1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along 2 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. 4 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:22,119 Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:26,600 Speaker 1: anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, 6 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. 7 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 2: What is around a table here in New York? Binki Chata, 8 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 2: chief global strategist, a head of UST allocation over at 9 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 2: Deutsche Bank. Morning, Binkie, Good morning. I love a title 10 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,520 Speaker 2: in Southside Research, the wobble. Can we talk about the wobble? 11 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 2: What is the wobble in the secuity market? What is that? 12 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 3: The wobble is that, you know, we are basically overdue 13 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 3: for a three to five percent pullback. 14 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 4: It would be normal, believe it or not. 15 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 3: We are now running in you know, ninety fifth percentile 16 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 3: plus in terms of the duration, even though it seems 17 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 3: rather short since March, since we had a three to 18 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,679 Speaker 3: five percent pullback. As I said, you know that's pretty normal. 19 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 3: Three to five percent pullbacks happen every two to three months. 20 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 3: So it's getting a bit extended. Number one. Number two, 21 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 3: as you know, you know, the rise in positioning this 22 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 3: time around has been you know, pretty vertical, especially on 23 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:28,040 Speaker 3: the discretionary investor side, and so it's an additional reason 24 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:32,199 Speaker 3: really for looking for you know, when that process is over. 25 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 4: So I'm not. 26 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 3: Being normative about this as do what should happen, but 27 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 3: you know, if it when that does happen, we'll tell 28 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 3: you that that part sort of played out. 29 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: What is a chata process to buy on the dip? 30 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 1: I'm fascinated you're sitting there like Ayce Greenberg years ago 31 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: at Bear Strings, you got buy tickets over here, sell 32 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: tickets over here. What's the chata process to buy in 33 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 1: the dip? 34 00:01:58,320 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 4: To buy on the dip? I mean, you have to 35 00:01:59,880 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 4: have a view on what's the you know, the. 36 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 3: Catalyst for a current three years out, not three years out, 37 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 3: but you know what's driving a pullback. So the kind 38 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 3: of pullback I'm talking about, it's really more sort of 39 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 3: a consolidation and you know, sort of you want to 40 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 3: see positioning rise gradually rather than vertically as it sort 41 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 3: of did starting in late May. 42 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 5: Does it make you nervous that everyone on your on 43 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 5: Wall Street. All of your colleagues are revising upward their 44 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 5: expectations for the S and P. 45 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 4: It doesn't make me nervous. 46 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 3: It's probably a little bit overdues the way I would 47 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 3: put it. 48 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 6: Okayl like welcome. 49 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 3: We are just reporting, basically, you know, the second quarter 50 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 3: of pretty solid sequential growth in earnings. You know, so 51 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 3: if this was GDP we were talking about, and you 52 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 3: were getting strong growth two quarters in a row, I 53 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 3: think it would have an impact. 54 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 4: The equity market tends to look at things. 55 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 3: On a year and year basis, so you know, the 56 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 3: turning that makes the turning points very fuzzy to be 57 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 3: able to tell. If you look at headline earnings growth 58 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:22,079 Speaker 3: year and year, yes, you know we are still running negative, 59 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 3: but a lot of that just simply has to do 60 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 3: with the oil prices from last year. You take energy 61 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 3: earnings out, and you know, it's first quarter of positive 62 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 3: growth year and year after four negative quarters. I think 63 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 3: it's more important to look at earnings growth on a 64 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 3: sequential basis and also on an underlying basis. And really, 65 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 3: if you look at underlying earnings, which is taking out energy, 66 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 3: taking out the financials loan loss provisions, we've had two 67 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 3: quarters now or four percent plus growth. Yeah, and we 68 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 3: only fell six and a half percent last year. 69 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 4: So actually the line. 70 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 3: Earnings are at a new high, and you know the 71 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 3: narrative is about a recession. 72 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 5: Well, some people are also pointing to small business optimism, 73 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 5: which came out this morning earlier, the highest levels in 74 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 5: eight months, right, so sort of edifying your view. How 75 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 5: much do yields push against that? We were talking about 76 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 5: what's more important for your equity called this week? Is 77 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 5: it going to be CPI on Thursday or is it 78 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 5: going to be the Treasury auctions? And how many people 79 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 5: step up to buy them? 80 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:28,159 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think yields matter, but it's really been much 81 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,679 Speaker 4: more over the last eighteen months. It's really been much. 82 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 3: More about the volatility or if the message coming out 83 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 3: of the rates market, rather than the level of rates. 84 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 3: So as long as we were talking about you know, 85 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 3: twenty five basis points here and there, Yeah, this doesn't 86 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 3: really impact my view. If we get a big acceleration 87 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 3: and inflation and a big you know response from the 88 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 3: Fed and uncertainty increases, then you know it's a bigger 89 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 3: concerned and a bigger pullback. 90 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 2: I would say, how many of these stocks are actually 91 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 2: growth stocks anymore. I'm looking at their multiples and they've 92 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 2: got pretty tidy growth multiples on them, but how many 93 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 2: are actually delivering growth? 