1 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:06,560 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the 2 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: global economy to you. Now, if you've spent much time 3 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: hanging out with economists, you'll know they come in two 4 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 1: main flavors, macro and micro. Macro economists get most of 5 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:25,440 Speaker 1: the attention talking about their forecast for growth or inflation, 6 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: which usually wrong. You'll also find them sitting inside central 7 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: banks deciding whether to change interest rates. I had a 8 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: conversation about the future of monetary policy with four distinguished 9 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: macro economists this week. I'll play it to you a 10 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:41,159 Speaker 1: bit later, but you could argue it's the micro economists, 11 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 1: working away quietly on small bits of the economy who 12 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 1: have done most to change the world. Three who can 13 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 1: definitely make that claim are the development economists Abudget Banergy 14 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: and esther Do Flow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 15 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: m I T and Michael Kramer at Harvard, who this 16 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 1: week all shared the twin nineteen Nobel Prize for Economics. 17 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: The day after that news broke, I spotted Michael Kramer 18 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: at the Bloomberg offices here in London and lured him 19 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 1: into the green room for a quick interview. I started 20 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 1: by asking him to explain exactly what the award was 21 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: for Michael, you were awarded the prize or the three 22 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 1: of you were awarded the prize for your development of 23 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 1: new ways to study and help the world's port and 24 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 1: reduce poverty. You know, just for those who aren't familiar 25 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: with your work or that, I expect a lot more 26 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 1: are now this week. And what was the contribution that 27 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: the three of you and this whole development in the 28 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: discipline have made. What was different about what your approach? 29 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: So I think I think that's really is an award 30 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 1: for the field as a whole, and it's wonderful to 31 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 1: be sharing it with our abitude and esther. But the 32 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: area of economics, which focuses on developing countries, has really 33 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: made tremendous progress and in recent decades, and one element 34 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: of that has been trying to approach questions with some 35 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 1: of the same empirical methods that are used in medicine. 36 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: So that's some randomized controlled trials is one element of 37 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: this um and that allows rigor and isolating the impact 38 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 1: of a particular program from other factors, which is often 39 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 1: very difficult in social sciences. That's I think that's really 40 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: only one element of what's being recognized here. There's it's 41 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: it's partly that intellectual rigor, but it's not intellectual rigger 42 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: by itself. It's trying to combine this with addressing practical problems. 43 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: I've done a lot of work on education, health, but 44 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 1: people in this field are working on a wide range 45 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 1: of areas that everything from finance to ways to try 46 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: to reduce corruption, and and they're engaged in a very 47 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 1: practical way with people on the ground, whether that's the 48 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 1: farmers or the school children, or the teachers, or nonprofit 49 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 1: organizations that are working in this area, or developing country governments, 50 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: which are really a key player in this area. And 51 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 1: that on the ground engagement means that we have to 52 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: sometimes think beyond the standard models of economics. And a 53 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 1: big fan of the standard models of economics. I think 54 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:21,360 Speaker 1: they're wonderful, but they don't explain everything. And you know, 55 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 1: occasionally we need to bring in ideas from psychology or 56 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:27,639 Speaker 1: or other places, and being pacetious, we have a lot 57 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 1: to learn from other other areas, and engaging with problems 58 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 1: on the ground and talking to people and seeing the 59 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 1: data very clearly reminds us of that and forces us 60 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,119 Speaker 1: I think in a very good way to to think 61 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: more broadly and and think outside the box of of 62 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 1: just our own The models that were used to give 63 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 1: me an example of a sort of a classic application 64 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: of this technique. I'll give it an example on this 65 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: from my own own research. I was. I spent a 66 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: year teaching secondary boll in Kenya after I finished my 67 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 1: undergraduate degree, and then when I got involved in this 68 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: area of work UM, one of the projects that I 69 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 1: was looking at was a project that was providing textbooks. 70 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:16,480 Speaker 1: Too many kids at that time in Kenya didn't have textbooks. 