1 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Gerdusky. It 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:08,400 Speaker 1: is Monday, October twenty seventh, twenty twenty five. We are 3 00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: just eight days away from the off year local elections. 4 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: I feel like we've been talking about this for eight 5 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: years at this point, so it's finally the last week 6 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:19,439 Speaker 1: of the election. Make sure you plank a plan. I 7 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 1: go out and vote. I promise you, no matter if 8 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,079 Speaker 1: you think that you don't live in Virginia or New Jersey, 9 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: there's local elections happening across the entire country. So figure 10 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 1: out who's running, get out and show up and go vote, 11 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: especially for school boards. We have a lot of school 12 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,520 Speaker 1: board candidates in my pack running this year. I spent 13 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: a lot of time thinking about the New York mayoral race, 14 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: which I'll have more about at the end of the 15 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 1: show before I talk to you about the rest of 16 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: the country and the country as a whole. But I 17 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: want to actually spend a second to talk about some 18 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 1: races that have happened overseas because I think they're important. 19 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: They're important for an American context. First, in Argentina, they 20 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 1: had their first national election since pre Javier Malay, the 21 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 1: radical libertarian as the New York Times called him won 22 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 1: the presidency in twenty twenty three. This is basically their 23 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 1: version of the mid terms. Now. Polls show that this 24 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 1: was going to be a tight race. Most polls estimate 25 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 1: that Malay's party would be over or under about two points. 26 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: And it's funny. Over the weekend, the New York Times 27 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 1: covered this election and basically made it a referendum not 28 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 1: only about free market and economics and capitalism and libertarianism, 29 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 1: but also about Trump because everything has to be able 30 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 1: Trump all the time, and really about the rise of 31 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: populism across the West, because the Trump administration just gave 32 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 1: Argentina billions of dollars and people are saying that that's 33 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: not America first, or you know whatnot are asking questions 34 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: of whether that's legitimate given how much he spent cut 35 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 1: and spending from other countries over the seas. So remember, 36 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: going to the last presidential election, Argentina was in an 37 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: absolute state of decline. I believe that it had the 38 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 1: worst economy of any white majority country in the world. 39 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: But the funniest thing is that the way that the 40 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 1: Times describe Malay's government was they were like, it's a 41 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:13,639 Speaker 1: disaster Malay. Now, listen, Malay has done a lot of 42 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 1: economic reforms because Argentina has has basically been a socialist 43 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 1: country since the time of perone and when describing the 44 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 1: state of Argentina's economy and a president of Malay the 45 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:29,359 Speaker 1: time is rites quote mister Malay's effort to reduce inflation 46 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,799 Speaker 1: from the annual rate of one hundred and sixty percent 47 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: when he took office to around thirty percent now has 48 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: helped decrease the poverty rate by ten percentage points to 49 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 1: thirty two percent. But experts say the middle class is 50 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 1: born the brunt of his austerity program, with sharp increases 51 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: and utility bills, school fees, and healthcare costs forcing many 52 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 1: households to scale back spending. I'm just gonna say, what 53 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 1: middle class. I'm sorry, if you are in a country 54 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,640 Speaker 1: with a one hundred and sixty percent annual rate of 55 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:08,359 Speaker 1: inflation and a forty two percent poverty level, what middle class? 56 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 1: What they're describing as basically government workers who lost their jobs. Now, 57 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:15,920 Speaker 1: I'm not saying government workers are never necessary. I'm not 58 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,239 Speaker 1: saying they don't do hard work at times, but they 59 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: don't generate prosperity because the government doesn't create wealth anyway. 60 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 1: The time has continued on how some of Malay's even 61 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: some of Malay's closest allies and supporters were turning on him, 62 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:34,519 Speaker 1: and there was a lot of uncertainty. Well, the results 63 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: came in and Malay's party it's called La Libertade Avanza. 64 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 1: You know, guys, how well I do at pronouncing things, 65 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: So I believe that that was correct. La Libertad Avanza 66 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: absolutely romped the competition. They won forty one percent of 67 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: the vote, eight points ahead of the nearest competitor. I 68 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: need to give a little credit where it's due the 69 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: polster Atlas Intel, which was rated as the most accurate 70 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: polster the twenty twenty four US presidential election. They were 71 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: the only ones to get this election correct, I mean, 72 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: and even close to correct. The country is very tough 73 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: to poll, but they said Malay's party would win by 74 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: six and he won by eight, which is in the 75 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 1: margin of error, and so credit to them where it's due. 76 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: I think I've heard that they have polling being done 77 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 1: in Virginia and New Jersey, which will probably be the 78 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 1: last major polster to look at either state before they 79 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: are elections next week, so that will be interesting. Hopefully 80 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:35,559 Speaker 1: that will be out before the Thursday show and definitely 81 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 1: be out of course before next week's show, which was 82 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,279 Speaker 1: the last day before the election, so I'll be able 83 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 1: to cover what they found. But I mean, Atlas Intel 84 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: is no joke. They really have done solid work on 85 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 1: the international front. There's also one other major election that 86 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: I want everyone to know about, and that's in the Netherlands. 