94 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 3: So you know, I would say, you know, the focus 95 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 3: shifts over the course of the cycle. What we've basically 96 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 3: seen is, you know, the megacap growth in tech stocks. 97 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,160 Speaker 3: Their earnings turn around first and very strongly in the 98 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 3: first quarter, and it was pretty V shaped move if 99 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 3: you're looking quarter by quarter, and that's now sort of 100 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 3: widening out, is the way I would put it. So 101 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 3: you know, we're catch up. It is so first Tech 102 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 3: caught up with everyone else who hadn't fallen by as much. 103 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:45,039 Speaker 3: And the two of really since late May megacap growth 104 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 3: in tech and the rest of the S and P 105 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 3: five hundred they've they've moved really in tandem. But it 106 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 3: does mean that since megacap growth in tech earnings since 107 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,160 Speaker 3: and amaze very short period, but their earnings. 108 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 4: Do grow faster. 109 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 3: So actually, on a relative multiple basis, all the valuation 110 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 3: is coming in. 111 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 2: You might be annoyed with me for bringing up a 112 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 2: single name, but I think everyone's fascinated by the move 113 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 2: with Apple at the moment. Yeah, and for five straight 114 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 2: days into today. Yes, they're trying to snap back this 115 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 2: morning a bounce, but ultimately are they producing the growth? 116 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,159 Speaker 2: Can we have this the biggest waiting on the S 117 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:18,799 Speaker 2: and P five hundred, the biggest waiting on the NaSTA 118 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:21,679 Speaker 2: one hundred traded a multiple as something like thirty times 119 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 2: forward earnings when it's not delivering any growth. 120 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 4: Yeah. 121 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 3: So, I mean, you know, as you know, I don't 122 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 3: come and from evaluation perspective, what the signal is that 123 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 3: you take away from that name at the moment and 124 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 3: the way it's performed. Sure, but I think that's part 125 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 3: of the process, you know, of sort of the rally 126 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 3: that we've seen so of our broadening out. It's precisely 127 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 3: that question that broadens the rally out because you. 128 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 4: Know, if we are. 129 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 3: You know, the market's running with the soft landing narrative, 130 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 3: and if the soft landing is going to happen, then 131 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 3: you're going to have cyclical growth and so you should 132 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 3: be rotating and the market has you know, it's sort 133 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 3: of sitting. 134 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 4: In the middle now. I mean, we're moving in tandem. 135 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 3: As I said after, you know, growth stocks just leading 136 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 3: the charge, and at some point I would expect you know, 137 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 3: the next case you. 138 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 1: Got a wobble, the wobble, the chatt to wobble is 139 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 1: in place. Does that mean you reset your sp X outlook? 140 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 4: Oh no, no, no, we get five thousand this morning on pullback. 141 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 3: I think that you know, it's important to keep in 142 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 3: mind that we haven't fulfilled even the three percent correct 143 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 3: you know, pullback yet, so we were down basically. I think, 144 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 3: you know, a return of normality after this big repricing 145 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 3: that we've had, you know, would be helpful just. 146 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: For our listeners and viewers. John, I mean, can we 147 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: get tried to go to five thousand today. 148 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 4: With the wobble? Not today, but yes it is our 149 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 4: soft lending target. 150 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 2: Thank you, Thank you for kind of fun pleasure. Thanks 151 00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 2: got to say it. 152 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 1: We're gonna get a brief ound these markets right now. 153 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 1: And I love what she says about August and summer 154 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 1: mirror pandit with US Global Market Strategy JP Morgan Asset Management. 155 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 1: You'd said, Tom, you're jogging in place. You sound like 156 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 1: the entire King family, because that's what I do. I 157 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 1: jog in place. What does jogging in place mean for 158 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 1: a market that's been a moonshot since. 159 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 7: October when we think about the market and the risks 160 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 7: here going forward, there's not. 161 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 8: A whole lot of upside risk here. 162 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 7: But I think that the downside risk is somewhat limited 163 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 7: because if we think. 164 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 8: About where we are with the markets. 165 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 7: We are in between in between the inflation spikes and 166 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 7: the FED hikes, but also waiting for the economy and 167 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 7: profits to sour. So I don't know that there is 168 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,200 Speaker 7: a whole lot of upside catalyst in a world where 169 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 7: profits are just better than feared. We need to see 170 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 7: some more out of the profits landscape in order to 171 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:55,560 Speaker 7: get some more upside from stocks that have already rallied 172 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 7: really hard and that have already experienced in pretty high valuations. 173 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 8: But at the same time time, until we see. 174 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 7: Some more souring in profits in the economy, I think 175 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 7: we're in an environment where stocks are essentially jogging in 176 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 7: place where we are today. 177 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 8: And that's not just for stocks. I think it's similar 178 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 8: for yields. 179 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 7: The pop and yields we've seen more recently, I would 180 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:17,559 Speaker 7: attribute that mostly to the pop and growth. Yes, there 181 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:20,440 Speaker 7: was a Fitch downgrade, Yes we're seeing some inflation break 182 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:23,839 Speaker 7: evens move a bit higher, But really it's all about growth. 