WEBVTT - How to Prevent AI From Causing an Economic Catastrophe 0:00:02.560 --> 0:00:08.800 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:09.640 --> 0:00:13.560 Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome to the stage Maren's Somerset Web. 0:00:21.880 --> 0:00:25.120 Hello, Maren Talks Money Listeners, It's Meren Sunset Web. Before 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:27.480 we get back to our regular programming in early September, 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:30.280 we are bringing you something very special, recordings of the 0:00:30.280 --> 0:00:34.080 conversations I had at Pania House for the Edinburgh Fringe Festival. Now, 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:36.159 for those of you who don't know, the Fringe is 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:38.519 a three week arts and culture festival that began in 0:00:38.600 --> 0:00:40.760 nineteen forty seven and it takes place in Edinburgh and 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:44.360 Scotland every August. For the past few years I have 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:48.840 been hosting conversations about markets, economics and investing from one 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:52.120 of the most special locations in Edinburgh as part of 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:55.000 this festival. I do it from Panmia House, which is 0:00:55.040 --> 0:00:57.800 the last home of Adam Smith, philosopher and father of 0:00:57.800 --> 0:01:00.920 modern economics, is where he completed the last editions of 0:01:01.000 --> 0:01:03.840 his best sellers, The Theory of Moral Sentiments and The 0:01:03.880 --> 0:01:06.800 Wealth of Nations. This year we did a three day 0:01:06.880 --> 0:01:08.360 run to was the end of August, and we are 0:01:08.400 --> 0:01:12.200 bringing you the slightly edited conversations from those three days. 0:01:12.680 --> 0:01:15.240 The panel I hosted on the second day, featured again 0:01:15.280 --> 0:01:18.920 Bloomberg senior reporter John Steppek, also Richard Wilson, CEO of 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:23.880 the UK second largest investment platform, Interactive Investor, and Dominic Frisbee, 0:01:23.959 --> 0:01:27.959 author of the Flying Frisbee investment newsletter and also author 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:29.520 of a new book just out. 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:31.880 Called The Secret History of Gold. 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:36.160 I think we will probably go straight into the show 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:38.080 because you all know my jokes from last year already. 0:01:38.080 --> 0:01:39.480 There was no point in going through them again. 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:43.640 I have three excellent guests, and what we're going to 0:01:43.720 --> 0:01:45.640 do is keep the format exactly as it has. 0:01:45.560 --> 0:01:46.240 Been in the past. 0:01:46.480 --> 0:01:49.080 Everyone's going to tell me their favorite Adam Smith quote. 0:01:49.080 --> 0:01:50.800 Well it's not quite their favoritecause everyone's got quite a 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:52.680 lot of favorites. John, how many favorites have you got 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:56.880 at least haven? And then we're going to talk around 0:01:57.480 --> 0:01:59.640 their quote. So we're going to The idea is to 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:01.760 make it a very open conversation between the panel. 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:04.400 So my guests on my right, I've got John Stappek. 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:06.600 Who lots of you probably know already. John writes the 0:02:06.640 --> 0:02:09.480 Money Just Sold newsletter for Bloomberg. On my left of 0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:12.320 Dominic Frisbee, who has just written a brilliant new book, 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:15.360 The Secret History of Gold, and you will know I 0:02:15.360 --> 0:02:17.040 think it's brilliant because I say so on the back 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:17.480 of the book. 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:20.000 You do say, you say it is possibly the best 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:23.280 timed book ever. What a lovely endorsement. 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:27.200 Thank you, my pleasure. Dominic also writes the frying, Frying, 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:29.640 Flying Frisbee newsletter. 0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:30.720 And on my. 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:33.960 Far left we have Richard Wilson, who is the CEO 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:37.639 of Interactive Investor and the COO of Aberdeen Asset Management, 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:41.960 right right, the first quote is going to come from Richard. 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:45.200 And thank you very much for having me today, and 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:46.320 hello everybody. 0:02:46.600 --> 0:02:48.919 So my quote was. 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:54.840 Labor was the first price, the original purchase money that 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:57.920 was paid for all things. It was not by gold 0:02:57.960 --> 0:03:00.760 or by silver, but by labor that all wealth of 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:04.680 the world was originally purchased. And I'll sit in there 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:10.080 obviously mulling over that and thinking about our current reflections 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:13.920 on technology and AI, and you've kind of have to 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:16.240 and there's I think there are two different views of 0:03:16.280 --> 0:03:18.920 this story. There's a view of AI that it's a 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:22.399 life enriching thing that everyone will have, you know, their 0:03:22.480 --> 0:03:25.639 roles will be enhanced and there will be time to 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:29.040 invest in the things that you enjoy. 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:32.960 And then there's the sharp end that I work in, where. 