another ten days. And

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Speaker 2: when you look at the price of oil here, it's

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Speaker 2: not reassuring. In New York, WTI selling for ninety eight

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Speaker 2: seventy hour, up almost four and a half percent, getting

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Speaker 2: closer to one hundred dollars a bait for West Texas

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Speaker 2: Brent crewed one hundred eleven dollars right now of three percent,

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Speaker 2: the Vics approaching thirty and of course you know the

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Speaker 2: risk off mood for stocks with a ten year now

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Speaker 2: yielding four forty one thirty year at four ninety five

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Speaker 2: and a market that's not in a good mood nasdak

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Speaker 2: in correction territory, as Charlie Pellett told us. And the

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Speaker 2: S and P five hundred is back below the two

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Speaker 2: hundred day right where we were last Friday when the

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Speaker 2: President again attempted to sue the markets and it worked

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Speaker 2: that time. It's feeling different right now. As Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: speaks to farmers on the South Lawn, we bring you

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Speaker 2: to the North Lawn for a conversation with Bloomberg White

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Speaker 2: House correspondent Courtney Supermanian who's following all of these storylines.

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Speaker 2: In Courtney, we welcome you back to Balance of Power.

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Speaker 2: It's great to have you here on a Friday. The

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Speaker 2: President is going to be speaking again a bit later.

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Speaker 2: He's got an appointment in Miami to be speaking before

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Speaker 2: an investment conference. But is this it? Investors are looking

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Speaker 2: for more tangible information as we go into another weekend

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Speaker 2: of uncertainty. What are we hearing from the administration.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the President continues to strike this very positive tone

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Speaker 4: about the talks, right. He keeps saying the talks are

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Speaker 4: going very well, which is why he has agreed to

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Speaker 4: extend the deadline, push it by ten days. This, of course,

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Speaker 4: the big question is, you know, is this him actually

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Speaker 4: you know, allowing time for the talks to continue, or

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Speaker 4: is he just buying time to amass more troops in

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Speaker 4: the region before a potential ground invasion, or should he

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Speaker 4: decide to take over carg Island, which of course is

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Speaker 4: important to Iran's oil exports. So there is a lot

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Speaker 4: of uncertainty, and as you and I both know, the

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Speaker 4: president likes to make these decisions, these big military decisions.

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Speaker 4: On the weekend. He is headed to Miami, as you said,

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Speaker 4: so we should hear from him later and hopefully get

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Speaker 4: a bit more about what he's thinking about doing this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Well, certainly we're going to be all ears, and I

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Speaker 2: suspect he couldn't talk to reporters, including yourself, when he

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Speaker 2: leaves a little bit later on to go to Miami. Courtney.

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Speaker 2: It's been interesting watching this. Of course, we remember what

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Speaker 2: happened after Liberation Day, but even just in the last week.

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Speaker 2: It was a week ago today when he dropped the

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Speaker 2: forty eight hour ultimatum, right he was going to obliterate

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Speaker 2: the company's power plants. Then of course, markets freaked out,

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Speaker 2: and the President on Monday issued a new five day

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Speaker 2: timeline that pulled everybody back from the ledge. We felt

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Speaker 2: better about things now we got the ten day extension.

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Speaker 2: Since that does not seem to be soothing markets. Do

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Speaker 2: you suspect we might hear from the President again with

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Speaker 2: more calming words when he leaves the White House later

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Speaker 2: on or in a truth social post. You know how

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Speaker 2: concerned he's been about these markets lately, with a lot

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Speaker 2: of worry on Wall Street.

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Speaker 4: I think that's right. I think we should hear from

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Speaker 4: him either before he leaves the White House today or

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Speaker 4: before you know, he may speak on the plane on

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Speaker 4: the way to Miami this evening. I'm sure he'll address

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Speaker 4: the war later tonight in his remarks in Miami as well.

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Speaker 4: But as you again, as you and I both know,

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Speaker 4: he is watching very closely, and they are projecting just

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Speaker 4: the most optimistic attitude about these talks, even though both

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Speaker 4: sides remain pretty far apart. We know that Aroan rejected

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Speaker 4: the fifteen point proposal that the US put forth through

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Speaker 4: intermediaries in Pakistan, and they put forth their own demands

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Speaker 4: five conditions that, of course, we don't think the US

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Speaker 4: would agree to, which includes sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

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Speaker 4: So again, it's unclear exactly how these two can meet

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Speaker 4: when they remain so far apart. But I'm sure we'll

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Speaker 4: hear from the President later today about, you know, his

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Speaker 4: efforts to again try and soothe those markets as we

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Speaker 4: head into the weekend.

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Speaker 2: Just lastly, Courtney, we just ran a headline the US

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Speaker 2: signaling to allies no immediate plans for an Iran invasion,

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Speaker 2: and we saw a report today in the Wall Street

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Speaker 2: Journal that the Pentagon is looking at considering sending up

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Speaker 2: to ten thousand additional ground troops to the Middle East.

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Speaker 2: Is the White House acknowledging or denying that.

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Speaker 4: You know, they continue to say publicly that this is

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Speaker 4: a decision that rests with the President alone, But we

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Speaker 4: do know I know from speaking to some of the

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Speaker 4: President's administration officials, that he wants options. He wants to

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Speaker 4: be able to have the ability to move on a

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Speaker 4: ground invasion if that's something he decides to do. And

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Speaker 4: so they are weighing all their options, and that includes

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Speaker 4: deploying thousands of troops to the region. And I think

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Speaker 4: we'll continue to see.

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Speaker 2: That Courtney's Supermanian Live at the White House. It's always

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Speaker 2: a pleasure to have you, Courtney. We appreciate it very much.

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Speaker 2: Reporting for Bloomberg at sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. I want

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Speaker 2: to add the voice of Evo. I was delighted to

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Speaker 2: hear that the former ambassador to NATO was joining us today.

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Speaker 2: This brings us back to the Obama administration now senior

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Speaker 2: fellow at the Harvard Belfer Center. Mister ambassador, welcome back

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Speaker 2: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm deeply curious to hear

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Speaker 2: your thoughts today as the President drops this additional ten

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Speaker 2: days on the ultimatum. Do you think this is an

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Speaker 2: opportunity to let talks breathe or to actually prompt them

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Speaker 2: to begin.