71 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 1: And there's a debate in economics of education. Some people 72 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: say well we need more resources, other people say well 73 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: we need better incentives for teachers, and these are this 74 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 1: is sort of the debate that economists have focused on. 75 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 1: So this was a case of providing more resources providing textbooks, 76 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 1: and I was really shocked when I saw the results 77 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 1: which suggested that the textbooks were not improving test scores 78 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 1: for kids. And I thought about it. Because I taught 79 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 1: in this area, I had some context and because I 80 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: was dealing with teachers and students and the nonprofit organization 81 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: realized that many kids have fallen behind where they correct 82 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: of us because they missed a lot of school from illness. 83 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 1: Their teachers have been missing school um the text school 84 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: and Kenya has taught in English. After you get past 85 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 1: the first few grades, kids were learning in the third 86 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 1: language typically, So in that type of situation, it's very 87 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: easy to fall behind. If you fall behind, then it's 88 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:22,360 Speaker 1: very hard to to benefit from the from textbooks which 89 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 1: are assuming that you're on track. So this is not 90 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 1: something that's against economics. It's just something from outside of economics. 91 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 1: It's something that every teacher would know about and think about, 92 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 1: but the economists don't often think about. And by learning 93 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: from this case, then other people were able to go 94 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 1: on and try a whole range of different approaches, and 95 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,600 Speaker 1: it was found that, for example, providing remedial education to 96 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,039 Speaker 1: kids who are behind can help them catch up with 97 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: the creekum to the point where they can then follow 98 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 1: along with the other kids and learn much more. And 99 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 1: so they've been tremendous gains in our understanding from that 100 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 1: and those are starting to if policy as well. When 101 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 1: you talk about applying the same sort of randomized control 102 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 1: testing and empirical approach to development economics and anti poverty programs, 103 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: that has been applied have been applied previously in medical science. 104 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 1: I mean a lot of people listening would say, well, 105 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 1: why was that such a new idea? I mean, it 106 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 1: does seem what I mean, I was Harvard in the 107 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: in the mid nineties and it was I guess we're 108 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,280 Speaker 1: just sort of starting to see some of this approach. 109 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 1: But development economics, certainly from the outside, was still quite 110 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 1: an old fashioned discipline. Why did it take so long 111 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 1: for what seems like quite an obvious idea to take hold? 112 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,720 Speaker 1: That's a great question. UM. I think there are a 113 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 1: lot of boundaries between disciplines and UM and you know, 114 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:49,359 Speaker 1: it's just saying in another context, how their benefits to 115 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: breaking those down? And you know this, I guess the 116 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 1: use of randomized trialsers another area where I think economics 117 00:06:56,080 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 1: has benefited alike from ideas that were pioneered in other disciplines. UM. 118 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 1: I think a key step was also working with nonprofit 119 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 1: organizations that were interested in evaluating their programs. So there 120 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: there are some very large scale government programs that have 121 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 1: been designed this way. So Mexico introduced conditional cash transfers. 122 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 1: So this is a program that provides assistance to families 123 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: if they have their kids in school and if they 124 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: are getting basic medical care, and they evaluated that very rigorously. 125 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: They found big impacts, and that program is scaled across 126 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 1: much of the developing world. So there are some examples 127 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: where large government programs having done this, but nonprofit organizations 128 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: they can't serve the entire population. There are many different 129 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: nonprofit organizations trying very many different things, so working with 130 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: them has been a great opportunity to learn about the 131 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: whole host of the effectiveness of a whole host of problems, 132 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 1: and increasingly not just to learn whether things are working, 133 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 1: but to better measure how they're how they're working, and 134 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 1: why they're working. And that helps us develop a more 135 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: general understanding from which we can we can begin to 136 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: have a better have a better chance of understanding whether 137 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: something would work. In another context, people are always interested 138 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: in how you hear about these things. We had You 139 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 1: were in London, How did you get the cool to 140 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 1: find out you'd won the Nobel Project. I was in London. 