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:37.120 I have about a thousand people in I are working 0:03:37.240 --> 0:03:42.960 very hard to make you fabulously wealthy and happy, and 0:03:43.040 --> 0:03:46.160 every day we're trying to improve our efficiencies so we 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:51.320 can improve our experience and ultimately improve our price position. 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:55.600 But the raality is is that we have in our 0:03:56.160 --> 0:03:59.520 company every year currently now we see you're probably twenty 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:02.240 five percent and improvement in productivity. 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:04.040 This year as an. 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:07.840 Example, year to date this year versus last year, we're 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:09.920 twenty percent bigger than we were last year, thank you 0:04:10.000 --> 0:04:10.400 very much. 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:13.640 But we have ten percent less calls. 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:16.760 That come into our contact center, and those calls are 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:20.560 handled about fifteen percent faster because of the tools that 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:21.280 are available. 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:24.120 Can I interrupt quickly to ask you when you say 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:25.359 there are fewer calls coming in? 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:26.760 Why are their fewer calls coming in? 0:04:26.800 --> 0:04:28.760 Because people are finding the answer to their questions why 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:30.320 are the chabbot or something like that. 0:04:30.360 --> 0:04:32.800 So it's a great question, and we look at that 0:04:32.920 --> 0:04:36.560 as if we're kind of we master all of our information. 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:41.840 And I think there are several factors, but one of 0:04:41.839 --> 0:04:45.920 them is the experience is just better because you don't. Obviously, 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:48.040 customers call in to tell me how wonderful they think 0:04:48.080 --> 0:04:50.800 I am. See if that's never happened. 0:04:51.240 --> 0:04:51.839 It will now. 0:04:52.760 --> 0:04:54.159 So they call in because they're. 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:57.880 Struggling to find the answer to a problem or a decision, 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:01.159 or they're not happy with something, and if your experience 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:04.719 is better, you have less reason to call. And theres 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:09.279 an example last year in terms of basic coding, nearly 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:12.160 two million lines of code was written by AI for us, 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:15.240 and we wouldn't put ourselves out to be particularly special, 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:20.719 so part of that is just the experience being learning 0:05:20.800 --> 0:05:23.200 faster to help more people. So we've about half a 0:05:23.200 --> 0:05:28.400 million customers, different age, demographic, behavior norms, context. The experience 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:31.480 needs to be something that works for each of those individuals, 0:05:31.520 --> 0:05:34.640 and they don't. One person's simple is not the same 0:05:34.680 --> 0:05:37.440 as somebody else's, so it needs to be adaptive and smart. 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:40.560 So you've got that picture and a look more broadly. 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:44.320 In the UK today we have about one point three 0:05:44.360 --> 0:05:48.520 million people work in contact centers, ne hundred thousand people 0:05:49.120 --> 0:05:52.760 are work in software development, four hundred thousand people are 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:57.000 taxi drivers, four hundred thousand people are in HGV or delivery, 0:05:57.400 --> 0:05:58.960 and another six or one thousand in. 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:02.279 Other those roles. 0:06:02.279 --> 0:06:05.560 As I look at what's happening to us, you can 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:11.080 see quite rapidly some of those roles simply disappearing because 0:06:11.160 --> 0:06:13.200 the machine just does it fast. 0:06:13.240 --> 0:06:15.279 And my worry for us. 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:17.520 Is that I think today we've got some like thirty 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:22.080 three million people in employment in the UK that we're 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:24.560 going to see us in the next three four five 0:06:24.640 --> 0:06:28.800 years a material shift which is going to challenge some 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:31.640 of the basic premise about what the price of the 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:34.640 value of labor is and the ability to reskill is 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:38.440 going to be very, very difficult. And it wouldn't surprise 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:42.359 me if we're talking about structure on employment which is 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:46.599 one two three million over the next three to five years, 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:48.360 which is very hard to deal with. 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:52.320 But on the other hand, the very thing that you're 0:06:52.360 --> 0:06:55.000 talking about is the great productivity revolution that we've been 0:06:55.000 --> 0:06:57.839 waiting for for so long that could transform the way 0:06:57.880 --> 0:06:59.599 that the economy works in general. 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:03.520 But that's okay, there's that thesis. 