183 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 7: If we think about this higher yield environment since May, 184 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:30,680 Speaker 7: since the May FOMC meeting. So if we considered that environment, 185 00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:32,319 Speaker 7: you know, I think that yields too for the rest 186 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 7: of the year could kind of jog in place until 187 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 7: next year. 188 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 1: You're charm at JP Morgan. This is English major out 189 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: of tough CFA, which I think is the coolest thing going. 190 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 1: I can't imagine what the CFA was like for you 191 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: coming out of that wonderful background. You write the documents 192 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: at JP Morgan, You actually craft the documents that you're 193 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: putting out. What are you writing right now about sixty forty? 194 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 7: Right now, if we think about the sixty forty, it's 195 00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 7: had a huge rebound over the course of this year. 196 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 8: Las year the sixty forty was dead. 197 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,319 Speaker 7: But I think what's important to think about with diversification 198 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:07,839 Speaker 7: is that markets and the economy look in opposite directions. 199 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 7: Markets are very much forward looking. The economy is at 200 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:13,839 Speaker 7: best looking at where we are today, but also looking 201 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 7: backward at the data we've already seen. And if we 202 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 7: look at periods in history where the sixty forty has struggled, 203 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,559 Speaker 7: take two thousand and eight, take nineteen seventy four, if 204 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 7: you look at the next year, nineteen seventy five, if 205 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 7: we look at two thousand and nine, those were by 206 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:32,199 Speaker 7: no means good economic years, but you did see the 207 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 7: markets rebound. I mean, two thousand and nine is a 208 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 7: great example where you see markets bottom in March, we 209 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 7: start to get out of recession in the summer, and 210 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:43,559 Speaker 7: actually the unemployment rate continues to rise until October. 211 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 8: I think that's a helpful guidepost for. 212 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:47,560 Speaker 7: Where we are today, and that the market has priced 213 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 7: in a whole lot of bad news and a lot 214 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 7: of risks and threats, and we have yet to see 215 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 7: all of them crystallize. But the market is already sort 216 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 7: of looking a little bit beyond there, and that's a 217 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 7: good environment for diversification. 218 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 5: What do you say to a client who theoretically comes 219 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 5: up to you and says, hold on, this time is different. 220 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 5: Inflation's going to accelerate, These bonds are going to be worthless. 221 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 5: It's going to wreck our evaluation of the stocks of 222 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 5: the sockholdings that you currently have focused on. Something that's 223 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 5: really problematic. We want to just hide in cash. I 224 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:17,679 Speaker 5: don't see how you could be calling for yields to 225 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 5: go back down to something that was normal, What do 226 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 5: you say to them. 227 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 8: Ultimately, if we look at. 228 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 7: Cash right now, clients love a guarantee. If you can 229 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 7: get a guaranteed five percent in a CD, that seems great. 230 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 7: But the reality is if you think about something like 231 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 7: a six month CD, you have some reinvestment risk there. 232 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 7: When we think about the arc of the year, and 233 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 7: with yields where they are now with above trend growth, 234 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 7: well above trend growth really for four quarters in a row, 235 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:42,839 Speaker 7: if we even start to see slightly subtrend growth, you're 236 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 7: going to start to see yields come down. If we 237 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:46,839 Speaker 7: see inflation soften a little bit more, you're going to 238 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 7: see yields come down. Doesn't mean they need to create 239 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 7: this year, and again they could be jogging in place 240 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 7: a bit. But as we head into next year and 241 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:54,680 Speaker 7: we look at that twelve month out look, yields can 242 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 7: start to come down. 243 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 8: So when you sit in cash, you have this. 244 00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 7: Opportunity cost where you're in come can potentially come down, 245 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:03,839 Speaker 7: but also you don't get the benefit of the upside 246 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:06,720 Speaker 7: within stepping out a little bit in the risk spectrum 247 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 7: to bonds, you can potentially lock in income for a 248 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 7: longer period of time, and in addition, have that potential 249 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:13,239 Speaker 7: for capital appreciation. 250 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,439 Speaker 5: We've been talking about the auctions this week and how 251 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:17,840 Speaker 5: the US Treasure Department is selling a greater amount of debt. 252 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,240 Speaker 5: Are you saying this is a good time to buy 253 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 5: that four percent on a ten year yield to lock 254 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,719 Speaker 5: that in seems like a really nice opportunity. 255 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,839 Speaker 7: The window for the bond market has been extended over 256 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:31,079 Speaker 7: the course of the summer. It is, of course a 257 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 7: setback in terms of that recovery that we were hoping 258 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 7: to see throughout this year, but it does extend that 259 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 7: window of opportunity from an entry point standpoint. One of 260 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 7: the biggest challenges that investors are dealing with today is price. 261 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:45,679 Speaker 7: Where do you find something at a reasonable valuation? Now, 262 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 7: I will fully concede that if we look at debt 263 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 7: and deficits over the next decade plus, with deficits coming 264 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 7: in at five and a half to seven percent on average, 265 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 7: that is historically high, and we are going to deal 266 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 7: with it a yield problem over time. But I think 267 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 7: given the economic backdrop in the near term, this is 268 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 7: a pretty good entry point. 269 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: What does it sell right now to high net worth 270 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 1: people about cash at a five percent yield? Are they 271 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 1: comfortable with that, or they're saying, wait a minute, why 272 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: can't we buy more Apple. 