87 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:58,719 Speaker 1: The Dutch are holding a parliamentary election this week on Wednesday, 88 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: which I'm going to try to cover on Thursday. Why 89 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: does it matter. I mean, the Netherlands is a small 90 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 1: country in Europe. It's not, you know, a major woral power. 91 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 1: Because in twenty twenty three when they have their last election, 92 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:15,839 Speaker 1: the national populist party founded by gets villagers called the 93 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 1: Freedom Party came in a shocking first place, and the 94 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: other center right parties but first of step, like exept back, 95 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 1: the Netherlands has like one hundred and fifty parties right there, 96 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 1: everyone starts a party in the otherland's like what are 97 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:30,720 Speaker 1: you doing this week? You're starting a political party. And 98 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: because there are so many parties and they give proportional representation, 99 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:38,919 Speaker 1: I think if you get over three percent or four percent, 100 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: you get a seat in parliament. So virtually everyone gets 101 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 1: a seat in parliament. It's the biggest participation trophy in 102 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: the Western world. And they because it happens though, you 103 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: need to build coalitions, right, there's no majority party of 104 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 1: a singular No singular party gets a majority, so you 105 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 1: have to have a coalition. Solders formed a coalition with 106 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 1: the other center right parties. But they didn't want him 107 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: to be prime minister. They're like, no, you're too extreme. 108 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 1: Fielders has been in Parliament for a very long time. 109 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 1: I think he's the longest serving member of Parliament. So 110 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 1: he conceded not to be Prime minister so long as 111 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:22,039 Speaker 1: he got his way on strict immigration enforcement and strict 112 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: immigration reforms. They broke their promises, so he left his parties. 113 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 1: Party left the government, which forced the government to dissolve. 114 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 1: They didn't have the votes to be a majority anymore. 115 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: Now voters do. This is true in America, this is 116 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,359 Speaker 1: true in Europe, this is true all over the world. 117 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 1: Voters do not like political instability. They punish parties that 118 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 1: create political instability. But they are also deeply unhappy with 119 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 1: the state of immigration and the current levels immigration in 120 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 1: the country. So what are they going to do? Pole 121 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:57,039 Speaker 1: suggests that Builder's Party will still come in first place, 122 00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 1: but they will likely have a tougher time finishing this 123 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,119 Speaker 1: election like they finished the last election. Like they're gonna 124 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 1: lose seats. That's what the poll suggests. But also the 125 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: polls were very wrong the last time. No one predicted 126 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: they would do as well as they did last time. 127 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: So I mean, we're gonna have to wait until Thursday 128 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 1: to really get our head around how the results shake out. 129 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: But this could mean a referendum on national populism in Europe, 130 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: like they're not ready to govern. Maloney, is you know 131 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: a unicorn and you cannot invest. I'll tell Brits and 132 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: Frenchmen and Germans you cannot invest in La Penn's party, 133 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: now Bardella's party, or Nigel Faraj or the AfD because 134 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: you can see in the otherlands that they cannot govern. 135 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 1: It's very interesting they're going to try to make this 136 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 1: referendum of national populism and saying it's all just a 137 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: flash in the pan, so worth paying attention to when 138 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 1: it comes out on Wednesday. Okay, now let's talk about 139 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 1: this country. We have some election turnout results. Now these 140 00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: are not polls. This is how people are actually showing 141 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 1: up in the early vote. Some early patterns are starting 142 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 1: to emerge across the country. Let's start with New Jersey. 143 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: New Jersey is redder than it was in twenty twenty one, 144 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 1: but bluer than it was in twenty twenty four. Now, now, 145 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 1: that doesn't seem to make much sensible and explain. In 146 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, early voting was kind of new. Early 147 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: in person voting was not had not been established as 148 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 1: long as it had in other places as it had 149 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 1: in New Jersey. So New Jersey voter Democrats had a 150 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:37,680 Speaker 1: sixteen point margin in who showed up in the first 151 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 1: day of early voting. This year, their first day, they 152 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:45,079 Speaker 1: only had a three point margin. That three point margin, though, 153 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: is still better than it was for Democrats in twenty 154 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:50,960 Speaker 1: twenty four, where they only had a one point margins. 155 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: You see, I'm saying Republicans are worse than they were 156 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four when a lot of people showed up, 157 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:56,679 Speaker 1: but better than they were in twenty twenty one, when 158 00:08:56,679 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: no one showed up. Overall, sixty eight thousand, six hundred 159 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: and sixty five Democrats in sixty three thousand, one hundred 160 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: and seventy Republicans voted in person in the first two 161 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: days of early voting. Between mail in voting, which has 162 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 1: been going on for weeks and early person voting. Democrats 163 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 1: are going into the last week of this election with 164 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 1: about two hundred thousand raw vote lead. They've delivered two 165 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:29,079 Speaker 1: hundred thousand more ballots than Republicans. Is that impossible to overcome? 