141 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: I wasn't in the US, so they had trouble contacting. 142 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: I got a actually I was riding my bike and 143 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 1: got off my bike and got a scape message and 144 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 1: I said called me orally nothing else. And I had 145 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 1: been getting Skype or messages saying called me urgently, which 146 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,560 Speaker 1: were scams, so I some people knew it was Nobel. 147 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 1: We just in general it's a it's a new modern 148 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 1: fishing technique because you you create a email like somebody 149 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 1: you know, you look up an organizational chart and uh, 150 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 1: purportedly from my department had the same called me urgently, 151 00:08:57,200 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 1: and then I'm stuck and I need twenty dollars or something. 152 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:04,319 Speaker 1: And so I was preparing an email to this due 153 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 1: to say, if they assume this is efficient scam, but 154 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 1: if it's real, let me know. And then I got 155 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 1: a knock at my door and I found out it 156 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: was it was actually real Andy. And so then did 157 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 1: you have a conversation with the Nobel Committee or eventually 158 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 1: I passed on my contact information in London and twenty 159 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 1: minutes later I got a car from them. So exciting. 160 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 1: I mean, I think one thing is quite nice is 161 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: we often are talking and I'm often as economics talking 162 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 1: about macro economics and the way that standard macro economic 163 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: advice is being ignored, whether it's by Donald Trump or 164 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 1: by anybody that's economists don't feel very they're having much 165 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 1: of an impact on the world at the moment at 166 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:48,440 Speaker 1: that kind of macro level. I guess what was nice 167 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,719 Speaker 1: about this award is it reminds us that the micro economics, 168 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: the ideas, um you know, people are going out in 169 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: the field trying to make things better, you know, still 170 00:09:57,040 --> 00:09:59,199 Speaker 1: alive and well, and there's really made a big difference. 171 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 1: I think it's it really is. I think there's you know, 172 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:05,680 Speaker 1: there's a lot of a lot of organizations, whether it's 173 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: governments or nonprofits or businesses, have practical problems and they're 174 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,319 Speaker 1: trying to come up with solutions. And I think at 175 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 1: the microeconomic level, economists are increasingly working with those organizations 176 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:22,079 Speaker 1: and and trying to provide assistance in finding those solutions, 177 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 1: and we're we are seeing the impact in them in 178 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 1: the in the world. Um. You know. Another example of 179 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: this would be trying to get out basic preventive healthcare, 180 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: whether it's in developing world, whether that's mosquito nuts or 181 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 1: water treatment solution or or uh pells to treat worms. 182 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:43,840 Speaker 1: And there had been a feeling that it was important 183 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 1: to charge for these and the people would in value 184 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,199 Speaker 1: the goods unless you charge for them. And what's shown 185 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 1: up time after time in empirical analysis. Is you just 186 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 1: get a huge boost and participation when you make this 187 00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:58,719 Speaker 1: available for free. And there's been a huge shift in 188 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:02,439 Speaker 1: policy in that direction. And I don't want to claim 189 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 1: that the evidence is it's entirely responsible for that, but 190 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 1: I think it played a row, and I think has 191 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: had a tremendous impact done on many people's health around 192 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: the world. After that, it seems like a step down 193 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 1: to think about central banks. But the best way to 194 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,680 Speaker 1: raise the amount of economic hardship and misery in the 195 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: world would be to have another global financial crisis. At 196 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,440 Speaker 1: this point, it's central banks were largely relying on to 197 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:37,079 Speaker 1: prevent that from happening. How you stop a recession from 198 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: turning into another crisis and what exactly we should be 199 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:43,079 Speaker 1: asking our central banks to do will both be on 200 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: the agenda at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Beijing 201 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,720 Speaker 1: in November. We also got into it this week at 202 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 1: the annual conference the UK Society of Professional Economists in London, 203 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 1: co host near by Bloomberg Economics, for a panel on 204 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 1: the future of central banking. I had with me Claudio Borrio, 205 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,079 Speaker 1: head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Central 206 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,960 Speaker 1: Bankers Central Bank, the Bank for International Settlements in Basel. 