273 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 7: You see that clients are comfortable with it because again, 274 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 7: you haven't had that type of yield in so long. 275 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 7: But I think getting back to your question about the 276 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 7: sixty forty and how we broaden out that allocation, we're 277 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 7: also seeing that people realize this is not a market 278 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,719 Speaker 7: for easy money. It's not just that you're going to 279 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 7: experience data that's going to go up. So people have 280 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:34,559 Speaker 7: to be a little bit more discerning in how they're investing, 281 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 7: you know, not only around the world, but in terms 282 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:39,680 Speaker 7: of types of vehicles, thinking about alternatives to enhance different 283 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 7: outcomes for income diversification, capital appreciation. So I think that 284 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:45,840 Speaker 7: people are really sharpening their cells, and. 285 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 1: This time active management wins into twenty twenty four, active 286 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 1: management will beat index. 287 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 8: Take a look at profits, take a look at companies. 288 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,599 Speaker 7: Even within the same sectors or industries, you're seeing a 289 00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 7: lot of differentiation in terms of how management is handling 290 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 7: higher prices, higher wages, more headwinds thrown at them. 291 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 8: So certainly it is a time to pick. 292 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:09,240 Speaker 7: And choose which managers and which management of companies are 293 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 7: doing the right things in this environment. 294 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 2: Mur thank you. It's going to see you more pandit 295 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 2: the f JP Morgan as in management, this is. 296 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 1: An important interview with our question, our interview of the 297 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 1: day in fixed income and all that means across equities, commodities, 298 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 1: in foreign exchange. Rob Waldner is out of the vintage 299 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: of Newtonian calculus that would be engineering at top East 300 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 1: Coast schools with a heritage back two hundred years. He's 301 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 1: Princeton civil engineering. And that is a rigor about statics 302 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: in dynamics that he brings to fixed income right now. 303 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 1: This is not statics in the fixed income market. What 304 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 1: is the dynamic of all the algebra and the math 305 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 1: of fixed income right now? What's the dynamic that you're 306 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 1: focused on? 307 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 9: Well, Tom, you were talking about it earlier in the 308 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 9: second in the show, which is the news around disinflation 309 00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 9: and and almost sort of seems like deflationary sort of 310 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:06,479 Speaker 9: vibes that we have out there. So we're getting USCPI 311 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 9: data on Thursday, we get Chinese data tonight. Chinese data 312 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 9: CPI is likely to come in negative year and ear 313 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 9: us I think the Bloomberg consensus is will get a 314 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 9: point two on core and point two on headline month 315 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 9: and month. So the data is starting to come in 316 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 9: as we've been anticipating, very disinflationary, and it looks like 317 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 9: you know, in certain areas like China and the trade 318 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 9: data we got overnight feels more like deflationary. And I 319 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 9: think that's what's going on in the bond market here 320 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 9: is people are finally realizing or looking at that and thinking, hey, 321 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 9: if I can get a five and a half percent 322 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 9: for investment grade bond portfolio, and we are in a 323 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 9: dissinflationary environment where really where growth is going to be 324 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 9: you know, mediocre, That sounds pretty good, right, So that's 325 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:53,680 Speaker 9: where the buyers come from. 326 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 2: So there's a tug of war right now between disinflationary 327 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 2: forces and additional tracery supply. You don't think that Tracey 328 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 2: is apply wins out. You don't think it's as important 329 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 2: as the disinflationary forces when it comes to what this 330 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 2: bond mark is going to. 331 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 9: Take day to day. The turury supply can drive things, 332 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 9: and I think you were talking about it earlier. That's 333 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 9: probably part of what revalue things last week is looking 334 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 9: forward to that supply. But we know that in any 335 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 9: medium term. You know, month type horizon supply is not 336 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 9: the driver. It's the macro forces that are the drive yields. 337 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 6: So have you been buying this bond sell off? 338 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 9: We have been, Yeah, we have been. We are positive unduration. 339 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 9: We've been looking at this treasury if you want to 340 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 9: talk about the treurgy for a second. You know, we 341 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 9: think the tenure has been in this three and a 342 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 9: half to four percent range. I'm actually getting a little 343 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 9: more positive that. So thinking about that here is a 344 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 9: great buying opportunity because one, as I said, you have 345 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 9: a disinflation environment with relatively moderate real growth and so 346 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 9: that in the medium sure, that's quite good. And then 347 00:16:58,360 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 9: if I start to think about the risks in there, 348 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 9: the risk scenarios are that the FED overstays it's welcome here. 349 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,199 Speaker 9: You know, we have several FED members saying they think 350 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 9: they need to hike again even though we believe we're 351 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 9: in a disinflationary environment. That could be quite negative for 352 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:17,399 Speaker 9: the growth outlook. That could create you know, a dislocation, 353 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 9: and that would be very positive for the treasury market. 354 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 5: So in other words, when we're talking about these auctions 355 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 5: this week, are you basically saying yes, let's go. I 356 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:27,199 Speaker 5: can't wait to load up on both ten year and 357 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 5: thirty year treasuries. 358 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 9: I think that you know, this is a great time 359 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:32,360 Speaker 9: to buy fixed income and if you want to buy treasuries, 360 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 9: if that's your asset of choice. 