166 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: Not necessarily. Remember there's over one point five million more 167 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:35,319 Speaker 1: Republicans who can cast a ballot that haven't, and we'll 168 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,439 Speaker 1: see how the independent vote splits. But Republicans are starting 169 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 1: off this election about five points behind where they started 170 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four and about ten points behind where 171 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 1: they need to be. There are some places that are 172 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: showing up, you know, like gangbusters for Republicans. Middletown Township 173 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:54,439 Speaker 1: is voting like mad for the GOP. But those of 174 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 1: the exceptions and not the rules I must. I might 175 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,679 Speaker 1: also make a note that Republicans are showing up decently well, 176 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:05,839 Speaker 1: and it's important critical swing state legislative districts now. The 177 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: only silver lining for Republicans in New Jersey right now 178 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 1: is that voter enthusiasm is not even across the Democratic Party. 179 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 1: You're seeing high turnout among white college educated areas, including 180 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: Mikey Cheryl's home district over in Ocean County, which is 181 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: the reddest county in New Jersey. Democrats have about eighty 182 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: percent of their overall early vote numbers from twenty twenty four. 183 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 1: Republicans are about seventy percent. In minority heavy districts, especially 184 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 1: black majority districts, turnout has not been exceptional, though. What 185 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 1: does this mean. It means that there's a there's I mean, 186 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 1: for all the enthusiasm that pollsters said jection really had 187 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: going into this election, maybe they're just waiting for election day. 188 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 1: But the fact that they're going to purchase so many 189 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 1: people on election day because they didn't bank their vote 190 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 1: early cause is cost for concern It's costs for concerned Republicans. 191 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: They're going to have to spend a lot more time 192 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: and more money on election day making sure Republicans show up. 193 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 1: They can win with two hundred thousand votes, but if 194 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: it gets like two hundred and fifty two hundred and 195 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: eighty three hundred thousand Democrat vote advantage, that's going to 196 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: be tough to overcome. I mean, the early vote might 197 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 1: make it such a place that it's over before began. 198 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 1: For Jack Chitarelli. Republicans really need to extremely, extremely maximize 199 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: their early vote and bank those votes, which they happen 200 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 1: so far. Over in Virginia, things are looking better for 201 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 1: Democrats as well Fairfax County, which is a Democratic stronghold. 202 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 1: Now remember Virginia no party registration, so we're talking about 203 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 1: past electoral performances. Fairfax is a reliably strong Democratic area. 204 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 1: They had a gangbuster weekend on Saturday. They were ninety 205 00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:02,200 Speaker 1: one percent of their twenty twenty five or turnout. This 206 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 1: is not news you want to hear if you're win 207 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 1: some series, but most importantly if you're Jason Miarz, who 208 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 1: of the three statewide Republicans running has the best chance 209 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 1: of winning. I'm gonna bring up the silver lining again 210 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 1: though for Miaras, because I mean, I think it's basically 211 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 1: over for winsome Seares, but lestering of the election for Miaras. 212 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 1: Like New Jersey, a lot of black majority areas are 213 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 1: showing low participation so far. The area is on Norfolk, 214 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,079 Speaker 1: Roanoke City, and New important News. These are critical races, 215 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,679 Speaker 1: not just for state wide races, but and state legislative races, 216 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 1: but specific because these are black areas. These are areas 217 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 1: that more than likely would not leave Jay Jones without 218 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: a check next to his name on the ballot. Right, 219 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 1: there may be some college educated areas that say, you 220 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: know what, Jay Jones's comments about killing opponents and murdering children, 221 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 1: it's just too much for me. I can't vote for 222 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:57,559 Speaker 1: Jason Ras. But I'm just going to skip the line. 223 00:12:57,559 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: I'm not going to vote for anybody. I'm gonna leave 224 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: my conscious for. You're probably not going to see as 225 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:04,440 Speaker 1: much of that in the black areas, black majority areas. 226 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: J Jones is the only black candidate running on the 227 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 1: Democratic ticket this year, so the fact that they have 228 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:16,199 Speaker 1: low turnout says quite a bit. Actually, and if Miara 229 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 1: has managed to pull out a sweaker, as some polls suggests, 230 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: it is because turnout in black, working class, black areas 231 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 1: is pretty low. I want to briefly dive into the 232 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 1: California and New York City election. Over in California, Democrats 233 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:34,200 Speaker 1: have been dominating in the returning ballads. Remember, California has 234 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 1: universal mail in ballots, so everyone gets a ballid. California 235 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 1: has received more than two million ballids so far returned. 236 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: They voted over two million, and Democrats have dominated with 237 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 1: fifty one percent of all ballots are turned, while Republicans 238 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:52,080 Speaker 1: have been lagging. Democrats have a nineteen point voter registration 239 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 1: margin and a twenty two percent return margin. So ideally 240 00:13:57,520 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 1: you would like to see that Republican turner is so 241 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 1: high that the Democratic margin of nineteen points is down 242 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:06,319 Speaker 1: to sixteen or fifteen, but it's actually going up, especially 243 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 1: after the No Kings rally. Democrats really have returned the 244 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 1: ballots in high high levels to redistrict Republicans. Basically that 245 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,959 Speaker 1: out of existence in that state. Over in New York City, 246 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 1: which releases New York City votes, registers people by party, 247 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 1: but they don't release the party registration in the early vote. 248 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 1: They release it by burrow. Manhattan and Brooklyn are leading 249 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 1: the way, while Staddn Island and the Bronx are lagging behind. 