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Speaker 5: Yes, and yes, also putting more escalation options into the hopper.

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Speaker 5: The problem here seems to be that the President is

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Speaker 5: kind of losing the thread about what it is that

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Speaker 5: we're trying to achieve here. Why did we go to

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Speaker 5: war in the first place. All the focus is now

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Speaker 5: on opening up the strait of her Moose. Of course,

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Speaker 5: the strait of her Moose was open on February twenty eighth,

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Speaker 5: when the bombing started it was a consequence of the bombing.

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Speaker 5: It was a foreseeable consequence of the bombing. But somehow

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Speaker 5: the President and his advisors didn't do the planning and

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Speaker 5: didn't take into account the need to ensure that the

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Speaker 5: Strait was going to be open. So we're in a

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Speaker 5: new ballgame, and we're trying to figure out a way.

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Speaker 5: The President is trying to figure out a way to

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Speaker 5: get out of it, and it is through some negotiated solution,

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Speaker 5: because other than occupying Iran and taking over the government

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Speaker 5: and having a government that is more conducive to American persuasion, it's.

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Speaker 2: Got to be a deal.

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Speaker 5: Some deal has to be struck in which Iran agrees

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Speaker 5: to no longer threaten shipping through the Strait. And right

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Speaker 5: now the table seemed to be turned to some extent

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Speaker 5: where Iran holds, to use the President's favorite phrase, the cards.

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Speaker 5: Iran is the one that is keeping the Straight closed.

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Speaker 5: It is opening it up for those who are willing

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Speaker 5: to pay it sufficient amount of money, or its friends,

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Speaker 5: but it's keeping the Straight close to those it doesn't like.

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Speaker 5: And the President is running out of options to figure

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Speaker 5: out how to do this. Militarily threatening, in my view,

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Speaker 5: in order to see if we can get a deal

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Speaker 5: that at least achieves some of the objectives that were

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Speaker 5: set when we started the bombing campaign back four weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: Now, yeah, but this isn't a surprise, though, right, Ambassador.

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Speaker 2: Isn't this In every model that the Pentagon has ever

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Speaker 2: had about a potential conflict with the run, the first

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Speaker 2: thing they would do is close the straight Everyone in

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Speaker 2: the energy market knew this, right. Yeah, it's not a surprise.

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Speaker 5: But apparently he was a surprise for the President of

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Speaker 5: the United States, who decided to engage in a second

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Speaker 5: bombing campaign. Remember, he already did so in June of

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty five when he said he obliterated the nuclear program.

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Speaker 5: He did so without paying attention. He was warned about this.

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Speaker 5: I think it's reporting in the New York Times by

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Speaker 5: the chairman who Joint chiefs of Staff, Dan Kine, who

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Speaker 5: said that this is a possible And he said, oh,

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Speaker 5: I'm not worried about that. Our military. You're a military,

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Speaker 5: so good, we can take care of it. What we

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Speaker 5: see here is a president and this happens to other presidents.

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Speaker 5: It happens. It happened to George W. Bush after Afghanistan.

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Speaker 5: It's happened before they become enamored with the military tool.

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Speaker 5: Our military's extraordinary. It's the best military in the world

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Speaker 5: that can do things that no other military can do.

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Speaker 5: But it can't do everything through military force. And we

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Speaker 5: know that from Afghanistan, we know that from Vietnam, we

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Speaker 5: know it from Iraq. But somehow, because Venezuela, the bombing

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Speaker 5: campaign against Iran and June went so well, the President

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Speaker 5: assumed that we could just change the regime with a

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Speaker 5: bit of bombing and things would be fine.

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Speaker 2: Well turned out.

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Speaker 5: That, as military strategist like to say, the enemy has

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Speaker 5: a vote, and in this case, the vote was to

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Speaker 5: close the straight or mose and they didn't prepare for it.

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Speaker 2: The enemy has a vote in Iran is not Venezuela. Ambassador.

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Speaker 2: I want to ask you about NATO. It's potential involvement

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Speaker 2: or lack thereof. This is something that President's been talking

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Speaker 2: about a lot, as recently as yesterday in the cabinet meeting.

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Speaker 2: Listened to what Donald Trump said one thing. We're very disappointed.

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Speaker 6: I'll say it publicly, We're very disappointed with NATO because

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Speaker 6: NATO has done absolutely nothing. And I've always said twenty

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Speaker 6: five years ago. I mean, I was somebody that wasn't

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Speaker 6: a politician, but I was always involved in politics, and

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Speaker 6: I understood politics. I said twenty five years ago that

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Speaker 6: NATO's a paper tiger, but more importantly, that we'll come

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Speaker 6: to their rescue, but they will never come to ours.

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Speaker 2: President has called NATO a paper tiger. There he is

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Speaker 2: called NATO cowards for not joining him in the Strait.

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Speaker 2: NATO is talking as well, though. We just heard from

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Speaker 2: the Chancellor of Germany again. Chancellor Mary is saying the

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Speaker 2: US and Israel have no strategy in the war on

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Speaker 2: Iran and says German contribution in resolving the crisis is

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Speaker 2: an option. Interestingly, here, as Marco Rubio urges maximum partner

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Speaker 2: contributions from G seven nations over Iran, distill this forest

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Speaker 2: ambassador to the point where the Chancellor is compelled to

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Speaker 2: speak like this publicly. What is the conversation between the

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Speaker 2: White House and our NATO allies right now?

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Speaker 5: Well, I'm not sure there's much of a conversation other

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Speaker 5: than perhaps Mark Rubio talking to his G seven counterparts

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Speaker 5: in Paris. I mean, let me make two points number one,

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Speaker 5: twenty five years ago to the United States was attacked

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Speaker 5: by al Qaeda, and for the first and only time, NATO,

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Speaker 5: at the behest of not of the United States, but

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Speaker 5: of its allies, invoked Article five, which is the Collective

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Speaker 5: Defense provision of the North Atlantic Treaty, saying that an

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Speaker 5: armed attack against one shall be regarded as an armed

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Speaker 5: attack against all. Not only did they invoke Article five,

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Speaker 5: they deployed massive amounts tens of thousands of troops to Afghanistan.