207 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: We also had Sir Charlie been Foreman, Chief Economist and 208 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,439 Speaker 1: Deputy Governor for the Bank of England. Dame Kate Barker 209 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,319 Speaker 1: used to sit on the Bank of England's Interest Rate Committee, 210 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 1: and Graham Turner, founder of the Economic Research Group GFC. 211 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 1: He's also an important advisor to the UK Labor Party. 212 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: We started by all talking about whether central banks had 213 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: the tools to respond to the next recession. Graham Turner, 214 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 1: you've talked about we should be more optimistic on the 215 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: sort of structural changes underway. I know that you've taken 216 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 1: a good look at you know, how we might be 217 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 1: continuing to under price or overstate the inflation rate on 218 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 1: software and all these things, and I think there'd be 219 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 1: some sympathy for that here. But you've also stated that 220 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,560 Speaker 1: him it could pose this seismic threat to that, to 221 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,439 Speaker 1: the to the rates of investment. So how can you 222 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 1: be optimistic if you think everything is going to be 223 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 1: turned upside down quite soon? Well, look, I don't know 224 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:12,199 Speaker 1: when climate change is going to really start to hit. 225 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 1: I mean, it's only thing I have an impact in 226 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 1: the next year or years. We might have with Elizabeth Warren, 227 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 1: we could happen in a year. But then you know, 228 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 1: center banks are going to have to I mean, independence 229 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: is going to become irrelevant. I mean we've got to 230 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 1: get away from this idea that you know, independence it's 231 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: worth anything, because ultimately, you know, it's about doing the 232 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 1: right decisions, working with politicians, and you know, we are 233 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 1: going to have to be thinking about direct measures in 234 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 1: the financial system to price I mean, you know Mark Knee, 235 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: he said, well the markets will start pricing risk companies 236 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 1: that embrace carbon targets. Well, maybe they won't. I mean 237 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:52,559 Speaker 1: the market didn't price mortgages correctly in two thousand and eight, 238 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:56,679 Speaker 1: so maybe they won't price carbon emission correctly. So maybe 239 00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 1: what the Bank of England needs to be doing. And 240 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 1: you know there's some people doing something to be good. 241 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 1: Well I was wanted to see somebody of either and 242 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 1: when some of the work they're doing is fantastic, but 243 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:08,079 Speaker 1: massive resources need to be put towards modeling the climate changers, 244 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:10,839 Speaker 1: talking and working with the scientists, and said, what happens 245 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 1: if the stock market goes down a long way because 246 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 1: of climate changs? What does that do to pension funds. Therefore, 247 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 1: should we be saying to the politicians that we should 248 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: be prepared to really ramp up the investment. And you know, 249 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 1: some people talk about green krewey. I don't even know 250 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 1: we need to do green kwy because ultumably I think 251 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 1: the market will fund a lot of this investment if 252 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 1: they can see that it makes economic sense. Anyway, well, 253 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: I think you've opened up lots of things for discussion. 254 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 1: I don't know who wants who wants to respond, I 255 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: mean claudy that I guess there's two things there. I 256 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: mean threats to Bank of England, to Central Bank independence 257 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: are clearly coming from lots of directions, and this is 258 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 1: one potential one. But there was this also the claim 259 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 1: that many people would share, which is that things, the 260 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: sort of underlying structure of the economy and the tech 261 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 1: knowledgy that's coming through is a source for optimism, not 262 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 1: only pessimism. If there is something I'm optimistic about this technology, 263 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 1: I think that I was never on the pessimistic side 264 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: when people like Gordon was saying or nothing worth inventing 265 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 1: has been invented over the last ten fifteen years. You 266 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: just look around and it's extraordinary the pace, the pace 267 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 1: of technology. Now, one implication of that, though, is that, um, 268 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 1: if technology, together with globalization and the like, our factors 269 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 1: that are driving down prices, then there is a big 270 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 1: issue about the targets that we now have two percent 271 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: targets and the fact that, well, we need to hit 272 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: them because otherwise our credibility is at stake. Um Volker 273 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 1: himself was asking questions about this because the concern one 274 00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 1: concern is that if these forces are those that are 275 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 1: having inflation down, these are good forces. They're not bad forces. 