250 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: That's not good news for Andrew Cuomo. Here's the thing 251 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 1: about New York City, and next segment is only all 252 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 1: about New York. Early voting only started a couple of 253 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 1: years ago. New York didn't have early voting in personally 254 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: voting for like most of my life, so Back in 255 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, there was very, very little impersonally voting, 256 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: so you're going to hear a lot of new stories 257 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 1: about explosive returns compared to twenty twenty one. In twenty 258 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: twenty one, it was so new, very few people did it. Now. 259 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 1: The Gotham has put out an interesting article about the 260 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 1: election so far. So far, in the first two days 261 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 1: of early in person voting, one hundred and sixty four thousand, 262 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 1: one hundred and ninety New Yorker's return to vote. They 263 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: turned up to vote rather over the weekend. Voters over 264 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: the age of fifty five made up fifty percent of them. 265 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 1: The electorate was a lot older, significantly older than the 266 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 1: primary that gave Mandanni his victory. Voters among voters between 267 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 1: the ages of twenty five to thirty four made up 268 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: only sixteen percent of the early vote the first weekend. 269 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 1: That's down nine points from where it was in the primary. 270 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: At this point, the primary, voters between the ages of 271 00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 1: twenty five and thirty four were the largest single group 272 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 1: of people casting ballots. Now they're in a pretty distant 273 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 1: third place. Furthermore, voters between the ages of eighteen and 274 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 1: twenty four cast in the primary, they cast but half 275 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 1: as many ballots as vote over the age of seventy five. 276 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 1: In so far in the general, voters over the age 277 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 1: seventy five have cast three times as many ballads as 278 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 1: voters under the age of twenty four, So that's a 279 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 1: mix back. I mean, where the votes are coming from 280 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 1: is very favorable to Mandanni. The age of the voters 281 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 1: is very favorable to Cuomo. We won't know. I mean, 282 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 1: it's Democrats, so it's all I mean, it depends on 283 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 1: how they're splitting. Puomo was seeing some of his strongest areas, 284 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 1: like the Upper East and Upper West Side, coming out 285 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 1: with big numbers, but other places like heavily black, heavily 286 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 1: Latino districts in the Bronx and in Western Queens are 287 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: sorry Eastern Queens rather are just not showing up. The 288 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: South Bronx has a tenth one tenth of the showing 289 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 1: as the Upper East Side of Manhattan, and they have 290 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 1: purported they've equal populations. It's been done by Assembly district, 291 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: which is population wise, so the college educated white vote 292 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: turning out big, big numbers, probably both for Mandanni and 293 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: for Cuomo. The minor areas that Cuomo really needs he 294 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 1: is lagging pretty significantly. And this is what you're seeing 295 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: in New Jersey, this is what you're seeing in Virginia, 296 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 1: this is what you're seeing in probably California. Working class 297 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 1: voters are not excited about this election. And if it's 298 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 1: a question because Trump's name isn't on the ballot, Trump's 299 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 1: name is likely never going to be on the ballot again. 300 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 1: That's a problem for Republicans. It also is a problem 301 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:27,639 Speaker 1: for Democrats when you look at the black vote. The 302 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 1: fact that the black vote is down in all three 303 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: states from where they hoped it would be maybe gives 304 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: Democrats a little heartburn, a tiny bit of heartburn from 305 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,640 Speaker 1: the hopes that they had of Cuomo pulling an upset 306 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 1: or for New Jersey being closer than they projected. They 307 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 1: want to make sure the black vote shows up, and 308 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:51,440 Speaker 1: so far it hasn't. So that's the trend. In all 309 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 1: three states. College educated, especially white, older voters up in 310 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:58,160 Speaker 1: big numbers. The No Kings group are showing up. Democrats 311 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 1: are showing up, but working class people, especially blacks, are not. 312 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,399 Speaker 1: And Republicans have a lot of catching up to do 313 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: if they want to be competitive in New Jersey, if 314 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 1: they want to save Jason Miaras in Virginia. If they 315 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 1: want to make New California's election competitive, and you know, 316 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 1: make sure Man Donnie Say is under fifty percent of 317 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 1: the vote and possibly Quomo pulls up and upset. They 318 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 1: need to start showing up and showing up very very soon. 319 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 1: Next up, I want to talk to you guys about 320 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: the mayor's race because I've been thinking about it, and 321 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: you know what, Curtis Lee what and Andrew Cuomo, they 322 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 1: have both fumbled royally and in my opinion, neither one 323 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 1: deserves to win. And I'm going to talk about that 324 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:41,879 Speaker 1: coming up next. Okay, So I have been thinking about 325 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,120 Speaker 1: the New Year's mayors race. I'm from New York. If 326 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:48,159 Speaker 1: you guys couldn't tell that by basically every everything about me, 327 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 1: I there's a reason I can't pronount my ours. And 328 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,240 Speaker 1: it's not because I have a lisp. I I but 329 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: I'm from New York my whole life. My fans been 330 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,200 Speaker 1: New York for generations, and the thought of Mendonnie winning 331 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 1: is horrifying. He is a failed theater kid, the most 332 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 1: annoying people on the planet, and I would love nothing 333 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 1: more than to wake up after election day and say 334 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:15,280 Speaker 1: Mandani lost, but Cuomo and Curtius ly what do not 335 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 1: deserve to win? And I wrote about this for my 336 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 1: National Populist newsletter, and I want to talk to you 337 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:26,360 Speaker 1: guys about it. The disgrace former Governor Andrew Cuomo believed 338 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 1: he had this election in the bag from the start. 