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Speaker 5: Our allies lost well over a thousand troops in a war.

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Speaker 5: So for the President of the United States to say

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Speaker 5: today that NATO doesn't do anything for the United States,

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Speaker 5: that NATO is never they are for us, when in

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Speaker 5: fact the twenty five years he invokes was the time

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Speaker 5: frame in which NATO did that is frankly obscene, and

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Speaker 5: it is regarded by Europeans as obscene because they lost

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Speaker 5: troops to defend the United States and the United States

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Speaker 5: security interest, not because they thought it was important for

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Speaker 5: their security, but they thought it was important for America security.

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Speaker 5: And that's what allies do. Number two, NATO is a

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Speaker 5: defensive alliance. It responds to an armed attack on it.

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Speaker 5: There is no armed attack on NATO. The only attack

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Speaker 5: that occurred was an Israeli u AS attack on Iran,

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Speaker 5: which many, in fact, I would say most Europeans regard

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Speaker 5: as illegal under international law, unnecessary given that the diplomacy

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Speaker 5: was still a possibility, and reckless in ignoring the outcome

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Speaker 5: that could have happened, and I think Chancellor Meritz is

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Speaker 5: expressing that. So under those circumstances, to say that this

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Speaker 5: was quote a test for NATO, or second that NATO

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Speaker 5: is a paper tigers never willing to do anything, is

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Speaker 5: frankly beside the point, and it's not going to work,

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Speaker 5: and it's not going to lead NATO countries to deploy

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Speaker 5: the forces. Now, if hostilities had ended, there probably is

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Speaker 5: going to be a European contribution to helping to keep

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Speaker 5: the strait open or even to open it. After all,

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Speaker 5: NATO European countries have capabilities to the United States no

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Speaker 5: longer has, like minesweepers. And finally, just to point out,

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Speaker 5: NATO basis in Germany in other countries are being used

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Speaker 5: every single day to facilitate the ability of the United

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Speaker 5: States to conduct this work. Without NATO, Without Europe, the

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Speaker 5: United States couldn't be doing what it's doing today.

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Speaker 2: Well, what would happen. If every NATO nation with the

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Speaker 2: ship showed up when the President initially asked them to

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Speaker 2: an advance of the strikes, would that have made the difference.

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Speaker 2: The President says, you need volume, you need scale to

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Speaker 2: reopen the Straight. If we showed up with all of

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Speaker 2: our NATO allies, would the Straight be open?

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Speaker 5: Ambassador, Well, if you hadn't bombed, the strait would be open.

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Speaker 5: And I think that's the fundamental point. The Strait was open.

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Speaker 5: It was closed because of the bombing. I think if

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Speaker 5: there had been consultations with the European nations, as indeed

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Speaker 5: there was prior to the Iraq War, deep consultations although

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Speaker 5: Europe was divided, NATO was divided, that we might have

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Speaker 5: come up with a strategy to say, how do we

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Speaker 5: put maximum pressure on Iran to achieve what we want

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Speaker 5: to achieve, which is a Neuran that does not have

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Speaker 5: nuclear weapons, which, by the way, it doesn't and it

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Speaker 5: hasn't had nuclear weapons in part because of negotiations, in

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Speaker 5: part because of sanctions, in part because of pressure, but

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Speaker 5: certainly because of diplomacy, that it reduces its ballistic missile

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Speaker 5: inventory and that it cuts its support for proxies. We

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Speaker 5: could have had a joint strategy. That's not what the

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Speaker 5: President of the United States did. He worked it out

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Speaker 5: with the Israeli government. He ignored pleas and from the

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Speaker 5: Golf allies who said, do not do this because it

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Speaker 5: is going to affect our security, as indeed it has,

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Speaker 5: and he failed to even talk to our major allies,

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Speaker 5: both in Asia and in Europe. So as a result,

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Speaker 5: the Europeans and the Asian allies said, we're suffering the

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Speaker 5: consequences for a decision we had no input in, and

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Speaker 5: now you're asking us to solve it with.

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Speaker 2: The diplomat's perspective. Evo Dhalder, the former US ambassador to

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Speaker 2: NATO and the Obama administration senior fellow Harvard Belfer Center,

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Speaker 2: Mister ambassador, it's always great to compare notes. We appreciate

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Speaker 2: your insights. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll

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Speaker 2: have much more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for joining us on the Friday edition here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio, with our eyes on Iran

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Speaker 2: and a market that's having more fits today, not unlike

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Speaker 2: the same situation we were in a week ago today,

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Speaker 2: remembering that is when the President dropped the ultimatum. It

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Speaker 2: was Friday, the forty eight hour ultimatum, and he climbed back,

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Speaker 2: knowing that the markets were in a bit of a

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Speaker 2: tizzy going into that weekend, saying we're getting very close

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Speaker 2: to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down, remember

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Speaker 2: winding down our great military efforts in the Middle East

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Speaker 2: with respect to the terrorist regime of Iran. We had

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Speaker 2: the forty eight hour ultimatum, became a five day ultimatum,

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Speaker 2: now a ten day ultimatum on top of that, and

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Speaker 2: each attempt to climb down corresponded with an uptick in

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Speaker 2: the market. Investors were reassured. Call it the Trump put

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Speaker 2: the Taco, whatever you want to say. It's been different

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Speaker 2: this time, however, with a market that seems to be

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Speaker 2: very reluctant to go long into the weekend despite any

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Speaker 2: rhetoric that is coming from the White House. In fact,

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Speaker 2: we were in the throes of a deep cell off

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Speaker 2: when we spoke to David West and right at this

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Speaker 2: time last week, investors looking for a reprieve may not

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Speaker 2: be getting the same treatment today, as David joins us,

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Speaker 2: of course, the host of Bloomberg Wall Street Week, who's

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Speaker 2: been through a couple of these before. And David, it's

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Speaker 2: great to see you again. I think I gave you

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Speaker 2: the same awful doom and gloom set up when we

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Speaker 2: spoke last week, with now a Nasdaq in correction, an

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Speaker 2: S and P five hundred below the two hundred day.