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:05.800 Now you look at somewhere, if you're looking at somewhere 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:08.680 in the Midlands where the only employer in the town 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:11.640 is the contact center, and they have more than one 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:15.480 generation in the contact center, and the people who run 0:07:15.520 --> 0:07:18.800 the local shop run because people of the contact center 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:22.920 spend their money there. The notion that skills are fungible 0:07:23.120 --> 0:07:26.040 and or mobile and the ability to learn new skills 0:07:26.120 --> 0:07:28.680 is a single generational thing. I think it's just made 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:31.360 up where I come from. When they close the opencast 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:36.160 minds and the textile mills, those jobs, that was a 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:39.800 two generation issue. If you took massive action to try 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:44.480 and fix it it, otherwise you created significant social and dislocation. 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:47.680 And I think my sense is that that's without massive action, 0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:50.560 that's where we'll be. What kind of action you need 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:54.520 to have forced forestry skilling. You've got to have enormous 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:57.480 incentives to learn new skills, which have to be sponsored 0:07:57.560 --> 0:08:01.000 at a state level, or you'll you'll end up with 0:08:01.760 --> 0:08:04.880 the case in Dundee. We know that post the timeclosure, 0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:09.320 thirty years of a structural social whole because you haven't 0:08:10.080 --> 0:08:13.440 forced the community to move into new skills. 0:08:13.680 --> 0:08:15.160 Okay, what are these new skills? 0:08:15.200 --> 0:08:17.200 Because this is a question that I mean, we're talking 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:19.280 about questions right now, but you're all thinking when it 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:21.320 comes to question time, you're going to ask what are 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:22.120 my children learned? 0:08:22.120 --> 0:08:24.000 What skills are my children gap? What do they study. 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:24.840 What's going to be left? 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:28.200 Well, certainly, I mean from when I look at what 0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:30.720 we're I mean, the health care is an enormous thing. 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:33.640 Data is an enormous thing. And data it's not going 0:08:33.679 --> 0:08:37.040 to be simple data analysis because the machine will do 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:39.880 all that. This is data from a kind of a 0:08:39.960 --> 0:08:44.120 neuroscience perspective, where you're learning how people's brains function, the 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:47.079 response to data so you can improve outcomes for them, 0:08:47.559 --> 0:08:51.320 the ability to understand the structure of information. So data 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:56.360 health education they will be. And obviously today defense there 0:08:56.400 --> 0:09:02.120 will be big things tomorrow, all these mechanical skills, coding, answering, phones, 0:09:02.920 --> 0:09:07.280 doing accounting. Most accounting work is collating information or gone, 0:09:08.320 --> 0:09:10.960 and god help us the self driving cars that shall 0:09:11.000 --> 0:09:12.240 be emerging fairly soon. 0:09:13.320 --> 0:09:15.880 You're saying that it sounds like all the lower end 0:09:16.000 --> 0:09:18.680 jobs will be gone and only higher end jobs will remain. 0:09:19.040 --> 0:09:21.320 Yep, So you have a situation where you have and 0:09:21.360 --> 0:09:23.680 you have a real situation because that gives you social unrest. 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:27.520 Yeah, gives you again as if income disparities, wealth disparities 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:29.360 and no end of problems, which might bring us back 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:31.520 to universal basic income, so we can return to in 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:33.679 a minute, except rhin. Now Dominic is desperate to say something. 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:37.400 Well, I just wanted to ask a question. Is like, 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:40.440 I can just see, you know a lot of people 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:43.440 just sinking into the welfare trap, the same welfare trap 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:46.559 that all the miners fell into in the in the eighties. 0:09:47.160 --> 0:09:49.960 And you know, is welfare the answer? 0:09:50.600 --> 0:09:53.560 Well, it can't be the answer because it's unproductive. I mean, 0:09:53.600 --> 0:09:55.400 where I came from, you had more than one generation 0:09:55.480 --> 0:10:00.239 on welfare, so that was that became normalized, and that 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:02.800 that creates all sorts of side effects that we'll read 0:10:02.800 --> 0:10:06.760 the stats about and drug abuse and various olids. So 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:08.960 you can't let that happen. You've got to You've got 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:11.400 to fire hose the skill set and force it out, 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:15.040 create incentives, push people to actually do things that choose 0:10:15.040 --> 0:10:19.120 not to do because humans are pretty I am pretty lazy. 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:22.000 If you don't force it and force that people to 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:24.760 take those risks, you will end up with a welfare 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:25.920 trap which you can't get out of. 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:28.680 Now you're talking about massive changes to the welfare system 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:30.079 and changing the incentives built. 0:10:29.920 --> 0:10:30.360 Into the world. 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:31.520 You actually have to do that is. 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:33.680 The kind of thing that won't happen for a long time. 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:36.720 For those who don't take those actions and welfare you 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:40.360 have to frankly provide penalties if they don't take those actions. 