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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Single best idea, two important insights from a wonderful economist,

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Speaker 2: and then Jeffrey You will join us here on the

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Speaker 2: currency market that we're seeing. Let me set that up

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Speaker 2: right now in that it's a sleepy August. But one

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Speaker 2: thing we've really seen the last ten to twelve days

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Speaker 2: is dollar weakness, and it's with a vengeance, and it's

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Speaker 2: really true off the Pacific room. We'll get to that

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Speaker 2: with jeff You here in a moment. Who's the most

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Speaker 2: influential economist in America right now? Without question, people would

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Speaker 2: say Claudia Sam and the Sam Rule. Loved having her

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Speaker 2: on right at that moment when the Jobs Day numbers

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Speaker 2: came out and she made real clear the Sam Rule

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Speaker 2: in some way, shape or form, is in effect raging

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Speaker 2: debate right now among economics. Quietly, Anna Wong, the chief

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Speaker 2: economist for Bloomberg Economics, has become definitive, looking first at

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Speaker 2: something called the birth death model and then looking simply

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Speaker 2: at revisions that show a less rosy American labor economy.

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Speaker 2: Here is doctor Wong on jobs.

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Speaker 1: I think in real time, Tom, even though the payrolls

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Speaker 1: the July payrolls one hundred and fourteen thousand. I think

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Speaker 1: eventually it is going to be a revised down, very

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Speaker 1: very close to zero. We're going to get a lot

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Speaker 1: of incremental revisions in the next few months. And note

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Speaker 1: that the response rate for the July pairl was very low.

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Speaker 1: It was under sixty percent. It was one of the

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Speaker 1: lowest July response rates since the nineteen nineties. So I

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Speaker 1: think that by the end of this year we have

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Speaker 1: a very we would probably have a good idea that

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Speaker 1: the payrolls in July was much weaker. In fact, the

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Speaker 1: April twenty twenty four payroll would be even weaker and

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Speaker 1: possibly very close to zero.

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Speaker 2: In a one just stunning there on the shift that

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Speaker 2: we may see in the revisions to our labor economy.

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Speaker 2: This is something special. And along of course has worked

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Speaker 2: at the White House, CEA, worked at Treasury, worked at

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Speaker 2: the Fed lots of Washington experience. I haven't heard this

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Speaker 2: in what I've been doing this three or four years.

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Speaker 2: I have never heard this from any form of economics type.

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Speaker 2: Here is analog of the influence of Yana Hatzias and

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Speaker 2: the team at Goldman Sex.

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Speaker 1: I think they are certainly paying a lot of attention

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Speaker 1: to this. And you know, having worked in the government

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Speaker 1: in both Echoes Building and the Treasury Building and the

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Speaker 1: White House Building, I would say that the firm that

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Speaker 1: has the biggest influence in the federal government is Goldman Sex.

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Speaker 1: So as you're willing to say.

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Speaker 2: That you're talk this is important, You're willing to say

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Speaker 2: that Yana Hazias is a closet governor of the Federal

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Speaker 2: Reserve system.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a fact, Tom, we to acknowledge the fact.

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Speaker 1: And so I think that Goldman does have a disproportionate

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Speaker 1: influence on how government thinks of that things. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: the Fed will be paying attention.

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Speaker 2: To this, and I always entertaining and of course will

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Speaker 2: continue to follow her economics at Bloomberg. Jeffy, you stop

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Speaker 2: by today with b and Y Melon. Jeff You just

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Speaker 2: an incredible concision is his correlations of economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 2: and indeed international relations are really really extraordinary. We've had

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Speaker 2: a dollar move dollar weeker Korean one stronger is one example.

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Speaker 2: On the Pacific rim Jeff, you and a movable dollar.

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Speaker 3: I look at against what Dolly and we still see

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Speaker 3: much lower one thirty handle at least towards the end

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Speaker 3: of the year dollar against a pack outside of dollar

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Speaker 3: cy and Y by the way, because there's a different

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Speaker 3: in terms of policy, a different and policy differentials. I

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Speaker 3: took a look at dollar career, dollar time one. I

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Speaker 3: think those are areas where I still want to sell

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Speaker 3: the dollar. Dollar Latam's going to be an interesting one

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Speaker 3: because the carry trade is still in place. As much

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Speaker 3: as I look at Mexico bankingc very credible in terms

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Speaker 3: of keeping real rates high, but that trade is already

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Speaker 3: well owned. So despite fundamentals, probably dollar will be stable,

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Speaker 3: if not slightly higher against Latin FX up ahead, but

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Speaker 3: euro dollar still calling it lower a last parity, probably

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Speaker 3: a bit too much, So let's go for one oh

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Speaker 3: five at least.

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Speaker 2: Jeff, for you, B and y Melon. Of course, just

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Speaker 2: after this interview he was seven ish this morning. At

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Speaker 2: ninish this morning, we had a print stronger euro through

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Speaker 2: one ten, one eleven, one point one one. You suggesting

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Speaker 2: at some point we'll go the other way from one

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Speaker 2: one eleven yeuro down to weaker euro one oh five.

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Speaker 2: We sell. We shall see there. I got it at seashells.

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Speaker 2: Remember this, I could never do the Seashells. The thing

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Speaker 2: as well. We're out on Android Auto and Apple car

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Speaker 2: Play and YouTube. Just thrilled the sign up. Scribe to

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg podcast You go to YouTube, you subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines, thank you Kayley for joining me today from Chicago.

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Speaker 2: Joe Matthew, The Carol Masser Hour with Timsonovic in the afternoon.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the market will go down today. We'll have to

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Speaker 2: see eight strays, eight eight straight days up in a row,

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Speaker 2: really really extraordinary on Ample podcasts. This is single best

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Speaker 2: idea