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Speaker 2: We've got a vis approaching thirty risk off four four

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Speaker 2: two on the ten year, four nine six on the thirty.

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Speaker 2: Wall Street's not buying this most recent attempt to step down,

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Speaker 2: and I'm wondering what you think about this reaction.

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Speaker 7: Well, the media reaction is just exactly what you said,

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Speaker 7: which is, there's just so many times you can say

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Speaker 7: we're going to back off, We're going to back off

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Speaker 7: before they don't believe it. But I think we have

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Speaker 7: to also, as I'm sure many on Walshreet are thinking

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Speaker 7: it could be real. I mean, it could be that

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Speaker 7: you really are negotiating, you may actually work out. I mean,

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Speaker 7: they're just too wide a range of possibilities here, and

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Speaker 7: we always want to figure out what's going to happen immediately,

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Speaker 7: and I certainly don't know right now. I don't see

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Speaker 7: a lot of reason for hope of anything getting resolved

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Speaker 7: very quickly. But I could be wrong. I've been wrong

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Speaker 7: in the past. I hope I'm wrong this time. Well, boy,

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Speaker 7: that's for sure.

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Speaker 2: The scenario is becoming pretty easy to see though, as

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Speaker 2: soon as oil goes up, stocks go down, and the

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Speaker 2: energy market really seems to be keying off everything that's

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Speaker 2: happening in the Strait of fourmus here, David, it's almost

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Speaker 2: like a slow motion movie. We were talking about this

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Speaker 2: very same issue last week. Any attempts that we've made

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Speaker 2: to reopen the straight diplomatically of not helped, and even

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Speaker 2: doing strafing runs and bombing that area has not helped.

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Speaker 2: NATO is obviously not joining us in this endeavor. In

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Speaker 2: no Iran wants to start charging for passage so the

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Speaker 2: gates remain closed effectively.

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Speaker 7: And you really, Joe taking us beautifully to what we're

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Speaker 7: doing in part on Wall Street Reach to Ight. We're

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Speaker 7: going to talk to Nick Burns, the former USA besion

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Speaker 7: of China about that. Remember that summit that was supposed

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Speaker 7: to happen right about now that got post of phone

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Speaker 7: until May, about where China is and all this, but

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Speaker 7: also we went beyond the oil and gas market. You

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Speaker 7: mentioned they certainly have been roiled by what's happened in Iran,

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Speaker 7: but it's not just them. There's something else being rolled,

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Speaker 7: and that is fertilizer at a critical moment. April is

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Speaker 7: the critical moment in the northern Hemisphere for planting. And

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Speaker 7: we found a couple of people who really know fertilizer well,

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Speaker 7: one whose title is vice president of Fertilizer believe it

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Speaker 7: or not for stone X out in the Middlewest. His

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Speaker 7: name is Josh Linville, who really knows it backwards important

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Speaker 7: and also our new contributor, special contributor, Christian Freeland, who

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Speaker 7: it turns out, knows a lot about fertilizer. This is

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Speaker 7: part of what they had to tell us.

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Speaker 8: Everybody is talking about the oil and the gas and

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Speaker 8: everything else that flows through there. Few people know urea

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Speaker 8: being the most commonly traded nitrogen product of the world.

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Speaker 8: About a third of the world's product flows through that

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Speaker 8: strait of horror moves. When you look at the top

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Speaker 8: ten list of global urea exporters. Three of them sit

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Speaker 8: behind the straight of horror moves. That's Iran, that's Guitar,

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Speaker 8: and that's Saudi Arabia. Those three nations represent three of

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Speaker 8: the ten largest anhydrous exporting nations.

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Speaker 9: Farmers are very affected by the price a fertilizer. Fertilizer

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Speaker 9: accounts for about twenty five percent of the costs for

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Speaker 9: a farmer, and this is happening just at seeding time,

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Speaker 9: as they're getting ready to plant their crops, and it's

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Speaker 9: happening at a time when farmers have been really beaten up.

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Speaker 9: You know, the trade wars have been really hard for farmers.

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Speaker 9: For American farmers, I should say, COVID was really really

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Speaker 9: hard for farmers, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the

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Speaker 9: economic impact was really hard for farmers. So they've been

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Speaker 9: having a hard time. And then on top of that,

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Speaker 9: you see the price of fuel, the price of fertilizer

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Speaker 9: skyrocket at a time when you're just you know, going

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Speaker 9: into your shop, looking at your seed drill, checking that

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Speaker 9: everything works, getting ready to get out in the fields.

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Speaker 7: So, Joe, that was Christoph Frielan there you heard, and

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Speaker 7: we know her as the former Deputy Prime Minister of Canada,

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Speaker 7: the former Finance Minister of Canada. But what I didn't

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Speaker 7: necessarily know is is she says herself, she's a farmer's daughter.

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Speaker 2: She comes from Alberta.

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Speaker 7: Her father is back on the family farm out there,

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Speaker 7: so she knows fertilizer and knows farming backwards off us.

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Speaker 7: And she said one of the first thoughts she had

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Speaker 7: what she heard about this attack on around was oh,

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Speaker 7: my goodness, what's going to happen to farmers. So she's

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Speaker 7: got that verson as we as you know, as we're

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Speaker 7: seeing President Trump with a it looks like a golden

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Speaker 7: tractor right and at the White House today preaching out

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Speaker 7: to farmers.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how many farmers are using golden tractors,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, David, your timing is impeccable. The south lawn

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Speaker 2: is full of farmers wearing cowboy hats right now. There's

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Speaker 2: an indeed, a golden tractor and a red, white and

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Speaker 2: blue one. And the President was talking to them about

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Speaker 2: how much he has done for farmers. He said, I

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Speaker 2: gave you twelve billion dollars and I'm wondering if there's

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Speaker 2: going to be another subsidy coming here. We're talking about

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Speaker 2: farm bill again, and obviously an industry that is maybe

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Speaker 2: more impacted than any by what's happening in the string.