276 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 1: They basically in the support growth. They support economic expansion, 277 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 1: which is why unemployment in parties are slow as it is. UM. 278 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 1: But then if people are so concerned with inflation being 279 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: below target and they try very very hard to hit 280 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 1: the target, even if these forces are at work, then 281 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 1: you have the risk of running out for maneuver. So 282 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:35,920 Speaker 1: I think that that's an important aspect that was raised, 283 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: and I think that bears some reflection. Okay, you were 284 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: frowning through some of what Graham said. Well, I suppose 285 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 1: I'm always wondering what's the responsible of central banks and 286 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: what's the responsibility of other people. So I completely agree 287 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 1: that climate change is an enormous risk. Whether the central 288 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 1: bank is the best place to deal with it and 289 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 1: work out pricing and markets or not time I'm not sure. 290 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 1: I'm also sort of slightly worried, as they chair of 291 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 1: a pension fund that after Charlie Snatuy, I'm got any 292 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 1: lefter anything left. I mean, you have to buy because 293 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 1: he's bought it all. And also we may we may 294 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,680 Speaker 1: be kind of investing in the investing in the wrong things. 295 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 1: But I mean the market is very busy at the 296 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 1: moment repricing different repricing different assets according to the risks 297 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 1: of climate chains. We're all falling over ourselves in the 298 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 1: investment world. Define green, define green investments and put our 299 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 1: put our money into them. But I want to go 300 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 1: back to a point at the beginning which I agree with, 301 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:31,880 Speaker 1: which is that you asked us, you know how we 302 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 1: deal if we need to restimulate the economy. But I 303 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 1: agree that today in the UK, I don't feel we 304 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: do have a great need to restimulate the economy, given 305 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,880 Speaker 1: how low, given how low unemployment is, I don't feel 306 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 1: that we're an economy which has got a lot of 307 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 1: spare resources. The issue is of course a supply side issue. 308 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 1: We're not getting the right growth out of those resources, 309 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 1: and that's a very difficult thing for central bank to tackle. 310 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: It seems to me much more the territory of micro policy. Charlie, Yeah, 311 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 1: I think there's a real danger here of expecting central 312 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:08,679 Speaker 1: banks to do things beyond their their natural territory. Um. 313 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:12,680 Speaker 1: The other thing to be said is that I don't 314 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:16,400 Speaker 1: think it's right to think about central banks as being independent. 315 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: That's been I think one of the errors of the 316 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 1: academic literature that it's focused on institutional independence. But all 317 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:28,159 Speaker 1: central banks and creatures of the state, and they have 318 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 1: certain powers that are delegated to them along different dimensions 319 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 1: of which they may have different degrees of independence. And 320 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 1: it seems to me that these sort of climate change 321 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 1: type issues, which I agree incredibly important, but there are 322 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: actually ones who really government taught to be in the lead, 323 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: with central banks assisting h and having obviously a particular 324 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 1: role in areas that impinge on financial markets, which is 325 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: exactly where Mark Karney has been leading the Bank of 326 00:18:56,840 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 1: England's efforts, and because they clearly are implications if you 327 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,439 Speaker 1: have stranded assets and stuff like that. But this is 328 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,680 Speaker 1: something that's much bigger than that, and it really seems 329 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: to me that something it has to be dritten by 330 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 1: the political actors and it's something obviously that has to 331 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 1: be tackled at international So so I see the central 332 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,159 Speaker 1: banks as a subsidiary player here rather than the leader. 333 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: I think the center bank hashed to take her a 334 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 1: much more leading role because if the Bank of England 335 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 1: in the two thousand and seven the time around eaven 336 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:30,639 Speaker 1: two thousand and four on time round to the Labor 337 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 1: Party and said, you know what, this light touch regulation 338 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 1: of the city you're promoting, just letting all this more 339 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 1: lending happened in a way that it was what were seeing. 340 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 1: You know, they might have actually put pressure on the politicians. 