0:10:41.720 --> 0:10:46.520 Yeah, I mean, that's that's extraordinarily definitely cult a suppose 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:48.720 and then that is the whole point of it. Well, 0:10:48.840 --> 0:10:53.120 and then what are the actually landin if the reate 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:56.280 at which EA is starting to suck the jobs out 0:10:56.320 --> 0:11:00.199 of the market is that high? I mean, what was 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:02.920 the thing? Because I guess I always kind of go 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:05.360 back to the thing of but every time we say 0:11:05.440 --> 0:11:08.200 technology is going to replace jobs and actually we do 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:11.800 end up being fine or having new ones. And you're right, 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:15.079 the local communities that are screwed over by these things 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:18.439 aren't fine, and we should find a solution to that. 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:22.280 But in terms of things like mass unemployment that robots 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:25.200 were going to cause, like twenty years ago, that kind 0:11:25.200 --> 0:11:26.880 of thing hasn't happened to you. I mean, do you 0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:29.400 think that AI really is the game changer on that 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:31.319 front or well? 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:33.920 The answer of course is who knows. But I look 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:37.880 at what we're doing today, which is accelerating and it 0:11:38.000 --> 0:11:42.760 I mean, the power of this stuff is extraordinary. It's 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:46.280 just extraordinary, and it moves not just what it does, 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:49.000 but the right it's learning is extraordinary. So we have 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:54.440 now you have a context where we'll receive ten thousand 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.559 bits of correspondence a day, and we have a bunch 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:00.760 of people whose job it is to ee all that, 0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:02.599 put it in a file and send it to the 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:07.520 right person. The machine within sixty days had learned how 0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:09.960 to do all that kind of ninety nine point four 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:11.880 percent accuracy and. 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:15.599 Just did it. And you're thinking, again, Okay, that's a 0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:17.560 bit uncomfortable, but. 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:21.079 It also feels like in a world of falling fertility 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:24.600 and falling population growth, etc. This seems like a wonderful 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:26.560 thing in that we have fewer workers. We're going to 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:28.959 have many fewer workers going forward, and at the moment 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:30.960 we try and solve what turns out to be a 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:35.120 non existent problem with immigration, but possibly the. 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:36.359 Problem doesn't exist. 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:40.640 We don't need a rising workforce, and so yours a 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:42.560 it seems like the solution to all the problems that 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:43.280 are running through air. 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:47.320 Right, although you have an aging population as well and 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:52.720 a pay as you go social system, so you bankrupt 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:55.880 yourself in the meantime because you can't who's going to 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:57.600 pay my bills in my eighties? 0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:00.920 Because it's making it very difficult to make this conversation 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:03.319 go in an optimistic direction, really. 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:06.400 Doing the opportunity. But you have to skill up. This 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:08.960 is a thing. You can't sit back and when. 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:13.760 Wait, I'll say something, I sort of take up on 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:17.240 John's point that that I mean, I am absolutely captivated 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:19.600 by everything you say, but I sort of take up 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:21.680 on John's point that a lot of these things we 0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:23.000 say it's going to happen, and then we find a 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:26.160 way of muddling through that said, I mean, having sat 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:29.040 in a self driving Tesla in Florida earlier in the 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:32.720 year and gone, this is a far better driver than 0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:37.520 I am. And you know I'm an okay driver, and 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:40.040 but but you know, I just think I just think 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:43.520 driver's cars are pretty much inevitable. And the main barrier 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.840 is regulatory and so you know that's the government's choice 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:49.280 when they want to allow it, and you know they 0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:52.800 can stop it happening, but you know, it just means 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.880 we'll lose because we'll be less productive. But in any case, 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:58.080 so that's you know, a million jobs, is it We're 0:13:58.080 --> 0:13:58.880 going to lose a driver. 