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Speaker 7: Well, and you remember Joe he did this the first

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Speaker 7: time around too, in the first administration. He had a

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Speaker 7: big subsidy for farmers because of what happened with China,

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Speaker 7: and we went out, as you call, to Iowa and

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Speaker 7: talked to the farmers out that and said, well, that's okay,

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Speaker 7: but we'd rather actually earn it ourselves.

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Speaker 2: We don't love these subsidies.

433
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Speaker 7: One thing in the markets I will say is I

434
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 7: think I want to go long on spray gold reristolium.

435
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 7: I think you could make a lot of money on

436
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 7: that right now, because we're gonna have to spray everything gold.

437
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 2: I think from now on, if you want to get

438
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 2: it in the White House, you've got to see what

439
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 2: he's doing in the treaty room. David, I know you

440
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 2: know the White House pretty well. That is another report

441
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,479
Speaker 2: we haven't even touched yet. The Nasdaq one hundred extending

442
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,679
Speaker 2: its decline to one point six percent. We're now at

443
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 2: session low's here s and P five hundred down eighty five,

444
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 2: little more than one percent. Not a great situation, and

445
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 2: you wonder, David, how resilient, how elastic this market might

446
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 2: be when good news arrives. You just said, look, this

447
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 2: could be real. If the President shows up in ten

448
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 2: or fewer days here and says we've got a deal

449
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 2: in Iran. What would this market look like here?

450
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 7: Yeah, most people on the street say that it would rebound,

451
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 7: but really quickly, including oil would come down quite quickly

452
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 7: as well. Having said that, you know so well, Joe,

453
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 7: business is based on prediction and having some certainty of

454
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,360
Speaker 7: what's going on. I think there is a cost being

455
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 7: paid for all the ups and down, even if it

456
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 7: comes out all right in the end, and at this

457
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 7: point we don't see that, but it could. Even if

458
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 7: it does, there's a price to be paid. And one

459
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 7: of the questions we're going to be taking a look

460
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 7: at is what does it do, for example, to the

461
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 7: US dollar as a reserve currency. If we really push

462
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 7: this to the edge and we can do longer term

463
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 7: damage that it may be difficult to come back out of.

464
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 2: Fascinating stuff. That's why you want to stick around. After

465
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 2: the late edition of Balance of Power, it's Wall Street

466
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,400
Speaker 2: Week with David weston six pm Wall Street Time, here

467
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Great to compare notes with

468
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 2: you always, David, Thank you so much, and enjoy the weekend.

469
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:34,959
Speaker 2: Let's assemble the panel and get their take on all

470
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 2: of this, because the economic impact of this war is severe,

471
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,679
Speaker 2: even though it could be immediately reversed, as we just

472
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 2: established again with David Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Shanzano, a

473
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 2: Democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at Harbert Kennedy School's

474
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,199
Speaker 2: Ash Center, and Rick Davis, Republican strategist and partner at

475
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 2: Stone Court Capital with us right now. Genie, you saw

476
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 2: those farmers out there listening to the President when they

477
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 2: go back home. Reality, as we just established, not only

478
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 2: are they preparing for planting season here, they can barely

479
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 2: afford to fill the tank. And now fertilizer is going

480
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 2: to be prohibitively expensive. And guess what all this comes

481
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 2: through at the grocery store in the end, doesn't it.

482
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:18,679
Speaker 10: That's right? You know, I heard somebody who is an

483
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 10: expert on these things say that there's eight months out

484
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 10: of the year that if you're going to close the strait,

485
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 10: that you would do that, And the United States chose

486
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 10: the exact wrong time to do that, because of course

487
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 10: it is planting season, so you've got the fertilizer, you've

488
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 10: got the oil problems. And this is why, of course,

489
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:39,879
Speaker 10: Donald Trump is in big trouble politically. He's under forty

490
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 10: percent in three of the latest polls, making him not

491
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 10: just unpopular, but the most unpopular president in the modern

492
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,959
Speaker 10: era at this point in his time in office. And

493
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 10: to make matters worse, I'm sure for Donald Trump because

494
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 10: he always likes to compare himself to Joe Biden. Joe

495
00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:00,719
Speaker 10: Biden's numbers on the economy, his approval for the economy

496
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 10: work better than Donald Trump. And that's a real problem

497
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 10: for Donald Trump, because there's one thing people have always

498
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,640
Speaker 10: trusted about him is he's a businessman. He knows how

499
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,439
Speaker 10: to manage the economy. He knows what he is doing.

500
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 10: And from farmers to people across the country, they are

501
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 10: feeling now like their economic situation under this president is worse.

502
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 10: That is setting up some very bad political realities for

503
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 10: Donald Trump and the GOP. And of course I will

504
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 10: let my dear friend Rick Davis talk about consumer sentiment

505
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 10: because I wouldn't dare step up. But that is very

506
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 10: bad numbers for them as well.

507
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, lower than expected today. That final number is ugly,

508
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 2: And I know that's your favorite political pull, Rick, when

509
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 2: you look at you mish. The President today just told farmers,

510
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 2: by the way, he's going to be asking Congress to

511
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 2: pass a new farm bill with more extensive farm relief.

512
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 2: Will there be any appetite for that in this environment?

513
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,120
Speaker 11: You know, think about the environment that they're going into

514
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,160
Speaker 11: to talk about that. You know, with a reconciliation bill

515
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 11: now almost a certainty if you want to actually fund

516
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 11: ice and two hundred billion dollars supplemental that may get

517
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 11: tacked onto that for the military. And now you're talking

518
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 11: about you know, twelve billion dollars for farmers. And I

519
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 11: mean you're talking now about like almost a three hundred

520
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:27,640
Speaker 11: billion dollar reconciliation or supplemental bill. I mean, like at

521
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 11: a time when we're running the highest national debt in history,

522
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 11: that our deficits every year continue to climb, and it

523
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 11: is impacting our capacity to function as a country. When

524
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 11: when you start spending this much on debt service, you

525
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 11: have to spend less on national security. It's just a certainty.