341 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: And I think that, you know, because that's in the 342 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,680 Speaker 1: Bank of England's territory. So stuff that's doing financial markets 343 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:57,399 Speaker 1: and regulation is entirely appropriate for the bank to be 344 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: and to send messages to the jury or whoever when 345 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,879 Speaker 1: they have concerts, and indeed the FPC has been set 346 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: up to do precisely that. But the climate change agenda 347 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 1: is a much much bigger one. That's that of course 348 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 1: is broad. I mean, of course it's going to involve 349 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 1: the government. Of course it's going to involve the politician, 350 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:18,640 Speaker 1: but when we're just talking about reward is the role 351 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 1: of monetary policy. And my point really was, I think 352 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:25,359 Speaker 1: there's an obsession we're focusing on the next GDP number, 353 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,159 Speaker 1: the pre my surveys. I'm not about you guys, but 354 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 1: I get tired of looking at pure my surveys to 355 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: go up and down, and one about where we should 356 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 1: do a little bit more que eat and keeping economy 357 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 1: where the unemployment rate is already you know for to 358 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 1: year low is utterly pointless and involevant. For me, the 359 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: most exciting part of what I do in my job 360 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 1: as a market forecast is looking at what companies are 361 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:48,399 Speaker 1: going to deliver big step changes in productivity. And I 362 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:50,400 Speaker 1: think that's my point about the report what I did 363 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 1: for the Labor Party, which is that you know, to 364 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 1: get central banks thinking about productivity is really important. And 365 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,680 Speaker 1: of course they about I've got with our no productive 366 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,439 Speaker 1: is not to do a sanra about why not? You know, 367 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:03,960 Speaker 1: why can't they be thinking about what sectors do we 368 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: need to be supported to drive faster productivity? You know, 369 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 1: why can't we be talking to the financial system and 370 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 1: saying to a particular about why is it your focus 371 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,920 Speaker 1: is on more and consumer credit and not on supporting 372 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 1: companies that are desperate for capital or help us to 373 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:23,119 Speaker 1: become more productive. So you know, these are crucial decisions 374 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: which can't just be left for the politicians. And there 375 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 1: is something there is something in that which I think 376 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: is broad. You know, with something which is all of 377 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:34,119 Speaker 1: you would probably be be concerned about, which is the 378 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:38,679 Speaker 1: political The perception of monetary policy is going to be 379 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 1: increasingly important. I mean, has been very important in the 380 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 1: last few years and could be very important in the 381 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: monetary policy response to the next crisis, could be very important. 382 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 1: If that there could the argument could be, well, you 383 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:56,879 Speaker 1: don't mind having massive redistributive and politically consequential implications of 384 00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,399 Speaker 1: what you do if it's only about giving money to 385 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 1: rich people who owned stocks having their asset prices pushed 386 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,359 Speaker 1: up by QUI. But when it's about giving money to 387 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 1: poor people, suddenly you get cold feet. I mean, isn't 388 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 1: there a bit of a don't you have to actually 389 00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 1: start thinking about the other side of some of the 390 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 1: your your hands are already dirty, would be the argument, 391 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,119 Speaker 1: So why why now be so concerned about the politics 392 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,680 Speaker 1: I think that the distributional and consequence of I think 393 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,840 Speaker 1: people are absolutely right to be concerned about it was 394 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,960 Speaker 1: appropriate in the emergence. But you've talked about how you 395 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,360 Speaker 1: would do you could you would do more. On the contrary, 396 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 1: I was saying, the technical limits are a long way off, 397 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 1: but long before you get to that, you have the 398 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:48,360 Speaker 1: political economy considerations and also the distributional concerns, and there 399 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 1: isn't the democratic support for that sort of action. And 400 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: I think monetary policy always has distributional effects, even in 401 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 1: normal times, but normally sort of short lived. It swings 402 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 1: and roundabout. What's been unusual about the last decade is 403 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,160 Speaker 1: that the period of low interest rates has just gone 404 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 1: on so long and people have been conscious of those 405 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 1: distributional consequences. The other things you said is QUI works 406 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:19,719 Speaker 1: by driving our passet prices, so it's very conspicuously benefits 407 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 1: those who are asset rich at the benefits of those 408 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 1: who don't have assets and want to acquire them, like 409 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 1: the young. And I think that's