339 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:34,880 Speaker 1: And other Democrats capable Democrats who are managerial, I don't 340 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 1: want to say moderate, but they're managerial. They can manage 341 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 1: a city. They stayed out of the race because Cuomo 342 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,359 Speaker 1: was supposed to enter it. Catherine Gonzalez, who's not my 343 00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: favorite personal world I don't know if she'd be the 344 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,199 Speaker 1: best mayor, but she's cable of managing a city. I 345 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 1: believe she never ran because Cuomo had this thing locked up. 346 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 1: And the truth is, as I thought about it, Andrew 347 00:19:55,520 --> 00:20:00,360 Speaker 1: Cuomo has never faced a tough election in his entire life. 348 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,239 Speaker 1: His only competitive primary was in the two thousand and 349 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,959 Speaker 1: six race for Attorney General, where he faced a kind 350 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: of a lazy New York politician named Mark Green, who 351 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,119 Speaker 1: he beat by over twenty points, and he was handed 352 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 1: the gouvnatorial nomination on a silver platter. Democrats didn't challenge 353 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:18,359 Speaker 1: him the first time, and when they did challenge him 354 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,880 Speaker 1: for his subsequent reelections, he beat his opponents by thirty points. 355 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:25,680 Speaker 1: His closest election to a Republican, which was in twenty fourteen, 356 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 1: he won by fourteen points. So Cuoma was able to 357 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:31,880 Speaker 1: build a narrative that he was his tough on nails, 358 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 1: hard political animal who was a know Italian and he 359 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 1: was like, you know, mom, boss, he was going to 360 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 1: run you through, he was going to exhaust you. And 361 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:44,400 Speaker 1: really what he was his whole time is this NEPO 362 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 1: baby who was easily intimidated by progressives and centrist alike. 363 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 1: He didn't run for president, which he talked about to 364 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 1: his advisors and they repeated to everybody, everybody in this town, 365 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,200 Speaker 1: I was a northern president. He didn't run, though, because 366 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: he was afraid of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden to 367 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 1: quote unquote moderate Democrats. They're not in the far left. 368 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 1: And despite beating progresses in every primary race, he consistently 369 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,120 Speaker 1: moved to the left on policy and endorsed their candidates 370 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 1: down ballid because he was wanting to win them all 371 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 1: because he was afraid of a challenge. Instead of saying, 372 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 1: screw you, I'm going to destroy your field, I'm gonna 373 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 1: I'm gonna make the threshold to make an official party, 374 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 1: which is what he could do, and he did a 375 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: little bit basically the Ouse the Working Family Party. He 376 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 1: didn't do that for decades. Andrew Cuomo was the governor 377 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 1: with no clothes. And it took Zoramndani to point out 378 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 1: that his ask for showing I mean, it's crazy. So 379 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 1: it comes at a surprise when you hear about it, 380 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 1: but not at a surprise when you think about it 381 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 1: that at sixty seven he's incapable of doing doing something 382 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 1: he's never done before, which is campaigning. I mean, it's 383 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:54,880 Speaker 1: really shocking how he's dropped the ball a most basic 384 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 1: campaign strategies, like buying oppos position research. I don't know 385 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,679 Speaker 1: if he didn't do it, but I highly doubt that. 386 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 1: We're just hear him at all the Zoran stuff for 387 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: the first time weeks before the election. Had he bought it, 388 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 1: he would have blasted that. And he's always thought that 389 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,439 Speaker 1: he could make this election a winning election for him 390 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:15,439 Speaker 1: if it was a two man race, if it was 391 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 1: just him versus Zoran, that required Eric Adams and Curtis 392 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:22,639 Speaker 1: Lye would drop out, meaning he would need Republicans to 393 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 1: vote for him. That's the thing with Curtis. He has 394 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 1: the Republican line, and he thought Cuomo thought that he 395 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 1: could be he could gain that Republican support by just 396 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:38,200 Speaker 1: not being Zora. Here's the crazy about Andrew Quillman. And 397 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:39,679 Speaker 1: I know this is hard to believe if you're not 398 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,439 Speaker 1: a New Yorker, and if you're not someone with a 399 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 1: long memory. Andrew Quoma, when he first ran for governor, 400 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 1: cast himself as the man who could work across the 401 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:52,400 Speaker 1: out Remember in twenty ten when he first ran, Republicans 402 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 1: controlled the New York State Senate. He had to work 403 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,359 Speaker 1: with Republicans, and he delivered on things like property tax 404 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,439 Speaker 1: freezes and tax cuts first all businesses that they that 405 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 1: they advanced, while delivering things like gay marriage legalization for Democrats. 