526
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 11: And so I think that I think it's going to

527
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 11: be a very difficult discussion, especially into an election year,

528
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 11: where you know, Congress typically saves up some capital to

529
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 11: spend so that they can have a good attitude going

530
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 11: into election. But I think the barrel's going to be dry.

531
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 11: I think it's going to be very difficult to get

532
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 11: these big spending bills through the Congress this year.

533
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 2: With that two hundred billion dollars supplemental request still looming,

534
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 2: and we don't know that that will be the number.

535
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 2: That's the report Genie the Washington Post today in our

536
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 2: remaining moments is the military has fired more than eight

537
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty Tomahawk cruise missiles in four weeks of war,

538
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 2: and they need to buy a lot more. We know

539
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,479
Speaker 2: this story. They cost three and a half million dollars

540
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 2: each at least the more recent versions is that supplemental

541
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 2: going to run into headwinds?

542
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 10: Oh, it's going to run into big headwinds. And Rick

543
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 10: just went through some of the numbers here. As again,

544
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 10: our debt reaches the highest in American history. And of course,

545
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 10: what is the President saying politically at that very strange

546
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 10: cabinet meeting yesterday. He's saying, I thought things were going

547
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 10: to be worse This isn't so bad. It's not as

548
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 10: severe as I thought. Politically, he is more out of

549
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 10: touch than Joe Biden sounded. It's saying a lot because

550
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 10: Joe Biden sounded out of put even more than George

551
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 10: Bush with his grocery you know, grocery. I'm not understanding

552
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 10: how we chricet grocery.

553
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 2: So the grocery scanner and the price of a gallon

554
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 2: of milk, the gret great panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzin. No,

555
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 2: let's meet back here on the late edition of Balance

556
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 2: of Power. Right here on Bloomberg. Stay with us on

557
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 2: Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

558
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

559
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

560
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

561
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

562
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 1: New York station. Just say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

563
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: The President might be speaking again in a short time.

564
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 1: He's leaving the White House, having spoken to farmers on

565
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 1: the South Lawn. He's now headed out of town to Miami,

566
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 1: where he's going to be speaking at an investment conference

567
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 1: a bit later on today. He's scheduled to start talking

568
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 1: after the close, but we could get some driveway remarks

569
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: from the President, and of course we'll be listening as

570
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 1: always to Jeff who checked in watching us today on

571
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 1: Bloomberg TV with the big question that we get from

572
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 1: a lot of listeners and viewers, those of you who

573
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: see us on Balance of Power on television or on YouTube,

574
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 1: I can tell you it's real. The question is Rick

575
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 1: Davis's dog that sits on the leather chair behind him

576
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 1: real or is it fake? It's not Ai and it's no,

577
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 1: that's real. Bendy's a celebrity with our eyes on Capitol

578
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 1: Hill today, it looks like a deal to fund DHS

579
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 1: that everyone woke up feeling very optimistic about may have

580
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: just been dashed.

581
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 2: In the House. The Senate was up almost all night

582
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 2: two thirty in the morning. Eric Wasson was there as

583
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 2: they passed the bill on a voice vote to fund

584
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 2: DHS in its entirety except for Ice. The plan was

585
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 2: Republicans would come back and do that through reconciliation later

586
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 2: on in the year, even though Ice has plenty of money,

587
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 2: but it would get da jess open again get tsa

588
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 2: agents paid past the Senate. As I said in the

589
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 2: middle of the night, it took a lot of cajoling

590
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 2: day long, well into the wee hour meetings in John

591
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 2: Thune's office, and the whole thing just crashed on the

592
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 2: rocks in the House with Republican leaders saying no, and

593
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 2: mainly the Freedom Caucus. No, not going to pass a

594
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 2: vote in this case a bill that does not fund ice,

595
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 2: and so we have a stop gap here. And the

596
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 2: fact of the matter is any bill that would have

597
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 2: been different from the Senate would have been a problem

598
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 2: because senators have already left town. So it looks like

599
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 2: this is going to drag on for some time. Eric

600
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 2: Wasason is with us now Bloomberg Congressional correspondent with the

601
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 2: very latest on this. Eric, I hope you got some

602
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 2: sleep here, because it looks like we're far from done.

603
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 2: Is there a chance this could be rescued today or

604
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 2: is it all up in smoke?

605
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 12: There is a chance. It's a very fluid situation, you know.

606
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 12: Speaker of Mike just is on a call with his members.

607
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 12: Some of the Freedom Caucus wons is eight week stop

608
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 12: gap bill that would pay well and fund all of DHS.

609
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 2: It's dead on arrival.

610
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 12: In the Senate, Chuck Schumer just issued a statement saying

611
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 12: that House Democrats wouldn't go for it. But it's not

612
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 12: really clear that the House could even pacity week see

613
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 12: our moderates in Johnson's party or pushing back on the call.

614
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 12: So this is going to be potentially an embarrassing attempt

615
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 12: on his part. He had scheduled a press conference at

616
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 12: one pm to announce this plan that was put off,

617
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 12: and we're all told to come back later. So it's

618
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 12: a very fluid situation. Certainly, if they stick with this plan,

619
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 12: the shutdown would continue. I will note for air travelers,

620
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 12: the President did issue or is about to issue an

621
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 12: executive order paying TSA agents. So I think, you know,

622
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 12: no matter what happens with the House and the Senate

623
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 12: this weekend, you know the airline situation should abate as

624
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 12: TSA agents are starting to get paid. It's not a fund,

625
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 12: it's a fund about ten billion dollars. It probably won't

626
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 12: pay the full year, but it could last for several

627
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 12: months to pay those agents.

628
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 2: I'm really glad you mentioned that.

629
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 5: Eric.

630
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 2: We're going to talk to Congressman Troy downing in just

631
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 2: a moment. But to clarify, the President did late yesterday

632
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 2: drop this executive order to pay TSA agents. So even

633
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 2: if the agency stays closed, if Senators don't come running

634
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 2: back to town, or if there isn't a different vote

635
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 2: in the House today, agents know that checks are coming.

636
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 2: And would that be retroactive.