361 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 6: So who is coming in and joining you? 362 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 5: Are you seeing more institutions who are doing the same 363 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,360 Speaker 5: thing that you are or is it still the international 364 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 5: buyer still the same buyer base, and that we're all 365 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 5: just making a lot of noise over nothing. 366 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:49,400 Speaker 9: Well, you have the same buyer base, The same international 367 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,360 Speaker 9: buyer base is still there. You know, fixed income flows 368 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 9: have not turned incredibly positive yet, but you know we 369 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:57,160 Speaker 9: think that's likely to come. 370 00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 2: Can we talk about the new floor in global fixed income? 371 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: Now? 372 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:03,440 Speaker 2: The POH is pulling back, the ACP has pulled back, 373 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve has taken rates to five and a 374 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 2: half percent, and people think maybe they only come back 375 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 2: to maybe four three and a half something in between. 376 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:12,479 Speaker 2: What is the new floor for global fixed income? If 377 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,640 Speaker 2: you get into trouble, what do you runny down too? 378 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 2: Just in terms of years? What are the limits of 379 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 2: that running because people don't think it's zero anymore? What 380 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:19,680 Speaker 2: is it? 381 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 9: Well, we'll have to see where that pans out. And 382 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:25,920 Speaker 9: it depends on what a recession looks like. 383 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 2: How far we get back to developed thoughts on. 384 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,159 Speaker 9: But you know, we think that it's something in the 385 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,680 Speaker 9: range of sort of two, a more normalized Yeld curve 386 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,560 Speaker 9: would see, you know, a more steep Yeel curve. And 387 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 9: if short rates get down to one, you're talking about 388 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:40,439 Speaker 9: ten years at two two and a quarter, you. 389 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 2: Think short rates will potentially come back down to one. 390 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 9: In a recessionary type environment. 391 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, interesting because least the kind of pushback I've heard 392 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 2: is that perhaps you come down to three and a 393 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,439 Speaker 2: half four something like that. I think it was Mike 394 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 2: Gapan's point over at Bank for America. 395 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 5: The essentially inflation would be stickier for longer, and that 396 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 5: would keep the FED at a higher level that we're 397 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 5: going to go back to the low rate kind of environment. 398 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 5: And I just wonder how much this is really the 399 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,119 Speaker 5: polls of the debate right now, people who believe we're 400 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 5: going back to the environment we were in before and 401 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 5: those who say this time really is different all. 402 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 9: And I would I would really point, you know, we 403 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,160 Speaker 9: live in a nominal world. I think sometimes you get 404 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,400 Speaker 9: confused by this real and and and and and break 405 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 9: even stuff. We live in a nominal world. Nominal growth 406 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 9: is coming down very very quickly. So inflation's coming down 407 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 9: and uh uh, growth is coming down. So you know, 408 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 9: if you think going forward, were nominal growth somewhere in 409 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 9: the four and a half type of range, that's a 410 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 9: that's a tremendous environment for fixed income, right and and 411 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,359 Speaker 9: if nominal growth settles at something below that, then you 412 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 9: could see rates come back down. 413 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,359 Speaker 2: Well, this was great, Thank you, sir, web the Vivesco. 414 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 2: Good to see you in person. 415 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:51,840 Speaker 4: What we're going to do is. 416 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,719 Speaker 1: Dive in now with expertise at Bloomberg Intelligence. Long are 417 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 1: going far away. You did what you could, just steal 418 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 1: the research of prudential research and one leak cli he 419 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:05,360 Speaker 1: was read worldwide and across this nation on boring stuff 420 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: like trucking in rare roads. In this strange word, logistics 421 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: senior logistics analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence is a gift we 422 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 1: have them today. I want to conflate in here the 423 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 1: bankruptcy of Yellow with what we see in ups. Given 424 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,679 Speaker 1: these events, can they raise rates? Can they raise and 425 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 1: sustain revenues by raising rates? Yeah? 426 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:27,640 Speaker 10: I mean that's what UPS is going to have to do, 427 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 10: and they do have pricing power because at the end 428 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 10: of the day, there's really two main competitors at UPS FedEx. 429 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 10: Obviously the US Postal Service are some smaller players, but 430 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 10: they have the ability to raise rates. And not only 431 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 10: can they raise rates, but they're also going into markets 432 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 10: that are more profitable for them, So they're going to 433 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 10: the small mid size shipper versus the big enterprise shipper. 434 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 10: So they're kind of pivoting away from the Amazons of 435 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,720 Speaker 10: the world, if you will, and going, you know, kind 436 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 10: of down market because those those customers tend to be 437 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 10: more profitable, and they're going into more profit verticals like healthcare, 438 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 10: which starts. 439 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: To make more money for these You don't do by 440 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:06,560 Speaker 1: hold cell, John, But you know, to me, you wonder 441 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 1: if this is just like back up your truck. 442 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 4: And load the boat. 443 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 2: We're not about to do it byhold a south on 444 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 2: that night either. 