406 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,440 Speaker 1: Then come twenty eighteen when they had the progressive wave 407 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:14,720 Speaker 1: and Cynthia Nixon challenging him, and Cuomo abandoned everything, every 408 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,919 Speaker 1: moderate position he possibly had out the window. And then 409 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 1: COVID happened, and forget about it. He was like a 410 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 1: straight dictator. He went completely crazy. But that old, that 411 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,160 Speaker 1: sense memory for that Cuomo who could be a man 412 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 1: for all seasons, a man for all people, a man 413 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 1: who work across the aisle. It hasn't re emerged that 414 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,880 Speaker 1: whole get back on the bicycle. Andrew Quimo just never 415 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 1: showed up. And Republicans in New York City, they're starving 416 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 1: for victories, right, they would take crumbs from Andrew Cuomo. 417 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 1: So if he sat there and said, Hey, Republicans in 418 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 1: New York City, I will indorse your city council candidates 419 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,879 Speaker 1: running for reelection. I will endorse the Common Sense Coalition, 420 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 1: which is a bipartisan group of Democrats and Republicans who 421 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 1: support things like tough on crime laws and specialize high schools. 422 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 1: He could have he could have acknowledged mistakes he made 423 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 1: during COVID or apologize for the fact that he said 424 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 1: pro lifers don't belong in New York State. He could 425 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,920 Speaker 1: have done anything, and he did nothing. He thought, Hey, 426 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 1: I am not Zoron and that will be enough for Republicans. 427 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 1: And he's learning the hard way that that is not true. 428 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 1: That Republicans need something for you to vote for them, 429 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:35,199 Speaker 1: not just vote against somebody. And I just think that 430 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:39,159 Speaker 1: maybe Antrecuin was never a talented politician. Maybe he just 431 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,639 Speaker 1: happened to have a D behind his name in a 432 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 1: state that elects Democrats except when the moon is full 433 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 1: and health freezes over, which in New York happens every 434 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 1: thirty to forty years. And you know, I've been part 435 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 1: of losing campaigns. They suck. It's it's awful to be 436 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 1: part of a losing campaign. But Cuomo is going to 437 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,919 Speaker 1: end this campaign not saying, hey, I left it all 438 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 1: on the field. Everything I could he's got. He's gonna 439 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: lose his campaign without even putting his cleats on. He 440 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,159 Speaker 1: could have done so much more. So on that front, 441 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 1: he deserves to lose. He won one hundred percent. Deserves 442 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:14,159 Speaker 1: to lose. Now. Curtis leew on the other hand, also 443 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 1: deserves to lose because having worked in Republican politics for 444 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 1: as long as I have, especially in New York City, 445 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,920 Speaker 1: you it's a very small circle. You know. I've met 446 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 1: Curtis a bunch of times, starting in twenty twenty, I 447 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 1: think with the first time that he ran, where he 448 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 1: earned just twenty eight percent of the vote. Now, since 449 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,120 Speaker 1: that last election in twenty twenty one, he never really 450 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,920 Speaker 1: stopped running for mayor. He's been running for five years. 451 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,560 Speaker 1: But despite running for half a decade with the full 452 00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 1: back end that gup. He had no primary challenge, right, 453 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 1: and he's been running in a state that has substantially 454 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:52,520 Speaker 1: moved towards Republicans in the subsequent last three presidential elections. 455 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,880 Speaker 1: Think of this. In twenty sixteen, Trump in New York 456 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,879 Speaker 1: City got seventeen percent of the vote, In twenty twenty 457 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,200 Speaker 1: he got twenty two point seven percent of the vote, 458 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 1: and in twenty twenty four he got thirty point five 459 00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,639 Speaker 1: percent of vosts. So he went from seventeen to almost 460 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:09,440 Speaker 1: thirty one. So despite Curtis running in a state, in 461 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 1: a city that is moving substantially to the right, running 462 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 1: for five years longer than anybody else is running, he 463 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 1: only cracked twenty percent in two poles out of the 464 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: dozens taken since May. And you know that's not right 465 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,679 Speaker 1: or fair or you know, I'm not saying that. You know, 466 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 1: poles are everything, but for many New Yorkers, whether they 467 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 1: are right or wrong, and it Curtis Leewal comes off cartoonish. 468 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 1: He's got the Braton and he's has the accent of 469 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:40,400 Speaker 1: a New York, of a bygone era, a New York 470 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:43,199 Speaker 1: that I love, but a New York of a bygun era. Nonetheless, 471 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:48,120 Speaker 1: and it's tough to hear, but he never did the 472 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,760 Speaker 1: things you would need to do to start cracking into 473 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 1: the twenties or thirties and really gaining traction. Sleetwa has said, 474 00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 1: and I have independently confirmed that he was offered ten 475 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 1: million dollars to drop out of the race and promised 476 00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:07,879 Speaker 1: millions in seed money to build an international security business 477 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:11,919 Speaker 1: for the Guardian Angels. He turned all that down. He 478 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 1: turned down the idea of having generational wealth for his children, 479 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:23,439 Speaker 1: security for himself, all for this doomed race. What he 480 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 1: should have done was not only in my opinion, I 481 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 1: accept that, but he should have sat there and said, 482 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,639 Speaker 1: I will do this if you secure more promises for 483 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 1: Republicans running for office. Get Cuomo and his allies and 484 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 1: the unions and his big money allies to poor money 485 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 1: for Republican candidates running for city council and for local 486 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 1: office in the city. Give them a fighting chance. For 487 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 1: the first time ever, Republicans running for council are constantly 488 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 1: looked down upon and constantly ignored, and there's a real 489 00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 1: opportunity for Republicans to make gains this year. There's at 490 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:02,920 Speaker 1: least three seats I can think of, and actually, for 491 00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 1: Republicans actually had a real party mode moving, they'd have 492 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,000 Speaker 1: a chance probably have five seats in the city Council 493 00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 1: and those would be people to push back against Mandani 494 00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,080 Speaker 1: if he were to become mayor, which he likely is right, 495 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,080 Speaker 1: So he could have actually used his immense leverage to 496 00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 1: help the city's GOP instead of making it about himself. 