637
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 12: I believe it would be retroactive. It should stop the

638
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 12: staffing shortages, the sickouts, and other problems of qualities, massive

639
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 12: three or four hour lines. But there are other elements

640
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 12: of DHS. You know, whether you're in the Secretary of

641
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 12: Homeland Securities Office, whether you're working on other projects related

642
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 12: to border patrol, you know that are not actually patrolling

643
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 12: the border but supporting them. Those guys are not being paid,

644
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 12: and it's unclear if there's a legal authority to pay

645
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 12: them through an executive order. So I think there's certainly

646
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 12: some motivation from modern Republicans. It certainly there's a motivation

647
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 12: for Senate Republicans just to in the middle of the

648
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 12: night agree to fund most of these agencies. And again,

649
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 12: the thing that passed the Senate funds everything except ice

650
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 12: and border patrol, and those could be backfilled through a

651
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 12: special budget process.

652
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 2: Later, boy, Eric, youuban great. I guess we'll sleep when

653
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 2: we die. Eric, in reporting from Bloomberg throughout the night

654
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill, I mentioned the gentleman from Montana. You know,

655
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 2: it's one thing if you're a congressman from Virginia or

656
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 2: Maryland or even New York. If you're a Congressman from Montana,

657
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 2: you don't have any choice but to get on an airplane.

658
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 2: And Troy Downing will tell you all about it. He's

659
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 2: the Republican representing Montana's second District's a US Air Force

660
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 2: veteran who has deployed twice in Afghanistan. Congressman, it's great

661
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 2: to see you back on Bloomberg and we appreciate the

662
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 2: time today. I don't know how you're feeling about heading

663
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 2: to the airport at this point, but what do you

664
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 2: think about everything that has transpired in the House today?

665
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 2: Would you have voted to approve that Senate bill if

666
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 2: it got to the House.

667
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 13: Well, let's just go back to the beginning of this.

668
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 13: I mean, we've what's happened is politics has taken the

669
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 13: place of policy. And obviously when we started out, we

670
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 13: had the great work that we're done in appropriations on

671
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 13: both the House and Senate side. We had a bipartisan

672
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 13: by cameral bill to actually get our wealth appropriation bill through,

673
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:05,240
Speaker 13: and then the Democrats completely blew this up in the Senate.

674
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 13: And we've been what's been forty two days now that

675
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 13: DHS has been unfunded, and it's clear that they put

676
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 13: politics above public safety, and not just public safety, but

677
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 13: just the welfare. Think of all those TSA agents that

678
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 13: are now you know, continue to go unpaid. Think of

679
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 13: you know, all the issues with the Coast Guard, with FEMA,

680
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 13: with everything that falls under DHS. And I'll tell you

681
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,839
Speaker 13: what we've done in the House is we have continued

682
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 13: to pass a bill to fund DHS in its entirity

683
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:41,320
Speaker 13: as we got out a committee, bipartisan in bi cameral.

684
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,320
Speaker 13: So of course there's some heartburn about passing this.

685
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 2: Okay, So can I get back to that question though,

686
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 2: I mean, we were steeped in this wonky stuff every day, Congressman,

687
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 2: and we understand the stakes here and the rhetoric that's

688
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 2: coming from both sides. Is there a way out of

689
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 2: this today or is everybody going home for another couple

690
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 2: of weeks?

691
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:01,439
Speaker 1: Well?

692
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 13: What I what I understand is going to happen now,

693
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 13: because we've had conversations about, you know, trying to get

694
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 13: a vote on suspension, on whether we could get you know,

695
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 13: the votes to get that through or not, whether we

696
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 13: had to go through the rule process. But what I

697
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 13: understand now is there's a CR that's on the table

698
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 13: that will be an eight week continuing resolution so that

699
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,880
Speaker 13: we can continue, so we can fund everything that we

700
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 13: need to fund and give us eight weeks of time

701
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 13: to actually negotiate and try to get some good policy

702
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 13: through and hopefully cut through the politics and what we're

703
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 13: expecting now, I believe if they haven't started that at

704
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 13: some point today, the Rules Committee's going to meet to

705
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 13: try to get this through for this CR. And I've

706
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 13: heard it's possible that we'll vote on that is early

707
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 13: as tonight, It may be tomorrow, but this is Congress.

708
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 13: Who knows what else might be thrown in there, but

709
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 13: that that's the current expectation.

710
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 2: All right, We're going to the source here. This is

711
00:36:56,040 --> 00:37:00,320
Speaker 2: really fascinating, Congressman. Is the is the Republican Conference largely

712
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 2: or entirely on board? And if this passes, do we

713
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:06,880
Speaker 2: think the Senate comes back to vote on it?

714
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 13: Well, I mean the Senate is that's a big that's

715
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 13: a big who knows. But what I'm hoping is that

716
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 13: we can get everybody on board because this is critical.

717
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 13: As I mentioned, it's become very political and not about

718
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 13: the policy. We need to get this agency refunded for

719
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 13: all the reasons I've already articulated. But if the Senate

720
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 13: continues on this path that they're willing to put the

721
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 13: politics ahead of the people and not actually pass this

722
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 13: bi cameraal bipartisan bill that they've already agreed to, I'm

723
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 13: not sure where we get to at this point, but

724
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 13: we continue to pass this bill in the House, as

725
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 13: everybody's agreed to, We're going to continue trying to do

726
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 13: this and hopefully calmer heads can prevail if we get

727
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 13: this cr passed and have that eight weeks to negotiate

728
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 13: a final version.

729
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 2: Of this really interesting. It's a long ride to Montana. Congressman,

730
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 2: I know you got to wait in some lines here,

731
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 2: and I'll remind of listeners and viewers. You deployed twice

732
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 2: in Afghanistan as an airman, and I'm wondering your thoughts

733
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,240
Speaker 2: right now. You know that first batch of marines.

734
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 13: Go ahead if I was on a COMMA search and

735
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 13: rescue squad and sorry I stepped on you.

736
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 2: There, Yes, sir, No, not at all. I just say airman,

737
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 2: as a member of the Air Force, we've got troops

738
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 2: on the way right now. That first, as I understand

739
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 2: at first, a Marine Corps expedition or a unit could

740
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 2: arrive as early as today, and others are on the way.