445 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 1: Is back up to the brown truck and load the boat. 446 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 2: Right here, Can we bring in the volume story into 447 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 2: the conversation and just talk to me about what's happening 448 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 2: domestically in America because we're hearing from some domestic focused 449 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,880 Speaker 2: airlines for instance, Jet Blue Southwest mentioning that maybe things 450 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 2: aren't as great as people are saying. What are we 451 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,360 Speaker 2: learning about the domestic US economy from this company? 452 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:31,680 Speaker 10: Well, we've been in a freight recession for quite some time, 453 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 10: and that's really driven because we're everything's being normalized, right, 454 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 10: recalibrating back to where we used to be before the pandemic. 455 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 10: So freight is declining. So what we're seeing is what 456 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 10: we view is kind of like the bottom of that. 457 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 10: And you know, there's been a lot of destocking by 458 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 10: retailers and we're pretty optimistic that you're going to see 459 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 10: some sort of seasonal uptick into the fourth quarter. We're 460 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,360 Speaker 10: not calling a huge peak season, but last year there 461 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 10: was no peak. We think there's like maybe a slight 462 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:05,040 Speaker 10: speed bump of a peak this year. And you know 463 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,400 Speaker 10: what's that telling us is that the consumer is still 464 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,920 Speaker 10: resilient and things should look better for UPS or a 465 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 10: FedEx into twenty twenty four. On a volume standpoint, you 466 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 10: have that plus pricing, you have that plus productivity improvements 467 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 10: from tech. It's hopefully going to offset some of the 468 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 10: increase that they got in cost from that new labor 469 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 10: agreement with the teamsters. 470 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:28,399 Speaker 6: So how significant was that? 471 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:30,199 Speaker 5: I mean, that was really my question, is that a 472 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 5: smoke screen, this whole agreement with the teamsters to cover 473 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,399 Speaker 5: some real fundamental weakness that they're facing or competition, or 474 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 5: is this truly going to create a challenge their profits 475 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 5: going forward in a more material way. 476 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 10: It's definitely going to challenge things. But I would say, 477 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 10: is that in the second quarter, well, you know, second quarter, 478 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 10: that's a has been quarter. They did a fantastic job. 479 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 10: I mean they beat by four cents in EPs, and 480 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 10: it was all on margins. It wasn't on pricing, it 481 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,399 Speaker 10: wasn't on volumes. They actually disappointed. So they disappointed on 482 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 10: the top line and they they surprise on the upside 483 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 10: on the EPs, and that was real on margins. Their 484 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 10: domestic business was you know, it was about one hundred 485 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 10: and thirty basis points better than expectations, and it was 486 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 10: only thirty basis points less than what people were thinking. 487 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 5: If they can absorb it, what's the message to other 488 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 5: logistics companies, to other trucking, shipping, flying companies that are 489 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:27,679 Speaker 5: also facing some organized complaints about the lack of wage growth, 490 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 5: the lack of pass through of some of their profits 491 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 5: to the employees. 492 00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 10: Yeah, at the end of the day, labor is increasing 493 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,760 Speaker 10: and we're not going back to a twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, 494 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 10: twenty nineteen level. So you know, if you're a truckload carrier, 495 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,400 Speaker 10: you had to increase the what you paid your drivers. 496 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,440 Speaker 10: Rates have gone down considerably, and so what that's doing 497 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 10: is forcing a lot of smaller companies out of the market, 498 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 10: and that will firm up rates and bring rates back up, 499 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 10: and so the night swifts of the world will have 500 00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 10: much better margins in the coming quarters. 501 00:23:58,720 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 8: So with higher prices. 502 00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 10: With higher prices, right now, the truckload market is terrible, 503 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 10: like the spot market is pretty much bottoming. We should 504 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,679 Speaker 10: probably start seeing increase in spot rates into fourth quarter, 505 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 10: and contract rates are down by low double digits, and 506 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 10: we expect that to kind of invert positively in twenty 507 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,440 Speaker 10: twenty four to see maybe mid mid single digit truckload 508 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,400 Speaker 10: rate increases on the contractual side. 509 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:28,120 Speaker 1: If there was high single digit even double digit revenue 510 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,400 Speaker 1: growth and that reverts back to mid single digit, low 511 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 1: single digit revenue growth. The slog of logistics, if you will, 512 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 1: can they sustain a given margin down the income statement. 513 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,879 Speaker 10: Really depends on what sub segment of the market you're 514 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,639 Speaker 10: talking about, you know, the lesson truckload market where yellow 515 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 10: defile bankruptcy. That's a very consolidated market. So they have 516 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 10: pricing power. Fedexups, they have pricing power. Railroads they have 517 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 10: pricing power. Truckload carriers not so much because it's extremely fragmented. 518 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 10: So it really depends on what market you're in, whether 519 00:24:57,840 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 10: or not you have the pricing power, and whether or 520 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,399 Speaker 10: not you can push those higher costs onto your consumers. 521 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 2: Leate, this was great. It's good to see you. Come 522 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,399 Speaker 2: back soon. I will leak Alaska there at Bloomberg Intelligence. 523 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 2: Thank you very much. 524 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 1: Lisa Brambinson, time can you throw that David Rubinstein could 525 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 1: join us this morning. This is perfectly timed because Nova 526 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:28,200 Speaker 1: Grants has been the pinata of bitcoin when it goes down. 527 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,679 Speaker 1: It's been the genius of bitcoin when it goes up. 528 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 1: And all of a sudden, Larry showed up at the 529 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:37,719 Speaker 1: door to say, hey, big respectable firms can prosecute and 530 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 1: do bitcoin link Lawrence Fink of black Rock to Mike Novagrants. 