497 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,640 Speaker 1: He could have passed the baton onto a dozen Republicans 498 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:32,359 Speaker 1: running for a local office. Given the Republican county parties, 499 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 1: which are functionally have very little money, real money, he 500 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,360 Speaker 1: could have made all these deals and instead he's saying 501 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 1: he stick with his integrity, which that's great, but your 502 00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 1: integrity plus two dollars ninety cents will get you on 503 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:47,240 Speaker 1: the subway in New York. Right, this leverage he could 504 00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,840 Speaker 1: have built for Republicans is probably a one time thing 505 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:55,239 Speaker 1: and he threw it all away. And that, as a 506 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 1: consultant makes my blood boil. It just makes my blood boil. 507 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 1: They want better for the Republican Party of New York 508 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 1: City than their nominee for mayor that wants for them, 509 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:11,160 Speaker 1: and that's what's tragic. Okay, on to Ask Me Anything 510 00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:17,000 Speaker 1: that's coming up next. Now it's time for the Ask 511 00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:18,880 Speaker 1: Me Anything. If you guys want part of the Ask 512 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 1: Me Anything segment, email me Ryan at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. 513 00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 1: That's Ryan at numbers Plural gamepodcast dot com. Love getting 514 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,400 Speaker 1: these questions. I have a ton to go through, so 515 00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 1: I'm going to do too today. First question comes from Tristan. 516 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 1: He would love to hear some talk about the VRA 517 00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:37,240 Speaker 1: Section two, possibly, you know, because they have the Scotus 518 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:39,719 Speaker 1: decision coming out about it and their hearing is about it. 519 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 1: What let me go into So Section two of the 520 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 1: Voting Rights Act, which was of nineteen sixty five, prohibits 521 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:49,320 Speaker 1: they quote voting qualifications or pre records it to vote, 522 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,480 Speaker 1: or standard practice or procedure by a state or political 523 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:56,440 Speaker 1: subdivision that results in a denial or abridgment of the 524 00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,520 Speaker 1: right of any citizen to vote on account of race 525 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 1: or color. Importantly, in nineteen eighty two, Congress amended section 526 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 1: two to eliminate the requirement approving discriminatory intent in many 527 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 1: cases and instead allows suits based on discrimination effect right 528 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:18,680 Speaker 1: the vote dilusion. So even if the intent is not there, 529 00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 1: but the result is explicitly discriminatory in practice, then therefore 530 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 1: it's against the Section two of the Voting Rights Act, 531 00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,320 Speaker 1: and that's the part that is being challenged. The law 532 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,160 Speaker 1: allows challenges based on effect, not just in, which raises 533 00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 1: questions about how it's grounded in the Constitution via the 534 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 1: fourteenth and fifteenth Amendment. The Louisiana versus Callias case, which 535 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,480 Speaker 1: is the one that Supreme Court is hearing right now, 536 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 1: sets the reargument or whether Section to itself remains constitutional 537 00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 1: because of those changes. In a redistricting contest, some justices 538 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:57,360 Speaker 1: have signaled openness to narrowing Section two scope, for example, 539 00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 1: limiting to how long race content districting can continue. Courts 540 00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:07,400 Speaker 1: use the totality of circumstances tests guided by a set 541 00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,920 Speaker 1: of factors sometimes called the Senate factors, including history, discrimination 542 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,400 Speaker 1: or racial polarization, or whether a minority candidates have been elected. 543 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:18,480 Speaker 1: There's a debate really whether Section two allows for claims 544 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:24,000 Speaker 1: purely under the intent theory and only under a result theory. 545 00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 1: I e. Like the results is discriminatory because a Democrat 546 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:32,680 Speaker 1: wasn't elected. That's a really big part of it. I 547 00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 1: think it looks like the Supreme Court is going to 548 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:42,760 Speaker 1: at least at the very least limit of the Voting 549 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,600 Speaker 1: Rights Act. So that may may say, hey, in the 550 00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 1: redistricting of Louisiana and Alabama, the two black majority districts 551 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,560 Speaker 1: drawn for Democrats because they have to be drawn so 552 00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:58,960 Speaker 1: Democrats can win, is unconstitutional. They should be stricken down. 553 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 1: And in the future redistricting guidelines are like this, and 554 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,680 Speaker 1: if they go full ham, they may sit there and 555 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,960 Speaker 1: say the VRA Section two is entirely unconstitutional. At this point, 556 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 1: you know, it maybe had an attent back in the 557 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,720 Speaker 1: nineteen sixties. America's demographics are not like they were in 558 00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 1: the nineteen sixties. Therefore, strike the whole thing down. If 559 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 1: the whole thing is struck down, Republicans in the South 560 00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:27,840 Speaker 1: and the Deep South especially are going to go on 561 00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:32,840 Speaker 1: a binge redistricting and it would result in Republicans gaining 562 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:38,160 Speaker 1: probably twelve to fourteen more seats. Right, they could redistrict Memphis, 563 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:42,160 Speaker 1: they could redistrict Alabama and Louisiana. They can redistrict all 564 00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:45,280 Speaker 1: the blue states in Mississippi the one blue SA Mississippi, 565 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 1: but Georgia and in Florida. There's just a lot on 566 00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:52,600 Speaker 1: the table there. If they strike this down, which I 567 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:54,240 Speaker 1: mean We'll see if they do or not. But that's 568 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 1: really what it's about. It's about the fact that is 569 00:32:56,080 --> 00:33:00,280 Speaker 1: their intent. If there's no intent involved with indiscrimination, does 570 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:04,040 Speaker 1: the law still stand? Okay? Next question comes from Frank. 