741
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 2: There's a Wall Street Journal report out today whether it

742
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 2: ends up being true that the Pentagon's considering calling up

743
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:38,879
Speaker 2: another ten thousand troops. As probably the only person I'll

744
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 2: speak with today who's been deployed in harm's way, I'm

745
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 2: just wondering where your head is on all of this,

746
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 2: if you're worried about these men and women, or if

747
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 2: they are exactly what's needed to apply pressure at the

748
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 2: negotiating table.

749
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:53,799
Speaker 13: Well, you never take the decision to put boots on

750
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 13: the ground lightly, and there's always concerns about that. And

751
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 13: what I come back to in this is you've got

752
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 13: to weigh the risks not just to our allies, not

753
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 13: just to the region, but to the United States of

754
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 13: America and to this planet in having a terrorist Islamist

755
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 13: regime that has access to nuclear weapons. And we needed

756
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 13: to make sure that we completely foreclosed on their opportunity

757
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 13: to do that and to make sure that they continue

758
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,799
Speaker 13: to comply and not be developing that we needed to

759
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 13: make sure that we were taking out their ballistic and

760
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 13: their naval capabilities. So now move to where we're at

761
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 13: right now. Obviously there's been a lot that's happened since

762
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 13: this started, and we need to find a way of

763
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:42,799
Speaker 13: opening up the port of horror moves, and I think

764
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 13: that we're starting to move on that line. Nobody takes

765
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 13: sending troops into harm's way lightly, but the other part,

766
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 13: the alternative is having a terrorist is lomist regime that

767
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 13: has access to nuclear weapons, and whether they can send

768
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 13: those ballistically or send them in containers or some other way,

769
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 13: it still puts this planet at risk. And I think

770
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:06,320
Speaker 13: that we need to make sure that we completely foreclose

771
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 13: on that opportunity for them.

772
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 2: Well, and most analysts have told us it will require

773
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 2: actual people, It will require troops to get our hands

774
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 2: on that enriched uranium that has gone missing. And apparently

775
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 2: that is in fact one of the objectives that the

776
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 2: White House has here. Was it a smart moment as

777
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 2: a president to give this another ten days.

778
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 13: Well, I as it should be, because the concern is

779
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:31,280
Speaker 13: now you know, I've heard different numbers of sixty percent

780
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 13: enriched uranium, and the ability to get that to weapons

781
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 13: grade is it's pretty close already. So we need to

782
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 13: make sure we're pulling that out so that it's not used.

783
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 13: Like I said, even if you've completely disabled their ability

784
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 13: to send anything ballistically, that doesn't mean something's going to

785
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 13: be you know, sent and harm us in a much

786
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 13: bigger way, you know, in a shipping container or some

787
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:54,879
Speaker 13: other means. So we need to make sure that that's

788
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 13: all accounted for and or destroyed, but account you know, obviously,

789
00:40:58,560 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 13: if we can get in there and pull it out

790
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,320
Speaker 13: so we know that they don't have access to any material,

791
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 13: I think that's the best outcome we can get to.

792
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:09,280
Speaker 13: And as the President said, as we said from the beginning,

793
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 13: you know, the goals here is to make sure that

794
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 13: they never have the capability of nuclear weapons. They don't

795
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:16,719
Speaker 13: have ballistic capability, and they don't have naval capability. And

796
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 13: that's that last part of the stated goals.

797
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 2: Are you glad the President gave this another ten days?

798
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 2: Or should he be less forgiving?

799
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:29,839
Speaker 13: Well, I, you know, I'm not going to, you know,

800
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:32,880
Speaker 13: speculate on what intel the President had access to to

801
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:35,360
Speaker 13: make that decision, but i will tell you that I

802
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 13: have faith in this administration and doing the right thing

803
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,719
Speaker 13: and making sure that we prevail in our state of

804
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 13: goals in this operation. And you don't ever want to

805
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 13: be over zealous and put anybody in harms way that

806
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 13: you shouldn't, but you need to make sure that we

807
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:49,880
Speaker 13: are getting.

808
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 2: To that stated goal.

809
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:52,879
Speaker 13: And as everybody said from the beginning of this, where

810
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 13: you know, this is not intended to be and we

811
00:41:55,600 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 13: don't expect it to be a prolonged operation, but we

812
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 13: do need to get those stated goals, and I'm still

813
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,279
Speaker 13: confident that we can do it without this turning into

814
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 13: a long drawn out deal.

815
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 2: He is a member of the House Financial Services Committee,

816
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:14,280
Speaker 2: Small Business, Natural Resources, and an Air Force veteran. Congressman,

817
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 2: It's good to have you back as part of our conversation.

818
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 2: I appreciate the insights that Congressman Troy Downing, the Republican

819
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 2: from Montana, facing a long airplane ride home whenever this resolves,

820
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 2: and looks like it could go into tomorrow based on

821
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 2: what the Congressman just told us, fascinating again to get

822
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 2: it from the source. With Republicans in motion today in

823
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 2: the House, it appears they will not be accepting the

824
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 2: bill that was passed in the Senate to fund DHS

825
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,359
Speaker 2: with the exception of ICE and again fluid. As Eric

826
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 2: Wasson told us, anything could change by the end of

827
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 2: the day, and as Rick Davis predicted this hour, the

828
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 2: House will pass that Senate bill before they leave. We

829
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:53,799
Speaker 2: don't know if that's going to happen, but right now

830
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:56,359
Speaker 2: we've got an eight week cr for DHS. It does

831
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 2: fund ICE that apparently will get to the floor, according

832
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:02,320
Speaker 2: to what the coungressman told us, whether or not Senators

833
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 2: come back to address it is another thing. That executive

834
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 2: order the President put forth to pay TSA agents might

835
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 2: be the only way they get a paycheck anytime in

836
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:16,239
Speaker 2: the near term. Thanks for listening to the Balance of

837
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,800
Speaker 2: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,

838
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and

839
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,799
Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

840
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:28,720
Speaker 2: at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.