531 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 11: Well, what's happened is people, as you suggest, make fun 532 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 11: of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. But now the establishment. Larry 533 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 11: Fink at Blackrock is now saying they're going to have 534 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 11: an ETF if approved by the government in bitcoin. So 535 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,000 Speaker 11: you're saying, wait a second, If the mighty Blackrock is 536 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,159 Speaker 11: willing to have an ETF and bitcoin, maybe bitcoin, it's 537 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 11: going to be around for a while. 538 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 1: Lisa wants to jump in here, but I'm going to 539 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,359 Speaker 1: cut to the news moment. Is Carlisle announcing this morning 540 00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,160 Speaker 1: a bitcoin advocacy. 541 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,800 Speaker 11: No, I don't think so, but there's no doubt that 542 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 11: bitcoin is something that I wish I had bought it 543 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,480 Speaker 11: at one hundred dollars a bitcoin when when Mike and 544 00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 11: overgot started buying it. It's now at twenty nine thousand dollars, 545 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,880 Speaker 11: so he's made a lot of money and a lot 546 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 11: of people who bought it at one hundred dollars or 547 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 11: less are feeling pretty good now. It went up as 548 00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,399 Speaker 11: high as sixty one thousand, I think, even down to 549 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 11: thirty one thousand or even twenty nine thousand. Now it's 550 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,840 Speaker 11: still a pretty good profit if you're bought at one hundred. 551 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:33,800 Speaker 5: We all wish we would have bought it at one hundred, 552 00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,240 Speaker 5: and to write it up, it's one thing for Black 553 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 5: Rock to come up with an ETF because they believe 554 00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 5: the proposition of bitcoin. It's another because they see a 555 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:45,119 Speaker 5: profitability proposition where they can basically take advantage of the 556 00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,879 Speaker 5: interest other people have. I mean, isn't that more of 557 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 5: what this is? That basically Wall Street is saying, if 558 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 5: there is a market for it, and we can viably 559 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 5: make one for them and make some money, why not. 560 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 11: Well, remember Wall Street is in business to make money, 561 00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,560 Speaker 11: and this is something they can probably make money. You 562 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 11: have to remember the United States government has been somewhat 563 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:05,959 Speaker 11: skeptical of it. I think Democrats in the Congress and 564 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 11: particularly the people regulating the SEC are skeptical of bitcoin 565 00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 11: and other cryptocurrencies. But outside the United States there's a 566 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 11: lot of interest in it. I think FTX really hurt 567 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,880 Speaker 11: when it went bankrupt, and it hurt the crypto industry. 568 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 11: But a lot of people around the world want to 569 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 11: be able to trade in a currency that their government 570 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 11: can't know what they have, and they want to be 571 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 11: able to move it around rightly or wrongly, and so 572 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:27,879 Speaker 11: I don't think bitcoin is going away. I think the 573 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,400 Speaker 11: Republicans on Capitol Hill are been pretty supportive of it. 574 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:34,639 Speaker 5: There's a difference between having a seamless cross currency payment, 575 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 5: basically saying that instead of going to Western Union, I 576 00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 5: can go and just to transfer something in bitcoin if 577 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 5: it has a stable enough price. That's one proposition, But 578 00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 5: the proposition of bitcoin is a store of value that 579 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 5: could kind of be bid up the way that gold 580 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 5: or silver could seems to have been parked. With the 581 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,639 Speaker 5: advent of yield suddenly that you can get for actual money. 582 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:58,480 Speaker 5: I mean, isn't that sort of the feeling that you're getting. 583 00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 11: Well, there's no doubt that when and interest rates are as 584 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 11: high as they are, you don't need to have gold 585 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,080 Speaker 11: or other kinds of things to get you some solid 586 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,159 Speaker 11: return because when you get five percent on treasuries, but 587 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,879 Speaker 11: eventually five percent will be coming down at some point. 588 00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 11: I don't think bitcoin or cryptocurrencies that are the better ones, 589 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 11: the better known ones. Bitcoin a number of brothers are 590 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:21,200 Speaker 11: going to go away. There's enormous interest around the world 591 00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:23,959 Speaker 11: and be able to have something you can transfer without 592 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 11: the government knowing about it and keep it private. And 593 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,239 Speaker 11: you know, you can say people shouldn't do that, but 594 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:30,880 Speaker 11: that's not going to stop people from doing it. 595 00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,680 Speaker 1: Mister Novagrats and mister Gensler, What did you say about 596 00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:38,240 Speaker 1: the efforts of our chairman of the Securities in Exchange Commission. 597 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,600 Speaker 11: Well, Gary Gensler, who's the chairman of the SEC, is 598 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,320 Speaker 11: not a big fan of cryptocurrency. I think that's fair 599 00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:46,200 Speaker 11: to say. But he lost the major case recently in 600 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,880 Speaker 11: court where he was trying to argue that one of 601 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 11: the cryptocurrencies Ripple was a security and he lost that case. 602 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 11: So I think the SEC has not been able to 603 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 11: convince these the government yet or at least the courts, 604 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:02,560 Speaker 11: that crypto currency is such a dangerous thing. And I 605 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,120 Speaker 11: remember a lot of people in the government now are 606 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:06,880 Speaker 11: thinking that Gary Ginster won't be the chair of the 607 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 11: SEC forever. 608 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:08,240 Speaker 4: Everyone to go. 609 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 1: I mean, these guys just wait them out, right. 610 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 11: I think that's a strategy. It's very popular in Washington. 611 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 11: Waiting out regulators you don't like. 612 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,600 Speaker 5: That seems to be something that has worked given some 613 00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:18,880 Speaker 5: of the turnover that we've seen. 614 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:20,520 Speaker 6: I want to shift gears a little bit because we've 615 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 6: been talking. 