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:01.360 Or the tax hit drivers there are four hundred thousand, 0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:05.360 and then there are three hundred thousand HTV drivers another 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.440 six hundred thousand delivery drivers. 0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:11.120 Okay, so according to Lama for so maybe so one 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:13.200 point three million driving jobs, it's going to go to 0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:15.600 We're going to lose between half a million and a 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:16.520 million jobs, aren't we. 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:19.000 That is a superb thing. I mean self driving cars 0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:19.520 would be late. 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:24.760 But the question is is not whether it's a wonderful 0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:26.720 thing for the consumer. It's a great experience, and the 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:30.360 question is between that point and the next opportunity for 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:33.440 that community, how do you get there? And how much 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:36.280 is there is a is it a shock versus a transition? 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:39.360 To ask you a question of you dominic that again, 0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:42.560 I'm trying to I'm taking all your conscience in. I 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:44.760 know what you're thinking about, and you're thinking exactly what 0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:47.560 I'm thinking, which is that when the roads are full 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:51.240 of self driving cars, surely nothing will ever move because 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:54.160 every teenager, I know, every teenager in Scotland will amuse 0:14:54.160 --> 0:14:55.680 themselves by running up and down the road so that 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:56.880 all the cars constantly stop. 0:14:57.280 --> 0:14:58.600 So that's what self driving cars do. 0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:01.400 Every time there's anything front of them, they immediately have 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:03.040 to stop because they must preserve life. 0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:03.720 And if I was a. 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:06.640 Fifteen year old boy. I mean, I can already see myself. Yeah, 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:07.680 my life is spent. 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:11.720 No, but because all trucks fill between nine pm and 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:14.800 three am, you won't see them anymore because they'll optimize 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:20.640 their their their No, they because they don't need to sleep. 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:22.480 They just manage and they don't need to be far apart. 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:27.680 You'll have convoys of aerodynamic vehicles three feet apart between 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:29.160 ten pm and three o'clock in the morning. 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:31.920 Doesn't really answer my question, but I'll agree to move on. 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:34.280 You said Merin that it was a low end job 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:38.280 thing like as those of you that know me, I 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:41.840 do about seventy three different jobs, and one of them 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:44.160 that I've done ever since I left drama school when 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:46.800 i was you know, fifty five, So this is a 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:49.160 long time ago. Very good, Thank you. 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:53.760 Dominics does health tips, by the way, in his certain newsletters. 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:57.320 But one of the ways i'n't my living is doing 0:15:57.360 --> 0:16:02.360 voice shows. Now that has been kind of annihilated by AI, 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:06.120 and so that industry is thirty percent of what it was. 0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:10.840 I write my finite flying Frisbee substack, but I use 0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:14.880 AI all the time to get air to proof edit it. 0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:17.840 For me. So what you used to do John at 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:21.080 a time you're out of a hand job, I get it. 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:23.560 It writes really good titles. It writes much better titles 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:26.560 than I do I use. I get the picture at 0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:29.400 the top of the article designed by AI. So I'm 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:33.040 reducing work for graphic designers. But then at the same 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:35.280 time I would never have used a graphic designer. So 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:40.880 it's created something that I make my unacceptable music videos, 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:43.240 and the guy who I make the unacceptable music videos, 0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:46.320 we both use AI like absolutely mad. So at the 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:50.400 same time as losing me work, it's also made me 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:56.200 more productive. And if you go back to Choices Canterbury Tales, 0:16:56.280 --> 0:17:00.800 when however, any many people, each of varying walk to 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:05.480 Canterbury in whenever it was thirteen and eighty something. Of 0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:09.240 those twenty nine or thirty jobs, I think twenty six 0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:13.399 of those jobs still exist today. Now, obviously the nature 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:16.639 of those jobs has changed, but the job still exists. 0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:21.160 And that's been through industrial revolutions, digital revolutions. Goodness knows what. 0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:26.000 So I put it to you that while work will change, 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:29.800 there will still be most jobs, just the nature of 0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:30.840 those jobs will change. 0:17:30.920 --> 0:17:32.960 I think that's very fair every time there is a 0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:35.280 big revolution, we assume that everyone will end up unemployed 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:37.120 and new jobs just sort of come out of the woodwork. 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:39.399 There's always something And if you think about the jobs 0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:41.080 that many of our children do today, we can have 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:42.280 imagined them thirty years ago. 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:43.200 So that's a fair point. 0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:44.280 I think that's valid. 0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:47.480 But this is all about the transition speed because the 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:51.000 humans in evate will always be kind of learning new tricks. 0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:53.479 But it's how fast you can move which is the customer. 0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:57.000 Before we leave AI, because we do like to all 0:17:57.040 --> 0:18:01.640 well investments, John, should we be investing in AI related shocks? 0:18:02.320 --> 0:18:02.520 Oh? 0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:05.600 I mean, honestly, I think the problem the only problem 0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:08.359 with AI is the is the valuations, isn't it. And 0:18:08.400 --> 0:18:10.840 I mean in the last couple of days even we've 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:14.000 had a bit of a drop and the big AI 0:18:14.160 --> 0:18:19.480 stocks again now, I mean they've got the momentum behind them. 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:23.080 Everyone's spending an awful lot of money. My feeling is 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:26.200 that it's probably you know, a Capex bubble and it'll 0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:29.080 pop and it's probably a wee bit late to start 0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:31.840 buying in the video now. But at the same time, 0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:35.639 you know it's you can't it's probably what's having a 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:38.080 bit of exposure and your way. 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:41.879 To what Richard has said, then every stock is in 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:42.840 AI stock. 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:46.000 Well except for the ones that go busts. 0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:49.120 If every company is going to massively enhance its productivity, yeah, 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:51.080 then we're gonna see profit imagines go up across the board. 0:18:51.080 --> 0:18:52.360 And doesn't matter what you invest. 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:59.679 In, don't that's not yeah, and I certainly these are 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:03.119 mass the valuable companies, but it's the valuations now which 0:19:03.480 --> 0:19:07.400 for some they're they're so enormous. I mean, I want 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:10.399 you look at Palanteer as an example. The valuations are 0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:13.679 so high that you're using that as a bubble trigger, 0:19:13.720 --> 0:19:16.320 which says, Okay, I'll wait for that to come off 0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:18.800 and I'll sell, but because you're expecting a shock. 0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:22.880 The US is currently about seventy percent of the MASCI wordldendix, 0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:26.280 which is why you know, personally speaking, I think that's 0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:29.400 too much. And it's not always been like that. I mean, 0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:33.480 Japan at one point was something iculous but not quite 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:37.800 seventy bits high. And I think the MASCI seventy percent 0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:39.800 of the US. And then the next one is Japan 0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:41.200 we are about five, and the next one is the 0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:43.520 UK We're about three and a half, So yeah, okay, 0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:44.400 well that's interesting. 0:19:44.800 --> 0:19:47.960 And about of our customers, so we've got about half 0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:52.280 a million and in terms of single stocks about twenty 0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:57.120 percent are non UK, eight UK and twenty percent are international, 0:19:57.240 --> 0:19:59.480 of which ninety percent is US. 0:20:00.440 --> 0:20:01.960 Okay, I say, we're gonna have to move on to 0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:05.399 do another quote where we're already running out of quote time, John. 0:20:07.240 --> 0:20:10.960 I mean, this is sort of downstream you're talking about, Richard, 0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:14.960 but this is Adam Smith talking about the state of 0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:17.720 the public finances. And this is back and obviously when 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:22.360 malt Nations published seventeen seventy six in Great Britain, from 0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:24.600 the time that we had first recourse to the ruin, 0:20:24.680 --> 0:20:28.600 this expedient of perpetual funding, the reduction of the public 0:20:28.640 --> 0:20:31.400 debt and time of peace has never borne any proportion 0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:37.119 to its accumulation in time of war. So nothing's really nothing. 0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:38.160 To be changed, obviously. 0:20:39.720 --> 0:20:42.040