something which shouldn't really 410 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,399 Speaker 1: be left in the hand of central banks. It's something 411 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:35,120 Speaker 1: that finance ministers, treasuries and politicians need to own, not 412 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,159 Speaker 1: the MPC. But the central banks will then end up 413 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 1: will still have to be implicated in some of that, 414 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 1: potentially finding the assurance that but they would be that 415 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,680 Speaker 1: they would be doing it as agents if if governments 416 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 1: say yes, we're willing to accept those distributional consequences and 417 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 1: they can use their fiscal tools to offset them if 418 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 1: they don't like them. If that's possible, but you have 419 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:03,880 Speaker 1: to have a world I think the politicians and fifthal 420 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: authorities say yeah, I'm willing to accept those distribution consequences 421 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:13,359 Speaker 1: as the cost of using this particular monetary instrument to 422 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 1: fight a significant DOWNTA. Absolutely agree with what Graham says 423 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 1: about you know, we shouldn't be worrying about little twiddles 424 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 1: in activity and stabilizing that. Those people here who have 425 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 1: to be very concerned, well, well, well they do. But 426 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:32,440 Speaker 1: but the exam question you setters was a significant doubt, 427 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 1: but possibly one that wasn't the replay of the financial crisis, 428 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,919 Speaker 1: whether it's a Brexit, no deal, whatever, but something that 429 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 1: requires a policy response is the ammunition there. My concern 430 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:56,680 Speaker 1: is that there is already a large expectations gap which 431 00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:01,159 Speaker 1: is undermining central banks legitimacy between what they are expected 432 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 1: to deliver and what they can deliver, They're expected to 433 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,760 Speaker 1: make sure that inflation is a two percent. They're expected 434 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 1: to make sure that the economies that fun employment, they're 435 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: expected to make sure of that financial stabilities there. Now 436 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 1: they have a clear limit. It's already a very ambitious limit. 437 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 1: I think that adding further stuff onto that is not 438 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 1: the right way to go. I think there is an 439 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:29,159 Speaker 1: issue about clarifying what the various responsibilities are of the 440 00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 1: government and the Central Bank, and unless we do that, 441 00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 1: I think in a few years time we'll find ourselves 442 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: in a place where we would not like to be, 443 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,360 Speaker 1: just as we have with a number of the measures 444 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,199 Speaker 1: that have been taken in the past. I mean, I 445 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 1: very much agree with what Charlie said about about distribution. 446 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,919 Speaker 1: We had because we didn't really think at the beginning 447 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,320 Speaker 1: this was going to be so prolonged, so we didn't 448 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,400 Speaker 1: really think about the distributional consequences, and nor I think 449 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,919 Speaker 1: that the government think about how to how to upset them. 450 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 1: But I think at the point I would make no 451 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: a familiar point to Charlie that although the distributional consequence 452 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,159 Speaker 1: asset price is kind of in your face, the distributional 453 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 1: consequence of rescuing people with unemployment are also pretty important, 454 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 1: but they're more hidden. People find that harder to link 455 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 1: in and and somehow central banks haven't tackled that properly 456 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,399 Speaker 1: talked about why why it is that it looks so 457 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 1: looks so in lates but some when people try to 458 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,200 Speaker 1: deny their distributional consequences of QUI, that's not right either. 459 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 1: Even some people at the Bank of England have done that. 460 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 1: Even some people at the Bank of England have done that. 461 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,600 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Stephanomics. We'll be back next week 462 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,680 Speaker 1: with more on the ground insights into the global economy. 463 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,359 Speaker 1: In the meantime, you can find us on the Bloomberg 464 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 1: Terminal website, app, or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd 465 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,359 Speaker 1: love it if you took the time to rate and 466 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,439 Speaker 1: review our show so it can reach more listeners. And 467 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,640 Speaker 1: for more news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics during the week, 468 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:58,320 Speaker 1: follow at Economics on Twitter, or you can also find 469 00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 1: me on at my Stephan mix. This episode was produced 470 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: by Magnus Hendrickson, with special thanks to Michael Kramer, Dame 471 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 1: Kate Barker, Claudio Borrio, Sir Charles Bean and Graham Turner, 472 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 1: David Beatty and the Society for Professional Economists. Our executive 473 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:20,600 Speaker 1: producer is Scott Laman and Francesco Levy is the head 474 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Podcast.