571 00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,480 Speaker 1: He says, Hi, Ryan, I have a question of immigration 572 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,440 Speaker 1: I've wondered about for a long time. I've heard before 573 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:12,240 Speaker 1: the significant portion, maybe even most, of illegal aliens in 574 00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,640 Speaker 1: the US are people overstay their visa. I've driven to 575 00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 1: Canada before, and I believe I got some sort of 576 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,800 Speaker 1: permission at the border to cross over. I'm not sure 577 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,479 Speaker 1: that's considered a visa. It's not considered a visa. I 578 00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:24,720 Speaker 1: assume that we do that for people who drive up 579 00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 1: from Mexico. We do do that for people who drive 580 00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 1: up from Mexico. If a Mexican drove to the US 581 00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,400 Speaker 1: told the border agent that he'd be here for a weekend, 582 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,520 Speaker 1: then stay for ten years, woulut being considered a visa overstay. Now, 583 00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,320 Speaker 1: like you're talking about truck drivers, they usually have a 584 00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:42,080 Speaker 1: trucking license that they are permitted with. That's not a 585 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:46,400 Speaker 1: visa overstay, and they rarely, by the way, overstay their visas. 586 00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:49,520 Speaker 1: They sometimes bring illegals into their trucks, but they don't 587 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:52,719 Speaker 1: overstay their visas much. Liberals wind about visa overstays as 588 00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:54,960 Speaker 1: if they have genuine doctors who just forgot to renew 589 00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 1: their student visas after graduating from Harvard. But I wondered, 590 00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:01,800 Speaker 1: what truly, just what? What are truly just visitors who 591 00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:05,560 Speaker 1: never go back? Okay, So mainly overstate visas are people 592 00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:09,320 Speaker 1: who come in through either tourist visas, business student visas, 593 00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,520 Speaker 1: or exchange visas or temporary work visas. Right, those are 594 00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,000 Speaker 1: the ones, those are the big ones. Tourist visas are 595 00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,040 Speaker 1: a lot of them. People who say they're going to 596 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:18,319 Speaker 1: be here for a week to tour and then they 597 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:22,320 Speaker 1: just never go back. Nearly forty percent of all illegal 598 00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,840 Speaker 1: immigrants who came in twenty twenty three are visas over stays, 599 00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:33,040 Speaker 1: so about five hundred thousand. The largest the largest countries 600 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 1: come from outside of Latin America. When you hear what 601 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,120 Speaker 1: people being crossed up to the border, those are mostly 602 00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:42,840 Speaker 1: Latin American and Mexican immigrants. Those are not everybody. Some 603 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 1: places like India, for example, have a lot of these overstates. 604 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,360 Speaker 1: I think nineteen thousand number seventh overall. So in twenty 605 00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:50,920 Speaker 1: twenty three, which is the last numbers that I have. 606 00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:55,440 Speaker 1: They are about five hundred thousand people who were visa 607 00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,400 Speaker 1: overstates and about eight hundred and sixty thousand who cross 608 00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:02,480 Speaker 1: the border. That means four in ten all of new 609 00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,879 Speaker 1: illegal immigrants are visa overstays. As I said, you know, 610 00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,080 Speaker 1: India ranks number seven, but they're not and it's the 611 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,600 Speaker 1: highest non Latin American or Caribbean country that is visa 612 00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:19,360 Speaker 1: over stays the over But it's funny which countries have 613 00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:23,520 Speaker 1: dispropart portionnately a large percentage of visa overstays. So the 614 00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 1: number one country for visa over stays actually is the 615 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:29,239 Speaker 1: nation of Chad over in Africa. Almost fifty percent people 616 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,560 Speaker 1: who get a visa to the United States from Chad 617 00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:36,880 Speaker 1: across the will become overstays. Countries like Equatorial Guinea is 618 00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,799 Speaker 1: thirty three percent, Manamar is thirty three percent, Haiti is 619 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:43,719 Speaker 1: thirty one percent, Congo is twenty nine percent, Sudan is 620 00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,920 Speaker 1: twenty five percent. Countries that you would think of, like 621 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:50,359 Speaker 1: with large illegal alien populations like Mexico. Mexico's only one 622 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,880 Speaker 1: and a half percent of their illegal populations visa overstates. 623 00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:56,080 Speaker 1: It's most people who come across the border, so that's 624 00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,000 Speaker 1: really the difference. So no, it's not a majority of 625 00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:02,680 Speaker 1: people who are here illegally. Is a very very very 626 00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:06,640 Speaker 1: high percentage. I think at one point in the oughts 627 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,520 Speaker 1: it was a majority, but it was very briefly and 628 00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:12,600 Speaker 1: then under Biden, of course, that completely changed. The new 629 00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,720 Speaker 1: visa overstays though, are a significant portion of forty percent, 630 00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:19,840 Speaker 1: and they are mostly Taurus student or business visas that 631 00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:23,000 Speaker 1: were not renewed. Anyway, thank you for listening to the show. 632 00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:24,799 Speaker 1: I hope you got a lot out of it. I 633 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:28,080 Speaker 1: will be back on Thursday. Check out that episode. And 634 00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:30,160 Speaker 1: if you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on 635 00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:32,960 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app. Have a podcast wherever you get your 636 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:33,480 Speaker 1: podcast