616 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:25,840 Speaker 5: All week about banks losing talent to your world, to 617 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:30,240 Speaker 5: private equity and to the sphere of private debt and 618 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 5: inequity that has continued to take more and more market share. 619 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 5: Have you seen that accelerate recently as people really take 620 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 5: a look at what they can earn and the potential 621 00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 5: opportunities in your world. 622 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 11: There's no doubt that some of the large investment banks 623 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,200 Speaker 11: like Goldman, Sacks and others, but not just Goldman Sacks 624 00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 11: have people leaving. But that's actually relatively normal. People are 625 00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,360 Speaker 11: leave all these firms all the time now. After people 626 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 11: typically retire from Goldman in their early fifties, whereas regular 627 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:01,640 Speaker 11: kind of job you might retire in your sixties. So 628 00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,120 Speaker 11: I don't think it's that unusual right now. And I 629 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,239 Speaker 11: think Goldman has obviously got a deep bench. I think 630 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 11: it's in pretty good shape. But there's no doubt that 631 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,240 Speaker 11: people think that in private equity, if you do well, 632 00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,440 Speaker 11: you can make more money than you can invest in banking. 633 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,800 Speaker 11: That's generally been accepted for last ten twenty thirty years 634 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:16,520 Speaker 11: or so. 635 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 5: Do you think that that's going to get pressured at 636 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 5: all as there is more competition and frankly in the 637 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 5: higher yield environment, and if there is some sort of 638 00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,800 Speaker 5: default cycle and a little bit of stress. 639 00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,680 Speaker 11: Well, remember in private equity, it's harder to do private 640 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,520 Speaker 11: equity deals typically today because the interest rates are harder 641 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,640 Speaker 11: at borrow and so forth, but that gives people more 642 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 11: opportunities to buy things in the distress debt area. So 643 00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,160 Speaker 11: there's always people who want to buy things at some 644 00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,320 Speaker 11: kind of value chain proposition. And right now there's a 645 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,080 Speaker 11: lot of view that you can buy things relatively cheaply, 646 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,840 Speaker 11: probably in the near future, in distress real estate or 647 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:48,920 Speaker 11: other kinds of areas. So I don't think all of 648 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,080 Speaker 11: a sudden people that want to make be investors are 649 00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,240 Speaker 11: going to say there's no opportunity. 650 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,600 Speaker 1: In what you're doing at Carlisle with your team. Is 651 00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:00,480 Speaker 1: there malinvestment in AI right now? Is there a frenzy 652 00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:02,600 Speaker 1: going on where dumb decisions. 653 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:02,920 Speaker 4: Are being made? 654 00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:05,360 Speaker 11: Well, I don't want to speak for Carlisle. I would 655 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 11: just say gen Net generally AI has caught at tension 656 00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 11: and people are putting money into it. Whether you're going 657 00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 11: to make a good return on that money, I don't know. 658 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:16,960 Speaker 11: There's a conventional view that the best way to invest 659 00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,120 Speaker 11: in AI is investing in the large companies like Google, 660 00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:21,600 Speaker 11: Microsoft and so forth. Other people say you should go 661 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,720 Speaker 11: find the next startup of open AI. I don't really 662 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,600 Speaker 11: know which is going to prevail, but there's no doubt 663 00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,800 Speaker 11: that people are putting money to AI, and they will 664 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:29,440 Speaker 11: for some time. 665 00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:31,040 Speaker 5: I want to just pick up on one thing that 666 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 5: you said that in the dear future, there's going to 667 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,680 Speaker 5: be a good amount of distress, particularly in some. 668 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 6: Real estate areas. Where are you talking about in particular, Well, I. 669 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,360 Speaker 11: Don't think it's a secret that in the commercial real 670 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:46,040 Speaker 11: estate office market in major cities New York, San Francisco, 671 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,320 Speaker 11: among others, people are not coming into offices, and therefore 672 00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:51,720 Speaker 11: employers are thinking, I don't need as much office space 673 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 11: as I once thought I did. And also, because interest 674 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 11: rates are higher, the value of buildings goes down. Is 675 00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:00,720 Speaker 11: an inverse relationship. So if you interest rates are high 676 00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:02,600 Speaker 11: and the rally of real estate goes down and people 677 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:04,560 Speaker 11: don't need as much real estate as they did before, 678 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:06,920 Speaker 11: and then they renew their leases, they're going to take 679 00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 11: less space. It's probably gonna mean the value of these 680 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:10,080 Speaker 11: buildings are going to come down. 681 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:11,920 Speaker 6: How concerned are you about New York City? 682 00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 11: Well, people have been concerned about New York City for 683 00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,360 Speaker 11: the last two hundred years or so. For two hundred years, 684 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:19,160 Speaker 11: people always say New York City is going to fall apart, 685 00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,440 Speaker 11: and for two hundred years that survive. So I got 686 00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:22,880 Speaker 11: a lot of things I'm worried about in New York 687 00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 11: City's not the number one, David. 688 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:28,040 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. David Rwinstein with us here. Subscribe 689 00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:31,840 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere 690 00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:36,240 Speaker 1: else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting 691 00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:40,440 Speaker 1: at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio 692 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:44,280 Speaker 1: app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can 693 00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 1: watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the 694 00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:52,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this 695 00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:53,800 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg